Inevitably...

August 5, 2020 9:29 AM

Republicans Aid Kanye West's Bid to Get on the 2020 Ballot At least four people who have been active in Republican politics are linked to Kanye West’s attempt to get on the presidential ballot this year. The connection raises questions about the aims of the entertainer’s effort and whether it is regarded within the G.O.P. as a spoiler campaign that could aid President Trump, even as those close to Mr. West have expressed concerns about his mental health as he enters the political arena. (Danny Hakim and Maggie Haberman, NYT)
posted by box (87 comments total)

I'm not surprised, but I also don't give a shit because the number of hardcore Kanye fans who will vote for him is likely to be microscopic, assuming he even gets on the ballot at all.

When it comes to vanity celebrity campaigns, particularly on this level, I take a tip from Mr. Paul Anka: Just Don't Look!
posted by SansPoint at 9:40 AM on August 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

...the number of hardcore Kanye fans who will vote for him is likely to be microscopic...

Perhaps. But, the point isn’t for him to win, of course. The point is to deflect just enough (traditionally democratic) voters, in just enough areas, to hand Biden a loss. It really wouldn’t take that many votes, especially in tight battleground states.
posted by Thorzdad at 9:48 AM on August 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

Of course it could never lead to a question, however stupid, of voter fraud. Not here, not now. /s
posted by Freedomboy at 9:50 AM on August 5, 2020

The GOP is pulling out all the stops. They're going to throw everything at the wall to see what sticks in the hopes of clinging to power, because this really is for all the marbles. A few thousand voters here and there that choose Kanye in battleground states, some lost votes by mail from zip codes that are traditionally Democratic, closed polls, challenged votes... it's all up for grabs right now.

If they "win," there's no hope at all anybody will be held accountable for illegal acts to skew voting. If the GOP loses, a bunch of people aren't just going to lose their seats and the White House, people are going to jail. They know this. Act accordingly.
posted by jzb at 9:52 AM on August 5, 2020 [49 favorites]

Throrzdad: But are there enough of those fans who are already voters to tip the scales? I can't picture many hypothetical Kanye fan voters who are already registered, are leaning Biden, but would switch to Kanye if he were on the ballot.

On top of that, he's entering the race 3 months before election day, and even with his high public profile, that's not nearly enough time to get enough traction among undecided voters. Kanye's not going to be a Ralph Nader or Jill Stein, or even an Evan McMullin. He'll be more of a Darrell Castle or Rocky De La Fuente, at best.
posted by SansPoint at 9:54 AM on August 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I called a dear friend of mine in tears about this, and they yelled "I don't wanna talk about celebrities at a time like this!!!"

Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
posted by lextex at 9:55 AM on August 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Can he even get on ballots this late?
posted by Freedomboy at 10:03 AM on August 5, 2020

Can he even get on ballots this late?

Yes, depending on which state. As an independent the filing deadlines are as late as September. However a quick skim suggests that it'd be fewer than half the states and that's only if he's on the ballot very very soon.
posted by jzb at 10:08 AM on August 5, 2020

This is the exact same kind of cynical bullshit that led to Sarah Palin (All y'all have ovaries now, don't you? How could you not vote for someone who also has ovaries?)... And it'll fail in the same way for the same reason. If anything, he'll shave a couple percent off the batshit vote.
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 10:11 AM on August 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

It's probably not happening in Illinois. He's only submitted 1,500 petition signatures out of 2,500 needed (25,000 if you declare D or R). He also failed to submit the name of his VP running mate and a slate of electors as required by code. (Source)
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:12 AM on August 5, 2020

Awesome! Another very stable genius! 2020 just keeps giving!
posted by spacewrench at 10:14 AM on August 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Can he even get on ballots this late?

Probably not? As an independent, he'd have to set up an operation in all 50 states before the earliest deadline of any one of them (which appears to be May 9th or around then?). As a Republican candidate with official GOP endorsement, he's already missed numerous 2020 deadlines — at best he could get on a few state ballots, if he acts fast?
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:15 AM on August 5, 2020

Let up the suicide doors
This is my life homie, you decide yours
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:18 AM on August 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Oh he did submit a VP name just under the wire in Wisconsin: Michelle Tidball. TMZ is tracking some other states here.

He also missed Kansas, Nebraska, New York, and Maryland.
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:18 AM on August 5, 2020

Kim Kardashian is asking for compassion and empathy as her husband, rap mogul Kanye West, and their family deal with his recent behavioral outbursts that have called his mental health into question. (LA Times)

I didn't expect to be feeling all Leave Britney Alone about this, but all this mainstream media attention around what all signs are pointing to be a manic episode from a man with bipolar disorder feels really gross.
posted by btfreek at 10:23 AM on August 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

Mod note: Removed a couple comments for stigmatizing mental health. Please refer to the Community Guidelines.
posted by loup (staff) at 10:23 AM on August 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Wisconsin is an actual swing state, where it is possible that Republicans (and their supporters) could successfully raise doubts about Biden and get enough voters to cast a protest vote to swing the election. Kansas, Nebraska, NY, and Maryland, not so much. There are really only a handful of states where he could conceivably do damage, but unfortunately, Wisconsin is one of them.

I didn't expect to be feeling all Leave Britney Alone about this, but all this mainstream media attention around what all signs are pointing to be a manic episode from a man with bipolar disorder feels really gross.

I guess, but I also think that filing to run for president is a public act, and the media can't exactly ignore it just because it may be a symptom of a mental health issue. This is a totally tricky thing to cover, though, I agree.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 10:25 AM on August 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Kanye's third-party petitioning group, Let the Voters Decide, helped him obtain signatures in Wisconsin and is now hitting the ground in 3 more states to help him get on the ballot in Idaho, Utah and Wyoming

Those are not three states where I would imagine him getting much support. But more power to him. Having money to play with democracy and people's lives like toys must be nice, I guess.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:27 AM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Well, with the usual caveats that no one can predict the future, and the old Metafilter-of-2016 phrase "Turn, turn, curse, spit," I first saw this posted yesterday on BoingBoing. In a post by Rob Beschizza, he linked to a tweet from "Political Polls" (which just retweets national and state polls) that a recent general election poll showed Biden 48 / Trump 40 / Libertarian 1 / Green 1. When Kanye West was added to the options in the same poll, Biden stayed at 48 and Trump dropped to 39. West got 2 voters, with the Libertarian getting 2 and the Green Party candidate getting 1. So, 1 Trump voter switched to West and maybe 2 'Undecideds' came on board, 1 for West and 1 for the Libertarian.

Also, I remember seeing a Tweet thread from Liam Donovan (I think), a Republican pollster, who theorized that Trump probably used up a lot of his 'Undecideds' after 2016. He speculated that people who were 'Undecided' in polling in 2016 and who then voted for Trump (in greater margins than went for Clinton, which was part of why she lost), have now come onboard for Trump and are showing up in his existing poll numbers. He believes they were 'Undecided' in 2016 because they thought Trump would lose, but are now just Trump supporters. So, basically the current group of 'Undecided' voters has a majority component of left- or liberal-leaning infrequent voters who tend to go for Biden if they have to make a choice. I believe I've read other pollsters talk about the fact that, right now, it seems 'Undecided' breaks pretty strongly for Biden when forced to choose.

So, yeah, I hate that West is on the ballot and potentially confusing voters, but there is decent evidence that it won't have much effect or may slightly hurt the Republicans. You could theorize that either the Republicans involved in this are just trying anything because Trump is a pretty significant underdog for an incumbent, or (and this is something I am starting to wonder about), Republicans are trying anything they can to salvage downballot and the future and are not really working to help Trump that much.
posted by Slothrop at 10:27 AM on August 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

If only somebody could tell him that he has the power to singlehandedly save the world, and the bragging rights thereof, just by doing what Republicans don’t want him to do—
posted by Countess Elena at 10:27 AM on August 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Republicans really do like propping up unqualified, self-absorbed celebrities as presidential candidates, don't they.
posted by Faint of Butt at 10:32 AM on August 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

The point is to deflect just enough (traditionally democratic) voters, in just enough areas, to hand Biden a loss.

Who would vote for Kanye that wasn't already going to vote Trump? While I'd expect galaxy brains over at the GOP to just assume that black people would vote for Kanye because Kanye is himself black, but I'm pretty surprised to see that thinking here on MetaFilter.

Kanye has more than once worn a MAGA hat. Kanye has more than once had meetings with Trump in the Oval Office. Kim West (Kanye's wife) has also had meetings with in the Oval, and had Trump send a flunky overseas to bail out a personal friend from a foreign country.

So, besides being black, why do people on here think Biden voters are going to switch over to him?
posted by sideshow at 10:36 AM on August 5, 2020 [33 favorites]

I know people who lose their minds when they tally green party votes in swing states...but I have also known people who voted for Green party candidates in those close elections, so I have a hard time buying them as "lost" Dem votes. My experience is that Green party presidential voters are people who don't have that much interest in engaging with the political system as it exists and wouldn't have voted otherwise. I suspect Kanye will have a similar effect, and Republicans are being overly optimistic about Kanye's ability to be a spoiler because they think poorly of Democratic voters.
posted by grandiloquiet at 10:39 AM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

So, besides being black, why do people on here think Biden voters are going to switch over to him?

I don't know if moderate and other left-wing Biden voters would switch, but I see noise on social media from people who are upset he is the nominee, who call themselves progressives (but scratch the surface etc.). Maybe they would have swallowed their pride and voted for him, but maybe not, if a spoiler candidate suddenly becomes available.

So maybe that's why Kanye is being propped up. It's pretty cynical, but I could see why a desperate GOP would be behind this.

What seems important is to vote Democratic Party down the ticket, to hold the House and flip the Senate. Whatever else happens with the electoral vote and Russian/GOP/NRA/Kanye attempts to game it, having control of Congress will put an end to a lot of the nightmare of the last four years: alkie-rapist SCOTUS nominees, vanity wall projects, border patrol used to disappear people into unmarked vans, impeachment trials that go nowhere etc. etc.

This sideshow is a farce, but I hope we don't lose sight of the bigger picture.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:46 AM on August 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Maybe they would have swallowed their pride and voted for him, but maybe not, if a spoiler candidate suddenly becomes available.

Then these people are just regular ol' Trump voters, and should be labeled as such. Either they are so divorced from the problems in the world that 4 more years of Trump is no skin off their back, or they actually like Trump. It really doesn't matter which, either way they might as well put on the red hat.
posted by sideshow at 10:52 AM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

It's not clear to me that Kanye would draw from Biden's support more strongly that it would pull from Trump's sway with idiots.
posted by srboisvert at 11:11 AM on August 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Are people out there who are stanning Kanye that hard - and not actively concerned for his mental health - to the extent that they would risk covid to spend their vote on him? He got deserted at his own campaign event by the people that came after that Harriet Tubman comment. People are scared of these voters but have they actually spoken with any to prove that they’re more than hypothetical?
posted by Selena777 at 11:26 AM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I remember many years ago, I either talked to someone, or read an interview with someone, who described the scene of hangers-on around Jaco Pastorius when he was very unwell with bipolar, but was still touring and somewhat functional. Basically it was the worst possible thing he could have had: an entourage of people who were sustaining their own egos by being associated with him, and currying favor by giving him blow, buying him booze, getting wasted with him, affirming his delusions that people in his family who were trying to get him help just wanted his money, and that kind of thing. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an inner circle like that around Kanye, except now with Trump operatives.
posted by thelonius at 11:26 AM on August 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

So, besides being black, why do people on here think Biden voters are going to switch over to him?

Rather than doing back of the envelope math based on looking at a blogpost linking to a retweet of a summary of a poll, it's possible to look at the actual poll results themselves, which include crosstabs explicitly providing this information. The two questions about preference with and without West are stated differently, so you can't draw a conclusion from subtracting one from another, especially given rounding issues.

I'm not super impressed with the pollster in that they don't provide breakdowns involving race (they're UK based, so they may not view the US through this lens), and their website is a little borked including a broken download link - you can download the crosstabs from this other post based on the same poll. But putting aside the website issues, looking at the crosstabs (I'm looking at the ones adjusted for likely voters), and caveating that this is analyzing like 40 people in a 2000 person poll, it shows that:

1). Kanye voters are overwhelmingly younger, which makes sense because that's also his musical demographic. (I mean younger in a broad electoral sense, ie young enough to have still been listening to pop radio when say "Jesus Walks" dropped which I acknowledge is actually middle-aged.) Kanye polls at about 4% with under 45 year olds, and 1% with over 45 year olds. (Biden polled 49% / 48%, Trump polled 33%/44% with these same age splits). The younger a voter is, the more likely they are to vote for Biden - and also Kanye. This is also true to a lesser degree with gender - women are stronger supporters of both Biden and Kanye.

2). Based on 2016 election result, Kanye's supporters were more than three times as likely to vote for Clinton than Trump. Overall, Clinton 45%, Trump 13%, Other 11%, Did not vote 32%. Seems clear to me that Clinton voters are a key Biden demo, as are bringing in new voters and those who voted for third parties, given the strong performance of third parties in some of the close midwest swing states.

3). They straight asked who people would vote for in 2020, and Kanye supporters came 63% from Biden voters, 23% from Trump voters and 14% from Libertarian or Other. Every five Kanye votes costs Biden a net of two votes at these rates.

I can envision a low-information anti-establishment voter who may have supported Trump or a third party last time ("they're both equally crooked") who could be drawn to Biden now that Trump is the establishment, but who Kanye West could appeal to. Particularly a younger voter.

I remind us all of the 2016 election in Michigan, where Trump won by 10K votes; 172K went to the Libertarians, 51K to the Greens; 16K to the Constitution Party candidate.
posted by Superilla at 11:34 AM on August 5, 2020 [41 favorites]

Those are not three states where I would imagine him getting much support. But more power to him. Having money to play with democracy and people's lives like toys must be nice, I guess.

Hey he lives in Wyoming now. Maybe he can do this the right way and work his way up in local politics!
posted by atoxyl at 11:50 AM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

This sideshow is a farce, but I hope we don't lose sight of the bigger picture.

The prize to keep our eyes on: Aaron Sorkin's first reality series, The Kanye West Wing
posted by otherchaz at 12:16 PM on August 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

As others have similarly speculated above, I doubt the person who'd vote for Kanye would've voted for Biden otherwise--or perhaps would've voted at all. This looks to me like an overestimation of Kanye's pull with Black voters in general, of all ages. For the most part I think many Black people continue to see him as a deluded stooge of 45. That "slavery was a choice" thing (which allegedly came from Black conservative provocateur Candace Owens) has a long shelf life. He might pull a number of younger voters but a lot of them probably would've either not voted or voted for 45. Still not seeing how that hurts Biden.
posted by fuse theorem at 12:18 PM on August 5, 2020

I remind us all of the 2016 election in Michigan, where Trump won by 10K votes; 172K went to the Libertarians, 51K to the Greens; 16K to the Constitution Party candidate.

If the argument is that third-party voters can be convinced to swing the decision over to the D candidate, the Constitution Party is in John Birch/fundamentalist territory. No one is switching 10k+1 votes for a Constitution Party candidate over to D, except by accident or fraud. The hardline language and political positioning of libertarians and Greens (then and now) doesn't suggest they'd have much interest in any D candidate, either.

Since you're mentioning Michigan specifically: The 63% turnout in 2016 suggests there is a lot of room for other Michiganders to vote. There was record turnout in May 2020.

Is it as clear-cut that the third-party is going to have as much of a deciding effect, this time around? I'm not sure. The polls you're citing don't really seem to point to how things would break down in this state, specifically. Turnout may carry over into November, such that a spoiler candidate can't bias results as much.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:18 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Republicans really do like propping up unqualified, self-absorbed celebrities as presidential candidates, don't they.

It’s sort of a revival. It began, oooh, forty years ago, I’d say.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:36 PM on August 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I remind us all of the 2016 election in Michigan, where Trump won by 10K votes; 172K went to the Libertarians, 51K to the Greens; 16K to the Constitution Party candidate.

Also worth noting the biggest bloc in MI, which was approx 2.7 million voting-aged people who did not vote at all. These voters have always been on the table for the taking, winning even just 1% of them would have hugely influenced the outcome of the election.

D's feeling threatened by spoiler candidates like Kanye West or The Green Party or whatever is one of the purest expressions I can think of of just how badly they don't want to work to excite any of these people who are likely disillusioned by all politics on a spectrum ranging from "meh fuck it, I'm too busy" to "meh fuck it, I'm busy and my shitty life doesn't change no matter who is in office" to "meh fuck it, also they're ALL liars!!!" (somewhat true!), or some combination of those things.

"We're not Trump" or even "vote for us to stop the world from ending" is not the democratic messaging that will win them, and while I agree that someone being voting age and having a brain SHOULD warrant a guaranteed D vote against an incompetent fascist, it's not in line with reality and human behavior. This is the democratic party's responsibility to sort out, not kooky protest voters who we can not control no matter how much we scream into the void.
posted by windbox at 12:38 PM on August 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

I remind us all of the 2016 election in Michigan, where Trump won by 10K votes; 172K went to the Libertarians, 51K to the Greens; 16K to the Constitution Party candidate.

And the Libertarian haul was probably only because the Detroit News opted to endorse Gary Johnson rather than an actual candidate.
posted by Lentrohamsanin at 12:57 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

D's feeling threatened by spoiler candidates

If spoiler candidates didn't work, opposing parties and interests wouldn't bother to help prop them up.

I agree that someone being voting age and having a brain SHOULD warrant a guaranteed D vote against an incompetent fascist, it's not in line with reality and human behavior. This is the democratic party's responsibility to sort out

This line of "reasoning" frustrates me to no end. "These people are acting in a completely irrational fashion, you're dealing with active voter suppression because you'd win in a fair election, but it's your fault when you lose because you're not catering to whatever magical message would work with irrational voters and keep traditional D voters showing up to the polls."
posted by jzb at 1:04 PM on August 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

D's feeling threatened by spoiler candidates like Kanye West or The Green Party or whatever is one of the purest expressions I can think of of just how badly they don't want to work

It may come down to which candidates have serious ground operations in these swing states. Going back to Michigan, since it was mentioned, it definitely impacted the outcome there in 2016 (cite, for those who are interested). Ground game issues may impact Michigan again in 2020 (cite).
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:11 PM on August 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

but it's your fault when you lose because you're not catering to whatever magical message would work with irrational voters and keep traditional D voters showing up to the polls.

I mean, right/vindicated and out of power and a couple bucks will get you a bag of chips. If the Democrats messaging is sufficient, no number of spoiler candidates or Biden refusing to take dementia tests or Senators endorsing coups will be an issue, and there'll be no need to purity-test the left.

Unless... you're saying there is something to worry about.
posted by CrystalDave at 1:14 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

These people are acting in a completely irrational fashion, you're dealing with active voter suppression because you'd win in a fair election, but it's your fault when you lose because you're not catering to whatever magical message would work with irrational voters and keep traditional D voters showing up to the polls."

If democrats actually appealed to voters with policies that could actually stand to make a direct, material difference in their lives, then stunt candidates being propped up by opposition would be inconsequential. This stuff is not "magical messaging", it's the stuff that Elizabeth Warren was talking about when she said "why even run just to talk about what we can't do?" None of it is any more magical than telling republican voters that their guns will be taken away and that their unborn babies will be protected from murder.

And yeah, voter suppression plays a role in turnout no doubt! It's evil and it needs to be stopped. But I'm tired of people pretending like this is the singular issue preventing *all* 2.7 million people from voting. We can fight suppression and restore voting rights AND should easily be able to win over 1% of these non-voters. But it's not, it's always a close call. We bring that on ourselves, and then we pull our hair out over Kanye West and Jill Stein.
posted by windbox at 1:58 PM on August 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

His petition is being challenged in New Jersey, and someone put up a screenshot of the signatures and printed names. They were all obviously, not even subtly, written by the same person. I don’t know who’s working for him in NJ, but it’s not people with good, or even neutral, intentions.
posted by holborne at 2:03 PM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

And he's withdrawn the petition from New Jersey. Gotta love that the handwriting is so utterly distinctive to the point of being comical, they do a little "o" instead of a dot above the i's. Delightful.
posted by Static Vagabond at 2:12 PM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

windbox: I'm still not convinced that Biden isn't appealing to people. Those of us in the bubble of progressive politics have plenty of gripes about the man, but in a Primary Season with record turnout, the man got people to the polls to vote for him in a crowded field. He still polls incredibly high among African Americans. Biden is doing SOMETHING right, and those of us progressives owe it to ourselves to figure out what.
posted by SansPoint at 2:15 PM on August 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I hate living in the prequel to The Waldo Moment.
posted by Lonnrot at 2:53 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Also, Biden had name recognition and a perception of being a safe bet, especially among older voters. Thing is, "safe" is gone now. His campaign has an opportunity to reach for actual positive change that could help millions of real people in a time of compounded crises. He/they need to emphasize that. To the extent that Kanye will attract votes, it's going to be mainly from people who have so lost hope in representative democracy that they're willing to start tossing spanners into the works and/or completing the shift away from what a competent person can do in office towards authoritarianism with a veneer of democracy that's just ranking media personalities.
posted by Lonnrot at 3:04 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I don't believe Black voters are stupid. I believe stupid voters are stupid. That's why Kanye worries me. There were stupid Obama voters and stupid Hillary voters, all the way back to -- who's our last blameless president? Carter, I suppose. I came of age in Clinton times, and I can't forget Perot's effect, nor yet Nader's. (No, I am not inviting relitigation of that in this thread.) People wrote in "Mickey Mouse" or "Pogo" all the way back in the '50s, and I don't like to see Kanye offering -- being offered -- as the next moonshot/cynical joke candidate.

There was a time I didn't think he would be a joke candidate, either. I really thought he might go for politics, and that he wouldn't be the worst celebrity to do it. But that was many years ago. He is a sick man in pain, and he is being used, and it is miserable to see.
posted by Countess Elena at 3:18 PM on August 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I'm pretty sure this is the year where we're going to see Florida's legislature and governor try to just legislate their EVs to Trump.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:20 PM on August 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Unless... you're saying there is something to worry about.

There is always something to worry about because of the sheer stakes involved. Most people don't have the luxury of another four years of Trump and the Republic being destroyed. Hundreds of thousands have already paid the ultimate price for it. I am sure of one thing though. After the second Trump term it's not going to be "After Trump, Our Turn!".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:26 PM on August 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I'm pretty sure this is the year where we're going to see Florida's legislature and governor try to just legislate their EVs to Trump.

Republicans have dual-legislature control in every major swing state -- WI, MI, PA, AZ, IA, FL, NC, OH, and GA -- and their established legal position is that the governor doesn't get a say because the Constitution vests the power exclusively in state legislatures. I think there is a very good chance we see competing electoral slates in multiple states and basically have to hope John Roberts decides he doesn't want his name on the coup.
posted by gerryblog at 4:58 PM on August 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The goal of the cheating is to (believably) bring the canvass to a point where third parties and joke candidates make the difference. We're only now really noticing because Trump can't help but say the quiet parts out loud.

Make no mistake, there is rank cheating, already forbidden by law in most cases. That's why Florida is so deperate to keep people disenfranchised despite the huge fraction of the disenfranchised literally having no possible way to prove their eligibility. Which is why the trial court ruled against the Legislature's scheme. It's just too bad that McConnell managed to pack the appeals court, which was willing to ignore binding precedent and change the rules at the last second.

On Twitter and in the political press, that is somehow spun as being the Democratic Party's fault.
posted by wierdo at 5:16 PM on August 5, 2020

Come on, people. Those rats aren't going to fuck themselves.
posted by jonp72 at 5:48 PM on August 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Biden had name recognition and a perception of being a safe bet, especially among older voters. Thing is, "safe" is gone now. His campaign has an opportunity to reach for actual positive change that could help millions of real people in a time of compounded crises. He/they need to emphasize that.

Have closely you followed his campaign? This is what they’re doing. There’s clearly a problem with struggling to get attention in the midst of a pandemic and Trump’s usual outrages but it’s really weird to see people talking about his campaign and platform as hypotheticals rather than something readily available.
posted by adamsc at 6:31 PM on August 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Kanye West files to appear on Ohio ballot

Of the 19 electors listed in West’s paperwork in Ohio, six of them reportedly have the same address with several others also reportedly having repeating addresses in the Cleveland area.

posted by palomar at 6:35 PM on August 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

There’s clearly a problem with struggling to get attention in the midst of a pandemic and Trump’s usual outrages but it’s really weird to see people talking about his campaign and platform as hypotheticals rather than something readily available.

That's because nothing gets in the way of progressive centrism being whipped like a dead horse.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:44 PM on August 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

I'm still not convinced that Biden isn't appealing to people.

My Southern boomer mother (1946, so among the oldest of the boomers) has become practically progressive since Trump got elected, but she still won’t go in for a Sanders or even a Warren. She supports pretty much everything they support, but as far as she’s concerned they’re nuts. Even as she votes Democrat, she’s going to be ethically stuck in the Reagan administration for the rest of her life, and Clinton won two terms positioning himself as Diet Republican for a reason. This is the playbook the DNC, and Biden, are running with, and people like her are thrilled he got the tap instead of one of those “crazies.”

If you look at regional and age distribution of polls, she isn’t alone. Basically the backlash against creeping American fascism is well underway, but it’s really unevenly distributed.

Of course I’m in no way anxious for my Mom in particular to go anywhere, but as a practical matter this is a phase of history with a pretty clear expiration date. A two-term President could conceivably outlast it. The current mainstream Democratic strategy definitely won’t be viable in the 2032 elections, but by then perhaps AOC will be the mainstream. Idealistic younger voters just need to be reminded of the “long” part of the “arc of the moral universe” thing, and I’m genuinely sorry it has to be that way. I’m impatient too. January 20th of next year seems way too far in the future for what we’re going through now.

In the meantime, the lesson of the early 21st Century is that there are always fascists, and they are always trying to destroy absolutely everything for their own narcissistic ends. No nation is so special as to be immune the way my generation was raised to believe America was. The fight is never just to advance your own ideals, but to keep the narcissists and fascists from advancing theirs. Offense and defense are both a part of the game.
posted by gelfin at 6:55 PM on August 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

I don't believe Black voters are stupid. I believe stupid voters are stupid. That's why Kanye worries me.

And then there's the matter of folks who are just so done with establishment politics that they'd consider voting for Kanye simply to have a chance to delegitimize the two-party system into the wood chipper. Is it a terrible strategy? Absolutely, but we can't pretend that burning the entire thing down to the ground isn't alluring to some Black voters, some stupid voters, and most disturbingly, some young voters who don't, to gelfin's point, want to wait for the likes of AOC to become mainstream Democrats.
posted by blerghamot at 7:06 PM on August 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I didn't expect to be feeling all Leave Britney Alone about this, but all this mainstream media attention around what all signs are pointing to be a manic episode from a man with bipolar disorder feels really gross.

This is where the intersection-rubber meets the ality-road. Even with his mental health issues or as a target in a system hostile to parts of his identity, he not only has a level of privilege most people will never know, he has a hell of a megaphone. The question isn't whether this is punching down, the question is whether it's possible to reach high enough to land a punch.

There is always something to worry about because of the sheer stakes involved. Most people don't have the luxury of another four years of Trump and the Republic being destroyed.

Nobody has the luxury of another four years of Trump. If he's re-elected, there will either be outright federal fascism or a deck so fully stacked it'll be indistinguishable. Either way accountability of any kind is over, and the vision of a society of privilege for a few and destruction of public institutions for the many will be accelerating in a time when technological power increases the multipliers of either state and private capital power. The only way most of us will live to see it reversed will be literal bloody revolution and who knows where that leads. And that's just the consequences for the US, leaving alone what it could do as a military power or what will happen when it not only abandons climate crisis mitigation efforts but stomps on the gas pedal.

If Kanye wants to help, there's all kinds of ways someone like him is in a position to do that. I can't think of one single damn good reason why he ought to be the face on a campaign or a line on a ballot, though.
posted by wildblueyonder at 7:21 PM on August 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Of the 19 electors listed in West’s paperwork in Ohio, six of them reportedly have the same address with several others also reportedly having repeating addresses in the Cleveland area.

Election fraud is serious. Maybe it's time to put Kayne in jail? This kinda needs to stop, now.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:22 PM on August 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

This line of "reasoning" frustrates me to no end. "These people are acting in a completely irrational fashion, you're dealing with active voter suppression because you'd win in a fair election, but it's your fault when you lose because you're not catering to whatever magical message would work with irrational voters and keep traditional D voters showing up to the polls."

This feels like a permanent "talking past each other" situation. The point people on the other side are making is - there's also no magic you can do to make voters rational. If voter suppression and cheap tricks are rampant, well maybe a "fair" election doesn't exist. If you are a politician or political operative and your only job is to win elections, you have to know this, thus how is it not your fault when you don't? - to the extent that anything is anybody's fault, anyway.
posted by atoxyl at 8:25 PM on August 5, 2020

I don't believe Black voters are stupid. I believe stupid voters are stupid. That's why Kanye worries me

Once you start mining the idiots in American who never vote, all bets are off. I am assuming this is the strategy behind propping up Kanye. I don't know who he has credibility with, but 2016 proves I know nothing about the kind of chaos American idiots can create. I think this can only be bad politically, but the truth is that he doesn't have much cred in the world of pop culture, he's already a has-been among young people and a bit of an idiot. Even the Kardashians are trying to put a stop to this.

But I seriously don't know what the deal is among the politically unengaged, and since Trump I am hella suspicious about dumb people off the radar who might think this is a good idea.

The thing that disgusts me, and should disgust everyone, is the effort to use someone who is obviously mentally ill and suffering and to feed their grandiosity. "You should be president, Kanye." It is disgusting and reeks of amoral Republicans who will do anything, ANYTHING, to maintain power. Destruction of a mentally ill celebrity black man is nothing to them.
posted by Slarty Bartfast at 12:46 AM on August 6, 2020 [6 favorites]

their established legal position is that the governor doesn't get a say because the Constitution vests the power exclusively in state legislatures

The Electoral Count Act of 1887 gives governors a role in 'ascertaining' whether a slate of electors is valid. The wiki article notes criticisms of that law, and that it hasn't really been tested.

Assuming both House and Senate are in control of the Democratic party, they could vote to reject a slate of electors. That assumes a scenario where Democrats did well enough to take the Senate, but are still fighting to take the Presidency.

(Apologies if this is veering slightly away from the Kanye West topic.)
posted by gimonca at 3:13 AM on August 6, 2020

This feels like a permanent "talking past each other" situation. The point people on the other side are making is - there's also no magic you can do to make voters rational.

At this point the Democratic Party might as well be the man in Aesop's "The Man, the Boy, and the Donkey".

If they try to court centrists the leftists whine non-stop, if they try to court leftists they scare the normies. Then they're just carrying the donkey on their shoulder, they trip, and and the donkey drowns causing the death of the Republic.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:59 AM on August 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

but the truth is that he doesn't have much cred in the world of pop culture, he's already a has-been among young people and a bit of an idiot

I wouldn't go that far - from where I stand (as somebody who used to be a big fan) his musical peak seems to be behind him but if the internet is any indication he seems to have a certain permanent stature because of the way he's positioned himself as a mentor to younger artists. And his fashion endeavors are pretty successful.

I don't think many people want to see him get into politics (or having political opinions) though, and they do tend to see him as a bit of an idiot when he does.
posted by atoxyl at 5:06 AM on August 6, 2020 [3 favorites]

If they try to court centrists the leftists whine non-stop, if they try to court leftists they scare the normies. Then they're just carrying the donkey on their shoulder, they trip, and and the donkey drowns causing the death of the Republic

I think it is more likely than not that they will manage to win this one via the brilliant strategy of not being the other guy. Didn't work last time, probably wouldn't have worked this time if the past four months hadn't happened, but right now?

I don't particularly think that sets up the donkey not to take a plunge at the next opportunity, though.
posted by atoxyl at 5:18 AM on August 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

I don't particularly think that sets up the donkey not to take a plunge at the next opportunity, though.

It doesn't really help that cynically beating up on the Democratic Party is the country's national pastime.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:31 AM on August 6, 2020 [4 favorites]

Lentrohamsanin: "I remind us all of the 2016 election in Michigan, where Trump won by 10K votes; 172K went to the Libertarians, 51K to the Greens; 16K to the Constitution Party candidate.

And the Libertarian haul was probably only because the Detroit News opted to endorse Gary Johnson rather than an actual candidate."

Based on conversations with Republican family members in MI, there's a solid chance that the votes for Johnson may largely have come from Republicans unwilling to vote Hillary but unable to stomach 45.
posted by caution live frogs at 7:45 AM on August 6, 2020 [2 favorites]

If democrats actually appealed to voters with policies that could actually stand to make a direct, material difference in their lives

The Democrats passed their renewal of coronavirus relief in May; in the Senate, Republicans can't even agree on a package. And the so-called "liberal media" chalks the failure to provide Americans with emergency aid -- the result of which is that at least one friend of mine is likely to get evicted any day now -- to "partisan gridlock" or "Congress failing to act."

Given the excessive number of veto points in our system, I am skeptical of the value of Democrats proposing policies that the Republicans can prevent being enacted, especially when we can't trust the media to portray it that way.
posted by Gelatin at 9:35 AM on August 6, 2020 [4 favorites]

I'm pretty sure Kim Kardashian retweeted his initial announcement to her millions of followers, which of course is gonna read like support of it. So her being really concerned still comes off as disingenuous.
posted by girlmightlive at 10:10 AM on August 6, 2020 [4 favorites]

The Democrats passed their renewal of coronavirus relief in May; in the Senate, Republicans can't even agree on a package. And the so-called "liberal media" chalks the failure to provide Americans with emergency aid -- the result of which is that at least one friend of mine is likely to get evicted any day now -- to "partisan gridlock" or "Congress failing to act."

This. In a vain attempt to be "neutral" they basically hold nobody accountable. At that point what is the media good for? Shouldn't it be something like "Senate Republicans reject voting on comprehensive Democratic House stimulus and aid package" and "Republicans and Democratic senators disagree on second aid package, Republicans accuse Democrats of being too generous".

Each of these statements puts the onus of accountability on people instead of bothsidesing it. I realize that the media is terrified of being called liberal but JFC where are they now? They're giving Republicans the absolute benefit of every doubt and Trump still calls them the enemy of the fucking people? Have some cajones, already fourth estate.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:20 AM on August 6, 2020 [10 favorites]

It doesn't really help that cynically beating up on the Democratic Party is the country's national pastime.

Wait, were you not?
posted by atoxyl at 11:47 AM on August 6, 2020

The bothsidesism comes, in part, from Republicans screaming bloody murder and bias every time there's a major news story that makes them look bad.

The other part is that to a significant portion of journalists and editors, "balance" means they can't call one side out over the other.
posted by SansPoint at 12:10 PM on August 6, 2020 [4 favorites]

And to add on to my previous post a bit, this ties into a dead horse I continue to beat: Centrism is not a governing position, it is an _outcome_.

If the system were working properly, one party would propose a very generous stimulus, the other party would propose a more stingy stimulus bill, and they would work together towards a centrist, kinda mediocre stimulus bill that's better than the stingy party wanted, but worse than what the generous party wanted.

What we have right now is one party offering up a moderately generous stimulus, and the other party going "fuck you, we're not going to negotiate with you," and instead choosing to fiddle while Rome burns and the plague runs rampant. Meanwhile the fucking media in some misguided attempt at objectivity goes "Well, it's everyone's fault. What can ya do?"
posted by SansPoint at 12:13 PM on August 6, 2020 [16 favorites]

Is it possible Kanye might make the ballot in California? I'm looking for the biggest Fuck You candidate, and I think Kanye beats out Howie, esp in name recognition.
posted by ryanrs at 2:20 PM on August 6, 2020

Probably not. He would need 196,000 signatures in the next 75 minutes.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:44 PM on August 6, 2020 [4 favorites]

So how'd it go?
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:14 AM on August 7, 2020 [2 favorites]

As much as it may seem otherwise, there are not 196,000 Kardashians.
posted by box at 3:11 PM on August 13, 2020 [2 favorites]

Kanye misses the ballot deadline in Wisconsin... by 14 seconds.
posted by JoeZydeco at 8:41 PM on August 20, 2020

Kanye has been kicked off the Illinois ballot as well.
posted by JoeZydeco at 9:22 AM on August 21, 2020

And he's off the Ohio ballot too.
posted by JoeZydeco at 11:05 AM on August 21, 2020

It's inspiring that as quickly as they're trying to distance themselves from Bannon, they embrace his ideas ever more closely: surely this is just another manifestation of his holy doctrine Flood the zone with shit? It doesn't have to mean anything, it's just noise.
posted by Grangousier at 11:28 AM on August 21, 2020

Off the ballot on Montana. "only 3,972 signatures out of the nearly 8,800 his presidential campaign turned in were deemed valid"
posted by JoeZydeco at 11:43 AM on August 21, 2020

Yes to Iowa, no to Nebraska.
posted by box at 11:48 AM on August 21, 2020

For anyone keeping score, based on Wikipedia's list (updated for Iowa), Kanye is:
- On the ballot in Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Oklahoma, Utah, Vermont
- Pending verification in Missouri, Minnesota, Tennessee, Virginia
- Deadline still pending in Louisiana, Idaho, Oregon, Wyoming, North Dakota, Arizona, Kentucky, Mississippi, Rhode Island
- Application withdrawn/dismissed in Illinois, Montana, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia
- and he missed the deadlines in the rest of the states and DC
posted by ectabo at 1:45 PM on August 21, 2020 [1 favorite]

Not a lot of swing states on that list. Maybe he can still pick up Arizona.
posted by box at 2:57 PM on August 21, 2020

Kanye West's Campaign is Both Proceeding and Unraveling (New York magazine's Intelligencer, not paywalled), in which one of the Virginia electors who 'signed' 'notarized' paperwork pledging electoral votes to West says "Is this a joke?... Holy guacamole. I'm certainly not supporting Kanye West", while another says "Is there any way I can take my name off?"
posted by box at 6:32 AM on August 23, 2020

Interesting; while looking for something else here I found this 2016 comment: "You’ll no doubt be delighted to know that mefi’s own Scott Adams thinks that Kanye is prepping for a run at the presidency in a decade or two. Dropping in on Trump doesn’t falsify that line of thinking one iota.
posted by pharm at 10:03 AM on December 13, 2016 [+] [!]"
posted by TedW at 8:29 AM on August 27, 2020

I was saying something similar about Lance Armstrong about 10 years ago.
posted by rhizome at 10:08 AM on August 27, 2020