"Indelible in the hippocampus is the laughter"—Dr. Christine Blasey Ford

September 28, 2018 2:39 PM

After a chaotic morning of anteroom discussions, the Senate Judiciary Committee voted 11-10 along party lines to recommend Judge Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court (Roll Call). Senators Flake (R-AZ) and Murkowski (R-AK) joined Democrats in calling for a one-week delay while the FBI investigates the nominee. But would it make a difference if the FBI were to investigate Kavanaugh allegations? (NPR) What happens now? An FBI investigation lasting up to one week, but the Senate will move forward with a vote on Saturday on the Motion to Proceed. Here’s where Kavanaugh’s sworn testimony was misleading or wrong (Washington Post); every time Ford and Kavanaugh dodged a question, in one chart (Vox); every time Kavanaugh mentioned beer; the most telling moment: Kavanaugh goes after Sen. Klobuchar (Washington Post)

• Before the vote, Maria Gallagher and Ana Maria Archila confronted Sen. Flake in an elevator for five minutes: "Don’t look away from me," Gallagher told him. "Look at me and tell me that it doesn’t matter what happened to me, that you will let people like that go into the highest court of the land and tell everyone what they can do to their bodies." Gallagher has never told anyone about her assault before and never expected to be describing it to a US Senator in an elevator to be broadcast on national TV. Her mother called after seeing it on cable. (Daily Beast)

• A federal judge just ruled (pdf) (highlights) that Congressional Democrats have standing to bring their Foreign Emoluments Clause lawsuit against Trump as the result of his business with foreign governments. (Washington Post)

• 'It Was All Going Surprisingly OK Until the Press Conference': On Wednesday afternoon, having been laughed at by the U.N. General Assembly and chastised at the Security Council, Trump held his second solo Presidential press conference. Top 5 revelations; 5 lies; 7 memorable moments; 10 most astonishing moments; 63 most outrageous lines.

• In assorted Trump-Russia developments on Capitol Hill, the House Democrats' efforts to force a vote on the Special Counsel Independence and Integrity Act to protect Robert Mueller was defeated on the floor Thursday (The Hill); the House Intelligence Committee voted unanimously to send dozens of interview transcripts from its investigation of Russia meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for declassification before they are released to the public. (Reuters); and the House Judiciary Committee issued a subpoena Thursday for former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe’s memos and the supporting documents the FBI used in its FISA application on former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page. (Washington Post) Fusion GPS's Glenn Simpson rejected request from House Republicans for an interview, declaring the Republican-led investigation to be a "sham, factually, substantively and procedurally." Judiciary chair Goodlatte says he intends to issue a subpoena (Politico).

In Other Headlines:

• Michael Lewis revisits where it all began with Trump's transition in an excerpt from his upcoming book, The Fifth Riskp. ‘This Guy Doesn’t Know Anything’: The inside story of Trump’s shambolic transition team. "To which Trump replied: ''Fuck the law. I don’t give a fuck about the law. I want my fucking money.'' Bannon and Christie tried to explain that Trump couldn’t have both his money and a transition. ''Shut it down'', said Trump. ''Shut down the transition''."


• Embattled Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein saw his scheduled meeting with Trump postponed at the last minute. Trump now says, "My preference would be to keep him." In the interim, Rosenstein will privately meet with House Republicans who wish to question him about his comments last year about wearing a "wire" at the White House and invoking the 25th Amendment.

• White House press briefings fade amid Kavanaugh crisis (Politico), in which the White House Briefing Room sits unused, with just a single briefing since August 22nd. Sanders has recently pitched the idea of eliminating the cameras that show the press asking questions, considering just a single camera shot of the podium to avoid giving journalists screen time.

• 28,000 Public Servants Sought Student Loan Forgiveness. 96 Got It. (NY Times) as The Department Of Education Approved A Shockingly Low Number Of Federal Student Loan Forgiveness Applications (AboveTheLaw) and a GAO report found The Education Department has not provided enough guidance on the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program to borrowers or loan servicers (Inside Higher Ed). Should We All Calm Down About Rejected SLFP Applications? (Forbes blog)

• The Interior Department’s Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement has finalized a proposal (PDF) to roll back major offshore-drilling safety regulations that were put in place after the Deepwater Horizon oil rig disaster as part of the Trump administration's efforts to ease restrictions on fossil fuel companies and encourage domestic energy production. (NYT) Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke says in a speech to the oil and gas industry: "our government should work for you" (Vox)

• A Russian-born Houston-based oil executive who gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to support Donald Trump's run for president in 2016 offered to brief a high-ranking Russian official during the final months of the campaign. (NBC)

• Trump administration, in a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration environmental impact statement (PDF, sees a disastrous 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100 (Washington Post) To justify their decision to freeze federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks built after 2020, the impact statement says, "The impacts of the
Proposed Action and alternatives [...] would be small compared to the expected changes associated
with the emissions trajectories" on their climate change model.

• The Environmental Protection Agency is considering a reorganization that would merge the Office of Science Advisor and the Office of Science Policy, a step that critics say would diminish the role of scientists at the EPA (Bloomberg). The move comes one day after the EPA placed the (head of the Office of Children's Health Protection on paid administrative leave NYT). Dr. Etzel, a 30-year career employee, writes that she appears to be the "fall guy" in their plan to "disappear" the office. (BuzzFeed)

• The Administration's proposed new "Public Charge" rule would dramatically impact legal immigration by restricting low-income immigrants, barring immigrants from green cards based on the use of SNAP or Medicaid (Vox). Immigration lawyer Greg Siskind provides a detailed summary of the rule's provisions. The rule would require public charge bonds from some immigrants, which would add additional financial barriers.

• Alexandra Petri:
It is very difficult to get the train to stop

You can contact your senators at the Capitol Hill switchboard [phone] or via FaxZero's free service. And remember to check your voter registration.


As always, please consider MeFi chat for hot-takes and live-blogging breaking news, the current MetaTalk venting thread for catharsis and sympathizing, and funding the site if you're able. Also, for the sake of the ever-helpful mods, please keep in mind the MetaTalk on expectations about U.S. political discussion on MetaFilter. Many thanks to Doktor Zed, Box, the man of twists and turns, and tautological for their collaboration on this FPP.

posted by zachlipton (2315 comments total)

Flake gets to provide moral cover for his post-Congress move while still voting "yes" - I have to hand it to the old troll: I didn't see it coming.
posted by ryanshepard at 2:48 PM on September 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

Mod note: Folks, four days is A Bad Score. Let's try to keep the chatter/repetitive arguments/contextless reactions way down in this one.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 2:50 PM on September 28, 2018 [58 favorites]

And a reminder for survivors of assault, RAINN is here to help.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 2:50 PM on September 28, 2018 [22 favorites]

From the lived fast, died young old thread: The Senate Judiciary Committee will request that the administration instruct the FBI to conduct a supplemental FBI background investigation with respect to the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be an Associate Justice on the Supreme Court. The supplemental FBI background investigation would be limited to the current credible allegations against the nominee and must be completed no later than one week from today.

Wait wait. All they had to do all this time was ask?
posted by notyou at 2:51 PM on September 28, 2018 [7 favorites]

@robdelaney:
Channeled my anger at this Kavanaugh hearing into making a page where you can donate to all Democratic Senate candidates in tossup races with 1 click: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/demsretakesenate …
The GOP is the enemy of women, poor people, the disabled & people of color. Help defeat them
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:59 PM on September 28, 2018 [96 favorites]

ocschwar in the previous thread asked: Are FBI agents even allowed to "limit" their scope?

If they find evidence of law breaking are they allowed to just look the other way?

I think the limit is on what they can initially investigate; anything they find along that path should be fair game, but they can't, say, dig into his finances on the solid chance there's a non-sexual crime there, or just generally speculate that he committed assault five years ago or something.

Of course, this is complicated by the stuff that's already out there publicly. If the scope has been "limited" in a way that keeps Swetnick's story on the other side of the line, how do they maintain that? Literally the whole country knows her affadvit's contents, so I'm not sure whether agents can can/can't pursue it, or conversely, can/can't choose to not pursue it. (I'm assuming for sake of pessimism that the White House will try to pre-emptively call Swetnick non-credible for purposes of this investigation.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:08 PM on September 28, 2018 [1 favorite]

Some other stories with some bearing on the current US & international economic and political picture that are currently somewhat eclipsed by the confirmation include the SEC filing charges against Elon Musk over the "funding secured" tweet, news of an even more invasive Fancy Bear UEFI-based malware suite, an NYT report on election insecurity (from two days ago) and a bust of a weird Russian front company with links to Fidesz (in Hungary, for access to EU markets) that was acquiring strategically important coastline property in Finland (along with decommissioned military vessels) on money laundering charges. Meanwhile Orban's government has teamed up with Italy's Salvini to continue to deepen EU conflict over immigration, and is helping Putin squeeze Ukraine.


Talk continues regarding the possibility of an intervention in Venezuela (an October surprise?). Less attention is being paid to the increasing instability of the Guatamalan government as (Trump-aligned) President Morales resists the authority of its Supreme Court, as well as outside pressure for governmental reform. (Morales was educated at the University of Texas and used to be a television comedian.) Yesterday that Supreme Court ruled that the country's former intelligence chief had comitted genocide and crimes against humanity.

I'm sure there's more but that's what I've managed to take note of, and remember, amidst the whirlwind.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:13 PM on September 28, 2018 [20 favorites]

Just a reminder that if you want to donate to Dem house candidates in overlooked, but increasingly competitive races where a small amount of $ can go a long way, consider the Great Slate! From the page:

Each of the candidates here is a first-time candidate with a credible path to victory, an enthusiastic team of volunteers running in a winnable district that has been neglected by the Democratic Party. These are the places where our support can flip a red seat blue!

In particular, J. D. Scholten is taking on troglodyte Steve King (the most openly white supremacist member of the house) in a race once written off as impossible.
posted by tarshish bound at 3:19 PM on September 28, 2018 [48 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh Once Said Polygraphs Are A Good Tool. Now He Says They’re Unreliable.

Christine Blasey Ford, as part of her extensive effort to convince lawmakers she is telling the truth about her allegation that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her when she was 15, voluntarily submitted to a polygraph exam in August. The results, released publicly on Wednesday, showed her answers were “not indicative of deception.” Polygraphs are extremely unreliable indicators of truthfulness — but they also happen to be a tool that Kavanaugh vouched for in one of his opinions on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit.
posted by Brian B. at 3:20 PM on September 28, 2018 [25 favorites]

I think the limit is on what they can initially investigate; anything they find along that path should be fair game, but they can't, say, dig into his finances on the solid chance there's a non-sexual crime there, or just generally speculate that he committed assault five years ago or something.

This is kind of an ad-hoc thing open to interpretation. Presumably if they find evidence of a crime, they will report that to the US Attorney they actually report to (or whoever else winds up running it in the DOJ). The US Attorney will choose what to do with it, including whether or not it should be reported to the Senate as a part of this "supplemental investigation," considering the intended limits.

I'm not sure whether a US Attorney would be compelled to turn over evidence of state crimes to a state official, or whether it's a judgment call. Someone should ask Preet.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:22 PM on September 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

Harry Enten: Three polls out this week with Nelson up at least 2 in FL. That race may be moving towards the fundamentals.

Justinian: yessssss
posted by Justinian at 3:24 PM on September 28, 2018 [17 favorites]

One thing's for sure - this is gonna be a long and noisy week. They're still going to do everything they can to confirm him, but a lot can happen in a few days. I honestly don't expect much from the FBI unless their hand is forced, which may happen (say, via something from Avenatti.)

The one I don't expect to hear much more from is Ford, and she has earned the rest. She's done so much in the last few days to change things with regard to society's view of sexual assault.
posted by azpenguin at 3:25 PM on September 28, 2018 [33 favorites]

The Senate just passed the Motion to Proceed on Kavanaugh's nomination by a voice vote and stands in recess until Monday.

----

@ZoeTillman: The ABA's Standing Committee on the Federal Judiciary, which reviews and rates judicial nominees, sent a letter today to Grassley and Feinstein making clear they're separate from ABA leadership (re: the letter calling for an FBI investigation).

Some conservatives think even the ABA's ratings are too liberal (Ed Whelan has a cameo in there, and guess what, he's being racist), but the ABA has fiercely tried to insist they are non-partisan in their recommendations. They're clearly worried about salvaging that.
posted by zachlipton at 3:25 PM on September 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

just another normal day, with the Senate Judiciary Committee's official Twitter account posting editorials from Fox News
posted by murphy slaw at 3:40 PM on September 28, 2018 [15 favorites]

Listen all y'all, it's GOP triage! Main House SuperPAC is cutting or ending all funding in the following seats:

NJ-02 (open)
PA-05 (open)
PA-06 (open)
CA-49 (open)
CO-06 (Coffman)
IA-01 (Blum)
PA-07 (open)
PA-17 (Rothfus)
VA-10 (Comstock)
MI-08 (Bishop)

Some of those were obviously dead (Comstock), but others like Bishop are really surprising people:

If Rs are really abandoning their own incumbents in *Trump* districts like #IA01 & #MI08, you know it's getting ugly. Likeliest Dem gain now more like 25-40 seats.

If people like #MI08 Bishop (R) & #NJ03 MacArthur (R) really are trailing well outside the MoE in Trump seats, the parties may need to take a fresh look at a whole next tier of districts.

posted by Chrysostom at 3:43 PM on September 28, 2018 [64 favorites]

Many Mainers protested today in the small plaza across the street from Senator Susan Collins' Portland office, and most of us visited her office. Her staff was outright hostile, frazzled and unhelpful, the police arrived because there were concerned constituents lining up in the hallway outside her office, attests were offered but I don't think anyone got arrested. Many people filled out comment cards and or made statements.

I feel like my hair might spontaneously ignite. If this dishonest, corrupt, predatory, country club fratboy gets approved, it could happen. Should my head asplode, Sen. Collins' office would be a fine location.
posted by theora55 at 3:44 PM on September 28, 2018 [83 favorites]

Some of those were obviously dead (Comstock)

Which is why I looked askance at this WaPo story from a few days back: "In a swingy Virginia suburb, can Republican Barbara Comstock out-hustle a blue wave?"

It's like me writing a story called "can the Cleveland Browns win the Super Bowl with grit?" The answer is no. If Comstock were to win it would mean a truly brutal night for Democrats.
posted by Justinian at 3:55 PM on September 28, 2018 [9 favorites]

Holy crap, Alexandra Petri took my breath away with this paragraph:

The presumption is that the train will not stop. The presumption is that you will be a scream thrown on the tracks. That it will require a great many of you to be thrown onto the tracks before the train will grind to a halt. It can never be just the one; it must be several at once. Someday we will know the precise conversion. We will tell them: Do not bother unless there are 20 others like you, because the train will continue, and you will be crushed.

If you didn't read it when it was posted in the last thread, and you didn't read it when it was posted at the top of this thread, go read it now.
posted by fedward at 3:55 PM on September 28, 2018 [158 favorites]

Is it officially weird yet that Kavanaugh hasn't issued a statement on the FBI investigation? Wouldn't we expect at least a perfunctory "As I said in my hearing yesterday, I welcome the chance to clear my good name" by now?
posted by gerryblog at 4:15 PM on September 28, 2018 [9 favorites]

Is it officially weird yet that Kavanaugh hasn't issued a statement on the FBI investigation? Wouldn't we expect at least a perfunctory "As I said in my hearing yesterday, I welcome the chance to clear my good name" by now?

He did a couple hours ago, though I don't think it made it to any of these threads since it wasn't that interesting: "I’ve done everything [Senators] have requested and will continue to cooperate."
posted by zachlipton at 4:21 PM on September 28, 2018 [1 favorite]

I've been seeing/reading "X senators to watch" (AP for example) that now name drop Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), who I haven't heard a lot of discussion about or from. I get it, Red State, tough re-election bid and such, but is she really one to truly worry about (like Manchin), or is it the case of if any one of Collins/Murkowski/Flake ultimately vote No, she will too?
posted by jpolorolu at 4:27 PM on September 28, 2018

Fire the writers.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:27 PM on September 28, 2018 [40 favorites]

I don't think any Democrat, even Manchin, wants to be the deciding vote (although if anyone would do it, it would be him).

If the GOP decides to confirm, I think people have long suspected Manchin and Heitkamp would vote yes as well.
posted by thefoxgod at 4:32 PM on September 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

Yes, the idea that votes are independent variables drives me a little batty. They aren't, especially around the inflection point
posted by Bovine Love at 4:35 PM on September 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

Democrats and moderate Republicans acting as cover for each other on Yes votes should not be cover for either.
posted by Artw at 4:52 PM on September 28, 2018 [20 favorites]

Anybody who votes YES on him is voting against the interests of at least half of their constituents.
posted by rhizome at 5:04 PM on September 28, 2018 [42 favorites]

A twitter thread on Richard Ojeda's account in which Chris Hayes apparently arranges a competition of physical strength and endurance between ex-Army Major and current candidate for Congress Richard Ojeda and ex-Titan and current lawyer and candidate for congress Colin Allred.

(Both Democrats. Ojeda's district is ruby, ruby red. Allred's is solidly establishment Republican but flipped like 20 points to go for Clinton.)
posted by Justinian at 5:04 PM on September 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

From the department of crossing timelines, guess who popped up in the middle of Sen. Flake's decision-making? Rod Rosenstein, who still has a job. Sen. Coons tells us that Flake wanted to speak to the FBI Director. And then Rod Rosenstein called him up for a private chat.
posted by zachlipton at 5:06 PM on September 28, 2018 [9 favorites]

I hope this isn't categorized as contextless chatter but I want to thank you all for the past two days (and more). It has been incredibly comforting to come into Metafilter for these posts. And a thanks to zacklipton for the work on this one :)
posted by bluesky43 at 5:10 PM on September 28, 2018 [74 favorites]

This is a great video from Ojeda running in West Virginia. I was blown away.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:13 PM on September 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

Holy crap, Alexandra Petri took my breath away

Dr. Ford: Even as she testified Thursday, Christine Blasey Ford kept apologizing. (“I’m sorry,” she said. “I can read fast!” she said. She was here to be “helpful,” she said.)

Such a powerful piece. and I know exactly how she feels.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:16 PM on September 28, 2018 [18 favorites]

That Kavanaugh hasn't withdrawn at this point shows all you need to know about his character.
posted by Max Power at 5:33 PM on September 28, 2018 [74 favorites]

Huh, that's interesting. Kavanaugh specifically says he did not drink *beer* to the point of blacking out. Well, then what *did* he drink, to the point of passing out?
posted by nat at 5:34 PM on September 28, 2018 [23 favorites]

Please take the time to check here and in the last thread before posting. Duplicates waste everyone’s time.
posted by greermahoney at 5:35 PM on September 28, 2018 [4 favorites]

The National Museum of American History apologizes for its National Drink Beer Day tweet, noting that it was not "sensitively timed."
posted by jgirl at 5:41 PM on September 28, 2018 [18 favorites]

Mod note: It's been an extremely intense couple of days for the mods, please do your very best to check for doubles, and try to avoid live-blogging, riffing, look-what-this-asshole-said, rehashing old fights, etc. We're all as emotionally wrung out from the actual politics of the last couple days as you all are, but we've also been dealing with insane volume in the politics threads and a lot of difficult behavior from stressed users. Please just take a second to think twice before posting, and think about how you're impacting other users (esp. survivors of sexual assault); this has been an extremely difficult couple days for a whole lot of people.
posted by Eyebrows McGee (staff) at 5:42 PM on September 28, 2018 [135 favorites]

I'm sure this has been mentioned above, but to reiterate: Quite apart from any evidence from anyone else, and purely on his statement to the committee on Thursday, if that was an audition for the job on the Supreme Court, then he failed. A person like that, a person who merely resembles that should not be in that position.
posted by Grangousier at 5:42 PM on September 28, 2018 [63 favorites]

That Kavanaugh hasn't withdrawn at this point shows all you need to know about his character.

He knows he’s a lock to be approved, come hell or high water. The Republicans showed us ages ago that character doesn’t mean squat so long as you do the party’s bidding.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:44 PM on September 28, 2018 [8 favorites]

The resistance to Donald Trump is not what you think (Other National Treasure Sarah Kendzior, Globe & Mail)

There is not, and has never been, a unified, hierarchical resistance in the United States – nor should there be. There are simply millions of Americans who know they deserve better. It is less a resistance than an insistence that privileged impunity will no longer stand. If there is a unifying theme, it is against corruption – a rallying cry for white-collar crime to finally be punished, a repudiation of policies that steal from the poor to line the pockets of predators. There are those who rage at senators who wish to promote a man repeatedly accused of sexual assault to the highest court in the country. That is not normal, and the resistance – regular people who ask for simple checks and balances on power – won’t stop fighting against it.

In the Trump era, fundamental American values – a government of, by and for the people; a republic with liberty and justice for all – have been redefined as radical demands. As I wrote in this newspaper in March, 2017, “What is now called resisting is often Americans simply helping others: a concept so alien to the Trump administration that it is labelled as subversive.” Little has changed since then except the scope of the problems. Questions that would have once seemed hyperbolic or absurd – is America becoming an autocracy, a theocracy, a Russian proxy state? – are now reasonable.

But the cavalcade of crises and lack of unilateral leadership has led some to label the resistance – and by extension, the Democrats – as disorganized or failing. This characterization is odd given the scale of political participation since Mr. Trump took power. Both 2017 and 2018 were marked by massive nationwide demonstrations: women’s rights in January, gun control in March, immigrant and refugee rights in June. Protesters numbered in the millions, more than during the Vietnam War, yet their efforts often did not make the front pages of American papers. The year 2018 was also marked by special elections and primaries with record-high turnout, with some districts Mr. Trump won now voting Democrat.

There is a sense that the midterms mark the end of something – maybe Mr. Trump’s unchecked domination over American political life; maybe the American experiment itself. The fact that we don’t know which imbues every day with as much heaviness as hope.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:46 PM on September 28, 2018 [89 favorites]

Something else that happened at the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday:

The UN General Assembly held its first high-level meeting on tuberculosis. The deadliest infectious disease is becoming drug-resistant
posted by homunculus at 5:47 PM on September 28, 2018 [35 favorites]

Justinian: "Ojeda's district is ruby, ruby red."

Cook has it as Lean R, though. We've seen some contradictory polling, but Ojeda is clearly going to make it much, much closer than Hillary did.
posted by Chrysostom at 6:05 PM on September 28, 2018 [8 favorites]

An American Spectacle Grabs Attention Overseas
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:10 PM on September 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

How Republicans Stole #MeToo: They're speaking the movement's language, but in defense of Brett Kavanaugh.

But it would be inaccurate to say, if Kavanaugh is confirmed, that Ford was thwarted by naked partisan interests alone. The most sinister part of yesterday’s hearing was the sight of Republicans insisting they did believe she had been assaulted, just not by Kavanaugh. (As Kavanaugh himself put it, “I’m not questioning that Dr. Ford may have been sexually assaulted by some person in some place at some time.”) One of the central premises of the #MeToo movement had been accepted and absorbed, but in such a way that its impact was neutered. Indeed, the saga of Kavanaugh saw the appropriation of several #MeToo tropes in the service of defending the accused, muddying the distinction between victim and perpetrator, the powerful and the powerless.

posted by homunculus at 6:14 PM on September 28, 2018 [16 favorites]

Speaking of sexual assault, this was agreed on in previous threads: please do not type out the most graphic and vivid details in thread. Bloodless facts like names and dates are fine.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 6:17 PM on September 28, 2018 [19 favorites]

NYT: Anita Hill to Christine Blasey Ford: ‘Don’t Do Anything That Will Dehumanize You’

From Professor Hill's talk in Houston today

Now a law professor at Brandeis University, Professor Hill spoke in measured terms, almost in a monotone. Dispassionately, she built a case against Judge Kavanaugh, based on the testimony Dr. Blasey had presented in Washington. She insisted that she had tried to keep an open mind while watching Dr. Blasey and Judge Kavanaugh, “but at the end of the day, I certainly believed her.”

“I was struck by the doctor’s openness to say how terrified she was to be there and talk about something that had had a profound impact, and knowing there would be hostility,” she said. “I was also impressed by how calm she was, how careful she was and how it affected her.”

As for Judge Kavanaugh, she noted that he had projected “anger, a lot of aggression.”

“No female candidate for a Supreme Court position would ever have the license” to speak with such irritation and fury, she said. “We still don’t allow women to cry or to be angry.”
posted by bluesky43 at 6:20 PM on September 28, 2018 [84 favorites]

Speaking of sexual assault, this was agreed on in previous threads: please do not type out the most graphic and vivid details in thread. Bloodless facts like names and dates are fine.

It's been a week. I should have put this in the FPP, but the LA Times has a helpful (and newly paywall-free) resource guide: If Christine Blasey Ford's testimony stirred up painful memories, here's where you can get help.

You can also help support RAINN if you're able to do so.
posted by zachlipton at 6:31 PM on September 28, 2018 [12 favorites]

The US government will keep the lights on until early December, CNBC reports: Trump Signs Spending Bill to Avoid Government Shutdown, Despite Frustrations Over Border Wall Funding

President Donald Trump on Friday signed a spending bill that will avert a government shutdown despite previously calling the measure "ridiculous" because it did not include funding for a wall along the southern border.

There had been some doubts about whether the president would sign the bill, raising the specter that funding for the government would lapse as early as Monday. But Trump tamped down on concerns from top Republicans in recent weeks, pledging that he would "keep the government open."

In a statement announcing that he signed the bill, the president said he "secured additional funding for border security" and claimed $1.6 billion would go toward building the border barrier. Trump also again made the unsubstantiated claim that Democrats "want drugs and crime to pour into our country."

Just last week, @realDonaldTrump was tweeting, "I want to know, where is the money for Border Security and the WALL in this ridiculous Spending Bill, and where will it come from after the Midterms?"
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:35 PM on September 28, 2018 [6 favorites]

It would be something if we took back the Senate and he never got to build his damn wall.
posted by Anticipation Of A New Lover's Arrival, The at 6:40 PM on September 28, 2018 [12 favorites]

The backstory (BuzzFeed) on Jeff Flake's (R-AZ) decision to ensure a week-long FBI investigation seems to involve true across-the-aisles friendship. Alan He and Ellen Uchimiya (CBS) interviewed Flake's close friend Chris Coons (D-De) about the day:

"My chief counsel [?] had written a long set of Senate remarks for me to give this morning. They were somewhat sharp. And you know, she was very, very upset by yesterday --- and I read it over and I looked at her and I said, 'Is this a speech to my friend, Jeff Flake? Or is this a speech to my caucus and history?' And we sort of looked it over and talked and she said, "Yeah, that's a speech to your caucus and to history." I said, I'm not giving up --- I'm persuading several senators."

You can watch Coons' full speech at C-span (2:24:30), and also see Flake (immediately after Coons finishes his remarks) give up his speaking slot and then leave the room, requesting Coons join him.

As the two leave the room, a barrage of camera clicks drowned out the words of the next speaker, Mike Crapo (R-ID), as he patiently explains to the Democrats why an FBI investigation would be so abnormal.
posted by pjenks at 6:43 PM on September 28, 2018 [41 favorites]

In reference to how much time and emotional labor is required to keep these threads running, may I suggest that for the couple of people wondering where money could be useful, I'm betting mefi could use some help paying for the ice surrounding the server what supports this never-ending meltdown of political mayhem.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:53 PM on September 28, 2018 [41 favorites]

It would be something if we took back the Senate and he never got to build his damn wall.

That’s what has to happen.
posted by AwkwardPause at 7:08 PM on September 28, 2018 [5 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate:

-- FL: Florida Chamber of Commerce poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 48-46 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- MT: Benenson poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 50-43 on GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 3.1%].

-- TX: Why the 538 model thinks Beto's got a shot.

** 2018 House:

-- The CLF, one of the main GOP House SuperPACs, announced it is cutting all spending in CO-06 and MI-08, as they start the process of triaging doomed districts. Election Twitter reaction was basically, "Whoa, that tier of districts is *required* if the GOP is going to hold onto the House."

-- MI-08: Public Opinion Strategies poll has GOP incumbent Bishop up 45-43 on Dem Slotkin [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Bishop campaign. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup] => Bishop pushed this out today, presumably in reaction the CLF move above. There hasn't been any recent public polling - a Slotkin internal had her up a few points - but Siena is in the field right now. The DCCC recently pulled their spending, too, so the higher ups seem to be in agreement for now.

-- AZ-08: Lake Research poll has GOP incumbent Lesko up 48-44 on Dem Tipirneni [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Tipirneni campaign. [Trump 58-37 | Cook: Solid R]

-- CA-22: Survey USA poll has GOP incumbent Nunes up 55-41 on Dem Janz [MOE: +/- 5.7%]. [Trump 52-43 | Cook: Solid R]

-- MT-AL: Same Benenson poll has GOP incumbent Gianforte up 46-45 on Dem Williams. [Trump 57-36 | Cook: Lean R]

-- NH-01: American Research Group poll has Dem Pappas up 55-33 on EdwardsGOP incumbent Sununu up 49-44 on Dem Kelly [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D]

-- NH-02: American Research Group poll has Dem Kuster up 54-27 on GOPer Negron [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Clinton 49-46 | Cook: Solid D]

** Odds & ends:

-- FL gov: Same FL Chamber poll has Dem Gillum up 48-42 on GOPer DeSantis. [Cook: Tossup] | Downballot: Ag Comm: Dem Fried up 42-37 on GOPer Calwell. AG: Dem Shaw up 35-33 on GOPer Moody. CFO: Dem Ring tied 38-38 with GOP incumbent Patronis.

-- AK gov: Alaska Survey Research poll has GOPer Dunleavy at 44%, Dem Begich at 29%, and independent incumbent Walker at 23% [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. [Cook: Lean R] => This is a bigger lead for Dunleavy than other polling has shown, but it sure looks like either Begich or Walker need to drop out and endorse the other.

-- MD gov: Mason-Dixon poll has GOP incumbent Hogan up 52-37 on Dem Jealous [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. [Cook: Likely R]

-- OK gov: Right Strategy Group poll has GOPer Stitt up 47-43 on Dem Edmondson [MOE: +/- 3.0%]. RSG is not a 538-rated pollster, but this is pretty consistent with other polling. [Cook: Likely R]

-- NH gov: Same American Research Group poll has GOP incumbent Sununu up 49-44 on Dem Kelly [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Cook: Likely R]

-- MI initiatives: EPIC/MRA poll has Initiative 1 (recreational pot) up 56-41; Initiative 2 (anti-gerrymandering) up 48-32, and Initiative 3 (various voting reforms) up 70-24 [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

posted by Chrysostom at 7:14 PM on September 28, 2018 [29 favorites]

One thing I think underappreciated about the delay is that it give Senators on the fence another week to look at polling. Kavanaugh favorables started low and have been dropping. If they crater after yesterday's hearing, that gives political cover to vote No.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:18 PM on September 28, 2018 [48 favorites]

Also, just on the 2020 front - pretty much everyone seems to think Klobuchar was fabulous yesterday and today. She's also incredibly popular in Minnesota - she won 85 or 87 counties, and will be re-elected by 25 points or so.

This observer has long been pushing Gillibrand-Klobuchar, but swapping that is fine, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:21 PM on September 28, 2018 [41 favorites]

In response to concerns that one week would not be enough for the FBI, Lawfare analyst Susan Hennessey tweets:

Having chatted with a few FBI current and formers, they actually seem to agree that with enough manpower this is something that can reasonably be done in a week. It seems crazy but this is what the FBI does, and does well, every single day, in far more complex situations than this one.

posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:31 PM on September 28, 2018 [28 favorites]

-- MD gov: Mason-Dixon poll has GOP incumbent Hogan up 52-37 on Dem Jealous [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. [Cook: Likely R]

Yeah, things aren't looking good for Jealous. I put the blame partially on his campaign--he was doing a good job at drumming up enthusiasm until the primaries, after which he just sort of stopped--but mostly on the rich white men who make up the Dem establishment here, who find Jealous too "radical" (and, undoubtedly, too black) to back him. To make matters worse, Hogan has been careful throughout his incumbency not to do anything too shockingly awful. Of course, who knows what he'll do in a second term once the restraining bolts come off. He'll probably sell the entire city of Baltimore to developers.
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:34 PM on September 28, 2018 [3 favorites]

I think Klobuchar missed an opening when Kavanaugh threw her question back at her. (Easy to armchair quarterback, I know.) When she asked if he every forget even part of an evening drinking, he said, "I don't know, have you?" And I get why that was stunning, with her dad and all.

It would have been nice if she said, "You don't know if you forget things while drinking? So you forget whether you forget things while you're drinking and often vomiting?"

A lot of Dems had missed opportunities. Kamala Harris seemed to freeze there at the end, letting him filibuster and then fizzling. Durbin and Corey Booker were the only ones who seemed sufficiently sharp out of the ten. It also struck me that almost all of Kavanaugh's angry outburts were directed at the women senators.
posted by msalt at 7:37 PM on September 28, 2018 [14 favorites]

The Pernicious Double Standards Around Brett Kavanaugh’s Drinking: Thursday’s Senate hearing served as a reminder of the blithe impunity afforded to those privileged enough to have whole systems invested in their success.

There’s been a lot of talk about double standards this week—rightfully so—and here is one more: the assumption that alcohol is one thing for men and another for women. The allegations against Kavanaugh brought by Deborah Ramirez, who has been doubted on the grounds that, at the party in question, she too had been drinking. Steubenville. Amber Wyatt. “Alcohol is not an excuse,” the young woman raped by Brock Turner wrote in her victim-impact statement, responding to Turner’s claim that drinking had impaired her decision-making capabilities as well as his. (Turner received six months in prison, a meager sentence that was justified, the judge claimed, because Turner had also lost his swimming scholarship to Stanford as a consequence of his crime.) The quiet tragedy lingering near the loud one was that, in the claim, she was seen to be making an argument rather than stating the obvious.

Women cannot afford to assume that the world will keep them safe, or give them the benefit of the doubt. Nor can the many others who do not enjoy the protective embrace of a place invested in their futures: Trayvon Martin was posthumously denigrated, in the effort to defend George Zimmerman’s killing of him, for being that most common of things: a young man who experimented with weed. The Dallas Police Department, in investigating the killing of Botham Jean in his own home at the hands of an armed police officer, recently reported that marijuana had been found in Jean’s home, as if its presence had any bearing on his slaughter. Substances that alter the mind, certainly, can be just that—temporary escapes from a wearying world, offering lightness and fun and relief—but their affordances are unevenly distributed in a way that mimics so many other systemic inequalities. For those who lack the privileges enjoyed by people like Brett Kavanaugh, the escapes themselves can also be profound liabilities.

This is possibly why, for Brett Kavanaugh, alcohol seems to be not just a matter of identity, but also a point of pride. He seems to understand, on some level—and to revel in the fact—that the ability to drink to such excess is a reflection of his status. Earlier this week, Slate’s Lili Loofbourow described Kavanaugh’s now-infamous yearbook entries as suggesting a kind of Omertà: “If you deny wrongdoing as a united front,” she wrote, “you’ll get away with it.” The Beach Week Ralph Club, the Keg-City Club (“100 Kegs or Bust”), the “Rehobeth Police Fan Club” (one gathers the insinuation)—those can be read as extensions of all that. They might have been silly jokes jotted in a yearbook that no one took seriously; they are also the braggadocio of young guys who knew they were being naughty, and knew just as well that they would get away with all the naughtiness. Boundaries tested and crossed at the same time. The pride of easy impunity.

posted by homunculus at 7:38 PM on September 28, 2018 [60 favorites]

Banner f'n week at the ol' Trump White House.

[Katelyn Polantz, CNN] Judge allows Dems' lawsuit against Trump over foreign payments to his businesses to proceed

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Connecticut, and the other members allege in the lawsuit that the President is violating the emoluments clause of the Constitution by not seeking their approval for his businesses to accept payments from foreign governments.

Ruling on the President's motion to dismiss the lawsuit, District Judge Emmet Sullivan held that the Democrats have standing to proceed on their complaint, holding that they properly alleged they suffered an injury for not being able to vote on the President's perceived receipt of payments from foreign governments.

The Democratic members of Congress' "well-pleaded complaint alleges that the President has accepted prohibited foreign emoluments without first seeking the consent of Congress," Judge Sullivan wrote. "The alleged injury is therefore directly traceable to the President's alleged failure to seek Congressional consent."

posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:40 PM on September 28, 2018 [28 favorites]

Your daily reminder for Sunday, the 29th of September, 2018: Paul Manafort is in jail. Bill Cosby is in jail. Harvey Weinstein is under indictment. Les Moonves is out of a job, and very probably a pension. TANGO DOWN, as they say.
posted by adamgreenfield at 8:02 PM on September 28, 2018 [109 favorites]

Trump administration, in a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration environmental impact statement (PDF), sees a disastrous 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100 (Washington Post) To justify their decision to freeze federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks built after 2020, the impact statement says, "The impacts of the Proposed Action and alternatives [...] would be small compared to the expected changes associated with the emissions trajectories" on their climate change model.

"We're already fucked, so why bother making people's lives a bit better in the meantime? It's not like car companies are already invested in reducing emissions (CNBC) that will help cities and states meet federal air quality standards and decrease the number of people who die prematurely (Union of Concerned Scientists)." [Fake, but it's real to me.]

This is another case of the Trump administration making things "better" for businesses but apparently without consulting those businesses they claim to be helping. R&D moves slowly, slower than GOP bureaucrats who want us all rolling coal as a fuck you to the conservative enviro-hippies in their Priuses, so to freeze standards means companies could scrap their investments in improved fuel efficiencies, or keep working on their investments and roll out new models.

Oh, and it's not only Tesla who will be rolling out new electronic cars -- Audi, Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Chevrolet have new models coming out soon-to-now. Oil giant Shell leads investment in startup with ‘Electric Cars for Everyone’ goal for charging tech, and Saudi Arabia Is Looking To Invest In A New Electric Car Company. Again, the Trump administration is supporting the wrong side of history that is actively being written.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:17 PM on September 28, 2018 [22 favorites]

"CNN Newsroom’s Brooke Baldwin ended her Friday afternoon program with a monologue, giving voice to survivors of sexual assault sharing their truth in the wake of Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony against Brett Kavanaugh."
Content warning: sexual assault
posted by nicebookrack at 9:04 PM on September 28, 2018 [10 favorites]

Oh, and it's not only Tesla who will be rolling out new electronic cars -- Audi, Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz and Chevrolet have new models coming out soon-to-now. Oil giant Shell leads investment in startup with ‘Electric Cars for Everyone’ goal for charging tech, and Saudi Arabia Is Looking To Invest In A New Electric Car Company. Again, the Trump administration is supporting the wrong side of history that is actively being written.
posted by filthy light thief at 12:17 PM on September 29 [2 favorites +] [!]

Well, that is simple flt, we just make the charging stations coal powered.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:28 PM on September 29 [+] [!]

The more they centralize production, and the more they build out a higher-voltage grid, and the more energy demand moves from direct fossil fuel burning to electrical demand, where any input is viable input (your car can burn solar, wind, nuclear, natural gas, whatever), the easier it is to crowd out the bad fuel sources over time. The smart grid and decentralized storage are just a matter of time now.

Trump and the Republicans could so easily build a new energy aristocracy that would dwarf the coal and oil lobby in the next generation. This could have saved the Republicans from irrelevance in 20 years. They could have chosen that. Nope. Not enough foresight to look past their own nose.
posted by saysthis at 9:11 PM on September 28, 2018 [37 favorites]

@11thHour: BREAKING: The @LATimes reports FBI agents are expanding their Kavanaugh investigation beyond Blasey Ford's allegation seeking to immediately interview another woman.
posted by joedan at 9:53 PM on September 28, 2018 [114 favorites]

It is likely that they are referring to Avenatti and Swetnick.

The people I very much hope the FBI interviews are one of Ford's friends who appeared on (I think) Cuomo's show and also the other woman (girl at the time) that Ford put at the house when she was assaulted. I believe that she has publicly said, not that it didn't happen as the GOP always claims, but that she doesn't remember that particular get together. However, Ford's friend made comments live on camera implying that the woman in question does remember the event but couldn't bear the public scrutiny she would have received had she confirmed it, and that she furthermore apologized for this to Ford in either a text or email after Ford went public.

It struck me at the time that this was not information Ford's friend was supposed to reveal publicly. She made some mention of, I believe, "health problems" complicating this woman's situation. But you can't put the genie back in the bottle and while I'm sorry for whatever is going on with her the FBI has a job to do and it is a pivotal moment for the country. People always have the right not to speak to the FBI but the attempt should at least be made.
posted by Justinian at 10:16 PM on September 28, 2018 [12 favorites]

That didn’t take long.

As the nominee well knows, these things can go in unexpected directions.
posted by notyou at 10:16 PM on September 28, 2018 [10 favorites]

I hope Kavanaugh s wife and daughters are safe. That was the face of a woman who has seen that rage before. I keep replaying in my head kavs
scrunched up, red , screaming face, and I know what comes after that when nobody is watching.

No woman deserves to be the focus of that irrational rage. I mean, he went full Alex Jones in a Senate hearing on national television, and then got egged on by cruel, soulless bastards, making Kav even more secure in the righteousness of his entitlement.

If I were somewhere with friends and someone's husband behaved like that, I would pull her aside and ask if she needed an exit strategy. When men get to that spittle flecked anger, I feel they are a threat to everyone, but especially to those with no defenses. That's the kind of guy who punches down.

Kavanaugh scared me before Dr. Ford and others shared their stories, but after yesterday, he terrifies me. He is the joyful inquisitor, he relishes the suffering of others. You could see his cruelty in open session.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 11:02 PM on September 28, 2018 [140 favorites]

Avenatti is on a mission to save the Republic, a true patriot.

- He went to bat for Stormy Daniels, willing to put his reputation on the line to uncover a great crime against the Republic and prevent a grave injustice being committed on an honest sex-worker. He didn't just go to bat, he swung for the fences, and went yard! (Yes, the Bo-Sawx are having an epic year, don't judge my metaphors!)
- He is a Gen-X master-class in pure and perfect White Hat trolling. He says things calculated to make the enemies of the Republic squirm and writhe and reveal more than they should, and make them look baaaad while doing it. When called out for bullshitting, it turns out he actually does have his ducks in a row, and then he takes the opportunity to sneer at the enemies of Democracy for making him show it.
- He announced his candidacy for President as a way to shame the Democratic Party into actually encouraging their best and brightest to get up off the bench for 2020 while antagonizing the President by mocking his entry in politics. Dude's based out of LA, he knows how to put on a show.
- Is proud of his heritage as the scion of immigrants. Anyone who follows the great Italian Diaspora knows the nasty, vile slander heaped upon them for not knowing the language and wanting a better life for themselves and especially their children. Sixteen million Italians left Italy for a better life between the American Civil War and WWI, most to the United States. The entire population of Syria, today, is 18 million. Migrant crisis? #basta!
- He is up at the plate again, for an honest woman wronged by the Elite, with a runner at third, and the Republicans have terrible middle-relief.
posted by Slap*Happy at 11:02 PM on September 28, 2018 [81 favorites]

I hope Kavanaugh s wife and daughters are safe. That was the face of a woman who has seen that rage before. I keep replaying in my head kavs
scrunched up, red , screaming face, and I know what comes after that when nobody is watching.

Right?? That temper tantrum should have disqualified him right there. He clearly can't handle the public scrutiny that comes with the supreme court job. Lindsay Graham was also disgusting.

I don't think those men realize the number of people who visibly recoiled watching that testimony. We were idly chatting about it at work today and one of my co-workers who was walking by chipped in with "no way that man should be in charge of anything, he probably beats his wife. And his dog. And I bet he likes beer. Probably had some before the hearing". No-one disagreed.
posted by fshgrl at 11:22 PM on September 28, 2018 [54 favorites]

[Samantha Bee] Doesn't Need A Show To Vent About Brett Kavanaugh
posted by kirkaracha at 11:33 PM on September 28, 2018 [47 favorites]

Since PSLF was mentioned, I want to once again encourage everyone who thinks they might be eligible to read the NYAG's guide to the basics of eligibility (not NY-specific). It doesn't cover every single possible scenario but it identifies many of the ways you could end up not qualifying, and explains how to get started determining how many qualifying payments you've made.

Additionally, if you've gotten bad information from your servicer in the past about your PSLF eligibility, please complain to the CFPB (it won't always be like this) and your local state AG. They can't generally fix your individual situation, but investigations depend on resident complaints.
posted by praemunire at 11:41 PM on September 28, 2018 [2 favorites]

Politico has an insider account of the Kavanaugh delay: Scenes from Jeff Flake's Supreme Court Rebellion

In Susan Collins' third-floor office in the Capitol [on Thursday night], she and her Republican colleagues Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska — joined by Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia — agreed they had the power to make or break Kavanaugh. And without settling on precise details, they decided to use their leverage to insist on a process that would allow them to reach a comfort level with Kavanaugh, rather than to kill his Supreme Court nomination outright, according to two people familiar with the meeting.[...]

Immediately after Flake’s public turnabout, liberals who have led the anti-Kavanaugh campaign were evidently worried that they’d fallen into a trap after some Democrats endorsed the investigation.

“The White House can define the FBI investigation,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) said. “They can control the investigation.”

But Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said that Flake, Collins and Murkowski would have their own effective leverage over any FBI process that they believed was incomplete in investigating Kavanaugh.

“It’s better than where we were before,” Klobuchar said. “I’ll just leave it at that.”

Politico buries this nugget in its narrative of Flake's simmering demurral: "Republicans fear more allegations may surface in the coming days."

The NYT offers some Oval Office snippets from Thursday: A Tumultuous 24 Hours: How Jeff Flake Delayed a Vote on Kavanaugh

President Trump, aides said, believed [Christine Blasey Ford] was persuasive and informed the aides that he believed the judge’s confirmation was in jeopardy. Maybe, he said, the F.B.I. should spend a week to investigate the accusations as Democrats were demanding.

Some of the aides pushed back on Mr. Trump, including the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, who saw the investigation as a delay tactic cooked up by the Democrats to give them more time to dig up dirt on Judge Kavanaugh.

Trump's West Virginia rally tonight should tell us how confident he is in the survival odds on Flake's nomination—and how much he'll use it as leverage, one way or another, in midterm campaigning.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:34 AM on September 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

So now we read that Mark Judge is willing to cooperate with the FBI.
I can't fully get a grip on the alternatives he may be facing and the leverage the FBI would be able to apply. What would telling the truth imply for him in negative and positive outcomes? What would staying with his version ("I don't recall") mean for him?
posted by Namlit at 3:15 AM on September 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

The most face-saving thing for all involved would be for Trump to fire Bart-O and reference the fussbudget snotflinging tantrum he threw on TV the other day. He reverses himself constantly on who is or isn't a golden child, and surely there's another venal asshole he can find and toss on the court to support the notion that the president is above the law. All he has to do is say that reports that he was riveted to the testimony Thursday were inaccurate; he was briefed on the judge's remarks but he was superbusy POTUSing and didn't have a chance to really watch until later, whereupon he discovered that the man's demeanor shocked and appalled him. Or, to put it Trumpily, "I didn't like that he cried." Maybe throw in "like a dog."

I think it's entirely possible that Judge and Kavanaugh legitimately don't recall the event. It wouldn't have taken more than a few moments to play out, and it would have had no memorable effects on them. Nothing happened to them. But just in case, I hope they push and push and push on Judge to see if he's still sensitive anywhere. There's the encounter in the Safeway where he looked uncomfortable, and there's his ex-girlfriend's testimony that he confessed to feeling guilty about rapes he participated in. Maybe buried in him somewhere is some shame.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:45 AM on September 29, 2018 [22 favorites]

Mary Pflum and Brandy Zadrozny, WaPo:

Keg-parties and assaults: Women from Catholic high schools in Washington area break 'culture of silence'

A dozen women who attended Catholic and private prep schools in the Montgomery County area in the 1980s spoke to NBC News this week, seven of them on the record. The women — most of whom signed an open letter saying they believed Ford’s allegation, and all but two of whom did not know her or Kavanaugh personally — shared their memories of kegs, bonfires and unsupervised beach houses where heavy drinking fueled sexually inappropriate comments and behavior and attacks that were never spoken of afterward.
...
One woman, who graduated from an all-girls school just south of Georgetown Prep the same year as Kavanaugh graduated, said she was 15 the night she was at one of those parties and lost track of her friends. She was alone with four boys and she was raped, she said, but she didn’t call it that until many years later.


“I don’t think I walked away knowing I’d been raped,” said the woman, who asked not to be identified out of fear that sharing her story could affect her professionally. After the assault, the woman said she sneaked back into her home through the window she had left from hours earlier.

“I walked away being ashamed,” she said. “Why would you tell? Who would have listened?”"

posted by OnceUponATime at 4:11 AM on September 29, 2018 [71 favorites]

In a discussion at the end of the last thread about impeachment vs removal from office, someone noted that a total of 45 Senators had voted for Bill Clinton's removal from office. I was pretty young when that was all going down, and it occurred to me that to this day I had no idea who had actually voted for it, so I looked it up. In case anyone else is curious, here are a few of the names that came up: Mike Crapo. Chuck Grassley. Orrin Hatch. John McCain. Mitch McConnell. Jeff Sessions. All VOTED that THE PRESIDENT needed to be REMOVED FROM OFFICE for lying about sexual indiscretions.
posted by robotdevil at 4:53 AM on September 29, 2018 [126 favorites]

I am as happy as I can be about the situation, failing his nom dying in committee and given that Kavanaugh being put on a rocket and launched into space and being replaced by Merrick Garland is off the table.

Kavanaugh, I'm choosing to imagine, is right now in a hell of his own making. I'm not advocating empathy for the man; nay, on the contrary, I am enjoying the thought he feels shredded from the inside out, that he feels the walls of the lie of his life falling down and is shocked, utterly shocked that such a thing could happen to him, given his credentials. I also wish he didn't have a wife and kids around to deal with the fallout, but for me, I hope for this next week, I hope that every second feels like an hour to Kavanaugh. I hope that the nomination falls through and when it does, he feels like a failure every moment of his life from that point forward. That he knows nothing but torment until either his life ends or he becomes a different and better person.

Huh, I guess I don't really like this guy Kavanaugh.
posted by angrycat at 5:23 AM on September 29, 2018 [61 favorites]

also, anecdotally, a friend of a friend roomed with somebody at Yale as an undergrad who had gone to Georgetown Prep, who, according to this friend of a friend, was trying to repent for something that had happened in high school and whatever had happened --I mean, he could be the traumatizer or the victim, who knows--had really messed him up. The idea of a college kid trying to acknowledge his past misdeeds--that's super sympathetic. While Kavanaugh has built a life without challenging whatever fucked up shit happened in high school, or at least insisting that he doesn't need to account for it publically, all the while becoming one of the most powerful men in the country. That's super unsympathetic.
posted by angrycat at 5:30 AM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

“They have been pleading for the humanity of the accused, while presiding over the most brutal carceral system in the entire world. "I'm gonna remember this," Graham told Democrats on the Committee. The sense of affront is palpable.” This Is War
posted by The Whelk at 5:31 AM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

There's the encounter in the Safeway where he looked uncomfortable, and there's his ex-girlfriend's testimony that he confessed to feeling guilty about rapes he participated in. Maybe buried in him somewhere is some shame.

It's probably not a coincidence that the summer of 82 seems to be when Judge became a full on alcoholic. His shame might have pushed him over the edge.
posted by duoshao at 5:39 AM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

...that he feels the walls of the lie of his life falling down and is shocked, utterly shocked that such a thing could happen to him, given his credentials.

And, as it seems 2018 apparently still hasn't quite burned every last drop of optimism from me, I do have a slight hope that if he does get nicked for this, then the investigation will also find, implicate, and jail all his friends who were involved.

Possibly even setting a precedent for other years and other schools to be similarly investigated. A blow not just to his credentials, but a nuke dropped on the credentialing system itself. Because it needs nuked.

Trump hasn't really changed the the Republican political ecosystem (they were who they were before), but he has punctuated the equilibrium, so massive change is all but inevitable. Making sure it's in the right direction will be the most significant war (indeed) in human history.
posted by Buntix at 5:45 AM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

It would have been nice if she said, "You don't know if you forget things while drinking? So you forget whether you forget things while you're drinking and often vomiting?"

What drives me nuts about all that is, he's admitted to not recalling circumstances of drinking, gambling and losing his shit then he's in his 30s.

“Apologies to all for missing Friday [...] and growing aggressive after blowing still another game of dice (don’t recall). Reminders to everyone to be very, very vigilant w/r/t confidentiality on all issues and all fronts, including with spouses.”

He may not be blacked out when doing this; there are also things called brownouts and greyouts that come from heavy drinking, and they involve forgetting various percentages of what went on. There are a lot of people on Twitter diagnosing him with the disease of alcoholism, and none of us really know. But the way he throws out forgetting as a sort of convenience with that parenthetical "don't recall"? He sounds like every abusive drunk I've ever known. Forgetting is not always a negative consequence for them; it's part of their toolbox to deal with the shitty way they treat others. Use of recreational substances does not stop you from being a decent person, maybe even a good judge. But this guy is writing about hiding stuff from his spouse and he's compartmentalized his behavior even to himself. He seems to believe the bullshit he's talking. To me, those are not the thought processes of a judge.
posted by BibiRose at 6:03 AM on September 29, 2018 [41 favorites]

In the midst of this well-intentioned article, there's an idea I've seen popping up all over the place that does not sit well with me:

"What separates a pretty-good-but-flawed-dude from a Kavanaugh is owning up to one's transgressions and examining one's privilege." (GQ, Marian Bull, How to Talk to the Women in Your Life Right Now)

What separates a pretty-good-but-flawed dude from a Kavanaugh is sexual assault. You don't get to be a pretty good guy and assault women, no matter how much remorse you may later feel. The man who assaulted me has expressed remorse. Whoopdeedoo for him. It does not change the fact that I will live with PTSD for the rest of my life, or the fact that he made a choice to treat another human being as an object. A man who has committed sexual assault is not just the sum of his current choices, the ones that make him feel better about himself, but of his lifetime of choices. 
posted by ruetheday at 6:17 AM on September 29, 2018 [106 favorites]

Hope this is ok to post here. I made a metatalk post inviting our community to support survivors of sexual assault.
posted by CMcG at 6:29 AM on September 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

Kavanaugh, I'm choosing to imagine, is right now in a hell of his own making. I'm not advocating empathy for the man; nay, on the contrary, I am enjoying the thought he feels shredded from the inside out, that he feels the walls of the lie of his life falling down and is shocked, utterly shocked that such a thing could happen to him, given his credentials

This is why, after the news about the expanded scope of the supplemental investigation, I wouldn't be that surprised if Monday sees Kavanaugh withdrawing from nomination.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:30 AM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

“They have been pleading for the humanity of the accused, while presiding over the most brutal carceral system in the entire world. "I'm gonna remember this," Graham told Democrats on the Committee. The sense of affront is palpable.” This Is War

Honestly, I'm just not here for the lefty-dude "rape culture is really all about class" bullshit right now. I can't do it. Y'all deal with your own prep school rapists first, and then maybe I'll listen to you about this. Just kidding: I still probably won't want to hear it. But it's been less than a year since alleged prep-school rapist Emmett Rensin was ousted as chair of my local DSA chapter, and I am not yet convinced that the left is particularly better than the right on this one.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:43 AM on September 29, 2018 [49 favorites]

It’s about class but it’s also blatantly about MEN. Upper class women don’t rape in droves. Blaming class exclusively is just another way to not examine one’s own privilege, to shift the fight from sexism as a whole to classism as a whole because it’s a more comfortable fight for leftist men.

I am pretty damned done, honestly. The old boy’s club is a vile and criminal institution that is working hard to protect itself. Don’t be fooled, however, into thinking that they are the root of the problem and not just the ones that can best get away with it because of their power.
posted by lydhre at 6:55 AM on September 29, 2018 [56 favorites]

I found a clip of that Amy Klobuchar statement I thought was so great, about the stakes of this nomination in terms of the rule of law. Highly recommended, particularly the beginning. The Kavanaugh scandal is deeply related to Trump's own scandals.
posted by OnceUponATime at 7:04 AM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

In case anyone else is curious, here are a few of the names that came up: Mike Crapo. Chuck Grassley. Orrin Hatch. John McCain. Mitch McConnell. Jeff Sessions. All VOTED that THE PRESIDENT needed to be REMOVED FROM OFFICE for lying about sexual indiscretions.

Here's the thing though: they didn't. Not really. They all voted that the Democratic president be removed from office for being a Democrat.

We need to stop acting like pointing out Republican hypocrisy is some sort of gotcha. They know, they know that we know, and they think it's adorable that we think they should be ashamed of it.
posted by showbiz_liz at 7:04 AM on September 29, 2018 [146 favorites]

I’m so grateful to all the women who have come before me, who made it possible for my own rape to be reported to my university, investigated properly, and for my assailant to be sanctioned. I keep seeing all the stuff going on around Kavanaugh and thinking, “if my assault hadn’t been reported, that could have been my assailant in 20 years.”

Christine Blasey didn’t have the benefit of being able to report and be taken seriously when she was 15. Last year, I did. Many, many women have contributed to the change that made that possible.
posted by ocherdraco at 7:19 AM on September 29, 2018 [139 favorites]

Buntix: "I do have a slight hope that if he does get nicked for this, then the investigation will also find, implicate, and jail all his friends who were involved.

Possibly even setting a precedent for other years and other schools to be similarly investigated. A blow not just to his credentials, but a nuke dropped on the credentialing system itself. Because it needs nuked.
"

I'm reminded of this bit in The Wire "You follow drugs, you get drug addicts and drug dealers. But you start to follow the money, and you don't know where the fuck it's gonna take you. " I really can't see the establishment giving free reign to anyone to follow the threads on this to the end or even the middle.
posted by Mitheral at 7:25 AM on September 29, 2018 [24 favorites]

This is incredibly old news in this past century of seven days, but Philip Bump (WaPost) wrote about Kavanaugh's friend "Squi" two days ago. A few key facts:

1. Squi appears 13 times in Kavanaugh's Summer 1982 calendar, including in the infamous "skis at PJ's" July 1 entry.
2. Squi is the dude Ed Whelan fingered as the doppelgänger/"real rapist" last week. This was confirmed by Kavanaugh's identification of him during testimony, and by his identification (as "Squee") in the yearbook.
3. Ford testified that she knew Kavanaugh because she "went out" with Squi for about two months, in the time prior to the assault.
4. Kavanaugh claimed in testimony: he “may” have met Ford but that they “did not travel in the same social circle” and that “she was not a friend, not someone I knew.”

As Bump writes, "[Republican prosecutor] Mitchell’s apparent role was to undercut Ford’s story. By linking Ford to Squi, she may have helped undercut Kavanaugh’s."

We did talk about Josh Marshall's take of a "clumsy coverup" in the last thread. Not only did Kavanaugh clearly lie when he said that Ford was "not someone I knew", but it seems likely, and there is pretty strong circumstantial evidence, that he is the source for Whelan's doppelgänger theory. Marshall writes that, if pursued, this could indicate "real evidence of Kavanaugh’s consciousness of guilt".

Unfortunately, I think it's unlikely the "limited" FBI investigation, which Rosenstein predicted "was unlikely to unearth much more than was already known," will address this issue.

The only discussion I could find of Squi in the prior thread was this comment by InTheYear2017.
posted by pjenks at 7:26 AM on September 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

The only difference class makes is how many women, belonging to who, a man feels entitled to.

I am not yet convinced that the left is particularly better than the right on this one.

I think the left is better in almost exact proportion to how many less men it has, and I do not think this is an accident.

There’s this thing I’ve noticed in the aftermath of every big cultural moment around rape and misogyny, and it only happens after the dust has settled and the needle has moved, if ever so slightly, in the direction of “not everything is terrible all of the time.” When the new conventional wisdom has solidified on the left, and there is broader agreement about who was right and who was wrong in the previous dust up.

It’s this particular grimace. This expression you see on lefty men when previous said dust up gets brought up in the light of the new conventional wisdom, and it’s the face of having to swallow your feelings. I swear to God you can almost see the “yeah, but” get caught in the back of their mouths at the last minute, where they’ve got no choice but to actually swallow it. And they hate it. Everyone hates it! Swallowing your feelings is the fucking worst! But they haven’t been training for it since like fucking birth so they suck at it, and they have no stamina, and so they eventually blow.

My favorite were the delayed Cat Person blow ups, but the delayed Kavanaugh blow ups are going to be...less amusing.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:27 AM on September 29, 2018 [47 favorites]

We need to stop acting like pointing out Republican hypocrisy is some sort of gotcha. They know, they know that we know, and they think it's adorable that we think they should be ashamed of it.

Absolutely agree that they don't care but absolutely think we need to keep pointing it out. I'm not pointing it out to change their behavior or shame them – they're despicable and impossible to change or shame – I point it out for the few sane Rs, independents, and perhaps uninformed Ds. Same as when I refute some RWNJ friend's false post on Facebook I'm not trying to change their mind, I'm writing for the sane audience that will see it and be informed and perhaps persuaded. Elections are won on the margins and sure a lot of it will not make a difference but we don't need huge numbers, we need small percentages to get 50.1%.
posted by chris24 at 7:33 AM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

I am not yet convinced that the left is particularly better than the right on this one.

We can retread the "are liberals leftists" and "why is there rape culture" over and over again, but however much the Democrats need to get their own house in order, at least in terms of not stealing women's bodily autonomy as a matter of policy, what passes for "the left" in this country is particularly better than the right on this one, and we have daily documentary proof.

[on preview, I'd also guess that it has something to do with having a lot more women involved]
posted by aspersioncast at 7:36 AM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

TPM's analysis makes more sense read alongside that Philip Bump story. Hopefully those inconsistencies are on the FBI's to-do list.

If Kavanaugh concludes the FBI will report he was "untruthful" or even "misleading" (to borrow the milquetoast language used about Trump's lies), fast forward to the next Class President mea culpa about how he was just trying to spare everyone the trouble and will now be going back to the D.C. Circuit to continue chipping away at regulation and access to the courts, thanks very much.

I am not yet convinced that the left is particularly better than the right on this one.

I think it depends how you mean that. Shitty men are everywhere, and certainly being economically left is no inoculation against misogyny. However, we are hopefully getting to the point that you can't call yourself "socially liberal" or "progressive" while dismissing violence against women, or upholding the traditionally toxic aspects of male socialization as somehow virtuous.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:44 AM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

The cruelty of Trump (and us, America) continues:

@Pass_Blue Breaking: From a UN source this AM: a message from the staff union announcing that the us mission will no longer give g4 visas to same sex unmarried couples. Possible backlash?

@pass_blue: Here is the note from #UN on new rules (AUTO-DOWNLOAD DOCX) via @StateDept & G4 visas for domestic partners:
"As of 1 Oct, same-sex domestic partners accompanying or seeking to join newly arrived UN officials must provide proof of marriage to be eligible for a G-4 visa" #UNGA

This received quite a bit of circulation yesterday when re-tweeted by Samantha Power (former UN Ambassador under Obama), but I haven't seen any articles written yet.

edit: link to UN document was broken... this Google link is from 13Sept
posted by pjenks at 7:47 AM on September 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh’s Former Roommate Describes Their Debauched Dorm at Yale

Posted by a high school friend who went to Yale and lived in Lawrance Hall some years earlier than Kavanaugh. I was impressed that a guy came on her thread and apologized for being a jerk back then, although it doesn't sound as though he did anything as bad as Kavanaugh is accused of doing.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:48 AM on September 29, 2018 [15 favorites]

I’m so grateful to all the women who have come before me, who made it possible for my own rape to be reported to my university, investigated properly, and for my assailant to be sanctioned. I keep seeing all the stuff going on around Kavanaugh and thinking, “if my assault hadn’t been reported, that could have been my assailant in 20 years.”

The great irony of this is that if Kavanaugh had been prosecuted when he did the sexual assault it wouldn't be an issue now for his supreme court confirmation because he would have been a young offender.
posted by srboisvert at 7:49 AM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

We can retread the "are liberals leftists" and "why is there rape culture" over and over again, but however much the Democrats need to get their own house in order, at least in terms of not stealing women's bodily autonomy as a matter of policy, what passes for "the left" in this country is particularly better than the right on this one, and we have daily documentary proof.

That link did not go to a Democrat. It went to the Patreon of the kind of leftist dude who probably still insists that he didn't vote for Hillary because the lesser of two evils is still evil and blah, blah, blah neoliberalism. The kind of dude who would be happy to explain in detail why my bodily autonomy is a side issue, a distraction from the Real Issues of Class Struggle. I am reeeeaaaaallll familiar with that kind of dude, and I had the misfortune of being the admin girl (usage intentional) for an organization full of them when I was in my early 20s. They weren't any better. They in fact shared a lot of the same entitlements and assumptions about women as assholes like Kavanaugh. Maybe they're currently being dragged into being better, which is fab. But I still don't want to hear them pontificate about how The Real Issue is Class Struggle.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:50 AM on September 29, 2018 [59 favorites]

Marcy Wheeler (emptywheel) lays out a compelling case that The Record Supports Christine Blasey Ford. She argues that Kavanaugh's testimony seems to corroborate Doctor Blasey Ford's version of events.

Her description of the quality of his testimony pulls no punches:

His statement was delivered shrilly, with an angry red face, just short of screaming. Coming after hours of testimony he was sometimes a violent drunk, Kavanaugh looked during his statement like the drunk you avoid in the parking lot of a bar, because it’s just not worthwhile human interaction. I don’t rule out him drinking while watching Ford’s testimony, nor did others.

In short, Kavanaugh looked like a guy who could not manage rage, just as numerous witnesses had described him being as as a drunk. [...]

Kavanaugh is just like so many other men we've all met who have next to zero emotional regulation skills. He's never had to practice that when it counts and so couldn't even hold it together for a few hours--it's disqualifying on its face.

Similarly, her recounting of Mitchell's questioning of him shows how even the most cursory question about the activities of July 1, 1982 were so damaging that Lindsey* threw a screaming tantrum rather than have Kavanaugh answer their hand-picked prosecutor's questions.

Shortly thereafter, she turned to his calendar, getting him to confirm that he wrote everything in there. In her next round, Mitchell’s first questions were about the July 1 entry. After filibustering about the earlier workout session (about which he wasn’t asked), Kavanaugh admitted that the entry showed he got together at Tim Gaudet’s — with Mark Judge and PJ Smith — and Chris Garrett, whose nickname is Squi.

In other words, Kavanaugh confirmed he was at a small gathering with the boys Ford said were there, as well as the guy who had introduced her to these boys.

Durbin’s questioning followed, after which Lindsey Graham took over questioning from Mitchell and went on a tear, calling it an unethical sham. Having gotten Kavanaugh to identify a get-together that matched Ford’s description, Mitchell was done questioning for the day.

Effectively, the GOP hired a prosecutor to question a victim, but decided the alleged perpetrator could not withstand the same prosecutor’s questions as soon as she had him identify a get-together that resembled the one described by Ford.

Seriously, check out Marcy's piece--I think she's laid out the case that needs to be investigated and made to stop this corrupt nomination.

*Lindsey Graham is one of biggest chickenshit disappointments in the history of the Republic. Hes's thrown away every intelligent and principled thing he did to stand against Trump in 2016. He's intelligent enough to know better, but does not care.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 7:50 AM on September 29, 2018 [80 favorites]

We need to stop acting like pointing out Republican hypocrisy is some sort of gotcha. They know, they know that we know, and they thi

I don’t point these things out for them. I point them out for us. For me, every last bit of this shit adds fuel to my fire. It’s hard to keep up the fight and recognizing things like these galvanizes me and helps me to focus in the face of multifaceted garbage and a cloud of rage.
posted by robotdevil at 7:53 AM on September 29, 2018 [31 favorites]

As of 1 Oct, same-sex domestic partners accompanying or seeking to join newly arrived UN officials must provide proof of marriage to be eligible for a G-4 visa

What is this point of this useless cruelty? Also, the fucking UN headquarters is in New York City, why do these assholes keep trying to defund, discredit, frustrate and undermine the institution that most plainly acknowledges the (rapidly atrophying) US hegemony in international relations? (Except, of course, when we need permission for some military adventure.)

I look forward to the UN's announcement of its pilot Social Attache internship program, though its nepotism in hiring only the same-sex domestic partners of UN officials will be truly lamentable.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:54 AM on September 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

He may not be blacked out when doing this; there are also things called brownouts and greyouts that come from heavy drinking, and they involve forgetting various percentages of what went on.

Oh, that's a fantastic point! He could be lawyering "black out" the way Clinton lawyered "is."

Also, that's exactly the way that works: you think you remember the night complete until you encounter another person with a fuller recollection. During my almost-died semester of learning to drink like a human being and not like an unhinged wild animal, I remember somebody asking me whether I remembered falling down the night before, and some ve-e-ery hazy memory of stumbling over a Purple Porpoise chair and becoming acquainted with the Purple Porpoise floor floated up. It would not have had nobody said anything. I would not have remembered falling down in front of a ton of people had nobody reminded me, so how, if two boys didn't remember 7 minutes spent chasing someone upstairs and then laughing and jumping on top of her and "horsing around" and if nobody downstairs said anything the next day, as why would they, why would they even have noticed, it's not like this took a long time or would have seemed unusual to anyone not in the room, how would either of them have remembered it? They wouldn't.

All you need is a skoash more self-confidence than I, an 18-year-old female person had upon being told something I had done but that I didn't remember doing the night before, to overlook, in the instant after somebody reminds you, "haw, you were wasted, remember you threw a six-pack of beer at the cops" that the single most important part of that utterance is the word "remember," and that you don't.

If your culture is one where being president of the keg club is a point of pride and you're meant to do epic shit while drunk to prove your epicness and you find out the next day that you, whatever, puked, fell in the bathtub while trying to take your pants off for a pissing contest, took all of your roommate's stuff out of your shared suite in the dorm and put it on the lawn threw all the pool furniture into the pool, or whatever highschoolshitfacedboy heroics you performed, you will likely remember the fact that you did the epic thing and not the fact that you forgot that you did the epic thing. Because you're 17 years old, male, white, and rich, and your peers, your parents, your school, your community, your future school, all your future employers, your country, the world, God, everybody and every institution you know all think giving you the liberty to drink like a unhinged wild animal at 17 is fine.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:59 AM on September 29, 2018 [43 favorites]

The Michael Lewis article is horrifying, almost sentence-by-sentence. The worst part for me, though, is the last paragraph on the USDA, and how Trump's appointees have no idea of its scope or mission. This is obvious every day as tariffs and immigration restrictions and food stamp cutbacks have harmed not only the intended targets (our trade partners, persecuted people and impoverished people) but inevitably to anyone who thinks about it for even a second, our farmers. And right now the Farm Bill is about to expire.

The Farm Bill is important. Every state can get money to deal with its most urgent agricultural problems. I get Farm Bill funding every year, but it's a lot of paperwork for (in my case) a negligible amount of funding, and I don't do it for that. I do it because it's given to solve important problems, and as a public servant, that's what I'm supposed to do. Also, with my regular funding, it's easy to buy equipment but hard to hire people. With Farm Bill money I can train student interns. In these nightmare times, the thing that gives me the greatest sense of accomplishment is teaching young people how to do science, and the Farm Bill allows me to let them help solve urgent agricultural problems. I hope the general public knows enough about the Farm Bill to demand its support, but I don't think they do.
posted by acrasis at 8:05 AM on September 29, 2018 [47 favorites]

the House Intelligence Committee voted unanimously to send dozens of interview transcripts from its investigation of Russia meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for declassification before they are released to the public. (Reuters)

Further to this, Daily Beast reports: House Intel GOP Withholds Rohrabacher and Wasserman Schultz’s Russia Probe Transcripts

Two sources told The Daily Beast on Friday morning that Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee wanted their GOP colleagues to disclose an account given to the panel by Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), who is considered the Republican legislator closest to the Kremlin.

“The Republicans are trying to conceal from the voters their colleague Dana Rohrabacher’s Russia investigation testimony,” said a committee source familiar with the issue. “There were highly concerning contacts between Rohrabacher and Russians during the campaign that the public should hear about.”

As well, two sources said the Republicans denied release of an interview given to them by Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who chaired the Democratic National Committee in 2016 when Russian military intelligence infiltrated the organization’s servers and exfiltrated for publication a large trove of internal communications.[...]

The Republicans also voted against releasing interviews from the Russia probe with several pivotal former intelligence officials. They include James Comey, the FBI director President Trump fired; John Brennan, the ex-CIA director whose security clearance Trump stripped; and Michael Rogers, who this year stepped down as the head of the National Security Agency. The three men presided over the January 2017 intelligence assessment that stated Russia interfered in the 2016 election.

Adam Schiff's statement is scathing: “Now, on the last day of session before the election, Republicans claim to have discovered a newfound commitment to transparency. When [Devin Nunes] was pressed on whether the timing of this sudden decision was directed by the White House or the President’s legal defense team, he refused to answer. [...] This is not transparency, only a further subterfuge.”
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:10 AM on September 29, 2018 [35 favorites]

This FPP from a few years ago links to an unflinching account of fraternity life at anther Ivy League University - Dartmouth. Both the linked article and the MeFi comments are interesting to read now, six years later, in light of more explicit discussion of toxic masculinity.
posted by Rumple at 8:26 AM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

THE ATTENTION SEEKERS HAVE LOGGED ON!

@ap
BREAKING: North Korea says it will never disarm nuclear weapons first without more trust in US.
posted by Artw at 8:30 AM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Brace yourself, it seems we're about to enter Infrastructure Week.

@HouseGOP
For too long, our infrastructure has been allowed to fall into disarray, but not anymore thanks to the work we’re doing in Congress. #BetterOffNow
What Congress is doing about infrastructure
posted by chris24 at 9:23 AM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

Boston Flake update: Emerson College, which owns but leases out the theater where Flake and Kasich were supposed to chat Monday morning about the future of the Republican Party, got them booted. Instead, they will be speaking in a tent on City Hall Plaza, still as part of the Forbes "30 Under 30" festival (which is currently charging $945 for a day pass). Forbes had already rented a large chunk of the plaza for its "Under 30 Village" and already planned to have tents set up.
posted by adamg at 9:28 AM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

Lindsey Graham is one of biggest chickenshit disappointments in the history of the Republic. Hes's thrown away every intelligent and principled thing he did to stand against Trump in 2016. He's intelligent enough to know better, but does not care.

"If you know anything about me, I want to be relevant."

That is Graham's self-stated mantra, and it is the only thing you need to know about the man. When John McCain was alive and could prop Graham up like a broomstick, Graham was his buddy. Once McCain passed, he shifted almost instantly into President Trump Is Right mode because that was his new road to prominence. He was 100% behind Jeff Sessions until it became politically difficult for him to do so, then that disappeared. He called Tom Cotton "the Steve King of the Senate" right up until he wanted Cotton's support, then that disappeared. He went from one of Bill Clinton's trial managers to being collegial with Senator Hillary to joining the "lock her up" chorus in perfect sync with the prevailing winds. And now that he needs Trump to like him to stand any chance of reelection in 2020, and his guiding star is in a box, welp, it's back to conservative firebrand mode.

Until things shift again, which is when he'll revert to milquetoast mode and decry the excesses of Trump.

He's a self-serving jackass and has never been and will never be anything else. He's the Joe Lieberman of the right.
posted by delfin at 9:45 AM on September 29, 2018 [75 favorites]

Just had an obvious and hopeful (or perhaps hopelessly naive) thought: It's a very good thing that the FBI investigation is coming after Kavanaugh's testimony regarding the assault. He was so supremely confident that he and his outright lies would not be given any more scrutiny.

Please, FBI, please take an expansive view of your mandate here.
posted by pjenks at 9:46 AM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

FBI, please take an expansive view of your mandate here.

The mandate is historic.

Keep in mind that the FBI is relatively young, having been cobbled together from parts in the early 20th century. For much of its time it was ruled as a private fiefdom. The dictatorial atmosphere led to bad decisions, infighting, and endless investigations into the private lives of Americans in the mid 20th century. The agency was often regarded as a necessary evil at best and failure at worst.

And here it stands, poised to make decisions with decades-long consequences.

It's come a long way, and J. Edgar Hoover would be aghast at its accession to a scope of power beyond his wildest imagining.
posted by Gordion Knott at 10:02 AM on September 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

So and, too, 36 years ago things were really different. Youthful binge drinking was just on the cusp of being recognized as the hellish, life-wrecking scourge that it so evidently is. It was still semi-okay, hadn't been outed as harmful as much as it would be a couple years after this, much less as much as it has been, now. And "rape" was still stranger rape; date rape was, if my experience is typical, not yet a thing. I didn't hear about it until I was in college, and I'm five years younger. In high school they split up the girls and the boys and we got "self defense class," with my in-retrospect truly fantastically kind and feminist P.E. teacher, in which was introduced the radical notion that sexual assault could be any unwanted touching, not just penetrative. None of us had heard word one about that. And that it was a crime of violence, not sex. I remember the P.E. teacher saying, "babies have been raped. grandmothers. what is sexy about a baby? what is sexy about your grandmother?" I remember this being absolutely novel information and going home and reporting it to my mother as if it were a marvel. But still, they never talked about this in the context of high school parties or people we knew, even to the girls alone. It was all still the old dark-alley, guy in a ski-mask story. We never thought about boys we knew, at least not as I remember, and in college "date rape" was debated in a "does it or does it not exist" kind of way. As in, it was a new concept.

So BK's evident frustration during his tantrum is actually understandable, if you view this from his blinkered, insanely biased point of view. Everything he did at the skis parties he attended was sanctioned and encouraged, the drinking and the sex alike. It was defined as horseplay then. Nobody criticized it. Everybody in town knew about it. It was just what you did, particularly, it was what you did if you were one of the popular boys destined for the ivies and a prestigious career. Now suddenly 36 years later they yank the rug out and start talking about beer as if there's somehow something wrong with the stuff and talking about parties with girls as if they weren't completely natural good clean American fun. It might feel somewhat like a mean trap, if you'd kept your head under a pillow for the last three decades and not followed any developments in contemporary culture.

Which is all of these assholes, none of them has paid any attention. They legit think that this is an unfair midgame rule-change and a total cheat. This is why they can say out loud before cameras "this is worse than what we did to Clarence Thomas," having not even figured out after decades to think about it that you can't legally act like General Halftrack today. This is why Lindsey got so hoppin mad and spittleflecked right along with BK. These are even older good old boys. Their drinking ages were lower, their madonna/whore complexes more generally accepted, their grayedout, brownedout, and blackedout party activities likely similar to BK's. They keep admitting this. "If he can be thrown out for that then who among us is safe?" And they legitimately think it's unfair because the rules have been changed on them and they're startled because they haven't kept up. So it's more than just their money they're worried about, for once.
posted by Don Pepino at 10:03 AM on September 29, 2018 [99 favorites]

Kavanaugh promises he'll practice an "original intent" interpretation of the constitution when he can't even engage in an honest "original intent" interpretation of his own yearbook.
posted by gerryblog at 10:08 AM on September 29, 2018 [93 favorites]

If we are going to believe Kavanaugh is a rapist, we'd have to believe the President paid hush money to a porn star or the ex-Speaker of the House was a child rapist. It's completely ridiculous.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:12 AM on September 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

Everything he did at the skis parties he attended was sanctioned and encouraged, the drinking and the sex alike. It was defined as horseplay then. Nobody criticized it.

And, y'know, if that had been their approach from the beginning, people would, if not forgiving or accepting that worldview, at least sympathize with it. If there was an acknowledgment that "this was allowed, it wasn't right, we know that now, we didn't know it then", then at least it's be clear they know how society has changed. The defiance and the continued unwillingness to accept that this was wrong I'd what makes it so very unacceptable, with the subtext that "we were right then, and we're right still".
posted by jackbishop at 10:26 AM on September 29, 2018 [46 favorites]

Gordion Knott: J. Edgar Hoover would be aghast at its accession to a scope of power beyond his wildest imagining.

He would? Really?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:28 AM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

He was so supremely confident that he and his outright lies would not be given any more scrutiny.

He may not be worried so much about the investigation finding details of the assault - which he says doesn't remember happening, and all his reactions connect with the entitled concept of, "but that was just fooling around; nobody [important] got hurt; you can't mean to be dredging up a bit of high-school shenanigans now!"

He may be worried that a bit of digging will uncover something much more unsavory, like a pregnancy, or someone who got permanently injured, or bribes to local police, or huge amounts of property damage (like if someone burned down a house or destroyed a high-value car), and so on. He could be aware that "ohshit, that was the summer we broke into the mayor's house and threw all his curtains in the fireplace."

... Or, I suppose, he could just be aware that several of his teen- and college-age activities are now called "rape," and he really doesn't want to face them, and especially very very much doesn't want to face criminal charges.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 10:30 AM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

We need to stop acting like pointing out Republican hypocrisy is some sort of gotcha. They know, they know that we know, and they think it's adorable that we think they should be ashamed of it.

I disagree. Pointing it out won't make any difference to the hypocrites - you're right, they are unashamed. But there are a LOT of people who don't really distinguish between Democrats and Republicans, who vote on impressions of personality, who pay little attention to the details of politics but still vote. Pointing out the appalling hypocrisy of the Republicans can shift the perception of those voters, so it's worth noting the hypocrisy ourselves and pointing it out to others.
posted by kristi at 10:35 AM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

Sen. Cassidy (R - LA) urges FBI to respond to Kavanaugh assault accusations by...investigating Democrats.

He accuses the Democrats of -- gasp! -- coordinating their opposition to this appointment and reveals a lot more than he probably realizes and intended when he says "“This is part of a broader Democratic strategy to coordinate, and in that coordination, to seek to delay,” Cassidy said on Fox & Friends. “How many more charges can be brought out to smear this man, to create legitimate doubts in the minds of some of the American public?” [emphasis added]

So, Senator, you're afraid that an investigation of Mr. Kavanaugh will reveal things that will legitimately give people reason to doubt his fitness for the position? You don't say?
posted by lord_wolf at 10:43 AM on September 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

Gordion Knott: J. Edgar Hoover would be aghast at its accession to a scope of power beyond his wildest imagining.

He would? Really?.

Aghast, and secretly thrilled with.
posted by Gordion Knott at 10:50 AM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

So and, too, 36 years ago things were really different.

This argument is really offensive. It isn't that they didn't know that violent sexual assault was wrong. We've know that for more than 2500 years. It's recorded in the Greek tragedies. There are plenty of boys from that time in the 1980s who knew it was wrong and never assaulted anyone.

So stop making excuses saying they didn't think it was wrong. They knew it was wrong. The difference is that they also knew they would pay no price for doing wrong because of their privilege. And they still think that today. What they are offended by is anyone challenging that privilege.
posted by JackFlash at 10:50 AM on September 29, 2018 [116 favorites]

Which is all of these assholes, none of them has paid any attention. They legit think that this is an unfair midgame rule-change and a total cheat.

Unfair, right. We tried nicely asking men not to rape us. We asked for men to not consider themselves entitled to our bodies. We asked that people teach their sons about consent and treating women like human beings. Since the ones who did these things didn't listen, didn't care to change, and continued to cover for each other, this is how it must be. Some men will suffer for the change of rules, because we know nothing will change otherwise.
posted by Miss Cellania at 10:51 AM on September 29, 2018 [24 favorites]

Insightful take on social performance and masculine loyalty from Judith Donath in the Atlantic: The Secret to Brett Kavanaugh's Specific Appeal
posted by recklessbrother at 11:03 AM on September 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted; folks please think about whether you can make your point in a way that omits describing the specific sex acts.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:33 AM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

Today I canvassed for the first time. It wasn't my ideal way to spend a weekend morning but it felt so good to be supporting a great candidate. I hear so much despair here (and everywhere else). I want to encourage people to get out and make positive effort alongside other people. It has made a world of difference for my mental state. There are so many things to do. For example, my candidate said he could use some data entry help in addition to canvassing and phone banking.

If you need help identifying ways to volunteer in your area, my memail is open. Tell me where you are located and I would be delighted to send you a couple of ways (with contact info/links) to get involved.
posted by mcduff at 11:42 AM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

So stop [...] saying they didn't think it was wrong.
I didn't, technically, say that and probably wouldn't put it quite that way because I don't think they thought that way and I don't think they think that way, now, but since you put it that way, did they think it was wrong? That would imply they thought about it, at all, which is arguable (and please please let Judge's ex girlfriend and Ford be right that Judge did, and let the FBI force it out of him somehow). If in an odd sober moment when they weren't at football practice they thought back on some one of their "gatherings" at which they committed sexual assault, did they consider the assault "wrong" the way non-sociopaths would, the way most kids would, the ones you cite who did know it was wrong because obviously it was wrong how could it be anything but monstrously, impossibly wrong? I think that line of thought would be unnatural to them. What they would be thinking would be more like, Okay, sure, the girl was at the party and drinking with us but yes, right, had any parents or cops been in the room we wouldn't have jumped on top of her that way, true. Because it was "wrong."

If they thought about the wrongness at all, they'd've probably considered it "wrong" the way they thought smoking or drinking was "wrong." Do you think they thought what they did to Renate was wrong? They did it in print. Did whichever senator it was who said in front of the camera "this is worse than what we did to Clarence Thomas" consider what Clarence Thomas did to Anita Hill wrong? Then why is Thomas on the court, and why is that guy saying that on camera? Why is Lindsey Graham practically spitting out his own tongue he's so infuriated by the suggestion that we take a few days to find out whether somebody is a rapist before we put him on the court? Is this the way people behave if they understand that sexual assault is much, much more wrong than smoking and drinking before it's legal to smoke and drink? I submit that it is not. I do not think these people understand the concept of wrong.
posted by Don Pepino at 11:48 AM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

but since you put it that way, did they think it was wrong

I recently read John Krakauer's book Missoula, which is about rape allegations and the University of Montana's handling of them. After reading the description of one incident, I was absolutely sure the young man in question had no idea he'd just committed rape.

If you think of how many of us who were girls and young women in the 80s (and not just the 80s, but this is my cohort) didn't realize we'd been assaulted, or raped, or that we hadn't actually given consent, well. It seems even less likely that the boys involved realized it.
posted by Orlop at 11:59 AM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

WaPo, February 4, 1990: AREA HEADMASTERS WARN PARENTS OF STUDENT PARTIES

The headmasters at seven of the Washington area's most prestigious private schools have written a letter to the parents of all students warning them that students are regularly throwing large, unsupervised parties where "excessive drinking and sexual license are common."
...
The two-page letter was signed by the headmasters from Georgetown Preparatory, Landon, Gonzaga College High, National Cathedral, Holton-Arms, St. Albans and Sidwell Friends schools.

posted by triggerfinger at 11:59 AM on September 29, 2018 [35 favorites]

The LA Times reports the FBI is taking quick action on the supplemental background investigation:

The FBI moved immediately given the short time frame. By Friday night, agents had sought to schedule an interview with one of two other women who, after Blasey Ford went public, made accusations of their own about alleged assaults dating to Kavanaugh’s days in high school and at Yale University, according to two sources with knowledge of the investigation who asked to remain unidentified given the sensitivity of the matter.

FBI investigators contacted the attorneys for the woman and asked to interview her “as early as tonight,” according to one of the sources. Her attorneys countered with a later time, but the interview could occur this weekend, the sources said.

And @realDonaldTrump confirmed, "Just started, tonight, our 7th FBI investigation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh", without, of course, mentioning any details.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:02 PM on September 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Trump administration moves to block Wilbur Ross deposition, in which the administration will request a stay from the Supreme Court to prevent Ross from being deposed about the citizenship question on the census. What are they so afraid of? It's like they know his justifications were obvious lies and they're trying to run out the clock.
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on September 29, 2018 [16 favorites]

The Texas Tribune is hosting "TribFest", a series of panels and podcasts. Right now you can livestream the end of a panel discussion by Steve Schmidt, Virginia Heffernan, Mark McKinnon, and others called "The Kavanaugh Download". Starting at 4:30pm is "Mulling Mueller" with Joaquin Castro, Mieke Eoyang, Evan McMullin, Adam Schiff, Michael Schmidt, Virginia Heffernan (moderator).

Full set of streaming links are here. Full schedule is here.
posted by pjenks at 12:03 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

NYT, At Times, Kavanaugh’s Defense Misleads or Veers Off Point, which is as close as the Times is going to get to saying he lied in an A1 fact check, including rather un-Timeslike discussions of "boofed" and "Devil's Triangle."
posted by zachlipton at 12:09 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Philosopher Martha Nussbaum in WaPo:

The roots of male rage, on show at the Kavanaugh hearing

Anger. Envy. Disgust. All infused with fear.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:11 PM on September 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

I submit that it is not. I do not think these people understand the concept of wrong.

You submit! Bullshit. They knew what was wrong. He locked the door so no one could come in and stop them. He turned up the music so no one could hear. He put his hand over her mouth so she couldn't get help.

To say they didn't know what was wrong is conceding too much. They knew damn right it was wrong and that's why they are lying about it today.
posted by JackFlash at 12:11 PM on September 29, 2018 [45 favorites]

I think the wrong/not-wrong discussion is semantic and involves a lot of cognitive dissonance on the part of the men being discussed. They reveled in a sincere belief of having a right to do things that they also believed were evil for anyone, including themselves, to do. It doesn't make sense, but that's human minds for you.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:17 PM on September 29, 2018 [23 favorites]

All this "but what if they didn't know it was wrong" is so infuriating to me. OF COURSE they knew it was wrong. THAT'S WHY THEY DID IT. They did it because it was wrong, to prove their power, to prove they could get away with it.

Also: fixating on the thought processes in these violent criminals' minds is himpathy. Who the fuck cares what they are or were thinking? Oh no, the world has changed, wah wah wah cry me a fucking river.

Give me 2000 words of detailed analysis of rape survivors' thought processes and then we can talk.
posted by medusa at 12:19 PM on September 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

you don't have to know what is wrong in order to know what will get you in trouble.

and you don't know for a fact what other people have in their revolting heads, no matter how sure you are that you do.
posted by queenofbithynia at 12:20 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

Mod note: Don Pepino, let's just shelve the "oh but maybe they didn't know" thing. Doesn't seem likely to take us anywhere useful, does seem likely to lead to a lot of anger and repeating graphic descriptions here to make the point about how bad this was, and how about let's just not continue down this road.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 12:22 PM on September 29, 2018 [15 favorites]

This image of the Executive, the Judiciary, and the Legislative captures everything
posted by infini at 12:25 PM on September 29, 2018 [29 favorites]

From TPM Reader TH …

It feels like eons ago, but last night I flashed on that video of the Parkland father trying to have a word with Brett Kavanaugh. The video of the women confronting Flake must have brought it to mind. What struck us at the time was how dismissive Kavanaugh was, even disdainful. When I first saw it, I didn’t want to make too much of it. In retrospect, it reveals who he really is; when he feels someone is beneath him, he treats them with contempt. He did it with the father, with girls when was younger, with U.S. senators, and he’s doing it with the American people.

posted by kirkaracha at 12:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [72 favorites]

In retrospect, it reveals who he really is; when he feels someone is beneath him, he treats them with contempt.

Besides the whole being-a-violent-rapist thing: dude had a public tantrum in front of an audience of a hundred million over a brief delay in making him a lifetime supreme court justice. That alone tells you who he is.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:49 PM on September 29, 2018 [79 favorites]

It feels like eons ago, but last night I flashed on that video of the Parkland father trying to have a word with Brett Kavanaugh.

Parkland Student Jaime Guttenberg's Dad Called Out Brett Kavanaugh for Playing the Victim. "He deeply misunderstands what it means to be a victim.”

Parkland victim's father to Kavanaugh: 'Your life and family are not ruined.' "Try having a child murdered by a weapon that you refer to as 'common use.' You will get through this and hug both of your children tonight."
posted by homunculus at 1:00 PM on September 29, 2018 [84 favorites]

Kavanaugh Has Become a Hero to the Incel Community

One of the most heartwrenching things about this past decade has been learning just how many flavors misogyny comes in. That's why this new affinity of incels for Kavanaugh is, frankly, surprising to me — I thought they would think of him as kind of a super-chad. But perhaps, after all, they see him as the real Supreme Gentleman.
posted by adamgreenfield at 1:23 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

In the wake of Trump's mixed messages about Iran at the U.N., the Washington Post reports: U.S. Orders Evacuation of Diplomats From Iraqi City Of Basra, Citing Threats From Iran

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo ordered the evacuation of U.S. diplomats stationed at the U.S. Consulate in the Iraqi city of Basra on Friday, citing “threats to our personnel and facilities” from Iran and its proxies.

The closure of the consulate, one of three U.S. posts in the country, follows at least two rocket attacks apparently targeting the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and the mission in Basra this month. While the rockets landed harmlessly, away from the facilities, they underscored heightening tensions between Washington and Tehran as Iraq tries to form a new government.

“Given the increasing and specific threats and incitement to attack our personnel and facilities in Iraq, I have directed that an appropriate temporary relocation of diplomatic personnel in Iraq take place,” Pompeo said as he held a flurry of meetings with foreign counterparts in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly.[...]

A senior Iraqi security official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk publicly, said the decision to close the consulate in Basra did not appear driven by any credible threat from Iran or the militias it supports.

“We are not aware of any intention by Iran or its friends in Iraq to attack American diplomats or the consulate,” the official said. “This is another unfortunate move that is making Iraq the playground for America’s quarrel with Iran.”

Earlier this week, @realDonaldTrump tweeted, "Despite requests, I have no plans to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Maybe someday in the future. I am sure he is an absolutely lovely man!"
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:26 PM on September 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Yeah I twigged at the Parkland father video too but even so there was a big part of me that was convinced that Kavanaugh turned from the guy and sicced security on him because Kavanaugh thought that the father was going to make a huge scene and Kavanaugh didn't have the heart to confront a grieving father. Now it's like more like well he did it because he could because he's a fucking asshole who thinks gun control activists are losers. Just as he thought he could ask senators during the hearing about their drinking habits because they had the temerity to challenge his habits.
posted by angrycat at 1:32 PM on September 29, 2018 [14 favorites]

So if, BIG IF, Kavanaugh gets in to the SCOTUS anyway, is there any mechanism to remove him from this life time appointment? Could the other members of SCOTUS do anything, other than ostracize him at the cafeteria?
posted by Pantalaimon at 1:34 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

Don Pepino, let's just shelve the "oh but maybe they didn't know" thing. Doesn't seem likely to take us anywhere useful, does seem likely to lead to a lot of anger and repeating graphic descriptions here to make the point about how bad this was, and how about let's just not continue down this road.
Okay, will do, but I'm getting misread, probably because I'm communicating poorly which is probably because I need to go pull weeds for a while instead of looking at this nightmare steadily for days on end. I did not mean at all to excuse these fratboys or their crimes. They all of them need to be put under the jail, whether they're judges or senators or whatever.
posted by Don Pepino at 1:35 PM on September 29, 2018 [24 favorites]

Impeachment by majority of the House + removal by 2/3 of the Senate. Good luck with that.

The other option, as we've discussed in every thread since the nomination, is court-packing.
posted by tivalasvegas at 1:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Heather Havrilesky, The Cut, Mediocre White Man Falls Apart and Is Promptly Put Back Together

A woman who conducted herself in that manner couldn’t get an assistant-manager job at Forever21, let alone on the Supreme Court. A black man who behaved that way would be dragged out of the room, or worse — much, much worse. The real insult of Thursday’s Kavanaugh hearings was the contrast between Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s calm, respectful, endlessly helpful testimony and Kavanaugh’s absolute master class in white-male privilege. Here was the accused, called to vouch for his character. We should’ve seen a solemn, cautious man indicating, with his words and his demeanor, that he takes both the accusations lodged against him and his future role as a Supreme Court Justice seriously enough that he’s more than willing to submit himself to the process at hand without becoming temperamental or defensive.

Instead, what we witnessed was a man who clearly believed that he could rage, cry, joke about beer, and parade his family’s suffering before our eyes with impunity. He believed that getting into Yale Law School somehow meant that he wasn’t capable of sexual assault. The people who get into Yale are the good people, he meant. He didn’t even deign to argue that point. He just assumed that we were all on the same page. He assumed that we’d think his demeanor was casual and likable, that drinking too much only made him relatable, that yelling only meant that he had clearly been wronged, that crying meant that he was in pain and someone should pay for that. He assumed that we would join him in feeling that someone should be held accountable for bringing a man like himself so low.

@LemieuxLGM: What if at the Benghazi hearings Hillary has just started ranting and raving about Republican conspiracies (which would, in that case, actually be accurate!) and then told a whole bunch of obvious lies on various subjects while insulting the members. My radical thesis is that people like Bret Stephens and Andrew Sullivan would not have found this very convincing.

HuffPost, What It Was Like At C-SPAN As Women Flooded The Network With Stories Of Sexual Abuse, an interview with National Treasure Steve Scully on one of the most striking things that happened Thursday: call after call during the breaks of women who spontaneously decided to pick up the phone and tell their stories. As Scully notes, many of them were in their 50s, 60s, or 70s recounting what happened when they were young teenagers, what they remember.

YouGov is out with some early numbers from post-hearing polls, and we're nowhere:

Americans said, 41 to 30 percent, that they believed Ford was telling the truth; they were split, 35 percent to 38 percent on whether Kavanaugh was similarly honest. (Those who reported having personally watched at least some of the hearings ― a majority of the country ― said, 52 to 36, that they believed Blasey. They were split 44 to 46 on whether they believed Kavanaugh.)

Results were deeply divided along partisan lines: Seventy-three percent of Democrats, and just 14 percent of Republicans, believed Blasey was telling the truth; 74 percent of Republicans, and just 11 percent of Democrats, believed Kavanaugh. Even controlling for partisanship, there were some modest differences between men and women’s reactions ― 69 percent of Republican men said they felt Blasey was not telling the truth, compared to 59 percent of Republican women who said the same.

Because YouGov’s surveys are conducted using an online panel, the pollsters were able to compare respondents’ latest opinions against what they’d actually said prior to the hearings. More than 1,000 of those surveyed in the most recent poll were also interviewed for an earlier Economist poll taken after the allegations broke. Of those, 80 percent hadn’t changed their minds on whether or not Kavanaugh should be confirmed. The rest hadn’t shifted one particular way, either ― 15 percent of those who’d supported him said they were now opposed or undecided, but 16 percent of those who’d opposed him said they were now unsure or supportive. The formerly undecided who came off the fence also split about evenly, according to YouGov, leading to “almost no net movement in one direction or the other.”

posted by zachlipton at 1:41 PM on September 29, 2018 [45 favorites]

What is this point of this useless cruelty? Also, the fucking UN headquarters is in New York City, why do these assholes keep trying to defund, discredit, frustrate and undermine the institution that most plainly acknowledges the (rapidly atrophying) US hegemony in international relations? (Except, of course, when we need permission for some military adventure.)

Cruelty is the point. There's no strategy being followed, it's purely personal. Which means it's Trump. He has no strategies, only urges he follows. He hates the UN (already did but they just laughed at him so it's a tender wound) so they get punished. He doesn't need their help asserting hegemony, he doesn't need anybody's help doing anything. He doesn't need a State Department, he'll handle all the negotiations himself & win them all over with his superior mind & winning personality. He is the Center of the Universe, it all revolves around Him.
posted by scalefree at 1:42 PM on September 29, 2018 [14 favorites]

So here's my prediction: Kavanaugh is going to withdraw from consideration. Trump will nominate Amy Coney Barrett immediately (who is arguably scarier than Kavanaugh), because she will further the wingnut agenda and because she's a woman there's no possibility of sexual harrassment accusations and will therefore stand a higher chance of being confirmed before the midterms.

Only thing I don't know is.... I am sure Trump nominated Kavanaugh because of the guarantee that Kavanaugh would not hold Trump accountable for any of his crimes. I don't know where Barrett stands on that.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 1:47 PM on September 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

The other option, as we've discussed in every thread since the nomination, is court-packing.

Break the filibuster, rewrite the 1800's law setting SCOTUS at 9 then push through some progressive Justices. It can be done but it would take a very strong willed & unified leadership to see that through against the Right screaming bloody murder all the way.
posted by scalefree at 1:49 PM on September 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

because she's a woman there's no possibility of sexual harrassment accusations

There's a much lower possibility but that's not the same as no possibility. If anybody reading this thread has been abused by a woman, I don't want them to feel like their experience of abuse is invalidated.
posted by showbiz_liz at 1:53 PM on September 29, 2018 [73 favorites]

So here's my prediction: Kavanaugh is going to withdraw from consideration.

I can't imagine this happening. He's been groomed for the Court for 30 years and, I think, strongly feels this seat is his by right. His whole adult life has been leading to this moment. If Kavanaugh was going to withdraw it would have been before the public testimony.

The only way he withdraws is if another accuser comes forward with physical as opposed to testimonial proof. Photographs or something.
posted by Justinian at 1:56 PM on September 29, 2018 [21 favorites]

Impeachment by majority of the House + removal by 2/3 of the Senate. Good luck with that. The other option, as we've discussed in every thread since the nomination, is court-packing.

There's also the option of stopping all Supreme Court proceedings by surrounding it with a literal wall of human flesh and throwing our bodies into the gears of the odious machine, etc etc etc.

An illegitimate and malevolent and unaccountable institution that openly threatens human life and wellbeing should not be allowed to function, full stop.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:01 PM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

After the tirade, I see the possibility of him withdrawing the same as the possibility of Trump resigning: essentially zero, no matter what happens. He'd sooner scream that whatever evidence comes forth is in some way faked.

Maybe Trump pulls him out, if the winds change. As it stands, the tantrum was a strategic way for getting Donald to see Brett as an extension of himself, which is the only way for him to respect anybody. So that impression on Donald's part would have to change first.

My money says this all comes down to the Senate.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:05 PM on September 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

Americans said, 41 to 30 percent, that they believed Ford was telling the truth; they were split, 35 percent to 38 percent on whether Kavanaugh was similarly honest.

This split is utterly unsurprising, unfortunately. The right's entrenched tribalism and instinctive deference to authority (and misogyny) give Kavanaugh a benefit of the doubt that he objectively does not deserve.

For instance, MeFi's un-favorite #neverTrumper contrarian Andrew Sullivan claims to have found both Ford's and Kavanaugh's testimony credible, to such an extent that he indulged in primo both-sidism before saying he "decided to put this accusation in a box" and oppose Kavanaugh because of his demonstrable and unworthy judicial deference to presidential power.

Sullivan does, however, warn, "But if this nomination falters, Kavanaugh will be a clarion call for Republicans to turn out. It could help them in November." Expect Trump to emphasize that at his rally tonight.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:05 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

There's a much lower possibility but that's not the same as no possibility. If anybody reading this thread has been abused by a woman, I don't want them to feel like their experience of abuse is invalidated.

Sorry. You are absolutely right. I was trying to say that Trump could not imagine a woman being accused of sexual abuse and I did not words properly.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 2:06 PM on September 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

NBC News, wow-this-story-has-six-bylines, White House limits scope of the FBI's investigation into the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh

The White House is limiting the scope of the FBI’s investigation into the sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, multiple people briefed on the matter told NBC News.

While the FBI will examine the allegations of Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez, the bureau has not been permitted to investigate the claims of Julie Swetnick, who has accused Kavanaugh of engaging in sexual misconduct at parties while he was a student at Georgetown Preparatory School in the 1980s, those people familiar with the investigation told NBC News. A White House official confirmed that Swetnick's claims will not be pursued as part of the reopened background investigation into Kavanaugh.
...
Instead of investigating Swetnick's claims, the White House counsel’s office has given the FBI a list of witnesses they are permitted to interview, according to several people who discussed the parameters on the condition of anonymity. They characterized the White House instructions as a significant constraint on the FBI investigation and caution that such a limited scope, while not unusual in normal circumstances, may make it difficult to pursue additional leads in a case in which a Supreme Court nominee has been accused of sexual assault.
...
Investigators plan to meet with Mark Judge, a high school classmate and friend of Kavanaugh's whom Ford named as a witness and participant to her alleged assault.

But as of now, the FBI cannot ask the supermarket that employed Judge for records verifying when he was employed there, one of the sources was told. Ford said in congressional testimony Thursday that those records would help her narrow the time frame of the alleged incident which she recalls happening some time in the summer of 1982 in Montgomery County, Maryland.

Two sources familiar with the investigation said the FBI will also not be able to examine why Kavanaugh’s account of his drinking at Yale University differs from those of some former classmates, who have said he was known as a heavy drinker. Those details may be pertinent to investigating claims from Ramirez who described an alleged incident of sexual misconduct she said occurred while Kavanaugh was inebriated. Ramirez's lawyer said Saturday that she had been contacted by the FBI and would cooperate.

These. Fucking. Assholes.

It's just...they know how transparently awful this makes them look, how clear it is they're trying to hide things, and they don't care.
posted by zachlipton at 2:07 PM on September 29, 2018 [91 favorites]

A guy with a rumored gambling problem is the least likely person to withdraw from his nomination to the Supreme Court.
posted by klarck at 2:10 PM on September 29, 2018 [33 favorites]

On a somewhat lighter note, Samuel L. Jackson has seen the Pulp Fiction-Kavanaugh testimony mash-up: Funny as hell, but there’s nothing funny about his Lying Fratboy Ass!!!
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:12 PM on September 29, 2018 [34 favorites]

Matt Yglesias: "I am a strict textualist who believes in adhering to the original public meaning of “Ralph club,” “boof,” and “devil’s triangle."
posted by JackFlash at 2:18 PM on September 29, 2018 [36 favorites]

the bureau has not been permitted to investigate the claims of Julie Swetnick

Avenatti had better be on the airwaves all week about this.
posted by saturday_morning at 2:19 PM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

Wow. Isn't there some crossing of the streams there, the executive branch interfering with a request made by the legislative branch? Is the WH just banking on well of course the senate will accept the limitations it look at them.
posted by angrycat at 2:21 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

It's not a separation of powers issue; technically this is an entirely voluntary investigation by the executive branch, at the non-binding request of the Senate. The way to get it changed would be the same way they were forced into accepting that request in the first place - by making enough noise that the swing Republicans have to acknowledge the obvious for a moment.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:25 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

> The most face-saving thing for all involved would be for Trump to fire Bart-O and reference the fussbudget snotflinging tantrum he threw on TV the other day.

> Kavanaugh was embarrassing, and I don’t think it played well for Trump, no matter what the WH leaks said. I think he’s starting to distance himself and move on.

My take on Kavanaugh's performance was it was entirely for Trump. I kept thinking of that Fox news guest who looked into the camera to speak directly to Trump. I heard the same view articulated by a Political Science professor on NPR Friday morning. What other option did have? Act contrite, apologize for his youthful misconduct, acknowledge his faults?

Embarrassing doesn't disappointment Trump. Weakness does. Human decency does. If Kavanaugh had acted like a human being, very few of his critics would have changed their tune on him. I wouldn't have. He was totally unqualified in my book after his grovelling appearance at press conference announcing his nomination. And his acknowledgement of misconduct would have just strengthen the calls by those (me included) that he withdraw. I think Kavanaugh and his team calculated that if he came off as soft, Trump would dump him.

So I took this as his Hail Mary. And it looked for a while after it was tossed like the ball was in the hands of the GOP in the end zone. But with the week days and new FBI investigation, it got knocked up into the air again. And it's still up in the air in the end zone at the time of this comment.
posted by bunbury at 2:29 PM on September 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

The nominee is selected by the president and the president directs the vetting of the nominee by the FBI. Don McGahn is the White House Counsel and he is the one who pushed Trump into selecting Kavanaugh. McGahn is the one directing who the FBI can interview and who they cannot.

The Senate can request an investigation but they cannot compel one. The Senate only has the power to say the investigation is inadequate and refuse to confirm if not satisfied.

McGahn's objective is to provide the most minimal investigation to provide cover for Republicans Senators to confirm the appointment. There is nothing compelling McGahn to turn over everything the FBI finds. The Senate can only request that he do so.
posted by JackFlash at 2:30 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

This is a test for Rosenstein.
posted by yesster at 2:31 PM on September 29, 2018

This is a test for Flake. If he and Murkowski and Collins are serious, they can simply say they won't accept this. They and their votes control this process.
posted by chris24 at 2:33 PM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

Given that "limited scope" was in the original request, I have no doubt in my mind that this is precisely what Flake and the other Republicans hoped would happen -- getting the Swetnick matter to be ruled out, while ostensibly keeping their hands clean of having done so (because they never defined "limited", the White House did).

Doktor Zed: On a somewhat lighter note, Samuel L. Jackson has seen the Pulp Fiction-Kavanaugh testimony mash-up.

For the record, credit goes to a filmmaker named Oscar Boyson. I have watched it multiple times every day, it feels like a necessary punctuation mark.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:35 PM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

Yeah, Flake's not going to show up outraged that it was limited in this way. (Actually, it almost seems more likely he will and then he'll vote 'Yes' anyway.)
posted by glhaynes at 2:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

Nancy Pelosi calls Kavanaugh hysterical, says he’s not fit to serve on the Court.

I am trying to imagine how good that must have felt, and I’m afraid my imagination is not up to the task.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [145 favorites]

And this is not a test for anyone. This is the bad guys, being bad guys and refusing to do anything in good faith. We will not ever convince them to do the right thing. We have to force them to stumble into allowing the right thing to happen.

We keep up the pressure. The press, and Avenatti, continue their public, parallel investigations, making it impossible for a critical plurality of the public to pretend that the White House’s Potemkin investigation is real.

We keep going.

Also? Don’t forget that we just learned that gang rape was a routine feature of the culture that produced many of our current leaders. That is fucking earth shaking. There is more to come.

We have to keep fighting.
posted by schadenfrau at 2:42 PM on September 29, 2018 [30 favorites]

How We Know Kavanaugh is Lying by Nathan Robinson at Current Affairs Magazine.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 2:44 PM on September 29, 2018 [46 favorites]

We keep up the pressure.

Exactly. Flake won't do anything until pressed as we saw. We need to raise hell about this and how it makes the investigation a sham.
posted by chris24 at 2:46 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

> But as of now, the FBI cannot ask the supermarket that employed Judge for records verifying when he was employed there, one of the sources was told.

But anyone else can.
posted by stonepharisee at 2:47 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

This can also be phrased, where convenient, as the White House preventing the FBI from clearing Kavanaugh. If they're so convinced that Dr. Ford is lying, surely more record evidence would help prove that.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:50 PM on September 29, 2018 [14 favorites]

This is a test for Flake.

Absolutely. From the NBC story linked above about how the White House is tying the FBI's hands:

The conditions under which the FBI's reopened background check are occurring appears to differ from the one envisioned by Flake, who used his leverage as a swing vote to pressure the Trump administration to order the FBI investigation.

Flake said Friday he thought the FBI should decide the scope of the investigation.

“They’ll have to decide — the FBI you know, how far that goes,” he told reporters. “This is limited in time and scope and I think that it's appropriate when it's a lifetime appointment and allegations this serious and we ought to let people know that we're serious about it.”

If Flake won't call out the Trump administration on this sham, then the electorate will have to call out Flake as one.
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:51 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

If Flake won't call out the Trump administration on this sham, then the electorate will have to call out Flake as one.

Except that Flake isn't running for re-election. So the electorate has no real power to put pressure on him.
posted by NoxAeternum at 3:00 PM on September 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

I just meant contacting Flake now. I should have said constituents.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:04 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

And all the Republicans retiring from congress this year need to understand in no uncertain terms that their actions will follow them for the rest of their careers and into private life.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:06 PM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

The Democratic Coalition... v. Brett Kavanaugh, Complaint of Judicial Misconduct
posted by Glinn at 3:12 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

Their careers at Republican lobbying firms, think tanks and etc? Their private lives at the yacht club?
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:14 PM on September 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

NBC News, wow-this-story-has-six-bylines, White House limits scope of the FBI's investigation into the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh

No surprise the corrupt WH will hamstring this faintest of "efforts" to "get to the truth" of this scumbag. My question for the smart people is this: if The Internet found this data and reported it to the FBI investigators, could they use it?

As an example, say a former cashier had the timesheets for the grocery store from then or something. Could they, y'know, provide them? Could Josephine Internet interview Biff McWitness and provide the recordings to the investigators?
posted by petebest at 3:18 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

Or, alternatively, could Josephine document her interview with Biff and transmit her findings to Dr. Ford or another witness who is within the scope of inquiry, who could then read them into the record during an FBI interview?
posted by contraption at 3:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

Did we not previously establish that the Democratic Coalition is kinda shady and dumb?
posted by Artw at 3:45 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

The FBI isn't going to do anything. This buys us a week to put other kinds of pressure on the Republicans (and Manchin) and get a couple of them to commit to voting no. That's all. Nobody is going to save us, and we have to save ourselves.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:54 PM on September 29, 2018 [27 favorites]

The polls are going to be bad.
posted by glhaynes at 4:01 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

Didn't Avenatti claim he was going to produce corroborative witnesses by now? Sitting on this stuff is extraordinarily counter productive at this point.
posted by Justinian at 4:07 PM on September 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I am sure Avenatti is doing what he can within the limits of client protection. His first obligation is to her.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 4:13 PM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

Grauniad and Boston Globe: Elizabeth Warren will 'take hard look at running for president' in 2020

“I watched powerful men helping a powerful man make it to an even more powerful position,” Warren said. “And I thought, ‘Time’s up.’ It’s time for women to go to Washington and fix our broken government and that includes a woman at the top,” she said, and the crowd of more than 500 burst into applause. Then she dropped her news.

“After November 6 I will take a hard look at running for president,” Warren said.

posted by Westringia F. at 4:16 PM on September 29, 2018 [59 favorites]

As Josh Marshall has noted, these actions are those of a clumsily, slow-motion attempt at a cover-up. The Republicans trying to install this creeper into the USSC have taken every opportunity to do the absolute minimum they think they can get away with. They are desperate to keep any serious inquiry into the circumstances from happening.

A couple of weeks ago, the situation seemed much worse, as there was no investigation of any scope. Our pressure is working, and every day counts. Immediate, continuous demands for a real non-partisan investigation may force their hand a bit.

To that end, have a Saturday letter for fax, email, or phone:

Senator [name],

I object completely and utterly to the latest White House interference in the investigation into the credible allegations of Brett Kavanaugh's sexual assaults. Their efforts to arbitrarily limit witnesses and the requisition of relevant documents is appalling, undemocratic, and clear evidence of a slow-motion attempt to cover up something major.

I believe that:

* Deborah Ramirez and Julie Swetnick should be able to testify to Congress and have their accusations investigated by a credible, non-partisan, professional investigation.
* The White House must cease any direction of the investigation immediately. It is a huge conflict of interest for the WH to control the investigation in anyway
* The means by which Ed Whalen came to know the legal name of Kavanaugh's associate "Squi" when he made a libelous Twitter post

[For Democrats: Please also pressure Senators Machin, Heitkamp, Collins, Murkowski, and Flake in particular to let them know that I will actively fund their challengers and characterize them as supporters of sexual assault should they vote to confirm Kavanaugh.]

[For Republicans: Since you are supporting the confirmation of an alleged sexual predator, while simultaneously stonewalling a non-partisan, independent investigation into the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh, I will fund your electoral challengers and characterize you as a supporter of sexual assault. I might reconsider my position should vote against confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the United States Supreme Court.]

Sincerely,
[your name]

posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 4:18 PM on September 29, 2018 [34 favorites]

Grauniad and Boston Globe: Elizabeth Warren will 'take hard look at running for president' in 2020

I'm excited about Warren for a number of reasons. I think her continued focus on anti-corruption policies are a fantastic starting place for a broader progressive agenda. Get the $ out of politics as best you can, and that will make everything else easier. And if you can mount a presidential campaign around anti-corruption, and I think in the context of Trump the issue is large enough in people's minds that that would be successful, you actually create a mandate for that reform.

I also think having the first female president after such a disgraceful man holding the office would be an enormous cathartic relief, although fortunately there's no shortage of talented female candidates.

Her voice shaking slightly with anger...

And boy I would love to watch a Warren-Trump debate. I think she could say the things all of us have been hoping someone would say about this overgrown schoolyard bully.
posted by tarshish bound at 4:35 PM on September 29, 2018 [35 favorites]

Just 11 months ago I posted this excerpt of Al Franken questioning a facebook representative in the senate. That got 122 favorites here, from all of you. I even finished that comment with 'I love you Al'. It's ok, we didn't know at the time. Now we know, and he's gone. Al Franken's behavior is unacceptable, and defending his behavior is unacceptable. That's the difference.

We know there are monsters in every group, including ours. But when they're discovered, we don't rally around and defend them. Franken was one of my favorite senators, and I was so disappointed with him because he really was a star. But unacceptable is unacceptable, and I hope we never compromise our integrity just to maintain power in the shameful way conservatives do again and again. Being hypocrites is their job.
posted by adept256 at 4:54 PM on September 29, 2018 [48 favorites]

Senate Judiciary referred the fake accusation against Kavanaugh from the Rhode Island guy with the weird twitter account to DOJ for a criminal false statements investigation.
posted by zachlipton at 5:04 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

It's been an awful week (I want to say for any girl over the age of zero) but Harris and Klobuchar were bright spots.
posted by sophieblue at 5:06 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

Adept256: I was sorry to learn that Al Franken harassed women, because I thought he was a good and very eloquent Senator. But, he had to go, because Democrats have ethics and principles and we put our money where our mouths are. Or so we should, anyway! (I will say, I am sick to death of "waah waah meanie Kirsten Gillibrand." She's not Cersei Lannister, she can't make Franken or anyone just walk the plank. Franken resigned, voluntarily.)

But we have a good bench - Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, and many others. We don't have to settle for "he's our SOB" anymore. I think this benefits us with otherwise apathetic voters. They can't say "well the Democrats just talk the talk, they don't walk the walk, both sides are the same, I'm just going to stay home." By and large, Democratic voters care about principles. If we act like we at least mean well and are trying and really taking action, rather than just making mouth noises, that helps us get out the vote.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 5:08 PM on September 29, 2018 [17 favorites]

The most face-saving thing for all involved would be for Trump to fire Bart-O and reference the fussbudget snotflinging tantrum he threw on TV the other day.

There seem to be two theories about why Trump nominated Kavanaugh over the candidates recommended by the Federalist Society. One is that it was a quid-pro-quo for securing Justice Kennedy's resignation. The other is that it's because Kavanaugh (after driving an investigation into a former and a potential future President) had signalled that he wouldn't support the indictment of a future one. It's very possible that by doing so Kavanaugh was playing the long game. If so, it paid off handsomely.

I don't believe the first theory: Trump never pays his debts, on principle, and he only uses favours as leverage. If he was doing this as because of an earlier agreement he would be on TV right now talking about Kavanaugh's weak and equivocating performance. He'd be cutting him loose: not just to avoid collateral damage, but because he revels in humiliating people.

So I firmly believe that Trump, “increasingly isolated”, sees Kavanaugh as a lifeline against investigation, indictment, and impeachment. I don't know how his name came to be suggested to the President (maybe it was Kennedy!) but now he's Trump's own choice. Trump has exclusive control over nominations; he could absolutely threaten to withhold future nominations or, I don't know, nominate Ivanka instead. And what does he have to lose? A 4-4 split would be better for Trump than a possible 5-4 against him.

The Republicans are stuck with Kavanaugh because Trump is a horrible, vindictive, pool of pus; he's a giant toddler and they're threatening to take away his security blanket. He would absolutely blow up the midterms if he felt like it. He's not going to cut Kavanaugh loose unless he feels personally threatened.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:11 PM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

And boy I would love to watch a Warren-Trump debate. I think she could say the things all of us have been hoping someone would say about this overgrown schoolyard bully.

You mean like when HRC did the same?
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 5:17 PM on September 29, 2018 [83 favorites]

Turns out Kavanaugh was approved in 2006 to his current lifetime appointment along party lines (R) and despite the ABA downgrading him to 'qualified,' from today's WaPo The Fix article by Avi Selk:

The group’s judicial investigator had recently interviewed dozens of lawyers, judges and others who had worked with Kavanaugh, the ABA announced at the time, and some of them raised red flags about “his professional experience and the question of his freedom from bias and open-mindedness.”

“One interviewee remained concerned about the nominee’s ability to be balanced and fair should he assume a federal judgeship,” the ABA committee chairman wrote to senators in 2006. “Another interviewee echoed essentially the same thoughts: ‘(He is) immovable and very stubborn and frustrating to deal with on some issues.’”

A particular judge had told the ABA that Kavanaugh had been “sanctimonious” during an oral argument in court. Several lawyers considered him inexperienced, and one said he “dissembled” in the courtroom.

They had reservations then, and I would be interested in hearing how those ABA committee members felt now about O'Kavanaugh's performance over the past twelve years. Oh also, take a wild fucking guess at which Senate Judiciary Committee member jokingly dismissed the ABA's further recommendations back then. Gold standard my ass grumble grumble grumble...

Also, is anyone else surprised that this particular WH administration is limiting the scope of an investigation to exclude one of their people's financial history? Wasn't it just two weeks ago that we were wondering about a bunch of debt he accrued suddenly disappearing?

RE onefellswoop's trumpspam (which I saw today too, ugh), it's such a joke that they're comparing big donors for Ds to many little donors to Rs....AND THEN OFFERING TO DOUBLE OR TRIPLE THE DONATION AMOUNT. The cognitive dissonance makes my head spin.
posted by carsonb at 5:23 PM on September 29, 2018 [28 favorites]

The idea that in the not-too-distant future I might have to decide whether to cast my presidential primary vote for Harris or Warren is literally giving me life today. What an incredibly welcome tough dilemma that would be.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 5:26 PM on September 29, 2018 [31 favorites]

Trump's rally has been more of the usual insanity, but, um:

@ddale8: !!! Trump on Kim Jong Un: "I was really being tough and so was he. And we would go back and forth. And then we fell in love. No really. He wrote me beautiful letters. They were great letters. And then we fell in love." Trump says the media is going to scold him for saying he fell in love with Kim Jong Un, but it's true, and it's easy to be boring and presidential, but his way is better.

This was also rather on the nose: Trump again mocks George H.W. Bush's motto "thousand points of light," saying it's boring, and it's a saying "which nobody has really figured out." It's the name of a Bush nonprofit promoting volunteerism.
posted by zachlipton at 5:30 PM on September 29, 2018 [16 favorites]

"Nobody's ever had a presidency like this," Trump says." –@ddale8

stopped clock, etc
posted by entropicamericana at 5:35 PM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

..And then we fell in love." Trump says the media is going to scold him for saying he fell in love..

That added remark about the media sounds like he's intentionally baiting the media to pick up the story. Presumably to draw attention away from the Ford/Kavanaugh story dominating the news.
posted by p3t3 at 5:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Here's a PDF of the ABA's downgraded recommendation of O'Kavanaugh (from well-qualified to just qualified). ABA has investigated him 4 times now, since he was originally nominated in 2003 and re-nominated in '05 and '06, and interviewed 90+ character witnesses back then.
NYT OpEd from just before his partisan Senate approval: An Unqualified Judicial Nominee
AP report on the aftermath (via WaPo): Kavanaugh Confirmed U.S. Appellate Judge
posted by carsonb at 5:37 PM on September 29, 2018 [16 favorites]

In Forbes, Morgan Simon asks, What do big banks have to do with family detention?
Just a friendly reminder that under this administration immigrants* are criminals.

*kids; families
posted by carsonb at 5:47 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

I still have trouble with why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh. The idea that Trump likes his views on POTUS being untouchable is somewhat compelling, but I doubt he's the only candidate they could dig up that would have these views.

When Kavanaugh was nominated for his current seat in 2006, Democrats tried to stop him and he was confirmed on a party line vote. The Republicans know that Kavanaugh is seen by Democrats as a partisan operative and they must have known Democrats would fight against him in a way that they didn't against someone like Gorsuch.

Just a theory: Republicans saw a protracted fight over a SCOTUS nomination as a good way to drive turnout. Which makes sense because what else do they have? So they picked the one guy that they knew Democrats would fight hard against.
posted by duoshao at 5:51 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

You mean like when HRC did the same?

Exactly! I want some more of that. Trump rarely has to answer to anyone, it seems...
posted by tarshish bound at 5:53 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

So they picked the one guy that they knew Democrats would fight hard against.

Leaving aside arguing about the feasibility or wisdom of such a reverse psychology strategy, we know it isn't the case because McConnell specifically told Trump that Kavanaugh was the least confirmable of the short list and advised him to pick someone else. I can't remember whether McConnell wanted Hardiman or Kethledge but it was one of those two.
posted by Justinian at 5:55 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

I still have trouble with why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.

I'm also perplexed, but I think I'd frame it as why Republicans are so stuck on defending Trump's bad ideas. I don't think anyone but Trump even wanted to nominate Kavanaugh, and yet once he did, they're all willing to die for him.
posted by p3t3 at 6:03 PM on September 29, 2018 [8 favorites]

Whose Boat Is This Boat?: Comments That Don’t Help in the Aftermath of a Hurricane (amazon)

100% of The Late Show’s proceeds will be donated to The Foundation for the Carolinas, The One SC Fund, The North Carolina Disaster Relief Fund, and World Central Kitchen.

Whose Boat Is This Boat? Comments That Don’t Help in the Aftermath of a Hurricane is a picture book made entirely of quotations from President Donald Trump in the wake of Hurricane Florence. It is the first children’s book that demonstrates what not to say after a natural disaster.

The Late Show skit the book is based on.
posted by adept256 at 6:03 PM on September 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

I still have trouble with why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.

Because absolute power is at the very goddamned core of GOP ideology and getting an obvious monster confirmed to the supreme court despite broad opposition is a demonstration of that power. It's a dominance display that must be completed.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:10 PM on September 29, 2018 [37 favorites]

I don't think it's possible for Trump to be made to see that Kavanaugh is bad news politically. Not as long as Kavanaugh is the sort of man who throws tantrums on live TV.

In Trump's mind that actually doesn't compute: anyone who is that Trumpish, and went to Yale, right out of central casting, so smart, and YELLING YELLY YELLY has to be seen by the nation as the right sort of guy, because Trump is similar to that, and people love him, right? Or, even if people kind of dislike Brett, fine, but he's not boring, right? Trump conceptualizes Americans as caring a lot about that factor, too. He'll dismiss any polling as fake because it's obvious to him that Americans want a loudmouth.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:24 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

I just saw that Kavanaugh's dad is still alive, which makes his breaking into gasping, lurching sobs when talking about how his dad likes calendars way more normal.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:25 PM on September 29, 2018 [80 favorites]

The idea that Trump likes his views on POTUS being untouchable is somewhat compelling, but I doubt he's the only candidate they could dig up that would have these views.

Well, where are they then? Apparently nobody on the Federalist-approved list has a similar record. It's probably a pretty rare position among conservative judges, particularly ones young enough to have been appointed subsequent to the investigation of Bill Clinton. Kavanaugh got a pass on his comments because he had actually been involved in Clinton's prosecution, but other critics of the attempted indictment would have looked as if they were attacking the Republican Party.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:26 PM on September 29, 2018 [1 favorite]

I can't remember whether McConnell wanted Hardiman or Kethledge but it was one of those two.

Trump axed Hardiman because he had a background of legal aid for immigrants early in his career and speaks Spanish, even though his rulings as a judge have been anti-immigrant. But his main objection was that Hardiman didn't go to Harvard or Yale law schools. Turns out Trump the populist is an elitist snob. Who knew?
posted by JackFlash at 6:26 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

So despite all his talk of getting into Yale because he busted his butt, it turns out good ol' Brett is a legacy. There's absolutely zero chance that Brett did not know he was a legacy and that this status substantially increased the chances that he would be admitted to Yale, of course. Yet another lie from this lying POS. I really hope Dems move to impeach him for perjury, for this and his other lies, if they ever, by some miracle, hold the requisite number of Senate seats.
posted by longdaysjourney at 6:28 PM on September 29, 2018 [76 favorites]

You know what would immediately improve Supreme Court nominations? A stipulation (achieved by attrition) that at least 8 distinct law schools must be represented on the Court (that is, you can only have two who have the same alma mater), and at least 7 of those seats must be filled by public law school grads. NO MORE HARVARD OR YALE FUCKERS FOR FORTY YEARS. (Sucks to be you, Stanford! Sucks to be you, Duke! Sucks to be you, Chicago! Sucks to be you, NYU! Those two private school seats are always going to be Harvard and Yale!) Bring on some Michigan, some UNC, some Boalt Hall, some UVA, some UT-Austin, some UMinn. BRING IT. Make the top aspiring lawyers of their generation GO TO FUCKING PUBLIC SCHOOL.

Even more radical would be returning to the same number of justices as there are circuits (11 geographical circuits, plus the DC circuit and the federal circuit, for 13) and require each justice to have gone to law school in the circuit he represents and have served on that circuit's appellate court. (Although the 9th circuit should really get double representation since it's twice the size of the next largest and has twice as many judges.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 6:41 PM on September 29, 2018 [147 favorites]

> The idea that in the not-too-distant future I might have to decide whether to cast my presidential primary vote for Harris or Warren is literally giving me life today. What an incredibly welcome tough dilemma that would be.

I thought Gillibrand was the chosen one.

But, yes, as a Californian who voted for her, I couldn't be prouder of Harris. She's one of the few reasons I cling to for not wanting to burn this whole timeline down. But then again, this is California. She'd get elected in any timeline.
posted by bunbury at 7:02 PM on September 29, 2018 [4 favorites]

Trump axed Hardiman because he had a background of legal aid for immigrants early in his career and speaks Spanish, even though his rulings as a judge have been anti-immigrant. But his main objection was that Hardiman didn't go to Harvard or Yale law schools.

The more bits and pieces revealed about Trump like this, it becomes clear he is more than just a knee-jerk "don't like brown people" racist, and more of a full-on eugenics Nazi racist.

It fits into his whole management philosophy of pitting people against each other to reveal the "strongest," and even to his interest running Miss Universe. There's the misogynist creepy dressing room pervert angle too, but pageants totally fit into that eugenics mindset of ranked beauty and superiority.

Not to mention the rumors of his bedside Hitler speeches, the fact that a lot of his immigration policy was supported and informed by eugenicists (Maddow link), etc. He loves elites, but mainly the ones with "good dna."
posted by p3t3 at 7:13 PM on September 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

Oh yeah, Trump as eugenicist has been pretty well established.
posted by Miko at 7:31 PM on September 29, 2018 [17 favorites]

And boy I would love to watch a Warren-Trump debate. I think she could say the things all of us have been hoping someone would say about this overgrown schoolyard bully.

Trump's already shown his hand with Warren & there's only one card in it - "Pocahontas." Just like "Lock her up!" he'll hit it again & again & again. I just don't think it'll play nearly as well. First it doesn't make a very good chant & second the mood of the country is much less forgiving of overt racism & sexism of the kind Trump deals in. I don't think it's a trick that'll work nearly as well the second time around.
posted by scalefree at 7:46 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

I think he also doesn't have the judgement or expertise to decide who's qualified for any given job, and he isn't willing to trust the people who do (and honestly, doesn't have the judgement or expertise to figure out who would be able to determine that), so he goes for the simplest, stupidest indicators of qualification: elite educational credentials, determined in the simplest, dumbest way (ie Harvard or Yale, even in instances where those aren't the best schools in a person's area of expertise); whether someone seems loyal to him; whether someone looks right for the job.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:47 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

I don't want the SCOTUS to require specific law schools, or even specific categories of law schools - as much as I'd love to see a broader representation, I don't want aspiring judges to spend their time acquiring credentials from multiple schools in the hopes of being appointed, and I don't want to see the bizarre politicking I'd expect in trying to assemble a list of judges that excludes all the ones from the schools already represented on the court.

But I could definitely support "one from each circuit, who's served in that appellate court." Some judges might be qualified in two circuits, I suppose? But mostly not. It'd work nicely to make sure there's a broad range of legal theories, and that the combined court has heard cases from almost every state, and is familiar with the tricky laws and weird cases that each district is prone to getting.

It'd need to be phrased to cover the transition period before the circuits are all represented - maybe something like, "president shall choose someone who has served on the appellate court from a circuit not already represented on the SCOTUS; if all circuits are represented, president may choose any current or former circuit court judge" or whatever is appropriate. (If someone has served on 3 different circuits' appellate courts, they'd count for all three.) (Yeah, not likely, but let's not assume that "unlikely" doesn't need a contingency plan.)
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:00 PM on September 29, 2018 [17 favorites]

Well now I'm more confused.

@RealDonaldTrump: NBC News incorrectly reported (as usual) that I was limiting the FBI investigation of Judge Kavanaugh, and witnesses, only to certain people. Actually, I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion. Please correct your reporting!

posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 8:00 PM on September 29, 2018 [12 favorites]

Trump's already shown his hand with Warren & there's only one card in it - "Pocahontas."

In a debate, I'd love the moderator to say, "No racial slurs allowed; if you use that term, your mic will be cut off and your image will be pixelated to avoid lipreading."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:02 PM on September 29, 2018 [20 favorites]

@RealDonaldTrump: NBC News incorrectly reported (as usual) that I was limiting the FBI investigation of Judge Kavanaugh, and witnesses, only to certain people. Actually, I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion. Please correct your reporting!

And there's Avenetti's invitation to the party on behalf of his client! On one hand, Trump should shut up and stop digging himself deeper. On every other hand he should keep tweeting, because it makes the investigator's job much easier!
posted by mikelieman at 8:08 PM on September 29, 2018 [3 favorites]

@realDonaldTrump's fake news accusations against NBC are a classic smokescreen tactic. Since NBC has no on-record sources and won't reveal their anonymous ones, Trump can say whatever he likes about their story's veracity.

Incidentally, the Trump or Not Bot calculates only a 69% chance this was really written by him. Compare that to the 97% chance he composed this afternoon's tweet attacking Sen. Blumenthal as a "Total Phony!"
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:09 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

But I could definitely support "one from each circuit, who's served in that appellate court."...It'd work nicely to make sure there's a broad range of legal theories,

Definitely opposed to this notion, which, geographically speaking, seems like an ideal way to produce the Handmaid's Tale even faster.
posted by Miko at 8:14 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

Flake figured he couldn't win a batshit MAGA primary

I think he just doesn't want to piss off all the people he is going to be getting rich by lobbying in six months.

McConnell is evil, but he can work the system, and reportedly he didn't want Kavanaugh based on him being the toughest to confirm. That right there gives Trump the motivation to push him through, since as Kendzior is often pointing out, the authoritarians do the flagrant things in plain sight precisely as a performance of their power and immunity, and what could be a better demonstration of power and DGAF than ramming a highly compromised, political-operative, alcoholic rapist onto the Supreme Court?
posted by Rumple at 8:18 PM on September 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

Definitely opposed to this notion, which, geographically speaking, seems like an ideal way to produce the Handmaid's Tale even faster.

I like to keep my goals reasonable. 200 years of only women on the High Court. That'll make up for the first 205 years when it was just men*

*Don't hate my math.
posted by mikelieman at 8:18 PM on September 29, 2018 [27 favorites]

Only women would be an improvement, but it would be no guarantee in itself of reproductive freedoms or human rights. The problem's baked into our geographic crust.
posted by Miko at 8:27 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

And there's Avenetti's invitation to the party on behalf of his client!

Former FBI special agent Frank Montoya to MSNBC's Joy Reid: "One of those things that I would absolutely state up front is if there are any folks out there that have anything to provide to this investigation, they don't need to wait to be asked. They can go knock on the FBI's door, they can go to the nearest field office, they can call that field office. They can make their voices known."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:28 PM on September 29, 2018 [61 favorites]

The Oregonian has some reporting on Swetnick that may go beyond petty dirt-scrounging and reveal why she may not be getting much traction. Summary: her former employer sued her for lying on her resumé (about her educational credentials and work experience), and claimed she engaged in sexual misconduct herself while making "false and retaliatory allegations that other co-workers had engaged in inappropriate conduct toward her."

The suit was later dropped, and Avenatti insists it was a bogus charge to punish her for speaking out, but I can see why she's more problematic than Ford despite her security clearances.
posted by Superplin at 8:32 PM on September 29, 2018 [10 favorites]

Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan talks about Kavanaugh's lies (too long to quote it all here): "as we (@ohahl @minjaekim22) show in our research, obvious (“common knowledge”) lies can be effective tools for proclaiming deeper truths to those who are primed to hear them."
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:38 PM on September 29, 2018 [19 favorites]

Rebecca Traister, NYT op-ed, Fury Is a Political Weapon. And Women Need to Wield It: What the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh showed us about who gets to be angry in public.

There is no pull-quote that can do this justice, just give it a read.
posted by zachlipton at 8:44 PM on September 29, 2018 [38 favorites]

@RealDonaldTrump: NBC News incorrectly reported (as usual) that I was limiting the FBI investigation of Judge Kavanaugh, and witnesses, only to certain people. Actually, I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion

Former Obama associate White House counsel Ian Bassin: "Note to @FBI: whatever instructions White House staff gave you, the President’s tweet below is actually (no, really I’m not kidding) an order from the President. DOJ’s legal view is that a presidential order need not take any special form; if the president orders it, it counts."
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:15 PM on September 29, 2018 [82 favorites]

SNL Cold Open [video]: Matt Damon as Brett Kavanaugh

Which is really not so much comedy at all as a re-enactment of what happened Thursday.
posted by zachlipton at 9:19 PM on September 29, 2018 [23 favorites]

And boy I would love to watch a Warren-Trump debate. I think she could say the things all of us have been hoping someone would say about this overgrown schoolyard bully.

A debate is a circus and Donald Trump is a clown. There's everything to lose for Warren and nothing to win.

Public debate is not dialectic.
posted by klanawa at 9:25 PM on September 29, 2018 [32 favorites]

Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy warned high schoolers, as the toxic fight over confirming Brett Kavanaugh to replace him on the court continues, that the country is seeing the "death and decline of democracy."
posted by Artw at 9:42 PM on September 29, 2018 [2 favorites]

He did not, however, explain what he meant or who he blamed.
posted by scalefree at 9:47 PM on September 29, 2018 [9 favorites]

He ought to blame himself.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 9:50 PM on September 29, 2018 [34 favorites]

"death and decline of democracy"

I agree that a Senate majority representing a mere 18% of the population voting to confirm a Supreme Court nominee whose views on issues of substance are not shared by a majority of the country represents a significant decline of democracy.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:52 PM on September 29, 2018 [72 favorites]

obvious (“common knowledge”) lies can be effective tools for proclaiming deeper truths to those who are primed to hear them.

Something similar seems to me to be happening when I hear Republicans say that they believe Ford was attacked but also believe Kavanaugh didn't do it. I don't think that's what they mean at all. I think they mean he did it, but it doesn't matter because they feel he's a good guy. I've even heard this from Republicans on the radio as both of their statements can true at the same time, which... no they can't.

Regardless of whether you feel that Kavanaugh could have both committed this crime as a teenager and then gone on to be a model judge, the Republican response to Ford's accusations has been unacceptable. His near constant lying about matters small and large, his unwillingness to have his previous law opinions made public, or have Ford's accusations be investigated, shows he's incapable of being honest or balanced. He has failed to show himself to be Supreme Court material.
posted by xammerboy at 10:06 PM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

when trump sends his nominees, he does not send his best people.
they are bringing corruption. they are bringing crime. They are rapists. and some of them I assume are good people
posted by growabrain at 10:43 PM on September 29, 2018 [95 favorites]

I agree that a Senate majority representing a mere 18% of the population voting to confirm a Supreme Court nominee whose views on issues of substance are not shared by a majority of the country represents a significant decline of democracy.

One thing that Corey Robin, whose perspective on US history has been eye-opening across the last two years, consistently reiterates is that American fascism has never had to take the form of overthrowing the government. The United States Constitution, and our attitude towards politics in general, has made it possible to establish everything from concentration camps to systematic genocides in perfectly legal and system-approved ways. Ditto too the establishment of extremist minorities in government, who can usurp all three branches by each one's very nature (i.e. the Senate, the electoral vote, and the entire dumpster fire that is the Supreme Court).
posted by rorgy at 10:53 PM on September 29, 2018 [26 favorites]

Eoin Higgins, on Twitter: Herewith, a thread of the comments Democratic members of the Senate made on Kavanaugh's nomination to the DC District Court — comments that might seem familiar in light of the last month.

This is absolutely wild. Kavanaugh took seven months—seven months!—to respond to written questions, not replying until after the 2004 elections were over. There's more here, too, but it all revolves around this seeming pattern of the man being a slippery rodent fuck.
posted by rorgy at 11:03 PM on September 29, 2018 [40 favorites]

In a debate, I'd love the moderator to say, "No racial slurs allowed; if you use that term, your mic will be cut off and your image will be pixelated to avoid lipreading."

To make it fair, the candidate's entire sentence will be removed, and will instead be read aloud by "Lil' Sweet" the Diet Dr. Pepper CGI spokesman, with every offensive term replaced by an auto-tuned "Diet Docta!" and a clip of Lil' Sweet doing a spin move.

This is the debate format we deserve.
posted by Slap*Happy at 11:09 PM on September 29, 2018 [11 favorites]

I agree that a Senate majority representing a mere 18% of the population voting to confirm a Supreme Court nominee whose views on issues of substance are not shared by a majority of the country represents a significant decline of democracy.

Is this a reference to Kavanaugh? I don't know where the 18% figure comes from but it's not currently accurate. Texas, for example, is almost 9% of the population and both Cornyn and Cruz are Republicans. Rubio is from Florida, so take half of that population and you're at 12% just from those three senators. You pass 18% when you add in Toomey (PA), Portman (OH), Perdue (GA), and Isakson (GA). That's only 7 out 51 Republican Senators.

Yeah you start getting into some really small % on the smallest states, but it's still another 34 Senators on top the 18% from the first 7 guys. I'm sure it's a minority of the population but it isn't an 18% minority.
posted by Justinian at 11:17 PM on September 29, 2018 [6 favorites]

So, they are a gang. Same dynamic as a street gang but with more money, power, and privilege. But, still just a gang.

How about “cartel”?
posted by Autumnheart at 11:19 PM on September 29, 2018 [5 favorites]

This is a test for Flake. If he and Murkowski and Collins are serious, they can simply say they won't accept this. They and their votes control this process.

There's a lot of cynicism here about Flake, and it's totally understandable. Even after announcing they would not seek re-election, he and Corker have chickened out on nearly every opportunity to be decent human beings, with seemingly very little at stake (unless you think Russian hackers have dirt on them, which is frankly not crazy - but seems more likely with Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul.)

But here's the bottom line -- Flake changed his mind either Thursday night or Friday, either because of the shit show in the hearing or because one or more women told him about their personal traumas. However cynical you might be, there was and is no profit in him gumming up the nomination, especially after he had already announced he supported it. It was all set.

So, of course Kavanaugh may get confirmed anyway. Obviously huge pressure is being brought to bear to make sure that happens. But saying that it's all fixed and the one-week delay is a sham makes no sense. If that was the case, they just would have sailed though with the committee vote Friday, procedural vote today and final vote Monday or Tuesday.
posted by msalt at 11:21 PM on September 29, 2018 [13 favorites]

> Rebecca Traister, NYT op-ed, Fury Is a Political Weapon. And Women Need to Wield It: What the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh showed us about who gets to be angry in public.

There is no pull-quote that can do this justice, just give it a read.

Rebecca Solnit wrote a book review about Traister's new book, Good and Mad: The Revolutionary Power of Women’s Anger, as well as Brittney Cooper's Eloquent Rage: A Black Feminist Discovers Her Superpower and Soraya Chemaly's Rage Becomes Her: The Power of Women’s Anger. Here's Solnit's piece:

All the Rage: What a literature that embraces female anger can achieve

I thought it merited its own thread, so I made a post about it.
posted by homunculus at 11:22 PM on September 29, 2018 [46 favorites]

The Oregonian has some reporting on Swetnick that may go beyond petty dirt-scrounging and reveal why she may not be getting much traction. Summary: her former employer sued her for lying on her resumé (about her educational credentials and work experience), and claimed she engaged in sexual misconduct herself while making "false and retaliatory allegations that other co-workers had engaged in inappropriate conduct toward her."

If you read the article, it has every hallmark of petty dirt-scrounging. More specifcally, every aspect of the lawsuit described in the article fits with the classic pattern of a meritless employer counter-suit filed as a bargaining chip after an employee claims discrimination:

1) It was dismissed with prejudice a month later, with no money exchanged and Webtrends paying court filing fees;
2) the "sexual misconduct" they claim against her was "innuendo" she spoke to two men while out for drinks. She was not a supervisor. So, she made some slightly off-color joke which they are calling "sexual misconduct";
3) this lawsuit sued her for "defamation" for her sexual harassment claim against two different employees, so it's clear who was retaliating against who;
4) on the educational credentails, who knows? No evidence presented on either side. But why did they sue over that, instead of just firing her? Sounds a lot like random dirt thrown into a hardball lawsuit. Odds are 99% they filed this to pressure her to drop her claim.

Also important context: Oregonlive.com is the website of The Oregonian, a right-wing newspaper so crippled by budget cuts that it only prints four days a week now. Clearly they did no reporting on this article and just regurgitated the legal complaint and the press release from Mitch McConnell's office.
posted by msalt at 11:41 PM on September 29, 2018 [79 favorites]

Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy warned high schoolers, as the toxic fight over confirming Brett Kavanaugh to replace him on the court continues, that the country is seeing the "death and decline of democracy."

It's funny (not really), how as common as it is in so many trials for friends and family of the accused to claim whatever action couldn't have been done by the accused since they know he's really a good person, that the really privileged among us only think that actually means something when it's them making the claim. The rest of the time they ignore it for being so obviously biased.

This too furthers my suspicion that the accounts of Kennedy's retirement were pretty much accurate. There being little need for blackmail when one can appeal to the vanity of a self-important white man. And Judge 5-4 has given ample evidence his main concern is over his own damn legacy as "the key vote" on the court. Gorsuch and Kavenaugh were to cement that legacy, giving Kennedy two former clerks to carry on his influence. While I certainly wouldn't say blackmail is beyond Trump or an impossibility here, the very idea that he'd have material to get a Supreme Court Justice do to his bidding makes him more valuable on the court than off it. That's the key to blackmail after all, which you lose when the person no longer has power to help you.

The whole affair of investigating Kavanaugh then works entirely in Trumps favor. If the FBI finds anything Trump not only gets to pick a replacement of his choosing without worry about any deal with Kennedy, but he'll also get ammunition to raise further doubts about the FBI and justice department to his supporters to make any action against him seem all the more illegitimate to the true believers. Still, I'll be awfully pleased if that lying sack of shit doesn't reach the court, but the relief will only be a temporary one I fear.
posted by gusottertrout at 11:45 PM on September 29, 2018 [7 favorites]

last episode i offered first person anecdata concerning outrageous and commonplace drinking among not-too-dissimilar prep schools in the region but a few years later in rebuttal to some quoted character's fauxtrage (does that convey?) about teh youths & teh booze & the surely-nots. the mods didn't delete it (hi y'all; respect; keep it up). but there's been some quality monday-morning-judiciary-committeeing in here since that hearing, and there's an omission, or a missed line of impeaching questioning, that i couldn't quite pin down until, reading nathan j. robinson's excellent "how we know kavanaugh is lying"--which Jonathan Livengood linked above--it hit me: the little pas-de-deux with whitehouse about a drinking game.

i did not, before reading robinson's editorial, know that devils triangle commonly denoted something particular about group sex. but i have some passing familiarity with drinking games. (full disclosure: i have been the owner of both a "big book of farts" -- from spencer gifts, if memory serves -- and a reference book of drinking games which, alas, i no longer seem to possess. i do not recall bouf in particular from among others such as the "going-up-stairs-" or the "musical fart" in the former; nor do i recall any drinking games in the latter book. i do seem to recall reading the book and disregarding it as stupid. my milieu played "caps" mostly).

people who intend to not risk drinking "too much" do not play drinking games.
people who do not routinely so risk drinking "too much" do not immortalize their special variant of quarters in the yearbook.

now, likely whitehouse was after the sex act congruent with some of the behavior alleged by his victims, and not directly trying to impeach the careful, i'm a good guy who likes to have a manly beer with his buddies from time to time (glossing over that he was underage throughout highschool, except for the last few months of his senior year if he should be within the district rather than in maryland, when all this drinking was relevant to the charges at hand) layer of obfuscating bullshit he'd been brazening through with his patriotic beer-liking, but did not routinely drink "too much" lie. in dodging the sex-act interpretation, kavanaugh concedes the routinely-drinking-to-excess ground. whitehouse asks him how "devil's triangle" is played & he says some bullshit. whitehouse presses him a little

kav: you ever played quarters?
WH: no.
kav: OK. it's a quarters game.

the end. but what an end. who assumes that the rules of an admittedly common drinking game--quarters--are common knowledge (& allegedly celebrates an obscure variation of quarters involving three glasses in his yearbook)? someone immersed in a culture of excessive drinking.

say it again, y'all: someone immersed in a culture of excessive drinking. say it three times.

kinda wish someone would have followed up later: you have testified, your honor, that devils triangle, in your yearbook, denotes a drinking game. what is a drinking game? when was the last time you played a drinking game? &c.

glancing over the foregoing, i don't mean to impugn all those perfectly healthy binge drinkers out there. for the record, i don't think having played drinking games throughout high-school and college should necessarily disqualify anyone from any particular office. but misrepresenting them as innocent few beers with buds would be lying under oath to the senate judiciary committee, wouldn't it?
posted by 20 year lurk at 11:57 PM on September 29, 2018 [18 favorites]

golly: thinking too hard about drinking games conjured up memories of all kinds of terrifying guys that don't usually come to mind when i'm remembering my hardest about drunken excess in high-school, an unexpected trove of adolescent bullies & their henchteens. yeech.
posted by 20 year lurk at 12:07 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

Thread by Maura Quint @behindyourback on the twitters:

I want to tell a story: Once in high school, I felt insecure, I put on a tight top too low cut and dark lipstick I didn't usually wear. I went to a party drank terrible wine coolers, too many of them. A man asked me if I wanted to leave, I slurred, said maybe. He said "maybe"?
\\
And then he said "maybe isn't yes" and I went home that night, un-assaulted, because I hadn't talked to a rapist at that party. […]

The thread continues, with lots of replies from women and men with related anecdotes, some sad (because low expectations), some sweet, some funny or surprising. I think modeling good behaviour is important and I wish there were more of it. Maybe there's an alternate universe where the Georgetown Prep yearbooks are filled with references to anecdotes like these.
[via @onlxn]
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:00 AM on September 30, 2018 [68 favorites]

@RealDonaldTrump: NBC News incorrectly reported (as usual) that I was limiting the FBI investigation of Judge Kavanaugh, and witnesses, only to certain people. Actually, I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion

Former Obama associate White House counsel Ian Bassin: "Note to @FBI: whatever instructions White House staff gave you, the President’s tweet below is actually (no, really I’m not kidding) an order from the President. DOJ’s legal view is that a presidential order need not take any special form; if the president orders it, it counts."

Is the scope of an investigation like this - if there even is such a class - secret? It would seem apt to ask the FBI what scope it is actually operating under.
posted by Devonian at 3:42 AM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.
It's because as I was attempting ineffectually to say yesterday, it's personal. They have skin in the game. They all came up in that exact way he did, where as long as somebody is NOKD, they're not a person the way you and I are and what you do to them isn't wrong. Look at that letter the DC preps sent out in 1990 warning parents (please. like the parents didn't know.) that kids were having 500-person open parties in the parents' absence "open to pretty much anyone" (NOKD, shudder) where there were three problematic things:
1. drinking
2. sexual license/"teenage hormones"
3. violence

Nowhere on that list do we see rape. Nobody named the actual problem in 1990, much less 1960-whenever when Lindsey Graham was in school. It was much easier to ignore the actual problem because paying attn to the actual problem would put the entire structure in danger. They'd have to prosecute the football team and god forbid kick the frats off campus and the headmasters themselves, maybe our parties were smaller, but we had beach week, too, ah, school days. Why, Princeton would lose its supper clubs!

Kavanaugh is at risk of being outed; that puts them and their whole demonic rapist-promoting machine in danger.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:59 AM on September 30, 2018 [24 favorites]

>Sociologist Ezra Zuckerman Sivan talks about Kavanaugh's lies (too long to quote it all here): "as we (@ohahl @minjaekim22) show in our research, obvious (“common knowledge”) lies can be effective tools for proclaiming deeper truths to those who are primed to hear them."

From @ewzucker:

"...as suggested by our experiments, he may also be appealing to his fellow traditionalists’ anxiety about threats to their culture. What kind of real American doesn’t like beer, amirite? And what kind of loser doesn’t have too many beers once in awhile? The larger...
... truth then is that those high school hijinks were *good* and it’s wrong for these jerks to now cast aspersions on them.

The politics of the last couple years regularly remind me of Michael Herzfeld's ideas in Cultural Intimacy: Social Poetics in the Nation-State. I wonder if these sociologists have read it.

Key concepts from the book-notes at anthropolojamz:

big question = “what advantages [do] social actors find in using, reformulating, and recastingofficial idioms in the pursuit of often highly unofficial personal goals, and how [do] these actions—so often in direct contra­vention of state authority—actually constitute the state as well as a huge range of national and other identities” (2).

KEY POINT (acc. to Herzfeld) = the idea of the polity­—nation-state, local community, or international body—succeeds to the extent that its formal ideology encapsulates (or incorpo­rates) all the inward flaws and imperfections to which it is offi­cially and ostensibly opposed” (220).

cultural intimacy—”the recog­nition of those aspects of a cultural identity that are considered a source of external embarrassment but that nevertheless provide insiders with their assurance of common sociality, the familiarity with the bases of power that may at one moment assure the disenfranchised a degree of creative irreverence and at the next moment reinforce the effectiveness of intimidation” (3)

disemia—”the formal or coded tension between official self-presentation and what goes on in the privacy of collective introspection” (14).

structural nostalgia—”the longing for an age before the state, for the primordial and self­ regulating birthright that the state continually invoke” (22)

posted by snuffleupagus at 4:17 AM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

Former Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy warned high schoolers, as the toxic fight over confirming Brett Kavanaugh to replace him on the court continues, that the country is seeing the "death and decline of democracy."

Odd. It couldn't be that the decisions by the Supreme Court in Citizens United allowing unlimited money as speech in elections and Shelby County vs. Holder gutting the voting rights act had anything to do with the decline in democracy, could it? No I guess it must be a white guy having problems getting what he thinks he deserves that signals democracy's decline.
posted by rdr at 4:33 AM on September 30, 2018 [93 favorites]

why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.

This may be the answer. They're not so much "stuck on Kavanaugh" so much as they're trying to "get a Conservative guy into the court right away", because:

On next month's SCOTUS docket is Gamble vs US. No 17-646. At stake is the "separate sovereigns" exception to double jeopardy. If the separate sovereigns exception is overruled, people given presidential pardons for federal crimes cannot be tried for that crime at the state level.

Getting Kavanaugh into SCOTUS now ensures that there is a fourth Conservative judge to rule on that case, which would in turn allow Trump to pardon some people in Federal court and render them unassailable in state court as well in one fell swoop.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:58 AM on September 30, 2018 [66 favorites]

Yeah, Kavanaugh’s origins could have come out of a Springsteen song and Republicans would still fight for him if they knew he was a sure bet to insulate Trump from the law. My hunch is that part of the deal for Kennedy retiring was that Kavanaugh would protect Trump. Now Kennedy doesn’t have to taint his legacy by voting for some obvious bullshit law that protects the presidency from prosecution.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:11 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

on the subject of who should be on the supreme court - i say that if we had non-repeatable terms of 10 years, many of our current problems would be reduced - no more loading up the court for a generation with conservatives

the argument that making this so would politicize the process is irrelevant - it is politicized to hell and back already
posted by pyramid termite at 5:23 AM on September 30, 2018 [16 favorites]

"I was really being tough and so was he. And we would go back and forth. And then we fell in love. No really. He wrote me beautiful letters. They were great letters. And then we fell in love." Trump says the media is going to scold him for saying he fell in love with Kim Jong Un

Trump's trolling the media and us, the same way he gave a shout-out to Kayne West when he was exaggerating his record about African-American unemployment. We're not going to take the bait (the same way we're not going to take the bait on Kayne's pro-Trump trolling on SNL).

All in all, last night's rally felt moderate by Trumpian standards, which suggests he's feeling confident about Kavanaugh's chances. Interestingly, he did take a moment to bash Corey Booker, the first time he's done so, as a Kavanaugh cross-examiner and a 2020 challenger. He also lied spectacularly: "I will always fight for and always protect patients with pre-existing conditions. You have to do it. You have to do it." Runner-up: "America is respected again. I just left the United Nations. Believe me, they respect us now again. They all respect us.", which has points deducted because of the "believe me" giveaway.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:42 AM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.

Partly, as others have mentioned, because the Republicans play dominance politics. What matters is that they win, not just because they want to enact their policies, but because they know the importance of demoralizing and depressing their enemies.

Partly because plenty of them have likely also treated women like shit, and they don't want precedent that that's a no-no.

Combining the two, I think the real story here, at least in part, is that the #MeToo movement signifies a huge cultural tipping point—and one of many. #MeToo is not the only modern movement going on today. The anti-gun movement, the anti-police racism movement, the movements in favor of various forms of gay and transgender expression, are all stronger than they've ever been. And there are other movements that are budding that threaten to be even more of a sea change, such as the general movement against trusting capitalism and markets, or against the imbalances of the system itself.

Confirming Kavanaugh serves no major technical purpose. If he doesn't get in, almost certainly the Republicans nominate an equally awful person who gets in instead. But Kavanaugh getting in would serve, in their eyes, as a major symbolic victory: a spit in the face of every single person who believes in these new movements, or who believes that America needs change now more than ever.

I think they're wrong, and I think some of them must know they're wrong. They're energizing the left, not demoralizing them. The fury they've unleashed grows every day it faces any check to its budding power. The more they fight against it, the more powerful it gets, because dominance is not the only mode of power, and is in fact a fairly limited and stupid way of treating it. Solidarity is power too, and it's a far more difficult one to fight.

But they do this anyway, for the same reason they elected Trump and sparked these initial movements in the first place. Because their options, since 2016—since 2008? Since vice president Palin?—have been to either acquiesce to slow, incremental change, or to stave it off using desperate measures that give them temporary power at the cost of accelerating their own demise. The further in they go, the more desperate they become, because all the other soul-sells they gave in to mean that the reaction against them is already howlingly strong.

They want to believe there's a breaking point, but I think they know there isn't one. They want this to be a war that they can win, a war that holds any hope of the other side surrendering. Failing that, all they can do is count the weeks and months that they have power, or hope that the Democrats do what Democrats do best, and somehow do all the demoralizing of their base on their own. But even that won't last forever, as the rage turns on the center-left and its attempts at appeasement. (It will last too long, but it won't last.)

I could be wrong, but that's what I can think to make of this. Partly they want to win, partly they want to save themselves from future allegations, but most importantly they want to do as conservatives have always done, and stand athwart history yelling "Stop!"
posted by rorgy at 5:44 AM on September 30, 2018 [29 favorites]

the argument that making this so would politicize the process is irrelevant - it is politicized to hell and back already

god forbid that we make politics of our politics
posted by rorgy at 5:47 AM on September 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

Alyssa Milano on Being Inside the Kavanaugh Hearing: "It Was Nauseating"
posted by Artw at 5:52 AM on September 30, 2018 [13 favorites]

Kennedy could be concerned that his son at Deutsche Bank is also at risk of indictment from Mueller and wants to give Trump all the pardoning power to let him off the hook. I don't think indictments will spread that far on Trump's business side, but if it does play out this way, we deserve 100 new Mueller probes, SCOTUS impeachment, and investigation of the entire GOP side of the Senate Judicial Committee, hell the entire Senate.
posted by p3t3 at 5:58 AM on September 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

But seriously there is something inordinately frustrating about the seeming Democrat belief that the right way to do politics is to do as little of it as possible, finding compromise with a bunch of hellbeasts because maybe that will somehow make the Hellbeast Party stop existing. As if they will convince the electorate that they're the better party because they know how not to fight, how to be generous, how to use what power they have to try and convince the people whose vision of a perfect world is radically opposite their own that the right place to go is somewhere in the middle. I don't even think the Republicans talked the Dems into doing that; I think they just went about their perfectly reasonable strategy of "go further right than Democrats" and the Dems just kept inching rightward as if to let Republicans know, okay, you can stop now, we're willing to meet you partway there. It's like playing tug-of-war by going halfway towards your opponent and asking them to stop, they got part of what they want, isn't that enough to feel really good?

The entire political system is designed to be, on some level, radical. The United States sparked a war when it came into existence. Every Supreme Court decision, every Constitutional amendment, every transition into a new era of political power, has marked a forcible change from the status quo. Doesn't matter if the transition is rightward or leftward: all we get is this political and cultural tug-of-war, in which people get this idea in their head about what politics should look like, and then we all shift thataways as a culture as the other side tries their damnedest to pull back a little bit. Those shifts are all we get. It feels like we want the End Of Politics the way people a couple decades back wanted the End Of History, with everyone going "Okay, great, this model of the world is exactly the right one, now let's just sit back and let everything incrementally improve."

It doesn't work like that, now or ever. Politics doesn't work like the free market does. (Hell, the free market doesn't work like the free market does.) Politicians can't just sit back and let the dial on the meter slowly twitch itself one direction or the other. The nature of politics is to envision what the world should be, deliberate on steps to get us there, and then find the way of selling that vision to enough people to bring that world into being. "We can't change the way things are! That's too politicized!" Motherfucker, that line of argument is exactly what reactionaries want you to say! They're the ones who hate change in all its forms! Try and maintain things exactly as they are now, and you'll just give them room to revert years and decades of change, going back to the old way things were, since they're still pissed off that they let us bring things as far ahead as they've come.

We need politicians who understand the importance of change, and who recognize that it's their literal goddamn job to convince the American people that that change matters. It's why rhetoric was developed as an art form in the fucking first place. Yes, it's hard to make people collectively believe in a world that doesn't yet exist. That's literally why politics exists as a field in the first place. In my personal ideal world, we successfully primary out every politician on the left who doesn't see that as their explicit duty.
posted by rorgy at 6:00 AM on September 30, 2018 [58 favorites]

on the subject of who should be on the supreme court - i say that if we had non-repeatable terms of 10 years, many of our current problems would be reduced - no more loading up the court for a generation with conservatives

the argument that making this so would politicize the process is irrelevant - it is politicized to hell and back already

The problem is that without lifetime appointments they would need jobs when they are done. And as we can already see from the revolving door with the Fed, Congress, Senate and upper levels of the military that leads to all kinds of basically unprovable corruption via the implicit delayed bribe of future industry jobs.
posted by srboisvert at 6:24 AM on September 30, 2018 [20 favorites]

NYTimes confirms NBC's report that the investigation will be controlled by the White House and specifically limited to exclude key witnesses (Michael D. Shear, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Maggie Haberman and Michael S. Schmidt)

Trumps tweet (and this morning's statements on the Sunday news shows by Huckabee-Sanders and Conway) that the White House has given the FBI "free rein," are just a smoke screen to have it both ways.
posted by pjenks at 6:28 AM on September 30, 2018 [14 favorites]

Joe in Australia: I want to tell a story: Once in high school, I felt insecure, I put on a tight top too low cut and dark lipstick I didn't usually wear. I went to a party drank terrible wine coolers, too many of them. A man asked me if I wanted to leave, I slurred, said maybe. He said "maybe"?
\\
And then he said "maybe isn't yes" and I went home that night, un-assaulted, because I hadn't talked to a rapist at that party. […]
The thread continues, with lots of replies from women and men with related anecdotes, some sad (because low expectations), some sweet, some funny or surprising. I think modeling good behaviour is important and I wish there were more of it. Maybe there's an alternate universe where the Georgetown Prep yearbooks are filled with references to anecdotes like these.

Thanks for that link/thread! I want to wave evidence like this in the faces of everyone who says that men can't be expected to treat women well, and that sexual assault is Just What Men Do, It's Biology. No. It's culture - to be specific, a culture of male privilege and disregard for the boundaries and bodily autonomy of anyone they deem "inferior beings" - women, children, and "lesser" men. As the song goes, you have to be carefully taught.

Conservatives love ev-psych and appeals to what they call human nature and biology; this was in effect all the way back in the days of Reagan and Thatcher. Men who rape? Innate male nature. Poor people? Genetic inferiority. Black lives not mattering? "Human biodiversity." It's the scientific version of the prosperity gospel. And I hope it burns to the ground in the wake of social justice movements.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 6:32 AM on September 30, 2018 [54 favorites]

Key paragraph from the NYTimes article:

The White House has asked that the F.B.I. share its findings after investigators complete [interviews of four people --- Mark Judge, P.J. Smyth, Leland Keyser, and Deborah Ramirez], and at that point, Mr. Trump and his advisers would decide whether to have the accusations investigated further, the people said.

posted by pjenks at 6:36 AM on September 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

Notably, the NYTimes article does not mention FBI interviews with Christine Blasey Ford or Brett Kavanaugh. Has there been reporting that these interviews have taken place?
posted by pjenks at 6:46 AM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I listened to BBC News talking about Philippine President Duterte's nonchalant admission that in all his time in office, his "only sin is the extra-judicial killings".

Duterte's staff and allies are offering two different but complementary explanations in an attempt to tether their President to this plane of reality. Some are saying that the President was merely joking, indulging in a little sarcasm, and so should not be taken literally. Others are saying that the President was letting off steam, speaking out of a very reasonable frustration regarding narcotics traffickers and his political opponents, and so should not be taken literally.

Does all this remind you of anything?

Trump's crimes are not Duterte's crimes. Not yet, and hopefully never. But they are kindred spirits.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:53 AM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

srboisvert: "The problem is that without lifetime appointments they would need jobs when they are done. And as we can already see from the revolving door with the Fed, Congress, Senate and upper levels of the military that leads to all kinds of basically unprovable corruption via the implicit delayed bribe of future industry jobs."

Easily solved: Judges sit for a limited time but get paid at that level for life even when their term ends and they are demoted to the farm leagues.
posted by Mitheral at 6:58 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

If you need a pick me up, just remember: Democrats planning to examine Trump’s tax returns after the midterms
posted by saturday_morning at 7:18 AM on September 30, 2018 [32 favorites]

I love my congressman. Who is ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee and has the power to make this happen if Ds win the House.

@ThisWeekABC
NEW: Rep. Jerrold Nadler says if Brett Kavanaugh "is on the Supreme Court and the Senate hasn't investigated, then the House would have to" investigate "any credible allegation" of perjury and "things that haven't been properly looked into"
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 7:19 AM on September 30, 2018 [52 favorites]

A Democratic House or Senate would have both the power and the obligation to oversee this Executive Branch by means of investigative apparatus and compelled testimony under subpoena. If such an engine brings new facts to light proving unconscionable crimes, the fall of Trump could happen sooner than people expect.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:23 AM on September 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

If you need a pick me up, just remember: Democrats planning to examine Trump’s tax returns after the midterms

the possibility/effectiveness is dependent on whether or not the Blue Wave happens, which is not at all for certain so let's all remember to get our butts out and volunteer (and donate if you can)
posted by Anonymous at 7:28 AM on September 30, 2018

My metaphor yesterday, "they know it's 'wrong' the way they know underage drinking or smoking is 'wrong'" was inapt. Here's a better example of something that is actually wrong, self-evidently wrong to anyone with a functioning conscience but that is not actually punished and therefore not something that a person without a conscience can understand is wrong. What many many many of them did in high school besides assault people for fun whenever they could get away with it and what was then, is now, has always been self-evidently wrong to all people with a functioning conscience was bully other people.

We know they did it then because they still do it now, in front of cameras--Kavanaugh to Klubuchar, the fucker who threw in a shoutout to Clarence Thomas to anyone who's ever been sexually harassed, Lindsey Graham to Homo sapiens from Lucy to the heat death of the universe. What NPR just called "the culture in the 80s" included sanctioned sexual assault under the rubric "what we don't do in front of parents and teachers"--so it was not like drinking and smoking, which aren't really even wrong but which are punished, it was like bullying, which is an evil but which is not punished.

Bullying sometimes kills people; in some cases, that's the bullies' avowed intent, that's why they do it, to drive the loathed person out of the world. Everybody knows that, everybody knows this hideous thing is happening in schools, but bullying has not been a punishable offense until very recently. Bullies aren't punished even now, usually, and in fact the idea that maybe they should be punished is new. At the moment, it's not illegal and bullies continue to prosper as they always have. So in the eighties and before then, we were with what we then called "date rape" where we are now with bullying. We were just figuring out that maybe it was a problem. As with all problems that don't affect the bullies who rule the world, we've done next to nothing about it, of course. But it's still better and less depressing to be alive and looking at this now than it was then, and here's why!

I was surprised that my comments yesterday got read as trying to make excuses for rapists, but I think it's so very awesome that they did get read that way because it proves that the culture really has changed since I was in school, and we're not ignoring this anymore, it's no longer the water we swim in, it's acknowledged as the insane aberration it's always been, these murderous old fuckers polluting the three branches of our current government notwithstanding.

No more bullies. No bullies in the schools, no bullies on the courts, no bullies in government, no bullies on Wall Street. The appropriate environment for bullies is prison.
posted by Don Pepino at 7:30 AM on September 30, 2018 [37 favorites]

(Prison is full of bullies who are in charge of bullying others, whether someone "deserves it" or not. In American life, it's bullies all the way up)
posted by agregoli at 7:48 AM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

why the Republicans are so stuck on Kavanaugh.

I don't think personally they are, but their party acts as a machine. You're either with them or against them. If you come out against Kavanaugh, you'll lost the party's backing, you'll be vilified by Fox news and its ilk, you'll be vilified by the president.

It's also worth noting that you wouldn't have seen a judge like Kavanaugh nominated during most of the mid-twentieth century because people most people wouldn't have stood for a political hack on the court. There was a cultural norm that whoever sat on the bench should not be overly political, not to mention overtly partisan. Nothing erodes trust and the court's credibility more than the general feeling that they don't care about precedent or law.

It says a lot about where we are that no one mentioned this as a reason for him being unfit. It was never mentioned on the news. It was never mentioned by any politician. We're so deep into partisan politics that it's simply taken for granted.
posted by xammerboy at 7:51 AM on September 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

Conservatives love ev-psych

The current conservatives, like the worst of evolutionary psychologists, evolve and adapt their ideas and principles on the fly not to discover the truth but to allow themselves to survive. This is why to to defeat either you can't use logic. You have to use starvation.
posted by srboisvert at 7:53 AM on September 30, 2018 [13 favorites]

If anyone is thinking about canvassing for the first time, I can say with some confidence that this year has been the easiest canvassing I have ever done. It goes something like this:

Me: Hi! I'm from the Democrats.

Them: Thank God. Don't worry, I am planning to vote for Democrats.

Me: Are you interested in voting early? I can sign you up to vote by mail!

Them: Yes. Yes, definitely. Where's the form?

Yesterday I knocked 27 doors, talked to six voters, and got five of them to sign up to vote by mail.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:55 AM on September 30, 2018 [91 favorites]

Photo gallery of Brett Kavanaugh's parents, wife, friends, and other supporters sitting behind him during his SJC testimony.
posted by cenoxo at 7:59 AM on September 30, 2018

Mod note: Dudes. Dudes. Rape jokes that purport to be against rape are still fucking rape jokes.. Do not post them here. At all. Even with content warnings.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 8:26 AM on September 30, 2018 [65 favorites]

NYT: Hundreds of Migrant Children Quietly Moved to a Tent Camp on the Texas Border

In shelters from Kansas to New York, hundreds of migrant children have been roused in the middle of the night in recent weeks and loaded onto buses with backpacks and snacks for a cross-country journey to their new home: a barren tent city on a sprawling patch of desert in South Texas.

Until now, most undocumented children being held by federal immigration authorities had been housed in private foster homes or shelters, sleeping two or three to a room. They received formal schooling and regular visits with legal representatives assigned to their immigration cases.

But in the rows of sand-colored tents in Tornillo, Tex., children in groups of 20, separated by gender, sleep lined up in bunks. There is no school: The children are given workbooks that they have no obligation to complete. Access to legal services is limited.

These midnight voyages are playing out across the country, as the federal government struggles to find room for more than 13,000 detained migrant children — the largest population ever — whose numbers have increased more than fivefold since last year.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:31 AM on September 30, 2018 [49 favorites]

It says a lot about where we are that no one mentioned this as a reason for him being unfit. It was never mentioned on the news. It was never mentioned by any politician. We're so deep into partisan politics that it's simply taken for granted.

If you are in need of nightmare fuel, might I suggest that you look up newspaper headlines from the run up to the Civil War.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:44 AM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Oh good, I needed more to worry about. More on the Gamble case Kavanaugh could rule on: “If the dual-sovereignty doctrine were tossed, as Hatch wants, then Trump’s pardon could theoretically protect Manafort from state action.” Granted, Manafort’s plea deal includes provisions that may preclude him from accepting a pardon, though that hardly provides much reassurance.
posted by armacy at 8:44 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

Not just Manafort, the whole Trump Org. clown show in NY.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:49 AM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

I've firmly been in the "every delay is a good thing" camp - the wheels are coming off, the bus is on fire, and the further away the finish line is, the more likely that it crashes and burns before making it across.

But at this point, even if it turns out to be a sham investigation and Bart gets confirmed, I think he'll be a tainted judge - much more so than Clarence Thomas, who must be having a terrible week. (That's another thought that makes me smile. Worry, asshole - history will not be kind to your reputation.)

And if Democrats get subpoena power, the guy could be tied up in a series of investigations into perjury and assault that would make a tawdry spectacle of him.
posted by RedOrGreen at 8:55 AM on September 30, 2018 [16 favorites]

‘My mind’s made up’: Lindsey Graham says he will vote for Kavanaugh even if FBI links him to sexual assault
posted by Artw at 9:01 AM on September 30, 2018 [16 favorites]

Stopped Clock Jennifer Rubin, WaPo:

If we want to protect the Supreme Court’s legitimacy, Kavanaugh should not be on it

As he yelled at Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee, it was not hard to imagine that he would be less than evenhanded if they were a party in litigation. “With his unprecedented attacks on Democrats and liberals, Kavanaugh must now likely broadly recuse himself from matters including those groups,” says ethics guru Norman Eisen. “It may wipe out a substantial portion of his docket should he be confirmed. We have a rule of thumb in government ethics: When recusals are so broad that the nominee can’t do his job, then maybe he shouldn’t be confirmed to the position. It is time to consider that question here.”

With Kavanaugh the problem is dicier if he gets to the Supreme Court. […]

“It follows – not from rules that wouldn’t technically bind him but from the principles about which Norm Eisen, Judge [Timothy] Lewis and I wrote in our Brookings Report of September 4 about the substantive areas from which Kavanaugh would have to recuse under cases like Williams-Yulee (and from the importance of maintaining the Supreme Court’s credibility as a fair arbiter of core legal questions) – that Judge Kavanaugh could not credibly cast a vote or participate in any way as a Supreme Court Justice in any of the very substantial number of cases that court decides each year involving litigants, whether individuals or organizations, that Kavanaugh evidently blames for orchestrating what he sees as an outrageous attack on his integrity, his decency, and his very life as well as the life of his family.”

In other words, we would be expecting a fierce partisan to recuse himself (for excessive partisanship), so the high court wouldn’t appear to be simply a political machine. That’s a poor bet, and even if Kavanaugh recused himself from some cases, each and every Supreme Court decision would come with an asterisk. The Supreme Court’s legitimacy, already fraying, would be decimated. The more than half of the country that didn’t vote for Donald Trump understandably would think the court’s 5-to-4 decisions stemmed from political bias.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:02 AM on September 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

Kellyanne Conway: ‘I’m a victim of sexual assault’ (Alex Horton, WaPo)

I'm honestly conflicted about this. My instinct to believe the victim clashes with my experience that she lies, and lies convincingly, about everything in order to defend her boss.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:13 AM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

I think that the test should be:
Would you believe Kellyanne Conway if she claims that today is Sunday?
posted by growabrain at 9:17 AM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

It can simultaneously be true and also distasteful that they might want to use her experience to get some kind of foothold of credibility in this context that they don't deserve.
posted by Grangousier at 9:17 AM on September 30, 2018 [24 favorites]

But at this point, even if it turns out to be a sham investigation and Bart gets confirmed, I think he'll be a tainted judge - much more so than Clarence Thomas, who must be having a terrible week.

But so what? A tainted judge's decision to overturn Roe v Wade still overturns Roe v Wade. Clarence Thomas has been one of the most powerful men in the country for 26 years.
posted by Mavri at 9:18 AM on September 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

It doesn't matter. I'll believe her, because that's a good default.

But being a survivor of sexual assault doesn't give her any authority to judge the validity of other women's claims. It's a non-sequitur.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:18 AM on September 30, 2018 [88 favorites]

With his unprecedented attacks on Democrats and liberals, Kavanaugh must now likely broadly recuse himself from matters including those group.

Ha, ha, ha. No. Supreme Court judges have no rules requiring recusal. They may occasionally do it voluntarily but no one can make them do so, not even their fellow justices. Kavanaugh, if confirmed, can do anything he wants, and given his partisan record, that is exactly what I expect him to do. He will not recuse himself on any issue important to Republicans.
posted by JackFlash at 9:25 AM on September 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

And being a survivor of sexual assault and using that as a shield for a serial sex predator is pretty sick

But then, Kellyanne Conway
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:27 AM on September 30, 2018 [13 favorites]

It doesn't matter. I'll believe her, because that's a good default.

Same. I hope we don't derail about Conway's character vis-a-vis her claim.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:31 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

it is spectacularly distasteful and revealing to look for reasons not to believe her, as if everything you know about the frequency of assault and the extreme rarity of mistaken or false reports becomes untrue when the victim is a bad person.

I don't believe her because it's a good default, whatever that may mean. I believe her because it's entirely plausible and common and because I would, in fact, believe her if she said it was Sunday, because it is. men who assault women aren't Santa Claus, they don't stick to a list of nice women and studiously avoid the naughty ones. whoever believes they do should learn enough shame not to imply it in public.

anyone who thinks it is necessary to disbelieve her because otherwise they would have to care about her or respect her other opinions or stop hating her (you don't have to do any of that!) has a grotesquely soap-operatic view of life and of women. sexual violence doesn't make you a better (or worse) person or give you special insight or absolve your sins outside of misogynist popular art. it's just an awful and very common thing that a lot of people, mostly men, do to a huge number of other people, especially women. you know this.
posted by queenofbithynia at 9:33 AM on September 30, 2018 [82 favorites]

In shelters from Kansas to New York, hundreds of migrant children have been roused in the middle of the night in recent weeks and loaded onto buses with backpacks and snacks for a cross-country journey to their new home: a barren tent city on a sprawling patch of desert in South Texas.

Nacht und Nebel again. And a virtual banner over the entrance to the camp: "Arbeit macht Frei".
posted by Stoneshop at 9:38 AM on September 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

by "it's a good default", i just mean that i believe women unless given a compelling reason not to.

not liking someone is not a compelling reason.

in my lifetime, i have never been presented with a compelling reason.

tl;dr: believe women.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:39 AM on September 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

A tainted judge's decision to overturn Roe v Wade still overturns Roe v Wade.

In that direction, sure -- allowing states to do stuff that they'd like to do anyway.

But there are a whole raft of issues where Roberts, at least, is almost certainly remembering that the only difference between nine deranged people yelling at a cloud and the pinnacle of judicial power in the US is that enough people accept that their legitimacy and authority.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:40 AM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

You might recall that Scalia refused to recuse himself in Cheney v. U.S. which was a lawsuit over whether Cheney was required to turn over documents regarding his meetings with energy executives in the White House.

At the time the case was being decided, Scalia rode on a private jet with Cheney to Texas where the vacationed together for a duck hunt. No recusal. Scalia ruled in favor of Cheney.

By the way, remember the hoopla over Bill Clinton spending 15 minutes talking to Loretta Lynch about their grandchildren, causing Comey to accuse his boss of corruption.

Kavanaugh is never going to recuse himself on any issue.
posted by JackFlash at 9:42 AM on September 30, 2018 [81 favorites]

it is spectacularly distasteful and revealing to look for reasons not to believe her, as if everything you know about the frequency of assault and the extreme rarity of mistaken or false reports becomes untrue when the victim is a bad person.

Absolutely. There's no class of women, no characteristic that renders them immune. Even pathological liars can be sexually assaulted. This is not a thing we can entertain.
posted by scalefree at 9:47 AM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

I believe Kellyanne Conway when she says obviously true things like "it is Sunday" and extremely likely to be true things like "I was sexually assaulted." A statement from a woman that she was sexually assaulted is inherently credible because all but a vanishingly small number of women have been sexually assaulted. I suspect that when she says she doesn't believe Trump's or Kavanaugh's accusers were also sexually assaulted she may be prevaricating because she very probably understands as well as I do that all but a vanishingly small number of women have been sexually assaulted.
posted by Don Pepino at 9:49 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

NBC: Limits to FBI's Kavanaugh Investigation Have Not Changed, Despite Trump's Comments—Trump’s Saturday night tweet has not changed the limits imposed by the White House counsel’s office on the FBI's Kavanaugh investigation, sources say.

The FBI has received no new instructions from the White House about how to proceed with its weeklong investigation of sexual misconduct allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, a senior U.S. official and another source familiar with the matter tell NBC News.

According to the sources, the president’s Saturday night tweet saying he wants the FBI to interview whoever agents deem appropriate has not changed the limits imposed by the White House counsel’s office on the FBI investigation — including a specific witness list that does not include Julie Swetnick, who has accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct in high school.

Also not on the list, the sources say, are former classmates who have contradicted Kavanaugh’s account of his college alcohol consumption, instead describing him as a frequent, heavy drinker. The FBI is also not authorized to interview high school classmates who could shed light on what some people have called untruths in Kavanaugh’s Senate Judiciary Committee testimony about alleged sexual references in his high school yearbook.

The sources said nothing would preclude the FBI from asking Kavanaugh's high school friend Mark Judge, who is on the witness list, about Swetnick’s allegations, but the sources stressed that this is not a top priority.

Separately, a White House official made clear that the White House is the client in this process. This is not an FBI criminal investigation — it is a background investigation in which the FBI is acting on behalf of the White House. Procedurally, the White House does not allow the FBI to investigate as it sees fit, the official acknowledged; the White House sets the parameters.

posted by Doktor Zed at 9:59 AM on September 30, 2018 [19 favorites]

Mod note: Folks, debating whether or not someone is credible about their own sexual assault is not a debate we need to have, even if everyone's just agreeing with each other. Let's move on. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 9:59 AM on September 30, 2018 [16 favorites]

The FBI investigation is not going to prove anything. All it does is buy us a week. A week where we have to make Kavanaugh so toxic that republicans won't vote for him.

The FBI will not save us.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 10:07 AM on September 30, 2018 [43 favorites]

Here’s a little levity: Baeto O’Rourke. “It may be pronounced Beh-to, but he’s always Bae to us.” An instagram of Beto as Bae.
posted by dog food sugar at 10:08 AM on September 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

If anyone is thinking about canvassing for the first time, I can say with some confidence that this year has been the easiest canvassing I have ever done. It goes something like this:

This was also pretty much the experience I had running phone banks for Beto O' Rourke a few weeks ago. Of the maybe... twenty or thirty people I spoke to, every single one of them that let me get through my spiel was patiently waiting to tell me they were voting for Beto.

(I had a very similar hiding ratio when I went canvassing for a state House rep in the primaries earlier this year. I think really people just hide from strangers talking to them, which I also do so I can't really blame them.)
posted by sciatrix at 10:27 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

As upsetting as this spectacle has been, and as much as I'd like him not to be confirmed, some part of me feels like even the hearing and investigation are major victories. I think that at some point in the past, this would have been wrongly dismissed as just "boys being boys" and roughousing that got out of hand. ("They were just joking around." "I'm sorry she got scared, but nobody was going to hurt her.") Instead, the trauma that she experienced got taken seriously by at least a subset of legislators. I don't agree with those dismissive arguments at all. This issue should have stopped the train and hopefully still will. But I have to admit that I'm a little surprised and glad that it's slowing the train as much as it is. And apart from the political outcome, the outpouring of people revealing assaults for the first time shows what an impact Ford's bravery has had on the public discussion and the feelings of other survivors, which is valuable in its own right. I'm really grateful to Ford and to the activists speaking directly to Senators.
posted by salvia at 10:40 AM on September 30, 2018 [26 favorites]

That’s weird to me the fbi can’t investigate other witnesss it may find. Or other resources it may need.
It is allowed to look into this stuff if those witnesses and resources contact the fbi proactively?

The FBI is not allowed to just investigate people on its own whim and you wouldn't want this anyway. The FBI can investigate federal crimes because that is its job, but that isn't the case here. This is an investigation for a political appointment. The White House is the only entity that can authorize that investigation and they get to write the rules for the investigation. If other people contact the FBI, the FBI can inform the White House and the White House gets to decide whether to pursue that contact.

Under normal circumstances, say the Obama administration, the White House is highly motivated to have a thorough investigation because they care about corruption and they don't want any embarrassment if something is uncovered later. So investigations tend to be rigorous.

But that is not true of the Trump administration. They simply don't care so they have no reason to make a thorough investigation. And no one can make them do it, unless the Senate refuses to confirm. But with a Republican majority, even that incentive is removed. The FBI is allowed to investigate only as far as the White House allows.
posted by JackFlash at 10:43 AM on September 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

But the president put out an official statement that the FBI wasn’t limited in scope in the way that’s being reported, no?

Yes. The president probably lied, as he frequently does, and there is not much that anyone can do about it. The public lie will not affect the scope of the investigation, although if the scope is as limited as the NYT's article suggests, I am not at all clear on what, in fact, is going to be "investigated," since it appears to be limited to information already covered in the hearing. (This perhaps is by design, so that Grassley gets to irritably complain that, just as he said, his own committee was more than capable of handling things without the involvement of the FBI.)
posted by halation at 10:55 AM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

But the president put out an official statement that the FBI wasn’t limited in scope in the way that’s being reported, no?

The FBI is not going to operate based on tweets whether you call them "official" or not. The investigation is being run by White House Counsel McGahn. He is the only one the FBI is taking orders from.
posted by JackFlash at 10:58 AM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

What happens if the FBI were to step outside the president's given bounds?
posted by thedward at 11:05 AM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

What happens if the FBI were to step outside the president's McGah's given bounds?

There will be a small number of nanoseconds between that happening and a predisential tweet calling the investigation tainted, partisan and invalid, after which the Repuglican senators will stampede back into the senate, falling over themselves in their haste to vote for O'Kavanaugh
posted by Stoneshop at 11:12 AM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

the seeming Democrat belief

Democratic, please. Using "Democrat" as a noun like that is a long-time Republican slur.

I'm sorry, but I have zero-tolerance on this one.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:18 AM on September 30, 2018 [48 favorites]

Also note that the White House is under no obligation to provide the written results of the investigation to the Senate. They can simply say, we looked, we found nothing, that's it. Or they could release selected parts but not others.

The Senate could squawk at that, but again, the Senate is run by Republicans. They are looking for just enough cover to justify their confirmation.

Flake gave his approval in the Judiciary Committee, so the committee and hearings and further questions are all out of the picture. At this point it is just a simple up or down vote by the full Senate.
posted by JackFlash at 11:30 AM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

> NYT: Hundreds of Migrant Children Quietly Moved to a Tent Camp on the Texas Border

How Does Trump 'Even Sleep at Night'? Cuts to Cancer Research, Head Start, and Women's Shelters Among $226 Million Diverted to Pay for Child Detention. "If you wrote this plot into a movie, I would have said it was over-the top."

In Dead of Night, Trump Administration Transferring Children to Tent Camp With No Schooling and Limited Legal Services. "A reminder that the Trump administration is diverting money away from Head Start, the National Cancer Institute, the HIV/AIDS programs, maternal and child health programs, and the CDC to pay for these human rights abuses."
posted by homunculus at 11:30 AM on September 30, 2018 [65 favorites]

Sen. Pat Leahy, June 6, 2006:

"In the important DC Circuit, the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh was the culmination the Republicans’ decade-long attempt to pack the DC Circuit that began with the stalling of Merrick Garland’s nomination in 1996"

This has been coming for decades. Subversion of the judiciary has been a GOP project for as long as many (most?) of us have been alive, and they are not about to let themselves be stopped.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:42 AM on September 30, 2018 [29 favorites]

Umm, wtf?


@PGourevitch "Blasey Ford is not on The White House approved list of four people FBI is allowed to interview, according to @nytimes"

Quoting: @SherylNYT "NEW: FBI has not responded to requests from Christine Blasey Ford to do an interview. “We have not heard from the FBI, despite repeated efforts to speak with them,” her lawyer, Debra S. Katz, told me, when asked."

{Gourevitch is: "Staff Writer at The New Yorker, author of 'The Ballad of Abu Ghraib', 'A Cold Case' & 'We Wish To Inform You That Tomorrow We Will Be Killed With Our Families'"}

[Real - I can't believe this can possibly be, but credible sources]
posted by Buntix at 11:42 AM on September 30, 2018 [58 favorites]

Discouraging, but fits the pattern, and underscores how critical November 6 is to gaining investigative tools independent of the executive.
posted by notyou at 11:54 AM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

More: Details of F.B.I.’s Kavanaugh Inquiry Show Its Restricted Range [NYTimes]

Summary per Gourevitch tweets:

Times says McGahn, working with McConnell/Senate GOP, is indeed setting FBI limits: only 4 people are approved for FBI interviews: Judge, Keyser, PJ Smyth & Ramirez. FBI to ask Judge about Swetnick allegations, but not Swetnick. Question of Kav downplaying drinking are off limits

Times says—"The WH can order investigators to further examine the allegations if their findings from the 4 witness interviews open new avenues of inquiry, & Mr. Trump seemed to stress that part of the plan in a tweet late on Saturday.” i.e. all he was saying is limits may change

the two most striking omissions from WH/McConnell approved FBI interview list are Kavanaugh and Blasey Ford

Lass es brennen!
posted by Buntix at 11:54 AM on September 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

the two most striking omissions from WH/McConnell approved FBI interview list are Kavanaugh and Blasey Ford

This whole sham is to avoid Kavanaugh getting referred for perjury. They know he lied to the Senate but they'll never refer him. He pulls that shit with the FBI and he will get referred. Which is also why they won't question anyone about his drinking despite it being integral to the story because he lied about it.
posted by chris24 at 12:08 PM on September 30, 2018 [59 favorites]

Dozens Protest Detention of Migrant Children Outside Tornillo 'Tent City.'
posted by homunculus at 12:39 PM on September 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

warren-harris 2020, free college, single-payer, civilian infrastructure program with military style benefits, restore glass-steagull, prosecute white-collar crime, nationalize internet services, FAGSC. and keep cleaning our own house (nb ellison). ffs, dems need to stand for something.
posted by j_curiouser at 12:44 PM on September 30, 2018 [44 favorites]

@MattWalshBlog: If I was traipsed in front of the Senate on bogus charges and forced to answer deeply personal and embarrassing questions about my high school antics, maybe out of embarrassment and anger I might be less than truthful. Would that make me a liar who can't be trusted again? Come on

@HeerJeet: The emerging conservative argument is that, yes, Kavanaugh lied (or was "less than truthful") in sworn testimony but that's because he's so angry at being falsely accused. I admire the boldness of this play.

---

With regard to Conway, and I do believe her, there's a context to her statements (via Kyle Cheney), particularly why she says we treat people differently in these situations based on their politics. The day after the Access Hollywood tape came out, after the "locker room talk" debate, as Republicans were dropping Trump by the dozen, she went on Chris Matthews:

CONWAY: As somebody who knows him well and has been alone with him many times. He has been very gracious, he's a gentleman. I've never experienced that conduct.

I would talk to some of the members of congress out there, when I was younger and prettier. Them rubbing up against girls, sticking their tongues down women's throats, uninvited, who didn't like it. You're saying yeah because you know it was true.

MATTHEWS: I've heard those accounts, or course.

CONWAY: Some are on the list of people who won't support Donald Trump, because they ride around on a high horse.

In 2017, she told a Politico event she felt ignored by the press because of her politics:

Yes, of course I’ve had a ‘Me too’ moment, but nobody cared about that,” Conway said when asked by POLITICO’s Anna Palmer about her personal connection to the movement that has seen a wave of women speak out about acts of sexual impropriety by powerful men. “If we’re going to have an honest conversation everyone — you can’t pick and choose depending on somebody’s politics.”

According to Conway, a day after the release of the explosive “Access Hollywood” tape — in which then-candidate Donald Trump boasted about groping women during an off-camera conversation with host Billy Bush — she sought to denounce what she said were instances of sexual harassment by congressmen against her and other women during her time working as a Republican political operative in Washington, D.C. But she said she was ignored by the press.

I believe her, and it's particularly frustrating that, given her employment and the present situation, she's not really in a position to come forward and name names if that's something she personally wants to do. The people who did what she describes should not be in Congress, regardless of their party.

It's also frustrating that the only time she appears to bring this up is when someone she cares about politically has been accused and she's telling us not to believe the victims' stories. I don't really know what to do with that.
posted by zachlipton at 12:54 PM on September 30, 2018 [56 favorites]

James Comey: "The F.B.I. Can Do This" (NY Times)

The F.B.I. is back in the middle of it. When we were handed the Hillary Clinton email investigation in 2015, the bureau’s deputy director said to me, “You know you are totally screwed, right?” He meant that, in a viciously polarized political environment, one side was sure to be furious with the outcome. Sure enough, I saw a tweet declaring me “a political hack,” although the author added, tongue in cheek: “I just can’t figure out which side.”

And those were the good old days.

posted by standardasparagus at 12:58 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

It's also frustrating that the only time she appears to bring this up is when someone she cares about politically has been accused and she's telling us not to believe the victims' stories. I don't really know what to do with that.

Nothing? Even if you believed her it’s basically worthless since she’s not actually saying anything, just seeking to deflect. Pretty heavy thing to use as verbal smokescreen, but that’s her choice.
posted by Artw at 1:11 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

James Comey: "The F.B.I. Can Do This" (NY Times)

Hence the limits on the sham investigation.

Yes, the alleged incident occurred 36 years ago. But F.B.I. agents know time has very little to do with memory. They know every married person remembers the weather on their wedding day, no matter how long ago. Significance drives memory. They also know that little lies point to bigger lies. They know that obvious lies by the nominee about the meaning of words in a yearbook are a flashing signal to dig deeper.

posted by chris24 at 1:17 PM on September 30, 2018 [21 favorites]

I think there's a nontrivial set of women who have experienced sexual violence but feel that coming forward about it would be impertinent, like immigrants resentful at the idea of changing the process to be less Kafkaesque for any future would-be citizens. "I've have this happen to me... and you don't see me rocking the boat." It's the flipside of the doublethink on the part of perpetrators -- it's not that the survivor thinks nothing bad happened to them, but that adjudicating that badness in the public sphere, taking men like him to task, would break something essential about how (from their perspective) "justice" is supposed to work.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [22 favorites]

I wish, when shitty people publicly say terrible things about rape victims, we wouldn’t post their shitty quotes here. Link to them. Warn us that there are shitty viewpoints within. Give us the gist if it’s actually newsworthy. But maybe think twice before posting a whole quoted screed on how the metoo movement is taking “unhappy sexual incidents” and ruining men’s careers over them. Who is it helping for us to all read those exact words? And who is it hurting? Not everything needs a pull quote. Especially if that quote will do more harm than good.
posted by greermahoney at 1:32 PM on September 30, 2018 [29 favorites]

InTheYear2017: I also think that there are some women, especially older (60+ or so), and double-especially those who worked in male-dominated professions (from what I've observed) who say things like, "I had to put up with [various forms of harassment] and you didn't see ME complaining. These little snowflakes need to buck up and grow thicker skins." I had to put up with hazing, so should you. Uphill in the snow both ways, etc.; a petty tougher-than-thou one-upmanship.

What I don't get is why people don't say, "Hey, I had to put up with some bad stuff, and I wish I didn't have to, but I'm glad that younger people are speaking up and out. I hope things are better for my children."
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 1:35 PM on September 30, 2018 [47 favorites]

Trump administration moves to block Wilbur Ross deposition, in which the administration will request a stay from the Supreme Court to prevent Ross from being deposed about the citizenship question on the census.

Update: @KlasfeldReports: BREAKING: A federal judge denies @CommerceGov's request to stay @SecretaryRoss's deposition in the #2020census case, pending their appeal to the Supreme Court. Judge Furman calls the government's application "particularly frivolous - if not outrageous." Scorching ruling.
posted by zachlipton at 1:54 PM on September 30, 2018 [37 favorites]

On the last possible day, Gov. Jerry Brown of California signed SB 826, which requires publicly traded corporations based in California to have a representative number of women on their boards. So that's going to go to court, etc..., etc..., but note the last line of his signing message: "cc: United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary”

SB 822, California's net neutrality bill, is still sitting on his desk.
posted by zachlipton at 1:59 PM on September 30, 2018 [10 favorites]

Cheers to you, Judge Furman. Must have felt good.

Every lawyer or judge I know (and I know a few) who isn't a Federalist Society schmuckface is walking around with a chip on their shoulder over Kavanaugh and this administration's abuse of the law generally.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:59 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

Rosie M. Banks: What I don't get is why people don't say, "Hey, I had to put up with some bad stuff, and I wish I didn't have to, but I'm glad that younger people are speaking up and out. I hope things are better for my children."

Because then their parents' generation would resent them. I'm mostly serious -- that's one way the mindset pays itself forward.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:00 PM on September 30, 2018

Re: why (some of) those who suffered don't want things to get better; like so many things to do with conservatism, it's about denial.

Women who suffered terrible injustices because of sexism but stayed in a field/position did not, in fact, heal from that. They grew a scar, but the injury remained, and it's still tender. They have covered it up with denial because otherwise, they have to reopen that wound. That's also why they're upset when other women don't cover it up and deny it, because then it becomes harder for them to ignore what happened, and they want to keep ignoring it.

I honestly think this drives many actions of people voting for leaders who will act against them; sort of a combination of sunk-cost fallacy, denial, and a whole truckload of un-dealt-with issues.

It's enough to make you feel pity if those doing it didn't perpetuate so much more injustice and pain.
posted by emjaybee at 2:11 PM on September 30, 2018 [46 favorites]

A couple of weeks ago, before the hearing, one of my friends called and said we need to talk about #metoo, because (she said) she couldn't recognize it at all.

Well, I said, I get you. I haven't experienced much myself, but I have supported other women who have experienced assaults.

Oh yes, she said. I know that.

And then, I said, obviously I have experienced a rape attempt while on interrail, been raped by a significant other, and been harassed by jocks at a party where I was making out with my boyfriend.

Oh, said my friend. Do those count? Everyone's been through that.

Yeah. Those count. We don't have to let our daughters go through all that. We can stop it now.
posted by mumimor at 2:19 PM on September 30, 2018 [116 favorites]

I'm 55. I went to school with people like Brett Kavanaugh. Actually I met with one of them today. It was fine. But I couldn't stop my memories.

There are some cultural differences across the Atlantic. I don't think many people my generation were are worried about their virginity (except from getting rid of it). But the violence towards women is the same.
posted by mumimor at 2:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

the combination of SNL's cold open last night with Caprio as Kavanaugh and then the ending with Kanye rambling about his hat and the sunken place and democrats putting black people on welfare was a nice little snapshot of the cultural moment we're in
posted by angrycat at 2:31 PM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

the combination of SNL's cold open last night with Caprio as Kavanaugh

Matt Damon!
posted by Justinian at 2:37 PM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

AP, Pentagon’s immigrant recruit program stymied

Stricter Trump administration immigration policies have stymied Pentagon plans to restart a program that allowed thousands of people with critical medical or Asian and African language skills to join the military and become American citizens, according to several U.S. officials.

The decade-old program has been on hold since 2016 amid concerns that immigrant recruits were not being screened well enough, and security threats were slipping through the system. Defense officials shored up the vetting process, and planned to relaunch the program earlier this month.

But there was an unexpected barrier when Homeland Security officials said they would not be able to protect new immigrant recruits from being deported when their temporary visas expired after they signed a contract to join the military, the U.S. officials said. They were not authorized to publicly describe internal discussions and spoke on condition of anonymity.

The program is called the Military Accessions Vital to the National Interest program, and if you want to talk about "we support our troops," paying attention to what the military describes as "vital to the national interest" and agreeing to not deport people who have signed contracts to join the military is really a baseline minimum requirement.
posted by zachlipton at 2:44 PM on September 30, 2018 [35 favorites]

SB 822, California's net neutrality bill, is still sitting on his desk.

WTF? Today is the deadline. If he doesn't sign it, it will not become law.
posted by homunculus at 2:54 PM on September 30, 2018

@davidenrich [full statement attached]: Former Yale classmate of Kavanaugh’s goes on the record to describe him as a belligerent drunk.

On many occasions, I heard Brett slur his words and saw him staggering from alcohol consumption, not all of which was beer. When Brett got drunk, he was often belligerent and aggressive. On one of the last occasions I purposefully socialized with Brett, I witnessed him respond to a semi-hostile remark, not by diffusing the situation, but by throwing his beer in the man's face and starting a fight that ended with one of our mutual friends in jail.

It's also amazing how little has been made of the story Lynnne Brooks, a different former classmate, told about Kavanaugh and a friend barging into a room "where a guy and girl had gone off together, and embarrass that woman...they thought it was funny." As CNN's Vaughn Sterling notes, "This alleged incident from Yale involves a drunk Kavanaugh at a party with another buddy, embarrassing a young woman in a sexual situation, and laughter. 🤔"
posted by zachlipton at 2:59 PM on September 30, 2018 [40 favorites]

WTF? Today is the deadline. If he doesn't sign it, it will not become law.

Ackchyually... there is no pocket veto in California. In CA if the Governor doesn't sign or veto the bill it automatically becomes law. So Brown would have to actively veto it to stop the bill.
posted by Justinian at 2:59 PM on September 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

*Phew* Thanks for explaining that.
posted by homunculus at 3:02 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

Uh, caveat: depending on when the legislature adjourned what I said may or may not be true. I haven't been following it closely enough to know for sure. Bad Justinian, no biscuit.
posted by Justinian at 3:03 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

Here is a summary of the process in CA:

The governor must sign or veto legislation within 12 days of the day of transmittal, or it becomes law without his/her signature. However, if the 12th day is a Sunday or a holiday, the governor has until the next working day to act. The governor has until September 30 to sign or veto legislation in his/her possession on the day the legislature adjourns (usually August 31), or it becomes law without being signed

So you be the judge. SB 822 passed on August... 30? And then the legislature adjourned. Which indicates to me that it becomes law if he doesn't sign it today.
posted by Justinian at 3:06 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

On "false accusations" and sympathy for such, it's important to be clear: if judge Kavanaugh was a different person this would be a different situation.

If it were me in his shoes - I've never been blackout drunk. I've probably made some people uncomfortable, but I've never assaulted anyone. I can say that with 100% certainty and a lot of credibility. When Kavanaugh says that, he isn't believed because it ISN'T TRUE. There's a legal goddamn record of him apologizing for doing something stupid while blackout drunk.

Kavanaugh's denials would have more credibility if he didn't have a documented record of lying. He'd have more credibility if there wasn't a documented record of him binge drinking, and he'd have more credibility if he owned up to the publicly documented truth. He would get more leeway if he showed a fucking ounce of sympathy. Instead, he's making it look like he doesn't even think sexual assault is a bad thing, and that makes him look even more like a person who would commit sexual assault!

Men, if you're worried about ending up in kavanaugh's shoes, there are so many ways to avoid it! Don't be a smarmy lying asshole! Keep your drinking to a smart and legal level! Don't make insulting jokes about women! Even better, you could take all the morals and laws you follow in public and just keep following them in private.

I swear to God, George W. Bush would have more credibility denying sexual assault allegations. And he'd be more likely to get "forgiven" by the public.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 3:12 PM on September 30, 2018 [19 favorites]

I'm so old I remember when "sober as a judge" meant something.
posted by scalefree at 3:14 PM on September 30, 2018 [87 favorites]

Is Lindsay Graham being blackmailed, or is he suffering a mental breakdown?
posted by growabrain at 3:24 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

Is Lindsay Graham being blackmailed, or is he suffering a mental breakdown?

Or is he just a horrible human being who sees this as a way to keep his seat, avoid being swarmed by the MAGA crew, and get through the occasional pork-barrel bill or pet project? I believe the words "GOP Congressperson" may furnish the answer.
posted by kewb at 3:28 PM on September 30, 2018 [50 favorites]

Is Lindsay Graham being blackmailed, or is he suffering a mental breakdown?

Please don't take this as an attempt to excuse the heinous shit these guys are doing, but - they spend all day every day immersed in what may as well be a parallel universe. Everyone they talk to, the media they consume, the advice they are given, etc is so far outside the realm of the shit we hear and think and know that trying to use our frameworks to interpret their motives will never work.
posted by showbiz_liz at 3:31 PM on September 30, 2018 [20 favorites]

Axios is reporting that if the Kavanaugh confirmation fails and the Dems take the Senate and the GOP runs out of time for someone else during the lame duck Congress, rather than name a compromise candidate, Trump will just not name one. Indefinitely.

Which, you know, I'm kind of ok with. Except for when the question of Trump's own immunity gets to the court, possibly. But even then a 4-4 decision might be ok.
posted by suelac at 3:47 PM on September 30, 2018 [35 favorites]

Eh, I think the Democrats should compromise and accept any reasonable nominee, so long as that nominee is Merrick Garland.
posted by Justinian at 3:49 PM on September 30, 2018 [63 favorites]

Lindsey Graham is not doing what he's doing because he being misled by media. He's only been a Trumpist for a year or so. I'll agree that senators probably have a bunch of people telling them that whatever they say is right but Lindsey Graham is very good politician and what he's doing is a political performance. If you don't think he's a good to great politician, ask yourself how someone who presents like Graham keeps getting elected in South Carolina.
posted by rdr at 3:51 PM on September 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

Eh, I think the Democrats should compromise and accept any reasonable nominee, so long as that nominee is Merrick Garland.

heh. But I do believe that Trump's lunatic enough to just not ever name a nominee under those circumstances.
posted by suelac at 4:03 PM on September 30, 2018

Or is [Lindsey Graham] just a horrible human being who sees this as a way to keep his seat, avoid being swarmed by the MAGA crew

Is this really a thing? Who is his most likely to succeed primary challenger from the right? Or is the idea that the MAGAs are going to Doug Jones him from the left? I'm honestly curious to know what electoral vulnerability he has at all; he won his last re-election 55-38.

Just noticed that he's a year younger than Jerry Seinfeld.
posted by rhizome at 4:04 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

he'd have more credibility if he owned up to the publicly documented truth

That’s the part I can’t get past: he’s very vocal about his faith and it’s one which is especially compatible with forgiveness and repentance. A simple “I had a problem which I dealt with. My church helped me…” spiel, if less than completely insincere, would seem to get a lot more sympathy than making such blatant lies and attempts to mislead — and would be far more compatible with being a judge.

Once again we’re left with a lot hanging on them not being competent crooks.
posted by adamsc at 4:07 PM on September 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

Axios is reporting that if the Kavanaugh confirmation fails and the Dems take the Senate and the GOP runs out of time for someone else during the lame duck Congress, rather than name a compromise candidate, Trump will just not name one.

Don't get my hopes up! Is there any realistic chance of this actually happening?
posted by salvia at 4:09 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

It's 2018. There's a realistic chance of pretty much anything happening if it's ridiculous enough.
posted by Grangousier at 4:10 PM on September 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

Is there any realistic chance of this actually happening?

Normally I'd say no. If Kavanaugh fails, and if he does it should be in the next two weeks, there would be plenty of time to nominate a new person and confirm them before mid-late January. It would require a massive fuckup on the scale of the Kavanaugh nomination to fail. Possibly even a bigger one because the Republicans would know that it was their last chance for a conservative majority for several years and possibly ever.

But this administration is so incompetent that who knows. tl;dr - in a sane world, no, no reastic chance. Is this world sane though?
posted by Justinian at 4:14 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

Don't get my hopes up! Is there any realistic chance of this actually happening?

It's not likely. Right now, I think the most likely scenario is that Kavanaugh will be confirmed. Let's try to stop that, and then we'll deal with the next thing.

And meanwhile, it's not super likely that the Democrats take back the Senate, so if you want that to happen, maybe think about what you can do to help. Can you donate money? Make some phone calls? If you're in a competitive state, can you knock some doors?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:15 PM on September 30, 2018 [17 favorites]

he’s very vocal about his faith and it’s one which is especially compatible with forgiveness and repentance. A simple “I had a problem which I dealt with. My church helped me…” spiel, if

problem is, that train already left the station. Kavanaugh lied and it's on the record, which effectively makes it perjury, which if nothing else disqualifies him from supreme court suitability.
posted by philip-random at 4:16 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

The problem with the reformed sinner narrative is that he hasn't reformed. Specifically, I don't think he has quit drinking, and an awful lot of this stuff involves bad behavior when he was drunk. I think it would open up a whole new line of questioning about his behavior around alcohol, and my hunch is that he really doesn't want to go there.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:19 PM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

If Kavanaugh isn't confirmed and if they don't rush a nominee through before the midterms and if Dems take the Senate in the midterms (those are all a lot of ifs), I don't see how McConnell doesn't move heaven and earth to confirm someone in the lame duck session, as Swan acknowledged after people (including a US Senator) asked him WTF he was talking about. Trump's people are signaling he won't nominate a "compromise" candidate if it somehow comes down to a situation where the only way he's getting a nominee through is with the consent of a Democratic majority—he's sticking to his Federalist Society-written list—, but he'll desperately try to install whoever Leo and McGahn tell him to pick as long as that's a possibility.

Anyway, as ArbitraryAndCapricious says, keep working on creating the conditions that make those ifs possible.
posted by zachlipton at 4:19 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

But I do believe that Trump's lunatic enough to just not ever name a nominee under those circumstances.

Whereas I believe that he's lunatic enough to do what Obama should have done when the GOP prevented Garland's confirmation: Wait until the first instant of recess and appoint someone as an "interim emergency appointment", then dare anyone to come after him for it.

Remember the level of infancy and entitlement we're dealing with: if there's no law preventing him from taking a shit on the Great Seal in the Oval Office, he will unfailingly take a shit on the Great Seal.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 4:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

He'll name a nominee, because he can't resist the idea of declaring who's most in his pocket right now, and because he couldn't tolerate the heat of the MAGA crowd saying "SCOTUS is missing a conservative judge; why haven't you nominated someone?"

Of course, he may nominate someone even more wildly unqualified than Kavanaugh, and have that get slammed down before the session turnover.

I consider it fairly likely that he'll appoint one in the recess, and congress will have to go through the process of throwing that one out. He may even appoint Kavanaugh after he's been turned away. The only thing that would prevent this, is his close team not telling him how to do it, because it's not like he can research the procedure himself, or even draw up the order without help. But I don't have a lot of hope for them stopping him.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 4:33 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

About two years ago I decided I would never again pay attention to anything that Kellyanne Conway says. It's been a good quality-of-life decision, and I plan to continue with it.
posted by nnethercote at 4:40 PM on September 30, 2018 [19 favorites]

Kate McKinnon’s Ruth Bader Ginsburg “Gins-burns” Kavanaugh on SNL via Vox (Alissa Wilkinson)
posted by ZeusHumms at 4:42 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

Radio New Zealand this morning—Peter Temin: why the middle class is vanishing in the US (~24min audio)

Professor Peter Temin applies a well-known economic model to outline a two track economy - one that is educated with good jobs, and another much larger sector where people are burdened with debt and anxious about their job, if they have one. And in between, the middle class - which he says is disappearing. His latest book is The Vanishing Middle Class - Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy. Peter Temin is the Gray Professor Emeritus of Economics at MIT, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The book was written before the 2016 election and published in 2017 (previously), so it's essentially referring to the Clinton-45 alternate timeline, but in the interview the author elaborates on how under Trump everything is even worse. A really fascinating conversation in which he directly relates many aspects of inequality in the 21st-century US to the country's history in the 19th and 20th centuries.

Deutsche Welle's Inside Europe from Friday (55min audio, in English) begins with an interview with Gordon Sondland, the US ambassador to the EU, in which he absurdly claims that Trump would be willing to make a trade agreement containing no tariffs or subsidies if the EU was only willing to. Riiiiight, the guy who just gave 12 trillion dollars or whatever to the agricultural industry and uses wartime emergency powers to direct money to the coal and oil industries is going to stop all of that.

The latter interview is followed by a discussion of measures being taken to allow European companies to continue doing business with Iran as long as it continues complying with the nuclear agreement, which the interviewer summarizes as a "barter system" allowing companies to exchange non-cash credits which won't fall within the reach of US financial controls and sanctions. But the largest European companies with the most extensive ties to the US have already completely pulled out of Iran.
posted by XMLicious at 4:48 PM on September 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

there would be plenty of time to nominate a new person and confirm them before mid-late January.

By the 20th Amendment, the new Senate session with new senators begins on January 3, unless a new law is passed changing the date.
posted by JackFlash at 4:53 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

Huh, thanks, for some reason I thought it was later than that.

There would still be enough time but those 2 weeks do make it dicier. They would have to move quickly, both to wrap up Kavanaugh one way or the other and to get the new nominee confirmed.
posted by Justinian at 4:56 PM on September 30, 2018

Former Yale classmate of Kavanaugh’s goes on the record to describe him as a belligerent drunk.

Charles Lane (WaPo)
You can't make this up. Chad Ludington, the history prof who is now coming forward to say #Kavanaugh drank like a fish at Yale, is the author of: ‘Politics and the Taste for Wine in England and Scotland, 1660-1860’ (Columbia University, 2003)
posted by chris24 at 5:07 PM on September 30, 2018 [38 favorites]

SB 822, California's net neutrality bill, is still sitting on his desk.

Update, which should calm the Justinian Current California Legislative Procedure Uncertainty Level: NET NEUTRALITY IS NOW THE LAW IN CALIFORNIA!
posted by zachlipton at 5:14 PM on September 30, 2018 [68 favorites]

Feinstein sent a letter to the FBI asking them to provide a copy of the written directive sent to them by the White House.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:16 PM on September 30, 2018 [72 favorites]

Update, which should calm the Justinian Current California Legislative Procedure Uncertainty Level: NET NEUTRALITY IS NOW THE LAW IN CALIFORNIA!

Sweet! Now I can hit the refresh button Metafilter even faster with no fear of my ISP throttling me.

It will not surprise you to know I went on a mass googling and legislative procedure investigation spree after my comment and did come to the conclusion that it would surely become law as long as Brown didn't veto the thing, so I wasn't sweating it too much. But having him sign it is symbolically important. The executive and legislature are now both on the net neutrality train.
posted by Justinian at 5:21 PM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

NET NEUTRALITY IS NOW THE LAW IN CALIFORNIA!

Finally some good news! Woot!
posted by homunculus at 5:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Former Yale classmate of Kavanaugh’s goes on the record to describe him as a belligerent drunk.

Also on this, he's not just talking to the Times and Post on this, he's going into the FBI office tomorrow in Raleigh to make a sworn statement to them. And there should be an arrest record for the friend to confirm that element of the account.
posted by chris24 at 5:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [47 favorites]

NET NEUTRALITY IS NOW THE LAW IN CALIFORNIA!

Most new laws take place on Jan 1 of the next year; that's probably the case unless the law itself says otherwise, and this one doesn't.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:25 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

Followup thought: He may have been waiting as late as possible to sign it, to reduce the amount of time available to kick off lawsuits against it.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:26 PM on September 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

Justinian: "Eh, I think the Democrats should compromise and accept any reasonable nominee, so long as that nominee is Merrick Garland."

You know what, fuck that. Democrats should insist on not confirming anyone who isn't a lefty wet dream until the new president is elected under the McConnell custom.
posted by Mitheral at 5:34 PM on September 30, 2018 [24 favorites]

Esquire, Ryan Lizza (*sigh*), Devin Nunes’s Family Farm Is Hiding a Politically Explosive Secret. This thing is, well, it's a read. I'm not entirely convinced it should even be a story, given that the major theme underneath it is fear that the reporting will trigger a retaliatory ICE raid. It starts with an explanation that Rep. Nunes has built his career around the story of his family's California farm (he has no financial stake in it; it's owned by his parents and other relatives), but they very quietly sold the place in 2006 and moved the whole operation to Iowa, Sibley to be precise, in Osceola County, one of the most Trump-voting counties in 2016 and represented by Steve King.

What Sibley does have is a dairy industry entirely built on undocumented immigrant labor, and the common refrain when Trump's immigration policy is mentioned is "Well, we don’t agree with him on that!" What follows is a tale of largely terrified people worried about Lizza poking around asking questions, Nunes family members tailing him all over the place, and a much broader story about who produces our food and who their bosses vote for.
posted by zachlipton at 5:45 PM on September 30, 2018 [42 favorites]

Beto O’Rourke Draws Huge Crowd As Willie Nelson Sings “Vote ‘Em Out”.

Willie wrote a new song for the rally:

“If you don’t like who’s in there vote ’em out.
That’s what election day is all about.
And the biggest gun we got is called the ballot box.
If you don’t like who’s is there vote ’em out.”
posted by Capt. Renault at 5:53 PM on September 30, 2018 [74 favorites]

Democrats should insist on not confirming anyone who isn't a lefty wet dream until the new president is elected under the McConnell custom.

By the McConnell rule, the reason for the 2016 stonewalling was for the voice of the people to be heard in the nomination process. As his reasoning apparently doesn't apply to midterms, we can deduce that he believes the people should be heard particularly in their choice of POTUS, not congress, i.e. in the initial selection of the nominee.

And yet since 2016, we have seen a growing body of evidence that, whether by collusion or independent action, Russia had interfered in the '16 election to an extent that our current POTUS may not even accurately reflect the voice of the people (Gasp!). So how in good conscience can we continue with this procedure of such importance when our whole reason for waiting a year may be undermined by electoral interference. We should, nay must, delay the nomination vote until Robert Mueller has concluded his investigation. I'm sure Mitch McConnell will agree.
posted by p3t3 at 6:00 PM on September 30, 2018 [14 favorites]

Well, that was fast.

The Trump administration is suing California to quash its new net neutrality law (WaPo)

Mere hours after California’s proposal became law, however, senior Justice Department officials told The Washington Post they would take the state to court on grounds that the federal government, not state leaders, has the exclusive power to regulate net neutrality. DOJ officials stressed the FCC had been granted such authority from Congress to ensure that all 50 states don’t seek to write their own, potentially conflicting, rules governing the web. The U.S. government anticipates filing its lawsuit Monday morning.

posted by greermahoney at 6:02 PM on September 30, 2018 [15 favorites]

Elizabeth Warren, Mayor Marty Walsh and City Councilor (and soon to be US Rep) Ayanna Pressley will be at the Kavanaugh protest outside Jeff Flake's talk with John Kasich on City Hall Plaza in Boston tomorrow (the protest starts at 10 a.m.) Walsh tweets tonight:

This moment in time will mark how we, as a country, respond to the call for action from women & individuals who have bravely spoken out about sexual assault. Join us in standing up for survivors because they are powerful, they give voice to others & they should not be dismissed.

posted by adamg at 6:02 PM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

I thought that Ryan Lizza piece was maybe a little naive. I'm sure that Nunes and his family worry that he'd be embarrassed by revelations that their farm hires undocumented immigrants, but I don't think anyone really believes that ICE would be dumb enough to raid Devin Nunes's family's farm. I would be surprised if ICE raided any dairy farm in Osceola County. Trump's (and Steve King's) immigration rhetoric is good for appealing to racism, and the fear of ICE is probably good for keeping a vulnerable workforce from getting any ideas about labor organizing. But ICE is a wing of the Trump administration, and they're not going to target Trump's most loyal voters.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:04 PM on September 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

Willie Nelson's VOTE 'EM OUT is the anthem of this election!
posted by growabrain at 6:09 PM on September 30, 2018 [20 favorites]

ArbitraryAndCapricious, for better or worse you're explicitly stating that the rule of law should no longer be taken to apply. I don't disagree, but that's bigger than you are painting it as if it's your base assumption.
posted by jaduncan at 6:09 PM on September 30, 2018

And yes, even as I say that I'm aware the rule of law has never been entirely applicable to ethnic minorities or women. I just think that it, in the end, is the fight that makes any other gains possible.
posted by jaduncan at 6:16 PM on September 30, 2018

I swear to God, George W. Bush would have more credibility denying sexual assault allegations. And he'd be more likely to get "forgiven" by the public.

He did, and he was.

the woman who accused him of rape told a story that did not seem credible to most people, including to me. I'm not sure anyone at all ever believed her. Not because it seemed like a malicious invention, but rather because her story seemed like a sincerely held delusion. Delusional people can of course be attacked, and when they are, they have almost no chance of convincing anybody that something really happened.

she's dead now, and nobody remembers.
posted by queenofbithynia at 6:21 PM on September 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

ArbitraryAndCapricious, for better or worse you're explicitly stating that the rule of law should no longer be taken to apply.

Right. Yes. That.

Like I said, I think all the "oh, but that would be like fascism" white guys are hopelessly naive.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:23 PM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

Any thoughts on the most effective campaigns/organizations to donate to that will have the biggest effect on the midterm elections at this point?
posted by medusa at 6:27 PM on September 30, 2018

Another point of weird naiveté in Lizza's piece is all the pontificating on paradoxes like, "In the heart of Steve King’s district, a place that is more pro-Trump than almost any other patch of America, the economy is powered by workers that King and Trump have threatened to arrest and deport." This apparent hypocrisy in supporting the continuing criminalization of their workforce isn't a mystery. The sectors dependent on undocumented labor require a very specific level of enforcement: high enough that their workers are terrified into accepting substandard conditions and pay, but low enough that nobody they don't want deported ever gets deported. They support policies and representatives who will perpetuate that state of affairs.
posted by jackbishop at 6:29 PM on September 30, 2018 [48 favorites]

We can broaden that to enforcement that ensures they are kept under the jackboot of a white supremacist system. Suddenly it looks like there's no social disconnect either.
posted by jaduncan at 6:33 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

Any thoughts on the most effective campaigns/organizations to donate to that will have the biggest effect on the midterm elections at this point?

You've literally got a day: campaigns are required to report their fundraising up to September 30th, and it's this reporting that will determine who is beating expectations when it comes to fundraising, and thus who will be national priorities for the Democratic machine. The advice I've heard is to take a look at close races that are leaning R, say on 538, and donate to the Democrat.

If no races grab you, or you're reading this in October: if you have friends or family in a district that's not going to be runaway Democrat, call them, and ask them to vote for the Democrat in that district. Personal connection is far more effective than canvassing from strangers - it's basically the only thing the Republicans have going for them, other than the racism.
posted by Merus at 6:38 PM on September 30, 2018 [7 favorites]

Any thoughts on the most effective campaigns/organizations to donate to that will have the biggest effect on the midterm elections at this point?

Can't beat The Great Slate IMO.
posted by scalefree at 6:38 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

Any thoughts on the most effective campaigns/organizations to donate to that will have the biggest effect on the midterm elections at this point?

I recommend The Swing Left Immediate Impact fund, though fair warning you may have to unsubscribe from emails from 17 different campaigns if you donate to that. But as far as I have heard, those 17 are all ones that fulfill your criteria. You could just pick one or two and donate to those, instead of to the fund which is split between all of them.
posted by OnceUponATime at 6:46 PM on September 30, 2018 [5 favorites]

Upthread: 55% of Republicans thinking sexual assault is not disqualifying for the Supreme Court

Thoughts:

Is that that, roughly, the gender breakdown of the Republican Party?

And you know how they’ve been saying the quiet parts out loud about their racism? I have a feeling some of them have been waiting to say the quiet parts out loud about their misogyny. They’re getting close. They want it.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:06 PM on September 30, 2018 [26 favorites]

Is that that, roughly, the gender breakdown of the Republican Party?

It may be, but that statistic doesn't break on gender lines, although more men than women think Kavanaugh should be appointed.

And yes, they absolutely want permission to say, "women exist for the purpose of making men happy; anything a man does to a woman is acceptable, as long as he's not bothering another man; anything a woman does to a man that makes him unhappy is forbidden."
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:25 PM on September 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

ErisLordFreedom, that's recognisably the incel code...and is pretty much also Jim Crow. Thanks for the snappy synopsis.
posted by jaduncan at 7:31 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

Chuck Grassley probably doesn't know how twitter works.
posted by adept256 at 7:43 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

Chuck Grassley probably doesn't know how twitter works.

obligatory pantsburnlegwound
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:46 PM on September 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

@sungminkim: NEW--> in memo to all Senate Rs obtained by WaPo, Rachel Mitchell argues re Ford case: "A 'he said, she said' case is incredibly difficult to prove. But this case is even weaker than that." Story TK

The memo is in the tweet. It’s...ugh.
posted by zachlipton at 8:08 PM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

Oh, said my friend. Do those count? Everyone's been through that.

When #metoo was really taking off my wife said "I guess I've been lucky to not have to deal with any of that". I said "What the hell do you mean? You told me about x, y and z happening to you".

She said "Oh right. I'd forgotten about that."

I think mostly it was just that her experiences were on less severe side of things (as far as I know) and she had 'moved on' but I did think it was fascinating that #metoo didn't surface those memories. I remembered because I never forget when other men make moves on my partner because lizard brain kicks in but I also have no need to repress the discomfort, deny powerlessness or avoid the professional complications.
posted by srboisvert at 8:22 PM on September 30, 2018 [12 favorites]

tl;dr: paid bullshiter repeats the bullshit she was paid to say back to the people who paid her. Let’s hope this leak is assigned exactly the weight it has, which is none.

/warily eyes various dumb as fuck both-siding media talking heads.
posted by Artw at 8:25 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

The memo is in the tweet. It’s...ugh.

Mitchell doesn't address Kavnaugh's credibility whatsoever. This is a political hack job.

They literally hired a prosecutor to discredit a sexual assault victim.
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:31 PM on September 30, 2018 [62 favorites]

Apologies if I’m mistaken, but my search didn’t turn up this Buzzfeed News article in any of these posts: How Michael Avenatti Got His Start In Political Dark Arts Under Rahm Emanuel. Until reading it I didn’t think of him as more than just a canny attention-grabbing attorney.

And an Avenatti impact statement from Friday's Dallas Morning News: Head of Arlington private school resigns over tweet targeting Michael Avenatti.
posted by kgander at 8:40 PM on September 30, 2018 [4 favorites]

Canada, U.S. reach tentative NAFTA deal.

Details are just coming out, but the deal largely seems to preserve the status quo and limit the US's ability to randomly impose tariffs. An unspecified amount of American Dairy will be let into Canada in exchange (probably around the 3.25% of the market that was allowed in under the new TPP).
posted by Orange Pamplemousse at 8:42 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

The memo is in the tweet. It’s...ugh.

It's not an ugh, it's a joke. The big gotchas:

1) She supposedly struggled to name Kavanaugh since she didn't tell her husband or therapist his name. OR she elected to keep a name she clearly knew to herself given the circumstances.

2) She changed her description of the assault from "physical abuse" on one occasion to "sexual assault." OR she considers pushing someone into room and then pinning her down and covering her mouth and trying to rape her a physical in addition to sexual assault or tried to minimize it to her husband.

3) She can't remember the exact date or location. As I've posted before, I'd love Rachel Mitchell to tell me the address of her best friend when she was 15. Or her phone number. She undoubtedly went there and called hundreds of times, so it should be easy, right?

4) The 4 friends don't corroborate it. ACTUALLY, 2 friends say they don't remember, one says she doesn't remember but believes her, and one is fucking Mark Judge, who also is saying he doesn't remember.

5) She said Judge and Kavanaugh were talking to people downstairs, but then said she couldn't hear what they were saying. OR she heard them talking as they went down the stairs, saw them talking with people as she left, and assumed they were talking to people in the time when she couldn't clearly hear. Yes, that bullshit aborted line of questioning is a big gotcha here.

6) She claims to have PTSD, claustrophobia and other issues stemming from the attack, but somehow manages to fly. Yes, that other bullshit line of questioning is another big gotcha.

Republican hack provides hackery to the Republicans who paid for her hackery.
posted by chris24 at 8:43 PM on September 30, 2018 [43 favorites]

I told y'all she was part of Arpios crew, if course she's a partisan hack. But let us still not forget, she's a paid beard, and the republicans want you pissed at her, not them. Don't be fooled.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:48 PM on September 30, 2018 [25 favorites]

NYT, Democrats Denounce Limits on F.B.I.’s Kavanaugh Inquiry as a ‘Farce’, scrolling down...:

In a call to Senator Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, nine days ago from his Bedminster, N.J., country club, Mr. Trump unleashed an expletive-filled tirade, telling Mr. McConnell that he had let the process get away from him.

Mr. Trump later told associates that the Republicans and Mr. McGahn had erred by not quickly holding a full Senate vote on Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination on Friday, after the Judiciary Committee advanced it along party lines, the people said. The president said senators like Mr. Flake who were wavering about the nomination should have been forced to vote against Judge Kavanaugh and suffer the political consequences, the people said.

This is fine.

Mayer and Farrow, New Yorker, The Confusion Surrounding the F.B.I.’s Renewed Investigation of Brett Kavanaugh, in which witnesses are finding that the FBI is hard to reach:

With a one-week deadline looming over the investigation, some who say they have information relevant to the F.B.I.’s probe are suspicious that the investigation will amount to what one of Kavanaugh’s former Yale classmates called a “whitewash.” Roberta Kaplan, an attorney representing one potential witness, Elizabeth Rasor, a former girlfriend of Kavanaugh’s high-school friend Mark Judge, said her client “has repeatedly made clear to the Senate Judiciary Committee and to the F.B.I. that she would like the opportunity to speak to them.” But, Kaplan said, “We’ve received no substantive response.”
...
A Yale classmate attempting to corroborate Deborah Ramirez’s account that, during her freshman year at Yale, [I'm going to edit out the description of Ramirez's allegation here, while it's not exceptionally graphic, so that everyone has a choice about what to read], said that he, too, has struggled unsuccessfully to reach the F.B.I. The classmate, who asked to remain anonymous, recalled hearing about Ramirez’s allegation either the night it happened or during the following two days. The classmate said that he was “one-hundred-per-cent certain” that he had heard an account that was practically identical to Ramirez’s, thirty-five years ago, but the two had never spoken about it. He had hoped to convey this to the F.B.I., but, when he reached out to a Bureau official in Washington, D.C., he was told to contact the F.B.I. field office nearest his home. When he tried that, he was referred to a recording. After several attempts to reach a live person at the field office, he finally reached an official who he said had no idea what he was talking about. At this point, he went back to the official at the F.B.I.’s D.C. headquarters, who then referred him, too, to an 800-number tip line. (He eventually left a tip through an online portal.)

“I thought it was going to be an investigation,” the Yale classmate said, “but instead it seems it’s just an alibi for Republicans to vote for Kavanaugh.” He said that he had been in touch with other classmates who also wanted to provide information corroborating Ramirez’s account, but that they had not done so.

The thing with the Mitchell memo is that she publicly criticized the format, and as we all saw, was prohibited from asking Kavanaugh questions for more than 10 minutes. Why did she come to any kind of conclusion at all, let alone one full of absurd nitpicking like whether she used the words "sexual assault" or "physical abuse" at certain times or exactly how afraid of flying she is? She signed up to do a partisan job, was prevented from even doing that, and yet came to the conclusion she was hired to provide anyway. It does expose Mitchell's overall strategy though, which was to be gentle and not push much on Ford as she testified, then criticize her for stuff she was never asked about.

Finally, please witness the great courage of Sen. Flake, who doesn't even bother to pretend he's not an unprincipled hack: Flake: "Not a chance" I would have called for Kavanaugh investigation if I was running for reelection
posted by zachlipton at 8:50 PM on September 30, 2018 [50 favorites]

I am interested to know what will be Avenatti's next move: He just said on MSNBC that he can't go to the FBI on his own (Starts at 10:00). So can he do a full hour on Primetime TV with Julie Swetnick & her witnesses? or just wait?
posted by growabrain at 8:52 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

1) She supposedly struggled to name Kavanaugh since she didn't tell her husband or therapist his name. OR she elected to keep a name she clearly knew to herself given the circumstances.

OR the therapist didn't put the name in their notes, because they're trained not to.
posted by xammerboy at 8:58 PM on September 30, 2018 [49 favorites]

growabrain: He just said on MSNBC that he can't go to the FBI on his own (Starts at 10:00). So can he do a full hour on Primetime TV with his client & her witnesses?

That's up to her; if she chooses not to I absolutely don't blame her. It's not even a question of "greater good" per se (although doing it would be extremely brave) because there's no guarentee (only a possibility) that a TV interview would change Senate votes.

A thing about the FBI's limited scope is that it makes sense that, in general, they don't have some sweeping mandate to investigate everyone, everywhere, for everything (although in practice that's precisely how they've behaved in years past). I wouldn't normally want arbitrary citizens to have the power to "make" the FBI do this or that. The problem here is that accounts like Swetnick's are extremely credible leads, and hence intentionally ignoring them is a deliberate act of malpractice.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:00 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

Republican hack provides hackery to the Republicans who paid for her hackery.

That's all talking points for them. It's not meant to reflect objective reality. The BIGGEST issue I have all of this is that they've successfully redefined the standard for a seat on the US Supreme Court from "Above the appearance of impropriety" to "not able to be prosecuted based on the available evidence"
posted by mikelieman at 9:02 PM on September 30, 2018 [55 favorites]

You can't make this up. Chad Ludington, the history prof who is now coming forward to say #Kavanaugh drank like a fish at Yale, is the author of: ‘Politics and the Taste for Wine in England and Scotland, 1660-1860’ (Columbia University, 2003)

Brett is like an asshole Gump, going through life making extremely negative impressions on everyone he meets, shaping their lives
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:15 PM on September 30, 2018 [44 favorites]

they've successfully redefined the standard for a seat on the US Supreme Court from "Above the appearance of impropriety" to "not able to be prosecuted based on the available evidence"

And to the extent possible, suppressing all the "bad evidence" from even entering the picture. Democratic senators were unable to question Mark Judge, nobody had access to the therapist, the polygraph witness, any other witnesses. This would be more than just a "he said, she said" if they'd bother trying to get to the actual truth. I have no faith that they will allow anything meaningful to come out of the FBI follow-up.
posted by p3t3 at 9:19 PM on September 30, 2018 [8 favorites]

The strange thing to me is that Kavanaugh is tainted to the point that it makes no sense to confirm him. It will engender lifelong hatred of the Republican party, become a flashpoint issue every time the court makes a decision, engender ongoing investigations, possibly lead to impeachment, provide a rationale for packing the court, etc. Confirming him could easily end up being one of the worst decisions they ever make.
posted by xammerboy at 9:41 PM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

When is he going to be impeached though? After the pardons most likely. Also I'd like to know so I can write IMPEACH WEEK in my calender in biro.
posted by adept256 at 9:46 PM on September 30, 2018 [11 favorites]

Alright, this is rather explosive I think. Sen. Harris has released a transcript of a call from her office to Kavanaugh made Wed. evening. It regards what I think is accuser #6, Jane Doe from Oceanside, CA. She claims Kavanaugh & another boy gave her a ride home from a party & both raped her in the car. I think we've heard about this claim before but only in vague terms. This is the actual text. It's quite graphic, explicit & disturbing. It is also uncorroborated.

Here's the link to the transcript from Wed. evening [PDF], on the Senate Judiciary Committee website. The letter itself starts on page 13.
posted by scalefree at 9:59 PM on September 30, 2018 [14 favorites]

The whole thing is not only uncorroborated, it's essentially uncorroboratable - no identifying information, no return address, no location, no date. But it was released by Sen. Harris & it was read to Kavanaugh, so it's at least notable for that.
posted by scalefree at 10:07 PM on September 30, 2018 [2 favorites]

It seems strange to release this. Was it done on purpose? I don't see anything on Harris' internet presence related to it. Is it part of a normal process? It's an anonymous and, as you say, not only uncorroborated but uncorroboratable allegation that nobody on the committee, including the Democrats, are going to be inclined to consider.
posted by Justinian at 10:12 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

I have to wonder if there's ever been a known case of the same person getting credibly accused of assault by many, many people and somehow being wholly vindicated (as in, the accusers eventually admit, unpressured, that they'd all been lying for some reason). Maybe there's a black man that's happened to, but a white man?

Even the one big case that rape culture's defendants are obsessed with, the Duke lacrosse incident, had (I think) a single accuser (but multiple accused). So it's true that sometimes an individual spins a tale (and it's typically more lurid than banal). But Kavanaugh not being guilty here would literally take a conspiracy, or at least a lot of people individually willing to risk a serious defamation lawsuit against them (in the laughable scenario that he wouldn't mind the discovery process) and compound that with federal perjury charges.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:14 PM on September 30, 2018 [6 favorites]

I was actually directed to it by a third party on Twitter. Have no idea on intent except it was apparently prepared for release by redacting all sensitive info within it.
posted by scalefree at 10:15 PM on September 30, 2018

The strange thing to me is that Kavanaugh is tainted to the point that it makes no sense to confirm him. It will engender lifelong hatred of the Republican party, become a flashpoint issue every time the court makes a decision, engender ongoing investigations, possibly lead to impeachment, provide a rationale for packing the court, etc. Confirming him could easily end up being one of the worst decisions they ever make.
posted by xammerboy at 1:41 PM on October 1 [3 favorites +] [!]

Somehow I'm completely at peace with that. I'm not at peace with the damage they'll do in the meantime, but by all means, Republicans, keep going.

I, an expat, used to know a guy who was impressively reckless. Like he would do this stuff where you're like "that can't possibly be a good idea" and he'd answer "nah it'll be fine! Look, I did it regardless of the risks, I'm awesome!" People called him a lot of things, but never stupid. They just stood by and watched. I...almost did a business thing with him, but after observing him for a time, his originally-current-later-former friends started to whisper secrets in my ear about damage he'd done to their lives, and he started to ask favors from me, so I abruptly cut ties.

Last I heard he skipped town after ripping off two businesses. He wouldn't have skipped town if jail wasn't an imminent certainty, if I know the guy, and so yeah, now someone who could have had a secure career as a superstar consultant gets to live as an international fugitive forever in fear that Facebook will dig him up in the next country. I always had niggling doubt until I heard that. His victims are still recovering, and many haven't learned their lesson, but many more have, and I doubt his brand of American swagger and handshake dealing will be welcome in my city's expat community for a long time to come.

If you look at it and go "how could they possibly be that stupid? how is this a good idea?" you're right. Their one trick is recklessness and disregard for consequences. Maybe that's a good quality if you're trying to kill a boar with a spear. Otherwise it's exactly as stupid as you think it is. Even if you are trying to kill a boar with a spear, why are you doing that? Did you weigh your options here?

'Cause people who pursue power for power's sake pretty much didn't stop to weigh their options. How much better is it to live in a just, equal world where everyone gets what they need and the government is democratic and people don't have to live in fear? Recklessness is a tool for the desperate and the greedy, and the Republicans have zero cause to be desperate. Sure, demographics are eating away at their dominance, but if you're gerrymandered in and comfy for the next 20 years, why not call it good? When you look at banana republics and failed states and think, "Yeah, that's the power structure I want," there's some nerves ain't firing right. These guys ARE that stupid. EXACTLY that stupid. Never forget it.
posted by saysthis at 10:24 PM on September 30, 2018 [36 favorites]

Previous Judiciary Committee transcripts of calls with Kavanaugh, including others that involved asking him about anonymous, unverifiable, and apparently an outright false accusation, came out of the majority's office and were posted on the committee website, just like this one was. As far as I can tell, the anonymous letter was sent to Sen. Harris's office, but the transcript of the call was released by the majority, not her office.

It being entirely anonymous and basically uncorroboratable, I'm not really sure what can be done with it unless the sender comes forward.
posted by zachlipton at 10:25 PM on September 30, 2018 [1 favorite]

I'm fascinated that the transcript which scalefree links to has an index at the end with redacted words in it. So, you can see where in the alphabet all of the redacted words fall relative to the non-redacted ones. It seems like you ought to be able to mash that up with autocorrect or something to un-redact the document.
posted by XMLicious at 10:31 PM on September 30, 2018 [9 favorites]

The whole thing is not only uncorroborated, it's essentially uncorroboratable - no identifying information, no return address, no location, no date. But it was released by Sen. Harris & it was read to Kavanaugh, so it's at least notable for that.

Yeah, it's 100% .... in character with everything we've learned about Brett Kavanaugh. By itself it's not a lot, but considered in the totality of the record, it's consistent with other testimony.

Again, the very fact that we're having this discussion shows how broken things are, and that the idea of another nominee, without this baggage, shows it's all a big "Fuck you, you can't stop us." I wish Howard Zinn was still with us to keep us all in perspective.
posted by mikelieman at 11:24 PM on September 30, 2018 [3 favorites]

I'm fascinated that the transcript which scalefree links to has an index at the end with redacted words in it. So, you can see where in the alphabet all of the redacted words fall relative to the non-redacted ones. It seems like you ought to be able to mash that up with autocorrect or something to un-redact the document.

I'm appalled that the attendees were redacted. Again, another "F.U., because we can" Performative Cruelty. May I never get used to it, because then they'll have won.
posted by mikelieman at 11:25 PM on September 30, 2018

The strange thing to me is that Kavanaugh is tainted to the point that it makes no sense to confirm him. It will engender lifelong hatred of the Republican party, become a flashpoint issue every time the court makes a decision, engender ongoing investigations, possibly lead to impeachment, provide a rationale for packing the court, etc. Confirming him could easily end up being one of the worst decisions they ever make.

You assume that the goal is actually to take over the Supreme Court in the most subtle way possible and turn it conservative. If that was the case we would have had Gorsuch v2 nominated.
If Trump is getting marching orders from Putin, this may be part of the "destroy all credible institutions" directive that included shitting on NATO and the WTO despite few Trump supporters having strong feelings about these. Attacking NAFTA at least made sense from a populist standpoint. Appointing a naked partisan with a mean streak to a lifetime appointment is a good way to end up with decades of disruption.
posted by benzenedream at 11:54 PM on September 30, 2018 [18 favorites]

Meet the new NAFTA, almost the same as the old NAFTA. So Canada's big concession was to allow the US access to 3.6% of its dairy market. Except they'd already agreed to allow access to 3.25% in TPP, so it's really a 0.35% concession. In return the US allows a bunch of other minor stuff.

So it's essentially NAFTA with some cosmetic tweaks and then renamed so that Trump can claim he's the greatest dealmaker in all of human history. I hate my life.
posted by Justinian at 11:55 PM on September 30, 2018 [59 favorites]

After nearly 2 years, South Africa is finally getting a US ambassador - (SA born) handbag designer Lana Marks.
posted by PenDevil at 12:49 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

You law-talkin' people, does this idea, tweeted by @HowardA_Esq, have any legs?

rather than hanging your hopes on the FBI investigation-which most GOP already said won't change their mind-call the US attorney for [DC] and have them charge Kavanaugh with perjury. That is automatically disqualifying and is easily proved that he lied under oath. The US Attorney for DC is Jessie Liu. If she charges Kavanaugh with perjury (they have 5 proved lies so far) the vote cannot go forward. Don't waste time with Flake or FBI. Call her, write, be heard and save us!

Yes she was appointed by Trump, but maybe public pressure can get some media coverage ...?
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 1:29 AM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

I can't think of many things less likely to be productive than badgering a US Attorney with phone calls instructing her to prosecute someone for perjury.
posted by Justinian at 1:39 AM on October 1, 2018 [30 favorites]

This may be an obvious point, but is the majority now releasing the transcripts to bolster their argument that there has already been a full "investigation" of Kavanaugh, so there's no need for further FBI interviews?
posted by Cocodrillo at 2:49 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

The strange thing to me is that Kavanaugh is tainted to the point that it makes no sense to confirm him. It will engender lifelong hatred of the Republican party, become a flashpoint issue every time the court makes a decision, engender ongoing investigations, possibly lead to impeachment, provide a rationale for packing the court, etc. Confirming him could easily end up being one of the worst decisions they ever make.

You don't understand. Look at the completely false rationales the GOP puts up for voter ID laws. Look at the endless gerrymandering and interfering with the ability of people other than well-off white people to get ID documents. Look at the recurring floating of trial balloons for, for example, splitting Democratic-dominated states' (and only Democratic-dominated states') electoral votes based on the popular vote outcome. Look at how they regard every electoral outcome that does not elect a Republican as illegitimate. Look at how the gerrymandered, illegitimately GOP-dominated North Carolina legislature stripped the governor's office of many of its powers when a Democrat won.

The Republicans rejected democracy decades ago. They are a totalitarian party operating in an increasingly weakened democratic state, paying whatever lip service is necessary and working around its restraints and simply ignoring them when they understand those restraints as more theoretical than actual. They do not care to preserve democratic institutions or to be seen positively by the public because they do not intend for those to be factors in their ability to maintain power.
posted by Pope Guilty at 3:59 AM on October 1, 2018 [85 favorites]

So it's essentially NAFTA with some cosmetic tweaks and then renamed so that Trump can claim he's the greatest dealmaker in all of human history.

There's some other things, the big one is we forced Canada and Mexico to adopt the US copyright protections for life+70 years.

So we took the worst part of the TPP, plus milk, and gave them back some assurances Trump can't impose unilateral sanctions.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:04 AM on October 1, 2018 [9 favorites]

You know, it's funny. I've been following #metoo and of course this thread for quite some time, and for the first time today, it occurred to me that even to my dearest friends in the world, I've only ever talked about one of the two men and two boys who molested me when I was a little girl.

I don't think I've ever actually said any of their names out loud to anyone. It's partly because I have only hazy memories of my childhood, and because that haziness has insulated me from any real sense of trauma over it. I'm sad and angry about it, but I haven't relived any of it; I haven't been triggered by it. I'm only sharing it here, now, because of how amazed I am -- when I think about it objectively -- that I've never really felt compelled to share it before, not even the few times I've talked to therapists.

And yet if I learned any of those men were about to be nominated to the Supreme Court, I'd absolutely want to tell someone and have it stopped. Whether or not I'd be brave enough to actually do it is another question. But I can absolutely guarantee you that I would not be able to provide exact dates/times/places or physical evidence of any kind. And the only people I told about any of it when it happened -- I told my my mom and dad who/what/when about the scariest time -- are now dead.

What I've been thinking about most lately is how hard it is for anyone to prove something like this. Even if my parents had gone to the police right away with what I told them and the police had investigated thoroughly, there wouldn't have been physical evidence or corroborating witnesses. Nothing would have happened. And my parents didn't do that -- maybe because they knew nothing would happen, and that it would just be another horrible experience for me on top of the actual assault. (What they did do was ensure that I was never again alone with the man who attacked me.)

I think the thing I'm saddest and angriest about is how many of me there are out there, and how impossible it would be to prove any of it in a court of law. I don't know how we deal with that as a society (though #metoo is a great step toward dealing with it as a community). How do we make the most vulnerable less vulnerable? How do we make men and boys less likely to become rapists and abusers? How do we make reporting these things feel as safe and natural and important as reporting a mugging or any other kind of assault? These are systemic problems and so far, none of our systemic approaches seem to be working.
posted by invincible summer at 4:12 AM on October 1, 2018 [83 favorites]

Feminists won’t back down: What’s next for #MeToo after the Kavanaugh vote? - Amanda Marcotte, Salon

The election of Trump and now the advancement of Kavanaugh to a floor vote were a stark reminder of the power of reaction in politics. Anti-feminists have been stewing with fury at the way that feminism, pro-choice politics, and anti-rape activism have become a rising force over the past decade. Now they are rather blatantly trying to slap back by putting men credibly accused of sexual violence into positions of power.

But that kind of thing works both ways: The more aggressive conservatives get about entrenching the power of alleged sexual assailants and other apparent misogynists, the bigger a reaction they can expect from feminists, who are fed up and furious. ...

posted by ZeusHumms at 4:34 AM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

Lindsey Graham and Brett Kavanaugh: Welcome to the smoldering ruins of American democracy - Andrew O'Hehir, Salon

Lindsey Graham is a massive hypocrite. But his outburst during the Kavanaugh hearings point hinted at deeper truth.
...
What struck me on Thursday is that guys like Graham and Kavanaugh, who have pretty much had things exactly the way they wanted them for their entire lives, have finally been forced to notice that American politics fundamentally does not work. Whether or not you read Graham’s tirade as a man-in-the-mirror moment, where he unintentionally revealed himself, he has a point. From any possible point of view, this confirmation — and indeed the entire political ecosystem around it — has become a sham, a circus, an embarrassing scandal and a national disgrace. In an environment where Americans agree about nothing, we can probably agree about that.

posted by ZeusHumms at 4:40 AM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

NYT, Democrats Denounce Limits on F.B.I.’s Kavanaugh Inquiry as a ‘Farce’,

The NYT's heavily revised update of their article from late last night includes this piece of information: "Officials said the F.B.I.’s “limited” supplemental background check of Judge Kavanaugh could be finished by Monday morning."

I need more coffee.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:45 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

I have to wonder if there's ever been a known case of the same person getting credibly accused of assault by many, many people and somehow being wholly vindicated (as in, the accusers eventually admit, unpressured, that they'd all been lying for some reason).

The figure for the number of sexual assault reports that turn out to be false, or are suspected to be so, is 4%. The odds are ~1 in 240 million that 6 independent* reports would be.

Not that the math is really needed to know Kavanaugh is a lying sack of shit, but it does highlight how absurdly out of touch with reality the Republican position is.


* I realise that in a highly public/politicised case then the assumption of independence doesn't necessarily hold, but there is corroboration that pre-dates the accusation being made public in at least 3 of the cases that I know of.
posted by Buntix at 4:56 AM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

"I had no connections to Yale" + his grandfather went to Yale, he's a legacy student = he perjured himself, vote no, nomination fails, move on.

I understand there may be more disqualifying matters for the judge. But how is this not getting the simple traction it deserves? I assume Republicans will suddenly feel lying under oath is okey-dokey, but still. Y'know. Print it in the paper. Say it on the recap. Something.
posted by petebest at 5:19 AM on October 1, 2018 [50 favorites]

I think their answer to that one is that he specifically said that he had no connections to Yale Law School, and grandpa only went there for undergrad. Of course, Kavanaugh also went to Yale for undergrad, which definitely was helped by his legacy status, and going to an Ivy for undergrad puts you at an advantage for admission to Yale Law School. But that's much too nuanced a trail of privilege for this crowd. If you take that into account, next thing you know you might have to consider that the wealth gap between black and white people might have something to do with the fact that only white people were able to buy homes with the GI Bill.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:52 AM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]

Buntix I realise that in a highly public/politicised case then the assumption of independence doesn't necessarily hold, but there is corroboration that pre-dates the accusation being made public in at least 3 of the cases that I know of.

Oh wow, I thought that only held true of Ford, with the therapist's notes.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:53 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Axios's Jonathan Swan served up fresh Trump White House leaks last night: Brett Kavanaugh Is "Too Big to Fail"

"He's too big to fail now," said a senior source involved in the confirmation process. "Our base, our voters, our side, people are so mad," the source continued. "There's nowhere to go. We're gonna make them f---ing vote. [Joe] Manchin in West Virginia, in those red states. Joe Donnelly? He said he's a no? Fine, we'll see how that goes. There will be a vote on him [Kavanaugh]. ... It will be a slugfest of a week."

"There's no time before the [midterm] election to put up a new person," a White House official close to the process told me.[...]

Sources close to the White House legal operation complained that even if they did want to rush through a new nominee, they couldn’t be sure any male nominee wouldn’t have what one called a “Kavanaugh problem.” "You nominate any man and how do you guarantee ... How do you vet for that?" said that source. "For an accusation that's 36 years old? You can't."

There's been plenty of speculation that, after the elections, Trump could put up a female judge such as Amy Coney Barrett, who was on his shortlist last time. But two sources involved at a senior level in Kavanaugh's confirmation told me they worry Barrett might end up being "too conservative" for the pro-choice Republican senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski.

Is this a bluff, leveraging the shadow of the future? This situation has come to feel a lot like the GOP's 2017 tax cut—a godawful mess the Republicans had to push through because they have little else to show for controlling all three branches of government in the face of an increasingly restive base.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:17 AM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

Jay Nordlinger, last of the NeverTrumpers, reminds us how immoral and repugnant it is that Trump says he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un.
posted by clawsoon at 6:17 AM on October 1, 2018 [9 favorites]

I assume Republicans will suddenly feel lying under oath is okey-dokey, but still.

They've always seemed to believe that their ends justify the means.
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:34 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

Kavanaugh promises he'll practice an "original intent" interpretation of the constitution when he can't even engage in an honest "original intent" interpretation of his own yearbook.

On top of that, some of the original intent of the Constitution was to preserve a slaveholding oligarchy in half the nation. "Original intent" as a doctrine is worthless, to say nothing of morally bankrupt in the ways conservative judges deploy the phrase.
posted by Gelatin at 6:36 AM on October 1, 2018 [30 favorites]

I hate to say this, but I think we've been focusing too much on angry women in the electorate and maybe no enough on angry men. I am not entirely sure that the Kavanaugh situation is going to be a net gain for Democrats in the midterms.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:37 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Kavanaugh promises he'll practice an "original intent" interpretation of the constitution...

Cool, so he'll rule the 2nd Amendment only applies to barrel-loading black powder musket rifles.
posted by PenDevil at 6:38 AM on October 1, 2018 [30 favorites]

People trying to get through to the FBI are having to settle for leaving anonymous tips. I'm imagining what kind of information is being left on the table.
posted by BibiRose at 6:40 AM on October 1, 2018 [24 favorites]

Meet the new NAFTA, almost the same as the old NAFTA. So Canada's big concession was to allow the US access to 3.6% of its dairy market. Except they'd already agreed to allow access to 3.25% in TPP, so it's really a 0.35% concession. In return the US allows a bunch of other minor stuff.

Details are still coming out, but this Canadian sees what we've given up and what we've managed to keep, but doesn't see any gains for us. And the steel and aluminum tariffs are still in place with no assurances. So 'a good day for Canada' means we weren't beaten up too badly? Canada went into this thing merely wanting to update and refresh, and put in lots of good language about workers' rights and gender parity and the environment. If that was the aim, we haven't achieved it.

My old man said that the sign of a good deal is where no-one is happy, as it means everyone gave up something, and that's true, but I'm not seeing what the States gave up.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:43 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

Pre-work Letter/Call script:

Senator [name],

The process of the investigation into the credible allegations of sexual assault against Brett Kavanaugh is falling far short of my expectations for a non-partisan, independent investigations into the facts of the situations.

First, witnesses and victims with relevant information, including Doctor Blasey Ford, have been unable to get into contact with FBI investigators. This state of affairs is wholly unacceptable.

Second, the apparent White House interference in the scope of the investigation must stop, as it is clear conflict of interest. There must be interviews with more than four witnesses to gauge Kavanaugh's history and character.

Finally, during this pivotal moment in the history of the Republic, Senator Grassley has neglected to have Judiciary Committee staff answering phones or clearing the voice mail. In effect, these actions, prevent voters from sharing their opinions and desires on this most important of circumstances. Please demand from him that he actually take calls from all voters.

[For Democrats: Please use all means possible to get the majority party to commit to a thorough, non-partisan investigation into these accusations, including the denial of unanimous consent. Please also warn Murkowski, Collins, Manchin, Heitkamp, and Flake that failure to enforce these expectations will result in outraged women voting, campaigning, and donating for and to their opponents.]

[For Republicans: I demand a full non-partisan, independent FBI investigation into Kavanaugh's conduct. Failure to support such an investigation will cause me to describe you as a supporter of sexual assault and donate actively to your electoral opponents.]

Sincerely,
[your name]

Let's give 'em hell.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 6:54 AM on October 1, 2018 [43 favorites]

I think scrapping Chapter 11 (allows corporations to sue governments at special tribunals for interfering in their business) is seen as a win for Canada. We are usually on the receiving end of those suits.
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:03 AM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Sources close to the White House legal operation complained that even if they did want to rush through a new nominee, they couldn’t be sure any male nominee wouldn’t have what one called a “Kavanaugh problem.”

Bullshit. They didn't vet Kavanaugh. Even a cursory background check would've showed he was a raging drunk. It's probably in the FBI backgrounds. They didn't read them or didn't care.

And Gorsuch didn't have this shit, presumably because he wasn't getting blackout every night from age 16 - 27(?).

This isn't actually hard.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:04 AM on October 1, 2018 [45 favorites]

Yeah it's bullshit, but it also sustains their narrative. ANY guy could be a blackout drunk gang rapist because a) horseplay and b) Democratic lies.

It's like you scratch off one layer of shit and there's another, smellier layer of shit underneath
posted by angrycat at 7:10 AM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

Chapter 11 was costly for Canada, where Canada ended up paying American companies big settlements for government decisions like banning fracking, stopping a quarry that could damage groundwater, banning MMT in gasoline (a suspected neurotoxin), and banning export of toxic chemicals.
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:11 AM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

Excommunicated Cardinal, thanks for the script. Just sent my senators a copy via resistbot. (By the way, it meets resistbot's test for a letter to the editor)
posted by mabelstreet at 7:16 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

I liked this by John Oliver:

“It is worth taking a moment now to note the norm that has just been shattered, because I know that we’re all basically callous to people talking that way now, but we are supposed to have at least nine people left in America who do not talk that way, and yet Kavanaugh just all but came out and said that he’s going to approach his entire tenure as one giant case of ’me vs. the fucking libtard cucks.”

The list is long, but it's enough that Kavanaugh unprecedentedly attacked Democrats in a partisan manner during questioning. The whole point of the vetting process is to ensure Kavanaugh has sound judgment. I don't even understand why he did it. That's what the Republican Senators are for.
posted by xammerboy at 7:20 AM on October 1, 2018 [92 favorites]

He did it to impress Trump, which is what animates all GOP politicians and operatives now

Next Week Rand Paul is going to show up with high-cut slicked back hair and a Mao jacket
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:23 AM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]

clawsoon: Jay Nordlinger, last of the NeverTrumpers, reminds us how immoral and repugnant it is that Trump says he "fell in love" with Kim Jong-un.

zachlipton: @ddale8: !!! Trump on Kim Jong Un: "I was really being tough and so was he. And we would go back and forth. And then we fell in love. No really. He wrote me beautiful letters. They were great letters. And then we fell in love." Trump says the media is going to scold him for saying he fell in love with Kim Jong Un, but it's true, and it's easy to be boring and presidential, but his way is better.

This was another example of the trademark Donald Trump "Ignore that garbage fire (of my own making), look at this shiny new thing!" attempt at re-direction. He wants "the media" to scold him, because that means they're talking about him, not about his unstable, alcoholic, serial rapist judicial nominee. He really is the Reality TV president, trying to concoct a new bit of drama to replace the old story line.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:39 AM on October 1, 2018 [9 favorites]

HuffPo: Millionaire Sen. Chuck Grassley Applying For Trump’s Farm Bailout Funds

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) supported President Donald Trump’s $12 billion bailout for U.S. farmers to mitigate the damaging effects of the trade war. Now the senator is applying for those same bailout funds for his own 750-acre Iowa farm, The Washington Post reports.

Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is also applying for payments.

While the bailout program has been pitched as aid to struggling farmers, Grassley’s net worth was listed in 2015 as $3.3 million, and Tester’s was $3.9 million that year, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

These people have no shame.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:48 AM on October 1, 2018 [53 favorites]

Matthew Dessem for Slate: Here Are Some Rules for Playing That Well-Known Drinking Game, The Devil’s Triangle
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:49 AM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]

Thanks Excommunicated Cardinal, I sent my senators a version of your script too.

And thanks mabelstreet, I did it via resistbot which I hadn't used before! Super handy.
posted by alleycat01 at 7:49 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

This was another example of the trademark Donald Trump "Ignore that garbage fire (of my own making), look at this shiny new thing!" attempt at re-direction. He wants "the media" to scold him, because that means they're talking about him, not about his unstable, alcoholic, serial rapist judicial nominee. He really is the Reality TV president, trying to concoct a new bit of drama to replace the old story line.

Yes, completely. And the media falls for it every.damn.time.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]

NAFTAv2 (please let call it that so Trump doesn't get its petty victory over the name) is probably going to cost Justin its reelection, it's going to be widely impopular in Qc because of dairy and the fact that aluminum tarifs are still in place and lumber still isn't settled. Although there really was no way to win since the auto sector is crucial to Ontario and he needs both of those provinces to vote liberal to expect a victory.

It also increase the duty exemption for personal purchases to 150$ which might end up being catastrophic for Canadian retailers and also exempt the first 40$ from federal taxes.

The less benevolent part of me hopes that someday we'll be able to answer in kind. But that's very unlikely.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 7:53 AM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

Before we move on from September news, last week a superior court judge has ordered Indiana Governor Eric Holcomb to turn over any emails about the meetings between Pence, Trump, and Carrier about saving jobs in the state (AP). (And naturally, Carrier later laid off Indiana workers in droves, despite Trump's bragging about his deal.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:05 AM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

Isn't it... interesting that Clinton got impeached and I believe disbarred over almost exactly the type and tenor of perjury that Kavanaugh is suspected of with Kavanaugh's help? I'd like to hear more Republicans get asked about why that's okay.
posted by Selena777 at 8:15 AM on October 1, 2018 [32 favorites]

"You nominate any man and how do you guarantee ... How do you vet for that?" said that source. "For an accusation that's 36 years old? You can't."

That's a fascinating claim - the idea that every single male judge in the US is likely to have a history of assaulting women, so there's no way to find the ones who don't. Men who haven't molested women should reply to the article and point out that their unnamed source is declaring that all men are wannabe rapists, or at least, that politicians are incapable of identifying the rapists in their midst.

Of course, he's trying to pretend it's one accusation, not several, and that they're totally unrelated to the man's history of being a raging drunk, which is hardly a secret.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 8:15 AM on October 1, 2018 [41 favorites]

"You nominate any man"
There's a solution to that particular problem
posted by Green With You at 8:21 AM on October 1, 2018 [107 favorites]

Selena777: Isn't it... interesting that Clinton got impeached and I believe disbarred over almost exactly the type and tenor of perjury that Kavanaugh is suspected of with Kavanaugh's help? I'd like to hear more Republicans get asked about why that's okay.

For Republicans, the "other side" doing something similar amounts to infinite license to do the same even if that other person faced some degree of consequence for it. In response to these points about Kavanaugh, you still hear them rant about Al Franken and Eric Schneiderman, and Harvey Weinstein, all men who lost their jobs over it.

From their perspective (and unfortunately that of too many fence-sitting Americans who "don't pay much attention to politics"), saying "We have to give Kavanaugh this seat because Bill Clinton lied about serious sexual misconduct" makes total sense.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:30 AM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

That's a fascinating claim - the idea that every single male judge in the US is likely to have a history of assaulting women, so there's no way to find the ones who don't.

I'm so old that I remember when talking about how male ideals get wrapped up in bad behavior like drinking, like starting fights, like downgrading sexual assault and bullying into 'horseplay,' all the things embodied in "toxic masculinity" got the response of "So you think ALL MASCULINITY is TOXIC!?!?!"

I'm so old that I remember when talking about how structures of social power allow certain classes of people to do things, and how even though any individual man may not himself engage in that behavior, he benefits from it being done, because it enforces a certain way of being, all the things embodied in "rape culture," got met with "Surely you don't mean ALL MEN?!?! #NotAll Men"

Just as I did not anticipate that the American war hawk party¹ would decided to abandon² American imperial ambitions, I did not anticipate the American social conservative party¹ to engage in such a forthright and radical critique of the nature of gendered power structures.

1: they sell themselves³ as this, you know what I mean, don't @ me.
2: they're not going to, but "Iraq was a mistake" is a selling point
3: Yes, yes, a cartoon of a pyramid in the clouds with two legs labeled "left-wing" and "right-wing" whose filename is neoliberalism.jpeg
posted by the man of twists and turns at 8:36 AM on October 1, 2018 [14 favorites]

it might not hurt to adopt background investigation and candidate vetting mechanisms open to finding reports of sexual assault. i am assuming, without having researched the question, that methods at present reflect institutional values prior to this #metoo inflection point and are revealed as inadequate in light of the many "vetted" men in positions of civil trust who turn out to be subject to credible charges along those lines. would welcome more knowledgeable views. in my few experiences serving as a reference related to a friend or associate's security clearance, the investigator has asked about drug use, membership in certain groups & antigovernment activities or statements. i do not believe there has ever been any question about violence, continence or sexual assault. of course, in those cases, the person whose clearance was at issue selected me to be the reference; if that person had thought that i knew of (or was likely to report) any such assaults, they almost certainly would have chosen someone else, who did not know or was unlikely to report, as a reference. N.B. in no such cases did i actually have such information.
posted by 20 year lurk at 8:37 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

New CBS News/YouGov Poll (conducted September 28-30):

Americans are divided and somewhat more opposed to Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination than in favor of it after hearing Thursday from both Kavanaugh and the woman who has accused him of sexual assault, Christine Blasey Ford, but strong partisanship increasingly defines the public's views. Republicans have grown more in favor of his confirmation compared to last week, and nearly half say they'd be angry if Kavanaugh isn't eventually confirmed. Democrats are increasingly opposed after the hearings, with nearly half expressing anger at the idea of Kavanaugh eventually being seated on the court.

The net shift in sentiment over the week has been toward opposition. Today 37 percent of Americans do not think the Senate should confirm (up from 30 percent opposed last week) and 35 percent think the Senate should confirm (up from 32 percent last week) as partisan sentiments have hardened. Democratic opposition has gone from 60 percent to 68 percent, and Republican support has gone from 69 percent to 75 percent. Independents are more closely divided and slightly more in favor of confirmation than opposed.

Partisanship appears much more closely connected to overall views than does gender. Among Republican women, 70 percent feel Kavanaugh should be confirmed, while 80 percent of Republican men do. Among Democratic women, 65 percent oppose it, and 73 percent of Democratic men oppose. Overall, 41 percent of men feel Kavanaugh should be confirmed, and 29 percent of women nationwide do, with relatively more women saying it is still too soon to say.

Here's a link to a PDF of the full results.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:40 AM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Republicans have grown more in favor of his confirmation compared to last week

This is who they are. There is no bottom.

9% of self-described Republicans do not want Kavanaugh confirmed. More Americans approve of Communism than Republicans disapprove of Kavanaugh.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:58 AM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]

I have seen Slate, Newsweek, and Intercept stories cited to claim that Kavanaugh was a legacy admission at Yale. But the only evidence in any of the stories I have clicked through to read is a copy of his grandfather's Yale yearbook.

I am told by a high school teacher I know that having alumni grandparents don't generally qualify a student for "legacy" admissions status... So it can be perfectly true that Kavanaugh's grandfather went there, and also true that he was not admitted as a "legacy."

Does anyone know for sure or know how find out? I am going to be mad at Slate and Newsweek and the Intercept for making this a thing if it's not a thing. After all, he's lied about so much OTHER stuff.
posted by OnceUponATime at 9:00 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

Doktor Zed: Americans are divided and somewhat more opposed to Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination than in favor of it after hearing Thursday from both Kavanaugh and the woman who has accused him of sexual assault, Christine Blasey Ford, but strong partisanship increasingly defines the public's views

Hot take from Fox: Dems to pay in November for overplaying Kavanaugh hand (Bryan Dean Wright's opinion, Oct. 1, 2018), which opens with a summary of Trump's West Virginia rally, where he "slammed Democrats for obstructing Kavanaugh's nomination [MERRICK GARLAND, MUVVAFUNKA! - ed.] and the general treatment of him, and their shift toward socialism, politically [YES, PLEASE. -ed.] -- subtitle "Will Kavanaugh hearing spur a red wave in the midterms?"

Top Fox Pick (in Opinion): "So, Democrats: What are you hiding from the FBI?" (Smug Manikin, Ben Shapiro) -- subtitle: "Shapiro: FBI probe won't satisfy Kavanaugh's opposition" [You don't say -ed.] And Shapiro says that Dems, if they regain control want to "stymie Donald Trump's Supreme Court Nominees" -- plural? "For weeks, Democrats have blocked Kavanaugh...." [MERRRRICK GARLLLLLLAAAANDDDD!!]

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, why aren’t you calling for a more complete FBI investigation into the alleged Chinese spy in your San Francisco office who served as your driver as well as a liaison to the Asian-American community in California? You say the FBI never informed you of any compromise of national security information, and that the staffer “never had access” to classified or sensitive information. But how could they know that without interviewing you and all the members of your staff? YOu have yet to call for an investigation into your own behavior, so obviously, you're guilty.

YOu don't have a copy editor, it seems.

I'm sorry to everyone who sits somewhere that Fox News is the default station. I didn't have the patience to sit through more than seconds of each clip.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:00 AM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

More Americans approve of Communism than Republicans disapprove of Kavanaugh.

And half of them post here! :p

—

How the Kavanaugh Protests Reached the National Stage (Emily Witt | New Yorker)

... Suddenly word came that voting had begun. Several of the activists began streaming the coverage on their phones, which produced a warped, echoing effect, because different phones streamed at slightly different paces. They stood silent as this haphazard speaker system delivered the news that Flake had voted with the Republican majority to recommend Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Senate, but that he thought it would be “proper” to reopen Kavanaugh’s F.B.I. background check before the full Senate vote. A couple of women began to cry. The phones played the “ayes” of the judiciary committee.

Jennifer Flynn Walker, from the Center for Popular Democracy, gave an announcement: “O.K., everybody, it’s been voted out of committee, eleven to ten,” she said. “They might have delayed it for a week, but we’re not sure.”

Flynn Walker listed the names of senators who had not announced how they would vote: on the Republican side, Flake, Murkowski, and Collins; on the Democratic side, Heidi Heitkamp, of North Dakota, and Joe Manchin, of West Virginia. “This afternoon, let’s just go make ourselves comfortable in their offices,” she said. “Look them in the eye, and make yourself heard.”

posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:02 AM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

I've been compulsively checking Avenatti's Twitter feed. Within the past hour he posted (without explanation, just some hashtags) a photograph of a TV studio in which Julie Swetnick being interviewed by somebody that commenters identify as NBC's Kate Snow. No word on when it will air.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:09 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

Top Fox Pick (in Opinion): "So, Democrats: What are you hiding from the FBI?" (Smug Manikin, Ben Shapiro)

Ben Shapiro is supposed to be the new William Buckley. The one guy all conservatives agree is the serious public intellectual of the conservative movement. The counter example they all cite when we say there's no honest conservatives or that conservatism is intellectually bankrupt. They always cite Ben Shapiro as the model of how liberals have them all wrong.

And his entire intellectual framework is nothing more than whataboutism.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:12 AM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: NAFTAv2 (please let call it that so Trump doesn't get its petty victory over the name...

Oh, I thought that "NAF2" would be the obvious choice.
posted by wenestvedt at 9:20 AM on October 1, 2018 [14 favorites]

Daniel Dale has been live-blogging/fact-checking Trump's NAFTA 1.1 Rose Garden press conference, and it's an ongoing shitshow. Here are some of his lies:

—Trump repeats an egregious lie: "Japan would never negotiate with the United States...they told the previous administration, we're not going to negotiate." Japan negotiated the whole TPP with the Obama administration.
—Trump repeats his lie about U.S. farmers selling to the European Union: "Our farmers aren't allowed to sell over there...most of them." The EU is the fifth-largest market for US agriculture, purchasing more than $11 billion last year.
—Trump repeats his false claim that U.S. officials had claimed 250,000 jobs would be created in the U.S. with the trade deal with South Korea. Obama had said KORUS would "support at least 70,000 American jobs."
—Trump repeats his regular false claim that Asian-American unemployment is at a record low. (Was in May, then went back up.) Trump repeats his regular false claim that the trade deficit was $800 billion last year. (It was $566 billion counting services trade too.)
—Trump promotes his U.S. Steel lie to "eight or nine plants." It started at "six plants," then went to "seven plants," then "eight plants," then Saturday "minimum of eight plants," and this was the first "nine."
—For the 23rd time, Trump falsely claims, "Almost every country in the world we have trade deficits. We lose with everybody." The U.S. had surpluses with more than half of all countries last year.

And his behavior gets only weirder and ruder:

—OMG this Trump History. "You know, tariffs ended in 1913. They then went to a different system in 1918, totally unrelated. And then in 1928, you had the Great Depression. For a lot of different reasons...and then in the 1930s, they said we'd better start charging some tariffs."
—Trump tries to stop a reporter from asking about him limiting the FBI investigation. He asks what this has to do with trade. He suggests that someone else ask a question. He doesn't usually do that - loves talking about multiple subjects at once.
—Told that reporters now want to ask about Kavanaugh, since he's taken many questions on trade, Trump says, "Don't do that. Don't do that. Excuse me? Do you have a question on trade. Don't do that. That's not nice."
—Trump has the microphone taken away from a reporter who tried to ask him about Kavanaugh.

Dale's a veteran of covering Rob Ford in Toronto, but Trump never ceases to astonish him.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:24 AM on October 1, 2018 [54 favorites]

wenestvedt: I thought that "NAF2" would be the obvious choice.

NAFTB.
posted by Too-Ticky at 9:26 AM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]

I am told by a high school teacher I know that having alumni grandparents don't generally qualify a student for "legacy" admissions status... So it can be perfectly true that Kavanaugh's grandfather went there, and also true that he was not admitted as a "legacy."

It's called a secondary legacy (grandparent, sibling, aunt, etc attended), it confers some advantage but not nearly as much as a primary legacy (parent attended). There was a 2011 study on the legacy effect at the top 30 schools, from the Chronicle of Higher Education: "Secondary legacy status at those top-tier colleges conferred an estimated advantage of 8.7 percentage points, while primary legacy gave a 51.6-point advantage." This summary quantifies this secondary legacy advantage as doubling your chances of admission while a primary legacy provides a 5 to 15x increase in your chances of admission.
posted by peeedro at 9:27 AM on October 1, 2018 [30 favorites]

I work in higher education/alumni relations at a school that is a peer of Yale. I can confirm that Yale legacy status is given to the children and grandchildren of Yale graduates.
posted by all about eevee at 9:28 AM on October 1, 2018 [59 favorites]

Ben Shapiro is supposed to be the new William Buckley.

dude replies to a maria shriver tweet with a Chappaquiddick "joke". he is not so much intellectually bankrupt as completely outside the economy.
posted by murphy slaw at 9:29 AM on October 1, 2018 [35 favorites]

Trump is just freakin' out, live on tv

Abby D Phillip, of CNN, via twitter: (!!) Trump implying he's caught a Dem senator in compromising conditions: "I happen to know some US senators. One who is on the other side, who's pretty aggressive. Ive seen that person in very very bad situations. Somewhat compromising."
10/1/18 12:21 pm

initial thoughts:
1. did he forget Al Franken isnt a Senator?
2. how much of a tell is doubling the use of very? probably indicates hes making it up out of whole cloth.
3. will anyone follow up?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:39 AM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

If Trump doesn't report this person's identity to the Senate and the FBI, he's complicit in the abuse. It's that simple.

2NAFT 2NAFTurious
posted by Faint of Butt at 9:43 AM on October 1, 2018 [40 favorites]

Isn’t Ben Shapiro also the little shit who got caught routinely plagiarizing his shitty little opinions when he was an even littler shit? Like he was the bright young college-aged conservative prodigy who got busted, lost his job, and then was apparently rehabilitated through the wingnut welfare network only to be repackaged as their “serious” “intellectual”?
posted by schadenfrau at 9:45 AM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

I was under the impression that Ben Shapiro was Milo Light.
posted by Selena777 at 9:47 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

What a fucking moron. He thinks he’s calling the left’s bluff. Women aren’t bluffing.

Yes, please tell us about any Democratic Senators who abuse women, you doddering cancer! We want to know so we can burn them right along with you.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:47 AM on October 1, 2018 [118 favorites]

This Rose Garden exchange is appalling, even by Trump's standards of disrespecting the press and denigrating women.

ABC's Evan McMurry:

Testy exchange with @CeciliaVega, in which Pres. Trump declines to answer question on Kavanaugh.

"She's shocked that I picked on her. She's like in a state of shock."

"I'm not, thank you," @CeciliaVega responds. https://abcn.ws/2NbbNIh

Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

It's impossible to tell where the border between his trolling and his cognitive impairment lies. (Growing loss of impulse-control and resultant inappropriate behavior is one sign of developing Alzheimers, for instance.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:49 AM on October 1, 2018 [53 favorites]

I feel like reporters are going to have to start negging him in their questions if they want to break through his sarcasm.

Perhaps other PUA strategies and techniques could work, too.

NAFTER
posted by rhizome at 9:53 AM on October 1, 2018 [16 favorites]

BoingBoing just posted a [fake] Wikipedia-looking page for a movie by the Coen Brothers about the whole Brett Kavanaugh kerfuffle:
https://boingboing.net/2018/10/01/beach-week-2018-a-film-by-t.html

From Boing Boing, the free encyclopedia

Beach Week is a 2018 black comedy film written, produced, edited, and directed by Joel and Ethan Coen.[1] The film stars George Clooney, Frances McDormand, Brad Pitt, Gary Oldman, Tilda Swinton, Steve Buscemi, Stephen Root, Josh Brolin and J. K. Simmons with William Zabka as Jeff Flake.[2] It was released in the United States on September 28, 2018, and in the United Kingdom on October 17, 2018.

Stephen Root plays Trump which is a thing I would like to watch, especially with the Coens at the wheel.
posted by wenestvedt at 9:55 AM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]

Yes, please tell us about any Democratic Senators who abuse women, you doddering cancer! We want to know so we can burn them right along with you.

Let's start with Tom Carper.
posted by dilaudid at 9:56 AM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Where did Trump get this info on Democratic senators? Putin? Yeah, definitely Putin.
posted by M-x shell at 10:01 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

None of the myriad ways Ben Shapiro is a shit makes me actually think William Buckley is somehow unworthy of the comparison. Peas in a pod, honestly.

Regarding Trump's implication about some Democratic senator, it's very possible he's inventing it out of whole cloth. But it also wouldn't be the first time he's considered an "enemy scandal" as something to keep (barely concealed, apparently) under his stupid red hat. He once made a cryptic tweet about Eric Schneiderman. When the awful revelation about him became public, Don Jr proudly quoted the tweet as an indicator of his father's prescience or whatever, never mind that dark implication that he knew and didn't tell anyone.

As I said back then, they regard keeping such things secret as praiseworthy clean politics because you're generously "letting the other guy off the hook" -- never mind the current and possible future victims. After all, in patriarchy, women aren't regarded as the other team, but as the ball.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:02 AM on October 1, 2018 [15 favorites]

Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

I know I keep coming back to this, but our Founding Fathers would have said that this is the moment where Cecilia Vega challenged President Trump to a duel upon the field of honor.

Because that shit was just unacceptably rude.
posted by mikelieman at 10:05 AM on October 1, 2018 [27 favorites]

President Donald Trump broke from the GOP refrain Monday, saying that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had “difficulty” with “drink” as a “young man,” an accusation that Kavanaugh and his supporters have vociferously denied in the last couple weeks.

keep helping, don. keep helping.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:06 AM on October 1, 2018 [94 favorites]

None of the myriad ways Ben Shapiro is a shit makes me actually think William Buckley is somehow unworthy of the comparison. Peas in a pod, honestly.

say what you will about bill buckley, but he at least occasionally rose to the level of sophistry.
posted by murphy slaw at 10:09 AM on October 1, 2018 [16 favorites]

President Donald Trump broke from the GOP refrain Monday, saying that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh had “difficulty” with “drink” as a “young man,” an accusation that Kavanaugh and his supporters have vociferously denied in the last couple weeks.

Which means they knew, because of course they did, about Kavanaugh's drinking even before he perjured himself before the Senate. Trump wouldn't have gotten that information from the non-conservative media and wouldn't have believed it if he had.
posted by Gelatin at 10:09 AM on October 1, 2018 [28 favorites]

Regarding Trump's implication about some Democratic senator, it's very possible he's inventing it out of whole cloth. But it also wouldn't be the first time he's considered an "enemy scandal" as something to keep (barely concealed, apparently) under his stupid red hat.

Eh, I'm sure you can't swing a pearl necklace in the Senate without hitting someone who's been in a compromising position. He's just floating bullshit, but if someone investigates they'll probably find something Trump can take credit for. This would be James O'Keefe's wheelhouse if he ever did any reporting.
posted by rhizome at 10:11 AM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

Trump admitting Kavanaugh's "difficulty with drink" seems significant, given that Trump's notably teetotal in reaction to his brother Fred's alcoholism. This may be a weakness he's finding it more difficult to overlook.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 10:12 AM on October 1, 2018 [10 favorites]

WaterAndPixels: NAFTAv2 (please let call it that so Trump doesn't get its petty victory over the name)

wenestvedt: Oh, I thought that "NAF2" would be the obvious choice.

Via Doktor Zed, I like Daniel Dale's take: Trump's NAFTA 1.1 -- it's not a new version, it's a tweak on the old one.

Back to the Supreme Court: Amid Kavanaugh Drama, Supreme Court Is Back In Session (NPR, Sept. 30, 2018)

NPR legal affairs correspondent Nina Totenberg: ... there are quite a few very important cases pending in front of the court that it has not yet decided to hear. And, interestingly, the court has already put off any decision on whether they will hear those cases. Those are the kinds of cases that are big five to four cases very often - whether it's illegal or unconstitutional to discriminate against gay people in employment, for instance. That's on the potential docket, but it has not yet been granted by the court.

What has been granted are a bunch of cases that are - could be very important, or they could be very tiny procedural steps one way or the other. This week, the most interesting one - to me, anyway - involves whether it's cruel and unusual punishment in violation of the Constitution to execute somebody who's committed a murder, but he doesn't remember it anymore. And it's an interesting case.

It's pretty vague, most likely because this is radio segment transcript that ran at 3 minutes 25 seconds, so there's not enough time for real summaries of cases. With that, does anyone know if there's a nice, clean list of upcoming cases with hearing dates, and a note on which have been punted until there's a 9th justice? Because if Kavanaugh is blocked and no one moves ahead before (if) Dems regain some control of this process and Trump throws a fit and refuses to suggest anyone, it would be interesting to know which cases are in limbo.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:13 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Okay so as per Trump Kavanaugh perjured himself w/r/t drinking. Are we done? Can we go home now?
posted by angrycat at 10:13 AM on October 1, 2018 [29 favorites]

ABC's Evan McMurry:
Testy exchange with @CeciliaVega, in which Pres. Trump declines to answer question on Kavanaugh.
"She's shocked that I picked on her. She's like in a state of shock."
"I'm not, thank you," @CeciliaVega responds. https://abcn.ws/2NbbNIh
Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

Thing is ... even while we know what this represents is mental illness and all ...

..... millions of people are observing and learning that this is an acceptable way to treat journalists, and more specifically, any and every woman. This is the new normal for many, many people.

We're moving backwards at warp speed. Even when Rump is outta here, it's going to take the rest of our lives just to get back to where we were in 2015.
posted by Dashy at 10:14 AM on October 1, 2018 [67 favorites]

Trump admitting Kavanaugh's "difficulty with drink" seems significant, given that Trump's notably teetotal in reaction to his brother Fred's alcoholism. This may be a weakness he's finding it more difficult to overlook.

This could be leveraged along with Trump's low impulse-control and tendency to parrot the last thing said to him live or on TV.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:16 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

it's going to take the rest of our lives just to get back to where we were in 2015

We will never get back to 2015 and we will never get back to when it felt normal. It is impossible to predict what is coming or how soon, but we have to have a vision for something different and better. Not "like it was before."
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:19 AM on October 1, 2018 [87 favorites]

Testy exchange with @CeciliaVega, in which Pres. Trump declines to answer question on Kavanaugh.
"She's shocked that I picked on her. She's like in a state of shock."
"I'm not, thank you," @CeciliaVega responds. https://abcn.ws/2NbbNIh
Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

Wouldn’t it make s great deal more sense if he said, “That’s okay. I know you’re not thanking. You never do.”? He is responding to her saying, “Thank you,” so it makes way more sense. It also goes along with his desire to be praised/thanked.
posted by flarbuse at 10:25 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Trade deal? DAFTA

We need a media strategy for bad-faith arguments and actors instead of exhaust research and discussion as if they are in good faith and logical and evebtually concluding that their propositions are "controversial" and " not supported" propoganda

Trump: " blah blah blah democrats"
Us: Pics or GTFO

Also the idea of moral liscence should be burned at the state: somebody on the orher team did a bad thing therefore we can do a bad-thing.... this argument should be considered a criminal confession.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 10:27 AM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

Here's a list of Granted and Noted Cases for the October 2018 term for the US Supreme Court.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:28 AM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Yeah, I would caution any promotion of MAGA-in-advance, I think the better future is more toward "continual improvement" (not in the Facebook way though) rather than "an agreeable status quo." History is full of well-meaning dipshits who were really going to fix it this time.

I feel like the prelapsarian project is a dead end here.
posted by rhizome at 10:29 AM on October 1, 2018

... they regard keeping such things secret as praiseworthy clean politics because you're generously "letting the other guy off the hook"

Huh? They keep them secret because when they are announced They no longer have blackmail material.

c.f.: Russian hacks of RNC.
posted by M-x shell at 10:30 AM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]

I don’t care that Kavanaugh drank underage or drank heavily in college. I care that he lied about it, repeatedly, under oath, in the context of accusations of attempted rape, while trying to deny hundreds of other more qualified people a lifetime appointment as one of the most powerful people in the country. That shouldn’t be a partisan issue, but it is, because one of the parties is dedicated to the appeasement of bigots.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:30 AM on October 1, 2018 [93 favorites]

Us: Pics or GTFO

If only the press had said "prove it", even *once*, to candidate Trump in 2016...sigh...
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:31 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

Some press conference video clips, via ThinkProgress:

Trump characterizes critics of his trade war as "babies"
WHOA: Trump mockingly criticizes a female reporter [Cecilia Vega, ABC News] who tries to ask him a question for not thinking -- "you never do," he tells her -- then refuses to answer her question about Kavanaugh
Trump shouts down @kaitlancollins as she tries to ask him a question about Kavanaugh!!! She asks it anyway. He won't answer.
Trump suggests Dem senators have done worse than Kavanaugh's two alleged sexual assaults: "I watch those senators on the Democrat side and I thought it was a disgrace. Partially because I know them. I know them too well. You know what? They are not angels."
Trump alludes to an unnamed Democratic senator who has a drinking problem, says he thinks it's "unfair" to scrutinize Kavanaugh's drinking and sexual misconduct when he was in high school

The way he says "they are not angels" in that clip is deeply disturbing.

Stephen Root plays Trump which is a thing I would like to watch

This is basically a description of Newsradio's "President" episode (1996), though the episode is much less racist than reality turned out to be.
posted by zachlipton at 10:32 AM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]

> We're moving backwards at warp speed. Even when Rump is outta here, it's going to take the rest of our lives just to get back to where we were in 2015.

There is no going back. The political constellation that we had in 2015 will never, ever, ever exist again. It was broken and we'll never put it back together. However, this is not necessarily a bad thing.

No, really, it's not necessarily a bad thing. And, like, I'm saying this as someone who thinks that 2015 was in fact the least bad that human civilization has been since we made the mistake of inventing agriculture.

Sometimes when we get all freaked out in this thread Frowner comes in to point out (way more eloquently than I'm about to) that we're in a moment of unprecedented political flux wherein titanic societal forces that had been frozen solid like glaciers since at least the 1940s are now shifting, and that we have no idea what the world is going to look like when those forces stabilize again. We might end up saddled with 40 years of fascism. Or we might finally smash the fucking patriarchy once and for all. We might end up with high-tech anarchosyndicalism or grinding grey corporate cyberpunk forever. We might end up with something even weirder than those things. One thing we know for sure, though, is that 2015 is never coming back. The old order, wherein everyone with power pretended to agree that liberal capitalism is the end of history, is gone, gone, gone.

We are in the most dynamic political moment since 1989 — we are in fact in large part dealing with the long slow aftermath of all the terrible blunders our idiot rulers made in 1989 — and it is awful and terrifying, because all the things we pretended were certain have been revealed as uncertain. They are not taking us "backwards at warp speed" because history never runs backwards, no matter how much conservatives or liberals or revolution-larping bolsheviks might want it to.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 10:37 AM on October 1, 2018 [106 favorites]

I found out the other day that Mara Wilson is Shapiro's cousin. I feel terrible for her every time I read his name.
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 10:38 AM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

We will never get back to 2015 and we will never get back to when it felt normal.

I’m sure as shit not going to forget they’re all actually Nazis underneath, no.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:39 AM on October 1, 2018 [59 favorites]

Back in April, Trump demanded an immediate withdrawl of troops from Syria. After military officials discussed that with him, he changed his demand to insist they be out in a matter of months.

A series of new statements by administration officials indicate a new goal, and it's deeply disturbing:
In Syria, Trump administration takes on new goal: Iranian retreat

The Trump administration has opened a new chapter in American involvement in Syria, vowing to remain until the civil war’s conclusion in a bid to halt Iran’s expansion across the Middle East.

The vision articulated last week by senior U.S. officials marks a dramatic reversal six months after President Trump said he would pull American troops out of Syria and end U.S. involvement in a conflict that has killed at least half a million people and confounded two administrations.

James Jeffrey, the State Department’s special representative for Syria, said the United States would maintain a presence in the country, possibly including an extended military mission, until Iran withdraws the soldiers and militia forces it commands. U.S. officials expect that possible outcome only after world powers broker a deal ending the war. “The president wants us in Syria until that and the other conditions are met,” Jeffrey told reporters Thursday, saying the U.S. withdrawal was also linked to achieving a lasting defeat of Islamic State militants.

Jeffrey spoke days after national security adviser John Bolton announced that the United States would not withdraw “as long as Iranian troops are outside Iranian borders,” for the first time tying the U.S. trajectory in Syria to challenging Iran.

posted by zachlipton at 10:41 AM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

A Supreme Court Case Could Liberate Trump to Pardon His Associates
- Natasha Bertrand, The Atlantic

Gamble v. United States isn’t related to the Russia investigation. But the outcome—which one senior Republican senator [Orrin Hatch] has tried to influence—could still have consequences for the probe.
…
A key Republican senator has quietly weighed in on an upcoming Supreme Court case that could have important consequences for Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.

The Utah lawmaker Orrin Hatch, who sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee, filed a 44-page amicus brief earlier this month in Gamble v. United States, a case that will consider whether the dual-sovereignty doctrine should be put to rest. The 150-year-old exception to the Fifth Amendment’s double-jeopardy clause allows state and federal courts to prosecute the same person for the same criminal offense. According to the brief he filed on September 11, Hatch believes the doctrine should be overturned. …

Within the context of the Mueller probe, legal observers have seen the dual-sovereignty doctrine as a check on President Donald Trump’s power: It could discourage him from trying to shut down the Mueller investigation or pardon anyone caught up in the probe, because the pardon wouldn’t be applied to state charges. Under settled law, if Trump were to pardon his former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, for example—he was convicted last month in federal court on eight counts of tax and bank fraud—both New York and Virginia state prosecutors could still charge him for any crimes that violated their respective laws. (Both states have a double-jeopardy law that bars secondary state prosecutions for committing “the same act,” but there are important exceptions, as the Fordham University School of Law professor Jed Shugerman has noted.) If the dual-sovereignty doctrine were tossed, as Hatch wants, then Trump’s pardon could theoretically protect Manafort from state action.

If Trump were to shut down the investigation or pardon his associates, “the escape hatch, then, is for cases to be farmed out or picked up by state-level attorneys general, who cannot be shut down by Trump and who generally—but with some existing limits—can charge state crimes even after a federal pardon,” explained Elie Honig, a former assistant U.S. attorney in New Jersey. “If Hatch gets his way, however, a federal pardon would essentially block a subsequent state-level prosecution.”

And the timing is not at all suspicious.
posted by ZeusHumms at 10:43 AM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]

Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

I know I keep coming back to this, but our Founding Fathers would have said that this is the moment where Cecilia Vega challenged President Trump to a duel upon the field of honor.

Because that shit was just unacceptably rude.

But it wouldn't be, it would be the moment Cecilia Vega's husband/brother/father/friend/protector challenged him to a duel on the field of honor. Women didn't get the opportunity to defend themselves, they needed a man to make that choice.

I get what you're saying but that system did not have direct recourse for women and it certainly didn't have recourse for people of color or virtually anyone marginalized along basically any axis. This system was built by and for the benefit of white men and that's something with which we need to reckon as we figure out how we got here and where we're going.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 10:50 AM on October 1, 2018 [29 favorites]

esty exchange with @CeciliaVega, in which Pres. Trump declines to answer question on Kavanaugh.
"She's shocked that I picked on her. She's like in a state of shock."
"I'm not, thank you," @CeciliaVega responds. https://abcn.ws/2NbbNIh
Trump retorts, “That’s okay, I know you’re not thinking. You never do.”

Wouldn’t it make s great deal more sense if he said, “That’s okay. I know you’re not thanking. You never do.”? He is responding to her saying, “Thank you,” so it makes way more sense. It also goes along with his desire to be praised/thanked.

So that reading was definitely wrong. I just listened to it. I will say this, though. She said, “I’m not, thank you” very quickly. I am quite certain he heard it as “I’m not thinking.” He had just said how shocked she was that he called on her. So then he hears that as “I’m not thinking” and makes his response.

This is no defense of what he said. I just like to understand exactly what people say, what they mean, and why they might have said it.
posted by flarbuse at 11:10 AM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

NYT, White House Tells F.B.I. to Interview Anyone Necessary for Kavanaugh Inquiry

The White House has authorized the F.B.I. to expand its abbreviated investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh by interviewing anyone it deems necessary as long the review is finished by the end of the week, two people briefed on the matter said on Monday.

The new directive came in the past 24 hours after a backlash from Democrats, who criticized the White House for limiting the scope of the bureau’s investigation into President Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court. The F.B.I. has already completed interviews with the four witnesses its agents were originally asked to talk to, the people said.

*sets timer for how long it takes until we learn the definition of "anyone necessary" has been twisted to all hell*
posted by zachlipton at 11:19 AM on October 1, 2018 [34 favorites]

A woman contradicted him, so he responded with insults.

Emphasis on "woman," because while he attacks male reporters, he never insults them. Because face-to-face with those of his own gender, he is a coward, plain and simple. That's testament to his belief that women are inferior. So it will be infinitely satisfying when it is women that take him down.
posted by martin q blank at 11:21 AM on October 1, 2018 [28 favorites]

That's testament to his belief that women are inferior. So it will be infinitely satisfying when it is women that take him down.

Sure, but it would be great if men could, like, help. Because we're exhausted.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:26 AM on October 1, 2018 [90 favorites]

WSJ: Mattis Trip to China Canceled—Pentagon had been working on possibility defense secretary would attend diplomatic and security dialogue in Beijing

The Pentagon never officially announced a trip to China, but had been working on the possibility that Mr. Mattis would attend talks in Beijing this month known as the diplomatic and security dialogue, U.S. officials said.

The U.S.-China diplomatic and security dialogue was held for the first time in June last year in Washington and was supposed to occur annually.

The trip is now off, a senior U.S. defense official said late Sunday. China couldn't make Mr. Mattis’s counterpart, Gen. Wei Fenghe, available for the planned meeting, souring the Pentagon on the idea, U.S. officials said. The cancellation was first reported by the New York Times.

This comes in the wake of Trump's rude comments at UN about China interfering in the midterm elections and his general bloviation about trade and tariffs, recent US military patrols in the South China Sea, and some undiplomatic and gratuitous remarks by an NCS aide at the Chinese Embassy in D.C. Since none of either the Journal's or the Times's sources are willing to be named, however, there's also an element of undermining Mattis.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:31 AM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

AP, Attorney: Ellison abuse claim unsubstantiated

An ex-girlfriend’s allegation that Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison once physically abused her could not be substantiated because she refused to provide video she said she had of the incident, an attorney hired to investigate the claims concluded in a draft report obtained Monday by The Associated Press.

The report was compiled by Susan Ellingstad, a lawyer hired by Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party to investigate the allegation against Ellison. The Democratic congressman has denied the allegations.
...
A draft report obtained by the AP notes Monahan’s shifting rationale for refusing to produce the video footage, including that it was lost, was on a USB drive in storage and that it would be too embarrassing and traumatic to release it. Ellingstad also wrote in her report that Monahan would not allow her to view the footage privately.

“An allegation standing alone is not necessarily sufficient to conclude that conduct occurred, particularly where the accusing party declines to produce supporting evidence that she herself asserts exists,” Ellingstad wrote. “She has thus repeatedly placed the existence of the video front and center to her allegations, but then has refused to disclose it.

I'd personally feel more comfortable with an investigation not run by the state party. Ellison has requested the House Ethics Committee investigate, which has its own issues, but seems like a reasonable step.
posted by zachlipton at 11:32 AM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]

...millions of people are observing and learning that this is an acceptable way to treat journalists, and more specifically, any and every woman. This is the new normal for many, many people.

One of the sadder things I recall reading about Berlusconi's impact on Italian life was the comparison of a pair of opinion surveys put to high school students that, in effect, asked them what they wanted to be when they grew up.

In the first, dating to the early 1990s — i.e, prior to Berlusconi's first term as Prime Minister — there really wasn't much observable difference between the career paths foreseen by young women and young men: they both wanted to be doctors and veterinarians, lawyers and designers. By the time of the second, after several years of Berlusconi in power, with his relentless influence on the national mores, girls had peeled away from boys. Now they wanted, mostly, to be supermodels and TV presenters, flight attendants and beauty-pageant winners.

The implications of this divergence for attitudinal modeling from on high are left as an exercise for the reader.
posted by adamgreenfield at 11:54 AM on October 1, 2018 [42 favorites]

Texas governor says 'bathroom bill' no longer on his agenda

Keep yanking the wheel towards progress folks, it's working. Thank you all for your hard work across the United States and the world. Our voices are being heard and efforts are having an effect.

This is *huge* y'all. Thank you. Thank you. Now let's vote the bastards out in November.
posted by nikaspark at 11:56 AM on October 1, 2018 [129 favorites]

I think it's important at this point to recognize and emphasize that the investigation was/is potentially meaningless only insofar as it looked like it wouldn't yield any real new information. Supposing something damning does come from it (somewhat likelier if this new mandate is genuine), a lot of conservatives will say "Aha! You liberals can't point to that because you already called the whole thing a sham!"

But this isn't a matter of Kavanaugh-resistant people having it both ways, because in addition to the difference between new information and the lack of it, there's confirmatory versus non-confirmatory evidence. Multiple Democratic senators pointed this out at the hearing -- more investigation could in principle help exculpate Kavanaugh. Hypothetically, they could find an alibi, or a serious hole in a survivor's sworn testimony, or even a "real" perpetrator. Of course everybody already knows how unlikely that is.

If they find something, they find something, whatever that may be. (I'm making the probably-not-justified assumption that nothing will be outright fabricated.) But if they find nothing, then there's nothing to conclude beyond what we've already heard.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:01 PM on October 1, 2018

Rebecca Solnit: Dear Christine Blasey Ford: you are a welcome earthquake. It was made at great personal cost, but your brave testimony has had incalculable benefits for the country at large
posted by homunculus at 12:08 PM on October 1, 2018 [74 favorites]

they couldn’t be sure any male nominee wouldn’t have what one called a “Kavanaugh problem.” "You nominate any man and how do you guarantee ... How do you vet for that?" said that source. "For an accusation that's 36 years old? You can't."

Well...of course you can. And presenting this as a problem is a signal about how widespread, and how accepted, sexual abuse is. They know it's a problem to "nominate any man" because they all know men who did this ...or are men who did this.

I've been reflecting sadly on the fact that, as many great men as I know, I don't think I would ever write a letter stating that there is no way they could do this to someone because I somehow see deep into their soul and know they couldn't. The truth is that I don't know that they couldn't or didn't. What I do know is that some of the most trusted men in society have abused the people who trusted them most. Just because I wasn't a victim, how could I be sure that somebody in my social circle never victimized anyone? I wouldn't go out that far on the limb, because I know how common it is.

It's impossible to tell where the border between his trolling and his cognitive impairment lies. (Growing loss of impulse-control and resultant inappropriate behavior is one sign of developing Alzheimers, for instance.)

I've said it before and I'll say it again: as comforting as it might be to think that Trump is insulting, evil, and incoherent for some biological reason, there's no evidence for it - and I am tired of providing it as an excuse. This is who he is, who he has always been, just more emboldened by the social sickness surrounding us.
posted by Miko at 12:46 PM on October 1, 2018 [52 favorites]

Mod note: We have been around and around the armchair-diagnosis merry-go-round and it is not going anywhere. Let's get off.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 12:59 PM on October 1, 2018 [22 favorites]

Rachel Mitchell says her Kavanaugh report is what a ‘reasonable prosecutor’ would say. It’s not. (Deanna Paul | WaPo)

A prosecutor would never rely on an affidavit to “refute” criminal accusations. A piece of paper — submitted for a hearing, when the individual believes he need not appear in person — cannot be cross-examined. It’s different from interviewing a person face to face, which is what any reasonable prosecutor would want to do.

She would examine the dates, places and people that the committee did not permit before Thursday’s hearing. Law enforcement would work with the accuser to track down every possible witness and piece of evidence to either underscore Ford’s narrative or give weight to Kavanaugh’s.

Mitchell was not brought in to do that.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 1:08 PM on October 1, 2018 [33 favorites]

This whole "prosecutable" thing is meant to distract you. It doesn't matter. If he used the n-word freely for black people, and the c-word for women, he also could not be prosecuted, but sure as hell wouldn't be Supreme Court material (even now). It is character at stake here, not law. Law is a separate issue altogether.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:24 PM on October 1, 2018 [81 favorites]

Rachel Mitchell is presenting herself as an expert witness for the defense. Expert witness has a formal legal definition. It is a person who testifies as to the facts of a case based on their experience and expertise that goes beyond a layman's understanding. In a real trial, no expert witness would be permitted to state their opinion in a trial without cross-examination by the other side.

And the very first question, as a matter of formality, is to ask the expert witness exactly how much they are being paid and who is paying for it. That is just routine.

Then, continuing the cross-examination, they would ask how she arrived at her conclusions, were the procedures used typical for reaching a conclusion, would she have an investigation of possible witnesses, would investigators take formal statements, etc.

A cross-examination would reveal that Mitchell's conclusions were completely contrary to her normal practice. There was no investigation as to the credibility of the complaint before issuing a conclusion.
posted by JackFlash at 1:30 PM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]

Lindsey Graham, 2016: My party has gone batshit crazy.
Lindsey Graham, 2017: I’m tired of media portraying Trump as a kook.
Lindsey Graham, 2018: If you don't like me working with President Trump to make the world a better place, I don't give a shit.

2 year metamorphosis from #nevertrump to full Pepe.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:33 PM on October 1, 2018 [77 favorites]

Rachel Mitchell’s Former Colleague Slams Her Kavanaugh Memo as “Absolutely Disingenuous”

A former colleague of Rachel Mitchell, the sex crimes prosecutor hired by Senate Republicans to question Christine Blasey Ford, blasted Mitchell for writing a memo casting doubt on Ford’s allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Matthew Long, a former sex crimes prosecutor who was trained by Mitchell in the Maricopa County, Arizona, attorney’s office, told Mother Jones the memo was “disingenuous” and inconsistent with Mitchell’s own practices as a prosecutor. “I’m very disappointed in my former boss and mentor,” Long said.
...
The memo rankled Long, beginning with how Mitchell framed it. “I find her willingness to author this absolutely disingenuous. She knows better,” Long said. “She should only be applying this standard when there’s an adequate investigation.” Rather than jump to conclusions, Mitchell should have laid out the steps that needed to be taken in order to gather enough information to make a determination about the case. “Mitchell doesn’t have sufficient information to even draw these conclusions,” he said.
...
Long, who now works partly as a defense attorney, said he is currently defending a former police officer charged with a 30-year-old crime by Mitchell’s office, which has given a broad time range in which the crime is alleged to have taken place. “They apparently have no problem with expanding the timeline when it comes to the people they charge, but she wants to apply a different standard to Kavanaugh,” he said.

posted by kirkaracha at 1:34 PM on October 1, 2018 [41 favorites]

Lindsey Graham, 2017: I’m tired of media portraying Trump as a kook.

Lindsey Graham, 2016: I think he's a kook. I think he's crazy. I think he's unfit for office.
posted by kirkaracha at 1:38 PM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

@yjtorbati (Reuters):

Final numbers just provided to me by @StateDept show that 51 Iraqi refugees with US affiliations (e.g. former military interpreters) were allowed into US in FY 2018.

FY 2017: 3051
FY2016: 5129
FY 2015: 7122

Some background, including the extent to which refusing to give visas to refugees who helped US troops hurts national security by discouraging others from working with us in combat zomes.
posted by zachlipton at 1:48 PM on October 1, 2018 [24 favorites]

*sets timer for how long it takes until we learn the definition of "anyone necessary" has been twisted to all hell*

It was twisted by the very next two paragraphs of that article (my emphasis):

Mr. Trump said on Monday that he favored a “comprehensive” F.B.I. investigation and had no problem if the bureau wanted to question Judge Kavanaugh or even a third accuser who was left off the initial witness list if she seemed credible. His only concerns he said, were that the investigation be wrapped up quickly and that it take direction from the Senate Republicans who will determine whether Judge Kavanaugh is confirmed.

“The F.B.I. should interview anybody that they want within reason, but you have to say within reason,” Mr. Trump told reporters in the Rose Garden after an event celebrating a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico. “But they should also be guided, and I’m being guided, by what the senators are looking for.”
[…]
“I want them to do a very comprehensive investigation, whatever that means, according to the senators and the Republicans and the Republican majority,” Mr. Trump said.

I mean, we already know that senate Republicans want cover more than they want an actual investigation. It's a bit of an open secret. Over to you, Jeff Flake:

Mr. Flake expressed concern on Monday that the inquiry not be limited and said he had pressed to make sure that happens. “It does no good to have an investigation that gives us more cover, for example,” he said in a public appearance in Boston. “We actually have to find out what we can find out.”

Flake saying it does them no good just to have more cover is precisely the sort of denial they'll rely on when they (and he) use it for cover.
posted by fedward at 1:54 PM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

If you don't like me working with President Trump to make the world a better place, I don't give a shit.

I know what we think around here, and correctly so, about the patsy-like futility of pointing out Republican hypocrisy. But let's be crystal-clear, shall we, that Graham must never again be allowed to play the "cheapening of the national discourse" card.

Sheeeeeit,I have better sense and consideration than to speak that way on national TV, and obscenity is more or less my native tongue.
posted by adamgreenfield at 2:00 PM on October 1, 2018 [16 favorites]

This video of women getting in Mitch McConnell’s face at an airport is incredible.
posted by mostly vowels at 2:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [73 favorites]

Re Gamble v. United States, the only way that case helps trump is if the supreme court reverses it. The court below upheld the separate sovereigns doctrine. If SCOTUS splits 4-4, that ruling will stand (as will earlier supreme court precedent upholding the doctrine).

So trump needs to have someone appointed before the court hears oral argument on the case, or the case is unlikely to help him. The court has set dates for oral argument on 22 cases between today and November 7, but has not yet set dates for oral argument on the remaining 20 cases, including Gamble.
posted by mabelstreet at 2:19 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Wait, the case everything is riding on, is Gamble vs US?
posted by inpHilltr8r at 2:22 PM on October 1, 2018 [52 favorites]

Of course it is
posted by mabelstreet at 2:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [45 favorites]

Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon we're in a moment of unprecedented political flux wherein titanic societal forces that had been frozen solid like glaciers since at least the 1940s are now shifting, and that we have no idea what the world is going to look like when those forces stabilize again

I think, as much as the sheer pants on the head bonkers fact of Trump's presidency, that's what has given these past two years such a manic, almost unreal or perhaps surreal, feel. Intellectually everyone knows that history doesn't stop and that the social/world order they were born into isn't guaranteed to last for long.

But we have had, as you noted, a fairly stable world order since 1945. The Pax Americana wasn't exactly great for a lot of people, but it did provide a degree of stability and a lack of world wars. And it was crumbling before Trump came to office. The combination of dollar and American military was weakening and other players on the world stage were looking for an expanded role in world affairs.

That said, Trump is taking a wrecking ball to a process that was winding down to an uncertain future, and has made that future a lot more uncertain. And made it clear that as the tide of Fascism rises again worldwide, America will not be a bulwark against it. Instead and unlike in the 1940's, we Americans will be busy fighting our own Fascist uprising and seeing if it breaks into full blown civil war or can be kept within the bounds of politics.

My parents were fairly sure that I'd grow up in a world managed by the Pax Americana. It wasn't really a world they liked much, but it was something they knew and I imagine it gave them at least a degree of stability even if it wasn't really great stability.

My son will grow up in a world transitioning to a post-American future, and I have no idea whether he will be living a fairly peaceful life, or die in riots, civil wars, and maybe even atomic devastation. And that's really unsettling to me.

We're at the end of an era, and it remains to be seen what the next era will be like. I do know that we'll have to struggle to get a good, or even mildly tolerable, future out of the change. The forces of wealth, bigotry, and authoritarianism are working overtime these days, and winning quite a few of the contests. So far that's been sub-world war level, and often not war at all. Trump, Duterte, Orbán, and the rest all won elections rather than civil wars. And that's kind of better I suppose.

Adding to that is the end of capitalism as we transition to a post-automation society and economy, and that'd be a huge world shift even without the addition of the fall of the Pax Americana and the threatened rise of a new Fascist order.

It's going to be a lot of work ahead, that's about all anyone can say with any degree of certainty.
posted by sotonohito at 2:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [57 favorites]

Ben Shapiro is supposed to be the new William Buckley.

dude replies to a maria shriver tweet with a Chappaquiddick "joke". he is not so much intellectually bankrupt as completely outside the economy.

posted by murphy slaw at 9:29 AM on October 1 [27 favorites −] [!]

To be bankrupt, one has to have some bank to 'rupt. I don't believe Ben ever did.
posted by Mental Wimp at 2:28 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Today's Democracy Now! interviewed Ana María Archila, one of the people who confronted Senator Flake in the elevator mentioned in the OP. (interview starts at around 23:20 in the full show .mp4, alt link, .torrent—Of course, most of the rest of the episode also relates to the Kavanaugh nomination, finishing up with an interview with Kimberlé Crenshaw, a law professor at UCLA and Columbia and founder of the African American Policy Forum, who was a consultant to Anita Hill's legal team.)
posted by XMLicious at 2:30 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

Lindsey Graham, 2017: I’m tired of media portraying Trump as a kook.

Lindsey Graham, 2016: I think he's a kook. I think he's crazy. I think he's unfit for office.

Lindsey Graham, always: "The truth is, I have no discernible, firm character, moral or otherwise. For whatever reasons, I'm clearly an amoral opportunist, looking for the best outcomes for myself and my power-tribe." [fake, but only the actual text; the sub-text has been clear for years.]

The thing about having a mind open and empathic enough to care about other people, but especially one that seeks to learn about, understand and know people different from oneself, is that these wonderful qualities are indiscriminate: the way that you see people is the way that you see all people. This is great when proceeding from an empathic, compassionate perspective, but I think is also a source of fundamental miscalculations and mistakes in judgment that Democrats (and politically liberal voters) consistently make. Open-mindedness proceeds from (or leads one to) a framing about people that is very egalitarian, but it's important to understand that some people really are nothing like you, don't want any of the good things for you, or other people, or the world, that you do, and do not strive for any sort of internal consistency about it.

I haven't seen Lindsey Graham say anything in his Senatorial service inconsistent with his character and values as displayed by his actions. I was not surprised at what he said about Trump in 2016, nor am I surprised that he says what he does now--he has always been venal, selfish, angry and power-hungry. Graham has done nothing in his public service work but enrich the few and impoverish the rest of us, and will not behave any differently in any circumstance.
posted by LooseFilter at 2:34 PM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

Ben Shapiro’s whole claim to fame was writing about how post-secondary education is the great commie pinko lesbian satan...when he was seventeen. Have grapes ever been so sour?
posted by Sys Rq at 2:37 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Good afternoon, I'm petebest with your MegaThread Cake Report. The earlier release of a general chocolate advisory due to the additional FBI scrutiny of O'Kavanaugh was elevated by a call for cookies this afternoon following reports of an expanded scope for said inquiry.

Muellercake futures rose on this 499th day without significant leaks. Local bakeries are awaiting the latest election report from Chrysostom, and The Office of Pastry Throwdowns issued a reminder to Americans to beware of banana pants on heads.

More cake, as events warrant. And now this.

(Seriously though, times are insidiously difficult for this demographic: please take care of you.)
posted by petebest at 2:39 PM on October 1, 2018 [56 favorites]

Kimberlé Crenshaw, a law professor at UCLA and Columbia and founder of the African American Policy Forum, who was a consultant to Anita Hill's legal team.

In addition to her many credentials, Kimberlé Crenshaw is also notable for inventing the term "intersectionality" and writing the pioneering works on that subject.
posted by Errant at 2:54 PM on October 1, 2018 [52 favorites]

MSNBC is reporting that NBC has obtained text messages sent directly by Kavanaugh pressuring friends to refute Debbie Ramirez' claims.
posted by Justinian at 2:56 PM on October 1, 2018 [74 favorites]

And here's that story. NBC News, Heidi Przybyla and Leigh Ann Caldwell, Mutual friend of Ramirez and Kavanaugh anxious to come forward with evidence: A former classmate of the Supreme Court nominee has reached out to the FBI but hasn't received a response.

The texts between Berchem and Karen Yarasavage, both friends of Kavanaugh, suggest that the nominee was personally talking with former classmates about Ramirez’s story in advance of the New Yorker article that made her allegation public. In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.

The texts also demonstrate that Kavanaugh and Ramirez were more socially connected than previously understood and that Ramirez was uncomfortable around Kavanaugh when they saw each other at a wedding 10 years after they graduated. Berchem's efforts also show that some potential witnesses have been unable to get important information through to the FBI.
...
In a series of texts prior to the publication of the New Yorker story, Yarasavage wrote that she had been in contact with “Brett's guy,” and also with “Brett,” who wanted her to go on the record to refute Ramirez. According to Berchem, Yarasavage also told her friend that she turned over a copy of the wedding party photo to Kavanaugh, writing in a text message: “I had to send it to Brett’s team too.”

Bob Bauer, former White House counsel for President Barack Obama, said "It would be surprising, and it would certainly be highly imprudent, if at any point Judge Kavanaugh directly contacted an individual believed to have information about allegations like this. A nominee would normally have been counseled to leave to his legal and nominations team the job of following up on any questions arising from press reports or otherwise, and doing so appropriately."
...
The wedding took place 10 years after Ramirez and Kavanaugh graduated. According to the information Berchem provided, Ramirez tried to avoid Kavanaugh at that wedding of their two friends, Yarasavage and Kevin Genda.

In particular, this seems extremely WTF-worthy:

Further, the texts show Kavanaugh may need to be questioned about how far back he anticipated Ramirez would air allegations against him. Berchem says, in her memo, that Kavanaugh “and/or” his friends “may have initiated an anticipatory narrative” as early as July to “conceal or discredit” Ramirez.

Kavanaugh told the Senate Judiciary Committee under oath that the first time he heard of his former Yale classmate Deborah Ramirez’s allegation that he exposed himself to her in college was in a Sept. 23 article in The New Yorker.

If Kavanaugh was personally involved in contacting former classmates and/or this started back in July, that puts everything in a new light.
posted by zachlipton at 2:57 PM on October 1, 2018 [130 favorites]

From CNN: New Jersey Senate: Incumbent Democrat Menendez appears vulnerable in new poll.

Menendez (D) 45%, Hugin (R) 43%.

Wouldn't it be funny if Texas went blue and New Jersey went red? And by funny I mean not funny.
posted by Justinian at 2:59 PM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]

Graham has done nothing in his public service work but enrich the few and impoverish the rest of us, and will not behave any differently in any circumstance.

In addition, last year it came to light that Graham's caught up in the dark money web that ties the GOP to the Russian oligarchy (Dallas News). From 2015 to 2016, Russian-born GOP megadonor Len Blavatnik funnelled $6.35 million into GOP PACs benefitting the campaigns of top Republican senators. Graham's affiliate "Security Through Strength" PAC received $800,000 from Blavatnik via his multinational industrial group Access Industries. No wonder he started sucking up to Trump and changing his tune on Mueller once the Special Counsel started interviewing oligarchs.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:01 PM on October 1, 2018 [14 favorites]

Ben Shapiro’s whole claim to fame was writing about how post-secondary education is the great commie pinko lesbian satan...when he was seventeen. Have grapes ever been so sour?

Remember that William F. Buckley, Jr. got his start defending Joe McCarthy.
posted by clawsoon at 3:03 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

We're at the end of an era, and it remains to be seen what the next era will be like. I do know that we'll have to struggle to get a good, or even mildly tolerable, future out of the change. The forces of wealth, bigotry, and authoritarianism are working overtime these days, and winning quite a few of the contests.

The most horrific experiments in authoritarianism are happening in Xinjiang right now, if you want to get a sense of what we all need to be prepared to fight against.
posted by clawsoon at 3:07 PM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

Menendez (D) 45%, Hugin (R) 43%.

Patrick Murray (Monmouth polling) has some thoughts on this poll: it seems to be assuming astonishing turnout, and the unweighted sample doesn't really match what would be expected from a history of conducting polls in NJ.

The 538 model keeps adjusting these polls to be substantially better for Democrats, but I can't say that's particularly helping me sooth my current panic level.
posted by zachlipton at 3:07 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

Thanks for that Monmouth link zach.

On a different note, I have seen the following study making the rounds on twitter. On the one hand it validates my pre-existing bias so that's a warning sign. On the other hand that doesn't mean it's wrong.

Attitudes Toward Presidential Candidates in the 2012 and 2016 American Elections.

The last line of the abstract: "In general, these results suggest that the 2016 U.S. presidential election had less to do with party affiliation, income, or education and more to do with basic cognitive ability."
posted by Justinian at 3:12 PM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]

if you want to get a sense of what we all need to be prepared to fight against.

Other than what we’re currently fighting against, I guess you mean. And at that, you’re not wrong. The twenty-first century’s bag of unpleasant tricks has plenty of room in it for Xi’s flavor of fascism, Duterte’s, Orban’s and Trump’s.
posted by adamgreenfield at 3:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Ben Shapiro’s whole claim to fame was writing about how post-secondary education is the great commie pinko lesbian satan...when he was seventeen. Have grapes ever been so sour?

dude replies to a maria shriver tweet with a Chappaquiddick "joke".

Chappaquiddick was 49 years ago.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

the great commie pinko lesbian satan

Hello new sockpuppet account name.
posted by delfin at 3:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [38 favorites]

In one message, Yarasavage said Kavanaugh asked her to go on the record in his defense. Two other messages show communication between Kavanaugh's team and former classmates in advance of the story.

This sounds very much like the witness tampering that Paul Manafort was convicted/plead guilty to. With rational actors, they would have already nominated someone without the baggage, but here in the worst possible timeline, the GOP's official stance is, "Fuck you, you can't stop us."
posted by mikelieman at 3:15 PM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

I mean, yeah it's similar... but unlike a criminal trial it's not a crime to tamper with witnesses in a job interview. It just means you shouldn't get the job.
posted by Justinian at 3:17 PM on October 1, 2018 [21 favorites]

If Kavanaugh was personally involved in contacting former classmates and/or this started back in July, that puts everything in a new light.

And the Republican spin machine will dutifully churn out its "Light? There's not more light on in here. Must be your eyes, and hoo boy look at the time, we need to get this witch hunt wrapped up by our imaginary deadline " talking points in lockstep.
posted by Rykey at 3:19 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

my god trump sounds like Joe Pesci in Goodfellas in today's presser
posted by mazola at 3:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

In other news...

Paul Manafort met Monday with special counsel Robert Mueller’s office as part of his cooperation agreement in the special counsel’s investigation into Russia interference in the 2016 presidential election.

The sit-down at the special counsel’s downtown Washington D.C. office stems from Manafort’s guilty plea last month, which requires the former Trump campaign chairman to cooperate “fully, truthfully, completely, and forthrightly…in any and all matters as to which the government deems the cooperation relevant.”

posted by chris24 at 3:40 PM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]

Via NBC, a photo of Kavanaugh with Ramirez, who he had denied ever knowing during the hearing.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:41 PM on October 1, 2018 [47 favorites]

I mean, yeah it's similar... but unlike a criminal trial it's not a crime to tamper with witnesses in a job interview. It just means you shouldn't get the job.

The article buries the lede. The texts, especially the stuff about "Brett" personally reaching out, strongly indicate that Kavanugh lied his smug, punchable face off when he specifically claimed under oath he'd never heard of Ramirez's allegations before the New Yorker article.

I am, for the record, also choking a little at the idea of not just a fellow lawyer and Yalie, but the fucking head of the corporate practice group at one of the biggest, most fancy fucking pants law firms in the entire fucking world basically turning Kavanaugh and her fellow Yalies in, because they weren't stepping up to do the right thing. Look at the list of transactions she's run. Look at those professional awards.

SHE HAD RELEVANT INFO. SO SHE WROTE A FUCKING MEMO. AND SHE-MAILED IT TO THE FBI. AND THEN WHEN SHE DIDN'T HEAR BACK IN 24 HOURS, SHE FOLLOWED UP WITH SCREENSHOTS.

That's some grade A using your lawyer-ly asshole skills for good, and I love it, along with her bland little statement, very, very much.
posted by joyceanmachine at 3:41 PM on October 1, 2018 [153 favorites]

Not to mention that she tried another path first: (emphasis mine)

“We heard from Kerry late on Thursday and submitted her summary to the Judiciary Committee early Friday,” a spokeswoman for Blumenthal said in a statement to NBC News. “After we were made to jump through several hoops that delayed our moving forward, it became clear that the majority Committee staff had not turned this summary over to the FBI and, in fact, had no intention of turning it over to the FBI. With our assistance, Kerry submitted her summary to the FBI herself.”

The hell you say.
posted by delfin at 3:50 PM on October 1, 2018 [49 favorites]

It's a huge firm, but joyceanmachine's Wikipedia link also shows that another lawyer at Berchem's firm is representing Manafort, which is fun.
posted by ITheCosmos at 3:50 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

@Rust Moranis -- did Kavanaugh deny knowing Ramirez during the hearing? WaPo has it as:

Kavanaugh acknowledged that he knew Ramirez in college but flatly denied the allegation of sexual misconduct. “That did not happen,” he said. He said he had had no sexual or romantic encounters with Ramirez and did not recall being at the gathering she described, where a small group of students sat in a circle playing a drinking game.

Would be super interested if/where Kavanaugh denied knowing Ramirez, obviously given that photo.
posted by cybertaur1 at 4:00 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

Berchem hired a lawyer on Sunday to help her get her information into the right hands. She has twice sent her memo to the FBI and has yet to hear a response, according to her lawyer, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Berchem's so pissed off, her lawyer is the one maintaining anonymity.

Berchem tweet, March 7, 2016: It is never too early to ask yourself: what is your legacy? #diversity #corpgov #empower #lifeisshort
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:01 PM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

Would be super interested if/where Kavanaugh denied knowing Ramirez, obviously given that photo.

My understanding is the issue isn't that Kavanaugh denied knowing Ramirez but rather that he said he learned of her allegations from the New Yorker article, which was published after the texts in question.
posted by Justinian at 4:03 PM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

Speak of the devil, Heidi Przybyla is live on MSNBC confirming that this is the issue. She is one of the two on the byline of the text message article stuff.
posted by Justinian at 4:04 PM on October 1, 2018 [1 favorite]

Chappaquiddick was 49 years ago.

technically true but a very roundabout way of saying that Maria Shriver has nothing to do with Mary Jo Kopechne, because she is not Ted Kennedy and is not answerable for any of the really disgusting or criminal things her uncle did. she isn't responsible for anything done by any Kennedy men, because she's not them. how long ago they did those things makes no difference to that.

"it was 49 years ago" isn't all that different from "it was 36 years ago." the reason to let it go isn't because it was a long time ago, it's because Ted's dead. that's all.
posted by queenofbithynia at 4:04 PM on October 1, 2018 [31 favorites]

Would be super interested if/where Kavanaugh denied knowing Ramirez, obviously given that photo.

I just heard it somewhere and assumed it to be true because so far my worst suspicions regarding him had always proved accurate. Guess I was wrong. Sorry Brett!
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:06 PM on October 1, 2018

On a whim I looked up The Code of Conduct for U.S. Judges:

Canon 1: A Judge Should Uphold the Integrity and Independence of the Judiciary
Canon 2: A Judge Should Avoid Impropriety and the Appearance of Impropriety in All Activities
[...]
Canon 2A. An appearance of impropriety occurs when reasonable minds, with knowledge of all the relevant circumstances disclosed by a reasonable inquiry, would conclude that the judge’s honesty, integrity, impartiality, temperament, or fitness to serve as a judge is impaired.

So that's a good drum to bang - the norms he's violating are actually written in black-and-white this time. The "character and temperament" arguments are, IMO, the strongest arguments at this point. In part because you don't sound partisan when you make them.

Something that's amazing in retrospect: you couldn't make that argument a few weeks ago. I mean, people were writing about what a good soccer dad he was. Ford's accomplished something very, very big, in getting them to drop the mask. Nobody would have dug up his high school yearbook. No one would have brought up his fucking calendars.

(speaking of masks, my favorite scalding hot take is Matt Yglesias saying that Kavanaugh is perfect for the supreme court because it's always been a partisan actor and maybe now we can stop pretending it isn't)
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 4:06 PM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]

Can we change the Democratic narrative from "Vote No on Kavanaugh" to "Arrest and disbar Kavanaugh for the crime of perjury" yet?
posted by mmoncur at 4:07 PM on October 1, 2018 [23 favorites]

I've gone into the US Code to look up witness tampering since the "job interview" thing is an analogy rather than a fact. It isn't a crime to tamper with a witness in a job interview. However, this isn't just a job interview. It is, I think, properly considered an "official proceeding." Here is 18 USC 1512 - Tampering with a witness, victim, or an informant.

(b) Whoever knowingly uses intimidation, threatens, or corruptly persuades another person, or attempts to do so, or engages in misleading conduct toward another person, with intent to—
(1) influence, delay, or prevent the testimony of any person in an official proceeding;
(2) cause or induce any person to—
(A) withhold testimony, or withhold a record, document, or other object, from an official proceeding

So, yeah, the job interview analogy maybe breaks down here. If Kavanaugh had corrupt intent (difficult but not impossible to prove) then witness tampering might apply since his confirmation before the Senate is an "official proceeding" even if not a trial or a job interview.
posted by Justinian at 4:11 PM on October 1, 2018 [29 favorites]

@NBCPolitics, 1:52 PM - 1 Oct 2018

JUST IN: A senior US official tells @NBCNews that Kavanaugh’s high school friend Mark Judge has been interviewed by the FBI. - @PeterAlexander

posted by kirkaracha at 4:11 PM on October 1, 2018 [28 favorites]

nb - consult an attorney rather than metafilter if considering tampering with any witnesses before Senate testimony.
posted by Justinian at 4:12 PM on October 1, 2018 [34 favorites]

Does anyone know for sure or know how find out? I am going to be mad at Slate and Newsweek and the Intercept for making this a thing if it's not a thing. After all, he's lied about so much OTHER stuff.

posted by OnceUponATime at 9:00 AM on October 1 [5 favorites +] [!]

Kavanaugh didn't say "I wasn't a legacy," he said, "I had no connections." That's not plausible if his grandfather attended.
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:16 PM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

NYT: Kavanaugh Was Questioned by Police After Bar Fight in 1985
posted by guiseroom at 4:19 PM on October 1, 2018 [26 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh’s Fox News Interview Is Now Testimony Under Oath

...that Fox News interview that Kavanaugh conducted with Martha MacCallum has been entered into evidence as testimony by Kavanaugh — under “penalty of felony,” as the judge might put it. This means that the credibility-straining claims Kavanaugh made on the network could now place him in legal jeopardy.

In the Judiciary Committee transcript, the Fox News interview is placed retroactively under oath. A staffer, whose name is redacted, asks Kavanaugh: “Everything that you said on that interview, do you — do you affirm that today? Do you adopt that as your testimony today?” Kavanaugh replies, “Yes.” The SCOTUS nominee also responds in the affirmative when the questioner asks if Kavanaugh understands that entering his answers to Fox News as testimony means that he is “subject to felony prosecution if you’re lying.”

posted by kirkaracha at 4:19 PM on October 1, 2018 [64 favorites]

Emily Bazelon, Ben Protess, NYT: Kavanaugh Was Questioned by Police After Bar Fight in 1985

As an undergraduate student at Yale, Brett M. Kavanaugh was involved in an altercation at a local bar during which he was accused of throwing ice on another patron, according to a police report.

“On one of the last occasions I purposely socialized with Brett, I witnessed him respond to a semi-hostile remark, not by defusing the situation, but by throwing his beer in the man’s face,” Mr. Ludington said in the statement. Mr. Ludington, a college professor at North Carolina State, said he came forward because he believed Judge Kavanaugh had mischaracterized the extent of his drinking at Yale.

Mr. Ludington said that he had been in touch with the F.B.I.

He said that the altercation happened after a UB40 concert, when he and a group of people went to Demery’s and were drinking pints. At one point, they were sitting near a man who, they thought, resembled Ali Campbell, the lead singer of UB40.

“We’re trying to figure out if it’s him,” he said.

When the man noticed Mr. Ludington, Mr. Kavanaugh and the others looking at him, he objected and aggressively asked them to stop, Mr. Ludington said.

It was then, he said, that Mr. Kavanaugh “threw his beer at the guy.”

The kicker, of course, is the final paragraph:

Several Yale classmates, including a former roommate and Mr. Ludington, have described Judge Kavanaugh as sometimes aggressive when he was drinking.

posted by cybertaur1 at 4:19 PM on October 1, 2018 [30 favorites]

Mr. Dudley denied the accusation, according to the report. For his part, speaking to the officers, Mr. Kavanaugh did not want “to say if he threw the ice or not,” the police report said.

His approach to answering questions does not appear to have evolved significantly since 1985.
posted by zachlipton at 4:26 PM on October 1, 2018 [28 favorites]

Would be super interested if/where Kavanaugh denied knowing Ramirez, obviously given that photo.

In his September 25, 2018 interview with the Senate Judiciary Committee, he said he and Ramirez were at a wedding around 1997:

■ Do you know Deborah Ramirez?
Judge Kavanaugh. I do.
■When did you meet her?
Judge Kavanaugh. I knew her in college.
■ And when did you last talk to her?
Judge Kavanaugh. Many, many years ago.
■ Would you say that was post college?
Judge Kavanaugh. I'm pretty sure we were at a wedding together. ■ and ■ wedding, which I believe was in 1997 in the Baltimore area. And I don't think I've seen her since then.

I believe the photo is from the rehearsal dinner for the same wedding.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

There seems to be another discrepancy: beer (which is the only intoxicant that the judge imbibes, as all America knows) is not typically served iced.
posted by Scram at 4:30 PM on October 1, 2018 [31 favorites]

Hmm. This is being played as "threw some ice at the guy" which kind of sounds like wacky hijinks, but according to the NYT story he also hit the guy with a glass, which required treatment at a hospital. It doesn't sound like it was a very serious injury, but still. That's assault.

I want to know if Kavanaugh still drinks. I assume he does. Have there been any more-recent incidents of him being violent while wasted?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:47 PM on October 1, 2018 [14 favorites]

It doesn't sound like it was a very serious injury, but still. That's assault.

one imagines that the police in new haven reserve the assault charges for the townies.
posted by murphy slaw at 4:52 PM on October 1, 2018 [18 favorites]

Unless we're looking at different NYT stories it was Chris Dudley who hit the same ice-throwing-target guy with a glass. Dudley is also someone who has disputed reports that [Kavanaugh] drank excessively.
posted by XMLicious at 4:52 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

I want to know if Kavanaugh still drinks. I assume he does. Have there been any more-recent incidents of him being violent while wasted?

Other than his testimony in front of the senate?

He was clearly drunk, IMO. He was belligerent, forgot facts, forgot what he was talking about, obfuscated, prevaricated, evidenced emotions inappropriate to the situation, pretended to be answering questions when he's lost track of what was being talked about, lost track of the fact that he had said the word 'beer' eleventy seven times and that would be weird to the room, aggressively punched back at questioners in a professional environment out of nowhere......It's a missed opportunity that nobody asked him, have you had a drink today? Because that dude was drunk, and aggressively (also, somehow 'tediously') so. I'm sure it was presented as 'Jeez, I need a drink before this' but I think it was more like four.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 4:56 PM on October 1, 2018 [35 favorites]

I like the part where Brett held the guy in a bear hug while Brett's buddy clocked the guy in the head with a beer glass. Bros got to stick together, eh?

Once again we have Brett and his loyal wingman.
posted by JackFlash at 5:00 PM on October 1, 2018 [9 favorites]

[Trigger warning] In Julie Swetnick's statement, she says, "I have a firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their 'turn' with a girl inside the room. Those boys included Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh."

Kavanaugh has denied participating in a gang rape or being in "a threesome or more than a threesome." That doesn't contradict Swetnick's statement; the boy and girl could have been the only people in the room.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:07 PM on October 1, 2018 [19 favorites]

Rachel Mitchell equals the new Katherine Harris.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:10 PM on October 1, 2018

Running scared in Va-07, Dave Brat has backed out of his only televised debate with Democratic challenger Abigail Spanberger. Brat has been hiding from his constituents since the beginning of 2017 when he stopped doing town halls because, in his words, "women are in my grill no matter where I go."
posted by peeedro at 5:12 PM on October 1, 2018 [50 favorites]

I want to know if Kavanaugh still drinks. I assume he does.

In last Thursday's testimony he affirmed that he "still likes beer," and this soft-focus WaPo piece from back in July confirms that he's a "longstanding patron" of the Chevy Chase Lounge with Budweiser as his usual order. Doesn't seem to have started any fights there, and even binge-drinkers can become moderate or light drinkers with the passage of time, but certainly his inability during testimony to even offer a reply (much less a polite one) to the question of "how many beers is 'too many'?" doesn't inspire much confidence.

Other than his testimony in front of the senate?
He was clearly drunk, IMO.

The timeline would make this surprising; I believe he was being prepped all morning, or at the very least was not alone. Nothing suggests to me that Kavanaugh needs drink to become an arrogant, aggressive, prevaricating, chauvinistic boor. He already is one. Assume he was sober -- and then consider how much more belligerent he must be when drunk.
posted by halation at 5:13 PM on October 1, 2018 [49 favorites]

Man, Kavanaugh is lies all the way down. What a scumbag. And the arrogance suggests that he's living in a world where he has no accountability - how dare they ask me questions?
posted by bluesky43 at 5:14 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

"I have a firm recollection of seeing boys lined up outside rooms at many of these parties waiting for their 'turn' with a girl inside the room. Those boys included Mark Judge and Brett Kavanaugh."


She doesn't claim she knows they went into the room and raped the girl. All she says is that she saw them in the line.

I doubt we'll ever get direct evidence of a gang rape, unless Judge himself confesses to it...
posted by suelac at 5:15 PM on October 1, 2018

From the NBC piece on Berchem:

“We heard from Kerry late on Thursday and submitted her summary to the Judiciary Committee early Friday,” a spokeswoman for Blumenthal said in a statement to NBC News. “After we were made to jump through several hoops that delayed our moving forward, it became clear that the majority Committee staff had not turned this summary over to the FBI and, in fact, had no intention of turning it over to the FBI. With our assistance, Kerry submitted her summary to the FBI herself.”

The Republicans on the Judiciary are also lies all the way down.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:17 PM on October 1, 2018 [20 favorites]

Bad poll out in ND-SEN, with Cramer leading Heitkamp 51-41 and a large plurality of voters naming the Kavanaugh nomination their top issue, with voters supporting him 60-27.

Caveats: though commissioned by a state NBC affiliate, the pollster (Strategic Research Associates) is not graded on FiveThirtyEight. Also, Heitkamp was likewise down by a 10-point margin in an October poll back in her 2012 race, and she ended up narrowly winning in a weakly Democratic year.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:20 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

NYT: Kavanaugh Was Questioned by Police After Bar Fight in 1985

posted by guiseroom at 4:19 PM on October 1 [10 favorites +] [!]

It's becoming apparent that all the people vouching for Kavanaugh NOT being a heavy drinker are people he drank heavily with.
posted by Mental Wimp at 5:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [47 favorites]

I believe he was being prepped all morning, or at the very least was not alone.

If you've ever known an alcoholic (and I'm not asserting that he's an alcoholic, though I think he might be) this is no barrier to getting drunk.
posted by Miko at 5:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [27 favorites]

Maybe I led a sheltered damn teenage existence, but isn't your presence at such a party as described (as a "boy", anyway) implying tacit approval? "Yeah, it was a killer party, dude--aside from the usual rapey stuff, gosh, not my gig" doesn't seem all that compelling from any (male) attendee, especially regular attendees, but what the fuck do I know.

If you're a boy and you know (and especially if you go)--you're part of it.
posted by maxwelton at 5:24 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Obama Endorses More Democratic Midterm Candidates - From Congress To State Houses. Miles Parks, NPR

@BarackObama

Today, I’m proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren’t just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote:

He tweeted out a list of over 260 candidates in federal and state elections, in addition to 40 candidates mentioned in August, focusing on 'races that are "redistricting priorities" and "close races in which his support would make a meaningful difference."'
posted by ZeusHumms at 5:24 PM on October 1, 2018 [17 favorites]

Obama Endorses More Democratic Midterm Candidates - From Congress To State Houses. Miles Parks, NPR

Included in this wave of endorsements is a host of candidates who are breaking boundaries. Among them:

• Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who is running a competitive race against GOP Rep. Martha McSally to become Arizona's first woman elected to the U.S. Senate.
• Jahana Hayes, who is likely to be Connecticut's first black woman – along with the state's first black Democrat – elected to Congress.
• Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, the first African-American major party nominee for governor in Florida.
• Boston City Councilor Ayanna Pressley, who is poised to become the first black woman elected to Congress from Massachusetts.
• New York activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who at 28 could be the youngest woman elected to Congress.
• Vermont Democrat Christine Hallquist, the nation’s first openly transgender candidate nominated for governor by a major party.
posted by peeedro at 5:28 PM on October 1, 2018 [22 favorites]

WaPo, Nick Miroff and Maria Sacchetti, Trump’s family separation policy was flawed from the start, watchdog review says

The Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” crackdown at the border this spring was troubled from the outset by planning shortfalls, widespread communication failures and administrative indifference to the separation of small children from their parents, according to an unpublished report by the Department of Homeland Security’s internal watchdog.

The report, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Post, is the government’s first attempt to autopsy the chaos produced between May 5 and June 20, when President Trump abruptly halted the separations under mounting pressure from his party and members of his family.

The DHS Office of Inspector General’s review found at least 860 migrant children were left in Border Patrol holding cells longer than the 72-hour limit mandated by U.S. courts, with one minor confined for 12 days and another for 25.
...
Based on observations conducted by DHS inspectors at multiple facilities along the border in late June, agents separated children too young to talk from their parents in a way that courted disaster, the report says.

“Border Patrol does not provide pre-verbal children with wrist bracelets or other means of identification, nor does Border Patrol fingerprint or photograph most children during processing to ensure that they can be easily linked with the proper file,” the report said.
...
The inspector general’s report also found that U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) restricted the flow of asylum seekers at legal ports of entry and may have inadvertently prompted them to cross illegally. One woman said an officer had turned her away three times, so she crossed illegally.

posted by zachlipton at 5:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]

The timeline would make this surprising; I believe he was being prepped all morning, or at the very least was not alone. Nothing suggests to me that Kavanaugh needs drink to become an arrogant, aggressive, prevaricating, chauvinistic boor.

Being prepped or not alone could just mean he got multiple drinks at multiple times from people who would do it discreetly, lovingly, professionally. A bourbon from his wife, attorney 1, attorney 2...they might not coordinate but a bunch of people could discreetly hook him up thinking they were on his side.

Shiny, sweaty, red, dry mouth, goodness knows what with that blood sugar.

I think it’s plausible that he was drunk.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 5:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

From Swetnick's interview with Kate Snow (video via twitter)
posted by bluesky43 at 5:33 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

> Well, that was fast.

The DOJ's New Net Neutrality Lawsuit Is A Giant Middle Finger To State Rights, Consumers, Competition & The Democratic Process
posted by homunculus at 5:38 PM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

I want to know if Kavanaugh still drinks. I assume he does. Have there been any more-recent incidents of him being violent while wasted?

From his 2001 email sent after a fishing trip

Great work, [redacted], and thanks for hooking everything up for your weak crew. Check will be in the mail once I get your new address. Excellent time. Apologies to all for missing Friday (good excuse), arriving late Saturday (weak excuse), and growing aggressive after blowing still another game of dice (don't recall).

Reminders to everyone to be very, very, vigilant w/r/t confidentiality on all issues and all fronts, including with spouses.

posted by scalefree at 5:39 PM on October 1, 2018 [11 favorites]

I think it’s plausible and irrelevant, honestly. He could have failed a sobriety test during the hearing and the Republicans would have clutched at their pearls and accused the Dems of wanting to criminalize beer.

He’s a shit candidate and they don’t care.
posted by lydhre at 5:40 PM on October 1, 2018 [13 favorites]

Mod note: Barring any new info, please, let's let it rest on 'was he drunk', 'is he an alcoholic', etc.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 5:43 PM on October 1, 2018 [19 favorites]

kirkaracha, that RS article is amazing. The entire point of the Fox interview was so he could talk to the public while not under oath and shore up his image with the base. The quality of the lawyering we've been exposed to on the national stage for the past two years is way lower than I thought it would be.
posted by Selena777 at 5:48 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

So there's something I haven't on the Web seen nearly as much as I would expect, but it comports enough with Julie Swetnick's story that I think it has to be shared.

Among the many cryptic phrases in Georgetown Prep yearbook pages are at least three references to "Killer Q's". In one case (the page of Don Urgo Jr, who Kavanaugh has talked about as a drinking buddy in one of his speeches) it's "Killer Q's and 151's".

The number 151 probably has to do with Bacardi 151 (or another beverage that is 151 proof). So what are Killer Qs? The only hypothesis I've encountered is: quaaludes. This doesn't mean that 17-year-old Brett was involved (they aren't listed on his page). But it's a plausible point of origin for that drug being part of the lives of his social circle.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 5:58 PM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

Come on.

Ethics complaints have been filed against Kavanaugh in the DC Circuit, including at least one claiming he lied about the sexual assault allegations against him. For now, they're under the purview of DC Circuit Chief Judge — Merrick Garland.

posted by schadenfrau at 6:08 PM on October 1, 2018 [148 favorites]

Meanwhile, Daniel Dale live-tweeted/fact-checked Trump's Tennessee rally earlier this evening. It wasn't as batshit as his Rose Garden press conference, but he was lying like a Persian rug store:

—Trump repeats his lies about Richard Blumenthal's Vietnam lies. This time calls him Da Nang Blumenthal. Earlier today it was Da Nang Richard.
—Trump repeats his regular lie about the U.S. having a trade deficit with China as high as $500 billion, which has never happened once. Trump has now said this more than 70 times. I am bored of tweeting about it.
—Trump lies that his $716 billion military budget is a record. Obama did $725 billion in 2011. That's the 18th time he's said this.
Trump then lies that he provided the biggest troop pay raise in "over a decade." It's the biggest in nine years.
These needless ones are the Trumpiest lies. He could just boast that he's given the troops the biggest raise in nine years, or "in a decade," and nobody would say anything, but he must make it "over a decade" because the truth is never good enough.
—Tears Alert! Trump says he was approached tonight by a "strong, tough cookie, I wouldn't want to fight him," and the man was crying, and the man told him, "Thank you for saving our country."
This tears tale was especially-obviously invented. He began by talking about how strong, tough cookies sometimes approach him tearfully, then suddenly added that it actually happened tonight.

At one point when Trump's bragging about his presidency, he tells the crowd, "Look at what we've done. Nobody believes it."
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:09 PM on October 1, 2018 [9 favorites]

So what are Killer Qs? The only hypothesis I've encountered is: quaaludes.

I'd be skeptical that it stands for Quaaludes, which were more or less taken off the market in the 70s for most people who would have gotten them otherwise. Sure, they could have been snobs using vintage dope, but...skeptical.
posted by rhizome at 6:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [10 favorites]

Don Q? (a rum)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

I'd be skeptical that it stands for Quaaludes, which were more or less taken off the market in the 70s for most people who would have gotten them otherwise. Sure, they could have been snobs using vintage dope, but...skeptical.

Well, I believe there was a trend towards illicitly manufactured counterfeit quaaludes in the 80's to make up for the loss of the original, not that I have detailed personal knowledge.
posted by cultcargo at 6:21 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

> So we took the worst part of the TPP, plus milk, and gave them back some assurances Trump can't impose unilateral sanctions.

He's Got His Trade Deal—and His Same Nasty Attitude Towards Anyone Who Dares Ask Him a Question. President* Trump celebrates his un-NAFTA deal with Mexico and Canada.

John Harwood of CNBC, bless him, pointed out that much of this new deal was sitting right there on the Resolute desk when its improbable new squatter showed up in January of 2017. Appearing on MSNBC, Harwood said:

Most of the improvements on the deal were on the president's desk the day he walked into office. They were negotiated by President Obama and his counterparts in Canada and Mexico as part of the Transpacific Partnership which President Trump quickly threw in the trash can...Mostly this is re-labeling. So, mostly the president who is a master marketer is putting his name on a deal that was already in place, and it's better than not having a deal.

posted by homunculus at 6:22 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Avenatti: CuomoPrimeTime on Swetnick
posted by bluesky43 at 6:35 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Dan Murphy (CSMonitor)
Kavanaugh starting a fight when backed up by a 6'11" goon is very on brand.
posted by chris24 at 6:39 PM on October 1, 2018 [24 favorites]

This time calls him Da Nang Blumenthal. Earlier today it was Da Nang Richard.

Using "Blumenthal" makes it an antisemitic slur too. Double trouble.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:59 PM on October 1, 2018 [4 favorites]

illicitly manufactured counterfeit quaaludes in the 80's

I remember one of the wasters in my high school explaining to me, about 1982, that taking a 'lude was just like having another beer, so that, after washing it down, instead of your say 5 beer buzz, you were now at 6. I knew enough even then to know that was insane. They were still a thing for sure.
posted by thelonius at 7:08 PM on October 1, 2018 [5 favorites]

among those decadent youth at the prep school that was not in g'town prep's region, i recall a brother and sister (she was my classmate & he a year older) who explained their access to quaaludes, circa '85-'87, with the assertion that their father was a psychiatrist & the implication that they took them from his supply. wikipedia notes that while methaqualone was rescheduled in 1979, use in the US was discontinued in 1985. i'd have been too scared or careful to try pills at that time (though a precocious drinker, like many among my peers), not that they were offered to me. that is my only recollection of quaaludes' availability in real life. years later, some college neighbors, enjoying access to what they described as their medical-professional-parents' free-sample boxes, sometimes hosted a "downer sunday"patient football-explaining event. painkillers, beer & tv. i bet they're all deans of medicine by now.
posted by 20 year lurk at 7:11 PM on October 1, 2018 [6 favorites]

Kavanaugh will not be teaching at Harvard this coming January.
posted by chris24 at 7:12 PM on October 1, 2018 [70 favorites]

Harry Enten of CNN and previously 538 sums up my feelings on Senate polling: We've had more polls of Electoral Jesus (Beto) in the last 5 minutes than we've had in North Dakota all year.
posted by Justinian at 7:15 PM on October 1, 2018 [18 favorites]

I thought ND had some anti-robocall law that makes it difficult to poll accurately?
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 7:17 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

So what are Killer Qs? The only hypothesis I've encountered is: quaaludes. This doesn't mean that 17-year-old Brett was involved (they aren't listed on his page). But it's a plausible point of origin for that drug being part of the lives of his social circle.

The call transcript linked to by scalefree, released by the Judiciary Committee majority per zachlipton, contains this exchange on page 8:

██████████ Did you attempt to add drugs, including Quaaludes, to punch at house parties in an effort to take advantage of women?
Judge Kavanaugh. No.
██████████ Have you ever given Quaaludes to a woman?
Judge Kavanaugh. No.

I'm noticing that in the last US politics thread it was pointed out that no questions about Quaaludes were asked during the hearing.
posted by XMLicious at 7:48 PM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

In the mid-to-late 80s, I was on a Rocky Horror cast; I knew of people who used Quaaludes. I have no idea if they were real or counterfeit, but the term was definitely part of the "rebel" party scene. Killer Q's could easily be Quaaludes; that's definitely what I would've thought then if I saw "Killer Q & 151" in a yearbook.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:50 PM on October 1, 2018 [8 favorites]

Also, once they really did become hard to find various concoctions of barbituates were sold as "ludes." According to various rock-n-roll memoirs etc.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:12 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

John Oliver: Kavanaugh’s Senate hearing was a “fuck you” to women. Karen Han, Vox.

The Last Week Tonight host summarized the Senate Judiciary Committee’s message as, “We believe you — we just don’t care.”

Links to video of segment, which took up most of the 9/30 episode.
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:16 PM on October 1, 2018 [22 favorites]

If Kavanaugh hadn't heard of the Ramirez allegations before the NYT article was he shoring up support beforehand because he already knew he was guilty?
posted by fullerine at 8:34 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

For those without the patience, Oliver characterizes Kavanaugh as such;

Oliver, knowing that the supreme court is a rather dry subject for comedy, has his own version of adorable doggos to represent the justices. There's Woof Bader-Ginsburg, for example, represented by a small white terrier. Gorsuch is represented by a lobster, because it just doesn't belong on a panel of dogs, and no-one can explain how it got there.

In this visual analogy, Kavanaugh is represented by Gritty, the maligned PA Flyers new mascot.
posted by adept256 at 8:49 PM on October 1, 2018 [23 favorites]

Methaqualone was removed from the US market in 1985.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:14 PM on October 1, 2018 [3 favorites]

Politico: Roger Stone Associate to Plead 5th Before Senate Panel

Comedian/radio talk show host Randy Credico—and intermediary between Stone and Julian Assange—told the Senate Intelligence Committee's Russia investigators on Monday that he plans to plead the Fifth Amendment in response to its subpoena for testimony and documents.

This wouldn't be the first time, as Credico had asserted his Fifth Amendment rights just before an interview with the House Intelligence Committee last December (Mother Jones).
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:29 PM on October 1, 2018 [2 favorites]

Once upon a time, someone got the idea to encourage interest in the Supreme Court...by doing a sexy 20something justices dating game. Then ah, Things Got Complicated.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:42 PM on October 1, 2018 [7 favorites]

Texas breaks voter registration record ahead of midterm election
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:51 PM on October 1, 2018 [53 favorites]

FT, US considered ban on student visas for Chinese nationals

White House hawks earlier this year encouraged President Donald Trump to stop providing student visas to Chinese nationals, but the proposal was shelved over concerns about its economic and diplomatic impact.

As the administration debated ways to tackle Chinese meddling in US politics, Stephen Miller, a White House aide who has been pivotal in developing the administration’s hardline immigration policies, pushed the president and other officials to make it impossible for Chinese citizens to study in the US, according to three people familiar with the situation.
...
While the debate was largely focused on spying, Mr Miller argued that his plan would also hurt elite universities whose staff and students had slammed Mr Trump, according to three people. After his idea sparked intense debate, the issue came to a head in an Oval Office meeting in the spring during which he squared off with opponents, including Terry Branstad, the former Iowa governor who is US ambassador to China.

According to three people familiar with the situation, ahead of the Oval Office meeting Mr Branstad argued that Mr Miller’s plan would take a much bigger toll on smaller colleges, including in Iowa, than on wealthy Ivy League universities. US embassy officials in Beijing also made a broader economic argument that most American states enjoy service-sector trade surpluses with China, in part because of spending by Chinese students.

This is utterly ludicrous.
posted by zachlipton at 9:55 PM on October 1, 2018 [45 favorites]

This may be a derail, feel free to delete if necessary. I tried to watch the hearings on Thursday, but after two minutes of watching Professor Ford I was crying and needed to stop. I had not seen anymore of them, though I have read about them and followed this thread. I just watched the John Oliver link above and saw parts of Kavanaugh's testimony for the first time, and parts of Lindsey Graham's outburst. My initial reaction was that Kavanaugh was drunk. I experienced that personality/slow motion cognitive capacity coupled with the trying to gauge and calculate how to respond/how to act appropriately and the outbursts and nonsensical responses nearly every day when I was growing up as my father went from starting to drink to various levels of severe intoxication. Kavanaugh's tongue going into his left cheek so frequently was reminiscent of my father's repeated motion when he was drunk, a motion he used regularly when drunk to keep his mind present. Lindsey Graham's outburst and Orin Hatch's erratic statements struck a chord with me as well. Reminded me of family members who were not drunk trying to cover up/deflect from the drunken behavior of my father by acting more outrageous or more loud (enablers). I believe that Brett Kavanaugh was drunk during his testimony and using tools to come off as not drunk that he is very, very familiar with, and Lindsey Graham was his enabler. I have a lot of experience with drunks and sober people and their behaviors, growing up in an alcoholic house, getting sober at age 23, and over the years working directly with hundreds of people who wanted to get sober, too. I have finely tuned radar in this area.
posted by W Grant at 10:07 PM on October 1, 2018 [86 favorites]

holy shit though. banning like a fifth of the population of the world from american schools. that is a brilliant way to guarantee that american research universities suck for at least a generation.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 10:10 PM on October 1, 2018 [39 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:

-- AZ-02: Siena poll has Dem Kirkpatrick up 50-39 on GOPer Marquez Peterson [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Clinton 50-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- VA-02: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Taylor up 49-41 on Dem Luria [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Tossup] => This one is a bit of a surprise, given the recent Taylor scandal.

-- IA-03: Siena poll has Dem Axne up 44-43 on GOP incumbent Young [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Tossup]

-- OH-01: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Chabot up 50-41 on Dem Pureval [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Trump 51-45 | Cook: Tossup] => A theory that's emerging about some polling results we're seeing is that Dems are doing a fantastic job mobilizing college-educated whites, but not such a hot job with African-American voters. This district's Dems are mostly AAs, which might explain the seeming underperformance.

-- CA-45: GBA Strategies poll has Dem Porter up 48-47 on GOP incumbent Walters [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by an anti-Citizens United PAC. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- FL-15: Bold Blue Campaigns poll has GOPer Spano up 49-46 on Dem Carlson [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. BBC is not a 538-rated pollster. Poll appears to be commissioned by the DCCC. [Trump 53-43 | Cook: Lean R]

-- Emerson polls of KS districts:

- KS-01: GOP incumbent Marshall up 44-17 on Dem LaPolice [MOE: +/- 6.8%]. [Trump 69-24 | Cook: Solid R]
- KS-02: Dem Davis up 35-31 on GOPer Watkins [MOE: +/- 6.4%]. [Trump 56-37 | Cook: Tossup]
- KS-03: Dem Davids up 47-41 on GOP incumbent Yoder [MOE: +/- 6.4%]. [Clinton 47-46 | Cook: Tossup] => NRCC apparently triaging this district, as they cancel major ad buys.
- KS-04: GOP incumbent Estes up 50-26 on Dem Thompson [MOE: +/- 6.4%]. [Trump 60-33 | Cook: Solid R]

-- CO-06: Tarrance Group poll has Dem Crow up 42-40 on GOP incumbent Coffman [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Coffman campaign. [Clinton 50-41 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NJ-11: National Research poll has Dem Sherrill up 46-43 on GOPer Webber [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Webber campaign. [Trump 49-48 | Cook: Lean D]

-- WA-05: FM3 poll has GOP incumbent McMorris Rodgers up 49-46 on Dem Brown [MOE: +/- 4.3%]. Poll was commissioned by the Brown campaign. [Trump 52-39 | Cook: Lean R]

-- MN-08: Victoria Research poll has Dem Radinovich up 45-44 on GOPer Stauber [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Brown campaign. [Trump 54-39 | Cook: Tossup] => This isn't super-great for Radinovich in such a Trump district, but the RGA appears to be cutting GOP gov candidate Johnson loose, which may help Radinovich.

-- OK-05: Sooner Poll has GOP incumbent Russell up 47-37 on Dem Horn [MOE: +/- 5.63%]. [Trump 53-40 | Cook: Solid R] => Russell isn't in any serious danger, but this is a pretty narrow margin for this district, which might have implications for the (pretty close) governor's race.

-- CA-22: Esquire investigation finds that GOP incumbent Nunes secretly moved his farm holdings out of California to Iowa and is employing undocumented workers. Metafilter FPP. [Trump 52-42 | Cook: Solid R]

-- CA-39: Dem candidate Cisneros had been hurt by sexual harassment charges but today his accuser totally repudiated those charges, and denounced GOP Super PAC ads highlighting the allegations. [Clinton 52-43 | Cook: Tossup]

-- FL-17: FL Dems have chosen think tanker Allen Ellison to replace former candidate April Freeman, who passed away suddenly. [Trump 62-35 | Cook: Solid R]

-- Dem 3Q fundraising totals are starting to come in, and are just crazy high. That said, you need a certain amount of money to be a serious candidate, but it's definitely not a case where the biggest fundraiser is the winner.

-- Weekly look at the 538 generic ballot average shows D+8.4 (49.4/41.0).

** 2018 Senate:

-- NV: SSRS poll has Dem Rosen up 47-43 on GOP incumbent Heller [MOE: +/- 4.6%].

-- MO: SSRS poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill up 47-43 on GOPer Hawley [MOE: +/- 4.3%]. || Remington Research poll has Hawley up 48-46 [MOE: +/- 2.5%].

-- NJ: Stockton U poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 45-43 on GOPer Hugin [MOE: +/- 4.25%]. => There have been some serious questions raised about the methodology used in this poll.

-- FL: PPP poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 48-44 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. | St Pete Polls has Nelson tied 47-47 (Nelson leads before rounding) [MOE: +/- 2.0%]. | Nelson (and Gillum) endorsed by Puerto Rico's mayor.

-- ND: SRA poll has GOPer Cramer up 51-41 on Dem incumbent Heitkamp [no MOE listed]. SRA is not a 538-rated pollster. => I don't normally like to include pollsters not on 538 and with no crosstabs or even an MOE provided, but this is one of the very rare ND polls, so it seemed best. Internals from both campaigns reportedly have Cramer with a couple of point lead. Also worth noting that Heitkamp was down 10 points at this same point in 2012.

-- MT: PPP poll has Dem incumbent Tester up 49-45 on GOPer Rosendale [MOE: +/- 4.02%].

-- WV: SRA poll has Dem incumbent Manchin up 46-38 on GOPer Morrisey [MOE: +/- 3.84%]. SRA is not a 538-rated pollster.

-- NY: Siena poll has Dem incumbent Gillibrand up 61-29 on GOPer Farley [MOE: +/- 3.9%].

-- Enten: FL race seems to be moving towards "fundamentals". If this happens elsewhere, could really help the Dems.

** Odds & ends:

-- NV gov: Same SSRS poll has Dem Sisolak up 45-41 on GOPer Laxalt. [Cook: Tossup]

-- KS gov: Same Emerson poll has GOPer Kobach at 37, Dem Kelly at 36, indy Orman at 9 [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- FL gov: Same PPP poll has Dem Gillum up 48-44 on GOPer DeSantis. | Same St Pete Polls survey has Gillum up 47-45. [Cook: Tossup]

-- NY gov: Same Siena poll has Dem incumbent Cuomo at 50, GOPer Molinaro at 28, and WFPer Nixon at 10. [Cook: Solid D] => Sounds like Nixon may still be trying to get off the ballot, but I'm not sure of where that effort stands. | AG race: Dem James up 50-33 on GOPer Wofford.

-- VT gov: Tulchin Research poll has GOP incumbent Scott up 50-42 on Dem Hallquist [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Cook: Solid R]

-- GA gov: Garin-Hart-Yang poll has Dem Abrams up 48-42 on GOPer Kemp [MOE: +/- 4.1%]. Poll was commissioned by the Abrams campaign. | Landmark poll has Kemp up 48-46 [MOE: +/- 3.2%]. Georgia requires a majority; either of the above would mean a runoff. [Cook: Tossup]

-- EMC Research poll shows Florida Amendment 4 (felon re-enfranchisement) at 74 YES to 23 NO. 60% approval is required to pass [MOE: +/- 3.1%]. | Florida Chamber of Commerce poll shows it as 42 YES, 20 NO [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- MN AG: The investigation requested by the DFL has found that accusations against AG candidate Ellison can't be substantiated, because his accuser is not willing to provide the video she says proves her case. This will likely be enough for Ellison to eke out a win.

-- AG Jim Hood to run for MS governor in 2019. Hood is the only statewide elected Dem in Mississippi, and is quite popular. This is still a tall order, but he's surely the best shot Dems have here.

-- Nifty new election site from Daily Kos lets you look at all polling for any seat up this year, plus lots of other stuff.

posted by Chrysostom at 10:18 PM on October 1, 2018 [43 favorites]

petebest: "Muellercake futures rose on this 499th day without significant leaks. Local bakeries are awaiting the latest election report from Chrysostom, and The Office of Pastry Throwdowns issued a reminder to Americans to beware of banana pants on heads. "

Sorry, I had a really busy day. Several pages of details above; short version is give Heidi Heitkamp money.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:21 PM on October 1, 2018 [12 favorites]

a generation of young Chinese who will go elsewhere but resent the US for the rest of their lives--especially in 20-30 years when they start running things

China's rising inequality and pace of resource extraction is, if anything, even less sustainable than the US' -- but it's still a really dumb policy, even as a proposal.

I refuse to believe Miller doesn't have shit out there that would make him a liability in a public role (as vs. some shitty policy org on K street). While I regret these are our politics now, rather than being able to just discredit someone for their odious ideas, for as long as they are I wish someone would go find it. He is the worst and he keeps getting Trump's ear.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [10 favorites]

The DOJ's New Net Neutrality Lawsuit Is A Giant Middle Finger To State Rights, Consumers, Competition & The Democratic Process

Unfortunately, this is one of the rare administration lawsuits that might have some merit. Telecommunications policy is one of those areas (like immigration enforcement) that are properly federal, because state borders don't have any real significance in these sectors. Electronic signals don't stop at borders.

That's why the state of Oregon took a more defensible approach. Instead of mandating net neutrality -- a direct refutation of federal law -- the legislature simply told the state government that it could only use net-neutral ISPs for its own offices. Since it's easily a top 3 customer in the state, with Nike and Intel, and has offices in every significant city, that creates a massive incentive for companies to comply. But no one is forced to.

It doesn't sound as impressive to partisan supporters, but it gets the job done in a lawsuit-proof way.
posted by msalt at 10:32 PM on October 1, 2018 [40 favorites]

Some good news: Robinson Meyer, The Atlantic: A Setback for Trump's Plan To Slash Public Lands:

. . . The victories, though procedural, may ultimately prove crucial in the case. The groundbreaking decision is particularly key: It ensures that advocates will learn of any prospecting or oil-drilling activities before they occur. Heidi McIntosh, an attorney at the environmental group Earthjustice and a lead counsel in the case, told me that litigants could now ask the court to issue an injunction to stop environmentally destructive activities before they occur. Under normal circumstances, the Bureau of Land Management would not need to notify the public (or environmental groups) before approving some types of exploratory oil drilling or uranium mining.

. . . Judge [Tanya] Chutkan’s decision to keep the case in Washington may turn out to be equally important. . . . In D.C., courts have a particular expertise in reining in the power of the president. “Not surprisingly, the District of Utah does not,” McIntosh said. Keeping the trial in D.C. means that environmentalists can draw upon that far larger body of precedent.

Switching jurisdictions might have also undermined tribal claims in the case. The land called Bears Ears is sacred to six different indigenous nations. And though Bears Ears National Monument is located entirely within Utah’s borders, the same is not true of all six of those nations, as some have reservations located only in Arizona or New Mexico. Indigenous nations may therefore have lacked standing to sue Trump in Utah; they have a better case in Washington.

posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 11:23 PM on October 1, 2018 [14 favorites]

Stephen Miller, a White House aide who has been pivotal in developing the administration’s hardline immigration policies, pushed the president and other officials to make it impossible for Chinese citizens to study in the US,

This guy and his fucking racist fantasies! Instead of being immediately fired for being a giant fuckwit, they need to talk sense to Trump so he doesn't get his way. This fucking administration. JFC
posted by adept256 at 12:08 AM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

Hey, look at that:
Trump Administration to Deny Visas to Same-Sex Partners of Diplomats, U.N. Officials
The new policy will insist they be married—even if they're from countries that criminalize gay marriage.

Samantha Power, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, denounced the new policy on Twitter as “needlessly cruel & bigoted.”

“State Dept. will no longer let same-sex domestic partners of UN employees get visas unless they are married,” she tweeted, noting that “only 12% of UN member states allow same-sex marriage.”

It is going to take you decades to attempt to undo the harm this administration is doing on all sides.
posted by PontifexPrimus at 12:10 AM on October 2, 2018 [73 favorites]

The Chinese student issue is legitimately complicated, in that there really is a problem of the Chinese state using Chinese students and institutions to promote their political ends (including academic censorship) abroad. That said, a blanket denial of visas to all Chinese students is the stupidest imaginable solution to that problem.
posted by Aravis76 at 1:30 AM on October 2, 2018 [17 favorites]

on the subject of stopping the income from overseas students....sigh, foot...shot....major owie!


In a weird twist of careers I once had to set up an office for the Irish Tourist Board called MEI, Marketing English in Ireland.

This was on foot of a study which literally blew people's minds, even through we were dealing with an industry that was largely made up of your Spanish and Italian 1 months summer course "swallows" the Visiting Friends and relatives VFR for the tiny number of University and High-school foreigners was 2:5. So the original investment of the student in course, accommodation and expenses was magnified 2 & ½ times by the spend of VFR, as in particular the wealthy Japanese and Brazilian spend of sometimes up to 10 times what they spent in sending their child for a high-school year as Mum and Dad came and shopped for Louis Vuitton on Grafton St Dublin at Christmas was simply staggering.

The study showed that the tiny number of long-stay students obviously massively increased foreign earnings so much so that in total the English as a Foreign Language industry in Ireland was responsible for 10% of TOTAL tourism revenue. (A lot of the rest is of course Plastic Paddy's but hey, we don't judge!) This was way back in 2005 so I left in 2010 and haven't kept up with the industry. Malta jumped on the bandwagon and have replicated the Irish result according to a recent Deloitte report


Obviously this is easier for small countries but the UK and USA had the most diversified market take meaning your industry was the standard setter. Even the crumbs from the recent changes of Brexit and Trump and what they mean for the EFL sector will literally lift the Irish, Aussie and NZ industries to greater income. The UK and USA haven't yet identified the costs of their scary-immigration stances but no doubt they will have confidential data and the providers must be screaming the impact to the powers that be, just no one cares. So like, sexual abuse survivors.

One soft power people underestimate and I've come across it again and again all over the world is the potential impact when your Taoiseach meets with other world leaders who learned their English in Ireland.
posted by Wilder at 1:58 AM on October 2, 2018 [28 favorites]

Wouldn’t it make s great deal more sense if he said, “That’s okay. I know you’re not thanking. You never do.”? He is responding to her saying, “Thank you,” so it makes way more sense. It also goes along with his desire to be praised/thanked.

The White House is going with "I know you're not thanking. You never do."

Steve Herman from VOA News: Official @WhiteHouse transcripts misquotes @POTUS today chiding @CeciliaVega (compare video to text). I was sitting just behind her in the Rose Garden and we all clearly heard him say: "I know you're not thinking. You never do.”
posted by peeedro at 2:34 AM on October 2, 2018 [20 favorites]

Texas breaks voter registration record ahead of midterm election

And along the same lines...

TIME: A Record 800,000 People Registered to Vote on National Voter Registration Day

They had hoped to get 300,000. In the last midterm in 2014, they registered 150,000.
posted by chris24 at 4:27 AM on October 2, 2018 [80 favorites]

The White Supremacy Hour on FOX is going great.

Andrew Lawrence (MMFA)
Tucker Carlson just warned his viewers about liberals advocating for white "genocide"
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 4:31 AM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

Alex Trebek moderated a gubernatorial debate in Pennsylvania. It didn’t go well (WaPo). He joked that he was drunk when he accepted the job, he opened with a trivia question about the Eagles, he was booed for comparing the popularity of the PA legislature to the Catholic church, interjected with his own opinions on pension obligations, argued with the audience about natural gas taxes, and asked long-winded questions that took up a significant part of the 45 minute debate.
posted by peeedro at 4:34 AM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

I'm old enough to remember Trump telling the American people he knew nothing about the payments to Stormy.

WSJ: Trump Directed Legal Action to Enforce Stormy Daniels’s Hush Agreement

President Trump personally directed an effort in February to stop Stormy Daniels from publicly describing an alleged sexual encounter with Mr. Trump, people familiar with the events say.

In a phone call, Mr. Trump instructed his then-lawyer Michael Cohen to seek a restraining order against the former adult-film actress, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, through a confidential arbitration proceeding, one of the people said. Messrs. Trump and Cohen had learned shortly before that Ms. Clifford was considering giving a media interview about her alleged relationship with Mr. Trump, despite having signed an October 2016 nondisclosure agreement.

Mr. Trump told Mr. Cohen to coordinate the legal response with Eric Trump, one of the president’s sons, and another outside lawyer who had represented Mr. Trump and the Trump Organization in other matters, the people said. Eric Trump, who is running the company with his brother in Mr. Trump’s absence, then tasked a Trump Organization staff attorney in California with signing off on the arbitration paperwork, these people said.

Direct involvement of the president and his son in the effort to silence Ms. Clifford hasn’t previously been reported. The accounts of that effort recently provided to The Wall Street Journal suggest that the president’s ties to his company continued into this year and contradict public statements made at the time by the Trump Organization, the White House and Mr. Cohen.

posted by chris24 at 4:54 AM on October 2, 2018 [51 favorites]

White House hawks earlier this year encouraged President Donald Trump to stop providing student visas to Chinese nationals, but the proposal was shelved over concerns about its economic and diplomatic impact.


That they would even talk about it is so stupid. A policy like that would devastate universities in the US, especially graduate departments. Not to mention the fact that so many foreign students end up staying here and working in tech and medicine.
posted by octothorpe at 5:05 AM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Mark Judge was a Gamergater.
posted by zombieflanders at 5:09 AM on October 2, 2018 [99 favorites]

@ElectProject
A Georgia #earlyvote update: 2018 early voting (mail & in-person) is slightly more than double 2014 at the same number of days prior to the election. While all races are seeing higher turnout, African-Americans are 4x their 2014 numbers. We'll have to see if this persists. CHART
• The @staceyabrams campaign is encouraging her supporters to vote-by-mail, so it is difficult to know how much of the heightened voting is due to mobilization by the campaign or motivation by the voters
posted by chris24 at 5:12 AM on October 2, 2018 [28 favorites]

Mark Judge was a Gamergater.

Never forget that the FBI investigated Gamergate, found plenty of evidence of crimes including outright confessions, and went “yeah, but harassing and stalking women with the intent to terrorize them isn’t REALLY a big deal” and declined to pursue it.
posted by schadenfrau at 5:30 AM on October 2, 2018 [133 favorites]

Hey now, let's just remember that it's only terrorism when the target is the business interests of rich white men.
posted by tocts at 5:37 AM on October 2, 2018 [31 favorites]

Tucker Carlson just warned his viewers about liberals advocating for white "genocide"

That's just silly. As a liberal, I do not advocate for white "genocide." I may or may not be able to get behind white "take it down a notch."
posted by delfin at 6:08 AM on October 2, 2018 [42 favorites]

welp.

link is to a tweet with the a headline from The Federalist which clarifies exactly where we stand now
posted by murphy slaw at 6:09 AM on October 2, 2018 [13 favorites]

I skimmed that Federalist article, just out of curiosity of what their argument could possibly be. They narrow the scope to just the sexual assault accusations, not the lying and tendencies toward rage. And then they just make a very broad application of the presumption of innocence and the aphorism that it is better to let 10 guilty men go free than to persecute 1 innocent man. And they assume that there can be no knowing the truth of what happened.

I reiterate it here just to save you all a click.
posted by He Is Only The Imposter at 6:20 AM on October 2, 2018 [65 favorites]

So basically, bad analogies all around. Yeah, in the case of a legal matter, we'd rather let 10 guilty men go free than persecute 1 innocent man. But, when appointing people to positions of power, the public good is served by literally the opposite -- we'd rather 10 good candidates be denied than ensconce 1 bad candidate for life.
posted by tocts at 6:22 AM on October 2, 2018 [79 favorites]

persecute <> not let join the SOTUS

If only those types were so worried about one innocent when it comes to any actual law with prison time behind it.
posted by bootlegpop at 6:26 AM on October 2, 2018 [31 favorites]

Holy shit, if that thread is to be believed Judge’s deleted YouTube channel was apparently a bunch of creepy short videos of women in swimsuits or underwear passed out or sleeping on top of beds with weird conspiracy references interwoven.

I mean.....what?
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:28 AM on October 2, 2018 [27 favorites]

Yes on Judge's YouTube. See also his pool party scouting trip.
posted by armacy at 6:35 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

I sincerely hope the people in Judge's videos were full-grown women. In the stills I saw, a lot of them looked lije they were in their mid-teens.
posted by palmcorder_yajna at 6:38 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Reminder that “white genocide” is a white nationalist term for mixed race relationships, people from other races having jobs they want and in general anything not going the way white nationalists want it to. It’s basucally the 2 word version of the 14 words.
posted by Artw at 6:42 AM on October 2, 2018 [67 favorites]

Reddit has a screenshot of Mark Judge's channel videos page. It looks like a creepy old guy's collection of videos of models. And ... Alec Baldwin. ?

"Ok, so what is the problem? Am I missing some background knowledge about Mark Judge? Because the tweet only shows three still images of women passed out/sleeping. If that alone without context is enough for you to condemn someone, that's a big yikes."

Yes, only three were passed out or sleeping. I mean, pfft.
posted by petebest at 6:52 AM on October 2, 2018 [9 favorites]

New Pew Research Poll: Trump’s International Ratings Remain Low, Especially Among Key Allies—Most still want U.S. as top global power, but see China on the rise (PDF of complete report)

"America’s global image plummeted following the election of President Donald Trump, amid widespread opposition to his administration’s policies and a widely shared lack of confidence in his leadership. Now, as the second anniversary of Trump’s election approaches, a new 25-nation Pew Research Center survey finds that Trump’s international image remains poor, while ratings for the United States are much lower than during Barack Obama’s presidency."

Sample findings include confidence/no confidence in Trump at 27/70% and favorable/unfavorable view of US at 50/43%. Also, Trump, Putin, and Xi receive no confidence scores of 70%, 62%, and 56% (the inverse of the surveyed opinions on Merkel and Macron).
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:04 AM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

I guess Alec Baldwin is still cranky about the time everyone condemned him for being verbally abusive to his daughter without knowing "the whole story" (i.e. why his rage was excusable and/or she deserved it)
posted by the turtle's teeth at 7:12 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Why conservatives don’t care that Brett Kavanaugh is a liar - Zack Beauchamp, Vox

So why don’t Republicans care?
...
I couldn’t get a good handle on this until I read a paper by three scholars — Carnegie Mellon’s Oliver Hahl, Northwestern’s Minjae Kim, and MIT’s Ezra Zuckerman-Sivan — on how voters could recognize that a politician is lying but consider them authentic and appealing.

Using both a large-scale survey and a lab experiment, Hahl and his colleagues demonstrate that people are shockingly willing to look past lies from someone that they feel represents their group. Instead, the lies are seen in the broader context of what supporters see as a “deeper truth” — in this case, that Kavanaugh is an innocent target of a Democratic smear campaign.

“As with Trump, the deeper truth is that a particular group is treated unfairly by the establishment (recall Kavanaugh’s opening),” Zuckerman-Sivan wrote in a Twitter thread. “So long as the obvious lies can be framed as serving that larger truth, the liar can present himself as the group’s ‘authentic champion.’”

The larger truths here seem to be:

1. Conservatives are the real victims in America
2. Kavanaugh deserves a seat on the Supreme Court

The application of this study to the Kavanaugh case is quite clear. Here, conservatives are lining up to defend their nominee to be the fifth vote on the Supreme Court against allegations of sexual assault. It’s a defense of social group and status hierarchy against an upstart challenger, just like in the study. This is what made his fiery opening testimony so effective, at least for conservatives: It appealed to their sense of in-group threat and partisan identity.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:20 AM on October 2, 2018 [38 favorites]

> Why conservatives don’t care that Brett Kavanaugh is a liar - Zack Beauchamp, Vox

Fucking Fuck XV Thread here.
posted by klarck at 7:35 AM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

I'm being petty, but I really enjoy the fact that Kavanaugh's belligerent supreme court nomination hearing has produced a TON of pissy and angry Brett faces, producing a ton of great article header material, like this one from Rolling Stone for their re-posting of the NYT story that Brett Kavanaugh Instigated Bar Fight After UB40 Concert, Police Report Reveals.

chris24: Kavanaugh will not be teaching at Harvard this coming January.

“Today, Judge Kavanaugh indicated that he can no longer commit to teaching his course in January Term 2019, so the course will not be offered,” Associate Dean and Dean for Academic and Faculty Affairs Catherine Claypoole wrote in the email, which she sent on behalf of the Law School's Curriculum Committee.

From CNN's reporting:

Kavanaugh was scheduled to teach a class in the winter term, according to a source familiar with the matter. However, the source could not confirm the reason Kavanaugh would not be teaching at the school in 2019 beyond the statement sent out by school officials that he could "no longer commit to teaching his course." It was not immediately clear if Kavanaugh dropped out due to anticipation that he would be serving on the Supreme Court.

It would be hi-larious if Brett had submitted his letter stating he couldn't teach in January some time last month, assuming that he'd be serving on the Supreme Court by then, only to find himself down one (very prestigious) job.

He really must be pressed for beer and gambling money if he's working more than one job. {/hamburger}

Then he'd have more time to volunteer to coach girl's basketball, which he is allowed to do, unless people cause too much of a ruckus at games that it becomes a distraction. He passed his volunteer coach background check, he's good by us! Said Edward McFadden, spokesperson for the Archdiocese of Washington. [real, at least as of Sept. 28, 2018]
posted by filthy light thief at 7:36 AM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

I downloaded two of Judge's videos before he took his site offline. The videos are creepy AF.
posted by Yowser at 7:38 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Former Starbucks chairman and CEO Howard Schultz plans to travel the country beginning early next year, including stops in states that could help in a possible Democratic presidential run.
posted by Artw at 7:41 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

PontifexPrimus: It is going to take you decades to attempt to undo the harm this administration is doing on all sides.

A reminder of how good Obama and his administration were compared to this shit-show, and how much we can (probably) still rely on that earlier work: 'A Kind Of Vague Hostility': Michael Lewis On How Trump Loyalists Run Agencies (NPR, Oct. 1, 2018)

"Before the election, the Obama administration had spent the better part of a year and a thousand people's time creating essentially the best course ever created on how the federal government works, and what the problems are in each of these departments," Lewis tells All Things Considered, "with the idea that the day after the election, hundreds of people from the new administration would roll in, and get the briefings, and learn what the problems were and how they dealt with them.

"And the Trump administration just didn't show. I mean, across the government, parking spaces were empty, and nice little finger sandwiches that had been laid out went uneaten, and briefing books went unopened — to the point where, when I roll in a few months later, I'm the first person who's heard the briefing that the Trump administration was supposed to get."

I'm expecting the next administration could roll in, sweep out the empty beer bottles, McDonalds wrappers, Chinese take-out, and other detritus left by this administration, dig out those still un-opened "How To Govern Better" books and get going. Unless Trump and Co literally set it all on fire on their way out.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:42 AM on October 2, 2018 [56 favorites]

Former Starbucks chairman and CEO Howard Schultz plans to travel the country beginning early next year, including stops in states that could help in a possible Democratic presidential run.

LOL no, sorry, no more white male capitalists 2020
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 7:46 AM on October 2, 2018 [115 favorites]

And NPR had an interesting summary of the current SCOTUS (Oct. 1, 2018):

While all these machinations were taking place, the Supreme Court opened a new term and began hearing arguments. Once again, as in 2016, the court has only eight justices. Back then, Senate Republican Leader McConnell blocked any hearing for President Obama's nominee to the court for almost a year. But back then, Justice Anthony Kennedy, a conservative who sometimes sided with the court's liberals, was still on the court. Now he has retired.

So today, for the first time in well over 30 years, there was no justice like Kennedy or Sandra Day O'Connor - both appointed by President Reagan - who sits ideologically at the center of the court. And today, the liberal-conservative split was apparent in the first case to be argued, a challenge to a regulation under the Endangered Species Act. The central player in the case is the dusky gopher frog, which sounds a bit like this.
...
A 4-to-4 tie would mean the lower court ruling stays in place, meaning [major timber company] Weyerhaeuser loses [and the dusky gopher frog, as well as biodiversity in general, wins -- ed.]. How fast the court gets a ninth justice depends on how quickly the Senate can hop along.

That's right, let's end with a frog joke, when we're talking about the fate of an endangered species. Har har!
posted by filthy light thief at 7:47 AM on October 2, 2018 [13 favorites]

I'm expecting the next administration could roll in, sweep out the empty beer bottles, McDonalds wrappers, Chinese take-out, and other detritus left by this administration, dig out those still un-opened "How To Govern Better" books and get going.

Unfortunately, no. Some of the residual shit left over from the Bush years was finally getting cleaned up around the time Obama was leaving office. Unbreaking things takes time. Parts of the government will be hurting for at least a decade after Trump and Co are gone.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 7:50 AM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

From the Vox article:

In their research, Hahl et al. surveyed 402 Americans about one of Trump’s most notoriously false statements: that global warming is a hoax invented by China to hurt the US economy. Interestingly, only a handful of Trump supporters in the sample (5.8 percent) described the statement as “highly true.” Most (68.8) described it as “highly false.”

But this didn’t cause them to conclude that Trump was a liar. Instead, they justified the lying as part of Trump’s populist appeal.

“Trump voters were significantly more likely to justify the lie as a form of symbolic protest,” the researchers wrote. They were “much more likely to think the statement ‘was his way of challenging the elite establishment’ than to see the statement as true.”

This is generally unsurprising, except for the part where respondants admit the claim was false. I would have thought that insisting "No, it's really totally true" would be part of the lying-is-a-protest mindset. But apparently there are contexts in which the kayfabe is temporarily dropped. (Or this poll/study was done after Trump had lied about saying it.)

Now we're seeing that again, with the more ~sophisticated~ conservatives arguing that Kavanaugh committed a kind of justifiable perjury. One could almost buy a perjury-trap agurment for his more emotional and evasive I'm-rubber-you're-glue responses (they still disqualify him from the Court). But so many of his false or extremely-questionable claims were clearly rehearsed lies.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:50 AM on October 2, 2018 [13 favorites]

I'd like to think that the frog is (probably) safe, but something occurred to me.

Is the act (non-act?) of a Justice not participating in the decision of a case for which they weren't present for the hearing based on a rule, or simply tradition? Because if there's no hard and fast rule, I don't think we can assume Kavanaugh will follow the tradition.
posted by Tabitha Someday at 7:53 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

It's just tradition, although I'm not certain to what extent it's up to the individual Justice or if it's ultimately controlled by the Chief Justice.
posted by jedicus at 7:55 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

The DOJ's New Net Neutrality Lawsuit Is A Giant Middle Finger To State Rights, Consumers, Competition & The Democratic Process

msalt: Unfortunately, this is one of the rare administration lawsuits that might have some merit. Telecommunications policy is one of those areas (like immigration enforcement) that are properly federal, because state borders don't have any real significance in these sectors. Electronic signals don't stop at borders.

Except, as noted in Jon Brodkin's round-up for on the topic for Ars Technica,

"The legal argument for preemption is fatally flawed: the FCC claims that it has no authority to regulate broadband Internet service," attorney Andrew Schwartzman, who represents the Benton Foundation in the case against the FCC, said in a statement responding to the DOJ lawsuit. "Courts have consistently held that when the federal government lacks authority to regulate, it cannot preempt states from regulating."

Emphasis mine, because this is a glorious self-goal. Under Ajit Pai and Trump, FCC their hands up and say "we don't regulate ISPs!" You can't have your cake and eat it, too.

Also, I'm looking forward to hearing how DOJ's arguement plays out in court:

"Because its regulatory approach directly conflicts with the FCC's, SB-822 inflicts irreparable harm on both the United States as well as the public interest more generally," the DOJ told the court. "As this Court recently noted, '[t]he United States suffers injury when its valid laws in a domain of federal authority are undermined by impermissible state regulations,' and '[f]rustration of federal statutes and prerogatives are not in the public interest.'"

Emphasis mine, because the harm is from ... enforcing net neutrality in a way that would by default enforce the same regulations for most of the country. Which would actually be a good thing, for consumers at least.

Again, Trump's team is defending the poor, helpless international business interests, instead of the people.
posted by filthy light thief at 7:58 AM on October 2, 2018 [40 favorites]

The Republican, pro-sexual assault, party infuriating whining about "moving the goalposts" has already driven me up the wall this morning. The point of a credible investigation is in part to see whether the goal posts need to be moved. Every piece of this puzzle that has been revealed suggests a larger and larger valid field of inquiry in Kavanaugh's characterization of his drinking and past behavior.

Senator,

Brett Kavanaugh's college associate Chad Ludington, who has shared his recollection of an incident involving Brett Kavanaugh and Chris Dudley allegedly assaulting a man in a bar with drinks. Although no arests were made, We the People deserve a full accounting of why Kavanaugh mischaracterized his college drinking habits during his sworn Senate testimony.

We the People also deserve a full accounting of why there are credible reports that Brett Kavanaugh was attempting to contact Deborah Ramirez's friends before the Meyer and Farrow New Yorker story was published. He gave sworn testimony that he had not heard of the allegation until the New Yorker story.

I insist on:

* A full investigation into the drunken bar fight from 1985
* A full investigation into Kavanaugh's communications with Deborah Ramirez's friends and associates
* A delay on a confirmation vote on Kavanaugh until a complete, thorough, non-partisan, independent investigation can establish the facts of the situation

[For Democracts: Brett Kavanaugh's tantrum in front of the Judiciary Committee, as well as his seemingly deliberately inaccurate testimony are an automatic disqualifier as for a judge on any US federal court, much less the Supreme Court. Kavanaugh must be fully investigated and likely impeached from his current life-time appointment. He lacks the character and temperment of a qualified federal judge.]

[For Republicans: Failure to enforce the requirements of a thorough, independent and non-partisan investigation will mean that I will donate to your opponents, campaign against you, and forever characterize you a supporter of sexual assault, not a supporter of sexual assault victims.]

Sincerely,
[your name]

posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 8:16 AM on October 2, 2018 [23 favorites]

peeedro: "Alex Trebek moderated a gubernatorial debate in Pennsylvania. It didn’t go well "

What is, "A poorly thought out stunt?"
posted by Chrysostom at 8:17 AM on October 2, 2018 [49 favorites]

Emphasis mine, because this is a glorious self-goal.

Back when we operated under the rule of law this would have been an own-goal. We don't operate under the rule of law anymore. We operate under Republican rule. SCOTUS will side with the FCC here.
posted by dirigibleman at 8:28 AM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

SCOTUS needs a majority, and currently they're split down the middle.

But the FCC is definitely partisan (hacks): Cities Are Teaming Up to Offer Broadband, and the FCC Is Mad (Susan Crawford for Wired, Sept. 27, 2018)

Earlier this year, the South Bay Cities Council of Governments decided that addressing the region's internet access problems, starting with city buildings and moving out from there to businesses, was a shared economic development priority. The SBCCOG asked for bids for a regional fiber-optic loop that would connect all the city halls in the region to one another as well as to two major internet points of presence (POPs). Having all the cities' traffic aggregated together would give the region bargaining power and potentially wholesale prices through those redundant POPs. (Having redundant POPs is also important; you want to make sure that no one provider can hold your traffic ransom when it's on its way out of town.)

Every one of the 16 city councils involved is supportive; they understand that building a huge regional backbone will eventually lead to cascading effects on consumer prices, and that being able to plow city cost savings into business connections—as Santa Monica did years ago—will attract new industries to their cities. And that will help them keep their citizens well employed.

[Former CIO of the City of Santa Monica, Jory] Wolf says the RFP offered by the region has attracted a slew of strong bidders, and that it's likely the region will end up with several providers operating the regional fiber loop. He also says the cities in the region are working together in a new way, bringing their public works teams together for monthly meetings. But, he says, for regions hoping to follow this playbook, "the FCC is going to put a sponge" on all that activity, "soak it all up, and take it away."

He’s right. Step by step, the FCC is working to undermine cities' abilities to create municipal fiber networks of any size, while doing everything it can to keep the status quo in place. One of the goals of the FCC’s reversal of net neutrality earlier this year (PDF) was to broadly block local government from having anything to do with internet access. The commission effectively said it was blocking in advance any local regulatory efforts that could be viewed as in conflict with the FCC’s hands-off approach.

One nation, under new corporate ownership, at least until January 2019 or 2021.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:40 AM on October 2, 2018 [24 favorites]

Holy shit, if that thread is to be believed Judge’s deleted YouTube channel was apparently a bunch of creepy short videos of women in swimsuits or underwear passed out or sleeping on top of beds with weird conspiracy references interwoven.

I saw this a few days ago along with I think an Instagram account, but it wasn't clear to me it was real & not a stunt page put together to smear him so I left it alone. It's not exclusively a tactic of the Right, you know.
posted by scalefree at 8:45 AM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Scale free, one of the videos I downloaded, from the YouTube page called mark judge, has mark judge in frame for the entire video.
posted by Yowser at 8:49 AM on October 2, 2018 [23 favorites]

By Cristian Farias for New York magazine:
Rachel Mitchell's Kavanaugh Report Just Tells Republicans What They Want to Hear

I braved the comments and found this gem:

Did you not expect Aunt Lydia to take the Commanders' side?

posted by virago at 8:49 AM on October 2, 2018 [61 favorites]

Multiple GOP senators refuse to acknowledge or shake hands with sexual assault survivors. I particularly like the bit where Mitch McConnell ignores the women to shake hands with another man. That's lovely.
posted by suelac at 9:02 AM on October 2, 2018 [65 favorites]

its even worse, the headline to the article suelac linked:

Republican Senator Hides in Men’s Bathroom When Confronted by Sexual-Assault Survivors
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 9:16 AM on October 2, 2018 [30 favorites]

Republican Senator Hides in Men’s Bathroom When Confronted by Sexual-Assault Survivors

I hope they followed him in there.
posted by elsietheeel at 9:18 AM on October 2, 2018 [29 favorites]

The last paragraph of that article is deep anger-inducing:

When two sexual-assault survivors confronted Republican senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, he said, “I know this is enjoyable to y’all.” “It is not enjoyable,” Tracey Corder, the director of Racial Justice at the Center for Popular Democracy, responded. “It is not fun for us to tell our stories.”

posted by erisfree at 9:19 AM on October 2, 2018 [94 favorites]

Ralph Nader discusses his book, "To The Ramparts", at Politics and Prose on 9/23/18
A good listen.
posted by readery at 9:22 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

One of the wild things about just how MUCH news there is is how many things slip between the cracks. I caught the Mark Judge thing before the original account was deleted, and it kills me that we're only just catching up to that story as a country.

It looks like the archive that somebody set up post-deletion has been taken down, or at least hasn't been indexed well by Google. Here's a snippet, for the curious. They were all like this. And yes, Alec Baldwin apparently tweeted Judge asking to appear in one of them(???).
posted by rorgy at 9:23 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

And here's a bunch more.

It's really creepy shit.
posted by rorgy at 9:25 AM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

One of the more brazen comments about survivors confronting legislators was from Rich Lowry, who said that this sort of angry bullying reminds him of what's going on at Yale with all the angry bullying by left-wing students, and it is a dangerous way for political decisions to be made.

I was struck by the lack of self-reflection required to not realize how well his comment applied to Kavanaugh.
posted by clawsoon at 9:26 AM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

witchen: and how liberals can justify breaking into Kavanaugh's home and threatening his family.

I don't know if this is true, but I wouldn't be surprised. We have plenty of idiots on our side, too, whether we like it our not. Our media focuses on their idiots, and their media focuses on our idiots. It's easy to tell which media bubble a person is in by which idiots they know about.
posted by clawsoon at 9:30 AM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Eliot Cohen writing in The Atlantic: The Republican Party Abandons Conservatism

Includes these laffs:
"The conservative is warier than her liberal counterpart about the darker impulses and desires that lurk in men and women, more doubtful of their perfectibility, skeptical of and opposed to the engineering of individual souls, and more inclined to celebrate freedom moderated by law, custom, education, and culture. She knows that power tends to corrupt, and likes to see it checked and divided.*"

*=Unless you're a corporation, Christian church, employer, massive multinational media conglomerate, polluter, wealthy white male, property-owner, fossil fuel company, anti-democratic lobbying organization and so on and so on. This is pure kayfabe, right?

"There has always been a dark side to American conservatism, much of it originating in the antebellum curse of a society, large parts of which favored slavery and the extermination of America’s native population, the exclusion of immigrants from American life, and discrimination against Catholics and Jews. Many of us had hoped that the civil-rights achievements of the mid-20th century (in which Republicans were indispensable partners), changing social norms regarding women, and rising levels of education had eliminated the germs that produced secession, lynching, and Indian massacres. Instead, those microbes simply went into dormancy, and now, in the presence of Trump, erupt again like plague buboes—bitter, potent, and vile."

That's some incredible whitewashing. No, dude, the calls are coming from inside the house. They have been since the 60s.

The TL;DR is that his main beef with Republicans now is that they want Blackout Brett to allow the Executive Branch to seize more power for itself, which is like, bad because liberals use the government to do stuff (like limit the power of wealthy individuals, business interests, and the politicians they've bought off).
posted by Kitty Stardust at 9:32 AM on October 2, 2018 [13 favorites]

Paul Manafort met Monday with special counsel Robert Mueller’s office as part of his cooperation agreement in the special counsel’s investigation into Russia interference in the 2016 presidential election.

In other Special Counsel news, the FT reports, Money Laundering Expert to Leave Robert Mueller Team—departure comes after Paul Manafort avoided second trial with guilty plea

"Kyle Freeny, a trial attorney seconded to Mr Mueller’s investigation last year, will rejoin the justice department’s money laundering and asset recovery section after concluding her detail to the special counsel’s office in mid-October, said Peter Carr, a spokesperson for Mr Mueller."
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:37 AM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

Here's the first mention of threats against Kavanaugh's family I could find upon a cursory search. It, uh, might bear noting that the article also cites many abusive phone calls and death threats against Ford, including note of her being forced out of her house; by contrast, Kavanaugh's wife reports open investigations for the family's safety (according to CNN) and possibly an exhortation for Kavanaugh to commit suicide (via WSJ in a link I can't currently read). All of these are posted c. 9/20, so they've been around for a couple of weeks. Note that Ford is mentioned in at least two of the three articles as being in hiding and that Senator Collins has also reported receiving a number of graphic threats, including one that promised to rape a young female staffer.

I am certainly in favor of investigating all of these threats, but I note that every single one of them appear to be directed primarily at women--no one, for example, seems to be tracking down Ford's husband to send her hateful mail in the same way that Kavanaugh's wife reports.
posted by sciatrix at 9:40 AM on October 2, 2018 [24 favorites]

Interesting gem in this WaPo story, Experts question GOP prosecutor’s memo on Christine Blasey Ford:

The [Senate Judiciary Committee] staff interviewed about 20 potential counsels for Mitchell’s position, according to a Republican official briefed on the hiring process, before settling on the Maricopa County prosecutor.

They had time to interview twenty "independent" counsels for their hatchet job against Blasey Ford, but no time to call any other witnesses. Strange, that. Also, a Judiciary Committee spokesperson confirmed that Mitchell was paid for her work but declined to say how much.
posted by peeedro at 9:46 AM on October 2, 2018 [42 favorites]

So you know how in the wake of Pizzagate, we knew — we *knew* — that it was an act of overt projection on the part of the right, we just didn't know the specifics? This contextually nauseating Mark Judge...material feels like further confirmation of that supposition.

These guys are just obsessed with dominance, with expressing their physical power and control over someone rendered helpless to resist, and for whatever reason are unable to express it as a consensual kink like anyone normal would. They're profoundly broken human beings, but because they've simultaneously been encouraged to see themselves as the elite, surrounded themselves with others comparably broken, and finally enmeshed themselves with those others in a deeply sick hierarchical society, they think their brokenness is the default condition of humanity and they see it everywhere.

Well, I've got news for them: It is not everywhere. You have to be pretty fractured to take genuine pleasure in the actual suffering of another. And although that is certainly a mode of being that our normative childrearing practices and family dynamics and all the other microfascisms we tolerate conduce to, thank all the gods below it is by no means where all of us wind up.

Measured against the long sweep of history, in fact, I have to believe that we've done better these past few decades. We clearly have a long, long, too long a way to go, but I don't think it's ridiculous to believe in the dawning of a day that children learn something other than dominance and cruelty and hierarchy from their environment, that none of them ever again grows up to be a Brett Kavanaugh or a Mark Judge or a Donald Trump.
posted by adamgreenfield at 9:51 AM on October 2, 2018 [58 favorites]

adamgreenfield: So you know how in the wake of Pizzagate, we knew — we *knew* — that it was an act of overt projection on the part of the right, we just didn't know the specifics? This contextually nauseating Mark Judge...material feels like further confirmation of that supposition.

Of course, I've seen it argued (I think on the Reddit page linked above) that calling these videos evidence of Judge being a serial sexual assaulter is a kind of lefty pizzagate, in the sense that it's wholly about implications and symbolism. In other words, yes Mark Judge seems like a horrible human, but these videos shouldn't prompt any assumptions, or else we're as bad as the other side.

The obvious difference is that you need a hell of a lot less twine and fewer thumbtacks. Pizzagate relies on a demented translation of "pizza" to "children", whereas perceiving the Mark Judge videos as damning means just viewing them for what they appear to be.

(Also, if you really wanted to make the Clintons look sketchy when it comes to child sex abuse, it would way make more sense to harp on Bill's past friendship with Jeffrey Epstein. If I wanted to wear a tinfoil hat over my tinfoil hat, I'd call that the real purpose of pizzagate.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 10:08 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Michael Lewis is on Fresh Air today, on The Fifth Risk, Trump transition narrative.
posted by Harry Caul at 10:09 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

And here's a bunch more.

Looks like it all got DMCA'd.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:10 AM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

Unbreaking things takes time.

So, the sooner you can actually start after taking office and the more prepared you are for the task ahead, the better.

It will still take time, but it'll help if you have a Haynes Manual On How To Government that tells you where to put the oil in and which bolts hold what part to the frame.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:12 AM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

Michael Lewis is on Fresh Air today, on The Fifth Risk, Trump transition narrative.

I've been reading this book as he published excerpts over the last year, about the transition at Dept of Ag, and the Dept of Energy. So I grabbed it as this month's Audible purchase.

I also grabbed Rebecca Traister's Good and Mad, which was also released today. FYI, Chris Hayes has a long interview with Traister today on his podcast Why Is This Happening, and it's pretty great.

Another podcast rec: Dahlia Lithwick's Amicus podcast had a special panel last weekend at the Texas Tribune festival in Austin. A bunch of SCOTUS geeks got on stage and talked about the Court, and the balance on the Court, and the Kavanaugh hearings, and all that. It was really good and I recommend it. It even has a few tiny spots of optimism (although John Roberts' fear of letting the Court fall into disrepute is a thin twig indeed).
posted by suelac at 10:14 AM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]

In other words, yes Mark Judge seems like a horrible human, but these videos shouldn't prompt any assumptions, or else we're as bad as the other side.

Not that I think you are either, but I'm 100% not here for the bothsidesism.

The videos, in context, are merely probative, and not properly dispositive, yes. In that context, however, they sure do suggest something about what makes Mark Judge tick. And I think most reasonable people would construe his sudden deletion thereof as an acknowledgment of that on his part.
posted by adamgreenfield at 10:15 AM on October 2, 2018 [35 favorites]

Multiple GOP senators refuse to acknowledge or shake hands with sexual assault survivors. I particularly like the bit where Mitch McConnell ignores the women to shake hands with another man. That's lovely.

I LOVE THESE WOMEN who are confronting these senators. Their willingness to be so incredibly brave forces these privileged isolated arrogant men to deal with what their decisions do to real people. Thank you so much to these incredible women. You are doing a service for all of us.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:16 AM on October 2, 2018 [88 favorites]

And while discussing threats against Ford/Kavanaugh, remember Trump's 'Be Careful' Tweet Prompts Calls of Security for Maxine Waters.

(also, is anyone looking out for Chad? his presser seemed a little revealing, home-wise)
posted by armacy at 10:22 AM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

In a survey of various Trump properties' bottom lines, Forbes examines how Trump is trying—and failing—to get rich off his presidency

By refusing to divest, Trump raised an unprecedented question: How would the most divisive presidency in modern American history affect a company built on the president’s persona? Forbes has been working to answer that question since the moment Trump got elected, interviewing nearly 200 colleagues, partners and industry observers. While the experiment continues to unfold, in real time, the early results are in. Much as he’s trying—and he’s definitely trying—Donald Trump is not getting richer off the presidency. Just the opposite. His net worth, by our calculation, has dropped from $4.5 billion in 2015 to $3.1 billion the last two years, knocking the president 138 spots lower on the latest The Forbes 400 (which will be published in full tomorrow).

[...]Trump’s mixture of politics and business has proved to be a net loser for him so far. In further polarizing the country, he has also further polarized his business—to the tune of an estimated $200 million hit against his net worth.[...]

Trump’s business has some bright spots. A few blocks from the White House, at the Trump International Hotel, Trump fans hobnob with cable news stars and Cabinet secretaries. The place turned a $2 million profit in the first four months of 2017, far exceeding the Trump Organization’s expectations. A chunk of that money comes from various GOP organizations, which have pumped more than $1.3 million into the hotel since it opened in fall 2016, according to Federal Election Commission data. Despite what seems a violation of the Constitution’s emoluments clause, designed to keep presidents free from foreign financial interest, the governments of other nations are welcome too. Everyone from Kuwaiti officials to the prime minister of Malaysia has reportedly spent money there. And lobbyists working for Saudi Arabia disclosed that they ran up a $270,000 tab in just six months.

Trump has obviously benefited from the GOP's tax breaks for the wealthy, but the Forbes reporters also point out indirect benefits from his administration's policies:

Other policies, which went into effect with far less fanfare, may also bolster his fortune. Take tariffs. Higher steel and aluminum prices make it more expensive for developers to build. For someone like Trump, who owns buildings but hasn’t done much construction recently, that ­raises the barrier to entry for competitors. His immigration policies, which appear to be raising the cost of construction labor, could have a similar effect. Those two factors are “very favorable to a guy who owns hard assets,” says Dave Rodgers, a real estate analyst at financial firm Baird.

The emoluments lawsuit can't go to trial soon enough, but that's just the most obvious case of Trump's corrupt self-enrichment.
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:29 AM on October 2, 2018 [47 favorites]

An order to divest over emoluments seems likely to spark a real "let him enforce his order" moment from Trump, even if coming from SCOTUS.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:33 AM on October 2, 2018 [18 favorites]

On September 25, Republican staffers interviewed Kavanaugh under oath about his reaction to the New Yorker story about the accusations from Ramirez. Kavanaugh says:

"They couldn't - the New York Times couldn't corroborate this story and found that she was calling around to classmates trying to see if they remembered it. And I, at least -- and I, myself, heard about that, that she was doing that. And you know, that just strikes me as, you know, what is going on here? When someone is calling around to try to refresh other people, is that what's going on? What's going on with that? That doesn't sound -- that doesn't sound good to me. It doesn't sound fair. It doesn't sound proper. It sounds like an orchestrated hit to take me out. That's what it sounds like.

This is serious stuff, and they're -- you know, they’re calling around to other people either to refresh them, or I don't know what's going on in those conversations

It's not appropriate for people to be dredging up uncorroborated stories and trying to refresh other people's recollections."


According to NBC News, it was Kavanaugh himself and his lawyers who were calling friends regarding Ramirez even before the allegation became public. It was Kavanaugh who was trying to "refresh their memories" which according to Kavanaugh "doesn't sound fair", "doesn't sound proper", "is not appropriate".

Keep in mind that this is Kavanaugh's interview under oath, lying once again.

With all Republicans, it's Trump's mirror. You just have to listen to what they accuse others of and that's a clue to what they themselves are doing in secret.
posted by JackFlash at 10:37 AM on October 2, 2018 [83 favorites]

I'm having a rough work day anyway, and can somebody help me parse this fucktastic marriage announcement? So UN diplomats can't bring their domestic partners here unless they're married? Is it possible for them to get married in the US? Or is this really "you have to be married and if your home country doesn't allow that I guess you're fucked?"
posted by nakedmolerats at 10:44 AM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

In the cloud of toxic dust thrown up by the Kavanaugh hearings last week, two new Trump initiatives slipped by with less notice than they deserve. Both are ugly, stupid – and they are linked, though in ways not immediately apparent.
The Trump administration knows the planet is going to boil. It doesn't care.
posted by adamvasco at 10:45 AM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

Is it possible for them to get married in the US? Or is this really "you have to be married and if your home country doesn't allow that I guess you're fucked?"

It is possible for them to get married in the US, but it's still "if marrying your same-gender partner in the US would totally fuck up your life in your home country, sucks to be you."
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:49 AM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

h/t Josh's place:

I've been losing sleep over this appointment, and the more I think about it, the more unsettled I become. It's not whether he assaulted the woman...I can't divine the truth, no matter how sympathetic the story. What's bothering me is privilege. When I was a kid, I didn't know I was poor, or that there was limitless opportunity out there. Which was good, because many doors were already closed to me. But these kids drank their way through high school, partied, and spent weeks on the beach. Yet they're "top" students at exclusive schools, went to Ivy League colleges, graduated with honors, and now this choice example is interviewing for the Supreme Court. Not merely interviewing, but "winning" by delivering a wicked tongue lashing to the very senators who are questioning him. Nobody is so smart that they can burn so many candles and still end up whole, without a lot of help from daddy, important friends and a culture of privilege. As I rerun my life in my mind, there are no possible changes I could have ever made which would have landed me in a similar situation. And no way my humble status would ever allow me to publicly address a Senator with so much contempt (and not be charged with contempt). It's not envy keeping me awake: I wouldn't change places in a thousand thousand lifetimes. It's that the injustice of these dissolutes being in a position to exert great influence on our lives is humiliating in an unexpectedly personal way.

I went to my local version of Georgetown Prep (Jesuit high school). I was one of the poor kids that had to do work-study (janitorial work after school and on weekends) to pay a significant part of my tuition. I saw these Kavanaugh types. They were in my classes but, almost to a one, they were immiscible with us squares.

(recently I decided to forego my reunion, having realized i really didn't have anything to say to most of the people that would be there. Partly in light of seeing this entitled prick sliding down the greased chute to a lifetime appointment.)
posted by notsnot at 10:58 AM on October 2, 2018 [64 favorites]

These guys are just obsessed with dominance, with expressing their physical power and control over someone rendered helpless to resist, and for whatever reason are unable to express it as a consensual kink like anyone normal would. They're profoundly broken human beings ...

If Mark Judge was poorer and less connected, he'd be a twitter troll; and if he was richer and more connected, he'd be Steve Bannon. It's a spectrum.

As Judge's brother, Michael described him in 1997:

"And that’s it, that’s the real problem—not alcoholism or a lousy childhood or an abusive father. Mark is a solipsist: spoiled as a child, gazing always inward, unable to recognize any pain but his own. That is why he could not come to understand or forgive my father, in the way that all adult sons must eventually understand and forgive. Mark never left home long enough to see my father not as the ogre snoring in the other room but as a human being."

This Mediamatters collection of links to pieces by and about Judge demonstrates that he is such a head-shakingly stereotypical fedora-tipper, that I'd be surprised to learn that he wasn't a gamergater. He seems to have spent his career, in part, at least, as a pen-for-hire for the right-wing outrage industry.
posted by octobersurprise at 10:59 AM on October 2, 2018 [33 favorites]

> "The conservative is warier than her liberal counterpart about the darker impulses and desires that lurk in men and women, more doubtful of their perfectibility, skeptical of and opposed to the engineering of individual souls, and more inclined to celebrate freedom moderated by law, custom, education, and culture.

I mean, that is literally a self-refuting sentence.
posted by klarck at 11:01 AM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

No, dude, the calls are coming from inside the house. They have been since the 60s.

More like the 1780s. Ever since the Articles of Confederation there's been a tension between the desire/need for a strong, functional federal government and the idea that states should be sovereign with the power to pass their own laws that accede to no higher authority. There were compromises made to get the Constitution ratified, and subsequently a number of states (mostly southern) have chafed at the idea that the federal government and United States Supreme Court apply to them. The Nullification Crisis was ostensibly over tariffs, but its primary instigator was John C. Calhoun, whose U.S. Senate biography says:

A staunch defender of the institution of slavery, Calhoun was the Senate's most prominent states' rights advocate, and his doctrine of nullification professed that individual states had a right to reject federal policies that they deemed unconstitutional.

Slavery (and associated racism) is inseparable from the other arguments for nullification.

There is a similar tension over land use going back to the creation of the U.S. Forest Service under the leadership of Gifford Pinchot. He's credited as there as "the 'father' of American conservation" but that's necessarily in conflict with his philosophy of the "greatest good for the greatest number." In practice what that philosophy meant was that he was often biased towards resource extraction, and he supported projects that other environmentalists opposed:

Pinchot clashed with other leaders of the environmental movement, including John Muir, in the debate over the damming of the Hetch Hetchy Valley in Yosemite National Park. Although the Hetch Hetchy was a place of great beauty, Pinchot’s personal priorities lay in providing resources to a growing citizenry. Consequently, he disagreed with Muir about the ethics of damming the valley and supported the creation of a water reservoir.

Both these tensions are alive and (un)well in the 21st century, with Republican efforts to weaken the courts' ability to overturn unconstitutional laws continuing the same shit that goes back to the fight over "states' rights" that was part of the original battle over the nature of a federal government. Racist legislators in multiple states who are doing everything they can to disenfranchise black voters are relegislating laws they don't like that go back to the Civil War. In some ways I don't think the Civil War ever ended. It just became a cold war.

And on the land use side, arguments about, say, the best use of the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve, the size and land use restrictions on Bears Ears National Monument, or the Trump administration's numerous assaults on clean air and water represent the "profit over all others" motives of those who favor resource extraction. That gets some buy-in from various state lawmakers in the west who think they stand to gain if federal lands are deaccessioned or if use restrictions are lifted, so there's another coalition that broadly supports the idea of nullifying federal law or control if they don't like it or can't profit from it.

These fights go back a lot further than 50 years. They're foundational.
posted by fedward at 11:02 AM on October 2, 2018 [29 favorites]

I've been losing sleep over this appointment, and the more I think about it, the more unsettled I become. It's not whether he assaulted the woman...I can't divine the truth, no matter how sympathetic the story.

FUCK THIS GUY AND EVERYONE LIKE HIM.

These men are not allies. We’ll take their help if it keeps Kavanaugh off the court. But they’re not friends, and they’re not allies, and we know they don’t have our backs. They’re the next enemy.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:04 AM on October 2, 2018 [52 favorites]

This morning we were talking about the Trump nominating Kavanaugh and why the nom’ hasn’t been withdrawn. Why Kav in the first place? There are plenty of reasonable suppositions floating around the most plausible I’ve heard being Kennedy made it a ‘condition’ of his retiring, that Kav (who clerked for him) would get the nod.
Seems legit, but why would Kennedy offer up a guy he had to know was going to cause such a hullabaloo?

If you go back to basics you remember that Trump ruins everything - and in a ‘deal’ he has to ruin the other side. So, he makes a deal with the evangelicals, “you vote for me, I’ll get you your supremes.” They vote for him and Kennedy retires (is eased out) and Trump is provided with a list of twenty odd, totally acceptable to the federalist society (read:Right-as-all-getout) jurists and he gets a little background on them and smells, in Kavanaugh, his chance. He meets Kavanaugh and can tell this is his guy. A fellow pussy-grabber. Trump thinks to himself, “They want me to pick one of their judges? You betcha, this is the guy - this guy who is going to fuck it all up for them, this one guy who has the potential to poop the bed like a black-out drunk frat boy in the wee wee hours? Oh baby is he the one and fuck those pushy, sanctimonious jerks.”

Because Trump ruins everything. It’s what he does best. He picked the worst jurist they presented him with and he’s letting him dangle and everyone who backs him, dangle with him. And he’s not doing a thing, “he’s your guy, I said give me a list, you gave me a list. Not my fault.”

Sadly, im not enjoying it all half as much as I thought I would, watching Trump compulsively fuck his ‘partners.’ He’s ruined even that.
posted by From Bklyn at 11:08 AM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Because Trump ruins everything. It’s what he does best. He picked the worst jurist they presented him with

I totally agree with that assessment and preamble to it because I have thought all along:

Trump picked the worst jurist they presented him with because Kavanaugh is exactly like Trump and Trump can spot himself a mile away.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:14 AM on October 2, 2018 [32 favorites]

Republican senator Bob Corker of Tennessee, he said, “I know this is enjoyable to y’all.”

Once again, Republicans let us know exactly who they are, unintentionally, but clearly. He assumes that because he is deeply uncomfortable, the women must be enjoying themselves. Let that sink in.
posted by Mental Wimp at 11:16 AM on October 2, 2018 [104 favorites]

Because Trump ruins everything. It’s what he does best. He picked the worst jurist they presented him with

This is a very common corporate tactic for corporations that are skirting the law in some way. You hire the least qualified person you can find, because then you can control them and they are just so grateful for the job. You rule everything and the hiree is just a proxy.
posted by nanook at 11:21 AM on October 2, 2018 [15 favorites]

They vote for him and Kennedy retires (is eased out) and Trump is provided with a list of twenty odd, totally acceptable to the federalist society (read:Right-as-all-getout) jurists and he gets a little background on them and smells, in Kavanaugh, his chance.

Kavanaugh wasn't on Trump's original list, so nominating him is another broken campaign promise. Trump almost certainly picked Kavanaugh because of his devotion to presidential power
posted by kirkaracha at 11:24 AM on October 2, 2018 [27 favorites]

Picking Kavanaugh isn't necessarily screwing over the evangelical base in any way whatsoever. The misogyny is a bonus. For them, a jurist overturning Roe who probably assaulted a lot of women is preferable to one who probably didn't. Gorsuch was okay; Kavanaugh is now a saint in their ersatz relgion.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 11:25 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Once again, Republicans let us know exactly who they are, unintentionally, but clearly. He assumes that because he is deeply uncomfortable, the women must be enjoying themselves. Let that sink in.

I think he's not as much uncomfortable, but in his view these women harassing him are nothing more than political actors. The idea that their concerns might be sincere and heartfelt just isn't even on the table.

Because that's how he acts. As nothing more than a political actor. Without sincerity or heartfelt beliefs.

Granny Weatherwax used to say, "sin ... is when you treat people as things." Corker is a sinner.
posted by mikelieman at 11:26 AM on October 2, 2018 [24 favorites]

Also, in reference to my thesis (These fights go back a lot further than 50 years. They're foundational.) I want to go back to something sotonohito said yesterday:

We're at the end of an era, and it remains to be seen what the next era will be like. I do know that we'll have to struggle to get a good, or even mildly tolerable, future out of the change. The forces of wealth, bigotry, and authoritarianism are working overtime these days, and winning quite a few of the contests. So far that's been sub-world war level, and often not war at all.

What's been bouncing around my head since 2016 is the question of whether the union can and should be saved. Trump's electoral victory showed the emerging strength of "fuck you, I've got mine" as a political platform. It's particularly interesting and worrisome because of how much the "fuck you" is explicit (and Kavanaugh is certainly an example of that), and because so much of the support for it comes from people who are only going to get fucked by it. When people only understand government as a thing that keeps them from doing what they want to the most extreme limit possible, that's about as anti-federal as you can get.

The cynicism of, say, Mitch McConnell is in using the strength of the federal system to weaken it from the inside. The anti-federalists may have already weakened the union to the point it's not doing its job anyway, and the Democratic Party hasn't really been very effective at stopping that. It's not really good at being an opposition party, and nothing else has risen up into that position. If the union can't be saved, and I'm not sure it can, I worry about the ability of, well, effete intellectuals (such as myself) to take the necessary steps to create a new, more functional one.
posted by fedward at 11:32 AM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

Jason Kander just dropped out of the Kansas City mayoral election citing a need to focus on treatment for his PTSD.
posted by cmfletcher at 11:32 AM on October 2, 2018 [21 favorites]

Military Times, Defense Secretary Mattis and the Navy’s top officer targeted in suspected ricin mail attack at Pentagon

At least two packages mailed to the Pentagon this week are believed to contain the poison ricin, and the FBI is now investigating them, the Pentagon said Tuesday.

The packages were addressed to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson, a defense official said on the condition of not being named. The packages triggered alarms Monday as they were undergoing security screening at an off-site mail processing center.

“It’s suspected to be ricin,” said Pentagon spokesman Chris Sherwood.

WHAT THE EVERLOVING FUCK?

In addition, Sen. Cruz's campaign office was evacuated after they received mail with a "white powdery substance." The fire department said tests for hazardous materials were negative.
posted by zachlipton at 11:34 AM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

mikelieman Exactly. It goes with the way the people on the right keep talking about "virtue signaling".

To them there's no such thing as virtue. Not really. So anyone who appears virtuous, or makes an argument from virtue must in their minds be doing it for no reason but to display virtue for some nefarious end. It is impossible for them to conceive of a white man who actually thinks that white privilege, and male privilege, are things. Thus any white man who discusses or acknowledges those things must be desperately trying to garner favor from some group by "virtue signaling".

It's like how, after some white male celebrity or other is caught in some moment of distress and screaming bigoted insults and some other white male celebrity or commentator feels moved to observe that we need to be understanding because "we've all" said or done similar things ourselves, and thus its hypocritical to come down on Mel Gibson, or Michael Richards, or whoever for being caught on tape saying what "we've all" said in private. The idea of a white man who doesn't privately express racism in the most awful terms possible is just alien to their way of thinking. It's literally inconceivable.

So here's Corker, a man who is mostly motivated by political calculation blithely assuming that the women confronting him over Kavanaugh are, like him, just cold bloodedly calculating that they have an advantage over him and can exploit it. Therefore they must be enjoying themselves, because exercising advantage over others is pleasurable to him.
posted by sotonohito at 11:35 AM on October 2, 2018 [42 favorites]

Mod note: Folks, let's not go down the well-trod roads of "probably civil war is inevitable" or "ugh these fuckers, let's look deep into their souls" - let's try to keep the signal high in here, focusing on updates on actual current events,
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:37 AM on October 2, 2018 [15 favorites]

cmfletcher: "Jason Kander just dropped out of the Kansas City mayoral election citing a need to focus on treatment for his PTSD."

Shit, that's really disappointing. I hope he's able to get himself in a good place.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:46 AM on October 2, 2018 [36 favorites]

"4 members of an alt-right “fight club” charged with inciting a riot in Charlottesville"

The arrestees were Cole Evan White, Benjamin Drake Daley, Michael Paul Miselis, and Thomas Walter Gillen, all from Southern California. According to the charging documents, the four were members of the “Rise Above Movement,” an alt-right “fight club” of sorts, and had taken part in violent attacks on counterprotesters at Charlottesville. The government asserts that the four traveled from California to Virginia “with intent to incite a riot.”

Cole White was the "demonstrator" referred to in this, the greatest of all WaPo headlines:

"Charlottesville white nationalist demonstrator loses job at libertarian hot dog shop"

posted by octobersurprise at 11:51 AM on October 2, 2018 [60 favorites]

McConnell tweaks strategy for Kavanaugh confirmation

The Kentucky Republican is currently planning a move to end debate on the nomination by midweek, forcing a critical procedural vote as early as Friday, which would set up a final vote on Kavanaugh early next week. But that timetable means the FBI investigation must be complete by Wednesday, and that’s where the situation becomes dicey for McConnell. The Senate will not want to vote until the FBI report is completed, according to an agreement reached by undecided senators and GOP leaders.

If the FBI doesn’t meet that Wednesday deadline, McConnell and Senate GOP leaders are likely to wait until the FBI report arrives before moving to end debate and starting the countdown clock on Kavanaugh, if only to avoid alienating the Collins-Murkowski-Flake group, according to GOP senators. That could delay the confirmation since Democrats are likely to use their procedural leverage to string out any Kavanaugh vote as long as they can.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:52 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Broader FBI Probe Into Kavanaugh Still Faces Some Limits, Source Says

...the White House hasn’t asked the FBI to do a full-throttle probe of Kavanaugh’s use of alcohol or whether he intentionally gave false testimony to the Senate committee, the person said. The FBI has also been told to finish the probe by Friday, meaning there are time limits on what agents can do.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:55 AM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Grassley: FBI report on Kavanaugh likely won't be released

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said Tuesday that he doesn’t anticipate the FBI’s final report from its inquiry into Brett Kavanaugh would be made public, adding that such a break from protocol “might actually hurt” the bureau’s ability to conduct such probes.

All 100 senators will have access to the report in a secure setting, but Republicans are worried about breaking precedent by releasing such information, which will be made available before the Senate votes this week on Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, according to GOP leaders.

posted by kirkaracha at 12:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [7 favorites]

Rise Above Movement is just a group of assholes who travel to protests for the opportunity to assault people. Hope they're off the streets awhile.
posted by Pope Guilty at 12:02 PM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

Republicans are worried about breaking precedent...

Is there a Pulitzer for comedy in journalism?
posted by Behemoth at 12:05 PM on October 2, 2018 [70 favorites]

> All 100 senators will have access to the report in a secure setting, but Republicans are worried about breaking precedent by releasing such information, which will be made available before the Senate votes this week on Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination, according to GOP leaders.

Presumably in this case one of the democratic senators will either leak it or read it into the record pentagon papers style?
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 12:06 PM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]

In other Special Counsel news, the FT reports, Money Laundering Expert to Leave Robert Mueller Team—departure comes after Paul Manafort avoided second trial with guilty plea

This worries me a lot. I've been assuming that the Mangled Apricot Hellbeast was up to his wattled neck in the money-laundering business. If Mueller hasn't charged him with that yet, this signals he won't be. I was hoping that that charge would be the easiest, most criminal, and highly disqualifying of all of them and lead to his immediate resignation. Now, I'm hoping he has DJT on even more solid charges, like tax evasion, bribery, and colluding with a foreign state to disrupt the US 2016 election.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:09 PM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

@PeterAlexander: NEW: While Dr. Ford’s legal team has repeatedly reached out to the FBI, the FBI does not currently have plans to interview her.
A source familiar with the matter says the White House feels her testimony last Thursday was sufficient. @GeoffRBennett @JuliaEAinsley

"The White House feels," as if this should be up to them. This is so incredibly pathetic.
posted by zachlipton at 12:10 PM on October 2, 2018 [53 favorites]

Presumably in this case one of the democratic senators will either leak it or read it into the record pentagon papers style?

Sounds more like they will be allowed to look at it in the secure room, but not take it out or take photos.
posted by M-x shell at 12:13 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

So, we know McConnell filed an amicus brief in a case pending before the Supreme court. How is it not possible for us to stop any nomination until that case is heard and decided. McConnell shouldn't be able to pick judges for a case where he has an interest, no? At the very least, he should be recused.

Edit to say, wait it's Grassley who filed? I'm sorry, I should have looked that up first.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 12:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

This worries me a lot. I've been assuming that the Mangled Apricot Hellbeast was up to his wattled neck in the money-laundering business.

we go a little overboard with the speculating and the armchair diagnoses in here.
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:15 PM on October 2, 2018 [7 favorites]

Said Trump: “It is a scary time for young men in America. You can be accused before you prove your innocence.”

Asked if he had a message for young women, Trump said: “Women are doing great.”

I must conclude that there is no god because this buffoon isn't struck with lightning every day, repeatedly.
posted by petebest at 12:17 PM on October 2, 2018 [78 favorites]

JFC - NYT Breaking Investigation:

"President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud, that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents"
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:19 PM on October 2, 2018 [90 favorites]

This worries me a lot. I've been assuming that the Mangled Apricot Hellbeast was up to his wattled neck in the money-laundering business.

I thought it suggested more the opposite: that Mueller's got what he needs to indict Trump for money laundering (including what he got from Manafort) and doesn't need a specialist to look into it.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:19 PM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

I must conclude that there is no god because this buffoon isn't struck with lightning every day, repeatedly.

per the bible, terrible ungodly world leaders are basically God's favorite thing to drop into the sandbox.
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:20 PM on October 2, 2018 [25 favorites]

Sounds more like they will be allowed to look at it in the secure room, but not take it out or take photos.

No doubt as with the intel the GWB WH shared with the Senate in the runup to the Iraq War, nobody will bother to make a visit the room.
posted by notyou at 12:21 PM on October 2, 2018

NYT with a big major feature, Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father: The president has long sold himself as a self-made billionaire, but a Times investigation found that he received at least $413 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real estate empire, much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s.

President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud, that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents, an investigation by The New York Times has found.
...
These maneuvers met with little resistance from the Internal Revenue Service, The Times found. The president’s parents, Fred and Mary Trump, transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate then imposed on gifts and inheritances.

The Trumps paid a total of $52.2 million, or about 5 percent, tax records show.
...
By age 3, Mr. Trump was earning $200,000 a year in today’s dollars from his father’s empire. He was a millionaire by age 8. By the time he was 17, his father had given him part ownership of a 52-unit apartment building. Soon after Mr. Trump graduated from college, he was receiving the equivalent of $1 million a year from his father. The money increased with the years, to more than $5 million annually in his 40s and 50s.

This is a fascinatingly detailed piece of reporting, and I can't help but wonder, not that anything would have mattered, why we're reading it several years into his Presidency rather than during the campaign.

The broader question is that this seems to be based on a giant trove of Fred Trump's financial and tax documents—hundreds of returns and over 100,000 pages of documents—and I'm fascinated to know how that came to be.

This seems like the perfect place to also mention ProPublica's story yesterday on the extent to which we don't enforce the tax laws against rich people anymore: After Budget Cuts, the IRS’ Work Against Tax Cheats Is Facing “Collapse”: After Budget Cuts, the IRS’ Work Against Tax Cheats Is Facing “Collapse.”
posted by zachlipton at 12:21 PM on October 2, 2018 [91 favorites]

In 2016, McConnell Threatened to Frame Pre-Election Intelligence About Russians as a Partisan Attack, New Book Reveals - Matthew Zeitlin, Slate

The book is The Apprentice: Trump, Russia, and the Subversion of American Democracy, by Greg Miller (Wapo Review)

While the broad outlines of this story have been known for a long time, Miller’s account adds a new level of detail to McConnell’s political machinations in the run-up to the election. In a Frontline documentary from November, Miller said that the Obama administration was “so concerned about politicizing intelligence” that aides didn’t want Obama himself to publicly denounce the Russians without the support and buy-in of leaders in Congress—including Republicans.

posted by ZeusHumms at 12:26 PM on October 2, 2018 [27 favorites]

The broader question is that this seems to be based on a giant trove of Fred Trump's financial and tax documents—hundreds of returns and over 100,000 pages of documents—and I'm fascinated to know how that came to be.

Trump Org CFO Allen Weisselberg?
posted by notyou at 12:26 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

If you'd like the carpool lane version (which is itself nearly 2,500 words) of the long story (13,000 words), the Times did that too because they know people don't read and 'tis better to aggregate thyself than be aggregated: 11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth
posted by zachlipton at 12:28 PM on October 2, 2018 [26 favorites]

Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father

Well, I'd like to see ol Donny Trump wriggle his way out of THIS jam!
*Trump wriggles his way out of the jam easily*
Ah! Well. Nevertheless,

In a Frontline documentary from November, Miller said that the Obama administration was “so concerned about politicizing intelligence” that aides didn’t want Obama himself to publicly denounce the Russians without the support and buy-in of leaders in Congress—including Republicans.

Boy am I relieved that US intelligence agencies haven't been politicized. Legacy: secured.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:29 PM on October 2, 2018 [29 favorites]

I thought it suggested more the opposite: that Mueller's got what he needs to indict Trump for money laundering (including what he got from Manafort) and doesn't need a specialist to look into it.

I would also observe that the discovery and analysis of the accounting is a pretty mechanical thing, and there's a non-zero chance that their work for Mueller's team is simply done, and there's nothing else for them unless they're called to testify. No point in revising the report AGAIN...
posted by mikelieman at 12:33 PM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

While the broad outlines of this story have been known for a long time, Miller’s account adds a new level of detail to McConnell’s political machinations in the run-up to the election.

"Political machinations"?! Obama had McConnell briefed on what the Russians were up to, and McConnell not only refused to denounce Russia's attack on our electoral system, but he also threatened to claim publicly that the intelligence he'd just been briefed on didn't exist, and claim any public warning by Obama was just political grandstanding.

I've said it before, but McConnell committed treason on that day.
posted by Gelatin at 12:35 PM on October 2, 2018 [140 favorites]

11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth

Among the Trumps' numerous highly suspect business practices, here's the deal that clearly involves actual, undeniable fraud:

The Trumps created a company that siphoned cash from the empire

The first major component was creating a company called All County Building Supply & Maintenance. On paper, All County was Fred Trump’s purchasing agent, buying everything from boilers to cleaning supplies. But All County was, in fact, a company only on paper, records and interviews show — a vehicle to siphon cash from Fred Trump’s empire by simply marking up purchases already made by his employees. Those millions in markups, effectively untaxed gifts, then flowed to All County’s owners — Donald Trump, his siblings and a cousin.

Lee-Ford Tritt, a leading expert in gift and estate tax law at the University in Florida, said the Trumps’ use of All County was “highly suspicious” and could constitute criminal tax fraud. “It certainly looks like a disguised gift,” he said.

n.b. "According to tax experts, it is unlikely that Mr. Trump would be vulnerable to criminal prosecution for helping his parents evade taxes, because the acts happened too long ago and are past the statute of limitations. There is no time limit, however, on civil fines for tax fraud."
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:43 PM on October 2, 2018 [21 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi Not On Board With Impeaching Brett Kavanaugh

“That would not be my plan,” she added, saying Democrats are “not about dividing the country. We’re about ‘E pluribus unum.’”

That feeling when you realize institutions comprised of people over the age of 70 will not save you
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:44 PM on October 2, 2018 [113 favorites]

President Trump participated in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud, that greatly increased the fortune he received from his parents, an investigation by The New York Times has found.

No reason to be preemptively pessimistic about whether this reporting amounts to anything. At the very least, it gives the Democrats of the incoming House Majority (T, T, T, C, S, vote, and donate) something new and juicy to work with when they subpoena the president’s tax returns.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:45 PM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth

In all, the president’s parents transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate on gifts and inheritances that was in place at the time. Helped by a variety of tax dodges, the Trumps paid $52.2 million, or about 5 percent, tax returns show.

So he started of by cheating the US out of half a billion dollars and has been stealing from us ever since.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:45 PM on October 2, 2018 [53 favorites]

“That would not be my plan,” she added, saying Democrats are “not about dividing the country. We’re about ‘E pluribus unum.’”

That feeling when you realize institutions comprised of people over the age of 70 will not save you

It could just be here saying it's not her plan today. Plans can change and they often do!
posted by M-x shell at 12:55 PM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

“That would not be my plan,” she added, saying Democrats are “not about dividing the country. We’re about ‘E pluribus unum.’”

I remember being furious with Pelosi on inauguration day, when she couldn't have looked happier to welcome Trump into his new position, even literally giving him the pen to sign his papers.

Now I read her comment as a preview into what we can expect even if the Dems were to retake the House and the Senate. We'll always have our "Look forward, not at obvious crimes and attempts to destroy democracy backward" contingency, and they'll fight any moves to impeach Trump, Kavanaugh, and whomever else. It's about uniting with the hostage-taker, not breaking free and punishing him, you see.
posted by Rykey at 1:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Every single Dem should start to refer to him as "Tax-dodge Donnie" from now on, especially Elizabeth Warren. Hammer him with it relentlessly. he hasn't released his tax returns, he isn't really a billionaire, he's not self-made. In fact the press corps should do it too. Every time he insults a female reporter the next person called upon should re-ask the question he dodged while saying "you've earned the title as a tax dodger, but you can't dodge this question...."
posted by OHenryPacey at 1:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [31 favorites]

> and they'll fight any moves to impeach Trump, Kavanaugh, and whomever else. It's about uniting with the hostage-taker, not breaking free and punishing him, you see.

That’s why we gotta bully the democrats into groveling to us instead of to the republicans.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:02 PM on October 2, 2018 [15 favorites]

yes let’s all focus our efforts on criticizing our true enemy, the democrats
posted by Huffy Puffy at 1:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [38 favorites]

11 Takeaways From The Times’s Investigation Into Trump’s Wealth

The most amusing part about that article is the picture of the cover of The Art of the Deal with this caption: In Mr. Trump’s version of how he got rich, he was the master dealmaker who parlayed a $1 million loan from his father into a $10 billion empire.

The second most amusing part is this quote, which really needs a [sic] for that grocer's apostrophe: Mr. Harder, the president’s lawyer, said: “All estate matters were handled by licensed attorneys, licensed C.P.A.’s and licensed real estate appraisers who followed all laws and rules strictly.”

Third most amusing: But as it turned out, banks at the time valued the empire at hundreds of millions more than the sale price. Donald Trump, master dealmaker, had sold low.

*sad trombone*
posted by elsietheeel at 1:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Whats the point of impeachment? Get the Republicans on record a second time as supporting him, when they just voted for him?

It's not like its possible to remove him from office (if you cant get any Republicans to defect from confirming him, a weaker move, there's no chance you get 15 or so to vote to remove even if Dems end up with 51 or 52 seats)
posted by thefoxgod at 1:04 PM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

Well, we've heard what the Democratic House leader has to say.

Let's hope the Democratic Senate leader is at least willing to make a somewhat stronger statem—

SCHUMER: if Dems take over the Senate, we will have to look at setting the SCOTUS nominee requirement back up to 60 votes
posted by Atom Eyes at 1:05 PM on October 2, 2018 [30 favorites]

What was that old joke? The GOP is the opposition but the Senate is the enemy?

Except for the unwilling-to-learn-the-new-game leaders of the party.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:08 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

Now I read her comment as a preview into what we can expect even if the Dems were to retake the House and the Senate. We'll always have our "Look forward, not at obvious crimes and attempts to destroy democracy backward" contingency, and they'll fight any moves to impeach Trump, Kavanaugh, and whomever else. It's about uniting with the hostage-taker, not breaking free and punishing him, you see.

Exactly. Why wasn't W. held to account for war crimes? Why didn't anyone go to jail for the financial crisis? It's degrading to the national wellbeing to have Democrats forgiving and forgetting when their rich buddies commit crimes.

But it's ever thus. It's not a surprise. With occasional exceptions, wealthy Democrats have more in common with wealthy Republicans than they will ever have with the likes of us. Their class interests lie in making nice, not rocking the boat, dishing out sweet patronage dollars and going on the lecture circuit after they leave office. They don't have to worry about tuition for their kids or healthcare as they age - they're rich.

That's why we have to elect the leftmost available candidates and we have to join and fund mass organizations, whether that's unions, DSA or local orgs. We need to be able to vote the bums out, and we need people who share our values in Congress so that they can create a wedge to move the rest of them.
posted by Frowner at 1:09 PM on October 2, 2018 [60 favorites]

> yes let’s all focus our efforts on criticizing our true enemy, the democrats

Elected democrats aren’t enemies. they’re tools.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:11 PM on October 2, 2018 [16 favorites]

Every single Dem should start to refer to him as "Tax-dodge Donnie" from now on, especially Elizabeth Warren. Hammer him with it relentlessly. he hasn't released his tax returns, he isn't really a billionaire, he's not self-made.

This rhetoric does not reach any Trump voters or even really anybody but a narrow demographic that already votes D. Republicans don't care that he's a criminal because all of them, down to every last voter, have put their stamp of approval on criminality. Him being a not-actually-really-rich person doesn't matter to the base (and many non-voters as well) because he gets all the toys and treats of a rich person and acts the way they would act if they scammed and conned their way into money anyway, so why care if he's actually a millionaire and not a billionaire? For potential future D-voting current non-voters, realizing that only a rich cheater and not a mega-rich oligarch might make them more likely to vote for him in 2020, not less. It makes him an antihero, and Americans love a rule-breaking bad-boy.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:11 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

yes let’s all focus our efforts on criticizing our true enemy, the democrats

1. It's not "the Democrats" so much as "the most influential Democrats in Congress"
2. They're not "true enemies" so much as "really shitty friends sometimes"

(On preview: what Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon said.)
posted by Rykey at 1:13 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

I think many/most Republicans/libertarians view not paying taxes as almost a sacred duty, not a problem.
posted by thefoxgod at 1:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [27 favorites]

Hoo boy, let's let Pelosi take the gavel before we decide she's a groveling sellout.

Any conciliatory noises she makes now are probably meant for the press and the wobbly middle, who both want to see responsible leadership to counter Trump and positioning for some really tough battles ahead.

There will still be a government to run in January 2019 and Pelosi likely will have a weak hand (only the House majority), and maybe a middling to good one (a slim Senate majority) to play against the strong hand the WH gives Trump. Some comments today about ending division can help her claim that territory so the inevitable logjam gets blamed on Trump's inability to lead rather than the Democrats' determination to obstruct.
posted by notyou at 1:17 PM on October 2, 2018 [24 favorites]

That feeling when you realize institutions comprised of people over the age of 70 will not save you

TFW your ideological cohorts sometimes drop shitty garbage agism into their reasonable objections.
posted by phearlez at 1:20 PM on October 2, 2018 [31 favorites]

On taking the stage at the electrical contractors convention, Pres is presented with a contractors hardhat. At first he hesitates to put it on. "I'm afraid I'll mess up my hair." But then he puts it on for a few seconds, asking if his hair still looked okay when he took it off
posted by growabrain at 1:20 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

SCHUMER: if Dems take over the Senate, we will have to look at setting the SCOTUS nominee requirement back up to 60 votes

As a strategy this isn't bad. While Trump is president, even if we take the Senate we're not appointing judges, just approving them. So why have Jones or whatever red state D having to hang in and be the one vote that stops a Trump judge when with a 60 vote margin, the Rs are nowhere close to what they need so no single D takes the hit.

And then you dump the 60 vote requirement if we win in 2020 the first time Rs hold somebody up with it.
posted by chris24 at 1:21 PM on October 2, 2018 [18 favorites]

Mod note: Let's not go around the "mainsteam Dems are lamestream Dems" vs "they're the best we can do" vs whatever thing again. And psychology of repub's. You all know we've done this dance plenty of times, it's like reciting a catechism at this point. Aiming for actual updates in here. Venting thread is there for emotions. If you're just bored go check out funny memes; or hand tools; or Indian hitchhiker in America; or best science journalism; or first impressions of Bohemian Rhapsody; or Wrath of Khan the musical; or help a Mefite find the right potatoes.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:21 PM on October 2, 2018 [42 favorites]

You folks every play the game Papers Please? You're a passport inspector for a totalitarian regime, and every day, you receive a memo stating some new absurdity: only people with these permits are allowed in, detain anybody with those stamps. Anyway, I feel like that pattern, a constant barrage of absurdities coming down from the government, has become our lives. As a case in point:

APNewsBreak: Trump’s EPA moving to loosen radiation limits

The Trump administration is quietly moving to weaken U.S. radiation regulations, turning to scientific outliers who argue that a bit of radiation damage is actually good for you — like a little bit of sunlight.

The government’s current, decades-old guidance says that any exposure to harmful radiation is a cancer risk. And critics say the proposed change could lead to higher levels of exposure for workers at nuclear installations and oil and gas drilling sites, medical workers doing X-rays and CT scans, people living next to Superfund sites and any members of the public who one day might find themselves exposed to a radiation release.
...
The proposed rule would require regulators to consider “various threshold models across the exposure range” when it comes to dangerous substances.

While it does not specify that it’s addressing radiation and chemicals, an EPA news release on the rule quotes Calabrese as saying it would: “The proposal represents a major scientific step forward by recognizing the widespread occurrence of non-linear dose responses in toxicology and epidemiology for chemicals and radiation and the need to incorporate such data in the risk assessment process.”

posted by zachlipton at 1:22 PM on October 2, 2018 [25 favorites]

One of the important lessons from the Kavanaugh debacle is the concept of open secrets. Kavanaugh was sailing along in the confirmation, the Republican narrative being the dominant one, even though I suppose, that some news outlets and interest groups were looking into his past. Hell, I was convinced that he was a right-wing nut with a choirboy past. While the Ford (et al.) accusations may have required specific people to have come forward, a lot of these other matters could have come up with some good research. The fact that he was a belligerent, hard partying teen/young adult should have been easy to uncover. I know that it would not have been enough to derail him (hell, sexual assault may not be enough), it was there.

Stormy Daniels told of her affair in a small magazine back in 2010 (? exact year, uncertain). It did not come up pre-election even though there was a lot of scouring of Trump's past.

One of Trump's federal judges ran a ghost exorcism business -- which came out after he was confirmed.

The information is there, waiting to be exposed. There has to be some coordinated way of finding it for future nominees.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:30 PM on October 2, 2018 [22 favorites]

It’s not (just) to ratchet up the involuted, higher-dimensional Kafkafuckery, it’s because you know one of their cronies somewhere down the line was taking a .001% haircut on profits because they had to comply with existing regs, and that kind of interference with the Affairs of Self-Made Men is simply intolerable.
posted by adamgreenfield at 1:32 PM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

- It makes him an anti-hero, and Americans love a rule-breaking bad-boy.

Americans are idiots, and I long for the day we're annexed by Canada.

Mother Jones: The Craziest Conspiracy Theories to Emerge From the Kavanaugh Hearings featuring hypnosis, Coca-Cola sponsorship, and Amy Schumer.

Also MoJo: Amazon announced today it would raise the minimum wage for all its warehouse workers to $15 an hour starting next month. The raise in wages will effect its 250,000 full and part-time warehouse workers as well as over 100,000 seasonal employees to be hired in upcoming months.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:37 PM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

The information is there, waiting to be exposed. There has to be some coordinated way of finding it for future nominees.

But the information is already found? I'm sure people in these very threads were talking about it. "Finding" really means "getting the mainstream media to make a fuss about it".
posted by dilaudid at 1:37 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

> Americans are idiots, and I long for the day we're annexed by Canada.

We've got our own problems up here.
posted by The Card Cheat at 1:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Oceanside Woman Accuses Kavanaugh Of Rape In Anonymous Letter
Except I'm reading about this on patch.com, which makes me think this might not be super popular.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:47 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

But the information is already found? I'm sure people in these very threads were talking about it. "Finding" really means "getting the mainstream media to make a fuss about it".

There is some of that. But there are also things that don't come to light even though they are hidden in plain sight.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:50 PM on October 2, 2018

Benjamin Wittes (Lawfare): If I were a senator, I would not vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.

These are words I write with no pleasure, but with deep sadness. Unlike many people who will read them with glee—as validating preexisting political, philosophical, or jurisprudential opposition to Kavanaugh’s nomination—I have no hostility to or particular fear of conservative jurisprudence. I have a long relationship with Kavanaugh, and I have always liked him. I have admired his career on the D.C. Circuit. I have spoken warmly of him. I have published him. I have vouched publicly for his character—more than once—and taken a fair bit of heat for doing so.
posted by growabrain at 1:52 PM on October 2, 2018 [37 favorites]

Oceanside Woman Accuses Kavanaugh Of Rape In Anonymous Letter

That's the accusation referred to in the transcript released by Feinstein's office from this comment. Basically an anonymous letter with no date, no location, nothing. Not going anywhere.
posted by Justinian at 1:52 PM on October 2, 2018

@Fahrenthold (David Fahrenthold): Statement from the NY State Taxation authority, regarding this blockbuster NYT story: "The Tax Department is reviewing the allegations in the NYT article and is vigorously pursuing all appropriate avenues of investigation."
posted by christopherious at 1:53 PM on October 2, 2018 [60 favorites]

MeFites manage to curate a very very wide variety of data sources, including many not-even-remotely-mainstream outlets. Lots of information remained hidden. So in this case I don't think it is "mainstream" media that was missing it, everyone did.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:54 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Kavanaugh is lying and I'm going to write a long thread about this. I studied the body language of power and comfort for my master's thesis at #VCFA. From my research, I believe that Kavanaugh knows he attacked Ford and he's lying about it now
posted by growabrain at 2:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [16 favorites]

The Wittes piece that growabrain links to is probably one of the better, more honest conservative takes I've seen. But even it has this paragraph:

Over the weekend, I listened to a number of podcasts in which liberals mocked Kavanaugh as an entitled white male refusing to face accountability for what he had done. I find the tone of these discussions nauseating—undetained by the possibility of error. I, like Jeff Flake, am haunted by doubt, by the certainty of uncertainty and the consequent possibility of injustice. I spent a lot of time this weekend thinking about Oliver Cromwell’s famous letter to the Church of Scotland in which he implored, “I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken.” I also spent some time with Learned Hand’s similar maxim, “The spirit of liberty is the spirit which is not too sure that it is right.” We all need to think it possible that we may be mistaken; we all need to be not too sure that we are right.

Excuse me while I go stand in the hallway and scream an endless column of shrieking bats from my mouth-hole.
posted by joyceanmachine at 2:05 PM on October 2, 2018 [46 favorites]

I'm not sure I'm on board detailed body language analysis by someone whose qualifications, so far as I can tell, are an arts degree? But that doesn't matter. You know how I know Kavanaugh was lying? I listened to what he said and then I compared it to reality and those two things were not the same.
posted by Justinian at 2:05 PM on October 2, 2018 [79 favorites]

Joe Manchin is a total patronizing tool. WV teacher strike leader Emily Comer is awesome. He says he called for the investigation into Kavanaugh. oh really?
posted by bluesky43 at 2:06 PM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

"I studied the body language of power and comfort for my master's thesis..."

And I'm an amateur phrenologist. Have you people seen the skull-shape on this guy Kavanaugh?
posted by Atom Eyes at 2:07 PM on October 2, 2018 [19 favorites]

The Senate Judiciary Majority released a letter they received from a man who says he briefly dated Swetnick in 1993, which I will not link, that makes claims about her sexual preferences as it relates to multiple partners at once. That they would release this letter is appalling.

@qjurecic: I'm not going to link to it it, but the Senate Judiciary Committee majority's decision to release that letter is deeply gross. And I say this as someone who has been skeptical of Swetnick.

To give you a sense of the tone of this letter, @CharlesPPierce: That this letter doesn't begin "Dear Forum -- I never thought this could happen to me, but..." is the upset of the decade.

In other letter news, Dr. Ford's attorneys wrote the FBI Director : "It is inconceivable that the FBI could conduct a thorough investigation of Dr. Ford's allegations without interviewing her, Judge Kavanaugh, or the witnesses we have identified in our letters to you"
posted by zachlipton at 2:10 PM on October 2, 2018 [28 favorites]

Wow, the NYT has some saucy pdf paperwork to accompany the Trump finances article.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:12 PM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

So in this case I don't think it is "mainstream" media that was missing it, everyone did.

OK, I know this doesn't do any good (and I can't cite a place where I mentioned it online because I didn't), but as soon as I saw the revelation that, despite Donald Trump being widely understood to control the Trump Organization since the early '80s, Fred Trump actually continued to own it until his death in 1999, I thought, "The Trump Organization wasn't in great shape then—I wonder how they came up with the money to pay the inheritance tax. In fact, I wonder if they even paid the inheritance tax. IN FACT, I wonder if the Organization's woes in the '90s were manufactured to depress the value of the company so they could dodge the inheritance tax..."
posted by The Tensor at 2:13 PM on October 2, 2018 [9 favorites]

oh boy bringing up the sexual history of the accuser do I have it on my board yes indeed I won rape bingo
posted by angrycat at 2:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [95 favorites]

On taking the stage at the electrical contractors convention, Pres is presented with a contractors hardhat. At first he hesitates to put it on. "I'm afraid I'll mess up my hair." But then he puts it on for a few seconds, asking if his hair still looked okay when he took it off

He's been workshopping jokes about his hair for two decades, Trump Makes a Return to Improv:

Go ahead and call it a comeback. Donald Trump has been here for years, sure, but at two press conferences over the past week, the nation has gotten a glimpse of an older edition of Trump—the freewheeling, improvisatory man who ran for president in 2016, rather than the comparatively cloistered, sclerotic one who has lived in the Oval Office.
...
It used to be like this every week. Starting in June 2015, Trump was an unusually accessible presidential candidate, giving many interviews and frequent—and often bonkers—press conferences. But from late summer 2016, shortly after the Republican National Convention and coinciding with the ascension of Steve Bannon and Kellyanne Conway on his campaign, Trump pulled back drastically.
...
Watching Trump both on Thursday and again on Monday felt like a flashback to the wild, weird days of early 2016, and it showed both his weaknesses as a leader and his strengths as a campaigner. Because his presidency has so often seemed like a joyless slog, both performances were a reminder of what Trump was like before he was president. During the two recent appearances, the president once again seemed to be enjoying himself. Returning to the old format, Trump has been funny, condescending, demagogic, and full of untruth—and once again, it’s been nearly impossible to look away.

He's back into full-on campaign mode and he desperately needs to chum the news cycle so they don't cover Kavanaugh, so funny things are coming out of his mouth again. Despite myself I got a laugh at his seemingly self-aware bit about not drinking.
posted by peeedro at 2:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

The letter (it's easy to Google up if you're curious) is unbelievably gross. It also completely fails to refute anything she's claiming.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:15 PM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

I just got to the bit in the NY Times story about the kids (Robert, Donald, and Maryanne) manipulating the valuation of Fred Sr.'s estate to avoid estate taxes.

Maryanne is a federal judge. And these are serious claims about financial fraud. Even if the President cannot be penalized, I wonder if Maryanne is now at risk.
posted by suelac at 2:15 PM on October 2, 2018 [45 favorites]

@markberman: In the proud tradition of Roy Moore and Breitbart, here's a friendly outlet trying to preempt a forthcoming Kavanaugh story by laundering criticisms of that story before it publishes

@jonswaine: In 80s letter preemptively leaked to Federalist, Kavanaugh reportedly suggested to Beach Week friends that they "warn the neighbors that we’re loud, obnoxious drunks with prolific pukers among us"

I will not link The Federalist either (follow the above link and you'll get there if you want to), but it claims the Times is calling former classmates about the letter, which also says "I think we are unanimous that any girls we can beg to stay there are welcomed with open …" and "the danger of eviction is great and that would suck because of the money and because this week has big potential." It's signed "FFFFF, Bart," which matches his yearbook page (Kavanaugh testified that it was making fun of a friend's speech impediment)
posted by zachlipton at 2:27 PM on October 2, 2018 [15 favorites]

For publication day of The Fifth Risk, Michael Lewis sits down with NYMagazine in advance of his new book. This exchange stuck out from his previous interviews:

NYMag: You seem to have had no interest in the usual coverage of this administration — Who was yelling at who—

Lewis: No, no, no. I did care — the one thing I really did care about was exactly how the transition went down. To this day, there’s the question: Why? The unsatisfying answer, the answer that’s offered, is that Jared [Kushner] just had it in for Christie. But why did Trump say “We have to fire them”? Yeah, he’s ignorant, but I think there was probably a positive reason for what he did. And that is, he wanted the chaos, because among other things it let him put people in positions that the transition would never have. They vetted [Michael] Flynn out. They didn’t let him get into trouble that he wanted to get into. And I suspect Russia has something to do with it. If you had managed the government normally there would have been a lot more due diligence, a lot more windows into Trump’s relations with the Russians. So partly to cover it up, partly to muddy the water. And an instinct toward total commotion. Two weeks ago you were obsessing about the Mueller investigation. In the last four days you haven’t thought about it at all.

While Team Trump has shown a pattern of underestimating how badly upcoming books about the administration will damage them, they seem to be utterly unaware of Lewis's. He's a multiple-title bestselling author with talents for presenting complex situations as compelling, accessible narratives and laying bare enormous scandals without resorting to sensationalism. And his new work cataloging the Trump administration's fundamental government-wide incompetence is coming out in the final stretch of the midterm election campaign…
posted by Doktor Zed at 2:33 PM on October 2, 2018 [39 favorites]

zachlipton: Has someone explained why the Federalist was given this letter, or what its point is? It seems to comport with everything we know, but not be particularly damning (or vindicating either).
posted by InTheYear2017 at 2:44 PM on October 2, 2018

“That would not be my plan,” she added, saying Democrats are “not about dividing the country. We’re about ‘E pluribus unum.’”

Yeah well

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For [s]he that gets hurt
Will be [s]he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’

Justinian and The MeFites: Piece 'n Love b/w Burn That Shit Down
posted by petebest at 2:45 PM on October 2, 2018 [26 favorites]

The letter (it's easy to Google up if you're curious) is unbelievably gross. It also completely fails to refute anything she's claiming.

posted by prize bull octorok at 2:15 PM on October 2 [3 favorites +] [!]

For years, criminal justice of sexual assault had an unwritten official rule: if the woman was sexually active and especially if she had had more than one partner, she was fair game and couldn't be raped. That, in this day and age, anyone thought that rule still held is a sign of how deeply out of sync with mainstream America this GOP is.
posted by Mental Wimp at 2:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]

That, in this day and age, anyone thought that rule still held

It very much does still hold with the people they care about
posted by schadenfrau at 2:51 PM on October 2, 2018 [16 favorites]

zachlipton: Has someone explained why the Federalist was given this letter, or what its point is? It seems to comport with everything we know, but not be particularly damning (or vindicating either)

We've only seen the Federalist's least damaging presentation, which is intended to prebut the Times' reporting, so it's not clear what all is in there. But I would say that a contemporary letter from Kavanaugh describing himself and his friends as "loud, obnoxious drunks with prolific pukers among us," to the extent he's worried about warning neighbors and eviction, is fairly damning.

It was presumably leaked to the Federalist to undercut the Times and to attempt to dismiss their story in advance of publication.
posted by zachlipton at 2:55 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

loud, obnoxious drunks with prolific pukers among us

But Kavanaugh claims he became Beach Week Ralph Club's Biggest Contributor because he had a weak stomach, not because he drank too much.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

Nate Silver on Schumer's 60 vote judges thing: Yeah, people are getting this wrong. Schumer restoring the 60-vote SCOTUS filibuster would likely be a cynical, tactical ploy to give cover to centrist Democrats in 2019/20 if Dems win the Senate in Nov. Probably doesn't mean a lot if Dems were to win back the presidency in '20.

The initial reaction online was very negative but this seems to be coming around as the conventional wisdom.
posted by Justinian at 3:10 PM on October 2, 2018 [15 favorites]

NBC's report DHS Not Prepared For Family Separations Under Trump Zero Tolerance Policy, Watchdog Finds has further, appalling information:

In a separate DHS inspector general report dated September 27, the Adelanto ICE Processing Center, a detention center housing up to 1,940 ICE detainees in California, was cited for serious violations including nooses found hanging in detainee cells, “improper and overly restrictive segregation,” and “untimely and inadequate medical care.”

"I've seen a few attempted suicides using the braided sheets by the vents and then the guards laugh at them and call them 'suicide failures' once they are back from medical," a detainee said, according to the report.

Adelanto has housed multiple fathers separated from their children, NBC News has previously reported. Attorneys for the detained fathers say many were coerced into signing away the right to be reunited with their children.

On a tour inside the Adelanto facility, NBC News witnessed a detainee in isolation under what ICE said was medical supervision laying on the floor, curled up by the door of a cell.[...]

The report noted that ICE and the Geo Group, the private company which operates the facility, would address the violations.

Abolish ICE and bring charges against those responsible at the agency and its contractors.
posted by Doktor Zed at 3:11 PM on October 2, 2018 [58 favorites]

That, in this day and age, anyone thought that rule still held

It very much does still hold with the people they care about

Further it very much still holds in court that if the woman ever had consensual sex with her rapist, it's very unlikely to get a conviction. Because, yanno, she owes him then. At least according to some of the people my husband was on a jury with.
posted by threeturtles at 3:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [9 favorites]

English translation of adelanto:

1) advance, progress

2) advance payment
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:16 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

"Adelanto: Gateway to Victorville."
posted by notyou at 3:18 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

The broader question is that this seems to be based on a giant trove of Fred Trump's financial and tax documents—hundreds of returns and over 100,000 pages of documents—and I'm fascinated to know how that came to be.

The Times article seems to be hinting at its sources pretty strongly here:

All County had no corporate offices. Its address was the Manhasset, N.Y., home of John Walter, a favorite nephew of Fred Trump’s. Mr. Walter, who died in January, spent decades working for Fred Trump, primarily helping computerize his payroll and billing systems. He also was the unofficial keeper of Fred Trump’s personal and business papers, his basement crowded with boxes of old Trump financial records.

posted by ContinuousWave at 3:36 PM on October 2, 2018 [46 favorites]

DHS Not Prepared For Family Separations Under Trump Zero Tolerance Policy, Watchdog Finds

Scads of these headlines: "DHS not prepared for family separations," "Family separation policy was flawed from the start," "family separation policy poorly planned and executed," "many failures in Trump's family separation policy," "Faults in DHS Migrant Family Separation Policy."

These headlines normalize a "family separation policy," exonerate the perpetrators, and serve to enforce in the reader that there's a right way to commit crimes against humanity. It's absolutely chilling to see it from news outlets at such varying points in the political spectrum.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:41 PM on October 2, 2018 [61 favorites]

And as teased by the Federalist, here's NYT, Kate Kelly and David Enrich, Kavanaugh’s 1983 Letter Offers Inside Look at High School Clique
posted by zachlipton at 3:42 PM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

Schumer restoring the 60-vote SCOTUS filibuster would likely be a cynical, tactical ploy to give cover to centrist Democrats in 2019/20 if Dems win the Senate in Nov.

Cover from whom to do what seems like a good question here. I don’t really believe Schumer is capable of a “tactical ploy”, but if he is... it’s going to be so shitty people can do shitty things, isn’t it?
posted by Artw at 3:45 PM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

Mod note: Comment removed. I get where people are coming from with "this editorial cartoon is really visually striking", but please let's let it be instead of plopping it into a thread already heavily charged with people's personal shitty experiences with sexual assault. Whatever well-meaning intentions, please understand that "this allegorical drawing of a rape in progress really makes a good point" should be a show-stopper basis for a comment.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:52 PM on October 2, 2018 [32 favorites]

Whether or not he makes to to the Court, Kavanaugh is being treated as a sinking ship. Two of his former classmates, and perhaps even more significantly, three of his clerks are taking back their prior support for now, in various ways.

The former did so on the basis of his temperament and partisanship in the hearing. The latter write in response to their letters of commendation/support being misleadingly circulated after the allegations, when in fact they support a thorough investigation.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:56 PM on October 2, 2018 [42 favorites]

I don’t really believe Schumer is capable of a “tactical ploy”, but if he is... it’s going to be so shitty people can do shitty things, isn’t it?

It’s so they can let 2-3 Democratic senators vote for Trump’s next Supreme Court nominee but still reject it by moving the requirement up from 50 to 60.

He does this for a living.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 3:56 PM on October 2, 2018 [17 favorites]

I think it is an important cartoon but it should have a trigger warning.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:59 PM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

He does this for a living.

Seriously, “how can the maximum number of Dems vote for the shitty thing” is literally the only thing these people put any thought or effort into. And they actually think it’s clever.
posted by Artw at 4:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

Daniel Dale: "Trump has sent members of Congress a two-sentence letter about his trade deal, signed with a giant signature, and a package of news clips that includes one about Trudeau rivals alleging that Trudeau capitulated."

The letter reads, in full, "The trade deal, USMCA, has received fantastic reviews. It will go down as one of the best ever made, and it will also benefit Mexico and Canada!" Trump's illegible signature takes up about a fifth of the page.
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:12 PM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

There need to be some prosecutions for this.
Migrant Children Describe Tent City As 'Punishment,' Experts Say
Hundreds of children have been sent to a tent city in Texas where basic child welfare standards do not apply.
posted by adamvasco at 4:26 PM on October 2, 2018 [43 favorites]

My apologies for posting the (now removed) link to MacKinnon's editorial cartoon and to everyone who found it offensive or triggering. It was shortsighted of me not to consider the effect it could possibly have to many people, especially in the current environment. Sorry.
posted by TwoToneRow at 4:33 PM on October 2, 2018 [34 favorites]

In an interview, Tom Kane, a classmate and regular “Beach Week” participant, dismissed the letter as “a couple of harmless jokes.” He added: “It sounds like the script of ‘Revenge of the Nerds’ really.” He said he couldn’t remember details of the partying.

That's an unfortunate movie reference you reached for there, Tom.
posted by We had a deal, Kyle at 4:43 PM on October 2, 2018 [38 favorites]

I bet he reached for Revenge of the Nerds because he only related to the football team. Everything else was disposable or meaningless.
posted by rhizome at 4:55 PM on October 2, 2018

It looks like this isn't here yet... sometime within the last three hours, Michael Avenatti posted another affadavit from another witness.

The person, whose name is redacted, says they have known both Ford and Swetnick for a long time, and that they met Kavanaugh and Judge at a Beach Week party, attending those parties with them about 20 times. The biggest is a claim to have personally witnessed Kavanaugh spiking the drinks "with Quaaludes and/or grain alcohol", and this was "during the years 1981-1982" which would imply multiple incidents.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 4:58 PM on October 2, 2018 [45 favorites]

In "Maybe the kids are all right" news, here's a Sept. 30 FB post about a high school kid being an ass-slapping jerk to his girlfriend at the local post-football game ice cream shop, but his peers (male and female) try to get him to stop ("some of the girls compared him to Kavanaugh"), but he won't ("He looked contemptuous, and said, "Who?"), so they send vids of his assholery to his parents, who come to the shop and and give him hell, and the dad thanks the writer of the post for having tried to intervene earlier.
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 5:20 PM on October 2, 2018 [73 favorites]

This is probably an ignorant question, but can you spike punch with Quaaludes? What do you do, dissolve them?
posted by Cocodrillo at 5:29 PM on October 2, 2018 [1 favorite]

Grind 'em. Mix with sugar and make simple syrup. Yikes, I've never done that but that would make a dangerous drink.
posted by vrakatar at 5:39 PM on October 2, 2018

@atrupar [video]: Trump mocks sexual assault victim Dr Blasey Ford. "How did you get home? 'I don't remember.' Where is the place? 'I don't remember.' How many years ago was it? 'I don't remember. I don't know! But I had one beer! That's all I remember.'... And a man's life is in tatters."

And the crowd loves it.
posted by zachlipton at 5:40 PM on October 2, 2018 [17 favorites]

Trump is mocking Ford at his rally tonight. Shocked that after he's hurt by the Times story he lashes out at a woman.

Brian Tashman (ACLU)
Trump is now mocking and imitating Christine Blasey Ford: "I don't know. I don't know. Upstairs, downstairs, I don't know. I don't remember."
posted by chris24 at 5:40 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Whether or not punch can be effectively spiked with Quaaludes, it was attempted often enough to write about, in many settings related to 80's party or rave scenes.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 5:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

> Trump is now mocking and imitating Christine Blasey Ford

Video (NBC)
posted by christopherious at 5:49 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Sarah Kendzior: "It's also an attack designed to cause maximum pain to Ford. What traumatized her most? 'The uproarious laughter' of Kavanaugh and Judge. So Trump makes a mockery of her. It's pointed, sickening cruelty."

Trump obviously experienced narcissistic injury from the NYT story, so his instinctual response is to mock a woman who's a survivor of sexual assault. He's a sadistic monster.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:04 PM on October 2, 2018 [101 favorites]

This new routine is of course entirely expected for Trump, but crucially, it's exactly the opposite of the impression Republican senators hoped to make with regards to Ford. Not only did they employ Rachel Mitchell as a go-between so there wouldn't even be soundbites of them directly questioning her, they emphasized the (incoherent in context) idea that they "believe" her.

I wonder how best this new horribleness can be used to undercut them. People have to ask Grassley and the rest how they feel about the president saying and doing these things. There has to be some right-to-the-heart attack ad one can make from this. It's just so sick.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:12 PM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

And the crowd loves it.

The crowd is not giving it the icy reception it deserves but even in a crowd of Trump supporters I thought the video showed many who were uncomfortable engaging with his diatribe. Not that they deserve any credit but I suspect this is not the winning tactic Trump envisioned in his imagination.

And it should (and may) come back to haunt him.
posted by Nerd of the North at 6:15 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

Trump is now mocking and imitating Christine Blasey Ford

I hope this man rots in hell. and the women in the background who are laughing too. I am so ashamed to be an American with this garbage as the president.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:16 PM on October 2, 2018 [91 favorites]

This new routine is of course entirely expected for Trump, but crucially, it's exactly the opposite of the impression Republican senators hoped to make with regards to Ford.

No, it’s perfect. They take the high road (mostly) because they know he’ll take the low. They get to keep their hands clean, because the court jester will say the things they want to say, but can’t.
posted by greermahoney at 6:16 PM on October 2, 2018 [16 favorites]

People have to ask Grassley and the rest how they feel about the president saying and doing these things. There has to be some right-to-the-heart attack ad one can make from this. It's just so sick.

Trump is the leader of the Republican party. They're all hiding behind him, so the only thing that hurts them is what hurts Trump, which the only thing can think of is humiliation, loss of face.
posted by rhizome at 6:19 PM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

Whether or not punch can be effectively spiked with Quaaludes, it was attempted often enough to write about, in many settings related to 80's party or rave scenes.

Roman Polanski's drug of choice, IIRC
posted by ocschwar at 6:25 PM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]

Kavanaugh is lying and I'm going to write a long thread about this. I studied the body language of power and comfort for my master's thesis at #VCFA. From my research, I believe that Kavanaugh knows he attacked Ford and he's lying about it now

I remember the body language analyst that CNN had on live during the 1996 Atlanta olympic park bombing coverage who was totally convinced the innocent security guard, Richard Jewel, who was actually a hero and saved a lot of lives, was the bomber because he looked nervous.

I am 100% not onboard with making common cause with outrageously stupid charlatans like purported "body language experts". There is no such thing.

Kavanaugh is a liar because he tells lies not because of how he looks while lying.
posted by srboisvert at 6:26 PM on October 2, 2018 [77 favorites]

I suspect that science fiction writers have invented hard-science-based hells. Maybe we can use one of these to store Trump in, infinitum.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:26 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Roman Polanski's drug of choice, IIRC

Cosby.
posted by scalefree at 6:27 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

People have to ask Grassley and the rest how they feel about the president saying and doing these things. There has to be some right-to-the-heart attack ad one can make from this. It's just so sick.

Trump is the leader of the Republican party. They're all hiding behind him, so the only thing that hurts them is what hurts Trump, which the only thing can think of is humiliation, loss of face.

This.
Family separations, mass child abuse, the abandonment of Puerto Rico, mocking sexual assault victims. All of it. This is who Republicans are now. This is their brand.
No one can be allowed to forget it.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 6:29 PM on October 2, 2018 [50 favorites]

Trump is now mocking and imitating Christine Blasey Ford: "I don't know. I don't know. Upstairs, downstairs, I don't know. I don't remember."

@andybrk, 6:03 PM - 2 Oct 2018

Trump has said more than 50 times in various depositions that he can't remember things that happened only a few years before. He wants Ford to have perfect recall of a traumatic experience from decades ago?

posted by kirkaracha at 6:38 PM on October 2, 2018 [77 favorites]

I suspect that science fiction writers have invented hard-science-based hells. Maybe we can use one of these to store Trump in, infinitum.

They did and we live in it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:39 PM on October 2, 2018 [16 favorites]

- Roman Polanski's drug of choice, IIRC

-- Cosby.

Polanski used quaaludes in at least one attack, but it was Cosby's m.o.; both men used alcohol to increase the drug's effects.
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:44 PM on October 2, 2018 [11 favorites]

I am 100% not onboard with making common cause with outrageously stupid charlatans like purported "body language experts". There is no such thing.

And it's not even needed here. Kavanaugh has been provably lying in documents, in his own testimony, and by the testimony of numerous witnesses who knew him contemporaneously. He was suspected to be lying at his first confirmation, which was confirmed unequivocally in his second. He's a liar. He's likely committed perjury. He's broken every judicial cannon. He should be impeached from his current job solely on the basis of his testimony before the Senate last week, the content, not his appearance during delivery.

We don't need pseudoscience to "prove" Kavanaugh is lying. He's proven it himself. A dozen witnesses have come forward with a consistent story proving it again. There's innumerable grounds to not confirm him, and impeach him from his current office, without even considering his lying. He's as unfit a person to be a federal judge as could possibly exist, with the sole exception of Donald J. Trump himself.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:45 PM on October 2, 2018 [22 favorites]

The Brett Kavanaugh Guide to 1980s DC

Brett Kavanaugh’s summer-of-’82 calendar was plenty revealing when it came to the “who”—just not so much when it came to the “where.” So we have questions. Which bars did he hit with PJ and Squi? Where might the treasurer of the Keg City Club have picked up all those ‘skis? Allow us to speculate on where you could have had a Kav run-in in the early ‘80s.

posted by kirkaracha at 6:46 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

"with Quaaludes and/or grain alcohol"

"Killer Qs and 151"
posted by toxic at 6:50 PM on October 2, 2018 [28 favorites]

So Trump makes a mockery of her. It's pointed, sickening cruelty.

Goddamn I'm sick of the corporate news media rolling over time after time after time. THIS is too far (yes, there are many) but this is the most cutting, cruel bullying we've ever seen from any president since ... fuck Harding? This man is. Out. Of. Line.

Corporate News Media - the vaunted, toothless protector of this exact exercise in authoritarianism - now is the time to SAY the true things and not bloviate and horse race. Do the right thing for once in this dystopian bedlam and unleash the fucking flamethrowers. If not now - if not after sending innocent children to literal desert detention camps or basically 100 other attacks on America the real from this monster, what the HELL are you doing?!

You can stop this! Do it!
posted by petebest at 7:09 PM on October 2, 2018 [25 favorites]

How exactly can the news media "stop this"? I think you're assuming some magical powers that don't exist.
posted by neroli at 7:13 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

This tweet has attached photos of both pages of the "obnoxious drunks" letter. It's instructions to buddies, as he heads to Ireland on vacation, about how to finalize a week long rental of a house for Beach Week. Little is stated outright, lots of hinting. Ellipse after "with open...." is his.

I think we are unanimous that any girls we can beg to stay there are welcome with open . . . . Anyway, I think we're all set. [snip] The danger of eviction is great and that would suck, because of all the money and because this week has big potential. (Interpret as wish). [snip] FFFFF, Bart. PS It would probably be a good idea on Sat. the 18th to warn the neighbors that we're loud obnoxious drunks with prolific pukers among us. Advise them to go about 30 miles if [last bit cut off by photocopy machine]

posted by msalt at 7:14 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

Sarah Sanders on Trump: "Many decades ago the IRS reviewed and signed off on these transactions."

The IRS does not sign off your tax return. They may fail to catch certain fraudulent activity. But they never sign off, saying everything is okay. You never get a letter from the IRS saying that everything on your return is accepted.
posted by JackFlash at 7:16 PM on October 2, 2018 [65 favorites]

Given Trump's mocking tonight, the letter from Swetnick’s ex released by the Judiciary majority earlier, and a letter from Ford's ex put out by Fox News tonight, it's clear they're going all in on personal attacks against these women. They tried to put up the appearance that they weren't going to do so last week—that's why they hired Mitchell—, but now that the clock is ticking, they're pulling out every one of the usual tactics.

And yet people still ask why victims don't come forward.
posted by zachlipton at 7:20 PM on October 2, 2018 [67 favorites]

WaPo: Dear dads: Your daughters told me about their assaults. This is why they never told you.

To all the fathers of all the silent victims: Your children are quietly carrying these stories, not because they can’t handle their emotions but because they’re worried that you can’t. They are worried that your emotions will have too many consequences.

posted by triggerfinger at 8:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [38 favorites]

/Trump has said more than 50 times in various depositions that he can't remember things that happened only a few years before. He wants Ford to have perfect recall of a traumatic experience from decades ago?

That's part of the reason he doesn't believe her. Because when he says "I don't remember," that means he's lying about something he remembers perfectly well.
posted by pretentious illiterate at 8:11 PM on October 2, 2018 [17 favorites]

WaPo: Dear dads:

Reminder that MetaFilter also exists as a website outside of the politics thread.
posted by one for the books at 8:12 PM on October 2, 2018 [21 favorites]

There's already a post about the article triggerfinger mentions above, so people should go there to discuss it, and mods, if you've deleted triggerfinger's comment already, this one should go too...
posted by uosuaq at 8:12 PM on October 2, 2018 [2 favorites]

That's part of the reason he doesn't believe her. Because when he says "I don't remember," that means he's lying about something he remembers perfectly well.

Got me thinking about the time he mocked the disabled reporter. People remember the grotesque imitation more than they remember what he was saying: "I don't remember!"

He watched Alzheimers take his father over a period of decades, starting at around the age he is now. He understands on some level that he is similarly in decline, or at least knows that people are saying it and laughing about him. The psychology seems pretty transparent.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:19 PM on October 2, 2018 [8 favorites]

Reading the Wittes essay linked earlier, I was struck by this bit:

A number of senators, most notably Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, suggested in the hearing’s wake that the evidence was in some kind of equipoise, that both Ford and Kavanaugh had testified credibly, and that norms of fairness thus counsel giving Kavanaugh the benefit of the doubt.

If the evidence is really in equipoise, that means that it's a coin flip as to which person to believe. Wittes goes on to challenge that idea, and I think it's clear that Ford is much, much more credible than Kavanaugh. But suppose the evidence were really balanced. Suppose it were 50-50 between "Ford is telling the truth" and "Kavanaugh is telling the truth." Surely in that case it would be laughably irresponsible to confirm Kavanaugh. A 50% chance that this is the sort of man who drunkenly abuses a woman and then lies about it, unrepentant, up to the present day? Seems to me that it would have to be 90-10 in Kavanaugh's favor at least before it would make sense to confirm the man. I'd like to know what odds various Republican senators give. Is it okay to confirm somebody to the Supreme Court who has a 20% chance of being an attempted rapist? Somebody should make them bring these two things into line: how they balance the evidence and what odds they think are good enough for the Supreme Court. (I know, I know, nothing matters anymore. They're all a bunch of grasping, shameless jackwagons. But you don't even have to think he did it. You just have to think there's a non-negligible chance that he did it and have half an atom of humanity left in your soul.)
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 8:23 PM on October 2, 2018 [30 favorites]

Interesting 10/1/18 Fresh Air interview with journalist Greg Miller who broke the Mike Flynn story + many others
posted by growabrain at 8:36 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

> But they never sign off, saying everything is okay. You never get a letter from the IRS saying that everything on your return is accepted.

I can't find a reference anywhere but I swear I read something about an arrangement where you can show a tax avoidance scheme to the IRS and they will tell you if they think it is legal. If they change their minds later having that letter will prevent them coming after you for it.
posted by BungaDunga at 8:43 PM on October 2, 2018 [4 favorites]

I can't find a reference anywhere but I swear I read something about an arrangement where you can show a tax avoidance scheme to the IRS and they will tell you if they think it is legal. If they change their minds later having that letter will prevent them coming after you for it.

Private Ruling Letter. I have a suspicion that's not what the Trump family got in this case..
posted by Candleman at 8:51 PM on October 2, 2018 [10 favorites]

Josh Marshall of TPM raises an interesting point About That New New York Times Article.

We’ve been over this before. Let’s look at the questions.

Christopher Garrett was one of Kavanaugh’s “closest friends”. He hosted many of their parties. Inexplicably he was the guy one of Kavanaugh’s closest friends and conservative legal collaborators, Ed Whelan, identified as Blasey Ford’s actual attacker in his self-immolating twitter thread. Garrett also dated Blasey Ford at around the time of the alleged attack. Of all the various friends of Brett we’ve now heard from either publicly or indirectly through leaks, we have heard nothing from Garrett. As far as I know there has yet to be a single published article that even mentions getting a refusal to talk or no comment from Garrett, let alone any response.

The extreme drinking, the lying about it, the frat type behavior. These are all relevant to Kavanaugh’s nomination in various degrees. But here is a thicket of connections in the midst of which are almost certainly the answers or at least some of the answers to the questions about Blasey Ford’s accusation. And yet … nothing.

While I understand not wanting to be involved in this situation in this national environment, I have also been quite surprised at how little he has been mentioned. I can't recall even reading that he never responded to attempts to contact him. I would think the FBI might want to hear from the guy who was close friends with Kavanaugh and dated Doctor Blasey Ford at the time of the assault she described....
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 8:53 PM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:

-- VA-10: Monmouth poll has Dem Wexton up 50-44 on GOPer Comstock in their standard turnout model. In the low turnout model, Wexton up 50-46; high turnout, Wexton up 52-43 [MOE +/- 5.1%]. [Clinton 52-42 | Cook: Lean D] => This is maybe a little closer than expected, but Wexton still seems like a safe bet, especially since the Trump approval in the sample seems high.

-- FL-26: GQRR poll has Dem Mucarsel-Powell up 49-48 on GOP incumbent Curbelo [MOE +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Mucarsel-Powell campaign. [Clinton 57-41 | Cook: Lean R]

-- FL-16: St Pete Polls has GOP incumbent Buchanan up 50-43 on Dem Shapiro [MOE +/- 2.8%]. [Trump 54-43 | Cook: Lean R]

-- MN-03: Survey USA poll has Dem Phillps up 49-44 on GOP incumbent Paulsen [MOE +/- 4.3%]. [Clinton 51-41 | Cook: Lean D]

-- IL-12: DCCC Analytics poll has GOP incumbent Bost up 42-41 on Dem Kelly [MOE +/- 4.2%]. Poll was commissioned by the DCCC. [Trump 55-40 | Cook: Tossup]

-- Wason Center takes a fundamentals based approach, forecasts Dem gain of 42 seats.

-- Weigel on fundraising, and the battles on who to triage.

-- 538: Partisan lean often trumps candidate scandal.

** 2018 Senate:

-- MS (A): SurveyMonkey poll has GOP incumbent Wicker up 43-29 on Dem Baria [MOE +/- 4.3%].

-- MS (B): SurveyMonkey has Dem Espy at 25, GOP incumbent Hyde-Smith at 24, rogue GOPer McDaniel at 19. => This one could be s-u-u-u-per interesting. This will definitely go to a runoff, likely Espy and Hyde-Smith, in which case the GOP would be fairly strongly favored to hold the seat. But if it were Espy and McDaniel, he's so extreme that all bets would be off. AND, in the event we're doing a SCOTUS confirmation in the lame duck, the winner would be seated in December, not late January.

-- TN: SurveMonkey poll has Dem Bredesen tied 42-42 with GOPer Blackburn [MOE +/- 3.3%].

-- FL: SRA poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 45-44 on GOPer Scott [MOE +/- 3.46%]. SRA is not a 538-rated pollster. => Again, this pollster is out of nowhere, the survey period is quite long, and the Trump approvals are high. Not playing "unskew the polls" here, but this is eyebrow raising.

-- Mike Bloomber dumping $20M into backing Dem Senate campaigns.

** Odds & ends:

-- IL gov: SIU poll has Dem Pritzker up 49-27 on GOP incumbent Rauner [MOE +/- 3.7%]. [Cook: Likely D]

-- CO gov: Keating Research/Magellan Strategiespoll has Dem Polis up 47-40 on GOPer Stapleton [MOE +/- 4.0%]. [Cook: Lean D]

-- TN gov: Same SurveyMonkey poll has GOPer Lee up 46-35 on Dem Dean. [Likely R]

-- GA gov: SurveyMonkey poll has Dem Abrams tied 43-43 with GOPer Kemp [MOE +/- 3.0%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- AL gov: SurveyMonkey poll has GOP incumbent Ivey up 51-26 on Dem Maddox [MOE +/- 3.8%]. [Cook: Safe R]

--FL gov: Same SRA poll has Dem Gillum up 44-43 on GOPer DeSantis.

posted by Chrysostom at 9:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [29 favorites]

Aaaaand, there we are: Ariane de Vogue of CNN is reporting that FBI interviews in Kavanaugh investigation go beyond initial White House mandate

The FBI is expanding its inquiry into sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh beyond the initial four interviews that the White House directed to be conducted.

Two sources told CNN on Tuesday that more interviews are happening with a focus on other Kavanaugh high school friends who are listed as attending a July 1, 1982, party on the nominee's calendar. [...]

"I can confirm that Mr. Gaudette interviewed with special agents today, however, we are going to respectfully decline to elaborate on the interview," said Ken Eichner who represents Gaudette.

Chris Garrett, who was listed as an attendee at the party on Kavanaugh's calendar, also spoke with the FBI, according to his lawyer.

"Mr. Garrett has voluntarily cooperated with the FBI inquiry, and has completed his interview," said his attorney, William M. Sullivan, Jr.

Tom Kane, who was another of the attendees of the July 1, 1982, party told CNN, "I'd rather not say," when asked about talking to the FBI. Another attendee -- Bernie McCarthy -- did not respond to requests for comment.

Kavanaugh's friends listed as being at the July 1st, 1982 party are being or have been interviewed by the FBI. I'd be surprised if all of them are going to be willing to lie to FBI to cover Brett's ass, under penalty of perjury, 36 years later.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:03 PM on October 2, 2018 [29 favorites]

They might not be willing to lie but it's quite plausible nobody except Ford, Kavanaugh, and Judge remember anything and K and J could have been too blitzed for even that. If you asked me about a random get together I had in high school and who was present there's basically no chance I could tell you anything of import and I wasn't a drinker. And it was 10 years more recent than the questions here.

I wouldn't bank on anyone except Judge knowing anything, and who knows what he's saying.
posted by Justinian at 9:10 PM on October 2, 2018 [19 favorites]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kavanaugh reached out to these guys to tell them to keep quiet after the initial Ford news broke. Which seems like the sort of thing the FBI might ask about.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:13 PM on October 2, 2018 [6 favorites]

on the other hand, maybe someone remembers that occasion on which bart and mark fell down the stairs laughing.
posted by 20 year lurk at 9:17 PM on October 2, 2018 [3 favorites]

I'd be surprised if all of them are going to be willing to lie to FBI to cover Brett's ass, under penalty of perjury, 36 years later.

I’m interested to see how this plays out, because my guess is that, as a “citizen”, it’s probably hard to lie to FBI investigators. It’s a far cry from submitting a written statement or answering a journalist’s inquiry.

I’ve been wanting to address that discrepancy even for people who have equated this process with a routine FBI background check. Background checks are reasonably open-ended, and need some kind of meat in a response, for a consequential follow-up. Whereas here, the FBI knows what they’re looking for. A background check is a pretty different animal from an investigation.

When the FBI knows what information they’re after, they’re pretty good at getting it. And they’re typically pretty thorough in the process. I’m guessing that lying as cover isn’t going to stand up to the level of scrutiny these people are going to be facing from FBI investigators. We’ll know soon enough.
posted by Brak at 9:21 PM on October 2, 2018 [5 favorites]

Maggie Haberman tweet falling under the "irony is dead" heading: Several moments after Trump describes Kavanaugh’s treatment as “abuse” and decries guilty until proven innocent, the crowd goes into “Lock her up!”

welp
posted by Justinian at 9:36 PM on October 2, 2018 [56 favorites]

I wouldn't be surprised if Kavanaugh reached out to these guys to tell them to keep quiet after the initial Ford news broke. Which seems like the sort of thing the FBI might ask about.

We already have reports that Kavanaugh contacted vague college friends to encourage them to downplay or refute Ramirez' allegations. I would be stunned if he hadn't contacted his boys from high school about Ford's charges.

And while the safest lie is always "I don't remember," these guys have no excuse not to recall whether Kavanaugh or his minions contacted them since the summer. And they know that the FBI has access to full phone, text and email records.

The coverup is the Al Capone taxes of these sexual assaults, which is some kind of justice, there in Maryland where "The Telltale Heart" was written.
posted by msalt at 9:42 PM on October 2, 2018 [14 favorites]

Josh Marshall also points out that Kavanaugh signed the beach trip letter "Bart," which pretty much confirms that he's the "Bart O’Kavanaugh" from Mark Judge’s memoir.
posted by kirkaracha at 10:00 PM on October 2, 2018 [57 favorites]

I have a feeling this is a harbinger for Trump's eventual (we hope) removal. Just how many people are going to get dragged through the Kavanaugh thing? I mean seriously, people are like "look man, i don't want to get involved" and their worlds turn into Sarlacc pits. All because this fuckin' guy can't own up and take himself out for the good of what, I don't know...I'm sure he can think of something. Trump will burn his whole world down rather than retire as a public failure, If I was in the inner circle I'd really really want to be on the Trump's Masters side of the operation.
posted by rhizome at 10:05 PM on October 2, 2018 [12 favorites]

Stormy Daniels's first interview for her new book is with Jimmy Kimmel (YT)
posted by cendawanita at 12:04 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

I really should add a warning for the visual representation of mushrooms for that interview.
posted by cendawanita at 12:11 AM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

Do they just keep a fire truck at the White House now in case Trump gets fussy
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:05 AM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

On the one hand, I'm a big fan of Ms. Daniels. On the other hand, I'm not feeling in the mood to sexually humiliate anybody at the moment. I kept trying to figure out why the mushroom bit had me disturbed beyond the obvious, and that's it, it's the sexual humiliation. I hope that Trump faces unceasing torment in this life and the next, but I just can't do the point and laugh right now. I'm not judging it, I get it, it's cathartic, but I am just in no mood to laugh at the man for the shape of his dong, especially given the title of the post. And he's not funny. He's doing too much damage.
posted by angrycat at 2:51 AM on October 3, 2018 [21 favorites]

Hannah Golden: Women Running For Congress Are Out-Fundraising Male Incumbents In The 2018 Midterms
(I don't know anything about Elite Daily, but it seems to be associated with Bustle)
posted by Joe in Australia at 3:01 AM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

angrycat: I'm not judging it, I get it, it's cathartic, but I am just in no mood to laugh at the man for the shape of his dong

I'd normally be right with you on this, but in this case, I make an exception because a) he bragged about his penis size in public and b) he's all about the body shaming himself.

he's not funny. He's doing too much damage.

Now that we can agree on.
posted by Too-Ticky at 4:21 AM on October 3, 2018 [11 favorites]

Whether or not he makes to to the Court, Kavanaugh is being treated as a sinking ship. Two of his former classmates, and perhaps even more significantly, three of his clerks are taking back their prior support for now, in various ways.

Yesterday afternoon NPR made a big deal about Kavanaugh's obvious lies about his drinking in high school and college. I wonder if recognizing this obvious fact might be the peg Flake, Collins, and Murkowski hang their opposition votes. That way they aren't validating Dr. Ford's story, but "we don't want a judge with a drinking problem, or who lies about it, and we hope he seeks help" is a narrative that conservatives can pretend to support. A bigger sin than voting against Kavanaugh would be taking Democratic concerns seriously, but the drinking issue is, at least for the moment, universal.

It'd be ironic that Kavanaugh doubtless lied about his teen drinking in order to avoid supporting any part of her testimony and yet that fact is what sinks his confirmation.
posted by Gelatin at 4:49 AM on October 3, 2018 [18 favorites]

As always: it’s not the crime, it’s the coverup.
posted by saturday_morning at 5:04 AM on October 3, 2018 [31 favorites]

How exactly can the news media "stop this"? I think you're assuming some magical powers that don't exist.

A definition of "magic" might be arguable, but how we got in this situation isn't. Wall-to-wall coverage is the equivalent of sending in the tank divisions. It's often the first, and sometimes the only, deciding factor in a given outcome.

A 24/7 bonfire detailing these endless crimes, cover-ups, incompetencies, collusions, and callousness as the things they are would smoke him off the world stage in short order. If that's hard to imagine, consider the reverse - everything's made normal through shrugging reporting, everything's a both-sides-do-it, what does collude-with-Russia even mean, wow he's wacky, and note that that's what we have now.

Complete control / abdication-of-press-responsibility by the major information outlets is absolutely the biggest consistent element to this corrupt traitor being allowed to wallow in his crapulence.
posted by petebest at 5:37 AM on October 3, 2018 [35 favorites]

Anonymous sources at the FBI and Trump White House are telling the Washington Post everyone's worried about the Kavanaugh investigation's aftermath: FBI Navigates Political Minefield and Deadline In Kavanaugh Inquiry

One political consideration looms larger than those issues, according to people familiar with FBI and administration deliberations: If the Democrats win control of the House, lawmakers could launch investigations into exactly what White House and bureau officials said internally about the Kavanaugh matter.

The White House and FBI “are being very careful with each other,” said one person familiar with the matter, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations. “Everyone realizes that they are under a huge amount of scrutiny, and will be when it’s over, too.”

Several people involved in the discussions said part of the ­challenge is in handling the ­Kavanaugh inquiry like a “regular” background check when the circumstances make it highly unusual.[...]

Because the White House and even the president are dictating what the bureau should do, Wray is also involved in the matter, according to people familiar with the work.

And former FBI convey the same to the Atlantic's Natasha Bertrand: This Is No ‘Standard’ FBI Background Investigation

“I sense a degree of frustration inside” the bureau “with the public’s expectation that the FBI is conducting a full-court press when they’re not being permitted to do so,” [former FBI assistant director for counterintelligence Frank] Figliuzzi says. There is also “increasing concern that the White House and Senate will use the FBI as an excuse to say, ‘This has been fully investigated,’” when it actually hasn’t been. It is not conceivable, moreover, that the bureau has decided to ignore walk-ins and calls made to tip lines, Figliuzzi says. (The New Yorker reported recently that people purporting to have information about Kavanaugh were having difficulty communicating with agents.) But, he added, “the White House is still tightly controlling this investigation” in a way that may preclude agents from pursuing tips.

As of this morning, multiple media reports, citing unnamed sources, said the investigation could be completed Wednesday (USA Today).
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:39 AM on October 3, 2018 [18 favorites]

Speaking of walk-ins, I wonder about the FOIAability of those sorts of things. You can’t usually get anything that is connected to an active investigation but if they’re really calling this beyond the purview of this check why shouldn’t it be?
posted by phearlez at 5:45 AM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

As always: it’s not the crime, it’s the coverup.

Ah but the crime was limited in terms of participants and scope. The coverup? That's at least the Republican Party, think tanks, a human shield sex crimes prosecutor, several PR firms and a bot farm or two working out of a foreign country.
posted by srboisvert at 5:45 AM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

That's at least the Republican Party, think tanks, a human shield sex crimes prosecutor, several PR firms and a bot farm or two working out of a foreign country.

"This investigation has EVERYTHING..."
posted by pxe2000 at 5:55 AM on October 3, 2018 [81 favorites]

There is also “increasing concern that the White House and Senate will use the FBI as an excuse to say, ‘This has been fully investigated,’” when it actually hasn’t been.

Concern, hell. This is precisely what is most likely to happen. The FBI is not posting the entire investigation report up on Reddit or something where everyone can dig through it; they're putting it somewhere where the President* and the Senate can look at it and draw conclusions. Grassley et al. are already in a position where they're dismissing everything they don't agree with as "not relevant" and refusing to pass it on to the FBI; you can bet that they will be similarly dismissive of anything other than a literal smoking gun that is simply not going to surface.

But this isn't about convincing anyone among 90% of the Senate, who have already made their minds up. This is about the Gang of Oatmeal squishing in the middle, Flake and Collins and Murkowski and Heitkamp and Manchin, who are looking for an excuse to lean one way or another as a bloc. As I am fond of saying about Collins and Murkowski, they will happily be vote #52 but will never be vote #50 or 51 if they can help it.
posted by delfin at 6:14 AM on October 3, 2018 [9 favorites]

Am thinking the investigation is more likely to be forced to end today, in order to meet McConnell's timetable for forcing the necessary votes.
posted by ZeusHumms at 6:18 AM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

I know that investigators omit details from what they tell the public when they open the phone lines for help, so they can eliminate the cranks. This tells me that crank calls are enough of a problem for them to do this. People will confess to murder for any reason or no reason. With this amount of publicity, the stakes so high, the (artificial) time limit, and a public so invested in the outcome... is it any surprise they can't follow every lead or tip-off?

I'm supposing they're being DDOS'd into just focusing on their terms of reference*, is what I mean.

*It's still not clear what the terms of reference are.
posted by adept256 at 6:18 AM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

TRUMP: I 'brilliantly used' tax laws to pay as little as possible (October, 2016)

Donald Trump defended himself on Monday from mounting criticism over his taxes.
The billionaire, speaking at a rally in Colorado, was responding to a Saturday New York Times report that revealed he suffered a $916 million loss in 1995 and could have avoided paying federal income taxes for 18 years.

Trump argued that he "brilliantly used" US tax law "to pay no more tax than I am legally required."

...The Republican nominee labeled the US tax laws he took advantage of as unfair, despite that fact that he was, self-admittedly, a "big beneficiary" of them.

"But I'm working for you now, I'm not working for Trump," Trump said, to raucous cheers. "Believe me."

"Fixing our broken tax code is one of the main reasons I'm running for president," he said. "I've been saying from the beginning of this campaign how ridiculous, complex, and yes, unfair the tax system is. It is. It's an unfair system. And so complex that few people understand it. Fortunately, I understand it."
posted by petebest at 6:41 AM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Austin American Statesman: Fake Mailer Warns of $500 Fine For Displaying O’Rourke Signs, Civil Rights Group Says

“The letter, recently obtained by the Texas Civil Rights Project, features a 'CITATION WARNING,' 'quick facts about' O’Rourke and a '‘BETO’ REALITY CHECK' that includes the comments 'NOT HISPANIC,' 'FELONY ARREST RECORD,' 'INSIDER TRADING VIOLATIONS,' 'FATHER’S DRUG SCANDAL' and 'FAMILY BUSINESS FEDERALLY PROSECUTED,' according to images of the letter the organization shared on social media Tuesday. The letter appears to end with 'These issues have not been effectively reported to Texas voters.'”

The Cruz campaign denies responsibility, but the civil rights project calls it “absolutely a voter suppression tactic”.
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:43 AM on October 3, 2018 [64 favorites]

Am thinking the investigation is more likely to be forced to end today, in order to meet McConnell's timetable for forcing the necessary votes.

Really in this regard nothing has changed: the investigation continuing or not depends on the Oatmeal Caucus (delfin, this is brilliant) and their willingness to say they won't vote yes under this circumstance. The second they think they can get those clowns to vote yes they'll move forward.

I am marginally heartened - as much as I ever am with this doofus - by Flake's public statements about Boof Bart's temperament and now on Trump's anti-woman tantrum at his rally. He's certainly the king of folding but it at least doesn't sound like someone making justification noises as yet.
posted by phearlez at 6:50 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

Re the fake mailer, this kind of thing happens all the time, usually with plausible deniability from the campaign it's intended to 'help.'

If Cruz hadn't been running a completely clueless campaign I'd assume they didn't directly have anything to do with it. But this chucklehead burned any benefit of the doubt years ago, and at this point it wouldn't surprise me if they were printed on the dude's office laserjet.
posted by aspersioncast at 6:58 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

From Max Boot, WSJ op-ed editor, contributing editor to the Weekly Standard, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, adviser to John McCain and Mitt Romney:

The Republican Party is now a white nationalist party. They’ve basically made a Faustian bargain, where they say, “Give us judges and tax cuts and we’ll look the other way, at your racism, your xenophobia, your insanity, your attacks on our allies.” It’s crazy that Republicans are opposed to all gun control when we have such a rampant problem with gun violence, or when Republicans deny climate change, which is a scientific fact. Only if the GOP as currently constituted is burned to the ground will there be any chance to build a reasonable center-right political party out of the ashes.

(Note: emphasis mine, and the above has been edited together from a set of quotes in the article.)
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:59 AM on October 3, 2018 [89 favorites]

Fake Ad Claiming Iran’s President Endorsed Beto O’Rourke Is Pulled From Production, Gideon Resnick, The Daily Beast

The script for the spot was as follows:

“Hello, I am Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the script read. “Today, it is my pleasure to endorse Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate. As a Congressman, Beto was a strong supporter of President Obama’s Iran Deal—which gave billions of dollars to my country of Iran.”...

However, both the anonymous source and certain elements of the request suggest strongly that it could have been made by the group Secure America Now, an organization with financial ties to some major donors in the 2016 presidential election....

According to 2016 income tax returns obtained by the website OpenSecrets, Secure America Now was largely funded by multi millionaire donor Robert Mercer, the 45Committee (a pro-Trump dark money group) and Ronald S. Lauder, the president of the World Jewish Congress. Allen Roth, an adviser to Lauder, is the group’s president. A Bloomberg report from 2017 described how Secure America Now worked with Facebook and Google to place anti-refugee ads in swing states including Nevada and North Carolina.

posted by mcdoublewide at 7:15 AM on October 3, 2018 [13 favorites]

Buzzfeed News on Massachusetts's independent senate candidate and self-proclaimed inventor of e-mail: Shiva Ayyadurai’s Senate Campaign Was Being Promoted By Fake Facebook Accounts.

Among the account names: Donna Trumper and Vinnie Boombatz.
posted by adamg at 7:34 AM on October 3, 2018 [9 favorites]

Think you're a liberal? How your Patagonia bag and toilet paper fund the Kochs (Natalie Jones, Guardian)

The Koch brothers are planning to spend about $400m in the 2018 election cycle to advance their conservative and libertarian agenda, and are putting money behind 178 House candidates and 17 Senate candidates. Just one of the groups in their influence network, an advocacy outfit called Americans for Prosperity, has 500 paid staffers and nearly 3 million citizen activists nationwide.

The reason they can afford to do this is, in part, you. The Kochs own most of Koch Industries, an oil, gas and manufacturing behemoth with over 120,000 employees involved in the production of some unexpected consumer goods. Their interests are so multifarious, their reach so pervasive, that their organization has been branded the Kochtopus.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:35 AM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

Burr and Tillis, tell Trump to find new Supreme Court nominee

I'm increasing frustrated by the focus on appealing to Collins, Flake, et all. If your Senator is Republican -- CALL THEM ANYHOW. Have your friends and neighbors and networks call. Call even if you KNOW they've already made up their mind.

Ana Maria Archila spoke with Jeff Flake after he's announced he was a yes.

Call anyhow. Don't let them live in an echo chamber of positive comments or silent approval.
posted by anastasiav at 7:36 AM on October 3, 2018 [59 favorites]

Burr and Tillis, tell Trump to find new Supreme Court nominee

The Bangor Daily News and Portland Press Herald have both come out against Kavanaugh as well. Not that I trust Collins to care.
posted by chris24 at 7:36 AM on October 3, 2018 [11 favorites]

At 14:18 Eastern Time today the "Presidential Alert" text message will be broadcast to your cellphone. Please use this opportunity to think of what you'd like to see happen in the American government next.

For bonus points, use it as a reminder to give your Senators hell about O'Kavanaugh. The United States Capitol switchboard is [phone].
posted by petebest at 7:38 AM on October 3, 2018 [15 favorites]

Call anyhow. Don't let them live in an echo chamber of positive comments or silent approval.

Damn straight. Think of it this way: Even if you know they're not going to have a change of heart, your phone call is going to make their life just a tiny bit more annoying. Make their staffers wonder why they ever took this stupid job. It's targeted microharassment, and not only does it work, it feels good.

Has anyone called dibs on the sockpuppet "Vinnie Boombatz" yet?
posted by Faint of Butt at 7:41 AM on October 3, 2018 [19 favorites]

Think you're a liberal? How your Patagonia bag and toilet paper fund the Kochs

This is the worst kind of unhelpful concern trolling.

tl;dr; The Kochs and other oligarchs have effective monopolies on industrial products in several industries, and there isn't really anything that you can do about it, but we're going to unfairly call out several of the least-problematic companies who do some business with these conglomerates.
posted by schmod at 7:42 AM on October 3, 2018 [112 favorites]

Only if the GOP as currently constituted is burned to the ground will there be any chance to build a reasonable center-right political party out of the ashes.

Burn the fuel. The GOP is representative of a religious base that entertains major distortions about themselves, but which are often protected from the left, who wrongly see them as crutches and not weapons. Politics shouldn't be about the left circling their wagons around reproductive rights and environmental issues. The right should be circling wagons around their tax-exempt religious donations, which are actually fake charities for partisan issues. The religious right should be defending the public price of every baby born, so that people can see who is getting all the hidden welfare with their large families, and what they are not paying for when they force people to breed.
posted by Brian B. at 7:43 AM on October 3, 2018 [22 favorites]

This is the worst kind of unhelpful concern trolling

It’s basically the thing where people are expected to fix all of global warming through individual actions like not using straws, none of which can add up to any real impact, but instead of the environment it’s all of capitalism.
posted by Artw at 7:48 AM on October 3, 2018 [58 favorites]

tl;dr; The Kochs and other oligarchs have effective monopolies on industrial products in several industries, and there isn't really anything that you can do about it, but we're going to unfairly call out several of the least-problematic businesses who do some business with these conglomerates.

Also there is no ethical consumption under capitalism etc.

Except for consuming the rich. But I bet the Koch brothers are stringy and gross, like a couple of ancient roosters bound for the stewpot.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:49 AM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

Mod note: Hi friends, let's reel it back.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:54 AM on October 3, 2018 [25 favorites]

I see nothing wrong with voting with our wallets in addition to our ballots. One thing for sure is every dollar gets counted; every vote, not so much. So even if some of our choices are misguided, it's a good thing to attempt, and we'll get better at it over time. I for one am redirecting much of my company's spending away from subcontractors I know are run by Trump lovers and it is very satisfying.
posted by M-x shell at 8:20 AM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Emma Dumain (McClatchy)
The Atlantic Fest crowd is BOOING @LindseyGrahamSC for saying Kavanaugh was "treated like crap" last week
posted by chris24 at 8:23 AM on October 3, 2018 [91 favorites]

Has this piece of awesome journalism and harrowing read from Wired been posted yet?

But the spotlight on bots has overshadowed the importance of the people who often initiate the flood and flow of information, and how the narratives they build over time influence how we see politics, ourselves, and the world around us.

It seems this stuff is known, but to see it all in one place is kind of gut-wrenching.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 8:38 AM on October 3, 2018 [14 favorites]

Grassley Demands That Blasey Ford’s Lawyers Provide More Evidence - Kate Riga, TPM
posted by ZeusHumms at 8:40 AM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

John Roberts Has Tried to Keep the Supreme Court Above the Partisan Fray. Kavanaugh Could Undo All That. - Stephanie Mencimer, Mother Jones

Despite many of the court’s recent controversial 5-4 rulings, Roberts has attempted to build consensus among the court’s liberal and conservative factions when possible. In 2006, at the end of his first term, Roberts told legal analyst Jeff Rosen, “Politics are closely divided. The same with the Congress. There ought to be some sense of some stability, if the government is not going to polarize completely. It’s a high priority to keep any kind of partisan divide out of the judiciary as well.”

Roberts has said he believes 5-4 decisions are bad for the stability of the law. He wants the court to speak with a single voice, not as a collection of egos, each writing his or her own opinions to impress the world with brilliance. But these days, the court is populated with a lot of prima donnas and bruised egos. There’s Justice Clarence Thomas, whose confirmation process most resembles Kavanaugh’s, overshadowed by allegations of sexual harassment. Thomas has proven largely unable to persuade many of his colleagues to sign on to his quirky legal reasoning. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has indulged efforts to transform her into a pop-culture icon, even allowing documentary makers to film her working out. And then there’s the court’s newest addition, Justice Neil Gorsuch, who kicked off his first term by writing his own concurrences and dissents in an unusually large number of cases for a junior justice, apparently slowing the court’s work.

The arrival of a bitter, partisan Justice Kavanaugh into this mix could further set back Roberts’ efforts to build good will across the aisle.

posted by ZeusHumms at 8:49 AM on October 3, 2018 [19 favorites]

Grassley Demands That Blasey Ford’s Lawyers Provide More Evidence - Kate Riga, TPM

This is not something you do if you’re winning.

We’ve still got them on the ropes. Keep punching.
posted by schadenfrau at 8:57 AM on October 3, 2018 [60 favorites]

John Roberts Has Tried to Keep the Supreme Court Above the Partisan Fray

Which is why we need to be unrelenting in noting the illegitimacy of the court. Every decision, every case should be framed by how Gorsuch was a stolen seat, Kavanaugh (if he's confirmed) is a nakedly partisan hack, and 4 of the 5 conservative justices were appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote. Roberts is the swing justice now and pressure on his and the court's reputation is the only thing that might mitigate the worst of it. Just like FDR's court packing plan moved the court his way even without passing.
posted by chris24 at 9:00 AM on October 3, 2018 [22 favorites]

@robpegoraro: Graham defends Trump's insulting of Dr. Ford last night. "Everything he said was factual," he says. "This is what you get when you go through a trailer park with a $100 bill." Audience gasps. Somebody in my row: "Are you fucking kidding me?"


Yashar Ali points out James Carville said basically the same during the Clinton administration and it didn't help then, either.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:01 AM on October 3, 2018 [52 favorites]

On "pro-Kavanaugh" FB groups, tech reporter Kevin Roose:

Facebook's new "group history" tool is amazing. You can see, for example, that one of the largest pro-Kavanaugh groups on FB was previously called "ISIS SUPPORT GROUP" and "WHO FARTED? !!!!"

posted by spamandkimchi at 9:05 AM on October 3, 2018 [85 favorites]

What does that even mean? The trailer park comment. I mean, maybe I have sunstroke, but I'm not even parsing that as a logical sentence.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:09 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

"Everything he said was factual," he says.

Bullshit. I listened to Trump claim that Ford couldn't remember whether she had been assaulted upstairs or downstairs several days after listening and watching her be repeatedly and perfectly clear and specific on that point.
posted by flabdablet at 9:09 AM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

It means, to be blunt, you can get some lowlife whore to say anything. It was despicable when Carville said it and remains so.
posted by chris24 at 9:10 AM on October 3, 2018 [62 favorites]

CBS: Pompeo Announces Termination Of 1955 Treaty With Iran After Sanctions Ruling

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Wednesday that the United States would be terminating a 1955-era treaty of amity with Iran that regulates economic and consular ties between the two countries. Pompeo called it a move that was "39 years overdue."[...]

The move to end the treaty comes after the United Nations' top court on Wednesday ordered the United States to lift sanctions on "humanitarian" goods to Iran that Mr. Trump re-imposed after pulling out of the nuclear pact. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) unanimously ruled that Washington "shall remove by means of its choosing any impediments arising from the measures announced on May 8 to the free exportation to Iran of medicines and medical devices, food and agricultural commodities" as well as airplane parts, Judge Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf wrote.

The court said sanctions on goods "required for humanitarian needs... may have a serious detrimental impact on the health and lives of individuals on the territory of Iran."

Pompeo said Iran had brought a "meritless case" to the ICJ, alleging violations of the 1955 pact, and he suggested Iran wants to challenge the U.S. decision to pull out of the nuclear deal.

Also at this press conference, Pompeo said Iran is the origin of threat to U.S. missions in Iraq (Reuters), echoing Trump's UN remarks last week. While the Kavanaugh nomination dominates the front pages, the Trump administration's relentless drive against Iran has been picking up momentum lately.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:10 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

Midterms Show You Can Teach an Old Democratic Party New Tricks - Nancy LeTourneau, Washington Monthly

Howard Dean’s greatest contribution to the Democratic Party was to promote the idea of a fifty-state strategy. That rankled party operatives because the amount of money they had was limited, and the so-called “old guard” thought they knew best where to spend it. Prior to any actual votes, they picked the party’s winners and losers.

The story this week about how Democrats are raising substantial funds for the 2018 midterm elections demonstrates that the idea of a fifty-state strategy has permeated the entire party.

In response to a Politico article on Democratic success with small money donors, the DCCC said

The money sprouted after months of groundwork by campaigns and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The DCCC placed digital staffers in each of its regional political teams for the first time this election, according to a DCCC aide, helping campaigns grow online and be prepared to capitalize on viral moments and other opportunities.

To which Nancy LeTourneau added:

That is precisely how you operationalize a fifty-state strategy and compete in every zip code. You have to quit worrying about how to divvy up the pie and start working on how to grow it. And since we’re talking about Democrats, you do that from the ground up.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:13 AM on October 3, 2018 [24 favorites]

Grassley Demands That Blasey Ford’s Lawyers Provide More Evidence

WSJ: Friend Rejects Claim That Ford Helped Her on Polygraph Test
posted by chris24 at 9:17 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

What does that even mean? The trailer park comment.

He's calling Professor Ford trailer trash.
posted by dirigibleman at 9:19 AM on October 3, 2018 [20 favorites]

cybercoitus interruptus: some of the girls compared him to Kavanaugh

Let this be Brett's legacy, especially if he gets onto the Supreme Court -- known wide and far as a sexual harasser, if not just calling him a serial rapist.

And if you were worried about that 7 degree temperature increase by 2100 but managed to shrug it off a bit as a "future problem, here's something more near-term: many of America's drinking water pipes were laid in the early to mid-20th century, and are now approaching the end of their lifespans (NPR, Oct. 3, 2018). The Environmental Protection Agency estimates it will cost the country nearly $400 billion to fix the problem — a burden that would fall largely on average ratepayers who often don't have the extra money. So we have pipes that leak and pull in untreated water, which is even more of a problem in areas where the groundwater may be tainted by industrial and/or agricultural leakage and practices.
posted by filthy light thief at 9:19 AM on October 3, 2018 [22 favorites]

PRO TIP: If you're feeling stressed out by the news, just remember that Kavanaugh sounds exactly like Nathan Fielder (and vice versa).
posted by rorgy at 9:21 AM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

To save people a click on the Koch/Patagonia thing: The Kochs own a company that owns a company that makes Codura, which is a canvas fiber product used by literally thousands if not ten’s of thousands of companies to make stuff like backpacks. The fact that the article choose Patagonia to single out tells you all you need to know about it.

I’m actually not sure if Patagonia is still using Codura. Seems like everyone is moving to X-PAC anyway.
posted by sideshow at 9:25 AM on October 3, 2018 [32 favorites]

It "helps" that Gorsuch is a dick in ways that Roberts and the other justices reportedly find particularly galling. Of course if Kavanaugh gets on he and Gorsuch will form their own little G-Prep brosquad to pump out churlish dissents full of sign-post-dicta for the next case, when they don't get their way.

I’m actually not sure if Patagonia is still using Codura. Seems like everyone is moving to X-PAC anyway.

Yeah, halfway through the article mentions that they also ultimately control Lycra, which literally everyone uses. And also that their textile interests are about to be sold to a Chinese owner. (Since it's probably manufacturered there anyway.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:25 AM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

What does that even mean? The trailer park comment.

He's calling Professor Ford trailer trash.

More precisely, he's calling every woman trailer trash. Even if you have a PhD and have published academic articles and are a professor and do everything else that our society lets women do, Lindsey Graham -- the reasonable Republican who warned his party against Trump and railed against the Washington establishment for daring to attack a person in the august halls of the United States Senate -- thinks that you will expose yourself to the ridicule of the world for one hundred American dollars.

Let that be his legacy, and the legacy of everyone who fails to denounce him today.
posted by Etrigan at 9:25 AM on October 3, 2018 [149 favorites]

You can't escape the Kochs. The phone, computer, or laptop you are reading this on right now has at least one Molex connector in it.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:41 AM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Video of the Atlantic thing with Lindsay, on a regular web-page so you don't have to watch it directly on Facebook. Shit gets unhinged around 6m in.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:48 AM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

What does that even mean? The trailer park comment.

He's calling Professor Ford trailer trash.

More precisely, he's calling every woman trailer trash.

He's pointedly recycling the James Carville quote about Clinton's accusers: "If you drag a hundred dollar bill through a trailer park, you never know what you'll find."

Which was just as appalling, but 20 years ago, no one cared.
posted by blue suede stockings at 9:49 AM on October 3, 2018 [23 favorites]

Howard Dean’s greatest contribution to the Democratic Party was to promote the idea of a fifty-state strategy.

This whole myth about Howard Dean and the 50 state strategy really needs to die. It's a top-down, great man theory that encourages passivity.

Democrats are fired up because they think the tide has changed and they can win. The public is fed up with Republican incompetence and in a "throw the bums out" mood. It happened in 2006 with GW Bush and it is happening again in 2018 with Donald Trump. Democrats are getting lots of donations because they think they can win. Lots of Democrats are running in districts they didn't before because they think they can win. It's not because the DNC has changed its strategy.

This change is coming from the bottom up, not the top down. The idea that if only the national party worked harder, things would be different is a dangerous fallacy.

When the tide is against them, Democrats don't want to run in races they have no chance of winning. Running a campaign is an exhausting, soul-sucking, 16-hour a day, 7-days a week job. The idea you often hear here is why aren't more Democrats running in every race. It's not because of the DNC. It's because no one wants to be the sacrificial lamb just to make armchair Democrats feel good. The DNC doesn't make people run. Optimistic individuals choose to run when they think they can win.

Sitting around blaming the national party is not productive. When local folks become active, local folks will choose to run.
posted by JackFlash at 9:51 AM on October 3, 2018 [52 favorites]

Graham's newest spewing-forth is a variation on the way Trump uses the word "Pocahontas". The attempted plausible deniability is a desire to pin the awfulness on the other side, by accusing Elizabeth Warren of faking her ancestry and reminding everyone about Carville. In either case, the point could be made differently, but indulging in bigotry is the actual main purpose.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:51 AM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

> This whole myth about Howard Dean and the 50 state strategy really needs to die. It's a top-down, great man theory that encourages passivity.

I will fite you. The 50 state strategy was a real thing and it really did contribute to people being optimistic about running even in longshot races. All of those very real reasons that people don’t run, all of those tangible bad things you listed are made less bad when potential candidates know that they can expect money and support from the party even if they’re massive longshots.

The fond memories for the 50 state strategy aren’t the result of a cult of personality around Howard Dean or whatever — cripes, the man has like negative charisma and he’s working as, what, a pharmaceuticals lobbyist these days? He’s not remembered as a great top-down leader, he’s remembered as a party chair who at a crucial moment supported an extant bottom-up movement, against the tendency of party leaders before and after who tended to instead get in the way of bottom-up momentum.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 10:00 AM on October 3, 2018 [71 favorites]

This whole myth about Howard Dean and the 50 state strategy really needs to die. It's a top-down, great man theory that encourages passivity.

I don’t understand this take at all. Getting individuals to run is critical, yes, but so is building the infrastructure in each state that helps them get their message out and run an effective campaign.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:02 AM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

It means, to be blunt, you can get some lowlife whore to say anything. It was despicable when Carville said it and remains so.

Despicable, agreed, but noting that Carville was (and remains?) a political attack dog whose job is to be despicable, while Graham*is a sitting US Senator, whose job is to be a contributing member of history's greatest deliberative body.
posted by notyou at 10:02 AM on October 3, 2018 [26 favorites]

Mod note: Let's not relitigate Howard Dean in here -- someone can make a thread on that if you want to have that specific conversation.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 10:04 AM on October 3, 2018 [10 favorites]

Has this piece of awesome journalism and harrowing read from Wired been posted yet?

Probably a a whole FPP in itself there.
posted by Artw at 10:09 AM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

Anyone who wants to run for president needs to think about balancing when to start running because you need to be a well-known public figure to win, and how long to wait in order to minimize the effect of the Repub-Russia propaganda machine. I'm no saying it's OK that the bullies are winning this, and they shouldn't, and I hope someone smart can figure out how to deal with this. But it is a thing.

About liars. The most extreme and obnoxious liar I know is always completely calm and collected. Last time I saw her, she did get a bit upset when confronted with her lies, and she did accuse others (including, but not only me) of lying in spite of the evidence being right in front of us in print. But her agitation was barely noticeable. I'm 100% certain Kavanaugh is a despicable person and a liar, and I do believe his reaction has to do with his lies. But I don't think you can judge from a person's demeanor wether they are honest.
posted by mumimor at 10:10 AM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

It's Not Too Late to Register to Vote Online, Here's How - Matt Novak, Gizmodo

There are now 37 states that let you register online, with states like Florida, Wisconsin, Idaho, Tennessee, and Ohio only recently setting up online registration since the 2016 presidential election. The 13 states that don’t currently have online voter registration are: Arkansas, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. (North Dakota doesn’t require advanced registration at all.) No state in the union lets you actually vote online, and that’s probably a good thing for now.

The information [linked in the article] is primarily for online voter registration. If you’re interested in registering by mail or in person, you can visit Vote.org and fill out your contact information. They’ll direct you to everything else you need to know. We’ve also included the relevant links for mail-in registration forms for each state that doesn’t allow online registration.

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:12 AM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

indulging in bigotry is the actual main purpose

With full current hindsight it seems worth keeping in mind that what he's actually saying via that allusion is, “when a bunch of adulterous Republicans in Congress were using at least one serial gang rapist to investigate Bill Clinton back in the 90s, they found some really bad stuff too! Though they didn't care enough about it to put it in the articles of impeachment!” Bill Clinton and Carville and his other apologists should be condemned, but we shouldn't let any sort of “you started it” implication slide, certainly not as a distraction in the course of placing the same serial gang rapist on the Supreme Court.
posted by XMLicious at 10:16 AM on October 3, 2018

@robpegoraro: Graham defends Trump's insulting of Dr. Ford last night. "Everything he said was factual," he says. "This is what you get when you go through a trailer park with a $100 bill." Audience gasps. Somebody in my row: "Are you fucking kidding me?"

Pretty sure this is Lindsey officially announcing that he is now a conductor on the Trump Train.
posted by Mental Wimp at 10:16 AM on October 3, 2018 [17 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate:

-- NJ: FDU poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 43-37 on GOPer Hugin [MOE: +/- 3.9%]. | Vox Populi poll has Menendez up 52-48 [MOE: +/- 3.5%].

-- AZ: Suffolk poll has Dem Sinema up 45-42 on GOPer McSally [MOE: +/- 4.4%].

-- MO: SSRS poll has Dem incumbent McCaskill up 47-44 on GOPer Hawley [MOE: +/- 4.3%].

-- NV: SSRS poll has Dem Rosen up 47-43 on GOP incumbent Heller [MOE: +/- 4.6%].

** 2018 House:

-- PA-01: Monmouth poll has GOP incumbent Fitzpatrick up 50-46 on Dem Wallace in their standard turnout model. Low turnout Fitzpatrick 52-45; high turnout Fitzpatrick 49-48 [MOE: +/- 5.2%]. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup]

-- PA-10: PPP poll has GOP incumbent Perry up 47-46 on Dem Scott [no MOE listed]. It's PPP, so someone commissioned it, but not sure who. [Trump 52-43 | Cook: Lean R] => DCCC just started going up on the air there, so this looks like it's one of the "expanding the map" opportunities.

-- TX-32: GBA Strategies poll has Dem Allred up 47-46 on GOP incumbent Sessions [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Poll was commissioned by End Citizens United PAC. [Clinton 49-47 | Cook: Tossup]

-- MN-02: WPA Intelligence poll has GOP incumbent Lewis up 46-43 on Dem Craig [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the NRCC. [Trump 47-45 | Cook: Lean D] => This is pretty significantly off public polling, Lewis is likely trying to keep himself out of triage.

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: Same Suffolk poll has GOP incmbent Ducey up 50-38 on Dem Garcia. [Cook: Likely R]

-- NV gov: Same SSRS poll has Dem Sisolak up 45-41 on GOPer Laxalt. [Cook: Tossup]

posted by Chrysostom at 10:19 AM on October 3, 2018 [20 favorites]

Pretty sure this is Lindsey officially announcing that he is now a conductor on the Trump Train.

Conductor? Shit, that's Fox News' job. Lindsey is more of a boilerman.
posted by rhizome at 10:22 AM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

More folks taking an interest in NYT Trump tax report:

@NYCMayor: I’ve directed NYC’s Department of Finance to immediately investigate tax and housing violations and to work with NY State to find out if appropriate taxes were paid.

posted by Chrysostom at 10:23 AM on October 3, 2018 [69 favorites]

@NYCMayor: I’ve directed NYC’s Department of Finance to immediately investigate tax and housing violations and to work with NY State to find out if appropriate taxes were paid.

Boy, sometimes you can hear Ron Howard cuing up his narrator voice even through the twitters.
posted by Etrigan at 10:39 AM on October 3, 2018 [58 favorites]

@mattmfm:

There's increasing momentum for prioritizing DC statehood if Democrats win back Congress. In the past week, 5 new co-sponsors signed on, which means there are now a record 174 House co-sponsors. Democrats need to immediately vote for DC statehood when they win back the House.

posted by Chrysostom at 10:46 AM on October 3, 2018 [98 favorites]

NYT opinion piece: Trump’s New Taunt, Kavanaugh’s Defense and How Misogyny Rules

What we have been witnessing is the form misogyny takes when the most powerful, wealthy and entitled of white men find themselves confronted by women unwilling or unable to keep silent any longer.
posted by bluesky43 at 10:48 AM on October 3, 2018 [20 favorites]

Why should the Russian influence op stop at stoking racial tension? They can leverage bigotry in other forms, too, like when they amplified the "anti-SJW" backlash against the recent Star Wars movies.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:57 AM on October 3, 2018 [23 favorites]

Hamilton Nolan, Splinter: The Loneliest Democrat in America

Sagan more or less unilaterally decided to run for Congress, informed the state Democratic Party, and was essentially told: great, good luck. Neither the state nor the national party are giving him money. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has offered nothing. The most outside support he’s gotten was from Joe Biden, who wished him well. This laissez-faire approach by the party is just fine with Sagan. He has a plan. He is ceding the political money and advertising fight to his opponent in favor of a grassroots (read: he and Dianne) effort to turn out the vote, by targeting young people and black people, LGBTQ people and Latinos and women and people who work hard and don’t make enough money. These are the people he sees as his base. They are not served by the Republican Party; they constitute a majority of the residents of the district; and, by and large, they do not vote. Sagan is encouraged by statewide polls that show Texans in general becoming more friendly to Democrats over the past year; but since no one has bothered to conduct real up-to-date polling in his hopelessly one-sided district, the efficacy of his bare-bones campaign strategy can only be judged when the votes are tallied. [...]

Notwithstanding the daunting party numbers in the district, there are things to be learned here. It’s not unreasonable to see Greg Sagan as a Frankenstein’s-monster type of Democratic candidate, assembled out of the ideal pieces of many different constituencies in the party. On one hand, he’s an old white man with a background in the corporate world; on the other, he uses that technical expertise to argue in detail for single-payer healthcare and leftist pro-worker economic policies to fight inequality. He carries a handgun, but he favors gun control. He’s a military veteran with a decorated family history, but he calls the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq “two magnificently myopic disastrous decisions.” He discusses the dangers of climate change with ranchers. He speaks Spanish. He dismisses Trump’s border wall as the idea of a “dope.” And he is zealous on the topic of good government, with specific plans to do away with gerrymandering, roll back Citizens United, and expand voter registration. He is not a California Democrat or a Chicago Democrat or a New York Democrat. He is an Amarillo Democrat. To a degree remarkable for an aspiring politician but unremarkable for a Texan, he truly seems to be guided only by his own logic and convictions to the stubborn exclusion of all other concerns. If the Democratic Party ever decided to really try and compete in the reddest part of this country, it might consider getting behind a man like him.

posted by tonycpsu at 11:01 AM on October 3, 2018 [76 favorites]

There's increasing momentum for prioritizing DC statehood if Democrats win back Congress. In the past week, 5 new co-sponsors signed on, which means there are now a record 174 House co-sponsors. Democrats need to immediately vote for DC statehood when they win back the House.

...and Puerto Rico/USVI, and American Samoa/Northern Marianas/Guam.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:03 AM on October 3, 2018 [25 favorites]

So, two things about that New York Times tax story (ably reported by David Barstow, Susanne Craig, and Russ Buettner):

1. Trump and his family broke the law to steal from the public. They are criminals, and they should be prosecuted.



$500 MILLION dollars. They robbed the public treasury of $500 MILLION DOLLARS.

Do a quick search on "federal grant million." Look at all the valuable things our government gets for its money:

* transit projects
* mosquito control programs
* rape kit testing
* nursing college funding
* firefighting
* drug research
* earthquake retrofitting assistance
* programs for struggling readers
* cancer education and research
* mental health programs

I just skimmed the first several dozen results that came up, and (loosely doing the math in my head), I don't think it all added up to $500 MILLION. Most of these are $2,000,000, $5,000,000, a few transit programs for $8 or $9 million. 500 millions is a lot of millions. This is ONE FAMILY. This is ONE of the ways they cheated on their taxes. (And this is $500 million from several years ago. It would have bought even more public benefit then than it would now.)

If you live in America, whoever you are, wherever you live, THIS MAN STOLE FROM YOU.

And he and his Republican allies are making sure they and their unfathomably wealthy friends can keep doing it, and keep getting away with it, by defunding the government resources to find and prosecute these crimes.

How much could we reduce tuition costs, reduce health care costs, reduce child care costs, reduce transit costs, reduce infrastructure costs, reduce all the costs we pay, together, as a society, if these criminals paid their fair share?




2. The New York Times has received a lot of well-deserved criticism in these threads. This outstanding piece of journalism doesn't excuse all the horrible stuff they've printed, but personally, I'm glad and grateful they chose to investigate and run this story.

(And if you still hate the NYT but value excellent journalism, may I suggest making a donation to ProPublica.)
posted by kristi at 11:06 AM on October 3, 2018 [144 favorites]

The New York Times has received a lot of well-deserved criticism in these threads.
Maybe because this totally essential story came out a decade or two TOO LATE. When it should have been published was when Trumpy was an "eccentric rich guy" and chum of the Times.
posted by oneswellfoop at 11:10 AM on October 3, 2018 [53 favorites]

You know if the democrats are still looking for a positive message for the midterms, they could do worse than “we are going to find all of these thieves and then punch them and then keep punching them until all the money comes out.”
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 11:14 AM on October 3, 2018 [61 favorites]

DCCC shows faint glimmer of not being terrible in new ad
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:14 AM on October 3, 2018 [15 favorites]

Dang, I forgot to set my phone to Airplane Mode.
posted by box at 11:20 AM on October 3, 2018 [25 favorites]

Nice to see John Heard is still getting work.
posted by pxe2000 at 11:20 AM on October 3, 2018

Yeah, what if we don't want a message from the president??
posted by Melismata at 11:20 AM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

The New York Times has received a lot of well-deserved criticism in these threads.
Maybe because this totally essential story came out a decade or two TOO LATE. When it should have been published was when Trumpy was an "eccentric rich guy" and chum of the Times.

From an online column by The New Yorker's John Cassidy posted today about the NYT's story.

'Inevitably, there will be speculation about how the Times got hold of these papers, and whether anybody connected to the Trump family provided them. The story refers to depositions taken in a family dispute over Fred Trump’s will, which was eventually settled. It also mentions, “John Walter, a favorite nephew of Fred Trump’s . . . who died in January,” and who “was the unofficial keeper of Fred Trump’s personal and business papers, his basement crowded with boxes of old Trump financial records.”'

I canceled my online subscription to the NYT a while back because of the heinous false equivalencies of the editorial pages. Yes, it would have been good to have published this in 2016 but that's not how journalism works. Having access to Fred Trump's financial records is the key to the story and that apparently didn't happen until this year.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 11:20 AM on October 3, 2018 [33 favorites]

It just kept buzzing. Begone Orange One!
posted by leotrotsky at 11:21 AM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

furgawdsakes, now he's in my phone, the text just disappeared and there is no way for me to block him.
posted by bluesky43 at 11:24 AM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

I got an Amber Alert-style message rather than anything that would go through my text messages app.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:26 AM on October 3, 2018 [9 favorites]

(Reference to what everyone is talking about)
posted by Melismata at 11:26 AM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

Mod note: Couple deleted; meh, let's not go off into a bunch of obvious zingers about potus45 misusing this alert thing.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:27 AM on October 3, 2018 [10 favorites]

A piece by Claire Malone on 538: Democrats Really Could Lose That New Jersey Senate Seat.

Heckuva job Bobby.
posted by Justinian at 11:30 AM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

@REALpunknews: Tiffany Trump Receives First Ever Text From Father
posted by Atom Eyes at 11:39 AM on October 3, 2018 [107 favorites]

You can't escape the Kochs. The phone, computer, or laptop you are reading this on right now has at least one Molex connector in it.

OMG I should have known. For years spent working on computer hardware, you'd randomly hear co-workers say out of nowhere in their most Kirk-like voice things like "Dr Molex! Old! Friend! I see you've found me!" …and you'd know they were working on a power supply, with those horrid skin-ripping connectors that are inevitably tucked away in the most inconvenient, tool-inaccessible corner in the case. That the Kochs saw fit to purchase something so clearly designed to make human life just that much more miserable…

Ahem, back on topic:

GOP Senators Tell Trump to Stop Mocking Christine Blasey Ford. But Trumpworld Loves It.

Republicans said the president’s remarks didn’t help with the sell of Brett Kavanaugh. At least one member said it could influence her vote.

Hmpf. I'll believe it when I see their vote.  On the other hand, every little bit of pressure helps, I guess. Thank you all here for helping me keep my sanity in this mess. While I absolutely dismiss the oh-so eponymously named Flake's statement in the article, that both Murkowski and Collins sound irritated is an ever so tiny ray of hope.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 11:52 AM on October 3, 2018 [15 favorites]

$500 MILLION dollars. They robbed the public treasury of $500 MILLION DOLLARS.

More accurately: they are accused of depriving the public treasury on the taxes due on the amount they are alleged to have fraudulently conveyed, not the entire amount. That is still a crime of enormous magnitude and one that ought to redound upon everybody involved, including his sister the federal judge if (as seems likely) she was a knowing participant.
posted by Nerd of the North at 11:53 AM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

They dodged the taxes on a billion dollars:

the president’s parents transferred well over $1 billion in wealth to their children, which could have produced a tax bill of at least $550 million under the 55 percent tax rate on gifts and inheritances that was in place at the time

posted by BungaDunga at 11:56 AM on October 3, 2018 [68 favorites]

Seriously, we need to see Donald Trump’s tax returns - Matthew Yglesias, Vox

Congress could produce them with a simple committee vote, but Republicans are covering for Trump.
…
Trump’s tax returns seem, in many ways, like the Chekhov’s gun of our current political moment.

posted by ZeusHumms at 12:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [50 favorites]

Fox News Producer @WardDPatrick:

Fox confirms via 2 Sr Senate sources the FBI is expected to send a single copy of the supplemental report on Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Hill. All 100 Senators and 9 staffers will be authorized to read it. It will be kept in a Safe in the Sen Judiciary Cmte, per @MikeEmanuelFox

no word on whether or not the safe is in a disused lavatory with a sign reading "BEWARE THE LEOPARD" on the door
posted by murphy slaw at 12:17 PM on October 3, 2018 [75 favorites]

Washington Post: Days Before Trade Deal, Trump Said Canada’s Foreign Minister ‘Hates America’

“She hates America,” Trump said, referring to Canada’s negotiator without using [Chrystia] Freeland’s name. He was in the midst of a 10-minute riff on Canada and the then-ongoing trade negotiations, not dissimilar to remarks he gave at the previous day’s news conference in New York. In those public remarks, Trump said, “We don’t like their representative very much,” again without saying Freeland’s name but referring to her directly.

Fun Fact: Chrystia Freeland, an award-winning journalist, is the author of the 2012 bestseller Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else. Trump's characterization of her opinions about the US notwithstanding, she unquestionably despises him and everything he stands for.
posted by Doktor Zed at 12:22 PM on October 3, 2018 [23 favorites]

It will be kept in a Safe in the Sen Judiciary Cmte, per @MikeEmanuelFox

get me Nic Cage, I have a terrible idea for a National Treasure sequel
posted by prize bull octorok at 12:23 PM on October 3, 2018 [45 favorites]

Mitch McConnell’s Kavanaugh calculation. Why the Senate majority leader keeps pushing so hard to confirm Brett Kavanaugh. - Andrew Prokop, Vox

At least one part fulfilling a dream to apparently turn the court conservative, one part fulfilling obligations and promises to his conservative constituency.
posted by ZeusHumms at 12:24 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

But he could make those dreams come true by backing someone besides a sexual assaulter and drunkard.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:35 PM on October 3, 2018 [15 favorites]

Trump’s tax returns seem, in many ways, like the Chekhov’s gun of our current political moment.

Hmmph. More like the Godot we are perpetually waiting for.
posted by octobersurprise at 12:37 PM on October 3, 2018 [17 favorites]

> It will be kept in a Safe in the Sen Judiciary Cmte, per @MikeEmanuelFox

I am powerfully annoyed that going forward I’ll have to consider “facility at spycraft” when deciding which democrat to vote for in primaries. apparently the new heuristic for picking least-bad candidates is “vote for the leftmost viable superspy.”
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 12:39 PM on October 3, 2018 [21 favorites]

But he could make those dreams come true by backing someone besides a sexual assaulter and drunkard.

The bonus is Kavanaugh as a backstop against the Mueller investigations and possible presidental subpoenas. That keeps Trump's head in the game.
posted by JoeZydeco at 12:44 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

> It will be kept in a Safe in the Sen Judiciary Cmte, per @MikeEmanuelFox

Guess we'll have to count on someone at the FBI to lead it, eh? Or a GOP Senate staffer.
posted by Mental Wimp at 12:44 PM on October 3, 2018

Reminder that the WH are absolute masters at hyping up piles of blank paper as important documents.
posted by Artw at 12:46 PM on October 3, 2018 [24 favorites]

The chosen one? The new film that claims Trump's election was an act of God - Harriet Sherwood, The Guardian.

"The Trump Prophecy", shown in special screenings via Fathom Events at theaters across the United States.
posted by ZeusHumms at 1:00 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

From Dr. Ford's lawyers to Sen. Grassley:

Regarding the documents you have requested in your letter of October 2, 2018, Dr. Ford is prepared to provide those documents to the FBI when she is interviewed. We have not yet heard from the FBI about scheduling an interview with her.

The documents in question involve therapy notes, apparently.

There was a report earlier today that the FBI hasn't interviewed Kavanaugh or Ford because the White House hasn't given them "clear authority" to do so. I guess the tweet wasn't enough.
posted by zachlipton at 1:07 PM on October 3, 2018 [38 favorites]

The chosen one? The new film that claims Trump's election was an act of God

"For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. " 2 Timothy 4:3-4
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:07 PM on October 3, 2018 [32 favorites]

Mod note: Couple deleted. Enough on "how much blame does NYT have for Trump", a question we've gone over many many times and people have made their same points over and over.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:08 PM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

Aaron Blake (WaPo)
NPR/Marist poll:

45% believe Christine Blasey Ford
33% believe Kavanaugh

In the early 90s, this was:

Clarence Thomas 40%
Anita Hill 24%
posted by chris24 at 1:10 PM on October 3, 2018 [68 favorites]

Can we crowdsource sending a Minox camera to every Senate Democrat
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [11 favorites]

Hmm... Trouble in FBI land?

Chad Pergram (FOX)
Cornyn on if the FBI report could delay the Kavanaugh vote:
Rather than trying to rush it, it’s prudent to do it one step at a time
posted by chris24 at 1:18 PM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

"For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. " 2 Timothy 4:3-4

"Remember that fundamentalist Christian narrative where a horrible con artist dictator rises to power and makes friends with Russia, and half the church, now apostate, praises and follows him to the end rather than Jesus?"
posted by clawsoon at 1:34 PM on October 3, 2018 [35 favorites]

Cornyn on if the FBI report could delay the Kavanaugh vote:
Rather than trying to rush it, it’s prudent to do it one step at a time

Ha ha, wasn't Grassley 110% in on the hustle to get Ford to cough up her papers not 2 hours ago? Before the Ford letter dropped, I suppose, but Cornyn appears to be nothing more than a windsock here.
posted by rhizome at 1:45 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

Nate Cohn on the political effects of the Kavanaugh fight over the last two weeks: There's a pretty decent amount of evidence at this point that both A) Kavanugh's popularity has dropped B) The GOP has gained since the Kavanaugh hearing. Obviously, doesn't matter if it doesn't last. But it's interesting.

That matches what we see in the polling. Kavanaugh has become very unpopular but the GOP base is fightin' mad and unfortunately may be activating for the midterms. The Dem base is also fightin' mad... but were already, so the enthusiasm (polling) gap has narrowed or disappeared. Time to redouble our efforts.
posted by Justinian at 1:47 PM on October 3, 2018 [23 favorites]

That GOP senators want the report released is making me think it's what we all fear: a half-assed exoneration that's being held in reserve to generate an aura of undeserved honesty and authority over the issue of Kavanaugh's lies and assault history.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:59 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

The Dem base is also fightin' mad... but were already, so the enthusiasm (polling) gap has narrowed or disappeared. Time to redouble our efforts.

The most depressing part of this to me is that in hindsight it looks unavoidable, because if Trump's SCOTUS pick, whoever it was, slipped through confirmation without a fight that would also be likely to narrow the enthusiasm gap, by depressing the Dem base.
posted by Holy Zarquon's Singing Fish at 2:06 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

"The Trump Prophecy", shown in special screenings via Fathom Events at theaters across the United States.

So.. the Guardian article linked above flat-out avoids some of the nuttier and more alarming things that self-proclaimed prophet Mark Taylor has claimed, such as that John McCain did not die of brain cancer but was secretly executed by a military tribunal or that the Illuminati are preparing to use weather-control to suppress turnout in midterm elections.

It also fails to identify Jerry Falwell, Jr. as the president of Liberty University, the private ultra-conservative bible college that funded the film, nor does the article mention Falwell's connections to President Trump.

Fred Clark has been actively and aggressively covering the movie in his blog Slacktivist where he expresses understandable contempt for Falwell and Liberty University's embrace of this clearly false prophet.
posted by Nerd of the North at 2:08 PM on October 3, 2018 [19 favorites]

To be a Democrat is to believe that all options are automatically going to blow up in your face.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:09 PM on October 3, 2018 [43 favorites]

We are the Wile E. Coyote of American politics.
posted by workerant at 2:10 PM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

We are the FDR and JFK of American politics.
posted by M-x shell at 2:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [28 favorites]

> “Trump is God’s will, there’s no other way to explain it. I prayed for him through the [2016 election] campaign. I know in my heart that God raised him up for this time in our country.”

Well...a god, perhaps.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

We have only two headlines to choose from:
Democrats Are Losing
or
Democrats Are Winning; Here's Why That Means They'll Lose
posted by scaryblackdeath at 2:15 PM on October 3, 2018 [72 favorites]

Adam Serwer zeros in on what was so striking to me when Trump mocked Christine Blasey Ford. I was prepared for that to happen, we all knew it was inevitable—if anything, I was surprised it took this long—, but I wasn't ready to see the crowd laughing and cheering it on. The Cruelty Is the Point

Ford testified to the Senate, utilizing her professional expertise to describe the encounter, that one of the parts of the incident she remembered most was Kavanaugh and his friend Mark Judge laughing at her as Kavanaugh fumbled at her clothing. “Indelible in the hippocampus is the laughter,” Ford said, referring to the part of the brain that processes emotion and memory, “the uproarious laughter between the two, and their having fun at my expense.” And then at Tuesday’s rally, the president made his supporters laugh at her.
...
The cruelty of the Trump administration’s policies, and the ritual rhetorical flaying of his targets before his supporters, are intimately connected. As Lili Loofbourow wrote of the Kavanaugh incident in Slate, adolescent male cruelty towards women is a bonding mechanism, a vehicle for intimacy through contempt. The white men in the lynching photos are not merely smiling because of what they have done, but because they did it together.

We can hear the spectacle of cruel laughter throughout the Trump era. There were the border patrol agents cracking up at the crying immigrant children separated from their families, the Trump adviser who delighted white supremacists when he mocked a child with down syndrome who was separated from her mother. There were the police who laughed uproariously when the president encouraged them to abuse suspects, the Fox News hosts mocking a survivor of the Pulse Nightclub massacre and in the process inundating him with threats, the survivors of sexual assault protesting Senator Jeff Flake, the women who said the president sexually assaulted them, or the teen survivors of the Parkland school shooting. There was the president mocking Puerto Rican accents shortly after thousands were killed and tens of thousands displaced by Hurricane Maria, the black athletes protesting unjustified killings by police, the women of the #MeToo movement who have come forward with stories of sexual abuse, or the disabled reporter whose crime was reporting on Trump truthfully. It is not just that they enjoy this cruelty, it is that they enjoy it with each other. Their shared laughter at the suffering of others is an adhesive that binds them to each other, and to Trump.

Taking joy in that suffering is more human than most would like to admit. Somewhere on the wide spectrum between adolescent teasing and the smiling white men in the lynching photographs are the Trump supporters whose community is built by rejoicing in the anguish of those they see as unlike them, who have found in their shared cruelty an answer to the loneliness and atomization of modern life.

posted by zachlipton at 2:16 PM on October 3, 2018 [102 favorites]

I'm a bit surprised at the relative silence following the NYTimes blockbuster on Trump's tax evasion schemes. I would have thought that a story about evading half a BILLION dollars in taxes would have produced a bit more of a reaction...?

But maybe it's because the other news orgs are racing to dig through the material and come up with their own angles. Maybe.

For now, the Washington Post just goes with:
N.Y. tax agency weighs probe after report that Trump family built wealth through tax-avoidance schemes and fraud
The New York Times investigation contradicts the image President Trump has projected of himself for decades as a self-made billionaire. An attorney for Trump called the report “100 percent false, and highly defamatory.”
and
* Analysis: The two pillars of Trump’s origin myth dislodged by investigation
* Trump dismisses New York Times story on ‘dubious tax schemes’ as both a ‘hit piece’ and ‘boring’

posted by RedOrGreen at 2:27 PM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

Dave Wasserman on Cook ratings changes to fuel democratic panic: House Ratings alert: 7 more GOP seats move towards Dems at @CookPolitical. Biggest changes:

1. #FL26: Curbelo (R) - Lean R to Toss Up
2. #KS03: Yoder (R) - Toss Up to Lean D
3. #MI11: OPEN (R) - Toss Up to Lean D
4. #NY24: Katko (R) - Likely R to Lean R
5. #UT04: Love (R) - Lean R to Toss Up

oh wait they are still all towards democrats.
posted by Justinian at 2:33 PM on October 3, 2018 [37 favorites]

So this is an interesting letter from Democrats on Judiciary. It cites two tweets that the Senate Judiciary twitter account (which has been used by the majority for pretty much entirely partisan ends, which is nuts in and of itself) put out yesterday:

As part of Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination to #SCOTUS, the FBI conducted its SIXTH full-field background investigation of Judge Kavanaugh since 1993. As part of these 6 prior FBI investigations, the FBI interviewed nearly 150 different people who know Judge Kavanaugh personally. 1/2

Nowhere in any of these six FBI reports, which the committee has reviewed on a bipartisan basis, was there ever a whiff of ANY issue – at all – related in any way to inappropriate sexual behavior or alcohol abuse. 2/2

Then the letter says says: "While we are limited in what we can say about this background investigation in a public setting, we are compelled to state for the record that there is information in the second post that is not accurate."

They're obviously playing a game here by making insinuations about something he can't speak about publicly, and it could well prove to be innocuous or de minimis.
posted by zachlipton at 2:40 PM on October 3, 2018 [35 favorites]

an answer to the loneliness and atomization of modern life.

I was nodding along until this part - I'm pretty sure the phenomenon he's describing is older than history. And frankly I've seen it too often from people leading full, social and powerful lives that certainly don't seem atomized or lonely.

It may be an aspect of the phenomenon, but writers keep bringing it up as a somewhere between an explanation and an excuse, and I think it's a pretty limited one.
posted by trig at 2:41 PM on October 3, 2018 [14 favorites]

I'm inclined to agree that bullies aren't necessarily lonely, miserable people on the bottom of the social heap. Plenty of terrible a-holes are popular and respected. They don't participate in group cruelty in a sad bid to belong, they do it because they fundamentally don't recognize their targets as fully human.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 2:47 PM on October 3, 2018 [43 favorites]

National Council of Churches calls for Kavanaugh's nomination to be withdrawn

The nation’s largest coalition of Christian churches on Wednesday called for the withdrawal of Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination for the Supreme Court.

The National Council of Churches, which has membership from more than 40 denominations including most major Protestant and Eastern Orthodox denominations in the U.S., wrote in a statement on their website that they believe Kavanaugh has “disqualified himself from this lifetime appointment and must step aside immediately.”

Their site is hammered right now.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 2:56 PM on October 3, 2018 [61 favorites]

We have only two headlines to choose from:
Democrats Are Losing
or
Democrats Are Winning; Here's Why That Means They'll Lose

Like a large ship at sea, narratives have a power and mass culturally that's difficult to shift, even—or perhaps especially—when they veer from reality.  That every headline always predicates ultimate disaster for the Democratic Party reminds me very much of how our favorite—or favorite to hate depending on your electronics preference—fruit company was treated in the press long long after the narrative became wildly incorrect.

From the mid-90s forward, it was only a half-joke that the word "beleaguered" would always be found in any article about Apple. The narrative had them failing, and would not be steered from that story. Even after the wild success of the iMac and then iPod clearly showed they weren't going away any time soon, half the articles seemed to veer back to why this meant Apple was doomed. It wasn't until after the iPhone was a runaway success by quite literally redefining the nature of smartphones—though its failure was assured, we ourselves were assured at the time by many—that the narrative changed. And even so it hasn't changed far, just metamorphosed into some closely related, for the narrative is now how Apple is doomed (any day now, we promise!) because of whatever pet peeve the writer has.

All this is to say that narrative doesn't control reality, nor does it even reflect it in most cases. The Democratic Party is not doomed to failure any more than any other human endeavor, despite the perpetual narrative. In others words, yes it is doomed eventually because all human things are, but we are not privy to the when or how, and I gladly close any tab when a story starts veering down that old warhorse of a narrative. I don't have time to wring my hands over some writer's lazy efforts. Tell me how this helps or hinders this next election, now how it means the party is ultimately doomed.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 2:57 PM on October 3, 2018 [29 favorites]

(Justinian, if you're going to scoop me, you have to do all the work!)

Cook ratings changes, eight moves, all GOP-held seats moving to the left:

FL-26 [Curbelo] | Lean R => Toss Up
KS-03 [Yoder] | Toss Up => Lean D
MI-03 [Amash] | Solid R => Likely R
MI-11 [open] | Toss Up => Lean D
PA-17 [Rothfus] | Lean D => Likely D
NY-24 [Katko] | Likely R => Lean R
UT-04 [Love] | Lean R => Toss Up

Current totals:

Solid D - 182 (182 D, 0 R)
Likely D - 13 (9 D, 4 R)
Lean D - 12 (1 D, 11 R)
Tossup - 31 (2 D, 29 R)
Lean R - 25 (0 D, 25 R)
Likely R - 27 (1 D, 26 R)
Solid R - 145 (0 D, 145 R)

Dems need to net 23 seats for the majority.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:22 PM on October 3, 2018 [27 favorites]

And having said that, I of course left one off:

NY-21 [Stefanik] | Solid R => Likely R
posted by Chrysostom at 3:30 PM on October 3, 2018 [8 favorites]

I just got excited about the race changes, sorry!

There are 207 seats rated as Solid/Likely/Lean D right now. According to Nate Cohn they have not polled a race rated at Lean D or better where the result wasn't at least D+8. 218 seats are needed for a majority.
posted by Justinian at 3:34 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

FWIW, Wasserman current forecast is 25-40 seat Dem gain.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:36 PM on October 3, 2018

What's the one democratic seat that looks likely to flip, in Likely R? Is that one of the Pennsylvania seats that got redistricted?
posted by Justinian at 3:36 PM on October 3, 2018

There are 207 seats rated as Solid/Likely/Lean D right now. According to Nate Cohn they have not polled a race rated at Lean D or better where the result wasn't at least D+8. 218 seats are needed for a majority.

Wait, 218 > 207. How do we get a majority?
posted by kirkaracha at 3:43 PM on October 3, 2018

I'm a bit surprised at the relative silence following the NYTimes blockbuster on Trump's tax evasion schemes.

I am not. Trump likely knew it was coming, and while I don't doubt he is asshole enough to randomly start up a media firestorm by attacking Blasey-Ford, it is probable he amped it up to provide a smokescreen.
posted by tocts at 3:44 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

Yeah, that's the seat Lamb was elected to. The new map moved the Allegheny County portion of it into the Rothfus district. Rothfus district got much bluer, old Lamb district got much redder - Trump +29 now.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:44 PM on October 3, 2018

Aaron Blake (WaPo)
NPR/Marist poll:

45% believe Christine Blasey Ford
33% believe Kavanaugh

In the early 90s, this was:

Clarence Thomas 40%
Anita Hill 24%

I wonder how much of this is progress in society's attitude toward women, vs. how much is the fact that Anita Hill presented herself as an authoritative professional lawyer, while Dr. Ford -- despite her professional accomplishment -- conformed to a much greater degree with a traditional feminine role, apologetic, people-pleasing, higher voiced. Also, race.

Not trying to be cynical, I'm generally optimistic, but I think the question is worth asking.
posted by msalt at 3:45 PM on October 3, 2018 [14 favorites]

Wait, 218 > 207. How do we get a majority?

Win Tossups and Lean Rs.
posted by chris24 at 3:45 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Wait, 218 > 207. How do we get a majority?

By taking 11 of the 31 tossups, or some of the lean R or worse seats.
posted by Justinian at 3:46 PM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

Re: energizing Republicans

Not surprising, and possibly one answer to why Trump is sticking with Kavanaugh. BUT:

1) This strategy seems likely to alienate independents and nominal Democrats and Republicans, especially women who may be less willing to state their opinions out loud in the presence of spouses.

2) The losing side will be discouraged and lose a lot of the energy that's massive on both sides. Right now, all this means is that everyone's watching intently. I think winning or losing is going to be the key here.
posted by msalt at 3:50 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

There are 207 seats rated as Solid/Likely/Lean D right now. According to Nate Cohn they have not polled a race rated at Lean D or better where the result wasn't at least D+8.

This sounds good, but really it's gerrymandering in action. Packing as many Dem voters into as few actual seats as possible, so you get pollng results where every Dem seat is at +8, but need to win deep Republican districts to actually take power. Remember how we won Virginia by 8% but still didn't get a majority? That's still entirely possible nationally. Ideally there'd be as many competitive districts as possible, and the winner of a "wave" election would win the overwhelming majority of them. As is, even if Democrats win, the "blue wave" will be maybe 40 seats, not 100. Because of gerrymandering.
posted by T.D. Strange at 3:51 PM on October 3, 2018 [11 favorites]

2) The losing side will be discouraged and lose a lot of the energy that's massive on both sides.

I think the opposite. I think Rs winning/Ds losing will relax Rs and motivate Ds/women.
posted by chris24 at 3:54 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

I think it's easy to create a Just So story for either position. There's really no way of saying.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:57 PM on October 3, 2018 [24 favorites]

The full text of Brett Kavanaugh's 1983 high school yearbook has been scanned & is now online, thanks to the Internet Archive. h/t TPM
posted by scalefree at 3:57 PM on October 3, 2018 [17 favorites]

...seems likely to alienate independents and nominal Democrats and Republicans, especially women who may be less willing to state their opinions out loud in the presence of spouses

We heard the exact same thing about Trump in 2016 tho
posted by kirkaracha at 3:57 PM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

Just remember that the way that gerrymandering works can also backfire spectacularly. Because the GOP can't always pack all the democrats into a couple of districts, they've carefully balanced all the districts to have a safe voter balance in a normal year. Because this isn't a normal year that balance can make for a spectacular tipping point.

It's still an uphill and ridiculously unfair fight. But gerrymandering is not the sure bet that it's sometimes depicted as
posted by cirhosis at 4:04 PM on October 3, 2018 [13 favorites]

As is, even if Democrats win, the "blue wave" will be maybe 40 seats, not 100. Because of gerrymandering.

I think you're exaggerating the effect of gerrymandering. Let's say take the ideal model where Democrats got seats in the House that in proportion to the total national vote. So we do a national proportional representation, state lines don't come into play, there's no wasted votes anywhere (Brooklyn voting 98% D, for example), and we'll throw out third parties.

Current 538 generic ballot average is D+8, so let's assume that is the final, meaning Dems have 54% of the national vote, GOP 46%. That's a Congress of 235 Dem, 200 GOP. That's a gain of...42 seats.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:05 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Just remember that the way that gerrymandering works can also backfire spectacularly.

That's true but it used to be a lot more true than it is now with the advent of computer modeling and such. They design the gerrymanders to withstand waves of a certain size very carefully. A big enough wave can still swamp it but it would have to be really big.
posted by Justinian at 4:06 PM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

MI-11 [open] | Toss Up => Lean D

That is my district, and while I won't say that I'm amazed at the idea of having a Democrat in this seat, I will admit to raising one eyebrow at the idea of having a Democrat in this seat, especially given the ad-buy ratio that I've personally seen.
posted by Etrigan at 4:09 PM on October 3, 2018

Alexander Bolton at The Hill: Senators will view FBI report on Kavanaugh Thursday. The article quotes Dick Durbin, saying that there will be one single copy for the entire Senate.

"And we were also [told] that we would be given one hour for the Dems, one hour for the Republicans. Alternating." If all 100 senators decide to review the document and it takes each senator 30 minutes to peruse the document, it could take 50 hours for the entire chamber to examine it. "Do the math," said Durbin. "That's a lot of time."

I hope Democrats are doing the math, and plan to take every single second they are allowed to view the document. I also hope someone goes in early on, on the phone with a staffer, and simply reads the report out loud for his or her half hour.
posted by msalt at 4:11 PM on October 3, 2018 [37 favorites]

If all 100 senators decide to review the document and it takes each senator 30 minutes to peruse the document, it could take 50 hours for the entire chamber to examine it.

Having given up on the former half of "world's greatest deliberative body", the GOP-led Senate is doing its damnedest to nuke the latter half as well.
posted by Etrigan at 4:13 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

I don't think there's been any previous public polling of MI-11. There is a Siena poll in progress, and while it has a ways to go, it has the Dem up 16 points.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

I think you're exaggerating the effect of gerrymandering.

I see your point, but if the maps were drawn to create the maximum number of competitive disticts, you'd have a lot of districts that were all "toss ups", every cycle. A wave cycle would mean the winning party took like 70%+ of the tossups, resulting in a much bigger swing.

You can draw the lines a lot of different ways, but if we actually believed in democracy, we'd draw them towards promoting competition and enacting the will of the majority, not protecting incumbents or suppressing one side's ability to ever regain power.
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:14 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

That is true, and I am in strong agreement. There are several state ballot initiatives this year that will hopefully move us more in that direction.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:16 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

I doubt the Kavanaughs recycle, but it occurs to me that it would be quite curious what kinda bottle action some unscrupulous muckraker would find in their trash.
posted by aspersioncast at 4:22 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

I especially think the House should be completely in play, every cycle, to offset the built in and unfixable constitutional gerrymandering of the Senate. If there were a way to magically or AI-assistedly draw every House district to include exactly 50-50 Republicans and Democrats and adjust them in realtime, we should do that. Or somehow make every House seat at large in every state.

(Yes I know some districts are drawn to promote minority representation...and I don't know how to fix that just yet. I'll work on it for when they call me for the constitutional convention)
posted by T.D. Strange at 4:22 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

msalt: I hope Democrats are doing the math, and plan to take every single second they are allowed to view the document. I also hope someone goes in early on, on the phone with a staffer, and simply reads the report out loud for his or her half hour.

It's a SCIF. No mobile phones in SCIFs, which is why the Republicans are doing it this way.
posted by bluecore at 4:23 PM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

It's a SCIF. No mobile phones in SCIFs, which is why the Republicans are doing it this way.

If the FBI report on your nominee requires a SCIF to read it, you need a different nominee...
posted by mikelieman at 4:25 PM on October 3, 2018 [99 favorites]

LIVE: A 'Stop Kavanaugh' vigil is happening outside the Supreme Court.
posted by Rykey at 4:26 PM on October 3, 2018 [46 favorites]

Drawing fair single-member districts is complicated because it's not always clear what "fair" means. If you have an area where the partisan split is 70R-30D and has 2 reps, is drawing the districts so that the reps are 1R 1D fairer than 2R 0D? If Republicans draw it, you'd get 2R 0D and if Democrats draw it you'd get 1R 1D, obviously, but neither is necessarily fairer than the other. It gets far more dicey when you add in demographics because then you have to weigh how much you value people having a rep demographically similar to them. If you spread out the minority vote it's quite possible the overall partisan representation will be fairer but it could also result in all the reps being white dudes even if a good chunk of the area isn't.

That used to be a big problem though these days white Democrats seem significantly more willing to vote for the non-white candidates in the primaries so perhaps it's fading on one side.

All that said, the way we do it now is the worst of all possible worlds and is no good very bad.
posted by Justinian at 4:27 PM on October 3, 2018 [9 favorites]

The full text of Brett Kavanaugh's 1983 high school yearbook has been scanned & is now online, thanks to the Internet Archive. h/t TPM

posted by scalefree at 3:57 PM on October 3 [1 favorite +] [!]

Don't know if this was mentioned earlier, but one quote from Mark Judge's senior page was from Noel Coward:

"Certain women should be struck regularly, like gongs."

Now, Mark fancies himself a writer, so it's not surprising he would like Noel Coward, but this seems like an indicative choice, innit?
posted by Mental Wimp at 4:30 PM on October 3, 2018 [12 favorites]

A proper investigation would have taken as long as it took...

And sure as hell would have given Brett fucking Kavanaugh an opportunity to lie to the FBI.
posted by pjenks at 4:32 PM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

I’m at a protest in Clayton, MO, a suburb of St. Louis. Activists have been occupying the sidewalk outside Roy Blunt’s local office since noon yesterday. I was here for about six hours yesterday and we had a rotating crew of around a dozen people. Tonight there are something like two hundred. People have been bringing so much food and water to drop off that they’ve requested everyone slow down. There’s an art table, an enormous table of food and drink, and it feels like people are relieved to be out here. It’s something special.
posted by EarBucket at 4:32 PM on October 3, 2018 [74 favorites]

How Showtime Made a Secret Documentary About the New York Times’ Big Story on Trump’s Tax Evasion - Chris O'Falt, IndieWire

Originally hoping to qualify the short documentary for Oscar consideration, Showtime decided instead to air “The Family Business: Trump and Taxes" this Sunday.

posted by ZeusHumms at 4:47 PM on October 3, 2018 [37 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS - pt. 2

** 2018 Senate:

-- Slew of Fox News polls, all with MOE of +/- 3.5%:

- AZ:poll Dem Sinema up 47-45 on GOPer McSally.

- IN: Dem incumbent Donnelly up 43-41 on GOPer Braun.

- MO: Dem incumbent McCaskill tied 43-43 with GOPer Hawley.

- ND: GOPer Cramer up 53-41 on Dem incumbent Heitkamp.

- TN: GOPer Blackburn up 48-43 on Dem Bredesen.

-- NJ: Quinnipiac poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 53-42 on GOPer Hugin [MOE: +/- 4.1%].

-- WV: Global Strategy Group poll has Dem incumbent Manchin up 48-36 on GOPer Morrisey [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Poll was commissioned by the Manchin campaign.

** 2018 House:

-- MN-02: Siena poll has Dem Craig up 51-39 on GOP incumbent Lewis [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 47-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- ND-AL: Same Fox News poll has GOPer Armstrong up 51-34 on Dem Schneider. [Trump 64-28 | Cook: Solid R]

-- FL-18: Global Strategy Group poll has GOP incumbent Mast up 48-45 on Dem Baer [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Baer campaign. [Trump 53-44 | Cook: Likely R]

-- KS-03: Remington Research poll has GOP incumbent Yoder up 43-40 on Dem Davids [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. Poll was commissioned by the Yoder campaign. [Clinton 47-46 | Cook: Lean D] => This is pretty obviously an effort to keep Yoder from being totally triaged, as the NRCC just pulled out spending and public polling shows him as a dead duck. Davids also doubled his total in Q3 fundraising.

** Odds & ends:

-- AZ gov: Same Fox News poll has GOP incumbent Ducey up 55-37 on Dem Garcia. [Cook: Likely R]

-- TN gov: Same Fox News poll has GOPer Lee up 53-36 Dem Dean. [Cook: Likely R]

-- FL gov: Mason-Dixon poll has Dem Gillum up 45-44 on GOPer DeSantis [MOE: +/- 3.5%]. [Cook: Tossup]

posted by Chrysostom at 4:49 PM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

Kavenaugh had sixty five people sign a letter of support for him.

Now six hundred and fifty law professors have signed an op-ed in the NY Times saying he shouldn't be confirmed.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 4:50 PM on October 3, 2018 [61 favorites]

WaPo: Experts say USMCA frees Canadian data — but with unknown risks

MONTREAL — A few brief lines in the new North American trade agreement delivered a jolt in Canada, at least in some circles.

“No Party shall prohibit or restrict the cross-border transfer of information, including personal information” for business purposes, reads the text of the provisional deal signed Sunday between Canada, the United States and Mexico.

It adds that no member country can require a company to store “computing facilities” on its soil.

These measures mean abandoning rights that Canadians have often seen as privacy bulwarks against their powerful southern neighbor, especially in the post-9/11 era, in which sweeping legislation has given government agencies wide latitude to surveil individuals.

Physically storing Canadians’ data on their own land — a relatively common practice — kept it safe, some believed, from American surveillance agencies or from American police warrants.

Are we aware that China and Russia also have similar and recently enacted local data storage policies? In both countries, you're required to store user data locally for 6 months if you want to be legal.

This is a big f**king deal, because authoritarian regimes go "see but you did that agreement with Canada where it was cool so why can't we?"

Fuck.
posted by saysthis at 4:51 PM on October 3, 2018 [28 favorites]

zachlipton: Then the letter says says: "While we are limited in what we can say about this background investigation in a public setting, we are compelled to state for the record that there is information in the second post that is not accurate."

They're obviously playing a game here by making insinuations about something he can't speak about publicly, and it could well prove to be innocuous or de minimis.

Nah, I'm guessing it's definitely about references to alcohol, and the Republicans' defense would be that interviewees alluded to "excessive drinking" but not "alcohol abuse". Or perhaps even the same with regard to "inappropriate sexual behavior" versus "come on, it was just a bit of horseplay".

los pantalones del muerte: In others words, yes it is doomed eventually because all human things are, but we are not privy to the when or how, and I gladly close any tab when a story starts veering down that old warhorse of a narrative.

How Will The Blue Wave Stand Up Against the Eventual Explosion Of the Sun?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 4:52 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Kellyanne Conway Says Trump Has Treated Christine Blasey Ford ‘Like a Fabergé Egg’

“She’s been treated like a Fabergé egg by all of us, beginning with me and Trump,” she said, before questioning Ford’s veracity. “She provided her testimony, she still has no corroboration for her testimony … By Ford’s own testimony, there are gaps in her memory, there are facts that she cannot remember.”

Conway wasn’t the only White House official to sow doubt into Ford’s story in response to the president’s rally. During a press briefing, White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Trump was simply “stating the facts” during his tirade, and insisted that the president is still “very confident in his nominee, as he has said time and time again.”

Ceterum autem censeo Trumpem esse delendam
posted by kirkaracha at 5:06 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

Kellyanne wants attention when she says things like that. Don't give it to her.
posted by schmod at 5:08 PM on October 3, 2018 [15 favorites]

Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates - Domenico Montanaro, NPR

Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.

In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were "very important." Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.

posted by ZeusHumms at 5:16 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

- ND: GOPer Cramer up 53-41 on Dem incumbent Heitkamp.

Wait what? When the fuck did that happen? What?
posted by schadenfrau at 5:17 PM on October 3, 2018

Lindsey Graham’s head-turning defense of Trump isn’t what you think (Philip Bump, WaPo)

Graham’s argument is literally and exclusively Bill Clinton did it, too. That argument can be judged on its own merits.

That's the best spin that can be put on Graham's comments.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:18 PM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

Wait what? When the fuck did that happen? What?

There has been a big lack of polling in ND over the last few months. So hard to say. All we can say is that the last two polls of ND this week have been very bad. Don't give up hope yet, though, I believe the polling average was about +6R right before Heitkamp won re-election last time.

That said, I guess I shouldn't have pointed at ND as where we needed to focus some more money. I am the angel of death! Fear me.
posted by Justinian at 5:20 PM on October 3, 2018 [13 favorites]

A tale in two tweets about why DC mom Jessica Raven registered to run in her kid's PTA election:

3:27 PM - 27 Sep 2018 - y’all, a woman is running unopposed for PTA president at my kid’s school & tweeting in support of kavanaugh today. some days this fight feels so massive.

5:13 PM - 27 Sep 2018 - update: she is no longer unopposed 😬

Coverage from the WaPo, Because of Kavanaugh — and a tweet — people across the country suddenly care about a PTA election in D.C.
posted by peeedro at 5:22 PM on October 3, 2018 [84 favorites]

I've been assuming Hietkamp is a goner*, but there's a pretty good chance of a 50-50 split even if she loses. If Nelson's recent uptick is real, we win NV and AZ, and hold everywhere else, that's a tie, with potentially Bredesden or Beto giving Dems the Senate.

I'm more worried about McCaskill or Nelson ...or fucking Menendez... than I am about losing useless Hietkamp.

* - worth noting she was polling down double digits a month out in 2012 too and won. She was always going to be a long shot to win reelection from day 1.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:30 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

Maximum lulz in the election would be a 50-49 Democratic Senate on Nov 6th with a runoff in Mississippi between Espy and McDaniel to decide the fate of the country. So that might happen.

(A runoff is fairly likely but it will probably be between Espy and Hyde-Smith, which would make H-S the clear favorite. But the Espy-McDaniel matchup is possible!)
posted by Justinian at 5:36 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

CBS: Pompeo Announces Termination of 1955 Treaty With Iran After Sanctions Ruling

Further to this, Reuters reports: U.S. Withdrawing From Vienna Protocol On Dispute Resolution: Bolton

U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton said on Wednesday the administration was reviewing all international agreements that could expose it to binding decisions by the International Court of Justice calling the United Nations’ organ politicized and ineffective.[...]

Bolton also said the United States would withdraw from the “optional protocol” that gives the ICJ jurisdiction to hear disputes under the 1961 Vienna Convention of Diplomatic Relations.

The Vienna Convention is an international treaty setting out diplomatic relations between states. It is often cited as a means to provide diplomatic immunity.[...]

Bolton told a White House briefing that the withdrawal from the so-called “optional protocol” was related to a case brought by the “State of Palestine” in September challenging the recent U.S. embassy move from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

As for Bolton's description of Palestine, Bloomberg's Jennifer Epstein clarifies: "Asked about referring to the “so-called state of Palestine,” John Bolton says: “It is accurate. It is not a state.”"
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:36 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

Kellyanne wants attention when she says things like that. Don't give it to her.

It's an overtly absurd claim made by a narcissist's flying monkey, designed to show how she & her master can manipulate the media & lead it by the nose. The only response is no response. Prove them wrong.
posted by scalefree at 5:40 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

But the Espy-McDaniel matchup is possible!

you hush your oracle of doom mouth
posted by schadenfrau at 5:40 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

I was Brett Kavanaugh's college roommate.

I do not know if Brett attacked Christine Blasey Ford in high school or if he sexually humiliated Debbie in front of a group of people she thought were her friends. But I can say that he lied under oath. He claimed that he occasionally drank too much but never enough to forget details of the night before, never enough to “black out.” He did, regularly. He said that “boofing” was farting and the “Devil’s Triangle” was a drinking game. “Boofing” and “Devil’s Triangle” are sexual references. I know this because I heard Brett and his friends using these terms on multiple occasions.

posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:40 PM on October 3, 2018 [125 favorites]

Said so-called human John Bolton.
posted by riverlife at 5:41 PM on October 3, 2018 [13 favorites]

I'm a bit surprised at the relative silence following the NYTimes blockbuster on Trump's tax evasion schemes.

As is Trump ghostwriter Tony Schwartz:

—I'm astonished that the media isn't paying more attention to the Trump tax fraud story in the NYTimes. It blows to smithereens the myth of Trump as a successful businessman. It describes high crimes and misdemeanors -- more than grounds for impeachment and prison.

—The Times article on Trump's tax fraud is staggering. It makes clear that he has manipulated, misrepresented, lied, and cheated all his adult life. He has always feared he was a fraud & it'd clear now that is all he is. He & his siblings belong in prison.

—Let’s be clear: we have a president who is a criminal and whose crimes, were he anyone else, should have landed him in prison for the rest of his life. Incomprehensible that he is free. Insane that he is president.

—Trump says he could shoot someone in the street and his base would still support him. Can he steal $400 million from the government and be forgiven?

—Obviously Trump will totally deny the NY Times story detailing Trump's hundreds of millions of dollar of tax evasion and fraud. The truth is even worse, and much more will emerge.

—Re: Tax fraud : Trump is a major league grifter and that has always been his primary talent. I have said for two years that Mueller's findings will include massive examples of tax evasion, money laundering and other crimes that preceded his presidency.

(Presented in reverse chronology over the past day, since Schwartz doesn't believe in Twitter threads.)
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:42 PM on October 3, 2018 [75 favorites]

As for Bolton's description of Palestine, Bloomberg's Jennifer Epstein clarifies: "Asked about referring to the “so-called state of Palestine,” John Bolton says: “It is accurate. It is not a state.”"

Then it's part of Israel & its inhabitants are Israeli citizens. It's one or the other, can't have it both ways depending on which context you prefer at the moment.
posted by scalefree at 5:44 PM on October 3, 2018 [24 favorites]

Coverage from the WaPo, Because of Kavanaugh — and a tweet — people across the country suddenly care about a PTA election in D.C.

[Record-scratch] Hoooold on a second. This isn't a private school in a crunchy, white, wealthy part of Northwest DC. It's a non-charter public school in a solidly working-class, African American neighborhood --- the school is a block away from where I used to live.

This is an election precinct where only 2.7% of voters voted for Trump (only narrowly edging-out the write-in tally).

How the fuck does a Kavanaugh supporter even end up in this neighborhood, much less send their kids to the public schools, and run for the PTA? This is absolutely wild.
posted by schmod at 6:00 PM on October 3, 2018 [44 favorites]

FBI arrests suspect in Utah over Ricin scare

The suspect is a crazy asshole who is also a white male veteran from Utah without clear political affiliation, which explains why the story was completely dropped by the crankosphere after one day at a fever-pitch.

And the "ricin" sent to Mattis? Not ricin. "According to our preliminary analysis, the substance was castor seeds, from which ricin is derived. The FBI is still investigating."

So this story of the Pentagon being attacked with chemical warfare agents as the opening salvo of a wave of leftist terror is actually the story of a toxically-masculine manlet mailing Mattis some mildly toxic beans.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:56 PM on October 3, 2018 [46 favorites]

I'm done with the first section of Michael Lewis' The Fifth Risk, about the Department of Energy, and now have to deal with the worst case of the howling fantods I've ever had.

The fifth risk alluded to in the title, by the way, is Project Management.

We are so fucked.
posted by carsonb at 6:59 PM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

That said, I guess I shouldn't have pointed at ND as where we needed to focus some more money. I am the angel of death! Fear me.

Any suggestions/links for female Democratic candidates who can make good use of some more money?
posted by msalt at 7:01 PM on October 3, 2018 [1 favorite]

We are the FDR and JFK of American politics.

Combination FDR and JFK of American politics (FDR!).
Combination FDR and JFK of American politics (JFK!).
posted by srboisvert at 7:07 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Any suggestions/links for female Democratic candidates who can make good use of some more money?

I've donated to Jacky Rosen (Democratic Senate candidate, Nevada) and Stacey Abrams (running for Governor in Georgia). Rosen in particular seems to get sidelined in favor of Beto O'Rourke - who is awesome but really is monopolizing the oxygen in the D room. Rosen is running for a very flippable Senate seat (the R incumbent, Heller, is unpopular, Nevada has been trending more purple lately, and they elected Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat, to the other Senate seat in 2016).
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:08 PM on October 3, 2018 [12 favorites]

So this story of the Pentagon being attacked with chemical warfare agents as the opening salvo of a wave of leftist terror is actually the story of a toxically-masculine manlet mailing Mattis some mildly toxic beans.

However did the FBI manage to catch him so fast?

"Another U.S. official familiar with the investigation said that one of the four envelopes had a return address, which was used as a lead in the FBI's investigation."
posted by srboisvert at 7:12 PM on October 3, 2018 [35 favorites]

Make This Go Viral: The Voter Registration Deadline for Every State - Michael Harriot, The Root

Deadlines for all 50 states, including in-person, by mail, and online registration. Some are coming up as early as this weekend (Alaska). Many seem to be on October 9.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:26 PM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

#GrabYourBallot:

The 27 candidates on this list have one thing in common: they’re all Democrats running in especially tight midterm races for the U.S. House, U.S. Senate or U.S. governorships.

Many are women. There is also a link to donate to all 27 candidates on the list in one go.
posted by salix at 7:42 PM on October 3, 2018 [27 favorites]

What's the one democratic seat that looks likely to flip, in Likely R? Is that one of the Pennsylvania seats that got redistricted?

That is the Conor Lamb redux race. You'll remember Conor as the one who won the first special election of the year, last winter. The first drop of the blue wave, if you will. Lamb's now up 12 points and RNC has put Rothfus in the triage pool, so no more TV money.
posted by M-x shell at 7:52 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

Before I've remarked that we should drop minimizing terms like 'tax evasion' and 'white-collar crime' because it doesn't really convey the magnitude of the crime. Borrowing from the metric system, I said stealing a million dollars is a megacrime.

We've always known that Trump is a megacriminal. Dodging taxes makes you smart, he says so himself. But this tax fraud, half a billion, that puts him in the gigacrime order of magnitude.
posted by adept256 at 7:56 PM on October 3, 2018 [36 favorites]

@msalt:

Any suggestions/links for female Democratic candidates who can make good use of some more money?

For Texas reps, I have donated to MJ Hegar (who has been mentioned in a mega somewhere) as well as Adrienne Bell who is getting almost zero coverage here, but seems to be solid and I'll take a PoC any day of the week from now until... probably the heat death of the universe. Bell seems like a solid candidate and I hope she can ride the Beto/blue wave this mid-term, and I am super excited to see that she has more lawn signs out than Cruz.

(Yes, different races, but I am about to make a point.)

Over the last 3 months or so, my spouse and I have had an unusually large amount of time to visit places in Texas. We have driven... 1/3 of the state? Maybe 1/4? Depending on acreage or population you could argue either way.

Anyway, when I first saw the first Beto yard sign planted 6 or so months ago, I was ready for a flood of Cruz yard signs. I saw the first Cruz sign 1 month ago. My spouse saw two more signs just last week. A total of three signs in appx. 6 months. I am in this thread, so I think one can be assured I am keeping my eye out for them.

Beto signs are everywhere. In the travels we have taken, we have gone to areas that are so rural (and seem likely to vote red) that we didn't even have cell service. Even in those areas, we saw Beto signs, but no Cruz signs.

(Adrienne Bell signs are only about at 10% of the places Beto signs are, but that is something we are working on and no signs for (R) House of Reps at the 3 signs we have seen for Cruz.)

So, my parenthetical point from above? Texas has not always been a red state. Maybe only 20 years ago it was solid. SOLID!!!! blue. I don't know how I would recommend how people should donate to US midterm political races (or even if they should) based on a number of factors.

Those are the two female candidates that come immediately to mind because they are local-ish for me (and it's late. I haven't slept right for.... a while.)

I would love to hear, for example, Chrysostom list best women running in the mid-terms to donate to. (He probably has and I have forgotten.)

I really want Beto to win his race, but it seems like the money and time I can spend on it would get triple the impact in different races. And, more diversity (read: fewer white dudes) in Congress (House and Senate) is a good thing.

(Many apologies if this is disjointed. I keep circling back to this comment and have not slept well in a week. Mods, delete if necessary. I think I made sense, but I can barely keep my eyes open.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 8:09 PM on October 3, 2018 [13 favorites]

With more developments regarding Randy Credico, CNN's Andrew Kaczynski reports the Special Counsel's office has radio interviews between Roger Stone and alleged Wikileaks 'back channel'.

Audio of radio interviews between longtime Trump ally Roger Stone and the radio host he claimed was his back channel to WikiLeaks recently came into possession of special counsel Robert Mueller's office, two sources with knowledge of the matter tell CNN.

The interviews between Stone and comedian Randy Credico took place between August 2016 and April 2017 on Credico's radio show, which aired on local New York station WBAI. Stone has claimed that Credico served as his intermediary to WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange during the 2016 presidential election. Credico has denied the claim.

Shorter Twitter version:

In the interviews from Aug. 2016 - April 2017 Credico asks Stone questions about his Wikileaks source and in an interview Credico says he does not believe Stone has any back channel. Stone first claimed in Nov. 2017 that Credico was his Wikileaks source.

Stone has issued conflicting and often inaccurate statements on his knowledge about the timing and content of WikiLeaks disclosures.

Stone has also offered conflicting information about his source's relationship to Assange, repeatedly commenting in 2016 his source spoke with Assange but In his November 2017 Facebook post outing Credico, Stone said that Credico never confirmed WikiLeaks information with Assange

While the interviews do not rule out the possibility Credico served as the back channel, the former radio host told CNN he believes the content of the interviews back up his denials.

Kaczynski claims these radio interviews were not publicly available, but it's no coincidence they were made available to him just before Credico's appearance before the Senate Intelligence Committee.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:15 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

Any suggestions/links for female Democratic candidates who can make good use of some more money?
posted by msalt

We're a small, fairly-red district in East Tennessee but Renee Hoyos is running a righteous fight for US Congress against Tim Burchett. She's the kind of Democrat I'm proud to donate to (and, if my life were less of an omnishambles, I'd volunteer for as well.) She wears yellow because it was the signature color of the Suffragettes, who have a special place of honor here. I can't find any polling on this race but I know I've seen more Hoyos yard signs in the last two months than I've seen for every Dem candidate together since I moved here in 2005.

If you want to throw in with me...
posted by workerant at 8:24 PM on October 3, 2018 [7 favorites]

Kellyanne wants attention when she says things like that. Don't give it to her.

posted by schmod at 5:08 PM on October 3 [10 favorites +] [!]

What Kellyanne says is like what Ann Coulter says: it never adds anything to the conversation and makes you worse off than before. I move we never link to anything either one says ever again.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:25 PM on October 3, 2018 [30 favorites]

The F.B.I. Probe Ignored Testimonies from Former Classmates of Kavanaugh

Jane Mayer, Ronan Farrow (New Yorker)

Frustrated potential witnesses who have been unable to speak with the F.B.I agents conducting the investigation into sexual-assault allegations against Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, have been resorting to sending statements, unsolicited, to the Bureau and to senators, in hopes that they would be seen before the inquiry concluded.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:30 PM on October 3, 2018 [32 favorites]

The F.B.I. Probe Ignored Testimonies from Former Classmates of Kavanaugh

Jane Mayer, Ronan Farrow (New Yorker)
Frustrated potential witnesses who have been unable to speak with the F.B.I agents conducting the investigation into sexual-assault allegations against Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh, have been resorting to sending statements, unsolicited, to the Bureau and to senators, in hopes that they would be seen before the inquiry concluded.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 8:30 PM on October 3 [1 favorite +] [!]

It's all kabuki theater at this point. The only thing that matters is whether two of the three will vote against him.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:34 PM on October 3, 2018 [14 favorites]

@Yamiche: NEW Statement from counsel to Dr. Christine Blasey Ford: "We are profoundly disappointed that after the tremendous sacrifice she made in coming forward, those directing the FBI investigation were not interested in seeking the truth."

McConnell filed for cloture, which sets up a cloture vote on the floor on Friday.
posted by zachlipton at 8:41 PM on October 3, 2018 [31 favorites]

I don't know what her chances are, but Lisa Brown in Eastern Washington is running a nice race against a very conservative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (who has most of the media in the area supporting her, grumble).
posted by Death and Gravity at 8:43 PM on October 3, 2018 [5 favorites]

McConnell filed for cloture, which sets up a cloture vote on the floor on Friday.

If there's a plausible explanation besides "Mitch has the votes," I'm eager to hear it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:46 PM on October 3, 2018 [3 favorites]

Totally non-scientific thoughts on good women to donate to:

SENATE
There are four women Dems running for Senate who might need your help (whatever you think of DiFi, for example, she doesn't need your money):

Hietkamp [ND]
Rosen [NV]
McCaskill [MO]
Sinema [AZ]

Heitkamp is probably done, tbh. Sinema is probably got it done, plus she's the most centrist of the bunch. Rosen and McCaskill are probably best bets.

GOVERNOR
Women Dems in races from Lean D to Likely R:

Raimondo [RI]
Brown [OR]
Whitmer [MI]
Lujan Grisham [NM]
Abrams [GA]
Kelly [KS]
Mills [ME]

If it were me, I'd go with Abrams and Kelly, both of whom are running against very bad people. Abrams is legit exciting; Kelly isn't, but would still be a big help to Kansans.

HOUSE
There are a lot of women Dems running for the House (you may have heard). If you have someone close to your heart, that's cool. In terms of bang for the buck, though, my two cents is that you want to look at women in the Lean R category - where it's possible to win the seat, but we're not quite there yet.

FL-15 - Carlson
GA-06 - McBath
GA-07 - Bourdeaux
IL-13 - Londrigan
IL-14 - Underwood
MT-AL - Williams
NC-02 - Coleman
NE-02 - Eastman
NY-24 - Balter
SC-01 - Arrington
TX-23 - Ortiz Jones
TX-31 - Hegar
VA-05 - Cockburn
WA-03 - Long
WA-05 - Brown

posted by Chrysostom at 8:47 PM on October 3, 2018 [37 favorites]

If there's a plausible explanation besides "Mitch has the votes," I'm eager to hear it

either mitch has the votes or mitch is bad at counting the votes. which tbf has happened before (mccain’s thumbs down moment).
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 8:48 PM on October 3, 2018 [2 favorites]

Federal judge temporarily blocks Trump administration from ending TPS. Judge Chen cited various Trump statements as evidence that the decision to end TPS for Salvadorans, Nicaraguans, Hatians, and Sudanese could have been motivated by racial descrimination, including Trump's comments about Mexican immigrants, Hatian immigrants "all have AIDS" and Nigerians would "never go back to their huts." The judge concluded that the immigrant groups were likely to prove that the government carried out a predetermined presidential agenda rather than presenting a rational basis for the policy change.

Here's a link to the ruling (pdf download)
posted by zachlipton at 8:48 PM on October 3, 2018 [35 favorites]

Rust Moranis: "If there's a plausible explanation besides "Mitch has the votes," I'm eager to hear it."

The explanation is that Mitch *thinks* he has the votes. As we saw with the ACA, this is not 100% congruent with actually having the votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:49 PM on October 3, 2018 [6 favorites]

Unfortunately, McCain has left the building.
posted by perhapses at 8:53 PM on October 3, 2018

If there's a plausible explanation besides "Mitch has the votes," I'm eager to hear it.

He may have the votes, but he's going to want to press forward at this stage regardless; there's no way he's letting taking the pressure off his members. I've seen a bunch of speculation that he could take it to the floor even if he knows he doesn't have the votes: it forces three Republican Senators to be the ones to do the deed and puts all the pressure on them, rather than him giving them a break by avoiding a vote. It also lets all the blame lie on them, and not him and the leadership.

If the nomination fails, I think there's a decent chance we see it fail on the floor; there's just not a whole lot of reason for him to pull it first.
posted by zachlipton at 8:53 PM on October 3, 2018 [30 favorites]

WSJ, White House Finds No Corroboration of Sexual Misconduct Allegations Against Kavanaugh in FBI Report

Well, I, for one, am completely convinced by a midnight anonymous leak from the White House about a report (which the story says White House officials may not have finished reviewing) produced without talking to the complainant, accused, or any of the witnesses who tried to come forward.
posted by zachlipton at 9:23 PM on October 3, 2018 [39 favorites]

Never-Trumper Tom Nichols:

It's not that decades-old accusations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh don't matter, it's that they are less concretely provable than his display of unacceptable temperament just days ago. That's his immediate disqualification, not the accusations.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:29 PM on October 3, 2018 [16 favorites]

WSJ, White House Finds No Corroboration of Sexual Misconduct Allegations Against Kavanaugh in FBI Report

@lrozen: truly, know less after reading this piece, twice, than before

This is not the Journal's finest work, I must say. Even Axios is usually better than this, and that's not much of a bar to clear.
posted by zachlipton at 9:35 PM on October 3, 2018 [4 favorites]

I mean, how COULD you find corroboration through an investigation designed not to. The people that could corroborate Ramirez were not even interviewed. Such a fucking sham. Any time people begin to corroborate, these jackals are basically plugging their ears, like "LA LA LA LA LA! I can't hear you!"
posted by p3t3 at 10:32 PM on October 3, 2018 [9 favorites]

And like, was anybody even waiting for a White House report? Seems a little unnecessary, but I suppose we can assume not a lot of work went into it anyway, so ultimately little was wasted.
posted by rhizome at 11:29 PM on October 3, 2018

100,000 U.S. Christian Churches Demand Withdrawal of Kavanaugh's Supreme Court Nomination

A group representing 100,000 congregations and 45 million churchgoers across an array of Christian denominations in the U.S. has called for the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to be withdrawn…

When you're losing even your base…wow, just WOW.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 1:15 AM on October 4, 2018 [50 favorites]

When you're losing even your base…wow, just WOW.

While it's a good thing that the NCC is demanding Kavanaugh's withdrawal, the people they represent were never Trump's base.

They are explicitly the 'other' sort of Christians that his white evangelical/charismatic base thinks are not "Real True Christians" in the first place. You know, the kind who actually believe quaint stuff like, "love your neighbor", where 'neighbor' is explicitly defined as those who society would have you hate. Large portions of the leadership are women and PoC.
posted by bcd at 2:11 AM on October 4, 2018 [68 favorites]

When you're losing even your base…wow, just WOW

Eh,the NCC is made up of mostly mainline Protestant denominations, and not really the most problematic fundamentalist denoms supporting Trump. Most notable denoms not among them are the Southern Baptists and Pentacostals.
posted by Rykey at 2:29 AM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

So apparently there are people who go to all of Trump's rallies as if they were Phish concerts or college football games.

@davidmdrucker: MEMPHIS — Just interviewed Trump voter/volunteer who tells me she’s attended more than 30 MAGA rallies. Explains it’s a network of people who’ve met there & become friends. “You have your regulars & your first-timers.” #TNSEN
posted by octothorpe at 3:01 AM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

So apparently there are people who go to all of Trump's rallies as if they were Phish concerts or college football games.

...with highly similar needs for emotional affirmation and mutual shoring-up of the group identity, no doubt.

I mean, lookit: this is welcome news. It means, A, that his actual, motivated audience is smaller than it might appear, if there's a floating corpus of a few hundred bodies that fills out the crowd, and B that there are opportunities to identify the members of that corpus whenever they appear in promulgated footage, publicly call out the fact that these are members of a traveling cult, and keep hammering on the notion that his audience is so small that he has to round out his arenas with ringers.

We know Trump is acutely sensitive to imputations about size — audience and, er, otherwise. I'd be inclined to make hay with this finding while there is hay to be made.
posted by adamgreenfield at 3:25 AM on October 4, 2018 [74 favorites]

Social Media Is Revolutionizing Warfare

Former National-Security Adviser Michael Flynn was one of the first to exploit the new battlefield that would ultimately help bring him down.

posted by Joe in Australia at 3:53 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

The WaPo's Trump whisperer Robert Costa has an article that seems to be floating a "blame McGahn" message in case the Kavanaugh nomination fails, McGahn’s last stand: The White House counsel has been working feverishly to get Kavanaugh confirmed:

Trump, who has had several shouting matches with McGahn over the ongoing Russia investigation during their time together in the White House, has fumed to associates as Kavanaugh has struggled that McGahn pushed the nominee on him and that he barely even knows the federal judge, according to a White House official and three Republicans involved in the discussions.
...
But Kavanaugh, too, has had tense moments with McGahn. Kavanaugh’s allies have wondered behind the scenes whether McGahn’s confidence was shared throughout the rest of the White House, the three Republicans said, adding that talks over the judge’s media strategy have been strained.
...
Friends say McGahn is driven by his desire to oversee the confirmation of a second Supreme Court justice before he leaves, as well as his own partisan anger toward the Democrats for their tactics. The person close to McGahn said the White House counsel was instrumental in urging Kavanaugh to be combative and raw during his opening statement before the Senate Judiciary Committee last week.

posted by peeedro at 4:09 AM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

I know what matters is votes not quotes, but this is a pretty good quote.

"I urged the president to nominate a different individual. I urged the president to nominate a woman," Sasse said.

He recounted the experiences of two personal friends he said were raped, adding that the #MeToo movement has been "complicated," but also a "very good thing."

And then Sasse turned back to Trump: "We all know that the president cannot lead us through this time."

posted by OnceUponATime at 4:26 AM on October 4, 2018 [19 favorites]

the White House counsel was instrumental in urging Kavanaugh to be combative and raw during his opening statement

McGahn definitely needs to go into a legal role where he doesn't have to prep people for testimony.
posted by jaduncan at 4:29 AM on October 4, 2018 [17 favorites]

I just watched the whole Sasse speech. 'Lots of women are sexually assaulted. It's bad. Dr. Ford was obviously in pain. But a yes vote isn't a message that we don't believe women or care about women and anyone who thinks it is has fallen prey to the media circus, reality tv politics, and tribalism.' He can go fuck himself.
posted by ruetheday at 5:34 AM on October 4, 2018 [100 favorites]

Meanwhile: Western intelligence agencies reveal a string of global cyberattacks by Russia’s military (WaPo)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:55 AM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

But a yes vote isn't a message that we don't believe women or care about women and anyone who thinks it is has fallen prey to the media circus, reality tv politics, and tribalism.

This is the needle they will continue to thread, right up until they vote to confirm: they want to be able to claim they believe Blasey-Ford was assaulted (except many don't), and that they care (none of them do), but they think she's mistaken and it wasn't Kavanaugh or it can't be proved, so ...

Literally the only reason they give a shit that Trump attacked Blasey-Ford is because it makes the aforementioned needle-threading harder.
posted by tocts at 6:04 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

Happening now: The Senate begins reviewing FBI report as White House stands by Kavanaugh (WaPo)

“Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats plan to hold a news conference at 11 a.m. to speak about the FBI report, which they have characterized as rushed and too limited in scope.”
posted by Barack Spinoza at 6:07 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

Meanwhile: Western intelligence agencies reveal a string of global cyberattacks by Russia’s military (WaPo)

From the article:

Moscow dismissed Britain’s allegations as a delusional and a “diabolical perfume blend.”

“They mixed up everything in one bottle, which could be a bottle of Nina Ricci perfume: GRU, cyber spies, Kremlin hackers, and the WADA. This is just a diabolical perfume blend. The imagination of our UK colleagues is truly boundless. Who invented the whole thing? I’d like to see them. They’re simply [Hans Christian] Andersens,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said at a press briefing on Thursday.

If you needed any more evidence that Russia's #1 export is "straight up trolling", there you are.
posted by Strange Interlude at 6:10 AM on October 4, 2018 [29 favorites]

Decades of Trump family tax fraud doesn’t bother conservatives who demanded Obama be “vetted” - Simon Maloy, Media Matters

Such hypocrisy is to be expected, I suppose, but it’s still wild given all the dire warnings conservatives sounded about what a secret radical president would mean for U.S. policy. The situation we now face is that a sitting president with a long-standing record of fraud and tax evasion is responsible for overseeing the IRS and directing tax policy. The Times article describes the intricate, intra-familial schemes the Trumps devised so Fred Trump could line the pockets of his children without paying taxes. Are we just going to assume that similarly fraudulent arrangements do not exist between Donald Trump and his children, one of whom is a senior official in his White House?

posted by ZeusHumms at 6:17 AM on October 4, 2018 [41 favorites]

Huh. Is "perfume blend" a standard or common colloquialism in Russian for a melange of different things, or was Zakharova just going for some homophibic/femiphobic stuff in addition to a denial?
posted by sotonohito at 6:18 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

The nerve agent they carried out a poisoning with in the UK was carried in a perfume bottle by the two spies/cathedral enthusiasts.
posted by Artw at 6:20 AM on October 4, 2018 [47 favorites]

Is "perfume blend" a standard or common colloquialism in Russian for a melange of different things, or was Zakharova just going for some homophibic/femiphobic stuff in addition to a denial?

The Skripal assassins transported the Novichok poison in a bottle of Nina Ricci perfume.
posted by PenDevil at 6:20 AM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

Who nominated Judge Kavanaugh?
 • The President.
Who authorized the investigation?
 • The President.
Who limited the scope of the investigation?
 • The President.
What was the stated purpose of the investigation?
 • To provide evidence regarding allegations against Judge Kavanaugh, including allegations made by Dr Ford.
Who is the most important witness in regard to Dr Ford's allegations?
 • Dr Ford.
Was she willing to testify?
 • She was eager to testify.
Was she interviewed as part of the investigation?
 • No.
Why not?
 • It doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter because there is no possibility that Dr Ford's willing testimony could be considered inessential to an investigation of her allegations. There is no possibility that Dr Ford's public questioning, not by professional investigators but by United States Senators (albeit with some of them ceding their authority to a hired lawyer) could substitute for private testimony issued to a professional investigator. Even if it could be substituted, there is no plausible reason that such willing testimony would be rejected as part of a sincere investigation with the sincere purpose of obtaining evidence regarding Dr Ford's allegations.

It is not necessary to accuse the FBI of participating in a cover-up, or to criticize the FBI or even to MENTION the FBI, in order to find that this so-called investigation is an insult by the President to the American people, its scope having been truncated by the President to such a degree that it cannot begin to achieve its stated purpose. Its true purpose is to make it easier for certain people to pretend that Dr Ford's allegations have been investigated.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 6:21 AM on October 4, 2018 [105 favorites]

this so-called investigation is an insult by the President to the American people, its scope having been truncated by the President to such a degree that it cannot begin to achieve its stated purpose. Its true purpose is to make it easier for certain people to pretend that Dr Ford's allegations have been investigated.

I do not even think the true purpose is that rational. I believe the true purpose is "FUCK YOU, YOU CAN'T STOP ME", and the subsequent outraged "Librul Tears!" you see blanketing the media today.

To perform their performative cruelty, they assume that the outrage is merely performative, too.

They are unable to credit anyone with good faith, because they can't understand it.

Their honest reactions are as Sasse put it, "anyone who thinks it is has fallen prey to the media circus, reality tv politics, and tribalism."

Tribalism, huh?

So apparently there are people who go to all of Trump's rallies as if they were Phish concerts or college football games.

tl;dr: They're evil. And I have no idea how fight it better.
posted by mikelieman at 6:32 AM on October 4, 2018 [24 favorites]

A Former Obama Operative Built a New Anti-Republican Attack Machine
posted by M-x shell at 6:37 AM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

Mikelieman - Just want to clarify, those are my words paraphrasing Sasse's speech, not a quote.
posted by ruetheday at 6:42 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Senators are now starting a tightly controlled process of viewing the FBI report. It's not being released publicly.
posted by Miko at 6:44 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Such hypocrisy is to be expected, I suppose, but it’s still wild given all the dire warnings conservatives sounded about what a secret radical president would mean for U.S. policy.

Vetting Obama was the vehicle they used to disqualify him publicly but not the real reason, racism. They see tax fraud the same way, a tool to disqualify a choice they'd already made for other reasons, tribalism & accelerationism. He's their Ra's al Ghul, the man who'll tear down a system they don't understand or want & replace it with one they do. As long as they think he's doing that everything else will be seen as venal sins, forgivable.
posted by scalefree at 6:46 AM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

Senators are now starting a tightly controlled process of viewing the FBI report. It's not being released publicly.

What we need from each Senator possessed of a soul and a conscience is to enter the SCIF, read the document, memorize a chunk of it Fahrenheit 451-style, and bring it out to share with the rest of us.

What a sham this is, what a stain.
posted by adamgreenfield at 6:47 AM on October 4, 2018 [57 favorites]

A Former Obama Operative Built a New Anti-Republican Attack Machine

They’re members of the so-called Resistance, working to oust Republicans. And they’re being directed by a former J.P. Morgan banker named John Burton

HOW DO I DO THIS?
posted by bluesky43 at 7:09 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

To perform their performative cruelty, they assume that the outrage is merely performative, too.

They are unable to credit anyone with good faith, because they can't understand it.

Their honest reactions are as Sasse put it, "anyone who thinks it is has fallen prey to the media circus, reality tv politics, and tribalism."

Tribalism, huh?

Cruelty to those they deem lesser (so they feel free to belittle them at every turn and seek to strip them of all resources and recourse) is a feature and not a bug for these people. You can't even call it dog whistling because they WANT us to hear it.

I don't believe that they honestly assume any outrage to their behavior is performative. They know everyone who's upset is truly upset. They simply don't care because, yes, tribalism of the rich white men and their hangers-on. And they will damn well make things to go their way, and they have the ball now, and fuck you, that's why. They may be slightly more sophisticated in how they put those points across, but truly, they are no better than Cheeto himself at an operational level. He is merely their id.
posted by droplet at 7:12 AM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

If there's a plausible explanation besides "Mitch has the votes," I'm eager to hear it

File under: Slim Chance But Maybe - McConnell may be interested in putting this to bed regardless of whether he has the votes guaranteed or not because a Kavanaugh defeat on the floor could still have some benefits for the GOP. 1) Some recent polling suggests that the Kavanaugh fight has energized the Repub base, so being able to spin a story about K being a "martyr" plus "STOLEN SC SEAT!!1!!" might give them a push in the midterms. 2) I don't see that there's anything preventing them from pushing an equally horrible but less contentious nominee in the lame duck session post-election, which gives cover to the wafflers; "Hey, we turned down the Worst Nominee Evar, so clearly this next nominee is totally normal and non-partisan."
posted by soundguy99 at 7:19 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Any suggestions/links for female Democratic candidates who can make good use of some more money?

Audrey Denney in California's 1st.

Trump won by miles and miles in this district, but people are not fond of incumbent Doug LaMalfa, who is a foul and useless being. I really think Audrey has a chance.
posted by elsietheeel at 7:24 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

White House confirms FBI’s Kavanaugh investigation only looked at what Republican senators wanted

I'm not shocked, but I still want to scream.
posted by jet_pack_in_a_can at 7:29 AM on October 4, 2018 [61 favorites]

Mikelieman - Just want to clarify, those are my words paraphrasing Sasse's speech, not a quote.
posted by ruetheday

Please don't paraphrase and put quote marks or apostrophes around what you're saying. I thought it was a direct quote.
posted by agregoli at 7:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [32 favorites]

So this whole sham FBI "investigation" is really about whether the Collins/Flake et al group will be appeased by a smoke and mirrors move by the republicans. Has there been enough pressure on them to give them cover to vote NO? or is the investigation going to cover them to vote yes? this isn't really about any other senators is it? all the dems should be solid NO, and the r's solid yes? Is there anything else to look for in all of this?
posted by OHenryPacey at 7:43 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

I was including him the flake/collins group
posted by OHenryPacey at 7:48 AM on October 4, 2018

From Kyle Griffin:

Current and former FBI officials confirmed to NBC News that dozens of witnesses have come forward to FBI field offices who say they have information on Brett Kavanaugh, but agents have not been permitted to talk to many of them.

Everything I saw from intelligence-connected folks on twitter gave the impression they were itching to investigate this and do it right. If Trump's relationship with the FBI was strained before, keeping them on a leash and using them as props in a political game isn't going to help.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [50 favorites]

So this whole sham FBI "investigation" is really about whether the Collins/Flake et al group will be appeased by a smoke and mirrors move by the republicans. this isn't really about any other senators is it?

From jet_pack's link just above:

Asked why the FBI was not permitted to investigate whether Kavanaugh had memory lapses — as his former Yale roommate and other former classmates have alleged — Shah argued that no Senator who matters wanted to know.

“All the folks that are demanding this type of investigation in the Senate are Democrats who have already pledged to vote no. They don’t want additional information to make a decision. They want to delay this process.”

So, no. It isn't.

Now that a perfunctory 'investigation' has been conducted, I fully expect Flake to register Serious Concerns [tm John McCain] and then vote Yes with a clear conscience. So it comes down to (a) if Collins and Murkowski are sufficiently mortified by Trump's mockery and/or the Fund Collins's Opponent fundraiser to vote No, and (b) if Heitkamp is sufficiently mortified by her poll numbers to kneejerk over to Yes.
posted by delfin at 7:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

GOP Senate Judicary: No problems found in an investigation that took less time than one of tRump's toilet tweetstorms.

Also, as to the question of Republican women and their support of such horribleness. I've moved among them my whole life, and believe me, the conservative's capacity for bottling up the cognitive dissonance, for maintaining their comfortable status quo at the expense of any real questioning or reason, is boundless.

They or their daughters would never be raped. (Unless it was at the hands of an illegal.) Just like if THEY were black, they would just be nice to our heroic police officers and nothing bad would happen because it never has. etc. etc.
posted by NorthernLite at 8:10 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

He may have the votes, but he's going to want to press forward at this stage regardless; there's no way he's letting taking the pressure off his members.

Waist deep in Big Muddy and the damn fool says "Press on!"
posted by octobersurprise at 8:10 AM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

octothorpe: So apparently there are people who go to all of Trump's rallies as if they were Phish concerts or college football games.

mikelieman: tl;dr: They're evil. And I have no idea how fight it better.

Shaming and shunning by family members doesn't do anything, as told in this sad story of "Trump’s Biggest Fan," Lynette Villano, a 72-year-old grandmother hasn't seen her grandson since the spring of 2016 because she is an ardent Trumpeter and he's what I would consider a clear-eyed young man who realizes that the comparison to Reagan and Trump are apt. Yet none of that has shaken her devotion to Trump, which makes me so very sad.
posted by filthy light thief at 8:12 AM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

Seeing reports on Twitter that Schumer is saying, having seen "the report," he agrees there's no hint of misconduct. Scuse me while I go scream into a pillow for the next five hours.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:20 AM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

TIME's cover story this week: "How Christine Blasey Ford’s Testimony Changed America".

The cover is powerful.
posted by mazola at 8:21 AM on October 4, 2018 [30 favorites]

$10 million spent in ads for and against Kavanaugh, though conservatives have outspent liberals; and the sources of the funds are unclear, because advocacy organizations on both sides are able to keep donors' contributions secret.

Also from NPR today: Who Talked To The FBI In The Kavanaugh Case — And Who Didn't?

So who did talk with the feds?

NPR has confirmed the identities of six people whom the FBI interviewed as part of its investigation:

• Kavanaugh's high school friends P.J. Smyth, Mark Judge, Tim Gaudette, Chris Garrett
• Ford's friend Leland Keyser
• A second Kavanaugh accuser, Deborah Ramirez.

Who else might have?

It wasn't immediately clear who the three other people might be. A number of Kavanaugh's former high school or college classmates have come forward to describe his conduct from their youth, including a North Carolina State University professor, Chad Ludington.

But there were no indications on Thursday morning as to whether the FBI might have talked with him or the other former classmates, or with people recommended by other witnesses whose names aren't public.

Emphasis mine, because that's only NINE PEOPLE, despite dozens of people who voluntarily came forward to offer information but were denied because this is all a fucking sham. Doubly so, because ...

Who else didn't talk with investigators?

A third woman who has leveled allegations against Kavanaugh and Judge, Julie Swetnick, evidently was never contacted by the FBI, according to her attorney.

Ramirez's attorney also said on Thursday that she had given investigators the names of a number of people from her college days who she said could corroborate allegations she has made against Kavanaugh. The FBI apparently did not talk speak with any of them.

posted by filthy light thief at 8:23 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

Seeing reports on Twitter that Schumer is saying, having seen "the report," he agrees there's no hint of misconduct. Scuse me while I go scream into a pillow for the next five hours.

It seems this could be a totally factual statement, since the report studiously avoided anyone who had any interest in suggesting there was misconduct by Kavanaugh.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 8:23 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

the turtle's teeth: Seeing reports on Twitter that Schumer is saying, having seen "the report," he agrees there's no hint of misconduct.

The quote I'm seeing is the exact opposite: "I disagree w Sen. Grassley's statement that there was no hint of misconduct." Goes on to say that the investigation's process was much too limited, that a redacted form of the findings should be made public, etc.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:24 AM on October 4, 2018 [53 favorites]

Here is a heartbreaking [and graphic, heads up –cortex] letter to Dr. Ford, from Connie Chung.

Christine, I, too, am terrified as I reveal this publicly. I can’t sleep. I can’t eat. Can you? If you can’t, I understand. I am frightened, I am scared, I can’t even cry.

Will my legacy as a television journalist for 30-plus years be relegated to a footnote? Will “She Too” be etched on my tombstone instead? I don’t want to tell the truth. I must tell the truth. As a reporter, the truth has ruled my life, my thinking. It’s what I searched for on a daily working basis.

Christine, I know the truth, as you do.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 8:26 AM on October 4, 2018 [70 favorites]

Looks like they have the cover they wanted. CNN congressional reporter Jeremy Herb:

Sen. Collins says "it appears to be a very thorough investigation." She plans to go back and read the full report later

posted by a snickering nuthatch at 8:28 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

TIME's cover story this week: "How Christine Blasey Ford’s Testimony Changed America".

A little early to say, don't you think, Mr. Luce? Oh well, it's a HuffPo world.

In my more cynical moments I'd think this was part of a strategy to get people to back down in relief, "good job everybody, glad we could knock that one out of the park," in which case, fuck you Time Magazine.
posted by rhizome at 8:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Hey, that Connie Chung letter describes an incident that is terrible, and pretty graphic. Just FYI for folks - be informed before you click. Her abuser was her family doctor, and she provides very specific details.
posted by anastasiav at 8:32 AM on October 4, 2018 [27 favorites]

Hey, that Connie Chung letter is terrible, and pretty graphic. Just FYI for folks - be informed before you click. Her abuser was her family doctor, and she provides very specific details.

Sadly, it was required for the point that sadly needed to be made.

There are details you don't bother to remember. There are details you can never forget.

The primary attack against Dr. Ford is that she doesn't remember things about the incident, and this is the atomic bomb of refutation.

Connie Chung deserves a Pulitzer for this.
posted by mikelieman at 8:35 AM on October 4, 2018 [22 favorites]

Sadly, it was required for the point that sadly needed to be made.

Yes, I get that. My point was that other people who have been through the same might want to be informed about the content before they click the link.
posted by anastasiav at 8:37 AM on October 4, 2018 [22 favorites]

Seeing reports on Twitter that Schumer is saying, having seen "the report," he agrees there's no hint of misconduct.

Expect a lot of bad reporting about the FBI investigation's report, including outright disinformation from not only the rightwing noise sphere but also outside actors (Russian bots/trolls have, of course, been pushing the Kavanaugh controversy like crazy). In such cases, it's always best to cite sources and examples here in the mega-threads.

Here's @FoxNews, to clear things up: ".@SenSchumer: “We have many fears that this was a very limited process, that would constrain the FBI from getting all the facts.”" He adds (in the embedded video), "Having received a thorough briefing on the documents, those fears have been realized."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:40 AM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

Looks like they have the cover they wanted. CNN congressional reporter Jeremy Herb:

Sen. Collins says "it appears to be a very thorough investigation." She plans to go back and read the full report later

Unsurprisingly, Flake, too, looks like:

Jeff Flake tells reporters: “We’ve seen no additional corroborating information”

posted by cudzoo at 8:40 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Sadly, it was required for the point that sadly needed to be made.

Yes, but it's basic courtesy to provide a warning of some sort for people who have been traumatized, and for MeFites it's kind of a standard approach when linking to this kind of material.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:41 AM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

The Daily Show provides the bitter mirth we need with its trailer for CSI: Limited Investigation. (The video embedded in that tweet is graphic, blood-wise, like a typical CSI episode.)
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:41 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Connie Chung deserves a Pulitzer for this.

It is very powerful writing.

A warning, which seems obvious, but no serious: do not read the comments. Holy fuck, do not read the comments. There are many that you would swear are parody at the opening until it becomes clear that whatever monster wrote it is 100% serious.

Do not read the comments.
posted by tocts at 8:42 AM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

Mod note: Breaking from traditional practice to toss a little warning into that comment, in lieu of just chucking it because it was obviously not ill-intentioned. Folks, please do try to give a warning for that kind of super hard stuff so folks know what they're getting into.
posted by cortex (staff) at 8:44 AM on October 4, 2018 [27 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:

-- Slew of polling from UC Berkeley. Irritatingly, they don't provide a lot of detail, and just say that MOE is from 4 to 6%.

- CA-10: Dem Harder up 50-45 on GOP incumbent Denham. [Clinton 49-46 | Cook: Tossup]
- CA-22: GOP incumbent Nunes up 53-45 on Dem Janz. [Trump 52-43 | Cook: Solid R]
- CA-25: Dem Hill up 50-46 on GOP incumbent Knight. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]
- CA-39: Dem Cisneros up 49-48 on GOPer Kim. [Clinton 51-43 | Cook: Tossup]
- CA-45: Dem Porter up 52-45 on GOP incumbent Walters. [Clinton 50-44 | Cook: Tossup]
- CA-48: Dem Rouda tied 48-48 with GOP incumbent Rohrabacher. [Clinton 48-46 | Cook: Tossup]
- CA-49: Dem Levin up 55-41 on GOPer Harkey. [Clinton 51-43 | Cook: Lean D]
- CA-50: GOP incumbent Hunter up 49-47 on Dem Campa-Najjar. [Trump 55-40 | Cook: Lean R]

-- FL-16: UNF poll has GOP incumbent Buchanan up 49-40 on Dem Shapiro [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. [Trump 54-43 | Cook: Lean R]

-- MI-08: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Bishop up 47-44 on Dem Slotkin [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Trump 51-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- VA-10: CNU poll has Dem Wexton up 51-44 on GOP incumbent Comstock [MOE: +/- 4.1%]. Clinton 52-42 | Cook: Lean D]

** 2018 Senate:

-- MI: Glengariff Group poll has Dem incumbent Stabenow up 56-33 on GOPer James [MOE: +/- 4.0%].

-- FL: Mason-Dixon poll has Dem incumbent Nelson up 47-46 on GOPer Scott [MOE: +/- 3.5%].

** Odds & ends:

-- MI gov: Same Glengariff poll has Dem Whitmer up 47-35 on GOPer Schuette. [Cook: Lean D]

posted by Chrysostom at 8:44 AM on October 4, 2018 [17 favorites]

The quote I'm seeing is the exact opposite: "I disagree w Sen. Grassley's statement that there was no hint of misconduct."

Thank you, that's a relief. Not sure if what I saw was deliberate misinformation or if I just misread in my general haze of rage.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 8:44 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Additionally @SenateDems has a longer video: "Happening now: @SenSchumer and @SenFeinstein react to the staff briefing on the FBI’s update to Judge Kavanaugh’s background check."

Feinstein, noting that the report's confidentially means she can't talk about a lot of it, does say "But what I can say is that the notable part of this report, is what is not in it."
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:45 AM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

What's that vent page URL again? I feel myself slipping into that rage-tinged depression. Again.
posted by DrAstroZoom at 8:45 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Feinstein, noting that the report's confidentiality means she can't talk about a lot of it

Jesus Christ, Feinstein. Just keep upholding those norms.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:48 AM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Folks, please do try to give a warning for that kind of super hard stuff so folks know what they're getting into.

Thank you and sorry, realized too late and missed the edit window.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 8:48 AM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

Thanks, Doktor Zed, for being so on top of the Dem-senator-reaction story as it shifts. I really appreciate the hand back from the edge, as I assume do a couple-few of us.
posted by adamgreenfield at 8:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Grassley is my Senator. I called his office to respond to his claim that "neither the Judiciary Committee nor the FBI could locate any third parties who can attest to any of the allegations." I suggested that the reason the FBI could not locate these third parties is because they were specifically prohibited from locating them, by the President. I said I believed that Senator Grassley was conspiring with the President to lie to the American people and falsely claim that an investigation in which neither the accuser nor the accused were interviewed constitutes a sincere investigation of these disturbing and disqualifying allegations. I asked that Senator Grassley stop lying to the country, and stop being a traitor to the country. I was thanked and my message will be passed along
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 8:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [59 favorites]

Time for a general strike yet? Or do we wait for Kavanaugh's inevitable confirmation?
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:56 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Republicans engineer sham FBI report

Metafilter: Damn that Schumer and Feinstein, at it again!

I mean, i get that we have exhausted our anti-republican blame and hate glands and are looking for imperfect democrats to take on the burden, but lets at least wait until they do something bad.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 8:57 AM on October 4, 2018 [39 favorites]

While the situation does not look particularly good right now, Kavanaugh's confirmation seemed inevitable two weeks ago. Since then, we have managed to make enough noise to force several delays. It looks like the cloture vote will happen tomorrow for a final vote on Saturday. However, it is not inevitable that a vote will take place, especially if the public can bring enough pressure down on wavering Senators.

Today's script for being a pain-in-the-ass by letter, fax, or phone. Here's the Senate Directory.

Senator [name],

I demand that Brett Kavanaugh's nomination be rejected or that the FBI background investigation be expanded before a vote on cloture or confirmation. The latest background investigation was designed by Donald Trump's White House and his Senatorial henchmen.

* Dozens of witnesses came forward to speak with the FBI about Kavanaugh's behavior. The FBI was not permitted to speak to material witnesses to the conduct under question, including Doctor Blasey Ford herself.

* The FBI report itself has not been adequately shown to our Senators, nor to the public generally.

* Kavanaugh's lack of candor itself, about his relationship with alcohol as a young man, is inherently disqualifying from the federal judiciary.

* Kavanaugh's unhinged, partisan ranting in front of the Judiciary Committee disqualifies him from the federal judiciary. His display of unabashed partisan preference for Republicans taints every decision he has render as a judge and will taint any decision he is party to on the Supreme Court.

[For Democrats: I expect you to use every procedural method available to slow Senate business in order to either extend the FBI probe to include the ignored witnesses or delay the vote as long as possible.]

[For Republicans: I expect you to do everything in your power to stop this nomination. Seating Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court disgraces both the Senate and the Court, given the grave questions that remain as to his conduct. If you vote to confirm him, I will campaign against you, donate to your opponents, and forever characterize you as someone who supports sexual assault as a practice.]

Sincerely,
[your name]

Keep calling, writing, and faxing, no matter the party of your Senators. This process must be as painful as possible for anyone looking to vote for Kavanaugh.

If you need or want more points to pressure senators, here is a compilation of the script I've written over the last two weeks or so, in no particular order. Here is the one with contact information for the SJC.

Even if he is confirmed, we can still make Kavanaugh's life a living hell by believing the survivors of his assaults and amplifying their voices. If the Democrats take the House, we can force real investigations into Kavanaugh's past behavior. He has already demonstrated that he lacks the temperament to be a judge--I believe he can be goaded into more damaging, disgraceful conduct in public, particularly if subpoened by a Congressional body.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:00 AM on October 4, 2018 [70 favorites]

He said under oath that he did not know about Deborah Ramirez's allegations until they were public.

There are text messages showing he was discussing those allegations months beforehand.

Nothing more need be said. He perjured himself in that particular case.

Even if Ramirez is libelling him maliciously, he said he did not know about it, when there is proof he anticipated that she would say what she said. Even if it's flat out libel, he still perjured himself about it.
posted by ocschwar at 9:00 AM on October 4, 2018 [58 favorites]

>A Former Obama Operative Built a New Anti-Republican Attack Machine

I can't even on this one. It's got it all: ex-JP Morgan, capital-R "members of the...Resistance," the credibility of a 501(c)4, fanning out for volunteers so that they don't, I don't know, do their own independent work or work for an organization with transparency, the word "operatives," and so on. Apparently this guy's big Get was part of the "how many McCain homes are there?" which involved...searching public records? And running a call-center operation?

[Membership grew] as activists discovered, in Moser’s phrase, how to “use your phone to fight Trump.”

You sure it wasn't ex-banker operatives glomming onto people who were already using it for activism? This guy is exactly the people who send me 10 political voicemails a day during election season. And remember, Obama did a lot of manipulative Cambridge Analytica shit, too.

"Burton was racked with guilt that he hadn’t done his part to stop Trump"

༼ ༎ຶ ෴ ༎ຶ༽

I should have included this one alongside my "sapping the opposition from the inside" comment above. I'm so sick of these dudes (usually dudes) parachuting in with clumsy Obama-lite "Citizen Strong" organization names.

But hey, sure, take out Rohrabacher and we can talk.
posted by rhizome at 9:02 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

What's that vent page URL again? I feel myself slipping into that rage-tinged depression. Again.

Current venting thread link.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:05 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

GOP Sens. Flake and Collins express satisfaction with FBI report, increasing odds of Senate confirmation of Kavanaugh

::bangs head on desk::
posted by jet_pack_in_a_can at 9:06 AM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Some information about the report, in format if not substance:

@jbendery:

Sen. Kennedy says the FBI report is this big [photo of him demonstrating with his hands]
I asked Sen. Kennedy if he thinks it's weird that there's only one copy of the FBI report that each party has to alternate between looking at every other hour.
"I think Washington DC is weird. I think this whole place is weird."
Kennedy said he didn't know if he could say this, but that the FBI interviewed Mark Judge for three hours.

@pdmcleod:

It's this big and they only made one physical copy for Republicans and Democrats to take turns reading one day before the vote??
Ok more info on this. The FBI investigators talked to about ten (some conflicting reports, it may be nine) witnesses, which makes up about 100 pages. There are also thousands more pages of tips that came in. Senator Durbin said he browsed through a few and they weren't credible.

So more than the four witnesses that were initially discussed, but Ramirez's lawyers say she provided more than 20 people to talk to, and most weren't contacted.
posted by zachlipton at 9:15 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

The Fix Is In, Folks - Josh Marshal, TPM Editorial
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:16 AM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

Last night Hirono was on Maddow, I think, saying the Dem Jud Com senators were made aware of Kavanaugh's original background investigation pointing to evidence of either alcohol abuse or sexual assault. She said they were not permitted to talk about it.

Question: What penalty would a Dem Jud Com senator suffer if he or she did indeed talk about what they knew? Does anyone know the exact rule governing this situation?
posted by ImproviseOrDie at 9:17 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

If the retiring Senator Flake's strategy really is to ram Kavanaugh's nomination through on false pretenses while pretending he doesn't want to... Why?

I assume Flake has presidential ambitions. Solid Republicans, the people who actually care about getting Kavanaugh confirmed, hate his guts. Flake could be making a brand for himself as the principled centrist who stood up against Trump and in favor of justice and women's rights. Instead it appears he's going to be remembered as The Man Who Briefly Whimpered At Evil. This is not going to win votes.

Perhaps the motivation of these people can never be truly comprehended without access to bank records in the Cayman Islands.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:18 AM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

I emailed Mike Enzi, which will make no difference whatsoever, but was oddly pleasing nonetheless.
posted by aspersioncast at 9:18 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Joe Manchin ‘Undecided’ On Kavanaugh, Notes Allegations Are From Judge’s Youth

Let's not let the perfect be the enemy of allowing GOP control of the judicial branch for the rest of our lives.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:18 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

I would be furious with Manchin voting Yes if the chamber was 51-49 Democrats. You'll have noticed that it is not.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:21 AM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

American Principles Project, a right wing 501(c)(3), has written a letter to the Washington Post demanding that they remove the identification of Jennifer Rubin as a "conservative" on their opinion page because, among other sins, she has come out against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.

Among the signatories are the usual suspects such as Brent Bozell, Gen. Boykin, Gary Bauer, Ken Cuccinelli, Jim DeMint and Michelle Malkin.

The interesting signature is Ginni Thomas, wife of Clarence Thomas. Apparently Clarence is pining for a genuine compatriot on the bench to commiserate. They should get along just fine, with common interests.
posted by JackFlash at 9:24 AM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

I'm going to be furious with Manchin voting Yes. I don't give one shit about the party balance.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:25 AM on October 4, 2018 [31 favorites]

If the retiring Senator Flake's strategy really is to ram Kavanaugh's nomination through on false pretenses while pretending he doesn't want to... Why?

He Is A Bad Person
posted by dilaudid at 9:26 AM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

American Principles Project, a right wing 501(c)(3), has written a letter to the Washington Post demanding that they remove the identification of Jennifer Rubin as a "conservative" on their opinion page because, among other sins, she has come out against the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh.

Rubin is squawking about her association with the Right? Good, don't let up! She still has a lot to answer for.
posted by rhizome at 9:26 AM on October 4, 2018

If the retiring Senator Flake's strategy really is to ram Kavanaugh's nomination through on false pretenses while pretending he doesn't want to... Why?

I assume Flake has presidential ambitions. Solid Republicans, the people who actually care about getting Kavanaugh confirmed, hate his guts. Flake could be making a brand for himself as the principled centrist who stood up against Trump and in favor of justice and women's rights. Instead it appears he's going to be remembered as The Man Who Briefly Whimpered At Evil. This is not going to win votes.

Hardcore conservatives, the people who scoff at being called 'Republicans' because 'Republicans' are soft liberal pansies, hated John McCain's guts because McCain was not a rubber stamp for their agenda. Mind, he did not actually impede their agenda in meaningful ways; the one time in the past decade that McCain actually stood for anything was against a bill so fundamentally broken that even its sponsors acknowledged that it was a placeholder. On things that mattered, John McCain was as much of a modern conservative as any of the rest of their ilk.

But John McCain cultivated a reputation as a Maverick Principled Centrist by at least pretending to act independently, by Whimpering Serious Concerns At Evil before bending the knee repeatedly, and was therefore taken seriously by the media. He was somewhat lionized upon his death instead of being laughed right into the ground, which is a genuine misstep by all participants but nevertheless happened.

Jeff Flake sees a Vacancy sign on the office of Maverick Principled Centrist, and is close to his new career of Saying Maverick Principled Centrist Things On TV Please Buy The Book I'll Write.
posted by delfin at 9:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

I assume that state level investigations based on the NYT expose of Trump are impossible to stop, regardless of whether Mueller is actually fired.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

If the retiring Senator Flake's strategy really is to ram Kavanaugh's nomination through on false pretenses while pretending he doesn't want to... Why?

As of January 1, Flake is going to be in the unemployment line. You don't get that sweet, sweet lobbying money without appeasing the billionaire right-wing welfare donors.
posted by JackFlash at 9:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

As of January 1

January 3.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:33 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

I assume that state level investigations based on the NYT expose of Trump are impossible to stop, regardless of whether Mueller is actually fired.

Assuming that institutional justice is impossible to stop has been a bad bet.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:33 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

Flake has been shopping for a cable news gig for months now. Demonstrating a flair for drama is a great audition tactic.
posted by zachlipton at 9:34 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Just called the Senate Judiciary Committee and actually got through, which means more calls need to go in. Got a snotty little staffer boy who was rude AF. He remained on the line while I said my piece, said in a very flat tone of voice, "I'll pass that along", then hung up on me when I asked what he was going to tell Grassley.

Slam the fuckers with calls and make the staffers question all of their life choices that led them to answer phones for Charles "I support sexual predators" Grassley. Here's the SJC number: 202-224-5225.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:37 AM on October 4, 2018 [36 favorites]

East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: Instead it appears he's going to be remembered as The Man Who Briefly Whimpered At Evil. This is not going to win votes.

I think it could because some find it relatable. There are Kavanaughs absolutely everywhere. The mushy middle finds such men and anyone who cheers for them disgusting. But anyone who strongly stands up to the creeps, drawing lines in the sand, is also alienating because of what it implies about one's own inaction, or one's own uncertainly about Grabby Uncle Phil.

Thus, weakly allowing Kavanaugh into the SCOTUS looks, through some centrist eyes, like a normal omnivorous diet in contrast with those meat-eaters who explicitly relish the suffering of animals and the sanctimonious vegetarians who lecture you about what you eat (I've never met any, but that's the stereotype). It's the just-right baby bear's porridge. The population of Goldilocks-minded voters dwindles every day, but it's still a constituency.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:39 AM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

I'm going to be furious with Manchin voting Yes. I don't give one shit about the party balance.

Exactly. These guys (guys, mostly) talk about strategic voting, not alienating their moderate Republican constituents (ha!) so they can get that narrow margin of victory and keep that precious seat so they can cast The Vote When It Really Matters.

Guess what, senators? This is it. This is the vote that matters. This is the hill to die on. If you don't see that, we don't need you in the Senate.
posted by martin q blank at 9:39 AM on October 4, 2018 [48 favorites]

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posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 9:39 AM on October 4, 2018 [29 favorites]

single Dem should start to refer to him as "Tax-dodge Donnie" from now on

Just call him Dodger Donnie, which covers taxes, questions, and Vietnam.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 9:39 AM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

Slam the fuckers with calls and make the staffers question all of their life choices that led them to answer phones for Charles "I support sexual predators" Grassley. Here's the SJC number: 202-224-5225.

Just to be clear - Judiciary no longer is in control of the nomination. They have voted in favor of the nominee and moved it on to a floor vote. I don't doubt it would be cathartic to call, but technically it has now moved off their desks.
posted by anastasiav at 9:41 AM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Guess what, senators? This is it. This is the vote that matters. This is the hill to die on. If you don't see that, we don't need you in the Senate.

Think of all the powder he's kept dry though
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:41 AM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

As of January 1, Flake is going to be on the unemployment line. You don't get that sweet, sweet lobbying money without appeasing the billionaire right-wing welfare donors.

As if Democrats, CNN, and any other media outlet wouldn't give Flake limitless airtime for taking a stand here. It's the kind of thing they looooooooooooove - a "maverick" who "risked it all"; the "man" who swooped in and saved all the "helpless damsels." He can vote no and still have a lucrative career. He won't get booked on Hannity, but he'll be all over the mainstream shows. If he votes yes, it's because he supports Kavanaugh's policy positions, demeanor, and predilection for assaulting women. It's a myth that voting no would impact Flake's life in any material way. There is no implicit threat of annihilation here. He's an already-wealthy white dude who the media is obsessed with. He can vote no and be just fine. Voting yes is a choice.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:41 AM on October 4, 2018 [26 favorites]

Because it's the 60s again. Let's finish it right this time, fellow longhairs.

WSJ congressional editorial: Pot-Smoking Agitators Burst Into My Office
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:42 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Joe Perticone of Business Insider: A staffer comes up from the floor where the Kavanaugh FBI report is being held carrying a frying pan. I don’t know.

It would be helpful to know the party the staffer belongs to; it's clear that the Republicans cooked up the report, and the Democrats are panning it
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 9:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [17 favorites]

Just to be clear - Judiciary no longer is in control of the nomination. They have voted in favor of the nominee and moved it on to a floor vote. I don't doubt it would be cathartic to call, but technically it has now moved off their desks.

You're certainly right that the nomination has moved from committee, but I think the strategic value is that it ties up staffers by putting them on the defensive from as many angles as possible. I see no reason to give the SJC's majority any respite from their despicable behavior and reprehensible lack of judgement, especially if you have the bandwidth after contacting your own Senators.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 9:51 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Live stream of protests.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 9:51 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

How the FBI’s Kavanaugh Report Could Become Public - Jim Newell, Slate

Instead, per McConnell’s second-in-command, Texas Sen. John Cornyn, Republicans might allow some sort of “public statement” or “summary” of the allegations to come forth. But he doesn’t want that because it will appease Democrats. He wants it because he believes it will publicly clear Kavanaugh’s name.
…
“I’m not going to speculate, before we have the report, on what will be done with it,” Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal said. Another reporter asked if the idea of reading it into the record had come up. Blumenthal paused for several seconds.

“Has the—I’m not going to comment on ideas that may come up,” he said.

The other main option is McConnell choosing to make it public. All options are improbable, but not impossible.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:51 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

zachlipton: Senator Durbin said he browsed through a few and they weren't credible.

Funny that Senator Durbin was the one to make the call on credibility.

And by funny I mean fucking outrageous. BASED ON WHAT? Why is he the one to assess credibility and not the FBI?

Because we should celebrate every small win: Atlanta To Change Names Of Streets That Honored Confederacy (NPR, Oct. 4, 2018)

Atlanta is changing the names of three streets that echo the city's Civil War past.

Confederate Avenue will become United Avenue, East Confederate Avenue will become United Avenue S.E. and Confederate Court will become Trestletree Court on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
...
Many local governments have taken similar measures, including San Antonio ([Robert E.] Lee High School changes name to LEE [Legacy of Educational Excellence] High School to avoid link with Confederate leader) and Richmond (School honoring Confederate general renamed Barack Obama Elementary, among other name changes that took place on July 1, 2018). Others, such as the state of North Carolina, have decided that Confederate monuments will remain in place.

posted by filthy light thief at 9:54 AM on October 4, 2018 [35 favorites]

WSJ congressional editorial: Pot-Smoking Agitators Burst Into My Office

The Republican Goochland County, Va supervisor showed his support for Andy Harris by making a "joke" about shooting the protestors.
posted by peeedro at 9:56 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Named for Sir William Gooch, royal lieutenant governor of Virginia (1727-1749).
posted by Chrysostom at 9:59 AM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Really frustrating this morning that I found myself in a room with aides for Grassley and Ernst, but I was there in my capacity as a government employee representing an organization that has a mishmash of federal, state and local funding so I could not make my feelings on Kavanaugh known in that setting.
posted by jason_steakums at 9:59 AM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

> How the FBI’s Kavanaugh Report Could Become Public - Jim Newell, Slate

I tried to ask New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, but like most Senate Democrats considering a run for president, he is guarded by staffers and walks fast, with long strides, to escape spontaneous interactions with reporters.

Ha! I needed that laugh this morning. *Sigh*
posted by homunculus at 10:00 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Guess what, senators? This is it. This is the vote that matters.

It really kinda isn't, because even if this nomination fails there's an infinite supply of other right-wing doofuses to nominate, one of which would be nominated and confirmed before 3 January even on the offchance that the Senate flips. It would be fun and energizing to watch Kavanaugh fail... for about a week, until it was Coney Barrett or whoever sailing through confirmation.

In any case, Manchin or Heitkamp or whoever aren't trying to keep their powder dry for when they need it. They're just trying to get reelected, which they think means doing some shitty conservative stuff that they probably never minded doing in the slightest. They aren't secret liberals doing the best they can in a tough environment.

It's just that getting upset at Manchin or Donnelly or Heitkamp is kinda pointless because the alternative to any of them is not a frankenstein patchwork of Sanders and Thurgood Marshall and whathisface from the west wing; the alternative that WV or SD or IN would send to the Senate instead of them is basically a baboon flinging poop at you while it screams racial slurs.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 10:02 AM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

Josh Marshall of TPM: White House Begins the China Counter-Narrative. Basically, it sounds like the WH plan for the mid-terms is to beat the drum that China are interfering with the elections...in other words, destabilizing confidence in the very electoral process--i.e., exactly what the Russian government wanted in interfering in 2016. It doesn't now matter if the Chinese government are doing this--the insinuation is enough to cast more doubt

To be clear, China is a major player in international espionage aimed at the United States. And much of the back and forth trade hard ball is happening. American businesses are deeply embedded in China, both literally and figuratively. The Chinese are thus able to exert a deep and profound influence in the US private economy and in politics. Just recently China has been successfully pressuring airlines to stop referring to Taiwan as a separate country, as opposed to part of China, using the threat of pulling licenses to run commercial flights in and out of the country. That’s not really relevant to the issues here. But it’s a good example of the pull.

So the point here isn’t that China is getting a bad rap. But what is being discussed here is different in kind from what Russia was involved with in 2016 – not least because Russia appears to have been conspiring with now-President Trump’s entourage to get the help. But the bigger point is that this real issue is now clearly being used to diminish the Russia issue and specifically to delegitimize the Russia investigation.

What a mess. People wonder why some of us are not willing to eat with Trumpists or just forgive and forget for what they did in voting for this loathsome criminal.
posted by Excommunicated Cardinal at 10:02 AM on October 4, 2018 [33 favorites]

There are also thousands more pages of tips that came in. Senator Durbin said he browsed through a few and they weren't credible.

This seems like quite a major point: there was a fairly blatant attempt by RW trolls (and potentially even the Russian Republican support team) to flood the media with false accusations after Swetnick released her allegation. Effectively building a haystack to cover all the needles. If the FBI just included all they'd got without even basic whittling then they've effectively been acting as an agent for those trolls in helping bury the genuine, credible, accusations that are there. They've limited the actual investigation to the point of absurdity, and gish-galloped the information provided by people providing real substantive corroboration.

It also suggests some complicity on behalf of someone in the FBI, or at the very least pressure from above that they buckled to*.

The other thing is that this is utterly blatant kayfabe, they wouldn't go to such lengths to hobble the investigation if they didn't know that if they didn't it was going to support the allegations. As such anyone voting to confirm him are doing so with the full knowledge that he is a lying** belligerent drunk and serial sex predator.

This really seems like it should be accessory after the fact for all of them. Anyone voting for him are taking the stain of that guilt on themselves. Then, these are the same people putting children in concentration camps in the desert, it's hard to stain black any darker.

* Extreme wishful thinking: it's possible that Mueller has had a hand in this, letting Trump move his queen forward as he knows he can remove him from the board when provident. As this is pretty clear obstruction of justice, in that it's Trump attempting to install a justice to protect him, it is within his remit to investigate.

** As Josh Marshall noted on the Twitter, with the Devil's Triangle thing Kavanaugh not merely lied under oath, but did so at length with manufactured details, there's no possible explaining it as a misstatement rather than a malicious fabrication.
posted by Buntix at 10:07 AM on October 4, 2018 [19 favorites]

If Kavanaugh has enough Republican votes to get confirmed, I'm fine with Manchin et al. doing whatever is most expedient politically. When it matters for the outcome I'll care. In the meantime I want them fighting for their survival, whatever that happens to look like.
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 10:09 AM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

The Brett Kavanaugh case: This is how white male privilege is destroying America - Chauncey Devega, Salon

Kavanaugh isn’t just a person who happens to be white and male. He represents a class exerting its power
…
Superficially, the goal is to present Kavanaugh as a man and a human being who just happens to be white, male and angry and has suffered a great disservice. If viewed through such a lens and framework, what reasonable and rational person would not be angry?

This is French's main ploy and distraction. What he and other right-wing defenders of Kavanaugh want to avoid is a discussion about angry white men as a group, one with a distinct and clear set of political priorities and goals.

What do these angry white men want? It's an easy question to answer. They want to rule over and control all areas of American life, both private and public.

But here Kavanaugh's defenders fail in their insincere efforts to present him as the universal subject and a stand-in for all men (or women) unjustly accused of a crime.

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:10 AM on October 4, 2018 [26 favorites]

Kavanaugh, the poster boy for toxic privilege, just doesn’t get it - Lucian K. Truscott IV, Salon

Women and people of color are gaining on [white men with privilege], and they are scared to death

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:12 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

WaPo, At Trump’s big city hotels, business dropped as his political star rose, internal documents show

Those investors — and internal documents they provided — showed that revenue at both properties dropped noticeably as Trump’s political career took off. The decreases have stirred tensions in the buildings and left many investors worried that the Trump brand may be curdling in the liberal cities where Trump built much of his empire.

In New York, documents show that the ownership board at Trump’s hotel considered the stunning idea of removing the Trump name from the hotel the president still calls his “flagship.” The idea stalled. One board member, who spoke in favor of keeping the Trump name, was later nominated by Trump to a celebrity-studded presidential council on fitness.

For the small-time investors — who bought individual hotel rooms, under an unusual arrangement that allowed Trump to offload financial risks onto others — the downturn has brought a bitter sense that they’re suffering for the political rise of a figure who is now loathed in their communities.
...
Between 2015 and 2017, revenue from room rentals at the New York hotel declined 14 percent after adjusting for inflation, according to quarterly statements the Trump Organization provided to unit owners. At Trump’s hotel in Chicago, a document investors saw last week showed a similar drop-off. Bookings fell 8 percent from 2015 to 2016, and this year’s figures are still lower than the pace in 2016.

At both hotels, the Trump Organization told investors that it did have some good news: In recent months, their losses had been cushioned, partly by new customers from overseas. Both hotels noted an influx of visitors from Saudi Arabia.

If you read on, you'll find that the board member who fought to keep Trump running the property withdrew his name from consideration for the council in June, yet when asked for comment now, sent an email containing 62 exclamation points in a row and then signed it "Stephen Soloway . . . Presidents Council for Sports Fitness & Nutrition." Also, the Saudis make frequent appearances.
posted by zachlipton at 10:16 AM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

It really kinda isn't, because even if this nomination fails there's an infinite supply of other right-wing doofuses to nominate, one of which would be nominated and confirmed before 3 January even on the offchance that the Senate flips. It would be fun and energizing to watch Kavanaugh fail... for about a week, until it was Coney Barrett or whoever sailing through confirmation.

Judges do more than just issue opinions. They are also managers of employees and colleagues of coworkers. There are a lot of women who work at the Supreme Court, including most of the public information office and many clerks. There IS an actual difference between Kavanaugh and Coney Barrett. One is known to abuse women in policy and in practice. One is known to abuse women only in policy.

A vote for Kavanaugh is a vote to put every woman working at or with the Supreme Court in danger of being sexual harassed or assaulted. This is more than just policy.
posted by melissasaurus at 10:17 AM on October 4, 2018 [77 favorites]

Senator Merkley (D-OR) on CNN: This is a complete cover-up; a pretend investigation; an embarrassment for the FBI; the White House has done a great disservice to women who come forward. They didn't find anything because they didn't interview people who asked to be interviewed.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 10:18 AM on October 4, 2018 [90 favorites]

I'm always a fan of stunts, so I don't understand why the Democrats aren't gathering up the people who tried to come forward and were ignored by the FBI, calling up an array of TV cameras, and personally escorting them to the Hoover Building.

The New Yorker identifed Kenneth Appold last night, a Princeton Theological Seminary professor, who says he heard about the events Ramirez described when they occurred and can cooborate her account. He never heard back from the FBI, though he submitted a statement on their website. Why not fly out Appold and other witnesses and put on a little show to demonstrate how fake this investigation is?
posted by zachlipton at 10:31 AM on October 4, 2018 [77 favorites]

I called Kamala Harris's office asking that she politicize the FBI investigation as that link outlines, and the staffer said the investigation was over and that now she was focused on getting Senators to vote no. I mean, I'm not questioning Kamala Harris's political instincts, and yeah, No votes are what we want, but as explained by the staffer ... let's just accept the FBI report as a totally valid fait accompli and get Senators to vote no anyway? Um, good luck with that? I didn't even get a "I'll pass your comment along."
posted by salvia at 10:34 AM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

The New Yorker identifed Kenneth Appold last night, a Princeton Theological Seminary professor, who says he heard about the events Ramirez described when they occurred and can cooborate her account. He never heard back from the FBI, though he submitted a statement on their website. Why not fly out Appold and other witnesses and put on a little show to demonstrate how fake this investigation is?

That's a great idea. Have a series of witnesses interviewed (ideally by retired FBI agents) at a public hearing held by the Democratic Leadership. Just drag it out over weeks running up to the election.
posted by leotrotsky at 10:35 AM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

@mkraju: Murkowski also said there were “readers” reading the report aloud to senators. She was also asked if based on what she knows, does she agree with Susan Collins that Kavanaugh probably would NOT overturn Roe v Wade, she said: “I would concur.”

This doesn't mean it's what's actually going to happen when the time comes, but they're all clearly getting ready to vote for him.

----

WaPo, Congressional Republicans tentatively agree to raise federal worker pay, rebuffing Trump. 1.9% raise and a lift of the salary freeze for executive-level and appointees (which includes Pence and the Cabinet, a portion of the deal Democrats oppose)
posted by zachlipton at 10:37 AM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

who the hell would want to expose themselves to media scrutiny and a horde of bots and trolls to testify at a meaningless show hearing?
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:38 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

Excommunicated Cardinal: Josh Marshall of TPM: White House Begins the China Counter-Narrative. Basically, it sounds like the WH plan for the mid-terms is to beat the drum that China are interfering with the elections...in other words, destabilizing confidence in the very electoral process--i.e., exactly what the Russian government wanted in interfering in 2016. It doesn't now matter if the Chinese government are doing this--the insinuation is enough to cast more doubt

Remember back in Sept. 2016, Donald Trump’s theory that the Democratic National Committee hack could have been the work of a 400-pound hacker or China directly contradicted the U.S. intelligence community, "but more importantly, it gave the tech world its favorite hashtag for Monday night’s debate." (USA Today coverage at that time)

Everybody focused on the 400 lb hacker, no one paid attention to the notion that China was behind it. Now we're back to China.
posted by filthy light thief at 10:38 AM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

All of the above, plus: If all the Democrats vote no, then the Republicans own this travesty. So give them no cover whatsoever, and slap them with it every day until the elections. Until the end of time, actually.

And maybe, just maybe, if that impending outcome is clear to the GOP, then one or two of them peel off.
posted by martin q blank at 10:42 AM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

There’s absolutely no way they will secure all the Rep votes without a Dem vote. They need that cover.
posted by Artw at 10:49 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

There’s absolutely no way they will secure all the Rep votes without a Dem vote. They need that cover.

I don't think the Republicans actually care.
posted by all about eevee at 10:53 AM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Flake, Murkowski and Collins absolutely do care.
posted by Artw at 10:55 AM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

@sarahposner (Sarah Posner): *Nuns* write to Senators pleading with them to vote no on Kavanaugh.
posted by christopherious at 10:55 AM on October 4, 2018 [55 favorites]

Can we please table the discussion on hypothetical future votes? If you can do something concrete like contacting your senator, please do so. If you need to vent, there’s a separate thread for that.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:56 AM on October 4, 2018 [26 favorites]

An impartial, nonpolitical FBI: just another thing that died this year.

Hoover would be proud.
posted by Dashy at 10:57 AM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

The FBI was never non-political.
posted by Chrysostom at 11:02 AM on October 4, 2018 [55 favorites]

Politico:

Democrats are quietly preparing to launch a slew of investigations into the Trump administration's health care moves if they retake the House in November, aiming to freeze the White House's efforts to unravel Obamacare and probe the administration's care of immigrant kids.

The wide-ranging inquiries, coordinated across multiple committees, would focus on the administration’s most controversial actions on health care, which include chipping away at the Affordable Care Act, urging the courts to gut the health law's protections for pre-existing conditions, and separating migrant families at the border, lawmakers and aides told POLITICO.

posted by Chrysostom at 11:05 AM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Updating 538's midterm election forecasts, Nate Silver observed earlier this morning:

There's some nice symmetry in our forecast right now. Basically we're looking at:
1 in 4 chance that Democrats win both Senate and House
1 in 2 chance that the GOP keeps the Senate but Democrats win the House
1 in 4 chance that the GOP keeps both chambers.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Reminder: 538 also gave Trump about a 1 in 4 chance to win in 2016.
posted by Doktor Zed at 11:11 AM on October 4, 2018 [22 favorites]

The Latest Republican Rhetoric Around Brett Kavanaugh's Accusers Is Grotesque. Mitch McConnell's crew is relentless.

Voter Suppression Is Deeply Embedded in the Republican Party. Brett Kavanaugh Helped Put It There. So did Don McGahn. There's a reason one is shepherding the other onto the Supreme Court.

> Federal judge temporarily blocks Trump administration from ending TPS.

This Ruling Is Why Conservatives Are So Hopped Up on Brett Kavanaugh: They want—and need—to outnumber people like Judge Chen in the federal judiciary.
posted by homunculus at 11:15 AM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

Robert Costa: Breaking news from Fargo... Sen. @HeidiHeitkamp a "no" on Kavanaugh
posted by PenDevil at 11:15 AM on October 4, 2018 [114 favorites]

Good for her.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:16 AM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Breaking news from Fargo... Sen. @HeidiHeitkamp a "no" on Kavanaugh

That's heartening, especially in the face of her latest poll numbers. It might mean they can pull the coalition together.

Regardless though, thank you for your vote, Senator, even if it fails. It means a lot to me and to many other survivors.
posted by lydhre at 11:17 AM on October 4, 2018 [59 favorites]

In case Heitkamp's website is crashing for anyone else, here's the ActBlue link for her campaign.
posted by melissasaurus at 11:34 AM on October 4, 2018 [21 favorites]

Russian Official Linked to Natalia Veselnitskaya, the Trump Tower Lawyer, Is Dead < Daily Beast
posted by Harry Caul at 11:50 AM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

Senator Cornyn (R-TX) on CNN: "The FBI received all the authority they needed to interview anyone they wanted."

I am reasonably confident that this is a complete and total lie. Since this investigation was created and conducted exclusively by the Executive Branch, Senator Cornyn may not even be certain whether he is lying. But he's trying, god damn it
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 11:57 AM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

Bloomberg reporter Mike Dorning:

NOTE: FBI Director Wray is documenting what’s happening behind the scenes in order to help ensure the bureau’s activities in the Kavanaugh investigation are captured and perhaps made public one day.

The tweet was probably supposed to link to this story.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:06 PM on October 4, 2018 [14 favorites]

"I urged the president to nominate a different individual. I urged the president to nominate a woman"....and made it clear to him that the penalty for ignoring my plea would be nothing.
posted by benbenson at 12:11 PM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

I anticipate if Dems have the gavel in either chamber, there will be an investigation of the FBI's activities here, in particular what restrictions were laid on, and by whom.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:17 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

A Democratic House could be just as investigation-hungry as Obama's Republican House was, with the advantage of actually having things to investigate
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

A Democratic House could be just as investigation-hungry as Obama's Republican House was, with the advantage of actually having things to investigate

It's on us to look forward to looking backwards, because they're already looking forward to looking forward.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:23 PM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

> NYT with a big major feature, Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father: The president has long sold himself as a self-made billionaire, but a Times investigation found that he received at least $413 million in today’s dollars from his father’s real estate empire, much of it through tax dodges in the 1990s.

Democracy Now interview with lead author David Barstow:

NYT Exposé: “Self-Made Billionaire” Donald Trump Built Empire on Father’s Money, Tax Dodging & Fraud

Trump Faces Probe into Tax Fraud After NYT Exposes How He Helped Parents Scam Millions from Gov’t
posted by homunculus at 12:27 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

It's on us to look forward to looking backwards, because they're already looking forward to looking forward.

Yeah, Obama or not, this time no spoons.
posted by petebest at 12:35 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

@elainaplott: —Thursday: Senators read FBI report. My source tells me Flake is “still having issues.” What issues? I ask. “I honestly don’t know anymore. Have you ever seen Hamlet?”

@erinscafe: "God hath given you one face, and you make yourself another."
posted by zachlipton at 12:35 PM on October 4, 2018 [34 favorites]

A Democratic House could be just as investigation-hungry as Obama's Republican House was, with the advantage of actually having things to investigate

And the Republicans have already been pointing out likely targets in the subpoenas they've refused to issue, witnesses they've refused to call, and avenues of inquiry they've refused to pursue.

Just like Kavanaugh, just like Trump, the Republicans have plenty to hide, and they obviously act like it.
posted by Gelatin at 12:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Have you ever seen Hamlet?

A flake, a very palpable flake.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

What a piece of work is man
posted by angrycat at 12:46 PM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

To be [morally unconscionable], or not to be [handed a cushy lobbyist job]
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:47 PM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

@lilueamadan: Retired U.S. Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens, a lifelong Republican, told a small crowd in Boca Raton that Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s performance at confirmation hearings should disqualify him. “The Senators should pay attention to this.”

They...they don’t do this. It’s pretty remarkable.
posted by zachlipton at 12:48 PM on October 4, 2018 [117 favorites]

"God hath given you one face, and you make yourself another."
posted by homunculus at 12:48 PM on October 4, 2018

Steve Schale on the upcoming election in Florida. Warning: Long.
posted by wittgenstein at 12:48 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Updates from Hart:
@garretthakke:

Hart anti-Kavanaugh protest getting bigger & louder.

This is by far the largest and best-organized Anti-Kavanaugh demonstration I’ve seen yet. Bigger than any indoor Obamacare-repeal vote protest I can recall, too.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:49 PM on October 4, 2018 [60 favorites]

The entire Kavanaugh nomination process stinks on ice, so it's likely that so-called "moderate" Republicans are seeking the cover of "bipartisanship." It's notable that swing state Senators like Donnely and Heitkamp already announced they're voting the right way. Their doing so puts even more pressure on the likes of Collins, Murkowski, and Flake, and is all the more reason to lobby Manchin to remain in solidarity with his caucus in this vote.
posted by Gelatin at 12:49 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

NRSC cancelling ad time in ND Senate, so they think they've got that one in the bag, presumably.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

@SenatorMenendez:
Just read the FBI report on Kavanaugh - if that’s an investigation, it’s a bullshit investigation. [video]
posted by Atom Eyes at 12:52 PM on October 4, 2018 [59 favorites]

Yglesias response to that Menendez tweet:

Literally nobody else in the senate is better-equipped to know what a rigorous FBI investigation looks like.
posted by Chrysostom at 12:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [85 favorites]

Flake is “still having issues.” What issues? I ask. “I honestly don’t know anymore.”

“Oh wait, the attempted raping! It's definitely all the attempted raping,” he didn't add.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 12:57 PM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

Menendez:
"You don't get a lot of corroboration if you don't talk to corroborating witnesses..."

It's really that simple, isn't it.
posted by Namlit at 12:57 PM on October 4, 2018 [53 favorites]

Cornyn with a take so hot it's burning through the hull: Kavanaugh is being martyred for his white-dudeness.

@jbouie
Sen. Cornyn, defending Kavanaugh: "We remember that Atticus Finch was a lawyer who did not believe that a mere accusation was synonymous with guilt. He represented an unpopular person who many people presumed was guilty of a heinous crime because of his race, and his race alone."
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:04 PM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

If K's not guilty, then why won't you have a fucking trial?

(I know, it's not a criminal proceeding)
posted by notsnot at 1:07 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Man, somebody didn't read Go Set a Watchman.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:07 PM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

Have you ever seen Hamlet?

"Indeed this counsellor
Is now most still, most secret and most grave,
Who was in life office a foolish prating knave."

Protest signs on FFFFFire (via @GarrettHaake)
posted by octobersurprise at 1:08 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

"We remember that Atticus Finch was a lawyer who did not believe that a mere accusation was synonymous with guilt. He represented an unpopular person who many people presumed was guilty of a heinous crime because of his race, and his race alone."

Is he ... suggesting that people think Kavanaugh is an attempted rapist because he's white? Mr Rogers was white. People are comfortable assuming Mr Rogers was not an attempted rapist. I don't think that's the problem here. On the contrary, it's possible (and I'm not an expert) that being white actually conveys certain privileges on a person, ymmv
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:09 PM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

FWIW, Heitkamp raised $3.8M in Q3, so she's not short of cash.
posted by Chrysostom at 1:12 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

If memory serves me correctly, the To Kill a Mockingbird sophistry was floated by Rich Lowry in the National Review. So it goes without saying that it's a stupefyingly dishonest analogy.
posted by Gelatin at 1:15 PM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

Here's my resistbot letter to my senators for today. Please feel free to copy, remix, etc.

As your constituent, I need you to lobby Senator Manchin today and tomorrow to ensure that he votes no on Judge Kavanaugh's confirmation. If he feels he needs to do it based solely on the judge's appalling lack of judicial temperament, rather than on the allegations against him, that's fine. But please make it clear that he cannot use the FBI report as a fig leaf to say that his concerns have been addressed. The moderate Republicans are really hoping to peel off one of the Democrats so they can call their votes "bipartisan." We cannot give them that cover.

posted by mabelstreet at 1:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [19 favorites]

To be consistent, Cornyn has to aver that Bill Cosby is also innocent. The evidence is basically identical: eyewitness testimony from multiple victims.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

To be consistent, Cornyn has to aver that Bill Cosby is also innocent. The evidence is basically identical: eyewitness testimony from multiple victims.

For that very reason, I didn't expect Bill Cosby to be convicted.

He was.

Judge Kavanaugh is not on trial.

He is having a job interview.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:23 PM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

Senator Cornyn must've just skimmed To Kill a Mockingbird, or he would've remembered that the town drunk wasn't the character in it he should've been rooting for.
posted by delfin at 1:26 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

Earlier this afternoon — Anti-Kavanaugh protesters take over the Hart Senate Office Bldg. atrium on Capitol Hill. Video clip via @MSNBC
posted by octobersurprise at 1:26 PM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

murmimor's link to a NYT opinion piece about Trump, which is in fact kind-of optimistic:
Trump Is Just Another Crooked New York City Landlord
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 1:27 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

To be consistent, Cornyn has to aver Cosby is also innocent. The evidence is basically identical: eyewitness testimony from multiple victims.

I've used the Cosby comparison in arguments about this, facebook style ones anyway, with friends of my dad's friends. It came to mind to use it because I suspect a few of my father's (who is the black sheep that isn't a dyed in the wool conservative-slash-racist in his family/social circles) older friends who are more likely to hate Cosby and/or relish that verdict while also somehow taking the same accusations of a white, conservative guy as particularly offensive.

I didn't change any minds but it wasn't a bad strategy either. Honestly, the mental gymnastics or silly things they'd say in an attempt to say that Cosby should be behind bars while Kav should be on SCOTUS was actually bad enough that folks who otherwise wouldn't normally wrestle with a pig were encouraged enough to pop in and say "Yea, that's some bullshit/weak sauce/indecipherable logic there bud."
posted by RolandOfEld at 1:29 PM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

we spend so much time in these threads making the same complaints about Manchin, a completely known quantity, and it's just a boring deraily waste of time every time.
posted by prize bull octorok at 1:32 PM on October 4, 2018 [35 favorites]

On the other hand: McConnell, Grassley showing some panic over Kavanaugh confirmation - Joan McCarter, Daily Kos Staff for Daily Kos

Mitch McConnell, Chuck Grassley, and a passel of white Republican men held an impromptu press conference on the pending vote on Brett Kavanaugh's nomination to the Supreme Court Thursday afternoon, moments after the bold decision announced by Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND) to oppose the nomination. Their purpose seemed to be to keep their conference in line and keep the momentum going.

posted by ZeusHumms at 1:38 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Thanks to the Boston Public Library, you can read Mark Judge’s book ‘Wasted’ online (Boston Globe)
posted by Melismata at 1:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [24 favorites]

Bold decision? BOLD???? I don't think that word means what you think it means.
posted by Bovine Love at 1:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

I'm going to suggest as politely as I can that this is not an ideal time to lecture women about why pragmatism and political expedience sometimes demands that Democrats vote in support of rapists.
posted by the turtle's teeth at 1:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [63 favorites]

Seriously can we not with the millionth Manchin derail please? There are 50 actual Republicans ratfucking everyone right now. Call Cory Gardner or something.
posted by aspersioncast at 1:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [39 favorites]

He's Got His Trade Deal—and His Same Nasty Attitude Towards Anyone Who Dares Ask Him a Question. President* Trump celebrates his un-NAFTA deal with Mexico and Canada.

Trump's NAFTA "win" notwithstanding, his attitude isn't winning him any friends in international trade, and the US will consequently lose its seat at the table.

Toronto Globe & Mail: U.S. Not Invited to Canada’s Save-the-WTO Summit of 13 'Like-Minded’ Countries

Canada will play host to senior ministers from 13 “like-minded” countries for a two-day discussion in Ottawa later this month to brainstorm ways to reform the World Trade Organization, said Jim Carr, Canada’s newly appointed International Trade Diversification Minister.

Mr. Carr said the group of countries he’s convened ultimately wants to persuade Washington of the continued usefulness of the WTO, but for now the best way forward is without the United States in the room.[...]

“Those who believe that a rules-based system is in the interests of the international community will meet to come up with a consensus that we will then move out into nations who might have been more resistant.”

China hasn't been invited either, which should send a further message to Trump about the company in which his trade policies place the US (BBC).
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:58 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

Find another Democrat (as in, someone likely to vote for a Democratic Senator as Majority Leader) who can win West Virginia, and this is a useful discussion to have.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 2:00 PM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

I'd also really like to give DC statehood. And anyone else who wants it.

Statehood -- and senators -- for DC, Puerto Rico, and every other US territory might be the only chance we have of pushing back minority Republican rule long enough to even out the playing field.

Pack the Senate. Pack the Court. There are no more "norms."
posted by schadenfrau at 2:05 PM on October 4, 2018 [43 favorites]

As has been pointed out, you need DC, Puerto Rico and Guam to get to the number 53 states:

One nation ... indivisible.
posted by JackFlash at 2:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [37 favorites]

WaPo, At Trump’s big city hotels, business dropped as his political star rose, internal documents show

More from Fahrenthold, Trump’s Scotland golf course lost $4.5 million in 2017, new report says </sad trombone>.
posted by peeedro at 2:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

Why this political scientist thinks the Democrats have to fight dirty - Sean Illing, Vox.

“The Republicans are behaving like a party that believes it will never be held accountable.”

[David] Faris, a political scientist at Roosevelt University, argues that the Democratic Party must recognize that Republicans aren’t engaged in a policy fight; instead, they’re waging a “procedural war.”

What he means is that Republicans have spent the past two decades exploiting the vagueness of the Constitution to create structural advantages for their side — passing discriminatory voter ID laws, using the census to gerrymander districts, blocking Democratic Supreme Court nominees, and so on.

Faris writes [in his new book, "It's Time to Fight Dirty"] Democrats have to recognize this reality and act accordingly, especially now that the Republicans are poised to conquer the Supreme Court for a generation. I reached out to him to find out what, exactly, he has in mind.

posted by ZeusHumms at 2:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [39 favorites]

DC statehood is starting to look pretty likely. For Puerto Rico, I think public opinion there has not necessarily been in favor, so we probably ought to ask them what they want before we start figuring out star patterns for the flags.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

I wrote a book that is in part about To Kill a Mockingbird. Comparing Kavanaugh to Atticus Finch is...not a deft literary analogy.
posted by mynameisluka at 2:23 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

The only problem with DC statehood is that it's going to yield a bazillion lawsuits a la the ACA. See above re: the courts.
posted by phearlez at 2:26 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

I think the comparison was supposed to be to the Tom Robinson character.
posted by JimInLoganSquare at 2:26 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

You're right, JimInLoganSquare. I read too quickly. Comparing him to Tom Robinson is also a shitty analogy.
posted by mynameisluka at 2:27 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

so as not to abuse the edit window: Not saying it shouldn't be done; I'm strongly in favor and there's smart people in the pro-statehood movement who know this and are prepared as best they can be. But I am so not looking forward to it.
posted by phearlez at 2:27 PM on October 4, 2018

The only problem with DC statehood is that it's going to yield a bazillion lawsuits a la the ACA. See above re: the courts.

Based on what, exactly? The process for adding states is pretty black and white.
posted by Justinian at 2:30 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

As a DC person, I'd really rather us not frame DC statehood as "fighting dirty."

DC statehood is unquestionably the right thing to do. Yes, it benefits Democrats, but that's not why we should do it.

I don't advocate for stooping to the level of the GOP, simply because the principles of fairness and democracy are already on our side. We don't need to fight dirty, and I don't entirely see how we'd benefit from it.

The Democrats do, however, need to stop being afraid of advocating for things that benefit them. DC statehood is assuredly in that category -- the hand-wringing about the optics of supporting DC statehood has won the Democratic party exactly 0 moderate voters.
posted by schmod at 2:37 PM on October 4, 2018 [71 favorites]

The only problem with DC statehood is that it's going to yield a bazillion lawsuits a la the ACA. See above re: the courts.

Based on what, exactly? The process for adding states is pretty black and white.

But DC is a federal entity defined by the constitution. The solution would be to have DC be the governmental buildings with a population of 0, and the rest can be a new state. I hear they were thinking about calling it the State of Douglass.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 2:39 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

For Puerto Rico, I think public opinion there has not necessarily been in favor, so we probably ought to ask them what they want before we start figuring out star patterns for the flags.

Unless I'm missing something huge, that's.....not true?

From Vox 08/31/18 Puerto Rico is asking for statehood. Congress should listen.

Puerto Rico is asking to become a US state. In fact, political leaders have been asking for a clear path to statehood since the 1960s. In 2016, the pro-statehood political party won control over the island’s legislature, the governor’s mansion, and the island’s sole (non-voting) congressional seat. Since then, Puerto Rico’s representative in Congress, Rep. Jenniffer González-Colón, has introduced two House bills that would allow Puerto Rico to become the 51st American state — one before Hurricane Maria hit, and the other this summer.

“Now is the time,” González-Colón said in a statement in June, when she introduced the Puerto Rico Admission Act of 2018. “The catastrophe left behind by Hurricanes Irma and María unmasked the reality of the unequal treatment of the American living in Puerto Rico.”

Past presidents have supported statehood for Puerto Rico, if that’s what the majority of Puerto Ricans wanted. Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama did. Support for statehood was even enshrined in the 2016 Republican Party platform.

...

There is no official process for a territory like Puerto Rico to become a state, but previous states have been added to the union by passing ordinary legislation. When Congress asked Gov. Rosselló to hold a referendum vote last year to see again what Puerto Ricans really wanted, the vast majority voted in favor of statehood: 97 percent, the largest number yet.

The problem is that fewer than a quarter of registered voters turned out to the polls. That was mostly the result of a boycott from the anti-statehood political groups, who were upset with the wording of the referendum.

posted by lazaruslong at 2:40 PM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

Based on what, exactly? The process for adding states is pretty black and white.

A broad reading of the District clause in Article I, Section 8 together with the 23rd Amendment making the constitutional presumption that a federal district necessarily exists. As you might expect, the Heritage Foundation already has done some legwork on sketching out the legal arguments.
posted by The Situationist Room with Guy Debord at 2:40 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

The problem is that fewer than a quarter of registered voters turned out to the polls. That was mostly the result of a boycott from the anti-statehood political groups, who were upset with the wording of the referendum.

It seems likely to me that they knew they were going to lose so they went with the boycott strategy in order to say that the referendum was invalid and all of the non-voters were boycotting out of opposition... when in reality most of the non-voters probably just didn't bother to vote like always happens.

The solution is to hold one more referendum while being explicit that it will be taken as valid regardless of turnout.
posted by Justinian at 3:03 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

There's also the retrocession of Alexandria County (now Arlington County), which was made part of DC by the Organic Act of 1801 and reverted back to Virginia in 1846. (I'm not taking this position, just pointing out the precedent.)
posted by kirkaracha at 3:03 PM on October 4, 2018

ZeusHumms:

Joan McCarter, Daily Kos Staff: moments after the bold decision announced by Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (ND) to oppose the nomination.

Bovine Love: Bold decision? BOLD???? I don't think that word means what you think it means.

All signs indicate that a majority of North Dakotans basically support Kavanaugh's confirmation, so, politically speaking... it is?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 3:05 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

I'm thinking the Mockingbird defense is a little Telltale heart, given the actual rapist also pointed the finger at a clearly innocent person?
posted by Slackermagee at 3:14 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Daily Beast: Democrats Fear the Party’s Kavanaugh Obsession Could Backfire

Sensing a bump for Republicans, some strategists want to pivot if he’s confirmed. Problem is the base may not be so ready to let it go.

They've already skipped the normal stages of grief in favor of their own, "scold the base for not acquiescing to a rapist supreme court."
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:16 PM on October 4, 2018 [14 favorites]

@JakeSherman: Today ..... “U.S. Capitol Police Charge 302 with Unlawfully Demonstrating in Senate Office Buildings”

This was a huge protest.
posted by zachlipton at 3:24 PM on October 4, 2018 [55 favorites]

> Daily Beast: Democrats Fear the Party’s Kavanaugh Obsession Could Backfire

Reminds me of all the talk about their "Trump obsession" and "Russia obsession", both of which were predicated on the absurd ideas that (a) neither Trump's Presidency nor Russian influence in our elections were existential threats, and (b) Democrats weren't talking about anything other than Trump or Russia.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:29 PM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

Looks like the base is currently about as engaged as it possibly can be. Our numbers are bigger than the Tea Party at its peak. There's nothing, literally nothing, we can do about the Republican base. We can't get through to them, we can't change their mind, we can't influence their decision on whether or not to vote. They are lost to us and immune to our message. The only thing we can do turn out our voters.
posted by vibrotronica at 3:41 PM on October 4, 2018 [68 favorites]

This was a huge protest.


I found coverage of this to be hard to find. I really had to look (compared to say, Dr. Ford's testimony, which was live streamed all over the place). The link I posted upthread was from USA Today. I kept going to news sites, and Wapo in particular, thinking how can they not have this? It sounds huge. It looks huge. But I couldn't find any serious coverage of it other than videos here and there on Twitter.

It was weird.
posted by A Terrible Llama at 3:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

The only thing we can do turn out our voters.

Yep. Even with what is reportedly extraordinary anger and motivation it would be shocking to get to 50% turnout. 50%! Getting our people to the polls is the #1 priority.
posted by Justinian at 3:51 PM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

This doesn't necessarily change the outcome, they can schedule the vote as they see fit and they can hold it open as long as they want, but it does change the timeline:

@MaritsaNBCMT: #BREAKING @SteveDaines has a scheduling conflict this weekend. He says he'll be walking his daughter down the aisle at her Montana wedding, regardless of the #KavanaughVote that could take place this weekend.
posted by zachlipton at 3:52 PM on October 4, 2018 [41 favorites]

Mod note: Y'all, "let's solve DC statehood" should be pretty clearly on the list of things that aren't actually gonna get done in passing in a catch-all thread. Please let that be at this point.
posted by cortex (staff) at 3:53 PM on October 4, 2018 [14 favorites]

This doesn't necessarily change the outcome, they can schedule the vote as they see fit and they can hold it open as long as they want, but it does change the timeline:

Daines can't vote if he's not present, I take it. wow.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

You must be physically present to vote.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:58 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

McConnell is not above placing a cardboard replica of Daines at a seat and playing a recording of his voice saying "Aye."
posted by delfin at 3:59 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Good bit in latest Weigel newsletter about how "sure we're trailing, but we've got enthusiasm now!" bit the GOP in the ass in 2012.
posted by Chrysostom at 4:02 PM on October 4, 2018

Plan B: Dr. Ford needs to file charges against Kavanaugh in Maryland, if he's approved. Will he take the stand (and get ripped apart)? Or not, and let the demonstrably credible victim alone speak? Also, I'm pretty sure the prosecution would be able to subpoena Mark Judge's interview with the FBI, not to mention his book. And all these roommates etc. who have stepped forward.
posted by msalt at 4:02 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

While we're talking about the schedule:

@ChadPergram: Procedural vote on Kavanaugh locked in at 10:30 am et Friday. Senate meets at 9:30 am et Friday. By rule, cloture "ripens" 1 hr after the Senate meets. If cloture is invoked (around 11 am et), 30 hr clock begins. Confirmation vote around 5 pm et Saturday

And the wedding is apparently Saturday. So either McConnell has a vote to spare or this gets delayed.

Is there anything preventing them from having the vote tomorrow?

The above cloture process has to happen first, including the 30 hour clock after cloture is invoked.
posted by zachlipton at 4:05 PM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

I would honestly not be shocked if Republicans are content to drag this out as long as possible. Were they to have the vote this weekend and confirm Kavanaugh, it could deflate the enthusiasm from their base because the fight would be over and the narrative of Democrats being incapable of winning would resurface and keep them home in November.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 4:06 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

Author and organizer L.A. Kauffman has been documenting the Senate protests on Twitter, and spreading the word about the series of #BlackFridays actions beginning tomorrow and continuing through Thanksgiving week.

This is big, and growing.
posted by Scram at 4:08 PM on October 4, 2018 [22 favorites]

Procedural vote on Kavanaugh locked in at 10:30 am et Friday. Senate meets at 9:30 am et Friday. By rule, cloture "ripens" 1 hr after the Senate meets. If cloture is invoked (around 11 am et), 30 hr clock begins. Confirmation vote around 5 pm et Saturday

It's also worth keeping in mind that all this delay has pushed any possible vote beyond Friday, which has traditionally been the day Mueller drops indictments.
posted by contraption at 4:09 PM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

This is what democracy looks like. (Video from today's civil disobedience action in DC)
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:10 PM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

All signs indicate that a majority of North Dakotans basically support Kavanaugh's confirmation, so, politically speaking... it is?

Yeah. Heitkamp is pretty far underwater, so this appears to be her doing the right thing because the cause is already lost, electorally speaking. Sigh.

Please note, from the 538 forecasts, that it's entirely within the realm of possibility for the democrats to actually lose a senate seat this year. Don't worry, the map gets better in 2020 and 2022, but it could get worse before it gets better.
posted by Joey Buttafoucault at 4:11 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

The, uh, good thing is that it can't get much worse (electorally speaking). I don't see how 46 is practically much worse than 49 or whatever.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:16 PM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

Heitkamp is pretty far underwater, so this appears to be her doing the right thing because the cause is already lost, electorally speaking

I personally choose to believe that it's because my mother, who still lives in North Dakota, has been calling her to urge her to vote no, and donating to her campaign.

Good job, Mom!
posted by flaterik at 4:16 PM on October 4, 2018 [106 favorites]

Looks like the base is currently about as engaged as it possibly can be. Our numbers are bigger than the Tea Party at its peak. There's nothing, literally nothing, we can do about the Republican base. We can't get through to them, we can't change their mind, we can't influence their decision on whether or not to vote. They are lost to us and immune to our message. The only thing we can do turn out our voters.

posted by vibrotronica at 3:41 PM on October 4

I'll suggest one other thing we can do: we can offer them something better. And I mean to say "offer" very specifically, like a free gift, sitting on a table, waiting for them to accept it. No pressure, no sweat if it's refused or ignored.

In the parlance of movie-making, "show, don't tell." The more we stick to our guns & refuse to let anyone on any side of any issue slide (e.g. bye bye looking the other way re: Bill Clinton, hello taking left-wing heroes to task like Al Franken), the better our odds of them joining our cause.

I agree that no amount of argumentation or influencing will work. We can't win.

The Wind & the Sun

I do think that if we 1) vigorously oppose the terrible behavior we see & hold people (respectfully) accountable for their participation while 2) shining like the goddamned sun with the justness of our policies & positions, we stand a chance.

Not a chance of "winning" people over so much as presenting a coherent view of life that's just a lot more desirable.

Obviously, we won't appeal to everyone. But I truly believe we'll appeal to enough.

What does this mean for us? Not much, honestly. The tone in these threads tends to be extremely conciliatory and measured (thanks, mods & thanks MeFi!). I imagine that most of us, when we engage with folks on twitter & facebook likewise do our best to take the high road & treat even our most vehement opposition with courtesy & respect. Of course, we can still make our case with vigor & passion- we just want to make sure that we don't conflate the person with the action.

But I think the sea is changing. I think that more & more people are seeing the value of this kind of approach. In my own Facebook feed, I see more & more friends & family pushing conversations about children in cages, survivors of sexual assault, economic hardship, Puerto Rico, travel bans, etc., etc. with this open & generous spirit.

So yeah. Definitely vote. That's the easy thing. But those of us who can (and only those of us who want to), can also let the light of our justice shine in our day to day interactions. Maybe I read too much "Chicken Soup for the Soul" or "Random Acts of Kindness" at an impressionable age, but I think these micro-benevolences can add up. :)

I mean, really. What else would you expect from a unicorn of the sea?
posted by narwhal at 4:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [23 favorites]

Isn’t this where the polling was for her at this time in the 2012 cycle, and she still won? Without a blue wave at her back?

I don’t know what the Heitkamp calculus is, or if it’s beyond calculus and she just will not vote for that piece of shit, but while I do not like that last poll, I’m not counting her out yet.
posted by schadenfrau at 4:21 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

I don’t see how 46 is practically much worse than 49 or whatever.

Well, special elections happen. If we’d been at 49 seats at the beginning of 2017, we’d be at 50 now thanks to Doug Jones. If McCain had died a few months earlier, we could be at 51.

Every senator really really matters, even if we don’t get to the majority this time.
posted by saturday_morning at 4:22 PM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

I really really do not have money to give away right now, but I gave her $10 after that announcement.
posted by contraption at 4:23 PM on October 4, 2018 [14 favorites]

With 49 Democrats, it's difficult but not impossible to sway enough moderate Republicans to block nominations and reconciliation bills. See Obamacare, the ongoing Kavanaugh drama, etc.

With 46, it's essentially impossible, especially with relatively gettable votes like Flake, Corker, McCain, etc. out of the picture. It also makes it that much harder to win back the majority next go-round. We wouldn't be in this mess if Democrats had only lost seven seats instead of nine in 2014, for instance.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:25 PM on October 4, 2018 [13 favorites]

Listening to the Pod Save America guys riff about how DJT didn't care much about Kavanaugh until the assault accusations, at which point Trump became his biggest supporter, extending the riff to others who Trump has supported after allegations.

The obvious explanation is that Trump relates to them as a fellow assaulter, but knowing Trump's ties to tabloids and dirt peddling/covering, I wonder if this is also to gain leverage over these people to do his bidding. I don't know if he'd go so far as to secretly tape conversations with them or dig up other kompromat, but I wouldn't put it past him.
posted by p3t3 at 4:28 PM on October 4, 2018 [11 favorites]

I would honestly not be shocked if Republicans are content to drag this out as long as possible. Were they to have the vote this weekend and confirm Kavanaugh, it could deflate the enthusiasm from their base because the fight would be over and the narrative of Democrats being incapable of winning would resurface and keep them home in November.

This is totally legit -- and yet, last night, one of my first thoughts on McConnell filing cloture was that he either had the votes sewn up or he really wanted to get this over with, win or lose, so it wouldn't be a constant churn of bad headlines for the next month.

We're all just guessing here forever. I guess.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:37 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

I don't for one minute think the trump people were blind-sided by the accusations against Kavanaugh. I think he was thoroughly vetted and picked not in spite of them, but because of them.
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:38 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

> And the wedding is apparently Saturday. So either McConnell has a vote to spare or this gets delayed.

Or scenario 3, he knows he wouldn't have the votes even if whatshisname(R, MN) were present, but is putting it up for vote anyway so that the trumpist party can get to plan b faster.

basically there's no way for anyone to do kremlinology on this. in any case, though, if anyone here has solid blackmail material on manchin or any trumpist senators, now's the time to start blackmailing them.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:41 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

We're all just guessing here forever. I guess.

I think you quickly get into "clearly the poison must be in my cup" territory with this stuff.
posted by condour75 at 4:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [37 favorites]

@MattLaslo
Barricades have been erected around the Capitol ahead of the Kavanaugh vote. Have been here 12 years and have never seen this for a vote.

100% not ominous.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:45 PM on October 4, 2018 [48 favorites]

>> Sensing a bump for Republicans, some strategists want to pivot if he’s confirmed. Problem is the base may not be so ready to let it go.

> They've already skipped the normal stages of grief in favor of their own, "scold the base for not acquiescing to a rapist supreme court."

Fortunately, the party strategists aren't in charge. We are.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:45 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh with a WSJ op-ed: I Am an Independent, Impartial Judge

I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said. I hope everyone can understand that I was there as a son, husband and dad. I testified with five people foremost in my mind: my mom, my dad, my wife, and most of all my daughters.

Going forward, you can count on me to be the same kind of judge and person I have been for my entire 28-year legal career: hardworking, even-keeled, open-minded, independent and dedicated to the Constitution and the public good.

This reads to me like the signatures from—it's now over 2,400 law professors—got to him, and he's trying to defend his behavior at the hearing.

The thing is, the most damning, partisan remarks were part of his opening statement, which he read off a prepared text. The most considered things he said last week included complaining about "revenge on behalf of the Clintons." A WSJ op-ed to try to clean that up now is way too late.

Of course, you don't write this if you're feeling strong and good about how things stand either.
posted by zachlipton at 4:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [86 favorites]

Barricades have been erected around the Capitol ahead of the Kavanaugh vote. Have been here 12 years and have never seen this for a vote.

To be clear, these appear to be barricades erected by the government, presumably to better control potential protests. These are not (as I had briefly fantasized) French Revolution, Les Miserables-style barricades erected by the protestors to lay siege to the Capitol and/or prevent the eventual Senate vote.
posted by mhum at 4:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [34 favorites]

I think you quickly get into "clearly the poison must be in my cup" territory with this stuff.

Except we didn't spend the last few years building up an immunity to unchecked power.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:51 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Also: "I was there as a son, husband and dad."

No, you were there as a nominee to the United States Supreme Court. It was a job interview.
posted by zachlipton at 4:53 PM on October 4, 2018 [99 favorites]

I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said.

This is itself as narcissistic-abuse-triggering as anything he said at the hearing. A lot of people will recognize this tone.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [93 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh with a WSJ op-ed: I Am an Independent, Impartial Judge

...he insists as he transforms into a corn cob
posted by prize bull octorok at 4:55 PM on October 4, 2018 [20 favorites]

Also: "I was there as a son, husband and dad."

I know this one: the doctor... was a woman!
posted by Atom Eyes at 4:56 PM on October 4, 2018 [57 favorites]

Also: "I was there as a son, husband and dad."
No, you were there as a nominee to the United States Supreme Court. It was a job interview.

He was also there as those things -- and his behaviour as a son, husband, and dad was just as appalling as his behaviour as a job candidate, frankly. He showed himself, in his comportment, to be unfit in every possible way.
posted by halation at 4:57 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

The stuff from Kavanaugh in that piece is so, so standard for every abuser. Like these guys keep it in their wallet with their driver's license and insurance.
Good job on putting it out for him, WSJ.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 5:01 PM on October 4, 2018 [37 favorites]

Yeah, you know, your buddies hired a prosecutor to interrogate a survivor of sexual assault, who was required to maintain complete self-control and be ostentatiously pleasant. And she accomplished that under the most difficult circumstances and is still being vilified and threatened. So no, I do not forgive you for losing your cool, asshole.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:02 PM on October 4, 2018 [76 favorites]

Michael Tomasky: I’d wager that the biggest Trump news hasn’t broken yet.
posted by growabrain at 5:05 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

> I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said.

Like "beer", over and over and over again?

If you're of a certain age and would like to try and mitigate the fury reading this op-ed inspires, read it in the "Homer Simpson's new lines for Poochie" voice.
posted by The Card Cheat at 5:05 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said.

as god is my witness I thought this was an alex petri joke piece.

sometimes I have emotions, senator. what's your favorite emotion? yeah, I've had too many emotions sometimes, haven't you?
posted by queenofbithynia at 5:06 PM on October 4, 2018 [78 favorites]

The "impartial" judge who went on FOX to whine, now goes to the Murdoch-owned conservative Wall Street Journal opinion page to whine some more.
posted by chris24 at 5:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh with a WSJ op-ed: I Am an Independent, Impartial Judge

I HAVE PEOPLE SKILLS!!
posted by Huffy Puffy at 5:14 PM on October 4, 2018 [44 favorites]

He’s recognized it’s like a job interview and wants to be clear that his biggest weakness is that he cares too much.
posted by meinvt at 5:19 PM on October 4, 2018 [19 favorites]

To be fair, that "I Am An Independent Impartial Judge" crap worked for Judge Doom after he dropped a piano on Teddy Valiant.
posted by guiseroom at 5:30 PM on October 4, 2018 [15 favorites]

Foreign Policy, Lara Seligman, Trump Considers Ousting Air Force Head Over Space Force Pushback: The president appears to be tired of Pentagon officials slow rolling his orders.

U.S. President Donald Trump is peeved with Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson over her handling of his directive to stand up a separate Space Force in the U.S. military, and he’s considering ousting her after the midterm elections, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Foreign Policy.

Wilson, a former Republican congresswoman from New Mexico, recently angered Trump as well as Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Defense Secretary James Mattis’s second in command, with what is seen as a campaign to undermine the Space Force effort, the sources said.

posted by zachlipton at 5:41 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been.

that you were sober enough to remember, that is.
posted by pyramid termite at 5:44 PM on October 4, 2018 [26 favorites]

That's a real op-ed? My god. The unmitigated gall of this self-centred piece of garbage. I had honestly expected that to redirect to an Onion article and when it didn't my initial reaction was "Huh. The WSJ has a satire section now."
posted by MarchHare at 5:46 PM on October 4, 2018 [35 favorites]

I wonder if DC or other new statehoods could be passed by a Democratic controlled Congress and even enacted by Trump. Admitting new states would be a highly visible historic legacy of the type that might appeal to him, especially with few other accomplishments — and he doesn’t seem to care about long term strategy concerns for the GOP.
posted by brendano at 5:51 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Don't new states have to be admitted via a resolution passed by both houses of congress, then signed by the president, much like any law? I could be mistaken, but that seems unlikely in the current setup. It would require a majority in the house, 60 in the senate, and a Democratic President. (Is such a law subject to challenge, like could the supreme court rule on it? Republicans v. Fuck You might end up having controlling precedent)

I don't think trump cares much about his legacy at this point, because he's going to age and die thinking one thing, where reality says another.
posted by mrgoat at 6:06 PM on October 4, 2018

From NYS Attorney General: For more than a decade the Trump Foundation operated in persistent violation of state and federal law.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:08 PM on October 4, 2018 [60 favorites]

dear God that piece isn't so much "life imitates The Onion" as much as it is "life sneaks up behind The Onion in a dark alley and strangles it from behind"

Oh, 2018, what will you think of next.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

Ryan Goodman (Just Security)
Brett Kavanaugh WSJ Op-ed Oct 4, 2018:

Trust me, how I behaved during that testimony is not who I am, and I would not be that way on the Supreme Court.

President Donald J. Trump, Sept 27, 2018:

"Judge Kavanaugh showed America exactly why I nominated him."
posted by chris24 at 6:13 PM on October 4, 2018 [95 favorites]

> Rebecca Traister, NYT op-ed, Fury Is a Political Weapon. And Women Need to Wield It: What the testimony of Christine Blasey Ford and Brett Kavanaugh showed us about who gets to be angry in public.

Rebecca Traister: "Have been talking non-stop about how women’s anger is treated as both laughable and infantile. Thanks Orrin Hatch, for continuing to be a walking fucking advertisement for my book."
posted by homunculus at 6:15 PM on October 4, 2018 [42 favorites]

> Admitting new states would be a highly visible historic legacy of the type that might appeal to him

I'm sorry, but this is some seriously misplaced hope. Trump clearly doesn't give a shit about the sort of legacy you'd have by admitting a new state - and besides, his handlers won't allow him to do it.

> he doesn’t seem to care about long term strategy concerns for the GOP

Trump IS the embodiment of long term strategy for the GOP - He constantly shit talks anyone aligned with the Democratic party, he is disenfranchising, deporting, and making life as miserable as possible for immigrants, he's passing tax bills that vastly favor the wealthy, he's appointing a very young, radically right wing supreme court justice - you can go on, we've been discussing everything horrible he has done for almost a couple of years now. God knows I'm leaving out a lot here, there just isn't comment space to list it all.

But most importantly to long term Republican goals, he's sowing further distrust in the federal government, and destroying data, and dismantling departments, regulations, and overall institutions in a manner that may take several administrations to undo... Remember that a massive chunk of the Republican party believes in no federal services that could actually benefit the American public, and wants the federal government to exist purely for military adventurism, keeping the wealthy from needing to follow any pesky laws or pay taxes, and keeping states who would actually give women, LGBTQ, and minorities any protections, equality, or rights in check. He is the perfect face of the Republican party - this is who they are.

Generally, I am not one to make definitive statements about what will happen in the future, but I'm damned sure he is not going to "pivot" and suddenly do something that will have any positive effect on the american people. He never will, and I don't know how anyone could POSSIBLY think he would at this point. He already has a legacy of sexual assault, fraud, maligning the free press, putting children in cages, being laughed at by the UN, being - wittingly or unwittingly - an asset of foreign intelligence agencies beyond their wildest dreams. As before, not enough space in this box to list it all. If public pressure, perception, or polls were going to affect them, they would have well before now.

The are only two legacies he wants to leave - 1.) his name on a bunch of shit, preferably embossed in gold, and 2.) for revenge to have been enacted on everyone that he thinks deserves it.
posted by MysticMCJ at 6:19 PM on October 4, 2018 [28 favorites]

Chloe Angyal (HuffPo)
A man who denies abusing women says that he wouldn't have been so angry and insulting if he hadn't been provoked. Look what you made him do. It is literally what people who abuse women say.
posted by chris24 at 6:24 PM on October 4, 2018 [152 favorites]

Kavanaugh’s ‘Drinking Buddies’: He Lied Under Oath About Drinking Habits

Daily Beast on the WaPo opinion piece (under a paywall).

Charles Ludington, Lynne Brookes, and Elizabeth Swisher write in a Washington Post op-ed that they “unequivocally” and on “numerous occasions” saw Kavanaugh “stumbling drunk to the point that it would be impossible for him to state with any degree of certainty that he remembered everything that he did when drunk.” The three said they also drank too much in college but were raising their voices as a “civic duty.”
posted by bluesky43 at 6:28 PM on October 4, 2018 [35 favorites]

Jonathan Singer
“I get partisan when I get emotional” is a weird argument for an aspiring Supreme Court Justice to make—or a sitting federal judge(!) for that matter


Jeet Heer (New Republic)
Here's the thing: being "independent [and] impartial" is a baseline minimum for a judge. If you have to argue that you have these qualities, you shouldn't be on the Supreme Court.


Sasha Samberg-Champion
He's really trying to have it both ways. He benefited from the remarks at the time by rallying Trump and the GOP base. Now, having gotten those benefits, he wants to disavow them and go back to beyond apolitical.

---

And in lighter news...

@MaltLiquorLogic
As if this entire presidency couldn’t be more bizarre...

Today, Trump boarded Air Force One with toilet paper stuck to his shoe.
VIDEO
posted by chris24 at 6:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [77 favorites]

No shortage of good ideas for regulating the economy and organizing politics to protect and benefit the common person from the deprications of the unscrupulous and the powerful.

Plenty of good ideas on how to make this country more fair, more democratic, less corrupt.

We need to win power in this unfair, unequal and corrupt system to bring about those changes.

We also need a plan for if the powerful and corrupt and their believers rule by fiat and threat of ciolence instead of by voluntary compliance with the rules.

DC state hood
Supreme court term limits
Ranked choice popular vote elections UBI and generous investment in public welfare
Equal pay
indexed minimum wages
these must be what we fight for even after we win power if we can win power through electing democrats.

educate organize and vote.... the alternatives are bleak
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 6:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [9 favorites]

I have difficulty picturing just who Bart's op-ed is really for. Maybe the key senators. But by and large, just about every individual American either feels his ranting was (a) unacceptable, (b) acceptable (even praiseworthy, ick), or (c) just kinda unsure. This leaves a very tiny minority for "That was a little disturbing but if he apologizes, confirm him". For a lifetime appointment, no less.

Like, I do understand the "political cover" concept, but for any senator to utter words to that effect ("He explained himself, he said it was a momentary lapse") would be admitting that what we originally saw was a disgrace. The whole point of "cover", for example the investigation, is about whether Kavanaugh is inherently unfit, not whether he's temporarily so. The op-ed's headline may as well have been "Normally, I Do Wear Clothes (By the Emperor)".

Instead, I suspect it was less a political calculation on his part than a lifelong habit. He knew it was one of his usual possibly-drunk tirades and he knew what he always does the next morning.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

> Today, Trump boarded Air Force One with toilet paper stuck to his shoe.

Are we sure that's toilet paper and not the Constitution?
posted by guiseroom at 6:59 PM on October 4, 2018 [54 favorites]

@emptywheel tweeted that the WSJ Kavanaugh piece made her want to drop acid and write a rebuttal, which has me thinking a) does emptywheel understand acid and b) imagine having a bad trip while contemplating Kavanaugh eeeeee
posted by angrycat at 7:19 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Alexandra Petri: The FBI was very easy to reach, and the report has been quite easy to read
posted by homunculus at 7:23 PM on October 4, 2018 [4 favorites]

@petridishes:

“Yes, I was emotional last Thursday. I hope everyone can understand I was there as a son, husband and dad.”

“Sir this is an Arby’s”

posted by homunculus at 7:24 PM on October 4, 2018 [53 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS - pt. 2

** 2018 House:

--KY-06: Garin Hart Yang poll has Dem McGrath up 51-44 on GOP incumbent Barr [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. Poll was commissioned by the McGrath campaign. [Trump 55-39 | Cook: Tossup]

-- CA-50: Tulchin Research poll has GOP incumbent Hunter up 45-44 on Dem Campa-Najjar [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Campa-Naijar campaign. [Trump 55-40 | Cook: Lean R]

-- NH-01: OnMessage poll has GOPer Edwards up 42-40 on Dem Pappas [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Edwards campaign. [Trump 48-47 | Cook: Likely D] => This is 20 some points different than the poll was saw a couple of days ago, and the party isn't spending anything here, so I am skeptical.

-- NE-02: GQRR poll has GOP incumbent Bacon up 49-45 on Dem Eastman [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. Poll was commissioned by the Eastman campaign. [Trump 48-46 | Cook: Lean R] => Pretty significantly different than the recent Siena poll (Bacon +9).

-- DKE spreadsheet tracking where parties and PACs are cancelling ad buys.

** Odds & ends:

-- SC gov: Trafalgar poll has GOPer McMaster up 51-37 on Dem Smith [MOE: +/- 1.9%]. [Cook: Likely R]

posted by Chrysostom at 7:45 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Hmm, Gardner [R - CO] formerly hard Yes, now says he needs to look more at the FBI report. And there's the Kavanaugh op-ed, which probably wouldn't come out if McConnell thought he had locked down the votes.

It's clearly really likely he's confirmed, but I feel there's a non-zero chance still that he isn't.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:49 PM on October 4, 2018 [31 favorites]

Barricades have been erected around the Capitol ahead of the Kavanaugh vote. Have been here 12 years and have never seen this for a vote.

To be clear, these appear to be barricades erected by the government, presumably to better control potential protests.

The original plan for today's action was to assemble on the east steps of the Capitol and be arrested there. Because the steps were barricaded, the organizers called an audible and directed everyone to the atrium of the Hart Senate Building. Protesters call it the People's Atrium because that's where they were arrested previously.

The protest was damned inspiring, y'all.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 7:50 PM on October 4, 2018 [56 favorites]

So apparently there are people who go to all of Trump's rallies as if they were Phish concerts or college football games.

Speaking of Trump rallies, he held one in Rochester, Minnesota this evening, and while it was relaxed by Trumpian standards, Daniel Dale covered it in all its bizarreness, including these highlights:

—Raucous applause and U-S-A chants as Trump takes the stage. He begins: "So this is supposed to be a Democrat state. I don't think so. I don't think so. I don't think so. They have a big very surprise coming."
—Trump makes a reference to Kavanaugh. There is a We Want Kavanaugh chant. Trump complains of what Democrats are doing to Kavanaugh's family.
—A man shouts that he loves Trump. Trump responds, "I love you too, but you're not my type."
—Trump, with an egregious lie, promises to "take care of" pre-existing conditions protections and adds: "Some of the Democrats have been talking about ending pre-existing conditions." His administration is in court seeking to get those protections in the ACA declared void.
—Trump, boasting of getting Pfizer to delay planned drug-price increases, says, "Who the hell does that? Do you think Hillary Clinton would've done that?" There is a "lock her up" chant.
—Trump is retelling the story about how he refused to take calls from world leaders who wanted to plead with him not to move the embassy to Jerusalem. "Mr. President, PLEASE don't do that, PLEASE, PLEASE." He says he called them back after he did it, said sorry it's too late.
—That was a boring one. Highlights:
- Trump lies a lot
- Trump mocks Franken for resigning over groping allegations
- Trump lies about Dems wanting to scrap pre-existing-condition protections and GOP wanting to keep them, says he'll take care of it by getting money from China
—Favourite new Trump claims tonight: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is going to make "ALL" Japanese car companies invest in the US, not just some; the king of Saudi Arabia has agreed to pay for US military protection because Trump asked him, telling Trump nobody had ever asked before.

While Trump really goes after Tina Smith and Al Franken to appeal to the locals, the crowd's raucous chants, receptiveness to his repeated lies, and enthusiastic responses to his "greatest hits", like "low-IQ" Maxine Waters, make a lot more sense if his rallies contain a significant contingent of dedicated fans.
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:51 PM on October 4, 2018 [17 favorites]

So... if someone wanted to get arrested in DC on Saturday, what group should that person connect with? If just show up? ...?
posted by anastasiav at 7:56 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Here is a NYT story about the blow up among Facebook employees after their VP of Global Policy, Joel Kaplan, showed up in support of Kavanaugh at his hearing sitting in full view of the cameras in the second row right behind him.

The Facebook VP of Global Policy denies that he was representing Facebook's Global Policy.

After the employee blow up, Zuckerberg explained that Kaplan was a family friend of Kavanaugh and broke no company rules.

And then Facebook executive Andrew Bosworth wrote to upset employees, "We will be sad to see you go ... but it is your responsibility to choose a path, not that of the company you work for."

Bros got to stick together, eh.

Lord, what a toxic place to work.
posted by JackFlash at 7:59 PM on October 4, 2018 [64 favorites]

Ken White: Gamble v. United States (the dual sovereignty case) won't let Trump just pardon everyone, regardless of how it is decided.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:00 PM on October 4, 2018 [16 favorites]

I have difficulty picturing just who Bart's op-ed is really for.

It’s to tell all of us what the truth is, because that’s how the world has always worked for him and people like him — both in his official work and unofficially, as a rich white dude. He gets to hear what all the lesser people say, and then he makes up his mind, and that’s what the reality is.
posted by Etrigan at 8:01 PM on October 4, 2018 [6 favorites]

It's clearly really likely he's confirmed, but I feel there's a non-zero chance still that he isn't.

I think they're sitting at 49 votes and trying to get Murkowski over the hump, which was the aim of the op-ed in WSJ
posted by Justinian at 8:02 PM on October 4, 2018 [7 favorites]

Here is a NYT story about the blow up among Facebook employees after their VP of Global Policy, Joel Kaplan, showed up in support of Kavanaugh at his hearing sitting in full view of the cameras in the second row right behind him.

Kaplan is also the guy at Facebook who hired a partisan Republican to tell Facebook if they were being unfair to Republicans.

As if 2016 and all the Russian interference they facilitated didn't make it clear, Facebook is an enemy in the fight for fair liberal democracy in this country.
posted by chris24 at 8:08 PM on October 4, 2018 [42 favorites]

anastasiav: if someone wanted to get arrested in DC on Saturday, what group should that person connect with?

Sign up with these folks.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:16 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

The Facebook VP of Global Policy denies that he was representing Facebook's Global Policy. After the employee blow up, Zuckerberg explained that Kaplan was a family friend of Kavanaugh and broke no company rules.

The WaPo had a piece just today about Facebook groups being mysteriously repurposed into Kavanaugh support vehicles. Hmm. Hmmmm.

In other bros-supporting-bros news (and heartening-protest news too): Brooklyn College students are protesting for the removal of an associate professor of business who was moved to defend Kavanaugh and stand in bro solidarity by literally advocating for sexual assault. Indeed, he went so far as to assert that "if someone did not commit sexual assault in high school, then he is not a member of the male sex" and to claim that "having committed sexual assault in high school ought to be a prerequisite for all appointments, judicial and political." (Blog post in question available here, though it has been retroactively edited by Langbert in an attempt to grasp for the figleaf of "but satire!" All caveats, qualifiers, and literal quotes from Swift were only added after the public outcry.)
posted by halation at 8:20 PM on October 4, 2018 [19 favorites]

Don't new states have to be admitted via a resolution passed by both houses of congress, then signed by the president, much like any law? I could be mistaken, but that seems unlikely in the current setup.

I think that’s right. DC statehood probably could only pass the Senate if the filibuster was abolished, anyway... Having 60 Democratic votes seems impossibly high.
posted by brendano at 8:21 PM on October 4, 2018 [1 favorite]

I just spent an hour of my life reading Judge’s book. Bart was only mentioned once, in conversation, as the guy who passed out. It does describe the prep school drinking culture, and mentions Beach Week and the 100 keg thing, but it doesn’t really stand as evidence. It’s too easy for Bart to claim he was just at the one party. Not worth the read.

Judge does describe his own bad behavior in regard to women but doesn’t recognize it as really wrong. He also fairly nonchalantly describes a time when he was a child when his mother said no to him at a store, so he threw a tantrum, and while his mother was driving home, he hit her in the back of the head hard enough that she almost drove off the road. He hit her with a baked ham.

It was written to be a funny anecdote.
posted by Ruki at 8:27 PM on October 4, 2018 [24 favorites]

>I have difficulty picturing just who Bart's op-ed is really for.

It’s to tell all of us what the truth is, because that’s how the world has always worked for him and people like him

How much could a banana Supreme Court Justice seat cost, 1100 words?
posted by rhizome at 8:40 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

Who the fuck hits their mother? Who the fuck makes light of hitting their mother? Who the fuck is best friends with someone who hits their mother and writes a funnyhaha story about it?
posted by riverlife at 8:44 PM on October 4, 2018 [17 favorites]

Grassley's staff put out what they claim is an "executive summary" of the FBI report. It says the FBI interviewed 10 individuals "with potential firsthand knowledge of the allegations" (emphasis in original) and "there is no corroboration of the allegations made by Dr. Ford or Ms. Ramirez." It says they interviewed two witnesses identified by Ramirez, but a third refused an interview.

Of course, that's because they didn't interview anybody else who actually does corroborate the allegations, such as the people Ford told before Kavanaugh was nominated or the seminary professor who says he heard about the events Ramirez described soon after they happened.
posted by zachlipton at 9:18 PM on October 4, 2018 [8 favorites]

And here's a letter from Grassley ('s staff, because we've all seen his tweets and know how he writes) where he yells at Dr. Ford's lawyers for not handing her therapy notes over directly to the Senate (they've offered to give them to the FBI, which does not seem unreasonable given that they're therapy notes for crying out loud).

There's also a weirdly ominous thing in the last paragraph where he requests records and descriptions of all contact with Senators, witnesses, and other accusers "in light of recently uncovered information." It's not clear what that is.
posted by zachlipton at 9:42 PM on October 4, 2018 [3 favorites]

Hundreds arrested at anti-Kavanaugh protest: 'It's time for women to be heard' (Sabrina Siddiqui and David Smith, Guardian)

Can't find anything in the Post. Ho-hum local news, I guess?
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:52 PM on October 4, 2018 [5 favorites]

I see a video report about it on the front page?
posted by Chrysostom at 10:02 PM on October 4, 2018 [2 favorites]

Can't find anything in the Post. Ho-hum local news, I guess?
Sorry, but as a former reporter, these kinds of remarks always get my back up a bit.
posted by kemrocken at 10:04 PM on October 4, 2018 [18 favorites]

Hundreds arrested at anti-Kavanaugh protest: 'It's time for women to be heard' (Sabrina Siddiqui and David Smith, Guardian)

Chuck Schumer's cousin Amy, who's an activist with the Time's Up anti sexual violence group, was among those arrested.
posted by scalefree at 10:54 PM on October 4, 2018 [10 favorites]

This is probably the most on the nose Amy Schumer skit to post.
posted by cmfletcher at 11:25 PM on October 4, 2018 [12 favorites]

In 1994, with the wind at their back and just 6 weeks before the midterm elections, opposition Republicans proposed what they called "The Contract With America," a list of (carefully selected, bullshit) principles that they promised to immediately tackle if given power. It was an undisputed marketing success, as they gained 54 House seats and 9 Senate seats, their first majority in both Houses since 1953.

I think Democrats should do something similar, as soon as the Kavanaugh thing is resolved one way or the other. But instead of a slanted partisan agenda, it should be something on the high road that would indisputably help Democrats yet honestly be better for the Republic.

I suggest an "Honest Elections Plan." (Agenda? Contract? marketers, chime in.)
1) Ban gerrymandering
2) Constitutional amendment: corporations are not people, and have none of the rights of individual people. Individuals in corporations have their personal rights with their personal money, nothing more, nothing less.
3) Repeal/override Citizens United.
4) Immediate, online disclosure of all political contributions, including to PACs and other 3rd party organizations.
5) Voter registration is automatic for all military veterans, drivers, and taxpayers, with a check box to verify that you're a citizen. Felony penalty for falsely checking that box.
6) Voter suppression is a felony.
7) Nationwide, felons regain voting rights when released from prison.
8) Until #7 is implemented, marijuana convictions expunged in states where weed is legalized.
posted by msalt at 11:47 PM on October 4, 2018 [35 favorites]

I just found an article about how the Democratic sausage gets made, and it has me VERY excited to sign up and do something.

Bloomberg Businessweek: A Former Obama Operative Built a New Anti-Republican Attack Machine

Highlights:

Burton has amassed an army of 16,000 amateur sleuths who, with professional guidance, have spent months ferreting out damaging material on scores of vulnerable Republicans in Congress and state legislatures. Now he’s ready to unleash it just in time for the midterms. As he told me, “We’re going to do with real information and real Americans what the Russians tried to do with fake information and fake Americans.”
...
Burton and his partners devised a “Midas Index” of Republicans, including Representatives Bruce Poliquin of Maine and Erik Paulsen of Minnesota, who’d taken more than $1 million in PAC money from Wall Street or Big Pharma. Alleging greed or complicity in the opioid crisis, as Burton intends to do, is more apt to engender anger in swing voters than the thorny cultural issues many Resisters would prefer.
...
More colorful was the “Sloth Index.” Volunteers tracked the attendance and output of incumbents, including Facebook posts, videos, and press releases, on the theory that those who didn’t bother showing up for work, and didn’t do much when they did, would be easier to pick off. Many of the politicians on the list have never faced a tough race and so haven’t taken elementary precautions such as registering their own domain names. Burton has snapped up 203 domains of incumbent Republicans that will soon bear the fruit of his researchers’ efforts. Voters searching for information on Representatives Mike Bost of Illinois and Dave Schweikert of Arizona will discover their fondness for staying at Ritz-Carltons and the Waldorf Astoria, a perilous habit in light of Trump’s attacks on the Washington “Swamp.” For Tyler Vorpagel, a Wisconsin state representative who’s voted to cut public assistance programs, readers will learn that his wife collected unemployment while she was running his first campaign in 2014, all the while posting Instagram pictures of herself (and her dog Teddy) at happy hours and baseball games. (“My wife spent countless hours looking for a new job and never turned down a job that was offered to her,” Vorpagel says in a statement. “[T]he bills we passed require everyone to look at welfare benefits as temporary assistance, not a long-term lifestyle.”) Meanwhile, Rohrabacher.ru will feature Citizen Strong’s trove of materials on the Putin-friendly California congressman. And, if the Russian government shuts it down, ComradeRohrabacher.com will replace it.

Other takeaways are, this group is funded by dark money, research tasks are broken down and parceled out like astronomers parcel out computing tasks in distributed networks and nothing gets passed up the chain until it's repeated 3 times, and everyone in the story asked to stay anonymous.

I don't know if this is the organization we need, but if it's the one we got, I'm alright with that. I encourage all of you looking for an outlet to consider trying to join them.
posted by saysthis at 12:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [36 favorites]

Bellingcat used a leaked car registration database to potentially identify over 300 potential GRU staffers. Might hopefully mean that activity in November is muted if this causes a big staff shift.
posted by PenDevil at 2:02 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

Nadia Murad and Denis Mukwege win the nobel peace prize this year. I mention this here because Republicans seriously nominated Trump for the prize. Always a long shot but you just don't underestimate 2018. They gave one to Kissinger ferchrissakes.
posted by adept256 at 2:10 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

I just spent an hour of my life reading Judge’s book. Bart was only mentioned once, in conversation, as the guy who passed out. It does describe the prep school drinking culture, and mentions Beach Week and the 100 keg thing, but it doesn’t really stand as evidence.

The WaPo has an article about the privilege that surrounds Kavanaugh that contains this tidbit: "Years before his Supreme Court nomination, Kavanaugh’s supporters pressed Judge to limit or mask his revelations of bad behavior, three Prep classmates said."

So even that little bit was too much for Kavanaugh's posse that they were putting pressure on Judge to keep to the code of silence.
posted by peeedro at 2:21 AM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

In my view this deserves an FPP of its own, but it's a project by a friend, so I can't post it. If anyone else feels so inclined, please do go ahead.

Five Posts on Polygraphs: A Summary

"My name is Dr. Vera Wilde, and I’m a transparency activist and polygraph researcher. I hold a Ph.D in American Politics from the University of Virginia, and was also the appellant in Sack v. DOD, a 2016 federal appellate court ruling authored by Judge Brett Kavanaugh...."
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:49 AM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

Sarah Silverman addresses senators directly in the opening monologue of her show -

This is no longer a job interview, this is a line in the sand. And you have to pick a side and the side is no longer Republican or Democrat. Your vote is a statement that either, hell no this is not ok, this is not who we are, or it's telling every woman, every girl, every boy, every person, that what happens to women's bodies does not matter. That women's truths don't matter. That you get yourself sexually assaulted, and if you have the nerve to come forward with it it is a mistake, and the president of the fucking united states will mock you for it, will laugh at you. Senators I know that you're scared, and I'm asking you to be brave, to be as brave as the woman that came forward at the peril of her entire life, because years from now you're going to asked if you were at the party, and guess what, this is the party.
posted by adept256 at 4:36 AM on October 5, 2018 [121 favorites]

I am having a lot of trouble reconciling "independent, impartial judge" with "groomed by the Federalist Society", but I'm just a naive Canadian.
posted by sevenyearlurk at 4:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [33 favorites]

zachlipton Wilson, a former Republican congresswoman from New Mexico, recently angered Trump as well as Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, Defense Secretary James Mattis’s second in command, with what is seen as a campaign to undermine the Space Force effort, the sources said.

I think what distresses me most about the news stories like the one you quoted here is that the journalist seems to accept the basic premise that the President can just order an entire new branch of the military into existence and the only real question is the obedience of his subordinates in the military chain of command.

That's simply not true, and it horrifies me that almost none of the stories about Trump's "Space Force" bother to mention that new branches of the US military can only be created by an act of Congress, and Presidential whim is insufficient to create one. Instead the stories all act as if hte President can just decide one day to create a new branch of the military.

Every single story about Trump's delusional space force order has failed to mention that it is 100% a Trump delusion and that he simply, flatly, cannot do that. Instead they all breathlessly talk about it happening, and the speed at which it's happening, and power struggles over the amazing new Space Force branch of the military, and as a result it's happening even though it fucking shouldn't even be a thing at all.
posted by sotonohito at 5:26 AM on October 5, 2018 [84 favorites]

and the only real question is the obedience of his subordinates in the military chain of command.

Do you have any real doubt at all that whatever the sources of his anger here, he is as usual choosing to focus it on the woman most immediately available?
posted by adamgreenfield at 5:57 AM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

It's been a long time since I was actually shocked by one of our big dumb president's tweets, but this one elicited an out-loud "whooooa." The man in the highest office in the country is using the bully pulpit to perpetuate antisemitic conspiracy theories.

The very rude elevator screamers are paid professionals only looking to make Senators look bad. Don’t fall for it! Also, look at all of the professionally made identical signs. Paid for by Soros and others. These are not signs made in the basement from love! #Troublemakers

posted by marshmallow peep at 6:11 AM on October 5, 2018 [48 favorites]

We were Brett Kavanaugh’s drinking buddies. We don’t think he should be confirmed.
Charles Ludington, Lynne Brookes and Elizabeth Swisher, WaPo

None of this is what we wanted, but we felt it our civic duty to speak the truth and say that Brett lied under oath while seeking to become a Supreme Court justice. That is our one and only message, but it is a significant one. For we each believe that telling the truth, no matter how difficult, is a moral obligation for our nation’s leaders. No one should be able to lie their way onto the Supreme Court.

posted by mcdoublewide at 6:14 AM on October 5, 2018 [62 favorites]

More from the administration's Undo Obama department:

Detroit News- Willow Run car-test facility loses federal 'proving ground' status

In a document outlining guidelines for autonomous vehicles released Thursday by the Trump administration, the U.S. Department of Transportation said it is rescinding the designation of the Willow Run facility and nine others that were identified as proving grounds in January 2017.

Congress in March allocated $20 million that was to be divided among the facilities that received the designation. The funding was part of a pool of $100 million that Congress made available for grants that would be used to fund self-driving testing.

posted by p3t3 at 6:16 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

Protest kegger at Mitch's house! https://mobile.twitter.com/kasie/status/1048179563178721280?s=21
posted by Cocodrillo at 6:21 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

Willow Run car-test facility loses federal 'proving ground' status

What...? I don't...even...Look: the big auto manufacturers are all in on autonomous. Unless, like, the Yellowstone caldera blows, or some other event of similar magnitude comes traipsing along to send us all tumbling back to the caves and lean-tos, it's going to be a trillion-dollar market. For someone, anyway. You'd think...you'd think...he'd want that someone to be American. I mean, judging from the America First rhetoric and all.

It's these moments that really lay the long zap on my head. The misogyny ("elevator screamers"?!?) I get, sadly enough. The racism I get. The shallowness, the ignorance, the stupidity and the wall-to-wall gold-leaf tackiness: all of that I get, sure. But what I do not now and shall not ever get is the manifestly-counterproductive-even-considered-on-his-own-broken-terms shit. It makes me want to look into trepanation therapy, my hand to god.
posted by adamgreenfield at 6:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [48 favorites]

Apparently the Repubilcans found someone willing to attest by sworn statement that all of Mr O'Kavanaugh's yearbook-term definitions were perfectly cromulent. Even the stuff about Renate.

It's posted on the Senate Judiciary Committee's Twitter account (whose persistent partisanship in this, pretty much literally saying "We need to confirm him" every day, has got to be another broken norm on its own). Going by what we already know, I give at least a 30% chance this affadavit resulted from Bart himself asking for a favor.

A thing that gets me about that string of fibs from him is that any one may be slightly plausible, but all of them in conjunction stretches probability to a breaking point. It's not unlike the simple fact that he has multiple accusers -- to maintain his innocence, you have to believe a bunch of unlikely things all at once.

I also suspect that at least a couple of his "explanations" actually weren't invented recently but do accurately date to the 1980s Georgetown Prep circle. However, they were developed with full awareness of the more common teenage-shock meaning. It sounds like "Squi" really did stutter, so it makes a fair bit of sense that someone would jokingly couple that to the already-infamous Five Fs. Likewise, maybe they did play a drinking game called Devil's Triangle, but I've got a bridge to sell you if you think they came up with that name with zero awareness of the sexual meaning. And supposing that's true, then omitting it in his testimony would be yet another failure to tell the whole truth.

I'm reminded of a thing in middle school where people claimed that the scientific term for the skin of one's elbow was "wenis" and it was an obvious excuse to say something that sounded like "penis". I'm sure half or more of us believed that was true (it was not). But you'd be highly naive to think there was nothing PG-13 about all these kids saying "wenis" to each other because hey, the kids themselves will tell you it's about elbows!

Even if we wanted to briefly entertain the notion that the references to Renate were friendly, how stupid and "pure" am I supposed to think young Brett was that he wouldn't see what the rest of us immediately saw in those phrases? You're telling me he never thought "Oh darn, that looks like I'm shaming her sexually, I'd better not put that in my yearbook"? He's not Charles Boyle from Brooklyn Nine-Nine, a fictional character who regularly utters accidental innuendos. Give us a fucking break.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:29 AM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

I know this will shock us, but Ben Sasse will be voting for Kavanaugh. Who could have seen such a vote from this independent midwesterner who voiced concerns mere days ago?
posted by gladly at 6:40 AM on October 5, 2018 [20 favorites]

Apologies for my upthread slur on the Post's reporting. It was late and my search-fu was weak.

Picture #18 in this WaPo gallery shows MeFi' s own duffel and me at the left edge of the frame (Dropbox link so you don't have to use up a free article).
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [28 favorites]

duffel: According to the organizers, there were 602 of us arrested.

Pretty sure that's a typo; everyone else is reporting 302.

Thanks again for walking the walk.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:55 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Chris Coons’s friendship with Jeff Flake is Democrats’ last hope to stop Kavanaugh - By Tara Golshan and Dylan Scott, Vox

How Chris Coons is channeling John McCain to stop Brett Kavanaugh.

The spirit of bipartisanship isn't quite dead yet.
posted by ZeusHumms at 7:00 AM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

Some good points made in podcasts:

Ezra Klein: When Kavanaugh said he was not dropping out at the beginning of his questioning, that was a message to Republican Senators, not Democrats. I'm not going anywhere. You must rally to support me.

Sam Harris: What is the likelihood someone wouldn't accurately remember an attacker they personally knew before an attack? How likely is it that Ford would lie to her therapist about being attacked decades before she knew he would be nominated?

The more that comes out about Kavanaugh, from friends, from those that knew him well, and from those that didn't, the more ill I feel. I feel like a better judge could be picked at random. In retrospect, it seems clear why the very first article in support of his nomination and character, published in the Times, of course, was written by someone who hardly knew him, except that he carpooled her kids to school and coached the girl's basketball team. A remarkably weak testament of character for a Supreme Court nominee. It seemed a bizarre choice at the time. Now it seems likely it was the best endorsement he could get.
posted by xammerboy at 7:01 AM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

Justinian: I think they're sitting at 49 votes and trying to get Murkowski over the hump, which was the aim of the op-ed in WSJ

And at the protest, over 150 women from Alaska were present, thanks to ACLU funding their flights (KTUU, Oct. 3, 2018)

Alaska women, sponsored by the American Civil Liberties Union, left for Washington D.C. Tuesday in a last-ditch effort to convince Alaska senators Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan to vote "no" on Brett Kavanaugh.

Over 150 women signed up to take the trip. Many are attorneys working in a variety of settings, representing different political views, according to a letter drafted to deliver to their senators when they arrive in D.C. Wednesday evening.

ACLU Communications Director Casey Reynolds addressed the crowd of women at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport before their flight Tuesday evening.

"I just want to tell everybody how amazing it is we have so many people,” Reynolds said. “When we started Sunday night, when our national organization said that we could get some money to go to Washington D.C., we thought, 'Man, if we could just get 20 or 30 people who could drop everything and go to D.C.’ as of today we are well over 150 people.”

Via NPR's article 'We Believe Survivors': Demonstrators Throng Capitol Hill To Protest Kavanaugh (Oct. 4, 2018)
posted by filthy light thief at 7:03 AM on October 5, 2018 [24 favorites]

The thing that irritates me... well, not the most, but greatly, is that all this dipshit had to do was admit that he had a drinking problem in his younger years, and that he wasn't the most couth young man, that he surely did talk about buttfucking and made rape jokes, but he's all grown up now, saw the error of his ways a long time ago. Then, deploy some of those tears he's so good at conjuring up, and deeply apologize for any wrong he may have done, while not admitting to anything specific. He's a changed man, something something the love of God hath made me whole and true repentance something. People fucking love a redemption arc. If he'd have done that? He'd have been confirmed last week. That would have been enough for the Oatmeal Caucus. That would have provided much more solid HOW DARE YOU JUDGE A MAN FOR WHAT HE DID 30 YEARS AGO, HE SAID HE'S SORRY! talking points.

I mean, I was not a saint in college. If anyone ever brought up some of the shit I did (I should note, not sexual assault or crimes with actual victims, but some moderate hellraising), I'll own it. I did not always make the greatest choices, especially when under the influence, which I definitely was a fair amount my first couple years. I'll also own my less than woke understanding of race and racism at that time (let me tell you about the time I got SCHOOLED on this topic by a Latinx housemate). I can do all this because I'm not a fucking habitual liar.

But Bart O'Kavanaugh didn't do any of that and no one close to him apparently was able to advise him to do that, because not only are these people evil, they are dumb. And the fact that these dumb, evil people are still going to get everything they ever wanted is making me absolutely seethe right now.
posted by soren_lorensen at 7:09 AM on October 5, 2018 [90 favorites]

[satire] I Am an Independent, Impartial Scorpion - Matthew Dessem, Slate

Yes, I stung a frog last Thursday. I hope everyone can understand that I am just trying to get across this river.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:18 AM on October 5, 2018 [33 favorites]

People fucking love a redemption arc. If he'd have done that? He'd have been confirmed last week. That would have been enough for the Oatmeal Caucus.

I'd refer you to the excellent Atlantic article that zachlipton referenced above entitled The Cruelty is the Point.

None of this is about making their viewpoint palatable to centrists and liberals. It's entirely about "owning the libs".
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 7:24 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

I agree with Sorenson. Some heartfelt admission of not being a good person when younger coupled with sincere regret would have easily won the day. But he didn't. And then not only was he super angry about it, he blamed it on Democrats and said they would rue the day.
posted by xammerboy at 7:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

The ABA Standing Committee (I'm no legal expert, but they seem to provides independent, nonpartisan peer evaluation of the professional qualifications of every judicial nominees) has announced today that they are reevaluating Kavanaugh. Link to tweet with image of letter.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:27 AM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

> ... all this dipshit had to do was admit that ...

From Fear: Trump in the White House (the first match in a quick search):

Trump told the friend that it's a mistake to show weakness in the face of such accusations, according to the book. "You've got to deny, deny, deny and push back on these women," Trump said, according to Woodward. "If you admit to anything and any culpability, then you're dead. That was a big mistake you made."

President Donald J. Trump, Sept 27, 2018: "Judge Kavanaugh showed America exactly why I nominated him."

He knows exactly what he's doing.
posted by RedOrGreen at 7:27 AM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

You'll Need ID at the Polls for the First Time in These 5 States - Alicia Adamczyk, Lifehacker

Arkansas, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and Texas have passed new laws since 2016 requiring ID at the polls, per ProPublica’s report.

See the post link for specific details - each state is different.

In total, 34 states require voters to either show ID or sign an affidavit when they vote. You can see the full break down here.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:31 AM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

Yes. Kavanaugh was obviously playing to an audience of one in his televised testimony; his partisan rant was not a sudden emotional outburst but part of his prepared testimony.

The problem there is, the majority of loyal Americans were rightly disgusted with his display, and his popularity has dropped since.

In addition, admitting to drinking heavily would have validated part of Dr. Ford's testimony, and he couldn't risk giving wavering Republicans reason to believe her.

The problem is, he lied under oath in his Senate testimony. The fact that the FBI was restricted from giving him an opportunity to lie to them -- and thus commit another crime -- is a tell that this Administration knows he's lying.
posted by Gelatin at 7:31 AM on October 5, 2018 [21 favorites]

But Bart O'Kavanaugh didn't do any of that and no one close to him apparently was able to advise him to do that, because not only are these people evil, they are dumb. And the fact that these dumb, evil people are still going to get everything they ever wanted is making me absolutely seethe right now.

Not dumb exactly, but unable to engage in thoughtful self-reflection. It's a lack of emotional maturity. The same way they're unable to feel empathy for folks outside their personal experience. Or to view women as equals. Or accept criticism without seeing it as a personal attack, which is why they lash out.

Reactionary authoritarianism isn't a coherent political philosophy, it's a manifestation of psychological maladaptation.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:33 AM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

Collins will vote yes on procedural vote, announce final vote at 3 pm.
posted by condour75 at 7:33 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Rue the day

Oh for crying out loud, that was Frasier Crane’s catchphrase on Cheers. Fun fact: he only used it once on Frasier and he was interrupted before he could finish saying it.

That said, more proof that over-entitled narcissists enjoy that phrase. I like Frasier Crane, sure, but I also like The Joker and they’re both fictional which is an important distinction in our bizarre times.
posted by Servo5678 at 7:40 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Forgive my ignorance, but what's the point of voting yes on cloture but possibly voting differently for the final vote?Is it to let him move forward only so that you can potentially put a final nail in the coffin?
posted by marshmallow peep at 7:42 AM on October 5, 2018

Cloture vote now. Murkowski yea, Flake no, Manchin yea.

@mikedebonis: Manchin was asked if his cloture vote would correspond to his final confirmation vote. "You'll have to see, huh?"
posted by zachlipton at 7:42 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

Collins announcing yes on a procedural vote, but not announcing her final vote is just trolling. Are we supposed to believe she needs another few hours to think deeply about this? I don't understand the upside to this except to get the hopes up for those who hope she votes "no." Or is this preliminary step in getting Manchin to vote Yes along with her, Flake, and Murkowski?
posted by skewed at 7:43 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

Estranged in America: Both Sides Feel Lost and Left Out - Emily Badger, NYT

Lately, some polls have been asking respondents if they feel like strangers in their own country.

[Findings and results from recent polls] suggest a rare political moment when Americans on all sides worry that they don’t recognize what the country is becoming.

“Normally, even in a politically polarized society, one side wins and they’re content,” said Stephanie McCurry, a historian at Columbia University. “It’s the other side that feels shut out of power.”

The moment now reminds her of the 1850s, when Northerners and Southerners were locked in a morally imbued fight over the nature of American values — and whether America was at its core a slave-owning society. Many Northerners were horrified by the 1857 Dred Scott decision, which effectively declared the United States such a place. Southerners were horrified by Northerners’ reaction to it, Ms. McCurry said.

“At that point, what you’re looking at is this sense of powerlessness all around about the ability of any institution to mediate not just a political conflict, but a conflict of fundamental values,” she said. “That’s maybe something like what we’re dealing with right now.”

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:45 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

Collins will vote yes on procedural vote, announce final vote at 3 pm.

Now that Collins has burned up her reputation as a "moderate, centrist Republican who respects women's rights," Democrats need to target her seat for flipping. They need to hang this vote around her neck for all time.

Kavanaugh acted like he did because he believed his actions had no consequences to him. Collins votes lockstep with the likes of Mitch McConnell and Orrin Hatch for the same reason. It's high time to demonstrate the error of that thinking.
posted by Gelatin at 7:45 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

Murkowski voted no; Manchin voted yes.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:45 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

It takes time to figure out how to come up with the right spin and make sure that it gets lost in the shuffle.
posted by clawsoon at 7:45 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Forgive my ignorance, but what's the point of voting yes on cloture but possibly voting differently for the final vote

It gets the process over with. Even if you're going to vote against, you want the vote to be scheduled so you can vote no and move on to other things.

My guess is that Collins has constituent visits scheduled for most of the day (I know there is a group of mayors who went down to see her for a meeting this morning), and doesn't want to announce her vote before she's met with them, as a courtesy.
posted by anastasiav at 7:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

While i know no one is bound to vote the same way on the final vote as the procedural, it sure looks like Manchin is going to end up being in a position to cast a decisive vote, no?

Murkowski stays no, flake is a no, Collins and Manchin make it happen.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Flake and Murkowski are no? Then it just takes one of Manchin or Collins.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:47 AM on October 5, 2018

If Manchin is the deciding vote on this he deserves to lose.
posted by contraption at 7:50 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

I'm seeing that Flake was a yes as one would expect. A no on cloture, from him, would be frankly shocking, to me. What was your source, zachlipton?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:50 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Wait, how do we know Flake will be a "no" on the final vote?
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:51 AM on October 5, 2018

Flake is yes on cloture. Yes 51 no 49
posted by Ruki at 7:51 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

I'm seeing that Flake was a yes also
posted by celare at 7:51 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Hey what happened to that whole voting as a bloc thing
posted by saturday_morning at 7:52 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

The vote is closed. That's cloture 51-49. Whether that translates to the final vote for Manchin, Collins, and Flake and when the final vote will be (likely no sooner than 30 hours from now) are still the big questions.

(Apologies for the error upthread, Flake voted yes on cloture as you've all figured out.)
posted by zachlipton at 7:53 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

I'm seeing that Flake was a yes as one would expect. A no on cloture, from him, would be frankly shocking, to me. What was your source, zachlipton?

I don't know what Manchin's goddamn deal is. He's like 12 points up in the polls.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:53 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

I think i probably saw the same (incorrect) reporting as zachlipton indicating Flake had voted no on the cloture vote (my prior comment assumed that he would stay a no on the final vote).

Manchin doesnt matter in the end - but its hard not to imagine his office wont be the focus of extreme protests between now and the full vote.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 7:54 AM on October 5, 2018

Here's the thing about cloture votes - I'm honestly surprised that there were as many no votes as there were (yes, I know, party loyalty, etc.). I would expect that they would all want this to be finally over, if only so the shouting will stop. Cloture just means "I'm ready to make a decision on this thing." - that's all. It is not normally an indicator of which side of the decision you're on. For other legislation, there might be a strategic advantage to voting against cloture, saying, essentially "nah, we don't even want to waste time voting on this half-baked thing" but for this, where they have to move past it somehow, they need to finally vote.

Super interesting that Murkowski voted no, though.
posted by anastasiav at 7:55 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

Also, it is hard to tell in the CSpan long shot, but is Murkowski in the chair?
posted by anastasiav at 7:56 AM on October 5, 2018

So if Manchin had voted no, Pence would have broken the tie, correct?
posted by Ruki at 7:57 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

A WaPo fact checker in my Twitter feed claims Manchin said his vote for cloture would be the same as his final vote.
posted by StrawberryPie at 7:59 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

A WaPo fact checker in my Twitter feed claims Manchin said his vote for cloture would be the same as his final vote.

The tweeter retracted that a moment later.
posted by anastasiav at 8:01 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

A WaPo fact checker in my Twitter feed claims Manchin said his vote for cloture would be the same as his final vote.

He's pulled back from that. Manchin later said "Wait and see".
posted by Etrigan at 8:02 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

Maybe we can just all do one collective therapeutic yell about Joe Manchin and then that can be it for talking about Joe Manchin for the next little bit?

AAAAAAAHHHHHHHH

ok back to everything terrible that is not Joe Manchin
posted by saturday_morning at 8:03 AM on October 5, 2018 [39 favorites]

The tweeter retracted that a moment later – Thanks for noticing that. My hope may be fleeting and misplaced, but right now I'll just take that to get me through the day.
posted by StrawberryPie at 8:03 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Ezra Klein: When Kavanaugh said he was not dropping out at the beginning of his questioning, that was a message to Republican Senators, not Democrats. I'm not going anywhere. You must rally to support me.

More accurately, Ezra said if Kavanaugh doesn't drop out, then someone has to actually vote him in or out. What should, and would typically happen, is that eventually the nominee pulls out so that no one actually has their hands on the murder weapon, no one has to use a hall pass, no one has to take responsibility. When Kavanaugh said he's not dropping out, that's what he was saying to Republicans: "I will not make this easy for you. If you want me gone, you have to take the knife in your own hands and look me in the eye as you plunge it in." Gory metaphor was Ezra's idea, not mine.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 8:05 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

FYI: @ArthurDelaneyHP: Joe Manchin waited to vote yes on Kavanaugh until after the other swing voters. After the outcome was pretty much certain.

I suspect he'll do the same for the final vote to avoid being the swing vote in either direction, but "You'll have to see, huh?"
posted by zachlipton at 8:05 AM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

So If I'm getting this right, the cloture vote was entirely party-line (the two independents being people who nearly always vote with the Democrats), except for a swap between Murkowski and Manchin.

Alexandra Erin provides a few reasons a senator might vote for cloture but against confirmation:

1. To get this over with. No cloture means debate continues.
2. To force red state Dems to make a vote that will harm them at the polls.
3. To try to strike a "middle ground".

The third thing was basically what McCain did on the ACA, in combination with a sense that voting for cloture is just "proper procedure" or whatever.

If it was in some way guaranteed that Kavanaugh would lose the final vote, I'd definitely prefer cloture to happen, so there could be no "He was never even given a vote" complaint. However, in the absence of such a gaurentee, it's not something you ever want to see gotten over with, until such time as his candidacy is ended by withdrawal.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:07 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

Collins' publicity stunt at 3pm and Manchin's smug "wait and see, huh?" assholery is some deeply un-serious showboating. They think this is a fucking game.
posted by zombieflanders at 8:07 AM on October 5, 2018 [65 favorites]

The man in the highest office in the country is using the bully pulpit to perpetuate antisemitic conspiracy theories.

This is the first time @realDonaldTrump's mentioned Soros, and it's enough to get Soros trending on Twitter and give cover to his supporters to go full-on Emmanuel Goldstein.

As for this tweet's origins, Media Matters's Matthew Gertz notes the elevator confrontations were covered first thing this morning by Fox & Friends, and the Washington Examinder's Dave Brown (@dave_brown24) highlights this from Grassley a half an hour later: “Maria Bartiromo asked Chuck Grassley this morning if he thinks George Soros is paying the elevator protesters. "I have heard so many people believe that. I tend to believe it," Grassley said. Trump tweeted the accusation about 80 minutes later"”

But for an explicit on-the-air tie-in of Soros with the elevator confrontations, you have to go to Russian Today, Julia Davis points out (screenshot). And although I haven't yet found Trump naming Soros at one of his rallies*, he was standing next to Putin at the Helsinksi press conference when the Russian president brought him up.

* I have turned up then NRA-head Wayne LaPierre inveighing against Soros at a gun rally last year, and Nigel Farage exhorting a CPAC crowd to boo him this year.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:09 AM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

Wait, so Kavanaugh yelled during the hearing just because he thought it would appeal to Trump and his base, nothing more?

When Mitt Romney was governor of my state, he was quite a moderate, in fact was around when they came up with local Obamacare and took credit for it.

From what I read, George Wallace was actually not all that racist, he was just dramatizing what his constituents wanted.

I sure wish I knew what politicians actually thought about anything.
posted by Melismata at 8:10 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Collins' publicity stunt at 3pm and Manchin's smug "wait and see, huh?" assholery is some deeply un-serious showboating. They think this is a fucking game.

They saw McCain showered with praise after his last minute thumbs down drama; showboating is positively reinforced for Senators.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:11 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

I sure wish I knew what politicians actually thought about anything.


Every time I hear a statement like this I miss Paul Wellstone more
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:12 AM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

I sure wish I knew what politicians actually thought about anything.

I don't give a rat's ass what they think; I care about how they vote.*



* OMG I just realized that I sound like an evangelical Trump supporter.
posted by leotrotsky at 8:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

zombieflanders: Collins' publicity stunt at 3pm and Manchin's smug "wait and see, huh?" assholery is some deeply un-serious showboating. They think this is a fucking game.

It's gross, but also (I think) something to draw hope from. They're a bit less likely to showboat on a yes than a no, because unless you're a Grassley- or Graham-level deplorable, you'd sell a "yes" as business-as-usual (and do so by keeping your head down entirely) and a "no" as the bold, if personally difficult, stance for what's right. However, there are no absolutes here -- keep those phones ringing.

Melismata: From what I read, George Wallace was actually not all that racist, he was just dramatizing what his constituents wanted.

That's how his constituents' racism also worked. People rarely just "are" something that isn't partly guided by their sense of what the community believes. We're seeing that in action right now as so many people, from various senators to Kavanaugh himself, hesitantly measure the room temperature on sexual violence.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 8:18 AM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

Cornyn just referenced paid protestors. Says Senate will not be bullied, FBI investigation brought up no new information. If this is the new norm where people are denied a confirmation based on an allegation with no evidence, it's a dark day.
posted by Ruki at 8:23 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

He's still going on about paid protestors! Making more money if they get arrested?! I am incandescent that they are legitimizing the Soros thing.
posted by Ruki at 8:28 AM on October 5, 2018 [28 favorites]

They think this is a fucking game.

I have an essay inside me struggling to come out over how my rage boils over when I think of "politics as sport", because this is it. It isn't a fucking game. It isn't about your team winning. This is about decisions and policies that affects millions of people, their well being, their health, their futures. They have no idea or appreciation of consequences (and frankly, for large segments of the population, we are also unaware of the consequences or impacts of various policies). If this is a sport, it's a bloodsport, but the people injured and damaged by it are often too far removed from those playing the game for them to appreciate the consequences.
posted by nubs at 8:31 AM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

but the people injured and damaged by it are often too far removed from those playing the game for them to appreciate the consequences.

But that's the thing: they're not. Those "injured and damaged by it," in this case, are as close as their own bedrooms — and in some, inexplicable cases their own bodies, stretching away below.

This confirmation, if it happens, is a deliberate and deliberated act of war against every woman. There's no distance there. What there is — again, always — is the ideology of cruelty.
posted by adamgreenfield at 8:36 AM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

soren_lorensen: But Bart O'Kavanaugh didn't do any of that and no one close to him apparently was able to advise him to do that, because not only are these people evil, they are dumb. And the fact that these dumb, evil people are still going to get everything they ever wanted is making me absolutely seethe right now.

Reposted lots: Trump told the friend that it's a mistake to show weakness in the face of such accusations, according to the book. "You've got to deny, deny, deny and push back on these women," Trump said, according to Woodward. "If you admit to anything and any culpability, then you're dead. That was a big mistake you made."

And from a relative: of course Bart has a right to be angry, there's only one woman who's accusing him, and she can't even prove it! So this one accusation is ruining his life! [Real, sadly] Why would he have to apologize?

Also, the country's doing great, because after the Dems were so hard on the banks, now the country is flourishing [also real]. I ran out of energy trying to defend my beliefs.

Will the Kavanaugh Saga Leave Bruises That Heal Or Permanent Scars? (NPR, Oct. 5, 2018)

President Trump's choice of Brett Kavanaugh is already the most contentious nomination to the Supreme Court since Clarence Thomas won a 52-48 confirmation vote in 1991.

Thomas' was the closest vote confirming a justice since the 1800s, and it followed a stormy hearing and an adverse vote in the Senate Judiciary Committee. The process nearly foundered on accusations of sexual harassment and racial prejudice.
...
It must be said that the atmosphere of collegiality has been deteriorating in both institutions for some time. But the Kavanaugh confrontation has featured more raw partisanship on all sides than even the Thomas affair.

"Boy, you all want power," said Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, his voice rising to a shout at the Democrats across from him in a public hearing. "God, I hope you never get it!"

That came from a Republican who had twice voted to confirm Democratic nominees for the Supreme Court and who was once considered something of a bridge between the parties.
...
Unlike the reaction to other Supreme Court bombshells before and since, the pushback against Roe did not subside over time. If anything, it grew. By 1980, with the election of President Ronald Reagan, opposition to Roe had become a focal point for most Republican candidates. As time passed, the party platform became ever-more definitively anti-abortion, while Republicans who favored abortion rights were increasingly rare. And the Federalist Society became a force in its own right.

When President Trump was running in 2016, he repeatedly pledged to appoint only justices whose commitment to overturning Roe was clear. He campaigned on a pledge to choose only from a list of prospective nominees presented by the Federalist Society.

He has since done exactly that with his appointment of Justice Neil Gorsuch (who was confirmed with all Republicans and three Democrats voting aye), and Kavanaugh.

The last two previous appointees of a Republican president, John Roberts and Samuel Alito, were also Federalist Society alumni, along with 1991 appointee Clarence Thomas. So Kavanaugh would complete the court's first Federalist Society majority.

The Federalist Society is about restoring a set of values from the past and defending settled arrangements. The #MeToo movement is about challenging such values and renegotiating such arrangements.

Whatever happens to Kavanaugh, or the comity of this Senate and this Court, that larger struggle will be with us all for the foreseeable future.

There's a lot of fluffy recollections of "better times" in the past that probably won't stand up to a moment of scrutiny (like the fact that Roe v Wade was devisive on its own, when it passed with a strong 7-2 vote in the Supreme Court, and full six years after Roe that evangelical leaders, at the behest of conservative activist Paul Weyrich, seized on abortion not for moral reasons, but as a rallying-cry to deny President Jimmy Carter a second term), but the framing of this as the decades-long push by the Federalist Society versus the really young #MeToo movement is interesting, and honestly motivating.

A bunch of old, conservative white men have been trying to reshape the country in their image for decades, and now a year-old movement is slowing them down, if not stopping them in their tracks. Yes, Trump has appointed almost 70 Federal judges to date (Wikipedia list, currently up-to-date as of Sept. 22, 2018), but there are currently 143 total vacancies, with 72 total nominees pending (US Courts.gov), which means the November elections are coming at an even more crucial time.

A HUGE thanks to everyone out there protesting, registering voters, sending postcards, knocking on doors and making calls!
posted by filthy light thief at 8:36 AM on October 5, 2018 [40 favorites]

Meanwhile, in other news.....

Interpol chief Meng Hongwei vanishes on trip to China

"France has opened an investigation into the disappearance of Meng Hongwei, the Chinese head of the international police agency Interpol.

His family have not heard from him since he left Interpol HQ in the French city of Lyon for a trip back to China a week ago, police sources say.

"He did not disappear in France," a source close to the inquiry told AFP.

The South China Morning Post quoted a source as saying Mr Meng, 64, was "taken away" for questioning in China.

The Hong Kong-based newspaper added that it was not clear why he was being investigated by "discipline authorities" or where he was being held."

posted by anastasiav at 8:39 AM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

Holocaust historian Christopher Browning, author of the excellent Ordinary Men:

“If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell.”
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:42 AM on October 5, 2018 [127 favorites]

posted by Rainbo Vagrant : When Kavanaugh said he's not dropping out, that's what he was saying to Republicans: "I will not make this easy for you. If you want me gone, you have to take the knife in your own hands and look me in the eye as you plunge it in." Gory metaphor was Ezra's idea, not mine.

Well, should any republican suddenly remember that women are people, I remind them, No More Spoons. Only Knives.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 8:44 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Elizabeth Warren’s new, tantalizing claim about Kavanaugh shows what utter madness this is

On the Senate floor late Thursday, Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) made a new and tantalizing claim about what’s in the FBI documents on Brett M. Kavanaugh that all senators have now reviewed. Senators are severely limited in what they can say about these documents, which are summaries of the interviews that the FBI conducted as part of their renewed background check into Kavanaugh, after Christine Blasey Ford went public with charges that he sexually assaulted her, which led to a host of new claims like that one and others about his drinking at the time.

Warren noted these limitations and said the following (emphasis added):

“Senators have been muzzled. So I will now say three things that committee staff has explained are permissible to say without violating committee rules. … One: This was not a full and fair investigation. It was sharply limited in scope and did not explore the relevant confirming facts. Two: The available documents do not exonerate Mr. Kavanaugh.

And three: the available documents contradict statements Mr. Kavanaugh made under oath. I would like to back up these points with explicit statements from the FBI documents — explicit statements that should be available for the American people to see. But the Republicans have locked the documents behind closed doors.”

posted by kirkaracha at 8:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [135 favorites]

And three: the available documents contradict statements Mr. Kavanaugh made under oath

That's already all in public domain: he said he wasn't a drinker in high school and college in the FoxNews interview, which is clearly a lie, and that interview is now sworn, under oath testimony.

And that's not the only lie he made under oath. They should have been banging this drum louder and longer, but they didn't. And now it's "too late", because I-have-no-idea-why.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:56 AM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

@AlexNBCNews: SEN FLAKE says he plans to vote yes tomorrow on Kavanaugh unless something big changes and he doesn’t see what would change. Says was a hard decision for everybody.

Murkowski is a firm no: “If people who are victims, if people feel that there’s no fairness in our system, particularly within our courts, we’ve gone down a path that is not good and right for this country.” She also says she believes Kavanaugh is a "good man."

And now all eyes turn to Sen. Collins.
posted by zachlipton at 9:03 AM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

I showed my student, a Brazilian judge with very little prior info on the situation, a 5m video of the committee hearing and she was shocked that such a petulant immature emotional man could be the judge of anything. So I doubled checked our bias with a neutral outsider and yes, the Republicans are the assholes.
posted by Glibpaxman at 9:03 AM on October 5, 2018 [50 favorites]

I get tired of saying this and thinking this and going over this to myself but:

the Democrats just don't get to break the rules the way Republicans do. I want them to, most of the time, but it really isn't as simple as fighting the battle in front of us. The Republicans can wield their own hypocrisy like a weapon, the Democrats cannot. And that is a huge disadvantage at all times, regardless of that the Democrats do or don't do.
posted by lydhre at 9:04 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

Wait, if Murkowski votes no on this tomorrow with Montana-wedding guy absent that's it, right? So long as Manchon votes no, this is done, 49-50 against.
posted by Slackermagee at 9:10 AM on October 5, 2018

Nope. They’ll vote Sunday then.
posted by saturday_morning at 9:10 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

Mod note: Let's pull back on the speculation about what horrible people will say/do - it doesn't add anything substantive to the thread.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 9:12 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Murkowski is a firm no: “If people who are victims, if people feel that there’s no fairness in our system, particularly within our courts, we’ve gone down a path that is not good and right for this country.” She also says she believes Kavanaugh is a "good man."

"Seating the serial-sexual-assault-monster would harm victims and the country. Serial-sexual-assault-monster is a good man."
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

And now all eyes turn to Sen. Collins.

If she votes no, she lines herself up nicely for her upcoming gubernatorial run.
posted by leotrotsky at 9:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

mcstayinskool: And that's not the only lie he made under oath. They should have been banging this drum louder and longer, but they didn't.

Democrats are doing this. It might be nice for Warren to get more specific about which contradictions she was talking about. But to use just one example, Leahy had a whole Twitter thread devoted just to the ways Kavanaugh lied about the Manny Miranda emails.

Of course many individual Democrats are not 100% optimal in their messaging. But it's not like the American people are in the dark about Kavanaugh because of Democratic inaction. It's because of many factors predisposing them to believe any conservative white man accused of assault, and to believe any attendant excuse for subsequent behavior, including lying.

When we read a poll, do we think "Dammit, Christine Blasey Ford should have shown up to the hearing instead of staying home? If only she'd told her story, people would grasp the creep we're dealing with."

The "drum" for Democrats to bang basically doesn't exist, any more than the correct argument that makes toddlers realize that vegetables are good for them. Regardless, the party has been banging on most of the available surfaces.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 9:16 AM on October 5, 2018 [35 favorites]

InTheYear2017: well said. I retract my earlier criticism. I'm just pissed.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:18 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

So it's all down to Collins then? And she is facing the mega-funcing drive that either goes to her or her opponent depending on this vote which, last I heard/checked, is up to almost 2millionUSD...

I hate this season's scriptwriters. It's all so like an episode of Pee-Wees Playhouse where the word of the day is 'icky'.
posted by RolandOfEld at 9:19 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Protesters Chug Beer Outside Mitch McConnell's House (Video): Protesters reportedly chanted "I like beer" in protest of the vote to approve Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:19 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

either goes to her or her opponent

Under no circumstances does it go to her. It either goes to her opponent or to no one.
posted by OnceUponATime at 9:21 AM on October 5, 2018 [29 favorites]

Murkowski: “Kavanaugh not the right man for the court at this time” (NBC News)
posted by Barack Spinoza at 9:21 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

Steven Dennis, Bloomberg reporter, "Watched Murkowski entire time. Her demeanor changed a bit after Collins & Flake voted aye - her vote no longer the deciding vote. She looked down for a while, closed her eyes, blinked a bunch, then looked up with resolve. When her name was called she stood and said ‘no’ softly."

Does Joe Manchin really think his double-digit lead would evaporate if he voted no? I understand the value of having an ostensible Democrat in Manchin's seat, but he's also got to be willing to risk a little of his victory margin.
posted by gladly at 9:21 AM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

WRT the NYT article Rifts Break Open at Facebook Over Kavanaugh Hearing linked above, an annotated photo (at The Daily Mail) shows Facebook's Joel Kaplan in the 2nd row left, and his wife Laura Cox Kaplan in the 1st row left (between Kavanaugh's mother and wife). White House Counsel Donald McGahn is in the 1st row far right.
posted by cenoxo at 9:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

The GOP almost certainly colludes to assign "no" votes. It's not like they don't talk to each other.

Two people can vote "no" and they can still win, so there's very likely a lot of backroom dealing over who either can "afford" the vote or who will look better to their constituents for voting no.

Call me when there's three dissenting votes and the GOP loses - otherwise, my assumption is that this is just bullshit strategy to make them look like they're not in lockstep.
posted by Frowner at 9:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [41 favorites]

Wait, if Murkowski votes no on this tomorrow with Montana-wedding guy absent that's it, right?

Wedding guy's absence means nothing; of course they're going to do whatever is procedurally necessary to get his vote.

So it's all down to Collins then? And she is facing the mega-funcing drive that either goes to her or her opponent depending on this vote which, last I heard/checked, is up to almost 2millionUSD...

The MeFi assumption seems to be that the fund is an effective incentive for Collins. However, Collins has said that she is repulsed by the purpose of the fund; according to her, its existence makes her more likely to vote for Kavanaugh.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:27 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Cornyn:
an allegation with no evidence

Sworn testimony is evidence.

And the implication that it isn't is even more damaging to our system than pretending the "innocent until proven guilty" standard applies to a Senate confirmation.
posted by Gelatin at 9:28 AM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

Friendly reminder: Do not ever read the comments on a Daily Mail article unless you are in desperate need of an emetic.
posted by aspersioncast at 9:28 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Cornyn:
an allegation with no evidence

Sworn testimony is evidence.

To Cornyn, Soros being a Jew carries greater evidentiary weight than sworn congressional testimony. We are absolutely past the realm of reasoning.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:32 AM on October 5, 2018 [23 favorites]

If I might make a suggestion: instead of spending tomorrow following every detail of the vote, go join a protest or canvass for a candidate in your area. I promise you that, no matter the outcome of the vote, you will feel better having taken action and being amongst others taking action.
posted by mcduff at 9:39 AM on October 5, 2018 [40 favorites]

You know, I've just explained cloture to about a dozen different people on Facebook, and I'm done. People - pay attention in civics class. Geez.
posted by anastasiav at 9:40 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

People - pay attention in civics class. Geez.

Decades of Republican cuts to education have paid off.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:41 AM on October 5, 2018 [67 favorites]

I would assume most people didn't have a civics class.
posted by flatluigi at 9:41 AM on October 5, 2018 [30 favorites]

> However, Collins has said that she is repulsed by the purpose of the fund; according to her, its existence makes her more likely to vote for Kavanaugh.

Words mean nothing. Just because she's repulsed by — shock horror — the use of money as speech, just because she complains about it, just because she asserts that she's not influenced by it, doesn't mean that it's not an effective tool to sway her vote in the correct direction.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:44 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

Does Joe Manchin really think his double-digit lead would evaporate if he voted no? I understand the value of having an ostensible Democrat in Manchin's seat, but he's also got to be willing to risk a little of his victory margin.

Does he? What's the payoff for that risk when the Pass/Fail result is identical either way? I dream of a proper Dem in those purple seats too, but Manchin is a dozen points more liberal in his votes than the most liberal Rep Senator in the whole country. He's about 40 points more liberal than the other WV senator, which is a very reasonable predictor of what sort of R we'd end up with if he's not in that seat. And none of that addresses the whole razor's edge we're close to on Senate control where we could prevent votes from even coming up.

That this means votes to move forward confirmations for rapists and baby-jailers is disgusting and repugnant, but so is triage that forces a field surgeon to choose between removing a limb or letting someone die. And it is beyond question that Manchin being a vote to prevent the removal of the ACA meant saving lives.

I believe in the value of symbolic votes and showing voters why they should keep fighting and showing up too, but Manchin's margin isn't so big this is a safe deal. A lot of the polls showing him in the lead over the past months have had that lead within the margin of error. Some folks above said in the past how irrelevant this never-ending back and forth over his is because so few people in the country know who he is, but that cuts both ways on the question of whether he should risk reelection over a vote that doesn't change a result.

The MeFi assumption seems to be that the fund is an effective incentive for Collins. However, Collins has said that she is repulsed by the purpose of the fund; according to her, its existence makes her more likely to vote for Kavanaugh.

There's hardly any other way she can answer questions about it, though. Admitting it works - and there's no way a pol doesn't see a 2M shot in the arm for an opponent as a legitimate threat - would just help the people funding it.
posted by phearlez at 9:46 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

My kids take Civics in high school: the third one is in the class this year. All nine sections of it are taught (sorry, "taught") by a guy who starts every year by telling the kids that he's only teaching all nine sections of Civics so that he can do one drama class.

His role is vital, and yet he frames the entire year's clastime by telling the students that he's making a sacrifice just to be in the room.

GAAAAAAHHHHHHHH!

(And no, they're not having dynamic conversations about honesty and responsibility and checks & balances: instead, they're doing "research projects" where they mess around on their Chromebooks for days at a time and then make a slide deck.)
posted by wenestvedt at 9:46 AM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

So it's all down to Collins then? And she is facing the mega-funcing drive that either goes to her or her opponent depending on this vote which, last I heard/checked, is up to almost 2millionUSD...

The pledged donations will go to her opponent if she votes yes or not be processed at all if she votes no. There is no option in which the money goes to Collins.
posted by melissasaurus at 9:47 AM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

This is not "symbolic." Right now, Machin is making Collins's life easier, even if he eventually votes no, even if he doesn't just go whichever way she does to give her cover. If he does vote with her, of course, it makes her life much, much easier, and the Republicans can claim bipartisanship, but even if he doesn't in the end, right now the possibility that he will gives Collins public and psychological cover to get to yes. Even if we end up somehow defeating this, that cover is indefensible, the single most counter-productive act by any Democrat on the national stage. So yes, that deserves more than just a moment of collective venting -- it's a political act that we should be pushing against right now. Has everyone who has made the rounds called Manchin to tell him to stop providing political cover, stop treating this as a game, and stop being a wimp when he's up 10 points in his state and this single vote has no realistic decisive effect on his election? Everyone in the MSM portrays this fight as tribalism gone amok, but of course it's the same tribalism as ever: the tribe of facts, reason, and evidence on the one side, and Republican loyalty above all that on the other. But the one bit of tribalism I keep seeing is the defenses of Manchin on pragmatic grounds -- which are both in error (he's up by a lot), and exactly the same defenses that Collins is making for herself and that Republicans (especially Republican women) are making for their Kavanaugh support. They all have tight races to win, and yet we are asking them to do the right thing, and getting pissed off because they genuinely seem to think he is worth voting for. Manchin is saying and doing the exact same thing, and it does matter.

But even apart from pragmatics, we've already decided that (1) voting for attempted rapists is not an acceptable thing regardless of pragmatics, and (2) it's not a distraction to criticize multiple persons during these terrible times. At the very least, these are important practical and moral arguments to be having, even if they are of lesser scale than some others out there right now, and it would be really great not to have another pragmatist-bro telling us to shut up because "Actually, he needs to maybe vote for the attempted rapist because..." This is not venting, this is not a distraction, this is not circular firing squad: a Democrat is already doing the wrong thing by presenting himself as ready to vote for Kavanaugh, and that is not merely "symbolic." Even if he does the right thing eventually, he's still doing the wrong thing right now, and we can do something about it -- or at least, as much as we can about any of this horrible stuff. Manchin deserves to be called and called out.
posted by chortly at 10:00 AM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

The pledged donations will go to her opponent

Which, by the way, nobody has a clue (ok, maybe guesses, but that's all) who that might be. I'm presuming Shenna Bellows will run against her again (although Collins crushed her last time), but I bet there will be a LOT more. I can imagine there will be an ENORMOUS scrum for that money if it is on the table. Even $1M is a gigantic amount of money in Maine media markets. The candidates will be able to blow their entire budget on the primaries, knowing their is a pot of gold there if they win.
posted by anastasiav at 10:01 AM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

according to her, its existence makes her more likely to vote for Kavanaugh.

There are two kinds of people who say something like this. Liars who are looking for an excuse to do what they were going to do anyway, and abusers.
posted by Etrigan at 10:05 AM on October 5, 2018 [47 favorites]

There are two kinds of people who say something like this. Liars who are looking for an excuse to do what they were going to do anyway, and abusers.

And people who don't like to be blackmailed. I felt the same way when I first heard about it, it seemed like something that would easily backfire.

I think it would be more effective if the money raised would be given to *her* if she voted no. Bribery is easier to swallow than threats. Of course, that would be blatant vote buying, but well... that ship has pretty much sailed (NRA, Citizens United). But knowing she's not getting the money either way, and that it might go to some unknown opponent in the future? Too abstract, and too much of an "F you". I'm not surprised it would push her the other way.
posted by Roommate at 10:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

Now would be SUCH a good time for a DJT Jr. indictment.
posted by contraption at 10:14 AM on October 5, 2018 [34 favorites]

In case anyone was hoping that Daines' absence might mean that one fewer "no" vote might be needed: Daines has made arrangements to be back in DC if needed.
posted by StrawberryPie at 10:15 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

Aren't we now in that "sphere of influence" where nobody hands out indictments because elections?

As for post-presidency Trump; well, here's hoping the FBI knows how to bug people.
posted by Melismata at 10:15 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

I felt the same way when I first heard about it, it seemed like something that would easily backfire.

you wanna talk potential to backfire, check this out:

The pledged donations will go to her opponent

Which, by the way, nobody has a clue (ok, maybe guesses, but that's all) who that might be.

I mean, I hope it works on Collins, but oh lordy are there problems baked into this method of influence-buying.
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:18 AM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

Now would be SUCH a good time for a DJT Jr. indictment.

I doubt you are going to see anything until after the November election. While Mueller is not operating directly under the Dept. of Justice ethics rules, he probably realizes that mucking in elections is bad policy. He's knows better than to pull a Comey. I do expect things to accelerate sharply after the election, but who knows.
posted by JackFlash at 10:20 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Powerful stuff from Lady Gaga on Stephen Colbert's show:

I will tell you something, because I am a sexual assault survivor. And the truth is, you know, Trump the other day was speaking at a rally, and he said, ‘She has no memory of how she got to the party. Should we trust that she remembers the assault?’ And the answer is ‘yes.’

And I'll tell you why. I'll tell you exactly why, and I also know this woman is smart because she’s a psychologist – she’s no dummy. If someone is assaulted or experiences trauma, there’s science and scientific proof – it’s biology – that people change. The brain changes. And literally what it does is it takes the trauma and it puts it in a box and it files it away and shuts it so that we can survive the pain.

And it also does a lot of other things. It can cause body pain. It can cause baseline elevations in anxiety. It can cause complete avoidance of wanting to even remember or think about what happened to you. But what I believe that have seen is that when this woman saw that Judge Kavanaugh was going to be possibly put in the highest position of power in the judicial system of this country, she was triggered, and that box opened. And when that box opened, she was brave enough to share it with the world, to protect this country.

posted by kirkaracha at 10:20 AM on October 5, 2018 [107 favorites]

And people who don't like to be blackmailed.

"I'm gonna give this money to someone to displace you if you don't vote the way I want" is blackmail exactly as much as "if you take this dish off your menu I am going to this other restaurant instead" is. You can find the money that exist in politics so gross - and you should find it gross - that you can't help but be a bit put off by publicly playing that game, but as far as I am concerned the value in finding a way to pressure folks who aren't immediately up for re-election way tips that scale to the side of light. Two-thirds of Senators get to pretend there's no electoral consequence for them when they take high pressure votes because the big money Mercer/Koch types are the only ones with multi-year memories. If this is icky it's an identical icky that Collins has well come to feel accustomed to when it comes to big donors. If this discomforts her then maybe she can use this time to think about how she ought to be feeling the same icky when it's $5,000 individual donations rather than $50 ones.
posted by phearlez at 10:38 AM on October 5, 2018 [28 favorites]

Trump Is Just Another Crooked New York City Landlord - John Whitlow, NYT OpEd. "Mr. Whitlow is a tenant attorney and a law professor."

Just as the Trump family built its wealth through price-gouging and discrimination against tenants in the complex and easily manipulated regulatory environment of New York City, the Trump administration is now engaged in a scaled-up version of the same project: tax cuts for the already wealthy, the gutting of the administrative state and a white-nationalist-inspired immigration policy.
…
There is a long history of New York City tenants coming together to organize against landlords like the Trump family. These efforts have been most effective when tenants have constructed multiracial coalitions and have relied on tactics from rent strikes to eviction blockades to cooperative housing to strategic litigation. As we confront America’s landlord, the lesson we can draw from this history is that we must organize creatively and fight to save the place we call home.

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:42 AM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

I mean, I don't disagree with anything you said, phearlez, but nothing you said counters my basic point - positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement, and negative reinforcement often backfires.
posted by Roommate at 10:42 AM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

@MichaelAvenatti
What just transpired is the clearest example yet of why the old approach of the Dem party is not working. If we continue on this path, the values, principles and rights that matter most will be lost forever. We must fight fire with fire. And when they go low, we must hit harder! [...] And let us remember that we are in this position because we did not go to the mat and do everything we could possibly do to save the Garland nomination. We were out maneuvered and out fought. And now this.

Hey Democratic Party establishment: I really, really, really, really do not want to consider Avenatti the best 2020 presidential prospect. Help me out here.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:46 AM on October 5, 2018 [81 favorites]

The President of the United States Has Gone Full InfoWars
When he's not getting Very Confused about North Korean missile launches on Fox News

When the apocalypse comes, the president will learn about it on Fox News. That's one thing you can take from a charming little story about Donald Trump, American president, relayed to the people of this nation by Lindsey Graham. The South Carolina senator, who once said Trump was a "kook" who was "unfit for office," but now calls himself one of the president's closest allies, told The Washington Post a fabulously reassuring tale as part of a profile published Friday morning:

Shortly after Trump was elected, he invited Graham to the White House for a chat. They ate lunch with Chief of Staff Reince Priebus and national security adviser H.R. McMaster, beside a flat-screen television tuned to Fox News.

Graham said the president had wanted to get his thoughts on national security, the subject that Graham considers his specialty. So, he told the president his two biggest concerns were Iran and North Korea, at which point, the television started showing archived footage of North Korean missile launches. The president, Graham said, worried that this was happening in real time.

“That’s old footage, old footage!” Graham said he told him, laughing now at the memory.

Haha! I think we can all laugh at the idea we elected a Fox News Grandpa as president who is so acquainted with How Things Work he thinks North Korea could launch a couple of ballistic missiles and nobody from, say, his sprawling ranks of military and intelligence officials would give him a head's up before he saw it on The Presidential News Network. Yes, this was early in his administration, but come on. We've got to have higher standards for, uh, the most powerful human being on the planet.

posted by kirkaracha at 10:48 AM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

> positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement,

This is highly situational, and assumes equal magnitude of the positive and negative reinforcements in question.

The problem applying this logic to an electoral context is that offering to give $1 million to Collins for doing the right thing vs. threatening to give $1 million to her opponent are not actually equal reinforcements due to the giant electoral advantage of incumbency that makes her far less dependent on the lump sums of money that would help a challenger gain traction.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:49 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

I didn't catch the name of the Republican senator who was just interviewed by Blitzer on CNN, but he alluded to an arrangement whereby a Democratic senator would sit out the vote to balance the Republican missing the vote for his daughter's wedding. Blitzer pressed him for the name of the Dem, but he wouldn't provide it, saying he wasn't sure the arrangement was finalized.
posted by sardonyx at 10:51 AM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) started off by saying "Before the Senator from Missouri leaves, confession is good for the soul and I want to share something that will shock him, and that is there are a number of things that I did while in high school and college that are not very prominently displayed on my campaign material. So, there, I've said it." Then went on to say he's an enthusiastic yes on BK. Not trying to liveblog here, but, um, WTF? Are they really going with the "we've all done it" excuse?
posted by Ruki at 10:52 AM on October 5, 2018 [35 favorites]

On Thursday, North Dakota senator Heidi Heitkamp announced she will vote no on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. This was a surprise. Heitkamp, who has said little about the nomination until now, voted to confirm Trump’s previous Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch. The most recent polls show her losing ground to a male challenger who said of Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations, “Nothing evidently happened in it all, even by her own accusation… It was supposedly an attempt or something that never went anywhere,” and then “Even if it’s all true, does it disqualify him? It certainly means that he did something really bad 36 years ago, but does it disqualify him from the Supreme Court?”

To Heitkamp it did. . . and the explanation she gave for her refusal was striking.

Irin Carmon, Why Heidi Heitkamp’s ‘No’ Vote Matters

Also, fuck Manchin. I understand that he's significantly better on many issues than even the most liberal Republican, but fuck him and his double-digit lead in cowardice.
posted by joyceanmachine at 10:52 AM on October 5, 2018 [33 favorites]

> I didn't catch the name of the Republican senator who was just interviewed by Blitzer on CNN, but he alluded to an arrangement whereby a Democratic senator would sit out the vote to balance the Republican missing the vote for his daughter's wedding.

That's nice. I'm sure they'd do the same if the roles were reversed.

Guess drinking time is going to start early today.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:53 AM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

> Josh Marshall of TPM: White House Begins the China Counter-Narrative.

Mike Pence Hints at the New Party Line: Blame China. Circumstances have been weaponized as a means of this administration*'s survival.
posted by homunculus at 10:57 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

I didn't catch the name of the Republican senator who was just interviewed by Blitzer on CNN, but he alluded to an arrangement whereby a Democratic senator would sit out the vote to balance the Republican missing the vote for his daughter's wedding. Blitzer pressed him for the name of the Dem, but he wouldn't provide it, saying he wasn't sure the arrangement was finalized.

Then it's a lie.

Everyone knows that anyone who does this is going to get hammered. No Democrat would agree to it unless they were going to vote to confirm anyway, because they'll get the same effect. So that Republican senator is floating it as a trial balloon, hoping to lure some red-state Democrat who's looking for a way to sit it out, or to claim afterward that there was an agreement that fell apart because the Democrats are liars or Chuck Schumer threatened someone or some other such nonsense.
posted by Etrigan at 10:57 AM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

> ... an arrangement whereby a Democratic senator would sit out the vote to balance the Republican missing the vote for his daughter's wedding.

Wait, doesn't "consent of the Senate" need an affirmative majority? Or is it always just a majority of the voting members?

And there's no excuse - none - for a Democratic senator to sit out to let a Republican off the hook, even to attend a wedding. I promise I will remember. Aside from which, what, if they care so much, they can't wait another day to hold the vote?
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:58 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

It would be so so rich if the Dems made this arrangement and then when it came time for the vote they pulled the ball away and the nomination failed. I vote for this reality, actually.
posted by OHenryPacey at 11:10 AM on October 5, 2018 [45 favorites]

> positive reinforcement works better than negative reinforcement,

This is highly situational, and assumes equal magnitude of the positive and negative reinforcements in question.

I don't think we even need to examine that, since I absolutely agree that Roommate is right: positive reinforcement is better and negative can bite you in the ass. But the only sensible way to approach that is to say great: what do you got here that meets that criteria? Because I got nothing. So if we go with P > N, we have to now slot in "doing nothing" because that's basically the other choice here with regards to communicating future commitments to votes and campaigns. And I think it's pretty firmly on the right of N such that P > N > Fuck-all.

There's also the fact that there's really a pretty limited spectrum of options when it comes down to a politician like this and what is reasonable to expect anyone to do. Most everyone entering into this scheme isn't going to want Collins if they can possibly get a Dem. Collins knows that, so pretending there's any chance of a positive reinforcement when it comes to getting that person's vote is bullshit and everyone knows it. So the only thing on the spectrum is how hard am I going to fight you when the time comes and money is a great way to show right now what that's going to look like.
posted by phearlez at 11:12 AM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

an arrangement whereby a Democratic senator would sit out the vote to balance the Republican missing the vote

IIRC, this was a common thing done in a bygone era with non-controversial votes. This rule has been obsoleted by [ gesticulates widely ] ALL OF THIS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pair_(parliamentary_convention)
posted by mikelieman at 11:13 AM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

So I was looking at Strawberry Pie's post about whatshisname(R, MT) who's going to be flying back from his daughter's wedding to vote for Kavenaugh's confirmation.

Anyone else notice whose plane he's going to be flying back on? That's right, it's the plane belonging to his "good friend and colleague" Greg Gianforte, the guy best known for punching a reporter.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 11:19 AM on October 5, 2018 [20 favorites]

Somewhere, Anthony Kennedy is sitting in a comfortable chair watching the Kavanaugh confirmation circus unfold, and I sincerely hope that a bird shits in his drink.
posted by delfin at 11:19 AM on October 5, 2018 [41 favorites]

schmod: They'd always be able to vote again, no?

If Kavanaugh fails in a confirmation vote, then technically he can be re-nominated by Trump because there's no rule saying otherwise. (Trump could nominate any living human who is not in Congress. Or, I suppose, not an existing member of SCOTUS, like "confirm Geil Norsuch and then he'll have two votes on every decision".) That's considered way, way outside the realm of anything plausible, but hey, it's current_year.

If you just mean they could vote again because they didn't have a full chamber for the first time around... I'm not aware of anything the Senate ever does that requires a full chamber rather than a quorum of 50%, though someone should clarify whether (e.g in veto overrides or proposed constitutional amendments) there are times that "two-thirds of the Senate" really means two-thirds of existing senators and not two-thirds of voting ones.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 11:22 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

You have to vote on the prevailing side to make a motion to reconsider (try to vote again). If they didn’t have the votes, McConnell would switch his vote to “no” and bring it up later.

There are also other procedural hurdles to the motion to reconsider that I don’t know as much about.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:24 AM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

That's nice. I'm sure they'd do the same if the roles were reversed.

This same exact shitty thing happens on this side of the pond, BTW: recently a faithful and trusting Labour Member of Parliament who was due to be absent from the House of Commons on maternity leave made an arrangement to swap votes with her opposite number from the Conservative Party...and was immediately betrayed by him when the division bell rang (i.e. the vote was called).

As Dave Faris always argues, we're getting slaughtered on this observation-of-comity stuff, which is deader than dogshit in Dulwich in June. I hate to think maybe Avenatti has a point, but, y'know...maybe Avenatti has a point.
posted by adamgreenfield at 11:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [22 favorites]

USA Today with the female equivalent of Kavanaugh's WSJ letter.

Democrats' big miscalculation: Conservative women like me won't abandon Brett Kavanaugh

There are so many of us. Women watched the hearings with Judge Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford last week and were furious. Furious — but not for the reason you might think.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:25 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Feels like 1980 all over again, with Phyllis Schlafly standing up and saying all sorts of things.
posted by Melismata at 11:27 AM on October 5, 2018 [27 favorites]

Alexandra Petri, I am an independent, impartial judge

Or maybe it was judge-like behavior. MARK Judge! All right! I will be here all week. I will be here your entire life. It’s a lifetime appointment, baby!

Look, why would you judge people by how they behave when they are put unfairly on trial, which is, like, the most stressful point in their entire lives? That just doesn’t seem fair at all and — oh, my God, I am just now understanding how the justice system works and why people are always so upset about it.

posted by zachlipton at 11:30 AM on October 5, 2018 [36 favorites]

"I'm gonna give this money to someone to displace you if you don't vote the way I want" is blackmail exactly as much as "if you take this dish off your menu I am going to this other restaurant instead" is.

And on top of that, Collins and the other Republican legislators get that same message all the time from the ultra-wealthy they serve. It's high time we the people deployed that same power to our own ends.
posted by Gelatin at 11:32 AM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

I've seen polling that the biggest gap for women on Kavanaugh is between married and unmarried women. Make of that what you will.
posted by clawsoon at 11:33 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

she's conservative and for conservatives/republicans party affiliation trumps all

I honestly wish we'd stop referring to them, or allowing them to refer to themselves, as "conservatives." They're reactionaries. They don't want to conserve any of the arguably beautiful things wrought by the Enlightenment (yes, yes, I know they were only ever beautiful for a very few): they want to unwind matters until we live in a land where citizenship is a thing of blood and soil, and inferiors are chattel property, know their place, and rightly fear the lash, the badge and the shackle.

Reaction. Call it by its right name. As it were.
posted by adamgreenfield at 11:35 AM on October 5, 2018 [50 favorites]

homunculus: Mike Pence Hints at the New Party Line: Blame China. Circumstances have been weaponized as a means of this administration*'s survival.

Pairs nicely with "Tariff payments" to farmers who are impacted by the Trump-made trade wars. But the soy bean farmers know who their customers are -- Illinois farmers welcome $12 billion in aid, but prefer trade: 'There’s no magic crop out there'

Illinois soybean farmers caught in the middle of President Donald Trump’s trade war with China might see some short-term relief from $12 billion in aid announced Tuesday, but they’re still worried about losing their best customer.

Illinois was the largest soybean-producing state last year, with more than $3 billion in exports, shipping more to China than any other state. But that relationship, which benefits farmers and rural communities throughout Illinois, hangs in the balance after China imposed tariffs earlier this month on $34 billion worth of U.S. imports — a retaliation to Trump’s tariffs on an equivalent amount of Chinese goods.

I wonder how many will take up the chant that We Have Always Been In Trade Wars With China?
posted by filthy light thief at 11:40 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

how about a loudmouthed maniac who promises to hire/appoint rational experts? galaxy brain!

Avenatti's been compared to LBJ in that he has the specific sort of personality disorder that allows a Democrat to accomplish meaningful socio-economic reform. So if the parallel plays out, expect Avenatti to enact a second New Deal and then start the Iran War.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:42 AM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

We don’t vote on reproductive policy alone, and many of us voted for President Donald Trump because at least he talked about taxes and regulations and eliminating government agencies — things we knew would affect the American economy, not just our own jobs but those of our husbands, sons and brothers.

Yes, he talked a lot about taxes and regulations, then gave rich fuckers a massive tax cut. He hasn't eliminated any government agencies and wants to add a Space Force. And he's coasting on--and claiming success for--Obama's economic gains.
posted by kirkaracha at 11:46 AM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

> I honestly wish we'd stop referring to them, or allowing them to refer to themselves, as "conservatives." They're reactionaries

Nah.” Making “conservative” a dirty word is a good thing — it forces them onto defense and denies them a symbol to rally around.

We can use “conservationist” to cover most of the good senses of “conservative.”
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 11:46 AM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

are there links to these stories or a summary of their contents or is this just another invitation to some free-associative slagging on NPR
posted by prize bull octorok at 11:52 AM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Waiting for Collins is killing me.
posted by anastasiav at 11:57 AM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

@pksmid: Jury finds Chicago police officer Jason Van Dyke GUILTY of second degree murder for killing 17-year-old Laquan McDonald while on duty in 2014.
posted by zachlipton at 11:58 AM on October 5, 2018 [98 favorites]

Democrats' big miscalculation: Conservative women like me won't abandon Brett Kavanaugh

There are so many of us. Women watched the hearings with Judge Brett Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford last week and were furious. Furious — but not for the reason you might think.

This author is yet another person who, in my opinion*, fails to realize that this isn't an election, where if your side loses the other person gets the job. Like, HRC isn't waiting in the wings to be sworn in if Kavanaugh isn't approved, you know? Instead of saying, "let's be pragmatic and get literally any other conservative person in here for approval", it's another person who had never heard of Kavanaugh before this summer and is all. in. on this guy alone. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


And I get why, we don't need a whole back and forth on it, but the math just doesn't add up for me. I guess that's one of the reasons why I don't vote R anymore.

*as a former voter-of-Republicans-by-default
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:59 AM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

NPR has been doing a whole series of "China bad" stories lately. All of which are just transparently propagandistic.

I haven't seen the NPR pieces, but I've read other pieces and China is doing some terrible things, but I doubt that they're things Trump and Pence would give a shit about.
posted by homunculus at 11:59 AM on October 5, 2018

@pksmid: Jury finds Chicago police officer Jason Van Dyke GUILTY of second degree murder for killing 17-year-old Laquan McDonald while on duty in 2014.

Plus sixteen counts of aggravated battery (one for each bullet he fired). (Not guilty for first-degree murder and official misconduct.)

The closing arguments were broadcast live yesterday, and I was struck by how much it felt like an echo of the Kavanaugh hearings. The female prosecutor walked methodically and calmly through each charge, while Van Dyke's male lawyer spent something like an hour venting histrionic outrage about dragging this poor man's name through the dirt.
posted by theodolite at 12:05 PM on October 5, 2018 [38 favorites]

Here we go. Collins is up in the Senate now. Some delay due to a demonstration in the gallery.
posted by anastasiav at 12:08 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Word from reporters on the floor is that the GOP senators are guffawing, backslapping, and have shit-eating grins. Sounds like Collins is on the Trump Train now.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:08 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

She's talking about "special interest groups with their followers". She's a yes.
posted by anastasiav at 12:11 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

Collins is speaking. Before she opened her mouth, numerous protestors loudly chanted in unison from the gallery. She has started her speech by talking about how horribly politicized all the opposition to Kavanaugh was from the start.

She is very clearly a yes on his confirmation.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:11 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Con law prof Richard Primus writes about a Trump filing in the NY AG suit against the Trump Foundation:

I'm reading a brief filed on behalf of @realDonaldTrump, arguing for a certain presidential prerogative. It quotes language from McCulloch, omits the word "congress," and inserts instead "the Executive Branch." Without saying anything has been changed.

And Massachussets lawyer Owen Barcala shows the side-by-side comparison.

This method of "quoting" previous cases is... not best practice.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:11 PM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

McConnell had lunch with Collins today, and I assume he made some promises he'll actually keep. I have to think she'll be a yes.
posted by gladly at 12:12 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Collins is basically reading off an MRA manifesto right now. Blaming everyone who opposed Bart as shills and duplicitous ladies of ill-repute.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:12 PM on October 5, 2018 [26 favorites]

"special interest groups with their followers"

Her figleaf for Soros. They're all Nazis.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:13 PM on October 5, 2018 [21 favorites]

She doesn't think he'll fuck with the ACA. My dog is barking furiously at the tv right now. My dog is a smart dog.
posted by Ruki at 12:16 PM on October 5, 2018 [46 favorites]

Looks like there's going to be quite a scrum to get that cool two million bucks.
posted by Faint of Butt at 12:17 PM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Like I said, they needed time to properly prepare the spin.
posted by clawsoon at 12:17 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

I just want to say how proud I am of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Deborah Ramirez and Julie Swetnick and all the other people who came forward publicly to do whatever they could to stop this travesty.
posted by joyceanmachine at 12:21 PM on October 5, 2018 [128 favorites]

Now that this farce of a process is almost over, with the most predictable cynical outcome procured, just wait for the next Jane Mayer and Ronan Farrow byline in The NewYorker. There's more. There's always more.
posted by mcstayinskool at 12:22 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

So not only is she in the bag, but it was her role to generate buzz for this 3pm conference in order to get maximum eyeballs as she goes deep in the paint trying to rehab Bart, right?
posted by lazaruslong at 12:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

Collins, far from being swayed by the voices of survivors, appears frustrated and angered by the chaos they have caused in the institution.

She's the same pig as her male colleagues, reveling in this public moment of misogynist cruelty she is inflicting on hundreds of millions of women.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [50 favorites]

@democracydiva: susan collins's speech is longer than the FBI investigation into kavanaugh
posted by zombieflanders at 12:28 PM on October 5, 2018 [86 favorites]

Democrats' big miscalculation: Believing Literally A Single Fucking Thing Conservatives Have Ever Said About Caring About Women.
posted by tocts at 12:30 PM on October 5, 2018 [23 favorites]

She doesn't get to be called moderate ever again. The cruelty is the point and she is deep in it.
posted by Ruki at 12:30 PM on October 5, 2018 [39 favorites]

@SarahPalinUSA
Hey @LisaMurkowski - I can see 2022 from my house...

Hellworld is only beginning.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:31 PM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

Glad she took the time for McGahn to polish that speech up.
posted by Cocodrillo at 12:32 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Isn't it just grand to realize that having rapist assholes to support galvanizes the Republican base even more than policy does? What a fucking world we live in.
posted by lydhre at 12:34 PM on October 5, 2018 [32 favorites]

I can't figure out if Collins is aware that she keeps contradicting herself in her statement, if she thinks it's the best she can offer as cover, or if it's all meant to be part of the fuck-you-all theatre.

Kavanaugh isn't an evil conservative who would do things like overturn Roe vs Wade ! He named Brown vs. Board as one of his top-five decisions!
~three minutes later~
Kavanaugh believes in precedent! Except when it's really important to overturn something, like in Brown vs Board!
~five minutes later~
People are upset because Trump said he'd only appoint people who would overturn Roe vs Wade, but Republicans always promise that! Since 1980! We always break that promise! You can trust us!
posted by halation at 12:35 PM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

Aaaand now she's moved into the "these accusers are filthy lying whores" part of her speech.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:35 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

She doesn't think he'll fuck with the ACA.

She doesn't care if he does, that's just cover for Manchin.
posted by halation at 12:36 PM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

A good friend of mine is among those who protested in the hallway outside of Collins' office today. She's been texting me periodic updates. Shortly before Collins began her announcement, my friend said they were all pushed back from Collins' office under threat of arrest.

I need this country to be right-side up, y'all. I need this grotesque spasm of reactionary white male fragility to be fucking suffocated and buried in an unmarked grave. What the fuck is wrong with these people?
posted by escape from the potato planet at 12:39 PM on October 5, 2018 [34 favorites]

I turned on Susan Collins' press conference and oh boy was it a bad idea. This speech is disgusting. She is talking about how bless Dr. Ford's heart, we really need to think an assault was more likely than not, and there's no reason to believe her really, followed by at best half-truths. She is disturbed by the idea that the Senate confirming Judge Kavanaugh is somehow condoning sexual assault (narrator: it is). I am absolutely livid and shaking with rage. I sent an email to my mother earlier saying "this is what I'll be thinking of next time a Republican is non-violently heckled out of a restaurant". This speech is DISGUSTING.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 12:41 PM on October 5, 2018 [34 favorites]

The train is very, very urgent. It is moving a man’s career forward. It is very difficult to get the train to stop.

The presumption is that the train will not stop. The presumption is that you will be a scream thrown on the tracks. That it will require a great many of you to be thrown onto the tracks before the train will grind to a halt. It can never be just the one; it must be several at once.

(Previously linked Alexandra Petri opinion but bears repeating)
posted by inflatablekiwi at 12:41 PM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

Collins appears to be throwing her cherished (and phony) "moderate" cred to the wind. So the question is, what did McConnell promise her at that lunch, and is it the purview of the next Democratic senate to investigate?
posted by Gelatin at 12:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

Party über alles.

Collins is just telling you who she really is.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 12:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

After spending most of her speech demonizing accusers, Collins actually has the fucking gall to talking about how necessary #MeToo is, despite having just essentially laid out a manifesto for why it needs to go away.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:44 PM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

She's also talking about how professionally and respectfully Chuck Grassley and his staff treated Professor Ford so I guess Susan Collins just decided that today was "lie about everything" day.
posted by Mrs. Pterodactyl at 12:46 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

Here we go: Collins is teeing us up for Letterghazi
posted by halation at 12:46 PM on October 5, 2018

@ppppolls:

Earlier this week we found that Susan Collins led a generic Democrat 42-34 for reelection.

But that if she voted for Kavanaugh, that dropped to a 45-45 tie.

posted by Chrysostom at 12:47 PM on October 5, 2018 [61 favorites]

Isn't it just grand to realize that having rapist assholes to support galvanizes the Republican base even more than policy does?

A good reminder that the prime motivator of Collins' grotesque spectacle is the sadism and brutality in the heart of every single member of the Republican voting base.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:47 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

How DARE she talk about Dr Ford's well-being after all that?
posted by Ruki at 12:47 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

And Senator Aunt Lydia votes "yes."
posted by Shadan7 at 12:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [30 favorites]

She detailed all the things she thinks are inconsistent about Ford's story. Honestly the part that made me whisper-yell "Fuck you" was when she said, partway through, that she does believe Ford experienced an assault of some kind. That is such drivel from so many Republicans. For one thing, if you really think it's some kind of giant hole that we can't ascertain who, if anyone, gave Christine a ride home (really), then that hole remains regardless of who the "actual", non-Brett-and-Mark perpetrators may be. Just drop the pretense and call her a liar if you're going to engage with the facts and then reject them.

She also argued that the standard for rejecting Kavanaugh on the basis of the allegation is lower than reasonable doubt... but is equal to "more likely than not". That's also bogus, in my opinion. I happen to think he's way past even reasonable doubt, but I would mark the requisite threshold for SCOTUS as way lower, like 10% or less. You shouldn't confirm a person with a 10% chance of being a rapist, and presumably there are lots of Americans who can meet the standard.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 12:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

Why are we liveblogging here
posted by Melismata at 12:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

Because of how the *Democrats* acted, she says we need to re-evaluate how we confirm SCOTUS nominees. Jesus.
posted by So You're Saying These Are Pants? at 12:49 PM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

So basically our only hope is that Flake or Sasse or somebody has been telling McConnell, "yes, you've got my vote," and is just gaming him before flipping at the last minute. I don't like our chances.
posted by martin q blank at 12:49 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

And now she's going with the alt-right conspiracy theory that the Dems are super villains and deserve to be held accountable for what she is claiming was a coordinated attempt to take advantage of sexual assault survivors.

She's taking our already low expectations and somehow going even lower.
posted by zombieflanders at 12:49 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

November 6th needs to send a fucking message.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:49 PM on October 5, 2018 [22 favorites]

There's an "appalling lack of compassion" somewhere... just... can't... put my finger on... where... Must be the letterleaker's appalling lack of compassion causing all the suffering! Couldn't be a whole crew of assholes implying that she's mixed up her assailant with a similar looking high school boy like has never happened in the history of the world!
posted by Don Pepino at 12:50 PM on October 5, 2018

Sen. Collins is a yes.

@Hegemommy: Susan Collins voting for Kavanaugh is the perfect snapshot of white women bringing Trump and his administration over the finish line.
posted by zachlipton at 12:51 PM on October 5, 2018 [62 favorites]

I just went over to try to donate to the anti-Collins thing but crowdpac.com has crashed. Seems like I'm not alone.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

We know how Republicans never shut up about Robert Bork, never mind that he was rejected on a bipartisan basis in part from the taint of his participation in the Watergate cover-up.

Democrats must never, ever accept Kavanaugh as legitimate. He's a tainted judge, openly partisan, put in place after a sham hearing -- just like Clarence Thomas -- and an even more phony "investigation."

Maybe Republicans would accept a deal, next time the Democrats are in a position to change things: Impeach Kavanaugh for lying to the Senate, and we won't expand the Court to 15.
posted by Gelatin at 12:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [12 favorites]

Shout out to the mods, by the way! Thank you. Seriously.

Collins finally stopped talking, to fucking applause. I'm going to go rage clean now.
posted by Ruki at 12:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

So basically our only hope is that Flake or Sasse or somebody has been telling McConnell, "yes, you've got my vote," and is just gaming him before flipping at the last minute. I don't like our chances.

Political Wire says, "Republican leaders now have 50 committed votes to confirm Kavanaugh."

If that's true, doesn't 50 + Mike Pence = game over?
posted by kirkaracha at 12:52 PM on October 5, 2018

Her speech reminds me of how awful it is to have to listen to horrible, hateful Republicans who can actually speak English. The W years, followed by Trump, made it easy for me to focus on how idiotic the evil side was. This is harder for me to watch.
posted by mabelstreet at 12:53 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

If Collins ever eats at a public restaurant again, it'll show more courage on her part than this did.

Seriously. Doing this means that even if she has dinner delivered every night, her main course should stare at her intensely and then hurl itself onto her living room carpet in disgust.
posted by delfin at 12:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

Democrats must never, ever accept Kavanaugh the Supreme Court as legitimate until we remove at least 2 (probably 3) justices and/or pack it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:55 PM on October 5, 2018 [23 favorites]

And now that he has the chance to be the 51st vote instead of the 50th: @KellyO: BREAKING: West Virginia Democrat @Sen_JoeManchin will vote YES on Judge Kavanaugh

That would set up a 50-49 vote tomorrow, with Pence breaking the tie, if Steve Daines stays in Montana, unless someone changes their mind or there's somehow another no vote secretly hiding out there somehow.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

kirkaracha, Political Wire's 50 includes Flake and Sasse. With Murkowski a no they need one more R and no Dems to vote yes to get to 51 and thwart pence.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:56 PM on October 5, 2018

Mod note: Just a reminder, if you need to scream into your keyboard for a while, we have a place for that.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 12:56 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

they are comparing #meToo to mccarthyism. wow.
posted by So You're Saying These Are Pants? at 12:57 PM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Of Course No One Wanted to Tell Trump He Had Toilet Paper Stuck to His Shoe

You can see him climb the stairs with the toilet paper trailing behind him in the video below starting at minute 4:45. It's a metaphor your freshman year English professor would circle in red pen with the comment, "This is really laying it on thick, don't you think? You've already clearly established that this guy is a piece a shit in a dozen other ways. Also, this plot really strains credulity. Consider changing your major to anything but this."
...
Anyway, a bunch of people poured out of a car, many of whom obviously saw DJT come out of some public bathroom or Port-a-Potty somewhere with TP stuck to his heel, and not one of them said anything to him. This is no shade to any of the Secret Service agents, who have a very hard job that requires an incredible level of skill and sacrifice and also requires having to be within earshot of Trump's speaking voice and is therefore tantamount to torture. But surely Trump had someone, anyone, in the car with him to tell him he did a good job and he is a smart guy and everyone loves him. Don't Republican leaders sign up for that job in shifts? Did Lindsey Graham call out of coddling duty?

posted by kirkaracha at 12:59 PM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

True fact.

If even one Republican senator believed what Susan Collins said about Kavanaugh and Roe v. Wade, they would vote no. That's how we know she is lying.
posted by JackFlash at 1:00 PM on October 5, 2018 [63 favorites]

This is harder for me to watch.

If you actually attend to her arguments, and not just the fact that she can semi-coherently present them while not sounding like a struggling third-grader sight-reading a text two grade levels above their current skills, she's less-impressive. I'm not actually sure if that helps.

I would very much like to know what she has been promised for this -- not that I think she's incapable of being this horrid in her own sincere heart, and not that she's not attention-hungry and pleased just with this spotlight, but I do suspect some overture was made. It's not entirely laughable to think that she fancies herself an eventual candidate for a VP spot, if not the top of the ticket -- that she's somehow able to thread the #MeToo needle, safely on the side of the patriarchy but conveniently A Woman and therefore handy to have around when you need to silence other, less-convenient women.
posted by halation at 1:00 PM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

Now's the time for the Democrats to read that fucking FBI report into the record.
posted by schmod at 1:02 PM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

In addition to pure venting , MeFites are discussing the Kavanaugh vote on Chat
posted by Doktor Zed at 1:02 PM on October 5, 2018

If Collins ever eats at a public restaurant again, it'll show more courage on her part than this did.

Seriously. Doing this means that even if she has dinner delivered every night, her main course should stare at her intensely and then hurl itself onto her living room carpet in disgust.

She needs to have a personal Shame nun dressed like a Handmaid following her around for the rest of her public life.

With the bell.

We could take turns.
posted by leotrotsky at 1:02 PM on October 5, 2018 [26 favorites]

@davidmackau: collins says she hopes kavanaugh — who was nominated by a president who lost the popular vote & will be confirmed 51-49 after historically low polls & roiling nationwide protests unlike anything seen in modern US history — brings the country together on the supreme court. ok!
posted by zachlipton at 1:03 PM on October 5, 2018 [55 favorites]

If Kavanaugh in any way resembled the judge Collins is describing, Trump would have never nominated him."
posted by tonycpsu at 1:07 PM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

Joe Manchin has announced that he, too, will vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. And there it is.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 1:08 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

Sure, Manchin will literally allow you to be murdered by the state in a dozen ways, but he has the letter next to his name though
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:10 PM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

I suspect that Collins is right that Kavanaugh will never vote to overturn Roe, instead he will be the fifth vote to affirm any restrictions that red-state legislatures can think of for women to get an abortion. Under Planned Parenthood v. Casey, states may not place an "undue burden" on a woman's access to abortion, but SCOTUS is the arbiter on what constitutes an undue burden. SCOTUS could potentially affirm any number of ridiculous restrictions that would practically eviscerate access to abortion, except of course for those with the resources to travel to more humane jurisdictions.

Roe itself doesn't need to be overturned to allow state laws to make it incredibly difficult/expensive/uncomfortable to get an abortion. So it's basically open season on a woman's right to control her body, but I think Roe itself is safe.
posted by skewed at 1:12 PM on October 5, 2018 [33 favorites]

They went all in on Ed Whelan's theory. Both Collins and Manchin played the "I believe she was assaulted" card. As Manchin just put it: "I believe Dr. Ford...Something happened to Dr. Ford. I don't believe that the facts show it was Brett Kavanaugh."

We can measure the progress we've made since Anita Hiill quite clearly. Back then you called the victim a liar, and much worse, to her face. We've evolved, learned that's unacceptable. Now you just say she's "mixed up" and ignore her anyway. Strange justice, indeed.
posted by zachlipton at 1:13 PM on October 5, 2018 [29 favorites]

She needs to have a personal Shame nun dressed like a Handmaid following her around for the rest of her public life.

With the bell.

We could take turns.

I'm very tired of my job, I could just do this instead. Y'all are no doubt quite busy.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 1:13 PM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

Last Week Tonight: Once again, it's time to play...
posted by Crystalinne at 1:14 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Maybe Chuck Schumer should have spent a little less time worrying about Maxine Waters and a little more time worrying about Joe Manchin
posted by zombieflanders at 1:15 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

In his statement, Manchin wants everyone to know that "With respect to any cases that may come before him impacting the 800,000 West Virginians with pre-existing conditions, Judge Kavanaugh assured me personally that he would consider the human impacts and approach any decision with surgical precision to avoid unintended consequences."

a) good thing somebody's employing "surgical precision," i guess, since that's the closest those 800K constituents will be getting to a surgeon, or any other medical professional, at the end of all this
b) people with pre-existing conditions being left to die is in fact an intended consequence -- but then, you know that, joe
posted by halation at 1:15 PM on October 5, 2018 [41 favorites]

"surgical precision" means that white people will be taken care of.

this isn't even coded.
posted by schmod at 1:19 PM on October 5, 2018 [75 favorites]

"Surgical precision" has a military-connotated ring to it that gives me the creeps. Add to this that (also speaking metaphorically) I'm wary of people trying to do surgically precise things when their hands may be shaking.
posted by Namlit at 1:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

The Either Sen. Collins Votes No On Kavanaugh Or We Fund Her Future Opponent page is showing Internal Server Error right now and has been for at least a few minutes
posted by scrowdid at 1:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [20 favorites]

Not to liveblog, but the past two senators speaking on the floor, Stabenow (D, MI) and Hassan (D, NH) both hammered very hard on the ACA/healthcare/pre-existing conditions issue in their remarks. I assume this was directed at Manchin, although I don't see how they get him back now that his i'm-voting-yes statement is out.
posted by halation at 1:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

SPLC: Richard Spencer's white nationalist 'institute' gets back its tax-exempt status from the IRS

With Cornyn and Collins on board with (((Soros))) conspiracies it sure feels like the mask is slipping a tad.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:27 PM on October 5, 2018 [26 favorites]

Um, in the middle of Collins' speech, Trump just replaced the Office of Personnel Management Director, who has only been on the job for a few months, and installed a deputy director from OMB as acting director. The White House has been trying to present civil service reform legislation, which employee unions fear could further politicize the personnel process for the federal workforce.
posted by zachlipton at 1:29 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

In talking this over with my co workers here in Portland, a couple of things before I turn off my computer and go outside.

- Consensus, from the start of her speech, is that she was pushed too hard, and like a toddler she dug in her heels and said I WON'T DO IT. I do have some sympathy for her staff, who are probably dealing with a lot of wingnuts and really unhinged people, and who we know have been threatened. I do. They're human people, mostly women, and even though they work for Collins I don't wish that kind of abuse on anyone. I suspect in the long term the Crowdpac fund did more harm than good....

.... which leads me to point 2, which is that nobody I've talked to in Maine thinks she's going to run for anything again, which has sort of freed her up.

Anyhow, I'm furious and shaking and so I'm going to take my kid to the fair and watch a tractor pull. My husband and I talked it over this afternoon and decided that going to DC this weekend is a bad idea (and now probably hopeless anyhow), and that money was better spent on passports. So tomorrow we get photos and Monday we go take our passport forms in.
posted by anastasiav at 1:29 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

@jrpsaki: who wants to run for Senate in Maine? there will be an army of supporters with you

@AmbassadorRice [Susan Rice]: Me
posted by zachlipton at 1:30 PM on October 5, 2018 [103 favorites]

This was always the most likely outcome. So don't despair.

The good news is that we put up one hell of a fight. Rather than just letting them breeze though a scumbag like Kavanaugh we made sure the entire country knew what was going on, and who the Republicans (and Manchin) were really voting yes on. We've laid good groundwork for other fights going forward, and we've laid the groundwork for getting rid of Kavanaugh, or packing the Court, later.

Not that this is good news, or a good outcome. Obviously it would have been vastly better had we won. But that was never likely. When the Republicans have a majority it means they'll do bad things, and we have to weather that and fight back even though we know we'll lose.

We must also prepare for what is going to come. Don't let yourself fall into the comfort of thinking that Roe will merely be chipped away, that is not the goal. They will overturn Roe for the symbolic victory if for no other reason. Find your local abortion rights groups and support them. There's already group in place helping women get out of forced birth states and into free states, they're going to need more money, more driver, and more whisper network help going forward.

Keep the rage and use it. Get your friends out to vote in November. Support the freedom groups. We're going to lose again, and again, and again until 2020. Even if we win in the House or Senate in November just Trump being President is going to mean we lose again and again. Don't let that let you lose heart.

The late, great, Molly Ivins once said of Reagan's presidency that the rest of America had lessons to learn from Texas liberals, and that's true again. What she meant was, we're used to losing down here and fighting anyway. All of us, nationwide, have to keep protesting, keep calling, keep writing, and keep voting. This is not something we'll win quickly, repairing the damage from Trump and the Republicans will be the work of decades, not weeks. We're going to have to win every chance we get, impede when we can't win, and protest what we can't impede.

This is a loss. But it does not mean we're beaten.
posted by sotonohito at 1:30 PM on October 5, 2018 [118 favorites]

Here's a little mini-essay I wrote and posted on Facebook last night, inspired by my dealings with Trumpists on Reddit:

When did you stop beating your wife? When most of us are asked a question like that, it short-circuits your brain a bit because any kind of normal response implies you agree with the premise of the question. Most if not all people are susceptible to being thrown off balance with this kind of verbal trickery. People who use words as weapons can be quite adept at jamming their opponent's thought process with a stream of carefully crafted nonsense. It's one of the more insidious and infuriating behaviors of the Republican rank and file. I wonder who's feeding them these thought viruses, because they're obviously not clever enough to come up with them on their own.

In the last couple of weeks I've noticed Republicans using distorted versions of ideas like "due process", "innocent until proven guilty", "whataboutism", and "moving the goalposts". The distorted version is always used to make liberals look foolish and/or question their own thought processes.

For instance, they claim to care about "due process", but their version of due process is a grotesque caricature of the real thing. If you don't realize what they're doing, this can make you wonder why you feel like arguing against your own principles. If you do recognize what they're doing, it's hard to begin arguing with them without an aside about the difference between Republican "due process" and actual due process, which is distracting and kind of makes you look like a crank.

"Whataboutism" was a tricky one for me. Republicans have started accusing liberals of it when we point out their party's blatant hypocrisy. I knew their usage of the word was wrong, but I had to really sit down and think about it before I could come up with a coherent explanation of why it was incorrect. Abusing an idea we use to talk about how people abuse ideas is an especially meta kind of mind-fucking.

This is not a new phenomenon. Sartre spoke of something similar in his 1946 essay "Anti-Semite and Jew":

“Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. The anti-Semites have the right to play. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.”
posted by shponglespore at 1:32 PM on October 5, 2018 [34 favorites]

I’m so fucking tired of being exhausted and sad, so I want to offer a general hug to any other exhausted, sad person out there who wants it.

Thanks to everyone here for the commentary. I don’t chime in much, but I read faithfully and these Hell Threads are keeping me sane.
posted by Salieri at 1:35 PM on October 5, 2018 [82 favorites]

sotonohito: This was always the most likely outcome. So don't despair.

Absolutely. What we're feeling now is basically what the people of Alabama spared us last December by not electing Roy Moore; that was a long-shot blessing that actually happened.

In fact, I think it's safe to say that had Moore's seating depended entirely on a Senate confirmation, he would have passed it and become a senator. Whereas I believe that if Kavanaugh's confirmation was for some reason decided by the popular vote of a single state, even a slightly reddish one, he probably would have faltered.

This is less about a generic awfulness in the American people (though it is hugely about that) than about the antidemocratic parasites running the show.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 1:41 PM on October 5, 2018 [22 favorites]

ActBlue also has a "whoever's playing the Yankees running against Collins" page up. I prefer donating through ActBlue over CrowdPAC anyway since they've been around for much longer and grew out of the so-called netroots.
posted by tonycpsu at 1:46 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

So now the GOP leadership appears to be actively working towards making Ford the criminal.

@samstein:

Grassley says he is still going to be investigating and collecting information on Dr. Ford's allegations.

“She raised issues in testimony and if you raise issues in your testimony we ought to have information to back it up.”

Lock Her Up: Not just for the Clintons anymore!
posted by zombieflanders at 1:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [53 favorites]

"It feels like there must be a sweet spot, an ideal proportion of all these powerful feelings that dangit, I just keep missing."
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:58 PM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

If I might make a suggestion: instead of spending tomorrow following every detail of the vote, go join a protest or canvass for a candidate in your area. I promise you that, no matter the outcome of the vote, you will feel better having taken action and being amongst others taking action.

I did this today, went out canvassing in my R +14 House district for the seriously amazing Stephany Rose Spaulding, even though Nate Silver said at the end of September that Lamborn has a 98% chance of winning reelection. I don't exactly feel better, but I suppose I'd feel worse if I hadn't. I stopped by the Democratic Party office and picked up literature (beautiful flyers with all of the Dem candidates, for each precinct) for the coordinated campaign to drop off in a precinct without a PCP (precinct committee person) over the weekend. I said that I was pretty sure it was the only orphan precinct I could help and I'd be back with the flyers for my precinct were printed and the volunteer running the coordinated effort said, "Don't feel bad, you're doing more than most." And I about cried, because it's true and because what I'm doing feels like so little, even though in better moments I truly believe it matters, it's still awfully hard to face how uphill it is. There's value in the slog and all, but I'm tired, we're tired, and we must keep going.
posted by danielleh at 2:11 PM on October 5, 2018 [24 favorites]

So now the GOP leadership appears to be actively working towards making Ford the criminal.

Demonization is a classic page out of their playbook.
posted by ZeusHumms at 2:19 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Grassley says he is still going to be investigating and collecting information on Dr. Ford's allegations.

So now you want an investigation?
posted by kirkaracha at 2:24 PM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

> Grassley says he is still going to be investigating and collecting information on Dr. Ford's allegations.

Well, Grassley is certainly doing more than his fair share to earn my eternal hatred. Orrin Hatch, Lindsey Graham, these are no surprises. I wonder why I had a slightly higher estimation of Grassley's worth as an elder statesman before this disgusting shitshow.

(And I don't know why I'm so hung up on this, but why is Joni Ernst never a part of the conversation? We're always looking to some GOP women to at least try to do the right thing, but she never even makes the list of candidates for persuasion. When I go looking, I find bullshit like this:

I do believe that there has been some trauma that Dr. Ford has experienced in her past, but it cannot be corroborated or tied to Brett Kavanaugh, so we have to look at the facts as presented, and the facts as presented is that there is no connection between the two. Understanding that, we need to move forward

... and it fills me with so much rage that I have to take a walk.)
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:26 PM on October 5, 2018 [10 favorites]

I concur with sotonohito. He was always very likely to get confirmed, and the hail mary activities were brave and awesome and probably always doomed to fail.

The only -- ONLY -- hint of a silver lining here is that perhaps the bump in marginal energy among the GOP base will dissipate now that they've got Justice Blackout on the court.

I hope they feel happy and satisfied now, and think us vanquished, because it will shock them all the more when they lose so many seats in November.
posted by GrammarMoses at 2:31 PM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

Could, like, Frontline or some similar outfit hire Jim Comey to select a bunch of former FBI guys to interview Avenatti's client and all the Ramirez witnesses who weren't allowed to testify and everybody who knew him at Yale and tweeted their exasperation at not being able to get in touch with the FBI and put together a documentary?
posted by Don Pepino at 2:45 PM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

Comey already wrote his book; what's he up to? Just cooling his heels. He has time!
posted by Don Pepino at 2:46 PM on October 5, 2018

Better jobs!
posted by petebest at 2:54 PM on October 5, 2018

Maybe I've lost this in the megathread, but these numbers are just stunning, if still depressingly unsurprising, to me: Julia Sharpe-Levine, in Rewire.News,, looks at Why So Many White Women Don't Believe Christine Blasey Ford:
Less than half of white women voters in the United States believe Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations of sexual assault against U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. A poll released by Quinnipiac University on Monday revealed that 46 percent of white women believe Ford’s accusation, 43 percent believe Judge Kavanaugh’s denial, and 11 percent are undecided. The poll also revealed that 83 percent of Black people and 66 percent of Latinx people believe Ford. (Reflecting a lack of intersectional methodology, the research did not disaggregate non-white racial categories by gender.)

This statistic, while deeply troubling, is by no means a surprising turn of events. [...]
Sociologist Lisa Wade defines the patriarchal bargain as “a decision to accept gender rules that disadvantage women in exchange for whatever power one can wrest from the system. It is an individual strategy designed to manipulate the system to one’s best advantage, but one that leaves the system itself intact.” Monday’s poll revealed much about the state of racial and gender politics in the United States, including the fact that at least half of all white women voters in the United States appear to be deeply beholden to the patriarchal bargain.
posted by TwoStride at 2:55 PM on October 5, 2018 [32 favorites]

Nate Silver on what we are seeing in the polls: Also consistent with partisanship kicking in late in a campaign. We could easily see a bunch of this (blue districts polling bluer, red districts redder) that people will attribute to Kavanaugh but which was probably baked in anyway.

This is what I've been thinking because this reversion to the mean started a bit before the Ford hearings. But I think it would have happened regardless of Kavanaugh and its impossible to say precisely what effect this has had.

It's not great for us since we're the ones trying to grab seats. Republicans don't need to take any blue seats to hold the House while we have to take a bunch of toss-ups that lean red, but it was likely inevitable. But analysts like easy narratives and "Kavanaugh revved everyone on both sides!" is the easiest.
posted by Justinian at 3:01 PM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Sen. Collins is a yes.

@Hegemommy: Susan Collins voting for Kavanaugh is the perfect snapshot of white women bringing Trump and his administration over the finish line.

and a whole lot of OLD WHITE MEN
posted by bluesky43 at 3:03 PM on October 5, 2018 [21 favorites]

and on Collins, I hope my $20.20 will be well spent on her challenger.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:04 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

NBC News, The battle over accusations goes on as Kavanaugh nomination advances: Kavanaugh classmates ignored by the FBI speak out, reveal new text message.

Two former Yale classmates say they have made several attempts to share text messages raising questions about whether Kavanaugh tried to squash the New Yorker story that made Ramirez's accusations public — and say the FBI did not respond to their calls and written submissions to its web portal.

The text messages involve one potential eyewitness to the incident and the wife of another potential eyewitness.

The texts are a conversation between Kathy Charlton and a mutual friend of Kavanaugh's whom, NBC has confirmed, was identified to the FBI by Ramirez as an eyewitness to the incident. NBC News has received no response to multiple attempts to reach the alleged eyewitness for comment.

The story detailing Ramirez’s accusation was published in the New Yorker on September 23. Charlton told NBC News that, in a phone conversation three days earlier, the former classmate told her Kavanaugh had called him and advised him not to say anything “bad to the press.”

Then on September 21, according to the texts, that same person sent Charlton a text accusing her of disclosing their conversation to a reporter. “Hellllllooooo. Don’t F****** TELL PEOPLE BRETT GOT IN TOUCH WITH ME!!! I TOLD YOU AT THE TIME THAT WAS IN CONFIDENCE!!!”
...
Berchem sent to the FBI some of 51 screen shots of text messages she exchanged with her friend, Karen Yarasavage, the wife of Kevin Genda, another alum Ramirez identified as an eyewitness, to explain why Kavanaugh and his friends should be asked whether they anticipated a story about Ramirez as early as July.

Ramirez identified to the FBI Dave Todd, Kevin Genda and Dave White as eyewitnesses who were in the room during the alleged incident, according to a source familiar with the investigation.

In July, as the Washington Post quietly researched a story on a woman accusing Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct while they were in high school, Berchem said she received what she presumed was a misfired text from Yarasavage. The text suggests that Kavanaugh’s closest Yale friends and those Ramirez later identified as witnesses were searching for an old 1997 wedding party photo that includes themselves, as well as Ramirez and Kavanaugh, all smiling together.

The July 16 text notes that “Whitey,” or Dave White, sent a 1997 wedding party photo to the Washington Post. Berchem is not friends with White and assumed it was mistakenly sent to her. The text came 10 days after Dr. Ford sent an anonymous tip to the Washington Post’s confidential tip line, according to her testimony before the Senate.

posted by zachlipton at 3:16 PM on October 5, 2018 [37 favorites]

Sociologist Lisa Wade defines the patriarchal bargain as “a decision to accept gender rules that disadvantage women in exchange for whatever power one can wrest from the system. It is an individual strategy designed to manipulate the system to one’s best advantage, but one that leaves the system itself intact.”

Mona Elhatawy calls them "footsoldiers of the patriarchy."
posted by rhizome at 3:16 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

Elsewhere, Cook moves four governor's race ratings, all to the left:

SD: Likely R => Tossup
OK: Likely R => Lean R
IL: Lean D => Likely D
MN: Lean D => Likely D

South Dakota, incidentally, last elected a Democrat as governor in 1974.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:20 PM on October 5, 2018 [24 favorites]

The July 16 text notes that “Whitey,” or Dave White, sent a 1997 wedding party photo to the Washington Post. Berchem is not friends with White and assumed it was mistakenly sent to her. The text came 10 days after Dr. Ford sent an anonymous tip to the Washington Post’s confidential tip line, according to her testimony before the Senate.

This is 1991 all over again. Except now we have social media on our side to keep things from being buried, and I don't think this will be the end of the discussion of the Kavanaugh judgeship.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:20 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

and I don't think this will be the end of the discussion of the Kavanaugh judgeship.

The GOP He-man's Woman-hater's Club has been ignoring everyone all this time, so there's no reason that them going "FUCK YOU, YOU CAN'T STOP US!" should result in the end of any investigation or inquiries into Kavanaugh.

What would ratchet this up? Women taking a knee during the National Anthem. #WomensLivesMatter
posted by mikelieman at 3:26 PM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

Grassley Says Workload Discourages Women Senators From Joining Judiciary Panel, Then Walks Back Remark

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R., Iowa) predicted that there would be more Republican women on his panel next year, after suggesting that the panel’s workload was a deterrent.

“It’s a lot of work - maybe they don’t want to do it,” Mr. Grassley told reporters. “My chief of staff of 33 years tells me we’ve tried to recruit women and we couldn’t get the job done.”

Mr. Grassley later returned to clarify that he did not mean to imply women could not handle the committee’s workload, but rather that it made it less appealing to senators of both genders.

“We have a hard time getting men on the committee,” he said. “It’s just a lot of work whether you’re a man or a woman, it doesn’t matter.”

40% of Democratic seats on the Judiciary Committee are held by women, while 35% of Democratic Senators are women. Somehow, they seem to manage the workload just fine. 0% of Judiciary Republican seats are held by women, while women make up 6% of the Republicans in the Senate.
posted by zachlipton at 3:26 PM on October 5, 2018 [28 favorites]

What would ratchet this up? Women taking a knee during the National Anthem. #WomensLivesMatter

Lawyer strike, refusing to argue cases in front of the SC while Kav's on the bench. Pretty sure careerism kills that baby in the crib, but it's an idea.
posted by rhizome at 3:28 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

Gods protect Dr. Ford and Ms. Ramirez. They've destroyed their lives, their social networks, possibly their careers, to try and save us. And, to borrow a metaphor from Alexandra, they're just bodies trying to slow an unstoppable train.

Never before I have truly understood the spittle flecked insanity that was the Teahadists. I get it now. I feel a level of hatred I did not know I possessed. I want these people destroyed. I want to drive them before me and hear the lamentations of their women. I want to salt the earth where they stood.

And like most of us, I will try to channel this rage into production; campaigning, post carding, setting small altars to dark gods, but goddamn it y'all, I hate this fucking timeline, and when I catch up to whomever flipped the damn switch in 2015, I'm gonna smack them.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 3:30 PM on October 5, 2018 [82 favorites]

I want to drive them before me and hear the lamentations of their women. I want to salt the earth where they stood.

wish something worse upon their heads: wish for them to understand -- really fully entirely understand -- just how cruel they've been and how many people they've hurt. and wish for that understanding to affect them fully, emotionally and empathetically. wish for them to understand -- really fully entirely understand -- how cruel, and how hard, and how small they are.
posted by halation at 3:36 PM on October 5, 2018 [43 favorites]

@senWarren

Elizabeth Warren: This hurts. But even the fights we lose matter. Every time you called, and marched, and tweeted, you helped move us closer. And it was so close.

It’s ok to step back for a minute and take a breath. But you cannot give up. We still need you in this.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:36 PM on October 5, 2018 [66 favorites]

The crowdpac fundraiser for Collins' opponent is currently at almost $2.3 million. Collin's 2014 challenger raised $2 million in total (while Collins raised $6.2 million). This fund is HUGE for Maine politics.
posted by mcduff at 3:36 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

The crowdpac fundraiser for Collins' opponent is currently at almost $2.3 million. Collin's 2014 challenger raised $2 million in total (while Collins raised $6.2 million). This fund is HUGE for Maine politics.

Are there potential challengers already declared? I couldn't find anything but it may be too soon.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:38 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Lawyer strike, refusing to argue cases in front of the SC while Kav's on the bench. Pretty sure careerism kills that baby in the crib, but it's an idea.

This would be a hard sell if, say, you were working for the Innocence Project and your client lost at the appellate level. The same goes for any other person whose last hope is now, unfortunately, this farce of a court.
posted by This time is different. at 3:42 PM on October 5, 2018 [7 favorites]

Susan Rice and state House speaker Sara Gideon are looking at it, apparently. ME-01 rep Chellie Pingree almost surely will, too.
posted by Chrysostom at 3:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

Trump Faces Probe into Tax Fraud After NYT Exposes How He Helped Parents Scam Millions from Gov’t

Further to that, NYT reports: New York Regulators Examine the Trump Family’s Tax Schemes

New York City officials said on Thursday that they had joined state regulators in examining whether President Trump and his family underpaid taxes on his father’s real estate empire over several decades.[...]

“We are now just starting to pore through the information,” said Dean Fuleihan, the city’s first deputy mayor.

One type of tax that the city will examine is the real estate transfer tax. Officials said the extremely low valuations the Trump family placed on buildings that passed from Fred C. Trump to his children through trusts could have resulted in underpaid transfer taxes.[...]

Mr. Fuleihan said the city would also explore whether another tax avoidance maneuver by Mr. Trump and his siblings resulted in Fred Trump’s empire underpaying property taxes.[...]

Mr. Fuleihan said the scheme as described by The Times would have artificially driven down the profitability of Fred Trump’s buildings. And because city property taxes on rental buildings are based in part on profits reported by owners, All County would have had the effect of lowering the property tax burden.

Mr. Fuleihan said city and state agencies are cooperating on the effort. The State Department of Taxation and Finance announced on Wednesday that it was “pursuing all appropriate avenues of investigation.”

posted by Doktor Zed at 3:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

Manchin got the shit heckled out of him as he tried to "explain" his vote.
posted by halation at 3:58 PM on October 5, 2018 [29 favorites]

> What would ratchet this up?

Strategic defaulting. Class-action suits. Mass rallies. Staying home from work. Staying out of private transport systems. Refusing consumer consumption beyond the necessities. Withdrawing deposits. Denouncing all forms of rent-seeking. Ignoring mass media. Withholding scheduled payments. Fiscal noncompliance. Loud public complaining.

List above stolen from here. More suggestions available here.

The end goal is probably a general strike, but carrying out lesser sorts of loud and public withdrawal of consent is how we get from here to there.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:00 PM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

Hope it lasts the rest of your life, Joe.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:00 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

the patriarchal bargain

Perfect phrase for it, thanks for mentioning it.

What would ratchet this up? Women taking a knee during the National Anthem. #WomensLivesMatter

Hell no. No way I'm going to advocate hijacking and co-opting a protest action about a totally separate issue led by a group of organizers/participants with their own serious concerns.

lamentations of their women

I know that's supposed to be a funny pop culture reference, and I am definitely more sensitive than usual so maybe it's just me, but maybe rethink this one before using it again. It de-centers women (by separating them out from just people - there's "them" and then there's "women") and it also implies women are property ("their"). I am now cringing whenever I come across these daily, insidious reminders of the cruelty of patriarchy, even in fun, and even from allies.
posted by Miko at 4:12 PM on October 5, 2018 [68 favorites]

And I don't know why I'm so hung up on this, but why is Joni Ernst never a part of the conversation? We're always looking to some GOP women to at least try to do the right thing, but she never even makes the list of candidates for persuasion

I may seem unfair to put all the burden on Collins, but Joni Ernst is exactly as advertised. She is right-wing nutter ranked even more conservative than McConnell, Grassley and Graham. So you get what you expect.

Collins, on the other hand, has been masquerading as a so-called "moderate" forever. Her elections depend on deceiving enough independents and Democratic moderates to get her over the line. She is a fraud and a liar, and that is why she catches so much heat from the left.
posted by JackFlash at 4:13 PM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

40% of Democratic seats on the Judiciary Committee are held by women, while 35% of Democratic Senators are women. Somehow, they seem to manage the workload just fine. 0% of Judiciary Republican seats are held by women, while women make up 6% of the Republicans in the Senate.

I do imagine it would be a lot of extra work even for Republican women to work with those particular Republican men.
posted by srboisvert at 4:20 PM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

We're always looking to some GOP women to at least try to do the right thing,

we're not supposed to admit our double standards out loud like that. the idea is that we're always looking to some GOP "moderates" to do the right thing, although they aren't very moderate and they almost never do.

it is true that all two of them are women, yes.
posted by queenofbithynia at 4:24 PM on October 5, 2018 [13 favorites]

As an Alaskan voter I've been thinking about this very thing quite a lot this week. On the one hand I've coaxed, wheedled, persuaded, and guilt-tripped every friend and neighbor I think I can into contacting Murkowski's office. But nobody here was ever under any illusion about how Dan Sullivan, our junior senator, was going to vote. Of course I'll be waiting for his next election and by that time will have a long list of shitty things he's done which will motivate me to do whatever I can to get him unelected. But while I understand the immediate and practical calculus that results in targeting Senator Murkowski for pressure, it's complete bullshit for Sullivan to get a pass on all that. And yet when people remember this fight, Sullivan's party-line vote is not going to be part of the story they tell themselves.
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:31 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

What would ratchet this up?

Lysistrata 2018.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:34 PM on October 5, 2018 [31 favorites]

> But while I understand the immediate and practical calculus that results in targeting Senator Murkowski for pressure, it's complete bullshit for Sullivan to get a pass on all that. And yet when people remember this fight, Sullivan's party-line vote is not going to be part of the story they tell themselves.

that is such an important thing to point out. When I was feeling white-hot rage at Collins for her smarmy Collinsosity earlier today I had to remind myself that there were fifty other Republicans pledged to put shithead on the SC, and they all deserve as much rage as Collins does.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 4:40 PM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

Anyway.. I'll go back to what I said in the last megathread.

Regardless of how the confirmation vote goes, can we start doing our utmost to make sure that the Republican party never gets away from this and that the stench of it haunts them forever?

...

Because if they are determined to secure their longed-for Supreme Court majority by stooping to these kind of depths and if we are powerless to stop them at this moment in time I want to at least be sure that they pay the full price that ought to come due.

Starting today, and until further notice / until the Republicans cry for mercy, the word of the day should be PYRRHIC.

Maybe they won this round, but a new phase begins. Our job now is to make this a cautionary tale of the "be very damn careful what you wish for" sort.
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:40 PM on October 5, 2018 [18 favorites]

we're not supposed to admit our double standards out loud like that. the idea is that we're always looking to some GOP "moderates" to do the right thing, although they aren't very moderate and they almost never do.

it is true that all two of them are women, yes.

A friend of mine pointed out today how absolutely necessary the myth of the moderate is for our political media. It's clearly, patently a myth. But it's also a key to the "both sides" narrative, because the belief that some Republicans are reasonable or moderate is necessary for that narrative. Without that myth, there's nothing to contrast the partisanship. Without those "moderates," there's nobody to point to as a better example while lecturing everyone else. And then we might be in a situation where we'd have to think critically about which side is worse than the other.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 4:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

there were fifty other Republicans pledged to put shithead on the SC, and they all deserve as much rage as Collins does

Aw, I think she deserve a little bit extra for her extended drama, showboating, and hypocrisy in her speech today. (And the same would go for a man who made it all about them.) Like everyone gets a poop emoji and she gets an I Was Extra Shitty Today sticker, too.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:50 PM on October 5, 2018 [30 favorites]

When I was feeling white-hot rage at Collins for her smarmy Collinsosity earlier today I had to remind myself that there were fifty other Republicans pledged to put shithead on the SC, and they all deserve as much rage as Collins does.

Nobody needs to be reminded that Mike Crapo or Jon Cornyn are worse-than-useless shitheads. Occasionally people forget that Collins is also a worse-than-useless shithead 99% of the time because she gets so much hype from the media for the other 1% of the time. It's totally rational to be angrier at her, because she only has a political career because of that 1% of the time.
posted by mightygodking at 4:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

Lysistrata 2018.

Clytemnestra 2018.
posted by Rust Moranis at 4:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [22 favorites]

Starting today, and until further notice / until the Republicans cry for mercy, the word of the day should be PYRRHIC.

Sounds good to me (emphasis added):

The armies separated; and, it is said, Pyrrhus replied to one that gave him joy of his victory that one other such victory would utterly undo him. For he had lost a great part of the forces he brought with him, and almost all his particular friends and principal commanders; there were no others there to make recruits, and he found the confederates in Italy backward. On the other hand, as from a fountain continually flowing out of the city, the Roman camp was quickly and plentifully filled up with fresh men, not at all abating in courage for the loss they sustained, but even from their very anger gaining new force and resolution to go on with the war.

Ceterum autem censeo Trumpem esse delendam
posted by kirkaracha at 4:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

But I hope you feel empowered, sweet cheeks (Alexandra Petri, WaPo:)

Well, sure, I am going to vote yes on Kavanaugh, sweetie. Don’t become hysterical. But I just feel so awful it had to happen like this. It’s such a shame, I think.

I just think, dollface, if there is one thing that came out of all this, sugar, that was good, it is, pumpkin, that you got to have your say. Baby, you got to stand up in front of all these people and bear witness to what you felt like you had experienced, like a big girl! It was so important, and I absolutely believed you, sweetheart!

Chickadee, baby doll, your voice was so important. Your movement matters, honey. It matters, darling. It matters, sweet cheeks.

I think the people who should feel bad, though, honey pie (not you, of course, duckling!) are the people who told you that if you said something, it might matter. That was mean of them. What was so cruel was that you, baby girl, had to bear witness thinking that something would happen. I suppose you didn’t know, sugar tits, that nothing was going to happen, doll baby. But I was so inspired by you and what you did! It was so brave, pudding! It was so wonderful, toots!

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 4:59 PM on October 5, 2018 [51 favorites]

We're so through the looking-glass that Professor Lobster said something reasonable.

@jordanbpeterson
If confirmed Kavanaugh should step down.
posted by Rust Moranis at 5:01 PM on October 5, 2018 [22 favorites]

Murkowski is going to be voting as present as a courtesy to Daines. Of COURSE she is.
posted by Ruki at 5:07 PM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

It's still the same outcome no matter what, but you could argue that effectively makes Manchin the final deciding vote.

Her rationale is "I hope it reminds us we can take very small steps to be gracious."
posted by zachlipton at 5:12 PM on October 5, 2018

if you see the part of my brain that wants this to be an elaborate setup by several members of the oatmeal caucus to trick mcconnell into bringing the vote to the floor and then vote no, please take it out back and shoot it.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 5:16 PM on October 5, 2018 [33 favorites]

Her rationale is "I hope it reminds us we can take very small steps to be gracious."

I hope her constituents remember they can take very small steps to tick the box that is not next to Murkowski's duplicitous name. And I hope that Feinstein remembers there are other people in Senate hallways more worth hugging.

What the fuck. What is his rationale?

(part of) Peterson's whole weird deal is that you're not supposed to criticise or judge or do literally anything about other humans until "your own life is in order," and so presumably Peterson's looking at Kavanaugh's non-existent levels of self-control and rightly assessing that his house is not remotely in order. I suspect P's gonna lose a fair chunk of followers over this, though, having mistakenly believed dudes give him adulation for the Reasoned Consistent Logic (lol) he displays, and not for the specific shitty sexist conclusions he claims to have reached through said (laughable) "logic". His fans don't give a shit about the means, just the ends, but Peterson's puffed-up ego has long helped him avoid thinking much about that.
posted by halation at 5:22 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

Ascetic piety, what a way to live. Only one or two shades away from Heaven's Gate.
posted by rhizome at 5:29 PM on October 5, 2018

Yahoo:

New details have emerged about potentially thousands of Brett Kavanaugh’s White House emails and other records related to the Senate hacking scandal from early in the George W. Bush administration and other controversial subjects that have not been disclosed to the Senate, according to Democratic senators on the Judiciary Committee.

The undisclosed documents, which date from Kavanaugh’s time in the Bush White House, are set to be produced in coming weeks as a result of two Freedom of Information Act lawsuits, one pursued by Democratic senators on the Judiciary Committee and another by an outside privacy group, the Electronic Privacy Information Center (EPIC). Release of the documents is still subject to White House approval and other consultations.

posted by Chrysostom at 5:31 PM on October 5, 2018 [40 favorites]

What a terrifying time to be a son (Alexandra Petri, WaPo:)

It is a frightening time to be a boy.

At any moment, a powerful man at your place of work could take an interest in your career and compliment your work — and even if you act unprofessionally toward others, he will insist on mentoring you and helping you rise to the top of your field.

You may say whatever you want, and you will find, with horror, that your word is good enough for anyone. No matter what. You will speak about something that has happened to you, and you will be believed, regardless of your tone.

You can be president, no matter what you do, or what you say you’ve done. You will be on the Supreme Court (unless your name is Merrick).

You may try and try to pay your taxes, and they will simply refuse to let you. You may never have to pay taxes. You could go a lifetime and never have to show anyone a single tax return, even for an instant.

You may never face a consequence. It is a terrifying time to be a son.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:37 PM on October 5, 2018 [38 favorites]

Release of the documents is still subject to White House approval not gonna happen.
posted by uosuaq at 5:40 PM on October 5, 2018

Move On: We're cancelling a planned six-figure digital video ad expenditure for Phil Bredesen in Tennessee due to his Kavanaugh position. And similarly will be pulling all planned campaigning on behalf of Joe Manchin in West Virginia if he votes yes. Kavanaugh is unfit for the Court.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:42 PM on October 5, 2018 [70 favorites]

Susan Collins’s Enraging Speech Led Donors to Crash a Site Raising Money for Her Opponent
posted by bluesky43 at 5:44 PM on October 5, 2018 [26 favorites]

that effectively makes Manchin the final deciding vote.

Like a dozen people said this after she announced it, but it doesn't seem to make much sense. If Murkowski votes present, the final vote will be 50-48-1. If she votes nay, the final vote is 50-49. It doesn't really matter; someone's casting that 50th vote regardless, and if it wasn't Manchin, it would be Daines.

The last time a justice was confirmed on such a close vote was 1881, which means we get to learn about Justice Stanley Matthews, how facially race-neutral laws can still be discriminatory, and disprove Duncan Hunter's claim that racial discrimination was somehow never a thing on the West Coast.
posted by zachlipton at 5:47 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

The only thing I'll say about Manchin today is this: Chuck Schumer promoted him to part of leadership.

And this is how he repaid it.
posted by T.D. Strange at 5:49 PM on October 5, 2018 [19 favorites]

At this point, I feel like even if it means in the short-term the GOP may pick up a seat, every fucking "moderate" incumbent on the Democrat side needs to be driven out. Any argument about "but we might not win with a new candidate!" is already flawed, because I hate to tell you this, but: immortality is still in alpha at best, and won't be shipping anytime soon. Every incumbent is going to leave eventually whether you're ready for them to or not, so if they keep supporting the GOP and giving them their veneer of "bipartisanship" on important issues, why wait for them to leave on their own terms?
posted by tocts at 5:50 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

Let's check in on the First Lady...

@dadakim
Actually, maybe she's got bigger goals. OF WEARING A SAFARI OUTFIT EVERY DAY IN AFRICA. See, e.g., this photo from the other day in #Ghana.

Siri, how do I set a news image alert for Melania in a pith helmet?

@_alice_evans:
ta da... - just as you feared.

Melania Trump Raises Eyebrows in Africa With Another White Hat

Kim Yi Dionne, a political-science professor who specializes in African politics at the University of California, Riverside — and a creator of the [#FLOTUSinAfricaBingo] hashtag — said that what looked like a quibble over aesthetics was actually a more substantive criticism of the first lady’s understanding of Africa.

“When people think of Africa, they have these standard narratives,” Ms. Dionne said. “Her attire is a signal of her understanding of what Africa is in 2018. It’s tired and it’s old and it’s inaccurate.”

Melania Trump's colonial fashion statement should surprise absolutely no one.

Here’s a short thread on the history and significance of the pith helmet...
posted by peeedro at 5:52 PM on October 5, 2018 [28 favorites]

NYT, F.B.I. Review of Kavanaugh Was Limited From the Start

An exasperated President Trump picked up the phone to call the White House counsel, Donald F. McGahn II, last Sunday. Tell the F.B.I. they can investigate anything, he told Mr. McGahn, because we need the critics to stop.

Not so fast, Mr. McGahn said.

Mr. McGahn, according to people familiar with the conversation, told the president that even though the White House was facing a storm of condemnation for limiting the F.B.I. background check into sexual misconduct allegations against Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh, a wide-ranging inquiry like some Democrats were demanding — and Mr. Trump was suggesting — would be potentially disastrous for Judge Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation to the Supreme Court.

posted by zachlipton at 6:22 PM on October 5, 2018 [29 favorites]

NYT, F.B.I. Review of Kavanaugh Was Limited From the Start

The NYT's unnamed sources are happy to give the departing McGahn full credit for steering the Kavanaugh investigation and stepping in to do damage control after Trump's tweet on the 29th to the NYT about the FBI—"Actually, I want them to interview whoever they deem appropriate, at their discretion. Please correct your reporting!"

The White House could not legally order the F.B.I. to rummage indiscriminately through someone’s life, Mr. McGahn told the president. And without a criminal investigation to pursue, agents could not use search warrants and subpoenas to try to get at the truth.[...]

In talking with Republican senators, White House officials said, it became clear to Mr. McGahn that four people whom senators wanted to be interviewed: Deborah Ramirez, who alleged that Judge Kavanaugh exposed himself to her during a college party; Mark Judge, a high school friend who was said to have witnessed an assault by Judge Kavanaugh on Christine Blasey Ford at a high school party; and two other friends who Dr. Blasey said were at that party, P.J. Smyth and Leland Keyser.[...]

White House officials insisted that neither Mr. McGahn nor any other West Wing lawyer prohibited the F.B.I. from interviewing them. But some former law enforcement experts said it was an odd decision not to include the two people at the center of the controversy.

And Vanity Fair's Gabriel Sherman files another report from within Trumpland: “Folks Are Just Focused On Surviving”: Looking For A Midterms Lifeboat, Trump Jumped Into The Kavanaugh Culture War

Trump’s mocking of Dr. Ford from the rally stage in Mississippi on Tuesday night seemed a characteristically undisciplined outburst, a reversion to form, and it drew rebukes from key Republican senators who would decide Kavanaugh’s fate. But it was probably a result of an evolving calculation of the political forces that, more than the nomination, would shape the midterms. Advisers including Deputy Chief of Staff Bill Shine and outside allies Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie had been imploring Trump to get more aggressive on behalf of his Supreme Court nominee, sources said. “Defending Kavanaugh is a culture-war issue for Republicans that divides and splits the Democrats,” one Republican close to the White House said. “The problem has always been: how do we turn out the G.O.P. base?”

Kavanaugh, the West Wing realized, was a wedge issue, tailor-made for the struggle at hand, and by the end of the week, after a hamstrung F.B.I. investigation gave Republicans enough cover, Trump went all in. At a rally in Minnesota on Thursday night, Trump told supporters, “Democrats have been trying to destroy Judge Brett Kavanaugh since the very first second he was announced.”

According to sources, Trump advisers feel they’ve found a winning message that will help them hold the Senate and, in what might be magical thinking, keep the House. “It’s a political issue, and he’s going to take it to the next level. That’s how you get the G.O.P. base, which is 60-plus percent white male, to vote,” the Republican close to the White House said.[...]

Advisers say Trump’s mood has improved significantly this week, which in raw political terms, has been one of the best of his presidency.[...]

But as good as this week was for Trump, investing his political future in a deeply unpopular judge who’s been credibly accused of sexual assault is a sign of the relativity of expectations in Trumpworld. “Folks are just focused on surviving,” one prominent Republican said.

As Twitter commentator Charles Star (@Ugarles) put it earlier this week, "it's fucking wild that we're going to have decades of reactionary 5-4 decisions from a supreme court that has three justices in the majority that couldn't pull 60 votes from a Senate whose majority party represents a minority of citizens"
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [44 favorites]

Every incumbent is going to leave eventually whether you're ready for them to or not, so if they keep supporting the GOP and giving them their veneer of "bipartisanship" on important issues, why wait for them to leave on their own terms?

Well, personally I'd rather wait until I don't need them as a check against the agenda of a racist narcissist.
posted by kingjoeshmoe at 6:58 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

Well, personally I'd rather wait until I don't need them as a check against the agenda of a racist narcissist.

It turns out they're not, in fact, willing to perform that role.
posted by halation at 7:01 PM on October 5, 2018 [29 favorites]

Most of the people who traveled to DC to protest are still there. Everyone who booked return tickets for next week is still there. The most energized, the people most ready to burn the motherfucker down, are there, right now. If it’s a motherfucker-burning-down situation the first wave of potential motherfucker-burndowners are already in position and if they start burning the motherfucker down we can still head out there and join them.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:22 PM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

Susan Collins' career in Maine politics is over.

Many Mainers were already upset with her decision to support DeVos for Secretary of Education, but the support of Kavanaugh angers an even wider swath of the Maine electorate.

She had a 78% approval rating on 11/24/15.
In July of this year it had dropped to 56%.
On 8/21/18 it plummeted even further to 35%.

She is DONE and knew it when she announced her support for Kavanaugh today.

The media circus of a press conference she gave today was solely to secure her future position as a highly paid K Street lobbyist for some conservative think tank. It had nothing to do with representing her constituents.

As a friendly reminder to any other mefite Mainers who aren't already aware, you can request an absentee ballot on Maine.gov at https://www1.maine.gov/cgi-bin/online/AbsenteeBallot/index.pl?c=1
posted by OntologicalPuppy at 7:29 PM on October 5, 2018 [46 favorites]

A Young Activist’s Advice: Vote, Shave Your Head and Cry Whenever You Need To

NYT opinion piece by Emma Gonzalez. This is a portrait of resilience.
posted by bluesky43 at 7:41 PM on October 5, 2018 [41 favorites]

> I get that, but I don't think the general public will have their back they would have last week.

The most recent polls have Kavenaugh’s support dropping steadily all last week. Sure, it’s going up with Republicans, but there’s way more Democrats and independents than Republicans in this country. Also, the Republicans have all had their brains eaten by space worms, so no matter what their support of Kavenaugh was already assured.

I don’t think there’s going to be significant popular action against Kavenaugh, even though it would be a good thing if there were. I do think the delay makes significant popular action slightly more likely, just because folks have had time to get there. Sure, the mass media would be opposed to direct action in any form if it happened right now, but... the mass media would always be opposed, whatever week the vote happened.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

Move On: We're cancelling a planned six-figure digital video ad expenditure for Phil Bredesen in Tennessee due to his Kavanaugh position.
posted by T.D. Strange

Bredesen just torpedoed his own campaign today. The huge majority of Dem door-knockers and postcard-writers here are women and Bredesen just lost all of us. Most of us are quietly admitting that we'll still vote for him (have you seen the alternative? omg) but his GOTV effort died today.

Calling it now: Blackburn will win.
posted by workerant at 8:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [17 favorites]

Full statement of one of Dr. Ford's corroborating witnesses, who was not interviewed by the FBI.
posted by triggerfinger at 8:25 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

I probably should put this in the fucking fuck thread but that Rage Management Embroidery Project? It's almost done - just need to starch & press it, and set it into its hoop for eternal display/dismay.
posted by workerant at 8:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [25 favorites]

The most recent polls have Kavenaugh’s support dropping steadily all last week.

Kavanaugh already doesn't matter. The sting is already dulled, and it will soon be all but forgotten in the face of the next crisis. This is going to be one of those things that seemed like big deal two months ago.

The moment was lost. No matter how many people are in DC, the GOP has won with its base, even energized the base. I've been talking with those folks all day. The delay did not work in favor of women or Democrats. Unless something really weird happens around the time of the confirmation vote, the public is going to swallow this one, too.
posted by Miko at 8:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [5 favorites]

The delay did not work (...)

You keep saying this...
posted by runcibleshaw at 8:46 PM on October 5, 2018 [1 favorite]

I’m really interested in knowing what the breaking point for our country is, or if anything will change when that breaking point is reached. We’ve had some of the biggest protests and successful activist movements since Trump was elected, but the machine churns on. I’m not about to give up hope at all, I’m just really wondering what the “surely this...” will be. I don’t expect Mueller or institutions to save us, I want to know what has to happen for us to save ourselves.
posted by gucci mane at 8:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [15 favorites]

The biggest break will come when we all collectively realize voting is just one instrument in the orchestra of change and a loud enough sound requires all parts.
posted by The Whelk at 8:51 PM on October 5, 2018 [47 favorites]

It's hard for me to say this nomination will be different, that people won't forget. After all, I really thought people would remember Bush almost burning the country to the ground. However, there's something deeply personal about this nomination that I think will stick with people. This wasn't a fuck you out of hubris, stupidity, or deeply mistaken philosophy, it was a straight up fuck you to large part of the country. It felt personal, and that has a way of sticking with people.
posted by xammerboy at 8:54 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

You keep saying this...

Well, it'd be awesome if I were proved wrong, but that's a real Hail Mary. I no longer expect a "surely, this." Remember this?

voting is just one instrument in the orchestra of change

With Kavanaugh on the bench, we're pretty close to systemic capture. Gerrymandering passes the SC. Barriers to voting pass. Influence trading passes. Executive privileges and pardons pass. Disputed elections become GOP-determined. The loaded census passes.

Let's not kid ourselves. We don't vote our way out of that. This "blue wave?" if it doesn't happen, we continue the descent into authoritarianism and with every step away from democracy, it's harder to recover. The response to Kavanaugh doesn't give me confidence. I'm inspired and moved by the DC protestors. At the same time, it just doesn't mean anything to crowd into the Capitol with mostly peaceful intent. Who cares? In the eyes of conservative establishment, the bodies of thousands of angry women are not where the power is. Quite simply, they are inconvenient, not important. Every interaction between a protestor and a legislator that we cheer as brave and powerful becomes only a stage for that legislator to enact a drama about the dominance and dismissiveness they can demonstrate in the face of that woman. And their supporters love that. They are thrilled with it, as I know from spending too much of my day immersed in the relevant memes and discussions. Electoral politics are not being disrupted by women's orderly anger. They are not disrupted by arrests or by numbers. The protests give the GOP a great stage to show their supporters how indifferent they are. The supporters enjoy this and are proud of it. They are proud to be untouchable and unmovable and have convinced themselves that "honest" women and "real victims" are on their side. And enough women and, sad to say, real victims are supporting that view.

I'd like to think this is really a rubicon but I don't. I think we still don't have the leadership we need and we still haven't figured out the tactics that work. We're against an enormous historical tide that began before many of us were born.
posted by Miko at 9:03 PM on October 5, 2018 [72 favorites]

Quite simply, they are inconvenient, not important. Every interaction between a protestor and a legislator that we cheer as brave and powerful becomes only a stage for that legislator to enact a drama about the dominance and dismissiveness they can demonstrate in the face of that woman. And their supporters love that. They are thrilled with it, as I know from spending too much of my day immersed in the relevant memes and discussions. Electoral politics are not being disrupted by women's orderly anger. They are not disrupted by arrests or by numbers. The protests give the GOP a great stage to show their supporters how indifferent they are. The supporters enjoy this and are proud of it.

^^^ THIS. In the prelude to Wisconsin's passage of Act 10, my governor was swamped with hundreds of thousands of protesters thronging the capitol for weeks. He was so ostentatiously unmoved by 5% of his state marching in freezing rain against him that he wrote a book about how unintimidated he was by them.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:12 PM on October 5, 2018 [9 favorites]

Daliah Lithwick has an interesting proportion about the Supreme Court
posted by growabrain at 9:18 PM on October 5, 2018 [4 favorites]

" However, there's something deeply personal about this nomination that I think will stick with people. This wasn't a fuck you out of hubris, stupidity, or deeply mistaken philosophy, it was a straight up fuck you to large part of the country. It felt personal, and that has a way of sticking with people."

I know a lot of lawyers on both sides of the aisle in Illinois (including a shit-ton of pro-life Catholic lawyers), and NONE of them think confirming Kavanaugh was a good idea. (The only lawyers I know who were in favor work for conservative think-tanks, and not even all of them.) I was chatting with a GOP attorney the other day who commented that he expected all future oral arguments before the Court to feature women in the audience shouting "RAPIST!" to disrupt the case, and he thought they'd be justified, and that putting Kavanaugh on the court was a fuckin' nightmare for legitimacy and jurisprudence. No lawyer I know thinks people will accept rulings where Kavanaugh is the deciding judge as authoritative, and that's a real problem with real consequences.

Now granted these are Illinois Republicans in the mainstream of the state party, which is not NEARLY as far right as the national party (and which has been kinda left behind by the nutbar wing of the state party's ascendance, but it's notable that there aren't many of the GOP lawyers who have gone with the nutbars). They're much more your 1960s NASA Republicans and much less your 2000s Teahadist Republicans.

But the point is that outside the hothouse of DC, I am not hearing a lot of lawyers who think Kavanaugh will have any legitimacy, and the Supreme Court only works when it has legitimacy in the eyes of the justice system and the populace. And OBVIOUSLY a shit-ton of bad stuff about Kavanaugh is going to come out that further undermines his legitimacy as more people come forward and -- more importantly -- as his document trail is finally aired. That's going to undermine the Court like whoa.

I am incredibly sick at heart, but I do think it'll be a Pyrrhic victory in that what the GOP has achieved is the delegitimization of the Supreme Court and any rulings Kavanaugh is involved in. NOT THAT IT MIGHT NOT SUCK FOR EVERYONE FIRST, but that ultimately history will view it as Pyrrhic -- it's going to be a Taney Court, and the senators who made it happen are going down in history as Jefferson Davises.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 9:20 PM on October 5, 2018 [72 favorites]

NOT THAT IT MIGHT NOT SUCK FOR EVERYONE FIRST, but that ultimately history will view it as Pyrrhic -- it's going to be a Taney Court, and the senators who made it happen are going down in history as Jefferson Davises.

Yeah, in general I think it would behoove the left to start understanding this as a much longer game. Not that we shouldn't play any advantage in the short term, but this is not [only] a fight about tomorrow or midterms or even next year. We need to be able to view this in historical time, with a strategy to match.
posted by Miko at 9:24 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

Ex-Manchin Staffer Calls His Support For Brett Kavanaugh ‘Pure Weakness’ - Cameron Joseph, TPM
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:39 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

The biggest break will come when we all collectively realize voting is just one instrument in the orchestra of change and a loud enough sound requires all parts.

GENERAL STRIKE!
GENERAL STRIKE!
GENERAL STRIKE!

We're going to need a committee.
posted by mikelieman at 9:42 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

And the goal should be to completely negate judicial review.

Marburg v Madison is illegitimate. The court has no legitimate role in policy, period.

Judges are not elected. They should not decide anything outside of a comma placement.

The Court should be replealed. Neutered. Completely written out of all public life.

Judicial review is not in the constitution.

We should stop accepting the judicial branch’s self appointed role as legitimate, no one ever agreed to it.

And we should stop pretending we did.
posted by T.D. Strange at 9:43 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

Seems a bit baby-with-the-bathwater.
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 9:53 PM on October 5, 2018 [16 favorites]

Question: why shouldn’t the Democrats run “against rapists”?
posted by growabrain at 9:55 PM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

198 methods of nonviolent action.

As a start, of note

‘Haunting’ and economic noncoperatiion
posted by The Whelk at 10:00 PM on October 5, 2018 [21 favorites]

Question: why shouldn’t the Democrats run “against rapists”?

I know it's childish and more on their level, but "RAPEublican" rolls right off the tongue. If they're going to keep saying "Democrat party," let's start saying that.
posted by mmoncur at 10:10 PM on October 5, 2018 [6 favorites]

The Republicanic Party.

I think this also sinks any notion of impeaching Trump with senate votes. If you can't get 50/50 on this level of egregious bullshit, 2/3rds is pure fantasy.
posted by adept256 at 10:13 PM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

Impeachment was never a real deal, not with this makeup, not with these party leaders. We need to build our own bases, in our workplaces, in our schools, in our communities, so they’re more resilent. I said two years ago we should work with the assumption that the federal goverment is going to cease to exist with a few extremly punitive exceptions. The time is now to rebuild the local goverment you want to see in the world.

Work on that power differential.
posted by The Whelk at 10:20 PM on October 5, 2018 [14 favorites]

We need to build our own basses

Raise the pike of revolution from your perches or the future will be crappie
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:22 PM on October 5, 2018 [48 favorites]

I just cut turf for my neighborhood action team to knock 6,000 doors. Kickoff is tomorrow. We have a storefront office open 12 hours a day for phonebanking.

We are coming for you, Scotty. I want my state back.
posted by rockindata at 10:26 PM on October 5, 2018 [54 favorites]

Some things that make me feel better when the soul necrosis begins. One, to read a sober analysis from a law-talkin' dude like Orin Kerr.

The other thing is to do something stupid, like post a quote from an 80s movie. I did this during election night whilst gazing dumbly into the void. I apologize in advance, but I think it's time.

I just want to wish you all good luck. We're all counting on you.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 10:26 PM on October 5, 2018 [2 favorites]

I don’t throw around the R word lightly and I always believed in the Debsian model of a “legal and peaceful revolution” but what is to be done when our supposed elected officials willfully and repeatedly ignore the express will of the people? The broader question is, how do we make sure our representatives in what is kind of werid pantomime version of democracy, are actually held accountable?

When, exactly, are there consequences?
posted by The Whelk at 10:27 PM on October 5, 2018 [32 favorites]

Seems a bit baby-with-the-bathwater.

Give it a few years of rule by unelected judicial junta even if Democrats regain elected majority and get back to me.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:29 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

The Supreme Court (and the Senate, and to a greater and more indefensible degree, the Electoral College) are fundamentally undemocratic institutions and could use a lot of healthy, vigorous reform to be brought in line to more modern ideas of how democracy works.
posted by The Whelk at 10:32 PM on October 5, 2018 [20 favorites]

Marbury vs Madison was basically just a bunch of judges declaring a soft coup where they suddenly decided they were allowed to veto any democratically passed law they like. Most democracies get along perfectly fine without such an insulated, omnipotent, undemocratic court, and we certainly could too. Basically, in the evolution of modern democracies, the US is frozen at about where the UK and other early modern democracies were in 1700 or so. The last millennium of democratic evolution has basically been a battle between the popular chamber and all the other branches of the government, with the popular chamber gradually taking over all the other powers, sometimes via open warfare. We still see these fights going on in some countries (eg in south america), but it's basically something the US has skipped out on, even in the midst of its two major post-revolution revolutions (civil war and new deal). And the solution will look like something from a south american or colored revolution: it will only happen when the left owns a large and long-term majority in the House which is busily passing major laws (eg, universal health care) which are repeatedly vetoed by the Senate, Supreme Court, or President. At which point the House will have to go to war with these other branches, eg declaring the Supreme Court's decisions void and ignoring them, and defunding and publicly and legally attacking the Senate, Court, and Presidency. It sounds extreme, but that's basically the way every democratic evolution has worked. The end-state is an all-powerful lower chamber (the House), which is almost always an improvement on presidential and court systems that were largely modeled on feudal oligarchies. But it's got to start with a dominant majority in the House and a president who is fundamentally subservient to that popular coalition. Popular coups like the colored revolutions aside, that's really the only historically plausible path to making this country into a real democracy.
posted by chortly at 10:40 PM on October 5, 2018 [38 favorites]

Rachel Maddow had en interesting segment about 1992
posted by growabrain at 10:41 PM on October 5, 2018 [8 favorites]

that's really the only historically plausible path to making this country into a real democracy.
posted by chortly at 1:40 AM on October 6

And if that happens in the presence of sophisticated modern AI-assisted gerrymandering, it’ll be the first and only example.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:49 PM on October 5, 2018

"AI" is a bugaboo. Democracy has overcome new technologies enlisted to maintain power in the past, and it can do it again. All it would take is a committed popular movement and a House majority willing to pass radical laws and attack and delegitimize the other branches. Gerrymandering is a good tool for propping up incumbents and a decent tool for boosting Republican margins, but it won't stop Democrats from winning the House, and it wouldn't stop the House from doing all the radical things lower chambers have traditionally done to wrest power from the other branches.
posted by chortly at 11:23 PM on October 5, 2018 [3 favorites]

As Jane McAlvey says in No Shortcuts: the stuff that worked then works now. The sit down strike was created in un-unionized autoplants in the 20s when they had so much free and ready labor the only way to physically stop the factory from working. There’s uh ..no shortcut to building power.
posted by The Whelk at 11:48 PM on October 5, 2018 [11 favorites]

I was finally able to get on to the Susan Collins CrowdPac site. It’s up to 2.8 million!
posted by Weeping_angel at 2:36 AM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Interview with Rebecca Traister about her book Good and Mad: The Revolutionary Power of Women’s Anger last Tuesday on Chris Hayes's Why Is This Happening podcast (transcript at previous link, direct .mp3 link here) which I feel moved to cross post about here as well as in homonculus's open FPP about that and related books, because it's a really fabulous interview. (Sounds like the two of them are friends, maybe?)

...this is actually what was always on the table in the 2016 election, was the Court. But I agree with you and part of the story of this book is that by making this attempt to control the mechanism so visible and so clear what has happened is that the anger of a mass number of people who sort of been somnambulant, some of whom have been somnambulant up until now, they have been awakened to a kind of fevered fury that is not just, just for anybody who doubts that it's not just frothing and talking, it is organizing. It is running for office. It is protesting. It is fundraising. It's founding organizations that are gonna try to ameliorate the damage done to voting rights.

[...]

We are now looking at a fight that is gonna last through the end of our lives. It is gonna take up the lives of our children. There's a way in which that can be daunting. And it should be. But I also hope that for people who are angry and wondering what to do with their anger, that they understand that, that's gonna help power them through these years. And that they're part of a fight with very deep and important and crucial and righteous and patriotic roots and that the fact that we're looking at lifetimes spent in that fight is actually, it's good that we know this now.

(On preview, the interview was mentioned by suelac above too sans link)
posted by XMLicious at 3:27 AM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

Yeah, let's not let the loss of a seat on the Court turn us into people looking to set the clock back to pre-1803 times. The Supreme Court is a useful and viable institution. And yes, it overturns democratically enacted laws, that's its entire purpose: to determine if a law as written conflicts with the Constitution. There literally no point in having Constitutionally guaranteed rights if there's no agency to enforce those rights.
posted by sotonohito at 5:00 AM on October 6, 2018 [14 favorites]

On that anti-Collins fundraiser: is there a mechanism in place that would prevent a far-right candidate from running in the Democratic primary in Maine, and if they won, claiming that money for their campaign?
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 5:06 AM on October 6, 2018

DevilsAdvicate - yeah, that mechanism is the Maine Democratic Party and Maine voters and the Primary system.

I know you all think of us as a red state, but we really are not. Collins has had to pretend to be a moderate all these years because she could not win without votes from the extremely liberal southern half of the state.

Truthfully, part of the problem with the Maine Dems is that they consistently run folks who are in the cutting edge of progressivism, who get painted as “too extreme” by the right.

BTW, while you guys are throwing money at us, please give to support Jared Golden, who is trying to unseat the terrible R Bruce Poliquin in Maine CD 2. He needs your money now.
posted by anastasiav at 5:18 AM on October 6, 2018 [14 favorites]

I know you all think of us as a red state, but we really are not. Collins has had to pretend to be a moderate all these years because she could not win without votes from the extremely liberal southern half of the state.

Truthfully, part of the problem with the Maine Dems is that they consistently run folks who are in the cutting edge of progressivism, who get painted as “too extreme” by the right.

Meanwhile, the Maine GOP seems to have no trouble reelecting far-right white supremacist Paul LePage, so maybe the issue isn't the perception of extremism?
posted by Pope Guilty at 5:25 AM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

yeah, that mechanism is the Maine Democratic Party and Maine voters and the Primary system.

Assuming the 2020 rules are similar to 2018's, Maine Republicans would have until late May 2020 to change their official party affiliation to Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary.

I don't know what the rules are in Maine for qualification for the primary. Could the Maine Democratic leadership prevent such a person from getting on the ballot at all, or is it the sort of thing where if they get enough signatures they're on the ballot, like it or not?
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 5:29 AM on October 6, 2018

the people most ready to burn the motherfucker down, are there, right now.

A lot of us actually, you know, live here. It kinda feels like the party in power is doing the actual burning down of things, which is almost certainly going to involve wresting even more power away from the District.

At least that sniveling carbuncle Chaffetz is out of the picture for the moment.
posted by aspersioncast at 5:31 AM on October 6, 2018 [12 favorites]

Lithwick: If and when Kavanaugh is sworn onto the court, the other eight justices will spend the better part of their lives trying to find institutional cover for the damage they have sustained this month.

Pretty sure Thomas will welcome him with open arms. Also pretty sure that RBG would not stand for coughing up anything.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 5:44 AM on October 6, 2018 [5 favorites]

I do think it'll be a Pyrrhic victory in that what the GOP has achieved is the delegitimization of the Supreme Court

But it’s a full-blow victory for Putin.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 5:55 AM on October 6, 2018 [9 favorites]

Meanwhile, the Maine GOP seems to have no trouble reelecting far-right white supremacist Paul LePage, so maybe the issue isn't the perception of extremism?

*sigh*

So. LePage was originally elected because there was a Dem candidate and an Indipendent candidate who split the majority of the vote. Cutler (The I) ran because he thought Libby Mitchell was too progressive. (She was also a deeply entrenched establishment candidate, having served in both the house and senate and probably won the nom more on the strength of her party connections than any real enthusiasm about her. She’s not very charasmatic and ran a terrible campaign.) LePage won with 42% of the vote. Cutler was second and Mitchell 3rd.

LePage’s re-election suffered from the same dynamic. By the second go round he had the more establishment R’s firmly behind him, Cutler ran again, but the Dem candidate was long time beloved CD2 congressman Mike Michaud. There was a lot of anger about Cutler being in the race (given what had happened the first time), and Angus King even pulled his endorsement of Cutler and gave it to Michaud mid race. In the end, LePage won with 48%, Michaud came second, and Cutler ended up with the crucial final 8%.

The problem in Maine is not strong support on the right. The problem is that the left can’t get its act together and we end up splitting the vote.
posted by anastasiav at 5:58 AM on October 6, 2018 [24 favorites]

Samantha Power, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, denounced the new policy on Twitter as “needlessly cruel & bigoted.”

“State Dept. will no longer let same-sex domestic partners of UN employees get visas unless they are married,” she tweeted, noting that “only 12% of UN member states allow same-sex marriage.”

Will this also be applied to hetero common law marriages or is this specifically just same-sex discrimination?
posted by srboisvert at 6:01 AM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Judicial review is not in the constitution. We should stop accepting the judicial branch’s self appointed role as legitimate, no one ever agreed to it.

I know Marbury gets presented as breathtaking and unexpected, but that's just to make it more dramatic to kids in primary and secondary ed. Everyone knew and understood that the courts would be striking down laws they viewed as violating the constitution. In Federalist... 78, I think... there's a discussion of judicial review. While the Federalist isn't a core dump of the framers' brains, the fact that it treats it matter of factly and as the most obvious thing ever does indicate that this wasn't some weird thing Marshall just made up; Marbury was just the first time they were actually doing so.

The Supreme Court is astonishingly weak, and Roberts at least seems to know this. Even beyond court-packing. Anytime it wants to, Congress can pass a law like this:

All appellate jurisdiction held by the Supreme Court is transferred to Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, which is renamed the Court of Final Appeals.

And instantly the Supreme Court becomes a body that decides cases where one state sues another, cases involving foreign ambassadors, and the other obscure and whogivesashit elements of the court's original jurisdiction.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:10 AM on October 6, 2018 [33 favorites]

anastasiav: The problem in Maine is not strong support on the right. The problem is that the left can’t get its act together and we end up splitting the vote.

If I'm not mistaken, that's also why the voting system itself was changed, yes?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 6:12 AM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

And instantly the Supreme Court becomes a body that decides cases where one state sues another, cases involving foreign ambassadors, and the other obscure and whogivesashit elements of the court's original jurisdiction.

Oh wow, really? That actually sounds potentially like a much better response to all of the Republican SCOTUS perfidy than court packing—to create a better legal system with a well-designed higher appeal process, maybe even multiple specialized courts of final appeal.
posted by XMLicious at 6:22 AM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Yes, that’s correct. Much of the enthusiasm for ranked choice voting in Maine is due to frustrations over the gubinatorial disasters.

Ranked Choice is now the law in Maine (over the howls of protest from the GOP), but unfortunatly the courts have ruled that, the way the Maine Constitution is written, we can use it for everything EXCEPT voting for Governor. So, while we get that sorted out (constitutional changes take time), we’re stuck with a 3 way race (actually 4 way) for Governor again. So you should give to Janet Mills (who, weirdly, was my landlord when I was in college), because she’s in a very tight race: https://www.janetmills.com
posted by anastasiav at 6:25 AM on October 6, 2018 [8 favorites]

So, in a perfectly normal turn of events, "Rudy Giuliani just retweeted someone calling Soros the antichrist. For real." [@studentactivism pic of retweet]

The text he retweeted was "Follow the money. I think Soros is the anti-Christ! He must go! Freeze his assets & I bet the protests stop."
posted by Buntix at 6:39 AM on October 6, 2018 [15 favorites]

You know last night I was wondering where Giuliani had gotten away too, and here he is, limbering up for the stretch run.
posted by notyou at 6:55 AM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

Let's make a deal. Freeze Soros's assets and also the assets of the Kochs and the Mercers. We'll see what stops.
posted by Faint of Butt at 6:56 AM on October 6, 2018 [79 favorites]

So, in a perfectly normal turn of events, "Rudy Giuliani just retweeted someone calling Soros the antichrist. For real." [@studentactivism pic of retweet]

The text he retweeted was "Follow the money. I think Soros is the anti-Christ! He must go! Freeze his assets & I bet the protests stop."

I feel like this era will one day be known as the Senaissance.
posted by srboisvert at 7:09 AM on October 6, 2018 [11 favorites]

And instantly the Supreme Court becomes a body that decides cases where one state sues another, cases involving foreign ambassadors, and the other obscure and whogivesashit elements of the court's original jurisdiction.

Is this...a real option? Something that people have been seriously discussing? Because it sounds really good.
posted by triggerfinger at 7:15 AM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

I see we’ve moved from Anger to Bargaining.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 7:19 AM on October 6, 2018 [75 favorites]

I respect the internal logic of "end judicial review" or whatever, but among other things surely that means necessarily giving up on Roe v Wade altogether? And instead protecting abortion rights by, I don't even know what, a constitutional amendment? (Which I do think would be a good idea in itself as additional protection, if it were possible.) And even then, how do you deal with a state that passes the Banning Abortion In All But Name Act, if not ultimately by a higher court overturning that law?
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:23 AM on October 6, 2018 [5 favorites]

"Follow the money. I think Soros is the anti-Christ! He must go! Freeze his assets & I bet the protests stop."

The strangest and scariest development that greatly contributed to Kavanaugh getting the vote is people's inability to identify what's true. I've heard a couple of stories of former democrats who started listening to Fox News and then started believing the moon is made of green cheese.

Kavanaugh's lies were so transparent they don't really qualify as lies. I don't know what to call them except absurd statements he knows will be backed up by his party's propaganda machinery. But it's just bizarre to see them swallowed regardless.

The belief, for instance, that global warming is a sham is right up there with believing the earth is flat. That so many people swallow it means that the institutional processes that create truths we can share have fallen. How do we get those back?

And it makes everything more galling. It's like sharing a house with someone who smirkingly claims they must smoke it in it because of some made up medical condition backed by a quack doctor. You just want to scream.

And the righteous indignation, so out of character in a Supreme Court nominee, is a regular part of the program. "You don't believe the earth is made of green cheese?!? You want to tear apart everything I am and love!" How do you win over that?
posted by xammerboy at 7:33 AM on October 6, 2018 [35 favorites]

Check this shit out. Is Trump a good President? A bad President? Who's to say? Some people say one thing, others say something else. Well, "The voters will choose."
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:53 AM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

Is this...a real option?

Yes/probably.

Something that people have been seriously discussing?

Nope. It's very much a nuke the site from orbit idea and if it happened my usual response would be to locate the nearest crossing to Canada.

The larger point is just that the Court really does depend on popular legitimacy to have any power, and at least most of the justices understand this. It will be interesting, in a dark way, to see how willing Roberts and other not-crazy conservative justices are to allow decisions where Kavanaugh is decisive, versus Roberts especially either weakening the opinion to attract a sixth justice or nominally switching to the liberal side and writing the most conservative possible opinion consistent with his reverse/affirm vote. Especially if it's a decision that would require a Democratic actor to do something.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:02 AM on October 6, 2018 [8 favorites]

Ratchet. Clunk. $3,000,000 for Collins' opponent.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:12 AM on October 6, 2018 [16 favorites]

I've mentioned this a couple times before but I'm going to again because I suspect that people who were adjacent to a conservative milieu in the 80s and 90s are kind of thin on the ground on mefi:

Soros used to be considered one of the good guys by conservatives. The goals of the Open Society Foundation in formerly communist states in Eastern Europe (promote democracy and civil society) were aligned with the anti-communist pro-Western Reaganites. Soros is a name I've been familiar with since I was a kid because he was kind of an American intellectual conservative's wet dream. A holocaust refugee who got rich in finance and spent his money trying to end communism and promoting democracy and western ideals.

Then I didn't hear his name for a few years, mainly because I stopped paying attention to conservative politics, and then all of a sudden it pops up again and he's the acknowledged anti-christ for half the American population. Anti-Semitism really is a hell of a drug.
posted by soren_lorensen at 8:26 AM on October 6, 2018 [65 favorites]

Does that anti-Collins money go to the Democratic challenger if she retires?
posted by T.D. Strange at 8:31 AM on October 6, 2018 [3 favorites]

Soros used to be considered one of the good guys by conservatives. The goals of the Open Society Foundation in formerly communist states in Eastern Europe (promote democracy and civil society) were aligned with the anti-communist pro-Western Reaganites. Soros is a name I've been familiar with since I was a kid because he was kind of an American intellectual conservative's wet dream. A holocaust refugee who got rich in finance and spent his money trying to end communism and promoting democracy and western ideals.

Then I didn't hear his name for a few years, mainly because I stopped paying attention to conservative politics, and then all of a sudden it pops up again and he's the acknowledged anti-christ for half the American population. Anti-Semitism really is a hell of a drug.

What put Soros on the right's radar as an enemy was his publicly putting up a huge pile of money to defeat George W. Bush in 2004. Of course most of the people who publicly put up money to beat Dubya didn't stick around as demons haunting the right's imagination; no, only the Jewish man.
posted by Pope Guilty at 8:53 AM on October 6, 2018 [26 favorites]

Mod note: Couple comments deleted. Let's take a step back from the very general proto-civil war predictions, is this the end of America, etc., and keep the focus on nearer term, specific concrete actual events/updates etc.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:53 AM on October 6, 2018 [8 favorites]

What put Soros on the right's radar as an enemy was his publicly putting up a huge pile of money to defeat George W. Bush in 2004. Of course most of the people who publicly put up money to beat Dubya didn't stick around as demons haunting the right's imagination; no, only the Jewish man.

Talking chicken mcnugget and leading Trump social media booster Bill Mitchell at 2:48 this morning:

@mitchellvii
Can you imagine if we threw Soros in prison and seized his assets as an enemy of the United States tomorrow? What would the Democrats do?

There are in fact historical precedents for right wing trolls presenting thought experiments of imprisoning wealthy Jews without trial in order to trigger the libs.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:00 AM on October 6, 2018 [42 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted; let's skip "asshole entertainer whose whole thing is to be an asshole said something assholey that will make you angry/despairing": meh.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:36 AM on October 6, 2018 [11 favorites]

If Dems Lose Again, Obama’s Legacy Is Gone Forever

...The contrast between Obama and Trump—decent vs. despicable; incisive vs. ignorant; honest vs. humbug; classy vs. clownish—is now the critical subtext of the 2018 campaign. With Obama’s current approval ratings more than 20 points higher than Trump’s, the aching memory of his presidency will help energize Democrats in the midterms.

But Obama’s return is also a reminder that some of his admirable qualities—modesty, prudence, deliberateness—have inadvertently helped Republicans endanger everything he built.

If Obama’s reputation is secure, his legacy is not. Many of his accomplishments in office are in danger of being wiped out in November. The personal stakes for him and his place in history are high....
posted by growabrain at 9:45 AM on October 6, 2018 [10 favorites]

Soros used to be considered one of the good guys by conservatives. The goals of the Open Society Foundation in formerly communist states in Eastern Europe (promote democracy and civil society) were aligned with the anti-communist pro-Western Reaganites.

I was so impressed that I went to work for him! Promoting democracy and open society sounds pretty bipartisan to me, and my times in Bishkek were excellent... Oh, and Kyrgyzstan is the only ex-Soviet bit of central Asia that has stayed (vaguely) democratic and I guess I get some tiny bit of credit for that, right?

Thanks, George.
Theorge.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:46 AM on October 6, 2018 [32 favorites]

In what's not a coincidence since Trump went full anti-Semite conspiracy, Defense One's Kevin Baron reports:

BREAKING: Jewish Community Center of Northern Virginia — my JCC where my kids went to preschool — spray painted with 19 swastikas overnight. Police say incident captured on security cameras but culprits still unknown. I’m sickened.
I’m just sickened and heartbroken. Not the first time. This building was tagged with Nazi “SS” lightning bolts recently. But this beats all.
All the “globalist” and “Soros” code wording matters. All the alt right infowar snake oil selling matters. All the permissiveness matters.

Anti-semitic vandalism targeted this JCC last year as well. They're located in the city of Fairfax, an affluent but conservative suburban community, just on the border of the D.C. beltway.
posted by Doktor Zed at 9:54 AM on October 6, 2018 [31 favorites]

Is this...a real option?

Yes/probably.

I don't think it's that simple. The Constitution grants the Supreme Court the original jurisdiction described, but also says:

"In all the other Cases before mentioned, the supreme Court shall have appellate Jurisdiction, both as to Law and Fact, with such Exceptions, and under such Regulations as the Congress shall make."

Those "other cases" are:
"all Cases, in Law and Equity, arising under this Constitution, the Laws of the United States, and Treaties made, or which shall be made, under their Authority;-to all Cases affecting Ambassadors, other public ministers and Consuls;-to all Cases of admiralty and maritime Jurisdiction;-to Controversies to which the United States shall be a Party;-to Controversies between two or more States;-between a State and Citizens of another State;-between Citizens of different States;-between Citizens of the same State claiming Lands under Grants of different States, and between a State, or the Citizens thereof, and foreign States, Citizens or Subjects.

It's questionable whether the ability to make "Exceptions, and....Regulations" would support Congress completely stripping the Supreme Court of its role as the court of final appeal, at least with regard to the kinds of cases specifically enumerated.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:55 AM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

The police are currently lined up in a single file line to take away protesters from the capitol steps one by one.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:09 AM on October 6, 2018 [3 favorites]

What happens to the Collins-opponent money if Collins doesn't run?
posted by gurple at 10:22 AM on October 6, 2018

The ActBlue campaign goes to whatever Democratic candidate ultimately runs in the general. My read of the CrowdPAC page says that it does the same thing unless Collins votes no.
posted by zrail at 10:25 AM on October 6, 2018

Question:
Where could I get simple SMALL signs* that simply say VOTE Nov. 6 (perhaps also in Spanish/ Arabic) to put up around our complex? I'll hand-write the reminder our polling place is at the elementary school. (What I'd like to add: IT'S THE SCHOOL ACROSS THE STREET, SO GET OFF YOUR ASSES AND GO!) Horrid management would probably pull them quickly, but as long as they're up for a day.

(*Don't want to print out - I want some of those professional Soros-devil signs Dear Leader speaks of.)

Also, whoever above referred to the Rape-ublican party -- that is now what I will refer to them as. Rape-ublicans: We put brown babies in concentration camps, sexual assaulters on the Supreme Court.
posted by NorthernLite at 10:28 AM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

Question: why shouldn’t the Democrats run “against rapists”?

I know it's childish and more on their level, but "RAPEublican" rolls right off the tongue. If they're going to keep saying "Democrat party," let's start saying that.

You can't spell GROPE without G.O.P.
posted by zakur at 10:29 AM on October 6, 2018 [21 favorites]

Get
Rid of
Racists
Rapists and
Republicans
VOTE. THEM. OUT!
posted by ishmael at 10:38 AM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

Honestly, the most depressing thing is the tour groups of school children decked out in MAGA gear.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 10:46 AM on October 6, 2018 [15 favorites]

CNN: George W. Bush made several calls reassuring Collins about Kavanaugh

Counterpoint: funerary ricola
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:08 AM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

Judicial review is not in the constitution. We should stop accepting the judicial branch’s self appointed role as legitimate, no one ever agreed to it.

So, were the following judicial review cases decided correctly, or not? Is it a good thing they were decided, or not? How long do you think it would have taken for Congress and/or all 50 state legislatures to come to the same conclusions on their own?
[selected from USA Today list]

Brown v. Board of Education, 1954 (9-0 decision)
Separating black and white students in public schools is unconstitutional.

Gideon v. Wainwright, 1963 (9-0 decision)
Criminal defendants have a right to an attorney even if they cannot afford one.

New York Times v. Sullivan, 1964 (9-0 decision)
Lawsuits based on libel or defamation must show intent or recklessness.

Miranda v. Arizona, 1966 (5-4 decision)
Prisoners must be advised of their rights before being questioned by police.

Loving v. Virginia, 1967 (9-0 decision)
Invalidated state laws prohibiting interracial marriage.

Roe v. Wade, 1973 (7-2 decision)
Women have a constitutional right to an abortion during the first two trimesters.

United States v. Nixon, 1974 (8-0 decision)
President cannot use executive privilege to withhold evidence from criminal trial.

Lawrence v. Texas, 2003 (6-3 decision)
Struck down state laws that prohibited sodomy between consenting adults.

National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius, 2012 (5-4 decision)
Upheld the mandate that most Americans have health insurance.

United States v. Windsor, 2013 (5-4 decision)
Federal government must provide benefits to legally married same-sex couples.

Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015 (5-4 decision)
Same-sex marriage is legalized across all 50 states.

These are things we did not have before the Supreme Court cases that decided them. The legislative authorities actively passed and maintained laws denying people of these rights, and were only compelled to stop enforcing them because of the Supreme Court's powers of judicial review. Reform proposals should modify or improve the Court, not destroy it.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 11:15 AM on October 6, 2018 [67 favorites]

To be fair the Republicans put sexual assaulters in the presidency and as Speaker of the house, so the Supreme Court is a sort of trifecta.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:16 AM on October 6, 2018 [3 favorites]

Why are they taking away protestors? Freedom of assembly on public grounds isn’t it?

That ship sailed a long time ago; protests of over 20 people on US Capitol Grounds require a permit (pdf) and protests are prohibited (pdf) on all areas directly surrounding buildings including stairs and walkways.
posted by peeedro at 11:18 AM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

protests of over 20 people on US Capitol Grounds require a permit (pdf)

And of course if more than 20 people just gather on their own, they will be simultaneously held accountable for not meeting up and working together ahead of time to get a permit while at the same time being characterized as organized, paid shills.
posted by Pope Guilty at 11:31 AM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

Susan Collins’s Brett Kavanaugh Speech Was the Final Nail in the Coffin for Her Political Identity

Collins's speech is going to go down as a landmark in the annals of congressional smarm. It was too long. It was badly delivered. It made little or no coherent sense. Beyond the aesthetic, it was a suicide note delivered on behalf of her entire political identity.

This was perhaps my favorite passage—and by "favorite," I mean, "completely detached from any possible empirical reality on any plane of existence in this particular universe."

My fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court so that we have far fewer 5-4 decisions.

My fervent hope is that I will awaken tomorrow with six pounds of gold in each of my shoes, but I'm not counting on leprechauns.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:32 AM on October 6, 2018 [43 favorites]

There's a lot of evidence coming out that GWB worked tirelessly to get Brett Kavanaugh in, behind the scenes of course because our president must be led to believe everything was his own idea. Ashley Estes Kavanaugh goes way back with the Bushes, it seems like she went right from college to working for Bush as governor.
And of course Brett and George were both Yale DKE fraternity brothers.
Bros before...
posted by readery at 11:40 AM on October 6, 2018 [22 favorites]

Senators representing less than half the U.S. are about to confirm a nominee opposed by most Americans

Kavanaugh, though, has a distinct honor: He will be the first justice nominated by someone who lost the popular vote to earn his seat on the bench with support from senators representing less than half of the country while having his nomination opposed by a majority of the country.

posted by kirkaracha at 12:05 PM on October 6, 2018 [66 favorites]

WaPo, D.C. Circuit sent complaints about Kavanaugh’s testimony to Chief Justice Roberts

Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. has received more than a dozen judicial misconduct complaints against Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh in recent weeks but has chosen for the time being not to refer them to a judicial panel for investigation.

A judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit — the court on which Kavanaugh serves — sent a string of complaints to Roberts starting three weeks ago, according to four people familiar with the matter.

That judge, Karen LeCraft Henderson, had dismissed other complaints against Kavanaugh as frivolous, but she concluded that some were substantive enough that they should not be handled by Kavanaugh’s fellow judges in the D.C. Circuit.

In a statement Saturday, Henderson acknowledged the complaints and said they centered on statements Kavanaugh made during his Senate confirmation hearings.
...
People familiar with the matter say the allegations made in the complaints — that Kavanaugh was dishonest and lacked judicial temperament in his Senate testimony — had already been widely discussed in the Senate and in the public realm. Roberts did not see an urgent need for them to be resolved by the judicial branch while he continued to review the incoming complaints, they said.

The situation is highly unusual, legal experts and several people familiar with the matter said. Never before has a Supreme Court nominee been poised to join the court while a fellow judge recommends that a series of misconduct claims against that nominee warrant review. Roberts’s decision not to immediately refer the cases to another appeals court has caused some concern in the legal community. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, legal experts say, the details of the misconduct complaints against him may not become public and instead will be dismissed. Supreme Court justices are not subject to the misconduct rules governing these claims.

I would have assumed that all such complaints regarding his temperament and testimony would have been dismissed outright, as that's a matter for the Senate, but here's a Reagan and H.W. Bush-appointed judge passing them to Roberts, who is sitting on them. What?
posted by zachlipton at 12:24 PM on October 6, 2018 [19 favorites]

Senate Republicans Set Kavanaugh FBI Probe Scope, McConnell Says

The flagrancy is the point. This is an intentionally totalitarian demonstration.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:24 PM on October 6, 2018 [17 favorites]

Democrats say Avenatti undercut their case against Kavanaugh

Senate Democrats believed they had Brett Kavanaugh on the ropes. Christine Blasey Ford had just revealed her identity and was prepared to testify in public, detailing her allegations that Kavanaugh had tried to sexual assault her more than three decades ago. On top of that, a New Yorker article had just revealed that a second woman, Deborah Ramirez, was accusing Kavanaugh of exposing his genitals to her while they were college students. Then came Michael Avenatti.

With Dems like these.
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:29 PM on October 6, 2018 [5 favorites]

From kirkaracha's Esquire link:

The only people who acquitted themselves well in this prairie dog town were Heidi Heitkamp and Lisa Murkowski, who looked at the same evidence King did and came to the same conclusion—that even if you ignore the what Dr. Christine Blasey Ford came forward to tell the Senate, this is a guy who by temperament alone doesn't deserve the promotion he now apparently will get, and that even if you ignore the privilege-fueled tantrum he directed at the Senate Judiciary Committee, this is a guy whose judicial philosophy was not nurtured in academia or in the actual practice of the law, but in the rage-furnaces of modern conservative Mordor, and that these, taken in tandem, make him somebody who shouldn't be allowed within five blocks of the Supreme Court.

While the hive mind of MeFi has been generally supportive of Murkowski on tough votes, are we giving her a pass this time? She said publicly she was going to vote no, but now that the confirmation is all but assured, she will merely vote "present" to honor Senate decorum?

My read is, her words do not match her actions. She says I am a no vote, which inclines a huge group of voters to like her, and then says I won't vote so it's never on the record whether she endorsed Kavanaugh.

Am I missing something? Is there a reason we should still respect her?

(I am sending Heitkamp a personal e-mail for voting no despite the political downfall. It looks like she is going to lose anyway, but her words on why she voted no should be treasured and I will back her in any way I can in the future.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 12:31 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

WSJ, Among the Thousands of FBI Tips, a Statement From an Aggrieved Truck Owner

One document likely in the stack would be a notarized statement submitted to the FBI Tuesday by a truck owner, who allegedly confronted an inebriated college student who was “smashing the black cargo box” in the bed of his parked Ford Courier on a New Haven, Conn., street in the fall of 1986.

“I yelled again at the person, and realized it was Brett Kavanaugh,” reads the statement, which goes on to allege that the future Supreme Court nominee, “uncontrollably, incoherently drunk,” later refused to pay for the damage when confronted over the incident at meeting of Truth and Courage, the secret society both Yale undergraduates belonged to. Judge Kavanaugh, through his attorney, denies the incident took place.

The former truck owner, whose redacted statement was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, says that Truth and Courage members met twice weekly through senior year to hang out and drink. When “heavily drunk,” Mr. Kavanaugh, could turn “belligerent, offensive and even possibly criminal,” the statement says. The judge has denied such allegations about his alcohol habits in testimony before the Senate.

Another student, who is named, said he was told of the incident from the truck's owner at the time.

Schumer is speaking now, and the vote should be soon.
posted by zachlipton at 12:34 PM on October 6, 2018 [22 favorites]

If Manchin votes no and Murkowski votes no, Kavanaugh goes down 49-50 with Daines absent.

If Manchin votes no and Murkowski votes present (49-49), then Mike Pence breaks the tie and Kavanaugh is confirmed.

If Manchin votes yes and Murkowski votes present (50-48) with Daines absent, Kavanaugh is confirmed. This is the pre-announced scenario.

If Manchin votes yes, Daines votes yes and Murkowski votes no (52-48), Kavanaugh is confirmed.

No matter what Manchin does, as long as Murkowski doesn't vote no (either present or yes), Kavanaugh is confirmed.
posted by JackFlash at 12:37 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

With Dems like these.

But... they're saying the same thing I kept saying. They're not necessarily wrong about Avenatti. Perhaps he did the right thing as a lawyer representing his client to the best of his abilities but that doesn't mean he was helpful to the cause of stopping Kavanaugh.
posted by Justinian at 12:50 PM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

Machin votes yes as the voices of women protesting are literally silenced by the calls for the sergeant at arms to ‘restore order.’

I am very much not proud to be an American today.
posted by Drumhellz at 12:53 PM on October 6, 2018 [21 favorites]

Barring a last minute change of vote, it's over at 50-48-1.

Flake literally runs out of the building with Lee, says he has to catch a flight.

@ZerlinaMaxwell: If as to make sure we get the message these women’s screams [protesters] are muffled as they get taken out and the men just keep going.
posted by zachlipton at 12:55 PM on October 6, 2018 [9 favorites]

What a dark, dark day. So disappointing and terrifying. I can't imagine Roe will last for more than another twelve months.
posted by stillmoving at 1:05 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

I was pregnant on 9/11 and kept thinking “What kind of world is my daughter going to be born into?” I feel the same dread for her today.
posted by Ruki at 1:11 PM on October 6, 2018 [30 favorites]

What a dark, dark day. So disappointing and terrifying. I can't imagine Roe will last for more than another twelve months.
Neither will Obergefell. Nor any part of the Voting Rights Act. And I have a feeling Griswold's days are numbered, too.
posted by SisterHavana at 1:12 PM on October 6, 2018 [9 favorites]

I just posted this on Twitter:
Remember. Remember how angry and betrayed you feel in this shameful moment.
Then go out and vote like your life depends on it.
BECAUSE IT DOES.
posted by SisterHavana at 1:14 PM on October 6, 2018 [24 favorites]

On the upside, Sotomayor is going to read this dude for filth any time he opens his mouth during deliberations.
posted by PenDevil at 1:15 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Mod note: Couple deleted. For discussion of emotions -- which to be clear are totally legit responses to this news -- and voicing fearful predictions, the venting thread is always open.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 1:20 PM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

[Twitter] video of Bronx MC @Mysonne at the DC protests (twitter says they arrested him shortly after):

"We've traumatized some women in ways that we might not have acknowledged because it was normalized. At some point a woman said No and you tried to pressure her because this was normal activity for us as men, we were supposed to 'score.' . . . You listen to the stories of these women and realize that they've been damaged as a result of things that we took as normalized. . . . I might not have raped a woman but I've done something that may have traumatized her. . . . Take accountability for our own faults. . . . If you can't come to terms with the fact that you may have harmed a woman indirectly not on purpose, and be honest as a man, then you're not fit."

More like this please. (Odds are -- crossing my fingers -- guys who own their shit like this are also capable of restraining themselves from talking over women or secretly harassing them, as well as appropriately wielding their male-privilege voices to talk to guys who only listen to other guys.)
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 1:24 PM on October 6, 2018 [34 favorites]

@pdmcleod: He'll of a quote just now from Republican Lindsey Graham: "What blew me away was how vicious it was," he said. "What happened to Kavanaugh was unsustainable. If you don't think our people can't do this, you're not thinking."

What the fuck?

Meanwhile, @npfandos: While White House staff and his own are celebrating in private rooms around the Senate, Mitch McConnell is still on the Senate floor advancing more Trump nominees.
posted by zachlipton at 1:28 PM on October 6, 2018 [14 favorites]

Kavanaugh will be sworn in by Kennedy and Roberts, who is supposed to be reviewing the misconduct complaints against Kavanaugh related to his testimony, in a private ceremony tonight, with a formal public ceremony to follow later. According to the Post article, this will apparently disappear the complaints, as the Supreme Court is not subject to the misconduct rules for judges.
posted by zachlipton at 1:33 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

Does Brett Kavanaugh Have a Race Issue? - Felice León, The Root

tl;dr - Yes. (not surprising but disappointing anyway)
posted by ZeusHumms at 1:34 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

AP: Minnesota TV reporter fired for wearing Trump hat at rally. Specifically, the Trump rally in Rochester MN this week that he was covering.
posted by ZeusHumms at 1:47 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Does Brett Kavanaugh Have a Race Issue? - Felice León, The Root

tl;dr - Yes. (not surprising but disappointing anyway)

Also, another point that passed below the general shitshow radar was the testimony of the gay guy who shared a dorm section with Kavanaugh and had a dead pigeon (? - from memory) nailed to his door, as well as being generally shunned.

Kavanaugh is pretty much the vat-grown perfect Republican. All the bigotries.

Also, whoever above referred to the Rape-ublican party -- that is now what I will refer to them as. Rape-ublicans: We put brown babies in concentration camps, sexual assaulters on the Supreme Court.

@MollyRingwald: It's no longer the Republican Party to me. It's the Rape Party. [yes, the actual Molly Ringwald]
posted by Buntix at 2:00 PM on October 6, 2018 [35 favorites]

Siphoned off the "he's confirmed" article in The Guardian:
"Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, said many across the political spectrum describe Kavanaugh as “a superstar and a legendary scholar” and described him as being of “excellent” temperament and judicial philosophy."

The problem with all this crap is that not only truth isn't what it used to be, but definitions aren't either.
Define "scholar" (and what they do for a living)
Define "excellent" (as something more than "sticking out somehow")
Etc.

Oh but maybe the combinations of these terms make sense after all:
Isn't "excellent temperament" an euphemism for 'prone to prime-time tantrums'?
Is "legendary" not exactly the thing Ford was trying to convey to the world? Somebody you don't forget so soon?
And is the "judicial philosophy" not exactly what we saw, selective truth-bending in order to survive?
posted by Namlit at 2:07 PM on October 6, 2018

It's the Repatriarchy. Diminishing sexual assault to zero importance is but one of many tools of theirs to "help" women understand their caste.
posted by delfin at 2:08 PM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

I just wrote and erased a whole lot of text, because really the only important part of my screed was this.

"Don't waste any time mourning. Organize!"
posted by mikelieman at 2:12 PM on October 6, 2018 [28 favorites]

A Blue Wave is Not Enough: Progressives Need to Win the Long War for Democracy - Jim Miller, San Diego Free Press

To really understand the big picture ... you need to understand the entire history of the Right’s long war to, as historian Nancy MacLean puts it “save capitalism from democracy permanently.”

Their idea is to incrementally crabwalk the public toward a radical revolution in American social and political affairs, a kind of libertarian Social Darwinist utopia where the government has been shrunk down to the size it can be drowned in a bathtub á la Grover Norquist.

In such a brave new world, the rights of the economic elite would be protected from the “collective gangsterism” of labor, civil rights activists, environmentalists, and all others who might seek to redistribute wealth through taxation or impose on the prerogatives of the privileged with onerous regulations or legal restrictions of any kind.

Hence progressives need to be wary of focusing on the immediate battle (“boy did Trump have a bad week!” and “our poll numbers look great for the midterms!”) to the exclusion of developing a strategy for winning the long war ideologically, politically, and economically. Sometimes, even when we are winning the superficial battles, we might still be losing when it comes to the ultimate end game. In sum, progressives need to begin thinking about the deeper problem of how to dramatically shift the terrain of American politics back in their favor.
...
Interestingly, the very next day, Thomas Edsall penned a fantastic editorial in the New York Times about the same issue I had focused on during my visit to La Mesa. In “Trump and the Koch Brothers are Working in Concert”, Edsall points out that despite their real dislike of one another and disagreements on trade and immigration, the President and the Lords of Dark Money are functioning like a well-oiled machine when it comes to fighting the long war. Thus, while Trump might Tweet bad stuff about them, the Kochtopus is getting fed like a king.

posted by ZeusHumms at 2:12 PM on October 6, 2018 [24 favorites]

@alexburnsNYT: Not totally convinced of this but one way to read the last 3 years is as a series of colossal concessions and mortal risks taken by traditional Republicans, in the hope of engineering precisely this moment. One big political Q, to me: does cementing a 5-4 conservative majority also cement Trump’s alliance with traditional R leaders more securely than ever, or does it open the possibility for conflict by removing the most important goal linking them?
posted by zachlipton at 2:14 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

or does it open the possibility for conflict by removing the most important goal linking them?

Lindsey Graham answered this question pretty clearly this week.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 2:16 PM on October 6, 2018 [10 favorites]

Jared Kushner's new BFF Saudi Arabia reportedly murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi in their embassy in Istanbul.
posted by PenDevil at 2:28 PM on October 6, 2018 [19 favorites]

One big political Q, to me: does cementing a 5-4 conservative majority also cement Trump’s alliance with traditional R leaders more securely than ever, or does it open the possibility for conflict by removing the most important goal linking them?

The bargainingest of bargaining stages.
posted by Rust Moranis at 2:39 PM on October 6, 2018 [11 favorites]

My wife was just arrested with about a dozen other women who laid down and linked arms in the street in front of Senator Blunt’s office.
posted by EarBucket at 3:06 PM on October 6, 2018 [140 favorites]

Harry Enten employing the Socratic Method regarding Manchin: Okay, two-pronged question here for Democrats... 1. Do you think someone more liberal than Manchin could win WV? (And I mean like truly more liberal, not like a foot to the left...) 2. Regardless do you think Manchin should be primaried next go around?

me:
1) no
2) until a couple days ago I would have said no. Now I say ask me again in a few weeks after the white hot rage cools off and we'll see.
posted by Justinian at 3:41 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

progressives need to begin thinking about the deeper problem of how to dramatically shift the terrain of American politics

1000 times this.
posted by Miko at 3:49 PM on October 6, 2018 [9 favorites]

A quote from Mitch McConnell, per this tweet from NYT reporter Nicholas Fandos:

“The tactics that were used completely backfired,” McConnell told me. “Harassing members at their homes, crowding the halls with people acting horribly, the effort to humiliate us really helped me unify my conference. So I want to thank these clowns."

Given that Mitch McConnell is the one bona fide strategic thinker among the Trumpublicans, I interpret this comment to mean that these tactics were very effective and disruptive and genuinely disturbing to him and his conference.
posted by johnny jenga at 3:50 PM on October 6, 2018 [59 favorites]

Has Manchin been a useful vote on anything, whether it was blocking something bad from passing, or helping something good pass?

(I genuinely don't know, but if I did, that's what I would use to make my decision, if it was mine to make. Going all or nothing lost some seats, but still worked out pretty well for the Tea Party. Nevertheless, I would rather wait until we are further in the minority, or have a decent majority, before going there.)
posted by bootlegpop at 3:51 PM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

I would rather wait until we are further in the minority

If we get much further in the minority, only insurrection will get us out of it.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 3:55 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

"progressives need to begin thinking about the deeper problem of how to dramatically shift the terrain of American politics

1000 times this"

*gleefully drops a box of radical literature on the table*

Lets start with Rosa Luxembourg's Revolution Or Reformand Angela Davis' Are Prisons Necessary and work from there.
posted by The Whelk at 3:57 PM on October 6, 2018 [14 favorites]

If we get much further in the minority, only insurrection will get us out of it.


Cutting off people who are far from perfect when you've got 48-52 on your side is different than doing so when you've got 0-46 or 54-100.

They got most of them eventually, but the Republicans lost some easy races when the Tea Party started.

It would suck to go all or nothing, and end up with 48 instead of 52.
posted by bootlegpop at 3:58 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

There is no functional difference between 48-52 and 47-53. Both are losing.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 4:00 PM on October 6, 2018 [5 favorites]

It's amazing to me that having men dressing up as Ben Franklin, holding grotesque mannequins of Obama being lynched and groups of people literally dumping tea bags into public waterways were considered a peaceful protest by Republicans in 2010, but anyone else peacefully gathering to show their opinions is "harassing" and "acting horribly" and are "clowns".

Wait, it's not amazing at all. It's par for the course now.
posted by hollygoheavy at 4:01 PM on October 6, 2018 [48 favorites]

Has Manchin been a useful vote on anything, whether it was blocking something bad from passing, or helping something good pass?

Do you mean votes where 1 vote changes the outcome in either direction? Those are pretty rare. But the one that comes to mind is the full Obamacare repeal.
posted by Justinian at 4:03 PM on October 6, 2018 [3 favorites]

There is no functional difference between 48-52 and 47-53. Both are losing.


The 48 and the 52 aren't representing the distribution between the two parties in my statement above. I'm saying that going full bore Tea Party for leftists could be the difference between the Democrats getting 52 seats or 48. There is a big functional difference there.

As a long game, The Tea Party was brilliant. I'm not sure that we can give up the short game for the long game at the present time.
posted by bootlegpop at 4:03 PM on October 6, 2018 [1 favorite]

Has Manchin been a useful vote on anything, whether it was blocking something bad from passing, or helping something good pass?

So here's the thing, and this is the reason that moderate Democrats should never, ever vote for people whom they believe to be moderate Republicans. (I am not convinced that this mythical moderate Republican actually exists, but hypothetically speaking.) It matters massively which party has control of any given legislative chamber. The majority party has a lot of extra power. So a vote for Murkowski is a vote for Chuck Grassley to head the Judiciary Committee, even if Murkowski sometimes breaks ranks with her party. And similarly, Manchin is a turd, but a turdy Democrat is preferable to any Republican, because Democrats desperately need to get back control of the Senate. A decent Democrat would be massively preferable to Manchin, but Manchin is better than even a Republican whose politics were less turdy than his.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:05 PM on October 6, 2018 [33 favorites]

@MollyRingwald: It's no longer the Republican Party to me. It's the Rape Party. [yes, the actual Molly Ringwald]

#RAPEublican is getting popular on Twitter.
posted by urbanwhaleshark at 4:08 PM on October 6, 2018 [13 favorites]

Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation will delegitimize the Supreme Court — and that’s good.

Starting with the substantive doctrine of Lopez and the procedural weirdness of Bush v. Gore, judicial conservatives have been undermining electoral democracy to entrench their power on the bench and then wielded that power to undermine democratic governance.

If that argument begins to gain purchase with the mass public, sensible Republican judges will hopefully turn back from the brink. If they don’t, the argument will need to be propelled forward to offer a more specific remedy. But either way, the cloud of illegitimacy hanging over Kavanaugh’s head will be helpful in waking the public from its slumber.

posted by triggerfinger at 4:10 PM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

So a vote for Murkowski is a vote for Chuck Grassley to head the Judiciary Committee, even if Murkowski sometimes breaks ranks with her party. And similar, Manchin is a turd, but a turdy Democrat is preferable to any Republican, because Democrats desperately need to get back control of the Senate.

Yeah. What the Republicans have figured out is that you maintain power by treating our government like a parliamentary system in general elections even though it isn't. You aren't actually voting for your candidate at that point, you're voting for the party. The rank and file voters don't think about it in terms of systems of government in this way but that's the effect.

The advantage is that as long as Democrats don't do the same thing you have lots of power beyond your numbers. The disadvantage is that doing it blindly means you end up supporting Roy Moore because you're voting for the Republican Party rather than sexual predator Roy Moore. In moral terms that's absolutely a terrible thing. In hard-edged political terms, well, they've just seated another Supreme Court Justice.

I do believe Democrats can and must move towards supporting the Party rather than individual candidates in general elections. It seems implausible that we can't do it without becoming the monsters we fight by simply refusing to nominate child molestors and rapists in our primaries... unlike the GOP.

tl;dr - we've evolved into a quasi-Parliamentary system and the GOP leadership has figured that out while rank and file Democrats haven't.
posted by Justinian at 4:12 PM on October 6, 2018 [51 favorites]

Thanks Justinian and AAC. Based on what both of you said, I would have a hard time wanting a democrat to win the primary who was too far to the left to win the general. (until Democrats were in a 55+ post-filibuster/supermaj situation, at the very least)

Of course, I would also vote for a rock with a D painted on it for president in the general if said rock was the only D candidate, so other's mileage may vary.
posted by bootlegpop at 4:13 PM on October 6, 2018 [3 favorites]

Based on what both of you said, I would have a hard time wanting a democrat to win the primary who was too far to the left to win the general. (until Democrats were in a 55+ post-filibuster/supermaj situation, at the very least)

One thing that I will say to that is that voters' perception of radicalness often doesn't have a lot to do with a candidate's ideology or policy positions. Republicans have used this to excellent effect: "reasonable" voters will often vote for fanatical Republican ideologues, as long as they seem calm and rational and like someone who would behave themselves at your Memorial Day cookout. So I'm not convinced that "too far to the left to win the general" is entirely a thing. I think that a lot of Midwestern voters wouldn't care if a candidate wanted to nationalize the auto industry, as long as he was a tall man with a square jaw who seemed like he liked football and beer.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:20 PM on October 6, 2018 [25 favorites]

Dave Wasserman on what I believe to be the under-reported looming legitimacy crisis in our government:

Not sure if it’s blissful ignorance during a “blue wave,” but IMHO many Dems are majorly underestimating/overlooking how weak their hand could be in Congress over the long term when these red state seats finally fall. [...] The reality is: Trump won 46.1% nationally & lost the popular vote by 2.9 million but carried 60/100 Senate seats. Not sure how many Dems fully grasp how huge a problem that is going forward.

He's a polling and and analysis guy so he's not framing it in legitimacy terms but that's absolutely what it is. Consider in 10 or 20 years if demographic changes mean Democrats regularly capture the White House, often the House of Representatives, but are unable to ever get a majority in the Senate... forever. Not a single piece of legislation or judicial appointment can pass. Ever.

We've got to focus on the short term for now but as Wasserman is pointing out this is an ominous storm on the horizon.
posted by Justinian at 4:20 PM on October 6, 2018 [20 favorites]

Consider in 10 or 20 years if demographic changes mean Democrats regularly capture the White House, often the House of Representatives, but are unable to ever get a majority in the Senate... forever.

This or a version thereof is the reason why presidential systems on the US model have all failed where attempted (with the sole example of the US, thus far).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 4:25 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

NYT, Show How You Feel, Kavanaugh Was Told, and a Nomination Was Saved

Christine Blasey Ford had just finished testifying that he had tried to force himself on her as a teenager, and nearly everyone in both camps found her credible, sincere and sympathetic. President Trump called Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, and they agreed she was impressive. “We’re only at halftime,” Mr. McConnell said, trying to be reassuring.

Mr. Trump thought it was time to bring in the F.B.I. to investigate, as many opponents of Judge Kavanaugh had urged, but when he called the Hart Building, Donald F. McGahn II, his White House counsel, refused to take the call. Instead, Mr. McGahn cleared the room and sat down with Judge Kavanaugh and his wife, Ashley Kavanaugh. The only way to save his nomination, Mr. McGahn said, was to show the senators how he really felt, to channel his outrage and indignation at the charges he had denied.

posted by zachlipton at 4:26 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

Jesus, I'm fed up with the congratulatory analysis pieces on how Republicans achieved this strategic victory.

They achieved it by smearing sexual assault survivors, bombarding their base with propaganda, and voting in lockstep for a likely unrepentant rapist and definite liar to hold a lifetime appointment to the nation's highest court. I really don't fucking care if Don McGahn saved the day by refusing to take a phone call. How is that the story that needs to be told here?
posted by Nerd of the North at 4:31 PM on October 6, 2018 [125 favorites]

Consider in 10 or 20 years if demographic changes mean Democrats regularly capture the White House, often the House of Representatives, but are unable to ever get a majority in the Senate... forever. Not a single piece of legislation or judicial appointment can pass. Ever.

This is another reason why local elections, governorships and state houses, are important too. I tell people that California can have Nice Things because we are a blue state with a capable governor and functioning legislature. And wouldn't it be sweeter than wine to turf Scott Walker out of Wisconsin? Functional states can protect their residents against a dysfunctional federal government. (As we are seeing in California.)

So if anyone wants to donate on a local level - Tony Evers in Wisconsin (help him defeat horrible Scott Walker!), Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, and most of all Stacey Abrams in Georgia, could use a little extra dough.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 4:39 PM on October 6, 2018 [15 favorites]

But... they're saying the same thing I kept saying. They're not necessarily wrong about Avenatti. Perhaps he did the right thing as a lawyer representing his client to the best of his abilities but that doesn't mean he was helpful to the cause of stopping Kavanaugh.

Is there any reason to disbelieve Swetnick? Or have people simply decided her testimony is too horrible to be possible, and written her off?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:46 PM on October 6, 2018 [11 favorites]

Friends, this is an awful day (similar to November 9 2016). But I also have hope. And we all should.. The hope that we all find... buried down deep inside , the hope that one's instinct to survive kicks in to FIGHT. In any way that one can.


The dream that we will make this world a fair and equal place for our children and grandchildren and their grandchildren is hanging in the balance.


Or, ya know, I like beer!

Pick your side.
posted by kiwi-epitome at 4:49 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

The Washington Post's Trump Whisperer*, Phil Rucker had a short phone interview with him this afternoon before he departed for tonight's rally, "where he was looking to take a victory lap": Trump Says Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski ‘Will Never Recover’ For Voting No On Kavanaugh Naturally Trump uses his moment of triumph to attack a woman personally for having defied his wishes, narcissistic injury being what it is.

* An epithet bestowed on those few journalists whom Trump personally uses to channel anonymous leaks—along with Rucker, there's the NYT's Maggie Haberman and Axios's Jonathan Swan.

Daniel Dale is live-tweeting/fact-checking Trump's Kansas rally tonight. It's going to be an ugly, self-congratulatory spectacle, but it's important not to look away: "Trump calls this a "historic night." He says Kavanaugh's confirmation is a victory for the country and "our beloved Constitution." There is very loud cheering."

“Sir Alert: Trump, with a ridiculous lie, says that he was advised that today is so historic, with Kavanaugh being confirmed, that he should cancel his Kansas rally, but he decided he wouldn't do that. "They called me, they said, Sir we're signing the next Supreme Court Justice."”
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:50 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

John Roberts (63): Nominated by a president who lost the popular vote
Clarence Thomas (70): Accused of sexual assault
Samuel Alito (68): Nominated by a president who lost the popular vote
Neil Gorsuch (51): Nominated by a president who lost the popular vote; seat stolen from Merrick Garland
Brett Kavanaugh (53): Nominated by a president who lost the popular vote; accused of sexual assault

Ruth Bader Ginsburg is 85
Stephen Breyer is 80
Sonia Sotomayor is 64
Elena Kagan is 58
posted by kirkaracha at 5:00 PM on October 6, 2018 [51 favorites]

Trump Says Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski ‘Will Never Recover’ For Voting No On Kavanaugh

But she didn't vote "no". She loyally voted "present" in accordance with her Republican Party's directions to effectively help another Republican vote "no" who was absent.
posted by JackFlash at 5:07 PM on October 6, 2018 [7 favorites]

And passing along that kind of inaccuracy without correction in the headline is the price Rucker has to pay for his access.
posted by Doktor Zed at 5:13 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

I like to think that if and when the Democrats take the House, they will hold 100 hearings on Kavanaugh-gazi, and he'll be forced to testify under oath for 11 hours at a stretch at each one. THEN the House Committees can call all the neglected witnesses.

They think just cause they shoved him through this is over.

Nothing is over until WE decide it is.
posted by mikelieman at 5:29 PM on October 6, 2018 [44 favorites]

How Pissed-Off Parents and Teachers Could Expel Scott Walker From Office - Patrick Caldwell, Mother Jones

[Wisconsin Governor] Walker, the union-busting Republican who came to power in the tea party wave of 2010, is running for a third term. ... the race has been dominated by a debate over the state’s public schools, which have suffered from massive funding reductions and teacher shortages during his tenure.
...
In 2011, Walker jammed through the anti-union Act 10, which stripped public school teachers of their right to collectively bargain, made it harder for unions to collect dues, and forced educators to contribute far more to their health insurance and pensions. The legislation sparked massive protests at the state Capitol, led to an unsuccessful recall effort, and helped turn Walker into a conservative folk hero.

At the same time, Walker slashed funding for K-12 schools by $792 million over two years. During his first five years in office, he cut education spending by a total of $1.2 billion. More recently, he’s increased funding somewhat, though not enough to offset the damage caused by the earlier reductions.

The result has been disastrous. Districts around the state face applicant shortages when trying to fill job openings, as teachers look for work in other states and new college graduates avoid the profession altogether.
...
So it’s fitting that Walker’s opponent is Tony Evers, the state’s superintendent of education. A 66-year-old with nerdy glasses that often sit slightly askew, Evers (rhymes with “fevers”) has spent his entire working life in education. He often wears a black T-shirt that says, “I ❤ My Public School,” and he has put education at the center of his campaign—a move that helped him cruise to an easy victory in a crowded primary. Now, he has a chance to do something that liberals have been dreaming about for nearly a decade: remove Walker from the Wisconsin Statehouse.

posted by ZeusHumms at 5:43 PM on October 6, 2018 [31 favorites]

I like to think that if and when the Democrats take the House,

If a Senator who's in office for 6 years is afraid of being primaried, them there is no way a Rep is going to do this.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 6:01 PM on October 6, 2018

One thing that I will say to that is that voters' perception of radicalness often doesn't have a lot to do with a candidate's ideology or policy positions. Republicans have used this to excellent effect: "reasonable" voters will often vote for fanatical Republican ideologues, as long as they seem calm and rational and like someone who would behave themselves at your Memorial Day cookout. So I'm not convinced that "too far to the left to win the general" is entirely a thing. I think that a lot of Midwestern voters wouldn't care if a candidate wanted to nationalize the auto industry, as long as he was a tall man with a square jaw who seemed like he liked football and beer.

When you strip away party affiliation, studies consistently show that Democratic platform planks are significantly more popular than Republican ones across the board. A fair part of it lies with their willingness to lie & deceive but we also have terrible messaging & branding.
posted by scalefree at 6:54 PM on October 6, 2018 [17 favorites]

>f a Senator who's in office for 6 years is afraid of being primaried, them there is no way a Rep is going to do this.

The only way Barbara Lee is leaving office is if she retires. Honestly, same goes for most Democrats in the house. That’s what gerrymandering and a two-party system produces — almost all incumbents can almost always expect reëlection.

Representatives are safe. I recall reading a while back that there was more turnover in the freaking soviet legislature than there is in the house of representatives.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 6:58 PM on October 6, 2018 [5 favorites]

The only way Barbara Lee is leaving office is if she retires.

I was Barbara Lee's constituent back when 9/11 happened. Lee was the only congressperson who spoke out against going to war with Iraq. And while that was a tremendously unpopular stance among people at large, at the time, she was applauded by her constituents. (I, and my coworkers, wore "Barbara Lee Speaks For Me" buttons!)

And (checks notes) Barbara Lee is still in office and is running unopposed. Her constituents love her. What I'm saying is that a congressperson saying something that really did risk blowback - opposing the Iraq War in late 2001! - didn't cause her to lose her next election. Yes, Lee represents probably one of the most liberal districts in the country, but the courage of her convictions was respected as well. If a congressperson is principled (and the unpopular opinion is not a shitty unpopular-for-a-reason one) I think the risk would be worth it. (Fingers crossed for Heidi Heitkamp!)
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 7:10 PM on October 6, 2018 [44 favorites]

“Sir Alert: Trump, with a ridiculous lie, says that he was advised that today is so historic, with Kavanaugh being confirmed, that he should cancel his Kansas rally, but he decided he wouldn't do that. "They called me, they said, Sir we're signing the next Supreme Court Justice."”

I've come to realize that some of his lying is done sheerly for pleasure, that it's proof of his eugenic fitness to rule that he can outrageously lie & get away with it. It's icing on the cake of preening for praise to him, that he can cheat his way to getting that next big hit of the narcissistic drug he craves.
posted by scalefree at 7:18 PM on October 6, 2018 [12 favorites]

“Wednesday. 10/10/18

#StrikeAgainstKavanaugh, organized by @NLGnews student organizers.

Spread the word.”

Sounds like the national lawyer guild and legal students are down
posted by The Whelk at 7:32 PM on October 6, 2018 [21 favorites]

Given that Mitch McConnell is the one bona fide strategic thinker among the Trumpublicans, I interpret this comment to mean that these tactics were very effective and disruptive and genuinely disturbing to him and his conference.

Hmm. Since the vote is exactly what it would have been a week ago, I can't agree with that.

*gleefully drops a box of radical literature on the table* Lets start with Rosa Luxembourg's Revolution Or Reformand Angela Davis' Are Prisons Necessary and work from there.

I know there are a lot of recent affiliations with the left going on, but I think it's a mistake to think folks aren't already aware of its history and literature. A lot of us have been at this a long time. The thing is that we're not going to win based on approaches like reading radical literature. It's true that

a lot of Midwestern voters wouldn't care if a candidate wanted to nationalize the auto industry, as long as he was a tall man with a square jaw who seemed like he liked football and beer.

And it's true that

we also have terrible messaging & branding.

...and discipline. The thing is, we did not lose this because we faced a thoughtful, substantive opposition informed by a literary tradition and sophisticated political philosophy. We lost it based entirely on symbols and tribalism. And since I don't think we're going to be able to execute dramatic changes in information literacy, implicit bias, critical thinking, and education levels in the short term, if we're ever going to win, we're going to win on symbols and tribalism.

And honestly, we're not very good at it; "please read my pamphlet" isn't the winning strategy. We've got to get a whole lot dumber in our approach: more direct, more gut-level, more confident/less anxious, more optimistic, more willing to use clear and shallow messaging. Those are teh characteristics of the electorate. We've got to meet people where they are. And we really suck at it, as is obvious.
posted by Miko at 7:50 PM on October 6, 2018 [66 favorites]

learning how to craft emotional appeals to materialist conditions is something you can get from radical literature.

Like I wrote two years ago, our messaging must be as blunt and direct as the problems facing people.
posted by The Whelk at 8:07 PM on October 6, 2018 [27 favorites]

#RAPEublican is getting popular on Twitter

what with all the "dignity wraith" nomenclature, suggest all who voted to advance that justice's nomination earn the designation #kavanaughzgûl (or #kavanazgûl?) to be appended to their names henceforth, as in,
"Joe Manchin, D-WV, a rare democratic member of the #kavanaughzgûl, is reliably disappointing."

have been working on #kavanaughazi or #kavanaughghazi, or perhaps even #kavanaughghazigate, in my manifesting visualizations of what i'd like to see a post-blue wave congress focusing on for no fewer than eight grueling hearings to get to the bottom of the coverup conspiracies (TTT&S). of course those, at least to my eye, quickly also suggest something like #kavanazi, though "nazi" does not seem so be so potent a slur in the good ol' usa as it used to be. i'm'a hold that one in reserve for his anticipated deciding vote...

welcome your use, tweaks or workshoppery.
posted by 20 year lurk at 8:18 PM on October 6, 2018 [4 favorites]

what with all the "dignity wraith" nomenclature, suggest all who voted to advance that justice's nomination earn the designation #kavanaughzgûl (or #kavanazgûl?) to be appended to their names henceforth, as in,
"Joe Manchin, D-WV, a rare democratic member of the #kavanaughzgûl, is reliably disappointing."

Eh. Evocative for those who get it, targeting rabid Tolkien fans doesn't strike me as destined for deep penetration or wide circulation. #RAPEublicans is both earworm-similar to the original & instantly meaningful to anyone who sees or hears it. Subtle? No. But that's not what's needed here.
posted by scalefree at 8:37 PM on October 6, 2018 [15 favorites]

> And honestly, we're not very good at it; "please read my pamphlet" isn't the winning strategy. We've got to get a whole lot dumber in our approach: more direct, more gut-level, more confident/less anxious, more optimistic, more willing to use clear and shallow messaging.

Natalie from ContraPoints has a really thoughtful (and also hilarious) video where she works through the problems with leftist messaging and discusses what we should be doing instead. tl;dr: she says we need to be "ice cold motherfuckers." quote: "it's possible to be both angry and cool, and what do you get when you sprinkle a little anger in a glass of cool? ICE COLD." She proposes Miles Davis as a model.

(also the video features the internet's favorite anarchosyndicalist catgirl and a new vaporwave-inspired cover for the marx-engels reader)
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 8:48 PM on October 6, 2018 [35 favorites]

have been working on #kavanaughazi or #kavanaughghazi, or perhaps even #kavanaughghazigate

All too inside baseball and complicated. I think #kavanaw would work better.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:40 PM on October 6, 2018 [2 favorites]

You're responsible for your own due diligence here but these look legit.

@IamShaneMorris If you'd like to run for office in 2020, and you're a young, progressive candidate, in a (currently) red state -- my company will build out your entire digital platform (website, email campaigns, SMS etc) for $1.

DM me for more info.
----------------------------
@LMegaparsec Check with a group like @runforsomething or @SheShouldRun for tips & training.
posted by scalefree at 10:12 PM on October 6, 2018 [15 favorites]

I'm not sure whether this has been linked here before but it's really interesting.
Maggie Koerth-Baker at 538: How Money Affects Elections

Spoiler: not so much and it's hard to untangle cause and effect.
posted by Joe in Australia at 11:14 PM on October 6, 2018

Maggie Koerth-Baker at 538: How Money Affects Eating contests

I admit to scanning through part of the article looking for something in particular and I was super ready to righteously declaim that Koerth-Baker had missed the obvious bit about all the money attracting a certain sort of person; it took me the second read to find this bit right near the end:

Another example of where money might matter: Determining who is capable of running for elected office to begin with. Ongoing research from Alexander Fouirnaies, professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, suggests that, as it becomes normal for campaigns to spend higher and higher amounts, fewer people run and more of those who do are independently wealthy. In other words, the arms race of unnecessary campaign spending could help to enshrine power among the well-known and privileged.

“That may be the biggest effect of money in politics,” West wrote to me in an email.

Money might matter.
Who runs chasing all the money may be the biggest effect.

@IamShaneMorris If you'd like to run for office in 2020, and you're a young, progressive candidate...

----------------------------
@LMegaparsec Check with a group like @runforsomething or @SheShouldRun for tips & training.

Following up on my book report for The Fifth Risk, if you are a scientist [hard, data, other], mathematician, humanitarian project manager, or in any way interested in what the United States Federal Government provides to its Citizenry please consider work in the public sector when it becomes available again. ... Soon after the young, progressive candidates get elected I hope.
posted by carsonb at 11:36 PM on October 6, 2018 [6 favorites]

Notably in the 538 article though "[t]he candidate who spends the most money usually wins" but "that doesn’t mean spending caused the win."

Also even if it were true that money doesn't affect elections, that's a different question from whether money achieves political outcomes.

And I'm inclined to wonder how, when political scientists look at these questions, they evaluate contributions like free espionage and propaganda services from the Russian government and things like Cambridge Analytica's horde of pilfered Facebook data. Are those sorts of things even counted and valued as in-kind donations?

The proclamations that money has no effect on politics, so stridently made even before Citizens United and McCutcheon v. FEC, always seem like thinly-supported conventional wisdom which everyone repeats, to me.
posted by XMLicious at 11:45 PM on October 6, 2018 [10 favorites]

- have been working on #kavanaughazi or #kavanaughghazi, or perhaps even #kavanaughghazigate

-- All too inside baseball and complicated. I think #kavanaw would work better.

Hmm, effective, memorable neologisms... hang on, lemme ask Rick Santorum.
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:00 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

I just want to fast forward to where it fades to black and lists how long everyone got in prison.
posted by adept256 at 2:25 AM on October 7, 2018 [97 favorites]

Self described "liberal Democrat" Alan Dershowitz is already telling us that we must "move forward and not look backward." And where did this liberal Democrat tell us this? In an op-ed written for FOX News of course! It's worth noting that Alan Dershowitz is one of the more frequent "liberal" commentators that NPR invites, when they bother to invite one.

In the linked op-ed, Dershowitz argues that it would be both foolhardy and illegal for the hypothetical Democratic House to even investigate Kavanaugh's perjury, much less allegations of his history as a sexual predator.
posted by sotonohito at 4:54 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

That Fivethirtyeight piece does not talk about what it would look like, statistically, if money were necessary but not sufficient for running a winning campaign. Or how advertising affects turnout, as opposed to persuasion. Or whether name recognition alone is the important factor, suggesting that the value of advertising would fall of once everyone knows who you are. Or my favorite hypnosis, that advertising and propaganda work by affecting what you perceive as normal and what you think everyone else is doing, rather than by changing your own beliefs, and how THAT affects turnout.

I have not really read the research, but it is hard for me to believe that any really conclusive studies have been done in an environment with so many confounding factors and so few opportunities to run a control group. I don't think we really know the effect of money in politics.

(I think it's better that people who want to effect social change spend their money on ads rather than weapons, though.)
posted by OnceUponATime at 4:58 AM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

All too inside baseball and complicated. I think #kavanaw would work better.

I'm going with #Brettgazi
posted by mikelieman at 5:16 AM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

my favorite hypnosis, that advertising and propaganda work by affecting what you perceive as normal and what you think everyone else is doing

This is absolutely it - communicating through social norms and peer groups - and a lot of what I meant by tribalism. Low-information people (the majority) are moved toward whatever their friends and people like them seem to be doing - whatever has the energy. This, more than anything else, is what put Obama over the top, and that was an anomaly as we now know. But somehow the campaign managed the trick of making it seem like supporting Obama was what everyone cool, everyone like you, was doing. And for the critical, mushy, not-that-sophisticated-about-politics middle that decides everything, that's the main thing you need.

The Kavanaugh issue was ultimately decided in a very similar way, on popular opinion influenced most by close peers repeating the work of propagandists, I'm sorry to say. Despite all the actions, the prevailing notion outside the liberal bubble was that the libtard snowflakes ginned up a story again. Everyone had a great old time aligning together around laughing at women and celebrating men that like beer. Most of them knew very little of the facts, details, and nuance that made us lose our minds here and in our own circles. They didn't even care, and as soon as we went in with the details, we wore them out with our wonky, fine-haired debates about wording and yearbooks. We looked like we were talking trees, not forest. And as soon as the GOP had the chance to test the waters and do some research, they found that out. Of course, they also realized this was an issue not decided by the people, so who cares. Now they're going to pump this all the way through the midterms. So we gotta stop doing the trees thing.

The ContraPoints video was worth the time.

learning how to craft emotional appeals to materialist conditions is something you can get from radical literature

While this is to some degree true - though the choice of source needs to be very selective, because tactical thinking is honestly not a great strength of the historical left, and radical literature will not always or even often be the best source - when it comes out the other end, it can't look like radical literature. It needs to look like friends, memes, celebrities, etc. Also, we will not find it productive to do things like refer to human beings as "materialist conditions."
posted by Miko at 5:43 AM on October 7, 2018 [27 favorites]

I'm going with #Brettgazi

And I'm going with I'm sorry but weaksauce, CLEVAR hashtags won't win the day, any more than "read my pamphlet" will — or for that matter, "the internet's favorite anarchosyndicalist catgirl," however much I might wish otherwise.

Look, people are in pain. People are afraid. People expect more pain coming, and they're right to. They don't need anything CLEVAR. They need power: the power to see to their wounds, and to bind up each other's. The power to draw lines around their hearts and their families and their communities, and to hold those lines against anyone who would transgress them. The power to transform pain and fear into capacity and competence, and the power to make meaningful change in the world at every scale from the individual body to the ecosphere.

In my heart I simply don't think electoral politics — representative democracy as we understand it — is capable of speaking to these needs. Every hour we repose our trust and hope in its fragile institutions is an hour we're not building selves and systems capable of thriving in the face of adversity. So by all means vote. By all means work with the tools you're handed. But please, please don't invest everything in the idea that the slumbering electorate can be roused to righteous action if only it once comes to understand how high the stakes are. For many of us, the stakes have been as high as they possibly can be for quite some time now, and the Audacity of Hope has gotten us nothing but a front-row seat at the gleeful, deliberate, painstaking destruction of every value we cherish.

The smug, privileged libertarian douchebros I know frame their choice as that between "voice" and "exit": feeling like conventional politics offers them no scope for authentic expression, they've opted out. That they always seem to do so with an I'm-taking-my-ball-and-going-home huff and flounce doesn't invalidate the framing, though, and I happen to think that in this instance it's the right one. We tried voice, and as kirkaracha observes above, voice got us five thoroughly illegitimate Justices, a captured institution and the decades of angry, threatened, revanchist thought it now stands to enshrine as the law of the land. I think the time has come to ask what exit looks like for vulnerable people, for exhausted, terrified people, for people under every kind of threat and risk and pressure — for people who have very, very little left to lose, and a world to win.
posted by adamgreenfield at 5:47 AM on October 7, 2018 [55 favorites]

That was stirring, but I'm not sure what it means, when I look around me at the 2- and 3- job-working immigrants and poor in the neighborhood I live in. They don't have time to build "selves and systems capable of thriving in the face of adversity" any more than they already do and any more than they do for political engagement. Unfortunately, we have developed systems for health, housing, food supply, water supply, protection, access, education and everything else that work at a scale that determines individual outcomes with a great degree of power, and the less privileged you are, the more vulnerable you are to the harms of those systems. There's really no exit from that. There's really no viable option outside of political engagement. Thinking seriously about scaling any alternative to using the governmental system is just a hippier-sounding version of "faith-based initiatives" and "a thousand points of light."
posted by Miko at 5:52 AM on October 7, 2018 [33 favorites]

Forgive me, Miko, but tell that to the people of Rojava.
posted by adamgreenfield at 6:02 AM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

WSJ: GOP Operative Secretly Raised at Least $100,000 in Search for Clinton Emails; Opposition researcher’s efforts are of intense interest to investigators probing Russian election interference

"Mr. Smith’s effort to find what he believed were some 33,000 deleted emails Mrs. Clinton said were personal was first reported by the Journal in a 2017 story, but the extent of his planning went far beyond what was previously known."
posted by MonkeyToes at 6:02 AM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

And I'm going with I'm sorry but weaksauce, CLEVAR hashtags won't win the day,

Not by themselves, but consider that if/when the Democrats take the House, the #Brettgazi hearings will be a priority. The House Democrats will have the opportunity to hold as many hours of hearings as it takes to get the testimony of EVERY witness whom has come forward. Hopefully in a format that requires Kavanaugh to appear often while others testify, so he can be cross examined as to his prior testimony. In this instance, I kind of like the "independent sex-crimes prosecutor" format, where one person can sustain a line of questioning beyond members' time.

When you "bengazi" Brett Kavanaugh, #Brettgazi is the perfect tag. And I pray to G-d that's on the top of the agenda.
posted by mikelieman at 6:04 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

When you "bengazi" Brett Kavanaugh, #Brettgazi is the perfect tag.

Not even for a New York minute. Can't you see how that framing suggests that Benghazi was a legitimate inquiry, and cheapens and condescends to the rageful hurt people are feeling?
posted by adamgreenfield at 6:06 AM on October 7, 2018 [72 favorites]

Unfortunately, we have developed systems for health, housing, food supply, water supply, protection, access, education and everything else that work at a scale that determines individual outcomes with a great degree of power, and the less privileged you are, the more vulnerable you are to the harms of those systems. There's really no exit from that. There's really no viable option outside of political engagement.

Exactly. And is self-linking to my own comments permitted? I've seen it done, so I'll go ahead, that's from the autonomous car thread and it's about where we're broadly headed with transportation...

The point is, we're moving at near light speed into a future where, because we can all talk to each other instantaneously, governments and everybody else are going to start harnessing that power. That means more of the bad, the propaganda, but it also means more of the good, and it's already almost so ubiquitous that tuning out is only an option if you are incredibly privileged. Political engagement and action is all we have to save ourselves from being roadkill on the freeway to the future. The rage you feel over Kavanaugh? That you felt over Trump? Nurture it. You'll need it in the years and decades to come. It will be the very thing by which you survive the changes to come and build something stronger out of the wreckage. Engage now and forever, find your niche and your power, and push.
posted by saysthis at 6:07 AM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

And I'm inclined to wonder how, when political scientists look at these questions, they evaluate contributions like free espionage and propaganda services from the Russian government and things like Cambridge Analytica's horde of pilfered Facebook data. Are those sorts of things even counted and valued as in-kind donations?

Generally they don't believe it had an impact at all. It reminds me of Masha Gessen's claim that Russian interference didn't impact the election, because the most of the messaging was so dumb. Have you seen TheDonald reddit? That's how Trump supporters talk.

Another example of money talking: The Democratic Party supported Pritzker for Governor in Illinois. His ONLY qualification was money. They had plenty of other candidates with experience and passion. So that's money having an impact right there. Now we're stuck with this joke of a candidate.


Low-information people (the majority) are moved toward whatever their friends and people like them seem to be doing - whatever has the energy. This, more than anything else, is what put Obama over the top.

I started worrying about Trump when I saw the energy of his supporters. I think there's something to this.
posted by xammerboy at 6:10 AM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

Kavanauts?
posted by ian1977 at 6:26 AM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

"Mr. Smith’s effort to find what he believed were some 33,000 deleted emails Mrs. Clinton said were personal was first reported by the Journal in a 2017 story, but the extent of his planning went far beyond what was previously known."

That would be NO FOUL PLAY WHATSOEVER - ALL SELF INFLICTED - NO PARTY ASSISTED OR HAD KNOWLEDGE AS AN ACCOMPLICE BEFORE THE FACT Peter Smith.
posted by Rust Moranis at 6:29 AM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

Not even for a New York minute. Can't you see how that framing suggests that Benghazi was a legitimate inquiry, and cheapens and condescends to the rageful hurt people are feeling?

If you're a RAPEpublican, then you think they were legitimate. If you're not, you don't. No-one's opinion on the legitimacy of the bengazi hearings will ever be changed.

I think we need the hearings in the House, and I think that given the above, go with the best marketing you can.

( Oh and thirding ContraPoint's analysis -- worth the 15 minutes )
posted by mikelieman at 6:33 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

Generally they don't believe it had an impact at all.

That's not quite true. What the elections crowd don't believe is, specifically, the simple account media types and notionally do-gooder groups offer pretty often -- the candidate with the most money almost always wins, therefore money is all that matters.

Unsurprisingly, if you offer "Money doesn't matter in the way that you think it does. It plays more a role in, for example, determining whether an incumbent faces a high-quality challenger or a sacrificial lamb. But in the immediate circumstances of an election itself, [15 minute explanation of endogeneity]" to a reporter on a short deadline who already knows what they want to write, it commonly gets compressed to "So-and-so, professor of political science at Wossamatta U, said 'Money doesn't matter.'"
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:37 AM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

Group identity drives voting patterns more than facts. The overwhelming power of group identity in the face of everything else is the conclusion of basically every study into the subject, period. The only way to overcome that identity is to convince people that the outsiders are part of their group. Openly pointing out to people the ways fear-based rhetoric is used to divide us, and underlying the ways in which their needs are similar to that of the out-group, however that is defined.

There's been some great research done by Demos on this very subject.
posted by Anonymous at 6:38 AM on October 7, 2018

Also unfortunately Trump's hardcore base is mobilized by what they see as attacks on him--namely, the statement of facts. His base is not who we're going to convince. Which means the only way a Blue Wave will happen is if we engage in the mobilization efforts that will get more people to the polls than they do.
posted by Anonymous at 6:39 AM on October 7, 2018

Here, where I live, politics really were about economic and social issues until relatively recently. Race, gender, identity were not political issues. Millionaires would dress down, live in modest houses, and everyone paid taxes. Women had the right to abortion, there was free health-care, we were the first country to allow gay marriage, and African Americans came to live here in exile during the Vietnam war. Immigrants felt welcomed and found good jobs. It was non-ironically the Socialist Paradise. (Though there were plenty snakes already).
It all started during the -90's when I was away in the US, so I don't know exactly why. And then it exploded during the 2000's. What I'm saying in this US politics thread is I guess what we learnt and then forgot during the -30s and -40s: the concept that the white male is threatened is an extremely powerful driver of first emotions and then politics, even among many white women. It's not rational in itself, but people perceive their subsequent actions as rational. And it can take off very rapidly.

As someone who has lots of white, conservative relatives and friends, I can recognize how they perceive the protests against Kavanaugh as irrational, partisan and threatening. I know their language about this, and I get why they saw his rants as righteous. I am not saying they are right, (I am spending time explaining to them why they are wrong), but I do think those people are beyond redemption, I argue with them because I love them, but it is useless. That is why I more and more believe that the main strategy must be to GOTV. Forget about converting conservative white people. You may be lucky that some people will discover the disconnect between their perception and reality. But don't get your hopes up.

Last week, we had a discussion at work about allowing students to have a Mexican-themed party (there was one at Copenhagen University, so there's a big national discussion). During the discussion, one young, liberal man claimed that all identity issues were rubbish, and if you can't dress up as a Mexican, life is not worth living. I mentioned that my Mexican family had moved back to Mexico from here because the everyday racism was overwhelming, and that I really couldn't see how my life was less amazing because I couldn't mock my own family. All of this is normal, I'm sure you have all experienced this in some form. (As an aside, I'm pretty sure he was an offended student when I tried to veto an African themed colony and colonizers party at my former workplace. I didn't go, so I'm not 100% certain).
But he just continued! He basically said that he was sorry if my family was offended but his right to participate in thematic parties at university was more important than my family's feelings. I do think the cognitive dissonance had a tiny bit of effect on some of the people at my job who have never been at over-the-top themed parties at law school. At least some of my female colleagues wanted to discuss privilege with me at our own party yesterday. But for the majority, the patriarchy is the law.
posted by mumimor at 6:47 AM on October 7, 2018 [49 favorites]

Susan Collins is on CNN basically repeating the Ed Whelan doppelganger theory and saying that's what convinced her.

So all the hand wringing Republicans did over Whelan...they ended up adopting his story wholesale.
posted by T.D. Strange at 6:48 AM on October 7, 2018 [23 favorites]

It strikes me that both global tides of fascism followed the proliferation of radically new methods of communication: radio, and then the internet.

Both information revolutions involved a new medium and distribution models that allowed deliberately persuasive content to be delivered at scale, initially cutting out established gatekeepers and allowing new actors to quickly gain influence. And both audio and especially video are more persuasive than the written word, because they engage us socially in a direct, visceral way—there’s barely any cognition necessary. Bad actors can and have made use of this before we can develop a social...immune system? For it.

But I really, really, really would like to deal with this global tide of fascism without a world fucking war, so...maybe that means fighting the information war first.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:03 AM on October 7, 2018 [43 favorites]

For those who want to donate to the almost 3.5 million fund to unseat Collins especially after she goes with the doppelganger excuse (not theory), here is your link.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 7:09 AM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

The Kavanaugh issue was ultimately decided in a very similar way, on popular opinion influenced most by close peers repeating the work of propagandists, I'm sorry to say. Despite all the actions, the prevailing notion outside the liberal bubble was that the libtard snowflakes ginned up a story again.

That's not how it was decided. Kavanaugh was the most unpopular SCOTUS nominee of all time, and more so the longer the confirmation process went on. He would not have gotten confirmed if it had been decided by the populace -- his favorability rating was that low. He was confirmed by the Senate Republicans (with an assist from Trump and his admin), who don't play some complex political game, they just use threats/bribes to get the members of their party to vote as a block.

Everyday conservatives on the ground freaked out at people speaking out and protesting because they always freak out when anybody is getting "uppity" -- and they wanted these women to shut up and sit down. We were openly fighting THEM, and so obviously that pissed them off, and in return they wanted to give us as big of a "fuck you" as possible. Just like Brett Kavanaugh did after Ford's testimony -- that entitled, embittered rage. Just the same way as when they voted for Trump as reactionary bigotry backlash. But who cares? We have opposing values with them, so we're basically at an impasse in terms of dialogue. Luckily, there are actually more of us than there are of them, so we don't have as weak a hand as we could have. That's our one ace in the hole.

We already won the hearts and minds campaign, guys. We don't need to be dropping pamphlets or brainstorming hashtags or whatever to try and persuade people, the democratic platform is already popular. Sure, voter education is fantastic -- I love it and am pretty heavily involved in it and believe in everyone having access to plenty of it. But universal health care, better school funding (including higher ed), humane immigration policy, diplomacy rather than sabre rattling, whatever -- those are all actually really popular. More people want them than not. And Democratic candidates and politicians are really popular. More people want them than not, too. The last time a Republican went into presidential office having won the popular vote, I was in diapers ('88/'89). And I'm old! Nowadays, my biological clock is ticking and I dye my hair to cover the grey. That was THIRTY years ago. Millions and millions of today's voters have NEVER seen a Republican enter presidential office after winning the popular vote -- the closest they've ever come is W's second term. And even that was fourteen years ago now.

The problem isn't with persuading voters, it's that our democracy isn't working. It's not representative. On a federal level, some people's votes are weighted much more heavily than others -- on the federal level, a voter in Wyoming has much more representation per capita than a voter in California. And because of gerrymandered districts, voter suppression tactics (especially those now made into state law), and election tampering, we can't be sure that our elections are free and fair. And there are also other factors that probably warp our democratic process, like the way that money is given and used. So what I personally think we need to do is to make our federal institutions more democratic.

Yeah, that's difficult logistically and I won't devolve into "fantasy civics" here. The biggest issues are the ones that everyone knows anyway -- the electoral college is the juggernaut, then there's the two-Senators-per-state and the cap on House reps, the cancer-like growth of executive power, activist/partisan courts staffed with lifetime political appointees, etc etc etc. But in any case, making the government more democratic-small-d at the federal level would also inevitably lead to it becoming more Democractic-big-D based on how people have been voting and polling (for decades now). And more importantly, it would also be better because democracy creates more stable and empowered societies. I think key to altering the course the US is on is to look to reforming and strengthening the democratic institutions.

And in that sense, things like mass movements and protests are really important. They are a last-ditch effort at being heard -- at democratic rule -- by people who don't have a voice via the ballot box. What the protestors are saying is important in shifting the cultural conversation and in the culture generally, but the very fact of the protestors' existence also says a lot about how well (not well) our democracy is working and how precarious the situation is.
posted by rue72 at 7:10 AM on October 7, 2018 [70 favorites]

One of the odder things about the Kavanaugh case is, perversely, the way it illustrates how far we've come.

In 27 years we've gone from the defense of the rights of men to sexually assault women being expressed as an unrestricted condemnation of the victim ("a little bit nutty and a little bit slutty"), to the defenders of patriarchy needing to frame their defense in such a way that they don't directly attack the victim.

It's still horrifying and revolting, but the way the Republicans went well out of their way to lavish Dr. Ford with praise, even Kavanaush himself did so, is an improvement. Not much of an improvement, but an improvement nevertheless.

Today they have to embrace the most bizarre of conspiracy theories (that also rely on imagining that Dr. Ford is incompetent to remember who attacked her) rather than simply directly attacking Ford herself.

Of course, that's only official Republicans. Talk to any of the rank and file Republicans and you'll find plenty of attacks on Ford. But the fact that the official Republicans feel the need to take the utterly illogical and bizarre position that Ford is a brave, right, and not at all crazy person who just happened to identify the wrong person as her attacker is a step up from what we saw Prof. Hill go through.

schadenfrau I'm with you on avoiding world war if we can. We're rushing into a state of worldwide flux, the old orders are falling apart and it's going to be up to us and our kids to try and build a new order that's worth having.

I'm not sure what the most effective tactics for that are. And I don't know how to deal with the flood of misinformation on the net. Clearly an internet censorship regime would be the worst possible way to deal with the problem, but I don't know what a better way might be.

Reputation systems can be gamed, or hacked, or simply altered by the people who run them. And I'm not sure having a rep score by a person's name (or pseudonym) really would make much difference anyway.
posted by sotonohito at 7:11 AM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

It all started during the -90's when I was away in the US, so I don't know exactly why.

I do.

The start of the current slide into far-right craziness can be pinpointed with extreme precision. It began 22 years ago (to the day, as it happens!) on October 7, 1996.

I know it's hard for those who have not been watching the current season of the decline and fall of all we hold dear from its beginning on that day to wrap their minds around the idea of a media landscape without Fucks News, but people my age grew up with one. It was far, far healthier. None of us had ever seen anything like Fucks. None of us thought it would last five minutes. But it did, and it's been Stupidest Timeline ever since.
posted by flabdablet at 7:16 AM on October 7, 2018 [36 favorites]

The start of the current slide into far-right craziness can be pinpointed with extreme precision. It happened 22 years ago (to the day, as it happens!) on October 7, 1996.

I don't know. In 1994 a congressman was shooting melons in his yard to prove Bill Clinton murdered Vince Foster. The rot is bone-deep and can't be blamed entirely on Fox.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:25 AM on October 7, 2018 [34 favorites]

T.D. Strange: So all the hand wringing Republicans did over Whelan...they ended up adopting his story wholesale.

The new shift can be summarized as: "Believe" women. Always "believe" women... but never at the expense of men. If you must, swallow all the subsequent paradoxes whole.

We're seeing that echoed in the many perpetrators of #meToo aiming for a comeback without having done much at all to earn it beyond maybe a half-hearted apology. This sense that "both sides" means: when we're talking about victims and survivors, we accept the reality of what happened to them. It was terrible and no one should endure that. Never again! Then, when the focus is on the accused perpetrator, that reality dissolves into the mist. Boys will be bygones.

It's a corollary of the "I'm actually impartial" op-ed that implied a contrast between his public tantrum and his past/future judicial career: Why should Brett Kavanaugh have to suffer just because someone else was attacked by some asshole named Brett? That was Brett the frat boy, not the husband/father/judge. Two wrongs don't make a right, you know.
posted by InTheYear2017 at 7:29 AM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

The problem isn't with persuading voters, it's that our democracy isn't working. It's not representative.

This is why I can only react with what I will call extreme derision to people who decry “fantasy civics.” That is literally just a phrase for “political goals” but dipped in contempt.

How the fuck else do you think things happen? What’s your alternative? Because the way things are going, if we don’t work for extreme — perhaps fantastic — political goals, we’re going to have to either roll over and accept white supremacist Gilead or we fight a war.

What’s that? Fantasy civics doesn’t seem so bad now? If it avoids actual reimplementation of slavery (now with extra steps!) maybe we should talk about how to jerryrig the Senate in the short term, or pack the courts, or or or?

Like goddamn. What the hell else is there to do when getting an actual majority is not enough because our government is structurally designed to be unrepresentative? Either we change the structure of our government or we accept minority rule by white patriarchal supremacists. There are no alternatives.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:31 AM on October 7, 2018 [32 favorites]

The rot is bone-deep and can't be blamed entirely on Fox.

Bone-deep rot is to Fucks as flash is to ruby laser.
posted by flabdablet at 7:32 AM on October 7, 2018

It all started during the -90's when I was away in the US, so I don't know exactly why.

From context, I believe mumimor was talking about attitudes in Denmark, not in the US. I will add, anecdotally, that when visiting Copenhagen in 2003, my Chinese-born wife encountered a lot of latent hostility, especially from older Danes, so I suspect there were already some built-up tensions around non-European immigrants in general by then.
posted by McCoy Pauley at 7:34 AM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

The easy answer for why the right suddenly became so much more vicious and insane throughout the western world in the early 90s is the end of the Cold War: all that paranoia and xenophobia and death-drive got redirected inward.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:37 AM on October 7, 2018 [26 favorites]

have been working on #kavanaughazi or #kavanaughghazi, or perhaps even #kavanaughghazigate

All too inside baseball and complicated. I think #kavanaw would work better.

#Kavanazi seems like a nice compromise between these two to me.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 7:39 AM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

In 27 years we've gone from the defense of the rights of men to sexually assault women being expressed as an unrestricted condemnation of the victim ("a little bit nutty and a little bit slutty"), to the defenders of patriarchy needing to frame their defense in such a way that they don't directly attack the victim.

They were directly attacking the victim, though, and the cover story of "maybe she was confused about who did it" isn't being proposed in good faith, not even Collins believes it, and it's essentially the "stop hitting yourself!" move of a schoolyard bully. A lot of time and effort goes into creating and spreading transparent lies that nobody believes because all that matters is that they have a narrative, no matter how obviously it's a lie, and the media will run with it.

Like we just went through this whole period where the media was treating Rudy Giuliani's insane ramblings as if they were serious. All that matters is responding to every question with a shouted "nuh uh!" and the commentators will say "Sure, his fingerprints were on the bloody knife and we've got him on video committing the crime, but he said 'nuh uh!' so I guess we can never know! Let's bring on an expert to unpack this situation, Mr. Indignant White Man from the Heritage Foundation."
posted by jason_steakums at 7:40 AM on October 7, 2018 [11 favorites]

Bredesen just torpedoed his own campaign today. The huge majority of Dem door-knockers and postcard-writers here are women and Bredesen just lost all of us. Most of us are quietly admitting that we'll still vote for him (have you seen the alternative? omg) but his GOTV effort died today.

CBS:
Bredesen 42
Blackburn 50
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:54 AM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

so...maybe that means fighting the information war first.

With World War I, it was also on-the-ground communications technologies: the loudspeaker was an essential tool for the spread of fascist ideas (before the microphone and the loudspeaker, Hitler would maybe only have been an asshole on a street corner yelling loud enough for 30 people to hear). Massive leaps in communications technologies create massive disruptions, but the one we've been living through recently is especially challenging because, for the very first time, human beings are having to learn to live with and understand massively mediated experiences and information.

Check my comment history if you're curious, I talked about this a lot in the first six months or so after Trump's election, but an easy example is an experience that a good friend who works on a supply yard had this week: random morning, yard is active as usual, and his foreman--out of nowhere--starts angrily ranting about what "the liberal pussies" are doing to Kavanaugh, etc. This dude has no real interest in the Supreme Court or politics at all, but his conservative media told him he should be really angry about all the mean, hateful stuff that bad people are doing to good people like him, and so that's what his head is filled with, and that's what he was actively angry about at work on a random Wednesday morning. No reason or cause specific to his actual real life was apparent. (My friend, to his credit, simply said "I'd rather be a liberal pussy than support a rapist," and walked away. But GAH the anger and toxicity and indignation that is simply manufactured, it's everywhere.)
posted by LooseFilter at 8:06 AM on October 7, 2018 [41 favorites]

Also, a separate thought in reply to adamgreenfield's earlier comment:

Can't you see how that framing suggests that Benghazi was a legitimate inquiry, and cheapens and condescends to the rageful hurt people are feeling?

That seems to me a writer's framing; almost no one else considers these issues in quite this Platonic way. The analogy that occurs to me is something like 'I know that if we run our secret trick play, we'll score the last few points we need to win....But the use of a trick play cheapens this noble game and condescends to our fine opponents. If we can't beat them honorably on the field, forthrightly, then we don't deserve to win.'

It's the most points on the board that wins the game, not the most points earned in the most laudable fashion. Government is about power, and maybe democracies obscure some of the uglier truths of that by trying to make power the result of consensus and consent rather than mere strength, but the essential dynamic remains. Republicans understand this, and now Brett Kavanaugh is one of the most powerful and influential people in the U.S., likely for the rest of his life. 'Feelings' and 'thoughts' are simply not real next to that actuality.

I don't advocate abandoning all of one's principles, ethics or morals to fight as dirty as needed to win, either, but I think that various degrees of the perfect being the enemy of the good are luxuries no longer affordable to us in this fight.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:11 AM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

LooseFilter: while I agree about fighting effectively, you've got to fight effectively and that means considering your audience.

And to the left the -ghazi ending has been used in a mocking way to suggest that a "scandal" is fake for a while now. Attaching that suffix to Kavanaugh would imply that it's a joke to leftists and that's exactly the wrong message we need to be sending our people.
posted by sotonohito at 8:17 AM on October 7, 2018 [14 favorites]

From context, I believe mumimor was talking about attitudes in Denmark, not in the US. I will add, anecdotally, that when visiting Copenhagen in 2003, my Chinese-born wife encountered a lot of latent hostility, especially from older Danes, so I suspect there were already some built-up tensions around non-European immigrants in general by then.

Yes, I was talking about attitudes in Denmark, and the thing is, no one would have encountered racial hostility in Denmark before 1995, or at least whatever hostility they might have encountered would have been from obvious out-groups, which don't often interact with tourists. Before the -90's, it was normal for Chinese-Danes to be Conservative, for obvious reasons. (I'm not saying no Danes were racists before the -90's, but that racism was a strict taboo before the -90s because of holocaust. Danes were very proud of having saved the Jews). Also, the Princess (now countess something) Alexandra of Denmark is half-Chinese.

My point was not so much about Denmark, but about the strength of racism and of male vulnerability as a political driver. Regardless of where you are.

That said, I'm pretty certain that the diagnosis that Fox News appeared in early -96 is the correct one. Because tabloids and tv stations all over the world found inspiration in the Fox format.
posted by mumimor at 8:20 AM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

WSJ: GOP Operative Secretly Raised at Least $100,000 in Search for Clinton Emails; Opposition researcher’s efforts are of intense interest to investigators probing Russian election interference

"Mr. Smith’s effort to find what he believed were some 33,000 deleted emails Mrs. Clinton said were personal was first reported by the Journal in a 2017 story, but the extent of his planning went far beyond what was previously known."

Feels like we're getting pretty close to having all of the pieces of the puzzle.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 8:22 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

Attaching that suffix to Kavanaugh would imply that it's a joke to leftists and that's exactly the wrong message we need to be sending our people.

I agree with this in principle, but my point is that this may be the wrong question: the more urgent question is, what framing (or term or mocking neologism or whatever) will work? What method, means or tactics will stop those people from getting more power, and start getting power to better people who will work for the benefit of all? Because if messaging doesn't actually serve as catalyst to spur people to action, it's useless. We don't need to win hearts and minds, we need to win more votes.

The first concern--and one that's overlooked for otherwise really good reasons--should be simple efficacy. Until we have reliable answers to that question, I don't think any possible tools should be discarded. Would 'Kav-gazi' work, and start to change public opinion in order to seed the ground for getting Kavanaugh off the Court? Then it should be used. Because the things we've been using haven't been working, and the bad people are getting more power, not less.

I think what I'm expressing is not about Benghazi/Kavanaugh terms specifically (I personally think the whole nickname/sloganeering thing is dumb as dirt), but is more about a category of reaction that, in the arena of power, privileges thoughts and feelings over actions and shared reality. That's a luxury we maybe can't afford right now.

Also: I'm pretty certain that the diagnosis that Fox News appeared in early -96 is the correct one. Because tabloids and tv stations all over the world found inspiration in the Fox format.

This is accurate, but Fox News was a kind of apotheosis rather than first-mover: starting in 1987 or so, AM political talk radio emerged as an unexpected cultural force. Rush Limbaugh's show was nationally syndicated in 1988, and I clearly remember seeing "Dittohead" stickers everywhere soon after. Roger Ailes brilliantly translated that to TV screen and we were off to the races.
posted by LooseFilter at 8:37 AM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

We are calling for a strike from October 10 through October 12 to protest the illegitimate confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to SCOTUS. #StrikeAgainstKavanaugh
posted by The Whelk at 8:41 AM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

Booker, Biden, Deval Patrick, Garcetti, whoever else - sit the next one out!

Give the fucking floor to the women, you greedy, power-hungry pols
posted by growabrain at 8:45 AM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

Class Consciousness can sound like an airy academic term but it’s basicslly talking to people about what they need and their struggles, most people know they’re getting screwed. I’m not going to make anyone read Reform or Revolution, but I do want to impress the importance of giving a damn about actual daily struggles and the importance of seeing and naming the causes of struggle. I’m also going to recommend to anyone reading this, PRIMER RED, the short, easy to read introductions to leftist concepts and vocab by Midwestern Socialist. Very good, scroll down for part one. Moving from theory and books to giving people something to do is literally what we talk about when we talk about praxis.
posted by The Whelk at 8:46 AM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

Susan Collins would be retirement age in most careers and may well not run again in 2020; be nice to see some of that money and energy going to opponents of e.g. Cory Gardner--who only lost by a 2% margin to Democrat Udall in 2014, and whose state has radically changed since--or Mitch McConnell, who can't leave fast enough, is one of the wealthiest members of congress, and is generally enormously unpopular in his state (and really everywhere).
posted by aspersioncast at 8:47 AM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

That seems to me a writer's framing

And that seems to me, if you'll excuse me, little more than a way to dismiss the thing it is that I am feeling right now: the awful, gnawing, helpless frustration with people whose hearts (I assume) are in or close to the right place spinning wheels over what fucking hashtag it will take to ignite the masses, when someone who's a reasonable apotheosis of everything I despise in American life has just been confirmed, young, to a Supreme Court on which he will join a majority.

I'm finding this whole conversation...orthogonal, I guess? to the steps I think we could be taking to save ourselves. I'm clearly not communicating the nature of those steps very well or very clearly at the moment, here or elsewhere, and every time I open my gotdamn mouth it feels counterproductive. I think perhaps it's for the best if I step away for awhile.

Carry on, my good megathreadians! You have my deepest thanks for everything you've done to keep me sane over the past 23 months, and my most heartfelt wishes that you are able to take care of yourselves and each other amidst the thing that is bearing down on us.
posted by adamgreenfield at 8:52 AM on October 7, 2018 [33 favorites]

WSJ: GOP Operative Secretly Raised at Least $100,000 in Search for Clinton Emails; Opposition researcher’s efforts are of intense interest to investigators probing Russian election interference

They named their slush fund "the Washington Scholarship Fund for the Russian Students"?!?

According to an email in the “Robert Tyler” account reviewed by the Journal, Mr. Smith obtained $100,000 from at least four financiers as well as a $50,000 contribution from Mr. Smith himself. People familiar with Mr. Smith’s financial transactions confirm there were donations.

The email, dated Oct. 11, 2016, in the “Robert Tyler” account, included the subject line “Wire Instructions—Clinton Email Reconnaissance Initiative” and was addressed to Mr. Smith. The writer, who identified himself as “ROB, ” said: “This $100k total with the $50k received from you will allow us to fund the Washington Scholarship Fund for the Russian students for the promised $150K.” The Journal couldn’t determine if such a fund actually exists.

“The students are very pleased with the email releases they have seen, and are thrilled with their educational advancement opportunities,” the email read. Because multiple people had access to the “Robert Tyler” email account, it couldn’t be determined who sent the email to Mr. Smith.

And the timing couldn't be more suspicious: "The email about obtaining the pledges came just days after WikiLeaks and the website DCLeaks began releasing emails damaging to Mrs. Clinton’s campaign and four days after the U.S. government publicly warned that Russia was attempting to interfere in the U.S. election through the hacking and release of stolen emails and doing so at the direction of the Kremlin’s “senior-most officials.”"
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:53 AM on October 7, 2018 [17 favorites]

Susan Collins is on CNN basically repeating the Ed Whelan doppelganger theory and saying that's what convinced her.

So all the hand wringing Republicans did over Whelan...they ended up adopting his story wholesale.

The messaging from Republicans on the whole "mistaken identity" thing is so transparently gross. "Look, we're gonna push Kavanaugh through anyway, but we're giving a phony head-nod to your 'believe women' thing. Isn't that good enough for you?"

All the takes on Republicans' strategy and Democrat missteps are a bunch of gaslighting bullshit, too. Republicans were always going to push Kavanaugh through. He could have confessed in that hearing and they would've voted for him. This stuff about Republicans being fired up by this fight and Dems screwing it up is more noise to encourage protest votes to undermine Democrats. Same old bullshit. Doesn't deserve oxygen.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 9:03 AM on October 7, 2018 [21 favorites]

@MichaelAvenatti
The Court must be expanded to 11 seats and it can be done under the law. Any Dem that does not commit to expanding the Court has no business running for the nomination. There is far too much at stake.

Sleazy scummo as he is, Avenatti's 3 am tweet has more backbone than the entire Democratic Party apparatus.
posted by Rust Moranis at 9:06 AM on October 7, 2018 [58 favorites]

The hashtag derail is deeply upsetting to me. I exist outside the internet. The trauma the confirmation has caused me, and countless other survivors, is real and raw. Quibbling over a fucking hashtag is a luxury and privilege I do not have time for. Not the mental time, not the physical time. Asking for it to be dropped.
posted by Ruki at 9:18 AM on October 7, 2018 [112 favorites]

Could not agree more with Ruki.
posted by lazaruslong at 9:20 AM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

The mistaken identity thing is appealing to these sleaze because it allows them to put on a “listen to women” cloak while still forwarding the idea that the things women say shouldn’t be believed. A show of compassion is a small price to pay if it can be a judo move on believeing survivors. Okay we will believe them that something happened but the poor weak little dears shouldn’t be considered sources of credible facts.

Shit, it lines up great with the whole thing where women who have and like sex are sluts while completely ignoring the question of who they’re having that sex with. Obviously there is just a couple of misguided women providing the action for those poor well-meaning boys who were enticed into sin and there’s just a few doppelgänger rapists who happen to look like fine upstanding guys who wouldn’t ever be the ones who did that awful thing.
posted by phearlez at 9:21 AM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

And that seems to me, if you'll excuse me, little more than a way to dismiss the thing it is that I am feeling right now

I sincerely apologize if my comments dismissed or diminished yours--or anyone's--feelings, and I hope that your anger and frustration with events beyond our control don't lead you to stop your fantastic participation in these conversations. I think all of us, at least in this particular conversation, are feeling things pretty deeply, and feeling deeply helpless to do anything about it all. (we are all middle management now?)
posted by LooseFilter at 9:22 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

In a Guardian article about Beto O'Rourke's chances in Texas, was this bit at the end that I can't get out of my head:

Sebastian Esquivel, 21, is one of the cooks in the family business. He has never voted in his life, and in his extended family of about 20 relatives in Gonzales – US citizens every one – he knows of but one who has ever cast a ballot.

Esquivel does not recognise the names of Beto O’Rourke or Ted Cruz, and cannot identify their respective parties. “To be honest, to me it doesn’t really matter,” he says.

What does matter?

“My family and me. Putting food on the table, paying bills.”

posted by maggiemaggie at 9:25 AM on October 7, 2018 [32 favorites]

Seconded. The only use these cute hashtags have is for "othering" the opponent.

Now, granted, it is long past time that our side starts in with serious othering. This is war, and we are losing badly. With Kavanaugh's appointment, it is quite possible that we have actually lost entirely, and very very likely that we've lost for the next few decades. (It all depends on how far they're going to take the fascism, and we have very little remaining say in the matter.)

But don't quibble about dumb hashtags. If you wanna call them RAPEublicans, go for it, but whatever. Don't waste your political energy on deciding *which* cute insult you're going to use.

In other news, a nice lady in Texas has had her political sign confiscated by the police.
A Texas yard sign depicted a GOP elephant with its trunk up a girl’s skirt. Police seized it.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:27 AM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

In a Guardian article about Beto O'Rourke's chances in Texas, was this bit at the end that I can't get out of my head:

If you’re using electoralism, there’s your target demographic, how can you make life better, how can you improve the material conditions, of Sebastian Esquivel?
posted by The Whelk at 9:37 AM on October 7, 2018 [19 favorites]

A general strike? Ain't no way anyone living paycheck to paycheck is going on strike for three days to protest something that will not directly affect them.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 9:39 AM on October 7, 2018 [20 favorites]

But how do you get Sebastian Esquivel's attention long enough to communicate your message, and how is that most pithily and effectively communicated to him and folks like him? These outcomes require technical expertise and skill that the Democratic Party has yet to discover, and I think are more salient and urgent needs than what specific message is best.
posted by LooseFilter at 9:45 AM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

Vox: A leading Holocaust historian just seriously compared the US to Nazi Germany with quotes from "The Suffocation of Democracy" by Christopher R. Browning in the New York Review of Books.

If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell. He stoked the hyperpolarization of American politics to make the Obama presidency as dysfunctional and paralyzed as he possibly could.

[...]

Whatever secret reservations McConnell and other traditional Republican leaders have about Trump’s character, governing style, and possible criminality, they openly rejoice in the payoff they have received from their alliance with him and his base: huge tax cuts for the wealthy, financial and environmental deregulation, the nominations of two conservative Supreme Court justices (so far) and a host of other conservative judicial appointments, and a significant reduction in government-sponsored health care (though not yet the total abolition of Obamacare they hope for). Like Hitler’s conservative allies, McConnell and the Republicans have prided themselves on the early returns on their investment in Trump.

posted by jgirl at 9:46 AM on October 7, 2018 [51 favorites]

That's not how it was decided. Kavanaugh was the most unpopular SCOTUS nominee of all time, and more so the longer the confirmation process went on. He would not have gotten confirmed if it had been decided by the populace...

Just noting that I think this is based on a misread of what my comment said. The decision was never in the people's hands, but the Senate's moves were informed by the information gathered during the week of "investigation" that told them pretty clearly that pushing this through would work fine, and they'd have plenty of support. That's what the week gave them. It was decided by the people, but indirectly, in the people's general signalling and in the opinion research that showed that even if the majority people didn't like this Kavanaugh business, they basically weren't going to be too serious about doing anything about it. The GOP took the nation's temperature, and it just wasn't that hot, so they pushed on.
posted by Miko at 9:46 AM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

By all means, compare the USA to Nazi Germany. Getting Kavanaugh confirmed is going to end up being our version of passing the Enabling Act of 1933.
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:49 AM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

Esquivel does not recognise the names of Beto O’Rourke or Ted Cruz, and cannot identify their respective parties. “To be honest, to me it doesn’t really matter,” he says.

What does matter?

“My family and me. Putting food on the table, paying bills.”

This drives me nuts. I'm not mad at him, I'm just exasperated with a society that teaches him and millions like him that there's a difference.
posted by Pope Guilty at 9:53 AM on October 7, 2018 [36 favorites]

back in the early 20th century an adman named Edward Bernays (who happened to be a nephew of Sigmund Freud, but never mind that) wrote a book about the methods of persuasion he developed and deployed while working for major corporations and the U.S government. He titled this book Propaganda, a term that didn’t have the same negative connotations that it has today.

It’s been a while since I’ve read it, but one of the main takeaways is that you don’t persuade people by telling them why they should do something or buy something. Instead, you persuade people by arranging their environment such that doing what you want them to do seems like their own idea, or like good common sense, or just generally as an inevitability.

At one point Bernays was hired by the leading American piano manufacturer at the time. Instead of running ads touting the superiority of their pianos, he sponsored top-flight architects to design suburban homes that included music rooms. Their designs influenced the designs of less-renowned architects, and after a few years a bunch of upper middle class people found themselves with houses with music rooms (music rooms are all the rage! all the best people have music rooms in their houses!)

You’re middling rich and you’ve got a penchant for keeping up with the joneses. You’ve got a house with a music room. It’s now a practical inevitability that you buy a piano — and more likely than not you buy it from Bernays’s employer.

So here’s some lessons. It’s not about finding the right cute catchphrase or whatever. You’re not trying to discover the next “If I could buy the world a Coke” and you’re not trying to launch it as a twitter hashtag. Instead you’re trying to get people to think that agreeing with you was their own idea, or just common sense.

This requires thinking in the long term, sometimes the extreme long term. Really, I think if you want to make a real contribution as an individual to promoting the democratic party, or social liberalism, or leftism, the best thing you can do is have a really good time being a democrat or a liberal or a leftist, in community with other democrats or liberals or leftists. Go out and have fun. and keep doing it. Live excellently. Be excellent to others. People will notice.

No, really, do it. I’m talking to myself as much as I’m talking to you.

The thing I’d add to the Bernays framework is (wait for it)... materialist analysis. straightforward Marxist stuff. people tend to do things if they’re incentivized to do those things. If your paycheck or your social network depends on you being low-key a neonazi, you’re going to be at least a low-key neonazi. If your prosperity depends on you being a Mormon, believing and doing the things Mormons do, you’re going to believe and do the things Mormons do. And if socialists are in real terms indispensable to your community — if they’re distributing meals to elders, if they’re throwing fun parties (no pun intended), if they’re providing legal support when your boss sexually harasses you, if they hook you up with paying gigs when you get laid off, if they let you crash on their couches when your landlord jacks up the rent — then likely you’re going to “independently” decide that socialism is a good idea.

It’s not cheap and it’s not easy, but in the long term it wins hearts and minds.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 10:10 AM on October 7, 2018 [128 favorites]

One term that’s used to describe this method of persuasion, the method where you just go ahead and start doing the awesome things you want everyone to do, is “prefigurative politics.” It’s useful to read about if you want to be an organizer.

Note: just because a concept (prefigurative politics, materialist analysis, whatever) is useful to you as an organizer does NOT mean that that’s how you should talk about it when you’re out doing it. Talk about it with your compatriots, have intense discussions about it over beers, maybe have a good time while you’re doing it (cause it’s fun, right? and it’s good to be seen having fun), but don’t tell people “hey come over we’re gonna do some prefigurative politics!” Instead (and this is an example of a thing that DSA gets right) say “hey we’re fixing brake lights come on over if yours are busted.”
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 10:23 AM on October 7, 2018 [29 favorites]

Bernays is the focus of Adam Curtis' unmissable Century of the Self (previously, and previouslier+marxism.)
posted by progosk at 10:25 AM on October 7, 2018 [14 favorites]

FACEBOOK’S JOEL KAPLAN and his wife LAURA COX KAPLAN hosted a Kavanaugh celebration at their house last night for people who had worked on his nomination.

Zuckerberg chose this guy to be the Facebook's VP of Global Public Policy. So that says something about Facebook's and Zuckerberg's policies as Zuckerberg continues to defend him.
posted by JackFlash at 11:11 AM on October 7, 2018 [51 favorites]

Lindsey Graham Is the Saddest Story in Washington

But Graham is special. He really is. I can’t think of another Republican whose journey from anti-Trump outrage to pro-Trump obsequiousness was quite so illogical or half as sad, and his conduct during the war over Kavanaugh completed it. For the president he fought overtime, he fought nasty and he fought without nuance.

In so doing, he distilled our rotten politics — its transactional nature, its tribal fury, its hysterical pitch — as neatly as anybody in the current Congress does.
...
That’s the sad part I mentioned. And this is the absolutely pathetic twist: McCain, battling brain cancer, stopped spending much time in Washington, and as his health deteriorated, Graham’s ardor and cheerleading for Trump intensified. McCain, you see, wasn’t just Graham’s friend. He was his road to greater relevance. And Trump presented a veritable expressway. So Graham switched vehicles and directions, and pressed the pedal to the metal.

posted by kirkaracha at 11:27 AM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

The #StrikeAgainstKavanaugh is specifically a call to action for law students and people in law professions, although the thread says that the general public is also welcome to participate.
posted by Autumnheart at 11:46 AM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

[WaPo] Will the Democrats Wake Up Before 2020?
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 11:57 AM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

Ryan Goodman has a very high quality thread on the WSJ's Peter Smith story. It puts the story into context: the links between what Smith was doing and Flynn/the Trump campaign and previous reporting that intelligence agencies identified Russian hackers discussing passing Clinton emails to Flynn via an unspecified intermediary.

One of the most notable things in this new story is that it somewhat raises the possibility of foul play in Smith's death, citing a positive phone call with Smith a few hours before. And of course, there's the "Washington Scholarship Fund for the Russian students," which is ring-all-the-alarms-at-once kind of suspicious.
posted by zachlipton at 12:02 PM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

Esquivel does not recognise the names of Beto O’Rourke or Ted Cruz, and cannot identify their respective parties. “To be honest, to me it doesn’t really matter,” he says.

What does matter?

“My family and me. Putting food on the table, paying bills.”


My mental response...

Oh, then you’re going to love Beto! He’s in favor of all of the things that will make our society safer, healthier, and more worker- and family-supportive.

Beto favors strong public schools and lower college tuition costs, so your kids get the best education possible. Beto favors workplace protections, so your employer can’t exploit you or fire you without cause. Beto favors minimum wage increases, so you and your family can earn a decent wage. Beto favors universal access to health care and insurance, so you can keep your family healthy, and your insurance company can’t kick you off the plan once you get sick, so you won’t have to file bankruptcy due to medical expenses. Beto supports strong protections on food safety, water purity, and air quality, so you and your family can grow up safe and healthy. Beto supports financial regulations, so the banks can’t crash the economy again and harm your family.

Oh, I could go on, and on. But every one of those things that Beto supports — issues to help provide a safe, healthy and supportive environment for you to raise your family, put food on the table, and pay the bills — Cruz opposes.

Now does it matter?
posted by darkstar at 12:07 PM on October 7, 2018 [50 favorites]

Eliot Weinberger, "Ten Typical Days in Trump's America" (LRB)

As dozens of lagoons of pig waste overflow in North Carolina, President Trump says that Hurricane Florence is ‘one of the wettest we’ve ever seen, from the standpoint of water’. (In North Carolina 9.7 million pigs produce ten billion gallons of manure a year.)

President Trump says: ‘I hope to be able put this up as one of my crowning achievements that I was able to expose something that is truly a cancer in our country.’ He is referring to the FBI.

Pornography star Stormy Daniels provides a detailed description of Donald Trump’s penis. Although Trump had bragged about the size of his member in the primary debates and in campaign speeches, Daniels, based on her professional expertise, laughingly refutes this.

Hurricane Florence causes basins containing more than two million cubic yards of coal ash – enough to fill a large sports stadium – to spill into the Cape Fear River and the surrounding lowlands. (The many hundreds of coal ash basins in the US were regulated under Obama and have been deregulated under Trump. Coal ash, the residue from burning coal, contains lead, mercury, selenium, arsenic, cadmium, chromium and boron, and is known to lead to cancer, neurological conditions and reproductive problems in humans, and bizarre deformities in fish. Among those promoting the deregulation was Andrew Wheeler, for many years a lobbyist for Murray Energy, the US’s largest coal-mining company. He is now the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. In his first speech in his new position, Wheeler said: ‘I get frustrated with the media when they report I was a coal lobbyist.’)

It is revealed that President Trump told a visiting group of Spanish ministers that Spain should build a wall across the entire Sahara desert to keep out refugees.

Testifying before a Senate subcommittee, Matthew Albence, deputy director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), reasserts his earlier statement that the child migrant detention centres are like ‘summer camp’: ‘There’re basketball courts, exercise classes, soccer fields …’ He doesn’t answer when asked if he’d send his own children to one. (There are now nearly 13,000 children in the camps. Like the camps for adults, they are mostly run by for-profit businesses, all of which were major corporate donors to the Trump campaign and inauguration. The price of their stocks has soared in the last two years. The largest of them, Geo Group, which imprisons one-third of the more than 300,000 immigrant detainees, held its 2017 annual conference at the Trump National Doral Golf Club in Miami.)
To pay for the camps, the Trump administration announces that it is diverting tens of millions of dollars that had been committed to cancer and Aids research, women’s shelters, and programmes devoted to mental health, maternal health, early education and substance abuse.

And on and on [numerous examples follow]…
posted by standardasparagus at 1:03 PM on October 7, 2018 [30 favorites]

In the past few days, China has disappeared two prominent citizens, Russia has killed a prosecutor, and Saudi Arabia has apparently murdered a journalist in one of its consulates.
In the old days a US administration would’ve cared about these things & that would have mattered
posted by growabrain at 1:29 PM on October 7, 2018 [56 favorites]

Saudi Arabia has apparently murdered a journalist in one of its consulates. In the old days a US administration would’ve cared about these things

The US administration does care about a government murdering and dismembering a journalist with impunity: it likes it.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:31 PM on October 7, 2018 [14 favorites]

The Bulgarian TV journalist Viktoria Marinova was brutally murdered, her body was found on Saturday in the city Ruse.
And Dutch privacy activist and infosec specialist Arjen Kamphuis went missing in Norway over a month ago and has not been found.

This timeline sucks.
posted by Too-Ticky at 1:44 PM on October 7, 2018 [25 favorites]

be nice to see some of that money and energy going to opponents of e.g. Cory Gardner--who only lost by a 2% margin to Democrat Udall in 2014, and whose state has radically changed since

A fundraising effort for Gardner's eventual opponent was started yesterday or Friday. Several of my Colorado friends and I have already committed to working (after November 6th, we're prioritizing) as hard as we can to see Gardner defeated in 2020 and have told him so. I'm wary of predictions, but I'm encouraged by how much Indivisible groups in Denver have done in CO-6 (Coffman is one of the Republicans whose national funding was cut off last month), and hoping we can make Cory a one-term wonder.
posted by danielleh at 1:50 PM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

SEN. SUSAN COLLINS: "The one silver lining that I hope will come from this is that more women will press charges now, when they are assaulted," the Maine Republican tells @FaceTheNation

"If only Ford had reported her attempted rape earlier I wouldn't be putting this rapist on the Supreme Court" is the most charitable interpretation.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:53 PM on October 7, 2018 [51 favorites]

I have a technical question RE the WSJ article:

If Mueller has access to this pseudonymous GMail account of "Robert Tyler" (used by Peter Smith and collaborators for "foldering"¹), does he also have Google logs that show who, or which IP addresses, posted these Draft messages?

If so, that would be nice.

¹ --- Just like Manafort, by the way
posted by pjenks at 2:01 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

aha ha ha I thought I hated Collins before but it turns out that my capacity for additional hatred is there and ready to engage.
posted by angrycat at 2:06 PM on October 7, 2018 [46 favorites]

flabdablet: The start of the current slide into far-right craziness can be pinpointed with extreme precision. It began 22 years ago (to the day, as it happens!) on October 7, 1996.

Happy 22nd birthday, Fox News! You lost CEO Roger Ailes and star Bill O'Reilly to sex assault charges, but you gave us sex assaulters as Speaker of the House (Dennis Hastert is just out of prison), President, and now a Supreme Court justice. It's a trifecta - what a proud legacy!
posted by RedOrGreen at 2:09 PM on October 7, 2018 [13 favorites]

Hickenlooper seems like he's setting his sights on the Presidential race in 2020. I'd rather see a woman run for Gardner's seat, but not sure who that might be.
posted by danielleh at 2:10 PM on October 7, 2018

Waiting for SCOTUS : By fixating on the Supreme Court, liberals have inherited the framers’ skepticism of popular sovereignty and mass politics.
posted by The Whelk at 2:19 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

By fixating on the Supreme Court, liberals have inherited the framers’ skepticism of popular sovereignty and mass politics

this seems like a really weird take given how republicans have been the party fixated on the supreme court since before the reagan era, to the extent of having a slate of 20+ Federalist Society candidates at the ready whenever Ruth Bader Ginsberg coughs especially loudly.
posted by murphy slaw at 2:48 PM on October 7, 2018 [11 favorites]

Even in these Trumpy times I think a President Hickenlooper is pretty far-fetched. We don't really do silly-named presidents.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:04 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

We don't really do silly-named presidents.

A really long time ago we had one whose middle name was Hussein.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:07 PM on October 7, 2018 [16 favorites]

Reuters: Brazil exit polls point to wave of support for right-winger

Pre-election polls appear to have enormously underestimated Bolsonaro's odds. The fascist wave is reaching Brazil.
posted by Rust Moranis at 3:14 PM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

Hick's name is goofy, but I think his positioning as a moderate Dem who's pro-business is the harder to overcome part. I don't find him particularly charismatic and I'm still annoyed that he and Kasich floated the idea of a "unity" ticket. Although that's not happening, it was still a dumb idea. (I don't mean to get too far off topic, that's the last I've got on Hickenlooper.)
posted by danielleh at 3:32 PM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

We don't really do silly-named presidents.

That's right. Really, what's so silly about a president named Johnson? Or Bush?
posted by SPrintF at 3:38 PM on October 7, 2018 [3 favorites]

It strikes me that both global tides of fascism followed the proliferation of radically new methods of communication: radio, and then the internet.

Favourited, though I'd disagree - Italian Fascism was well on its way (mid-1910's - early 1920's) by the time of the first real public broadcasts anywhere (early-mid 20's; everything up until then had been amateur enthusiasts). Specifically, in Italy public broadcasting didn't start until 1924 (the anniversary was just a few days ago!) - and it was launched with a speech by Mussolini, who by that time had already led the Fascist uprising and been PM for 2 years.

But - if you can establish a pattern from a single previous event - the first-run Fascists were among the first to both recognise and use the power of the new medium, and you can certainly draw parallels with that now. As LooseFilter suggests earlier, it's probably more that they - then and now - were particularly adept at using the latest technology at hand to amplify their message.

(There's other things in common too. Like the belief held by the early enthusiasts and experimenters of each time that 'oh no, it's only a force for good - nobody would use it for bad, and if they do we can stop them before it becomes a real problem'.

But, in my best Ron Howard, narrator, voice: "No - they couldn't"…)
posted by Pinback at 3:47 PM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

@nedprice
The Saudis appear to have murdered a US resident (& a @washingtonpost contributor). The Chinese have arrested the head of INTERPOL. The Russians have used chem weapons on UK soil, etc.

The worst impulses of brutal regimes are coming fwd bc/ no one is standing up against them.

Not be alarmist, but all the shit that people said was alarmist back in 2016 appears to be happening.
posted by Artw at 3:50 PM on October 7, 2018 [67 favorites]

As LooseFilter suggests earlier, it's probably more that they - then and now - were particularly adept at using the latest technology at hand to amplify their message.


I’d say that they are particularly adept at manipulating Social Media because the flaws of Social Media - the loudest and dumbest thing gets promoted most, algorithms are all dumb as fuck and easily gameable by anyone who cares to do it, moderation likewise easily gamed and only able to work on the dumbest, most surface scratching level, all line up to their advantage. And the social media companies have all, to some degree, been complicit by at times ignoring, encouraging or profiting off of this.
posted by Artw at 3:54 PM on October 7, 2018 [9 favorites]

I don't know how to search these threads for this question but how often do the justices have to socialize with each other? If this guy harasses one of the women on the court, or shows up drunk or something, do they have any recourse?
posted by Rufous-headed Towhee heehee at 4:08 PM on October 7, 2018

@arirabinhavt
Brett Kavanaugh celebrated his confirmation last night at a party at the home of Facebook’s top lobbyist.

Google is one of the Federalist Society’s largest donors.

Next time conservatives claim tech companies are biased against them, please laugh in their faces.
posted by Artw at 4:24 PM on October 7, 2018 [57 favorites]

- Democrat Booker, fresh from Kavanaugh vote, makes Iowa debut (Des Moines Register) (Has inbedded clip of full 45-minute speech)

-- Cory Booker just gave the speech of his life to Iowa Democrats. Here's how they reacted. (NJ.com) (Hey, Booker's grandmother lived in Iowa!)

--- An Unmistakable Sign Kamala Harris Is Running in 2020 (The Atlantic) (Harris is planning a trip to Iowa later this month)

(Harris also sent an aide to assist Abby Finkenauer's campaign, in Iowa's 1st Congressional District.)
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:52 PM on October 7, 2018 [26 favorites]

The disastrous choices journalists are making in the wake of Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation (Matt Gertz, MediaMatters)

A scathing piece about the Kavanaugh coverage that concludes with

Pay close attention to the incentives this coverage creates for Trump. He demeaned a woman who says she was sexually assaulted to the cheers of his supporters, and some of the nation’s most powerful journalists rewarded him by saying he had the best week of his presidency and suggesting that his opposition’s flaws had been just as bad.

It’s hard to imagine that a president so attuned to media coverage and so eager for praise from major news outlets won’t take that as encouragement.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 5:50 PM on October 7, 2018 [50 favorites]

Does Scotus have a quourum requirement by law? could our 4 halt proceedings via absence?

Each escalation in breaking our system is needed to defeat the political adversary but pushes us closer to not having a working government or one that is wholly a one party state
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 6:30 PM on October 7, 2018

Taylor Swift pens a nice little Instagram post about her political beliefs, which she's been somewhat coy about before, and endorses Democrats Phil Bredesen for Senate and Jim Cooper for House of Representatives in Tennessee.
posted by octothorpe at 6:43 PM on October 7, 2018 [31 favorites]

Quorum tricks will not save us.

The only thing that will save us peacefully is winning elections even in the face of structural and anti-democratic disadvantages. And those are considerable. Republicans picked up 60 House and 6 Senate seats in 2010 by wining the generic ballot by 7 points. Doing the same in 2018 would mean Democrats might not pick up the House and would lose 1-3 seats in the Senate. That's how bad it is.

And yet we have to do it anyway unless we want to move down the list of the 4 boxes.
posted by Justinian at 6:46 PM on October 7, 2018 [11 favorites]

I take back anything bad I ever said about Taylor Swift's music and am now a fan.

*cues up Blank Space*
posted by Justinian at 6:47 PM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

- Democrat Booker, fresh from Kavanaugh vote, makes Iowa debut (Des Moines Register) (Has inbedded clip of full 45-minute speech)

wow wow wow. This is worth watching particularly if you, like many of us, are still reeling from the past week.

here's a repost of the link.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:51 PM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

Taylor Swift may reach a whole load of apolitical/apathetic voters. Good for her she'll probably get flak for it.
posted by gaspode at 6:54 PM on October 7, 2018 [33 favorites]

The only thing that will save us peacefully is...

Sorry -- when is the "peacefully" part supposed to start?
posted by chortly at 7:12 PM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

> Taylor Swift may reach a whole load of apolitical/apathetic voters. Good for her she'll probably get flak for it.

I am really, really looking forward to seeing the fits pitched by the alt-righters who think of her as their aryan princess.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 7:15 PM on October 7, 2018 [44 favorites]

Who cares what Lebron thinks about Trump? I was asked this and I said that Lebron has a poster on the wall in maybe a million bedrooms. He's this generation's Mike. I wanna be like Mike Lebron!

Tay has a million posters too. People are going to dismiss her opinion for a bunch of gross reasons, but only because they know how influential she is.

How important is Willie being on stage with Beto? Willie, Tay, Lebron and others, Beyonce, Gaga, they can reach people who otherwise DGAF.

I thoroughly endorse Taylor Swift's endorsement.

May the MAGAhats forever feel uncomfortable when they turn on the radio.
posted by adept256 at 7:16 PM on October 7, 2018 [31 favorites]

no it's democracy
posted by The otter lady at 7:27 PM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

Sen Brian Schatz:

One of our highest medium term priorities must be to enfranchise - to empower, Americans in Puerto Rico, DC, Guam, American Samoa with full representation in Congress and to allow formerly incarcerated individuals to vote.

Schatz is a member of Dem leadership. I've been skeptical Dems would ever get off their butts about DC statehood, but I think it's coming.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:35 PM on October 7, 2018 [42 favorites]

If it's going to happen it needs to happen between 2020 and 2022. Every year that passes after 2020 means it will be harder to get a majority in the Senate. So this should be perhaps the first major push by a Democratic government if we capture the Presidency in 2020.
posted by Justinian at 7:39 PM on October 7, 2018 [6 favorites]

Ethics complaints have been filed against Kavanaugh in the DC Circuit, including at least one claiming he lied about the sexual assault allegations against him. For now, they're under the purview of DC Circuit Chief Judge — Merrick Garland.

Among my neighborhood of the social networks this has been shared with great relish, but there's no way Garland can be impartial about this, and he knows it, so he's being all ethical 'n shit and recusing himself.

Sebastian Esquivel, 21, is one of the cooks in the family business. He has never voted in his life, and in his extended family of about 20 relatives in Gonzales – US citizens every one – he knows of but one who has ever cast a ballot.

Esquivel does not recognise the names of Beto O’Rourke or Ted Cruz, and cannot identify their respective parties. “To be honest, to me it doesn’t really matter,” he says.

Someone named "Esquivel" shirking their responsibilities as citizens is at least mildly eponysterical.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 7:45 PM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

Yeah, if you're doing it at all, do it first, so you get those extra votes.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:45 PM on October 7, 2018 [2 favorites]

This American Life: Zoe Chace followed Senator Jeff Flake as he decided to force the Senate to delay its vote on Judge Kavanaugh.
posted by jenfullmoon at 7:48 PM on October 7, 2018 [4 favorites]

I know it's the right thing to do, but I hate that Garland recused himself when you know that Kavanaugh sure as shit is not going to recuse himself if the Supreme Court hears any case against the President.
posted by Ruki at 7:53 PM on October 7, 2018 [5 favorites]

Among my neighborhood of the social networks this has been shared with great relish, but there's no way Garland can be impartial about this, and he knows it, so he's being all ethical 'n shit and recusing himself.

Why can't Garland be impartial about this? That makes no sense. The seat stolen from Garland was Gorsuch, not Kavanaugh. Is he supposed to recuse himself from anything having to do with Trump or the Republican Party for the rest of his life? The judge the case is being passed to is a GW Bush appointee. Is she unbiased?

By the way, if the situation were reversed, no Republican would ever recuse himself. As pointed out previously Scalia went on a hunting vacation with Cheney in a private jet at the very moment the court was deciding the case Cheney v. U.S. District Court. And Scalia eventually ruled in favor of Cheney.
posted by JackFlash at 7:57 PM on October 7, 2018 [22 favorites]

Kavanaugh worked directly under Merrick Garland. Merrick was Kavanaugh's boss. If Merrick doesn't have feelings about Kavanaugh's nomination, he's not human.
posted by xammerboy at 8:00 PM on October 7, 2018 [13 favorites]

Just a reminder: the system in what is currently known as the US isn’t “broken.” It was designed by male white supremacist slaveowners on stolen Indigenous land to protect their interests. It’s working as it was designed
posted by growabrain at 8:01 PM on October 7, 2018 [49 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 Senate:

-- TX: YouGov poll has GOP incumbent Cruz up 50-44 on Dem O'Rourke [MOE: +/- 4.2%].

-- AZ: YouGov poll has Dem Sinema up 47-44 on GOPer McSally [MOE: +/- 3.6%].

-- TN: YouGov poll has GOPer Blackburn up 50-42 on Dem Bredesen [MOE: +/- 3.6%].

-- NJ: YouGov poll has Dem incumbent Menendez up 49-39 on GOPer Hugin [MOE: +/- 3.9%].

** 2018 House:

-- NC-09: Siena poll has GOPer Harris up 47-42 on Dem McCready [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 54-43 | Cook: Tossup]

-- MI-11: Siena poll has Dem Stevens up 45-38 on GOPer Epstein [MOE: +/- 5.0%]. [Trump 50-45 | Cook: Lean D]

-- TX-31: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Carter up 53-38 on Dem Hegar [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 54-41 | Cook: Lean R]

-- Cohn: Range of possible outcomes still remains quite wide.

-- Nathan Gonzales: Why surprise race results happen.

-- Now that we're 30 days out, I'll start posting the 538 generic average daily. Currently D+7.8 (49.2/41.4).

** Odds & ends:

-- KS gov: Remington poll has Dem Kelly at 42, GOPer Kobach at 41, Orman at 10 [MOE: +/- 2.40%]. [Cook: Tossup]

-- Glengariff Group poll shows high support for Michigan ballot initiatives. Proposal 1 (recreational pot) YES 62-35; Proposal 2 (independent redistricting commission) YES 55-23, Proposal 3 (multiple voting reforms) YES 72-19 [MOE: +/- 4.0%]. => These initiatives could be a big deal going forward, to the tune of a couple D seats.

-- Looks like redistricting for the Virginia House of Delegates will be handled by a court special master, after (unsurprisingly) the parties couldn't agree on a map. This will likely aid the Dems in their quest to flip the HOD in 2019.

posted by Chrysostom at 8:22 PM on October 7, 2018 [15 favorites]

Why I’m Leaving the Republican Party (NeverTrumper Tom Nichols, The Atlantic)

Small things sometimes matter, and Collins is among the smallest of things in the political world. And yet, she helped me finally to accept what I had been denying. Her speech on the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh convinced me that the Republican Party now exists for one reason, and one reason only: for the exercise of raw political power, and not even for ends I would otherwise applaud or even support. […]

As an aside, let me say that I have no love for the Democratic Party, which is torn between totalitarian instincts on one side and complete political malpractice on the other. As a newly minted independent, I will vote for Democrats and Republicans I think are decent and well-meaning people; if I move back home to Massachusetts, I could cast a ballot for Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Democratic Representative Joe Kennedy and not think twice about it.

But during the Kavanaugh dumpster fire, the performance of the Democratic Party—with some honorable exceptions like Senators Chris Coons, Sheldon Whitehouse, and Amy Klobuchar—was execrable. From the moment they leaked the Ford letter, they were a Keystone Cops operation, with Hawaii’s Senator Mazie Hirono willing to wave away the Constitution and get right to a presumption of guilt, and Senator Dianne Feinstein looking incompetent and outflanked instead of like the ranking member of one of the most important committees in America.

The Republicans, however, have now eclipsed the Democrats as a threat to the rule of law and to the constitutional norms of American society. They have become all about winning. Winning means not losing, and so instead of acting like a co-equal branch of government responsible for advice and consent, congressional Republicans now act like a parliamentary party facing the constant threat of a vote of no-confidence.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 8:27 PM on October 7, 2018 [7 favorites]

Just emailed a friend who works at Facebook (super progressive, just got back from canvassing in Modesto, which he says was depressing) to suggest that one of the best things that could happen to the country right now would be a unionization effort in his workplace. Also that despite all the sweet HR programs it would be great for him, too, because at the end of the day he's a peon to management.

His response: "I don't think we're peons to management."

Apparently the propaganda is strong with FB employees.
posted by Lyme Drop at 8:27 PM on October 7, 2018 [30 favorites]

Also, from twitter: This is a terrible time to be named Brett Kavanagh. (Via)
posted by growabrain at 8:31 PM on October 7, 2018 [8 favorites]

As an aside, let me say that I have no love for the Democratic Party, which is torn between totalitarian instincts on one side and complete political malpractice on the other. As a newly minted independent, I will vote for Democrats and Republicans I think are decent and well-meaning people; if I move back home to Massachusetts, I could cast a ballot for Republican Governor Charlie Baker and Democratic Representative Joe Kennedy and not think twice about it.

Welcome to the #resistance, guy who thinks wanting laws and a basic social safety net are totalitarian instincts and who will definitely vote almost entirely for Republicans!
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:32 PM on October 7, 2018 [68 favorites]

FYI nichols is a grade A asshole who simultaneously criticized people for using something Kavanaugh did when he was 17 against him and defended the killings of unarmed black teens.

If you were ok with what Republicans were before Trump but not after, I don’t know what to tell you, but you were probably always an asshole.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 8:33 PM on October 7, 2018 [38 favorites]

It's impressive and telling how not a single goddamned one of these public-figure GOP "converts" will simply say "I have decided that the GOP sucks and I will identify as a Democrat and mostly vote for Democrats." It would be SO EASY to do that. But without exception they simply must find some way to make sure to tell us what ghouls they really are. They're constitutionally incapable of actually putting on the Democratic costume.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:43 PM on October 7, 2018 [11 favorites]

I mean, obvious statement: 99% of loudly identified independents in media vote in lockstep with Republicans.

"Independent" is a transparent ploy to be a Republican in all but name but never have to be held responsible for their most extreme policies.
posted by tocts at 8:50 PM on October 7, 2018 [48 favorites]

Mazie Hirono willing to wave away the Constitution and get right to a presumption of guilt

oh fuck off, that's not what the Constitution says at all
posted by BungaDunga at 9:04 PM on October 7, 2018 [34 favorites]

The “innocent until proven guilty” thing makes sense from the perspective of absolute privilege: confirmation was something Kavanaugh was entitled to and if he were denied confirmation it would effectively be a punishment without trial. The Republicans were very clear about the enormity of this, which is why they engaged a prosecutor to cross-examine the victim, but not her (alleged) rapist: she was the one doing something wrong.
posted by Joe in Australia at 9:46 PM on October 7, 2018 [27 favorites]

Due process : Kavanaugh hearings :: free speech : posting racist minion memes on Facebook
posted by theodolite at 9:53 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

Kavanaugh worked directly under Merrick Garland. Merrick was Kavanaugh's boss. If Merrick doesn't have feelings about Kavanaugh's nomination, he's not human.

And the judge replacing Garland is a colleague of Kavanaugh in the same court. How is that better? Does she have no feelings regarding her colleague she works with every day?

And Garland is just the chief judge. He is no more the boss of Kavanaugh than John Roberts is the boss of Ruth Bader Ginsberg. I presume that if there were an ethics issue on the Supreme Court, that Chief Justice Roberts, as the most senior, would be the logical person to investigate it.

Anyway, we don't know why Garland recused himself because he has not stated a reason. But to presume it is because of some obvious bias, I see no logic to that.
posted by JackFlash at 10:10 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

Anyway, we don't know why Garland recused himself because he has not stated a reason.

True; I retract my interpretation of the story.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 10:17 PM on October 7, 2018

if there were an ethics issue on the Supreme Court
...
we don't know why Garland recused himself because he has not stated a reason

hmmmmmmm
posted by adept256 at 10:17 PM on October 7, 2018

Garland is very far from a Democratic partisan, he’s a true moderate judge with widespread endorsements from the farthest right hacks like pre-2016 Orrin Hatch, that’s why Obama nominatied him as a compromise pick. And why his treatment is unfuckingforgiveable and a declaration of war.

So actually refusing himself over personal bias or bitterness is understandable and expected, even if a fucking worthless sniveling facist Republican like Bart O’Kavanaugh would never in a billion years do so.

And why the next president should take no prisoners, and nominate no more Garlands.

Republicans use political power to entrench their own rule. Fight, back.
posted by T.D. Strange at 10:22 PM on October 7, 2018 [27 favorites]

A hard blow this weekend.

Don’t give up. We will vote and move to impeach this asshole.
posted by dagosto at 10:23 PM on October 7, 2018 [1 favorite]

Taylor Swift pens a nice little Instagram post about her political beliefs, which she's been somewhat coy about before, and endorses Democrats Phil Bredesen for Senate and Jim Cooper for House of Representatives in Tennessee.

No-one appears to have pointed this out in the thread yet, but these midterms have become a proxy battle between Kanye West and Taylor Swift, and which of the two supports which side is, as it turns out, not the way we expected.
posted by Merus at 10:32 PM on October 7, 2018 [105 favorites]

Sometimes you really can read body language.

@AynRandPaulRyan Any woman who voted for this monster should be ashamed.

"What is your message today to the women across this country who are feeling devastated, feeling like the message that's been sent--"

Trump:" "I don't think they are. I don't think they are."
[video]
posted by scalefree at 10:54 PM on October 7, 2018 [24 favorites]

Urrrrrgh...
David Neiwert:

1) There’s been a lot of handwringing in the media pundit corps and centrist politicians these days about the loss of comity, post-Kavanaugh. And then Donald Trump made them all look absurd with his remarks at his rally last night. Thread follows.

2) 'You don't hand matches to an arsonist and you don't give power to an angry left-wing mob, and that's what they've become. Democrats have become too extreme and too dangerous to govern. Republicans believe in the rule of law, not the rule of the mob.'

3) This is a remarkable moment in American politics: The President of the United States just declared an entire political party fundamentally illegitimate. And the media are treating it as just another of Trump’s crazy things.
[...]

Can someone, somewhere, please start holding that asshole to account for the things he said? Isn't that the job of the press?
posted by PontifexPrimus at 12:37 AM on October 8, 2018 [73 favorites]

Melania Trump Gives 1.4 Million Books to Struggling School in Malawi During Africa Trip

It's good to see Melania is doing everything she can to -

the Trump administration has been trying to cut the agency’s funding. In its first two budget proposals, the administration sought to slash funding for the State Department and USAID by roughly 30 percent.

Nevermind.
posted by adept256 at 2:12 AM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

I'm as disappointed as any Tennessee democrat over Bredesen's endorsement of Kavanaugh. That hurt. I will still vote for Bredesen because regardless of WTF he is thinking or doing, surely he isn't as thoroughly compromised as Blackburn. I mean, I can only hope he isn't.
posted by heatvision at 3:18 AM on October 8, 2018

Contesting for the most tone deaf headline of the year, and a helpful tip that you need read no further, the Wall Street Journal:

Susan Collins Consents
posted by adept256 at 3:35 AM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

Africans being meh and blah about Mrs Trump's visit

It was difficult to tell whether the small groups of Ghanaians standing around the morning of her arrival were there in support or protest of Trump’s arrival, or waiting on public transportation to take them to work.
posted by infini at 3:41 AM on October 8, 2018 [5 favorites]

Contesting for the most tone deaf headline of the year

That's not tone deaf, that's intentional and mocking.
posted by fullerine at 4:12 AM on October 8, 2018 [69 favorites]

I agree, the WSJ knew exactly what tone they were going for with that headline.
posted by octothorpe at 4:59 AM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

The New Yorker revisits the mysterious web traffic of the Trump-Alfa Bank servers affair and the question of covert communications: Was There a Connection Between a Russian Bank and the Trump Campaign? “Is it possible there is an innocuous explanation for all this?” [cyber investigator] Paul said. “Yes, of course. And it’s also possible that space aliens did this. It’s possible—just not very likely.”

The Atlantic's Franklin Foer concurs: "Dexter Filkins does a meticulous job revisiting the Trump/Alfa Bank server connection--and lands at about the same conclusion I did a few years back: This wasn't random." (ref. Foer's 2016 Slate piece: Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?)

Incidentally, since this thread is past the 2K mark, a clean draft for the next mega-thread is available for collaboration: http://mefiwiki.com/wiki/U.S._Politics_FPP_Draft
posted by Doktor Zed at 6:20 AM on October 8, 2018 [30 favorites]

Isn't that the job of the press?

The job of the press is to make a profit. Incidental motivations are only truly useful for a debate about why the press exists, but a counter-balance to out-of-control government is, in practice, irrelevant.

It's a simple fact that we all saw in grand relief between June and December 2016. And through to the recent shame.

Say that minds me, if you haven't seen John Oliver's reporting on Facebook, you're not likely to. Imagine the 2016 election, but in Myanmar.
posted by petebest at 6:35 AM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

The job of the press is to make a profit.

While funded by the German government, the work of DW is regulated by the Deutsche Welle Act,[4] meaning that content is always independent of government influence.

NHK, ... is a publicly owned corporation funded by viewers' payments of a television license fee.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) was founded in 1929 as Australia's national broadcaster. It is currently principally funded by direct grants from the Australian government, but is expressly independent of Government and politics. The ABC plays a leading role in journalistic independence

I could go on, but this idea that journalism is only there to make a profit is a new and thoroughly bullshit idea. Mature democracies know the fundamental importance of an informed public and fund unbiased journalism.
posted by adept256 at 6:50 AM on October 8, 2018 [48 favorites]

Youtube links to publically owned news media (in English) around the world:

NHK
Deutsche Welle
France24
BBC
ABC
SBS

Get out of your bubble and take a dive, it's all free. This is what taxes pay for.
posted by adept256 at 7:01 AM on October 8, 2018 [34 favorites]

NYT: Rod Rosenstein to Join Trump Aboard Air Force One "The two men were scheduled to leave for Orlando, where Mr. Trump is to deliver a speech at the International Association of Chiefs of Police annual conference in the early afternoon. A Justice Department official confirmed that the Mr. Rosenstein planned to travel on Air Force One to accompany the president for his speech, but did not share an agenda for any meeting."
posted by Doktor Zed at 7:15 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

adept256:

How important is Willie being on stage with Beto? Willie, Tay, Lebron and others, Beyonce, Gaga, they can reach people who otherwise DGAF.


I can verify this. I texted for Beto yesterday and more than one response was, "Heck yeah! If he is good enough for Willie, he is good enough for me!"

Willie reaches a range of folks that are further right than most of us on MetaFilter, and is definitely influencing voters with his first ever endorsement of a candidate.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 7:22 AM on October 8, 2018 [57 favorites]

NYT: Rod Rosenstein to Join Trump Aboard Air Force One

This is ominous. He’s riding high off the weekend. Feeling invulnerable.

I don’t like this.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:37 AM on October 8, 2018 [22 favorites]

I could go on, but this idea that journalism is only there to make a profit is a new and thoroughly bullshit idea. Mature democracies know the fundamental importance of an informed public and fund unbiased journalism.

Yes, but we’re talking about the American media.
posted by T.D. Strange at 7:40 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

NYT: Rod Rosenstein to Join Trump Aboard Air Force One

This reminds me of how he fired Comey when he was visiting the LA field office and was supposedly angry Comey was allowed to ride back on the FBI jet rather than taking a commercial flight. He seems to get off on the performative cruelty of firing & stranding people.
posted by bluecore at 7:44 AM on October 8, 2018 [14 favorites]

We gave the television networks free airwaves. We subsidized the hell out of telecommunications infrastructure because there wouldn't be a foot of copper in the middle of Kansas without it. It's not that the media should but don't provide informative and unbiased coverage, they agreed to provide it to us and owe us.
posted by cmfletcher at 7:48 AM on October 8, 2018 [32 favorites]

> It's impressive and telling how not a single goddamned one of these public-figure GOP "converts" will simply say "I have decided that the GOP sucks and I will identify as a Democrat and mostly vote for Democrats."...But without exception they simply must find some way to make sure to tell us what ghouls they really are.

Conservatives who've decided to leave the Party because of Trump are still conservative. They're still going to support market deregulation and oppose publicly funded social programs. I don't expect them to suddenly "convert" and start aligning themselves with progressives. I think calling them "ghouls" is a bit over the top. If they vote for Democrats, at least sometimes, because of reasoning along the lines of 'at least Democrats aren't fascists', even though they still disagree with us about a lot of stuff, and try to persuade other people to do the same, that's a good thing and will help us preserve democracy. (This is what French people call the 'republican vote' – basically 'anybody but Le Pen', a vote to save the republic from thinly disguised fascism.)

We're going through a political realignment in our country. It will take a while to play out. Conservatives leaving the Republican Party is part of this process. They'll probably start trying to form alliances with moderate Democrats soon. I don't know how this will play out in the long run. I'm a social democrat and part of the left wing of the Democratic Party. I welcome their votes for now, even though we'll but heads when they start trying to gain influence in our party, as I'm sure they will. Saving democracy is kind of important!
posted by nangar at 7:51 AM on October 8, 2018 [20 favorites]

This is ominous. He’s riding high off the weekend. Feeling invulnerable.

I think this was always the plan once Kavanaugh was seated. Fire Rosenstein, stop the Mueller investigation, let his new SCOTUS insulate his administration from any consequences.
posted by gladly at 7:52 AM on October 8, 2018 [19 favorites]

Viral “Manspreading” Video is Staged Kremlin Propaganda

The video and its reactions also echo negative messages about feminism, the MeToo movement and “political correctness” in the West, which Russian state television has repeatedly delivered .

On 5 November 2017, state TV host Dmitry Kiselev, who is under a personal EU sanction, compared the MeToo discussions in the West to Soviet repressions, claiming that they have led to a situation where “there is no such thing as human nature and no romantic adventures anymore”, and where “everything can be misinterpreted as dirty harassment”,

On 1 October this year, Kiselev lashed out at what he described as “malignant feminism” – accusations of sexual misconduct – in the West, an “infection” which, he said, is moving from the US to Europe and Russia.

posted by Buntix at 7:56 AM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

Feeling invulnerable.

Invulnerable to the tropical storm Michael heading there too?
posted by Stoneshop at 7:59 AM on October 8, 2018

I could go on, but this idea that journalism is only there to make a profit is a new and thoroughly bullshit idea.

Invisible hand, doncha know? Truth is determined by what makes a profit.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:03 AM on October 8, 2018 [1 favorite]

Bloomberg is reporting that Trump just claimed he has no plans to fire Rosenstein, and gets along great with him. Frankly, I find that more ominous.
posted by scarylarry at 8:08 AM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

From waaaaay back up the thread:

Question: What penalty would a Dem Jud Com senator suffer if he or she did indeed talk about what they knew? Does anyone know the exact rule governing this situation?

posted by ImproviseOrDie at 9:17 AM on October 4 [17 favorites +] [!]

It's my understanding that the GOP, holding a majority, could just vote the senator out. In fact, they could vote the entire Democratic caucus out if they decided to be so bold. What penalty they would pay at the polls is an interesting question, but current events suggest they would steam on undisturbed by the muffled complaints of the electorate.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:12 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

NBC: Trump Has Lost $1 Billion In Personal Wealth Since Running For President—Some wealthy patrons are steering clear of Trump properties, saying the country club experience is now ruined "by metal detectors and bomb-sniffing dogs."

And this occurred during a period in which Forbes's list of billionaires' net worth rose 7 percent year on year to a high of $2.9 trillion.
posted by Doktor Zed at 8:13 AM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

Here’s the Bloomberg story.
posted by scarylarry at 8:13 AM on October 8, 2018

What penalty they would pay at the polls is an interesting question

We're going to find out in 3 weeks whether penalties being paid at the polls are something that can still happen.
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:14 AM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

The fascist wave is reaching Brazil.

It came long before this, with Temer's soft coup of Dilma, and the imprisonment of Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro's win is a tragedy, though.
posted by _Synesthesia_ at 8:15 AM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

Bloomberg is reporting that Trump just claimed he has no plans to fire Rosenstein, and gets along great with him. Frankly, I find that more ominous.

Trump, for all his reality-TV bluster, is famously incapable of firing people face-to-face (see also that he agrees with whomever was in the room with him most recently). Rosenstein is entirely capable of convincing Trump that ol' Rod is his best friend, regardless of whether the knife is coming.
posted by Etrigan at 8:15 AM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

I would imagine today is not the day for Rod due to: (1) too soon after Kavanaugh and (2) elections in four weeks.
posted by M-x shell at 8:17 AM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

I could go on, but this idea that journalism is only there to make a profit is a new and thoroughly bullshit idea.

Agreed on both counts. And yet that's what promotes or impedes this Turdocratic administration in the country that hoarked it up.

CNN had a problem and Trump solved it (Ironically (?) via NYT)
posted by petebest at 8:27 AM on October 8, 2018

I think there's a much more ominous aspect to Rod Rosenstein hitching a ride for some one-on-one time with Trump.

Mueller's already plumbed the depths of the First Stooge at the illegal meeting with Russian criminals in Trump Tower, Paul Manafort. He's gotten convictions on a set of charges, guilty pleas on the remainder, AND seized 44 million dollars, that no pardon will ever get back.

So, the remaining two stooges at the illegal meeting with Russian criminals were First Son Donald Trump, Jr. and First-Son-In-Law Jared Kushner.

And it's beyond time for Mueller to move forward with the indictments of the other two stooges, and as a courtesy, they've been known to give the President a heads-up.

Yeah, it's optimistic, but that's how I have to roll today.
posted by mikelieman at 8:30 AM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

Nate Silver is worried not only about the senate, but about the house as well
posted by growabrain at 8:31 AM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

I see the problem here, I really should amend my comment to reflect the reality of the American situation.

Mature democracies Ascendant autocracies know the fundamental importance of an informed a misinformed public and fund unbiased biased journalism.
posted by adept256 at 8:33 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Nate Silver is worried not only about the senate, but about the house as well

The Senate was always a long shot and I think we're likely to lose at least 2-3 seats.

As for the House, well...one way or the other Democrats will get millions more votes than Republicans. If we were an actual democracy it would already be a fait accompli. If and when we fail to retake the House due entirely to years of GOP sabotage, then we are going to have to have a long, hard think about what to do next. And it had better not be to say "oh well I guess an overwhelming majority of voters wasn't enough, better make sure to vote again next time."
posted by Rust Moranis at 8:41 AM on October 8, 2018 [45 favorites]

I'll be flipping off Trump Hotel Chicago from the DuSable bridge this weekend, so I'm doing my part.

Overpass Light Brigades should shift over to locations visible from Trump properties.
posted by ocschwar at 8:54 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Early Voting Report! If you live in Iowa, today is the first day that you can vote absentee.

I can tell you that, in addition to myself and my wife, there were three other people in line for voting, and another person came in to request ballots mailed to their home for himself and his wife (who was not present). at 10:30am on a Monday.

#BlueRage
posted by Xyanthilous P. Harrierstick at 9:12 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

Donald Trump’s father is the root of his rage - David Shields, Salon

This is a brief excerpt from my book "Nobody Hates Trump More Than Trump: An Intervention." This excerpt is the crux of the book: Trump hates himself; he hates himself because his father treated him as a vector on the grid of capitalism. Trump is unable to face his own self-loathing, so — like most bullies — he expresses that rage outward, incessantly.

posted by ZeusHumms at 9:15 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

Seth MacFarlane predicted today's Supreme Court welcome ceremony on 6/6/2000
posted by growabrain at 9:20 AM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

Alt-right conman James O'Keefe's Project Veritas (killer of Acorn, etc.) recently put out one of their fraudulent video "exposés" that targeted DSA members working in government. One of their targets, a major activist in the Metro DC DSA, got fired, doxed, smeared on Fox News, and deluged with death threats from fascists. He currently has a GoFundMe up that I just donated to. I hope y'all will consider supporting someone who is suffering for fighting the forces we're always complaining about here. He was part of the group that ruined Kirstjen Nielsen's dinner when she was complicit in caging children. Any funds in excess of his goal will be donated to the DC DSA.
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 9:22 AM on October 8, 2018 [29 favorites]

Seth MacFarlane predicted today's Supreme Court welcome ceremony

They really do haze the newest Justice though.
posted by save alive nothing that breatheth at 9:27 AM on October 8, 2018 [1 favorite]

I think that a lot of Midwestern voters wouldn't care if a candidate wanted to nationalize the auto industry, as long as he was a tall man with a square jaw who seemed like he liked football and beer.

posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:20 PM on October 6 [27 favorites +] [!]

You were doing fine until this statement. A lot of California and New York voters would do the same thing.
posted by Mental Wimp at 9:34 AM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

well but also, although the authoritarians talk up the idea of the tall lantern-jawed manly man who loves football and beer, in practice they're willing to declare that tall lantern-jawed footbeer players are cucks or whatever, so long as the lantern-jawed footbeer player in question isn't an authoritarian. Likewise, they'll gladly pretend that an out-of-shape short nondrinker is a tall lantern-jawed footbeer player if that out-of-shape nondrinker is eager to see people outside the preferred group get curbstomped.

Note that their current god emperor is someone who devotes a truly impressive amount of his time to narcissistic primping and preening — think about how long it takes him to build that hair sculpture every day. He would be a fop, if he were smart enough to understand fashion and if he were capable of noticing that his tailors are playing a prank on him. There is nothing traditionally hetero-masculine about him. but he sure does love raping women and kicking minorities, so that makes him manly in their eyes.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 9:48 AM on October 8, 2018 [14 favorites]

Manafort-linked Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska’s US accounts frozen, NYC mansion seized.

Maybe this is what Rosenstein was giving Trump a head’s up about.
posted by schadenfrau at 9:50 AM on October 8, 2018 [48 favorites]

Speaking of asset seizures, Buzzfeed's Zoe Tillman reported on Friday: "Special counsel's office is formally moving for a forfeiture order to seize Paul Manafort's assets, per his plea deal. By agreement the feds won't seize his Trump Tower apt. and Hamptons house until on/after Oct. 20: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4956489/10-5-18-US-Motion-for-Forfeiture-Manafort.pdf"
posted by Doktor Zed at 10:06 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

ocschwar: Overpass Light Brigades should shift over to locations visible from Trump properties.

A local artist projected messages on the Trump Hotel in D.C.
posted by Surely This at 10:08 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Trump is now pushing the message that the Kavanaugh “hoax” will “cost the Dems” in the midterms. He has already spoken about “something” happening to the elections. He’s also floated the idea that the left will hack the midterms.

He told us, outright, in real time, when he was commiting treason by colluding with Russia during the 2016 election. He did it on live television at a rally. He does not have the impulse control to do otherwise.

Why are we still not believing him?
posted by schadenfrau at 10:13 AM on October 8, 2018 [51 favorites]

Why are we still not believing him?

Because admitting to ourselves that they're either going to fix future elections or refuse to accept any result not in their favor means we will have to embrace tactics that most of us are still too uncomfortable to think about.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:17 AM on October 8, 2018 [33 favorites]

Holy shit, what is wrong with these people?

Brett Kavanaugh is the "slut whore drunk" of the story in his Supreme Court nomination, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said moments after the Senate voted to confirm Kavanaugh.

Graham was apparently trying to make a point about how awful it was (to him) that this time it was the accused sexual assaulter whose reputation was sullied more than the sexual assault victim but who says such a thing?

On edit: fixed a typo that came from the NBC news link where Kavanaugh's name was misspelled "Kavanugh"; I almost wonder whether Kavan-ugh was intentional..
posted by Nerd of the North at 10:17 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

Donald Trump’s father is the root of his rage

Trump is so obviously the result of emotional (if not also physical) abuse and neglect that this isn't news to a lot of us, but good that someone did the homework.
posted by Miko at 10:20 AM on October 8, 2018 [14 favorites]

In case you needed more proof that Fox was the the communications arm of the Republican Party:

Hope Hicks, the former White House communications director who served during the chaotic first year of the Trump administration, has been named head of corporate communications for New Fox, the company to emerge after 21st Century Fox completes the sale of assets to Disney early next year.

posted by octothorpe at 10:21 AM on October 8, 2018 [13 favorites]

> Brett Kavanaugh is the "slut whore drunk" of the story in his Supreme Court nomination, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said moments after the Senate voted to confirm Kavanaugh.

To be clear, this is a [REAL] quote.

I just ...
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:47 AM on October 8, 2018 [13 favorites]

Actual, provable, rigged elections would be civil war triggering territory. At least I assume so. Which means many/most of us are pretty well convinced that the Republicans would not go there, especially since thanks to demographics they've got excellent chances of holding the Senate until 2024 and from 2026 onward basically owning it forever with no realistic chance of a Democratic majority. And thanks to gerrymandering even if the Democrats manage a Blue Wave this election cycle and take the House, they very likely will reclaim the House during future cycles.

They've got a 40+ year lock on the Supreme Court, the more important branch of Congress theirs forever, and very good odds of taking either the Presidency or the House in any given election cycle.

Basically, at this point, outright rigging elections and thereby triggering a civil war would be unnecessary. Why should they bother when they've got a win no matter what?

Now, obviously, they'll keep up the voter suppression tactics, the implausible deniability level foreign interference, and so on. But the Republicans actually changing election results seems awfully unlikely.

I'll admit I'm often wrong in my political predictions, especially when it comes to assuming some basic degree of competence or thinking on the part of Republicans, but it really does seem extremely unlikely that they'd try actual election rigging at this point in the game. If it seemed necessary for their political survival I can see them trying it, but right now it isn't.

This doesn't mean we shouldn't be vigilant, but it does explain why even those of us on the really far left tend not to be **too** worried about outright election rigging from the Republicans. They've already got it all wrapped up, no need to rig elections.
posted by sotonohito at 10:56 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

Donald Trump’s father is the root of his rage

Trump is so obviously the result of emotional (if not also physical) abuse and neglect that this isn't news to a lot of us, but good that someone did the homework.

posted by Miko at 10:20 AM on October 8

Yes!

And what would help us to win at "all of this" [gesturing wildly] is to remember this. And to realize that every enemy of the good is suffering likewise.

If we engage with them the way we'd engage with wounded children acting out (rather than condescendingly, as if they should "just know better"), we have a real chance to elicit the change we desperately seek.

I firmly believe fighting fire with fire burns us all.

Fighting for the good (agitate, resist, mobilize, vote, speak out, etc.) while treating even the worst offenders as the humans they are (and with the dignity that every human deserves) is the way through. I can't see it any other way.

Shame doesn't work. Mockery doesn't work.

Empathy & kindness work. Think of Trump with sorrow and work to stop his agenda with vigor.
posted by narwhal at 10:56 AM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

NYT: Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein to Join Trump Aboard Air Force One

I'm so old I can remember when the New York Times pumped the story of Bill Clinton spending 15 minutes with Attorney General Loretta Lynch in her plane talking about their grandchildren as a major political scandal causing FBI director Comey to accuse her of corruption as justification for releasing his personal opinion of the email investigation.

The New York Times is complicit.
posted by JackFlash at 10:59 AM on October 8, 2018 [46 favorites]

Empathy and kindness didn't stop Nazis the last time.
posted by Rust Moranis at 10:59 AM on October 8, 2018 [45 favorites]

One Second Before Awakening,
Thanks for posting that gofundme link. I just donated. I really appreciate it when folks on these megathreads provide links to specific things we can do, right then.

That said, his $5,000 goal won't last him long. If he's really part of the group that ruined Kirstjen Nielsen's dinner that one night, somebody needs to offer him a job right quick.
posted by mabelstreet at 11:02 AM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

many/most of us are pretty well convinced that the Republicans would not go there

Why not? Half of them are in a fucking death cult.
posted by aspersioncast at 11:07 AM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

Empathy and kindness didn't stop Nazis the last time.

posted by Rust Moranis at 10:59 AM on October 8

I apologize if I was unclear.

Fight for the good (agitate, resist, mobilize, vote, speak out, etc.)!

But do so with empathy & compassion.

You can put your body between a nazi & a protestor with empathy & compassion.

You can shout that children shouldn't be kept in cages with empathy & compassion.

You can decry the criminal behavior of a politician with empathy & compassion.

You can act for the good with empathy & compassion.

It isn't a zero sum game such that the only way we can resist the bad is by playing their game, by dehumanizing our enemy.

Again- I'm sorry that I wasn't clear. :(
posted by narwhal at 11:08 AM on October 8, 2018 [22 favorites]

Basically, at this point, outright rigging elections and thereby triggering a civil war would be unnecessary. Why should they bother when they've got a win no matter what?

Now, obviously, they'll keep up the voter suppression tactics, the implausible deniability level foreign interference, and so on. But the Republicans actually changing election results seems awfully unlikely.

I don't think they're going to do anything "provable." They don't have to when they have a nation state that has already hacked into many states' voter registration systems. All they have to do is fuck with registrations in targeted areas. Or stage a late October / early November scandal. Or an emergency. Or all three.

The worst case scenario is that they do it with enough plausible deniability that no one's willing to call it rigged, but the end result is still unrepresentative and illegitimate. That plausible deniability will allow people who are not yet too uncomfortable to continue lying to themselves, until they get so good at it that they find themselves, slowly, siding with the winners.

I don't like being doom and gloomy without presenting an alternative, but I'm not sure what that would be, in this case, except that we have to turn out in numbers that make it impossible to rig without it being obvious.

After that, I don't know. But we can't keep our heads in the sand anymore. We have to start taking the worst case scenarios seriously, and we have to plan for them.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:09 AM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

@ddale8: Trump, pointing at journalists, tells police chiefs that the media refuses to tell them "how much our country loves you." He adds, "They don't tell you the true feeling." There are cheers.

The police chiefs are cheering Trump attacking the press for failing to sufficiently praise the police. I really don't know what to say to that.
posted by zachlipton at 11:11 AM on October 8, 2018 [61 favorites]

Also don't discount the possibility of the blatant and flagrant rigging of an already gerrymandered-and-suppressed election as a demonstration of raw power. It'd be straight out of the totalitarian playbook.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:12 AM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

Once again: if someone wants to hurt you for the sake of hurting you, nothing you can say will convince them they don't want to hurt you. You fight, or you flee.
posted by schadenfrau at 11:14 AM on October 8, 2018 [43 favorites]

I think they are raising the possibility of a rigged election so they can blame the blue wave on Chinese/Democratic fraud, possibly as a pretext to declare them null and void. There is no end to their filth.
posted by M-x shell at 11:22 AM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

The police chiefs are cheering Trump attacking the press for failing to sufficiently praise the police. I really don't know what to say to that.

I know what to say to that: the apparatus of state violence will always support fascism.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:23 AM on October 8, 2018 [41 favorites]

Greg Sargent, Trump’s ugly attacks on Blasey Ford could save the Senate for Republicans. Really.

Over the weekend, Trump explained why he decided to attack Christine Blasey Ford. Trump said that “I thought I had to even the playing field,” adding: “It was a very unfair situation. So I evened the playing field. Once I did that, it started to sail through.”

A senior Democratic strategist who is closely tracking internal data explained to me in a fascinating way how Trump’s behavior is playing politically. He tells me that in the red states that will decide control of the Senate — states where Democratic incumbents are fighting to hold on — many voters came to see the battle over Kavanaugh’s fate as inextricably tied to Trump — that is, as all about protecting and rallying to the side of Trump himself.

In other words, Kavanaugh was transformed from a generic conservative hatched in a Federalist Society lab into a Trumpist. This may explain Trump’s attacks on Ford — aside from succumbing to his usual depravity, he may have sensed that he needed to get GOP senators more fearful of the wrath of the Trump base. It also helps explain why the White House advised Kavanaugh to show his feelings at his hearing, which he did by lashing out in anger and histrionic self-pity, while vowing partisan retribution.

This Democratic strategist tells me this depiction of Kavanaugh as Trumpian victim may have worked in red states with competitive Senate races. For all the talk about white women shifting against Trump, this strategist says that many red-state white women came to see Kavanaugh as a sympathetic figure who is being “railroaded.” The strategist tells me these women associated this battle with their own husbands, sons and grandsons, asking themselves: “Why should 35-year-old accusations that are uncorroborated derail his entire career?”

Trump escalated this strategy after publication of this article, calling what happened to Kavanaugh a "disgraceful situation brought about by people that are evil." He previously called Dr. Ford "very credible" and "a very fine woman" [uggggghhhh], and is now apparently calling her "evil."
posted by zachlipton at 11:39 AM on October 8, 2018 [15 favorites]

For all the talk about white women shifting against Trump, this strategist says that many red-state white women came to see Kavanaugh as a sympathetic figure who is being “railroaded.” The strategist tells me these women associated this battle with their own husbands, sons and grandsons, asking themselves: “Why should 35-year-old accusations that are uncorroborated derail his entire career?”

This is what (auto-)misogyny looks like.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 11:45 AM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

and from 2026 onward basically owning it forever with no realistic chance of a Democratic majority

I don't understand this logic at all. Can someone explain how people dying doesn't change the math here?
posted by jasondigitized at 11:49 AM on October 8, 2018

I don't understand this logic at all. Can someone explain how people dying doesn't change the math here?

It doesn't matter how many people in Wyoming die of old age: if there's only one nazi living in giant-lizard-infested rubble, he'll still have the senatorial voting power of all Californians combined.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:52 AM on October 8, 2018 [32 favorites]

Last I checked the population of Wyoming was something like half a million?

Where can we spare half a million young blue hats?
posted by schadenfrau at 11:56 AM on October 8, 2018

It doesn't matter how many people in Wyoming die of old age: if there's only one nazi living in giant-lizard-infested rubble, he'll still have the senatorial voting power of all Californians combined.

I understand that math. What I don't understand is saying that we will never, ever have a democratic Senate majority. If Texas can have a whiff of blue hope, anywhere can no? Are we saying the South will never ever, ever elect democrats?
posted by jasondigitized at 11:56 AM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

Texas has a sizeable minority population. Wyoming, I'm pretty sure based on my experience in other Western states, is whitey white white white white
posted by angrycat at 11:59 AM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Two sides in USA have declarations of Cold Civil War

This paper characterizes American partisan conflict as historically oscillating between "two rivals that mutually acknowledge legitimacy" and "parties seeing one another as threats to the Constitutional order". The phase of mutually-acknowledged legitimacy from 1890-1990-ish depended on conditions that no longer exist. The paper also discusses what makes the U.S. a republic and opens up the question of how small-r-republican values will (or will not) be instantiated in the post-Trump age.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 12:01 PM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

The strategist tells me these women associated this battle with their own husbands, sons and grandsons, asking themselves: “Why should 35-year-old accusations that are uncorroborated derail his entire career?”

This is what (auto-)misogyny looks like.

This is what it looks like when you think you have more to fear from the end of white patriarchy than you do from its destruction and you’re at least a little bit of a selfish asshole. But many, many people are at least a little bit selfish and assholish. So.

Idk, white women. Maybe don’t marry white men? Seems to turn a lot of you bad.

And of course, the really fucked up thing is that the unquestioned premise of this entire discussion is that white men cannot be expected to be anything other than terrible.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:03 PM on October 8, 2018 [26 favorites]

I’d say “let me tell you about my mother” here, but really that’s something for venting threads and therapy sessions.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 12:05 PM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

I’d say “let me tell you about my mother” here, but really that’s something for venting threads and therapy sessions.

But you're not helping McConnell. Why is that, Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon?
posted by Rust Moranis at 12:07 PM on October 8, 2018 [19 favorites]

Bellingcat uncover the identity of the 2nd Skripal assassin.
posted by PenDevil at 12:10 PM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

> Texas has a sizeable minority population. Wyoming, I'm pretty sure based on my experience in other Western states, is whitey white white white white

Basically: (1) we need to combine states (like the Dakotas) or divide states (like Cascadia, NorCal, SoCal) to bring their populations more in line with each other, or (2) we need to eliminate the 2-senators-per-state rule and replace it with somewhat more proportional representation in an upper legislative chamber. Both of these require the empty states to vote to make themselves (even more) irrelevant, and that will never happen in the forseeable future.

The other option (3) is to have a large resettlement program to take over Idaho (pop 1,753,860[*]) and Wyoming (pop 573,720) and the Dakotas (pop 755,238 + 877,790) - and I don't see myself volunteering for the resettlement brigades. So.

[*] 2018 population estimates from here - compare California at 39,776,830 people and growing at 0.6% per year with Wyoming at 573,720 and shrinking at 1% per year. Both have 2 senators.
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:15 PM on October 8, 2018 [5 favorites]

(4) Add Puerto Rico, DC, and perhaps others as states. Has the virtue of being far more doable in practice.
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:17 PM on October 8, 2018 [23 favorites]

Another big Democratic loss. And yet more complaints about a ‘rigged’ system. (Aaron Blake, WaPo)

He analyzes historical lopsided representation and concludes

It’s fair to raise concerns about how unfair the U.S. system of government is. No system is perfect. Our founders were flawed people who included the three-fifths compromise as part of this system of government. And there is a method to change this setup — albeit an extremely difficult one.

But at some point, Democrats may need to ask themselves why they are consistently on the short end of that setup. Is it because the system is inherently biased against a left-leaning political party? Or is it because they have been outmaneuvered at nearly every turn and failed to make sure they turned what has regularly been a majority of the votes for their side into actual political power?

It’s easy and cathartic to blame a rigged system. It’s probably much more fruitful to figure out why the other side has been able to work that system in a way you haven’t.

posted by Johnny Wallflower at 12:19 PM on October 8, 2018 [13 favorites]

> (4) Add Puerto Rico, DC, and perhaps others as states.

Which I heartily endorse, but that does nothing to correct the fact that Wyoming gets 100x the per-capita representation in the Senate that California does.
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:20 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

When we bring up Wyoming they bring up Rhode Island, which is the 2nd most represented per capita.
posted by M-x shell at 12:23 PM on October 8, 2018

The argument sounds better when you say Wyoming gets 80x the representation than Texas.
posted by jasondigitized at 12:23 PM on October 8, 2018 [18 favorites]

Resettlement isn't really feasible even though it's kinda fun to think about, and it's not like you could do it without redhats noticing and, you know, doing something about it.

Adding DC, Puerto Rico, and, frankly, anyone else we can is -- incredibly -- the most realistic path to delaying perma-fuckery in the Senate, possibly long enough to actually head it off at the pass.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:24 PM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

When we bring up Wyoming they bring up Rhode Island

🎶“Wyoming! / Rhode Island!
Rhode Island! / Wyoming!
Let’s call the whole thing off” 🎶
posted by Barack Spinoza at 12:25 PM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

Rhode Island has more people than north or south dakota.
posted by cmfletcher at 12:27 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

Hamed Aleaziz, BuzzFeed, ICE Attorneys Were Told Last Year To Stop Using Their Discretion In Immigration Cases

Attorneys for Immigration and Custom Enforcement were restricted from granting reprieves for certain immigrants facing deportation, ordered to review and potentially re-open previously closed cases, and told that nearly all undocumented immigrants were priorities for deportation, according to a previously unreleased memo obtained by BuzzFeed News.

The memo, which was issued on Aug. 15, 2017, and obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request, provided a roadmap for how ICE attorneys were to prosecute cases under the Trump administration. It was written by Tracy Short, ICE’s principal legal adviser and head of the attorneys who handle deportation cases in court.
...
Under the Obama administration, ICE attorneys were encouraged to request the dismissal or indefinite suspension of deportation cases of immigrants who were not serious criminals or national security threats. To do so, the administration directed ICE attorneys to look for qualifying cases and encouraged immigration attorneys to email ICE with requests for “prosecutorial discretion.”

Obama administration officials believed their approach would focus ICE’s limited resources on those unauthorized immigrants with the worst criminal records, as opposed to those who were largely contributing members of society.

Short’s memo told attorneys they were no longer required to check the email inbox used to receive requests for leniency from immigration attorneys. Short also wrote that ICE attorneys could consider prosecutorial discretion for immigrants in certain circumstances, such as a relative of a military member, has an obvious claim to status, has an “extraordinary humanitarian factor,” or is an asset to state or federal law enforcement. Even then, ICE attorneys must receive written approval from senior leadership in Washington for such a request.

posted by zachlipton at 12:33 PM on October 8, 2018 [23 favorites]

I mean, “resettlement” in the voluntary-ish, chasing-political-change or fleeing-climate-change sense.

But still not gonna be a thing.
posted by schadenfrau at 12:39 PM on October 8, 2018 [1 favorite]

Rhode Island's demographic make-up is closer to the U.S. aggregate than Wyoming.

WYOMING:

White 92.8%
Black 1.3%
American Indian and Alaska Native 2.7%
Asian 1.0%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.1%
Two or More Races 2.1%
Hispanic or Latino 10.0%
White alone, not Hispanic/Latino 84.0%

RHODE ISLAND:

White 84.1%
Black or African American 8.2%
American Indian and Alaska Native 1.0%
Asian 3.7%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.2%
Two or More Races 2.8%
Hispanic or Latino 15.5%
White alone, not Hispanic/Latino 72.5%

U.S.A.:

White 76.6%
Black or African American 13.4%
American Indian and Alaska Native 1.3%
Asian 5.8%
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.2%
Two or More Races 2.7%
Hispanic or Latino 18.1%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 60.7%
posted by zakur at 12:45 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

It’s easy and cathartic to blame a rigged system. It’s probably much more fruitful to figure out why the other side has been able to work that system in a way you haven’t.

OMFG everyone knows that they rigged the system in 2016, Trump KEPT SAYING IT WAS RIGGED and then the FBI found tons of proof. People are going to jail and/or to trial for it right now. Even the GOP admits now that foreign actors "meddled" with the election on their behalf! We just haven't been able to do much about it, because they hold all levers of government.

And that's not even to touch on all the legal-but-unethical ways that they've rigged elections -- everything from laws designed for voter suppression and gerrymandering (which IMO is related to their tactics for gaming presidential races using the electoral college), to discriminatory regulation and policing of immigration and paths to naturalization (in order to encourage warped, whitened voting demographics), to the creation of an entertainment wing of their party to deliver partisan and incredible PR to their consumers under the cover of "news" (Trump himself is part of this wing, and so is the GOP media machine). Now people like the DC DSA member are being thrown out of government or government-adjacent jobs because they don't belong to the right party -- the GOP is holding an iron grip on the state apparatus and doing MORE to rig shit than they ever could have dreamed of even a couple years ago -- when they were ALREADY rigging shit anyway!

They rigged the system and what we have to do is NOT "rig it better." We surely don't have to sit here wondering why we're not better at delegitimizing democratic rule or oppressing people. We're bad at those things because we don't WANT to do those things, they're counterproductive to our aims (not to mention our values).

We need to get rid of their methods of sabotage, empower our residents, citizens, and those who hope to become either, and strengthen our methods of ensuring rule through legitimate, representative democracy. The GOP are the anti-democracy party and the pro-authoritarian party and we are pro-democracy and anti-authoritarian.
posted by rue72 at 12:47 PM on October 8, 2018 [56 favorites]

Justinian Article 5 of the US Constitution specifies that the "equal suffrage" of each state in the Senate cannot be altered by Constitutional amendment without the consent of that state.

So, yeah, that's not going to be happening ever.

jasondigitized Others have mentioned other reasons, I'll point out the biggest reason: demographics.

People are moving away from rural areas and into urban areas, and the people moving into urban areas tend to be Democratic leaning. Which leaves the rural parts of the country getting progressively more red.

Some of the Southern states may flip, or at least go purple. Georgia has Atlanta and looks like one of the more likely candidates. But as people move to those cities, they move from some other more Republican state and make that state more and more of a guaranteed thing for Republicans.

Texas is a special case in that it has several urban areas that are growing and that it has a large minority population. There's good reason to suspect that Texas will be purple in the next 15 to 20 years, possibly sooner but don't count on it.

But places like West Virginia are going to shift from being faintly purple and occasionally electing a guy like Manchin to very, very, safe for Republicans. Basically this November is the last time we can ever have even a hope of electing a Democrat in West Virginia, and Manchin was sufficiently doubtful that even he'd be able to win that he wanted to retire and it took the entire Senate Democratic leadership begging before he'd agree to run again.

We'll see a couple of states flip as the demographic shift settles out, but basically in the long term the Republicans have an all but unbeatable demographic advantage in the Senate precisely because of the very factors that people were talking up as the demographic death of the Republican Party.

Factor in the now guaranteed to be Constitutionally protected gerrymandering that the Republicans engage in, and we're looking at a future where the Senate is reliably Republican, the House tends Republican but can be taken by the Democrats in some circumstances, and the Presidency is kind of up in the air but also leans Republican thanks to the EC (and will be all but guaranteed Republican if a few gerrymandered states pass laws apportioning EC votes based on congressional district, as the Republicans in Pennsylvania tried a while back).

I don't want to be all doom and gloom, and I do hope we can figure a way out of it. But in the long term the Republicans have, at the very least, a near certain lock on the Senate. And as we saw during the Obama administration, if all the Republicans hold is the Senate they can basically dictate terms to everyone else.
posted by sotonohito at 1:01 PM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

Justinian Article 5 of the US Constitution specifies that the "equal suffrage" of each state in the Senate cannot be altered by Constitutional amendment without the consent of that state.

So, yeah, that's not going to be happening ever.

The constitution is a 240 year old piece of paper that the GOP has been wiping its ass with for decades. Best to not let it stand in the way of saving our own lives.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:05 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

Rust Moranis Discarding that portion of the Constitution, or any of it really, would involve civil war. I'm not at all in favor of that.
posted by sotonohito at 1:06 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

> They rigged the system and what we have to do is NOT "rig it better."
[...]
> We need to get rid of their methods of sabotage, empower our residents, citizens, and those who hope to become either, and strengthen our methods of ensuring rule through legitimate, representative democracy.

claim 1: the legitimate government right now is not a democracy.
claim 2: there is no direct path under the rules of the current government to the establishment of democracy, because the current rules block any pro-democracy force from assuming power by democratic means.
claim 3: wishing for democracy doesn’t establish democracy.
claim 4: we therefore must either use undemocratic means to gain control of the legitimate government, or else stage a revolution to transfer legitimacy to a new government that supports democracy.
claim 5: revolutions suck to live through. (for example, we’re in a hard right coup right now, and it’s fucking awful.)
claim 6: It is understood that nondemocratic measures adopted under emergency conditions can be very hard to get rid of.
claim 7: The worst case scenario is that the emergency measures never go away. Let’s consider that worst case scenario. In the absence of the possibility of democracy, a government where the left wins by undemocratic means is superior to a government where the right wins by undemocratic means. I’ll take a dictatorship of the proletariat over a dictatorship of some dirtbag landlord any day of the week, and twice on may day.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:06 PM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

Discarding that portion of the Constitution, or any of it really, would involve civil war. I'm not at all in favor of that.

You aren't, yet.
posted by Rust Moranis at 1:08 PM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

Mod note: Let's let the civil war extended derail go, please. Thanks.
posted by restless_nomad (staff) at 1:19 PM on October 8, 2018 [25 favorites]

claim 4: we therefore must either use undemocratic means to gain control of the legitimate government, or else stage a revolution to transfer legitimacy to a new government that supports democracy.

claim 5: revolutions suck to live through. (for example, we’re in a hard right coup right now, and it’s fucking awful.)

That's one hell of an understatement. Wars are horrible. Human misery on a scale that is difficult to comprehend. Bad as things are, and bad as things have been, we are nowhere near the horror that comes with revolution. Read some Dee Xtrovert posts and stop being so fucking cavalier about calling for it.
posted by leotrotsky at 1:21 PM on October 8, 2018 [48 favorites]

I'd like a huge [citation needed] put next to claims that people living in rural areas can't support moderate or progressive politics. if white people, me , country folk and christians can not be democrats, well, that requires something more than a Thomas Frank essay.

Indeed there are democrats and progressives out there and despite the lack of support and out right hostility they recieve, yet they persist. Preach a different, progressive gospel; educate and organize those people; they have as much to gain from a sane political policy as any others. Scorched-earthing them by demographic identity isn't the progressive thing to do. Its the irrational thing their politicians do to us. Republicans have won the framing if it is inconceivable to us that we can ever make a white christian in the country identify as anything but a nazi.
posted by Anchorite_of_Palgrave at 1:23 PM on October 8, 2018 [39 favorites]

Come on, challenging our system doesn't necessitate violence anyway. If we believe our government is illegitimate and non-democratic, then there is a world of direct action we can take that doesn't involve civil war. Get organized in your communities and workplaces, people!
posted by One Second Before Awakening at 1:25 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

I'll try this again in a less inflammatory way: Aaron Blake of WaPo should feel bad about his column. Telling people who are on the losing end of a system designed to disempower them to stop whining about the system and instead figure out how to be successful within it is a kind of victim blaming.

I agree we should do everything we can to win elections right now even while recognizing the nature of the system is unjust. That's the only way to mitigate Republican damage in the short term. But he goes beyond that in what feels like a patronizing and very privileged way. It's like asking a poor black kid from Chicago's south side why he can't learn to work the system like Yale legacy Chad Wellington III of Martha's Vineyard. Yeah, Aaron, that poor kid should stop feeling sorry for himself and get busy working his Ivy League connections like Chad.
posted by Justinian at 1:25 PM on October 8, 2018 [37 favorites]

WaPo, David A. Fahrenthold and Jonathan O'Connell, After selling off his father’s properties, Trump embraced unorthodox strategies to expand his empire

Trump emerged from his decade-long buying spree with another major debt — that oddly, according to records, he owes himself.

Since 2012, according to his financial disclosures, Trump has owed more than $50 million to a company called Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC. The disclosures indicate that the debt is related to the Trump hotel in Chicago but do not require him to reveal the exact amount.

Chicago Unit Acquisition isn’t a bank. It doesn’t have its own office. Instead, it is headquartered at Trump Tower in New York — and owned by Donald Trump.

So why would Trump owe himself more than $50 million?

posted by zachlipton at 1:30 PM on October 8, 2018 [16 favorites]

Can we not with this millionth WY hate-fest? It is a far more complex place demographically than people make it out to be, resettling a bunch of people there is a ridiculous idea for a number of reasons, and half of the rhetoric surrounding it is based on the kind of knee-jerk stereotypes that we'd look severely askance at if they were applied to e.g. New Yorkers.

I'm pretty sure based on my experience in other Western states
Seriously? C'mon.
posted by aspersioncast at 1:31 PM on October 8, 2018 [25 favorites]

The other option (3) is to have a large resettlement program to take over Idaho (pop 1,753,860[*]) and Wyoming (pop 573,720) and the Dakotas (pop 755,238 + 877,790) - and I don't see myself volunteering for the resettlement brigades. So.

I think this is actually a more tractable long-term strategy than it's given sometimes credit for. People are willing to move to Austin TX because it's artsy, cool, progressive, etc. Making places artsy and cool is not an impossible prospect and sometimes small towns in the middle of nowhere are actually easier to do that with than not because you can buy land/housing for very little for a while until they become popular. If you get people with the right vision and resources and pick somewhere with natural appealing beauty -- not that difficult in Idaho nor particularly impossible in Wyoming -- developing a community and growing it seems possible, maybe more possible than ever in an era where knowledge/creative work is less geography dependent.

Like all long-terms strategies, there's the question of whether the country survives in a recognizable form long enough to make it happen. This election should never for a moment be presumed safe because it is going to be absolutely crucial, as is fighting back the attempts to delegitimize it that Trump and his party/supporters are already lying about at full volume. If *that* succeeds, Democrats have to win statehouses across the majority of states by 2020 as well as national elections. If those things don't happen, the ballot box isn't going to be an adequate remedy, and I hope everybody is making backup plans for that case.
posted by wildblueyonder at 1:35 PM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

“Unorthodox strategies” is that what we’re calling fraud now?
posted by gucci mane at 1:36 PM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

oy I'm not hating, just an observation based on my some decades of life out west and reading about 19th century population trends during the western expansion. Granted, I know Oregon better than I do Wyoming so if WY doesn't have similar demographics, I totally apologize. That being said, there's a difference between waving one's arms about flyover country and making a specific point about demographics. I was trying to do the latter and granted, I did so sloppily.
posted by angrycat at 1:41 PM on October 8, 2018

I am really, really looking forward to seeing the fits pitched by the alt-righters who think of her as their aryan princess.

Ask and ye shall receive: ‘A betrayal beyond words’: The far right melts down over Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Democrats (WaPo)
posted by peeedro at 1:43 PM on October 8, 2018 [34 favorites]

I think this is actually a more tractable long-term strategy than it's given sometimes credit for. People are willing to move to Austin TX because it's artsy, cool, progressive, etc.

You might want to look at the mirror image of this idea - the Freestaters who thought they were going to take over New Hampshire and turn it into a libertarian paradise. They did get 20 members elected to the state legislature, but given that there are 400 state reps, that's not tilting the needle much. And their best known project - harassing meter maids in Keene - seems to have fizzled out.
posted by adamg at 1:46 PM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

> Ask and ye shall receive: ‘A betrayal beyond words’: The far right melts down over Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Democrats (WaPo)

How could you resist pull-quoting it?

The Washington Post’s language policies prevent linking to most of what 4chan had to say. Suffice to a say, a meme of Pepe the Frog openly weeping with a gun to his head appeared in one of the most popular threads, more or less summing up the mood.

But also:

... where there was not despondency, there was anger. “Nobody pisses off 4chan,” wrote MartianSpaceCat. “She will regret this move for that reason alone.”

posted by RedOrGreen at 1:48 PM on October 8, 2018 [9 favorites]

I have friends who live in Wyoming and saw them recently, they're reliably liberal, but registered as republicans because then they can at least vote for the more moderate R in the primary.

More broadly though, I think there are a lot of cities that are the "Austin" of their state - How big does Boise need to get to start purpling up Idaho?
posted by kevin is... at 1:56 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Ask and ye shall receive: ‘A betrayal beyond words’: The far right melts down over Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Democrats (WaPo)

They can cry on Kanye's and Big & Rich's shoulders.
posted by rhizome at 1:56 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

“The better part of my career in public life has been working with victims,” said Ms. Heitkamp, a former state attorney general. “Did you ask him how many victims during this process he actually sat down with, and survivors he sat down with, and visited with personally?”

Then Ms. Heitkamp’s voice grew thick with emotion.

“I think it’s wonderful that his wife has never had an experience, and good for her, and it’s wonderful his mom hasn’t,” she said. “My mom did. And I think it affected my mom her whole life. And it didn’t make her less strong.”

With tears welling in her eyes, Ms. Heitkamp stared intently at a reporter and continued:

“And I want you to put this in there, it did not make my mom less strong that she was a victim. She got stronger and she made us strong. And to suggest that this movement doesn’t make women strong and stronger is really unfortunate.”

Ms. Heitkamp’s mother, Doreen, died in April at 88 on what would have been her 66th wedding anniversary. The senator said her mother was sexually assaulted as a teenager.

Eric Levitz, The North Dakota Senate Race Is Becoming a Referendum on #MeToo.

Meanwhile, Kevin Cramer's lead has increased as he talks about how even if Kavanaugh did what he'd been accused of, it was "an attempt or something that never went anywhere.”
posted by joyceanmachine at 2:00 PM on October 8, 2018 [34 favorites]

@SteveKornacki: We've generally taken the existence of a gender gap between the parties as a given since Reagan-Carter in 1980, but the numbers in the new CNN poll are off the charts. Trump's job approval with men is +8 and with women -31 -- a 39-point chasm.

That same poll puts Kavanaugh's confirmation at 41% support, 51% opposed, with 52% saying they believe 38% Kavanaugh more and 52% his accusers.

Most interestingly: @bryanbennett85 [it's a thread with more worth reading behind the link]: CNN has not released generic ballot results yet, but among those most enthusiastic about voting in 2018, support for Kavanaugh confirmation is net -18. Support among less enthusiastic voters: -1. Seems counter to CW of backlash among previously unenthusiastic Republican voters.
posted by zachlipton at 2:00 PM on October 8, 2018 [14 favorites]

I think as soon as traditionally red states get purpler is when we start to see more split-electoral-vote states, like Nebraska did (pretty specifically to keep Omaha walled off, as far as I can tell.) I don't know if that's better or worse long term, considering the gerrymandered districts.
posted by nakedmolerats at 2:02 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

About the only thing WY and Oregon have in common is being pretty white and being West of the Mississippi.
posted by aspersioncast at 2:05 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Something that would change demographics over the long-term would be immigration. A bulk of traditional blue and pink collar jobs are in the suburbs now and there is also industrial/agricultural work in rural areas without a large resident workforce to sustain it (industrial/agricultural work like poultry plants, for example) -- and so, acting very rationally, for the last 10-20 years, immigrants, especially from Latin America, have followed work and housing availability and have tended more and more to settle in suburban and rural communities. If those trends were to continue, that would eventually be a large and fairly organic demographic shift. I actually don't know if immigrants or their descendants would necessarily be less conservative than any given white Christian from the same area, but I guess the Republicans were worried about it (or are just super racist, or both) -- because now we've also seen their attempts to put a stop to *that.*
posted by rue72 at 2:06 PM on October 8, 2018 [1 favorite]

> "... the alt-righters who think of her as their aryan princess."

What?

Taylor Swift, who successfully counter-sued the man who sexually assaulted her and then said she was lying about it? Taylor Swift, who considers Michelle Obama a role model? Who after Barack Obama's inauguration said, "I've never seen this country so happy about a political decision in my entire time of being alive. I'm so glad this was my first election."

Taylor Swift, who recorded a song for the Hope for Haiti Now album? Who's donated items for auction to the Elton John AIDS Foundation? Who has spoken out against LGBT discrimination and recorded a PSA against hate crimes after the murder of Larry King? Who invited Tegan and Sara to come perform at one of her concerts?

Is the alt-right just stupid, or ...

Oh, right. They are, yeah.
posted by kyrademon at 2:08 PM on October 8, 2018 [58 favorites]

Just want to remind anyone who needs to hear this that they are not obligated to torment themselves by following coverage of Trump and his Senate henchmen gloating over their victory.
posted by thelonius at 2:16 PM on October 8, 2018 [15 favorites]

@jeffmason1: .@realDonaldTrump says he is concerned about the Saudi journalist who has gone missing in Turkey. “I am concerned about it. I don’t like hearing about it,” he told reporters, responding to @Reuters. “Hopefully that will sort itself out. Right now nobody knows anything about it.”

It's amazing how quickly and consistently Trump goes from "I am solely deserving of praise for everything good happening in the world" to "passive guy with no agency who sits back and watches world affairs from the comfort of his TV chair" whenever anything happens.
posted by zachlipton at 2:26 PM on October 8, 2018 [21 favorites]

Rue72: I can tell you that in (much of) California, even more conservative immigrants and first-generation people fled the GOP after Pete Wilson (a proto-Tea Party type) shit the bed and salted the earth for the Republicans here. (Yes, we still got Ah-nold voted in, but he's an immigrant, and didn't try the social-conservative stuff that is the kiss of death in much of CA.)

And when you consider that, in general, in red and blue states alike, families are smaller, and we have an "age bulge" rather than a youth bulge, so we need immigrants to work, period - the robots aren't coming for our jobs just yet. We need to be rolling out the damn red carpet and offering incentives for immigrants to come here.

As far as small, red states like Wyoming are concerned: Wyoming, at least, is so thinly populated (fewer people in all of Wyoming than cities like NYC and SF) that if, for instance, Cheyenne (the state capital) and Laramie (nice little college town) could be built up as hipster havens, it could swamp the red rural parts. It also might have a nice side effect of relieving gentrification pressures in coastal cities. Boise is already on the hipster haven path, and Coeur d'Alene is gorgeous and has great potential, so why not Make Cheyenne and Coeur d'Alene Great Again? Isolation, weather (a Big Deal to fiftysomethings like me who might otherwise think a sweet college town in the Rockies would be a great retirement haven), and not wanting to be swamped in a sea of red.

The Big Sort is circular - people feel unwelcome in a place, so they congregate in like-minded places, which makes the isolation, clustering, and walling-off of blue cities/towns worse, rinse, repeat.

I think it would have to be a co-housing/commune type of endeavor. So if anyone wants to start a combo Golden Girls/Metafilter Cohousing With Kitties and Ponies/Socialist Haven in Cheyenne or someplace, that might be an idea.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 2:31 PM on October 8, 2018 [19 favorites]

Medusa faces the courthouse
posted by Artw at 2:36 PM on October 8, 2018 [21 favorites]

Crone Mountain?
posted by Daily Alice at 2:36 PM on October 8, 2018 [16 favorites]

Holy crap NYT, Mark Mazzetti, Ronen Bergman, David D. Kirkpatrick and Maggie Haberman, Trump Campaign Aide Requested Online Manipulation Plans From Israeli Intelligence Firm

A top Trump campaign official requested proposals in 2016 from an Israeli company to create fake online identities, to use social media manipulation and to gather intelligence to help defeat Republican primary race opponents and Hillary Clinton, according to interviews and copies of the proposals.

The Trump campaign’s interest in the work began as Russians were escalating their effort to aid Donald J. Trump. Though the Israeli company’s pitches were narrower than Moscow’s interference campaign and appear unconnected, the documents show that a senior Trump aide saw the promise of a disruption effort to swing voters in Mr. Trump’s favor.

The campaign official, Rick Gates, sought one proposal to use bogus personas to target and sway 5,000 delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention by attacking Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Mr. Trump’s main opponent at the time. Another proposal describes opposition research and “complementary intelligence activities” about Mrs. Clinton and people close to her, according to copies of the proposals obtained by The New York Times and interviews with four people involved in creating the documents.

A third proposal by the company, Psy-Group, which is staffed by former Israeli intelligence operatives, sketched out a monthslong plan to help Mr. Trump by using social media to help expose or amplify division among rival campaigns and factions. The proposals, part of what Psy-Group called “Project Rome,” used code names to identify the players — Mr. Trump was “Lion” and Mrs. Clinton was “Forest.” Mr. Cruz, who Trump campaign officials feared might lead a revolt over the Republican presidential nomination, was “Bear.”

There is no evidence that the Trump campaign acted on the proposals, and Mr. Gates ultimately was uninterested in Psy-Group’s work, a person with knowledge of the discussions said, in part because other campaign aides were developing a social media strategy. Psy-Group’s owner, Joel Zamel, did meet in August 2016 with Donald Trump Jr., Mr. Trump’s eldest son. Investigators working for Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel investigating Russia’s campaign to disrupt the 2016 election and whether any Trump associates conspired, have obtained copies of the proposals and questioned Psy-Group employees, according to people familiar with those interviews.

posted by zachlipton at 2:48 PM on October 8, 2018 [33 favorites]

hey google I was wondering about the last midterm election

36.6% of citizen eligible voters cast a ballot in the 2014 election, the lowest percentage in a midterm since World War II.

cool cool cool. anyway we definitely need to create new states or start woke liberal colonies in flyover states or maybe overthrow the government. there is no other way
posted by prize bull octorok at 3:00 PM on October 8, 2018 [48 favorites]

Investigators working for Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel investigating Russia’s campaign to disrupt the 2016 election and whether any Trump associates conspired, have obtained copies of the proposals and questioned Psy-Group employees, according to people familiar with those interviews.

huh on all of this. But is this the first leak from the Mueller investigation that we know of? hmmmmm on that one.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:00 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

If you read to the end, you'll find where the story gets really interesting, if more speculative. Psy-Group's owner, Joel Zamel, hawked his services to Don Jr. at Trump Tower in August 2016. Also there: George Nader, responsible for lots of other suspicious stuff, and Erik Prince. After Trump won, Nader paid Zamel something like $2 million dollars, for some reason or another, which leads to questions about whether all of Psy-Group's proposals were really not carried out.
posted by zachlipton at 3:00 PM on October 8, 2018 [15 favorites]

Mod note: One comment deleted - folks if you want to do science fiction about mass political migrations etc, make a separate thread for it.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 3:01 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

@mercedeslynz Scary times with a ukelele

It's a really scary time for dudes right now. So I wrote a song about it. Go #vote friends!
posted by bluesky43 at 3:07 PM on October 8, 2018 [12 favorites]

(Yes, we still got Ah-nold voted in, but he's an immigrant, and didn't try the social-conservative stuff that is the kiss of death in much of CA.)

Oh but he sort of did at first (vetoed a same-sex marriage bill) and then got his ass handed to him, mostly by unionized nurses and teachers, when he tried to ram some propositions through a special election. After that he cooled his heels and worked with the Democratic legislature.
posted by notyou at 3:09 PM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

Here's what has me frustrated with the rural/urban divide and the point about encouraging people to move to the deep red areas for the sake of federal control.

Like, okay, I'm an academic. I am highly mobile by definition. I would be quite happy to move to a rural area--if I could find a job there. My friends? Especially those from rural areas? Mostly, they leave those rural areas to find work.

I am honestly kind of boggled at the idea of choosing where you live based on where you want to live, as opposed to angling to get a job and then maybe seeing if your job allows you to transfer into areas or, more likely, moving for the sake of a job. Jobs control where people live, particularly in the absence of any kind of basic income.

Where are all these urban migrants supposed to do to get paid, again? How are we the precariat supposed to fucking finance this move?
posted by sciatrix at 3:10 PM on October 8, 2018 [55 favorites]

But is this the first leak from the Mueller investigation that we know of?

The article just references "people familiar with the interviews," it doesn't say which side of the table they were on.
posted by contraption at 3:11 PM on October 8, 2018 [6 favorites]

The most obvious source of the information are Psy-Group employees who were questioned. Mueller's team doesn't leak.
posted by Justinian at 3:18 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

Oh but he sort of did at first (vetoed a same-sex marriage bill) and then got his ass handed to him, mostly by unionized nurses and teachers, when he tried to ram some propositions through a special election. After that he cooled his heels and worked with the Democratic legislature.

Unions! ❤️❤️ (ok except for the police officer's union, they can go fly a kite.) If anyone is looking for a quick-n-dirty voter's guide, I always recommend the teachers' union and health-care workers union recommendations. Not "Concerned Teachers For Prosperity" or other bogus organizations, but [Your District] Teacher's Union, and your local SEIU-UHW. What is good for teachers is good for Democrats in general, and yes, I'm biased, because my mom was an elementary-school teacher and a lifelong proud union member, and she and my dad always voted how the Teacher's Union told them.
posted by Rosie M. Banks at 3:21 PM on October 8, 2018 [17 favorites]

For what it's worth, I know people who have moved to rural areas and small towns, and it has a lot to do with the way that the suburbs are expanding into formerly-rural areas as my state's economy reorients away from agriculture and towards the kind of jobs that are concentrated in (small, in our case) cities. People aren't moving out to the country because they want to farm: they're moving there because it's cheap, you can have a bigger house, and the commute is still manageable. I think that one mistake that people make is that they see "rural" and "urban" as fixed categories, and they're really not. That seems almost obvious, but because a lot of urban people have weird ideas about flyover states, it doesn't occur to them that this is true in Iowa, the same way it once was in New Jersey or the Chicago area.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 4:02 PM on October 8, 2018 [11 favorites]

If you get people with the right vision and resources and pick somewhere with natural appealing beauty -- not that difficult in Idaho nor particularly impossible in Wyoming -- developing a community and growing it seems possible, maybe more possible than ever in an era where knowledge/creative work is less geography dependent.

As other parts of the country begin to feel the effects of climate change, places like Idaho and Wyoming might become very attractive indeed.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:04 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

This ceremonial swearing in of Kavanuagh at the White House (which is not an actual thing that needs to happen, it's a campaign stunt, the man has already been sworn in for real) is even more gross than I imagined. All the other Justices are sitting in the front row.

Trump read off the names of all the Republicans on Judiciary and Susan Collins to specifically thank them, and thanks Don McGhan. He apologizes to Kavanaugh and his family "on behalf of the American people" and says he was "proven innocent" (he wasn't): "You, sir, under historic scrutiny, were proven innocent" (he was not).
posted by zachlipton at 4:16 PM on October 8, 2018 [19 favorites]

Reminder: Kavanaugh is a historically unpopular SCOTUS pick.

CNN's latest poll finds: "Overall, 51% in the poll oppose Kavanaugh's confirmation to the Supreme Court, up from 39% who opposed it in early September, after his initial confirmation hearing but before accusations of sexual misconduct emerged. Support for Kavanaugh's confirmation has merely inched up, by contrast, from 38% backing him in early September to 41% now." (Poll PDF)

Also, despite Trump's protestations of Kavanaugh's innocence (and Dr. Ford's "evil"), CNN's poll reveals: "All told, 52% of Americans say they believe the women accusing Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct over the judge's denials of those accusations (38% said they believed him more than the women). And half (50%) said they thought he lied about his alcohol use as a young adult, more than thought he was telling the truth about it (37%). Half say Kavanaugh's personal conduct has disqualified him to serve on the court, and 53% say his professional qualifications do not outweigh any questions about his personal conduct."
posted by Doktor Zed at 4:29 PM on October 8, 2018 [18 favorites]

Since 2012, according to his financial disclosures, Trump has owed more than $50 million to a company called Chicago Unit Acquisition LLC. The disclosures indicate that the debt is related to the Trump hotel in Chicago but do not require him to reveal the exact amount.

OOH.. That's some OG Old School financial fraud right there. Back in the 80's/90's you would do it with an offshore bank you owned.
posted by mikelieman at 4:39 PM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

> Trump read off the names of all the Republicans on Judiciary and Susan Collins to specifically thank them

And thus a thousand campaign ads were born.
posted by tonycpsu at 4:40 PM on October 8, 2018 [5 favorites]

Former Cambridge Analytica chief used N-word to describe Barbados PM: leaked papers reveal racist slur by Alexander Nix, who is pitching to run election campaigns in Caribbean (Guardian)
posted by Lyme Drop at 4:40 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

Wait, Judge Brett Kavanaugh Told Us He Was Non-Partisan and Impartial!

...a sitting Supreme Court justice—Kavanaugh already was sworn in on Saturday by the person who was supposed to do it, Chief Justice John Roberts—is going to participate willingly in a meaningless masquerade of a partisan campaign event. (We'll leave how disgusting it is that anyone besides Fox is going to televise this puppet show for another time.) Worse, it is a meaningless masquerade of a partisan campaign event that implies that a Supreme Court justice must be "sworn in" by the head of the Executive Branch, which, at the moment, is headed by someone as ill-suited to that office as Kavanaugh is to his.

If Kavanaugh was as dedicated to a non-partisan, independent judiciary as he claims to be, he'd have told the president*, politely, how completely unseemly this spectacle is. I'm telling you, I'm starting to wonder.

This is an obscene affront to the separation of powers. AKA Monday.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:49 PM on October 8, 2018 [41 favorites]

Wouldn't even hiring Psy to make the proposals be completely illegal for a campaign to do?!

Hiring foreigners to work for your campaign doing opposition research is not illegal if they are really just hired employees. But if "staffed by former Israeli intelligence operatives" means that the Israeli government actually had a hand in it, then that would be a hostile attack on the U.S. equivalent to the Russian interference.

What is unknown is if the staff were really "former" intelligence operatives or whether Psy-Group was just a Israeli government front for plausible deniability.
posted by JackFlash at 4:58 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

The New Yorker revisits the mysterious web traffic of the Trump-Alfa Bank servers affair and the question of covert communications: Was There a Connection Between a Russian Bank and the Trump Campaign? “Is it possible there is an innocuous explanation for all this?” [cyber investigator] Paul said. “Yes, of course. And it’s also possible that space aliens did this. It’s possible—just not very likely.”

I finally worked my way through this. I'll agree it wasn't random, but I'm just still extraordinarily skeptical of what "it" is. The server itself wasn't a Trump organization server; it was run by Listrak, a CRM/email marketing company, which makes it an odd choice for a backchannel. There are certainly a lot of deeply nefarious explanations, and the need for an explanation for how the DNS queries came to stop after reporters made inquiries is particularly important, it's just hard to know which one to go with absent some further information about the content, rather than just the metadata, and the only people in a position to figure that out are the feds, and there's nothing new in this reporting from them.

And this part still doesn't entirely make sense:

(Max and his colleagues did not see any D.N.S. evidence that the Trump Organization was attempting to access the server; they speculated that the organization was using a virtual private network, or V.P.N., a common security measure that obscures users’ digital footprints.)

You're only passing messages if both sides are accessing the server, but there's no evidence of a VPN connecting to the server either. Which means that either there was no VPN or the DNS data they're looking at is incomplete, and potentially missing other queries that could shed light on this. It's possible to say the Alfa Bank side was talking directly to the server while the Trump side was going through Cendyn or something, but the actual path by which messages would have traveled from Alfa to actual Trump people, instead of just to/from server controlled by a third-party marketing vendor that the Trump folks supposedly weren't using anymore, doesn't seem to be explained.

Which brings me to what I think is the more immediately interesting part of the story; what happened on Halloween 2016:

At the meeting, in late September, 2016, a roomful of officials told Lichtblau that they were looking into potential Russian interference in the election. According to a source who was briefed on the investigation, the Bureau had intelligence from informants suggesting a possible connection between the Trump Organization and Russian banks, but no data. The information from Max’s group could be a significant advance. “The F.B.I. was looking for people in the United States who were helping Russia to influence the election,” the source said. “It was very important to the Bureau. It was urgent.”

The F.B.I. officials asked Lichtblau to delay publishing his story, saying that releasing the news could jeopardize their investigation. As the story sat, Dean Baquet, the Times’ executive editor, decided that it would not suffice to report the existence of computer contacts without knowing their purpose. Lichtblau disagreed, arguing that his story contained important news: that the F.B.I. had opened a counterintelligence investigation into Russian contacts with Trump’s aides. “It was a really tense debate,” Baquet told me. “If I were the reporter, I would have wanted to run it, too. It felt like there was something there.” But, with the election looming, Baquet thought that he could not publish the story without being more confident in its conclusions.

Over time, the F.B.I.’s interest in the possibility of an Alfa Bank connection seemed to wane. An agency official told Lichtblau that there could be an innocuous explanation for the computer traffic. Then, on October 30th, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid wrote a letter to James Comey, the director of the F.B.I., charging that the Bureau was withholding information about “close ties and coordination” between the Trump campaign and Russia. “We had a window,” Lichtblau said. His story about Alfa Bank ran the next day. But it bore only a modest resemblance to what he had filed. The headline— “Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia”—seemed to exonerate the Trump campaign. And, though the article mentioned the server, it omitted any reference to the computer scientists who had told Lichtblau that the Trump Organization and Alfa Bank might have been communicating. “We were saying that the investigation was basically over—and it was just beginning,” Lichtblau told me.

October 31st, 2016 was, even by the standards of the hell we're living in, an insane news day. I made the horrible mistake of going back to the one place I knew I could find a chronological summary of that day: the megathread (as for the pre-election megathreads, stay away: this place is not a place of honor. no highly esteemed deed is commemorated here). For context, we're three days after Comey sent his letter. Within maybe four hours that evening, we had:

Franklin Foer's Was a Trump Server Communicating With Russia?
David Corn's A Veteran Spy Has Given the FBI Information Alleging a Russian Operation to Cultivate Donald Trump (the first story to report on the dossier, a day after Harry Reid did his Harry Reid thing and insinuated its existence while blasting ComeyN)
NBC News's FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source (first story reporting on the hypocrisy of Comey keeping the Russia investigation secret while sending the emails letter, which also indicates the existence of the Russia investigation)
NBC News's FBI Making Inquiry Into Ex-Trump Campaign Manager's Foreign Ties (FBI opens a "preliminary inquiry" into Manafort's foreign connections)
NYT's Donald Trump Used Legally Dubious Method to Avoid Paying Taxes (the Times obtains some of Trump's tax documents)
And there was also stuff like a leaked tape of Sen. Burr joking about people shooting Clinton that nobody had time for.

And then there it was, ending the evening...U.S. Officials Doubt Donald Trump Has Direct Link to Russia (the headline would later be changed to "Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia"). And it rather threw a bucket of cold water over everything. The real news, as the Times would eventually acknowledge a year and a half later, was buried deep in the story all along: the FBI opened a major investigation into links between the Trump campaign and Russia, but nobody cared much at the time. A half dozen stories, a week before the election, none entirely ready for prime time, some, like the Alfa Bank server, just seeming downright weird, and here was a seemingly authoritative report from the Times casting doubt on everything we read that night, nobody had time for this. And soon enough, there would be more emails news, and all this stuff just got set aside until after the election. But a number of these stories laid out the, ultimately accurate, basis for years of further reporting, investigations, and indictments.

The Times has acknowledged that it got a lot wrong here, but one thing that's never been entirely explored here is whether they were being actively misled by their sources into downplaying the Russia investigation, which Comey went to great lengths to keep secret while blabbing on about the emails, or whether the failure was entirely one of their own making in editing. I'd still like to know.

I also remain pretty concerned about the privacy implications of a secret DNS log cabal and would like to hear more about that.
posted by zachlipton at 5:03 PM on October 8, 2018 [50 favorites]

We fixed the Senate elections once, and if we hadn't this article surmises we'd be worse off.

https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/what-would-senate-look-like-without-the-17th-amendment
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 5:20 PM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

There was also a server in Grand Rapids, Michigan, at Spectrum Health, that communicated with the server in Trump Tower. If I remember correctly, the Alpha Bank and Spectrum Health contacts totalled over 90% (maybe 99%?) of the activity of the server in Trump Tower. Spectrum Health has ties to the Devos family, as in Betsy Devos (her brother is Erik Prince of Blackwater and the meetings with Russians in the Seychelles).
From March 10, 2017: Reported computer activity "between Spectrum Health and a server affiliated with the Trump Organization has been brought into the spotlight as an investigation continues into whether a connection was made between the Trump Organization and a Russian bank, CNN reported this week.

According to CNN, internet data shows a computer server owned by Russian-based Alfa Bank looked up the contact information for a computer server being used by the Trump Organization, mail1.trump-email.com. The bank is reported to have looked up the address 2,820 times, while a Spectrum Health server reportedly looked up the address 714 times."
posted by W Grant at 5:27 PM on October 8, 2018 [8 favorites]

Where are all these urban migrants supposed to do to get paid, again? How are we the precariat supposed to fucking finance this move?

In my field: computer-based jobs that can be done remotely. I don't have a remote type job currently but it's always an option for me, and an increasingly tempting one. This option is becoming more attractive all the time as the technology improves and big cities become more expensive and inconvenient. I like nature, scenery, peace and quiet . . . I would love to live somewhere gorgeous and cheap where I can have a decent house on a decent chunk of land. As long as the internet is good enough- which is really the main limiting factor. I used to figure maybe I'd end up in Oregon or Washington but there's really no reason I couldn't do the same thing in Utah, Montana or Wyoming. It's not for everyone. It doesn't have to be. But honestly I believe small towns in scenic places are going to just keep growing in popularity as the technology to work remotely steadily improves. Someplace is gonna be the next Portland. Boise? Who the hell knows? But truly, there are people out there who want to live in the middle of nowhere, and have jobs that allow them to! This was a deliberate choice on my part, having that flexibility, and it's nice to think I could use that flexibility for good. It's okay if you can't do this or don't want to but don't just assume nobody would because that isn't true. And the good thing is, in places where the population is really low, it wouldn't even take that many people to start to move the needle.

I think people get het up about this topic because they don't like the insinuation that they personally need to upheave their life to go live in the middle of nowhere which they would hate. So please remember- you don't have to, seriously, it's okay. No judgment. The people who want to will. We may be few but we do exist.
posted by robotdevil at 5:44 PM on October 8, 2018 [13 favorites]

I also remain pretty concerned about the privacy implications of a secret DNS log cabal and would like to hear more about that.

You probably want to read up on passive DNS and the Security Information Exchange, then. I used to have (but no longer do) access to SIE information. The aggregation process for SIE information is intended to preserve the privacy of individual clients but one can still learn some very interesting things from the aggregate data.
posted by Nerd of the North at 5:53 PM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

Watching these NYT/Siena polls is bad for my mental health. So many are coming back with Republicans in the lead by a couple points now. I know why that is; they were polling a lot of Lean-D and pure tossups before and the Democrats were ahead by 7+ points in every lean-D district. So now they are polling a lot more Lean-R districts and basically no Lean-D districts. You would expect Republicans to be ahead in most Lean-R districts.

Yeah, I understand. The sea of red still makes me panicky. I wish they would poll some Lean-D districts just so I can get a "Democrat has a decent lead" fix 'cause it's sure not happening otherwise.
posted by Justinian at 6:17 PM on October 8, 2018 [7 favorites]

It sure would be nice, if, after that fucking charade of a press conference, the majority of this nation that Trump does NOT speak for had a leader of some sort who would speak up on our behalf, someone who would tell us that women and our experiences still matter, that people still care. Because it sure as hell doesn't feel that way. The silence right now is deafening.

As Mia Farrow tweeted earlier, "Thinking of Christine Blasey Ford right now, who can't return home because of death threats." At that time, the president was on every channel saying her abuser had been "found innocent."
posted by triggerfinger at 6:34 PM on October 8, 2018 [32 favorites]

I hope a university in somewhere lovely like the Netherlands offers Dr Ford and her husband and her kids a place far away from America.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 6:40 PM on October 8, 2018 [14 favorites]

I get where you're coming from but personally I hope we can do better than "she and her family were driven into exile."
posted by Nerd of the North at 6:48 PM on October 8, 2018 [43 favorites]

Franklin Foer looks back on his Alfa Bank server story and reflects on today's New Yorker reporting in Suspended Animation in the Age of Trump: "Before Donald Trump was elected, I reported about strange activity linking a Trump campaign computer server to Moscow. A new report shows how much has changed since 2016—and how many questions still remain." He's refreshingly transparent about how little we've learned

The hard evidence, alas, reveals more about the motives of the central characters than the shape of the narrative. There’s hard and fast proof that Trump’s innermost circle was more than willing to work with the Russians. And there’s hard and fast proof that the Russians wanted to sway the American electorate on Trump’s behalf. Each of these is incredible facts; each is a historic scandal unto itself. And each of these fact patterns suggests, but only suggests, that these two parties likely met in the middle to conspire. But what really happened there? Is there a crime at the center of the narrative? After two years, those of us not working for Robert Mueller are not that much closer to knowing the answer—and, given the implications, it’s almost physically painful to live with the unfilled holes in the plot.
...
Bashing the Times is easy sport—and nearly everybody engages in it. (I have done it myself.) But over time, I have grown empathetic to the Times’s decision not to publish the Lichtblau story. The truth is that my story was provisional, about facts that were explosive but not conclusive. (And we were dealing with characters who had a proclivity for filing lawsuits.) While I felt pressed toward publication by the urgency of the election, the Times has reasons to use its reportorial capital cautiously. That the paper yields to prudence, and sometimes refrains from gratuitous risks, bolsters it authority when it publishes huge scoops about Harvey Weinstein or Donald Trump’s finances.

But in this instance, the paper decided to broadly dismiss the Alfa Bank story, even when its own star reporter had such strong belief in it and when it had evidence that (at the very least) complicated the F.B.I.’s assessment. And what felt unseemly is that the paper’s executive editor publicly bickered with the Times ombudsman who criticized the paper as “too timid in its decisions not to publish the material it had.” It also stung that he trashed my story after the fact. “That is not journalism. It is typing,” Dean Baquet told The Washington Post’s Erik Wemple, responding to critics on the day after the Trump inauguration.

Something has apparently changed Baquet’s thinking since then. One of the most interesting moment in today’s New Yorker piece is that Baquet seems to now concede that the server story wasn’t crazy to pursue. “It felt like there was something there,” he told Filkins.
...
Still, there’s something unnerving about the fact that the New Yorker came away with the same conclusion I did, given all we know now that we didn’t in October 2016: That the communication between the Trump server and Moscow wasn’t something random; that it’s a mystery worthy of pursuit. This is remarkable. Several years into the scandal, journalism hasn’t brought us that much closer to the ultimate answers at the heart of the matter.

posted by zachlipton at 6:49 PM on October 8, 2018 [22 favorites]

Hiring foreigners to work for your campaign doing opposition research is not illegal if they are really just hired employees.

My understanding is that at least half the staff have to be Americans. I also believe they need to have a branch in the United States. I remember reading this when reading a bunch of articles about Trump's working with Cambridge Analytica.

But if "staffed by former Israeli intelligence operatives" means that the Israeli government actually had a hand in it, then that would be a hostile attack on the U.S. equivalent to the Russian interference. What is unknown is if the staff were really "former" intelligence operatives or whether Psy-Group was just a Israeli government front for plausible deniability.

They're former. This is the same group that Trump hired to harass the Democrat that worked on the treaty with Iran. I read about them then. But... they're hired to do political hit-jobs almost exclusively. This isn't hiring a run of the mill consultancy. You hire them to do dirty work, and to keep quiet about it.
posted by xammerboy at 6:55 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

NYT, Migrant Children in Search of Justice: A 2-Year-Old’s Day in Immigration Court

The youngest child to come before the bench in federal immigration courtroom No. 14 was so small she had to be lifted into the chair. Even the judge in her black robes breathed a soft “aww” as her latest case perched on the brown leather.

Her feet stuck out from the seat in small gray sneakers, her legs too short to dangle. Her fists were stuffed under her knees. As soon as the caseworker who had sat her there turned to go, she let out a whimper that rose to a thin howl, her crumpled face a bursting dam.

The girl, Fernanda Jacqueline Davila, was 2 years old: brief life, long journey. The caseworker, a big-boned man from the shelter that had been contracted to raise her since she was taken from her grandmother at the border in late July, was the only person in the room she had met before that day.
...
The judge ended each hearing with words of encouragement: “Good luck.” “Buena suerte,” repeated the translator, child after child.

posted by zachlipton at 7:02 PM on October 8, 2018 [45 favorites]

Harry Enten, stealing my observation: Dems are losing in every poll I think the NYT has in the field right now. I don't remember that happening. Granted, this is lean GOP turf mostly.

Timestamp; roughly 30 minutes after my previous comment. Every poll they have out right now except for Nevada-Senate is lean-Likely R territory. And for whatever reason Rosen has never been able to put Heller away even before the last 2 weeks. Still... no sir, I don't like it.
posted by Justinian at 7:04 PM on October 8, 2018 [3 favorites]

Even the judge in her black robes breathed a soft “aww” as her latest case perched on the brown leather.

The banality.
posted by Rust Moranis at 7:04 PM on October 8, 2018 [50 favorites]

Also.. Where is the press who should be pushing back on this "found innocent" crap? It started last week, before the vote, with "we had a very thorough investigation," which I'm sure people here remember:

• was arbitrarily limited in time to one week
• didn't even use the full week
• didn't interview either the principle accuser or the accused
• ignored some of the accusations completely
• reportedly did not contact multiple other parties who came forward to offer information
• was reported to have been severely limited in scope in accordance with constraints imposed on the FBI by the White House counsel

To top it off, the "investigation" delivered no public findings and the description of the findings that was reported by the White House and Judiciary Committee leadership was disputed by the Democrats, who were apparently not at liberty to deliver more specific refutation.

And now, having not received any substantial pushback on "we had a proper investigation," they've proceeded to claiming a finding of innocence? There was no trial (not that there ever would have been) and no proper investigation. "Found innocent" is not even a thing which happens in the American judicial system but even aside from that he does not get to claim Kavanaugh was exonerated when his side stonewalled to prevent any real investigation and a trial was never on the table.

And this is not a moot point. Many people are buying this framing because one side is pushing it hard and nobody from the other side is explaining the difference on 24x7 television news programming.
posted by Nerd of the North at 7:08 PM on October 8, 2018 [43 favorites]

Hey, everyone, I have a Mefi Project that might be of interest to you. Suggestions and corrections welcome in Memail.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:12 PM on October 8, 2018 [23 favorites]

The sea of red still makes me panicky.

It's not a sea of red, it's a very shallow puddle.

Is the US Leaning Red or Blue? It All Depends on Your Map
posted by kirkaracha at 7:14 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

As Mia Farrow tweeted earlier, "Thinking of Christine Blasey Ford right now, who can't return home because of death threats." At that time, the president was on every channel saying her abuser had been "found innocent."

As Rachel Sklar notes, where the hell are Kavanaugh, Trump, Grassley, McConnell, Collins, any of them on this? They all won, they got their lifetime appointment, they just had the victory party, and most of them even say they believe Dr. Ford was abused by someone. So isn't the very least they can do to put out a statement telling people to stop threatening her? Shouldn't the Judiciary Committee give a crap that their own witness is being threatened?

Of course not, because the cruelty is the point.
posted by zachlipton at 7:18 PM on October 8, 2018 [45 favorites]

zachlipton: " Seems counter to CW of backlash among previously unenthusiastic Republican voters."

I remain skeptical of the "GOP turnout will surge because of Kavanaugh!" takes.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:21 PM on October 8, 2018 [16 favorites]

nakedmolerats: "I think as soon as traditionally red states get purpler is when we start to see more split-electoral-vote states, like Nebraska did (pretty specifically to keep Omaha walled off, as far as I can tell.)"

FWIW, Nebraska put this system in place in 1996.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:24 PM on October 8, 2018 [2 favorites]

Do you not think there has been movement towards R in the red states in the last two weeks, Chrysostom? Or do you attribute that to partisanship typically kicking in at the end of a long campaign season?

I've always been pretty clear, if relatively tactful about it, that I thought pouring so much blood, sweat, tears, and CASH into places like Texas and Tennessee was not an optimal midterm strategy. We're starting to see that pan out, I think.
posted by Justinian at 7:27 PM on October 8, 2018

Re: engagment: I think it's a) too soon to tell, and b) remains to be seen if, in the case where it IS GOP increased engagement, that is sustained. It's easier to remain activated if you are angry. If I am Joe Republican, I got what I wanted already. I could be wrong - obviously! - but it feels a little wishful thinking on the part of the right.

My view on midterm strategy is - there's a limited number of Senate races in play. There has been a TON of money raised all around - Heitkamp's numbers are not a function of not having the cash. We may as well take a shot at the reach seats, because otherwise we guarantee failure (I believe there is a musical about this). PLUS, there is a historically shown correlation between excitement at the top of the ballot and better performance downballot. If a million Beto ads don't get us TX Senate, but help push two House seats and a couple of legislative seats over the line, it's worth it.

There's a grain of truth to the Wasserman cavil that Dems aren't funding some good House race shots, but that money isn't totally fungible. People donate when they see an ad or something that excites them - like the one where Gosar's family says he sucks. Gosar isn't going to lose, so the money his opponent got is "wasted"...except that absent the ad, that money would mostly not get donated at all, not go to someone else.

Basically, I don't see a whole lot I would do differently. I think we're mostly doing what we can where we can.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:46 PM on October 8, 2018 [16 favorites]

Further, I guess I'd say - a month is a really long time in politics, especially in the current hellscape. Kavanaugh is off the table, Trump has plenty of time to start fucking up again.
posted by Chrysostom at 7:50 PM on October 8, 2018 [10 favorites]

The judge ended each hearing with words of encouragement: “Good luck.” “Buena suerte,” repeated the translator, child after child.

We're all going to hell and we'll deserve it
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 7:59 PM on October 8, 2018 [28 favorites]

I've always been pretty clear, if relatively tactful about it, that I thought pouring so much blood, sweat, tears, and CASH into places like Texas and Tennessee was not an optimal midterm strategy.

Speaking as someone in a state that the GOP has largely given up on in favor of holding the line in Texas and Tennessee, it might just work out.
posted by Etrigan at 8:04 PM on October 8, 2018 [17 favorites]

Is Ted Cruz "Tough As Texas"?, a new ad for the "Fire Ted Cruz PAC" directed by Richard Linklater: "If somebody called my wife a dog and said my daddy was in on the Kennedy assassination, I wouldn't be kissing their ass."
posted by zachlipton at 8:36 PM on October 8, 2018 [79 favorites]

Kanye West Expected to Visit Trump at the White House. This will happen on Thursday, also featuring Jared. West reportedly wants to discuss job opportunities for ex-cons and manufacturing jobs in the Chicago area, which is laudable if it is to be believed, but maybe he could bring along an expert or two and amplify their voices instead of making it entirely about himself when he has a new album soon?

Alternatively: @dandrezner: With everything happening in Saudi Arabia, now would be an excellent time for Jared Kushner to step up and HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
posted by zachlipton at 8:44 PM on October 8, 2018 [12 favorites]

ELECTIONS NEWS

** 2018 House:

-- PA-16: Siena poll has GOP incumbent up 50-42 on Dem DiNicola [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 58-38 | Cook: Lean R]

-- PA-07: DeSales University poll has Dem Wild up 5031 on GOPer Nothstein [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Clinton 49-48 | Cook: Lean D]

-- NC-09: Survey USA poll has Dem McCready up 45-41 on GOPer Harris [MOE: +/- 4.7%]. [Trump 54-43 | Cook: Tossup] => Interesting contrast to the recent Siena poll, which had Harris up 47-42.

-- IL-13: GBA Strategies poll has GOP incumbent Davis up 49-48 on Dem Londrigan [MOE: +/- 4.4%]. Poll was commissioned by the Londrigan campaign. [Trump 50-44 | Cook: Lean R]

-- NY-01: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Zeldin up 49-41 on Dem Gershon [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. [Trump 55-42 | Cook: Likely R]

-- CA-39: Tulchin Research poll has Dem Cisneros up 48-47 on GOPer Kim [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Cisneros campaign. [Clinton 52-43 | Cook: Tossup]

--NM-02: Tarrance Group poll has GOPer Herrell up 49-45 on Dem Torres-Small [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Terrell campaign. [Trump 50-40 | Cook: Tossup]

-- TX-23: GS Strategy poll has GOP incumbent Hurd up 55-30 on Dem Ortiz-Jones [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by a GOP SuperPAC. [Clinton 50-46 | Cook: Lean R]

-- IL-06: Garin-Hart-Yang poll has Dem Casten up 49-44 on GOP incumbent Roskam [MOE: +/- 4.9%]. Poll was commissioned by the Casten campaign. [Clinton 50-43 | Cook: Tossup]

-- IL-14: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Hultgren up 47-43 on Dem Underwood [MOE: +/- 4.6%]. [Trump 49-45 | Cook: Lean R]

-- NC-13: Siena poll has GOP incumbent Budd up 47-41 on Dem Manning [MOE: +/- 4.8%]. [Trump 53-44 | Cook: Tossup]

-- WP poll of 67 battleground districts has Dems up 50-46 on GOP candidates. Those same districts were 56-41 GOP in 2016. Men were GOP+5; women were Dem+14.

-- 538: House and Senate moving in different directions is unusual, but not unprecedented.

-- Silver: Super high Dem fundraising is problematic for the model; it's not yet clear how much it means for outcomes.

-- Today's 538 generic ballot average is D+7.8 (49.2/41.4)

** 2018 Senate:

-- TX: Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Cruz up 47-42 on Dem O'Rourke [MOE: +/- 4.5%]. [Cook: Tossup]

** Odds & ends:

-- Survey USA poll of NC Supreme Court has Dem Earls at 43%, Dem-disguised as an R Anglin at 22%, GOP incumbent Jackson at 15% [MOE: +/- 5.0%].. Like all things North Carolina, there is a very complicated backstory here, but basically a GOP attempt to rig the Supreme Court looks to be failing, and we'll be expanding a Dem majority, regardless. If this holds, this will be terrific news. | Downballot, generic legislative is D+5.

-- OK gov: Cole Hargrave Snodgrass poll has GOPer Stitt up 46-40 on Dem Edmondson [MOE: +/- 4.3%]. [Cook: Lean R]

-- AK gov: Alaska Survey Research poll has GOPer Dunleavy at 47, indy incumbent Walker at 27, and Dem Begich at 23 [MOE: +/- 4.r%]. [Cook: Lean R]

-- TX gov: Same Emerson poll has GOP incumbent Abbott up 55-33 on Dem Valdez. [Cook: Solid R]

-- Dems are running in 87.9% of state legislative races, versus 77.1% in 2014. GOP is 79.2%; in 2014, they were at 79.6%.

posted by Chrysostom at 9:24 PM on October 8, 2018 [18 favorites]

Just as a final thought on Kavanaugh/GOP surge stuff, this thread sums up about where I'm at. I'm open to more evidence, but not yet convinced it's the real deal:

CNN has not released generic ballot results yet, but among those most enthusiastic about voting in 2018, support for Kavanaugh confirmation is net -18. Support among less enthusiastic voters: -1. Seems counter to CW of backlash among previously unenthusiastic Republican voters. *Perhaps* Republican voters will overall be more likely to vote as a result of the Kavanaugh battle, and *perhaps* that will hold through November, but I think this narrative became prevailing prematurely, and data was widely mixed on this question.

Conflicting how? Some landscape metrics - Trump approval has ticked up slightly, the generic ballot lead has tightened a tiny bit in the last two weeks. Yet the Kavanaugh story has been utterly dominant and he has clearly only grown more unpopular/less supported for confirmation. A Pew Research survey conducted after Dr. Ford's accusations, but prior to the hearing, found Democrats saying Supreme Court nominations are very important to their vote at a greater rate than Republicans (81% to 72%). A Morning Consult survey conducted around the hearing found Democrats much less likely to support candidates who voted to confirm Kavanaugh, particularly Democratic women, at a greater rate than Republicans who were much more likely to support candidates supporting Kavanaugh.

The hearing was *only 11 days ago*. Last week was nuts because both supporters *and* opponents of Kavanaugh thought he might not make it. He did, which means (1) We need to assess now his confirmation impacts November. Could be *very* different this week with a known result. And (2) the Kavanaugh story, unlike almost any other story in the last 2 years, had unusually long staying power in the news. What replaces it? Trump personally has been largely out of the news because of Kavanaugh. Historically, that has actually helped his approval ratings.

To that point, this seems like a very good Take: [Nate Silver: To put it another way, not sure you can reject the null hypothesis that polls are changing because some of the rough Trump news cycles from the summer (e.g. Manafort/Cohen) are fading from memory, plus partisanship is kicking in, as it typically does toward the end of a campaign.]

All this to say: parsing these conflicting trends is incredibly difficult. I suspect polling will reflect heightened enthusiasm from Democrats (particularly Dem women) in the coming days because of Kavanaugh's confirmation but that's a guess *possibly* supported by this CNN poll. And who knows what will drive the news for 29 more days. Who the hell even knows. The end.

posted by Chrysostom at 9:31 PM on October 8, 2018 [26 favorites]

Buzzfeed: Taylor Swift's Instagram Post Has Caused A Massive Spike In Voter Registration

Since Taylor Swift flexed her star power Sunday with an Instagram post that encouraged her 112 million followers to register to vote, Vote.org has experienced an unprecedented flood of new voter registrations nationwide.

“We are up to 65,000 registrations in a single 24-hour period since T. Swift's post,” said Kamari Guthrie, director of communications for Vote.org

In Swift’s home state of Tennessee, where Swift voiced support for two Democratic candidates running in this year's midterms, voter registrations have also jumped.

“Vote.org saw [Tennessee] registrations spike specifically since Taylor's post," Guthrie said. The organization has gotten 5,183 in the state so far this month — at least 2,144 of which were in the last 36 hours, she said, up from 2,811 new Tennessee voter registrations for the entire month of September.

posted by Chrysostom at 9:41 PM on October 8, 2018 [100 favorites]

CNN has not released generic ballot results yet

CNN could help us see a trend or lack thereof if they would release the generic ballot they undoubtedly conducted along with the rest of their poll! You can't tell me they didn't!
posted by Justinian at 10:35 PM on October 8, 2018 [4 favorites]

@stefschwartz: last night at the bar a man tried to grab me by the shoulder to ask if he could buy me a drink and his friend was like "nah dude you can't just kavanaugh her like that."

anyway that's the second time i've heard it used as a verb by a man this week.
posted by cendawanita at 3:41 AM on October 9, 2018 [72 favorites]

Christian nationalism, explained through one pro-Trump propaganda film

Tara Isabella Burton | Vox

But the fact that one of the most powerful evangelical institutions in the country has spent time and money on what is, essentially, Christian nationalist propaganda should be worrying in its own right. So too is the fact that so many disparate players in the evangelical world, from New Apostolic Reformation prosperity gospel preachers to “old school” evangelical stalwarts like Falwell and Robertson, have combined forces (with Trump’s implicit approval) into a Trumpist religious-media complex.

The Trump Prophecy is not a good movie. In fact, it’s a terrible movie. But it’s necessary watching as a window into the world of Christian nationalism in America.

For now, for those outside the world of conservative white evangelicalism, that world may be nothing more than a curiosity. But it might not be for long.

posted by Barack Spinoza at 5:16 AM on October 9, 2018 [10 favorites]

Maciej Cegłowski reports on his work raising money for progressive Democrats in red districts: Portrait of a Campaign.
posted by panic at 5:56 AM on October 9, 2018 [22 favorites]

Maciej Cegłowski reports on his work raising money for progressive Democrats in red districts: Portrait of a Campaign.

This article is excellent (really long, stick with it) and I urge to you read it and share it.

For the tl;dr crew, here is the list of 13 progressive candidates listed in the article who can probably win if they can get get the money.

I'd like to note that Maine's own Jared Golden is on this list. ME District 2 was blue for a long time. We need funding to make it blue again. While people continue to give to oppose Collins, the Golden campaign needs funding -- and if he wins he would represent Collins' home district.
posted by anastasiav at 6:39 AM on October 9, 2018 [20 favorites]

Is Ted Cruz "Tough As Texas"?, a new ad for the "Fire Ted Cruz PAC" directed by Richard Linklater: "If somebody called my wife a dog and said my daddy was in on the Kennedy assassination, I wouldn't be kissing their ass."

On the one hand, oh great, some more tough guy bullshit is just what the world needs this year.

On the other hand, (a) at this point I'd pick up the villain's cursed sword and damn myself if that gets us a win and (2) there's a lot of okay ground between "don't share a meatloaf with people who are abusive gaslighter shitbags" and toxic masculinity. So perhaps that needle can be threaded without full testosterone poisoning.
posted by phearlez at 6:50 AM on October 9, 2018 [11 favorites]

Nathaniel Rakich, 538: A Big Blue Wave Could Overwhelm The GOP’s Advantage In The House

It’s like a switch is thrown at D+8 that causes actual Democratic seat gain to go from behind their popular-vote gain pace to well ahead of it...Republicans’ structural advantage in how districts are drawn (gerrymandering, as well as the phenomenon of self-sorting, whereby Democrats tend to cluster in cities, which are already heavily Democratic) begins to erode. That advantage normally allows Republicans to keep control of the House while still losing the popular vote by a modest margin. But if Republicans lose the popular vote by too much, their firewall might break all at once, and Democratic gains could multiply.

He then goes on to state-by-state analyses.

Cautionary notes: The scenarios Rakich is examining involve the Democrats winning the popular vote in the midterms by 9 points or better. The current generic ballot average has Dems up by just under 8%. Secondly, he's just looking at popular vote margins and the way Congressional district maps are drawn. About my own state, Rakich writes, "Virginia’s current congressional map is a hybrid of a Republican plan from 2011 and a court-drawn revision from 2016; in the commonwealth, Democrats pick up no seats in a D+3 scenario but zoom up to four wins if Democrats win the national popular vote by 13."

Being familiar with the state and living in one of the toss-up districts there, I think we could win three districts even in a modest Dem wave. District 10 is an almost certain Dem pickup. In district 5, a well-organized and well-funded Democratic candidate is facing a weak Republican candidate after the incumbent dropped out. (Most of you probably know the Republican as big-foot erotica guy.) District 2 is a very swingy district where the Republican incumbent has a major scandal and members of his campaign are under investigation for possible felony changes. Picking up these districts probably won't imply much about how the country is going as a whole (unless we win them by large margins).

But, Rakich is right about a four-seat gain in VA, if we also flip district 7, where a strong Democratic challenger is in an uphill battle with a tea-party incumbent in a Republican-leaning suburban and rural district, and nothing particularly weird has happened, it's probably going to be a bad night for Republican's. So if you're watching the East-Cost returns on election night, keep an eye on VA's 7th.
posted by nangar at 7:00 AM on October 9, 2018 [9 favorites]

Nikki Haley rumoured out at UN
posted by PenDevil at 7:11 AM on October 9, 2018 [8 favorites]

Axios: Trump has accepted Nikki Haley's resignation. Given Axios' track record with reported resignations, I'm not sure this goes beyond rumor. Still, I didn't think Haley was likely to leave this early.
posted by gladly at 7:12 AM on October 9, 2018 [6 favorites]

NYT Trump-whisperer Haberman confirms Axios report.
posted by anastasiav at 7:15 AM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

Is she making way for Jared?
posted by orrnyereg at 7:16 AM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

Minnesota Mefites: Did you know that you can donate $50 to any candidate running for office in MN for free?

This election cycle I decided that donating money would be more effective for me than volunteering to knock on doors. I have a newborn at home which makes it hard to find the time.

I finally got around to putting my money where my mouth is after the wife of the dem candidate running for state representative for my district knocked on my door. She was very nice and her husband seems like he'll do a great job. The candidate's donation page reminded me that in MN you can donate up to $50 per person (or $100 per married couple if you want to file jointly). Get a receipt from the campaign and file the form found on this site to get reimbursed.

I need to donate some more money and I prefer to donate directly to the campaigns, I'm just not sure where it will be most effective. I may end up taking the lazy route and just donating to ActBlue which seems to align with my goals for where to donate.
posted by VTX at 7:16 AM on October 9, 2018 [24 favorites]

I wonder, did Nikki Haley jump post-Kavanaugh as a matter of "principle" to line herself up for a 2020 run?

Seems a strange time for Trump to kick her to the curb. Other than the fact that he just really hates women.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:26 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

Superior ruthlessness isn’t why Republicans control the Supreme Court - Matthew Yglesias, Vox

They had some good luck — and, most importantly, they had the votes.

Specifically, luck over the past few decades, all the way back to George H. W. Bush.

Democrats should be smart, not fight dirty

The current vogue for rhetoric about “fighting dirty” is dangerous because it risks further destabilizing the political system but also because it risks discrediting ideas that are perfectly defensible on the merits.

Statehood for the District of Columbia, for example, is a completely reasonable idea that Republicans have been blocking because they are “fighting dirty” but are denying fair representation rights to hundreds of thousands of people. Democrats really should push this idea if they have the chance, but they should do it because it’s the right thing to do, not because they need to be ruthless. Similarly, if a fair referendum indicates that the people of Puerto Rico want to be a state, there is no reason to deny them their aspiration — and certainly no reason for advocates of the idea to characterize it as a form of ruthlessness.

posted by ZeusHumms at 7:26 AM on October 9, 2018 [37 favorites]

Taylor Swift's Instagram Post Has Caused A Massive Spike In Voter Registration

Not to pour cold water on this, but there are registration deadlines coming up in a lot of states this week, and there's been a concerted effort to spread this information on Social Media.
posted by schmod at 7:26 AM on October 9, 2018 [7 favorites]

The current vogue for rhetoric about “fighting dirty” is dangerous because it risks further destabilizing the political system but also because it risks discrediting ideas that are perfectly defensible on the merits.

I think he's completely wrong on this. Actions need to have consequences. If you get away with misbehavior because the other side is still playing by Marquess of Queensberry Rules, it's not exactly going to discourage you.

I'd argue the credible threat of 'fighting dirty' can also serve as a deterrent for future bad behavior.

TLDR: Lysa Arryn: "You don't fight with honor!" Bronn: "No... he did."
posted by leotrotsky at 7:36 AM on October 9, 2018 [14 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted. Let me suggest we've had a cha-cha over "should we fight dirty"/"we must"/"we mustnt" etc plenty of times, and we don't need to rehearse it again right now.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 7:38 AM on October 9, 2018 [16 favorites]

In other words, expand the number of justices to twelve, explicitly citing theft of the seat, and then put in place 18 year nonrenewable term limits for all future justices with confirmation becoming automatic in the absence of an explicit "No" vote from the Senate.
posted by leotrotsky at 7:41 AM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

I wonder, did Nikki Haley jump post-Kavanaugh as a matter of "principle" to line herself up for a 2020 run?
Seems a strange time for Trump to kick her to the curb. Other than the fact that he just really hates women.

Maybe she's going to spearhead the right's media offensive to defund, kill-off, or simply kick out of the US, the UN?
posted by Thorzdad at 7:44 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

with confirmation becoming automatic in the absence of an explicit "No" vote from the Senate.

That would have saved Garland, but would also have made confirmation for Gorsuch and Kavanaugh a breeze. Republicans will look to game the rules regardless.
posted by C'est la D.C. at 7:45 AM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

My favorite plan is to cut the size of the court to 7 and kick out the 2 most junior SC associates.
posted by localhuman at 7:49 AM on October 9, 2018 [31 favorites]

In other words, expand the number of justices to twelve, explicitly citing theft of the seat,

I think 12 justices is a good number, but if you want it to happen, citing theft of the seat as the primary motivation isn't going to help get it done.

Only about a quarter of the country is actually mad about the Garland blockade. Another quarter is happy about it. And the other half really just down't think about it at all (These proportions are based on numbers that I just made up for the sake of illustration).

But one thing that almost everyone in the country is mad about is just how horrific the Supreme Court nomination process has become. Increasing the size of the court and adding limits to tenure reduces the stakes of each individual nomination, which means that future hearings don't need to be as painful.

That's how you sell it to the indifferent 50%, anyway.
posted by Uncle Ira at 7:51 AM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

Re: Nikki Haley resigning
Watchdog Group Calls For Probe Of Nikki Haley Flights Funded By Businessmen

This might have something to do with it.
posted by PontifexPrimus at 7:54 AM on October 9, 2018 [23 favorites]

localhuman: My favorite plan is to cut the size of the court to 7 and kick out the 2 most junior SC associates.

I'm not sure that's constitutional? "The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour" - i.e., they can only be impeached, not fired.

In theory, a justice could be impeached and convicted, and the size of the court could be reduced prior to filling the vacancy.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 7:55 AM on October 9, 2018

hope you guys are ready for "Ambassador to the UN Kanye West"
posted by entropicamericana at 7:56 AM on October 9, 2018 [53 favorites]

Nikki Haley accepted some rides on private jets and may have abused her government travel privileges in other ways, according to a tweet from Walter Shaub (ex WH ethics honcho, current CREW leadership staff).

Exiting now before the infractions are investigated in detail probably saves what’s left of her reputation.
posted by notyou at 7:58 AM on October 9, 2018

Given this administration's track record for nominating people who publicly want to destroy what they're being put in charge of (Mulvaney, Pruitt, DeVos, Carson, Perry), I expect the next UN Ambassador to be nihilistic asshole John Bolton.
posted by mcstayinskool at 8:03 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

There's something poetic about downsizing a rabidly pro-corporate personhood bench.
posted by cmfletcher at 8:04 AM on October 9, 2018 [5 favorites]

Haley was only ever there to beef up her resume for her presidential run. That was fully obvious. Two years in the job is enough. IDK if she wants to make a primary run at Trump for 2020, but if she wants to have the option in case it looks viable, now is the time to jump ship.

And she has, of course, been a fully complicit piece of the regime in that job. If she had any integrity at all she'd have never taken it, or resigned early on at best.
posted by scaryblackdeath at 8:04 AM on October 9, 2018 [6 favorites]

Mod note: A few deleted - if people want to dig in on "alternative ways the Supreme Court could be", better to make a separate post focusing on just that.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:05 AM on October 9, 2018 [12 favorites]

Given this administration's track record for nominating people who publicly want to destroy what they're being put in charge of (Mulvaney, Pruitt, DeVos, Carson, Perry), I expect the next UN Ambassador to be nihilistic asshole John Bolton.

He's a perfect Trump nominee except for the fact that he actually has relevant experience for the job.
posted by Uncle Ira at 8:14 AM on October 9, 2018 [6 favorites]

So not everyone is jumping to the conclusion that Trump is about to bomb Iran or some shit and Haley is quitting because she doesn't want to be complicit? Just me? Good. Hopefully that means I'm being paranoid and irrational and there is no chance of that happening.
posted by OnceUponATime at 8:14 AM on October 9, 2018 [7 favorites]

Update re the Guardian article about Sebastian in Gonzales TX from my BetoForTexas.com email from Chris Evans (who rides around Texas with Beto and Cynthia):

"The Guardian just published a lengthy article about Beto and the kind of grassroots campaign that you’re helping us run across Texas -- a no-PAC campaign that is for everyone, everywhere, every single day. At the very end of the article, the journalist talks about meeting a 21-year-old named Sebastian in the small town of Gonzales where he works as a cook in a family business. Asked about Beto and Ted Cruz, Sebastian said he hadn’t heard of either. “To be honest, to me it doesn’t really matter,” he said.

Beto, Cynthia and I were talking about his comment in the van yesterday while driving to Houston and we all agreed that this November is too important for Sebastian and any Texan not to know what we’re fighting for, what’s at stake, and why this election really does matter. But we also agreed that it’s not on Sebastian to reach out to us. It’s on us to reach out to him.

So we looked up the restaurant where he worked, found their phone number, and gave him a call right then and there from the van. With Sebastian on the other line, Beto had the chance to personally introduce himself, take the time to outline the issues we’re hearing about across Texas, and ask Sebastian what’s on his mind. It turns out Sebastian wasn’t yet registered to vote. Beto let him know that he only had one final day to get registered with TODAY being the voter registration deadline in Texas.

But you know Beto, so you probably know that he wasn’t done. He immediately got on the phone with Zack, our field director, and asked if we could get someone from the team out to help Sebastian register. Sure enough, Zack got in contact with one of our amazing field managers, who got in the car and drove 70 miles to Gonzales to personally deliver Sebastian a registration form, and then give him a ride to the post office to mail it."

And then the email has a picture of Sebastian filling out his registration form in his family's cafe, then another of him putting his voter registration in a mail box. Then the email into how ever vote maters in this historic election. We can't take anyone for granted. And it's up to us to get everyone around us registered, and helpful links on how to do that.

Last night in Houston there was Turn Out For Texas rally for Beto with Bun B, Arian Foster, Willie D, The Tontons, Bombon, Shakey Graves, Trae The Truth, Chingo Bling and DJ Windows 98 (Win Butler of Arcade Fire). I don't remember who but someone played Clampdown.

My husband and I were watching the live stream (facebook link) which is complete pleasure wondering when did politics get so fucking cool. Here's a link to the earlier bands which are equally fun to watch, "cumbia with a cause," and the TonTons.

There were over 50 Voter Deputy Registers there. A friend who is one of them said she turned in over 100 new registered voters when she left early.

I didn't go because I've seen and meet Beto more than I can count and worked the Cypress rally that was a few hours earlier, and I was planning to canvass during the Bun B rally. Cypress is a suburb that was crazy red just a few years ago now it's one of the more diverse communities in Houston and changing. There was at least 1000 people there on a Monday at 1:30 PM. And again, a table of VDRs registering people to vote. The Bun B rally has 1000s there.

Today I'm going to try and help at the Texas Southern University rally and maybe the Rice University rally, then canvass tonight. But I also did find ONE FRIEND who is not registered so thats the number one goal: get him registered because today is the last day to do so in Texas. He's on his way over now.

If you watch Beto's live streams they really help you feel better about the world. He's doing a Texas colleges and university tours and it is glorious to hear young folks scream their heads off when he mentions criminal justice reform and healthcare.

Beto talks around 11:50 in the first link and it's pretty inspired. Sheila Jackson Lee introduces him. She loves Beto and she's charming as all get out when she talks about him. Shakey Graves follows Beto, then some classic H-town hip hop with Chamillionaire, then Willie D.

If we don't win which we know is a possibility, we have build some serious grassroots community organizing here. And there's no way our down ballots are not going to be better because of all this. People all over the state connected and working toward change from the ground. And it is not going to stop after 11.7.18.
posted by dog food sugar at 8:17 AM on October 9, 2018 [130 favorites]

In Haley's comments she parised Ivanka and Jared to holy heaven, promised to campaign for Trump in 2020 and called herself "a lucky girl". Link to part of her comments.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:22 AM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

A lot of people thought Taylor Swift was a secret Nazi, including people on the left who wrote thinkpiece after thinkpiece complaining about how she wouldn't denounce white supremacy, and that the only possible explanation for this is that she was a white supremacist herself.
posted by chernoffhoeffding at 8:33 AM on October 9, 2018 [10 favorites]

if we also flip district 7, where a strong Democratic challenger is in an uphill battle with a tea-party incumbent in a Republican-leaning suburban and rural district, and nothing particularly weird has happened, it's probably going to be a bad night for Republican's. So if you're watching the East-Cost returns on election night, keep an eye on VA's 7th.

I chose to write postcards for this race out of all the ones in Virginia because I remembered the Metafilter thread about Dave Brat defeating Eric Cantor in 2014. I had never heard of either guy before and didn't have an opinion in the matter but somehow I was drawn to reading all the hot takes about "lol lol rofl lol sucks to be you Cantor" on the one hand (which, don't get me wrong, I thoroughly enjoyed), and "this is no laughing matter, this is the rise of something truly frightening in American politics" on the other. Four years later I think the latter view is very much vindicated, and it would be SO DELICIOUS if a Democratic woman took him down.

(Other reasons: I wanted to write for a woman, I like an underdog but not too much of one, and I googled the race and saw how dirty the Republicans were fighting, which both made me want to help and signaled to me how scared they are of losing this seat.)
posted by sunset in snow country at 8:34 AM on October 9, 2018 [16 favorites]

1. Fire Sessions
2. Appoint Lindsey Graham as AG
3. Niki Haley takes Graham's Senate seat.
posted by Uncle Ira at 8:34 AM on October 9, 2018 [19 favorites]

John Hudson, WaPo national security and diplomacy on Haley.

Haley had an increasingly diminished role as Pompeo filled the Tillerson vacuum, Bolton asserted himself on UN issues, and the US began withdrawing from key UN institutions/programs, chipping away at her clout
posted by bluesky43 at 8:36 AM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

Governing Magazine moves ratings for state legislatures; 9 move left, 1 moves right.

AK House: Lean D => Tossup

CO House: Lean D => Likely D
IA House: Solid R => Lean R
MN House: Likely R => Lean R
NH Senate: Tossup => Lean D
NH House: Tossup => Lean D
NY Senate: Tossup => Lean D
WA Senate: Lean D => Likely D
WA House: Lean D => Likely D
WI Senate: Lean R => Tossup

Obviously it doesn't get the attention that Congress does, but Dems are poised for major gains in governor and state legislative races this year, and it does matter.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:46 AM on October 9, 2018 [50 favorites]

Today is the last day to register in 15 states. Please double-check that you are correctly registered!

AZ
AR
FL (this may get extended due to the hurricane)
GA
IN
KY
LA
MI
MS
NM
NV
OH
PA
TN
TX
posted by Chrysostom at 8:52 AM on October 9, 2018 [17 favorites]

Nikki Haley resigning

In her announcement today she says that Jared Kushner is "a hidden genius that no one understands."

(Emphasis in the original.)
posted by JackFlash at 8:52 AM on October 9, 2018 [11 favorites]

Thank you, sunset in snow country.
posted by nangar at 8:54 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

Governor and state lege wins allow the Democrats to pass state level anti-gerrymandering laws, as well as same day voter registration, anti-vote suppression, and felon re-enfranchisement laws.

One reason we're in the mess we're in is because the Republicans realized, about 20 years ago, that state level wins were absolutely critical and dumped a lot of money into winning several states, and it paid off bigtime. Gerrymandering to keep state power, gerrymandering to gain Federal power, laws to suppress voter turnout, plus of course passing their repressive agenda at the state level.

One way we can show the voters that Democratic policies work is by implementing them at the state level. California's Net Neutrality bill, for example, is crazy popular and shows just how bad Republican control of the FCC is.

Further, state level contests are where we build the next generation of Federal level candidates.

The Democrats absolutely must focus on state level gains, not to the detriment of Federal gains, but they go hand in hand. We can't win if the states are gerrymandered all to hell.

And, most important, even at the cost of sacrificing short term gain, the Democrats **MUST** dismantle any and all gerrymandering, especially the gerrymandering that benefits themselves. We can't afford to be gerrymandering hypocrites. Get rid of it and we have a chance to win on our merits.
posted by sotonohito at 8:55 AM on October 9, 2018 [42 favorites]

Nikki Haley resigning

In her announcement today she says that Jared Kushner is "a hidden genius that no one understands."

I listened to that and it was bizarre "working toward the Führer" moment. Perhaps she's hoping to avoid her potential legal trouble through president*ial pardon. Until I read about the investigation, I assumed she was planning to run in 2020 after Trump resigns or is thrown out of office, in spite of her assurances that she had no such plans. Now, I'm not so sure.
posted by Mental Wimp at 8:57 AM on October 9, 2018 [5 favorites]

One area I'd like to see more focus on is judicial elections. In a lot of states, these are nominally non-partisan, but surely we can do something to get the word out who the better candidate is?

Most states have similar language in their state constitution to the language the PA SC used to toss out gerrymandering, for example. But if you have a GOP-controlled court, that's not getting too far.
posted by Chrysostom at 8:58 AM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

This Oil Lobbyist Is the Real Power Behind Trump’s Interior Department - Rebecca Leber, Mother Jones

Presenting, Deputy Secretary of the Department of the Interior David Bernhardt:

Bernhardt is the perfect number two to a highly visible number one. Zinke is the folksy charmer; Bernhardt is the strictly-business lawyer. Zinke is the relative outsider, an opportunist, and politician; Interior watchdogs say Bernhardt is the ultimate DC swamp creature. Zinke is relatively new to Interior; Bernhardt, who spent eight years at the department earlier in his career, knows the ins and outs of its labyrinthine bureaucracy. And while Zinke has been mired in scandals and faces at least six active ethics investigations—including inspector general inquiries into possible Hatch Act lobbying violations and a Halliburton land deal in his hometown of Whitefish, Montana—Bernhardt has been largely invisible.

Much like Andrew Wheeler, the technocrat who succeed Scott Pruitt after his rocky stint atop the EPA, Bernhardt could seamlessly take command should Zinke succumb to ethics challenges or, as some speculate, exit to run to be Montana’s governor in 2020.

Bernhardt’s understanding of the department’s workings and the allies he’s installed in key political posts enable him to steer its complex network of decentralized offices while leaving few fingerprints. His calendars often have little detail in them; the environmental group Western Values Project has noted how few of his emails turn up in their frequent Freedom of Information Act requests to the Interior. “Kind of amazing that he can do anything without leaving a paper trail behind him,” said Aaron Weiss, media director of Center for Western Priorities, another conservation group.

“Bernhardt knows where all the skeletons are and the strings to pull,” Obama-era career Interior official Joel Clement told me. Unlike Zinke, whose well-cultivated cowboy persona is “all hat, no cattle,” Clement says, “the real work is being done by Bernhardt.”

Emphasis mine.
posted by ZeusHumms at 9:00 AM on October 9, 2018 [7 favorites]

called herself "a lucky girl"

The internalized misogyny, it hurts.

This type of broadcasting is exactly how children of both genders learn that when they grow up, only half of them will be adults who are employed and recognized for their skills.

So, so frustrating to be a woman today.
posted by Dashy at 9:01 AM on October 9, 2018 [53 favorites]

nangar: "Being familiar with the state and living in one of the toss-up districts there, I think we could win three districts even in a modest Dem wave. "

Right. The generic ballot has a pretty strong correlation with outcomes as a whole. But if you get down to specific districts, candidate quality starts mattering a lot more.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:01 AM on October 9, 2018

Kanye West is coming to the White House tomorrow. He and Jared can get together and talk genius with each other.
posted by JackFlash at 9:02 AM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

A lot of people thought Taylor Swift was a secret Nazi

A lot of people think Trump is a good president and a lot of people, disturbingly, have told me over four sets of texting for Beto over the last two days that Kavanaugh is the best choice for SC.

A quick google search did not prove to me that their was a significant amount of people beyond the traditional crackpots that believe Taylor Swift is a secret Nazi. I would argue it is a de-rail and I would also argue she took a risk she did not need to in order to get more people to vote Dem. I say that as someone who is not a big fan of Bergeron.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 9:02 AM on October 9, 2018 [7 favorites]

East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94: "I'm not sure that's constitutional? "The Judges, both of the supreme and inferior Courts, shall hold their Offices during good Behaviour" - i.e., they can only be impeached, not fired."

Past size reductions of the SC have been accomplished through not filling vacancies.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:05 AM on October 9, 2018

A quick google search did not prove to me that their was a significant amount of people beyond the traditional crackpots that believe Taylor Swift is a secret Nazi.

I think that the argument more was, that since her being an aryan princess who was on their side was a major meme among 4chin WP people, that her not doing anything to deny it or even pick a side was because she did not want to lose the right wing demographic among her fan base, and that she was cowardly for that. The only people who I ever saw acting as if she was literally a WP Nazi in the wild were the 4chin memers.
posted by bootlegpop at 9:06 AM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

@joshtpm, 8:35 AM - 9 Oct 2018

CNN: Trump reportedly caught off guard by Haley's resignation, despite claim she flagged it six months ago.

posted by kirkaracha at 9:08 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

CNN: Trump reportedly caught off guard by Haley's resignation, despite claim she flagged it six months ago.

These could both be true actually.
posted by mazola at 9:09 AM on October 9, 2018 [44 favorites]

a non mouse, a cow herd: "I say that as someone who is not a big fan of Bergeron."

Yeah, Vonnegut is so overrated.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:10 AM on October 9, 2018 [6 favorites]

Government Drops Deportation Case Against Pizza Deliveryman Pablo Villavicencio.

53 days in detention.
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:13 AM on October 9, 2018 [37 favorites]

On this episode of Jared Kushner, Hidden Genius: *Jared walking around in circles, unable to escape from revolving door*
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 9:20 AM on October 9, 2018 [14 favorites]

I think that the argument more was, that since her being an aryan princess who was on their side was a major meme among 4chin WP people, that her not doing anything to deny it or even pick a side was because she did not want to lose the right wing demographic among her fan base, and that she was cowardly for that. The only people who I ever saw acting as if she was literally a WP Nazi in the wild were the 4chin memers.

I am really uncomfortable about how that is phrased. It sounds to me that, simply, because a woman has blond hair and blue eyes, she... needs to always come out and say, "NOT A NAZI!"?

I don't care how famous, infamous, non-famous you are. In America, you have the freedom speech, and that includes the ability to not speak.

I do not know exactly what you are speaking of, but I would not be surprised if Taylor was unaware of 4chan memes. I also wouldn't be surprised if that was not the hill she wanted to die on or even comment about.

Women and men both do not need to always get in the fray. People have valid reasons for keeping their mouth shuts and we damn sure shouldn't say they are nazi/aryan/whatever.

/rant

@Chrystosom - I meant Phil Bredesen. I am sure you knew that. Good catch, and thanks for the gentle ribbing. I am sure one day, I will catch you with an errant typo or misplaced comma. :-D
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 9:22 AM on October 9, 2018 [12 favorites]

SCOTUS effectively upholds ruling that struck down Obama-era HFC greenhouse gas regulation.
posted by a snickering nuthatch at 9:25 AM on October 9, 2018 [8 favorites]

Mod note: Let's maybe shelve the Taylor Swift thing. We've been a few times around it here and *many* times around it in previous threads -- what does she know about the nazis, what are her responsibilities, how her personal branding plays into and benefits from bad tropes, yet she's also done good, but partly bad, but partly good, etc.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 9:29 AM on October 9, 2018 [10 favorites]

By the way, last night during the Better Call Saul season finale, there was a pro-DC statehood PSA in a prime commercial spot. The PSA stars one of the show's stars, Jonathan Banks, who is originally from DC. He's been stumping for DC statehood for at least a couple years now, but it was interesting to see it broadcast last night given the current situation and given that it couldn't have been cheap to purchase airtime during the finale. I'm in the DC area, so I don't know if this is a PSA that is airing nationwide or just in the DC-area market.
posted by rue72 at 9:35 AM on October 9, 2018 [13 favorites]

more focus on is judicial elections

yes. have been wondering about how to evaluate candidates for judge in state and local races.
posted by 20 year lurk at 9:38 AM on October 9, 2018

That PSA was...undercut somewhat by referring to Paul Strauss as a "senator" rather than "shadow senator." I would prefer that those watching the commercial weren't led to believe that we actually get representation in the senate.
posted by mosst at 9:39 AM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

League of Women Voters! Their voters' guide often has rundowns of the candidates' beliefs and messaging in even the smallest elections. I love them.
posted by sciatrix at 9:40 AM on October 9, 2018 [19 favorites]

1. Fire Sessions
2. Appoint Lindsey Graham as AG
3. Nikki Haley takes Graham's Senate seat

South Carolina does gubernatorial appointments for Senate vacancies so I think this is 100% spot on.
posted by dis_integration at 9:47 AM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

Trump: "The paid D.C. protesters are now ready to REALLY protest because they haven’t gotten their checks - in other words, they weren’t paid! Screamers in Congress, and outside, were far too obvious - less professional than anticipated by those paying (or not paying) the bills!"

As usual, Trump's Mirror prevails -- Trump accusing protestors of being paid actors by Soros.

Remember, long ago, that fateful day Trump descended the escalator in the Trump Tower to announce his candidacy? Through a Federal Elections Commission complaint and investigation it was revealed that Trump had hired a big crowd of applauding "supporters" from a New York casting agency. And further, Trump failed to pay the casting agency the $12,000 he owed for six months, which constituted an illegal campaign loan.

Mueller can just mine Trump's tweets by looking at every accusation Trump makes as a confession of something Trump has done.
posted by JackFlash at 9:52 AM on October 9, 2018 [47 favorites]

Where is one of these paid protestor employment agencies? Asking for a friend.
posted by jenfullmoon at 9:55 AM on October 9, 2018 [11 favorites]

League of Women Voters!

taking this as responsive to evaluation of judge candidates, i dug around a little. the "personalized ballot" and candidate information seems to be available at the website of League of Women Voters project, Vote411, where i did, indeed, find a list of judicial candidates in my region including their statements of experience, and capsules on issues facing the court. in my jurisdiction only the experience statements differ; the two issues capsules contain the same, evidently canned, text for each candidate.
posted by 20 year lurk at 10:03 AM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

Maybe Dumbing it Down is Good Politics - Martin Longman, Washington Monthly

Longman notes that Trump communicates at a 4th or 5th grade level, according to standardized measures like the Flesch-Kincaid scale.

Many people might not realize that Trump is resonating with them in large part because he doesn’t use any hifalutin language that makes them feel inadequate in some way, but at least some of them are aware of this and don’t mind mentioning it as one of things about Trump that they find appealing.

Strangely, it makes them want to have a beer with him even though he doesn’t drink beer and claims to have never touched a drop of alcohol in his life. It makes them think that he understands and cares about their problems even though Trump was a millionaire by the time he was eight years old and has shown no sincere signs of caring about anyone but himself in his entire life.

It might be exasperating for college graduates, but Trump’s mangling of the English language and his fifth grade way of expressing himself has helped him form a strong bond with a lot of people who actually want a president that doesn’t challenge them intellectually.

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:22 AM on October 9, 2018 [27 favorites]

Moscow Times, Infamous St. Petersburg 'Troll Factory' Set on Fire

The Fontanka.ru news website cited police as saying that an unknown suspect broke the agency’s ground-floor window and threw a Molotov cocktail inside at around 3 a.m. on Tuesday.

Um, ok then.
posted by zachlipton at 10:29 AM on October 9, 2018 [42 favorites]

From the above linked Slate interview with Nate Silver (Isaac Chotiner):

How worried are you, especially in some swing states, that the polling error had to do with underrepresentation in the polls of voters at lower education levels? And how worried are you that that’s going to repeat itself, because American politics is increasingly polarized along lines of education—especially with white voters of higher and lower education levels—increasingly going in different directions?

I’m worried about that. And I’m equally worried about pollsters overcompensating and/or potentially missing sources of error that would lead them to underestimate how Democrats would do. One of the more robust findings in our years of doing this is that polling error is not directionally very predictable. Meaning, will the overall forecast be off? Yeah, it very easily could be. It will be off to some degree. It’s just a matter of how far it will be off. But it’s equally likely to be off in either direction.

For example, in California, Hillary Clinton beat her polls by 7 points, which is more than she underperformed her polls in Wisconsin by, which was I think 5 points. The importance of that is that there are seven or eight or nine competitive House races in California. Democrats’ polling has been tepid there. If that’s a polling error, that could be an example of where Democrats actually pick up a few more seats in the House than projected by the polls.

posted by ZeusHumms at 10:30 AM on October 9, 2018 [8 favorites]

The Fontanka.ru news website cited police as saying that an unknown suspect broke the agency’s ground-floor window and threw a Molotov cocktail inside at around 3 a.m. on Tuesday.

live by the flame war, die by the flame war
posted by prize bull octorok at 10:32 AM on October 9, 2018 [25 favorites]

Checkpoint Nation (cw: sexual assault) - "Immigration Authorities are extending their reach deep into the nation's interior, putting civil liberties in jeopardy for millions of people"
posted by the man of twists and turns at 10:39 AM on October 9, 2018 [11 favorites]

Trump-emblazoned packages at the Uralesbest asbestos factory in Russia
posted by growabrain at 10:45 AM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

dis_integration: "1. Fire Sessions
2. Appoint Lindsey Graham as AG
3. Nikki Haley takes Graham's Senate seat

South Carolina does gubernatorial appointments for Senate vacancies so I think this is 100% spot on."

@baseballot:

Graham said yesterday, "I have zero interest in serving in President Trump's cabinet," and promised to run again in 2020. #SCsen

Understood that Graham is a lying sack of crap, but I tend to believe him. Being Senator is a good gig, and now that he's nailed down the base by going full crazy, it's basically for life. Trump Cabinet jobs tend to be somewhat shorter lived.
posted by Chrysostom at 10:50 AM on October 9, 2018 [7 favorites]

> Graham said yesterday, "I have zero interest in serving in President Trump's cabinet," and promised to run again in 2020. #SCsen

So what about Tim Scott? Might he be ready to go full-Trumpist? (A black attorney general - we'd never hear the end of it!)
posted by RedOrGreen at 10:53 AM on October 9, 2018

Justinian: "CNN could help us see a trend or lack thereof if they would release the generic ballot they undoubtedly conducted along with the rest of their poll! You can't tell me they didn't!"

D+13 (54/41)
posted by Chrysostom at 10:54 AM on October 9, 2018 [15 favorites]

Mod note: A couple deleted; psst there is a thread about the #himtoo meme
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 11:02 AM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

TRAC report #530:

Who Is ICE Detaining?

The vast majority (58%) of individuals in ICE custody June 30 had no criminal record. An even larger proportion—four out of five—either had no record, or had only committed a minor offense such as a traffic violation.

This left just one out of five who had been convicted of what ICE classified as a felony. Of these only 16 percent were what ICE defines as a serious, or Level 1, offense. Even among Level 1 offenses ICE included crimes such as "selling marijuana" which many states have now legalized.

AP, Deported parents may lose kids to adoption

Federal officials insist they are reuniting families and will continue to do so. But an Associated Press investigation drawing on hundreds of court documents, immigration records and interviews in the U.S. and Central America identified holes in the system that allow state court judges to grant custody of migrant children to American families — without notifying their parents.

And today, with hundreds of those mothers and fathers deported thousands of miles away, the risk has grown exponentially.
...
John Sandweg, who headed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement under the Obama administration, said he worries that many more migrant children recently taken from their families may never see them again.

“We have the kids in the U.S. and the parents down in Central America, and now they’ll bring all these child welfare agencies into play,” Sandweg said. “It’s just a recipe for disaster.”

posted by zachlipton at 11:29 AM on October 9, 2018 [32 favorites]

As the deportees were led off the plane onto the steamy San Salvador tarmac, an anguished Araceli Ramos Bonilla burst into tears, her face contorted with pain: “They want to steal my daughter!”

It had been 10 weeks since Ramos had last held her 2-year-old, Alexa. Ten weeks since she was arrested crossing the border into Texas and U.S. immigration authorities seized her daughter and told her she would never see the girl again.

A nation that permanently enshrines human trafficking does not deserve to exist.
posted by Rust Moranis at 11:43 AM on October 9, 2018 [48 favorites]

Being Senator is a good gig, and now that he's nailed down the base by going full crazy, it's basically for life.

I am also skeptical that Graham would give up a Senate seat to take the AG. But who knows? Weirder shit happens every day now. Merely as an observation, tho, I think it's a misread of South Carolina politics to believe that Graham's seat has ever been vulnerable. He's served 16 years and I can't recall him facing any real challenge in any primary or general race. Contrary to some conventional wisdom, I think, Graham wasn't being a shithead to shore up his base; he was being a shithead because he's a shithead.
posted by octobersurprise at 11:53 AM on October 9, 2018 [16 favorites]

“We have the kids in the U.S. and the parents down in Central America, and now they’ll bring all these child welfare agencies into play,” Sandweg said. “It’s just a recipe for disaster.”

My local foster parent discussion board had a whole dumpster fire of a conversation about, "Would you take placement of kids separated by ICE?" Because on the one hand, displaced/separated kids need a home, but on the other hand, why should I have to enable this garbage? And then the kids get stuck in the middle, as they always do.

This isn't a recipe for disaster, it'd be white-glove delivery and free installation of disaster complete with no-charge recycling of that peace and calm they're replacing.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 11:56 AM on October 9, 2018 [15 favorites]

D+13 (54/41)

Thanks This will buy me at least two days of less panic. No no panic, but less panic.

Nate Silver on this: "One reason not to really trust the conventional wisdom about how Kavanaugh's confirmation will out play politically is because the conventional wisdom is overwhelmingly formulated by dudes."
posted by Justinian at 12:09 PM on October 9, 2018 [57 favorites]

Because on the one hand, displaced/separated kids need a home, but on the other hand, why should I have to enable this garbage? And then the kids get stuck in the middle, as they always do.

Assuming I had the time and space to take care of a child, I'd take them, then do my god damn best to get back in touch with their parents, and then discuss putting the kid on a citizenship track and getting the kid's parents back here or enabling that child to rejoin their parents outside the country, PLUS I'd throw up a website and go on some talk shows/podcasts to raise the cause with other parents in the same situation, and try to build a nationwide network of parents to heal some of the damage caused by ICE and end the policy for good. Doesn't seem like enabling it, it seems like it's an opportunity to step up and do the right thing.
posted by saysthis at 12:17 PM on October 9, 2018 [12 favorites]

The vast majority (58%) of individuals in ICE custody June 30 had no criminal record. An even larger proportion—four out of five—either had no record, or had only committed a minor offense such as a traffic violation.

This is absolutely what I have seen doing immigration court observation. People are being brought in from traffic stops, often for DUI. And the more observations I do, the more I think that a lot of those are Driving While Brown stops, and some of them (I truly believe, based on various things I've noticed) are entirely phony.
posted by Frowner at 12:22 PM on October 9, 2018 [24 favorites]

Digging down into the Great Slate:

tarshish bound, scalefree, panic, and anastasiav all mentioned the Great Slate in this thread - a campaign to fund 13 candidates looking to flip Republican House seats. 11 of them are women.

Each of them is a first-time progressive candidate with no ties to the political establishment, an excellent campaign team, and a clear path to victory in a poor, rural district that is being ignored by the national Democratic Party. None of the candidates takes money from corporations.

As anastasiav says, the full post about the Great Slate and what it's trying to achieve is worth a read.

I took a look at the issues pages for these candidates (their websites are helpfully linked from the donation page, where you can donate to all 13 or customize how much you want to give to which candidates):

health care: 7 of them support Medicare for All or Universal Single-Payer; the others all talk about strengthening and expanding health care, and at least 2 of these talk about supporting CHiP (remember CHIP?).

gun control: 8 support gun control - these rural citizens discuss growing up learning to hunt and understanding how citizens of these districts feel about gun ownership, support the right to own guns, but also unequivocally state their support for limits, including background checks and waiting periods.

abortion: 9 state that they support a woman's right to choose ... although some are more explicit about it than others. J.D. Scholten says,

As a Catholic, I have my own personal views on abortion. However, just as Prohibition failed to cure alcoholism by banning liquor, I believe a blanket ban on abortion that criminalizes women’s healthcare decisions and throws doctors into jail does not solve the problem of too many unplanned pregnancies. While the highly personal decision to terminate a pregnancy should be left to women in consultation with their doctor and spiritual advisors, we know what can actually work to reduce abortions and I believe much common ground exists on this divisive issue. In Congress, I plan on fighting for solutions that include: ensuring women have access to contraception and health care, teaching age-appropriate sex education in schools, and insisting on paid family leave, expanding adoption and foster care and better child care policies to make it easier for new parents to care for newborns. The United States also has some of the highest infant mortality rates in the developed world and only in the U.S. are more American women dying of pregnancy-related complications. We should also focus on the lives of these vulnerable women and babies.

environment: 12 support better environmental policies, with some urging rejoining the Paris Accord, others talking about clean water, and several talking about clean energy - pushing for solutions that are both better for the environment and opportunities for good jobs in rural communities.

Diane Mitsch Bush, CO-3 (Western Colorado), wants to make federal law respect states like Colorado where cannabis is legal.

Jared Golden, ME-2 (inland Maine), wants to end Citizens United.

Jess King, PA-11 (Lancaster), wants Congress to provide real disaster relief to Puerto Rico.

Karen McCormick, CO-4 (Eastern Colorado), supports student debt relief.

JD Scholten, IA-4 (Northwest Iowa), wants you to know he supports the ADA, LGBT rights, and automatic voter registration.

Jessica Morse, CA-4 (Tahoe and High Sierra), wants to restore American partnership in NATO and the United Nations and rebuild American diplomacy.

Tracy Mitrano, NY-23 (Western New York), wants to restore the Voting Rights Act, pass the ERA, and amend the Civil Rights Act Title 7 to include the LGBTQ community.

Dana Balter, NY-24 (Syracuse), supports criminal justice reform, including eliminating cash bail; supports public schools over charter schools; and supports increasing taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

Theresa Gasper, OH-10 (Dayton), wants to reverse Citizens United.

Alyse Galvin, AK-00 (Alaska), supports Net Neutrality.

Kyle Horton, NC-07 (Wilmington), opposes tax cuts for the super-rich and corporations.

Shireen Ghorbani, UT-2 (Southern Utah), wants to end the bail bond system, demilitarize police, provide a path to citizenship for immigrants, reform criminal justice, and fight discrimination against LGBT* persons.

Susan Moran Palmer, OH-16 (Cleveland suburbs), wants to fight government corruption.

Think there are no progressive Democrats in rural areas, or in red states like Alaska, North Carolina, and Utah? Think again.

And then think about the challenges facing these progressives, and then, if you can, give them some support.
posted by kristi at 12:26 PM on October 9, 2018 [73 favorites]

One area I'd like to see more focus on is judicial elections

California voters: I’m voting not to retain Carol Corrigan on the California Supreme Court. Everyone from the LA Times editorial board to my local Green Party voter guide (!) is all “eh, just retain all the judges.” But Corrigan was a dissenting vote in the 2008 same-sex marriage case In re Marriage Cases (i.e., voting to deny same-sex couples civil rights), so fuck that noise.
posted by donatella at 12:31 PM on October 9, 2018 [25 favorites]

That isn't the worst scheme in the world, saysthis, but it's also fraught with a few downsides. The biggest one is just an ethical one, relating to dragging these kids into the spotlight when they're really not able to give informed consent. On a practical standpoint you may be prohibited from doing that either by law or by a well-meaning or (highly unlikely but not impossible) awful mean-spirited social worker.

Here in Virginia between when we adopted the first and second time they added a rule flat-out prohibiting us from putting our baby's picture on social media of any sort. As an across the board rule this is well meaning - kids in the foster system have a presumption that the goal is to reunite families so sharing the pictures of someone else's child is problematic in several ways even if it's not a contentious situation. For adoption placements where parental rights likely have already been legally severed it seemed... a bit over-wrought and without a concrete goal, I'd argue. But regardless of the meaning, this is the text of the guidance and there's no room in there for activism.
posted by phearlez at 12:43 PM on October 9, 2018 [6 favorites]

Let me recap to make clear the heinousness of what is going on in the story given by the AP link from zachlipton:

A woman is severely abused by her partner.

She separates from him. In the course of contentious custody hearings, he files false police reports, alleging among other things, that she encouraged a 17 year old to have sex with an adult. However, the charges are dropped, in part because one of the witnesses against him is THE MAN'S OWN MOTHER WHO TELLS POLICE THAT HE MADE THEM UP.

To escape, the woman ends up paying a human trafficker to transport her to the US. It is a long, arduous journey. At the border, a US agent sees the false, dropped charges, and asserts she is a criminal. Her child is pulled from her arms. She is told that she will never see her child again.

Eventually, her child is farmed out to Bethany Christian Services, where staffers were, to quote the article, "excited," because if "these kids could know Jesus, everything would be OK."

Despite signing documentation saying that they would not seek custody, the foster parents decide to seek custody anyways, because they believe the child has been abused.

A clueless fucking state judge gives them temporary guardianship, and the parents want permanent guardianship, asserting in their application that Alexa’s mother, they wrote, “has not owned her crimes, not been rehabilitated.”

Their permanent guardianship is granted without notice to either the lawyers of the mother, or even the lawyers for the child. The false charges filed against the mother are part of the judge's basis for granting permanent guardianship.

It takes an international campaign on Facebook and direct intervention from not just the consulate of El Salvador, but also Department of Justice for the mother and child to be reunited after fifteen months in spite of the foster family putting up barrier after barrier.

There is nothing in the article suggesting that the foster family has now apologized for what it did, or even feels any shame. Instead, there is bullshit about how "no one wins" and their relationship with the mother and child being part of "God's plan."

My physical body has been replaced by a tower of flame and rage.
posted by joyceanmachine at 12:46 PM on October 9, 2018 [123 favorites]

Neo-Nazi who attacked Amtrak train revealed as Unite the Right participant

Pack of lone wolves.
posted by Artw at 12:50 PM on October 9, 2018 [45 favorites]

Washington Post: It’s that time again when the president of the United States tweets apparent nonsense into the world and we all parse it for meaning like a haruspex going through a wad of sheep entrails.

... As best we can discern, he’s saying the imaginary benefactors of imaginary paid protesters have skipped out on their imaginary obligations and left the imaginary paid protesters with imaginary unpaid wages. It’s a weirdly specific scenario to conjure out of thin air. We can’t even find any fake news articles to support it.

2018: making haruspicy great again.
posted by RedOrGreen at 12:56 PM on October 9, 2018 [33 favorites]

It's almost as if marching and agitating against the humanity of other people is a predictor for violent behavior and a lack of respect for others' right to exist.
posted by phearlez at 12:57 PM on October 9, 2018 [9 favorites]

@chrisgeidner: Breaking: #SCOTUS allows North Dakota voter ID requirement, which had been enjoined during the primaries, to be enforced during the general election.

New requirements a month before election day. What could go wrong?

(Justice Kavanaugh took no part in this decision, before you go there.)

Everyone's still waiting for a ruling in the the Texas Obamacare case from Judge O’Connor, and some people speculated a decision might be more forthcoming after Kavanaugh's confirmation. The case has resulted in a number of Republican candidates who are literally plaintiffs fighting to overturn the ACA going around campaigning on how they're determined to protect coverage for pre-existing conditions, because nothing matters anymore and we can all just make up whatever reality we want.
posted by zachlipton at 1:16 PM on October 9, 2018 [15 favorites]

So there are reports that Ted Cruz has backed out of a scheduled debate with Beto O'Rourke, leaving O'Rourke with a solo town hall on CNN. Which sounds insane as a campaign decision. Is there any other information out there about this?
posted by dilettante at 1:31 PM on October 9, 2018 [31 favorites]

Ted Cruz declines, so challenger Beto O’Rourke gets an hour on national TV by himself
posted by Artw at 1:41 PM on October 9, 2018 [50 favorites]

The good news is a full hour of Beto! The bad news is that it probably indicates that Cruz' people like what they're seeing in the polling this week.
posted by Justinian at 1:42 PM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

UNC Professor Nominating Blasey Ford for Distinguished Alumna Award
posted by young_simba at 1:46 PM on October 9, 2018 [30 favorites]

That choice plus the mailers (again with those mailers), makes it seem like Cruz has opposition moles on staff.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:46 PM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

@DylanByers: I’m having lunch with Michael Avenatti @MichaelAvenatti at the Vanity Fair Summit and he’s proposing a three-round mixed-martial arts fight with Donald Trump Jr. @DonaldJTrumpJr for charity. No joke.

@JoseCanseco: Hey little buddy @realDonaldTrump I am interested in United Nations leadership .dm me for ideas and confidential 90 day plan #readynow

Just end it. End all of it.
posted by zachlipton at 1:56 PM on October 9, 2018 [23 favorites]

Does it necessarily mean they like the polling? For a candidate who is battling the perception that he's got one hell of a glass jaw and a yellow streak running down his spine besides, suddenly backing out of a debate without any reason is a very odd move. This is particularly true in light of the cheerful narrative of Ted running scared of debating with Beto that has been resonating over the past several weeks, not to mention Beto out-earning Ted without the benefit of super-PAC donations and the PACs that are happily running opposition ads without Beto's collusion or, honestly, consent.

The thing about debates is that they are not an unquestioned gain for candidates. If Cruz thinks that Beto can make him look weak and incompetent on national television and that the debate will be widely viewed and televised, he does have an incentive to hide from the cameras. This is why Republicans have been hiding from town halls all year--angry constituents make for one hell of of an unfortunate sound bite. Combine that with Cruz' greatest advantage over Beto in this race, which is his name recognition. The timing and location of the debates has consistently indicated that the Cruz camp wants to take any possible plausibly deniable attempt to avoid them, from the initial attempt to dictate the time of the broadcasts to only Friday nights to the wrangling over whether there would even be debates at all. In the case of this specific debate, Cruz attempted to reschedule it at a very late moment as a result of the Kavanaugh mess, and O'Rourke turned him down in favor of a planned Facebook Live event.

That gives Cruz a reason to back out: he can spin it as "oh, Beto just doesn't care" instead of he himself being afraid to show up and argue. It's possible he hoped that the outcome would be no broadcast or no one tuning in because there's only one side present. It's also possible he hopes that the outcry over Kavanaugh will distract voters from recalling when the debate is happening in time and prevent people from tuning in.
posted by sciatrix at 1:59 PM on October 9, 2018 [10 favorites]

Trump says Ivanka would be "dynamite" as U.N. ambassador, but fears "nepotism" accusations
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 2:02 PM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

kristi: "Think there are no progressive Democrats in rural areas, or in red states like Alaska, North Carolina, and Utah? Think again.

And then think about the challenges facing these progressives, and then, if you can, give them some support."

Just as info, district 2016 prez results and Cook district rating (some of these are more in reach than others):

CO-03 - Diane Mitsch Bush: Trump 52-40, Likely R
ME-02 - Jared Golden: Trump 51-41, Tossup
PA-11 - Jess King: Trump 61-35, Solid R
CO-04 - Karen McCormick: Trump 57-34, Solid R
IA-04 - JD Scholten: Trump 61-34, Likely R
CA-04 - Jessica Morse: Trump 54-39, Likely R
NY-23 - Tracy Mitrano: Trump 55-40, Solid R
NY-24 - Dana Balter: Clinton 49-45, Lean R
OH-10 - Theresa Gasper: Trump 51-44, Likely R
AK-AL - Alyse Galvin: Trump 53-38, Likely R
NC-07 - Kyle Horton: Trump 58-40, Solid R
UT-02 - Shireen Ghorbani: Trump 46-32, Solid R
OH-16 - Susan Moran Palmer: Trump 56-40, Solid R

This may or may not affect who you give to (credible campaigns help build for the next campaign, even in hard districts!).
posted by Chrysostom at 2:09 PM on October 9, 2018 [8 favorites]

Even Ted knows his best shot is to hide and make sure the base sees the letter R next to his name.
posted by cmfletcher at 2:09 PM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

@jimsciutto: At WH, President Trump expresses suspicion about UN climate report: “It was given to me. And I want to look at who drew it. You know, which group drew it. I can give you reports that are fabulous and I can give you reports that aren't so good.”

I'm honestly surprised anyone would give him a copy, but I'm concerned he thinks it was "drawn," which makes me worry that someone gave him a picture instead of the report.
posted by zachlipton at 2:10 PM on October 9, 2018 [32 favorites]

Re Cruz v. Beto, As a technical debates go, Cruz is very, very good. Like, winning competition debates. But, whereas that's a valuable skill in debate club, cruz, because he is a thousand cockroaches in a badly fitting human suit, has no ability to read the room, and respond quickly to a charm offensive.

Beto, whom I love, is not at all prepared to meet Cruz on a technical debate, but he wins popular appeal hands down.

Cruz is not telegenic. The camera lurves Beto. Lurves him like a teenager. Cruz, sitting up there, being all non human, for an hour, next to the prettiest man in politics? I am not surprised Ted ran for cover, rather than facing the lights. I mean, when was the last time you saw roaches run towards the light?
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 2:11 PM on October 9, 2018 [37 favorites]

You can't argue with Michael Avenatti's resume for POTUS: lawyer, race car driver, martial artist, attention hound.
posted by notyou at 2:13 PM on October 9, 2018 [5 favorites]

Justinian: "Nate Silver on this: "One reason not to really trust the conventional wisdom about how Kavanaugh's confirmation will out play politically is because the conventional wisdom is overwhelmingly formulated by dudes.""

This is depressingly accurate. Both the broader political commentariat and the election sub-division remain strongly white male.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:16 PM on October 9, 2018 [13 favorites]

fears "nepotism" accusations

Since when does he fear ANYTHING, especially accusations of nepotism?
Is this why Haley quit, because she knew Ivanka was replacing her?
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:18 PM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

Cruz is in a similar situation to Clay T. Williams. He's just such an unlikable person that his best shot at winning is to stay out of sight as much as possible and to say as little as possible.

I'm personally baffled as to why he agreed to any debates with Beto. I'm glad he did, but it really was a bad decision on his part. He'd have been much better off taking the position that there was no need for a debate. I dunno if his ego got in the way, or if he decided that not debating would make him look cowardly, or what. But it was a really bad decision for him.

I mean, no matter what, Cruz has the advantage and Beto winning is the least likely outcome. But agreeing to debate at all made Beto winning more likely.

But I think he's compounding the problem by backing out. Now he looks like a coward, and that's especially bad for him with some non-official pro-Beto groups pushing the idea that Ted Cruz is a coward with some pretty good ads.

He's still likely to win, but he's giving Beto a much better chance than he'd have had otherwise. I think part of the problem is that Cruz really has very little experience campaigning in an even semi-competitive race. He primaried from the right for the Senate seat in 2012, and that was his only experience running a campaign. And running a vicious far right primary is a different deal than competing with a Democrat in the general election.

His campaign for President in 2016 was basically a recap of his 2012 primary campaign: he rushed hard to the right. Problem was that in 2016 he got stymied by Trump's totally crazy right wing lunatic act.

Point is, Cruz is not very good at running a campaign. While Beto has run several since 2005. He's used to campaigning and knows more about doing it.
posted by sotonohito at 2:19 PM on October 9, 2018 [13 favorites]

Re Cruz v. Beto, As a technical debates go, Cruz is very, very good. Like, winning competition debates.

Right, and if there's one thing the average American finds really persuasive, it's a Gish Gallop executed flawlessly within the bounds of an Oxford-style academic debate.
posted by Kitty Stardust at 2:21 PM on October 9, 2018 [11 favorites]

Like, winning competition debates.

He's actually pretty legendary. He's one of the best college debaters in living memory. And that is really, really not going to translate into winning a debate that is being scored by voters and pundits, rather than debate judges. He's going to come across like such an asshole. Really, I cannot convey what an asshole a champion college debater is going to come off as.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:24 PM on October 9, 2018 [51 favorites]

I'm personally baffled as to why he agreed to any debates with Beto. I'm glad he did, but it really was a bad decision on his part. He'd have been much better off taking the position that there was no need for a debate.

Beto kept very politely asking him to do a series of debates so that all the Texans could see the candidates compete on the issues, and also maybe can we have some in Spanish so everyone can follow along? You know there are a lot of Texans who are more comfortable with Spanish, Ted--you better than anyone, surely? man named Cruz?--and we ought to be talking to all Texans, not just a few people.

And you know, says Beto, I just can't think why on earth Mr. Cruz doesn't want everyone in Texas to hear what he has to say. I mean, I care enough about Texans to make sure I go around and visit every county I can find, and that seems like it should be the bare minimum, doesn't it? I don't know what Mr. Cruz is doing that keeps him from talking about the issues to Texan voters--I'm sure he's very busy? but well, I'll talk publicly about what I think every time, and I'll keep making sure he knows that I'm totally happy to debate him at times when Texans can tune in and listen...

Put it like this: Cruz is between a rock and a hard place on the topic of debates, and any politician worth a damn should know how to spin that shit and Beto absolutely does. What's the matter, Ted? You scared of the big bad Democrat?
posted by sciatrix at 2:25 PM on October 9, 2018 [16 favorites]

He's going to come across like such an asshole. Really, I cannot convey what an asshole a champion college debater is going to come off as.

There already was one debate, how did he come off? What was the media take on the debate? What little I had seen online seemed to say Beto underwhelmed, but I'd like to hear from someone who saw it.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:27 PM on October 9, 2018 [1 favorite]

Seconded. I didn't catch it, but I'm curious to hear from folks who did.
posted by sciatrix at 2:29 PM on October 9, 2018

Technically, Cruz won. Beto scored more popular points.
posted by SecretAgentSockpuppet at 2:29 PM on October 9, 2018

The TL;DW on the first debate between Beto and Cruz is that Cruz won in the debate sense, but looked like a jerk while Beto looked better. About what you'd expect. Neither side committed any major gaffes, and more than anything else that's what Americans look for in a political debate.
posted by sotonohito at 2:30 PM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

HuffPost, EPA Chief Andrew Wheeler Engaged With Racist, Conspiratorial Posts On Social Media

Andrew Wheeler, the acting administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, repeatedly engaged with inflammatory content on his personal Facebook and Twitter accounts over the past five years, including some in the past month. The previously-unreported interactions include liking a racist image of former President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama on Facebook and retweeting an infamous “Pizzagate” conspiracy theorist.
...
In January 2013, Wheeler liked a photograph of the Obamas sitting at a sports game, depicted looking at a white person’s hand holding a banana. The image was posted by a page called Mia mamma è vergine, Italian for “My mom is a virgin,” which posts memes and videos.

Miami New Times, ICE Agents Arrested Miami Dad After They Found His Lost Wallet, Family Says

Flavio Musmanno lost his wallet August 28. He has lived in North Miami Beach on an expired visa since emigrating from Argentina in 2000, but he'd since married an American citizen and is in the process of applying for permanent residency.

Musmanno had been away from his family and working construction jobs in Ohio when his wallet went missing over the summer. When he dropped the billfold, it contained little more than a few credit cards, an expired ID, and $40 in cash. But his family tells New Times that someone called back within just a few hours that day and asked Musmanno to meet at an Ohio truck stop to retrieve the wallet.

When he arrived, the supposed Good Samaritan who had found the wallet turned out to be an agent with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Musmanno's stepdaughter Paola told New Times yesterday.

He's filed an I-130 for a green card as the spouse of a US citizen, but ICE is set to deport him today.
posted by zachlipton at 2:31 PM on October 9, 2018 [28 favorites]

@DylanByers: I’m having lunch with Michael Avenatti @MichaelAvenatti at the Vanity Fair Summit and he’s proposing a three-round mixed-martial arts fight with Donald Trump Jr. @DonaldJTrumpJr for charity. No joke.

...

...

...

yeah. yeah, okay. I do want this.
posted by prize bull octorok at 2:31 PM on October 9, 2018 [20 favorites]

NEW THREAD --->
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 2:32 PM on October 9, 2018 [4 favorites]

i closed the tab yesterday assuming I'd wake up to a new thread, but i didn't, so here you go

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new thredd

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posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 2:32 PM on October 9, 2018 [3 favorites]

Dunno. The CNN article said he initially accepted but later declined, but doesn't say how far along things were when he changed his mind.
posted by dilettante at 2:48 PM on October 9, 2018

Mod note: Let's move it over to the new thread, not double-post in here and there. Couple comments deleted.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 2:51 PM on October 9, 2018 [2 favorites]

I didn't catch it, but I'm curious to hear from folks who did.

I caught about 20 minutes of it before I had to turn it off because Cruz was pissing me off too much. I'll admit Cruz was pretty good at the actual debating, getting his points out there. He came off a bit as an attack dog while Beto kinda looked taken aback by his ferocity and just kept calling him out for straight up lying.

Ultimately I didn't hear much about it and I doubt it would have really changed anyone's mind.
posted by threeturtles at 3:24 PM on October 9, 2018

He's actually pretty legendary. He's one of the best college debaters in living memory. And that is really, really not going to translate into winning a debate that is being scored by voters and pundits, rather than debate judges. He's going to come across like such an asshole. Really, I cannot convey what an asshole a champion college debater is going to come off as.

It's so weird that there is an entire academic practice that boils down to winning arguments by being a douchebag
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:04 PM on October 9, 2018 [12 favorites]

It's so weird that there is an entire academic practice that boils down to winning arguments by being a douchebag

Doesn't that describe most of academia?
posted by clawsoon at 5:09 PM on October 9, 2018 [5 favorites]

We should argue for DC statehood for the right reasons. There's a good argument.

The argument is there should be no taxation without representation. It's pretty hard to argue against that one.
posted by xammerboy at 8:41 PM on October 9, 2018 [8 favorites]

It's so weird that there is an entire academic practice that boils down to winning arguments by being a douchebag

Doesn't that describe most of academia?
posted by clawsoon at 12:09 AM on October 10 [5 favorites +]

No, it really doesn't.
posted by craniac at 6:35 PM on October 16, 2018 [3 favorites]

Entrance to the Yale Law School this morning
posted by homunculus at 4:36 PM on October 22, 2018 [8 favorites]