US Election Day 2020: The Sequel
November 4, 2020 12:09 PM Subscribe

Because of the ongoing vote counting in the US Elections which may take additional days to resolve, and the groaning size of the original US Election 2020 thread (excellent FPP here), this post is “Part Deux”. Let the MeFi servers and mobile devices everywhere rejoice!
posted by darkstar (1734 comments total) 74 users marked this as a favorite

thank you to everyone brave enough to actually look at election results and post about it here
i am a fragile soul with no real place in this cruel world
posted by daisystomper at 12:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [56 favorites]

Mods, please feel free to tweak this FPP as desired. :)
posted by darkstar at 12:12 PM on November 4, 2020

I’m not even American and I’m drinking before noon.
posted by Rumple at 12:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

Some NYT updates:

Nate Cohn, in New York 10m ago
We’ve gotten a bit more data in Pennsylvania, which narrows Trump’s lead to 8 points. To my mind, everything there is still consistent with Biden eventually taking the lead.

Nate Cohn, in New York 15m ago
The likeliest outcome by far in Arizona is that the remaining ballots are good enough for Biden. But I don’t think we can be 100 percent confident until we've seen some of them.
posted by medusa at 12:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

NYT reports Arizona will report more results at 9 PM Eastern.
posted by reductiondesign at 12:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

I just want to say: Good luck. We're all counting on us.
posted by mrgoat at 12:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [50 favorites]

Does anyone even read the comments up here?
posted by chavenet at 12:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [40 favorites]

Fascinating read.

Latif Nasser: "If you, like me, are tired of horse-race-style reporting, and need to zoom out, I wanna tell you a story. It’s about an ancient force influencing the election. And, as a bonus, it’ll give you an Easter egg to watch for as the returns come in. THREAD… Before I tell the story, I should say I first heard it eight years ago from @rkrulwich. And I never forgot it. Parts of this story might be obvious to some of you, but as a new US citizen, I knew very little of it …"

Threadreader link.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 12:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [73 favorites]

Does a new thread mean I have to start a new wheel of cheese? {sigh}

Right; where we at for the historical record? As of 3:15pm New York time on the day after election day, Biden leads by 248 EC votes (and 70.4m actual votes) vs 214 EC votes (and 67.6m actual votes) for the grifter. Arizona and Wisconsin have been flipped; still counting and un-called are Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada and Alaska.
posted by Wordshore at 12:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

mbrubeck: Assuming the WI and AZ calls are correct, then

Trump wins by getting any four of these five: PA, GA, MI, NC, NV
Biden wins by getting any two of those five, except…
If Biden wins NC + NV, while Trump wins PA + GA + MI, then Alaska determines the winner.

[handy reference imported from the other thread]
posted by chavenet at 12:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Remember the wonderful days before 2000, when we knew the victor shortly after 11 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day? And IIRC, there wasn't even a need to consider absentee ballots since they would not have made a difference in the outcome. We are so divided. :(
posted by Melismata at 12:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

From Ray Wert on Twitter: "Here too. Can confirm. Police have now been called in to the Detroit counting room to try and protect the doors. Feels like the fake GOP "riots" in Florida in 2000".
posted by Capt. Renault at 12:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Here's a 2012 FPP about the Black Belt / Cretaceous phenomenon.
posted by reductiondesign at 12:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

Aww man I just posted a two-paragraph comment in the dead thread. Guess I'll go back to Airplane! jokes.
posted by swift at 12:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

IIRC, there wasn't even a need to consider absentee ballots since they would not have made a difference in the outcome. We are so divided. :(

It's not just that we're divided, we're also trying not to kill people via coronavirus.
posted by mrgoat at 12:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [29 favorites]

Mother Jones: The Election’s Troubling Message: Even if Trump Loses, America’s Political Civil War Isn’t Over

This election, in a way, was asymmetrical warfare. Trump eagerly led an army that demonized nearly half of America. He told his troops that he wanted to vanquish the Democrats, the liberals, the radicals, the socialists. It was akin to a holy war. The country will be lost, gone, if Biden won. There was an apocalyptic tenor to Trump’s rhetoric. He wanted to inflict pain on the other side. He fantasized in public about beating up Biden. His namesake son, in one of his final campaign appearances, summarized the goal: “Let’s make liberals cry again.” Really? That’s what was important? But the zealot’s hatred that fueled Trump’s movement was real and widespread. And, yes, on the left there is a deep hatred of Trump and his clan. But Biden declined to vilify Trump and Red America in similar fashion. He promised—naively or not—to bring the nation together, should he win: “There’s gonna be no red states or blue states. Just the United States.” But what do you do when half of America does not want to be brought together?

The Globe and Mail: The election shows the United States is a broken country

Regardless who is deemed president, Tuesday’s results were again, as I wrote in 2016, a moral loss for the United States. Mr. Trump still got millions to vote for him. Unlike 2016, they were not voting for a hypothetical president, the strongman savior he advertised himself to be. They voted for a known kleptocrat who let hundreds of thousands of their fellow citizens die.

The United States is a broken country and a heartbreaking place to live. Dangerous times are coming, full of disease, violence and instability – regardless who wins. A second Trump term will likely lead to entrenched authoritarianism. A Biden term will likely bring chaos as the country attempts to rebuild. In either case, we will live under a pandemic in a decimated economy. I wouldn’t wish the pain of the next few months on anyone, including those who voted for Mr. Trump. We will live, and die, as Americans, one nation, united in fear – of each other, of our government, of our future. Pundits focus on the partisanship, but there are worse things to lose than an election. Americans learned that the hard way.

posted by Rhaomi at 12:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [77 favorites]

It's so telling that trumpsters are flipping over a "race" whose result has already been largely determined when the polls closed. They just can't help but want to make you feel this is a live race and the opponent is the one pulling dirty tricks.
posted by runcifex at 12:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Trump Campaign just announced a second lawsuit to stop a state from counting ballots, this time in PA (last time in MI).
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Well, and we have stupid laws re: not starting to count ballots that have already arrived until day of or later than the election. AZ is looking ok because it starts counting mail ballots 14 days before the election. (I am still very worried about it.)
posted by nat at 12:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

I honestly can't see Trump managing to claw back MI at this point. I don't the recount threshold is in MI but Biden is currently +0.7 and that's liable to get close to +1 when all the counting is finished. Unless Las Vegas has some really weird mail-in ballot numbers I think 270 is very close to being locked in. I know Republicans are hoping against hope that the Arizona call was wrong but I just don't see it.
posted by vuron at 12:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Here are links to a collection of voting scenario visualizations to play with.
posted by PhineasGage at 12:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

@ZackBornstein:
Once they call Michigan, Biden is gonna tweet "You're fired" and the global Internet will collectively cum so hard, we won't be able to use email for like 20 minutes.
posted by Wordshore at 12:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [92 favorites]

Per Nate Cohn:

In Georgia, the NY Times is expecting:

Chatham: 75-26
Fulton: 85-16
DeKalb: 93-7
Among remaining mail absentees

By my understanding this would give Biden GA.
posted by waitingtoderail at 12:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Trump Campaign just announced a second lawsuit to stop a state from counting ballots, this time in PA (last time in MI).

LINK, dude.
posted by Chickenring at 12:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Meanwhile, Trump of course is doing his best "if we just don't count the votes, it's like they'll just magically disappear" in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while insisting on a full recount in Nevada.

I don't know how much more transparently small-c (in this case) corrupt you can be, but apparently around 50% of Americans are just fine with that.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

LINK
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Salon: However the election ends, white supremacy has already won:

“ Contrary to what many liberals and progressives would like to assert, Trump's white "working class" voters are not irrational. Instead, Trump's "white working class" voters have made a different calculation about what is most important to them. Here, Whiteness and the psychological wages which come from it (especially the entitlement and privilege to cause nonwhite people pain and suffering without consequences) are more important for Trump's white voters than their health, income or even lives.

As the United States and the world await the final results of the 2020 presidential election, what are some key lessons that the American news media should learn from how many tens of millions of White Americans have pledged again, as they did in 2016, their loyalty to Whiteness and white supremacy in the form of Trumpism?

Race and the color line are central to American society and life, not peripheral to it. To ignore the color line is to ignore reality. In the end, reality almost always wins.“
posted by progosk at 12:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [38 favorites]

Danke :)
posted by Chickenring at 12:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

When Trump launches these legal challenges in places like MI and PA, does the Biden campaign need to respond as well?

I'd kick a donation to them if their legal fund needed it, but I don't see any open call for that. My emails from Barack Obama and Carole King have dried up in the last few days.
posted by JoeZydeco at 12:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

I barely napped the last two nights. Am now frazzled by it all.
posted by mightshould at 12:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Maybe add the whatever no US politics tag to this as well, so it would be filtered out for those of us who want nothing to do with US politics.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 12:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Here are my comments from last night at midnight:

Yeah in Georgia the gap is only about 100k votes with about 400k left to count. Biden winning is possible. Wow.

Holy shit, DeKalb and Fulton counties are currently Biden +67 and +46, respectively.

I think it's time to put my ~~cake~~ baked dessert where my mouth is: if Biden wins Georgia I will bake a delicious loaf of pumpkin bread and eat it.
posted by medusa at 12:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [34 favorites]

The Biden team is asking for money to help them with these legal challenges from the Trump campaign. I saw the fundraising appeal on Facebook ten minutes ago.
posted by all about eevee at 12:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Per 538, no new Nevada results until noon Eastern tomorrow, Nov. 5. On Pennsylvania, "Counties are working around the clock to finish counting, but we’re looking at Thursday or Friday before results are semi-final."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Chatham: 75-26

Thank you Savannah area voters for outvoting my parents who I have already complained about multiple times today sorry but elections just underline how much contempt I know they have for me and everyone I care about and it brings up a lot of childhood shit it means a lot. 🙏
posted by phunniemee at 12:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [64 favorites]

I promised to learn how to bake a peach cobbler from scratch, and then do so, and then eat it, if GA goes blue.

I’d be pretty freaking happy if both of the states I identify with — GA (my birth state and where all my family members live) and AZ (my home state since 1981) — flip from red to blue this year!
posted by darkstar at 12:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

The Trump campaign is declaring victory in Pennsylvania.
posted by waitingtoderail at 12:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Not Buck Murdoch?
posted by Zonker at 12:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

The Trump campaign, in a call with reporters, is claiming victory in Pennsylvania “based on math.”

LOL. They’re also suing to stop the count in PA, too, because they see “the math” could be a problem for them.

PICK A CONSISTENT ARGUMENT, JERKS!
posted by darkstar at 12:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

The Trump campaign is declaring victory in Pennsylvania.

The Trump campaign can declare victory anywhere it wants. What matters is how the state tabulates the votes and to whom it assigns its electors, none of which is affected by Trump's garbage mouth any more than the election already has been.
posted by Gelatin at 12:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

The Trump Campaign is falsely declaring victory in Pennsylvania.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 12:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

The Trump campaign is declaring victory in Pennsylvania "based on math."

Is that the same math that says he's good with money, extinguishing the pandemic, and over 6 feet tall?
posted by armeowda at 12:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [29 favorites]

Edited to note: this is a complaint, and not specific to the race. My apologies, I'm tied into knots.

I'm a liberal in NC, and my husband is a conservative and now a Trump supporter. Every awful thing that Trump does, David dismisses as out of context or a lie. He is thoroughly enmeshed in it. He calls Biden a Socialist, with a straight face, and is sure that his win will mean confiscation of guns. Pointing out that weapon and ammunition makers are making huge bank on these rumors goes nowhere. The mental gymnastics that go into defending the indefensible is amazing. If someone said "soldiers are losers, suckers, I don't see what they get out of it" to David's face, he'd punch them right in the mouth.

He is 100 % convinced that he is right, and Trump is not a racist. I have given up on him.
posted by corvikate at 12:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [136 favorites]

I came here for banana pudding.
posted by neuron at 12:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

I’m so sorry, corvikate. That must be unspeakably sad and hard for you.
posted by hurdy gurdy girl at 12:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [122 favorites]

‘The Squad’ Is Still in the Building as AOC, Omar, Pressley and Talib All Win Reelection to the House summary at The Root
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [76 favorites]

> The Trump campaign is declaring victory in Pennsylvania.

"The Trump campaign, in a call with reporters, is claiming victory in Pennsylvania “based on math.” They also announced new legal action in the commonwealth and will have a presser shortly in Philly with Rudy Giuliani."

I know this looks ridiculous, but has anyone checked the Common Core standards recently to ensure there's no provision for Democratic votes only being worth 0.5 Republican votes?

Also great that their solution to looking like they're in control of the situation is to bring in a cousin-fucker who regularly ass-dials reporters and reaches into his pants on a hotel bed with what he has every reason to believe is an underage girl.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

> if Biden wins Georgia I will bake a delicious loaf of pumpkin bread and eat it.

A moist gourd loaf? 😒
posted by Godspeed.You!Black.Emperor.Penguin at 12:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Keep in mind that these slow "counts" aren't because the actual counting is slow. It is entirely due to Republican obstruction before the election. What takes time is not the counting -- you just feed the ballots into the machine and you get your count in a few minutes. What takes time is the pre-processing of opening the mail-in ballot envelopes and verifying the registration and signatures before you can even open the ballots themselves. Normally this pre-processing takes places days before as the ballots arrive, so that on election day, all you have to do is feed the pre-qualified ballots into the counting machine. But Republicans deliberately instituted rules to delay this pre-processing until after polls were closed.

There are other states like California and Washington that allow mailed ballots to arrive days after the election as long as they are postmarked on time. But that isn't the case in the states we are waiting on. It is Republican rules that are causing the delay.
posted by JackFlash at 12:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [72 favorites]

Via Twitter: Ahh yes, a large white crowd yelling “stop the vote” outside the absentee voting center of the Blackest city in the country.

Earlier today, from the Washington Post:

Hundreds of workers on Wednesday sat hunched over card tables, computers and sorting boxes inside a conference hall at Detroit’s TCF Center, where a tense vote count was taking place for Michigan’s most populous city under the watchful gaze of several Republican election challengers.

Most of those doing the counting were Black. Most watching them were White.

In the weeks leading up to the election, a public push by Republican groups to train hundreds of election challengers in Michigan created uncertainty about potential impacts on the counting process.

[...]

Election challengers must be registered voters in the state but do not have to be residents of the city in which they are observing. On Wednesday, several GOP challengers were heard saying they were from nearby suburbs, including Bloomfield Hills and Birmingham.

Overnight, some GOP challengers appeared more engaged in conversation among themselves than the counting process. “My big concern is we don’t have anybody at the elections bureau,” one man was overheard saying, theorizing without any evidence that Detroit’s elections office could be manipulating votes behind closed doors. “You got to question what the heck they’re doing.”

Later into the night, a group of three men complained among themselves that the GOP’s challenging operation at the TCF Center seemed unorganized, that too many people seemed to be socializing instead of monitoring the count, and that none of them had yet seen a vote for Trump.

Lazy white dudes are confused by people in Detroit doing the real work. News at 11.

If you do Twitter, Kat Stafford, Lee Devito, and Kayla Ruble are good follows for Michigan stuff.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 12:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [32 favorites]

I'm sorry, corvikate. The US may hobble onward for a little bit longer as a state with a Biden win, but the deepening division highlighted by the election - and both the detachment from reality and willingness to win by any method legitimate or not on the fascist side - is really a a worrying problem. It is going to break so many relationships. So many people my age have watched their families get swallowed by Trumpism. I have tried to frame my comments through my current cautious optimism, but this is an enormous and difficult problem that is not going away.
posted by Lonnrot at 12:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [36 favorites]

"based on meth"
posted by doctornemo at 12:55 PM on November 4, 2020 [34 favorites]

Aaron Bycoffe, 538 on PA: "23,277 votes in Philadelphia, all for Biden, and about 5,300 votes in Luzerne County, nearly 4,000 of which were for Biden. Trump’s lead in the state is now just below 6 points, with 83 percent of the expected vote in."
posted by reductiondesign at 12:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

At the Election Night Integrity Project (a project of Data for Progress and VoteAmerica):

Votes Counted Nationally Thus Far: 140,627,730
Votes Counted Nationally For Biden Thus Far: 70,653,086
Votes Counted Nationally For Trump Thus Far: 67,696,029

Biden: 248 Electoral Votes
Trump: 214 Electoral Votes

States with not enough votes counted: Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania
(Election reporting data is provided by the Associated Press. Historical election data provided by the MIT Election Lab.)
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

"Basically the question is whether Trump can win all three of Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania. There are long-shot scenarios where North Carolina or Nevada come into play, but it's mostly about those three states. Very hard to see a path for Trump in Michigan or Wisconsin."
-Nate Silver on Twitter, about an hour ago
posted by doctornemo at 12:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

You know, I’m not buying a lot of what Mr Silver says anymore.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 12:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [21 favorites]

Peters in the lead now by 9,000 votes thanks to Detroit voters.
posted by Theiform at 12:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [24 favorites]

I was really worried about Peters. Glad to see that he is finally in the lead
posted by nolnacs at 1:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

538: "Biden’s lead in Michigan — one of eight states not yet projected by ABC News — has grown to more than 1 percentage point with a new batch of votes from the Detroit area. 95 percent of the expected vote has been reported in the state."
posted by reductiondesign at 1:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

honestly i could give a shit about nate silver at this point. the fact that he's getting defensive on twitter before we even know the results says a lot about his priorities. nate silver is not an important person.
posted by lazaruslong at 1:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

You know, I’m not buying a lot of what Mr Silver says anymore.

“You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of Silver.”
posted by atoxyl at 1:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

Thank you Savannah area voters

Your welcome!
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 1:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Gonna be honest, I was hopeful after seeing both New Zealand and Queensland go further left than expected in their recent elections.

We have talked a lot about Trump being racist on MeFi. However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way. He also gained a lot with Black voters. Surprisingly enough, messages that liberal white people consider dog whistles actually resonated positively with these groups.

The other issue is that the Biden campaign decided they didn't need to put in the work to get the Latinx vote. I'm darned if I can find the Tweet now, but a Latinx campaigner in south Texas said they'd been screaming for help from the Biden campaign for months, and the campaign did not make any effort at all. As a result, Biden massively underperformed Hillary. AOC tweeted in relation to this last night.

As has been pointed out elsewhere, people in states that voted for Trump also voted for "liberal" policies such as cannabis legalization and (in Florida) minimum wage increases. Even Fox News exit polling said most people want a government health care option. Democrats need to figure out how to communicate effectively that they will deliver these kinds of policies if they get the votes.
posted by rednikki at 1:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

This sort of scenario was completely possible in 538 projections. I don't like it either, but a nailbiter election with results taking a week to trickle in was definitely among the reasonably likely outcomes Silver+co projected.

Golf clap for Silver, but Bernie called it
posted by AceRock at 1:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

Anyone doubting nat, it’s literally the first thing on the page:

Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
posted by adamsc at 1:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

This sort of scenario was completely possible in 538 projections. I don't like it either, but a nailbiter election with results taking a week to trickle in was definitely among the reasonably likely outcomes Silver+co projected.

You could say it was the pollsters who got it wrong more than Nate but Nate’s contribution in this particular corner was along the lines of “folks, either it could be a landslide or it could be close” so I’m not sure how impressed I am with that bit.
posted by atoxyl at 1:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Michael Moore: "There is no crying in Trump removal!"
posted by No Robots at 1:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

darkstar: "The Trump campaign, in a call with reporters, is claiming victory in Pennsylvania “based on math.”"

Based on meth, surely.
posted by chavenet at 1:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

We have talked a lot about Trump being racist on MeFi. However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way.

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.
posted by primethyme at 1:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

Let me tell you that the sensation of Trump looking like on a winning trend is WORST than the sensation of my waking up during my first c-section.
posted by jadepearl at 1:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

By the way, contrary to what somebody said towards the end of the previous thread, we all know that the lack of a single clear explanation for what’s gone on here is going to make everyone commit more strongly to their priors about American politics, right? Myself absolutely included.
posted by atoxyl at 1:11 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

"You know, I’m not buying a lot of what Mr Silver says anymore."

I'm not a 538 fan. As a professional futurist, I'm skeptical of some of his work, and use other bits. And I skip their sports obsessions.

But I didn't share that tweet to celebrate Silver as a human being. I was interested in what he actually wrote, which is why that quote, rather than his name, leads the comment. (Name added for provenance; sue me, I'm an academic.) Silver's observation seems plausible to me, ad hominem snark aside.
posted by doctornemo at 1:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

Good luck US Mefites, stay safe.
posted by MattWPBS at 1:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Apologies for coming off nasty, DoctorNemo.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.

That's a good point. Maybe it's time to figure out what that is.

the lack of a single clear explanation for what’s gone on here is going to make everyone commit more strongly to their priors about American politics, right?

Ha, and here I am trying to figure out my blind spots. But on Twitter I'm seeing the Tech Millionaire Republicans say it's because Democrats wanted to take away their money, and socialists saying it's because the candidates weren't progressive enough. (Given the Fox News polling on some of the issues I lean toward the latter, honestly, but what you said.)
posted by rednikki at 1:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Contrary to what many liberals and progressives would like to assert, Trump's white "working class" voters are not irrational. Instead, Trump's "white working class" voters have made a different calculation about what is most important to them.

This assumes that there are no irrational ends. No irrational desires. Only irrational means to ends and the satisfaction of desires beyond criticism. All rationality is merely instrumental. I don't know about the rest of you, but I think many, maybe most, people who voted for Trump are irrational because they have adopted irrational ends, not because they made a mistake in calculating the best route to those ends.
posted by Jonathan Livengood at 1:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

A personal prior I will have to reevaluate -- personally I'm pretty surprised about the AZ (and possibly GA?) results, given how many other polls have been overly favorable to Trump. I know I live in a left-of-center bubble, but I didn't realize the bubble included my whole state. I was thinking AZ would only go for Biden if the national environment as a whole was quite favorable. I guess I'll be surprised if AZ stays blue, given that WI ended up so close, and given that demographically more similar states like TX underperformed for Biden too.

I'm also surprised that people seem to like both pot and fascism. Don't fascists usually want to take away your pot?
posted by nat at 1:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

We have talked a lot about Trump being racist on MeFi. However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way.

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.

And a third interpretation is that neither party seems poised to enact any sort of anti-racist policies at the national level anytime soon. So if you're a non-white voter who's going to have to continue to deal with racism and racists in your daily life either way, you might choose your candidate based on other things, like fear of socialism/anti-abortion/fear of big government.
posted by kjnet at 1:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [27 favorites]

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.

Or also perhaps that his campaign/surrogates made an effort to reach out in certain places, to communities that weren’t getting a lot of attention from campaigns - which there were warnings about going back to the primaries that the Biden campaign didn’t particularly have a handle on?

I’m all over the line that it’s bad analysis to go back to a 2016 interpretation of causes and ignore these swings (the Texas thing seems pretty remarkable) but I also saw an interesting claim that the same does not appear to have happened in Arizona - a place where there has been significant active organization against Trump’s immigration agenda in the past few years.
posted by atoxyl at 1:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

CNN projecting biden for Michigan now...Getting close to 270 now.
posted by unid41 at 1:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

The trouble with the whole natural hierarchy thing is that it has at least some appeal for any group that isn't absolutely at the bottom. If you're a white, straight, rich, Christian, healthy man, of course, it's the most appealing - but lots of other groups get their little dribs and drabs of authoritarianism too, and some in those groups are going to decide that it's worth it to be a few rungs down on the ladder because they're a few rungs up from others. You can put up with racism if it means you get to treat women and queer people as inferior, you can put up with homophobia as long as you can kick the poor and BIPOC, etc. So there's a lot of coalition available.
posted by Frowner at 1:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [20 favorites]

One of the lessons of intersectionality that Democrats may need to learn better is that some Hispanic and Black men may end up siding with the racist misogynist.
posted by chortly at 1:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [28 favorites]

Contrary to what many liberals and progressives would like to assert, Trump's white "working class" voters are not irrational. Instead, Trump's "white working class" voters have made a different calculation about what is most important to them.

Trump's 👏 supporters 👏 aren't 👏 working 👏 class 👏
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [58 favorites]

However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas,

I think it speaks to the success of Trump's propaganda machine. A lot of Venezuelan ex-pats I've known, before the 2016 election, thought that the closest American analog to Hugo Chavez was Donald Trump. His machine has won a sizeable chunk of the Cuban/Venezuelan community over.

Celeb endorsements from people like Jorge Masvidal helped with that too.
posted by ishmael at 1:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way.

I mean, PoC general are not a monolith and in many ways Latin voters (like some other PoC communities) are "small c" conservative. But what I can't believe is putting down a vote for the administration after the complete failure of a pandemic response. The only way that makes sense to me is maybe that the right-wing mis/disinformation machine is not limited by race, ethnicity, geography, or gender and is now finding an audience among non-mainstream social media and communication networks.
posted by FJT at 1:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

As an LA county resident and a budding abolitionist who is horrified by our biggest jail system in the world, I'm delighted that Jackie Lacey looks to be headed out the door and that Measure J looks like it will pass handily ("Care First" public safety plan reallocates 10% of the county budget to community welfare and away from incarceration). Municipal/county elections are so damn important. (On the state level, I'm also delighted that Prop 17 passed, restoring the right to vote to parolees, and the "tough on crime" Prop 20 failed. )
posted by spamandkimchi at 1:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.

(MeFi's own!) John Scalzi, The Cinemax Theory of Racism.

But the fact remains that in voting for Trump, they voted for racism: It was right there in the package deal, front and center, and hard to miss. They voted for it anyway. And you may argue that voting for racism as part of a larger package deal does not a racist make, and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree, as far as what people do to others in their personal and day to day lives. But voting for racism will make personal, day-to-day life harder for the targets of that racism.

...For the Trump voters, Trump’s racism may have been just part of the package deal, the Cinemax they had accept to get the HBO. For those who are the target of that racism (and sexism, and homophobia), however, it’s not Cinemax. It’s their lives. Day to day, and every day. And they’re all too aware of what Trump voters signed up for, to get what they wanted.

(By the way, Scalzi wrote that essay in response to the 2016 election.)
posted by Gelatin at 1:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

@JakeTapper: CNN is projecting that Joe Biden will win Michigan

@kylegriffin1 Breaking: NBC News now projects Joe Biden wins Michigan. @NBCNews
posted by tonycpsu at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

The boldest position that I saw some people staking out on Twitter even before the election just based on some of the polls that captured Trump’s gains is that some Latino groups might already be following in the footsteps of Italians/Irish/the old “white ethnics.” But obviously that’s going a bit far right this second.

Trump also just has a genuine charisma which appeals to people who aren’t particularly engaged, and he talks out of both sides of his mouth on immigration these days. The Dems built the cages, see ([whispers to immigration hardliners] yeah we’re still doing that stuff).
posted by atoxyl at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

We have talked a lot about Trump being racist on MeFi. However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way.

Careful there. Why can't Latinx voters be racist too? Racist against their own kind (they don't identify with those immigrants that Trump targets), racist against African-Americans. I have them in my own Latinx family so I know whereof I speak.
posted by vacapinta at 1:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [77 favorites]

Yep, Trump supporters are mostly middle class and like low taxes, "tough on crime" and putting "those people" in their place. The core of the appeal for most white people is the racism, though. I don't really know why people are so fucking shocked that white people, in a country built on a foundation of white supremacy from the very start, decided to elect an overt racist when it started to look like their numerical population advantage was slipping away; sheer numbers have allowed for maintaining de facto white supremacy without really having to acknowledge it as such, but in a world where the US population is >50% non-white (which is a few decades away), that becomes a much harder thing to get away with.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

If you are worried about Nevada, don't be.
posted by Slackermagee at 1:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

CNN's call of Michigan for Biden puts their current numbers at 253 Biden and 213 Trump. Holding on to his lead in both Arizona and Nevada would take Biden to exactly 270.
posted by Paul Slade at 1:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Listening to Biden now.
posted by doctornemo at 1:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Side note, but I've been seeing a lot of pushback on Twitter and elsewhere (for ex) on the term "Latinx" in election analysis -- it's an awkward phrasing that's virtually unheard-of to the people it describes and unpopular with those who have heard of it, and seen as a white liberal shibboleth emblematic of thinking that the "Latinx" vote is a Dem monolith instead of a spectrum of nationalities and ideologies that happen to share a language.

(If anything, I wish "-e" as a gender-neutral suffix would take off since it works so much better linguistically, e.g. "Latine," "amigue," etc. But generally speaking this idea of "fixing" Spanish's gendered words is not very impressive to most actual Spanish speakers.)
posted by Rhaomi at 1:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [45 favorites]

I bought a red and a blue bic lighter at the same time and the red one just ran out. Is that significant?
posted by sexyrobot at 1:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Trump's 👏 supporters 👏 aren't 👏 working 👏 class 👏

Um, maybe you meant to say they aren't ALL working class? Speaking from my purely anecdotal -- but real, -- experience, most of the ones I know (either that I am related to or have seen showing up for local MAGA rallies) certainly seem to be.

Not sure where NYT's source Edison Research did their polling, but as noted in other parts of the MF discussion, established pollsters seem to be missing a big chunk of the population or are being misled by a big chunk of their respondents.
posted by aught at 1:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas, they clearly don't see it that way.

If this all works out and I'm not just vomiting and/or fleeing for the next four years, I can write a thing about how the aspirational desire of American whiteness infects Latino men, and how their anger about being denied assimilation is a real ugly force this election.
posted by corb at 1:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [50 favorites]

Latino, Hispanic, Latinx, Chicano: The History Behind the Terms
Digging Into the Messy History of “Latinx” Helped Me Embrace My Complex Identity
About One-in-Four U.S. Hispanics Have Heard of Latinx, but Just 3% Use It

ProPublica’s Guide to 2020 Election Laws and Lawsuits

Getting the first 'You hit your favorite limit for the day' flag in nearly a decade.
Many thanks to all of you for being here.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

Suing one's way to an election victory is, uh, totally a strategy an up-and-up person would take, right? Asking for a former reality show star who would do anything for a buck.

Michigan. Wisconsin. It's closer now. Nice job, midwest.
posted by hijinx at 1:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

"Trump's 👏 supporters 👏 aren't 👏 working 👏 class 👏"

We still trust polls?
posted by asra at 1:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

If Biden wins this, can we take a second and recognize how much of a victory that will be? Like forget the "landslide" pre-election polling (I ignored it and so should most people IMO). Forget the silly idea that Biden would win Texas. Trump failing to win a second term will put him down with such losers as John Quincy Adams, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter.
posted by muddgirl at 1:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

Eh, err. Grover Cleveland.
posted by FJT at 1:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Um, maybe you meant to say they aren't ALL working class? Speaking from my purely anecdotal -- but real, -- experience, most of the ones I know (either that I am related to or have seen showing up for local MAGA rallies) certainly seem to be.

If Trump supporters are any sort of monolith they're a monolith of shitty white people, not working class.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

If you are worried about Nevada, don't be.

It’s not clear to me what about that link supports that conclusion, Slackermagee.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 1:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Scott Lemieux, LGM: Our Respectable Senate Moderates will kill us all

The collapse of the polling industry makes it hard to know what happens, but this would seem to be another chaotic result of RBG’s tragic decision not to retire in 2013. Collins being given a (meaningless) Golden Ticket seems to have restored the independent cred she lost when she voted for Kavanaugh. And greatly assisting here was Dianne Feinstein, who insisted on treating these deeply non-normative hearings as friendly bipartisan business as usual, even giving Brett Kavanaugh’s most spittle-flecked defender a nice hug at the end. The fact that this 87-year-old who has been a far-below-replacement-level senator for decades (Evan Bayh, for Chrissakes, voted against Bush’s tax cuts, but not the senior senator from California!) refuses to quit and let someone more up to the job take over is one reason we are where we are.

But let us reserve the most of our ire here for Susan Collins, who has decided that her top priority in life should now be to ensure that nobody gets any relief during a historic pandemic and depression. And while her vote against ACA repeal was the one usual thing she’s ever done, by allowing Republicans to hold the Senate she both makes it more likely that the Supreme Court will strike it down and ensures that Congress won’t be able to do anything about it if it does. What a horrible person.

posted by tonycpsu at 1:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [35 favorites]

Yeah, I feel like there needs to be some radically new approach to getting people into polls. Maybe we could have established firms sign people up at grocery stores for periodic check ins, for example? This could move from IID sampling to something more longitudinal: get a pretty stable set of say 5000 people per state, poll them periodically, and get a good sense of exactly how your sample population tilts relative to the larger population over time...
posted by kaibutsu at 1:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Trump failing to win a second term will put him down with such losers as John Quincy Adams, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter

The one term (or less than one term) presidents Trump should be ranked with: Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Warren Harding.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [27 favorites]

Yeah, anything to shuffle Trump out of the Executive branch is a huge win. Not the win I may have hoped for, but I will take it and call it a mandate, just like they would.
posted by mosk at 1:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [21 favorites]

I want nothing more than to see Trump lose (and ideally go to prison). I want him to admit defeat. I don’t see myself as a vengeful person, normally. But this fella has really changed my tune.
posted by sucre at 1:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

put him down with such losers as John Quincy Adams, Herbert Hoover, Gerald Ford, and Jimmy Carter.

You gottta dis Carter like that?
posted by Liquidwolf at 1:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [70 favorites]

More on the use - or non-use - of "Latinx" from Politico's chief political correspondent Tim Alberta.

Covered this campaign for 2 years. 30+ states. Thousands of interviews w/ voters, consultants, activists, candidates. The only people I ever heard use the phrase "Latinx" were white liberals.

posted by PhineasGage at 1:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

FJT: "Eh, err. Grover Cleveland."

A-and Geo. H.W. Bush
posted by chavenet at 1:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

This could move from IID sampling to something more longitudinal: get a pretty stable set of say 5000 people per state, poll them periodically, and get a good sense of exactly how your sample population tilts relative to the larger population over time...

I’m in just such a panel that Gallup runs. I take a survey every month or so, they send me an Amazon gift card for a buck.
posted by graymouser at 1:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Don't fascists usually want to take away your pot?

take away your pot, sure. but keep it themselves. same as with anything.
posted by 20 year lurk at 1:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Scott Lemieux, LGM: Our Respectable Senate Moderates will kill us all

I'll never understand why moderate Democrats in incredibly safe districts feel the need to hug, praise, or affirm in any way Republicans who are literally obsessed with killing us and our world.
posted by Ouverture at 1:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

kaibutsu: ... something more longitudinal: get a pretty stable set of say 5000 people per state, poll them periodically, and get a good sense of exactly how your sample population tilts relative to the larger population over time...

I believe USC Dornsife does something like this, but with a national sample. It looks like they might have had a fairly big miss in this election as well though.
posted by un petit cadeau at 1:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Regarded purely on the measure of success in politics, Jimmy Carter is pretty bad.

Ranked on all available human attributes, he should probably be an object of worship for at least a visible fraction of people.
posted by Scattercat at 1:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [56 favorites]

Yep, muddgirl. That's where my solace is. Incumbents have a huge advantage; Chris Hayes says that Biden is likely to end up with a larger vote share than any challenger since Roosevelt.

I may have been too optimistic that surely this would make a president unreelectable, like I was in 2004. But change is scary, and especially scary in a crisis, and even if Biden has done much less well than he should have done... to do this well against an incumbent (in an economy that has been, except for Q2 of 2020, pretty good) is great.
posted by Jeanne at 1:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Thanks for that link, docotornemo. Biden is really inspiring! I know he's going to win.

It's going to be all right, everyone. And six months from now when Biden has been in charge of an effective recovery plan for a while, the victory will be so much more important than the difficult road it took to get there.
posted by Kevin Street at 1:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

I'm checking out. Non-USian and nervous neighbour to the north, this all resembles the spear-tip to a trajectory of bullshit heading my way (Jason Kenney, Doug Ford, systemic racism of our own, etc etc). It's bad enough Trump got elected once, it's the numbers who are saying "Yes, MORE OF THIS"

Yes I'm a political junky, but true crime and horror are not my thing.
posted by elkevelvet at 1:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

However, looking at the MASSIVE swings toward him among Latinx voters in Florida, Georgia and Texas,

Assumes facts not in evidence.
posted by JackFlash at 1:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I'll never understand why moderate Democrats in incredibly safe districts feel the need to hug, praise, or affirm in any way Republicans who are literally obsessed with killing us and our world

Because moderate Democrats are basically the only people who place any value on concepts like "bipartisanship" and "reaching across the aisle"; the reasons for this are complex but have a lot to do with Democratic leadership's decades-long refusal to accept the reality that their party is reliant on a mostly non-white base, and to keep chasing after the illusory mirage of suburban white voters. (In other words, institutional racism is a hell of a drug.)
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

Eh, err. Grover Cleveland.

Haha. Oh dear.
posted by atoxyl at 1:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

his could move from IID sampling to something more longitudinal

Based on pre-election discussions, I think Civiqs also does this sort of thing -- my friends report getting an email once or twice a month asking relevant but interlocking questions (and re-asking old questions with slightly different phrasings). Presumably the company got their info from voter registration lists, as nobody could recall opting in and there's no payment involved.
posted by aramaic at 1:45 PM on November 4, 2020

Local report on Republicans charging into Detroit vote counting.
posted by doctornemo at 1:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

The only people I ever heard use the phrase "Latinx" were white liberals.

That’s a little unfair. I’m certainly aware of people from a more academic/activist background using it as a self-description. That’s just not a terribly big percentage of people who ID as Latino or Hispanic (and I’d wager the linguistic construction is not a great fit for many primary Spanish speakers).
posted by atoxyl at 1:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

> If you are worried about Nevada, don't be.

It’s not clear to me what about that link supports that conclusion, Slackermagee.

A large number of absentee ballots are yet to be counted in Nevada, including those in Clark County, which currently is 53/45 Biden, with what looks like over 500k ballots yet to be counted.

Even without skewing the absentee ballots more toward Biden and just assuming the ratio stays the same in all counties, Nevada looks safe with Clark and Washoe having large populations with over 50% going for Biden.

But yeah, no one's gonna call it just yet.
posted by linux at 1:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

That is terrifying, doctornemo.

Does anybody know whether Senate control is effectively up for grabs in 2022?
posted by Countess Elena at 1:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

OH GOD DON'T BRING UP GROVER CLEVELAND PEOPLE WILL GET IDEAS AND THINGS
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Politico has called Michigan for Biden.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

> Local report on Republicans charging into Detroit vote counting.

Brooks Brothers Riot 2: Boogaloo Boogaloo?
posted by tonycpsu at 1:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [20 favorites]

OH GOD DON'T BRING UP GROVER CLEVELAND PEOPLE WILL GET IDEAS AND THINGS

He is totally running again in 2024, I wouldn't be surprised if the necessary documents are already prepared. He'll run from jail, if need be.
posted by waitingtoderail at 1:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

goddamn those people at doctornemo's link are bad at masks.
posted by 20 year lurk at 1:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Does anybody know whether Senate control is effectively up for grabs in 2022?

2022 map is not favourable for Republicans.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 1:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Local report on Republicans charging into Detroit vote counting.

Politico has called Michigan for Biden.

My housemate, who is from Michigan, just now: "My woods are on fire, but at least the trees are falling to the left."
posted by tzikeh at 1:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

It's November in Michigan. More like "Mossy Oak Melee".
posted by LionIndex at 1:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

(Personal report: I felt nauseous after dinner and made myself get in bed by 8, putting in earplugs so as not to hear any celebrations from local dipshits. It was a weird night, not really comfortable, but much more than it would have been watching TV. I recommend it, but I would also recommend having stronger sleeping pills than I do.)
posted by Countess Elena at 1:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

waitingtoderail: Totally true, unfortunately.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

He is totally running again in 2024, I wouldn't be surprised if the necessary documents are already prepared. He'll run from jail, if need be.

the ol' Debs-Larouche gambit
posted by Countess Elena at 1:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

and Jimmy Carter.

Okay, so, please don't call Jimmy Carter a loser even as satire.
posted by aught at 1:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [81 favorites]

He is totally running again in 2024
He set up the groundwork for "Can't be prosecuted for things if you're running for election, that would be tampering with elections!" and we're already moving onto the reconciliation "we can't go prosecuting people for things they did, that's too divisive" stage, so see you all in 4 years same as it ever was?
posted by CrystalDave at 1:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

OH GOD DON'T BRING UP GROVER CLEVELAND PEOPLE WILL GET IDEAS AND THINGS

He is totally running again in 2024

Grover Cleveland 2024 - Make Zombies Great Again
posted by Roommate at 1:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

JUST IN: Instead of delaying releasing results until tomorrow, Nevada officials will release more results later today due to the high interest in how Nevada voted.
posted by lazaruslong at 1:55 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

He set up the groundwork for "Can't be prosecuted for things if you're running for election, that would be tampering with elections!" and we're already moving onto the reconciliation "we can't go prosecuting people for things they did, that's too divisive" stage, so see you all in 4 years same as it ever was?

Oh good, that will surely teach them this time around.
posted by Ouverture at 1:55 PM on November 4, 2020

2 ballot information releases in AZ tonight, says CNN
posted by chavenet at 1:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

High interest, you say?
posted by PhineasGage at 1:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [24 favorites]

Why does WaPo say that NC and GA have near to 100% of their results in, but CNN has them at 94/95%? There's a big difference..
posted by nat at 1:59 PM on November 4, 2020

Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn

With Nevada releasing additional ballots today, Biden now has a reasonable path to clearing the 270 electoral vote threshold tonight
posted by bluesky43 at 1:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Local report on Republicans charging into Detroit vote counting.
posted by doctornemo at 1:46 PM on November 4 [+] [!]

ai-yaaa, Mandiiiii! Per the caption it seems that's my cousin behind the camera they're dicknosing in front of in their lil knockoff Brooks Bros' riot. Pull your masks up, MAGA mofos. She survived Iraq and decades of motorcycling the world and now you [fifty expletives deleted] are huffing your COVID clouds on her. She survived previous toddler protests; please let her get through this one.

Mandi Wright: best journalist; best cousin.

Trump's 👏 supporters 👏 aren't 👏 working 👏 class 👏

Um, maybe you meant to say they aren't ALL working class? Speaking from my purely anecdotal -- but real, -- experience, most of the ones I know (either that I am related to or have seen showing up for local MAGA rallies) certainly seem to be.

Yeah! At the rallies!
1. if you were rich would you spend five seconds of your time that way if you knew you didn't have to to protect your everlasting endless tax cuts no, and
2. if you were Brad Parscale (or whoever the new Brad is now that Brad is fired and strung out sobbing in a ditch somewhere), would you want a bunch of pinstripe suits at the dag rallies making all the low-rent MAGAS feel less-than, no!
posted by Don Pepino at 1:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [36 favorites]

docotornemo, thanks for the link above to the Biden address. It was a huge fucking relief to hear Biden talk about unity, governing all Americans, the usual. The usual instead of the dumpster crazy pants shit.

Keep in mind, I did not vote for Biden in the primary. He was not my guy. I know there is hard work to be done dragging his "moderate" ass as far left as possible and leaning hard on him to prevent capitulation to the turtle, etc. Yeah, I get that. But as others have noted, if Biden gets truly, no-kidding elected then we will be in a much better position to tackle all the terrible shit that already existed when Trump got into office and promptly made much much worse.

As someone suggested in the earlier election thread, once a Biden victory becomes official I am putting up my holiday ornaments immediately to celebrate. I don't give a fig about Christmas but I don't drink and I'm off sugar. Shiny things are exactly what I need after this long dark journey as we collectively pause briefly before, you know, getting back to the work at hand. It is important to celebrate every step of every victory. I am off to bed now and hopeful I will wake up to an official Biden victory sometime tomorrow. Hugs to all.
posted by Bella Donna at 2:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

Not to derail with a random philosophy conversation, but I've been thinking quite a bit today about what this all means - the polling error, the closeness of the election, the conservative and liberal narratives about the last four years, excitement vs motivation when it comes to voting, the demonization of liberals by conservatives in a way that isn't quite paralleled from the other direction, and the growing presence of what are clearly (if you're looking historically) fascist overtones and behaviors on the part of a large number of individuals. Anyway, a few thoughts, and I'd love correction/qualification/additions to them.

We're living in the absence of a reality principle. Baudrillard is obviously the one who talked about this most prominently, and Byung-Chul Han is a more contemporary version. We talk about "reality," but it's just a sort of artificial gravity at this point, the way we use adjectives to add emphasis. There's not a sufficient threshold or consensus (among Americans at least) that truth or reality exists, so there's not really a way to judge policy by it. Or to put it a different way, correspondence is less important now when it comes deciding on what is/seems true than is coherence. If Trump's weakness on the coronavirus or on economic preparations for what would happen doesn't cohere with one's pre-existing perception of his strength, this doesn't get solved any more by compartmentalization, it gets solved by simply denying the weakness at all. Fake news. It's hard to imagine coming back from this, no matter how decent or classically American Biden's presidency might prove to be (still assuming he wins).
Part of this has to do with discursive terrains being defined more by circulation than by the old models of the public sphere. Michael Warner has a book on this, but like a lot of academics it tends to focus on the liberal potential without a solid recognition that it bends both ways, and in some ways has played out more favorably to the conservative side, where there is some alignment between specific, explicitly ideological news networks - Fox, sure, but OAN, Breitbart, RT, etc.). The Hunter Biden laptop story is a great example of this. This is a story that legit news outlets, including even Fox, wouldn't touch because they thought it such an obvious fake. But it didn't take much - once the NY Post published it, that's enough to get the story into circulation, which then begets new stories about where and when and how it circulates, and eventually gives it a sense of legitimacy, a sort of presumed value that comes just from the amount of its circulation. Again, I don't see a way to correct this problem. It's the same structure that makes Russian disinformation campaigns so effective, that allows QAnon to function, that enables memes to work so effectively (because they're enthymemetic, so circulation is what begets participation).
Carl Schmitt argued pretty convincingly the political is actually a very specific function and domain - the identification (and separation of) friend and enemy. I don't think he was spot on about everything he wrote, obviously. I mean he was writing during the final days of the Weimar Republic, and he eventually argued that it would need a benevolent dictator to come in and fix the problems (spoiler - it didn't), but doesn't mean his analysis of the problem is wrong. For the political to serve as a source of meaning, and not just collapse into other domains of activity or thinking - like ethics or social welfare or economics - it has to let people know who the enemy is, who the in-group is, and what needs to be done to keep the out-group on the outs. The Atlantic had a great piece recently about the weird cold civil war happening in the US, where Trump actively demonized the Dems, while Biden talked about uniting America. What Trumpism gets, I think, is that the there's real force and persuasion behind enemy creation, and if you don't want to name Russia as an enemy (and they're certainly not, compared to where they once were relative to the US), then might as well find internal enemies, or enemies at the gates (immigrant caravans, liberal wokeness, BLM rioters). This also seems like a structural issue, and not one to be resolved easily.
Part of what makes it so difficult to resolve is that the other side of the political spectrum is far more into identity politics than they are into enemy creation. One might think of this as a good thing, but I'm not quite sure that's the case. This is a more complicated topic, and I don't want to get into it here, but I think it's sufficient to just say that it's very difficult to mobilize a unity when identity politics tends to encourage fragmentation, as the slices of identity that demand recognition are cut finer and finer (examples just in gender identity would be the opposition to the idea of non-binary as a form of discrimination, the gender nomads argument that think any labeling of gender is offensive, and Facebook's alteration, some time ago, to provide a massive variety of gender identities). I'm not arguing that the recognition lacks merit - far from it - just that the process by which recognition is achieved, and that emphasis on it that we're seeing from the left in general, makes it a bit harder to unite against the right. The conservatives, by contrast, aren't really burdened by that issue.
Finally, we're disoriented by the technologies that connect us. Bernard Stiegler was always a favorite of mine in grad school, and has quickly become a prophet in many ways. He's like a more deconstructionist Derrida, but he focuses on the materiality of media in a way that Derrida tends to skip over. At any rate, his argument is that new communication technologies have functionally allowed eliminated the role of space and time, and now we're basically SOL when it comes to any lodestars. Think of this as the reason for what Lyotard described as the postmodern incredulity toward metanarratives. Or a reason if that works for you. So we get a massive increase in conspiracy theories, as we reach for things to provide some grounding, however temporary. Suffice it to say, we're not getting rid of any of these technologies soon.

So if Biden wins Arizona and Nevada, that's it? Or will it be a tie?
posted by Kevin Street at 2:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Seth Abramson
@SethAbramson
BREAKING NEWS (NYT): Counting Resumes in Georgia; Trump Lead Disappearing (Down to 1.4%); Biden Is Current Favorite (64%) to Win State, Per Final "Needle Update" by New York Times
posted by bluesky43 at 2:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

CNN has been saying if Biden wins AZ and NV, he reaches 270 and wins the presidency.
posted by reductiondesign at 2:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

So if Biden wins Arizona and Nevada, that's it? Or will it be a tie?

With WI and MI called for Biden, AZ and NV makes 270.
posted by linux at 2:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Jimmy Carter vs Ronald Reagan is the first election I remember, and I was shocked when Carter lost. Reagan's weird face and evil voice scared the shit out of eight-year-old me, and Carter, besides being the President, just seemed like a nicer guy.

And now all these years later, looking over the comments in /r/conservative from supposedly reasonable people willing to hold their nose and ignore the character of their candidate for the sake of some narrow policy goals, it's still baffling that people will go against their human instinct and vote for the celebrity con man, like he's just some stinky vessel for their hopes and dreams.
posted by swift at 2:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [39 favorites]

I can't let hope creep into me just yet I've maxed out disappointment with the world and am afraid to find out what negative looks like.
posted by GoblinHoney at 2:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Jesus, King of Trumplandia just 'claimed' the EV from Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Does anyone have any clarity on what's going on with Arizona? I know that they called it prematurely, but is this last ballot count something to worry about?
posted by Mchelly at 2:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I don't really understand all the hate on Nate Silver- he's just averaging very noisy polls, and producing a forecast with huge error bars and asterisks for things he has no control over. The attitude seems to be that we're entitled to more certainty than he's willing (actually, able) to provide.
posted by simra at 2:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [45 favorites]

But doesn't Biden need to win one more state besides those to make sure Trump doesn't reach 270? I'm genuinely unclear on this.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:05 PM on November 4, 2020

To add to hank_14's deep comments, one shallow reminder: when the USSR collapsed, many political/social thinkers wondered how we were going to keep the U.S. even modestly united without an external enemy.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [24 favorites]

Faithless electors and the 270 scenario, if you need some nightmare fuel.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 2:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

I think when you are angry you want someone else who is angry, even if they have flaws. That's one of the appeals of Trump.

I'm liberal as all hell. I am angry. It makes me angry when I see that Biden isn't angry. I want someone with some sizzle, some fire, as well as a deep understanding of the policies. But I don't need someone to tell me what the policies are. Just go sell some sizzle, win the fucking horse race, then we'll talk.

I genuinely hope this all works out. The downrace fuckups are super sad to me. The mushy middle of the road platitudes are sad. Playing the old game won't fix the problem.
posted by Lord_Pall at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [23 favorites]

In 2024 Trump will be 78 years old. He was already the oldest man ever elected president (until Biden anyway). I doubt he'll come back again in 2024 for another go at it, or if he does he won't find nearly the traction he had in 2016. More likely come 2024 he'll either be in prison or building the stupid media empire he wanted in the first place.

Or he keeps doing rallies because he loves the adoration. While I certainly don't see him actually running for President again in 2024 at age 78, I don't see him exiting the limelight.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

With WI and MI called for Biden, AZ and NV makes 270

And if Pennsylvania goes for Biden and Georgia flips that makes 306 (two more electoral votes than Trump got in 2016; if things go that way and Biden's social media team don't troll Trump with that fact I will be disappointed).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Jesus, King of Trumplandia just 'claimed' the EV from Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

And I am Marie of Romania.
posted by Mchelly at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [27 favorites]

This could move from IID sampling to something more longitudinal: get a pretty stable set of say 5000 people per state, poll them periodically, and get a good sense of exactly how your sample population tilts relative to the larger population over time...

Polling is dead. As noted above, even the USC Dornsife polls which used a stable panel approach were way off on the national popular vote. To replace polling, if I had some tech chops and/or money, I'd be working on passive tracking of voter sentiment. No surveys, just extrapolation from all the zeitgeist data out there: search, social media, purchasing, content consumption, etc. It all means something.

One outfit already on working on this is expert.ai which uses natural language analysis of social media chatter (but not any of those other potential indicators), and predicted the pop vote at Biden 50.2%, Trump 47.3%. Which is pretty close to the actual split at this moment and way closer than the polling averages.
posted by beagle at 2:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [24 favorites]

And because you might need a laugh, I copied this comment from mega election thread #1

I won't take credit but this really made me laugh

Will Roscoe @Goodish_Will And this is the way it ends. Not with a bang but with a WI/MI/PA
posted by bluesky43 at 2:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

Maybe we can save the "fuck Nate" to "leave Nate ALOOONE" debate for another time?
posted by tonycpsu at 2:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

But doesn't Biden need to win one more state besides those to make sure Trump doesn't reach 270? I'm genuinely unclear on this.

538 - 270 = 268
posted by beagle at 2:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Once COVID is over, Trump is going to go back to being a special guest star at WWE matches.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Jesus, King of Trumplandia just 'claimed' the EV from Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Rookie mistake from team Biden not claiming 'dibs' first…
posted by mazola at 2:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

If anyone's to blame it's Nate from Six Feet Under. I hate that handsome devil.
posted by swift at 2:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

But doesn't Biden need to win one more state besides those to make sure Trump doesn't reach 270? I'm genuinely unclear on this.

With Biden at 270, Trump gets 268. The tie would be 269-269.
posted by waitingtoderail at 2:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

But doesn't Biden need to win one more state besides those to make sure Trump doesn't reach 270? I'm genuinely unclear on this.

If Biden takes WI, MI, NV, and AZ, this gives him 270 without PA, GA, NC, or AK. 270 is 1 more than 269, which is the exact 50% of available EVs. A tie would have been 269 Biden and 269 Trump.
posted by linux at 2:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Trump claims
posted by doctornemo at 2:11 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Thank you everyone! I get it now. So really it is looking good.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:11 PM on November 4, 2020

Well I claim texas then.
posted by Lord_Pall at 2:11 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

I will share my 38 EV's with my immediate family and close friends.
posted by Lord_Pall at 2:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

I claim this entire website in the name of France.
posted by selfnoise at 2:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [33 favorites]

And Twitter claims: "^^^ this guy is full of shit" under his tweets.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

I would like to claim the Senate, as the Emperor did before me.
posted by nubs at 2:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Randy Rainbow just claimed Jake Gyllenhaal.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Trump claims

Yes but... Do you have a flag?
posted by ApathyGirl at 2:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [38 favorites]

Hey Metafilter readers, I'm a longtime Nevada progressive who can assure you, Nevada will come in for Biden, and strongly. There's always a long delay in the vote count from Clark County (Vegas) due to very predictable "irregularities" ---attempts to tamper with ballets by the dark interests. All the worry over Nevada going to Trump is entirely misplaced.
posted by ragtimepiano at 2:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

Fixing link above: expert.ai
posted by beagle at 2:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

BREAKING NEWS (NYT): Counting Resumes in Georgia; Trump Lead Disappearing (Down to 1.4%); Biden Is Current Favorite (64%) to Win State, Per Final "Needle Update" by New York Times

That's great news and all, but to hell with the New York Times needle. An error-filled, misinforming, worse-than-useless piece of crap.

🎵 I've seen the needle and the damage done 🎵
posted by ZaphodB at 2:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [28 favorites]

hank_14:

I think we are also in a chaotic situation, meaning the connection between underlying causes and the situation is non-linear. Once people believe that group means me harm, and vice versa, they increasingly mean the other group harm. It becomes a runaway feedback loop.

Things fall apart, and often they fall apart very rapidly.
posted by argybarg at 2:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

It makes me angry when I see that Biden isn't angry.

Lord_Pall, reading that made me remember something I said to my housemates last night.

I think part of what made 2016 worse for me - and what made last night really hard for me - was watching the returns on MSNBC. Because it was really hard to watch the angry, tearful, empathetic and clearly on-my-side Rachel Maddow from the past 4 years and the run-up to this election turn into a (more) neutral, (outwardly) unbiased anchorperson. I know she personally has skin in the game, like many of us do -- and some part of me had counted on seeing her feel it out loud, right alongside me and mine.

I think I felt kind of abandoned; is that weird? Probably that's weird. All I know is, I felt a lot better after I turned off the news and got my returns from the Megathread instead.
posted by invincible summer at 2:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

I appreciate that, ragtimepiano; I was just googling to try to understand how likely it was because it looks tight
posted by Countess Elena at 2:16 PM on November 4, 2020

All I know is, I felt a lot better after I turned off the news and got my returns from the Megathread instead.

Me too.
posted by glaucon at 2:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

So it's that single electoral vote from Nebraska that, with Nevada, would lift Biden/Harris to 270 instead of 269. Thanks, Omaha!

I'm still moderately hopeful about Pennsylvania & Georgia. Hopefully if we reach a point where they're no longer necessary for a Biden win, they can complete their legit vote-counting in peace.
posted by lisa g at 2:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Even Mitch McConnell is calling out Trump's nonsense.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., a Trump ally who usually avoids criticizing the president in public, told reporters Wednesday that "claiming you've won the election is different from finishing the counting."
posted by bgrebs at 2:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [23 favorites]

"The Trump campaign, in a call with reporters, is claiming victory in Pennsylvania “based on math.” They also announced new legal action in the commonwealth and will have a presser shortly in Philly with Rudy Giuliani."

By all means invite Guiliani and his sterling reputation. Just to remind people that your spokesperson, by his own account, tucks in his shirt by lying flat on his back and wrapping it around his dick twice.
posted by adept256 at 2:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Another interpretation is that they accept that he's racist but it's not a deal killer for them, and he's offering something else that they want enough to overcome it.

That's a good point. Maybe it's time to figure out what that is.

Unfortunately, judging from some of the links shared in part 1, it's more of the "Fuck you, jack, I got mine" belief couched in terms of "personal responsibility."

Which would suggest that the solution is for campaigns to stop treating the Latino & Black votes monoliths and make a concerted effort to find more specific groups and individuals to engage with for support.
posted by soundguy99 at 2:21 PM on November 4, 2020

I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY!
posted by nubs at 2:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [34 favorites]

I promised to learn how to bake a peach cobbler from scratch, and then do so, and then eat it, if GA goes blue.

Not a big deal, in fact, simple:

Preheat to 350°
1 cup flour + 2 teaspoon Baking Powder, + 1 cup sugar, mixed with 1 cup milk

Melt a stick of butter (113gm) in an oven-ready pot, pour in the batter followed by 2 - 2.5 cups of peaches.

Bake for 3/4 hour. Let it cool a bit and serve with ice cream!
posted by Rash at 2:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

mitches spine might be regrowing now he knows he can attach onto another host body
posted by lalochezia at 2:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [51 favorites]

Look, the election is going to come and go and we're going to probably see a court fight or too and some violent demonstrations, and then one day, maybe that will pass. Like grief or joy or inclement weather. But the things that got us to this point, that I'm trying to comment on above, aren't really going anywhere. So my question is: are we just fucked from here on out?

I appreciated this post deeply. I think about all of the elements you listed *a lot*, especially in relation to the rapidly accelerating disasters and shocks we will experience as a result of all the first and second-order effects of climate change. Who will conservatives believe when a whirlwind of fire burns away their houses? Their crying, stinging eyes?

I have no actionable answer here, but it feels like we're living in a William Gibson novel, but we don't even get cool cyberpunk tech. So yeah, I think we are fucked from here on out. No happy endings, but at least maybe some harm reduction?
posted by Ouverture at 2:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Since counting resumed, Trump's lead in GA went from 100k to 50k votes.
posted by linux at 2:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

We're living in the absence of a reality principle.

This really resonates with me -- in my head I've characterized it as a feeling that the other side is almost another species, and trying to reason or reach out and form a minimal common bond exacerbates the situation more than it helps. How far do we have to reach back to uncover a shared understanding of how our society should work? I'm afraid we'll eventually get to the point where we have to restart our understanding with first principles, but it won't because we want to agree on something, it'll be because we have beat the shit out of each other.
posted by swift at 2:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Sorry, that was for Senate. The lead is down to 70k: https://elections.ap.org/wagatv/results/2020-11-03/state/GA/race/P/raceid/0
posted by linux at 2:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

But that's good for the Senate.

Apologies for all the posts. I'm getting a little too excited about Georgia.
posted by linux at 2:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

With Biden at 270, Trump gets 268. The tie would be 269-269.

That single EV from Omaha (or "Obamaha") is really coming into sharp focus all of the sudden.
posted by gimonca at 2:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

And if I'm reading the NYT right, the Democrats need one more seat to tie the Senate. So if that happens VP Kamala Harris could be the deciding vote? That might be enough to actually get something done.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

When it’s going well

"I'm not owned! I'm not owned!" Trump continues to insist as he slowly shrinks and transforms into a corn cob.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

I'm getting a little too excited about Georgia.

One cannot get too excited about Georgia, now or ever.
posted by No Robots at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

but we don't even get cool cyberpunk tech.

*stares in handheld personal computer/communication/entertainment device connected to the entire globe.*

(P.S. Lawn. mine. off it.)
posted by soundguy99 at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [29 favorites]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., a Trump ally who usually avoids criticizing the president in public, told reporters Wednesday that "claiming you've won the election is different from finishing the counting."

Perhaps the first of the rats preparing to depart the sinking ship? If it looks like Trump's going to go down, and especially if his base starts to turn against him (nobody likes a loser, particularly one who throws a temper tantrum), these scummy fucks will happily turn on him to save their own skins.
posted by Saxon Kane at 2:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

With all of the articles I've seen, the mail in vote skews heavily Biden. Has anyone seen any data about underestimating those ballots? It would be comforting to see a large "blue shift" bring the results closer to the polls. It's absolutely bananas that votes postmarked by the election date aren't counting in some states.

Also, thank you everyone for keeping me up to date without having to watch cable news.
posted by nicoffeine at 2:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Just got home again after being out for a couple of hours.

So great to see Michigan blue now, I'm literally crying (in the literal meaning of the word 'literal')

Fuck yeah, Detroit!
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Georgia elected one of those qanon weirdos. Unopposed too.
posted by adept256 at 2:32 PM on November 4, 2020

If you don't mind possibly having an ox or two gored in the process, you might find this article about Cuban-Americans and fuck you, got mine informative, if a bit blunt.

(I was surprised not by how the older Cubans voted, but how their kids seem not to have showed up despite many of them literally marching in the street earlier this year)
posted by wierdo at 2:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Daniel Dale with a tweet for the ages: Almost everything the president is saying is wrong
posted by nubs at 2:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [23 favorites]

Thanks for the rollercoaster ride, I've got to get a little sleep now, but it looks like you're doing fine again. Good Luck !
posted by nicolin at 2:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

*stares in handheld personal computer/communication/entertainment device connected to the entire globe.*

And we also have the gigantic tech megacorporations obsessed with exploitation for profit! But I wish we had more neon lighting and Vangelis, personally.
posted by Ouverture at 2:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

FUCK YEAH DETROIT!!!
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

For all the pile-on against Nate Silver, please recall one of the last headlines 538 posted before Election Day: Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter.
posted by argybarg at 2:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Georgia elected one of those qanon weirdos. Unopposed too.

GA-14 is a rural red corner of Georgia. Metro ATL can’t save us from that one.
posted by Fleebnork at 2:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

What does the vote on Puerto Rican statehood mean practically? I assume a big majority of Congress has to approve statehood before we start printing new flags.
posted by swift at 2:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

it feels like we're living in a William Gibson novel, but we don't even get cool cyberpunk tech.

At the beginning of Neuromancer the protagonist fuels his Neo-Tokyo drug habit by selling 3 megabytes of RAM. Gibson's early stuff is kinda hilarious like that.
posted by adept256 at 2:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

Another weird experience reading Hannah Arendt's "The Origins of Totalitarianism" during the election:

The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on the correct psychological assumption that, under such conditions, one could make people believe the most fantastic statements one day, and trust that if the next day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood, they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest that they had known all along that the statement was a lie and would admire the leaders for their superior tactical cleverness. ... The essential conviction shared by all ranks, from fellow-traveler to leader, is that politics is a game of cheating...

posted by clawsoon at 2:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [41 favorites]

Re: the long comment above about "reality".

In the mid 90s I remember reading that the Republicans in Congress would not allow ststistical methods to be used for the Census. I was teaching Statistics at the time, and I remember thinking "But those methods work, and would give us a more accurate census". And I remember getting a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach.

Years later when Fox News was relatively new I saw a clip of Bill O'Reilly cutting a guest's mic. I remember getting the same bad feeling, along the lines of "he's a guest, it's not fair to cut his mic."

From the vantage point of today, it's clear to me that what I was reacting to both times was the gleeful denial of reality. Republicans know that Statistics wont help them get better redistricting, so they don't believe in it. Bill O'Reilly doesn't like what a guest is saying, so he stops him from saying it.

This denial of reality has been developing over almost 30 years, and they've succeeded. Roughly 50% of Americans don't believe in reality.

I wish I knew what to do about that.
posted by wittgenstein at 2:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [60 favorites]

it feels like we're living in a William Gibson novel, but we don't even get cool cyberpunk tech.

Have you ever watched a kid play Roblox?
posted by swift at 2:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

fur fuckssakes. The Trump campaign has asked the Supreme Court to intervene in a case over counting ballots in Pennsylvania that were postmarked by Election Day but received later..

Is this payback time for the originalist appointed to the SC JUST LAST WEEK?

I'm still holding out hope that the counts from those received by election day would favor Biden and make the ones received later irrelevant in that sense.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Nate Cohn, in New York 3m ago (NYT)

With Nevada releasing additional ballots later today, Biden now has a reasonable path to clearing the 270 electoral vote threshold tonight.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

clawsoon:

Kayfabe. I've long thought you have to understand something about professional wrestling, the role of the heel, and kayfabe to understand Donald Trump.
posted by argybarg at 2:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

Nate Cohn, in New York 2m ago. NYT.

Trump’s lead in Georgia is down to 1.4 points with a lot of Democratic vote still out. Will be razor thin here, and a recount seems likely either way.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

I'm not sure I understand. How certain are we at this point that GOP retains senate majority? And how much of a majority? Is there a chance Dems can eke out a 50/50 Senate split (also, as a hypothetical - how do that handle that re: majority/minority leaders?)

Looking at the NYT, right now we are 47 D-48 R, with 5 seats uncalled.

These 5 remaining races are, with the current votes (according to NYT) and the incumbent*:
- MI: Peters* (D) 49.2%, James (R) 48.9%, ~96% reporting
- NC: Tillis* (R) 48.7%, Cunningham (D) 46.9%, ~94% reporting
- GA: Perdue* (R) 50.5%, Ossoff (D) 47.2%, ~93% reporting
- AK: Sullivan* (R) 62.9%, Gross (D) 31.8%, ~56% reporting
- Plus the GA special: Warnock (D) 32.2%, Loeffler (R) 26.3%, Collins (R) 20.3%, ~92% reporting -- since no candidate won a 50% majority, race will proceed to a Warnock (D) vs. Loeffler (R) runoff on January 5

So the Republicans need 3 of the 5 above races to get 51 Senate seats, and there are multiple options for them to get those seats.
posted by andrewesque at 2:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

We have the megacorporations using the handheld personal computer/communication/entertainment device to brainwash people into letting them write the laws they want. See California, Uber, Lyft
posted by joeyh at 2:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

I wish I knew what to do about that.

I have posted about deep canvassing recently, but I think that only works on people who are disengaged or weak right supporters. For the true believers? I feel like there is more useful information to be found in cult deprogramming than in anything else.
posted by Ouverture at 2:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

Jacobin is having a election retrospective with Vivek Chibber in 20 minutes here
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 2:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Interestingly, since you mentioned wrestling. You can see some public donor information, and although some big names, like Mark Calaway (The Undertaker) show large donations to Trump, there are a ton of smaller, repeat donations to places like ActBlue from those working behind the scenes and offices of the WWE. I wish I had a solid breakdown of how the company as a whole seems to be politically. Because Vince and Linda McMahon are super close to Trump but a lot of people who work for WWE seem not to be.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:43 PM on November 4, 2020

The Fox News website (!) has Biden w/264 EC votes.
posted by doctornemo at 2:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Steve Bannon calls for the Bill Barr to send marshals to arrest Jack Dorsey and "seize every piece of equipment in there"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
posted by bluesky43 at 2:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong here, but in the GA Perdue/Ossoff race, if the race narrows to the point where Perdue is sub-50 percent, I think that triggers a runoff in GA? I'm not sure Ossoff can overtake him completely, but getting Perdue sub-50 I think is almost a given seeing how the end of the GA count is trending.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Personal digress wrt Mark Calaway (The Undertaker):
When my wife and I honeymooned in Wales, little kids tended to follow me around, asking if I was The Undertaker. At the time - as now - I was bearded, had long hair, was stout.

Lots of fun.
/digression
posted by doctornemo at 2:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

What does the vote on Puerto Rican statehood mean practically? I assume a big majority of Congress has to approve statehood before we start printing new flags.

Yeah, it was just a referendum; there's a decent article on it here.

A bill giving statehood to us here in DC passed the House this year, which was nice but obviously more is needed. Maybe there are other capital cities that lack voting representation in the legislature but I can't think of any. Thank goodness for the 23rd Amendment.
posted by exogenous at 2:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

(I was surprised not by how the older Cubans voted, but how their kids seem not to have showed up despite many of them literally marching in the street earlier this year)

I grew up voting in every. damn. election and primary because if your family is going to flee communism, then there is no better way to celebrate than to vote.

My dad told me two days ago that he voted for Trump. Again. In Georgia. I thought I'd successfully talked him out of it, but he came to dinner and said that instead of voting for Kanye (his protest vote) he voted for Trump because he remembered that Obama once shook Raul Castro's hand.

Not even Biden. Someone else shook that dictators hand.

And that is despite all of the dictator hands that Trump has happily shaken. But that one dictator in Cuba is the only one that counts.

I voted in PA, made cranky yard signs and gave them to friends, gave everyone at work the day off and hung out with my kid while my husband phone banked and knocked on doors. I don't know what I'm going to do with my dad.
posted by Alison at 2:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [59 favorites]

We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, that there’s a drive into deep left field by Castellanos and that'll be a home run. And so that'll make it a 4-0 ballgame.
posted by Kybard at 2:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

it looks like FoxNews but not the NYT has called Arizona for Biden. These differing counts are infuriating.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I am claiming, for EV purposes, that I drive a Tesla.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

It's almost lie Fox is incentivized to have upset Conservatives. Hmmm.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 2:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I've been following the NYT results because they seem more cautious about calling states and I don't wanna get my hopes up.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

This is a great graph of who is calling what right now and has been keeping me sane
h/t to whomever in the first megathread brought it to my attention.
posted by zara at 2:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

it looks like FoxNews but not the NYT has called Arizona for Biden. These differing counts are infuriating.

Fox dumping Trump like yesterday's bad room service.
posted by swift at 2:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Comparing the popular vote to national polls right now is premature. There are literally millions of ballots yet to be counted in California alone, which will probably increase Biden's national margin by a full percentage point.
posted by mbrubeck at 2:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

I think somebody at Fox long ago decided that Republicans can't win elections without accurate polls, so they gave the statisticians a rare amount of editorial independence.
posted by Kevin Street at 2:55 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

@Acosta
: Source close to WH said it's apparent GOP officials losing patience w/Trump's behavior as he baselessly claims fraud is robbing him of presidency. Trump "bleeding GOP support" said source, who likened Trump complaints to an "ambulance chasing routine" #CNN
5:37 PM · Nov 4, 2020·Twitter Web App

The fucking rats are leaving the fucking ship. I hope they all fucking drown.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [78 favorites]

Yeah the popular vote... Just a reminder that Biden is ahead by 3 million and received more votes for president than anyone in history.

The EC has to go.
posted by adept256 at 2:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [44 favorites]

I'm never trusting polls again. I thought I was pessimistic, but I wasn't pessimistic enough.
posted by suelac at 2:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

> "bleeding GOP support"

Wait, I thought we weren't doing "increasingly isolated" anymore.
posted by tonycpsu at 2:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

Biden should hint that there'll be major investigations but that he's willing to make deals with lower-level players who will spill the beans on Trump & his inner circle
posted by Saxon Kane at 2:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

California also has 4 million uncounted votes left (roughly) and currently is at a 2-1 margin for Biden. So popular vote is pretty clear.
posted by nat at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

AP called Michigan for Biden
posted by cashman at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [20 favorites]

Roll 'em up like the cheap mob they are...
posted by PhineasGage at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

there are a ton of smaller, repeat donations to places like ActBlue from those working behind the scenes and offices of the WWE

Besides the very vague generalization that entertainment tech folks tend liberal-ish, they just watched their entire industry collapse in March, and it ain't comin' back until vaccine or at least a leveling of infection rates.

Putting Biden in the office is totally in their economic self-interest.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Pennsylvania's black-letter law, the Actual Rules, for how mail-in and absentee votes are to be counted, says thusly: Ballots must be at the polling place before 8 PM on the day of the election. Physically, they must be there. Pennsylvania does not say anything about postmarking in the actual election code.

THEN there were allegations of slowing down the postal service. Maybe that was real, maybe it wasn't. Maybe the post office had trouble what with the covid stuff and that was the cause of the mail delays. Whatever.

THEN the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court ruled (out of nowhere) that boards of elections had to to count mail-in ballots postmarked by Nov. 3 and received by Nov. 6. (This is not written in the law, it's a judicial ruling.)

THEN Pennsylvania Republicans appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court (The one with Boof Kavanaugh and Handmaid Covid Barrett) and the Supreme Court said "Don't bother us with this. The lower court's ruling stands"

This is why the whole "allow ballots postmarked on Nov. 3" thing in Pennsylvania is in question. It wasn't an actual law, it was a court ruling from the state court and the US Supreme Court declined to hear it stating that there "was not time" before the election and leaving the door open to addressing the issue (if there was any interest, obviously) after the election.
posted by which_chick at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [29 favorites]

It'll be interesting to know what the mail failure rate was in the end. There was some real fear that a 2016-sized polling error PLUS some natural (or unnatural) problems in the USPS would be enough to flip Biden's chances. Where we stand right now, there's no good estimate of what's been lost in the mail. I know the spoilage numbers have been surprisingly low (I heard something like 0.3% vs a usual 1.5% or thereabouts), but curious if mail was lost other ways.
posted by kaibutsu at 3:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Biden at 264 electoral votes.

Alison, is your dad also angry with Pope Francis for shaking hands w/ Raul Castro?
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

received more votes for president than anyone in history

The population is 330 million, there are more votes to be had. "More votes than anyone ever" is not a relevant data point; "won an absolute majority" is.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 3:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

If you are looking to help Georgia and Nevada voters cure their ballots that have been rejected, you can sign up at Vote Save America for training.
posted by rockindata at 3:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

The Twitterverse was not happy about The Gap's attempt at red+blue hoodie togetherness.
posted by clawsoon at 3:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

zara, very useful page. Thank you.
posted by doctornemo at 3:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

With all of the articles I've seen, the mail in vote skews heavily Biden. Has anyone seen any data about underestimating those ballots?

In many (most? all?) states, it's trivial to look up the party affiliation of the person who filled out ballot. In California, my name and address is right on the outside, and it takes a 10 second search to find out I'm a registered Democrat. So, the Orange County election people didn't know I voted for Biden until they processed my vote, but anyone trying to guess the "skew" could have used my ballot to guess.

Edit: Also, in general this election, Dems were much more likely to vote by mail rather than in person because of COVID-19 reasons of course. But, some of these guesses are based on the party affiliation of the ballots themselves.
posted by sideshow at 3:05 PM on November 4, 2020

There are 40,000 ballots to cure in Fulton County alone.
posted by rockindata at 3:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Federal Election Commissioner Ellen Weintraub:

"I would not have thought that I needed to say this, but candidates can’t just “claim” states.

That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works."
posted by Major Clanger at 3:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [59 favorites]

> I was disturbed by the quality of reasons given

r/conservative is heavily moderated, so the mods probably deleted responses that made them look bad.
posted by sebastienbailard at 3:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

I just skimmed a front page Reddit post where r/Conservative commenters were asked to explain their reasons for voting Trump. I was disturbed by the quality of reasons given, and the fact that Reddit itself keeps platforming that sub in particular.

Steve Huffman is a Libertarian doomer who has a bunker in New Zealand and was all in for Ron Paul back in the day. That Reddit keeps platforming right-wingers and has been institutionally slow to respond to overt racists and fascists may be disturbing but it is not especially surprising.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 3:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Nate Cohn, in New York 23m ago. NYT

Trump’s lead is down to 5 points in Pennsylvania. It’s not clear how much more counting there’ll be by nightfall, but his margin has already been more than cut in half today.
posted by bluesky43 at 3:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Biden should hint that there'll be major investigations but that he's willing to make deals with lower-level players who will spill the beans on Trump & his inner circle

Hint, hell. Biden should appoint a fire-breathing anti-corruption Attorney General who should promise justice on a scale that exceeds Watergate, and mention at every opportunity that Nixon's former Attorney General John Mitchell did time in prison.
posted by Gelatin at 3:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [53 favorites]

Weird that Fox are the ones who have called the most states for Biden, but oh well...
posted by piyushnz at 3:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Trump’s lead is down to 5 points in Pennsylvania. It’s not clear how much more counting there’ll be by nightfall, but his margin has already been more than cut in half today.

Not surprising. Absentee ballots in Philly were coming in more than 3:1 for Biden.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Maybe even Fox is getting fed up with him?
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:10 PM on November 4, 2020

Fox's decision desk, like their polling arm, is staffed with reality-based stats people. Remember 2012 and when Karl Rove went on a rant against Arnon Mishkin (who heads the Fox decision desk)?

It's a bit weird considering how little of the rest of the network is reality-based, but there you go.
posted by nat at 3:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

I find the 538 live feed to be the best way to track this stuff, but their detached, somewhat jovial tone can get a little eerie. They remind me of jaded Star Trek aliens who pit alien races against each other and bet on the outcome. "It should be a very bloody, amusing match, and we will be most interested to see who prevails..."
posted by Ursula Hitler at 3:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

> I was disturbed by the quality of reasons given

r/conservative is heavily moderated, so the mods probably deleted responses that made them look bad.

I can't speak for polymodus, but having looked at the reddit thread briefly myself, the quality that disturbs me is the extent to which people who seem to be intelligent, coherent, and well-spoken have completely swallowed the Fox News narrative - they'll give you a paragraph on how his policies with China have been great, with absolutely no acknowledgement of the 100% incontrovertible fact that trade wars with China have 1) NOT brought American manufacturing back and 2) the tariff costs have been borne by the American consumer.

It's disturbing because they're not dumb, or ignorant of policies, or (AFAICT) rabid ideologues, but they live in a totally fictional reality.
posted by soundguy99 at 3:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

What are the odds of Trump winning all remaining states - Nevada, Arizona, Penn, NC, Georgia, and Alaska?
posted by doctornemo at 3:16 PM on November 4, 2020

"I wager 30 quatloons on the older gent w/the avaiator specs."
posted by mosk at 3:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Biden should appoint a fire-breathing anti-corruption Attorney General who should promise justice on a scale that exceeds Watergate, and mention at every opportunity that Nixon's former Attorney General John Mitchell did time in prison.

Drain the swamp?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

doctornemo:

Pretty damned slim. 100% he'll win Alaska, and probably 85% he'll win NC. The rest look Biden-friendly, even allowing for the weirdness of polling.
posted by argybarg at 3:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

What are the odds of Trump winning all remaining states - Nevada, Arizona, Penn, NC, Georgia, and Alaska?

Zero. Because Alaska.
posted by linux at 3:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

The one term (or less than one term) presidents Breaking Wind should be ranked with: Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Warren Harding.

Or his own hero, Zachary Taylor. Who died of "consuming copious amounts of raw fruit and iced milk" i.e. gluttony, appropriate addition to the other six deadlies Trump got going for him. I was truly hoping for this outcome from his bout with covid, but alas, the 'roids worked. It's a good thing we didn't have steroids in 1850.
posted by basalganglia at 3:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Well, if the theory of him having Frontotemporal Dementia is correct, he won't be in any shape to run by 2024.
posted by bink at 3:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

There are 40,000 ballots to cure in Fulton County alone.

This is not correct. That was a number given out by some rando in a now deleted tweet referring to DeKalb County, Georgia. DeKalb County Board of Registration and Elections is reporting that only *200* votes need to be cured.
posted by arcolz at 3:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

The older I get, the more I start to believe that trying to categorize humanity is akin to catching a electron mid-flight. In the last 24 hours, a friend sent me a picture of Rudy posturing in New Jersey about the Pennsylvania results and bemoaning the fact that his brother is right behind The Nation's Mayor cheering him on, a Lutheran pastor from Ohio that I met through a Vampire: the Masquerade LARP posted a Facebook video quoting scripture and offering a prayer for all those suffering from election anxiety, my college-educated cousin who moved to New Orleans because she likes to party (but drink, Lord Jesus no!) vote proudly for Trump because he is the cure for the nation's ills, and watched my government-hating friend who just retired from the CDC vote a straight Democrat ticket for the first time in his life because of Trump's pandemic response.

I never trusted the idea of a landslide, even while I fervently prayed that it would happen. Biden was not my guy, even though Hilary was my gal. But I will accept even a partial victory if it means removing Trump from office. It may not heal our country, but it will stop some of the bleeding. If I had an answer to what ails my country, I would scream it from the mountaintop. Instead, I will do what I can, help where I can, and rebuild what I can.
posted by gwydapllew at 3:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

There are 40,000 ballots to cure in Fulton County alone.

The actual number of ballots that need to be cured is much smaller. But an entire batch of ballots can be delayed if it contains one ballot that needs any manual handling. The figure of 40,000 included all the ballots that were in affected batches. (This number is already down to 20,000.)

[via Gil Freeman, a Democratic politician in Georgia]
posted by mbrubeck at 3:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

re:reddit:
I've been toying with the idea of flooding conservative discussion venues with GPT-generated comments about how aliens are behind it all. Just help push the conspiracy theories further off the deep end to (ahem) alienate more readers, and maaaaybe realign the remaining crazies to hate green people instead of brown people.
posted by kaibutsu at 3:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Well, if the theory of him having Frontotemporal Dementia is correct, he won't be in any shape to run by 2024.

That goes doubly if he was on a cocktail of anti-Covid drugs and blitzkrieg-grade amphetamines to get him through the campaign.
posted by acb at 3:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

I've been toying with the idea of flooding conservative discussion venues with GPT-generated comments about how aliens are behind it all.

And thus was born QAnon 2.
posted by wordless reply at 3:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

I've been toying with the idea of flooding conservative discussion venues with GPT-generated comments about how aliens are behind it all.

I'm pretty sure this is how you get QAnon.
posted by muddgirl at 3:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

306-232 will be the final EV for Biden.

(TTCS)
posted by Ahmad Khani at 3:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Jinx.
posted by muddgirl at 3:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Careful. Since GPT-3 was trained in part on Reddit comments, it produces unprompted racist content of its very own.
posted by mbrubeck at 3:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I'm pretty sure this is how you get QAnon.

It was at least how we got Bronies and Flat Earth.
posted by argybarg at 3:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Metafilter: Bronies and Flat Earth.
posted by lalochezia at 3:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

That's probably quite right. If you throw noise into a memetic ecosystem of paranoia and spite, it'll either fizzle or end up incorporated into existing hatreds, in the way that David Icke's shape-shifting lizard people got incorporated into Protocols-style antisemitic narrative. Get a GAN to generate random Illuminatus!-on-even-more-drugs verbiage, and there's a nonzero risk that some fragment of that will become a runaway memetic contagion that fuels genocides.
posted by acb at 3:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

One of the things I really want to see are Dems actively pursuing local offices. There were only two contested positions on my Red Wisconsin County ballot and all the other races were Republicans running unopposed.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

It looks like in most of the current toss-up states, Biden is favored to win. A full accounting looks like it will happen by Friday, but Biden may be able to reach 270 by tonight.
posted by chaz at 3:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

From way, way upthread:

I'm also surprised that people seem to like both pot and fascism. Don't fascists usually want to take away your pot?

I think a lot of people are clinging on to left/right stereotypes from the 20th century. Sure, elderly right-wing folks are anti-pot, but everyone else grew up in a country where its use was widespread. The only under-30 right-wing voters who are going to be strongly anti-pot are likely to be Mormons. I feel like people surprised by Republican voters being pro-pot would also be surprised by Republican voters liking hip-hop.
posted by Bugbread at 3:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Fox's decision desk, like their polling arm, is staffed with reality-based stats people.

Watched a bit of Fox, the technical commentators basically gave the same message as CNN or MSNBC and they pointed a window to their hard news stats guy who was clear and the same as any reputable network. Hit next fast when Tucker buffoon came on.

Quite amusing that Biden had the biggest lead there. I think they knew and wanted to buffer their viewers.
posted by sammyo at 3:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Obama once shook Raul Castro's hand.

There was a third Castro brother, Ramon. My brother got to know him well on a business trip to Cuba and even stayed at his house. So, I could never vote for my brother for President.
posted by neuron at 3:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

On mail ballots, 8,000 ballots were not processed on time to be counted. That's a "successful Election Day ballot processing rate of 93.3 percent" according to Nate Silver.

Presumably that omits any envelopes that were lost before being scanned.
posted by joeyh at 3:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

An interesting thread on the oddity and history that is Nebraska's split EV system.
posted by msbutah at 3:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

IMPORTANT

I'm pretty sure it's quatloos, not quatloons.
posted by wittgenstein at 3:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

Since GPT-3 was trained in part on Reddit comments, it produces unprompted racist content of its very own.

An idle thought: BERT, GPT-2, and other large-scale pre-trained language models may be with us in the research world for a while longer. They were all trained between 2016 and 2020. Trump is going to feature in our model’s parameters until they are retrained or replaced.

Perhaps we need to regard existing machine-learning models from the post-2016 era as contaminated, and the act of denazification as incomplete until they have been put to the torch?
posted by acb at 3:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

UbuRoivas's So. Georgia scoop is also at the BBC: The world's biggest iceberg, known as A68a, is bearing down on the British Overseas Territory of South Georgia. The Antarctic ice giant is a similar size to the South Atlantic island, and there's a strong possibility the berg could now ground and anchor itself offshore of the wildlife haven. If that happens, it poses a grave threat to local penguins and seals. This island has a small, non-permanent human population (32 in the summer / 16 in the winter).

The Washington Post estimates 87% of votes cast have been counted in Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes at stake). Biden's at 47.2% (2,885,334) and Trump's at 51.5% (3,151,010).
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

>Weird that Fox are the ones who have called the most states for Biden

Note that Fox and the AP started using the AP Votecast instead of traditional exit polls beginning in 2018, so it should not be unexpected that those two make earlier/different calls than the rest of the networks (ABC, NBC, CBS and CNN), which have a jointly funded exit poll. So far, comparing all the calls, that seems to be what's happening.
posted by yuwtze at 3:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Stacey Abrams, pinned tweet:
Here's where we are:

1. Local elections officials are taking the time necessary to make sure every eligible vote is counted.
2. Trump is losing and trying to crown himself the winner.
3. Voters choose the future. We fought for fairer elections and it’s working.
4. We expected all of this.
5. Now comes the hard part: Wait and don’t panic.
6. We can see the path to victory running from north to south.

We’ve got this, y’all! #Election2020
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [49 favorites]

Downfall
posted by joeyh at 3:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [42 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(
posted by geoff. at 3:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

https://imgur.com/gallery/Nr0tBCB

(mental FREE PARKING post)
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

So, I could never vote for my brother for President.

I know you're making a joke, but that is literally enough for the demographic that rules Miami politics.
posted by sideshow at 3:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Could you put a little context with Downfall? Not inclined to click that.
posted by Glinn at 3:44 PM on November 4, 2020

Alison, is your dad also angry with Pope Francis for shaking hands w/ Raul Castro?

There is a reason that the ur-book about a stubborn man, The Old Man and The Sea is set in Cuba. Holding grudges, score keeping in relationships, never-ever forgetting: these are all traits that I see in my own family. It doesn’t matter if Pope Francis cures cancer, they are still angry about that handshake.
posted by Alison at 3:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

NPR was just reporting on the simple TIME it takes for poll workers to count absentee ballots, with phrases like "the ABCD Precinct only has a capacity to count xxx # of ballots".
This is just sloppy reporting, by not including any kind of Rate in the number for 'capacity'. But it raised another logistics/ metrics question about voter suppression.

With all these long lines of voters, and limiting the # voting locations for targeted populations, has there been an analysis of the capacity to process votes in a given location?
as in "#minutes per voter per voting machine". The raw #s should be public record: # voters, # machines, # open voting hours. Should be an easy call.....
posted by TDIpod at 3:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

Maybe he can talk Uncle Vlad into giving him a nice dacha on the Black Sea coast?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 3:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

International observer report from OSCE:

Highly competitive elections in US tarnished by legal uncertainty and unprecedented attempts to undermine public trust.

posted by MattWPBS at 3:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

I'm pretty sure it's quatloos, not quatloons.

Upon reflection, I'm pretty sure you're right. Thanks, lousy 57 year old brain!
posted by mosk at 3:48 PM on November 4, 2020

I find the 538 live feed to be the best way to track this stuff, but their detached, somewhat jovial tone can get a little eerie.

This. Especially since, at least on their podcast, they constantly smuggle in their own substantive opinions and political preferences while pretending to "data-driven" disinterestedness.
posted by Beardman at 3:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Downfall: "If I've already infected you with COVID, step outside." Heh!
posted by doctornemo at 3:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

So are we going to be saved by Nevada or Phildelphia?
posted by fraxil at 3:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

MattWPBS: "International observer report from OSCE:
Highly competitive elections in US tarnished by legal uncertainty and unprecedented attempts to undermine public trust.
this bit is actually rather lovely:

“The enormous effort made by election workers, supported by many engaged citizens, ensured that voters could cast their votes despite legal and technical challenges and deliberate attempts by the incumbent president to weaken confidence in the election process,” said Urszula Gacek, Head of ODIHR’s election observation mission. “But this election is not over, and we remain here in DC and in key states around the country until it is. It is vital that every properly cast ballot is properly counted.”
posted by chavenet at 3:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

So are we going to be saved by Nevada or Phildelphia?

As Magic 8-Ball would say, "Signs point to yes" (and also Atlanta).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 3:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Downfall is a Hitler-at-the-End clip with the English subtitles changed to make whatever joke the creator is aiming for.

“We built a diverse coalition of white people in militias and white people NOT in militias!”
posted by hototogisu at 3:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [23 favorites]

CNN just now:

NEW: Though #Pennsylvania has made “excellent progress” in counting ballots, Secy of State Kathy Boockvar estimates it will be “a matter of days before the overwhelming majority of ballots are counted.” She also says “hundreds of thousands” of ballots would be counted tonight

posted by cashman at 3:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Could you put a little context with Downfall? Not inclined to click that.

It's a Trump 2020 Election version of the popular German language film parody that was all the rage about 10 years ago where people change the subtitles to a scene where Hitler meltdowns when he realizes he in totally F'd in the B during the last days of WWII.
posted by sideshow at 3:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Oh man, I needed that Downfall clip this afternoon.
posted by sbrollins at 3:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

JUST IN: Instead of delaying releasing results until tomorrow, Nevada officials will release more results later today due to the high interest in how Nevada voted.

Update:

"So after fits and starts, motivated by a desire to give the ravenous masses what they want (NUMBERS), the SOS and urban registrars have decided to be better safe than sorry. So wait for 9 AM on the best coast for the NV numbers. Definitely, maybe."

Also confirmed by 8 News Now, that same source:

"We're now hearing it's unlikely we will get any new election results in Nevada until Thursday morning. This is both for Clark and Washoe counties. "

posted by cashman at 3:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

We’ve got this, y’all!

Love Stacey Abrams, but it's probably time to retire this particular catchphrase. Just reading it gives me a case of hives.
posted by Atom Eyes at 3:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

So if Biden gets Nevada that's 270 and it's over is that right? he doesn't need anything else?
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Thank you Iris Gambol, I am glad to get the Stacey Abrams tweet because when she came on the PBS election coverage last night I didn't hear anything she said because the whole time I could see her I was yelling between glugs of pinot noir, "I love you, Stacey Abraaaaaaams, I love your hair and your bookshelves and that nubbly white vase and all your books and your eye makeup and your earrings and your neckline and especially whatever you're saying right now and your smile and the beautiful low lighting in your room and your lipcolor and all the books you wrote, I love you, I love you, I love you, IloveyouIloveyou, Stacey Abraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaams!" I do love Stacey Abrams, and there is nothing like a huge terrifying load of stress plus a bottomless fishbowl full of boxed pinot noir to let me know just how much.

Unrelated please do not miss excellent song linked above.
posted by Don Pepino at 3:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

Does the US have any other big houses where they cover your room and board, and provide security?
posted by biffa at 3:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [70 favorites]

Well, don't past presidents always have security?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:00 PM on November 4, 2020

He is going to live at Mar a Lago unless Hurricane Eta obliges me by blowing it into the Atlantic.
posted by Don Pepino at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

Yeah, but he'd also want unscalable walls.
posted by LionIndex at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Well, don't past presidents always have security?

I thought the constitution said it was only if you weren't a dick to the Secret Service.
posted by Lord_Pall at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

King of Trumplandia won't need security in Moscow.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Even give you a new job!
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Alicia Parlapiano, in Washington 1m ago NYT

After suggesting that they may release additional results on Wednesday, state officials in Nevada reverted to their original plan of updating results Thursday at noon Eastern.

Jesus, you're killing us Nevada.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Where DO we house traitors anyway
posted by FritoKAL at 4:02 PM on November 4, 2020

Nevada is not used to being important. They don't know how to handle it!
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

Speaking as a New Yorker who's had a front-row view to his fuckery since 1988, I'm sure that it isn't possible for me to give any less of a shit.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [28 favorites]

So if Biden gets Nevada that's 270 and it's over is that right? he doesn't need anything else?

Nevada makes 264. Nevada plus any other state and it's over.
posted by Jeanne at 4:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I literally was just wondering, does a former president still get a secret service security detail if he's currently in prison?
posted by Goblin Barbarian at 4:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Well, don't past presidents always have security?

Only for ten years these days, but with his objectively incredibly unhealthy lifestyle I don't think he's going to make full use of it to be honest.
posted by sideshow at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Full Frontal
@FullFrontalSamB
·
21m
Out of all states, you’d think Nevada would be faster at counting
posted by bluesky43 at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [77 favorites]

From The Cook Political Report: 2020 National Popular Vote Tracker
posted by MonkeyToes at 4:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

So if Biden gets Nevada that's 270 and it's over is that right? he doesn't need anything else?

Nevada + WI + AZ + Michigan = ballgame.

Not all news outlets have called WI/AZ/MI, but they seem pretty solid.
posted by craven_morhead at 4:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Jesus, you're killing us Nevada.

Playin with my ballots is like playing with my emotions, Smokey!
posted by cashman at 4:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Only for ten years these days, but with his objectively incredibly unhealthy lifestyle I don't think he's going to make full use of it to be honest.

Obama restored lifetime protection for past Presidents.
posted by NoxAeternum at 4:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Typical Nevada counting mechanics
posted by selfnoise at 4:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Chris Hayes says that Biden is likely to end up with a larger vote share than any challenger since Roosevelt.

This sounds like a MANDATE to me!

@michelleinbklyn
If Biden ends up winning with 52 percent of the popular vote, he'll have a historic mandate. Ronald Reagan's total in 1980 was 50.7. But our sclerotic minoritarian institutions will likely make it impossible for him to govern. Our system is deeply broken.

Joe Biden should ABSOLUTELY govern as if he has a mandate, even if we have an obstructionist Senate. ESPECIALLY if we have an obstructionist Senate. The Lincoln people are right - if we win, we have fucking WON. We need to act like it.
posted by triggerfinger at 4:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [79 favorites]

Downfall.

Man, 75 years later and Steiner still can't get it right.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

So why does Politico say 264 to 214, while NYT says 253 to 214? I wish there was more consistency...
posted by sucre at 4:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

The Ryugyong Hotel could be fitted with TRUMP spelled out in giant gold letters.
posted by gimonca at 4:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

I think it's sad for the media to continue to fuel Bannon's obvious addiction to attention by quoting him whenever he says something outrageous. I mean, it's not like he's the President or something.
posted by Slothrup at 4:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

So why does Politico say 264 to 214, while NYT says 253 to 214? I wish there was more consistency...

This Who Called What State tracker shows what nine different news organizations are currently saying. Right now a couple of organizations have called Arizona for Biden, while the rest are still saying it's undecided.

If Arizona is correct, Biden only needs to win one of the outstanding states (Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and also North Carolina although that one is probably in the red column). Trump needs all four.
posted by theodolite at 4:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

So why does Politico say 264 to 214, while NYT says 253 to 214? I wish there was more consistency...

Arizona. 11 EVs. Some have called it. Some have not.
posted by mcstayinskool at 4:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

So why does Politico say 264 to 214, while NYT says 253 to 214? I wish there was more consistency...

Politico has called Arizona (11 electoral votes) for Biden, whereas the NYT (and most other news outlets) has not done so yet.
posted by andrewesque at 4:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

The Ryugyong Hotel could be fitted with TRUMP spelled out in giant gold letters.

Ah, so that's where they sent the letters that were taken off the one in Toronto a few years back.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Also, I just realized that it's the fourth of November, which means that if Biden passes 270 tomorrow, it will be like our own public day of thanksgiving.

Remember, remember, the fifth of November!
posted by triggerfinger at 4:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

Speaking as a New Yorker who's had a front-row view to his fuckery since 1988, I'm sure that it isn't possible for me to give any less of a shit.

Hey, I got to pee in the Trump Tower restrooms last December. It was surreal. The brass and fuckery are everywhere! He can hole up amid the brass and 1980's excellent decor!
posted by Benway at 4:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

So why does Politico say 264 to 214, while NYT says 253 to 214

Politico is relying on the AP/Fox numbers which have already called Arizona for Biden. NYT is evidently more cautious but the AP/Fox call is probably right.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 4:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I'm hoping he lives in a prison cell, but that ain't happening in a billion years. Probably just Mar-A-Lago.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

The brass and fuckery are everywhere! He can hole up amid the brass and 1980's excellent decor!

The Russians love that stuff.
posted by pipeski at 4:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., a Trump ally who usually avoids criticizing the president in public, told reporters Wednesday that "claiming you've won the election is different from finishing the counting."

Perhaps the first of the rats preparing to depart the sinking ship?

Mitch has been signaling his decoupling from the Trump Train for a little bit, now. Honestly with his court and (probably) his Senate majority up against Joe “Bold Moves” Biden, McConnell is likely to be in his (obstructionist) element.
posted by atoxyl at 4:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Biden won’t have the cooperation of the Senate but he will have Pelosi and the House, not to mention control of the executive. First thing I’d recommend is instructing all federal inspectors general to audit their books and determine how many millions Trump grifted from the American people in violation of the emoluments clause. Then, I’d recommend a civil lawsuit to claw back every fucking penny.
posted by Big Al 8000 at 4:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [42 favorites]

Reading that Deutsche Bank article actually hurt my face from the grinch-like smile it produced.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Metafilter: totally F'd in the B
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 4:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Also, I just realized that it's the fourth of November, which means that if Biden passes 270 tomorrow, it will be like our own public day of thanksgiving.

Speaking as an Englishman who should get to bed, you realise this means that you have to hang, draw and quarter the conspirators, before ritually burning them in effigy each year?
posted by MattWPBS at 4:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

I'm also surprised that people seem to like both pot and fascism. Don't fascists usually want to take away your pot?

From what I've seen over the last couple decades, America's corporate-friendly fascism would involve selling you pot, first, before helping you on your way to a private prison.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Hoping the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania comes through blue. If not, it's Pennsyltucky, and I'll pay moving expenses for my cousins still there.
posted by datawrangler at 4:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Isn't Deutsche Bank infamous for being a cowboy lender, which finances people, companies and projects that other investment banks wouldn't touch with a bargepole?

It really says something, not only that Trump is with DB but also that they want to cut him loose.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I'd expect Trump to run for 2024, starting in 2021, same as he immediately set up the 2020 campaign after he was first elected, because it provides huge grifting opportunities. He'll be loving the rallies and fleecing the rubes and misappropriating campaign funds. Assuming he doesn't get scared enough of jail time to flee the country, of course.
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 4:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Will Melanie still decorate the White House this Christmas?
posted by geoff. at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Nah, he's gonna shovel one of his mealy mouthed kids at us.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

The brass and 80's decor will soon be the property of Deutsche Bank. Or one of his lenders. Trump Tower is collateral. Soon, he'll be useless to everyone and the wolves will come calling.

Don't count on it. He's going to be getting wingnut welfare the likes of which we've never seen before once Fox News or OANN brings him on to host his own show. And you know he'd be happy to tweet gushing praise for whichever dictator paid him.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I'm also surprised that people seem to like both pot and fascism

Let me introduce you to Libertarians, aka "Republicans who like weed".
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 4:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [45 favorites]

None of his kids have the "charisma" of their father. The only one who might have a chance is Melania, and I doubt a) she wants to and b) Donny would let her.
posted by SansPoint at 4:29 PM on November 4, 2020

Sincere question here: is there any one particular more trustworthy news source for updates? I was told PBS but I'll take any recommendations at this point.

By the way, nobody where I work slept especially well last night; they all dragged themselves in a couple of hours late. A more wretched feeling hasn't been had since 2016, the day after the Hellmouth opened.
posted by datawrangler at 4:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Georgia has flipped to Biden on Predictit's map.
posted by waitingtoderail at 4:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

Biden now up by 2 points in Michigan. There's still some extraneous absentee vote in Kalamazoo and Genesee that will pad his margins further. Nate Cohn. NYT.
posted by bluesky43 at 4:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Via NYT: the Biden campaign has put up a Biden-Harris transition team site at buildbackbetter.com.

"The American people will determine who will serve as the next President of the United States. Votes are still being counted in several states around the country. The crises facing the country are severe — from a pandemic to an economic recession, climate change to racial injustice — and the transition team will continue preparing at full speed so that the Biden-Harris Administration can hit the ground running on Day One." (that's it)
posted by reductiondesign at 4:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

I can see Republicans lining up behind Jr. entirely because of how much it would own the libs.
posted by J.K. Seazer at 4:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

How the Associated Press calls races FAQ

AP shows 50% reporting for Alaska: Biden 32.4%, Trump 63.6%, Jorgensen 2.6%

Sen. Elizabeth Warren tweet, 10 hours ago:
Waiting in line for hours.
Facing voter intimidation.
Figuring out how to vote safely.

Americans made their voices heard in record-shattering numbers despite a coordinated effort from Trump and the Republican party to prevent just that.

We owe it to them to #CountEveryVote.

Warren tweet, 40 minutes ago:

Donald Trump’s attempts to stop votes from being counted are the actions of a desperate man trying to cling to power just a little longer.
It's undemocratic. It's pathetic.
And it won't work.
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

None of his kids have the "charisma" of their father. The only one who might have a chance is Melania, and I doubt a) she wants to and b) Donny would let her.

Melania is ineligible for the Presidency since she wasn't born in the US
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

The county that contains Grand Rapids, Michigan, Kent County, has gone for Biden. Also known as DeVos country ladies and gents
posted by JoeXIII007 at 4:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [21 favorites]

The only one who might have a chance is Melania, and I doubt a) she wants to and b) Donny would let her.

Especially once she divorces him the second she doesn't have to keep up the appearances of their sham marriage.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

@TheDailyShow
BREAKING: Trump campaign files 71,185,821 lawsuits against every person who voted for Joe Biden
7:27 PM · Nov 4, 2020
posted by bluesky43 at 4:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [35 favorites]

I don't think there's another act left for Donald J. Trump. He's going to collapse like a hideous orange balloon and take his companies and family with him. (With the possible exception of more peripheral members like Tiffany and Baron.) The Republicans will continue to be both insane and numerous, and in four or eight years they'll have a new dark prince to latch onto, but they'll forget all about Trump.
posted by Kevin Street at 4:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

I meant Ivanka, not Melania.
posted by SansPoint at 4:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Speaking as an Englishman who should get to bed, you realise this means that you have to hang, draw and quarter the conspirators, before ritually burning them in effigy each year?

...I don't understand, are you trying to talk us OUT of this?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

I've been keeping a spreadsheet pulling data from https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/ and according to my calculations, Biden needs to take about 75% of Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots to win here. He's currently steady at a bit over 77%, and about 75% of the mail-in ballots have been recorded, assuming the total number of mail-in ballots cast listed on the dashboard is correct. But this doesn't account for which counties we're talking about, and that could matter.
posted by needs more cowbell at 4:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Unfortunately, with a guy like Trump it is really easy to get his wife and daughter confused, ugh.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

My personal theory is that Trump ends up selling what he knows.

He doesn't know anything. He never paid attention in briefings, and he's basically incapable of retaining information in any form that would be useful intelligence. His only use as a source has been the bugs various actors have had on him, and in his offices. Once he's out, he's got no worth in that regard. Unless you really want to hear the word "tremendous" in a stupid voice over and over, I guess.
posted by mrgoat at 4:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

I'm also surprised that people seem to like both pot and fascism. Don't fascists usually want to take away your pot?

I would think that the surprising numbers of Latino Trump voters would show that not the entire electorate of those who would be adversely affected by Republican policies believes Trump to be a fascist. And as I like to say, oppression can be intersectional, just as the oppressed are. The idea that 21st century fascism would be identical to Nazi Germany or similar regimes in the '30s was always a straw man dystopian- as we're seeing with Trump's appeals to Latino communities, in a multicultural nation of immigrants like America, right-wing figures will have to find unique divisive ways to win the support of the unlikeliest of followers.

I think blaming "machismo" votes sounds dangerously close to cultural caricaturing, but there is something to be said that despite liberals and the left's attempts at creating rainbow coalitions of solidarity of the oppressed, minorities and other groups who could be harmed by Republican policies (like the aforementioned pot smokers) could still find their way to supporting Trump, despite all he has said and done. Just saying Trump is bad is not enough.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Speaking as an Englishman who should get to bed, you realise this means that you have to hang, draw and quarter the conspirators, before ritually burning them in effigy each year?

...I don't understand, are you trying to talk us OUT of this?

don't threaten me with a good time!
posted by lalochezia at 4:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Georgia has flipped to Biden on Predictit's map.

Georgia is moving fast on PredictIt. I bought in a couple of hours ago at 47¢ and I’m already regretting not selling some of my blue WI to buy in more. Going at 62¢ now.
posted by mr_roboto at 4:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

My personal theory is that Trump ends up selling what he knows.

He doesn't know anything. He never paid attention in briefings, and he's basically incapable of retaining information in any form that would be useful intelligence. His only use as a source has been the bugs various actors have had on him, and in his offices. Once he's out, he's got no worth in that regard. Unless you really want to hear the word "tremendous" in a stupid voice over and over, I guess.

Person, woman, man, camera, TV
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

Sen. Warren is a champ. I'm disappointed that she didn't fare better in the primaries, but her logistical and financial help for other down-ticket races since then has been just as important, and we're incredibly lucky that she's here to stand up with voters to protect and defend our democracy.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 4:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [67 favorites]

None of his kids have the "charisma" of their father.

Yeah, the Trump horseshit only works when it comes from Don himself. It's hard to see while gazing at his vast terribleness, but Trump is charismatic in a way that absolutely every one of this kids is not.
posted by sideshow at 4:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Unfortunately, with a guy like Trump it is really easy to get his wife and daughter confused, ugh.

Right-wing radio has a thing now where they point out that the second-oldest person in Trump’s inner circle isn’t his wife but instead is Kimberly Guilfoyle, his son’s girlfriend. They tend to frame it as ‘well, that guy sure likes winning,’ which... isn’t not gross.
posted by box at 4:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Guantanamo bay would be a secure festering location for his 'retirement'....
posted by mightshould at 4:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

That’s great news about Kent County in Michigan. My grandmother, then 86, volunteered with the Obama campaign in Kent County in 2008. She died before Trump was elected, and I’ve often thought I was glad she was gone so she didn’t have to see this. I’m so pleased her county went for Biden.
posted by coppermoss at 4:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

with a guy like Trump it is really easy to get his wife and daughter confused, ugh.

Don't beat yourself up about that.

Even Trump himself seems to have the same kind of confusion.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

NYT on Nevada: "A news media briefing by the Clark County registrar Joe Gloria Wednesday afternoon was briefly interrupted by a man who jumped in front of cameras and repeatedly yelled: 'The Biden crime family is stealing this election! The media is covering it up!'"
posted by reductiondesign at 4:49 PM on November 4, 2020

Remember What They Did: Do not allow the enablers of the Trump administration to rejoin polite society, ever.

Because the visible phase of the nightmare is not the whole thing. The past four years represent both a beginning of fallout to come, and a continuation of long-standing Republican policies and goals that are being wielded more brazenly than before. The idea that the United States government should protect the rich at the expense of everyone else, use police power to crush popular dissent, suppress the vote, steal elections, embrace racism, and ignore the human rights abuses of foreign dictators in exchange for business deals is all in keeping with the well established principles of the Republican Party (and many of its Democratic friends). Trump’s failures as a politician are personal ones. His narcissism and bizarre personality disorders ensured that he said the quiet part out loud in every case. The Republican establishment dislikes this trait of his not because they disagree with the substance of his actions, but because his crudeness can cause momentarily awkward public relations. They have long preferred their class war concealed by tastefully placed flags and their racism swaddled in Martin Luther King Jr. quotations. But Trump just offered the raw substance without the faux-gentility. And they were all happy to take it.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [36 favorites]

Even Trump himself seems to have the same kind of confusion.

He does seem to fit everything into the same five categories: person, woman, man, camera, TV.
posted by mrgoat at 4:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

NYT on Nevada: "A news media briefing by the Clark County registrar Joe Gloria Wednesday afternoon was briefly interrupted by a man who jumped in front of cameras and repeatedly yelled: 'The Biden crime family is stealing this election! The media is covering it up!'"

There's a video. It's funny. The screaming dude is a living Chris Farley character.
posted by Liquidwolf at 4:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I hereby pledge my immortal soul if given the ability to gently whisper into Don's ear every night right before he goes to sleep...for the rest of his life, "Obama won twice."
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 4:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [54 favorites]

coppermoss: had a grandmother, paternal, up in neighboring Newaygo then too. She didn't volunteer, but did pass before Trump, and I do often think the same thing for her and my maternal grandmother too. It's really hard to imagine how'd they process it
posted by JoeXIII007 at 4:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

He does seem to fit everything into the same five categories: person, woman, man, camera, TV.

Explains why he found questions in that "point to the picture of the elephant" dementia test so challenging.
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:53 PM on November 4, 2020

There's a video. It's funny. The screaming dude is a living a Chris Farley character.

Where were we?
posted by basalganglia at 4:55 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

Guantanamo bay would be a secure festering location for his 'retirement'...

The suggestion I heard was that after Jan 20 he'd be tweeting from a dacha in Sochi.
posted by Rash at 4:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I really hope that I am wrong but I am growing increasingly concern that this will end up in a 269-269 tie. (EDIT THIS IS WRONG; DISREGARD)

If it goes to a tie, the House votes, but it's based on state-wide delegations, with each state having one vote in that case, there are 26 states that have more GOP reps than DEM reps in their state; and this favors Trump. (from the UVA Center on Politics - January 2020.
posted by fizzix at 4:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Just watched 5 minutes of Fox News so you don't have to:

- Eric Trump did some kind of throat-singing call to the gods, but with his nose instead
- One of the anchors got new batteries, but still looked quite concerned
- A correspondent described her attempts to flick a "very tight booger" at ballot counters
- One of Bush's lawyers from 2000 seemed confused as to what year it was
- There was some discussion in German about crushing the hearing aid market
- A black guest talked about how pollsters need to do better outreach and got interrupted by a pollster
posted by swift at 4:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Speaking as an Englishman who should get to bed, you realise this means that you have to hang, draw and quarter the conspirators, before ritually burning them in effigy each year?

...I don't understand, are you trying to talk us OUT of this?

don't threaten me with a good time!

Well, you know, you lot do have more of a problem with wildfires than we do.
posted by MattWPBS at 4:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

fizzix: The math based on remaining, uncalled states doesn't work out for a tie.
posted by SansPoint at 4:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

The BBQ and guns guy interrupting is amusing, but a little concerning when that unhinged type is your next door neighbor.

I'm still glad NV is staying blue. We've been doing pretty well lately.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 4:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

I really hope that I am wrong but I am growing increasingly concern that this will end up in a 269-269 tie.

It can't, because Biden has already won one of the Nebraska EVs. You have all five going to Trump.
posted by theodolite at 4:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

+1 to SansPoint. I don't understand what math takes you to 269. It's F-ING pathetic that it might be 270-268, but 269-269 isn't there.
posted by mcstayinskool at 4:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

It's technically possible if Biden wins GA but nothing else out of the uncalled states (counting AZ as uncalled), but that doesn't seem very likely.
posted by nat at 5:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Dacha? You realize of course that losing the presidency, Trump is worthless to the Russians. Except of course the money he owes them. Not a good position to be in, I would suppose.
posted by njohnson23 at 5:01 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Oh, or I suppose faithless electors. But again, not likely here.
posted by nat at 5:01 PM on November 4, 2020

fizzix -- Biden is up 264-214. No remaining states have 5 votes, so I think we are safe from that nightmare scenario.

(But in general, yeah, it's dumb to decide a race between two people with an even number of votes. This is like that part in the Jeeves & Wooster series where the Drones Club is trying to figure out how to break the streak of ties for their darts tournament, currently decided as "Best of Four." Bertie suggests, "Best of six? Best of eight?" Jeeves sighs.)
posted by basalganglia at 5:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

i mean tttcs to all of this, but:

I hereby pledge my immortal soul if given the ability to gently whisper into Don's ear every night right before he goes to sleep...for the rest of his life, "Obama won twice."

i was thinking of what i could say to trump if i could say one thing to trump, if i could get him to read one tweet. and i think what i would say is “hitler would call you a loser.”
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 5:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I'm disappointed that the tie-breaker scenario isn't some variant of Thunderdome.
posted by skycrashesdown at 5:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

like lol you think hitler would even give you the time of day, donnie? a loser like you?
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 5:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

"your father is laughing at you"
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

i was thinking of what i could say to trump if i could say one thing to trump, if i could get him to read one tweet

"Your father would call you a loser".
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

> Well, don't past presidents always have security?
>> Only for ten years these days, but with his objectively incredibly unhealthy lifestyle I don't think he's going to make full use of it to be honest.

As long as the Grifter can charge $$$ to the Biden (or any subsequent) administration for Secret Service room, board, and any other Trump hospitality services, he’ll make full use of post-presidential security. More bragging rights to impress marks during future business deals, dontcha know?
posted by cenoxo at 5:05 PM on November 4, 2020

I don't believe for a second anything I could say to Donald Trump would get through to him in any way.
posted by argybarg at 5:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Yeah, Trump will say that he's not a loser because the other side cheated. And it's not a hypothetical fantasy scenario, he will literally say this, and probably very soon.
posted by swift at 5:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

a Biden-Harris transition team

You know, this is one real advantage that Biden brings: he has been the Vice-President, and he knows, in detail, how the executive branch works. Because can you imagine what kind of transition operation the Trump people, provided that they are compelled to acknowledge an election loss, would mount? Probably worse than useless.
posted by thelonius at 5:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [33 favorites]

There are still at least 100,000 votes uncounted in Kern County California, these votes mean a lot to TJ Cox Dem rep, even Kim Mangione running against Kevin McCarthy, as the mail in ballots skew Dem. Nothing is settled here. The Cow Boy Valadao has to ride it out.
posted by Oyéah at 5:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

30 days has september, april, june and ~~november~~

I demand a recount.
posted by adept256 at 5:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Trump will say that he's not a loser because the other side cheated

he's already saying it.

I fear the end result is going to be Trump continuing to hold rallies and use the media to push his white supremacist/populist views, and the GOP in the House & Senate are still going to be afraid of his supporters. Fox will have him on constantly because he's good for ratings, and Twitter is never going to shut down his account. There's a whole political/media ecosystem in place that will continue to amplify him and his sycophants.

Until he dies, has a stroke, or is imprisoned, he's going to be a stain on American political discourse, and he's just teaching plenty of other people to use the same kind of arguments.

I'm glad Biden is winning (TTTCS) but I'm really afraid that we are in for a continued bad time.
posted by suelac at 5:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Well, now that Trump got the Section 230 thing rolling, a Biden administration could very strongly encourage Twitter to rethink the enforcement of their standards. Be a shame if something were to ... happen ... to this company you've got here. A real shame.
posted by aramaic at 5:12 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

The age of Trump appears to be coming to an end.

The age of Trumpism is probably only beginning.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

Sorry, what is TTTCS? Urban Dictionary is coming up empty.
posted by Crane Shot at 5:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Not to be dark but his rallies have been super spreader events. We'll see in a couple weeks' time just how much damage he's done to his own base.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Where's Donald Trump going to live now :(

I'm waiting for the story in the Ayr Advertiser about a local hotelier losing his second home.
posted by offog at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I'm in the UK and too wired to sleep but news updates have taken on the air of exhausted galley slaves failing to maintain pace. Is anywhere likely to call in the next couple of hours?
posted by freya_lamb at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Sorry, what is TTTCS? Urban Dictionary is coming up empty.

Turn three times, curse, and spit, from The West Wing.
posted by teraflop at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

You are kind to believe that there will be a transition at all between administrations, given that the current administration barely knows what they're doing. They will spend their time stealing everything that they can and abusing what power they have left to find new jobs.
posted by meowzilla at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Sorry, what is TTTCS? Urban Dictionary is coming up empty.

Turn three times curse and spit: a thing for good luck the political megathreads pulled from The West Wing.
posted by suelac at 5:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

@NBCNews
"There are around 600,000 votes left to count in Arizona — 420,000 of those are in Maricopa Co.," Sec. of State Hobbs says of uncounted votes. "All of the same-day voting has been added to the results. What we're looking at now are mail-in ballots that are being tabulated now."
posted by bluesky43 at 5:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

According to fivethirtyeight :

"We’re taking a bit of a pause on the live blog until we get more results from Arizona and Georgia — expected around 9 p.m. ET and potentially — in Arizona, anyway — again at 12:30 a.m. ET."
posted by revmitcz at 5:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

TTTCS: "Turn, Turn, Turn, Curse, Spit
Often abbreviated tttcs, a nod to The West Wing's panacea for election night optimism."
posted by kirkaracha at 5:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Could probably do without the doomcasting, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
posted by Ahmad Khani at 5:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Yeah, it's either two of the most dangerous months of any U.S. presidency, or 50 of the most dangerous months of any U.S. presidency.
posted by argybarg at 5:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

TTTCS: turn three times, curse and spit so as not to tempt the wrath of the great whatever from high atop the thing.

a ritual appeasement from a popular fable of a bygone age
posted by 20 year lurk at 5:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Reading parts of this thread is bringing to mind these two important tweets from Bree Newsome Bass:
I appreciate everyone pushing back against constant effort to scapegoat everyone except white America who account for ~70% of total population. We won’t keep doing this. It’s truly an abusive dynamic that minorities are blamed for not overcoming the concerted racism of white ppl

When Biden wins, watch how fast the narrative switches from scapegoating the minority of Black & Latinx voters who went for Trump to praising America for redeeming itself—while ignoring how it was high turnout among Black & brown voters that made it possible
posted by TwoStride at 5:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [56 favorites]

The last presidential tradition IMPOTUS will break is leaving a handwritten note in the desk in the Oval Office.

Unless it's Sharpie on a Double Cheeseburger wrapper.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Assuming that Biden wins, I'm looking forward to the insider post-mortem from the Trump command centre from the start of voting to the end, when the election results are announced.
posted by monkeymike at 5:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

You know how sometimes weed makes you less anxious, and sometimes much much more anxious? Ohhhhhh shiiiiiit, tonight's a tight one.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

Possibility: Trump runs in 2024, either with the Republican Party or independently.

Could he resist the idea? How many people hoping to get in on the grift would whisper it in his ear? How many of his diehard supporters would rally to him?
posted by clawsoon at 5:21 PM on November 4, 2020

When Biden wins, watch how fast the narrative switches from scapegoating the minority of Black & Latinx voters who went for Trump to praising America for redeeming itself

Despite a temporary reprieve I am not certain America is redeemable, in the long run; America's original sin of racism is still most likely to be the rock on which the Republic founders.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

More on the Trump’s campaign’s effort to stop counting votes in Georgia:

The campaign is filing a lawsuit to alleges that “a Republican poll observer in Georgia witnessed 53 late absentee ballots illegally added to a stack of on-time absentee ballots in Chatham County.”

Let the baby have his bottle.

Chatham County can be adjusted to 66,932 Biden v 47,595 Trump.

Unless one single allegation regarding 53 votes is thought by him to, idunno, invalidate the entire state? I'm not sure why they think this would have any legal effect on the rest of the votes, even if true.

I'd love to know the details, though. Like, the ballots were received, were in the building, and were just put onto a specific desk in a way the GOP observer didn't like? Unless USPS delivers mail after hours, which I doubt.
posted by UbuRoivas at 5:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Where DO we house traitors anyway?

Traditionally? In a tree.
posted by sexyrobot at 5:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

All this wild mass speculation about which member of a certain horrible family will be anointed to run in 2024 is, uh, fun, and all, but haven't we run out of alternate universe trollfic plots yet?
posted by armeowda at 5:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Where DO we house traitors anyway?

Not in Arlington.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

He's going to call his faithful to a giant truck rally out in the middle of Kansas, where truck lights and tiki torches will guide Air Force 1 to a hard landing on an abandoned runway. The Melania, now impossibly pregnant, will walk out of a corn field wearing a Be Beast shirt...
posted by pracowity at 5:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

If Trump loses, as soon as the loss becomes indelible, you probably have to worry about his state of mind. I don't think he has any options that aren't basically some version of hell for him. Definitely never thought today I'd be wondering if they have a plan for making sure he's unarmed and not a threat to himself.

I don't think the Russia defection option really works because if you think it through, one of the big motives for this whole disaster was the last round of sanctions that started hitting oligarchs personally. Seems obvious that if Trump incites shit in the US from Russia, those previous sanctions will seem like a warmup and that's probably equally obvious to Russia. If he loses, he's twisting in the wind.
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

[...] you probably have to worry about his state of mind.

Raise your hand if you weren't already worried about that for the entire last four years or so.
posted by FishBike at 5:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

One wonders about how much damage he'll do between now and 1/20/21.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

Where are we at now for potential final results?

This is my understanding so far. please help correct me

NV - blue
AZ - blue
GA - blue (?)
PA - blue (seems reasonably certain if votes are actually counted)
NC - is there a chance for blue? or is red still more likely?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:32 PM on November 4, 2020

As long as the Grifter can charge $$$ to the Biden (or any subsequent) administration for Secret Service room, board, and any other Trump hospitality services, he’ll make full use of post-presidential security

I meant in the sense he won’t still be above ground for the full ten years, but in his (urine soaked, God willing) grave.
posted by sideshow at 5:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

If Trump loses, as soon as the loss becomes indelible, you probably have to worry about his state of mind

When that happens Pence is probably going to have to pull the trigger on the 25th (and maybe Trump will be made to resign in exchange for a pardon). The decompensation that's going to result is not going to be pretty.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 5:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Now that various high ranking republicans have secured their re-elections, will the fact that they don't need Trump anymore to keep their seats have any effect on the next few months?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Putting their feet into the starting blocks.
posted by Feisty at 5:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Can't wait til we get close to December 14th.
posted by Harry Caul at 5:38 PM on November 4, 2020

NYT: "The presidential vote grows tighter in Georgia as mail ballots are counted. Trump's lead has narrowed to 46,000 votes, or 1 percentage point." 95% reporting.
posted by reductiondesign at 5:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

reductiondesign:

That's crazy. 5% is about 250,000 votes, isn't it?
posted by argybarg at 5:41 PM on November 4, 2020

I wonder where they're going to build the Trump Library? If he's on a tight budget, he could pick one up at the Little Free Library shop for a reasonable price.
posted by pracowity at 5:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Defecting to Russia doesn't work because he owes an enormous amount of money to Russian oligarchs and mobsters, and the Secret Service won't be able to protect him there. He's probably going to have to go all in on handing out corrupt deals while he can still use the presidency to back them up, just to make up the money he owes.

He's either got to give, and get blanket pardons for a lot of people, and find some way around state prosecution, or make enough money to pay lawyers to keep his cases tied up in court until he dies. Most likely outcome is he never sees jail time, dies technically in debt, and leaves someone else holding the bag. Same as he's always done with his businesses.
posted by mrgoat at 5:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

NotTheRedBaron, I'd say:
NV - blue, we hope. Fox needle has had it at 73% likely for ages.
AZ - blue so far. Fox and AP are the only ones of these that have called it; 538 says that was premature though it's likely to come out that way. ("Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden, but I don’t think the state should have been called yet." - Nate Silver. Lots of accompanying explanation there, currently several posts down from the top.)
GA - blue (?). Too close to call. Check out the WaPo's prediction bars.
PA - blue (seems reasonably certain if votes are actually counted) Your 'reasonably certain' is my 'hope so think so hope so.' Again, WaPo.
NC - is there a chance for blue? or is red still more likely? Red is more likely. The despised NYT needle said 86% chance red when it stopped updating early this morning.
posted by daisyace at 5:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

One wonders about how much damage he'll do between now and 1/20/21.

Yes, I’m very concerned. Did anyone here read The Fifth Risk? The Obama admin had each department prepare, rightly, for the Trump admin to take over. Explaining ongoing projects, issues, you name it.

In many cases the Trump admin never showed up for the meetings. Or worse, came in late, clearly never read any of the materials and just “took charge.”

There is so much rebuilding to do, we cannot even fully comprehend it, because it’s impossible.
posted by glaucon at 5:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [48 favorites]

The trump library is just going to be a bunch of greasy blue-ray copies of bloodsport.
posted by piyushnz at 5:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I wonder where they're going to build the Trump Library? If he's on a tight budget, he could pick one up at the Little Free Library shop for a reasonable price.

In case you missed it in January: 'It makes sense': the trailer park that could be Trump's presidential library

As an archivist who studies climate change's impacts on libraries and archives I have some... concerns... about a Presidential Library being built on south Florida's coastal edges but hey, what would I know.
posted by mostly vowels at 5:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

The trump library is just going to be a bunch of greasy blue-ray copies of bloodsport.

And The Art of the Deal
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:48 PM on November 4, 2020

The trump library is just going to be a bunch of greasy blue-ray copies of bloodsport.

To be completely fair, it will include at least one or two Steven Seagal discs, at least one of which will be Above the Law.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I mean a., they will probably steal anything they can, look for the WH china and antiques to disappear, b., anyone Trump appointed needs the boot/probably prosecution and c., the White House needs an extremely thorough debugging before Biden moves in. On the upside, there's hopefully be lots of career govt people who will be happy to come back and fix things for a sane administration.
posted by emjaybee at 5:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

The trump library is just going to be a bunch of greasy blue-ray copies of bloodsport.

You have to sign an NDA before you enter the library and cannot discuss its contents or lack thereof with anyone.
posted by asra at 5:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Philadelphia, you murdered the hitchhiking robot. You set your own city on fire when you win sportsballs. You chose a strange orange creature as a hockey mascot. But... I will forgive you these things because (a) Very Nice art museum with Good Armor Section and also Nude Descending A Staircase (b) huge democratic turnout to balance the beautiful and rural center of my state that votes reliably republican.

(My tiny, tiny borough in Fulton County (85% or so for Trump this time) went for Biden, 5 to 4. I did say "tiny, tiny". I was not kidding.)
posted by which_chick at 5:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

The trump library is just going to be a bunch of greasy blue-ray copies of bloodsport.

I assumed it’d be a Hudson News at MIA or something equally forgettable.
posted by strange chain at 5:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Trump library will be all copies of Art Of The Deal, overpriced.
posted by Pastor of Muppets at 5:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Despite a temporary reprieve I am not certain America is redeemable, in the long run; America's original sin of racism is still most likely to be the rock on which the Republic founders.

I think about this far more than I’d like. It often occurs to me that countries have no guarantee of continued existence, either in their geographical totality or in their form of government. I don’t wish to doomsay, but the massive fault lines that were once again revealed in our society by the Age of Trump are going to have to lead to a reckoning.

If we are fortunate, it will be limited to sporadic outbursts of demonstration and protest every generation or two, to set the country back on track. The alternative is another actual civil war.

This time, we seem to have done good to steer our country away from the rocks. But those White Supremacists and authoritarian-enablers out there aren’t going away...
posted by darkstar at 5:57 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

In A Pattern Language Christopher Alexander says countries should be about 3–5 million people. I think that sounds about right. I really don't think 330 million people are governable in the long run short of totalitarianism.
posted by argybarg at 5:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

Jason Isbell on Twitter: Biden could still pull off the historical sweep of every state Steve Miller has been to in Keep On Rockin Me Baby
posted by neroli at 6:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [50 favorites]

In A Pattern Language Christopher Alexander says countries should be about 3–5 million people. I think that sounds about right. I really don't think 330 million people are governable in the long run short of totalitarianism.

What is the solution? For states or regions to become sovereign nations? How does that work? Within each state there is so much divisiveness. Unless people are forced to move according to their ideologies. That leads to violence. Look at the partition of India. I cannot see a peaceful way to "break up" the nation but don't know how we can get past this intense divide, either.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 6:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

CNN Fact check: Almost everything Trump has said after Election Day is wrong
posted by darkstar at 6:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

which_chick: Hey, don't blame Hitchbot on Philly. That fuckin' jabroni who trashed it for social media cred does NOT speak for Philly.
posted by SansPoint at 6:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I didn't say I had a workable plan for breaking up the country. I just think countries of 3–5 million have the right amount of contact between leadership and citizens, and countries of 330 million don't.
posted by argybarg at 6:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Couple comments removed. Stop quoting the fat joke, it's a fat joke even if it's about a shithead. Cut it out.
posted by cortex (staff) at 6:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [39 favorites]

okay we were supposed to get a release of updated info from some of the races at 9 pm tonight and it is now 9:09 and I demand AN UPDATE
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

I cannot see a peaceful way to "break up" the nation but don't know how we can get past this intense divide, either.

I think to that we need to look at past precedent of "How do you work a populace back from the brink?" i.e. post-Civil War Reconstruction (before the reforms were watered down and undone) and de-Nazification of Germany.
The linked thread gets into it better than I could, but in short what needs to be on the table:
* Sweeping Constitutional amendments on the level of 14-16
* Restructuring the entire electoral process
* Prohibiting all members of the opposing party from holding political office for life
* Automatic registration of all eligible voters
* (quite a bit more)

Even in the face of all of the above, much of it was quickly undone. But that's the scale our incoming Democratic government needs to be approaching things at.
posted by CrystalDave at 6:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

NYT calls the Michigan Senate race for Peters (D).
posted by reductiondesign at 6:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

okay we were supposed to get a release of updated info from some of the races at 9 pm tonight and it is now 9:09 and I demand AN UPDATE

Based on my experience closely following the Wisconsin numbers during the wee hours, it'll probably be at least half an hour before the numbers will come in.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 6:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

538 just posted (in an unlinkable fashion):

We just got a large batch of votes from Maricopa County, Arizona, favoring Trump, who is 2.8 points behind in the statewide vote there. The new Maricopa results went about 44,000 to Trump and 30,000 to Biden.

I'm getting the whisky.
posted by bcd at 6:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

I was just watching MSNBC. Biden got a small bump from votes in Arizona. About 5000 more to his lead out of 80000 votes counted. More counts will be coming in later.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

I just think countries of 3–5 million have the right amount of contact

One of the points of federalism is to do exactly this while retaining the ability to act on the larger scale, lest those totalitarian states crush you piecemeal.
posted by aramaic at 6:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

MSNBC said Trump got about 59% of the votes in the latest Maricopa batch... and 59% is about what he needs from remaining votes to tie or surpass Biden.
posted by Roommate at 6:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Federalism would work if A) we could persuade people to care about state-level politics; and B) we didn't have some states with nearly 40 million people and some with 400,000.
posted by argybarg at 6:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Win or Lose, Trump Will Remain a Powerful and Disruptive Force

NYT suggesting that Trump may not fade quietly but instead use his following to become a kingmaker in the Republican Party, not unlike Herbert Hoover. "Mr. Trump could position himself as the de facto leader of the party, wielding an extraordinary database of information about his supporters that future candidates would love to rent or otherwise access."
posted by swift at 6:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

We have already received our election results. We received them a long time ago.

We Americans looked fascism in the eye for four long years—tickled it, clucked over it, considered it both shallowly and deeply.

The result of our contemplation was that most Americans either went to the polls and said "Now that I've gotten a taste, I can't wait to get more of that delicious fascism!" or stayed home and said "I don't see what all the fuss is about."

Those are our election results. We don't need to wait for Election Day to see how far our nation has fallen. Any of us can see it whenever we like.

It still breaks my heart to see it, though.
posted by springo at 6:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [17 favorites]

How could Mark Kelly win in AZ and Trump win, too?
posted by PhineasGage at 6:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

I meant in the sense he won’t still be above ground for the full ten years, but in his (urine soaked, God willing) grave.

Exercise motivator: outlive Trump so you can shit on his grave.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

if the theory of him having Frontotemporal Dementia is correct

Don't look into it but I am a Highly Qualified Dementia Expert and I don't know why I hadn't thought of FTD before but yes--almost certainly. [My handle is one I've used all over the internet since the 1980s (pre-web) when I was doing laboratory neuroscience. I'm now a clinician.]
posted by neuron at 6:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Everything I’m seeing is that the AZ vote will go for Biden but will be tight.
posted by gucci mane at 6:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

There is no effing way Trump stays involved in real politics. He didn't expect to win in 2016 and he clearly hates the DC game when there isn't an opportunity for major self-aggrandizement and attention. He has never had any talent or interest in the actual machinations of real politics.
posted by PhineasGage at 6:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

For example.

Some other counties still have some to be counted and they skew more Dem than Maricopa.
posted by gucci mane at 6:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

OK. So I've kind of been screaming inside my head all day about what's going on in AZ and WI. Wisconson's resolved, I hope.
WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON IN ARIZONA.
posted by rp at 6:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Trump will do what he publicly floated near the end of the 2016 election when he was sure he was going to lose: start Trump News Network. That’s almost certainly not the form it’s going to take but you bet your ass he’s going to keep riding this grift for as long as possible. He needs the money and more importantly he needs to stay VERY public so he can poison any criminal trials against him in the court of public opinion.
posted by Room 101 at 6:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Pima County, where Tucson and U of A is, and skews Dem, still has ballots to count. It’ll be close but should be enough to hold off a Trump victory.
posted by gucci mane at 6:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Steve Kornacki explains the “third bucket” of votes that remain to be counted in Maricopa County, AZ, and why it could end up tipping AZ back to Trump, here.

But yes, Pima County could save us from that dire fate, in the end. Counting on you, Old Pueblo.
posted by darkstar at 6:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

> Person, woman, man, camera, TV

"...homecoming, one, freight car, covfefe."
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 6:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Someone please put me out of my misery re: Arizona and what it means if it goes to Trump.
posted by tzikeh at 6:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

OMG!

Former Aussie Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's petition to set up a Royal Commission into Murdoch's media power just pipped past 500,000 signatures a minute before midnight on the final night last night.

It was already the biggest Parliamentary petition in our history but getting past the magic half million is just that much sweeter.

Thematically relevant to the US election & cancerous influence of Fox.
posted by UbuRoivas at 6:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [34 favorites]

I have a hard time seeing Trump getting an actual TV network off the ground. Maybe a cable access show? Murdoch could pitch in.
posted by swift at 6:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Someone please put me out of my misery re: Arizona and what it means if it goes to Trump.

If AZ goes to Trump we are back to around an 80/20 chance of Biden winning. Not the end, not even a long shot, but way more nerve-wracking than I can face right now.
posted by bcd at 6:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I have a hard time seeing Trump getting an actual TV network off the ground. Maybe a cable access show ?

Best I can do is a recurring guest spot on Fox and Friends.
posted by BeginAgain at 6:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

He'd more likely just slide into NewsMax or OANN and be their marquee talent.
posted by tclark at 6:36 PM on November 4, 2020

Someone please put me out of my misery re: Arizona and what it means if it goes to Trump.

Biden would need to win Pennsylvania, or NV + GA.

I'm worried that the Biden comeback will run out of steam in PA, and GA is going down to the wire.
posted by Clandestine Outlawry at 6:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

If AZ does tip to Trump, that means Biden has to take both NV (likely) and either one of GA or PA to win.

If Biden keeps AZ, he only has to take NV, and doesn’t need either PA or GA to win.

On preview: yes, if Biden won PA, then he wouldn’t need AZ, NV or GA.
posted by darkstar at 6:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

1) Does a traitorous Commander in Chief get sent to Leavenworth?
2) Transition may be easier if Biden just pulls out the transition materials from when he was VP and then figures the delta.
posted by susiswimmer at 6:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

AP called AZ for Biden
posted by ersatzkat at 6:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Even if we don't get the Senate, we will finally be able to get rid of Betsy DeVos, which is such a huge thing, in my mind. I think she mostly flew under the radar and managed to do a great deal of damage over the last four years.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [29 favorites]

ersatzkat: AP called AZ for Biden

AP was wrong
posted by tzikeh at 6:39 PM on November 4, 2020

Yesssss!!!
posted by DTMFA at 6:39 PM on November 4, 2020

It may appear that this lawsuit stuff is just typical Trump chaos, but it isn't. This was all carefully gamed out months ago and Republicans are executing it perfectly. It could very well succeed in handing Trump the election.

You might wonder how it is that a state like Florida had all its absentee ballots counted on election night but states like Georgia and Pennsylvania are taking days. That is exactly as planned. And you might wonder why Trump was in Florida encouraging people to mail in their ballots while he was later the same day telling people in Pennsylvania that mail-in ballots were a fraud. That also is exactly as planned.

Florida has a long history of retired Republican old geezers voting absentee, so Trump worked that to his advantage. He had DeSantis and Republican lawmakers change the voting rules so that absentee ballots were validated and qualified for counting as soon as they were received in the mail days before the election. This meant that those solid Republican absentee ballots could be quickly tallied on election night to give Trump a quick lead.

And Trump did just the opposite in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania where the mail-in ballots were relatively new and more likely to be used by younger Democratic voters. So Trump had Republican lawmakers in those states engineer a slow down for Democratic mail-in ballots so that Republicans who tend to vote in person would give Trump an early lead. So Republican lawmakers in those states did just the opposite of Florida and made rules that prohibited processing mail-in ballots until after polls closed. This processing bottleneck created the huge backlog you are seening now. This enabled Trump to get an early lead and then allows him to use lawsuits to stop the vote counting of the mail-in ballots.

So this plan is exactly what you are seeing now with big mail-in slowdowns in Pennsylvania and Georgia giving Trump an early lead and allowing him to use lawsuits to stop the counting. This could all very well work. Trump has his Republican supermajority on the Supreme Court. At the very least it could keep Biden from claiming victory for weeks and who knows what could happen with Trump's dozens of simultaneous lawsuits. There are a lot of Trump judges out there and any one of them could through a wrench in the election. As long as lawsuits are pending, Biden isn't president.
posted by JackFlash at 6:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

Ah I see my excitement was premature. Sigh.
posted by DTMFA at 6:39 PM on November 4, 2020

Google/AP has Biden 264 to 214, so the 6 NV should suffice, no?
posted by Marticus at 6:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

At work a few weeks ago I had to run a background check on a candidate, and generally I try to give the team some expectations on timelines so onboarding activities can get scheduled. This candidate had previously lived in Arizona. As soon as I saw Maricopa County pop up on the pending report list I IMd everyone my dire forebodings that the screening might take a loooong time to come back. And people were like why, I don't understand, what's a maricopa. And I was just like just have some patience please, this one might take a while.

Feeling pretty vindicated right now.
posted by phunniemee at 6:40 PM on November 4, 2020

Marticus see above re: AP being wrong
posted by tzikeh at 6:41 PM on November 4, 2020

Nevada alone is sufficient only if the call for AZ holds up.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 6:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

I figured they would have reassessed by now.
posted by Marticus at 6:43 PM on November 4, 2020

AZ is going to be razor thin close.

PA is looking more possible though.

I may puke.
posted by Lutoslawski at 6:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Sorry - saw an update that was then deleted
posted by ersatzkat at 6:44 PM on November 4, 2020

I hope that any election reform we see from a potential Biden admin does something to address the uneven vote tallying. Not only is it nerve-wracking, but it can frame things incorrectly in a way that can have lasting effects. Every state should be able to count their early ballots early. I don't see any good reason we should have to wait past election night for results, unless something is so close a recount is required.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:45 PM on November 4, 2020

Why is NYTimes saying the new AZ ballots are looking good for Biden, while the eternally smug assholes at 538 are saying the new AZ ballots are looking bad for Biden?
posted by unknowncommand at 6:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

The Kornacki link I posted explaining the outstanding votes problem in Maricopa County is borked, but tzikeh posted it in her comment here.
posted by darkstar at 6:45 PM on November 4, 2020

But aren't they looking at the same numbers? Why are they reporting them so differently?
posted by unknowncommand at 6:47 PM on November 4, 2020

why is there a moving van parked in front of the white house?
posted by marimeko at 6:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Keep in mind that Maricopa County, Arizona kept re-electing Joe Arpaio, one of the most racist and corrupt sheriffs in the nation for 24 years straight.
posted by JackFlash at 6:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

Someone asked upthread where Trump was going to live now. I’m assuming it’ll be in a van, down by the river.
posted by darkstar at 6:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

why is there a moving van parked in front of the white house?

If it's moving, how could it be parked?

[ba dum tsssss]
posted by clawsoon at 6:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Why are they reporting them so differently?
Because each side has a different opinion if the new batch was “late early” or “early” voters, and there is a (mostly true) narrative of votes skewing Dem if they are are regular early, but not late early.
posted by sideshow at 6:51 PM on November 4, 2020

The Trump team gamed all of this out months ago, yes, but so did the Biden team, who had thousands upon thousands of lawyers working for them. Luckily, Trump is stupid enough to tell everyone how he is going to try to cheat well in advance so they have been prepared for everything. The head of Biden's legal efforts (Bob Bauer) was interviewed on The Circus and though he wouldn't go into details why, was extremely confident that any legal shenanigans from the Trump campaign to halt the vote, not count votes, etc. was absolutely going to fail. It's worth a watch.
posted by triggerfinger at 6:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [31 favorites]

Someone asked upthread where Trump was going to live now. I’m assuming it’ll be in a van, down by the river.

Joey, have you ever been ... in a Turkish Prison?
posted by swift at 6:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

The lawsuit in Georgia is over 53 ballots. Another in PA is about approximately 100 ballots.

Trip Gabriel, NYT: "Almost all of Georgia's counties with appreciable outstanding votes are tinted blue on the map. This is why the White House is reportedly nervous about the state."
posted by reductiondesign at 6:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Yep, as sideshow said, it’s related to not knowing how to predict the remaining votes in AZ.

The early mail-in votes in Maricopa skewed for Biden by +10%.

The day-of voting in Maricopa skewed for Trump by +26%.

All of those votes have been counted.

But there is a “third bucket” of votes in Maricopa that have yet to be counted, and as of an hour ago, it was about 400,000 of the remaining 600,000 votes to be counted in the state. It’s the votes that were mailed in just before Election Day.

No one knows if those votes will be more like the early mail-in votes or more like the day-of votes. So no one can predict which way they will skew. About 80,000 of these votes were just dumped into the totals, and it favored Trump by ~20%. So it looks like these remaining votes will favor Trump. But it’s not clear if they will favor Trump by enough to tip the state to Trump.

Added to this is the other 200,000 outstanding votes outside of Maricopa County. A lot of those are from Pima County, which tends to favor Biden.

So we wait...
posted by darkstar at 7:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

marimeko: why is there a moving van parked in front of the white house?

Most likely to clear out all of the rented stuff for the Election Night Celebration Party and Superspreader Event that never took place.
posted by tzikeh at 7:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

(well, the Superspreader Event took place, just not the celebration part)
posted by tzikeh at 7:03 PM on November 4, 2020

I saw the moving van picture and assumed it was photoshopped. It isn't?
posted by cashman at 7:04 PM on November 4, 2020

Well, I'm glad that the positive results we saw earlier gave me a chance to catch my breath today before going back to this nailbiting. It's hard to spend so much time being so anxious.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 7:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Need to carry the stripped copper wiring in something.
posted by Marticus at 7:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

I'm a little nervous about this report out of GA, a lot more than 53 ballots at stake,
18% of the Atlanta area
posted by Schmucko at 7:05 PM on November 4, 2020

cashman: I saw the moving van picture and assumed it was photoshopped. It isn't?

Nope (unless I'm a sucker, which is always possible no matter how careful I am about sourcing)

More proof from Tim Fullerton's Twitter
posted by tzikeh at 7:06 PM on November 4, 2020

The lawsuit in Georgia is over 53 ballots. Another in PA is about approximately 100 ballots.

The thin edge of a wedge?
posted by rhizome at 7:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Joey, have you ever been ... in a Turkish Prison?

Doe-nalt Trum-pah
posted by rhizome at 7:12 PM on November 4, 2020

Schmucko, the Post Office says those numbers do not actually represent undelivered ballots. Rather, they are ballots that were not scanned because

We employed extraordinary measures to deliver ballots directly to local boards of elections. When this occurs, by design, these ballots bypass certain processing operations and do not receive a final scan.

Via this update from the original source.

More details from Aaron Gordon at Vice.
posted by mbrubeck at 7:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Re Kornacki and Maricopa:

At the time of the video, Biden had 857,135 in Maricopa and Trump had 758,194.
Kornacki said they were expecting 420,000 more votes from Maricopa and 600,000 statewide (I.e. 180,000 outside of Maricopa).

Now (after the first batch at 9pm eastern) MSNBC shows Biden with 887,457 in Maricopa, and Trump with 802,160. Thus, the first batch had 74,288 votes, and Trump got 59% of them.

If Trump also gets 59% of the remaining 345,712 votes in Maricopa (treating Kornacki's 420,000 as a precise total), he'd get 203,970 more votes, and Biden would get 141,742.

If we add those to the current statewide totals, we'd get 1,585,955 for Biden and 1,569,010 for Trump, a difference of 16,945.

Assuming Kornacki's right that other counties have 180,000 votes left, Trump would need to win 55% of those in order to tie it up.
posted by mabelstreet at 7:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

538: "Trump’s lead in Georgia is now down to 31,748 votes, per Decision Desk HQ."
posted by reductiondesign at 7:14 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

About 80,000 of these votes were just dumped into the totals, and it favored Trump by ~20%.

Yeah, that's why I was confused that the NYTimes waited until that exact moment (when they had learned the breakdown of these ballots) to publish something titled, "A dramatic blue shift in Maricopa County, Ariz., boosts Biden’s chances." Maybe they'd already had it written or something? While it's technically true that Biden's chances have been generally "boosted" by this shift, independent of this particular ballot dump, the timing made it seem like the dump itself was good news.
posted by unknowncommand at 7:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Looks like Biden is doing well enough in the remaining votes to be counted in PA to pass Trump, as expected.
posted by eagles123 at 7:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Local news on tv here in Phoenix is just now showing a large crowd of dipshit Trumplicans trying to get into the Maricopa Elections Board. Police blocking them from entry.

They are also demanding that Adrian Fontes, our Maricopa County Recorder, come out to hear their bullshit. Chants of “Fake News!” and “USA! USA!”
posted by darkstar at 7:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

FWIW, both Fox and AP stand by the call after the new ballots came to light.
posted by Slackermagee at 7:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

If you named me one realistic prize out of this election that would have given me the greatest pleasure (so not Texas), it would have been Georgia. I'm trying to hold back the flood of potential excitement.
posted by argybarg at 7:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

And 538 also sounds very confident about Pennsylvania going blue.
posted by peppermind at 7:20 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

After all these back-&-forth 538 updates, I'm gonna need David Fahrenthold to dig into their investments and find out how much they're profiting from the booming sales in booze and antacids/ulcer meds.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 7:22 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

Trumplicans trying to get into the Maricopa Elections Board.

To ... do what exactly? Do these yelling people have a plan?
posted by swift at 7:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Is it likely that enough of the vote in Georgia will come in tonight to call it? It would put Biden at 269. I kind of want to be awake for the networks calling it and a victory speech, even though I don't really want to listen to the speech.
posted by skewed at 7:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Metafilter: Do these yelling people have a plan?
posted by invincible summer at 7:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

The yelling is the plan.
posted by lorddimwit at 7:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Do these yelling people have a plan?

Fuck shit up? The impression I get from the hijinks, USPS and otherwise, over the past few months has been to disturb the fundamental processes in voting and increase the chances of an inadvertent mistake. Invading offices might be a part of that, just to put people on edge who are doing the actual work so that they flub something.
posted by rhizome at 7:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

They tried it in Detroit too.

Here’s what we saw when a bunch of Trump supporters swarmed Detroit’s TCF Center

Do these yelling people have a plan?

Basically the same plan as the Sturmabteilung, just with less sartorial discipline.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

A lot of yelling people made plans before the election. Like George Zipp.
posted by mubba at 7:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Re civil war, Trae Crowder (the Liberal Redneck) has thoughts: "This won't be a North-South affair, no, this is gonna be an urban-rural job, which is a way more fucky type of civil war."
posted by Lexica at 7:32 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Do these yelling people have a plan?

Yelling
posted by argybarg at 7:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Does anyone have any clarity on what's going on with Arizona?

It's a state rich in a landscape of xerophyte plants such as the cactus. But that's not important right now.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 7:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [68 favorites]

The suggestion I heard was that after Jan 20 he'd be tweeting from a dacha in Sochi.

Pretty sure he’ll be tweeting from a resort in Palm Beach.
posted by atoxyl at 7:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

A plan? Oh Dog no, there’s no plan, except to fuck up the vote count and/or sow FUD about the result. The “Florida 2000 Gambit” has become the loser’s last play.

Meanwhile, it just occurred to me that if Biden wins AZ, NV, MI, PA and GA, then the final EV count will be 306 to 232.

If that sounds familiar, it was the exact EV count that Trump beat Clinton by in 2016.

So Biden would have not only exactly flipped the numbers in the EC, but also will have expanded Clinton’s popular vote margin by millions of votes.
posted by darkstar at 7:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

I don't even think there's a plan to fuck up the vote count per se. There's just a plan to yell and look threatening, because MAD
posted by argybarg at 7:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Do these yelling people have a plan?

they think they're ethel merman
posted by 20 year lurk at 7:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

A lot of yelling people

... would be like the Brooks Brothers Riot of 2000, in Florida.
posted by Rash at 7:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

I appreciate everyone pushing back against constant effort to scapegoat everyone except white America who account for ~70% of total population. We won’t keep doing this. It’s truly an abusive dynamic that minorities are blamed for not overcoming the concerted racism of white ppl

That this conversation is framed as “which voters to blame, morally?” instead of “what the fuck happened?” is symptomatic of a problem with liberal politics right now.
posted by atoxyl at 7:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

It was the EV count before unfaithful electorates.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

> Do these yelling people have a plan?

Yelling

The thought occurred to me that in the event Trump loses, from now until January 20, the White House should be surrounded by people chanting "GET THE FUCK OUT" 24 hours a day.
posted by rhizome at 7:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [36 favorites]

Urban vs rural warfare favours the city left over the country fascists.

cf: Leningrad, Stalingrad
posted by UbuRoivas at 7:40 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Do these yelling people have a plan?

I think they’re trying to pull a Brooks Brothers riot, to delay the count until some sort of fuckery can be managed in the courts. But I am not sure it’s working out the way they hoped. There is still room for plenty of fuckery, don’t get me wrong. It just doesn’t seem like these particular demonstrations are sticking.

Also my brain jukebox has now switched from “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over” to “No Plan.” Yes, some days it is very on-the-nose; I can’t help it; it auto-searches by lyrics without my conscious input.
posted by snowmentality at 7:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

We need flash mobs to counteract these Brooke Brothers attacks. Flash mobs who sing Ethel Merman and ridicule them.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

(I just made a spreadsheet estimating biden gain/loss for the remaining vote in georgia across the 50 counties with the largest number of outstanding votes. It looks like north of 40k net gain remaining, against a current gap of 30k. And hopefully the vote tilts even further biden in these last votes to be counted. I am hopeful.)
posted by kaibutsu at 7:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

The more I think about it, the more I suspect that we may have actually had a bona fide blue wave, but we won't know it for a few years. I'm seeing reports from swing states of internet outages, voting machines down, etc. People still reporting seeing glitches in machines changing their votes. Electronic voting machine vulnerabilities, as far as I can tell, have not improved at all from 2016. I suspect that we will know in a few years a lot more details about this, and I'm starting to lean towards the idea that these things will have a not-insignificant effect.

From 2019: Exclusive: Critical U.S. Election Systems Have Been Left Exposed Online Despite Official Denials

This is pretty much the only thing that Jenny Cohn tweets about if you want to know more.
posted by triggerfinger at 7:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

chanting "GET THE FUCK OUT" 24 hours a day.

"LOCK HIM UP", surely.
posted by Literaryhero at 7:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

"O-BA-MA!"
posted by swift at 7:48 PM on November 4, 2020

"You're Fired"
posted by Marticus at 7:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

The thing about the blue wave is, we feel like we didn’t accomplish it - but, if we hadn’t shot for the moon we never would have made it to edge of town. That is what sucks about being a Democrat - you have to work six times as hard. Being shitty is so much easier.
posted by double bubble at 7:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [51 favorites]

"LOCK HIM UP", surely.

Oh god, don't give him the satisfaction of being an originator. The point is it's The Peoples' House, and we don't want him there anymore. Straight-up "nobody likes you" schoolyard banishment.
posted by rhizome at 7:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

We need flash mobs to counteract these Brooke Brothers attacks. Flash mobs who sing Ethel Merman and ridicule them.

A bunch of people in Detroit mobilized to counter them, including this woman in a "Slap Your Local Racist" shirt.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

I'd be fine with singing Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Urban vs rural warfare favours the city left over the country fascists.

cf: Leningrad, Stalingrad

Urban v rural civil war is frequently won by the rural side e.g. America, China, Vietnam, Afghanistan (second time pending).
posted by zymil at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Well, the GOP can always fuck up governance and say "see? Government is shit, just like we said."

That, and the huge imbalance of the Senate, so yeah, in some ways it's easier to be shitty.
posted by argybarg at 7:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

My melancholy song for the last two days has been One Of Them Years. I really want to be wrong in this feeling.

Come on, AZ.
posted by Alterscape at 7:56 PM on November 4, 2020

Oh good christ please, please don’t let “you’re fired” be the prevailing slogan of the day when “you about to lose your job” is right fuckin there for us
posted by churl at 7:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

The only problem with "Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye" is - do you want to kiss Trump, really?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Can we not speculate about civil war, please? Thanks!
posted by ElKevbo at 7:59 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

I. Love. Detroit.

This links to a tweet with embedded video taken outside TCF Center, and NSFW language.

I love this man, and I love Detroit.
posted by Laetiporus at 8:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [27 favorites]

Some post-mortem thoughts from Andrew Gelman, statistician who is one of the creators of the Economist’s election forecast model. (See his earlier blog posts for more good reflections.)
posted by mbrubeck at 8:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

The only problem with "Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye" is - do you want to kiss Trump, really?

If it meant he would disappear into obscurity forever, I'd French him.
posted by nubs at 8:02 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

By French you mean guillotine, non?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [28 favorites]

I'll leave that up to the audience to decide
posted by nubs at 8:04 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Time to head off, Don.
posted by Marticus at 8:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [13 favorites]

If it meant he would disappear into obscurity forever, I'd French him.

Yeargh. I'd prefer to go back to speculating about civil war now...
posted by invincible summer at 8:05 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

An update, based on local tv news reporting on the idiots crowding around the Maricopa Election Center.

A few hundred chanting Trump supporters. Sheriff’s Deputies keeping them outside.

One of their “complaints” — if I understand this correctly and I’m not exactly sure that I do — is some concern some of them had that Sharpie markers were given to in-person voters at the polling places on Election Day. I guess they got a bad rumor about maybe that ballots filled in with Sharpies were being rejected. So they’re pissed because they thought in-person, day-of voters were intentionally being disenfranchised by being sabotaged by being given Sharpies.

So a Maricopa election official just went out on the steps and used a megaphone to tell them — I think — that, no, you doofuses, Sharpies were given to you on Election Day because the ink dries faster than ball point pen ink, so they are less likely to smear/smudge when processed right away. Sharpies aren’t, in fact, invalidating your ballots, and those ballots are being counted.

Not sure if this will actually satisfy the crowd. But I should point out, there’s nothing “Brooks Brothers” about this motley crowd.

(Full disclosure: I filled in my mail-in ballot with a Sharpie. It went well.)
posted by darkstar at 8:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

This is pretty much the only thing that Jenny Cohn tweets about if you want to know more.

I’ve been saying every election since 2016 that as a Software Person I do not find it implausible that the real cheating is honest-to-god vote cheating - rather than techniques of voter influence that Democrats seem to feel are against the unwritten rules - because I simply don’t trust the infrastructure. And yet, right now, reading this series of Twitter conversations, they mostly sound to me like the WSJ columnist who was freaking out earlier about Democratic fraud in Wisconsin because she didn’t understand the difference between turnout as a percentage of eligible voters and turnout as a percentage of registered voters. Is there a reason I should be taking these people seriously? Or are they (as it feels like at first glance) just looking at the unusual Florida and Texas shifts and going “well *I* can’t imagine Trump getting any new voters there?”
posted by atoxyl at 8:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

A few hundred chanting Trump supporters. One of their “complaints” is some concern some of them had was that sharpies were given to in-person voters at the polling places on Election Day. I guess they got a bad rumor about maybe that ballots filled in with sharpies were being rejected. So they’re pissed because they thought in-person, day-of voters were intentionally being disenfranchised by being sabotaged by being given sharpies.

Low information is a hell of a drug.
posted by Liquidwolf at 8:13 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

"Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Goodbye" works fine if the "you" in the lyrics is America.
posted by biogeo at 8:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

The Sharpie rumor has been making the rounds.

I long to see footage of these folks sulking away after the megaphoned explanation.

Edit: Sharpies again?!
posted by swift at 8:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

RE SharpieGate (no, not that one), they just interviewed a woman who filed a lawsuit against the Maricopa County Recorder because of her vote being rejected due to what she said was the Sharpie issue. Turns out her vote was actually counted, after all.

When they asked if she was satisfied that this was, ultimately, a non-issue, she said, “Well, it doesn’t inspire confidence!”

To which, I must wholeheartedly agree.

And alas, I’ve hit my favorites limit for the second time in as many days. Boo!
posted by darkstar at 8:21 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

I was a poll worker this year and we were given sharpies in my precinct in Chicago and it was honestly awful. They would bleed through the ballot but that didn’t cause any problems. However they made marks really easily and if someone accidentally made one tiny dot on a bubble, the scanner would reject it as an “ambiguous mark” and something like 20% of folks had their ballots with over 60 judges rejected for that, so they got to re-do that ballot. I thanked every one profusely for caring so much about the judicial retention votes. Just copying would take at least 5 minutes, it’s really a LOT. (The federal elections were on a different ballot with a lot fewer elections, so there was almost never a problem with that one)
posted by jeweled accumulation at 8:24 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

...to the tune of “It’s the End of the World As We Know It (and I Feel Fine)

🎵 That’s right
It started with a drone strike
Suleiman at the edge of town
Australia was burning down
🎵
posted by sixswitch at 8:25 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

It looks like the FAA and Secret Service are treating Biden as the presumptive president elect. CNN’s aviation correspondent tweeted that the FAA has issued two temporary flight restrictions over the Biden’s home
in Wilmington, DE .
posted by nathan_teske at 8:26 PM on November 4, 2020 [42 favorites]

The Sharpie is coming from inside the election. The Shar Pei is a good doggy.

I stumbled off to bed around...one-ish. Had bad feelings, 2016 flashbacks. Got up today and forced myself to get in the outdoor shower, get ready for work, looked at the news a little. Realizied we might win.

Work was not crazy but it was the first night of INDOOR DINING and the weather warmed up so the outdoor section was open, so I needed to be in two places at the same time all night long. Very slow so I pulled it off. We closed a little early and here we are, on the verge of sending the shitstain packing. Sucks we did not take the Senate. I wanted a big, hopeful victory, and a vast rebuke of the last few years, a loud wild NO. I settle for a sane hand on the tiller and no street violence.

I'm gonna go eat sheppard's pie and drink whiskey. We can't stop now, so many people are counting on us.
posted by vrakatar at 8:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

He is totally running again in 2024, I wouldn't be surprised if the necessary documents are already prepared. He'll run from jail, if need be.

Unless he dies first Trump will be contesting the 2024 Republican primary. Way to much grift available not to. All those donor lists to pump for funds.

That Reddit keeps platforming right-wingers and has been institutionally slow to respond to overt racists and fascists may be disturbing but it is not especially surprising.

Racists and Fascists are apparently 40-50% of the American market; hard to give that sort of revenue stream up.

As long as the Grifter can charge $$$ to the Biden (or any subsequent) administration for Secret Service room, board, and any other Trump hospitality services, he’ll make full use of post-presidential security. More bragging rights to impress marks during future business deals, dontcha know?

It's a maximum million dollars a year for a past President and another half million for his spouse. And then I'm not even sure if a hypothetically divorced Melania gets SS protection; as far as I know the situation (president divorcing post presidency) has never come up before and the act refers to "spouse of the president" and "widow of the president" not former spouse. Considering children only get protection to age 16 I can see a pretty argument that a former spouse is officially no longer considered at risk.

Also it's possible Trump declines protection despite the potential upside. Most of the cash will be going to the SS for wages and management; there won't be the massive flows to his properties. It's not unprecedented. Nixon and FLOTUS Barbara Bush both declined protection. Could be having subpoenable SS agents shadowing his movements might be perceived to cost more than the cash flow generated.
posted by Mitheral at 8:27 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

It looks like the FAA and Secret Service are treating Biden as the presumptive president elect.

President-elect Biden. Has a good ring to it. President-elect Biden. Say it often. Normalize it. On every TV station. Always refer to him as President-elect until Jan 21.
posted by adept256 at 8:30 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

Not to get ahead of myself, but I'm wondering...

The main prediction out there for a President Biden + a GOP Senate is a lame duck presidency due to McConnell's well-honed obstructionism (give or take a couple of executive orders for the base). After the 2010-2016 Obama years, that scenario is so familiar that it seems almost inevitable.

But I do wonder if Biden's fawning nostalgia for GOP segregationists and his instinct to offer Republicans roles in his administration in the name of bipartisanship might indicate another path:

Could there be a Vichy-style Biden administration, where McConnell still more or less runs the show, but Biden gets to take credit for the resultant legislation as Stuff He Got Done By Breaking Washington Gridlock?

Or is McConnell too much of a GOP partisan to accept that kind of grand bargain, and for him, austerity only tastes sweet if it's got the Republican logo on it?
posted by Beardman at 8:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

AZ was promising another tranche of results about now. Commence hitting refresh all.
posted by bcd at 8:35 PM on November 4, 2020

Hmm...news just said the next vote dump from Maricopa was expected to drop in about 1-1/2 hours (11pm AZ time).
posted by darkstar at 8:35 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Hitting bong refresh, y'all. Roger
posted by vrakatar at 8:36 PM on November 4, 2020 [7 favorites]

Oh? Perhaps I flubbed timezones earlier, or maybe plans changed. There's been a tiny bit of that recently. Okay, back to waiting.
posted by bcd at 8:37 PM on November 4, 2020

Per Reddit, Q has a theory about how Donny will manufacture a win:

“Q is now saying that one of Trump's last-resort contingency plans to ensure his Presidency through unleashing chaos is to immediately declassify and upload to the Internet all American and allied UFO files, including raw footage of the onboard camera from the Roswell crash showing that the Earth is flat. They cite his recent dump of the raw *60 Minutes* footage on Facebook.”
posted by glaucon at 8:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

538 said 11:30pm and 9pm eastern. "Tracking The Vote In Arizona" on the liveblog, 9:09PM ET.
posted by axiom at 8:37 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

...oh hell yeah. This is the one Qultist quackery I can actually get on board with.

INFORMATION [about UFOs] WANTS TO BE FREE.
posted by Lonnrot at 8:39 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

Yes the 60 minutes interview definitely helped him retain the presidency, sound logic there.
posted by axiom at 8:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

I will admit I have doubted the security of the election systems since the Dieblold debacles in Ohio, and it wouldn't surprise me if SOME systems are hacked at this very moment. But one of the positives of our nutso local elections independence is that different jurisdictions use wildly different systems, and when polls are consistently off all over the country, that indicates a problem with polling as a field - probably related to changing patterns of people's phone usage and response patterns - not universal hacking of so many different ballot systems.
posted by PhineasGage at 8:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

You know what? I'm not worried about 2024 because Parks and Rec showed us that Biden is President in 2025.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 8:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Plot twist: Trump is right about the UFOs but nobody believes him anymore. Zuckerberg peels off his man-mask to reveal a lizard alien head, and then eats a rat, not realizing he forgot to mute his camera during a Congressional hearing. AOC speaks into the mic: "this is not normal."
posted by swift at 8:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [11 favorites]

Having my beloved UFOs being co-opted into QAnon is just another turd on the shitpile of 2020.
posted by robocop is bleeding at 8:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [28 favorites]

glaucon: "Per Reddit, Q has a theory about how Donny will manufacture a win:

“Q is now saying that one of Trump's last-resort contingency plans to ensure his Presidency through unleashing chaos is to immediately declassify and upload to the Internet all American and allied UFO files, including raw footage of the onboard camera from the Roswell crash showing that the Earth is flat. They cite his recent dump of the raw *60 Minutes* footage on Facebook.”"

Where is this pullquote from?
posted by Rhaomi at 8:50 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Prior to last night I thought that if the results were off from the polls by several orders of magnitude it was time to start blowing whistles about direct vote hacking. And now here they are, but everyone agrees the polls were wrong.

The thing is that the results are off pretty much across the board. The likelihood that attackers could have compromised all of them (and each one having different sets of operation and security setups) without being detected is vanishingly small. If it was one or two key states showing results that were orders of magnitude off, then something might be fishy. And most of the states still have some form of paper that can be audited to check for something suspicious.
posted by Candleman at 8:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Ugh, that's becoming a ouroboros of conspiracy theories
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 8:51 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

how does declassifying and publishing all ufo info secure his continued presidency?
posted by 20 year lurk at 8:53 PM on November 4, 2020

QAnon is going by the modern fundamentalist religion playbook. There's so much crazy shit if you believed it all, but fortunately, the most rabid believers happily adapt to a buffet-style faith. QAnon isn't going away, it's metastasizing.
posted by tclark at 8:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [5 favorites]

Crowd outside of Maricopa Elections Center is not dispersing. Getting louder. Jerkface Rep Paul Gosar (R) showed up to milk the publicity and rabble-rouse. Right now, they have another jerk praying through a megaphone. One news reporter had to leave because she was being harassed. Sheriff’s Deputies moved all media inside because crowd is getting hostile.

It appears that the earlier times quoted by 538 for the AZ vote dumps may have been amended by locals. Anyway, they are repeating that the next AZ vote dump will be at 11pm AZ time (1am EST), or in just over an hour from now.

Just to clarify: AZ is in its own time zone that doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time.

In the fall (i.e., now), we are aligned with MST, so we are two hours earlier than EST.

In the Spring, when the other zones “spring forward”, the time gap stretches to three hours earlier than EST.

This has been a life-long math problem, living in AZ but having all my family living in GA, and trying to keep track of the shifting difference in times.
posted by darkstar at 8:56 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

Thank you for the continued updates from your strange time zone, darkstar!
posted by swift at 8:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

living in AZ but having all my family living in GA,

holy shit it is almost like you can be in two swing states at the same time!
posted by vrakatar at 9:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

> QAnon is going by the modern fundamentalist religion playbook.

If that's true, I eagerly await QAnon skipping ahead to the "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1879" vs "Northern Conservative Baptist Great Lakes Region Council of 1912" endstage.
posted by Fiberoptic Zebroid and The Hypnagogic Jerks at 9:00 PM on November 4, 2020 [18 favorites]

Is there a reason I should be taking these people seriously?

This is so far outside my area of expertise, but Jenny Cohn seems legit. She's a lawyer and election security advocate and has been published in The New York Review of Books.
posted by triggerfinger at 9:00 PM on November 4, 2020

A reporter from MSNBC in AZ "They're actually chanting 'Fox News Sucks'"
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 9:03 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

Vegas here... Regarding AZ's time zone, it's really frustrating working in Vegas but having the corporate office in Phoenix.

Anyway, a lot of our local message boards have been swarmed by people wanting us to finish the count. Our SoS is a Republican, so... yeah, we'll see what happens there.

Anyway, suddenly reporters around the country are saying 'Nevada" and pronouncing it wrong. This offends a lot of Las Vegans. I have no idea why. But anyway, the running joke is that every time a reporter pronounces it wrong we restart the count.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 9:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [14 favorites]

upload to the Internet all American and allied UFO files

Uh, despite my prior talk of flooding qanon boards with UFO stuff, I promise I had nothing to do with this.
posted by kaibutsu at 9:06 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Very strange to realize that Fox News called Arizona for Biden over 24 hours ago now.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:07 PM on November 4, 2020 [10 favorites]

With the caveat that this is also not my area of expertise -- I do know that Jennifer Cohn and Matt Blaze have very significant disagreements over election policy, specifically with regards to paper ballots. Based on Blaze's reputation alone, I would be very skeptical of her claims.
posted by yeahwhatever at 9:08 PM on November 4, 2020

cnn has a team in Arizona and they are having some ranting lunatics there.
posted by vrakatar at 9:09 PM on November 4, 2020

Anyway, suddenly reporters around the country are saying 'Nevada" and pronouncing it wrong. This offends a lot of Las Vegans. I have no idea why. But anyway, the running joke is that every time a reporter pronounces it wrong we restart the count.

Well, JustAnotherPerson, this Veep clip is for you
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 9:09 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

saying 'Nevada" and pronouncing it wrong

Wait, have I been pronouncing it wrong, too? How many ways can you pronounce Nevada?
posted by swift at 9:11 PM on November 4, 2020

Nav-a-dah?
posted by elwoodwiles at 9:13 PM on November 4, 2020

I think that it's related to Trump giving a weird lesson on how to pronounce Nevada back in 2016.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

A reporter from MSNBC in AZ "They're actually chanting 'Fox News Sucks'"

Yeah, they don’t like that Fox called AZ for Biden. It’s a case of a broken clock being right...Fox called it prematurely, imho. Still looking for Biden to win AZ, but Fox called it way too soon, I think.

Meanwhile, Maricopa Sheriff’s Deputies calmly gearing up in tactical gear inside the building, just in case they need to engage with hostile Trump supporters outside.

holy shit it is almost like you can be in two swing states at the same time!

It’s definitely giddy-making to think that both of these red states that I’ve spent so much time in over the decades, might both go Blue tonight! AZ will have two Dem senators for the first time in 70 years.

I’m especially eager about the two Senate races in GA. It MAY be possible to keep Perdue to just under 50%. If so, then GA could have TWO runoff Senator races with a particular synergy for the Dem candidates. Warnock could increase Black voter turnout and Ossoff could increase suburban White liberal turnout. It would be remarkable if GA were able to flip both of those Senate seats in runoffs.
posted by darkstar at 9:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

N'va da, not N'vah da?
posted by Rash at 9:16 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Duh.
posted by reductiondesign at 9:17 PM on November 4, 2020

let's call the whole thing off
posted by swift at 9:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

Nevada - the middle syllable should rhyme with "add" rather than "odd."
posted by Umami Dearest at 9:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

dances_with_sneetches - it's been a thing for a lot longer than that. I've never understood why so many people pronounce it wrong and why it offends so many Nevadans...

Anyway, with everyone making guesses, I'd expect NV's final tally around Christmas.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 9:19 PM on November 4, 2020

The Recount @therecount
Trump supporters: "Stop the vote!"

Also Trump supporters: "Count that vote!"

[video of chants]

#election2020
6.2K Retweets 3.2K Quote Tweets 15.3K Likes
posted by Ahmad Khani at 9:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

NUH-VAD-hah
posted by clavdivs at 9:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

suddenly reporters around the country are saying 'Nevada" and pronouncing it wrong

It's a Spanish word; the ignorance and arrogance of Anglo settlers doesn't mean their mispronunciation is the correct way to say it.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [27 favorites]

cnn has a team in Arizona and they are having some ranting lunatics there.

Chuck D issued a statement on that situation some years ago.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

the ignorance and arrogance of Anglo settlers doesn't mean their mispronunciation is the correct way to say it.

I've always felt that way about New Ohleeoh(n).
posted by UbuRoivas at 9:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

On the Latino vote, there was an interview with Chuck Rocha, who is a serious Democratic consultant and also a Hispanic Mexican Texan, on Chris Hayes's podcast "Why is This Happening" on Oct 27. Chuck Rocha has both his consulting business and a book to flog, but he is at least someone taking this deadly seriously.

Please don't take seriously any one-word explanation of the "Latino Trump voter" phenomenon.

"Cubans etc have specific traumas, direct or indirect, about socialism in their country of origin, so that word has a lot of psychological heft with them" is specific, nuanced, and backed by both historical and personal testimony (twitter link warning). I'd rate that A+ but clearly incomplete, because that's just one slice of the Latino demographic.

"Caudillo-ism" has a hint of nuance to it, and so does "machismo", but I'd want to interrogate that pretty heavily; honestly, it smacks of othering. Any Hispanic American voter is a citizen, and has spent either a) several decades b) their entire life c) several generations in the process of becoming American. We have to at least consider the idea that they don't need special Latino reasons to vote for Trump. Sometimes those special Latino reasons do exist, but it's also possible they're voting the way they are for normal American reasons.

All the liberal shock at the whole phenomenon of the Latino Trump voter has an underlying logic to it, which is that Latino voters should be voting based on racial identity, like People of Color do, which is to say, like Black people do. That assumption is demonstrably ... flawed. What to do with that is not my job, but I'll say this:

My gut feeling, based on experience and conversation and listening, is that a lot of Hispanic people will readily assimilate into whiteness. Some segment of Hispanic people already identify themselves as White and Hispanic on the census - I don't have the capacity to look up numbers right now, but the census data is public and online, you can look for yourself. I've never heard ANYONE interrogate what that means to them. One Mexican guy told me that he ticked off "white" on the census because "Hispanic" isn't an option for that question. So how many people would tick "Hispanic" as a race, or "mestizo", and how many would still tick White? I dunno! But I'm pretty sure it's a mix! All racial categories are made up but "Hispanic" is a really fucking incoherent racial category. Google a picture of Senator Bob Menendez for me. It's really hard to call him a person of color.

Hispanic people absolutely do assimilate into middle class, American, suburbany, aspirational bourgeois politics. All the Spanish language TV channels are in that mode. My literal next door neighbors are in that mode.

They can also assimilate into the American anti-politics, which is to say, to quote my coworker who is an undocumented immigrant, "don't care about politicians, they don't care about you." And "they never actually do anything to change things" and "they're all the same." And, in the end, he said, "I just gotta do what I gotta do. I gotta work, I gotta support my family, do what I gotta do. If I get deported, I'll have to work there too. My life might get harder or worse and I still just gotta work."

This might be influenced by his experience of Latin American political culture, but I don't think it is. This guy came to the US when he was 10 years old, and he's now 35 - there ain't no wet on his back. He's saying the exact same stuff I hear from lots and lots of Americans. And he says "they're all the same" even though Obama did DACA and Trump did cages.

This is way longer than I wanted to go, but aside from my personal essay, I've told you to listen or give some thought to a) Chuck Rocha, b) Natalie Morales, c) census data, and d) Spanish language TV channels. There are serious answers to the questions on your mind. They're mostly not on Twitter.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 9:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [60 favorites]

I speak Spanish and I pronounce it somewhere between VAH and the open VA because the latter is like nails on a chalkboard, and the former sounds too comically posh.
posted by ipsative at 9:27 PM on November 4, 2020

Looks like Maricopa results might be delayed more...
From @alexadobrien on Twitter

"BREAKING: Maricopa is now CLOSING due to "concerns about unrest from sizeable crowds protesting vote counting per @CNN

.@CNN reporting that some folks in the crowd are armed because it is open carry state.

The building is closing due to safety concerns for poll workers."
posted by CarolynG at 9:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [6 favorites]

it's easy to tell who's not from around there because they pronounce it "neh-VAH-dah" instead of "WOOS-ter" like the locals do
posted by DoctorFedora at 9:38 PM on November 4, 2020 [45 favorites]

Surely the police could handle that crowd in the same calm and measured manner they used on unarmed protestors earlier this year?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:41 PM on November 4, 2020 [32 favorites]

Maricopa County Election Department says they are not stopping work:

Staff at the @maricopacounty Elections Department will continue our job, which is to administer elections in the second largest voting jurisdiction in the county. We will release results again tonight as planned. We thank the @mcsoaz
for doing their job, so we can do ours.

More from Josh Kelety of the Phoenix New Times:

[The report of Maricopa closing] isn't accurate, according to a spokesperson with the Maricopa County Elections Dept. Their ballot counting shifts run from 7:30am to 10:30pm and the agency still plans to issue another ballot drop at 11:00pm. "We are going to report results at 11:00."

posted by mbrubeck at 9:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

~~What a bunch of choads. The whole country is waiting for the results of this vote count, and these Trump-loving goons just caused us all to have to wait another day.~~

On preview, thank goodness! So we’re still expecting another vote drop in 15 minutes.
posted by darkstar at 9:43 PM on November 4, 2020

We've reached peak anti-intellectualism when there are protests against counting.
posted by adept256 at 9:43 PM on November 4, 2020 [30 favorites]

This crowd has guns, so if anything happens it definitely won't be "calm and measured".
posted by sideshow at 9:44 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

Let's all agree to let byedons be byedons.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [8 favorites]

We've reached peak anti-intellectualism when there are protests against counting.

No. There is always more anti-intellectualism.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 9:45 PM on November 4, 2020 [19 favorites]

Am I the only person worried about the crowds breaking in, destroying ballots, setting fire to the building, etc.? Do they lock the ballots in fireproof safes?
posted by The Wrong Kind of Cheese at 9:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

Migrant to Arizona here - I've been wondering when this stuff would come up. I promise you, nothing prepares you for a 5 mile long Trump caravan on the 101; the entire time it drove by, all I could think about was (A) the amount of gas wasted, (B) how much time wasted, and (C) how donating that gas money and using that time to call people to get them to turn out would probably have helped them more.

I'm glad to see that they are not backing down. One thing I like about Arizona (aside from the sunny weather and 110 degree days for 6 months straight) is that people here have a fucking spine. Those bullshit protesters outside that can't agree on a message? Well it doesn't matter, because they ain't backin down. Those poll workers who are fucking so sick of this bullshit and just want to do their job? They ain't backin down either, cuz that wouldn't be in the spirit of being an Arizonian.
posted by thebotanyofsouls at 9:46 PM on November 4, 2020 [16 favorites]

Surely the authorities are not going to get themselves into a situation where they leave the ballots unguarded next to an angry mob of idiots.
posted by axiom at 9:47 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

We've reached peak anti-intellectualism when there are protests against counting.

This isn't anti-intellectualism, it's fascism.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:53 PM on November 4, 2020 [34 favorites]

The Wrong Kind of Cheese: Nope! Exactly one of the scenarios I have been worried about. Less worried than I was on Monday, still slightly worried with things like this happening:

The US justice department told federal prosecutors today that the law allowed the government to send armed officers to ballot counting locations

The vote disruption/disenfranchisement/stealing has not been as large-scale as I'd worried so far, but Trumpists are also going to be in an extremely agitated and despairing state once reality sets in. I keep an eye on several groups and they have been clinging to the idea that Trump really won but the media/Democrats are stealing the election. They will whip themselves into a frenzy over this once a Biden win can be declared. Which is one of the most concerning scenarios that have been on my mind the past week. What happens after that? Trump will try to escalate the situation - will Republicans follow him or break from him? We'll get to find out. I am uneasy, but not as anxious as I was at the beginning of the week.
posted by Lonnrot at 9:54 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

It is 1:08 am EST, have we heard any news from Arizona?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:08 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

Waiting...we are expecting another drop right about now, but they say it also could be delayed by another 30 minutes.
posted by darkstar at 10:09 PM on November 4, 2020

Another 30 minutes? Hell, I'm going to bed.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:10 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Another 30 minutes? Hell, I'm going to bed.

They're facing an armed, angry mob. I'm cutting them some slack.
posted by tzikeh at 10:15 PM on November 4, 2020 [15 favorites]

It's a Spanish word; the ignorance and arrogance of Anglo settlers doesn't mean their mispronunciation is the correct way to say it.

In my heart I always knew my first comment in a politics megathread would be about phonetics.

The Spanish pronunciation is [neˈβaða], but we are almost certainly talking about [nɪˈvædə] vs. [nɪˈvɑdə] here. Both of these are thoroughly Anglicized and about equally "wrong" to a Spanish speaker. Whether [æ] (the vowel in cat) or [ɑ] (the vowel in father) better approximates the Spanish [a] is a matter of perception; it's physically somewhere in the middle, but American English speakers tend to hear it as closer to/indistinguishable from [ɑ], which is interesting (and not limited to Spanish—one of my students speaks Italian, which also uses [a], and he has pointed out that the American pronunciation of pasta with [ɑ] sounds no better to his ear than the Canadian pronunciation with [æ]).

So you have Nevadans saying [nɪˈvædə] as a kind of shibboleth, and other Americans often saying [nɪˈvɑdə] which is not really more accurate in any sense but is in line with how Americans tend to register "foreign 'a'".

Then to some extent you have the same phenomenon with Colorado! Growing up in California, I learned Nevada with [æ] (they're right next door after all), but Colorado with [ɑ]. But some Coloradans pronounce Colorado with [æ] and Nevada with [ɑ]. Anglicization is weird.

(But also, Anglicization is normal. That is, adapting the pronunciation of a loanword to the phonology of the receiving language is pretty much universal and not specifically a manifestation of white colonialist arrogance. Insisting that the result is the one correct and authentic pronunciation, on the other hand, is some white colonialist shit for sure.)
posted by aws17576 at 10:17 PM on November 4, 2020 [69 favorites]

On CNN:

Maricopa County will post its next batch of ballot results closer to 1:30 a.m. ET/11:30 p.m. MT, because of the process of uploading the data, according to Diana Solorio, a spokesperson for Maricopa County Elections Department.

They originally expected the results to be released by 12:30 a.m. ET/10:30 p.m. MT.

Solorio said the delay is not related to the protest going on outside the elections department building, but that it is simply part of the process uploading election data like this.
posted by darkstar at 10:18 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

The Guardian's showing Fulton at 100% counted and DeKalb are reporting 369,948 votes as the final count, of which the Graun accounts for 367,359 ... which I interpret to mean 2,589 votes left for the Graun to update in Georgia with a Biden shortfall of about 23,000

They're showing DeKalb as the only county not at 100%

Anybody have any other data on Georgia?
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:29 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

In my heart I always knew my first comment in a politics megathread would be about phonetics.

And it hits the spot. :) As a native Californian, I use "æ" for both Nevada and Colorado, and because I just had occasion to think about it, I think of that pronunciation of Colorado as having a "flattened" "a", like a Midwesternization (without rigor). That is, it's much less of a shibboleth than a Nevada pronunciation, though funnily enough, "Nevada" pronunciation is how I learned what a shibboleth is.

Maricopa County will post its next batch of ballot results closer to 1:30 a.m. ET/11:30 p.m. MT

Gawd, let these people sleep, there's no reason to treat this as a hair-on-fire situation outside of dribblings of Trump's pee-pee mouth. Tell everybody to chill out.
posted by rhizome at 10:31 PM on November 4, 2020

adapting the pronunciation of a loanword to the phonology of the receiving language is pretty much universal and not specifically a manifestation of white colonialist arrogance

In my experience it absolutely is a manifestation of colonialist arrogance (at least in places in the western USA with historic Spanish-speaking populations which were still present but treated as an underclass by the Anglo settlers who moved in in the 1840's-1860's).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:33 PM on November 4, 2020

A lot of theories being tossed around as to why Nevuhda stopped counting for the day. Popular theory is the Secretary of State is intentionally slowing it down to wait for results from other states, with the intent of possible shenanigans if necessary, since the SoS is a Republican.

Personally I think it's just a capacity issue with poll workers. Most probably don't wanting to be working a 24 hour shift.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 10:33 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

And then later they write: "When all the votes are counted, Joe Biden might be the first presidential candidate to produce a blue Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992"

I give up trying to follow their data.
posted by UbuRoivas at 10:34 PM on November 4, 2020 [1 favorite]

In allowing myself to watch some news tonight, I'm struck by the almost universal use of frowny Trump headshots for the stories.

- Photo while voting going on

- Photo while votes being counted: LA Times vote count
posted by rhizome at 10:40 PM on November 4, 2020

The answer is clearly to start calling it "Nevxda".
posted by Rhaomi at 10:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [21 favorites]

This isn't anti-intellectualism, it's fascism.

Anti-intellectualism is one of the distinguishing features of fascism.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:42 PM on November 4, 2020 [12 favorites]

We've reached peak anti-intellectualism when there are protests against counting.

well played, adept256. I rofl'd.
posted by ipsative at 10:43 PM on November 4, 2020

I've been watching per county remaining votes in georgia on the nyt page for georgia results. The guardian looks like it's copying over some of the nyt graphics... There's a bunch of heavily Biden leaning counties with pretty good sized populations and pretty low reporting still. Like Clayton county: 104k votes counted, 84% reporting, +71 Biden so far. Assuming the remaining votes percentages on the site are good, there's still a good chance for Biden to close the gap, according to my spreadsheets...
posted by kaibutsu at 10:49 PM on November 4, 2020 [3 favorites]

I’m watching CNN’s livestream and have this growing suspicion — but can’t quite confirm it — that it may be delayed by several minutes. Is anyone familiar with an intentional time lag on CNN’s web livestream?
posted by darkstar at 10:52 PM on November 4, 2020

Just waking up here...when I went to bed, I was under the impression we'd have a lot more AZ and NV results by now. CNN saying AZ results coming momentarily, but what happened in NV? They said they'd drop at like 9PM if I recall?
posted by unid41 at 11:06 PM on November 4, 2020

If Trump Tries to Sue His Way to Election Victory, Here’s What Happens (ProPublica, Nov. 4) It’s easy enough for the Trump campaign to file a lawsuit claiming improprieties, but a lot harder to provide evidence of wrongdoing or a convincing legal argument. Here’s what you need to know as the election lawsuits start to mount. [...]

“A lawsuit without provable facts showing a statutory or constitutional violation is just a tweet with a filing fee,” said Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.
posted by Iris Gambol at 11:11 PM on November 4, 2020 [22 favorites]

@darkstar: The CNN livestreams on the web and on the phone app are both delayed roughly a minute compared to the cable TV broadcast.
posted by theory at 11:12 PM on November 4, 2020

For those still stuck on the pronunciation, I offer an
Atta boy, Nevada!
(Special thanks to Morrigan from Oregon for calling that one in.)
posted by bartleby at 11:14 PM on November 4, 2020

Nevada decided to release results tomorrow am instead.
posted by triggerfinger at 11:17 PM on November 4, 2020

I think of that pronunciation of Colorado as having a "flattened" "a", like a Midwesternization (without rigor). That is, it's much less of a shibboleth than a Nevada pronunciation

The shibboleth here is the demonym, "Coloradan" vs. "Coloradoan".

Also, whether you insert an extra ghost vowel in "Westminster" or add the final Mystery S in "Safeway"
posted by Rat Spatula at 11:19 PM on November 4, 2020 [4 favorites]

We've reached peak anti-intellectualism when there are protests against counting.

“For our protests to be effective, we need to show our opponents what they are up against! Stand up and refuse to be counted!”
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:23 PM on November 4, 2020 [9 favorites]

“For our protests to be effective, we need to show our opponents what they are up against! Stand up and refuse to be counted!”

It's an appeal to the lowest common numerator.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:28 PM on November 4, 2020 [26 favorites]

I’ve been lurking here since the 9/11 thread but I had to make an account. Just wanted to say hi, and, uh, any news on AZ or GA?
posted by esquandolad at 11:31 PM on November 4, 2020 [64 favorites]

Welcome aboard, esquandolad! And sadly, no. Still holding out hope there will be another drop soon from AZ.
posted by bcd at 11:46 PM on November 4, 2020

AZ: More vote counts supposedly coming about an hour ago. Crickets.

GA: More votes coming "sometime tonight".
posted by mmoncur at 11:46 PM on November 4, 2020

Maricopa just dropped their last batch for the evening. Trump gained about 10,000 on Biden. CNN rough estimate says that this batch of votes were skewed enough for Trump that, if the margin were sustained for the rest of the outstanding Maricopa votes, then Trump would indeed be able to catch up to Biden.

However, there is some doubt among CNN analysts that the Trump skew would last for these remaining votes, though. They think that it’s unlikely that these remaining votes are homogeneously Trumpy. So they don’t think Trump will catch Biden.

Additionally, there are several votes in Pima County that are expected to be more Democratic, which would act to offset ground Trump might regain.

Conclusion: Trump does have a path in AZ, but it seems to be lower probability.
posted by darkstar at 11:48 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

Here’s the Twitter for Garret Archer who is tracking AZ.
posted by herda05 at 11:52 PM on November 4, 2020 [2 favorites]

430k ballots left for AZ. Gonna be another looooong night.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 11:55 PM on November 4, 2020

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...
posted by esquandolad at 11:58 PM on November 4, 2020 [25 favorites]

Anybody have any recommendations for people to follow on Twitter who are reporting on Georgia and PA?
posted by herda05 at 12:01 AM on November 5, 2020

And apparently Archer is going to bed now.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 12:02 AM on November 5, 2020

Repeating myself a bit, but I’m about to go to bed. So for the evening:

Biden ahead by about 68,000 votes in AZ. Trump needs about 57% of remaining votes to catch up to Biden. The last few batches that came in for Trump were meeting that threshold.

But the Biden campaign says they feel “comfortable” that the remaining votes won’t keep that margin for Trump, based, it sounds like, on their knowledge of who cast those ballots.

In GA, Trump is ahead by 23,000 with 95% reporting. But those remaining 5% amount to about 250,000 votes. If Biden can get 55% of those remaining votes, which commenters think is reasonable, then Biden can make up that gap and take GA.

No more votes to be reported tonight. Goodnight, y’all!
posted by darkstar at 12:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue...

On the bright side, it allowed you to save $5 for an account. So there's that.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Woke up early this morning hoping for News and there is none, but I will settle for No Bad News at this point. I slept terribly last night and I'm not even American, I have no idea how you guys are even staying remotely sane.

I am constantly doing Georgia math. C'mon Georgia I believe in you.
posted by stillnocturnal at 12:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I just want to say, for the record, thank you MeFi for continuing to be the best community online and for being the reasonable voice I needed in my head.

Though I didn't officially join until 2006, I've been reading MeFi for over 20 years now and the way y'all handled 2001 will live on in my personal memory.

Also, can't thank you enough for introducing me to Neutral Milk Hotel all those years ago

Let's do this. And continue protests against any policies that we can - finally - know will actually be heard.
posted by revmitcz at 12:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [27 favorites]

In allowing myself to watch some news tonight, I'm struck by the almost universal use of frowny Trump headshots for the stories.

I don’t know how applicable it is in the modern world, but a university friend of mine worked just after graduation as a photo librarian for a major daily paper. A photo librarian is (or possibly was) the poorly paid entry level job where you toiled in the photo library and several times a day you’d get a call from editorial folks planning the paper, ordering a file photo of the president or the pope or the PM of the UK or whatever.

The photo librarian would choose which photos to send up, and as these librarians were always poorly paid young people, they would often make their choice to send up unflattering pictures of the public figures who pissed them off. My friend opined that the photo librarians wielded immense power (and were indirectly responsible for the belief in a liberal media — the pictures you saw of conservatives with their tongue half out of their mouths were chosen by a 21-year-old slacker with three roommates who struggled to scrape up the cash to cover the phone bill).

I haven’t worked in journalism since I was a youngster in the eighties so I don’t really know how true her assessment of their power was, but by the time she was forty she was head of graphics for AP, and had won an Emmy.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:23 AM on November 5, 2020 [60 favorites]

So, if we assume Biden has AZ (should have a good idea by Thursday's drop), then he only needs any one of the remaining states to win. I guess NV seems the most probable while PA and GA are more toss-ups that seem to favor Biden.

NV accepts ballots up to Nov. 10, but I can't imagine that many will arrive after, say Nov. 6-7(?) that have been postmarked by election day. PA accepts ballots for 3 days, so they should at least have all ballots by Nov. 6. GA doesn't accept ballots after election day. So among these three states, I'm thinking GA has the most likely chance of being called by end of Thursday? The others seem more likely on Friday at the earliest, if there's a large percentage of expected mail-in vote arriving. Thoughts? I'm sitting here optimistically gaming-out how we can finally get an answer today.
posted by unid41 at 12:37 AM on November 5, 2020

I am reminded of the pitch drop experiment.
posted by pracowity at 12:39 AM on November 5, 2020 [26 favorites]

I'm quite sure that Trump thinks that democrats are stealing this election through [legit] vote.
posted by nicolin at 12:44 AM on November 5, 2020

430k ballots left for AZ. Gonna be another looooong night.

So long as the mob doesn't break in and wreak havoc on the ballots. Curious how they're protecting that location tonight.
posted by tzikeh at 12:45 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

My moronic trumpster high school friends are crowing that "the senate will step in and stop this coup." Is this just fantasy flailing?
posted by frumiousb at 12:47 AM on November 5, 2020

if the senate could stop votes from being counted, we would have long ago lost any semblance of democracy in America
posted by DoctorFedora at 12:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I know I should probably feel more anxiety about Trump's threats about taking this to SCOTUS. But if I can recall, even the SCOTUS fight in 2000 ended when Gore decided to concede the election, right? I'm too tired too look it up. But even with this conservative majority, I find it difficult to believe that SCOTUS would want to set any kind of precedent that would delegitimize vote counting. That as long as the votes were being collected and counted according to rules established by the states, that they're legitimate. Recounts? Sure. But I don't see Trump having a leg to stand on here. Can someone who actually knows about this kind of thing let me know if I should be worried? Obviously Trump wants to try shenanigans but how likely is it that it could become something?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 1:00 AM on November 5, 2020

Can someone help reconcile two pieces of Pennsylvania analysis from the Washington Post for me? At time of writing (4:15 EST), this one seems to say that there aren't enough votes left in the cities for Biden ("Trump will probably hold his lead"), while this one seems to suggest a Biden win in graphics.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 1:13 AM on November 5, 2020

If AZ stays Biden but he ends up losing PA, his eventual 270 will be thanks to the work of one person: barber, activist and two-term state legislator Ernie Chambers, without whom there would be no NE-2.
posted by progosk at 1:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [38 favorites]

For the second time in a row, it shouldn't even be close.
posted by rhizome at 1:30 AM on November 5, 2020 [37 favorites]

I know I should probably feel more anxiety about Trump's threats about taking this to SCOTUS
The Propublica article about Trumps legal challenges - linked above - points out that trump cannot "take the issues to SCOTUS" as he claims. You have to start your case in lower courts and work your way up to SCOTUS - a process that takes time and which (more importantly) requires clear evidence of fraud to get started in the first place.
posted by rongorongo at 1:32 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

(Better link for the full Ernie Chambers thread, and to the full documentary A Time for Burning.)
posted by progosk at 1:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

I keep thinking of the hostage-taking politician in Robocop. "I want a recount! And no matter how it turns out, I want my old job back!"

Unfortunately no cyborg is likely to burst through the wall for this one.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Here in the UK the BBC are reporting that Trump may make another presidential bid in 2024, which is confusing me a little, I didn't think someone in jail would be allowed to run for president?
posted by Lanark at 2:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

For the second time in a row, it shouldn't even be close.

It should never have been this close. That it was, that I was gullible enough to believe it wouldn’t be, I think, has broken something in me, and honestly, I don’t know if I want it fixed, because I never wanted to hurt again like I did four years ago and here I am, hurt again, with the added bonus of feeling like a dumbass because I let myself believe that good things were, just maybe, possible.
posted by Ghidorah at 2:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [61 favorites]

I'm hitting "reload" on 538 like it was a magic 8 ball.
posted by frumiousb at 2:10 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I didn't think someone in jail would be allowed to run for president?

The mistake you're making is assuming he will face any consequences whatsoever.
posted by EndsOfInvention at 2:10 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Oh I don't know. Melania might decide she's had enough of him.
posted by flabdablet at 2:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

“Are Irish nan's going to be putting up a picture of Joe Biden next to JFK and the Pope?”
- @Liam_JF_ORourke
posted by Morfil Ffyrnig at 2:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

I didn't think someone in jail would be allowed to run for president?

Technically there's no law against it. Eugene Debs ran for president while serving a 10-year federal prison sentence for sedition (later commuted), and got more than 3% of the popular vote.
posted by teraflop at 2:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

It should never have been this close. That it was, that I was gullible enough to believe it wouldn’t be, I think, has broken something in me, and honestly, I don’t know if I want it fixed, because I never wanted to hurt again like I did four years ago and here I am, hurt again, with the added bonus of feeling like a dumbass because I let myself believe that good things were, just maybe, possible.

I only hope that this makes more people realize that we cannot be complacent. That we have to show up for all elections. That we have to push for more progressives to run in local races. The one thing that I do give Republicans their due is that they've always hustled to make sure that their base is always voting and always running for office. Dems should have always been doing that. We might have prevented some of the other tactics like gerrymandering had we not allowed so many local races to run unopposed. Fight for progressive politics in small towns and rural areas. Stop relying so much on the weight of large cities to carry Dem votes.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

In general the US avoids jailing ex-presidents. Personally I think that there should be punishment for flagrantly violating the law but the ruling class doesn’t agree with me. You shouldn’t be throwing people in prison for policy differences or as an exercise of political power. Normally Trump would be safe from being jailed. I think that the NY state people will be going hard to hold him accountable for his financial misdeeds but that’s money not prison. The thing about Trump that may end up with him sitting in prison is that he is a criminal, though that wouldn’t normally suffice, and that he won’t shut up. If he keeps stirring up shit, especially violent shit, the people in charge might actually decide to put him where he belongs. That’s all assuming that he loses of course.
posted by rdr at 2:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I only hope that this makes more people realize that we cannot be complacent. That we have to show up for all elections.

Also would be helpful if the candidate was forthcoming with a platform, a plan, solutions, ideas, anything other than "You wouldn't make the same mistake twice would you?"

The people who phone banked, canvassed, organized, etc. did way more work than the candidates. We're barely hanging on at this point and it's all down to marginalized people showing up to shovel shit for the people who continue take them for granted anyway. Is the Dem base worse than the Trumplodytes? Not by a long, long, long way. But we're pretty terrible even still.
posted by tzikeh at 2:22 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

(I'm so angry that I checked the news. I'm so angry that I let myself believe in the AZ call, and I actually experienced happiness for the first time in over four years. It felt foreign, but wonderful. I had two hours when I felt myself coming back after a long absence during which I was just a closed-off placeholder for the person I was. And now this. I wish I'd never looked at all. Checking in before it's all over was never going to change anything and whatever the outcome is I'll hear about it. Stupid, stupid, stupid.)
posted by tzikeh at 2:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

Technically there's no law against it.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how we wound up with President Air Bud.
posted by Grangousier at 2:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

TwoStride, I was thinking of dropping this earlier Bree Newsome Bass tweet in here: "Again, there’s this constant effort to frame the narrative in ways that avoid examination of white identity politics."

Last week's episode of the Intersectionality Matters podcast deconstructed some aspirational het masculine posturing that I suspect many white men could relate to. It's Episode 29, Black men for trump? the overdue conversation on patriarchy & misogynoir in black politics. One section was about some Black men's aspirations to join or replace white men in status quo hierarchies; a gay Black man, remembering the first time he realized as a kid that being a boy meant that socially speaking, he was better than girls and women. A similar panel of white men talking about ideas of white manhood, and how that relates to political choices, would be fascinating.

Just a reminder that Biden is ahead by 3 million and received more votes for president than anyone in history.

The EC has to go.
posted by adept256 at 2:57 PM on November 4

In 2000, union organizer Jane McAlevey's AFL-CIO bosses sent her to Florida for the Bush v. Gore recount. She and other organizers took people's affidavits about their screwed-up ballots -- tens of thousands of people who wanted to hit the streets. National Dem leadership told her and the others to stand down, to trust the process/law. We know how that turned out. McAlevey, who regularly trains workers in how to achieve +90% strike turnout and win (sometimes against way asymmetrical odds, like "strikes are illegal") -- she thinks if our side had turned out massively as we wanted to, we'd have seized the narrative, and got our President Gore. We can win if we grassroots organize using specific techniques that fascists tried to beat & murder out of our side in the 1930s, use them to push National Dem leadership to fucking lead. (Contact me if you want to know what those techniques are.)

McAlevey on the Electoral College: "When you're all taking to the streets to force the count to continue, . . . the role of street protest is to reinforce the idea that this has not been a fair process & we've gotta make it fair. While you're out there at those protests, bring your clipboards & pens & start signing people up & gathering their names & building the movement, cuz there's gonna be a lot of people out there with you. . . bring a petition that you type up that says "We're done with the Electoral College. We want majority rule not minority rule." Start getting people to sign that petition. Make sure you get their cell phone number & email. . . . You know how many times I go to an action & people go "Wow so many people there I never saw before," & I go, "Great, did you all have clipboards & petitions for people to sign?" Cuz if you say "Sign your name if you're interested in building socialism," not an effective strategy. "Do you want to be done with the Electoral College once and for all? Sign this petition," you're gonna get signatures & potential contacts to follow up with, not just for hte next day's action, which we're gonna need cuz this thing's going to go on for a while, but to end the Electoral College, which we must end."
posted by cybercoitus interruptus at 2:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [48 favorites]

Tzikeh, I'm sorry but I'm lost. Did something just get reported? Or are you talking about when they had called AZ last night?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 2:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

NotTheRedBaron: Arizona's ongoing counting is narrowing Biden's lead and it appears mathematically possible that Trump could turn out to have won the state.

It certainly seems like the call was made too early, but not all outlets called it.
posted by mathw at 2:42 AM on November 5, 2020

NotTheRedBaron - there isn't one state remaining to call that Trump couldn't quite plausibly win. He could be re-elected. I had taken in Michigan early today, and then the call for AZ, and I had felt happy, which I have not felt even a little for the last four years. It was indescribable, the feeling of returning to yourself. I felt it as if it were a tangible thing that was happening *to* me. The feeling of experiencing a long, long dormant state of being that changes everything about you - how you stand, how you talk, how you listen, how you think. And now that's gone and we're on a razor's edge with no comfort to be had anywhere and I'm in agony.
posted by tzikeh at 2:59 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

The Graunian has this to say about Arizona on the live blog. I hope the links below will still work and point to the correct place:

Arizona: 11 electoral votes
Called for Biden by AP and Fox News, but seems still in play.
Biden leads 50.5-48.1, with 86% counted.
Trump needs to win nearly two-thirds of the remaining votes.
Next update: Expected Thursday night local time

(src)

There's also this quoted by a previous iteration of the live blog: from AZCentral, which said a batch of recently counted ballots favoured Trump by roughly the same margin that he needed for all of the remaining votes. In other words, if the trend in that single batch can be extrapolated, it is "mathematically possible" for a Trump win. Notice that it was a "Republican pollster" talking up the possibilities; everyone else just acknowledged it's going to be close and waited.
posted by runcifex at 3:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

According to Nate Silver, the batch of AZ votes that helped Trump were different from the rest (late arriving mail in ballots that lean Republican).
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Yes, though to be slightly more precise, my understanding from various tweets is that tonight's AZ batch will be a lot like the two that have helped Trump, and THEN the remaining ones may be less damaging to Biden's lead.
posted by daisyace at 4:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I'm excited for Oregon's new drug laws and how that could be a model for what defunding the police could look like. People don't want to be drug addicts, it really sucks. You don't need to punish people make them want to change. Just meet them where they are and let them know there's a pathway, whenever they're ready. And then fund that pathway using the money saved from policing and the prison system.

We need to show people what defunding the police might mean, and I think that's what we're about to see.

*afaik there are no funding changes, but alot of money will be saved on enforcement and prisons.
posted by adept256 at 4:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

Unfortunately, with a guy like Trump it is really easy to get his wife and daughter confused, ugh.

Maybe that's what they mean when they say he is a Biblical leader.
posted by acb at 4:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

The gap in Georgia is only 18,000 votes.
posted by medusa at 5:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

National Dem leadership told her and the others to stand down, to trust the process/law.

Values neutral governance is like catnip to liberals.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:09 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

>Another 30 minutes? Hell, I'm going to bed.

They're facing an armed, angry mob. I'm cutting them some slack.

For the record, I was speaking of my own physical ability to stay awake, and not casting dispersion on the counters for their delay. Cut me a little slack as well, please.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:09 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

The AJC reports 51,000 outstanding absentee ballots in Georgia. That would be JUST enough to give Biden the lead assuming they have the same distribution they've had for the past 24 hours.
posted by Room 101 at 5:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

18,000 votes and, if you believe NYT data, 4% left remaining to count. Trending towards a flip.

Also, Perdue looks to be about to drop below 50.0, which means a runoff in January. The two GA senate runoffs will likely determine Senate control. Runoffs are generally bad for Dems, but these are not normal times.
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Pennsylvania is also looking good.
posted by medusa at 5:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Whether the GOP Can Stop Voters From Legally Fixing Rejected Mail-In Ballots Could Decide the Election
posted by lalochezia at 5:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Various things are being reported, numbers wise in GA. This AJC reporter says 18,500 gap, 25,000 absentee ballots remaining, and they should be finished by noon today. Then someone in the replies says only 8,000 new votes were reported this morning, and the reporter says yes he thinks there's a lag as those start to come in, and another person suggests that means the gap could be smaller. And then more numbers about vote totals get questioned in further replies.
posted by cashman at 5:14 AM on November 5, 2020

Yeah if the NYT is right there are 200k ballots left in Georgia.

Don't know if NYT is wrong or twitter reporter is wrong.
posted by medusa at 5:14 AM on November 5, 2020

The Oatmeal capturing my mood exactly

It's a Twitter link but it's the only one I could find, and I wanted to find a post by the original artist
posted by andrewesque at 5:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I guess it's "counted" versus "reported" that is the issue here. Also unless they changed the time, I think Georgia officials were set to do a 10:30 AM press conference. But I suppose if they think they'll finish the count by noon, they'd just do it then.
posted by cashman at 5:17 AM on November 5, 2020

Protect The Results says "WE’RE NOT ACTIVATING NATIONAL MOBILIZATIONS YET — BUT BE READY". And the detail page for at least one mobilization says:

The Protect the Results national coalition has created tools & trainings on protest coordination, de-escalation & street smarts, & how to sustain political pressure. The best way to prepare is to gather your closest people — friends, family, colleagues, allies — the ones you want to be with on the streets, or collaborating with remotely. Start talking now to plan how you will work together to participate in defending democracy:

...Visit the mobilization resources from the national coalition, including the toolkit and key dates and definitions...

Also: the Run For Something homepage has some inspiring headlines, such as "Democrats gain big edge on San Diego City Council" and "Democrats secure supermajority in [Delaware] state Senate with two flips". Through Run For Something I also found out about Chloe Maxmin who beat a longtime Republican incumbent for a state Senate seat in Maine. Maxmin started her climate activism at age 12 and has continued to work on climate change issues as a legislator in Maine's House of Representatives. This interview is interesting:

You sponsored a bill in the state legislature that was seen as Maine's version of a Green New Deal. It actually ended up passing the state legislature ... with a lot of workforce protections. Even if this bill didn't include everything that you initially wanted, everyone is wondering how you got the Maine AFL-CIO on board. ... what kind of lessons can organizers elsewhere learn from your success?

And -- connected to Run For Something -- if you are beginning to think of running for local office in 2021, "Where Can I Run" shows you what offices you could run for.
posted by brainwane at 5:18 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

#1. There are enough votes left for Biden in PA. At this point he needs to win 61% of the vote to win and 63.5% to exceed the 1% recount threshold. There are still 800K votes left to count and a differential of 164K between the candidates, still principally coming from blue countes based on reporting and population.

#2. There are enough votes left for Biden in GA. At this point he needs to win 55% to win and 65.9% to exceed the recount threshold. There are still 232K votes left to count with a differential of 23K for the win.
posted by Nanukthedog at 5:18 AM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

Nanukthedog thanks for the analysis!
posted by medusa at 5:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

HBO has had a partnership with Sesame Street for awhile now. What I need at this moment is a TV-MA-rated PSA. When that angry mob shouts “Stop the count!” then our favorite vampire steps out and says, “I don’t think so, motherfuckers!”
posted by Monochrome at 5:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

I thought this early morning summary from 538 clarified where things stand.

Overnight, both Georgia and Arizona tightened some but are still led by Trump and Biden, respectively. While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:22 AM on November 5, 2020

Ok why are we seeing 232,000 votes to count in GA but then 25,000 votes to count in GA?

How many votes are there?
posted by Fleebnork at 5:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The problem is that there are differing estimates of how much of the vote is left to report in Georgia: some would point to a Biden win in the state, others to a Trump win.
posted by Panthalassa at 5:25 AM on November 5, 2020

Per Nate Silver on Twitter, citing the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, there are 51k untallied absentee ballots in GA; Biden needs to win them 68–32 which is apparently 'very doable'.
posted by Panthalassa at 5:29 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Fleebnork: I've seen it suggested that there are ~232K votes left to be reported.
~209K of those have been counted but not yet reported.
~23K of those have not yet been counted or reported.

I am not an expert - just reporting what I have read.
posted by syzygy at 5:30 AM on November 5, 2020

I am not an expert - just reporting what I have read.

Link?
posted by mcstayinskool at 5:33 AM on November 5, 2020

Ok, thank you. It was just very confusing with two people posting within a few minutes of each other with vastly differing numbers of votes. As a GA resident, I'm on pins and needles.
posted by Fleebnork at 5:33 AM on November 5, 2020

It's a Spanish word; the ignorance and arrogance of Anglo settlers doesn't mean their mispronunciation is the correct way to say it.

By that token, Detroit (which is a French name) should be pronounced “day-twa”.
posted by acb at 5:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

Georgia, Pennsylvania - I just want to tell you both, good luck.We're all counting on you.
posted by glaucon at 5:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

mcstayinskool: It's slipped off into the ether of my Twitter timeline history, but I will do my best to find it for you.
posted by syzygy at 5:36 AM on November 5, 2020

Here's the latest AJC article, tweeted by their reporter Greg Bluestein 20 minutes ago. The opening paragraphs:

Over 51,000 absentee ballots remained to be counted in Georgia on Thursday as Joe Biden pulled within about 18,500 votes of President Donald Trump.

Most of these uncounted absentee ballots are concentrated in highly populated areas, led by Fulton County in Atlanta and Chatham County in Savannah.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution found the number of outstanding absentee ballots by comparing how many absentee ballots have been counted with how many absentee ballots have been returned to county election officials. These figures are publicly available from the secretary of state’s website.

More at the link.
posted by cashman at 5:37 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Per Julian Routh on Twitter, there are around 448k mail-in ballots left to count in PA; Biden also needs to win these by around 68–32 and he won the most recent batch of mail-in ballots in PA by 73–27.
posted by Panthalassa at 5:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Let's say Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, AND Pennsylvania. What kind of cake would we be looking at? Some kind of dulce de leche-German chocolate-peach cobbler hybrid?
posted by medusa at 5:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Being Latino I accept Los Angeles as Lahss An-jealous. (Although the local pronunciation of Los Feliz Street in Los Angeles grates my ear)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

What kind of cake would we be looking at? Some kind of dulce de leche-German chocolate-peach cobbler hybrid?

AZ and Nev have legal weed now, so make a peach cobbler with a German chocolate glaze. And use healthy doses of cannabutter.
posted by glaucon at 5:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Let's say Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, AND Pennsylvania. What kind of cake would we be looking at? Some kind of dulce de leche-German chocolate-peach cobbler hybrid?

This is why cupcakes are a thing.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

If you want something else to do for an hour or two, take a break in MetaTalk? We're talking about who should play Columbo if there's a reboot....

More good news: Democrats blocked a Republican supermajority in Wisconsin's legislature, preserving the Democratic governor's ability to veto legislation, and it looks like Michigan's Supreme Court has flipped to 4-3 Democrat.
posted by brainwane at 5:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

If I look at 538, I see 253 for Biden, while on the Guardian (I am UK based) I see 264. I know which one I want to be right, but...?
posted by Myeral at 5:44 AM on November 5, 2020

Myeral, it's all about the Arizona call/non-call. Fox News also has it at 264, since they've stuck with the Arizona call, at least for now.
posted by clawsoon at 5:46 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Interestingly, a tie is still possible if Trump wins PA, NC, AZ, and NV, but loses GA.
posted by swift at 5:47 AM on November 5, 2020

You misspelled terrifying
posted by cashman at 5:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [41 favorites]

Jason Isbell on Twitter: Biden could still pull off the historical sweep of every state Steve Miller has been to in Keep On Rockin Me Baby

This was my favorite comment of the day yesterday, but now that the song's been running through my head for the last 12 hours I've started to rethink that.
posted by Mchelly at 5:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

New study finds psilocybin greatly and quickly relieves depression

academic source JAMA Psychiatry

Legalization was on the ballot in DC and it passed. For a generation the War on Drugs slammed the breaks on any research into this, and what a shame, it could really help alot of people.

We're seeing the end of the war on drugs! Put that in the good news box!
posted by adept256 at 5:52 AM on November 5, 2020 [36 favorites]

So the McSally to Kelly flip should have Kelly immediately seated thereby narrowing the margin of the majority for what McConnell might be able to do before January.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 5:56 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

By that token, Detroit (which is a French name) should be pronounced “day-twa”.

That kind of thinking gets you Versailles, Ky (pronounced “VER-SAYLES”) and nobody wants that.
posted by leotrotsky at 5:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

That kind of thinking gets you Versailles, Ky (pronounced “VER-SAYLES”) and nobody wants that.

Yes, just down the road from me is Villa Rica, GA, pronounced VILL-uh RICK-uh. (ugh)
posted by Fleebnork at 6:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

And then there's Peru, Indiana (PEE-roo)

Why would you

Just why
posted by saturday_morning at 6:02 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

And Calais, Maine.
posted by Melismata at 6:04 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Friendly nudge, I know these local pronunciations are fun but let's not drive off into having dozens of them; it'd be fine to go chat about this somewhere else, eg Chat or a Metatalk. Please stick to election results in here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 6:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

Actually, Versailles is pronounced that way, but I guess that such vids are another reason to wholeheartedly disregard mispronunciation right now.

And : French people are rooting for you ! You're going to make it !
posted by nicolin at 6:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Thanks clawsoon, it makes sense now. I personally think it'd be better to stay with the conservative number until sure, because the dashing of hope is too cruel
posted by Myeral at 6:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Georgia, Pennsylvania - I just want to tell you both, good luck.We're all counting on you.

Election workers - I just want to tell you all, thank you. You're all counting for us.
posted by jaduncan at 6:09 AM on November 5, 2020 [48 favorites]

They aren't technically related, but the whole "red shift" and "blue shift" thing feels better if you consider how those phrases are used in astronomy. Measuring the redshift, i.e. how much longer the wavelengths are, is how you know how fast something is moving away from you. A blueshift happens when the object is moving towards you.

Red receding, blue approaching. I approve.
posted by bcd at 6:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

Things also redshift as they fall into a black hole.
posted by notoriety public at 6:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

More good news: "Tarra Simmons Becomes First Person Formerly Convicted Of A Felony Elected To Washington State Legislature":

A former nurse who served 20 months in prison after her drug habit led to her being arrested three times in 2011, Simmons went to law school in August 2014, a little over a year after she was released. Though she graduated with honors in May 2017, she was denied the bar the month before because of her felony convictions, setting up a showdown in the state Supreme Court which resulted in a same-day unanimous decision in her favor.

Northern California voters approved Proposition RR to support Caltrain with increased sales taxes, passing the supermajority threshold necessary.

California also "upheld several criminal justice changes, endorsing recent efforts to ease mass incarceration by reducing penalties and allowing for earlier releases."

San Francisco voters approved Proposition E which abolishes mandatory staffing levels for police.

And "Two HUGE resuts in Georgia: Dems have flipped the sheriff's offices in Cobb & Gwinnett counties (pop: 1.6 million)" -- "what these results mean is the end of ICE's 287(g) program in two of the biggest counties it exists in. i can't overstate how big this is. and the activism it took to push the candidates to address this."
posted by brainwane at 6:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [58 favorites]

I work for the Department of Defense. I am firmly prepared to be Schedule F'd and fired the day before the election. I cannot even begin to describe how miserable the last four years have been as someone under President Trump's thumb.

I know it sounds silly, but I have always had faith in the United States as a whole. I'm a Catholic, white minority that grew up in the Mississippi Delta, and I've seen some of the most systemic white supremacist bullshit possible.

This year was different. No matter what the results were, I watched people stand up and say 'no more' loudly and proudly. I want to believe in Georgia, if only for all the people I know there that voted for Biden and the sacrifices they made to get to this point. I saw lines of angry but proud white and black people taking hours off of work to vote in person in Mississippi.

I keep hoping that it is enough. It should not be this close.
posted by gwydapllew at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [55 favorites]

Brainwane thanks for these and your science fiction.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 6:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Here (nitter link) is Nate Cohn's (NYTimes/Upshot) morning update on the situations in GA/PA.
posted by iceberg273 at 6:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I was just listening to an audiobook version of the Sherlock Holmes story “The Priory School,” and I nearly jumped out of my skin when I heard the line, “...and now on Thursday morning we are as ignorant as we were on Tuesday.”
posted by The Underpants Monster at 6:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Let's say Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, AND Pennsylvania. What kind of cake would we be looking at? Some kind of dulce de leche-German chocolate-peach cobbler hybrid?

That sounds fucking delicious.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 6:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

538
Aaron Bycoffe
Nov. 5, 9:17 am

Philadelphia is now reporting an overall margin of about 360,000 votes for Biden, extending his lead there by about 17,000 votes, compared to yesterday. Along with a batch of Montgomery County votes, about 73 percent of which went to Biden, Trump’s lead in the state is now down to about 140,000 votes.
posted by medusa at 6:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

More 538

It looks like another 20,000 or so votes have come in from Philadelphia, and they broke 92 percent for Biden. Along with about 9,000 votes from deep-blue Montgomery County that broke 73 percent for Biden, this cut Trump’s statewide advantage from 2.6 percentage points to 2.3 points. It might seem wild that the Philadelphia tranche of votes could be that Democratic, but look at this way: Philadelphia usually votes around 80 percent (or a little higher) for Democratic presidential candidates. Clinton, for example, won 82 percent of the county’s votes in 2016. Right now, Biden is at about 80 percent in Philadelphia. But we also know that voters who used mail-in ballots were more likely to be Democrats, so you’re talking about the most Democratic votes out of a strongly Democratic-leaning pool of voters.
posted by medusa at 6:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

This isn't going to go fast but at this point PA seems inevitable barring a huge number of ballots being throw out for some sort of technical issue. GA seems likely although it's liable to be close and a lot depends on whether there are counted by not reported number of 60,000+ which combined with the 25,000 remaining uncounted ballots. Based upon the trend lines there in terms of the releases thus far I think barring some malarkey from GA Secretary of State.

I'm seeing too much doom posting about AZ to know what's up either way since it's hard to determine exactly how the remaining Maricopa ballots will go and whether there are remaining ballots to be counted in Pima (or maybe even Apache). Nevada seems to be taking there time but Las Vegas is where the bulk of the remaining votes are and it's fairly reliable. The caveat being with all the entertainment people in Vegas maybe there is a desire to stick with Trump's ignore the COVID problem?
posted by vuron at 6:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Leaked footage from the WH as Nevada results trickle in.
posted by rosiroo at 6:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

I'd love to know more about happy school board/trustee election results around the country if anyone can share their local results? For instance, in Portland, Maine, Yusuf Yusuf won a seat -- he is "a mental health case manager who came to the United States as a refugee from Somalia more than a decade ago" and supports removing School Resource Officers from Portland schools. I'd love to hear about local results where new school board members/trustees have been elected on platforms of decarcerating schools, increasing inclusion for trans kids, and lowering obstacles/stigmas for free meals at schools...
posted by brainwane at 6:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

Where is the WH daycare facility? In the Oval Office or did they set up one in the old bowling alley?

I expect Republican money people are already writing off Trump instead of spending good money after bad when using that money on any pending GA runoffs would be more useful. Hopefully Democrats are willing to blanket the cities with pro Warnock (and Ossoff if Purdue drops below 50%). I wonder what GOTV will be like in a special election if Republicans are dispirited by Trump likely losing.
posted by vuron at 6:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Interestingly, a tie is still possible if Trump wins PA, NC, AZ, and NV, but loses GA.

please no torture math
posted by medusa at 6:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

I wonder what GOTV will be like in a special election if Republicans are dispirited by Trump likely losing.

I imagine it'd depend a lot on how Trump governs (or declines to govern) as a lame duck, the SCOTUS Obamacare case, how bad COVID gets over the winter... in other words, completely unpredictable right now.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Biden's on track to win the popular vote by at least 5-6 million, right? Just in California he's on track for another 2 million votes in excess of Trump, if the current ratio holds. Unless my math is off due to lack of sleep

“day-twa”

At least let it be deh-twa. Deh, like meh. Like destiny. Or dental care. You can do it, English speakers!
posted by trig at 6:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

This was my favorite comment of the day yesterday, but now that the song's been running through my head for the last 12 hours I've started to rethink that.

Try this earworm cure; normally I would keep this to myself, but we need to stick together at this time of crisis.
posted by thelonius at 6:56 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Final tallies in CA take forever but yeah Biden will likely be running up the score there. I don't know if all the House seats have been allocated yet though. San Diego and OC always seem to take their sweet time.
posted by vuron at 6:56 AM on November 5, 2020

Merriam-Webster's Word of the Year: torture math
posted by oulipian at 7:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Metafilter: You can do it, English speakers!
posted by gwydapllew at 7:03 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I feel like Doomscrolling is much more likely to be WOTY
posted by vuron at 7:06 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

please can we stop with the pronunciations haggling in this room
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Raphael Warnock eats pizza with a fork and knife, guys.
posted by trig at 7:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

And : French people are rooting for you ! You're going to make it !"

Actually, I meant : you're going to get rid of Trump - was that unclear ?

This was inspired by my daughter who was jumping all over the place at lunchbreak because all her friends support Joe Biden and the results seemed quite good.
posted by nicolin at 7:09 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

We could take a lesson from the French. When they "votez escroc, pas facho" they send their right wing nutjob candidates packing by overwhelmingly large margins.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Sure, but in Trump we had both escroc and facho.
posted by Liesl at 7:13 AM on November 5, 2020

"Vote for the conservative, not the fascist” could be a description of 2020, if one discards the contemporary tribal meanings of the word “conservative”.
posted by acb at 7:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Philadelphia leftist here — fwiw, everyone I know voted Democrat, and every single one of them voted via mail-in ballot dropped off at a drop box.
posted by lazaruslong at 7:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

I'd like to thank Wisconsin voters for making the margin wide enough that we haven't had to hear about any mysteriously-materializing spreadsheets from Crucial Waukesha County this time around.
posted by Not A Thing at 7:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

If I were queen of the world, I would make a law that says that any Nate tweeting about how many votes are left in which counties and how blue and red those counties are compared to the rest of the state need to end every single tweet with "...and if that holds, the results would be CANDIDATE by around X%"
posted by lampoil at 7:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I'm pretty sure we can thank Foxconn for Wisconsin
posted by jordemort at 7:18 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

We could take a lesson from the French. When they "votez escroc, pas facho" they send their right wing nutjob candidates packing by overwhelmingly large margins.

Also Louisiana, 1991, Edwards v. Duke: Unofficial bumpers stickers read "Vote for the crook: it's important."
posted by gimonca at 7:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

lazaruslong: According to NPR, Philly results are only 80% tabulated, so there's probably enough votes between that, the remaining votes in Allegheny Country and the Philly suburbs to push Biden over the top. I have a good feeling!
posted by SansPoint at 7:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

NYT's Nate Cohn with an article summarizing how things stand in the remaining undecided states: Biden Appears to Hold Edge in the Key Votes Left to Be Counted.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 7:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Here in Georgia a rejected ballot can be fixed, if the voter makes contact with their country registrars office and goes through a verification process to fix the problem.

The list of rejected votes can found on a map and it's been cool to see neighborhood Facebook chats posting the info and trying to find/contact the person in the neighborhood with the rejected ballot.

It's only about 1500 ballots, but every vote literally counts.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 7:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

I wonder what GOTV will be like in a special election if Republicans are dispirited by Trump likely losing.

I think the left would dispirited, if it happened to us. I think they will be outraged, because they’ll have been hearing about how the election was stolen from them for three months.
posted by schadenfrau at 7:29 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Trump 'major announcement' to come at a Las Vegas press conference 11:30 AM EST; this article says it is that he is filing a lawsuit challenging the NV vote.
posted by thelonius at 7:29 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Is anyone filing a lawsuit against the Trump administration about them attempting to deny US citizens their voting rights?

Asking for 71 million (and counting) friends.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 7:31 AM on November 5, 2020 [45 favorites]

Also Louisiana, 1991, Edwards v. Duke: Unofficial bumpers stickers read "Vote for the crook: it's important."

I had completely forgotten that this was the first gubernatorial election I was old enough to vote in, and it was a choice between a previously-elected career criminal and an avowed, active white supremacist; and now we have both in one candidate. The future is amazing!

Later this morning, I'm supposed to talk about humanism and the emergence of opera in the early 17th c., and let me tell you all, I am just not in any kind of head space to be talking about that today. I sure do hope that Donald Trump stops occupying rent-free space in my head soon.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:31 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Trump 'major announcement' to come at a Las Vegas press conference 11:30 AM EST; this article says it is that he is filing a lawsuit challenging the NV vote.

It could be Infrastructure Week
posted by Mchelly at 7:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [58 favorites]

Regarding Pennsylvania's mail-in votes, note that the votes that are being counted are almost definitely much fewer than they should be. 372,000 ballot applications were rejected over a technicality. Returned ballot rejection rates were between 4-8.4% in some of the most highly-populated majority-Democratic counties in the 2018 midterms.
posted by trig at 7:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

If you are following This handy NYT election scraper it is marking how the totals change and then marking the percentage of remaining ballots that are required for Biden or Trump to flip the state from it's current leader. Now vote remaining total is estimated so take these % with a grain of salt but per their numbers Biden is down to requiring about 54% of the remaining ballots in order to win GA (which seems easily doable based upon the trend line and where the remaining ballots appear to be clustered geographically.

Biden is currently estimated to need approximately 61% of the remaining PA ballots which considering he's averaging about 75% of the blocks released thus far should result in a pretty decent margin which would almost certainly be outside of a recount making a difference.

Nevada and Arizona are frighteningly close in terms of the % Trump would need to win in order to flip those states but people with more insights into the geographic locations of the remaining ballots seem to be quietly confident of the likely outcomes.

I'd really like to get this resolved sooner rather than later because I sort of fear that the Trump conspiracy theories plus the high degree of ultra-partisanship might result in individuals or small groups being willing to take extreme measures "in order to preserve democracy" or whatever is the MAGA equivalent since conservatives are increasingly willing to entertain the idea that they'd rather not have democracy. Twitter and most of the regular media outlets seem to be trying to tamp down the conspiracy theories but I have zero confidence in Facebook policing conservative communities to avoid amplifying these conspiracy theories.
posted by vuron at 7:40 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

McAlevey on the Electoral College: "When you're all taking to the streets to force the count to continue, . . . the role of street protest is to reinforce the idea that this has not been a fair process & we've gotta make it fair. While you're out there at those protests, bring your clipboards & pens & start signing people up & gathering their names & building the movement, cuz there's gonna be a lot of people out there with you

I have no doubt that the Women's March the day of the inauguration was the seed from which Trump's defeat (TTTCS) is sprouting.
posted by Gelatin at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

It's only about 1500 ballots, but every vote literally counts.

You know, maybe my engagement with voting news and information is higher than other peoples, but MISSING signatures?? The most important election in decades and folks can't be fucking bothered to double check their ballot? It's not as if the instructions, the postings, the texts, the communications about how to vote/how to fill out your ballot have been few and far between. Christ, I voted in person and must have checked my ballot six times before putting it in the machine, to make absolutely certain that I didn't accidentally fill in the bubble for Trump (because maybe my lying eyes did deceive me).

I am so on edge right now. I'm trying to keep it together and am really, really nervous that Trump will find a way to win by a hair. I can't take much more of this.
posted by sundrop at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

WXYZ: FACT CHECK: A video claiming to show voter fraud and a wagon being loaded outside of the TCF Center in Detroit is actually video of a WXYZ photographer loading his camera and other gear into a wagon for work.
posted by cashman at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

Is anyone filing a lawsuit against the Trump administration about them attempting to deny US citizens their voting rights?

I don't read Trump Twitter, but I saw a screenshot from two days ago where he literally said that lots of people voted for him so the count must be stopped so that they are not 'disenfranchised'. I didn't realize that I was 'disenfranchised' in 1988, when my vote for Dukakkis was rendered meaningless by the counting of Bush votes!
posted by thelonius at 7:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

I want to believe all these projections, but after all the misses by the various statistical models, I'll only be comfortable until the remaining states are called.
posted by elwoodwiles at 7:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

Metafilter: I’d like to believe all these projections
posted by glaucon at 7:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Trump 'major announcement' to come at a Las Vegas press conference 11:30 AM EST;

Stay safe everyone. Twitter has been putting a warning and covering his tweets that are lies and misleading information about the election, so I guess he's decided to do this so he can get his nonsense out to the masses. Somebody with the ability to, needs to interrupt him or talk over him or do something if he starts (really its continues) saying crazy untrue things and trying to further spur people to commit heinous acts against pollworkers specifically and our democracy generally. I do feel like most people can spot him in sore loser mode, but inevitably some of his followers may take this as a call to action. Protect yourselves and be wary accordingly. This thing isn't over at all.
posted by cashman at 7:46 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Best election map I've seen yet: Here's what we know so far.
posted by taz at 7:46 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

Ok this AZ-GA-NV-PA cake project is looking viable. Apparently Georgia is all about the peaches. Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona peeps can you give me your opinion on most representative state cake preferences?
posted by medusa at 7:47 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Also, the winner of this election is already clear, and it's capitalism. Polling itself demonstrates this: polling as an industry stopped being reliable (or even viable) years ago, when personal communication stopped being tethered to homes--but it was bullshit even before that, because we have a very thorough and reliable method of polling Americans, called "elections". Making money by trying to count votes before they're actually cast is just capitalism doing what it does, talking a cultural behavior and commodifying it while adding little to no actual value.

All the billions of dollars spent on this presidential campaign do not appear to have moved any needles much at all, and thus were mostly sound & fury signifying nothing; we would have voted mostly the same without any of it (did the Lincoln Project really convince any Trump voters to suddenly see the light or whatever?), and could have spent that money on much more useful things. Any change in vote totals is because of turnout, which is mostly catalyzed by volunteers.

And of course the news media is making a fortune even now, breathlessly covering a process that everyone knew ahead of time would take at least a few days, and filling air time talking about how completely wrong all of their conversation on air before this was, and how they think they'll be right about what they think might happen this time, and on and on and on.

Capitalism keeps winning, I just hope we can squeeze a Biden win out of this stupid process.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

That map of rejected Georgia ballots Brandon Blatcher posted is kind of odd. In the Atlanta metro area, there are dots that go right up to several of the county lines, and then zero dots in the adjacent counties. Douglas and Paulding counties, for example, appear to have zero rejected ballots, while Cobb County directly to the east has tons. It either looks like some counties aren't reporting rejected ballots, or maybe just aren't rejecting any at all?
posted by theodolite at 7:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Georgia Secretary of State currently addressing the press.

Basically: We take this seriously, no one here is participating in voter fraud, we're going to count every single vote.
posted by cooker girl at 7:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Oh, sorry, not the Secretary of State, but another vote official.
posted by cooker girl at 7:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I’m taking Trump speech before results announcement as proof Nevada isn’t going his way.

I could be wrong, but that’s how I am choosing to interpret that.
posted by glaucon at 7:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

By the time the results finally come in, I'm going to be a diabetic and an alcoholic.

I picked a bad week to give up sniffing glue.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 7:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

If Trump Tries To Sue His Way to Election Victory, Here’s What Happens - Talking Points Memo/ProPublica overview of the process of legal challenges to votes & counting, and a rundown (as of 6 pm last night Nov 4) of where the various Trump campaign suits seem to sit.
posted by soundguy99 at 7:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

As much as things are really stressful right now, there are a few things I'm thankful for:

- There was no widespread violence or voter intimidation on election day.
- There were no chaotic fuckups like what we saw in the Iowa caucus.
- The mainstream news media actually have learned something. The NYT of a few years ago would have plastered a massive TRUMP DECLARES VICTORY headline on Wednesday morning. Instead, they and other outlets are more or less ignoring his bullshit announcements.
posted by theodolite at 7:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [64 favorites]

I’m taking Trump speech before results announcement as proof Nevada isn’t going his way.

Unquestionably--dude is fundamentally lazy, if he were winning he'd be sitting on his ass in the White House, tweeting about it. He only gets up and moves around to play golf or to stop himself from losing (because in Trump's demented, funhouse-mirror mind, the worst thing any human being can ever be is a LOSER).

By the time the results finally come in, I'm going to be a diabetic and an alcoholic.

Yeah, this election has demonstrated to me that my personal worst substance abuse problem is sugar.
posted by LooseFilter at 7:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Medusa, what about funny cake for PA? It’s not actually a cake, it’s more of a cake-pie monstrosity, but that seems somehow appropriate. (To be fair, I hightailed out of PA for NY a decade ago, so I’m not technically a Pennsylvanian anymore, but to make up for that I’d be willing to share the family funny cake recipe...)
posted by okayokayigive at 7:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I am now imagining the twitter labels added to DJT's tweets are being read by Ron Howard. Eg:

DJT: "ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED!"

Label: "Some votes may still need to be counted".
posted by piyushnz at 7:58 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Way down ballot here in Indiana, but my state Senator flipped to blue. After weeks of ugly smears by his opponent, Fady Qaddoura will be the first Muslim in the Indiana state senate!

Unfortunately we did not get the sweep with Indiana house #5 going to R, but as we all know, overcoming gerrymandering is hard! Indiana's house delegation will be 7R to 2D.
posted by Dalton Luceria at 8:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

I really liked this from the transcript of On the Media’s livestream Tuesday, which I missed but want to watch:

BOB: We have learned so much about ourselves. And what I tell my kids is, "I can’t explain. I can’t understand. All I know is that everything I believed to my core about our society turned out to be wrong."

BROOKE: And, if I can just add a postscript, that is the good thing about the last four years. Is that we were either willfully or unconsciously ignorant of what the nation was. And now we know … We know who we are now … If we are complacent now, there’s no placing the blame elsewhere. It’s all perfectly clear. And we have a responsibility, and that is intensified. And that won’t go away — it wouldn’t have gone away with Biden, but it may have allowed many of us to think so. It might still allow many of us to think so. But the problems were always there, and they were horrendous. And now we know. And there’s something in that.
posted by glaucon at 8:02 AM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

From last hour: Georgia Senator David Perdue (R-Inc) has now fallen below the 50% mark. With outstanding ballots to be counted coming from primarily Democratic-leaning precincts, it is likely that Georgia will have two runoff races for U.S. Senate.
posted by cashman at 8:02 AM on November 5, 2020 [53 favorites]

Pour money into the runoffs people.
posted by aramaic at 8:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

I am now imagining the twitter labels added to DJT's tweets are being read by Ron Howard. Eg:
DJT: "ANY VOTE THAT CAME IN AFTER ELECTION DAY WILL NOT BE COUNTED!"
Label: "Some votes may still need to be counted".

I think twitter should let Cardi B WRITE them.
posted by sexyrobot at 8:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I've got cash that I was sending to local TX candidates weekly, I have no problem sending those dollars to GA to help flip the senate. No problem at all.
posted by emjaybee at 8:07 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Does anyone have a working link to the NYT Election Scraper Vuron posted above? That link didn’t work for me even when slicing and dicing it up a bit to remove what looks like extra characters.
posted by the thorn bushes have roses at 8:10 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Does anyone have a working link to the NYT Election Scraper Vuron posted above?

This should work. Took a couple of tries for me to get it right.
posted by god hates math at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Does anyone have a working link to the NYT Election Scraper Vuron posted above?

Here you go.
posted by penduluum at 8:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I need to not get my hopes up or I will jinx the election.
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Pour money into the runoffs people.

I have a question: I'm ready to do this. I sent LOTS of money (for me) to the close/turnable Senate races. Harrison, Gideon, Bullock, McGrath etc. The only tangible result seems to have been Kelly. And someone up thread says the big difference wasn't money but turnout.

So is there a better way than money, given that I'm not on the ground to knock on doors?
posted by Cocodrillo at 8:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

ABC in GA: "Chatham County Judge Bass is denying the request by the Trump Campaign and dismissing the petition against the Board of Registrars."
posted by cashman at 8:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

Volunteer your time to phone or text bank, or write letters to voters encouraging them to vote.
posted by thebotanyofsouls at 8:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

We failed to kick out our far-right Congressman. By a depressingly huge margin. This guy is so far up Trump’s ass he’s coming out his mouth.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:24 AM on November 5, 2020

I need to not get my hopes up or I will jinx the election.

I'm a lifelong Red Sox fan. In 1986, we were one strike away from winning the World Series. We did not win it.

So in 2004, we were ahead 3 games to 0. We were favored to win. I did not believe.

The fourth game started; I did not believe.

We were ahead 3-0 in the 9th; I did not believe.

We had two outs; I did not believe.

Édgar Rentería hit a ground ball that bounced back to Keith Foulke on the mound. Foulke threw it underhand to Doug Mientkiewicz at first base. I did not believe.

Mientkiewicz caught the ball. I did not believe.

Mientkiewicz held on to the ball. Then, I believed.
posted by Melismata at 8:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [56 favorites]

Get every nickle into whatever team Stacy Abrams is heading for this.
posted by cmfletcher at 8:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [44 favorites]

It’s Time for an Overhaul of House Democratic Leadership — The performance, strategy, and results were all wrong.

The failures of Democratic leadership have been profound, running what should have been a Democratic advantage into the ground. But the leadership class who came up with and pursued that strategy is made up entirely of centrists, who have spurned progressives at every turn, claiming to know better, forcing them to watch quietly as senior-ranking moderates managed nothing in terms of legislation over the past two years and orchestrated a disastrous campaign strategy. That should be evidence enough that Pelosi, Bustos, and her centrist acolytes who managed to survive election night should be relieved of their leadership positions. Progressives, meanwhile, didn’t lose any members from their ranks and now make up a larger percentage of the caucus than ever, have the only credible claim to leadership positions, and should do everything in their power to take them over ahead of what will be much more challenging terrain in 2022.

2020’s Biggest Losers: Probably Trump, Definitely Schumer — As Democrats fail to take the Senate, their leader’s performance merits some scrutiny.

As Bob Moser detailed in our pages in March, for many years now, Schumer has routinely selected a preferred Democratic candidate from a field of aspirants, funneling so much money to that candidate that opponents tend to drop out. Schumer’s choices are invariably centrists on the Democratic spectrum: Kansas’s Barbara Bollier, who lost by 12 points on Tuesday to Republican Roger Marshall, was until recently a Republican. M.J. Hegar, who fell by ten points to John Cornyn in Texas, voted in the Republican presidential primary as recently as 2016. [...]

Can Schumer plead not guilty on account of straight-ticket voting? To an extent. On the other hand, by handpicking candidates and driving their primary opponents from the field, he ensures that Democratic nominees aren’t really field-tested before they go up against Republican opponents. Schumer’s candidates all fit a milquetoast, don’t-make-waves stereotype that’s good for bossing them around inside the Senate Democratic caucus, but maybe not so much for inspiring people to vote. If you can discern any policy that this group actually ran on, let me know. [...]

Will the election’s outcome, Schumer’s second straight failed effort to take back the chamber, lead his Senate colleagues to seek to replace him as leader? As yet, no one has stepped forward to do that, and most of them may conclude it was unlikely that any of their candidates could have run far enough ahead of Biden in their states anyway. Senate Democrats may want to rethink their candidate selection process, however, letting voters rather than their own leader have more of a say in picking their nominee.

posted by tonycpsu at 8:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [34 favorites]

Capitalism keeps winning, I just hope we can squeeze a Biden win out of this stupid process.

This election was never going to be a widespread rejection of capitalism. But I’m hoping that what it may do is open a crack in the door for that to be possible somewhere down the road.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

If you cannot give to political candidates (perhaps because you are a foreign national?) then consider donation to the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, part of the Election Protection Coalition. "Help us ensure every eligible voter can cast a ballot."

More local news: Portland, Oregon approved a new police oversight board that would have the power to discipline or fire officers. And Gresham (near Portland) has just had a super close election for mayor. Travis Stovall:

appears to have won an extremely close election as the first African American mayor of Multnomah County’s second largest city, and the first Black mayor of any municipality in the Portland area, including the city of Portland.

Stovall, a long time Gresham resident, small business owner and community leader, captured 16,218 votes to 16,145 votes for second place finisher Eddy Morales, a difference of just 145 votes.

Gresham is a pretty white place!
posted by brainwane at 8:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

Get every nickle into whatever team Stacy Abrams is heading for this.

It's a funny thing, life... I was disappointed at the time that Abrams wasn't picked for VP, but now here we are with the fate of the nation about to rest on voter mobilization in Georgia, and she's got nothing but time on her hands.
posted by saturday_morning at 8:31 AM on November 5, 2020 [44 favorites]

It’s Time for an Overhaul of House Democratic Leadership — The performance, strategy, and results were all wrong.

My personal feeling is that even if the current leadership doesn’t deserve to lose power (not a debate I’m interested in), it would be better for the party if we did have new leadership. Fair or unfair, image matters.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 8:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Speaking of Oregon: Portland cops, backed up by county, state, and National Guard, beat the hell out of demonstrators again last night. I'm so mad/sad about how the city races turned out here, and about our supposedly-progressive city and state officials.
posted by curious nu at 8:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

> All the billions of dollars spent on this presidential campaign do not appear to have moved any needles much at all, and thus were mostly sound & fury signifying nothing

I still think Trump/NoTrump is a big thing that doesn't come about on its own. A big part of it is indeed sound and fury but I don't think that's all about it. Building a massive mandate while rejecting the very embodiment of Trumpism (TTTCS) is a great message that will resound. It's only sound and fury if we allow it to become so.

Granted the mind-boggling spending on campaigning is... pathological, but unfortunately that's not going to go away any time soon. I'd rather something good can grow out of it (NoTrump, TTTCS) vs. otherwise.
posted by runcifex at 8:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Medusa, what about funny cake for PA?

Oh fuck yes. This is the best thing I've heard in 2020. We'll make that monstrosity even more of a monstrosity.

Georgia Senator David Perdue (R-Inc) has now fallen below the 50% mark.

OH FUCK YES
posted by medusa at 8:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

The guy who ran Hillary Clinton's campaign went on to run the super PAC supporting Democrats in House elections. Why do these fucking people keep getting jobs?
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:37 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

It’s Time for an Overhaul of House Democratic Leadership — The performance, strategy, and results were all wrong.

2020’s Biggest Losers: Probably Trump, Definitely Schumer

It's surprising (and heartening) to see both these pieces in The American Prospect of all places. Before clicking through, I would have assumed they would have been published in Jacobin or Current Affairs.

So many unforced errors and jaw-dropping mistakes. Vote out the white supremacists (and the people who hug them) in every election possible moving forward.
posted by Ouverture at 8:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I believe Senate level candidates should, as a qualification, have done substantial work within their state that directly benefitted constituents. I say that because I think that’s how parties build strength: They directly improve people’s lives. Picking theoretically telegenic or demographically ideal candidates is a loser idea.
posted by argybarg at 8:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

The Democratic Super PAC in charge of House races is going to face serious questions about how it lost seats when projected to pick them up.

House Majority PAC’s president is Robby Mook.
posted by MrBadExample at 8:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I wish people would wait until the dust settles before starting the circular firing squad within the Democratic party. I do think there were definitely some missteps made in terms of house and senate races and let us be honest third party contributions were poorly directed towards emotional races rather than likely wins. I'd rather not go with the throw everyone out approach until I see evidence of gross incompetence.
posted by vuron at 8:43 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

> It's surprising (and heartening) to see both these pieces in The American Prospect of all places. Before clicking through, I would have assumed they would have been published in Jacobin or Current Affairs.

Perhaps you haven't been reading TAP much lately? They regularly tee off on the party for marginalizing progressives, labor, environmental policy, etc. They just do it in the spirit of cleaning up from the inside of the tent instead of burning it down from the outside.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I'm not going to be mad at Democrats when I can be mad at the fascist half of our country. It's real hard to make cogent arguments against a machine that can just lie.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 8:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [60 favorites]

Chatham County Judge Bass is denying the request by the Trump Campaign and dismissing the petition against the Board of Registrars.

In before Republicans.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 8:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

> I'm not going to be mad at Democrats when I can be mad at the fascist half of our country. It's real hard to make cogent arguments against a machine that can just lie.

¿Por qué no los dos? Unlike the fascist half, Democrats can change things for the better as long as they're empowered to do so and not operating with one hand tied behind their back being forced to appease the unappeasable by dinosaurs who still yearn for the days of bipartisan compromise. Conducting a swift post-mortem on the failure to ride Biden's coattails in Senate and House races is vital to ensuring that Biden can get things done in his first term.
posted by tonycpsu at 8:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

"...managed nothing in terms of legislation over the past two years..."

I don't even know what this means. In some alternate world some preferable speaker Mr Smith Goes To Washington'd the Senate into actually considering a bill? Plenty of reasons to question this performance, but this is credibility destroying for a critic. If you want to criticize something you need to understand it deeply and the incongruity behind that statement is too severe. Idealism has clouded everyone's judgment here. It's totally possible that a larger progressive agenda would fail while specific individual locations continue to elect progressives. I honestly don't see how you look at these election results as a broad trend and see a cause to revive the old "but ____ would've actually won because they're a true progressive!" arguments.
posted by feloniousmonk at 8:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

For lawyers, and anyone else who gets annoyed at the vagueness or inaccuracy of reporting (and tweeting) regarding the various election lawsuits,* the Stanford-MIT database behind the better articles is available to search and review. You can easily find the current status of any case. You can also look at all the cases for a particular state, and then sort by date filed (newest first) to get real updates on new cases filed, which will give you venue and case numbers, if you want to take a deeper dive.

*for example, when SCOTUS splits 4-4 on a case, describing the Court as having "rejected" the case is probably inaccurate, and is definitely misleading to the extent it suggests that the decision serves as precedent, or that the decision would be the same now that we have a ninth justice.
posted by mabelstreet at 8:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

One of my hobbies is attempting to fill up our entire garage with CDs bought by the skipload from eBay. One thing I've been doing in the last few days to destress while the election news comes trickling in is finally getting round to listening to some of the backlog that I've built up.

This morning, the needle landed on Steven Wilson's Hand. Cannot. Erase.

And it is mind-blowing.
posted by Cardinal Fang at 8:52 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

If this thread is going to turn into one more god-damned intra-Democratic Party warfare thread, I’m out of here, because they NEVER. CHANGE.
posted by argybarg at 8:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [38 favorites]

I'd rather not go with the throw everyone out approach until I see evidence of gross incompetence.

And I'd rather they stop sticking with the same old top-down conservative "let's not be too hasty in discarding this failed approach" approach.
posted by showbiz_liz at 8:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

"I was disappointed at the time that Abrams wasn't picked for VP, but now here we are with the fate of the nation about to rest on voter mobilization in Georgia, and she's got nothing but time on her hands."

This is the advantage of having a deep bench: lots of badasses waiting on the wings doing vital work well. The Dems need more of it.
posted by kaibutsu at 8:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

Folks please let's stick to election results in here.
posted by LobsterMitten (staff) at 8:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

Mientkiewicz held on to the ball. Then, I believed.

Flagged as fantastic.
posted by Gelatin at 9:03 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

What if the polls vs outcome disparity is a METRIC of the impact of massive voter suppression? USPS slowdown, ID laws, removal of drop off boxes, deregistering voters, e-voting machines that are hackable?
posted by rory at 9:03 AM on November 5, 2020 [49 favorites]

That election scraper says Arizona is going to be suuuuuper close.
posted by Dashy at 9:04 AM on November 5, 2020

Has that Trump press conference in Vegas somebody mentioned upthread happened yet? I was going to try to watch, but....can't.
posted by invincible summer at 9:07 AM on November 5, 2020

I think the Trump press conference in NV is in about 2h20m from now (11:30 MST).
posted by Alterscape at 9:09 AM on November 5, 2020

One thing I've been thinking of today is that the more it looks like Biden wins, the less Republicans need to be "loyal" to the crook in the White House. I'm less scared of the courts today than I was yesterday. McConnell and Pence have both made some space between themselves and Trump.

What if the polls vs outcome disparity is a METRIC of the impact of massive voter suppression? USPS slowdown, ID laws, removal of drop off boxes, deregistering voters, e-voting machines that are hackable?

Normally, I avoid all conspiracy theories like the plague, but the Trumpists have been saying out loud that they were trying to suppress votes. I hope this will be investigated, but I fear it won't because everyone just wants to move on.
posted by mumimor at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

From fivethirtyeight:

In its press conference in Las Vegas right now, Trump’s campaign is saying it’s are filing a lawsuit asking for a court injunction to stop vote counting due to “improper votes.” The campaign claims it has evidence of nonresidents voting in Nevada and that “we believe there are dead voters that have been counted.” Campaign members making the announcement are refusing to give their names to reporters there, saying “do your job, it’s pretty easy to find out.” They have not provided any evidence to back up their claims of “dead voters” or nonresidents voting.
posted by Literaryhero at 9:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

No it already happened. Basically a lot of whining and false accusations about mass vote fraud.
posted by logicpunk at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Has that Trump press conference in Vegas somebody mentioned upthread happened yet? I was going to try to watch, but....can't.

From the Guardian:

The Trump campaign held a press conference in Nevada, pushing baseless accusations of fraud in the state, where Joe Biden has a narrow lead.
When an MSNBC reporter pressed campaign adviser Ric Grennell on the accusations, he walked away from him.
Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence, would not even respond when another reporter asked for his name.
“You’re here to take in information,” Grenell responded.

posted by EndsOfInvention at 9:12 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

From Jon Ralston, minutes ago:
NEWS: First batch of new votes from NV, from Clark, shows Biden lead up to 12K.

Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.
posted by miguelcervantes at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

Ups, guess I was wrong about the presser time, sorry!
posted by Alterscape at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

> “You’re here to take in information,” Grenell responded.

That probably sounds more convincing in the original Russian.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [38 favorites]

Chris Potter, Politics/government editor for WESA-FM:" I am going to try to address some confusion about why Allegheny County is not going to begin counting 30,000+ ballots until tomorrow. People are going bonkers about this, or castigating hard-working employees on no sleep, and it is wrong." (thread)

The other 7 tweets:

(1) The ballots in question require special attention. The vast majority -- up to 29,000 -- involve a situation where a vendor sent the wrong ballots to voters, and had to reissue new ballots with the correct races. The challenge there is now voters have 2 ballots, one w/wrong races. (2) So you have to give those ballots special scrutiny to make sure that a) people don't vote twice, and b) if they just send in the old one, they don't vote in races they aren't eligible for. So you can't just scan them with the rest. (3) Other ballots in the pot include those that don't scan for whatever reason -- it's like when the ATM won't process the amount of the check you want to deposit, so you have to bring it into the bank office itself. (4) When ballots require special scrutiny, the county records the vote through a return board whose members are sworn in for that purpose. The board reviews the results tallied up by election workers after polls close, but also addresses provisional ballots, military ballots, etc. (5) ... And the board's members are set to be sworn in tomorrow, the Friday after E-day. I am told by the election department's solicitor that this date is a requirement of the Election Code. (6) There is nothing nefarious here: Be advised, Trump supporters, that county's GOP chair is comfortable with process. Nor is this a case of shiftless public workers taking a day off. This is longstanding process, and the county made clear how 29k would be handled well before E-day (7) This has been the most complicated election of my life, made worse here by a vendor error that sent the wrong ballots to thousands of voters in a hugely contentious environment. People are taking time to try to do it right. Don't make it harder.

posted by cashman at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [44 favorites]

One of the vote counting machines in Philly is named Hodor.

Hodor, Hodor.
posted by joeyh at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

They have not provided any evidence

They're staying consistent, at least.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

The Trump campaign held a press conference in Nevada, pushing baseless accusations of fraud in the state, where Joe Biden has a narrow lead.

Is that voting fraud? Or fraud in general? (Trump owns a resort or two in Nevada.)
posted by Cardinal Fang at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The Democrats can elevate AOC to Speaker and Ilhan Omar as Majority Whip and have the reanimated corpse of Che Guevera write all their legislation, but as long as Mitch McConnell is in charge of the Senate, they'll have exactly the same results in passing progressive legislation as Pelosi did. McConnell basically wouldn't bring anything passed by the Democratic House up for consideration -- no committee hearings, no floor speeches, nothing. Everything died on his table. (And counting on the so-called "liberal media" to portray the failure to govern as "partisan bickering" or Congressional gridlock," and not "Republican obstructionism," because accurately reporting what the Republicans do sounds biased.)

Which is why the runoff elections (TTTCS) in Georgia are going to be so important.
posted by Gelatin at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

but I fear it won't because everyone just wants to move on.

The thing is, I don't just want to move on...we did that after Obama was elected and it bit us in the ass. I do not want every election to be a nail-biter about whether we fall into full-on fascism. My heart can't take it, honestly. I don't think I'm alone in that.

Also, COVID is still happening. Children are still in cages. Cronies are still installed all over government. We are not going to see "normal" anytime soon.
posted by emjaybee at 9:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

Looking at it all from the outside, it seems that all sorts of people, in all sorts of ways, many of them quite minor, are saying they're tired of his bullshit, which they put up with before because he was the president, but an about-to-be-lame-duck president doesn't have quite the same pull.
posted by Grangousier at 9:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

For those of you who need a little more encouragement/inspiration, check out this incredible Avengers-themed voter curing video (SLTwitter, tried to swap out the nitter.net domain, video would NOT load in that URL/format: Voter Curing Volunteers Arrive to Save Election 2020

Readers, I wept with hope watching this. Election Volunteers: Assemble!
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

“You’re here to take in information,” Grenell responded.

It's not like the press is under any obligation to repeat it, though.
posted by swift at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence, would not even respond when another reporter asked for his name.

Way to garner sympathetic media coverage, champ.
posted by Gelatin at 9:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Normally, I avoid all conspiracy theories like the plague, but the Trumpists have been saying out loud that they were trying to suppress votes.

And also constantly screaming about teh MASSIVE DEM VOTER FRAUD, which has been a fairly reliable indicator of what they actually are thinking and doing in the shadows. The few actual instances of this kind of shit that have come out have all been (R) actions. And then we have the longstanding Diebold / Repub links, the fake voter boxes in California... I do no think you need to be too much of a wacky conspiracist to suspect that there is some illegal shit going down regarding actual vote stealing / fabricating / falsifying.
posted by Meatbomb at 9:18 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Only about 14K votes or so updated from Clark and Biden lead goes up by almost 5K. See the advantage Dems have with mail. If that is ratio for ballots in Clark, very bad news for Trump.

This is great news. If Biden does take NV, he only needs one of AZ, GA, or PA.
posted by saturday_morning at 9:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Wasn't he also the ambassador to Germany, who used his official resources to liaise with the local far right?
posted by acb at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Can anybody tell me quick if AZ has scheduled a time to dump new results? It'll help me regulate my doomscrolling
posted by Countess Elena at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

That election scraper says Arizona is going to be suuuuuper close.

I agree. AZ is legit causing me panic feelings and has been since last night.

On a brighter note, that same scraper is showing PA as being eventually not very close at all, in favor of Biden. PA puts him over 270 without another state needed, not even AZ.

GA is even more confusing, because I don't think the NYT has good information about how many ballots are left to be counted. I'm skeptical at this point about GA, but it's not over.

All of these very much depend on the nature of the last ballots being counted. It seems reasonable to think that the very last ballots to count are in a demonstrably different demographic than the ones being counted up until the very end. So in other words, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
posted by mcstayinskool at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

“You’re here to take in information,” Grenell responded.

To be "fair" on Grenell, I think when a journalist asks a well-known public figure for his name, it can be interpreted as a suggestion to the public figure that he isn't as important as he thinks he is in the context.

Having said that, of course...
posted by Cardinal Fang at 9:20 AM on November 5, 2020

What if the polls vs outcome...

This occurred to me earlier today as I was out walking the dog. In fact, it was as I was bending down to pick up the poop, noticing that I was going to have to pull up some grass too or, just - ugh - smear, fuckit leave that piece. You know what, what if the polls aren’t that wrong, what if it’s just that the various Republican suppression techniques were exactly that effective? Someone’s going to figure this out - because either polling is ‘broken’ or there were some serious shenanigans.

At the end of the block the garbage can was full. Almost. Trump’s gonna lose the popular vote by even more than last time out. They have to fix this. We have to fix this. This should be goal number one. And goal number two should be excommunicating any Gingrich-style politics apostle, and reaching across the aisle to un-fuck the divide between the two parties. And get rid of Gerrymandering and and and.

The dog, who had been walking obediently at my side, looked up at me, expecting a treat. Why? Right, because I’m talking out loud (and if it’s just the two of us and I’m talking it’s to issue commands, which are followed by treats.). I apologized, “this politics thing has been distracted,” which dog didn’t get “you’re right, you’ve been very chill. Have a treat” I reached down and fed her one. God, if only anything else were as simple.
posted by From Bklyn at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

I think maybe the thing that breaks my heart the most about all this is the constant, relentless trickle of reminders that so many people are so, so very stupid.
posted by invincible summer at 9:22 AM on November 5, 2020 [33 favorites]

How is the Trump campaign supposed to both want votes to count in Nevada and also say that they want the count to stop when they are still behind? Are they basically saying that only Republican votes should be counted?

Or are they trying to go with the idea that flipping Arizona while keeping GA, NC and PA as they currently are would leave NV at a level where it wouldn't matter since Biden would fall short?

It's like full on panic lawsuits with not even a hint of a consistent argument. How can they even prove standing at this point?
posted by vuron at 9:23 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

most cutting thing you can say is "who's this clown?" because it implies they're a) a clown & b) not even one of the better-known clowns

posted by sideshow at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [47 favorites]

Countess Elena, I believe AZ officials are planning to wait until 9 pm Eastern to release info.
posted by mcdoublewide at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

To be "fair" on Grenell, I think when a journalist asks a well-known public figure for his name, it can be interpreted as a suggestion to the public figure that he isn't as important as he thinks he is in the context.

most cutting thing you can say is "who's this clown?" because it implies they're a) a clown & b) not even one of the better-known clowns
posted by saturday_morning at 9:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Are they basically saying that only Republican votes should be counted?

How is this still a surprise to literally anyone? Yes, Republicans will blatantly cheat at every possible opportunity, welcome to the year 2000.
posted by showbiz_liz at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

GODDAMMIT SIDESHOW
posted by saturday_morning at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

cashman > ABC in GA: "Chatham County Judge Bass is denying the request by the Trump Campaign and dismissing the petition against the Board of Registrars."

Emma Hamilton WJCL
@EmmaHamiltonTV
·
46m
The Trump Campaign wants Judge Bass to require the Board of Registrars to prove they have followed the law. The Board says there is no need for that because there is no evidence that they aren't following the law.

Touché!
posted by cenoxo at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [34 favorites]

I woke up this morning thinking about all the ways 'the liberal elite' is going to engage in self-flagellation over the results of the election. How I've already read pieces talking about how pouring money into red states was a 'mistake.' All the things we did to try and sway rural voters that blew up in our faces; we tried and tried and look, they just laughed at us and kept on voting the way they always had. How stupid could we be? We're so bad at this, look at all our ineptitude, we should all feel so bad.

And I thought that maybe the biggest problem with the 'liberal elite,' by which I mostly mean 'educated people in cities' is that we cling so tightly to this story of ourselves as people who are in control, people who are fighting 'on behalf' of poor disenfranchised other people, people of color and poor people and all those 'other' people who don't have it as good as we do. Our job is to 'sway' rural voters into doing what's in their best interest, through the use of logic and money and good arguments and 'appeals.' Every time we fail, we turn around and blame ourselves.

But here's the thing: they are the ones who have power over us. All of this self-recrimination, honestly, reminds me of a woman who can't figure out how to make her husband stop beating her. What did we do wrong this time? Why didn't he listen? We did everything he asked, we had it all gamed out, this time, we had a plan! And still it all fell apart. But next time! Next time we'll figure out the right things to say. Next time, we'll clean the house perfectly, select the right candidate, do all the right things. This was all our fault! Next time!

If you are someone who lives in a city, your vote counts five times less than the vote of someone who lives in Wyoming. That means that you are a person who lives under minority rule. And that feels bad, which is the reason you feel so bad right now. Don't internalize it. Externalize it, because that is where the blame belongs. One of the reasons you were so desperate for downballot success was that it was your chance, through redistricting and the elimination of the electoral college, to fix the rules so they were no longer rigged against you. This is true even if you are white. It is true even if you have a college degree. It is true no matter how 'lucky' you wake up every day telling yourself you are, because you could have it worse than someone else.

Oh, surprise! The people - the red state rural voters - who had the chance to equal the playing field, chose not to. Their love of 'owning the libs' - it's not envy! It's not poor disenfranchised people who are just acting out of frustration and jealousy for how good we liberals have it. It's not even racism, not exactly, not alone. Obviously, racism is a massive, massive problem in this country, but I think white liberals focus on racism, sometimes, as a way to keep making the victims someone other than themselves. It's better to feel guilty than powerless, guilty than abused, because if you're guilty, you can fix it. You're the one with the power to change. I keep thinking of all those liberal white women going to 'self-education' White Fragility workshops in the wake of the 2016 election. You'd just seen a liberal white woman in whom you had projected so many of your own dreams and aspirations be brutally humiliated; you'd just seen all the men in your life be okay with a President who wants to 'grab them by the pussy' - but this is all your fault because you don't know whether to say Latina or Latinx. Better to blame yourself than to admit that what just happened to you is out of your control.

The joy people feel in 'owning the libs' - it's not class resentment, the frustration people aim at people who have power over them! It's the joy people feel in punching down. Of kicking a dog that won't stop coming back no matter how badly you treat it. The bad panicky feeling I have ever time I try to have a conversation with a conservative - the feeling that all my arguments are right, I've thought it all out, if only I could explain a little better I know that I would win.... it's a joke. It never had anything to do with reason. It's someone who has power pretending to engage with someone who does not, and knowing all the while they will never give it up.

I refuse to feel sorry about not turning Texas blue. I refuse to feel guilty about not flipping the state legislature in the hopes my gerrymandered vote might matter more next year. I refuse to feel like I ought to have done more to change the minds of the people who have power over me, who have their hands gripped tightly around my neck. I voted, I volunteered, I donated. I did enough. And if you're here, feeling guilty and scared and sad and wondering what more you could have done, the answer is: nothing. Maybe we, collectively, will figure out another path, away to break this yoke on our shoulders - but you? You did enough. This is not your fault. It's theirs.
posted by Merricat Blackwood at 9:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [196 favorites]

@iamTannenbaum:
I love how every hour we get a story like “100,000 votes haven’t been counted yet because someone got their head stuck in a pickle jar”

@kashanacauley:
Dude’s just going to show up at the Supreme Court and ask to speak to the manager.
posted by Wordshore at 9:26 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

From Max Kennerly, Bondi and Lewandewski apparently received an appellate court ruling allowing them to observe the mail-in ballot processing, which was then reversed by the PA Supreme Court overruling the Commonwealth Court.
posted by Dashy at 9:27 AM on November 5, 2020

Before anyone panics about the 372,000 rejected vote by mail applications in PA, the article trig posted notes those are mainly duplicates and is about how folks not understanding the process have applied many times overwhelming the election offices.

Ah jeez, thank you for the correction. I wasn't reading carefully. I blame lack of sleep and personal frustration with PA's voting setup (the part in the article about how the confusion and lack of communication was likely to cause some voters to just give up tracks with my experience this election.)
posted by trig at 9:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

sundrop, I believe you're given the chance to "cure" your ballot if you forget to sign it. At least in some states?
posted by aniola at 9:29 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

^ my podunk county in California has more people that 6 states and damn near 8.

Where's our two Senators in DC??
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 9:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

Well, I'm glad Arizona is taking until tonight, because then maybe I won't feel obligated to check so much
posted by Countess Elena at 9:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Also, COVID is still happening. Children are still in cages. Cronies are still installed all over government. We are not going to see "normal" anytime soon.

Since AFAIK all three of those things can be addressed by a Biden administration with zero input from Congress, I would not be so pessimistic about "normal" for a lot of issues.
posted by soundguy99 at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

At least in some states?

Here is Orange Country, CA you can cure your ballot for any signature related issue, not just the lack of a signature.
posted by sideshow at 9:40 AM on November 5, 2020

Well, I'm glad Arizona is taking until tonight, because then maybe I won't feel obligated to check so much

Sorry, NV and GA could be called anytime this afternoon or evening, and they'd put Biden above 270, so we're going to need you to sit there and refresh every 30 seconds for the rest of the day.
posted by skewed at 9:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [65 favorites]

Hi, another decades long Election lurker here. I have so appreciated all your insight, updates, pith, and general being there. Thank you.

I was talking to a friend (like me, from the UK) who is actually in Vegas now, working. On Election night he was all “Screw this, I’m in the hotel room, the TV is OFF and I am going to read a book and drink martinis from room service till it’s over”.

That didn't work out as you can imagine, so today he's been volunteering all day to help the workers who are assisting people to sort out problems with the ballots.

It's super interesting to read that info above from Nevada as to what the issues are.

Thanks again to all of you for keeping me sane.
posted by tardigrade at 9:43 AM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

To be "fair" on Grenell, I think when a journalist asks a well-known public figure for his name, it can be interpreted as a suggestion to the public figure that he isn't as important as he thinks he is in the context.

TPM has it a little bit different - that Matt Schlapp, one of the Brooks Brothers rioters and the chair of the American Conservative Union started to speak, and the crowd started shouting "what is your name" at him, and then Grenell told everyone that they were there to "take in information."
posted by nubs at 9:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

DSA member Cori Bush lost in the Democratic primary two years ago, and then this year won the Democratic primary and has now won the general election to become a Congresswoman from Missouri. Lovely 44-second video excerpted from Bush's victory speech:

"Your Congresswoman-elect loves you. .... If I love you, I care that you eat. If I love you, I care that you have shelter..."
posted by brainwane at 9:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [46 favorites]

Nate Silver says Nevada is "probably callable at this point" over on the 538 liveblog, and Nate Cohn says on Twitter that Nevada can be penciled in to the Biden column.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 9:45 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Let's not forget that House districts are equal population. For all the sins of gerrymandering and the Electoral College, Democratic House candidates lost all over the place, where we expected them to win. Even as a daily MeFi reader I was nervous as hell about this election, and tried to remind myself also daily that the community here is not a representative sample of American voters. And still here I am - and we are all - shocked at the outcome. We have a lot of thinking to do once the dust settles about why the polling & expectations were wrong and how our thinking and messaging were wrong.
posted by PhineasGage at 9:47 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Well, at least where the polling was wrong. polling in Georgia was spot on: it was supposed to be very tight. It was just off just enough in other places that Georgia matters.
posted by nat at 9:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The messaging wasn't wrong. You can't convince stupid people to abandon tribalism.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Hey man, you got an Elton John song.
posted by Fleebnork at 9:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Philly is going to save the country, and still not going to get any respect, but that's fine.

Make the 'Running of the Cheesesteaks' a national holiday.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:52 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Adding Philadelphia Freedom to my hopeful victory playlist.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

The problem is we’ve tried to counter the madness by being reasonable. When Mr Trump declared victory with the full picture of the election results still yet to come, Joe Biden should have responded by saying “But I’ve discovered a new state, it’s called Witchetywa and we’ve won, it gives us 37 votes.”

Because this is what happens now, we’re in a different dimension. I was one of the idiots who thought Mr Biden would win easily simply because every survey said he would win easily.

But this is 2020, so that wasn’t going to happen.

posted by Lonnrot at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

I like you, SansPoint.
posted by sainttoad at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

> The messaging wasn't wrong. You can't convince stupid people to abandon tribalism.

You can, however, give non-stupid people more of an incentive to show up. Nobody is suggesting running AOC-style progressives in all 435 districts, but leaning more heavily on Democratic populism is not too much to ask when other things have failed to deliver results.
posted by tonycpsu at 9:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Can Gritty make the final announcement of Philly numbers?
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [67 favorites]

Philly Boy Roy for US Ambassador to Russia.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon: Replace the Jefferson Memorial with a statue of Gritty
posted by SansPoint at 9:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

@SansPoint If you save the country, I'll like you. I'll force myself to like you!
posted by rainy at 9:56 AM on November 5, 2020

You all should know that I moved from Philly to NYC eight years ago. That said, you can take the girl out of Philly, but you can't take Philly out of the girl.
posted by SansPoint at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

@PhineasGage: point taken, but I live in Austin, which is overwhelmingly blue, but because of gerrymandering, we lost all of the 'competitive' house seats, and carried back into office the sole Democratic rep we've had for years, and whose district stretches into San Antonio; because of other similarly rigged losses, we've lost our chance to fix the gerrymandering that might have made it better next time. Round and round we go, working and spending and arguing and begging ten times as hard for one tenth the outcome.

The extent to which we've normalized this situation suddenly feels insane to me. I'm exhausted and not necessarily thinking super clearly, but right now it feels to me like there is only one division that matters in this country, and it's between the people whose votes matter more than they should, and those whose votes matter less. And any attempt at forging an alliance between the two camps, whether based on race or economics or even basic party affiliation is doomed, because people who have a disproportionate amount of power will not give it up unless they're forced. That's what this election looks like to me, and it feels as though it demands a basic reorientation of the way we approach reform.

But who knows. I really need a nap.
posted by Merricat Blackwood at 9:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [57 favorites]

We currently have Schrodinger's President walled up inside the White House compound...

Is he, or isn't he?
posted by mightshould at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The most important election in decades and folks can't be fucking bothered to double check their ballot?

While no doubt some could just not be bothered that seems like it would be a small fraction considering they've put in the effort to vote by mail in the first place. Some of those people are going to be first time voters living in a household that has never voted and probably confused about the process. Some are going to be people with a disability that makes that sort of thing difficult. Some are going to be distracted because they've worked 16 hours a day at the different minimum wage jobs for the past week and still are deciding whether to have electricity or food. And some are just going to straight up make a mistake.
posted by Mitheral at 9:58 AM on November 5, 2020 [36 favorites]

Just a friendly thought that for the vast majority of this country, "it's the economy, stupid". The only people talking to roughly half of the country, addressing the changes in culture and, especially, their ability to have a good productive life and raise a family, blame the Democrats unfailingly. I may see things very differently, and there may be all sorts of nastiness underlying both the values that once were held and the changes that have happened in the last forty years, but I do remain convinced that there are a lot of basically decent people who are terrified by the changes in the world and resentful that their hopes for a good life seem to be unimportant. Trump voices their frustration and offers a message of hope for them, however duplicitous. We're all in this together, and we need to find a way to make it possible for everyone to feel like a meaningful life is theirs for the taking.
posted by emmet at 10:01 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

I for one am looking forward to a period in which real life isn't more crazy than Onion headlines.
posted by vuron at 10:04 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Also, I hate to say it, but given the choice between "lower taxes" and "pay a little more taxes, but get good social services," most people instinctively choose "lower taxes."
posted by argybarg at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

If Philadelphia ends up saving the country, maybe Trump might regret* saying that nonsense about "Bad things happen in Philadelphia."

* I know he never regrets anything, but whatever
posted by wabbittwax at 10:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Heather Cox Richardson, live now! (Facebook)
posted by Glinn at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

> "You can, however, give non-stupid people more of an incentive to show up."

This seems like kind of a weird take when Biden's numbers were higher than, like, anyone else in history. It seems pretty clear that people did turn out for the democrats. They just also turned out for republicans (albeit by literally millions less, but they turned out -- and things are rigged in their direction.)

I don't know why the polls were so off. I think there were clearly places (Florida, Texas), where there were important campaign mistakes. And no matter how much of your base shows up, you always want it to be higher unless it's literally 100%. But all that being said, surely it's hard to blame things this year on low turnout?
posted by kyrademon at 10:06 AM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

It will be a long time before we can know, if at all, but I really wonder what QAnon's effect has been on the election. I really feel that the popularity, and perhaps the explicit purpose, of Q was to buoy support for a man so obviously incompetent that a religion was required to explain his importance.

And Facebook fuckery, generally.

There were at least 3 million people in FB QAnon groups before they shut them down.

It’s not hard to imagine that Facebook’s fuckery is responsible for at least 3 million people living in that alternate reality where Democrats are the evil bad guys. Probably much more.

When you’re talking on the scale of millions, that seems...important, for electoral purposes.
posted by schadenfrau at 10:10 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I'm just workshopping my "latest salvo in the war on christmas" jokes for when Philly pushes Biden ahead.

Obviously it's a big conversation but you can't really talk about Democratic appeal in rural areas without grappling with the fact that Clinton had what may have been the most beneficial platform for rural citizens since FDR and no one gave a damn. She held town halls and gave speeches specifically about these issues that were consistently bumped off the air by random Trump rallies. Policy is boring, how do you make people care? It's not just a matter of mentioning something that has never been discussed before.
posted by feloniousmonk at 10:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

I think there were clearly places (Florida, Texas), where there were important campaign mistakes.

Texas has no bench of democrats, so they will remain red. The polls were crazy. The Democrats that build support (but lose close elections) are still Texans, so they think losing a senate race qualifies them to be president.
posted by The_Vegetables at 10:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I think it turns out that polling, like government, relies on the assumption that the people participating are honest, rational actors and boy howdy we've all just had four years of evidence that that is not the case.
posted by Freon at 10:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

Yeah, Trumpism is fascism - and is banging on a lot of the same kinds of crisis cult drums that other flavors of fascism do, which is to say most of it is definitely ethno-natioanlism - but for most of my life, the US has been in collapse everywhere except the affluent cities no one can afford to live in and Republicans have relied on a strategy of blaming the collapse on Democrats, LGBT people, racial minorities and women in an expansion of the Southern Strategy while Democrats have relied on a strategy of denying the collapse is happening because their brunch was tasty and we have smart phones even in places where we also have hookworm. The insane socio-economic divides in the US have to be acknowledged and addressed for any kind of recovery to ever be possible. Democratic policy has long been preferable here, but Democrats don't communicate that and do select for classist dillweeds who have an almost reflexive contempt for anyone who is not an upper-middle or ruling class white person.

This is a huge reason behind AOC's popularity, especially among younger people - she looks like us, sounds like us and can talk to us about the actual problems in our lives. Democrats absolutely need more people like her - not less - all over the map. There are loads of people in rural and isolated communities waiting to be reached. These places are not all dominated by racist white fascists. There are a number of Southern counties that would instantly go blue if the Republican gerrymandering that has made civic participation essentially useless in the regions were to be dismantled. I have seen a lot of comments describing Republicans' overt fascism and contempt for democracy in this election as "minority rule" - welcome to the US South. For a lot of people, it has always been like this.
posted by Lonnrot at 10:13 AM on November 5, 2020 [49 favorites]

Marc E Elias on Twitter - lawyer working on Biden's behalf, good info.
posted by Glinn at 10:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Pittsburgh also has some hopefully very blue votes left to count! Let's go stillers!
posted by nakedmolerats at 10:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

C’mon Pittsburgh! Yinz can do it!
posted by kinnakeet at 10:18 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

> But all that being said, surely it's hard to blame things this year on low turnout?

This isn't an argument about the macro-level turnout for Biden nationwide, but the turnout for Democratic candidates in the competitive House and Senate races. We'll have to wait for a detailed analysis of this until the votes are fully counted, but you can't just point to Biden's nationwide raw vote total or even his vote share to address the question of where Democratic voters are turning out, not just in terms of states, but in terms of Congressional districts. There's nothing "weird" at all about wanting to give persuadable voters in purple districts something new to show up for, and when progressives did well and centrists did not, well, I think there's an opportunity to run more of the former and fewer of the latter.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Ralston seeing no path for Trump in Nevada now.
posted by Chickenring at 10:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

That premature call of AZ by AP/Fox is making things really awkward right now... they can't call any more states without calling the election.
posted by kilroygbiv at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [26 favorites]

No offense to Philly, but Atlanta is probably going to be first to rescue us.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Why doesn't the AP just uncall Arizona? They're not going to look any dumber than they currently do.
posted by selfnoise at 10:22 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

I have gifs and memes ready, so this race needs to be called soon.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 10:23 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Less than 12 hours after Trump tweeted "bad things happen in Philadelphia" I was walking down the main drag in our neighborhood and someone had screenprinted that slogan onto a bright orange shirt with Gritty on it and was selling it. Even if Atlanta beats us to it, I am proud to live here.
posted by coppermoss at 10:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [111 favorites]

As much as this Philly-born, Pittsburgh-living proud Pennsylvanian is loving the jokey discourse around who puts Biden "over the top" here, let's remember that this is a nationwide team effort, and that which release of results happens to push Biden over 270 is essentially meaningless without all of those others.

As a matter of fact, it's really the Republicans who forced a lot of these delayed vote-by-mail results in the first place so they could try to steal the election, so if we're going to single anyone out in particular, maybe we should thank them?
posted by tonycpsu at 10:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

Turnout for Dem candidates that lost is off the charts. Anyone giving takes of "progressive voters just stayed home because Pelosi/Schumer/DNC blah blah blah" can be safely dismissed out of hand as someone who does not have any idea what they are talking about. The problem is that the "angry white racist" turnout was even more off the charts.
posted by sideshow at 10:24 AM on November 5, 2020 [45 favorites]

It's gonna get real awkward for the AP if the other networks start calling Nevada. They'll have to either un-call Arizona or pretend Nevada is still up for grabs or actually break the glass and call the election.
posted by saturday_morning at 10:25 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I pulled votes at noon and did some calculations to see what would be needed to flip the four outstanding states based on the total votes remaining:

For Biden to win the following states the percentages of remaining votes need to be above:
Georgia: 54.7%
Pennsylvania: 57.6%

For Trump to win the following states he needs the following percentages of remaining votes:
Nevada: 51.3%
Arizona: 59.9%

Maricopa County, AZ is full of enough surprises that I don't blame anyone for not calling it.
posted by Alison at 10:26 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

On the night that Trump made the “bad things happen in Philadelphia” comment, my friend’s husband made a more accurate prediction than any pollster; ”the rest of the country has no idea how many silk screens are being assembled in Philadelphia right now. My social media was drowning in “bad things happen” shirts the next day, with Gritty, with the liberty bell, with Ben Franklin drinking a beer. I saw proceeds going to Black Lives Matter, to local housing activists, to our bail fund. Every person here paying attention took that statement as “yeah, bad things happen to fascists here fuck off Trump.” If this city helps pull the election to Biden, it will be in no small part because Trump effectively issued us a dare. You just don’t do that to Philly, because so many people see a dare and say “fuck around and find out.”

(Obligatory note that we are not an anti fascist utopia—we’ve got open white supremacist cops and the history of Frank Rizzo and the MOVE bombing to contend with. It’s just that the fascists are greatly outnumbered.)
posted by ActionPopulated at 10:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

The Philadelphia count stream went down for a few minutes, and my heart near stopped.
posted by inpHilltr8r at 10:28 AM on November 5, 2020

We're tying ourselves in knots trying to explain away the fact that a little less than half the voters in America like Donald Trump. It's not just his politics, they like him as a person and as a leader. It's so inexplicable to us so we look for anything else to explain it.
posted by muddgirl at 10:28 AM on November 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

A few good pieces of news in the world of statewide ballot measures:

Kids in Washington state public schools are going to get more, and more thorough, sex ed.

Utah and Nebraska have removed language from their state consitutions that "allows the use of slavery and involuntary servitude as criminal punishments." Utah also changed a bunch of gendered language in their constitution and replaced it with gender-neutral language. And voters supported improving the Rhode Island Constitution by removing "Providence Plantations" from the official state name.

In 2002, "Question 2" amended the Nevada Constitution to define marriage as exclusively heterosexual. This year's Question 2 repeals that and it's passing; Nevada will recognize marriage as between members of a couple, regardless of gender.

Michigan voters approved a constitutional amendment "to require a search warrant to access a person's electronic data and electronic communications."

Oh and this is really interesting: Massachusetts expanded its Right to Repair law, "requiring manufacturers that sell vehicles with telematics systems in Massachusetts to equip them with a standardized open data platform beginning with model year 2022 that vehicle owners and independent repair facilities may access to retrieve mechanical data and run diagnostics through a mobile-based application."... "Under the proposed law, manufacturers would not be allowed to require authorization before owners or repair facilities could access mechanical data stored in a motor vehicle’s onboard diagnostic system, except through an authorization process standardized across all makes and models and administered by an entity unaffiliated with the manufacturer."

Also! There are recipes and short story recommendations in MetaTalk.
posted by brainwane at 10:30 AM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

Trump voices their frustration and offers a message of hope for them

I want evidence of this, please. What specific things has Trump said that give "hope" to the stereotypical "working class rural household"? Other than racist BS, I can't think of any.
posted by maxwelton at 10:30 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

I want evidence of this, please. What specific things has Trump said that give "hope" to the stereotypical "working class rural household"? Other than racist BS, I can't think of any.

That is the hope, yes.
posted by sideshow at 10:31 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

The next strategy emerges - Mark Levine suggests that Republican controlled state legislatures should appoint electors who will support Trump
posted by nubs at 10:31 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Yeah, Trumpism is fascism - and is banging on a lot of the same kinds of crisis cult drums that other flavors of fascism do, which is to say most of it is definitely ethno-natioanlism

The problem is that the "angry white racist" turnout was even more off the charts.

There was also a huge turnout from evangelical communities. There's a lot of people shared in those demos, but the Franklin Grahams and Jerry Fallwells of the world have pushed my formerly apolitical Korean older relatives decidedly to the right.
posted by ishmael at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Yes. I was born in Philly - can't imagine wearing anything better, or more appropriate.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2020

That premature call of AZ by AP/Fox is making things really awkward right now... they can't call any more states without calling the election.

Fox was far more aggressive in calling states than were other actors, on Tuesday night. I believe they wanted to build up a map with many Trump electoral votes, project PA for Trump, and hand this off to Trump for his premature victory announcement. Instead, you had the spectacle of Trump, in the middle of the night, behind in electoral votes on the maps, attempting to do the same, and looking quite foolish.
posted by thelonius at 10:32 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

> It's so inexplicable to us so we look for anything else to explain it.

Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett are sufficient to explain this support to me.

25% of the electorate are white evangelicals, and Trump delivered the goods 2017-2020 for them.

2/5 to 2/3 of these people believe in creationism, there is no reaching them.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 10:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

Kids in Washington state public schools are going to get more, and more thorough, sex ed.

Folks like us could never fuss
With schools and books and learnin'
Still we've gone from A to Z
Doin' what comes naturally ...

Oh and this is really interesting: Massachusetts expanded its Right to Repair law,

Both sides spent a ton of money fighting this, for lots of reasons. The other side voiced concerns about domestic violence victims and the idea that their abusers would now have more access to their car data. But Massachusetts is a firm believer in all things right to repair.
posted by Melismata at 10:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

We're tying ourselves in knots trying to explain away the fact that a little less than half the voters in America like Donald Trump

I think people overestimate the number of people vote for him and actually like him. Of course many do. I think many vote for him but don't like him.. they just cannot vote for a Democrat no matter what. It's stupid and moronic and indefensible but they're not all necessarily racists. They're brainwashed.
posted by Liquidwolf at 10:33 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Other than racist BS, I can't think of any.

OK, then keep living in your blue bubble. Here's one example: "Your husbands will have their jobs back." That resonates with a shit ton of real-deal suburban housewives who want nothing more than to stay home and take care of their kids while hubby earns the dough. I'm sure there are many families like this and thousands upon thousands of women for whom that one ridiculous statement from the President hits home. And that's just one stupid example.
posted by Chickenring at 10:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

Trump's lead in PA keeps getting narrower and narrower, and on NPR's map, Bucks County recently flipped blue with 88% reporting. Philly is going to save the country, and still not going to get any respect, but that's fine. No one likes us, we don't care.

I know someone who lives in Bucks County, Pennsylvania. He's a Canadian who has been living down in the States for about 20 years now, spending the first ten years in Raleigh, North Carolina, and then moving to Pennsylvania circa 2011. He works in a factory, though in a skilled capacity, and he isn't the most outgoing guy and doesn't know many people besides those he works with, and most of his co-workers have a high school education or less, and are very pro-Trump. Being surrounded by Trump supporters is really hard on him (as it would be on any of us), and sometimes I try to help him take a more balanced perspective on it by reminding him that statistically, judging by the numbers of those who actually bothered to vote for him, less than 21% of the U.S. population actively supports Trump. According to Pennsylvania's current number of Trump votes, approximately 25% of the total state population supports Trump. There must be plenty of liberal, or at least sensible people there -- he just doesn't know them. On the other hand... looking at what I've written now, I realize that my argument is an academic one that isn't going to help him much with coping day to day with a truly wretched sociopolitical milieu.:(
posted by orange swan at 10:34 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

For Nevada question 2, it doesn't really affect anything. It's just a backstop against potential future legislative jakassery.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The Trump campaign held a press conference in Nevada, pushing baseless accusations of fraud in the state, where Joe Biden has a narrow lead.

You know what would improve Trump press conferences?

A laugh track.
posted by chavenet at 10:35 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Pittsburgh also has some hopefully very blue votes left to count!

My cousin may be singlehandedly responsible for a good chunk of those. She co-founded a community organization in Pittsburgh that initially was working on BLM support, but then she shifted to a really aggressive door-knocking get-out-the-vote campaign. When she got kidney stones a month or so ago her reaction was "okay then I'll just do 40 hours a week of phone banking instead of 60 hours a week of door-knocking".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [48 favorites]

I think people overestimate the number of people vote for him and actually like him. Of course many do. I think many vote for him but don't like him.. they just cannot vote for a Democrat no matter what. It's stupid and moronic and indefensible but they're not all necessarily Nazis. They're brainwashed.

This doesn't hold water with me anymore. A person who votes for the Nazis is a Nazi. I don't care what their reasons are.
posted by lazaruslong at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [58 favorites]

Need some listening while we wait? The People United Will Never Be Defeated, a clppng livestream. "Come for the beeps, stay for the bloops!"
posted by kaibutsu at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

@chavenet - or the Benny Hill theme music.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

they just cannot vote for a Democrat no matter what. It's stupid and moronic and indefensible but they're not all necessarily Nazis

If it quacks like a fucking duck....
posted by tclark at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

> OK, then keep living in your blue bubble. Here's one example: "Your husbands will have their jobs back."

Uh, if winning these people requires advancing the notion that jobs are only for husbands, then maybe we need to try to reach some different people.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

PhineasGage: "Yes. I was born in Philly - can't imagine wearing anything better, or more appropriate."

How about a mask?
posted by chavenet at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I want evidence of this, please. What specific things has Trump said that give "hope" to the stereotypical "working class rural household"? Other than racist BS, I can't think of any.

That is the hope, yes.

I’ve come to the conclusion that a large number of Americans just want to stick it to somebody, and they don’t care about the consequences. They don’t care if the person they end up sticking it to turns out to be themself or their neighbor or the person they love. They. Just. Want. To. Hurt. Somebody.
posted by The Underpants Monster at 10:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

I apologize if I’m repeating anything up thread, but it’s so hard to keep track. So if Biden pulls ahead and takes PA, then it’s game over for Trump because that would be enough to put Biden over the top?
posted by skycrashesdown at 10:38 AM on November 5, 2020

Uh, if winning these people requires advancing the notion that jobs are only for husbands, then maybe we need to try to reach some different people.

I don't disagree, I'm just pointing out that it's not as reductive as saying "It's all racism"
posted by Chickenring at 10:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The next strategy emerges - Mark Levine suggests that Republican controlled state legislatures should appoint electors who will support Trump

To be fair, people were recommending electors abandon Trump for Clinton in 2016. Hence a bunch of opinion pieces on "faithless electors".
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I apologize if I’m repeating anything up thread, but it’s so hard to keep track. So if Biden pulls ahead and takes PA, then it’s game over for Trump because that would be enough to put Biden over the top?

PA or AZ + NV would be the ballgame
posted by craven_morhead at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

FWIW there is a good chunk of mail-in ballots in Pittsburgh that are in a weird limbo state; something like 25k misprinted ballots were sent out, so (if I understand correctly) some of those votes can't be counted until Friday, which is the deadline to see if those with misprinted ballots sent a second (corrected) ballot in.
posted by specialagentwebb at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2020

You can scroll down to this 'tree' simulation at the NY Times to play out all the different scenarios.
posted by PhineasGage at 10:39 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

> I don't disagree, I'm just pointing out that it's not as reductive as saying "It's all racism"

It's not *all* racism -- some of it is misogyny, too.
posted by Colonel_Chappy at 10:40 AM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

I don't disagree, I'm just pointing out that it's not as reductive as saying "It's all racism"

Of course it isn't. There's a hefty dose of misogyny as well.
posted by Gelatin at 10:40 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Here's one example: "Your husbands will have their jobs back." That resonates with a shit ton of real-deal suburban housewives who want nothing more than to stay home and take care of their kids while hubby earns the dough. I'm sure there are many families like this and thousands upon thousands of women for whom that one ridiculous statement from the President hits home.

How many of them do you think there are really, as opposed to the shit-ton of real-deal suburban single moms who want to get back to work themselves? Or housewives who live in the city and want to get back to their own jobs rather than everyone assuming that they want to stay home? Or suburban women who know that no matter how much they want to stay home they can't afford it because their mortgage is too high?

If you don't like the word "racist", at least grant that Trump supporters make the mistake of thinking everyone is alike and everyone wants the same thing and everyone's circumstances are the same. Whether it's from malicious intent or just sheer ignorance, it's still a really bad look.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

I think people overestimate the number of people vote for him and actually like him. Of course many do. I think many vote for him but don't like him..

I strongly disagree. I worked with many Trump supporters in PA in 2016. They did not hold their nose and vote for him. They were excited and energized by his candidacy. I know quite a few Trump supporters in rural California as well. Literally no one is saying "Well Trump isn't the best but at least he's not a Democrat." In their eyes he is a successful businessman, a strong leader, a no-BS straight talker. People who disliked Trump but wouldn't support a Democrat would stay home.
posted by muddgirl at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

I just wanted to say good luck, we're all counting.
posted by persona at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [36 favorites]

Axios is reporting that McConnell is already trying to dictate terms to Biden about the composition of his cabinet.

I suppose on the one hand its nice that McConnell seems to think Biden will win.

But that's one hell of a power play before Biden even takes his oath of office. And Biden absolutely must not submit to McConnell's demands on this.

I'm hopeful that Biden will apply the Trump precedent and simply operate with "interim" cabinet members if McConnel refuses to approve his choices. If he doesn't it will prove that voting Democratic does nothing and the Republicans always win even if they lose.
posted by sotonohito at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [44 favorites]

PA or AZ + NV would be the ballgame

or GA. It's not over there. 13,5K with 45K left to be counted, according to NYT scraper. The last 100K counted in GA have gone about 75% Biden, which makes sense since it's largely Atlanta coming in now.
posted by mcstayinskool at 10:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

My cousin may be singlehandedly responsible for a good chunk of those.

Nice! I have a friend in Detroit who was similarly aggressively involved in GOTV this year, and has been for months. She's on instagram stories this morning all "yeah I did this" and "yall are welcome" over state maps and you know what? Take your W on this one lady, and our gratitude! This is the kind of smug self congratulation I can totally get behind.
posted by phunniemee at 10:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Friend's Philly based label have these "Bad Things Happen In Philadelphia" shirts.
posted by MattWPBS at 10:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Yesterday morning, the trump flag on neighbors house had become an american flag...
posted by albion moonlight at 10:42 AM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

The evergreen tweet continues to bear fruit. The Democrats will look at the results and go "We've got to get more racist".
(With a bonus of transmisogyny from Claire McCaskill, it would appear)
posted by CrystalDave at 10:43 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Biden absolutely must not submit to McConnell's demands on this.

Narrator voice: Biden absolutely will submit to McConnell's demands on this.
posted by Beardman at 10:43 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

Looking at the ABC map, North Carolina shows 2.732M Trump to 2.655M Biden with 95% reporting. Any realistic chance for Biden there?
posted by maxwelton at 10:44 AM on November 5, 2020

But that's one hell of a power play before Biden even takes his oath of office. And Biden absolutely must not submit to McConnell's demands on this.

Yeah, McConnell is going to regret letting Trump get away with bloody murder on "acting" appointees and thus set a precedent that neuters the Senate's power. What's he going to do, threaten to hold up Biden's judicial picks if he doesn't play ball?
posted by Gelatin at 10:44 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

I thought that maybe the biggest problem with the 'liberal elite,' by which I mostly mean 'educated people in cities' is that we cling so tightly to this story of ourselves as people who are in control, people who are fighting 'on behalf' of poor disenfranchised other people, people of color and poor people and all those 'other' people who don't have it as good as we do

Indeed one of the most exasperating attributes of the white liberal elite is the way withering self-doubt, endless navelgazing and exhibitionist self-flagellation combine with a largely unexamined sense of moral/intellectual superiority to manifest as a savior complex that requires "poor disenfranchised other people" to absolve and validate the poor burdened liberal.
posted by dmh at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

I'm hopeful that Biden will apply the Trump precedent and simply operate with "interim" cabinet members if McConnel refuses to approve his choices. If he doesn't it will prove that voting Democratic does nothing and the Republicans always win even if they lose.

Article II Section 3 seems to say that Biden could attempt to recess Congress, whereupon McConnell can refuse. Biden can then declare that there is a disagreement and force the recess, opening him to make his appointments then?
posted by JoeZydeco at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I'm hopeful that Biden will apply the Trump precedent and simply operate with "interim" cabinet members if McConnel refuses to approve his choices. If he doesn't it will prove that voting Democratic does nothing and the Republicans always win even if they lose.

I was not reassured by Biden's garbage pronouncement about "To make progress, we have to stop treating our opponents as enemies. We are not enemies."

Fuck that nonsense forever. They're our enemies, they always were our enemies, and only a fool would refuse to admit that after the last four years.
posted by winna at 10:47 AM on November 5, 2020 [57 favorites]

I wouldn't hold my breath on the Republicans worrying about any sort of hypocrisy on their part when it comes to "but what about the norms?????"
posted by sideshow at 10:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I strongly disagree. I worked with many Trump supporters in PA in 2016. They did not hold their nose and vote for him. They were excited and energized by his candidacy.

There's a large sign on State route 51S just outside of Pittsburgh that says "Racism was dead in America until Obama". It's been maintained there for at least 10 years.

Which is to say, I completely agree.
posted by bfranklin at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Philly media outlets have done some rounding up the bad things posts, thought not everyone appreciates the trend.
posted by box at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2020

SO much money is going to be poured into the Georgia specials now that it looks like two Senate seats are going to a run off in January. An Atlanta activist I follow on Twitter who's been recruiting folks to cure ballots for months makes a cogent case (as a thread) for donating to the state party instead of campaigns, as state parties build infrastructure, do outreach to new voters, and share their data with current and future campaigns. I take his point, but there are also a lot of effective NGOs based in Georgia and led by incredible Black women who've been doing the work in the face of systemic voter suppression. We donated to New Georgia Project and Fair Fight today, both founded by Stacey Abrams*. I trust them to aggressively register more voters and protect their voting rights in the months and years to come.

*Future Attorney General Stacey Abrams? For Christmas? Come on, 2020, I've been very good this year.
posted by deludingmyself at 10:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

Twitter misinformation is really out of control. Just across the board.

The juxtaposition of seeing a warglebargle insane fraud claim directly over an ad about how moms should buy a chrysler pacifica is an accurate representation of the united states.

This is like network tv show levels of fucking stupid.
posted by Lord_Pall at 10:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Narrator voice: Biden absolutely will submit to McConnell's demands on this.

I love Arrested Development jokes as much as anyone, but why? What's in it for Biden for giving in to McConnell when the latter has no real power to stop him? Both appropriations bills and articles of impeachment originate in the House and the Democrats hold that, so there isn't much McConnell can do -- and it's all his fault for allowing Trump to set the precedent.

(If the system had worked as the Framers intended, McConnell would have insisted on at least rubber-stamping Trumps picks because it maintained his own institutional authority.)
posted by Gelatin at 10:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Winna - agreed. We are far past possibility of truth and reconciliation, much closer to Nuremburg-style conflict resolution.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 10:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

It's not *all* racism -- some of it is misogyny, too.

My hypothesis is, "Republicans define themselves by what they hate", and they use that hate to hate-signal to other Republicans that they're all in the "We Hate Things" party. It doesn't matter in particular what they hate, migrants, POC, GLBTQ+, Hillary, etc. There's a cohort w/in the "We Hate Things" party that also hates the things they hate.

Axios is reporting that McConnell is already trying to dictate terms to Biden about the composition of his cabinet.

My offer is nothing.
posted by mikelieman at 10:52 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Axios is reporting that McConnell is already trying to dictate terms to Biden about the composition of his cabinet.

If one buys the idea that Biden is a centrist/conservative/Eisenhower Republican, this is doing him a service. He gets to sideline/contain The Squad, with Moscow Mitch owning that in the eyes of Dems voters who want to believe that their party isn't a tool of the plutocracy.
posted by acb at 10:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

What's in it for Biden for giving in to McConnell when the latter has no real power to stop him?

McConnell absolutely has the power to stop him if Republicans retain control of the Senate, as the Senate has to confirm Biden's cabinet picks.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 10:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

but why?

Since Biden is about to be President-Elect Biden, the "Bernie Woulda Won!" brigade is forced to move to the next thing that the non-establishment wing would have hypothetically done better.
posted by sideshow at 10:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

We're going to have plenty of time to argue about what Biden should or shouldn't do if he gets to be President, but this thread is getting crowded and we should probably stick to discussing the election that may or may not make him President?
posted by saturday_morning at 10:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

Others linked this before, but Biden is up nationally by 3.5 million votes. Not that it matters, but it makes me feel good.
posted by freecellwizard at 10:54 AM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

What's in it for Biden for giving in to McConnell when the latter has no real power to stop him?
Bipartisanship is its own reward. McConnell gets the power he wants, Biden gets to say that he's reunifying the country and all it cost was everything.
posted by CrystalDave at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

They're our enemies, they always were our enemies, and only a fool would refuse to admit that after the last four years.

Oh, come on. Of course they are, but they were in 1865, too, literally, and Lincoln still took the same rhetorical tack ("With malice toward none, with charity for all") and he's regarded as great in part for that fact.
posted by Gelatin at 10:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Importantly, though, not following through on reconstruction is likely what led to Trumpism.
posted by tonycpsu at 10:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

Is Lincoln really regarded as great for his successful reconciliation of the nation?
posted by Wood at 10:59 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

CNN just showed Biden walking into a COVID briefing, and I know this shouldn't mean anything/have any effect on me because in normal times most high level politicians get briefed on the most pressing issues, but it did feel good to see someone that at least says he will follow basic science going into a briefing on COVID while the current president moans about the vote count.
posted by unid41 at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

What's in it for Biden for giving in to McConnell when the latter has no real power to stop him?

Biden believes in the better natures of his Republican friends. He thinks that by compromising with McConnell he will get something in return (cf. 2010-2016; cf. "Our opponents are not our enemies"; etc.). He hopes that by showing McConnell a willingness to play ball, he can Break Washington Gridlock.

What Biden will want seems pretty obvious. He likes the Republicans and doesn't like the progressive wing of the Democrats. So for me, the interesting question is what McConnell will do. He may sting him and shrug, "Turtle jokes aside, you knew I was a scorpion" – as in 2010-2016. But, as I asked way upthread, I wonder whether there's actually the alternative possibility of a Pétain-style Biden administration, where he does manage to "get around" GOP obstructionism by basically passing GOP legislation, branding it a new way forward for the Democrats.
posted by Beardman at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

JustAnotherPerson: In New York State, after Democrats took control of the state legislature in the 2018 elections, we passed the Reproductive Health Act to protect abortion rights on the state level; this was, among other things, to help protect those rights in New York in case Roe v. Wade is overturned. I see that, similarly-ish, Nevada's Question 2 this year is fairly symbolic and had no organized opposition but also "it enshrines marriage equality in the constitution, which would provide protections for Nevadans if Obergefell v Hodges was ever overturned." Right?

For mood management purposes: Here is an instrumental cover of "Fight Song" (Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign theme song), but with pianos and bagpipes and really pretty scenic views of Scotland and a wee bit of "Amazing Grace".
posted by brainwane at 11:00 AM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Whether they are or not, I don't think pointing to individual voters are groups of individual voters and saying "you're racist/misogynist/a Nazi, now vote for us" has worked well for the Democratic party the last two elections. I pray we will be able to squeak by this time and in the future concentrate on a healthcare/living wages/free education/better infrastructure/jobs/ police reform for ALL message. In short, less idpol /more plans for making ordinary people's lives better, whoever they may be.
posted by Brain Sturgeon at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Is Lincoln really regarded as great for his successful reconciliation of the nation?

Yeah, that literally didn't work since he got murdered.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Favorite quip that I saw on social media this morning:
It's funny how the All Lives Matter crowd is upset to discover that All Votes Matter.
posted by TwoStride at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2020 [55 favorites]

Oh, come on. Of course they are, but they were in 1865, too, literally, and Lincoln still took the same rhetorical tack ("With malice toward none, with charity for all") and he's regarded as great in part for that fact.

Counterpoint: Nothing good ever came of appeasement, as seen by Andrew Johnson's sabotage of Reconstruction. I'm convinced we'd have a more perfect union today had Lincoln hanged every confederate officer, imprisoned every soldier and anyone who provided material support to the white supremacist terrorists, seizing their property to be distributed as reparations.
posted by mikelieman at 11:01 AM on November 5, 2020 [47 favorites]

Is Lincoln really regarded as great for his successful reconciliation of the nation?

He didn't even do as much for black people as the current president, I mean come on.
posted by phunniemee at 11:02 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

McConnell absolutely has the power to stop him if Republicans retain control of the Senate, as the Senate has to confirm Biden's cabinet picks.

No, he doesn't, because Trump quit bothering with sending Senate-confirmed positions for approval and just installed people in "acting" roles. Probably illegally, but again, who's going to stop him?

I wouldn't hold my breath on the Republicans worrying about any sort of hypocrisy on their part when it comes to "but what about the norms?????"

Of course, but that ship has sailed already. McConnell set the precedent, and whether he likes it or not, he has no power to stop the President if the President never submits a single Cabinet member for confirmation. (Just as Obama had no power to force McConnell to give Merrick Garland so much as a hearing, let alone an up-or-down vote that McConnell could have ensured he lost.)

If Biden staffs up his Cabinet and McConnell doesn't like it, what can McConnell actually do about it?
posted by Gelatin at 11:02 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I guess what I was trying to say is that it's true, there are some people who are Nazis, and there are some people who love traditional gender roles, and there are some people who are brainwashed by QAnon, and there are some people who just genuinely want jobs to come back to their rust belt town...but what is exhausting and crazymaking and insane is that there are more of us than all those people, and yet it doesn't matter! All those people, collectively, have disproportionate power over us by virtue of the way the system is set up, and they refuse to let it go.

There are more people in this country who look around and are like...wow, the pandemic is going really badly and our President is a lunatic and it really does seem like someone should do something about global warming, and despite the true flaws in a lot of the Democratic platform, their way of doing things seems preferable to the alternative. It's really not that complicated!

But it doesn't matter that we're right, and that our plans are better, and that we look at the sky and say it's blue instead of some wackadoodle color we just made up...because our votes matter less. And we've just accepted that. We get punched in the face, electorally, and then we start arguing about which of the people who have power over us - the misogynists or the racists or the QAnons or the rust belt folks - we should beg to join our team this time. Because we can't win on our own. But I think it's a big part of the reason we feel sick and scared and exhausted all the time. Because it's not right that McConnell and a Republican controlled Senate should have power over us: that is the rule of the few over the many, and even if occasionally you can scrape enough power together to fight back, being ruled over is always going to feel bad.

If there were more Republicans than Democrats in this country, that would be a different kind of fight. But there aren't. And that is where this feeling of powerlessness comes from: the actual powerlessness that comes from disenfranchisement. People in cities and people in blue states are people with rights that are being denied them. Piss and sneer at them all you want, blame them for doing something else wrong, call them elites until the end of time...but they are also people who have just accepted that they should have to amass ten votes for every one that other people have, and blame themselves over and over again when somehow that goes wrong.
posted by Merricat Blackwood at 11:04 AM on November 5, 2020 [70 favorites]

Based on what just happened with Barret, why wouldn't you just expect McConnell to ignore precedent and do whatever is most beneficial for him in the moment? There will be special senate committees and hearings overnight if Biden tries half of what Trump did.
posted by feloniousmonk at 11:05 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

The courts have a say in the legitimacy of appointed department heads. Even in the Trump Administration: Trump’s acting director of Bureau of Land Management is illegally in role: judge.
posted by PhineasGage at 11:06 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Counterpoint: Nothing good ever came of appeasement

Rhetorical nods to the national unity that is supposed to exist is hardly appeasement.

One of the things we hate about Trump is that he demonizes those his minions perceive as enemies. Did I miss the memo that we're supposed to emulate him instead?
posted by Gelatin at 11:11 AM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

WaPo, 2:03pm EST: Trump’s lead in Georgia slips to around 13,500 with roughly 50,000 ballots left to count.
posted by saturday_morning at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

They're our enemies, they always were our enemies, and only a fool would refuse to admit that after the last four years.

Biden can hardly get up and say, "Hey Trump supporters, you are racist, misogynist, selfish, and ignorant, you have nearly destroyed this country, and we're going fight you at every turn and make this country a better place to live regardless of whatever garbage you try to pull." He's trying to set a positive, constructive tone, like a teacher who says, firmly, "Now we're all going to sit quietly and listen," rather than, "Sit down and shut up, you little hellions." A good tone won't make things much better, but a combative one will only make things worse.
posted by orange swan at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

It would take relatively few Democratic city-dwellers moving to the right states to turn the Republican Electoral College advantage into a Democratic Electoral College advantage. Start with WY, then move on to MT, ND, SD, and AK, and boom: Senate supermajority in about a decade.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Bipartisanship is its own reward. McConnell gets the power he wants, Biden gets to say that he's reunifying the country and all it cost was everything.

Maybe we could not create hypotheticals in which Biden does something shitty and then denounce him as being shitty for having done something hypothetical.
posted by Justinian at 11:14 AM on November 5, 2020 [58 favorites]

The villainy you teach me I will execute, and it shall go hard, but I will better the instruction.
posted by biogeo at 11:15 AM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

If I had a magic wand I would make all statements about other people's thoughts and processes vanish forever. I see so many pronouncements - here and everywhere - about the Latinx vote, the Black vote, the non-college-educated white male vote, the suburban mom vote, and how these people are racist/only focused on economics/only focused on abortion/only want to own the libs/only care about gun rights (well actually I don't see a lot of people saying that here on MeFi but I suspect that is one of many motivations for various voters)/really believe QAnon/only want lower taxes.

It is my belief that
- there is no universally applicable generalization about the motivations of ANY group of voters
- 99% of voters, as individuals, are actually motivated by a variety of things, and even single-issue voters take some other preference into account, and sometimes it's the economy, and sometimes it's racism, and sometimes it's religious affiliation, and sometimes it's one of a thousand other things

I'm acquainted with a perfectly nice older woman in a state that has not yet been called, who told me she voted straight blue except for one Republican House candidate (who is thoroughly odious). She didn't say why she voted for that Republican. She sometimes votes based on who she likes, who she gets a good feeling about. She is no more racist than the rest of us, not into QAnon, doesn't watch Fox news.

People are complicated. Reducing any person, or any group, to a sweeping generalization is choosing to ignore reality, and is not what I would hope for from my reality-based community.
posted by kristi at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

The courts have a say in the legitimacy of appointed department heads. Even in the Trump Administration: Trump’s acting director of Bureau of Land Management is illegally in role: judge.

And yet there he remains.
posted by Gelatin at 11:16 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

SO much money is going to be poured into the Georgia specials now that it looks like two Senate seats are going to a run off in January.

If Biden can win Georgia, it means that Democrats can also win these two senate seats. It's all going to come down to turnout. If you think this election is crazy, wait until the entire country focuses their attention on a single state election. Sorry Georgians, its going to be a bazillion dollars of TV ads and phone calls besieging you for a month or two
posted by JackFlash at 11:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Let's not forget the fact that Biden is AN ACTUAL POLITICIAN, unlike someone we know. With tons of national-level experience. Maybe he actually knows how to work with people. I suspect a lot of people in Washington are waiting for the political shenanigans to go back to normal.

I am getting some really fun flashbacks of just how much good was accomplished by Democrats in the name of bipartisanship for the last 3 decades of my life.

But I also think this discussion is premature (or suited for another thread?).
posted by Ouverture at 11:17 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Biden is gaining on Trump in Pennsylvania, I'm more optimistic now...
posted by monicafrench at 11:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Yes, the putz at Bureau of Land Management is still there, but literally every action the agency has taken while he was in that chair is now subject to legal challenge.
posted by PhineasGage at 11:19 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Sorry Georgians, its going to be a bazillion dollars of TV ads and phone calls besieging you for a month or two

Yeah, even if Biden wins, we lose, especially with all those ads appearing during the holiday season.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 11:19 AM on November 5, 2020

Maybe for chat? I learn so much from you all but I think it’s okay if there’s no breaking news on the election to not fill the space with some spitballing about what Biden should do in office or what the Democratic strategy needs to be?
posted by the thorn bushes have roses at 11:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Oh, come on. Of course they are, but they were in 1865, too, literally, and Lincoln still took the same rhetorical tack ("With malice toward none, with charity for all") and he's regarded as great in part for that fact.

The thing is that Lincoln went out of his way to try to appease the South after he was first elected, assuring and reassuring them that he wouldn't interfere with slavery in their states - a terrible, abhorrent concession - and they didn't care. Partly because many of them didn't even get the memo. Lincoln wrote about how frustrated he was that newspapers in the South were just refusing to report any of his conciliatory statements and gestures. He wrote to various printers of Southern papers to ask them to report in good faith and got no traction. We're similarly divided today in terms of the information we get. Would Fox News devote pundit time to talking about bipartisan and respectful Biden is being? Would they even mention it? Why would they, when it wouldn't further their own goals? The gesture would be lost on exactly the half of the country it was aimed at.

The South worked itself up into a civil war last time around, convincing even people too poor to benefit personally from slavery that they were fighting to protect their lives and their society against attack. It worked in part because most people weren't getting any other narrative. There are way too many parallels to the situation today.
posted by trig at 11:20 AM on November 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

We're going to need a bigger boat / another thread.

This one has already gone over 1,100 comments and is dragging on my mobile devices. I'm working on the next election "day" post and will make it live in a few hours, after it's done and I've had a nice cup of tea and a nap and the # of comments here is nearer 1,500.

Let's hope it'll just be the third of a trilogy.
posted by Wordshore at 11:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

Maybe we could not create hypotheticals in which Biden does something shitty and then denounce him as being shitty for having done something hypothetical.

I agree that the hypotheticals are better put elsewhere, so I'll stop with them now too. But I'd also point out that some hypotheticals are grounded in a politician's entire long career and explicit statements. They are not, simply by dint of being hypotheticals, either unlikely or unfair.
posted by Beardman at 11:21 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Counterpoint: Nothing good ever came of appeasement

That's because if it works, we call it something else. Like compromise, or de-escalation.
posted by kleinsteradikaleminderheit at 11:22 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Sorry Georgians, its going to be a bazillion dollars of TV ads and phone calls besieging you for a month or two

No worries, I cut cable TV about 8 years ago and the phone calls will be lost among the half dozen robocalls I get every day.
posted by Fleebnork at 11:24 AM on November 5, 2020

But I'd also point out that some hypotheticals are grounded in a politician's entire long career and explicit statements.

I'm sure Biden also hasn't forgotten the much more recent part of his career when the Obama Administration tried to work with Republicans who -- Mitch McConnell in particular -- refused to bargain in good faith. The ACA passed with no Republican votes at all.
posted by Gelatin at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

I'm in Georgia, and I will happily take political ads, phone calls, and text messages for the chance of electing Ossoff and Warnock instead of Loeffler and Perdue. Sure, it will be annoying, but so worth it if it happens!

And I'll be one of those people sending you annoying text messages, as well. :)
posted by needlegrrl at 11:26 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

On the third day of electionmas
My country gave to me
Three pointless infights
Two raging headaches
And a president up shit creek!
posted by biogeo at 11:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

Progressive philosophy is rooted in the idea that people can change for the better. I don't want to endlessly torture someone for who they were and the mistakes they have made -- that sounds like fundamentalist religion to me. I want to help them become a better person today and tomorrow.

Absolutely agreed! But there is a big difference between voters and the people in power actually carrying out systemic harm. I want to persuade and convert the former and hold the latter accountable for their wrongdoing.

There are Trump voters who voted for Obama (and I'm sure some of them even voted for Clinton in 2016). If they can be persuaded to make bad decisions, then I believe some of them can be persuaded to make better ones.

I do not like this deeply pessimistic framing of GOP voters as though they are tainted forever; as you said, it feels like fundamentalist religion (and defeatism) to me.
posted by Ouverture at 11:27 AM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

I just hope that the outside donations that will fuel the runoffs in GA doesn't follow the Jamie Harrison model. I'm hopeful that theyre planning on massive budgets so they wont be surprised with late breaking cash and penned in with regard to how to use it. (I think some of the issue with the out of state donations was that they came too late for them to be fully integrated into the campaign plan, resulting in the Harrison campaign just doubling down on their existing efforts vs what they would have done if they had known all along theyd be rolling in the dough.)

I'm not sure what the best approach is, but i trust Stacy Abrams and will gladly do whatever or give wherever she tells me to.
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:36 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

The impending double-runoff situation in Georgia is pretty fascinating. Is there any precedent for a state electing both its senators at the same time, with nothing else (House, President) on the ballot to share the focus? Is there any real chance of a split in the two races or is this an all-or-nothing sort of deal? Fleebnork or needlegrrl or other GAians, any thoughts?
posted by saturday_morning at 11:37 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Do you think the White House has an inventory of their plumbing and faucets and such?
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:38 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

It would take relatively few Democratic city-dwellers moving to the right states to turn the Republican Electoral College advantage into a Democratic Electoral College advantage.

Wait, I mean, you don't even have to stop being a Democratic city-dweller! There are big diverse cities with lots of recent global immigrants and job opportunities and institutes of higher learning in the purple Midwest and South. If you're from an oppressed minority group, yes, absolutely do your homework about what state laws will mean for you, and if you have a really niche specific job then yes, absolutely take that into account as well. Simultaneously, don't forget that urban areas tend to be increasingly blue, and are increasingly not waiting for the state to start making things better. My swing-state county went around 2/3 for Biden in this election and some progressive ballot measures passed in my city by even greater margins. As a side benefit, the cost of living is still way lower than on the coasts.
posted by en forme de poire at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Trump was also the public face of the CARES Act which was one of the most effective anti-poverty measures in the country's history.

It's nowhere near as effective as actual welfare as existed in the 1950s and 60s - well, for white families at least. Support for welfare as well as subsidized housing dried up one Black citizens started being able to access it in the 1960s and 70s.

A one time payment is not an effective anti-poverty measure. Welfare is - or so says this person who spent several years studying poor relief.
posted by jb at 11:39 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

I'm sure Biden also hasn't forgotten the much more recent part of his career when the Obama Administration tried to work with Republicans who -- Mitch McConnell in particular -- refused to bargain in good faith.

We'll see! ;)
posted by Beardman at 11:41 AM on November 5, 2020

Tomorrow is my 10-year wedding anniversary with Uncle Ira. Declaring Biden's presidency win would be my absolute favorite gift, though I'm aware that it might not happen as quickly as we all might like.

I've also asked for a pineapple upside-down cake, just in case (TTTCS).
posted by Unicorn on the cob at 11:41 AM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

citizens of mefi pick your favorite of the following cities:

madison
milwaukee
detroit
ann arbor
atlanta
miami
jacksonville
philadelphia
pittsburgh
las vegas
reno
phoenix
tuscon

okay, now move there
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [34 favorites]

I feel this strange and very pleasant sensation deep in my chest as I read the news updates. Is that hope?
posted by swift at 11:48 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Does anyone else think that Nevada, not being used to the attention, is desperately trying to avoid being the state that puts anyone over the line chronologically and hoping to get lost in the mix? Their count seems to be going at the same pace as the others close states, but their frequency of reporting is unusually sparse.
posted by plonkee at 11:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

It's nowhere near as effective as actual welfare as existed in the 1950s and 60s - well, for white families at least. Support for welfare as well as subsidized housing dried up one Black citizens started being able to access it in the 1960s and 70s.

You're right... the branding he could have done for that orange government cheese alone would have been amazing.
posted by Nanukthedog at 11:49 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

QOTD: “A lawsuit without provable facts showing a statutory or constitutional violation is just a tweet with a filing fee,” said Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-tries-sue-way-election-victory-what-happens
posted by thelonius at 11:50 AM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

@DavidCornDC: The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors. This is a dangerous moment.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Denver, Colorado has repealed a pit bull ban.

Denver also passed two initiatives to raise taxes to pay for climate initiatives and to help the homeless.

And Colorado passed a family and medical leave program that is one of the most progressive in the country; it would "provide up to 12 weeks of paid time off in most cases". "There is close to no chance that the state legislature, which is controlled by Democrats, would have passed this version of this policy. In fact, progressives have tried for years to pass more moderate versions of what Prop 118 promises."
posted by brainwane at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

"Chris Wallace says the Fox Decision Desk is sticking with their AZ call, and that Biden picking up Nevada would put him at 270 under their tally."
posted by lazaruslong at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Trying not to derail but is there a thread for protests I am not seeing or is there not one? I spent all last night being chased around by the National Guard and I’m sort of shocked that it isn’t bigger news. I watched soldiers in jeeps roll down Portland streets while they corralled protesters and it left me totally speechless. Here is a video I took.
posted by gucci mane at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

Have fun turning the other cheek. I guess I'll see you in the camps when they eventually do round us all up.

I suggest that extrapolating that outcome from Biden making some anodyne references to national unity as the presumptive president-elect, as was entirely traditional and unremarkable until Trump came along, is an example of confirmation bias desperately searching for a justification.

Biden has an agenda he wants to implement. It isn't the agenda the Republicans want to implement. Biden was elected (TTTCS) by people who want him to implement that agenda. Biden knows all these things.

Perhaps Biden might compromise with Republicans if that's the price for actually passing some of his priorities, but fat chance -- we already know McConnell revels in obstructionism and trusting the so-called "liberal media" to obfuscate what he does. (I'd argue McConnell has made it harder for Biden to cut any deals with him even if Biden were so inclined, because McConnell has made it clear he can't be trusted.) And McConnel has zero power to compel Biden to do anything (recall that McConnell also stood by as Trump refused to honor Congressional subpoenas) and no leverage over him at all.

There is no reason for Biden to do what the Republicans want. There's no upside for him, even if we do imagine some kind of weird fetish for "bipartisanship," because he's well aware of the cost of bargaining with Republicans, namely not getting what he wants.

So let's wait until Biden actually sells out before calling his presidency a sellout, shall we?
posted by Gelatin at 11:51 AM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

LORD love a DUCK it is bad enough that we're already getting into the "who is more ideologically pure" argument already before Biden's even been called, can we please not also add on the whole tired "tHeRe ArE oThEr cITiEs BeSiDeS nEw YoRk AnD sAn FrAnCiScO" argument into this thread yet again?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:52 AM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

> Progressive philosophy is rooted in the idea that people can change for the better. I don't want to endlessly torture someone for who they were and the mistakes they have made -- that sounds like fundamentalist religion to me. I want to help them become a better person today and tomorrow.

Sure, but there is also a duty on the other side to, you know, admit their mistakes and make attempts to change. We're under no obligation to be the Charlie Brown to their Lucy forever. We can simply refuse to play ball until they have demonstrated real and sufficient change. And there is precious little of that going around these days.

If Charlie Brown puts his foot up Lucy’s ass and breaks it off up in there a few times, maybe then Lucy will start acting like a good-faith partner.

Maybe if the the Democrats respond to Republican obstructionism with some dick-punching which leads to some slam dunks, maybe then bipartisanship can be established.

But until the Republicans demonstrate that they want to change for the better, there is no reason to treat them like folks who have already started acting like they want said change.

No, rather a lot of us progressives are sick and tired of

“When they go low, we take it like a punk and feel good about what we stand for regardless of our failure.”

Rather a lot of us progressives want our side to start dick-punching and booting that Van Pelt kid in the asshole. Because they have not demonstrated a disinterest in abiding by that kind of play themselves.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 11:53 AM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

I don't want to jinx anything but the betting markets have increased Biden's chances to about 90% (they were around 85% a few hours ago).

One outlier still has Biden at only 85%, but they also inexplicably give Elizabeth Warren a 0.2% chance, which frankly seems optimistic at this point.
posted by justkevin at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

@_waleedshahid: [CW: use of inappropriate term to refer to trans people] Claire McCaskill: "Whether you are talking guns or...abortion...or gay marriage and rights for [REDACTED] and other people who we as a party 'look after' and make sure they are treated fairly. As we circled the issues we left voters behind and Republicans dove in."

@AOC: Why do we listen to people who lost elections as if they are experts in winning elections?

McCaskill tried her approach. She ran as a caravan-hysteria Dem& lost while grassroots organizers won progressive measures in MO. Her language here shows how she took her base for granted.

Boom goes the fucking dynamite.
posted by tonycpsu at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [27 favorites]

citizens of mefi pick your favorite of the following cities:
madison
milwaukee
detroit
ann arbor
atlanta
miami
jacksonville
philadelphia
pittsburgh
las vegas
reno
phoenix
tuscon
okay, now move there

Hear me out here, Bloomberg pays for everyones first, last, security deposit and moving fees?
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 11:55 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

That resonates with a shit ton of real-deal suburban housewives who want nothing more than to stay home and take care of their kids while hubby earns the dough.

This is Trump's fantasy. It also bears some yucky similarities to the shopworn MRA dogma that says women are all a bunch of lazy gold-diggers. (See also, all those misogynistic reality shows that brought the arcane and sexist "housewife" back into the vernacular. "Stay-at-home parent" or "homemaker" is the only thing I've heard anyone call themselves in the last twenty years. And I live in bloody UTAH.)

It's simply not the reality anymore, in the suburbs or most other places. The one-income, two-parent household has been on the wane for generations now. Most job losses in the COVID Recession have affected women, not men, and many of those women were the breadwinners.

Can we stop using "housewife"? Please?
posted by armeowda at 11:56 AM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

Preview of upcoming Trump speech.
posted by kaibutsu at 11:57 AM on November 5, 2020

gucci mane, I don't think there is a thread for protests, but if you've got the spoons to put one together, I would appreciate it. I am completely enervated, probably incoherent and have a ton of actual work that needs doing so I can't make one in time, but I would be interested if someone else could.
posted by Lonnrot at 11:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Rather a lot of us progressives want our side to start dick-punching and booting that Van Pelt kid in the asshole. Because they have not demonstrated a disinterest in abiding by that kind of play themselves.

"When they go low, we go high" has so categorically NOT WORKED.
posted by jenfullmoon at 11:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [33 favorites]

One thing to keep in mind, looking at these results and how they differ from the polls, that I haven't heard anyone else point out, is the fact that a lot of states automatically sent out ballots.. to every republican who may not have voted otherwise.

I don't think this matters. Nine states automatically sent mail in ballots: seven blue states, DC, and Utah, and Utah was never going blue. I don't think this is a factor in anything other than maybe the popular vote.
posted by rabbitrabbit at 11:57 AM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

That list has too many hot/dry, hot/humid and cold in the winter cities.

Are you sure you can't add San Diego, Portland or Seattle to that list?
posted by vuron at 11:59 AM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

That list has too many hot/dry, hot/humid and cold in the winter cities.

Are you sure you can't add San Diego, Portland or Seattle to that list?

Can confirm, about September of every year, I question my decision to move to Atlanta.
posted by Fleebnork at 12:01 PM on November 5, 2020

"When they go low, we go high" has so categorically NOT WORKED.

When they go low, punch them in the exposed side of their neck.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 12:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

jenfullmoon: ""When they go low, we go high" has so categorically NOT WORKED."

How about, "when they go low, we squish 'em"
posted by chavenet at 12:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Come to Phoenix. Sure it's hot and dry. Think of it as training for the next 500 years.
posted by davelog at 12:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

Apparently there's a briefing from GA election officials any minute. WaPo front page is streaming it.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:04 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Little Rock, AR has four seasons, and Arkansas is surprisingly beautiful. Good hospitals, lots of fresh local food, outdoor activities.
posted by breakfasterandslower at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

That resonates with a shit ton of real-deal suburban housewives who want nothing more than to stay home and take care of their kids while hubby earns the dough.

This is such a sexist / MRA take on what is at heart a real core urge: we ALL would like the breathing room of the ability to support a household on a single salary. Men and women alike want 1950 back, in that sense, and it's not a bad strategy to appeal to those feelings. We all want a net below our financial tightrope.

It's just that Mad King has to wrap it in such 1950s misogyny.

And that's leaving out the fact that no GOP policy will ever provide a net to anyone but oligarchs and the money siphons they run.
posted by Dashy at 12:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

In case anyone else is wondering, I looked at GA and saw that 98% of the estimated vote was counted. So I did the math, that remaining 2% is like 99,000 votes... well more than enough to change the outcome. I'm as anxious as the rest of you to see the end of this all, but let's be patient and make sure every damn vote gets counted...
posted by caution live frogs at 12:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Oh, come on. Of course they are, but they were in 1865, too, literally, and Lincoln still took the same rhetorical tack ("With malice toward none, with charity for all") and he's regarded as great in part for that fact.
posted by Gelatin at 12:55 PM on November 5 [9 favorites +] [!]

Importantly, though, not following through on reconstruction is likely what led to Trumpism.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:57 PM on November 5 [26 favorites +] [!]

Is Lincoln really regarded as great for his successful reconciliation of the nation?
posted by Wood at 12:59 PM on November 5 [4 favorites +] [!]

Admittedly, Lincoln achieved very little after the civil war. Possibly because he was hampered by being shot in the head and dying.
posted by srboisvert at 12:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

AOC won a massively blue neighborhood in New York and is a constant lightning rod for negative partisanship.

However, she was a challenger in the primary and unseated an incumbent who'd been there for quite some time. And she was connected to the DSA at the time.

I would wager that AOC knows rather a bit about "how to connect to voters of the 21st Century".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

they also inexplicably give Elizabeth Warren a 0.2% chance

A single faithless elector voting for Warren, and a contingent election in the House, which could happen in the case of too many faithless electors, which can choose from the top three electoral vote recipients per the Constitution, could...theoretically...lead to this result.

This is also how you could get President Kanye West.

I'd handicap it at more like .00000002%....but it's 2020, so who knows?
posted by gimonca at 12:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

> I'm not so sure that dunk is 100% warranted.

AOC specifically cited how progressive measures won in MO while MacCaskill lost. Obviously you don't win statewide in MO running as a strident Democratic Socialist, but you don't have to echo Trumpist immigration paranoia or cape for Brett Kavanaugh, either.
posted by tonycpsu at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

Are you sure you can't add San Diego, Portland or Seattle to that list?

Pramila Jayapal is crushing it, but if you wanna try the Walla Walla/Spokane area I won't stop you. Your housing costs will be like 1/3rd.
posted by StarkRoads at 12:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Also, Katie Porter is crushing it in formerly bright red Orange County.
posted by ishmael at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

That list has too many hot/dry, hot/humid and cold in the winter cities.

Well, you can always move down to Huntington Beach/Newport Beach in sunny Orange County. Right now Dana Rohrbacher's old seat looks like it might be flipped back to red:
(94% reporting)
Michelle Steel (R)
50.4% - 171,461
Harley Rouda*(D)
49.6% - 168,610
posted by FJT at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I would wager that AOC knows rather a bit about "how to connect to voters of the 21st Century".

That's kinda the thing. Flyover country is still finding its way out of the 20th Century. And our drivers usually have the map upside down and the parking brake on. McCaskill accomplished a lot in her career; AOC's critique could've been served up without showing off such a massive blind spot.
posted by armeowda at 12:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

When Trump's lead in PA gets under 100k, I'm doing a shot.
posted by SansPoint at 12:15 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Well, you can always move down to Huntington Beach/Newport Beach in sunny Orange County. Right now Dana Rohrbacher's old seat looks like it might be flipped back to red

Omg yes. Tito Fucking Ortiz won city council in Huntington Beach.
posted by ishmael at 12:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

@DavidCornDC: The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors. This is a dangerous moment.

Geez, for folks so eager and willing to stab each other in the back for a nickel, the Trumps are pretty slow to grasp that their usefulness to their temporary allies is over.

It's almost like they're not very smart, and have only gotten this far by nepotism and cheating.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Could someone give me a reality check on how likely this faithless elector scenario is? Honestly concerned, given Jr. et al seem to be pushing the idea.
posted by Lutoslawski at 12:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I'm trying to understand these betting markets. Trump's chances went up Tuesday night peaking at 71% at 4:30am Wed morning before dipping below 50% again after 5am. What happened in that 30 minutes!??
posted by piyushnz at 12:17 PM on November 5, 2020

Could someone give me a reality check on how likely this faithless elector scenario is? Honestly concerned, given Jr. et al seem to be pushing the idea.

Not worth spending the neurons on right now. Not at all.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

armeowda: Flyover country is still finding its way out of the 20th Century.

That sounds really dismissive. Please keep in mind that some people here live in the areas you're describing.
posted by Too-Ticky at 12:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

MacCaskill complained about the Democrats doing too much for trans rights so fuck her and basic human rights are not something we should allow Democrats to compromise on.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 12:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [40 favorites]

Please keep in mind that some people here live in the areas you're describing.

Sorry. I'm one of those people. Hence my use of "we." That's how I feel about living where I live.
posted by armeowda at 12:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

If you wanted to keep watching the Georgia official's press conference.
posted by cashman at 12:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

>What happened in that 30 minutes!??

That was when WI and MI were flipping IIRC.
posted by Behemoth, in no. 302-bis, with the Browning at 12:20 PM on November 5, 2020

Flyover country is still finding its way out of the 20th Century.

COME ON.

We've been BEGGING y'all to STOP THIS. Seriously. STOP. IT.
posted by cooker girl at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [37 favorites]

That sounds really dismissive. Please keep in mind that some people here live in the areas you're describing.

Also, from a tactical perspective it seems short-sighted to insult people whose votes you'd like to win.
posted by Slothrup at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

In light of your response, still stop it. It gives the people who use it derogatively more fuel.
posted by cooker girl at 12:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Right then! How about we talk about The Election?

From what I'm seeing, Trump's lead in Georgia has shrunk to only just under 13K votes! W00T!
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

armeowda: Flyover country is still finding its way out of the 20th Century.

That sounds really dismissive. Please keep in mind that some people here live in the areas you're describing

Come on, it's nothing but a bunch of pissant ignorant backwaters like Ann Arbor, Madison, Minneapolis, Detroit, and Chicago.

There's nothing that flags someone as a coastal parochial more than the use of the term "flyover"
posted by leotrotsky at 12:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

>> Flyover country is still finding its way out of the 20th Century.

> That sounds really dismissive. Please keep in mind that some people here live in the areas you're describing.

yeah it’s probably not a good idea to talk smack about the people you’ll be living next to if you don’t want to move to florida or philly
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 12:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

A reminder that people in "flyover country" still need abortions, medical care, LGBT+ protections, and that they still want vibrant public squares with diverse culture and meaningful education. They are sophisticated and intelligent. Many are not just liberal but further left (I've met my fair share of socialist or anarchist farmers or workers). They are not rubes or hicks. McCaskill doesn't do herself any favors by setting up a scenario where one has to be reactionary to win in the country. We need a true Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party that ditches liberal elitism and embraces a fierce social progressivism (dare I say socialism?) that protects the rights and interests of all workers.
posted by Lord Chancellor at 12:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

In case anyone else is wondering, I looked at GA and saw that 98% of the estimated vote was counted. So I did the math, that remaining 2% is like 99,000 votes... well more than enough to change the outcome.

Georgia officials just announced in a press conference that there are 47,277 ballots left to count. Current Biden deficit is about 12,800 votes, so he needs to take about 2/3 of the outstanding ballots in order to pull ahead. Definitely seems doable since Biden has been crushing the mail votes being counted today, sometimes even getting net gains out of red county drops. Plus 2/3 of those 47K are from solid blue counties.
posted by bassooner at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Also, Katie Porter is crushing it in formerly bright red Orange County.

I voted for Katie in 2018 (I bought a house down the road in Orange, so Lou Correra is my dude now) , but taxes are what kicked Mimi Walters to the curb. The cheapest house in CA-45 is above the SALT and mortgage interest limits passed in Paul Ryan's tax bill that year. That bill might as well been designed to fuck over this community by design.

To give you some evidence on how "blue" Irvine (which makes up most of CA-45) is:

1) in 2018, the Irvine community banded together with local business to hire a whole bunch of buses so protesters could prevent a homeless shelter from being located inside city limits. Not even just for "ohh, property values!", but because the concept of helping poor people is considered abhorrent.

2) Next door is just rife with "I saw a black person on the street, beware!"

3) People are absolutely terrified of "G*psies". Like, it comes up a loooooooooot. It's pretty diverse, so perhaps the fear/racism of the Romani people from their home countries, but people constantly lose their shit over "Gypsi*s" all the time. I don't get it.

4) During the George Floyd protests there was lots "Racism doesn't exist in Irvine" stuff, because rich -> smart -> can't be racist. But, see 2) up above.

So, yeah, Porter might be a Warren protégée and be progressive herself, but she is one cycle of higher taxes away from being out of a job. Well, at least the job of Congressional Rep of CA-45, maybe she'll run for Senator one day.
posted by sideshow at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Could someone give me a reality check on how likely this faithless elector scenario is? Honestly concerned, given Jr. et al seem to be pushing the idea.

If the final total is 270 to 268, it only takes one to send the election to a contingent election in the House.

However, the further from 270 you get, it becomes more difficult to have an effect.

In 2016, there was an effort to talk people into doing it. They got seven, plus a couple of others who were replaced by state law. In that scenario, didn't accomplish anything.

At this moment, there are probably better things to worry about.
posted by gimonca at 12:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

If only there were a way for the Democratic voters of the 485 different congressional/statewide constituencies to each choose a candidate that reflects their own location’s makeup, such that heavily-progressive areas could vote in progressives and red areas could try to appeal to those sweet sweet swing voters and hope that turnout isn’t too high.
posted by Huffy Puffy at 12:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

(though i must admit that my first uncharitable thought when the results from ohio came in was a scheme that’s basically what the u.k. did to china back in the day, except using oxy instead of opium)
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 12:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

gimonca: "I'd handicap it at more like .00000002%....but it's 2020, so who knows?"

Indeed. More like .0000002020%
posted by chavenet at 12:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

It is my understanding that Labour has spent years in the wilderness in the U.K. in part because of projecting that Tories were the "stupid party." A national platform of "we're the smart ones" is a terrible loser (not to mention just kind of repellent on its own terms).
posted by argybarg at 12:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

The other issue with GA is whether there are counted but not reported ballots remaining. With how small the releases are recently it feels like the last of the mail ballots in rural counties are rolling in but there are still lots of remaining ballots in the Atlanta area.
posted by vuron at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2020

Georgians, is Gabriel Sterling as awesome as he seems? He seems awesome.
posted by cashman at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

If only there were a way for the Democratic voters of the 485 different congressional/statewide constituencies to each choose a candidate that reflects their own location’s makeup, such that heavily-progressive areas could vote in progressives and red areas could try to appeal to those sweet sweet swing voters and hope that turnout isn’t too high.

If only there were some kind of 50 state strategy to pursue this.
posted by leotrotsky at 12:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

If Biden does win Georgia, we still have to wait for PA or NV, since until those are called, a recount would definitely be pursued in GA. Georgia allows it within 0.5%, and the State covers the costs. It being a Republican secretary of state, they won't throw up any roadblocks for it.
posted by Room 101 at 12:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

@GretaThunberg:
So ridiculous. Donald must work on his Anger Management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend! Chill Donald, Chill!
posted by Wordshore at 12:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [53 favorites]

I have to say I like the New South. How long before Atlanta is the Georgia equivalent of Chicago where the rest of the state doesn't matter?
posted by vuron at 12:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

cookergirl's point is well-taken. I apologize for the use of the term. It really does feel like we're stuck in the past where I live, but I shouldn't assume my experience is definitive, or that people know I live where I do.
posted by armeowda at 12:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

If Biden does win Georgia, we still have to wait for PA or NV, since until those are called, a recount would definitely be pursued in GA.

Also because GA by itself would only get Biden to 269.
posted by saturday_morning at 12:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

By the way, I'm as keen for revenge on the Republicans as anyone. But my suggestion is not to waste time insulting them and get into a position where we can pass Democratic priorities, which will make Republican politicians and their plutocratic backers sad.

And they'll likely benefit Republican voters, just like the ACA did, to the point that Trump and the Republicans had to pretend they had a replacement for it as they plotted to kill it.

Where rhetoric comes in is not apologizing for or running away from the good things the Democrats do for the American people, but let them know about it. It'll also be a blow against the too-pervasive presumption that government can't do anything right. Sure it can. Let's show them.
posted by Gelatin at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

albion moonlight: Yesterday morning, the trump flag on neighbors house had become an american flag....

This week the no flag at all on a neighbor's house became one of those black-and-white-and-blue, not-actually-an-American flags. *barf*

Here in "always voting D" Rhode Island a guy ran for state rep, and he very much doesn't state his party affiliation on his all-blue signs. This allows people to put them up as a dog-whistle or "secret handshake" surrogate for the Trump signs they're too ashamed to display.

The dude is a novice and a nobody, so it's not like he suddenly has enormous grassroots support for his plan to "develop our state economically by creating a fair, competitive business environment that attracts and maintains businesses both large and small, spurring entrepreneurialism...." (though it looks like he almost squeaked it out with 42% of the vote, compared to my man Alex's 51%).

This is a suburban town, half of which ranges from blue collar to poor, and half very well-to-do -- and these signs are definitely up here in the richer part of town.
posted by wenestvedt at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

[This was a long time ago in the thread, but

Being Latino I accept Los Angeles as Lahss An-jealous. (Although the local pronunciation of Los Feliz Street in Los Angeles grates my ear)

As a northern Californian, one of the first times I drove myself to LA I asked a local for directions by saying "so, do I take Los Fay-LEASE?" and they replied " yeah, Lahss FEE-liz and then right on Hillhurst..." and my brain exploded.]

At any rate, this bullshit idea that mail-in votes can only be processed starting on election day is horrible for democracy. I just argued for hours with Trumpists who insist the vote count going up overnight meant an election has been STOLEN. Eventually they stopped responding to my facts and figures (LOL), but man, people are so easily duped by perfectly normal processes.
posted by oneirodynia at 12:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

How long before Atlanta is the Georgia equivalent of Chicago where the rest of the state doesn't matter?

Man. Rural Americans probably imagine we say this stuff behind their backs.

I don't want Democrats to out-urbanize rural America. I want them to be there, making people's lives materially better. (And I assume you do too.)
posted by argybarg at 12:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Apparently there is a strong chance we will hear PA results by tonight.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

AOC won a massively blue neighborhood in New York and is a constant lightning rod for negative partisanship.

AOC is not a lightning rod. She is a successful progressive female politician who is constantly being attacked by mysognist GOP partisans and some Dem centrists. 100% of the "lightning" responsibility belongs to those throwing the bolts.
posted by srboisvert at 12:38 PM on November 5, 2020 [90 favorites]

QAnon is going by the modern fundamentalist religion playbook.

Does this mean a renaissance in wheat flake breakfast foods?

Pramila Jayapal is crushing it, but if you wanna try the Walla Walla/Spokane area I won't stop you. Your housing costs will be like 1/3rd.

They do get snow, and there are large pockets and threads of proud boy style identity ideologies in the area. But here in palm Beach county it’s not like I can walk a block or stick my head out the door and not see a Trump flag or six.
posted by tilde at 12:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

NC’s not quite as close as some others, but you can pretty much choose your weather, and we’ve got mountains, cities (some blue already), and sea.
posted by anshuman at 12:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

The Trump family is now calling on GOP-controlled state legislatures to nullify the actual vote and push for Trump electors.

I think it was Radiolab that covered this: a bunch of Washington insider people from all sides got together to run a bunch of wargame style simulations on scenarios that might happen in the event of a close/disputed result and this ended up being their most likely one: attempting to control the outcome by having friendly legislatures hand pick their own electors.

It became particularly messy if (for legal technical reasons) states were able to choose different sets of electors simultaneously and send both sets to Washington, e.g. the Senate chooses Trump electors while the House chooses Biden.

Annoyingly, I can't remember the final conclusion but it raised a huge black hole around who actually decides the winner where even the electors aren't clear. From memory, I think they ended up with the decision being a de facto one: a military order to hand the football and nuke codes to one or the other.
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

This pre-election interview with David Shor makes a few really interesting points that I feel like bring together some of the things people are debating in-thread in an interesting way. I don't know whether I believe everything he's saying (and, advance warning, there's a very tedious cancel-culture sideshow at the beginning and this comment is not intended as an endorsement of him personally, so I'd suggest just scrolling right on past that). I do find myself believing some of the things he appears to have data and/or personal experience about.

One is that indeed, "moderates" and swing voters tend to have eclectic assortments of views rather than ideological consistency or an overall tendency towards centrism (to this I would add that it seems like some of these views can actually be pretty immoderate relative to mainstream politicans). But this doesn't mean that these voters weren't motivated by racism: indeed, a lot of white Trump voters really did have strong levels of racial resentment and Trump did use this to win in 2016! Of course, these voters may not believe they're "racist," they may not openly use slurs against ethnic minorities, etc. -- but if you ask them whether white people are being unfairly discriminated against, or whether they are "losing" opportunities to BIPOC people, they will say yes. The other claim I found interesting is that there's a limit to how much persuasion you can do in the context of a campaign by having party elites take a principled stand; persuasion is much more of a long-term ground game. What you can do in a campaign, though, is affect which issues are most salient to voters by picking the issues you lead with. I think the way he would interpret the Trump era is that most people didn't get way more racist between 2008 and 2016 (although certainly social media has radicalized some); Trump just harnessed their racism way more openly and enthusiastically than other recent Republican presidental nominees. Shor also ascribes Clinton's loss in 2016 to getting misled by messaging that was a great success with college-educated white people, but turned out not to resonate with non-college whites, as opposed to policies that actually benefited one group over the other. Basically, his contention is that you win over that part of the country in the short term by appealing to Democratic positions that are broadly popular, which is not a shocker -- but because moderates aren't centrists, that's not the same as racing to the center! It actually could include some quite "radical" positions that most people are actually in favor of, like a universal job guarantee. That's actually pretty hopeful because even though it acknowledges that lots of Americans are still totally racist, it provides a path forward to winning elections without Democrats abandoning the fight against racism, embracing "pro-business," Republican-lite positions, or writing off half the country entirely in order to win.
posted by en forme de poire at 12:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

On place names, AFAIK people get Des Moines right, don't they?

De-moin, not Dez-moinz?
posted by UbuRoivas at 12:42 PM on November 5, 2020

I want rural lives better but you can work on issues that impact urban and rural areas while also ensuring that the needs of your entire population are being met. Honestly though other than stuff like water rights in the west and some other local and state wide issues isn't most agricultural policies largely determined by national policies and international markets? Also the number of people that work direct in agriculture is pretty small due to the industrialization of farming. In regards to resource extraction and rural industrial jobs those are also highly dependent on market forces as well.

Of course the other option is to give municipalities enough autonomy and resources to actually positively impact the fate of their communities but that of course requires more progressive policy orientations.
posted by vuron at 12:43 PM on November 5, 2020

New Orleans resident posting to say most of y'all don't say it right.

Carry on.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 12:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Nwalins
posted by The otter lady at 12:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Where rhetoric comes in is not apologizing for or running away from the good things the Democrats do for the American people, but let them know about it. It'll also be a blow against the too-pervasive presumption that government can't do anything right. Sure it can. Let's show them.

Absolutely, and I try to have at-hand examples of the benefits of taxes. Like fixing potholes (I've been trying to fetchlike make Republicans the Pothole Preservation Party), or like the thread I saw the other day where someone's upstairs neighbor had been pouring jars of urine down the outside of the building, streaming down the downstair's neighbor's window(s), on a regular basis. "Indeed there is a Department of Health who uses taxes to deal with exactly that kind of thing."

The right's rhetoric is that higher taxes are used to, I don't know, convince women to get abortions? But at the end of the day they're used so you don't have to buy a new tire twice a year just from the unfixed torn up roads along your commute. Pick a generic complaint about modern life and "what if that didn't exist or happen anymore?" can be a powerful line of discussion.

The tide has to change to "taxes are actually good," or at least not being afraid to stand up for them. I'm still searching for a way to illustrate how unfair tax cuts on the rich are, even to their supporters, to break through the "temporarily embarrassed millionaire" mentality.
posted by rhizome at 12:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

We are living through one of the scenarios from the Transition Integrity Project exercises, linked in this previous thread: How To Stop A Coup.
posted by Monochrome at 12:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

It is De-moin, but I've heard Dez-moinz, De-moinz, and probably some others. Mostly from airline personnel, every time I fly into DSM.

(As a Quebecker living in Iowa I admit I am kind of pleased to have a little bit of French-Canadian history here in the middle of the Midwest.)
posted by Jeanne at 12:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

On place names, AFAIK people get Des Moines right, don't they?
You mean, Des' Moi-nes'ia ?
posted by xedrik at 12:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I am begging y'all to stop making me refresh when I see 20 new comments only to see "let's talk about how words sound."
posted by nakedmolerats at 12:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [146 favorites]

Given the overwhelming preference Dems showed for early, mail-in voting, this seems like it’s going to be one of the prime opportunities for screwing with the upcoming Special Elections in GA. It’ll be key to try to prevent the Republican state leadership from significantly curtailing absentee/early mail-in options.
posted by darkstar at 12:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

You don't say any S noises in Des Moines, that is true. Just pretend the Ss are lies!
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 12:54 PM on November 5, 2020

I think one of the issues is high tax/democrat led states arent necessarily better off, atleast in an easily demonstrable way. The easiest way to win converts would be by showing results.
posted by asra at 12:54 PM on November 5, 2020

Erik Erickson is already proposing that election day be a national holiday and all votes are cast that day only.
posted by COD at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

When you're faced with a party that blatantly lies, the answer is to find concrete ways to make the winnable swing voters lives better, and then point to it next election cycle.

We aren't going to win against them on rhetoric, because hey, They Lie. And there are going to be a subset of voters who are never winnable, either because they like the hate for hate's sake or because they're so far checked out from reality that they'll believe Republican lies that the free childcare they got from the Dems is somehow making their lives worse. But there's also a segment - and we can argue how much, but it's there - that will look at that free childcare, and the fact that they have more money in the budget now, and do the math on which party is making their lives materially better. The goal with this election cycle has got to be getting those clear, material benefits about how Democrats are making your life better - and if we get the executive branch, I think there will be opportunities to make that happen over the next four years. Let's keep the hope alive.
posted by Jaclyn at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

No matter how you want to pronounce it, just don't call it Frisco.
posted by PhineasGage at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I hear De-moin mostly, but De-Moinz slips in when they're including the state. I think it's a mouth thing where it's simpler to pronounce with the "bridge" letter. I don't know what Des Moinsgelinos prefer.

This week the no flag at all on a neighbor's house became one of those black-and-white-and-blue, not-actually-an-American flags. *barf*

"Part French, areya?"
posted by rhizome at 12:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Erik Erickson is already proposing that election day be a national holiday and all votes are cast that day only.

Sounds good unless youre aware that people work on holidays, too, right? especially poorer folks? (there is no one size fits all election solution and it really rubs me the wrong way when people assume a national holiday or even weekend voting -would fix everything)
posted by Exceptional_Hubris at 12:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

Erik Erickson is already proposing that election day be a national holiday and all votes are cast that day only.

National holiday, sure, but hell no on all votes cast that day only. Fuck off with that abelist and potentially classist shit, Erickson.
posted by cooker girl at 12:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

I am only a member and not a mod, but I would like to see less

-Liberal versus leftist: which is right?
-Why the Biden administration will suck ass
-Whether we should go high or punch Republicans in the dick
-How to reach out to Trump voters versus let Trump voters eat shit
-Why do people ever vote for Trump is it racism no misogyny no the economy no rural/urban divide no Fox news/Qanon no
-How to pronounce various places

and more

-Election news and discussion
-Dunking on Trump and Republicans because fuck them forever
-Airplane jokes (in moderation)
posted by supercrayon at 12:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [110 favorites]

And also the Australian sausages idea.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 12:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

aside: interview with Jennifer Horn, co-founder of The Lincoln Project (the economist asks - podcast)
posted by are-coral-made at 12:59 PM on November 5, 2020

Erik Erickson is already proposing that election day be a national holiday and all votes are cast that day only.

Why do you want to disenfranchise our brave men and women overseas, Erik?
posted by Capt. Renault at 12:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.
posted by theodolite at 12:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

But how would voter suppression work as effectively, if voting were on a (generally) work-free day?

Weekends are a good option, with early voting for a few weeks in person and via mail-ins.

Works over here, and we have compulsory voting.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:00 PM on November 5, 2020

Seconding super crayon. Please.
posted by medusa at 1:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

I can't tell you that. It's classified.
posted by swift at 1:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.

Grift train coming to a stop, boys! Time to collect your things and get ready to jump!
posted by darkstar at 1:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

I think one of the issues is high tax/democrat led states arent necessarily better off, atleast in an easily demonstrable way. The easiest way to win converts would be by showing results.

Are you kidding? New York? California? If memory serves me correctly, if California seceded from the union, it'd be the world's fifth biggest economy.

Not that these states don't have problems, but a lot of them come from "a whole lot of people want to live there."
posted by Gelatin at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

(As a Quebecker living in Iowa I admit I am kind of pleased to have a little bit of French-Canadian history here in the middle of the Midwest.)

As a fellow Iowan I'm really sorry for what this state has become :(
posted by Lutoslawski at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

You can't fire me! I quit!
posted by Ahmad Khani at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2020

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.

Um I hoping that didn't have to do with him refusing an unlawful order.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [43 favorites]

If I were paranoid, I might wonder if Esper had gotten an inappropriate order for the military from the commander-in-chief.

I'll be in my bunk(er).
posted by Slothrup at 1:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

More likely is that he'd be out in the next administration and sees the writing on the wall so he's getting out now.
posted by cooker girl at 1:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The right's rhetoric is that higher taxes are used to, I don't know, convince women to get abortions?

The implication, rarely stated outright but notably hinted at by Reagan's reference to "welfare queens," is that people of color benefit from taxes taken from white people.
posted by Gelatin at 1:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Trading a national holiday for the ability to limit people to day of (no absentee or early voting) is a non-starter. Foe one thing determining election rules is explicitly a state issue and for another basically you would be saying anyone in a service industry that typically work holidays would be under even more pressure to find time to vote only get to do it one day?

I suppose they would also want to limit the number of voting locations so that voting in urban areas becomes even harder like Republican Secretaries of State have been doing for the last decade or more?

I love how they offer something cool but always want to couple it with something ridiculously unpalatable so they can say "Ohh look Democrats don't want to give you a nice holiday, how unreasonable are they!". It's a win win proposal for them.
posted by vuron at 1:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Sec of Defense resignation...

I was wondering if we'd get Trump ordering the military to stop the count in Philadelphia. And then hopefully getting laughed out of the room. We shall see.....
posted by kaibutsu at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2020

Per Courtney Kube and Carol E. Lee at NBC News: "defense officials say Esper prepared his letter because he is one of the Cabinet officials long expected to be pushed out after the election."

Also apparently he's going to help draft legislation to rename the many military bases currently named for Confederate traitors. So that's something.
posted by jedicus at 1:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Long at odds with Trump, Defense Secretary Esper has prepared a resignation letter, say officials (NBC)

It's not uncommon for Cabinet secretaries to prepare undated letters of resignation during a presidential transition, giving the commander in chief the chance to replace them for a second term. The president decides whether to accept the resignation letters, and the process usually occurs after the election results are clear.

But defense officials say Esper prepared his letter because he is one of the Cabinet officials long expected to be pushed out after the election.

Only source so far from what I gather.
posted by Ahmad Khani at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

(jinx)
posted by Ahmad Khani at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2020

Regarding Esper, it's better to jump off the sinking ship and into a nice cushy lobbyist position before the rest of the rats start to beat you to those positions. You don't want to be stuck accepting some lame University Chancellor/President position do you?
posted by vuron at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Erik Erickson is already proposing that election day be a national holiday and all votes are cast that day only.

Sounds good unless youre aware that people work on holidays, too, right?

Erickson isn't smart enough to realize the disenfranchisement he's after will hit the military the hardest.
posted by Gelatin at 1:06 PM on November 5, 2020

I can easily imagine that a bullshit, sociopathic political appointee who was only interested in a cabinet position for the power and prestige it afforded, and not out of any real sense of service, would be eager to jump ship early, and not have to put in all that grinding work of helping the transition team over the coming three months through the holiday season, when he knows he’ll be fired in February, anyway.

So much easier to say “so long, suckers” now, and save yourself a lot of thankless, long hours of actual due diligence, while making more time for egg nog.
posted by darkstar at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

It seems clear enough after this week that the required holiday is not Election Day but rather the day AFTER Election Day.
posted by wabbittwax at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

Reagan's reference to "welfare queens"

Which was a lie, of course, because he said it with an example of some woman who was pulling in X amount of money because of her Y children, and no such woman has ever been identified and it's very strongly believed he just made it up.
posted by UbuRoivas at 1:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

This guide looks useful:

2020 Election Litigation Tracker
https://www.scotusblog.com/election-litigation/

Welcome to the 2020 Election Litigation Tracker, a joint project of Election Law at Ohio State and SCOTUSblog. During the 2020 election season, we will provide up-to-date information on major election law cases as they make their way through every level of the court system. Our goal is to serve as a resource on election law and administration for the general public, lawyers, educators, journalists and policymakers. You can read all of our previous election-related coverage here.

[Disclaimer: SCOTUSblog and Election Law at Ohio State are nonpartisan and do not endorse, support or oppose any candidate, campaign or party.]

Here’s an example of Election Cases We’re Watching > Pennsylvania Democratic Party v. Boockvar.
posted by cenoxo at 1:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Philly is going to save the country, and still not going to get any respect, but that's fine. No one likes us, we don't care.

The Gang Gets Joe Biden Elected
posted by banshee at 1:09 PM on November 5, 2020 [41 favorites]

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.

"You can't fire me, I quit!"
posted by Gelatin at 1:10 PM on November 5, 2020

Trump is down to a 98k lead in PA, and I just took a shot of Walker Black!
posted by SansPoint at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [27 favorites]

What I love is that Esper is described as "Long at odds" with Trump but has been in the office a little over a year.
posted by selfnoise at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.

Esper is similar to the French word for hope.

So hope is abandoning team Trump.
posted by chavenet at 1:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

What I love is that Esper is described as "Long at odds" with Trump but has been in the office a little over a year.

If time seems weird outside the White House, I can't imagine what it feels like on the inside.
posted by swift at 1:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Laissez toute espérance, vous qui entrez...
posted by saturday_morning at 1:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Grift train coming to a stop, boys! Time to collect your things and get ready to jump!

GONE with the preppers and the racists and the haters!
GONE with gun-nuts and the never-pay their-taxers!
GONE with the Bible-thumpers, homophobes and TERFS!

But what about Trump? He's a fake and he doesn't know the TERRITORY!
posted by emjaybee at 1:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [22 favorites]

What I love is that Esper is described as "Long at odds" with Trump but has been in the office a little over a year.

Over 30 Scaramuccis is nearly a lifetime
posted by Ahmad Khani at 1:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Airplane jokes (in moderation)

No, I don't think I'll ever get over moderation.
posted by Greg_Ace at 1:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

that's not the music man song i've been thinking of amid all this discussion of pronunciation.
posted by 20 year lurk at 1:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Greg_Ace: Those wounds run... pretty deep.

Airplane II is underrated. There. I said it.
posted by SansPoint at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Impeached and disgraced one-term failure says what?
posted by kirkaracha at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I picked the wrong week to quit making "Airplane" jokes.
posted by PhineasGage at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [39 favorites]

Slightly off-topic, I fully expect Republican talking points over the next weeks to leverage polling failures into a more general "what do experts really know" discussion specifically aimed at COVID-19 and climate change.
posted by Slothrup at 1:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

My boyfriend is writing a song about the election (to the tune of "Rock the Boat"):

Count the vote
(don't count the vote baby!)
Count the vote
(the poll might flip over)
Count the vote
(been getting tight lately)
Count the mother fucking vote!!!!

It's all fraud
Stand up and applaud
No need to count ballots
Just meet your new God

It's all fraud
Ignore the hypocrisy
It's hard being a dictator
In a democracy
posted by subdee at 1:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

TBF no one actually cares about hypocrisy, unless it's the other side being hypocritical. But lol.
posted by subdee at 1:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

But what about Trump? He's a fake and he doesn't know the TERRITORY!

CASH for the soft goods, cash for the fancy goods
CASH for the noggins and the piggins and the firkins
CASH for the Russians and the hotels and the golf courses
Look whatayatalk, whatayatalk, whatayatalk, whatayatalk, whatayatalk?
posted by Melismata at 1:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

You're hypocritical, I contain multitudes.
posted by biogeo at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Biden wants "all people" to "stay calm" ...
posted by chavenet at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Yes... consistency, hobgoblins, small minds, etc.
posted by subdee at 1:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Maricopa County, AZ is full of enough surprises that I don't blame anyone for not calling it.

Checking in from Arizona here to say I have gone absolutely completely insane with the wait. Maricopa is one of the biggest counties in the country and while we know there are 270k ballots outstanding from the county (which is plenty to sway the count either way), it's not clear *where* in the county they're from - either rural red areas or progressive blue urban spots. It's literally a total unknown at this point and I'm trying so hard not to claw my own face off.
posted by WidgetAlley at 1:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

If the shoe was on the other foot, I'd be freaking out too. Though I'd like to think asking for a recount to make sure there was no foreign hacking of the electronic voting machines is different from demanding that some votes, from the wrong types of people, not be counted.
posted by subdee at 1:26 PM on November 5, 2020

Re Mark Esper, I don't know why folks are surprised, Trump has been talking about firing him for several months now, and quite recently said he was going to do so right after the election.
posted by splitpeasoup at 1:27 PM on November 5, 2020

I don't know why folks are surprised

Because the cornered narcissist might consider the military his own personal ass saving division, and might be issuing insane orders is why I’m surprised
posted by glaucon at 1:29 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

On place names, AFAIK people get Des Moines right, don't they?

De-moin, not Dez-moinz?

I knew how to say Des Moines properly, so upon moving to the Chicago area and discovering a town called Des Plaines, I confidently pronounced it "de plain" in conversation with someone, and to my utter embarrassment immediately realized I'd inadvertently uttered the catchphrase of Mr. Roarke's sidekick on Fantasy Island.
posted by Serene Empress Dork at 1:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Well, and if Biden does win, there'll be a new SoD in a couple months anyway, so it's sort of striking that Esper is not willing to stay through January. But I can understand if he's excited to get the hell out of Dodge.
posted by saturday_morning at 1:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

My agency got an agency-wide email from our director reminding them of our oath of office to the Constitution and American people. Then news that Esper resigned hit.

Edit: *is resigning,* along with his "refocusing our mission on increased lethality so that agencies can't afford to hire new people or even pay for window washing* policy .
posted by gwydapllew at 1:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Jumping in to throw many Massachusetts towns into the mix. Worcester. Gloucester. Leominster. Billerica. And that isn't even going near the trifecta of fun—Athol, Belchertown, and Cummington. (I like this distraction).
posted by grimley at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Biden wants "all people" to "stay calm" ...

CW: Abuse (physical) Airplane- Calm Down, Get ahold of yourself!

Animal House - All Is Well!
posted by mikelieman at 1:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

ngl i kind of hope that it's georgia that puts biden over the top, not pennsylvania. there's a bunch of lil jon tracks i want to post.
posted by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon at 1:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

i like dirty south rap as much as the next person but cmon man we have The Roots
posted by lazaruslong at 1:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

"We have volunteers counting mail-in votes set up from the windows to the walls."
posted by haileris23 at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

One election result I'm particularly glad about: my little town is allocating an additional $1 million to the library budget!
posted by swift at 1:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [37 favorites]

For all my Philly MeFites waiting on the breaking news (previously)
posted by tonycpsu at 1:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Considering Barr sent out a memo about armed agents at polling stations yesterday, Esper's resignation is somewhat alarming.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

538: "If 90 percent of the remaining ballots are from Clark County, Nevada should be projected for Biden, IMO."

I wonder if every network is going to be cautious to call Nevada after Fox and AP jumped the gun on Arizona. Because if you add the two together....
posted by gurple at 1:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Have we considered the possibility that everyone is trying to call Nevada, but Nevada isn't answering the phone?
posted by oulipian at 1:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

ngl i kind of hope that it's georgia that puts biden over the top, not pennsylvania. there's a bunch of lil jon tracks i want to post.

If it wasn't #problematic, I'd be getting ready to blast Going to Georgia by the Mountain Goats, myself. Also Midnight Train, Georgia on My Mind...

[Sidenote: final results in the New Zealand election are due out this afternoon our time. When I woke up, I basically couldn't find any articles about that on our own news websites; all the stories are about the US election].
posted by Pink Frost at 1:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Our scene begins with my six-year-old daughter peering over Ms. gwydapllew's shoulder. The glow from a smartphone reflects off her mother's glasses, radiating blue and red onto my daughter's face.

"Mommy, that is Daddy's Big Boss! Who is the blue man?" She asked with the natural inquisitiveness of a squirrel.

"That is Joe Biden, honey. He's competing with Daddy's Big Boss and trying to earn his job." Her mother replied apolitically.

"Oh. I like him." The youngster said cheerfully.

"Why do you like him?" Her mother, the child of Trump-voting Fargoans, asked evenly.

"Because when I see Daddy's Big Boss on TV, he sounds mean and angry. The Blue one seems kind."

Ms. gwydapllew counters gently, thinking on she voted a straight Blue ticket a few days ago, and that she can no longer talk to her mother about politics without getting into a shouting match. "Why do you think he is kind?"

My little girl answers with a smile. "Because when he is on TV, he isn't nasty to people!"

The United States in eighteen sentences.
posted by gwydapllew at 1:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [59 favorites]

Note that the story is that Esper has prepared a letter of resignation, not that he has actually resigned. According to the story he is still at his post. My mind also went immediately to rather frightening scenarios but so far there doesn't seem to be any evidence that this is anything beyond normal cabinet shuffling, so let's take a few deep breaths.
posted by biogeo at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2020

Georgia more than likely headed to a recount. Which, duh, but this article also gives a county-by-county breakdown of the 44k ballots left. Biden currently trails by a little less than 13k. He needs ~63% of the remainder to overtake, which sounds like a huge number but for the past 30k votes tallied he's been averaging > 70%. Who the F knows, but it's gonna be really close.
posted by mcstayinskool at 1:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

people are asking a lot of questions that have already been answered by my statement that the president is alive and well
posted by DoctorFedora at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Breaking news! Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is resigning. I have no idea what this means.

It means we're about to have an unconfirmed (if not unconfirmable) Acting SecDef for the next 10 weeks.
posted by rhizome at 1:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

DoctorFedora: They said the same thing about Franco
posted by SansPoint at 1:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

When I woke up, I basically couldn't find any articles about that on our own news websites; all the stories are about the US election

We were talking about this at dinner yesterday. I think the main thing is that if Trump wins, there is no way the rest of the world can stop global warming and provide a future for our kids. So it is more important than our own elections/COVID issues/whatever...
posted by mumimor at 1:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Yo glaucon, can you check your Mefi mail? I've been trying to track down something you mentioned the other day but Reddit search isn't working.
posted by Rhaomi at 1:54 PM on November 5, 2020

the president is alive and well

Just like Gerald Ford.
posted by swift at 1:54 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

ngl i kind of hope that it's georgia that puts biden over the top, not pennsylvania. there's a bunch of lil jon tracks i want to post.

Isaac Hayes is trying get to get to Maricopa county

Philadelphia soul will be a pretty smooth soundtrack also

Throw in some Stooges, MC5, for our fine folks in MI...

Georgia, as mentioned by Reclusive Novelist Thomas Pynchon, will drop all kinds of bangers...

Let's fucking do this, I want to dance....
posted by albion moonlight at 1:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

More lies. The president may be alive, but he's never been well.
posted by mrgoat at 1:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I've seen multiple places that white women went more for Trump this time than in 2016, does anybody know for sure whether or not this happened?
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 1:56 PM on November 5, 2020

Throw in some Stooges, MC5, for our fine folks in MI...

Might I humbly suggest ICP's "Fuck Your Rebel Flag" for some additional Detroit realness?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

A bit behind, but I just woke up and it took me an hour to catch up:

You’re here to take in information,” Grenell responded.

I’d like to see the articles written about the press conference open with “Grenell spoke, saying to the press, “You’re here to take in information.” Since everything else was lies and propaganda, and no actual information was provided, we have nothing else to report.”
posted by Ghidorah at 1:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I've seen multiple places that white women went more for Trump this time than in 2016, does anybody know for sure whether or not this happened?

Mostly no, because exit polls are garbage.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

90k in PA! 90k to go!
posted by SansPoint at 2:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

I've seen multiple places that white women went more for Trump this time than in 2016, does anybody know for sure whether or not this happened?

No, literally nobody knows this right now, and drawing inferences at this point leaves out very large chunks of left-leaning votes. For example, 25% of California votes, and 15% of New York votes remain outstanding, and those uncounted votes likely lean very hard to the left.
posted by skewed at 2:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

As far as the senate, not that it would actually work, but it’s worth a try: why not make a list of all the Republican senators, especially ones in states with Dem governors, where the governor gets to pick a replacement, or there’s a special election, and start offering ambassadorships to relatively pleasant, utterly inconsequential countries? There’s gotta be at least one or two that would break ranks and jump at the chance for a new and exciting avenue of largely unscrutinized grift. Just go down the list, and check and see who wants Monaco, who wants Tahiti, and so on. Sure, McConnell isn’t going to take it, but maybe one of those greedy, self-serving motherfuckers might, and we gotta try everything.
posted by Ghidorah at 2:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

Not a mod, but maybe the mixtape would work better as an AskMe?

(But if we're going to do it here, here's another Philly song.)
posted by box at 2:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

9.5K gap in Georgia now.
posted by parudox at 2:04 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I've seen multiple places that white women went more for Trump this time than in 2016, does anybody know for sure whether or not this happened?

Afaict, this is based on exit polling, which not only skews Republican, but also was a minority this year (maybe ~70m election day votes compared to 100m early votes).
posted by triggerfinger at 2:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

If we're doing Philly bands, we need some Dead Milkmen
posted by SansPoint at 2:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Here's Philly Boy Roy covering The Dead Milkmen for double Philadelphia realness.
posted by sideshow at 2:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Worcester. Gloucester

Massholes pronounce those correctly! Bad examples.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

The exit polls do include early/mail voters, whom they survey by telephone. But you should always be skeptical of exit poll data. A difference of a few percentage points in a small subsample is more likely to be noise than signal.
posted by mbrubeck at 2:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

"bad things happen in Philadelphia"

I just started watching True Blood for the first time this fall. The theme song "Bad Things" from the opening credits seems relevant here.
posted by eviemath at 2:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Here guys I literally made a thread for you on how words sound please use it to your hearts delight as it’s a topic that has clearly struck a chord

https://www.metafilter.com/189302/Lets-talk-about-how-words-sound
posted by supercrayon at 2:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [59 favorites]

Multiple sources are saying FOX will call the race for Biden this evening if PA tips his way. One wonders if they'll break into Hannity to make the announcement.

The White House is "incandescent" with rage at FOX.
posted by theory at 2:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [27 favorites]

The exit polls do include early/mail voters, whom they survey by telephone.

Yeah, and we saw how well phone surveys work these days.
posted by dirigibleman at 2:18 PM on November 5, 2020

yay! someone productionized the kind of spreadsheets I keep typing data into manually.
posted by kaibutsu at 2:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Uh, isn't winning PA a walk-off HR? EVERYONE will call it if Biden is clear winner there, no?
posted by PhineasGage at 2:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Seriously isn't there a chat link like just over there? Please fucking stop with the pronunciation stuff for the sake of people who are trying to get useful news and/or are on phones.
posted by TwoStride at 2:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

I'm watching Philadelphia local news, and Count Every Vote is already on tv with an ad. The group looks like mostly ex-office holders from both parties.
posted by gladly at 2:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Yeah, it's AZ + NV that Chris Wallace said would lead Fox to declare victory for Biden. Seems like that could happen this evening too.
posted by skewed at 2:21 PM on November 5, 2020

Bringing up the bankruptcy bill in response to the point that Biden knows, today, that there's no benefit to his in supporting Republican priorities is not convincing.

It's one thing not to trust Biden based on his past positions; it's quite another to imagine that he isn't aware what actions as president will benefit him and which would not.
posted by Gelatin at 2:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Yep, if Biden wins PA that puts him at 273 EVs without NV, AZ, GA, etc
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

"That is Joe Biden, honey. He's competing with Daddy's Big Boss and trying to earn his job." Her mother replied apolitically.

"Oh. I like him." The youngster said cheerfully.

"Why do you like him?" Her mother, the child of Trump-voting Fargoans, asked evenly.

"Because when I see Daddy's Big Boss on TV, he sounds mean and angry. The Blue one seems kind."

Back 4 years ago when the big revelation of the hour was "Hunter Biden Emails" as far as I could tell the reveal was... Joe Biden is a Good Dad.

Maybe Hunter Biden isn't a mess, maybe he is in some ways, but we can for sure say that the country IS a mess. Lots of potential, great inheritance, but a mess. And if we end up with someone who wants to be Good Dad to a mess then maybe that's a start.
posted by weston at 2:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

The ideal situation is obviously for him to take NV and AZ, as well as either GA or PA or BOTH, as that would make contesting the results a lot harder for Trump and his spawn.
posted by wabbittwax at 2:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Rapidly growing 'Stop the Steal' group taken down by Facebook due to 'worrying calls for violence' at US election (Australian ABC News link)
posted by freethefeet at 2:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Yes Biden winning PA would be the end, this is just saying that FOX will call PA for Biden even if counting hasn't finished and despite the Trump legal challenges.
posted by theory at 2:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The Guardian reports (8 minutes ago):

Republican incumbent David Perdue is currently at 49.95% in the Georgia Senate race, which would force a January runoff if the numbers hold.

Perdue needed to capture 50% of the vote to win the race outright, but it is seeming more likely that he will fall below that, forcing a January runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff.

The other Senate race in Georgia is already headed to a January runoff between Republican Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock.

If both races advance to runoffs, Democrats could capture the Senate majority by flipping both seats and winning the White House.
posted by UbuRoivas at 2:29 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Trump's lead in GA is down to 8535 with the most recently released count (so it's looking good for Biden but will also be in automatic recount territory).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Watched GA and now PA press conferences - gotta say these state election officials are really darned impressive.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

Looking ahead to the almost certain Georgia runoffs, "Dem leaders warn liberal rhetoric could blow Georgia races. If 'we are going to run on Medicare for All, defund the police, socialized medicine, we're not going to win,' says Jim Clyburn."

I think he's right. What Democrats should do is pass a huge honking $3 trillion relief bill in the House in the first week of January, send it over to the Senate and then tell voters in Georgia that the only way the bill passes the Senate is if they elect the two Democrats.

That's it. Make the entire election about one clear cut issue that directly benefits voters. It's simple, it's clear cut, it's a concrete dollars and cents issue that should have wide appeal. It avoids all the hot button cultural issues that Republicans could use to blow up the election.
posted by JackFlash at 2:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [118 favorites]

Come on, Georgia, vote your Ossoff.
posted by bink at 2:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

UbuRoivas: "Perdue needed to capture 50% of the vote to win the race outright, but it is seeming more likely that he will fall below that, forcing a January runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff."

To continue with a theme, "Perdue" is similar to the French word for "you lost"
posted by chavenet at 2:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

I think he's right. What Democrats should do is pass a huge honking $3 trillion relief bill in the House in the first week of January, send it over to the Senate and then tell voters in Georgia that the only way the bill passes the Senate is if they elect the two Democrats.

Exactly so.
posted by Gelatin at 2:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

honestly I think Democrats need to pay close attention to what Stacey Abrams says voters in her state want
posted by Merus at 2:35 PM on November 5, 2020 [88 favorites]

George Conway tweet: Look, Molly, the only reason Biden has all those votes is because of all the counting. If we did less counting, he'd have fewer votes.
posted by chavenet at 2:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Honestly Democrats need to spend the next four years directly bettering the material conditions of every American they possibly can.
posted by argybarg at 2:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

When the new Senate starts on January 3rd there will be two empty chairs from Georgia pending the January 5th runoff, right? You can't fill those with holdovers.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 2:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Honestly Democrats need to spend the next FOREVER directly bettering the material conditions of every American they possibly can.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 2:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

Pink Frost: final results in the New Zealand election are due out this afternoon our time. When I woke up, I basically couldn't find any articles about that on our own news websites; all the stories are about the US election

On a related note, Der Standard, the newspaper I subscribe to and read here in Austria, has a popular live blog feature that they use to cover all kinds of longer-running events. The live blog feature allows logged-in users to comment on entries, and the active userbase always gets excited when the number of user comments on a topic approaches a new record.

Today, their first US Elections live blog passed the 86k comments mark, making it, by far, the most-commented blog, to date. The previous record was in the ~30K range.

There was a minor uproar when the paper decided to stop updating the original blog and opened a new one - posters were hoping to crack the 100K comments mark. The new elections live blog has already crossed the 10K comments mark :D

It's insane how much attention is being paid to this spectacle.
posted by syzygy at 2:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

The Biden campaign is leading trainings to help people cure ballots in GA, starting now through tomorrow afternoon, here.

It's not like other kind of phonebanking -- people appreciate being helped to fix their ballots! -- and helping Georgians get their ballots counted can be SUPER important right now.
posted by hungrytiger at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

When the new Senate starts on January 3rd there will be two empty chairs from Georgia pending the January 5th runoff, right? You can't fill those with holdovers.

Yeah, and ISTR an unfilled-at-convening seat in recent memory, '16 or '18.
posted by rhizome at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2020

"Because when I see Daddy's Big Boss on TV, he sounds mean and angry. The Blue one seems kind."

My (then) four-year-old daughter in 2016:

I like Hillary Clinton. She's nice.
I don't like Donald Trump. He's mean.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

It is my belief that
- there is no universally applicable generalization about the motivations of ANY group of voters
- 99% of voters, as individuals, are actually motivated by a variety of things, and even single-issue voters take some other preference into account, and sometimes it's the economy, and sometimes it's racism, and sometimes it's religious affiliation, and sometimes it's one of a thousand other things

Doc Bissell: [explaining to Woodrow that the town still wants him to run for mayor] Politics is a very peculiar thing, Woodrow. If they want you, they want you. They don't need reasons anymore... they find their own reasons. It's just like when a girl wants a man.

Libby: That's right. You don't need reasons. Although they're probably there.

- Hail the Conquering Hero (Preston Sturges - 1944)
posted by goalyeehah at 2:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Abehammerb Lincoln: "Honestly ~~Democrats~~ all elected officials need to spend the next FOREVER directly bettering the material conditions of every American they possibly can."

FTFY
posted by chavenet at 2:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Honestly Democrats need to spend the next four years directly bettering the material conditions of every American they possibly can.

I agree, but keep in mind that last time they tried that they got absolutely creamed in the midterms. It's the right thing to do, but it's not exactly popular.
posted by biogeo at 2:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Trump doesn't even need to use the military to interfere in the voting process. There are rules about their use domestically (the National Guard answers to governors, not the President) and open questions about whether they would actually obey his unlawful orders... which are conveniently sidestepped because Trump has full control over large federal police forces like DHS, ATF, etc. which have taken no such oath and have already been used rather abusively in the Floyd riots.
posted by meowzilla at 2:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Democrats also need to get ahead of Perdue and Loeffler assuring Georgians that of course they would vote for the relief bill by pointing out that with the Republicans in office, McConnell wouldn't even bring the bill to the floor, and only giving the chamber to the Democrats guarantees it happening. I'm sure they can find plenty of McConnell quotes about how a relief bill isn't needed.
posted by Gelatin at 2:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

GA is now < 10,000 vote difference. 43,385 to count. Trend line based on previous 30k votes counted still shows Biden winning GA.
posted by mcstayinskool at 2:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Maybe Democrats could just campaign in the GA Sen runoffs on blocking the already baked in (thanks, 2017!) Republican-designed tax increases (NYTimes, sorry) that hit in... 2021!

How this was not a response to "Joe Biden will raise your taxes" is beyond me.
posted by iceberg273 at 2:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Can we have a separate thread for armchair quarterbacking the 2021 and 2022 elections?
posted by Monochrome at 2:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

McConnell is already talking about a relief bill in the lame-duck session.
posted by PhineasGage at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

This is our moment … I love you': Cori Bush's electrifying victory speech
So, as the first Black woman, nurse, and single mother to have the honor to represent Missouri in the United States Congress, let me just say this. To the Black women. The Black girls. The nurses. The single mothers. The essential workers. This. Is. OUR. Moment.

✊
posted by supercrayon at 2:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [68 favorites]

I promise this is relevant to the election -

On top of everything else she's accomplished, Greta Thunberg has achieved a black belt in throwing shade.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

This is a very satisfying Google Sheet if you're like me and crave lots of very detailed and sunny-looking numbers. Check out the Philadelphia tab.
posted by jordemort at 2:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

How this was not a response to "Joe Biden will raise your taxes" is beyond me.

I know his policy is to not raise taxes on people earning under $400,000, but apparently "we're not gonna raise your taxes, we're gonna tax the fuck out of the 1%" is too confusing for voters.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Democrats need to ensure that every community has a free or nominal-cost clinic; high-speed broadband; clean water; nearby and highly visible renewable power; good low-cost education (vocational training, community colleges). It's the same work since forever, and it's a positive vision. And it needs to be fully owned by the Democratic Party, with local members of the party committed to connecting everyone to vital services.

What's beautiful about this is that it gets away from having to message (and lose on) polarizing social issues at the national level (while still being able to run on those issues in districts where they actually win).

Anyone who doesn't think the material credibility crisis is real is living a life nice enough where these things don't actually come up in their regular life.
posted by Ouverture at 2:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Biden Notches More Gains as Vote Counting Grinds On (Politico, and the person who created the url might not've been the same one that wrote the headline, because they went for biden-on-cusp-victory) Probably no new information for someone who's been hanging around here all day, but it did include this delightful quote from a 'frustrated Trump advisor':

“Watching Trump’s lead in states evaporate or disappear because of mail-in votes is some galactic-level karma.”

posted by box at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

>Republican Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock.

at least that Lieberman dick didn't screw up that vote.

(R) candidates* got 2,403,824 votes and (D)s got 2,331,067 so a (D) take isn't a cakewalk, but Loeffler is such a terrible person so maybe there's a chance??

* what's with Georgia running an Open Primary on Election Day??
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

apparently "we're not gonna raise your taxes, we're gonna tax the fuck out of the 1%" is too confusing for voters

So is the concept of progressive taxation.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 2:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

The implication, rarely stated outright but notably hinted at by Reagan's reference to "welfare queens," is that people of color benefit from taxes taken from white people.

Being a white Canadian kid on welfare during the Reagan years, I felt like he was talking about people like my family.

I didn't realize how much it was racism that undermined American welfare until I listened to a series of podcasts in 2016 - coinciding with the 20th anniversary of Clinton's (spit!) "welfare reform" (aka gutting). The Uncertain Hour - White Gloves, Aluminum Cans, and Plasma. I haven't listened again recently, but what I recall is that welfare for women with families had been originally set up to support the widows of WW2 soldiers - and black widows and other single mothers were kept out of the programs by discriminatory social workers (owners of the aforesaid "white gloves"). They fought for their rights - and the (white) nation turned against welfare.

It's a complicated history - all over the Anglo-sphere, the 80s and 90s were a retrenchment in all sorts of social spending, including places like the UK (where the poor are by the vast majority white). But everywhere, support for social benefits is about perceiving the people receiving them as being like you, being people who are struggling and need help and that one day it could be you.
posted by jb at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Re: McConnell saying he'll only approve Biden's cabinet picks if they're centrist:

@dynamicsymmetry
I cannot yet quite articulate why but my gut instinct is that this is a huge sign of weakness on his part. [thread]
posted by triggerfinger at 2:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

From the NYT: "Pennsylvania’s top election official says it may take longer than expected to complete the count there. Her office says about 326,000 mail ballots still need to be counted"
posted by elwoodwiles at 3:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Re: McConnell saying he'll only approve Biden's cabinet picks if they're centrist:

Fuck that. Elections have consequences. Did he demand that from IMPOTUS?

And how about Supreme Court picks?
posted by kirkaracha at 3:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

From day one McConnell will do whatever he can to fuck up a Democrat President. Just like he did with Obama. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs a reality check.
posted by awfurby at 3:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [33 favorites]

apparently "we're not gonna raise your taxes, we're gonna tax the fuck out of the 1%" is too confusing for voters

So is the concept of progressive taxation.

There was an ad that I saw a lot that went something like, 'Joe Biden says he's not going to raise taxes on the middle class. Joe Biden is lying."
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:06 PM on November 5, 2020

This is a very satisfying Google Sheet if you're like me and crave lots of very detailed and sunny-looking numbers. Check out the Philadelphia tab.

Sorry, after Tuesday I can only deal with Things That Have Actually Happened, not projections. Too soon!
posted by kirkaracha at 3:06 PM on November 5, 2020

Chatham is Savannah - Blue
Clayton is Atlanta - Ridiculously Blue
Cobb is Atlanta - Closer to balanced
Floyd is based on Rome - Red
Forsyth is a Suburb of Atlanta - Red
Fulton is Atlanta - Super Blue
Gwinnett is Atlanta - Blue but not ridiculously Blue
Harris is rural - very red
Laurens is rural - red
Taylor is rural - red

I'm a little confused about Harris since it's sparsely populated and they are listing 99% complete so not sure if that's a good number of votes. So really the question is whether Clayton, Gwinnett and Fulton will go convincingly blue and that Savannah trends fairly blue.
posted by vuron at 3:08 PM on November 5, 2020

And how about Supreme Court picks?

It is of course inappropriate to vote on a potential Supreme Court pick when the next election is only _____ days away.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

JUST NOW: Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward calls Fox News “a channel controlled by socialists” after standing by their call for Arizona to go for Biden.

They've begun to cannibalize themselves in a giant nonsense ouroboros.
posted by phunniemee at 3:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward calls Fox News “a channel controlled by socialists” after standing by their call for Arizona to go for Biden.

New rule: you can only refer to socialism negatively if you can explain what it is and why it would be bad in one paragraph (3-4 sentences). Bonus points if you can explain why socialism is A-OK in the military and Medicare but not for whatever you're fussing about.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

CNN banner — President Trump to Make Remarks at 6:30PM ET. They’re also showing clips of White House staff setting up the briefing room.
posted by cenoxo at 3:09 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Don't forget farmer subsidies, kirkaracha...
posted by PhineasGage at 3:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Just a couple of election random notes

Steve Bannon calls for Dr. Fauci and FBI Director Wray to be beheaded "as a warning to federal bureaucrats" -- Madeline Peltz on twitter.

(CW: Violence)

Sheri McClatchy — Mississippi election commissioner — rolls up on a black woman and gets her ass beat -- Chris Evans on twitter.
posted by valkane at 3:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

It is of course inappropriate to vote on a potential Supreme Court pick when the next election is only _____ days away.

Let's just face reality: It is inappropriate to vote on a potential Supreme Court pick when the current president is not the same party as the current Senate majority.
posted by mrgoat at 3:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

At this point, there needs to be a massive chyron under all of Trump's public statements with immediate rebuttals on his lies. Have a button for "this is a lie" ready to go
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

My god, please call it for Biden and let us get on with living.
posted by elwoodwiles at 3:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

They've begun to cannibalize themselves in a giant nonsense ouroboros.

There's no cannibalization in a nonsense ouroboros: they just understand their base doesn't understand or doesn't care to understand how these conflicting messages can co-exist (or won't remember in a day).

That is the terrifying beauty of the Q Anon megaconspiracy: it syncretizes and absorbs everything, even if none of it makes sense.
posted by Ouverture at 3:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

They won’t call it for Biden for another 2-3 hours at least- gotta get those sweet prime time $$$.
posted by susiswimmer at 3:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Republicans call everything they don’t like “Socialism” they way old people all every gaming console “Nintendo”.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 3:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [69 favorites]

Facebook is very close to becoming a conspiracy singularity at this point. All sorts of easily disproven claims being infinitely repeated as fact and consumed by an audience that looks for no news sources that don't already conform to their ideological requirements.

It's really kind of disgusting that Facebook seems to be basically about monetizing fear and hatred at this point. I guess that's sort of a community.
posted by vuron at 3:15 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Just saw this on Twitter: given the apparent voting requirements in Georgia, all of Metafilter could move there the day before the run-off election and vote. C'mon, we can do this!
posted by PhineasGage at 3:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

MetaFilter: basically about monetizing fear and hatred at this point. I guess that's sort of a community.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

My god, please call it for Biden and let us get on with living.

Unfortunately, I fear you skipped some steps: My god, please call it for Biden and let us get on with...
- Waiting for the recounts
- Waiting for the lawsuit results
- Worrying about the possibility of faithless electors
- Worrying about the possibility of tweet-encouraged civil violence
- Worrying about the possibility of government-led violence

THEN get on with living. Including GOTV etc. for the GA special elections.
posted by daisyace at 3:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Stealing this from twitter but I saw someone put a wish out that they call PA for Biden during Trump's address so we can watch his soul break in two live, like Ralph Wiggum.
posted by msbutah at 3:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [45 favorites]

That is the terrifying beauty of the Q Anon megaconspiracy: it syncretizes and absorbs everything, even if none of it makes sense.

For Schmitt, indeed, the category of the political devours all other categories, not merely political philosophy. There is no escaping politics into a disinterested realm of any sort.

Carl Schmitt and the Critique of Lawfare (David Luban, 2011)
posted by dmh at 3:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I saw someone put a wish out that they call PA for Biden during Trump's address so we can watch his soul break in two live, like Ralph Wiggum.

he has no soul, though
posted by Ahmad Khani at 3:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

The rest of the world has had it with US presidents, Trump or otherwise

Our American friends are worried about their president. They are telling us – even in what may be his final months in office – that Donald Trump is sick, that he is a fascist, that he is a grotesque parody of a proper US president.

As a long-suffering citizen of a world run by US presidents, may I remind them that he is not very different from the other presidents that I and the rest of the non-American world have suffered for the past half century. Americans say they are better people than Trump. In solidarity, one might be tempted to say that, yes, sure, we are also better people than Trump. But one is compelled to add that although those former presidents might have had better syntax than Trump, worn better-fitted suits, had finer dance moves, weren’t proud “pussy grabbers”, or cunning tax dodgers, being a world-class bully has always been a part of the job.

The US has always elected a bully, nurtured him and asked him to go out in the world and do the presidential thing: fight the evil that is the rest of us. At the same time they have expected their president to be nice at home, have mercy on their Thanksgiving turkey and keep talking about the American dream and affordable healthcare.

Abroad, US presidents have wrought havoc, invaded and destroyed places whose names they could never pronounce, hosted murderous dictators from around the world at Camp David and found even more bloodthirsty ones to replace them.

Trump has just brought all that bullying home.

posted by clawsoon at 3:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [30 favorites]

Based upon the current rate that Biden is catching up in PA it's likely that sometime between 100k-120k votes counted from now Biden should pass Trump. At that point we can let out a collective sigh of relief and states like NV, GA and AZ can finish without fearing the wrath of MAGA in that being the state that could put Biden over the top. I'm kind of thinking Pittsburgh and Philly would relish the thought of being the areas to put the dagger in the heart though.
posted by vuron at 3:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Unfortunately, I fear you skipped some steps...

Noooooooooooooo. Alright fine.
posted by elwoodwiles at 3:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

[WaPo] More than 150,000 ballots were caught in Postal Service processing facilities and not delivered by Election Day
posted by Westringia F. at 3:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

states like NV, GA and AZ can finish without fearing the wrath of MAGA

With the vote this close, I'm pretty sure those states can continue to fear the wrath of MAGA regardless of what else happens in the next several hours/years.
posted by aspersioncast at 3:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I know Osoff is an Obama style moderate. I'm not sure about the other candidate, but somehow I doubt they are a raging leftist either. I'm sure they'll campaign during the runoff the same way they campaigned prior, maybe with the added incentive that they'll be able to bring COVID relief, which would be smart. Why are Dem leaders bringing up left wing policies and using right wing framing to describe those policies then? Who are they talking to? Can we at least enjoy Trump getting kicked out of office for five minutes before the left blaming/punching begins?
posted by eagles123 at 3:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Misc. link roundup.

More than 150,000 ballots were caught in U.S. Postal Service processing facilities and not delivered by Election Day, agency data shows, including more than 12,000 in five of the states that have yet to be called for either President Trump or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

ICE Attempts to Deport Multiple Witnesses in Gynecologic Surgery Scandal (my own note here: "gynecologic surgery scandal" is an unwieldy euphemism for "genocide")

USPS finds 815 remaining ballots in court-mandated sweeps in Texas

posted by Lonnrot at 3:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

C-SPAN NOVEMBER 5, 2020
Campaign 2020
President Trump News Conference
President Trump delivers remarks in the White House.
posted by cenoxo at 3:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

No comment
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:29 PM on November 5, 2020

Nope.

Not doomwatching that...
posted by Windopaene at 3:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Maybe he'll concede.
posted by mazola at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

JUST NOW: Arizona GOP Chairwoman Kelli Ward calls Fox News “a channel controlled by socialists” after standing by their call for Arizona to go for Biden.

Sounds like somebody wants a job on Trump's new network or OANN. Who look to be positioning as further right than Fox by slamming them for occasionally telling the truth.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Those speeches as much as anything else led to my drinking problem. (raises glass, throws drink in own face)
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 3:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

[WaPo] More than 150,000 ballots were caught in Postal Service processing facilities and not delivered by Election Day

"The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it."

Yes, USPS is privatized, but the constant ratfucking by Congress, Trump, and deJoy badically makes them the US Government's gimp.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Maybe he'll concede.

Hahahahaha
posted by Lonnrot at 3:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

mazola: "Maybe he'll con~~cede~~."

more likely
posted by chavenet at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020

"That is the terrifying beauty of the Q Anon megaconspiracy: it syncretizes and absorbs everything, even if none of it makes sense."

Yeah, it's more like the Trapper Keeper episode on South Park than a nonsense Ouroboros.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020

C-SPAN NOVEMBER 5, 2020
Campaign 2020
President Trump News Conference
President Trump delivers remarks in the White House.

Maybe he just wants to reassure as that he's alive and well
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I'll take the hit, I'll watch and report in what he says. I'm already drinking.
posted by mrgoat at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

Osoff is slick, smart, young and connected which seems to be a big reason why he's being pushed so hard in Georgia by the Democrats. I think he's definitely be acceptable as a fairly reliable is centrist Democrat representing what is liable to be a very purple state.

Warnock is a pastor who seems to have a very good sense of humor as evidenced by his most recent political ad. Seems very likable at least from a superficial inspection.

I'm out of state but I'd really have zero concerns about donating to both of their campaigns. Both are much better than their odious and corrupt counterparts.
posted by vuron at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

75k left to go in PA!
posted by SansPoint at 3:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Good old C-SPAN. I wish all tv networks switched the cameras on twenty minutes before the show starts.
posted by box at 3:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

world have suffered for the past half century. Americans say they are better people than Trump
As a long-suffering citizen of a world run by US presidents, may I remind them that he is not very different from the other presidents that I and the rest of the non-American

Wow, this non-American says please don't speak for the rest of us. Every non-American I know is anxiously waiting the results, terrified Trump will still win.
posted by daybeforetheday at 3:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

If we're going to do Airplane!, then I get to play "Jiggly Jell-o Mold."
posted by sexyrobot at 3:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Maybe he'll concede.

Let us all be extra vigilant in the days ahead, lest we hear "he's conceded" when someone's actually just stating the obvious: "he's conceited."
posted by armeowda at 3:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

[WaPo] More than 150,000 ballots were caught in Postal Service processing facilities and not delivered by Election Day

DeJoy must be brought up on charges; election tampering, malfeasance, whatever will stick. And with Trump out of office, how likely is his donor to be willing to take the fall for him?
posted by Gelatin at 3:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [26 favorites]

I'll take the hit, I'll watch and report in what he says. I'm already drinking.

Thank you kindly. I keep inching closer to it with my remote, then backing off; I can't make myself hit play.
posted by invincible summer at 3:35 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I'm on the West Coast but it's after 5 pm in DC, so if I can bring myself to watch the press conference I'm allowed to drink, right?
posted by PhineasGage at 3:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

PhineasGage: It's always 5 o'clock somewhere
posted by SansPoint at 3:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Every non-American I know is anxiously waiting the results, terrified Trump will still win.

I haven't felt this sick since we saw that Ronald Reagan film.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 3:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

@kadhim live-tweeting a hearing in Philadelphia regarding the Trump campaign seeking an injunction to stop counting ballots in Philadelphia while Republican observers are not present.

Narrator: Republican observers are present.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:38 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

By the way, the thread outlining why McConnell's ultimatum on cabinet picks is a sign of weakness, not strength, cited above by triggerfinger is excellent.
posted by Gelatin at 3:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

The best thing for America’s future is for @realDonaldTrump to go to total war over this election to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long. Donald Trump Jr.
posted by dmh at 3:39 PM on November 5, 2020

University of Texas Law School professor Steve Vladeck: "In case you're wondering why none of these Trump lawsuits are going to go anywhere:" (and then there's an image of what appears to be a partial transcript of court proceedings in Pennsylvania)

'Trump has gone to federal court seeking an injunction against Philadelphia to stop the county of "any ballots so long as Republican observers are not present".

Judge Paul Diamond to the Trump campaign lawyer:
Diamond: Are your observers in the counting room?
Trump campaign: "There's a non zero number of people in the room"
Diamond: "I'm asking you as a member of the bar of this court: are people representing the Donald J Trump for president, representing the plaintiffs, in that room?"
Trump campaign lawyer: "Yes."
Diamond: "I'm sorry, then what's your problem?"
posted by cashman at 3:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [87 favorites]

Good old C-SPAN. I wish all tv networks switched the cameras on twenty minutes before the show starts.

I'm watching too out of some morbid fascination and I'm reminded of a Grateful Dead friend who also taped and would start one of his tape decks early to get the audience and room and you'd get these sorts of 10/20 minutes of people talking about going to get a soda or beer and what the plans were later that night, and he'd go after the show until he broke down the last deck....

SO, I'd be driving overnight to get to a show, and the encore stops, and you know, you let the tape just go until the end and... There's the walk-off music... There's the walk off music ending. There's the guys breaking down the chairs... Very eerie at 3am at 75 MPH.
posted by mikelieman at 3:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

AOC is not a lightning rod. She is a successful progressive female politician who is constantly being attacked by mysognist GOP partisans and some Dem centrists. 100% of the "lightning" responsibility belongs to those throwing the bolts.

Another case where I don’t think we need to get redirected to moralizing (about things most of us agree with) in a mostly strategic/structural conversation? The better response about AOC is that, yeah, she’s really unpopular with Republicans, but she’s popular with young Democrats/potential Democrats in a party that is gonna have a real problem if it doesn’t cultivate more people like that.
posted by atoxyl at 3:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

With Trump about to speak, might be a good time to remember there's a MetaTalk thread for recipes, nice stories, and pictures of pets right now.
posted by biogeo at 3:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Q: Are you a member of Metafilter?
A: I have posted a non zero number of comments to this website.
posted by nubs at 3:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [77 favorites]

I've been watching Fox News for 3 days straight now.
Curiously, they keep describing Biden as being "on the precipice" of becoming president, which is a decidedly odd use of language.
posted by chavenet at 3:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

GOP Women Break Party Record for Number of New House Members
posted by clawsoon at 3:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I've been watching Fox News for 3 days straight now.

Jesus, how you gonna wash that off? I'm so sorry.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

I know he's not going to take questions after his statement, but i'd sure like to hear a member of the press begin with "Mr. ex-president..."
posted by OHenryPacey at 3:45 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I've got CNN on and the banner is 'President Trump to Make Remarks Soon'. Not 'Speak', or 'Address the Nation'... but 'Make Remarks'.

I can hear my Grandma's voice. 'Ooh, listen to Mrs. So-And-So across the road, hanging over her garden gate, making remarks.'
posted by Cardinal Fang at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Washington Post has a muted live stream of the (still not begun) press conference just below their map on the home page. I'm definitely not listening but I'm curious about how he appears.
posted by feloniousmonk at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2020

For EV purposes I'm claiming a non zero number of states. (Sorry, this is all colliding after days of so little sleep. I picked the wrong week to quit... etc. etc.)
posted by PhineasGage at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Jesus, how you gonna wash that off? I'm so sorry.

It's ok, they're all socialists now.
posted by invincible summer at 3:46 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

And he's on....."update on efforts to protect integrity"..."blah blah illegal votes"..."steal election"...Christ that was an opening of lies
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:47 PM on November 5, 2020

Trump: If you count the legal votes, I easily win.

Great.
posted by No One Ever Does at 3:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Hm. This is new. Declaring victory and declaring every other vote illegal.
posted by Lord_Pall at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

He's just claimed victory from "legal votes".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Trump: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win."
posted by Black Cordelia at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2020

Wow, claiming that votes against him are illegal just like that... not surpising but yet disappointing
posted by Behemoth, in no. 302-bis, with the Browning at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

FUCK TRUMP!!!
posted by Pendragon at 3:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [31 favorites]

I don't know why I expected anything different, but he's just throwing his own shit at the walls.
posted by PhineasGage at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Look, this is the same shtick as the COVID testing. If you don't test, case counts don't go up; if you only count my votes, I win.

We deserve better than reheated bullshit, Don!
posted by nubs at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Sorry... I have been drinking..... heavily...
posted by Pendragon at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

As expected, just absolute fucking trash from this guy right out of the gates. Since Twitter is slapping fact checks on his tweets for once, he's decided to just take it straight to prime time, because he knows the networks won't do the same.
posted by triggerfinger at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Here's a tidbit I just looked up...there are no residency time requirements to vote in Georgia. you can register the day you move there. So what kind of energy would it take to move enough Dems into Georgia for a week in January for the run-off?
posted by OHenryPacey at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Trump: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win."

I thought that Downfall video was supposed to be a parody
posted by jokeefe at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

"University of Texas Law School professor Steve Vladeck: "In case you're wondering why none of these Trump lawsuits are going to go anywhere:""

My favorite one is the one where the Republican party claims that a bunch of ballots were moved from one location to another (as happens when you, you know, count them, or take them from the precinct to the board of elections) and therefore have ceased to exist, because Republicans have yet to achieve object permanence.
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [29 favorites]

Looking for who from the Republicans rebuke this. If anyone.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

god after this can we just collectively as a group ban 'easily' and maybe a couple other of the arrogant man know it all catch phrases.
posted by FritoKAL at 3:49 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

So do we just ignore him now?
posted by Lord_Pall at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Brian Williams cut off Trump on MSNBC about 30 seconds in. It was glorious.
posted by DevilsAdvocate at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [47 favorites]

I've followed Daniel Dale's coverage since he was the Toronto Star's City Hall bureau chief. In all that time, I've never seen him use anything remotely approaching profanity. I fell like this could tip him the fuck over into a flurry of f-bombs:

Trump begins by lying that "if you count the legal votes, I easily win." Absolute garbage.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

Faux News has all positive tickers.
posted by glaucon at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020

The rhetoric is as dangerous as ever, and I don't mean to diminish that.

But boy howdy, this is as exhausted and frightened as I've ever seen him. He literally looks like he's listing to port.
posted by armeowda at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

From Guardian's liveblog:

Trump begins press conference

He has begun by illegitimately, prematurely declaring a victory – launching into a series of lies about the elections.

So, yeah. About what we all expected. Enjoy the liver damage.
posted by Lonnrot at 3:50 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Apparently Republican Party now the "party of inclusion". Mind boggles.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:51 PM on November 5, 2020

As expected, just absolute fucking trash from this guy right out of the gates. Since Twitter is slapping fact checks on his tweets for once, he's decided to just take it straight to prime time, because he knows the networks won't do the same.

Gee, seems like he should have been de-platformed years ago, so the normal press push back was possible.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

He's literally just complaining about polls right now.
posted by No One Ever Does at 3:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I tuned in for about 60 seconds before I couldn't take it any further. It's fairly low-energy whining. Despite his insistence that he's won it sounds like he knows he's lost. He might not have much more fight left in him. Let's hope.
posted by biogeo at 3:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Chyron on CNN was initially "Without any evidence, Trump says he's being cheated".

Unfortunately they've toned it down to "Defiant Trump claims he's being cheated out of victory" now.

Edit: yay, they changed it back!
posted by wilberforce at 3:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Trump: "If you count the legal votes, I easily win."

Amazing. Amazing. Amazing. I have no words. This is unreal.
posted by dmh at 3:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

My thoughts about Trump voters.
posted by Pendragon at 3:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

There's a non zero number of wannabe shithole country tinpot dictators in the news conference.
posted by UbuRoivas at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Having grown up in Southern Illinois, this is a dog whistle for "Only white votes should be counted."
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

How does one forcefully evict someone from the whitehouse?

Or should we just move the capitol someplace else for a bit?
posted by Lord_Pall at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2020

The Washington Post live feed also has a chyron "Without any evidence, Trump falsely claims there are illegal votes."
posted by biogeo at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

"I won Pennsylvania by a lot" - sure you did buddy.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:53 PM on November 5, 2020

I think you're right, I wasn't watching the stream because I generally can't look at him but damn that is some smooth ass hair
posted by Behemoth, in no. 302-bis, with the Browning at 3:54 PM on November 5, 2020

Complaining about how the Poles (lol) were purposely wrong, blah de blah be blah. He’s such. A fucking. Shithead.
posted by sucre at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Smoother than shark skin?
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Teegeeack, I think his hair is designed to cause video compression blur.
posted by joeyh at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

At this point the Philly ballots finally coming in is just putting him out of his misery old Yeller style.
posted by Justinian at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I swear they're doing a blur on his hair. Watching on the ABC stream, and then checked the WaPo stream to verify. Is it just me or does anyone else see this?

The reality distortion field breaking down, maybe?
posted by nubs at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Alright, he's just complaining about votes being counted now, I'm out.
posted by No One Ever Does at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020

I swear they're doing a blur on his hair.

It could just be that video compression algorithms are having a hard time defining something as unrealistic as that mop and so just giving it a pass?
posted by linux at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

That looks like a compression artifact on his hair. Even algorithms can't deal with it.
posted by Kadin2048 at 3:55 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

How does one forcefully evict someone from the whitehouse?

Third Infantry Regiment. The Old Guard. That's the folks that guard Arlington and perform ceremonial duties, but are also trained infantrymen.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

He's unable to say he could lose .... 'down a little bit', he can't even say the word, hilarious.
posted by Behemoth, in no. 302-bis, with the Browning at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Teegeeack, I think his hair is designed to cause video compression blur.

It encodes a copyright statement.
posted by mikelieman at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020

real winner vibes here
posted by theodolite at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

They counted votes after the Poles closed!

(snark, not part of his current rant.)
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020

I haven't felt this sick since we saw that Ronald Reagan film.

Are you talking about SCP-1981?
posted by acb at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [17 favorites]

This is the lowest-energy pep rally since the video for Smells Like Teen Spirit.
posted by armeowda at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Not sure if it's been posted yet in here, but i just found this website via hackernews which actually gives a good representation of the voting data. Perhaps better than refreshing 538, but who am i kidding i'll probably do both.

Data is scraped from NYT.

https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
posted by escher at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

"A pipe burst in a location" in Georgia. A strong leader would declare war on plumbers. #StopPlumbersCrack
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Cut his mic, his two minute are up.
posted by Liquidwolf at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

This is like watching the final scene of "Raging Bull."
posted by PhineasGage at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

He tried the same "legal votes" schtick in '16 to claim the popular vote until his stupid voter fraud commission fell apart with zero evidence to back his claims.
posted by p3t3 at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020

COVID makes hair fall out, no? I bet they had to use some of that spray-can hair to fill in the gaps.
posted by another zebra at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020

GOP Women Break Party Record for Number of New House Members

Selling out to the racial and gendered capitalism sure pays well if you can stomach it.
posted by Ouverture at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

In any reasonable universe this would be one of the most humiliating political spectacles in living memory but I don't even know anymore. Holy shit, though. I actually had to turn the volume on. He's still talking! I can't get over how blatantly pathetic this is while simultaneously it's probably inspiring attempts to commit some truly evil acts.
posted by feloniousmonk at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

"People using binoculars. Tremendous problems caused" - The fuck?
posted by inflatablekiwi at 3:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

damn that is some smooth ass hair

I think it's just compression artifact, but I suppose he might have hair transplants...
posted by biogeo at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2020

I'm physically ill watching this ....
posted by Pendragon at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

How many networks have cut away from this, and will CSPAN join them?
posted by joeyh at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

oh my god I don't know how Daniel Dale has kept it together for this long, his twitter stream is almost incandescent
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Looking for who from the Republicans rebuke this. If anyone.

Serious comment now, this is what I have been keeping an eye on and what I am more concerned about. We all knew Trump would declare himself President-for-Life regardless of which direction the actual votes went. The big question has been who would follow him, who would enable him, who would enact violence in his name? And, so far, I am... cautiously ambivalent. Not optimistic yet, but not as outright pessimistic. I am not as certain as I was a week ago that most Republicans will follow him. I think we may begin to see more attempt to distance themselves from him (don't let them - they will only do this if they have come to believe an outright coup would fail - every single one of them is a fascist and needs to be removed from power). It seems like the media and state officials have been more prepared for this scenario than I was worried about, as virtually no one has played along with him yet. His voter base... I don't know. I still think we are going to see some domestic terrorist incidents once Biden can be declared winner. I have no real idea how bad that will be, but everyone be aware and stay as safe as you can. Regardless of how the coming months shake down, the US is in an extremely dangerous and volatile situation right now.
posted by Lonnrot at 3:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Tell Eva to give him the pistol.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 3:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [28 favorites]

"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
posted by SansPoint at 3:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Been waiting all day for someone to say this, so thank you, Daniel Dale:

"It's amazing how those mail-in ballots are so one-sided," Trump says after relentlessly trashing mail-in ballots and thus getting his supporters to not want to use them.
posted by martin q blank at 4:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

This is extremely dangerous. This will haunt us for decades.
posted by glaucon at 4:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

SansPoint, is that a real quote?
posted by biogeo at 4:00 PM on November 5, 2020

damn that is some smooth ass hair

I think it's just compression artifact, but I suppose he might have hair transplants...

I know he's vain but ass hair transplants are a new low even for him
posted by StarkRoads at 4:00 PM on November 5, 2020

"Detroit is another place." Fact checkers confirm 100% accuracy in Trump statement - first time this election.
posted by inflatablekiwi at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

CBS cut away after five minutes, which was WAY too long.
posted by triggerfinger at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Trump campaign: "There's a non zero number of people in the room"

Hmmm. Minus three is a non-zero number. 3.333... is a non-zero number. The square root of negative 1 is a non-zero number.

They spend a lot of time in law school on clever turns of phrase but apparently not much time on math.
posted by JackFlash at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

biogeo: Yes... it's from Animal House
posted by SansPoint at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

re: Republican reactions - this from last night's edition of the excellent Letters from an American blog by historian Heather Cox Richardson:

Republican leaders have been surprisingly quick to turn on the president. Last night, the Fox News Channel was the first to call the state of Arizona for Democratic candidate Joe Biden which, according to Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair, led Trump to call Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Fox News Channel, to demand a retraction. Murdoch, who has said for months that Trump would lose the election, refused.

Today, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told reporters that “claiming you’ve won the election is different from finishing the counting.” Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who caught the coronavirus when he helped to prepare Trump for the first presidential debate, told ABC News, “There’s just no basis to make that argument…. There just isn’t. All these votes have to be counted that are in now.” Among others, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Republicans all, echoed McConnell and Christie.

posted by kristi at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

It's from Animal House...
posted by Windopaene at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020

Let me hear you say, this shit is bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S!
This shit is bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S!
Again this shit is bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S!
This shit is bananas, B-A-N-A-N-A-S!
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

More votes in from GA looks like, gap is now down to 3600.
posted by biogeo at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [16 favorites]

The papers he's flipping through and reading off of sound/look like glossy magazine paper?
posted by ApathyGirl at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

64k to go in PA!
posted by SansPoint at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Since i"m not about to ragewatch Trump spin lie after lie I guess this is basically just a big free Trump Rally where he can go full Festivus with the listing of the grievances? I wish the Networks would look past ratings and focus on actually trying to do the public a service by refusing to give a platform to delusional conspiracy theories.

If Trump wants to go full banana republic dictator mode let him go on one of the infotainment shows like Hannity or Carlson instead of presenting this nonsense as newsworthy.
posted by vuron at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020

Please let us know real quotes versus joke quotes.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

Can we not with the quotes from movies? I am trying to use the thread to get real news.
posted by all about eevee at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [26 favorites]

And the gap in PA is down to 64k votes! It's happening!
posted by un petit cadeau at 4:02 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

If you look at who is getting sent to contest results, I think Trump and the party have split somewhat.
posted by drezdn at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2020

I made the "Don't you think he looks tired?" quip a few threads ago, but, I'm listening to my husband watching this and Trump really does sound tired. So low energy. Are they withholding his Adderall? Sad!
posted by Ruki at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

NYT says Georgia is down to a 3600-vote difference with 100,000 left to count.
posted by mmoncur at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

This is, of course, the exact opposite of shocking given, uh, Trump.
At the same time it is profoundly shocking and utterly devastating to watch a sitting president say the stuff he is saying right now.
posted by Hairy Lobster at 4:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

coward! Can’t even face the media questions.
posted by directnine at 4:04 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

He has been replaced with a one-of-a-kind, whine-o-matic, low-energy robot.
posted by double bubble at 4:04 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

He repeated himself like my mom does on phone calls after four beers and a couple xanax.
posted by spikeleemajortomdickandharryconnickjrmints at 4:04 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Hearing "Are you just a sore loser?" come out over the chorus of journalists as he tried to escape made that almost worth watching
posted by Behemoth, in no. 302-bis, with the Browning at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [60 favorites]

He sure didn't sound like someone who actually thought the election was being stolen. He sounded like a boring guy complaining about a shitty day at work.
posted by theodolite at 4:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Ceaucescu on the balcony.
posted by acb at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

The papers he's flipping through and reading off of sound/look like glossy magazine paper?

He's reportedly really fond of Sharpies. Somebody probably had to find coated paper that they don't bleed through.
posted by Kadin2048 at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

The anchor on the Washington Post live feed delivered immediate fact-checking remarks refuting Trump's claims. It's pretty clear they had it prepared and ready to go, since this speech was inevitable.
posted by biogeo at 4:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

mmoncur : “NYT says Georgia is down to a 3600-vote difference with 100,000 left to count.”

How does he not lose, at this point?

We need something like a Times Square ball drop to measure this countdown.
posted by SillyShepherd at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

THis is the bit I've been looking forward to, when the rest of the political Right turns on the Trump family. What possible reason is there for anybody at all to stay loyal to someone who's incapable of returning loyalty, and who's not on the make anymore?
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

It feels like I'm finally starting not to doom scroll but glee scroll.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [23 favorites]

Well, to be fair, he is having a shitty day at work.
posted by Ruki at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

Hey, I've known y'all since at least 2008, so I feel comfortable sharing this.

That man ain't happy. And I'm happy knowing that he's having a shittier fucking night than I'm having. If that makes me a shitty person, so be it. But that's how I feel.
posted by mikelieman at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [78 favorites]

acb: I'll just leave this here.
posted by SansPoint at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Wow. All of that bullshit and all I could think was that it would be nice if someone would just ask if he had anything that he could factually support, and if not, could he just shut up? I mean, I get that wouldn’t ever happen, but it was really an arm-around-the-shoulder “come on, grand dad, let’s go back into the house. Matlock is on, and I’ll get your slippers” moment.

And no questions? Fucking coward.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:07 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Closing my eyes, I couldn't tell any more if I was listening to Donald Trump or Seth Meyers.
posted by flabdablet at 4:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Daniel Dale: I've read or watched all of Trump's speeches since 2016. This is the most dishonest speech he has ever given.

Dang.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

In the Philadelphia hearing, parties agree to 60 observers each. Judge Paul Diamond dismisses suit to stop counting in light of the agreement.

Diamond issued a warning to both parties reminding them if he determined "one side or the other has not acted in good faith" then he had "jurisdiction to police the conduct of parties and counsel before me".

"If we can show the world that both sides can act reasonably to resolve this, that would be wonderful."

posted by DevilsAdvocate at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Not sure where the 100,000 in Georgia comes from. Nate Cohn says 20,000.
posted by argybarg at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Today, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told reporters that “claiming you’ve won the election is different from finishing the counting.” Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who caught the coronavirus when he helped to prepare Trump for the first presidential debate, told ABC News, “There’s just no basis to make that argument…. There just isn’t. All these votes have to be counted that are in now.” Among others, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Republicans all, echoed McConnell and Christie.

Those long knives sure come out quick, huh?

The part where everyone abandons him is one of my favorite parts.

Also makes me feel safer about the transition. He’s always been a coward who boasts and then caves with pushback, but it’s nice to know the folks with the power to make trouble have already cut bait.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:11 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Maybe the post steroid slump? You usually don't have to taper for a short course, but who knows how much they were actually giving him, plus his adrenal glands were probably borked to begin with. Maybe that orange skin ain't a spray tan after all!
posted by basalganglia at 4:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I've not watched much of any television, but have CNN on right now. They are destroying him. It's kind of hilarious.
posted by elwoodwiles at 4:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Ok, I took notes, here's the quick rundown (Warning: description of whiny lying asshole ahead):

Claims efforts to protect the integrity of the election.
"If you count the legal votes, I clearly win", a theme that will be repeated.

Claims made:
Won Florida, Iowa, Indian, Ohio,
Election interference by "big media" and "big tech"
Pollsters got it "knowingly" wrong
Blue wave false
Big red wave
Kept the senate
Lost zero races in the house
Won the largest share of non-white voters in 60 years
Polling was election interference, and that polls were phony, and were suppression polls
His observers were being told to be 60, 70, 80, 100 feet away, and outside the building
Mail in ballots all one sided, implying cheating
Claims to have won Georgia by a lot, but it got "whittled down"
Claims to have won Michigan and Wisconsin, but it got whittled down
Democrats are trying to steal and rig an election and commit fraud
Poll observers kept so far away from the building in Philadelphia that they need binoculars, and also that the windows are being paper over with cardboard
A bunch of garbled nonsense about mail in ballots, that I honestly couldn't really follow, as he clearly has no idea how mail in voting works
Claims poll workers in Detroit were jumping in front of observers, and that it "became a little bit dangerous"
Doesn't want to count any votes "Cast after election day" (by which he means mail in votes received after election day), falsely claims that laws support that
Says there will be a lot of litigation
Says "We can both claim the states, judges will have to rule"

Took no questions. Someone shouted "Are you being a sore loser?" at him as he walked out.
posted by mrgoat at 4:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [26 favorites]

Reading /r/conservative live thread, and "flaired" conservative users are saying stuff like

Anyone else paid atention to how he walked out? Seemed like the walk of a tired/defeated man.

Man, Trump is really not a great communicator haha

The outcome of this election will be a lot easier to swallow if you remember that being conservative is bigger than Trump

And a bunch of /r/the_donald bullshit obvs.
posted by joeyh at 4:13 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

The funny and sad thing about this is that America really does have its own genuine crackpot authoritarian running a coup at last, just the kind it installed around the world
posted by adamvasco at 4:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

But one is compelled to add that although those former presidents might have had better syntax than Trump, worn better-fitted suits, had finer dance moves, weren’t proud “pussy grabbers”, or cunning tax dodgers, being a world-class bully has always been a part of the job. The US has always elected a bully...

Like that time Obama bullied 'em into awarding him the Nobel Peace Prize. Helluva "dance move."

Facebook bans ‘STOP THE STEAL’ group Trump allies were using to organize protests against vote counting (WaPo, Nov. 5) The group, which had attracted more than 360,000 members, was among widespread efforts by conservative activists to spark protests challenging the legitimacy of the election.

Pennsylvania secretary of state says 'overwhelming majority' of ballots will be counted by Friday (WaPo, Nov. 5) Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said that there are still “several hundred thousand ballots remaining to be counted” as of the evening on Nov. 5.
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The President of the United States regarding his pending electoral loss: “The election apparatus in Georgia is run by Democrats.”

That's amazing! Let's get to know some of these Georgian state-wide elected Democrats.
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

I did a bad thing halfway through and texted my whole family "I hope you are watching the president speak right now. This goes beyond who voted for whom. If you value your constitutional right to vote you need to pay attention to what he's saying."

No one has responded but I'm sure I'll get a wall of text from my dad later showing that he's missed the entire fucking point but I'm done letting them sit unchallenged with their shitty choices.
posted by phunniemee at 4:15 PM on November 5, 2020 [53 favorites]

That man ain't happy. And I'm happy knowing that he's having a shittier fucking night than I'm having. If that makes me a shitty person, so be it. But that's how I feel.
posted by mikelieman at 7:07 PM on 11/5

I 💯 told my teenager this two hours ago. Except we weren’t happy; we were basically rocking on the couch trying not to lose it. And this was me comforting her.
posted by instamatic at 4:15 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

So how is Fox News reporting on this, from those of you brave souls watching it?
posted by clawsoon at 4:15 PM on November 5, 2020

Anderson Cooper just described Trump in the presser as "an obese turtle on his back flailing in the hot sun."

Turns out I’d fail the Voight-Kampff test after all.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:15 PM on November 5, 2020 [92 favorites]

TV news networks including ABC, CBS and MSNBC stopped broadcasting the president’s remarks – which amounted to a series of un-democratic lies.

As MSNBC cut away from the White House, after the president falsely declared victory, anchor Brian Williams commented, “Here we are again in the unusual position of not only interrupting the president of the United States but correcting the president of the United States.”

Took long enough for everyone to understand the correct response here but I'm a bit relieved we are increasingly on the same page. McConnell's statement eased some of my tensions yesterday, too, although I think we should all get into the habit of reminding each other that every Republican is stained with this now.
posted by Lonnrot at 4:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

much as I generally hate it when Metafilter piles onto somebody/anybody ...
posted by philip-random at 4:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

They're just questions, leo.
posted by flabdablet at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

I am so fucking proud to be a Philadelphian right now.
posted by Tomorrowful at 4:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

The funny and sad thing about this is that America really does have its own genuine crackpot authoritarian running a coup at last, just the kind it installed around the world

This is the thing I keep coming back to. Americans are kept so clueless about their own horrifying history that they get sincerely and genuinely upset when the reaping inevitably follows the sowing, except this time it's in their own country.
posted by Ouverture at 4:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Apparently most of the major networks cut away from Trump's presser part-way through. I was watching on C-SPAN so I got the whole thing, but interesting that even the networks finally decided it was too much.
posted by Kadin2048 at 4:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Huh. So there was a rock bottom.
posted by biogeo at 4:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

I'm not worried about a coup anymore. In that press conference he's absolutely radiating dismal loser energy. This is not someone about to lead the Proud Boys into battle.
posted by theodolite at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

I'm watching fox news and they're actually being quite reasonable. They're saying "if he's got allegations, then we'll need to wait and see what the proof he has to offer". They also noted that no other republicans seem to be supporting the claims.

I expected them to be a bit more supportive to Trump, to be honest.
posted by escher at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

our "surely this" moment.
posted by Stu-Pendous at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

I think it's because in a few hours nobody in the news will have to give a shit about what he says ever again.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Do you suppose they'll give him another shot of the good stuff, or is it cold turkey from now on?
posted by acb at 4:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

When he loses the knives come out.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Huh. So there was a rock bottom.

Why would you possibly believe that was it?
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Our surely this moment will be January 20th.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

I was watching on C-SPAN so I got the whole thing, but interesting that even the networks finally decided it was too much.

I was also on CSPAN, which aired the whole thing. Which is expected.

Sadly, it took everyone else up until now to decide that what Donald Trump says isn't newsworthy instead of... Well that kind of speculation gets us nowhere...

And let me just thank each and every one of you for providing this much-needed touchstone of rational discourse. And especially for reminding me that it's entirely possible for a Presidential candidate to fail the Voight-Kampff EMPATHY test and yet still get elected.
posted by mikelieman at 4:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I think it's because in a few hours nobody in the news will have to give a shit about what he says ever again.

Well, I'm going to be extremely interested in whether he pleads guilty or not guilty
posted by East Manitoba Regional Junior Kabaddi Champion '94 at 4:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [34 favorites]

The best thing for America’s future is for @realDonaldTrump to go to total war over this election to expose all of the fraud, cheating, dead/no longer in state voters, that has been going on for far too long.

Put up or (please baby please baby please baby baby baby please) shut up.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

I wonder if things like Santorum refusing to support Trump is essentially part of a stand-down type thing from the GOP to stop supporting trump.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

The GOP spent all day losing in court for not being able to prove their allegations of fraud. That's a hard hill to climb for a presumptive loser, even for Fox News and their pyrite goose.
posted by feloniousmonk at 4:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Yeah but how will the 70million people who voted for him, a sizeable number of which don't read metafilter, or anything except fox/oan/twitter/facebook take it when the dude who won election night (in their eyes) suddenly loses 2 days later.

And got on tv and declared the election stolen.
posted by Lord_Pall at 4:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

538

Nate Silver
Nov. 5, 7:13 pm

There are now about 19,000 votes left to count in Georgia, if I’m doing the math right, and Biden needs to win them by 3,600 votes, or 19 percent, in line with a margin of 60-40 or thereabouts.
posted by medusa at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

I wonder if things like Santorum refusing to support Trump is essentially part of a stand-down type thing from the GOP to stop supporting trump.

I mean it’s not like any of these guys ever liked him as a person. I’m sure everybody feels the same way about him that Lindsay Graham feels about Ted Cruz.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

And more 538

Dan Hopkins
Nov. 5, 7:18 pm

Here in Pennsylvania, Trump’s margin continues to narrow, with ballot counts updating in multiple counties, including a bunch from Philadelphia; his lead now stands at 64,237 votes. On its own, Philadelphia should still have something at or above 60,000 mail ballots left to count. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has 35,000 mail ballots it is legally not allowed to count until tomorrow. And the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Julian Routh estimated less than an hour ago that there were on the order of at least 255,000 mail ballots still outstanding statewide, although that number has dropped since. And there are provisional ballots still to count as well.
posted by medusa at 4:24 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Oh, not a rock bottom for Trump, clearly not. A rock bottom for the Republican party's support of Trump. It's a pretty pathetic rock bottom but I'll take anything that turns us away from civil war.
posted by biogeo at 4:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

He really, really can't comprehend a world in which he loses. He looks just like a little boy making excuses to his mommy, in his quiet little-boy I'm innocent voice. How do people think this guy is macho, or strong, or a leader? Look at him! Incomprehensibly pathetic. Good fucking riddance.

In short: who is this clown?
posted by swift at 4:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Yeah but how will the 70million people who voted for him, a sizeable number of which don't read metafilter, or anything except fox/oan/twitter/facebook take it when the dude who won election night (in their eyes) suddenly loses 2 days later.

So question... was there any moment after midnight on November 3rd when, had they stopped the counting immediately, Trump would have actually won?
posted by bondcliff at 4:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I wonder if things like Santorum refusing to support Trump is essentially part of a stand-down type thing from the GOP to stop supporting trump.

I kind of wonder if the GOP hasn't been counting on this moment. They get rid of the rabid dog in their midst, and at the same time they get to be the underdogs for the next time, rallying a red wave based on what their base sees as a "stolen" election.

That said, Biden hasn't won yet, and once again, I am made very very nervous by everybody here and on TV and on Twitter , etc, acting like he already has...
posted by invincible summer at 4:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

Look. Here it is. The perfect photo.
posted by Lonnrot at 4:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [69 favorites]

Watching Rick Santorum stand up for the integrity of elections and criticizing the president for lying, holy shit, what they hell happened to reality?! I mean, I just heard words come out of Santorum’s mouth, and I agreed with them. I feel weird.

Rats fleeing a sinking ship: They know Trump is toast (massive knock on wood), so they're positioning themselves for the political environment they believe may follow. Casting calls have been going out for moderate republicans since the 2018 midterms, and there will be an open senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2022 because the incumbent Pat Toomey announced his retirement about a month ago. I expect many Republicans to follow. After all, they mostly got everything they wanted under Trump. Him losing just opens up more opportunities for advancement within the party.
posted by eagles123 at 4:27 PM on November 5, 2020

Yeah, I had a conversation with my neighbor as to whether or not "if you say it, it actually happens" exists (he, a philosopher, says yes, I as the tie-dyed hippie say no....go figure), and I am all DON'T JINX IT DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP...... don't say it until we're really sure, folks.
posted by jenfullmoon at 4:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

So, that was Trump's concession speech. He'll give the same concession speech again tomorrow or whenever. And again, and again for the rest of his life.
posted by joeyh at 4:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

I'm sure that if loses he will be remembered fondly, in the same breath as such lovable losers as Adlai Stevenson. Surely everyone in his orbit was drawn to him by his sterling character and his kindness, and no-one will abandon him if he merely loses an election.
posted by clawsoon at 4:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

was there any moment after midnight on November 3rd when, had they stopped the counting immediately, Trump would have actually won?

No, of course not. But that hardly matters. Trump supporters went to bed on Tuesday thinking he'd won. The next day, he wasn't. Therefore, illegal.
posted by argybarg at 4:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

He really, really can't comprehend a world in which he loses.

The upcoming New York Post cover with “You’re Fired!” on the cover is going to be epic. I hope he sees it every day until the demons drag him to hell.
posted by leotrotsky at 4:28 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

The surprising thing is not that the rats are fleeing the sinking ship, it's that the ship is FINALLY FUCKING SINKING.
posted by medusa at 4:29 PM on November 5, 2020 [35 favorites]

I wonder how many in the GOP have been waiting for the moment when they can turn on the bully who gave them everything they’ve wanted? I mean, I know better than to wish for good things, but it’d be nice to see a sudden and complete abandonment of Trump that robs him of any chance to set himself up as a “shadow president,” where it’s April, and he’s trying to carry on rallies and just no one is showing up. Just a total removal of any support.

I mean, they’ll still be evil fucks who are destroying the country, but it would still give me a thrill to see all of the knives in trumps back.
posted by Ghidorah at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

bondcliff: No, I don't think so, but Trumpists are absolutely and completely convinced of the obvious bullshit he just shared with the world. They have been primed for this all year. That is still the really concerning thing to me.

That being said, I think the media response to Trump's... whatever that was, temper tantrum, has actually taken a lot of the wind from those sails. It still isn't smooth sailing - we are still headed directly for President-for-Life Tom Cotton a few years down the road - but we aren't likely to sail into a typhoon tomorrow and I will take that as progress.
posted by Lonnrot at 4:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
·
13m
Some of the commentary on here seems dismayed by Trump's statement as if it was a threat to democracy. Nonsense. It was a Shakespearean death scene from a broken man who has been run through by democracy. It was so absurd it will be treated with all the seriousness it deserves
posted by Ahmad Khani at 4:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

It's nice to see that, but still important to remember that Mitch is still some god-forsaken rat/ship hybrid.
posted by Marticus at 4:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

The Anderson Cooper clip must be seen to be fully appreciated.
posted by triggerfinger at 4:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [34 favorites]

Regarding the mail-in votes, my favourite take from Twitter was:

“Let me put this in a way Republicans can understand... a vote’s life begins the moment it is put in the envelope. It’s against god’s will to kill it before it can be counted”
posted by saucysault at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [82 favorites]

I'm with the 'don't jinx this' crowd. It feels like anything that could have gone wrong in 2020 has, and then some. I won't be comfortable until this get's called for Biden. I know there'll be lawsuits up and out of the wazoo, but I'm fairly confident the courts will want to support democracy.
posted by elwoodwiles at 4:32 PM on November 5, 2020 [24 favorites]

So Pennsylvania might really be The Keystone State?
posted by kinnakeet at 4:33 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Remember that the faster the Republicans can distance themselves from Trump, the faster they can blame all our existing ills on Biden.
posted by meowzilla at 4:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Pence has decided to join the conspiracy crew.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 4:35 PM on November 5, 2020

That said, Biden hasn't won yet, and once again, I am made very very nervous by everybody here and on TV and on Twitter , etc, acting like he already has...

I'm with the 'don't jinx this' crowd. It feels like anything that could have gone wrong in 2020 has, and then some. I won't be comfortable until this get's called for Biden.

I'm there too -- extrapolating is well and good but I'm not going to pop the champagne until I see a "270" (or more) next to Biden's name 🤞
posted by andrewesque at 4:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Besides, like, all of the facts, you can also tell that this is the de rigueur “Trump's Mirror” projection because he's not just alleging cheating—he's alleging completely incompetent cheating, in which a hermetically-sealed conspiracy which supposedly successfully delivered millions of “fake votes”, while leaving no evidence beyond the “fake votes” themselves, also fucked up catastrophically by getting hundreds of thousands of them in late via the methods designed for voting early.

Obligatory Umberto Eco “The 14 Habits of Highly Effective Fascists” quote: through a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.
posted by XMLicious at 4:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

Turtle On His Back Flailing In The Hot Sun is my new band name.
posted by Ruki at 4:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Flailing turtles all the way down
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Mr. President, Deutsche Bank is on Line One.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

It's nice to see that, but still important to remember that Mitch is still some god-forsaken rat/ship hybrid.

On the day when he is finally defeated by time and entropy, McConnell will collapse mid-sentence and everyone will suddenly see the rat king that was there all along. Never a man, just a tangle of dead vermin in a suit. "Boy, that's creepy," someone will say. A week later everyone will have forgotten all about McConnell.
posted by Lonnrot at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

Pence has decided to join the conspiracy crew.

Pence decided to join four and a half years ago
posted by Ahmad Khani at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

It looks to me (from google/AP results) like NC might even still be up for grabs... How's it looking down there?
posted by sexyrobot at 4:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Anderson Cooper's "obese turtle" poetry approaches Dan Rather levels of imagery. Bravo.
posted by EatTheWeek at 4:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

the guy running the map on CNN just went through all of the updates to the counts that came in during Trump's tantrum, how things have unfolded since Tuesday, and repeatedly mentioned that Trump was lying about the process.
posted by nubs at 4:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I'm like an hour late on this, but did we get a list of things Trump accused Democrats of doing in that speech? 'Cause that should be the rough draft of the table of contents of a report on the joint investigation of Trump by the House and the next AG.
posted by Horkus at 4:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Turtles have a round shape, but I don’t think they can really get obese because they are constrained by their shell.
posted by snofoam at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Do we need to use “obese” there? (I know we’re just quoting, but) isn’t “turtle on its back” enough? No need to repeat the rest, thanks.
posted by anshuman at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [21 favorites]

When they make a documentary about this period in twenty years time, this presser is going to be one of the key scenes.
posted by carter at 4:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

It'll definitely make the trailer
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Trump’s press briefing was really low energy.
posted by snofoam at 4:44 PM on November 5, 2020

sexyrobot: It looks to me (from google/AP results) like NC might even still be up for grabs... How's it looking down there?

The last release in NC was seven hours ago. At that time Trump was ahead by about 77K votes with about 191K votes left to count, so Biden would have to win more than 70% of the votes remaining to count to carry NC. Trump will probably win NC.
posted by RichardP at 4:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

—————————
—————————

MAY I suggest the gentle persons that were working on a third Election Thread go ahead and post it?

This thread is already over 1600 comments and bogging down. There’s going to be a lot of comments coming in over the next few hours.

Thanks!

—————————
—————————
posted by darkstar at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

“ The tortoise lays on its back, its belly baking in the hot sun, beating its legs trying to turn itself over, but it can't. Not without your help. But you're not helping. Why is that?”

Because the turtle is a fucking fascist, evidently.
posted by nat at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2020 [32 favorites]

Shortly before his 2016 election, Trump said: "In this journey, I will never lie to you. I will never tell you something I do not believe."

Now, nearing the end of his presidency (and facing the biggest psychological failure of his life), Trump has again told us exactly what he believes. His own lies are the only truth he can accept: everything else he hears to the contrary is fake.

We have to take him at his word, treat him like the compulsive liar he is, and remove him from office. Keep on counting...
posted by cenoxo at 4:45 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

But RichardP, NC accepts late mail-in ballots, yes? How many more could those bring?
posted by nat at 4:46 PM on November 5, 2020

I think in retrospect the idea that Trump would put up a fight when losing the election is pretty ungrounded. He will lie until the cows come home, but I don’t think he’s really put up a fight on anything in the past four years. All talk.
posted by snofoam at 4:51 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Want to help cure votes? In addition to the Vote Save America effort linked above, there are these opportunities:

North Carolina (virtual)—https://www.mobilize.us/nc2020victory/event/314753/
The ballot curing deadline in North Carolina is 5 PM on 11/12.

Ohio (virtual)—https://events.democrats.org/event/354634/
The ballot curing deadline in Nevada is 11/10.

Nevada (virtual)—https://www.mobilize.us/nvdems/event/354868/
The ballot curing deadline in Nevada is 11/10.

Iowa (virtual)—https://tinyurl.com/y5f773md

Arizona (virtual)—https://www.mobilize.us/azvoterprotection/event/341588/
The ballot curing deadline in Arizona is 11/10.
posted by kristi at 4:52 PM on November 5, 2020 [14 favorites]

Hi all –

I'm delurking to say, can we fucking knock it off with the "obese" thing? He's a fascist. You have plenty of legitimate material to work with before resorting to fat-shaming and look-shaming. Some of the people reading your comments are obese, and they probably don't appreciate it.

Lurk re-enabled. Seriously, though.
posted by escape from the potato planet at 4:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [83 favorites]

I think in retrospect the idea that Trump would put up a fight when losing the election is pretty ungrounded. He will lie until the cows come home, but I don’t think he’s really put up a fight on anything in the past four years. All talk.

I do picture him fighting like a flailing turtle on its back. Even when he was younger and stronger.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 4:53 PM on November 5, 2020

Yeah NC has a really long period of accepting ballots. A decent number of those will be from overseas servicemen but who knows what the rest of the composition could be. I wouldn't expect major movement in NC but there being some sort of minor miracle where Biden and Cunningham catch up would be nice.
posted by vuron at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

If you want to win in 2024 as a Republican. I would probably start saying something. Just saying.

The Grifter’s Grifter-Under-Investigation (Former) Campaign Chair
posted by glaucon at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

The Maricopa Elections office learned a lesson from last night. Today, new temporary fencing is keeping the protesters well back from the building entrance.
posted by darkstar at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

All of those links, kristi, are full :<
posted by lalochezia at 4:54 PM on November 5, 2020

Pence has decided to join the conspiracy crew.

Pence decided to join four and a half years ago

Mike Pence
@Mike_Pence: I Stand With President @realDonaldTrump. We must count every LEGAL vote.

Dunno you guys, but the emphasis on LEGAL tells me he's playing weasel. It's almost like the second part of the tweet contradicts the first, don't you think? Except Trump won't see it that way--and he can't argue against it without admitting that he's calling for legal votes to be ignored. For decent folk, he has plausible deniability, he supported Trump as long as what he was asking for was legal.

So win-win for Pence. Slippery guy.
posted by ipsative at 4:56 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

I assume every single swing-state voter with a rejected but curable ballot is getting about 9000 calls and texts a second right now
posted by theodolite at 4:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

If Trump lives and wants the 2024 GOP nomination, it's his. (cf: Silvio Berlusconi)
posted by argybarg at 4:57 PM on November 5, 2020

nat: NC accepts late mail-in ballots, yes? How many more could those bring

Yes, NC does accept absentee ballots after the election (I think up until Nov. 12). However, the forthcoming NC absentee ballots are unlikely to lean much more towards Biden than the recently counted absentee ballots, which haven't been leaning enough towards Biden to close Trump's lead fast enough. Biden could still win NC, but a Trump victory in NC is more likely.
posted by RichardP at 4:58 PM on November 5, 2020

Teegeeack, I think his hair is designed to cause video compression blur.

It encodes a copyright statement.

NDA.

I think we should have a definitive enough vote count by Friday night. <3
posted by tilde at 4:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

described Trump in the presser as "an obese turtle on his back flailing in the hot sun."

An apt time for a reminder that Donald Trump a 'revolting slug' unfit for public office, New South Wales Parliament decides
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:58 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

If Trump lives and wants the 2024 GOP nomination, it's his.

The cockroaches will be on to their next skin-suit by then
posted by Ahmad Khani at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2020

Or put differently, Pence's tweet is signalling opposite things simultaneously. Republicans see the contradiction and don't care, because they've all been playing the game. Trump sees it and maybe it confuses him, so he chooses to believe Pence just stands behind him, period.
posted by ipsative at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Love to see continual fat-shaming here after more than a few mod notes against it.

It doesn’t make Trump look bad. It makes you look bad. Even if you pretend that gleefully joking about it is okay because it's a quote and you didn’t say it.

The way a person looks is not an actual legitimate way to decide whether they are a good person. Knock it off.
posted by the thorn bushes have roses at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [50 favorites]

"The motion regarding Mr Trump was passed without dissent, after Upper House president Don Harwin looked into whether the term "revolting slug" amounted to unparliamentary language."
posted by UbuRoivas at 4:59 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

Dang! The CNN livestream, which is a bit delayed from the broadcast, just had Wolf Blitzer and John King spend 2-3 minutes on a blistering condemnation of Trump’s lying and trying to “undermine the most sacred institution of our democracy”, and all but said he was enabling our America’s foreign adversaries in destabilizing the country.

I don’t think I’ve ever heard either of them use that kind of highly charged, DGAF, truth-telling about Trump before.
posted by darkstar at 5:00 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

mrgoat: "Claims to have won Georgia by a lot, but it got "whittled down""

On Fox the chryon on this part read "willed down", too funny.

Tr(i)ump(h) of the Willed Down
posted by chavenet at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Trump’s press briefing was really low energy.

SAD!
posted by kirkaracha at 5:01 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Let's try to make what might very well be a happy moment here happy for everyone.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

The (very early) line from the Trump supporters I see on Facebook is ... let's see ... "AZ just wants them to be accurate and not fraudulent. It’s not just AZ. So there is def issues!! I will absolutely respect the count if there’s no fraud." and variations thereof. By tomorrow, of course, it will be established beyond all doubt that "the votes" are all fraudulent, that reality is a projection, etc. But for now the stabs at support sound kind of half-hearted.
posted by argybarg at 5:06 PM on November 5, 2020

I'm fat and I thought "obese turtle" was hilarious. Partially because Anderson Cooper wouldn't normally use language like that and he's caught in a surreal moment. But MeFi doesn't need to double down on it because the word certainly offends some of us.
posted by mmoncur at 5:06 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

This emotional roller coaster is killing me. I'm holding in a really big happy cry right now. 6'4" 245 lbs of sobbing man is on deck and ready to go.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [15 favorites]

He is of a weight that is generally considered unhealthy, from a medical perspective. Many people are, and it does not reflect on their character. There is more than enough of substance to criticize trump on without shaming people over their weight. We can do better than that.

His hair fucking sucks though
posted by mrgoat at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [18 favorites]

"Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
posted by SansPoint at 5:59 PM on November 5 [11 favorites +] [!]

Flagged! Only Airplane! movie references here.

(Blade Runner gets a slight pass, as y'all document what Anderson Cooper said.)
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 5:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

I would pay good money to have Barack Obama come out to congratulate Joe with "This is a big fucking deal."
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 5:12 PM on November 5, 2020 [19 favorites]

From someone who is overcoming an eating disorder stop making fun of Trump's weight There are so many other ways to make fun of him that don't hurt other people!
posted by daybeforetheday at 5:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [27 favorites]

In the After Times, I really want voting procedures to be standardized on a national level. Trump talked about votes from dead people, and that's actually true in a way. If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right. It's not something I really thought about pre-pandemic, but that's something that should be either allowed everywhere or not.

Generally speaking, I don't understand how "states' rights" is compatible with the conservative ideal of smaller government. Having so many disparate systems, beyond just election procedures, creates MORE government, just spread out and patchwork. I'd personally prefer a smaller, more efficient national government. (I'm assuming the answer is racism and guns, with a dash of reproductive coercion.)
posted by Ruki at 5:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

OK, but then dead politicians can't win either.
posted by aramaic at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

If any of my earlier turtle jokes accidentally perpetuated the fat-shaming, I sincerely apologize. I had deliberately avoided the word obese because I didn't want to use that part of Cooper's quote and only wanted to reference the image of a turtle flailing on its back. In retrospect, I shouldn't have made those references because I think I still inadvertently added to the fat-shaming. I'm sorry.
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

Hi, I'd like to apologize for my part in the turtle comment derail, in the hopes such an apology will also help to bring it to an end. I understand such a word can be hurtful, as I have had that very word directed at me in a hurtful way in the past, so I doubly regret choosing that portion of the quote to highlight. Thank you for holding us accountable.
posted by EatTheWeek at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

My own transcription of Jake Tapper, apparently just after CNN cut away from Trump's press conference (?) (Original at Twitter)

What a sad night, for the United States of America to hear their president say that, to falsely accuse people of trying to steal the election, to, to, to try to attack democracy that way with this feast of falsehoods. Lie after lie after lie about the election being stolen – no evidence for what he's saying, just smears about the integrity of vote-counting in state after state – when he wins a state, it's legitimate; when he loses, it's because the vote is being stolen from me, from him.

It's not true; it's ugly; it's frankly pathetic. The president for example, he, he assailed vote by mail: why, he asked, why are the vote by mail ballots so overwhelmingly in favor of Joe Biden? We all know the answer. It's because the president told his supporters not to vote by mail, so Democrats did it overwhelmingly, and his supporters turned out in droves on Election Day.

Look, President Trump has always been transparent about the smears, and lies, and strategies, the falsehoods: we knew he was gonna do this, we knew he was going to claim votes by mail were not real, but he's wrong, it's a lie, he's lying about the election, he's smearing the American people, he's smearing people who are working at polls, and it's a disgrace. We, we knew, we knew that the president was not going to lose graciously, uh, if he, if he lost. Uh, but, but frankly, watching him flail like this, is just, it's just pathetic.

posted by Spathe Cadet at 5:16 PM on November 5, 2020 [25 favorites]

John King is seriously putting the boots to Trump with straight facts, for at least the past 15 minutes. It's kind of refreshing to see media plainly calling him out.
posted by patternocker at 5:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

Seems to me that if you were alive at the time of legally marking your ballot, your vote should count. What would be the argument for doing otherwise?
posted by Crane Shot at 5:18 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

OK, but then dead politicians can't win either.

I looked it up — North Dakota doesn’t throw out the votes.
posted by tilde at 5:18 PM on November 5, 2020

Georgia will be down to around 15k votes now, surely the call must be within a couple of hours, max?
posted by freya_lamb at 5:19 PM on November 5, 2020

You better start Nev-ADDING up those votes then!
posted by sideshow at 5:19 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

As I said on November 3...

I remember 2016. Pennsylvania voter, here. (snipped for brevity, many absentee & mail-in ballots outstanding)

Please don't give up on PA yet.

I stand by this statement.
posted by which_chick at 5:20 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

What about candidates who are dead inside?
posted by biogeo at 5:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Per John King:

GA has Biden down by about 3400 votes.

But GA has a few buckets of votes to deal with, still. There are 15k votes remaining to be counted that are mail-in ballots, expected to skew heavily

There’s still a pot of thousands of overseas ballots that haven’t been dealt with. Not sure who benefits from those.

And another pot of thousands of day-of provisionals that haven’t been dealt with. Those May skew for Trump? Or not?

So we won’t know even after these 15k ballots in the first pot are counted. Going to be very close, but Biden is very likely to catch up.
posted by darkstar at 5:22 PM on November 5, 2020

The Nevada meme storm is... amusing. But with all eyes on us, and a lot of right wing loonies living here, I'd prefer the count to be slow and cautious.
posted by JustAnotherPerson at 5:22 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

What about candidates who are dead inside?

Get em outta there! Is my opinion.
posted by glaucon at 5:23 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Seems to me that if you were alive at the time of legally marking your ballot, your vote should count. What would be the argument for doing otherwise?

Until quite recently, the assumption was that basically everyone had to vote on election day, except for absentee ballots that were available only for a select few due to special circumstances. So if the general public couldn't cast their vote and then die before election day, it made a certain amount of sense not to provide that special privilege just to a select few absentees.

But now that we're moving away from that understanding of voting as a thing that happens only on election day, I agree that the rationale is looking pretty shaky.
posted by Not A Thing at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Nonsense. It was a Shakespearean death scene from a broken man who has been run through by democracy

Trump's lack of enthusiasm felt like cold, uncaring nihilism. Strong "look what you're making me do" vibes. His emptiness unnerves me. I'm reminded of the snake poem he used to read. He's very dangerous.
posted by dmh at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [9 favorites]

What about candidates who are dead inside?

They have unfair advantages in politics, obviously, but I don't think we should make it a requirement to hold office.
posted by Spathe Cadet at 5:25 PM on November 5, 2020 [7 favorites]

I have counted
the votes
that were in
the ballot boxes

and which
you were definitely
trying
to discredit

Forgive me
they were legitimate
so many
and so blue.
posted by lydhre at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [95 favorites]

Now I'm imagining a bunch of actual pots with votes in them. A stew pot here, a stock pot there...
posted by clawsoon at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

What about candidates who are dead inside?

Get 'em out, works for me. We'll have a government entirely filled with first and second term women.
posted by mrgoat at 5:26 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

What about candidates who are dead inside?

Please, please, let’s not call names. That’s Senator Feinstein you’re talking about!
posted by Ghidorah at 5:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

TFW when the margins aren't big enough
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

PA, per CNN:

8,000 more votes just posted. Biden took about 66%. This exceeds the threshold Biden needs to catch up and pass Trump, if it continues.
posted by darkstar at 5:27 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Pennsylvania is now down to a 60,000 vote difference.
posted by which_chick at 5:28 PM on November 5, 2020

Does any states counting end tonight? Can it be over now? Can we send the vote counters like, a shit-ton of double espressos? Can we hurry this along? Glarg. How late have they been staying to count the last 2 nights? Can we fire like ALL the writers at once the instant this season is over? Somebody check with HR please!
posted by sexyrobot at 5:29 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

Fuck I wish I didn’t know about the Snake Poem. Very disturbing, cult like.
posted by glaucon at 5:31 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

Vote counting definitely won't end tonight. Allegheny County, PA (where Pittsburgh is) has 35,000 ballots they're not even allowed to start counting until tomorrow.
posted by biogeo at 5:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

It's possible they'll be able to call PA before those ballots are counted, of course, depending on what happens with the ballots coming in from Philly, but the counting will continue.
posted by biogeo at 5:35 PM on November 5, 2020

Since FOX News is one of the few to have called AZ, whatever state they next call for Biden will put him over the top. Trump hearing his defeat first announced on FOX would be very on-brand for the 2020 Writer’s Room.
posted by mikepop at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [8 favorites]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

Ok but I would enjoy a thriller about this concept. Or a Johnny Doller short? It could be a sequel to one about a person making a promise involving "as long as my heart is beating" and then later getting an artificial heart.
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 5:36 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

All eyes on Nevada (pronounced correctly, in Australian, as Nerr-var-der)
posted by Fiasco da Gama at 5:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Well, it's Thursday night, which means there's probably an MST3k happening somewhere.
posted by valkane at 5:37 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Pennsylvania takes forever because...

1. 2.6 million absentee or mail-in ballots. This is huge, way more than usual.

2. Unlike many other states, Pennsylvania is NOT ALLOWED to do any sort of pre-processing before ELECTION DAY. We can't check the voter name, verify that the ballot is properly signed, do anything at all. The ballots sit in a pile and ARE NOT TOUCHED until the day of the election.

3. Ballot must be inspected for signature. Voter must be checked against poll records to ensure that voter is registered and has not voted elsewhere. Ballot outer envelope must be opened. Inner secrecy envelope must be removed. Secrecy envelope must be opened. (This sounds like 2 envelopes per ballot because it IS two envelopes per ballot. Yes it's stupid.) Ballot needs to be flattened out enough to go into the machine, which scans the ballot. (Ballots that are too folded do not scan well.)

Also, Trump's lead in PA is now down to 53,000.
posted by which_chick at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2020 [20 favorites]

You know, I'm glad the media and his party are finally calling him on his shit but ... why did it take five years? Where was the "Trump falsely claims" chyron when he lied about MS-13? Why did they amplify his "both sides" message after the Nazi invasion of Charlottesville?

If people had been willing to call him on his shit in 2015, and repeat "Trump lies" like an earworm, we would not be sitting here with more than a quarter million dead, about to witness the great failure of the American experiment. Because if you think that the Trumpeteers and Trumpettes are going to concede in a peaceful transition of power ... I wish you luck in your ongoing battle with reality.

It won't happen, of course, but each one of these enablers needs to be held accountable. If Biden is smart, his inauguration address will call back to Lincoln's "with malice toward none, with charity toward all," but really what I want to see is Judgement at Nuremberg.
posted by basalganglia at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2020 [58 favorites]

So, yeah. About what we all expected. Enjoy the liver damage.

Seriously, my tolerance is now so high I can't really get drunk.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:38 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

To be clear, I think the vote should count. I only object to the fact that it's a state by state decision. The pandemic has shown that voting can be made more accessible and it should stay that way.
posted by Ruki at 5:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

we will have someone who is clearly unstable and has absolutely nothing to lose in ostensibly the most powerful position in the world for two months.

That was always going to happen. We're just trying to decide if it's two months, or two months and four years.
posted by mrgoat at 5:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [13 favorites]

Seriously, my tolerance is now so high I can't really get drunk.

Seriously, my ^^sugar^^ tolerance is now so high I can't really get ~~drunk~~ diabetes.
posted by invincible summer at 5:41 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

A flaw in the GOP's "dead-voter logic:" Statistically, recently-deceased voters would more likely be older and older voters skew Republican ... So they should WANT the dead voter bloc to be counted.
posted by ZenMasterThis at 5:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

More of calling Trump a liar yes please

There Have Been No Widespread Problems Counting Votes, So Trump Is Making Up A Bunch Of Lies

With Joe Biden in the lead, the president laid out an imaginary system of voter fraud targeted specifically at him.
posted by supercrayon at 5:42 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

Anyone know what's going on with Georgia? The NYT scraper previously linked shows the remaining ballots fluctuating between 21,106 and 15,490 with no ballots counted, and the Biden deficit remaining at 3,486.
posted by Alterscape at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2020

Seriously, my tolerance is now so high I can't really get drunk.

If that suddenly changes, go to the doctor at once.
posted by thelonius at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

If people had been willing to call him on his shit in 2015, and repeat "Trump lies" like an earworm, we would not be sitting here with more than a quarter million dead, about to witness the great failure of the American experiment.

Of course we would, because that's what happened. Everyone who supports him knows he lies, they just don't care so long as it allows them to get other things they want. Do not fall into the trap of thinking that if the people supporting Trump only saw that he lies then they'd stop supporting him. They know he lies.
posted by axiom at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [10 favorites]

I had a sort of poetic notion a moment ago -

Philadelphia is the city that was the birthplace of our country, and right now it's looking like it's the voters in Philadelphia who may be the ones that put us over the line to save us from a full-on slide into fascism.

It's like Philadelphia is the "restore to factory settings" button on our democracy.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:43 PM on November 5, 2020 [53 favorites]

Just noting, as this week continues, a little bit about time I saw posted somewhere. Because this has been a long two days, let’s think about time.

From the start of covid to now, the equivalent time passing (March to now - 8 months) in previous events means:
1. The bank failures hadn’t yet happened in the Great Depression
2. The US still wasn’t in Iraq after 9/11
3. The US hadn’t been hit in Pearl Harbor from the start of WW2

We are in the beginning of a very long something.
posted by glaucon at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [11 favorites]

Is there an update on when we can expect the next round of numbers from AZ, GA, and PA to be reported?
posted by NotTheRedBaron at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2020

Per NYT live updates:

Stephanie Saul, in New York 3m ago

In Georgia, where Trump’s lead over Biden has shrunk to 3,486, only 18,936 ballots remain uncounted, according to Jordan Fuchs, the deputy secretary of state.
posted by medusa at 5:44 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

>>> NEW ELECTION THREAD.

>>> NEW ELECTION THREAD.

>>> NEW ELECTION THREAD.

(Apologies for stepping on anyone’s toes who might have been prepping it.)
posted by darkstar at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

So, there are still Fuchs left.
posted by Marticus at 5:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

NEW THREAD! NEW THREAD! NEW THREAD!
posted by medusa at 5:48 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

I am also really struggling with my own ethics here, because in the last week, I've had more folks show up to my office with giant Trump buttons and hats and masks (at least they are wearing masks, I guess? can't get in the door without it. we have hired a bouncer)

And I'm sitting here partly thinking, "Well, I have to be professional about this and take care of them because they need my help," and partly thinking, "How can I convince them to see someone else because whatever unconscious bias I have just because really, really conscious?"

axiom: the NYT, and a lot of other media outlets, refused to use the word "liar" for a long, long time. Something about how that implied intent, and they didn't want to be sued, or something. Of course he was lying, and of course the Republican leadership knew it and went along with it in their own madness for power (and why they are jumping ship now it looks like he's losing), but there's a whole lotta "nice white moderates" who absolutely got took.
posted by basalganglia at 5:53 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

INT. TOWER - NIGHT

Kramer is still droning on.

                        KRAMER (v.o.)
              (into mike)
         ...and they shall be for frontlets between
         thine eyes, Ted. Neither they man servant,
         nor they maid servant, nor thine ox, nor
         thine ass.

posted by RobotVoodooPower at 5:57 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

New thread!

New thread!

New thread!
posted by Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug at 6:03 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Many people are saying there's a new thread. People are saying that more and more. Someone came up to me crying and said "Sir, there's a new thread."
posted by Marticus at 6:05 PM on November 5, 2020 [42 favorites]

Vote counting definitely won't end tonight. Allegheny County, PA (where Pittsburgh is) has 35,000 ballots they're not even allowed to start counting until tomorrow.

You are the messenger. I blame you.
Go there at once.
Count all the votes.
Get 'er done.
Finish quickly.
Hurry. Run.
Thank you.

(Stilllll trying to figure out if legal weed tastes different from regular weed. Hmmm..)
posted by sexyrobot at 6:09 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

I don’t think I’ve ever heard either of them [Wolf Blitzer and John King] use that kind of highly charged, DGAF, truth-telling about Trump before

Because they're cowards but they know he's done. I have marginally less contempt for them than I do the tiny-but-growing wave of Republican senators saying they were actually against Trump all along.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:30 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

If you're gonna throw out the votes of people who die after casting their ballots, you should allow people turning 18 to register up through election day.
posted by neuron at 6:47 PM on November 5, 2020 [5 favorites]

I thought about trying to push for a national election law, and realized it won't work. We don't vote on national candidates. We vote for electors based on state law - national law establishes how many there are, but nothing about how they're selected.

As far as I know, a state could decide that the governor personally appoints all of them, without any election at all.

I don't care how states are different in how they treat edge cases like "died after casting a legit vote." I mind that states can disenfranchise people for different reasons, and that the nonvoting population is still counted for congressional purposes.
posted by ErisLordFreedom at 7:14 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

Maybe not, but states get to make their own decisions about voting. In some, ex-cons can vote, in some they can’t. Everyone can vote by mail in some states, only the elderly and disabled can in others. In some, the ballot must be received by Election Day, in others it just needs to be postmarked by then. Early voting rules vary widely. Pretty much any one of those variables is going to be more consequential than whether the votes of the recently deceased count or not.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 7:15 PM on November 5, 2020

How does one forcefully evict someone from the whitehouse?

If you'all want us to come down there and burn place down again just let us know.

tiny-but-growing wave of Republican senators saying they were actually against Trump all along.

Against him but voted to not remove from office. Zero current GOP Senators can truthfully claim this.
posted by Mitheral at 7:21 PM on November 5, 2020 [6 favorites]

If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

It's been this way for many elections, it's not a problem. I think it's important to take a step back and look at the big picture: why is normal election practice such a problem this time? Weird, right?
posted by rhizome at 7:39 PM on November 5, 2020 [2 favorites]

New thread!

But I hit my favorite limit on this one hours ago!
posted by Gelatin at 7:40 PM on November 5, 2020 [1 favorite]

Against him but voted to not remove from office. Zero current GOP Senators can truthfully claim this.

Mitt Romney has entered the chat
posted by exogenous at 8:10 PM on November 5, 2020 [4 favorites]

Mitt Romney has entered the chat

Fuck, I got a little teary reading that. I disagree with him on 99 different fronts, but that’s moving.
posted by corb at 9:08 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

re: Republican reactions - this from last night's edition of the excellent Letters from an American blog by historian Heather Cox Richardson:
Republican leaders have been surprisingly quick to turn on the president. Last night, the Fox News Channel was the first to call the state of Arizona for Democratic candidate Joe Biden which, according to Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair, led Trump to call Rupert Murdoch, who owns the Fox News Channel, to demand a retraction. Murdoch, who has said for months that Trump would lose the election, refused.

Today, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told reporters that “claiming you’ve won the election is different from finishing the counting.” Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who caught the coronavirus when he helped to prepare Trump for the first presidential debate, told ABC News, “There’s just no basis to make that argument…. There just isn’t. All these votes have to be counted that are in now.” Among others, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, and Maryland Governor Larry Hogan, Republicans all, echoed McConnell and Christie.

It’s rare to get to watch a ship leaving a sinking rat.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:17 PM on November 5, 2020 [12 favorites]

It’s rare to get to watch a ship leaving a sinking rat.

I just hope people don't forget this ship still wants to kill all of us, just with more class and politeness.
posted by Ouverture at 9:34 PM on November 5, 2020 [3 favorites]

MSNBC is reporting GA flipped blue...[EDIT- sorry, posted in wrong thread!]
posted by rosiroo at 1:32 AM on November 6, 2020

To qualify rosiroo's comment, MSNBC reported that, due to a tranche of votes reported on a Georgia county government's web site that hadn't been fed into their system yet, “as of 4:32AM Biden takes the lead in Georgia” by a little less than a thousand votes, putting it “firmly in definitely-recount territory” (it wasn't already?) If Georgia were to really go to Biden, they say, that means he could do no worse than an electoral college tie.

But in the case of a tie, where the decision would go to the House, Trump would be expected to win. I didn't follow the reasoning why but Katy Tur said, “Go watch the episode of Veep that explains it all.”
posted by XMLicious at 1:44 AM on November 6, 2020

GA turns BLUE! One step closer to CAKE!
posted by HyperBlue at 2:05 AM on November 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

But in the case of a tie, where the decision would go to the House, Trump would be expected to win. I didn't follow the reasoning why but Katy Tur said, “Go watch the episode of Veep that explains it all.”

The basic answer is that in such a case the votes cast are not cast individually by the members, a majority of whom are Democrats, but are cast by state Congressional delegations, with each state receiving a single vote. Thus, the vote of my state's sole representative, Don Young (ugh), would receive exactly as much weight as all of California's representatives.
posted by Nerd of the North at 2:07 AM on November 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

GA - Biden - 2,449,371 vs Trump - 2,448,454
posted by monicafrench at 2:54 AM on November 6, 2020

Stacy Abrams just earned herself a Cabinet position.
posted by PenDevil at 3:39 AM on November 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

>>If you do early voting but die before Election Day, some states will count your vote and some states will throw it out. That's not right.

>>OK, but then dead politicians can't win either.

> I looked it up — North Dakota doesn’t throw out the votes.

Well folks, now's the time to start campaigning to get Ronald Regan on the Ballot in ND for 2024... Which Republican wouldn't want to vote for Ronald Regan again?
posted by Nanukthedog at 3:43 AM on November 6, 2020 [2 favorites]

Hey, don't jinx it—I was mentally blocking out the possibility as a defense mechanism until someone on NPR had to go and explicitly propose it, but after only one term Trump might run in 2024. In a Weekend at Bernie's scenario or otherwise. ←I'm joking about this last bit but seeing what's discussed above,

Here in the UK the BBC are reporting that Trump may make another presidential bid in 2024, which is confusing me a little, I didn't think someone in jail would be allowed to run for president?

We should not laugh at this because, as Countess Elena points out, it's thoroughly established that in the United States you can run for political office from prison. See here about Eugene Debs:

In the 1920 election, while in federal prison for violating the Espionage Act of 1917 with a speech opposing the draft, he received 913,664 votes, the most ever for a Socialist Party presidential candidate.

Let's not forget that Greg Gianforte was elected U.S. Senator from Montana after assaulting a reporter to avoid answering a question, and is now governor-elect of Montana after Tuesday's election, despite going to jail for it. It may have been excluded from the Wikipedia article but Gianforte dissembled by saying “I'll wait to hear what Trump thinks” to some question earlier on, Trump unexpectedly actually answered the question a couple of days before the election, and a quick-thinking Gianforte, facing a journalist in the process of asking a question under circumstances where he'd promised to answer, solved the problem by committing a violent crime.

Our fellow Americans unfortunately now like the idea of elected officials who have committed crimes—Trump is the “law and order” president who thinks Al Capone was mistreated by the justice system.
posted by XMLicious at 4:19 AM on November 6, 2020 [2 favorites]

Stacy Abrams just earned herself a Cabinet position.
That'll be up to Mitch.
posted by Harry Caul at 4:44 AM on November 6, 2020

Not if BLUE GEORGIA has anything to say about it.
posted by Rhaomi at 4:48 AM on November 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

new thread new thread new thread
posted by soundguy99 at 4:49 AM on November 6, 2020

Congrats, Biden ahead by 20k in PA.
posted by ersatz at 6:03 AM on November 6, 2020 [3 favorites]

Sometime late last night, on Twitter, I thought I saw some assertion that the Alaska senate race might be tightening? That there was some hope for Al Gross, the independent who is being supported by Democrats there, could pull it out? Or was I just dreaming that? This morning's tallies on the NYTimes don't look very hopeful.

Alaskan here; as I said a million comments above if he comes even close to winning I’ll eat my hat. We do not count absentee votes until a full goddamn week after the election for....Reasons?....which means we are still days way from counting the last FORTY FIVE PERCENT yes you read that right of the vote. But: he’s new to politics, people are irritated about the Outside money put into the campaign and our awful deep-red core of voters have never been convinced to shy away from even the saddest, lackluster R. I just don’t see any signs of any kind of blue surge here.

I’d give better odds to the challenger to our sole, gross Congressman* but I still wouldn’t give her more than 20% odds.

I would love to be wrong about both of these things, but I would be absolutely shocked if the absentee ballots are *that* blue. They’ll make a difference in some smaller races but we’ll still have a Republican House and Senate, + Trumpy governor who has absolutely ghosted us for the last 6 months as COVID rampages the state. Good times.

*I have never had a Congressman who is not Don Young and I am forty-one f*cking years old; if he loses (he won’t), I will dance naked in the city streets.
posted by charmedimsure at 4:59 PM on November 6, 2020 [1 favorite]

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