Othering Heights
April 8, 2021 11:00 AM Subscribe
Bringing more data and analysis to the question of "is it economics or race," University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, director of the Chicago Project on Security and Terrorism, analyzed the demographics and home county characteristics of the 377 Americans arrested or charged in the Capitol insurrection. He found that counties with the most significant declines in the non-Hispanic White population are the most likely to produce insurrectionists who now face charges. "Put another way, the people alleged by authorities to have taken the law into their hands on Jan. 6 typically hail from places where non-White populations are growing fastest."
Alan Feuer at the NY Times interviewed Pape, who added that the study would appear to connect Jan. 6 with the once-fringe right-wing theory called the Great Replacement (which says minorities and immigrants are seeking to take over the country), the 2017 far-right rally in Charlottesville, and similar actions. The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin further crystalizes: "So much GOP racism hiding in plain sight."
Alan Feuer at the NY Times interviewed Pape, who added that the study would appear to connect Jan. 6 with the once-fringe right-wing theory called the Great Replacement (which says minorities and immigrants are seeking to take over the country), the 2017 far-right rally in Charlottesville, and similar actions. The Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin further crystalizes: "So much GOP racism hiding in plain sight."
In another recent thread, someone pointed out this prescient comment from 2015: "Demographics have turned against the racialized right in the US so decisively that, short of genocide, nothing will suffice to keep them in power except some form of coup."
welp,
posted by theodolite at 11:37 AM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
welp,
posted by theodolite at 11:37 AM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
The framing, "is it economics or race?" really bothers me. Human experience does not divide neatly into categories like this. Economic conditions are experienced racially, and vice versa. There is never an either-or answer to these questions, which is why the concept "intersectionality" was created.
posted by demonic winged headgear at 11:43 AM on April 8, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by demonic winged headgear at 11:43 AM on April 8, 2021 [10 favorites]
Since the Tea Party reared its ugly head I have posited that this whole (waves hands) movement is the dying gasp and grasping of a group who sees they will shortly lose their remaining privilege, and the power that goes with it. Nice to see my hunch backed up by data.
posted by dbmcd at 12:03 PM on April 8, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by dbmcd at 12:03 PM on April 8, 2021 [4 favorites]
I've been told so many times by white dudes that the existence of non-white people threatens something they call "social cohesion," yet what I see mostly are non-white people trying to work and raise their families while a few white guys drive around in big trucks sporting machine guns, yelling at everyone, beating people up and storming the capitol.
And I think, "you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means..."
posted by klanawa at 12:28 PM on April 8, 2021 [33 favorites]
And I think, "you keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means..."
posted by klanawa at 12:28 PM on April 8, 2021 [33 favorites]
As has been pointed out by many other people, folks who can afford to take work off midweek and go stay in an expensive city for several days are unlikely to be "economically anxious." This is very very very obvious, if you haven't bought into some of the weirder definitions of "working class."
posted by praemunire at 12:30 PM on April 8, 2021 [19 favorites]
posted by praemunire at 12:30 PM on April 8, 2021 [19 favorites]
Home of the brave my ass.
It has come to my attention that we have wildly different definitions for "bravery" and "courage" than conservatives do. One of the main differences being how we look at compassion. They look at compassion as being weak, as exposing your soft underbelly to others, and in their eyes that shows how weak and pathetic you are. They see it as allowing yourself to be taken advantage of (which is projection, because they... take advantage of people.).
Yet I tend to look at it the other way, exposing your soft underbelly by giving compassion is literally because you are brave enough to expose yourself to risk, and courageous enough to show compassion despite the risk it exposes you to.
Giving compassion is one of the most courageous things you can do, and denying it is one of the most weak willed and selfish. It's why the insurrectionists deserve a fair trial in a fair justice system, just as much as anyone else does, because being discompassionate enough to deny them that is to be sinking to their level.
I hope one day more of those people see bravery in compassion, but I really don't know how to make that happen myself.
posted by deadaluspark at 12:42 PM on April 8, 2021 [34 favorites]
It has come to my attention that we have wildly different definitions for "bravery" and "courage" than conservatives do. One of the main differences being how we look at compassion. They look at compassion as being weak, as exposing your soft underbelly to others, and in their eyes that shows how weak and pathetic you are. They see it as allowing yourself to be taken advantage of (which is projection, because they... take advantage of people.).
Yet I tend to look at it the other way, exposing your soft underbelly by giving compassion is literally because you are brave enough to expose yourself to risk, and courageous enough to show compassion despite the risk it exposes you to.
Giving compassion is one of the most courageous things you can do, and denying it is one of the most weak willed and selfish. It's why the insurrectionists deserve a fair trial in a fair justice system, just as much as anyone else does, because being discompassionate enough to deny them that is to be sinking to their level.
I hope one day more of those people see bravery in compassion, but I really don't know how to make that happen myself.
posted by deadaluspark at 12:42 PM on April 8, 2021 [34 favorites]
Where's the actual paper? I'm not finding it.
The NYT article uses the phrase "initial conclusions," which makes it sound like this isn't something that's been published or peer reviewed yet?
It also uses the term "majority-minority" to mean "plurality."
That's what white nationalists are actually afraid of. They can scream about "being replaced" all they want, but what really terrifies them is being stuck in the same boat as (and with) everyone else.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 12:48 PM on April 8, 2021 [8 favorites]
The NYT article uses the phrase "initial conclusions," which makes it sound like this isn't something that's been published or peer reviewed yet?
It also uses the term "majority-minority" to mean "plurality."
That's what white nationalists are actually afraid of. They can scream about "being replaced" all they want, but what really terrifies them is being stuck in the same boat as (and with) everyone else.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 12:48 PM on April 8, 2021 [8 favorites]
Where's the actual paper? I'm not finding it.
No formal articles yet, though the research group Pape heads is sharing their findings here.
posted by ryanshepard at 12:55 PM on April 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
No formal articles yet, though the research group Pape heads is sharing their findings here.
posted by ryanshepard at 12:55 PM on April 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
The reality is that the majority of Americans are economically anxious, and for good reason.
There's also a small, loud minority of Americans who appear to be economically anxious for bad reasons.
The vast majority of people who experience economic anxiety are economically insecure, but insurrection drove home that there's a contingent of (primarily white) Americans who are wealthy, economically secure, and have access to private jets, but are terrified of and furious about an entirely hypothetical future in which they're less fabulously rich, and they're eager to lash out in defense of their exceptionalism.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 1:06 PM on April 8, 2021 [13 favorites]
There's also a small, loud minority of Americans who appear to be economically anxious for bad reasons.
The vast majority of people who experience economic anxiety are economically insecure, but insurrection drove home that there's a contingent of (primarily white) Americans who are wealthy, economically secure, and have access to private jets, but are terrified of and furious about an entirely hypothetical future in which they're less fabulously rich, and they're eager to lash out in defense of their exceptionalism.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 1:06 PM on April 8, 2021 [13 favorites]
There are slides here.
Can a statistician help me out with slide 17?
It shows coefficients from "Regression Results (Negative Binomial)". The coefficient on "Decline in White Population" is 1.24. The note says "For every 1% decline in the white population, the number of expected insurrectionists increased by 24%." Is that right? Because the coefficient on population is 1.32, and it doesn't seem reasonable that for every 1% increase in the population, the number of insurrectionists would increase by 32%; that implies that doubling the population (100% increase) would increase the number of people by a factor of 30 times. What am I (or the authors) missing?
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:53 PM on April 8, 2021
Can a statistician help me out with slide 17?
It shows coefficients from "Regression Results (Negative Binomial)". The coefficient on "Decline in White Population" is 1.24. The note says "For every 1% decline in the white population, the number of expected insurrectionists increased by 24%." Is that right? Because the coefficient on population is 1.32, and it doesn't seem reasonable that for every 1% increase in the population, the number of insurrectionists would increase by 32%; that implies that doubling the population (100% increase) would increase the number of people by a factor of 30 times. What am I (or the authors) missing?
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:53 PM on April 8, 2021
Eh, there's economic anxiety and then there's being flat broke and they're not the same thing.
FWIW there actually seems to be a noticeable, if not significant, negative correlation between income under $25k (roughly the poverty line for an American family of four) and supporting/attending the insurrection. As it turns out, cosplaying as salt-of-the-earth Real Americans™ is actually a really expensive hobby, although this probably doesn't come as a surprise to people familiar with the prices of all those guns, trucks, and "tactical" equipment.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 2:09 PM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
FWIW there actually seems to be a noticeable, if not significant, negative correlation between income under $25k (roughly the poverty line for an American family of four) and supporting/attending the insurrection. As it turns out, cosplaying as salt-of-the-earth Real Americans™ is actually a really expensive hobby, although this probably doesn't come as a surprise to people familiar with the prices of all those guns, trucks, and "tactical" equipment.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 2:09 PM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
[me talking out ass]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:20 PM on April 8, 2021
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:20 PM on April 8, 2021
Another useful resource: Capitol Hill Siege, a project of The Program on Extremism (at GWU). It was last updated March 18, and includes both overviews of and charging documents for the accused.
From that link: "Alleged participants came from over 180 counties throughout the United States, with the highest total cases by county from Los Angeles County (CA), Franklin County (OH), and Bucks County (PA)." Bucks County as a whole is not notably economically distressed. Residents of a certain age have, however, spent decades watching farms turn into developments that have filled with folks from NY, NJ, and Philadelphia. The sense of...internal displacement? being invaded?...isn't as strong as it is in Central Pa., but it's lurking under the surface as longtime residents find themselves in heavier traffic, among people and practices from Away.
posted by MonkeyToes at 2:26 PM on April 8, 2021
From that link: "Alleged participants came from over 180 counties throughout the United States, with the highest total cases by county from Los Angeles County (CA), Franklin County (OH), and Bucks County (PA)." Bucks County as a whole is not notably economically distressed. Residents of a certain age have, however, spent decades watching farms turn into developments that have filled with folks from NY, NJ, and Philadelphia. The sense of...internal displacement? being invaded?...isn't as strong as it is in Central Pa., but it's lurking under the surface as longtime residents find themselves in heavier traffic, among people and practices from Away.
posted by MonkeyToes at 2:26 PM on April 8, 2021
Talking less out my own ass:
*Those don't appear to be coefficients. Coefficients in count models don't have that kind of direct interpretation. I expect they're incident rate ratios but they don't say.
*The effect of decrease-in-anglo-population is expressed as "a one percent increase" probably because they're measuring that decrease as percentage points. They almost certainly mean a one percentage point decrease, not a one percent decrease.
*Obvs, population isn't expressed as a percent, but they don't say whether they're using population or ln(pop). Logged would make more sense. and I double don't remember the interpretation of logged IVs in count models.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:35 PM on April 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
*Those don't appear to be coefficients. Coefficients in count models don't have that kind of direct interpretation. I expect they're incident rate ratios but they don't say.
*The effect of decrease-in-anglo-population is expressed as "a one percent increase" probably because they're measuring that decrease as percentage points. They almost certainly mean a one percentage point decrease, not a one percent decrease.
*Obvs, population isn't expressed as a percent, but they don't say whether they're using population or ln(pop). Logged would make more sense. and I double don't remember the interpretation of logged IVs in count models.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:35 PM on April 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
"Economic anxiety" reads like just another dogwhistle. It's racial anxiety, straight up or with a chaser of privilege. But god forbid we accuse the white supremacists of racism!
posted by basalganglia at 3:28 PM on April 8, 2021 [13 favorites]
posted by basalganglia at 3:28 PM on April 8, 2021 [13 favorites]
I used to be one of those who raised the notion of intersectionality of race-based & economic fears. But this latest study and others, as well as ample anecdata (*cough* - folks flying to the insurrection in their private jets) I think make a persuasive case that personal economics aren't anywhere nearly as meaningful a factor as racial/social status anxiety and general fear of change.
But this still leaves us with the question: what do we do about it? When looking at social impulses and movements that are this widespread, better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response, nor does one-on-one, 'persuade a Proud Boy to recant' personal activism. We rightly fulminate, but I still want to hear ideas for what we can do to change the way these angry whites see the world as it changes around them.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:20 PM on April 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
But this still leaves us with the question: what do we do about it? When looking at social impulses and movements that are this widespread, better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response, nor does one-on-one, 'persuade a Proud Boy to recant' personal activism. We rightly fulminate, but I still want to hear ideas for what we can do to change the way these angry whites see the world as it changes around them.
posted by PhineasGage at 4:20 PM on April 8, 2021 [3 favorites]
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
change the way these angry whites see the world
Can't help but agree Phineas.
Sorry for the repetition, I was just reading the Laurie Anderson post.
posted by evilDoug at 4:31 PM on April 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
better policing doesn't seem to be an adequate response
persuade a Proud Boy to recant
change the way these angry whites see the world
Can't help but agree Phineas.
Sorry for the repetition, I was just reading the Laurie Anderson post.
posted by evilDoug at 4:31 PM on April 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
demonic winged headgear: 'There is never an either-or answer to these questions, which is why the concept "intersectionality" was created.'
I take your point, but that doesn't really capture why the word intersectionality was created.
posted by johnabbe at 6:16 PM on April 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
I take your point, but that doesn't really capture why the word intersectionality was created.
posted by johnabbe at 6:16 PM on April 8, 2021 [1 favorite]
Previously on Metafilter: “Why are White men stockpiling guns?”
For some, that path to heroism led to a racist coup attempt.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 6:38 PM on April 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
These are men who are anxious about their ability to protect their families, insecure about their place in the job market, and beset by racial fears… In fact, stockpiling guns seems to be a symptom of a much deeper crisis in meaning and purpose in their lives. Taken together, these studies describe a population that is struggling to find a new story—one in which they are once again the heroes.Emphasis mine.
For some, that path to heroism led to a racist coup attempt.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 6:38 PM on April 8, 2021 [2 favorites]
The reality is that the majority of Americans are economically anxious, and for good reason.
If you're fucking off work in the middle of the week to fly to another state to wear expensive tacticool cosplay gear while sacking government buildings without fear of reprisal, any economic anxiety is self-inflicted.
posted by praemunire at 6:59 PM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
If you're fucking off work in the middle of the week to fly to another state to wear expensive tacticool cosplay gear while sacking government buildings without fear of reprisal, any economic anxiety is self-inflicted.
posted by praemunire at 6:59 PM on April 8, 2021 [17 favorites]
Tucker Carlson is now openly embracing the Great Replacement theory.
Jesus Fucking Christ what's next, Tucker? "14 simple words to live by"?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:03 PM on April 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
Jesus Fucking Christ what's next, Tucker? "14 simple words to live by"?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:03 PM on April 8, 2021 [9 favorites]
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Home of the brave my ass.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:25 AM on April 8, 2021 [35 favorites]