Poison in the Air
November 2, 2021 9:22 AM Subscribe
ProPublica undertook an analysis that has never been done before. Using advanced data processing software and a modeling tool developed by the Environmental Protection Agency, we mapped the spread of cancer-causing chemicals from thousands of sources of hazardous air pollution across the country between 2014 and 2018. The result is an unparalleled view of how toxic air blooms around industrial facilities and spreads into nearby neighborhoods.
From the urban sprawl of Houston to the riverways of Virginia, air pollution from industrial plants is elevating the cancer risk of an estimated quarter of a million Americans to a level the federal government considers unacceptable.
Some of these hot spots of toxic air are infamous. An 85-mile stretch of the Mississippi River in Louisiana that’s thronged with oil refineries and chemical plants has earned the nickname Cancer Alley. Many other such areas remain unknown, even to residents breathing in the contaminated air.
Until now.
This is great work with some results that are questionable because of the source data being gathered by the EPA. Consider the Alaskan Copper Works facility just south of downtown Seattle.
In a phone call on July 13, 2021, Rosen and Souza [facility operators] explained that EPA allows facilities to report their emissions on the TRI form in ranges when the emissions are below a certain threshold. The ranges provided are either 1-10 pounds or 11-499 pounds. They said whenever they report 1-10 pounds as the emissions total, the more precise number is roughly 5 pounds. And whenever they report emissions in the 11-499 pound range, the more precise number is at the lower end of that range, around 11 - 20 pounds. The app automatically takes the midpoint of each range, so it would interpret the 11-499 pound entry as 250 pounds. ProPublica gave the facility an opportunity to submit a revised R form with more precise numbers. We did not hear back. Our app reflects the data from this facility as 5 pounds when emissions are reported as 1-10 pounds, and as 250 pounds when reported as 11-499 pounds.
ProPublica’s app enshrines the fallacy of the average into this work and they appear to be in denial about how the EPA collects this data from facilities. Facilities report ranges, not specific numbers, and those ranges are not designed well. The analysis then relies upon these bad ranges and their averages to come to conclusions that can’t be disproven.
I appreciate the effort to highlight the EPA’s even worse analytical stance of ignoring overlapping risks and I wish more granular data were available.
posted by Revvy at 10:27 AM on November 2, 2021 [4 favorites]
In a phone call on July 13, 2021, Rosen and Souza [facility operators] explained that EPA allows facilities to report their emissions on the TRI form in ranges when the emissions are below a certain threshold. The ranges provided are either 1-10 pounds or 11-499 pounds. They said whenever they report 1-10 pounds as the emissions total, the more precise number is roughly 5 pounds. And whenever they report emissions in the 11-499 pound range, the more precise number is at the lower end of that range, around 11 - 20 pounds. The app automatically takes the midpoint of each range, so it would interpret the 11-499 pound entry as 250 pounds. ProPublica gave the facility an opportunity to submit a revised R form with more precise numbers. We did not hear back. Our app reflects the data from this facility as 5 pounds when emissions are reported as 1-10 pounds, and as 250 pounds when reported as 11-499 pounds.
ProPublica’s app enshrines the fallacy of the average into this work and they appear to be in denial about how the EPA collects this data from facilities. Facilities report ranges, not specific numbers, and those ranges are not designed well. The analysis then relies upon these bad ranges and their averages to come to conclusions that can’t be disproven.
I appreciate the effort to highlight the EPA’s even worse analytical stance of ignoring overlapping risks and I wish more granular data were available.
posted by Revvy at 10:27 AM on November 2, 2021 [4 favorites]
This is really impressive.
But I am worried, because while the article is pointing out EPA's failures to track these pollutants and enforce the terms of the Clean Air Act against polluters, the conservative legal community is pushing the Supreme Court to remove from the EPA the authority to regulate anything without explicit direction from Congress. There's a case before SCOTUS this term on this issue; although specific to greenhouse gases, it could well result in a finding that seriously limits federal agency authority to issue regulations.
The problem isn't really EPA: it's the Koch brothers, the Federalist Society, and the GOP. They don't care about downwind cancer rates, and really don't want to be held accountable for the external damage all these industries cause. They want to kill the administrative state.
posted by suelac at 10:33 AM on November 2, 2021 [21 favorites]
But I am worried, because while the article is pointing out EPA's failures to track these pollutants and enforce the terms of the Clean Air Act against polluters, the conservative legal community is pushing the Supreme Court to remove from the EPA the authority to regulate anything without explicit direction from Congress. There's a case before SCOTUS this term on this issue; although specific to greenhouse gases, it could well result in a finding that seriously limits federal agency authority to issue regulations.
The problem isn't really EPA: it's the Koch brothers, the Federalist Society, and the GOP. They don't care about downwind cancer rates, and really don't want to be held accountable for the external damage all these industries cause. They want to kill the administrative state.
posted by suelac at 10:33 AM on November 2, 2021 [21 favorites]
ProPublica’s app enshrines the fallacy of the average into this work and they appear to be in denial about how the EPA collects this data from facilities. Facilities report ranges, not specific numbers, and those ranges are not designed well. The analysis then relies upon these bad ranges and their averages to come to conclusions that can’t be disproven.
So if the emitters receive pushback or bad publicity because of this they may push the EPA from their end to be more granular in their reporting requirements. If the industry being regulated is telling them to collect better data then I'd think there'd be more chance of it happening than if it were members of the general public.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:54 AM on November 2, 2021 [2 favorites]
So if the emitters receive pushback or bad publicity because of this they may push the EPA from their end to be more granular in their reporting requirements. If the industry being regulated is telling them to collect better data then I'd think there'd be more chance of it happening than if it were members of the general public.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:54 AM on November 2, 2021 [2 favorites]
If the industry being regulated is telling them to collect better data
Changing the adversarial and captured nature of the relationship between regulators and polluters to something that is accurate and benefits society would be something worth talking about.
posted by Revvy at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2021 [2 favorites]
Changing the adversarial and captured nature of the relationship between regulators and polluters to something that is accurate and benefits society would be something worth talking about.
posted by Revvy at 12:26 PM on November 2, 2021 [2 favorites]
Does any level of government track cancer cases or deaths by "natural causes" by zipcode? Then you could overlay the two sets of maps and see what kind of relationship there is between the two. I'd assume the two would roughly match each other but you never know.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:51 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 12:51 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
There's a hot spot in my town about a mile and a half from where I live and I didn't even realize it. I am (supposedly) outside the elevated risk zone but there's something unnerving about it - nobody ever tells you, "Hey, jsyk, there's a plant putting nickel and cadmium into the air a mile and a half from your apartment."
posted by Jeanne at 1:09 PM on November 2, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by Jeanne at 1:09 PM on November 2, 2021 [8 favorites]
Water Gremlin is such a case here in Minnesota. One of our local news stations has keeping an eye on them since the story broke in early 2019. The state legislature did ban TCE last year, but they had been emitting it for at least 10 years at that point.
posted by soelo at 2:33 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by soelo at 2:33 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
How are we going to blame the the journalists for how companies are failing to report? This is the best information available. This is the information that the government is making all their decisions on, if we want to improve it, let's improve it.
This kind of analysis is a cumulative impact analysis that agencies are required to conduct by law, but EPA and other federal agencies somehow never get around to it.
It's not like the oil companies are falling over themselves to install monitors. They, and our legislators who take their money, are students of Agnotology.
There's also a large need to hire modelers to communicate to the public how and when air pollution affects them--since these risk profiles are based on long-term risk over time, but most air pollution often happens in short term plumes. That link is to a Air Modelling simulation conducted by researchers at the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Imperial College London, using data that companies are required to report, but which is generally hidden from the public.
We can petition the EPA, and petition congress, to force companies to conduct more fenceline monitoring, as there is for Benzene. There really isn't any other chemical that has to be monitored at the fenceline, I don't think.
The USA relies on self-reporting.
Except when there's a hurricane, then the companies can just declare Force Majure and stop reporting. Because no one can predict that there will be hurricanes, apparently.
posted by eustatic at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2021 [5 favorites]
This kind of analysis is a cumulative impact analysis that agencies are required to conduct by law, but EPA and other federal agencies somehow never get around to it.
It's not like the oil companies are falling over themselves to install monitors. They, and our legislators who take their money, are students of Agnotology.
There's also a large need to hire modelers to communicate to the public how and when air pollution affects them--since these risk profiles are based on long-term risk over time, but most air pollution often happens in short term plumes. That link is to a Air Modelling simulation conducted by researchers at the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Imperial College London, using data that companies are required to report, but which is generally hidden from the public.
We can petition the EPA, and petition congress, to force companies to conduct more fenceline monitoring, as there is for Benzene. There really isn't any other chemical that has to be monitored at the fenceline, I don't think.
The USA relies on self-reporting.
Except when there's a hurricane, then the companies can just declare Force Majure and stop reporting. Because no one can predict that there will be hurricanes, apparently.
posted by eustatic at 3:26 PM on November 2, 2021 [5 favorites]
Does any level of government track cancer cases or deaths by "natural causes" by zipcode?
Data.gov, and specifically this dataset is where I would start with that project if I had better data skills. It is at least tracked at the county level, if not by zip.
posted by Jawn at 3:30 PM on November 2, 2021 [2 favorites]
Data.gov, and specifically this dataset is where I would start with that project if I had better data skills. It is at least tracked at the county level, if not by zip.
posted by Jawn at 3:30 PM on November 2 [+] [!]
County governments can be racist, though--racism is acting within counties, so, if you want to track the relationship between risk and cancer incidence, you need at least tract-level data::
Toxic Air Pollution is Linked to Higher Cancer Rates among Impoverished Communities in Louisiana
Kimberly A. Terrell, Ph.D. and Gianna St. Julien
We investigated the relationship between toxic air pollution and cancer among Louisiana census
tracts using the most recent cancer incidence rates available from the Louisiana Tumor Registry (2008-2017).
County-level data seems sufficient for more common illnesses like COVID-19, tho
posted by eustatic at 3:48 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by Jawn at 3:30 PM on November 2 [+] [!]
County governments can be racist, though--racism is acting within counties, so, if you want to track the relationship between risk and cancer incidence, you need at least tract-level data::
Toxic Air Pollution is Linked to Higher Cancer Rates among Impoverished Communities in Louisiana
Kimberly A. Terrell, Ph.D. and Gianna St. Julien
We investigated the relationship between toxic air pollution and cancer among Louisiana census
tracts using the most recent cancer incidence rates available from the Louisiana Tumor Registry (2008-2017).
County-level data seems sufficient for more common illnesses like COVID-19, tho
posted by eustatic at 3:48 PM on November 2, 2021 [1 favorite]
How are we going to blame the the journalists for how companies are failing to report?
Who is blaming them for that?
posted by Revvy at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2021
Who is blaming them for that?
posted by Revvy at 10:23 AM on November 3, 2021
Does any level of government track cancer cases or deaths by "natural causes" by zipcode?
The standard death certificate that is filled out by your county morgue has a field for the current address, which includes zipcodes, which means at the very least, the CDC has this information.
posted by LizBoBiz at 6:02 AM on November 4, 2021
The standard death certificate that is filled out by your county morgue has a field for the current address, which includes zipcodes, which means at the very least, the CDC has this information.
posted by LizBoBiz at 6:02 AM on November 4, 2021
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