and did those feet in ancient time, queue upon England's pavements grey
December 13, 2021 9:59 AM Subscribe
As the PM faces criticism for breaking his own government's lockdown rules last year, the UK government has suggested that estimated COVID infections in the country may be running at 200k a day (official case figures are currently averaging out at around 50k per day), with over 50% of all London cases expected to be from the Omicron variant within the next 48 hours.
Though authorities in South Africa have maintained that Omicron is a mild illness for most people, the UK has nevertheless stepped up its booster vaccination programme (ahead of news that 2 doses of AZ/Pfizer may not provide as much antibody protection as first estimated against Omicron, making boosters more important than ever), leading to 4+ hour long queues in some places across the capital.
Though authorities in South Africa have maintained that Omicron is a mild illness for most people, the UK has nevertheless stepped up its booster vaccination programme (ahead of news that 2 doses of AZ/Pfizer may not provide as much antibody protection as first estimated against Omicron, making boosters more important than ever), leading to 4+ hour long queues in some places across the capital.
authorities in South Africa have maintained that Omicron is a mild illness for most people
I don't think Dr Coetzee represents the South African medical authorities. To the best of my knowledge she is a GP and chair of the South African Medical Association, which is a professional association (in effect a trade union). I don't think she has represented herself as offering anything but her own view, which is relevant but seems to be being accorded special weight in reporting (in particular in view of the fact that she is a primary care clinician, not an epidemiologist) for reasons that are unclear to me.
posted by howfar at 11:09 AM on December 13, 2021 [11 favorites]
I don't think Dr Coetzee represents the South African medical authorities. To the best of my knowledge she is a GP and chair of the South African Medical Association, which is a professional association (in effect a trade union). I don't think she has represented herself as offering anything but her own view, which is relevant but seems to be being accorded special weight in reporting (in particular in view of the fact that she is a primary care clinician, not an epidemiologist) for reasons that are unclear to me.
posted by howfar at 11:09 AM on December 13, 2021 [11 favorites]
Even if omicron infections are generally a milder than earlier strains, it's still a really bad idea to get infected: every strain so far has led to long-term post viral complications among on the order of 10% of cases, and there is no evidence that omicron is less likely to cause long covid. (Indeed, there won't be any evidence either way for weeks to months yet, because omicron is too new.)
Long term post-viral/chronic fatigue syndrome is horrible. Even if the death toll per infection from omicron is strikingly lower than from previous strains, it could leave a lot of wrecked lives in its wake.
posted by cstross at 11:13 AM on December 13, 2021 [45 favorites]
Long term post-viral/chronic fatigue syndrome is horrible. Even if the death toll per infection from omicron is strikingly lower than from previous strains, it could leave a lot of wrecked lives in its wake.
posted by cstross at 11:13 AM on December 13, 2021 [45 favorites]
Anecdotally, when I booked my first two jabs, I could get a time in any of a half dozen locations, any day of the week. Now, there are only two places doing it in my area, and they both only do two middle-of-the-week weekdays, from 9am to 6pm. They aren't making it easy this time.
posted by Dysk at 11:14 AM on December 13, 2021 [7 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 11:14 AM on December 13, 2021 [7 favorites]
The estimated effective reproduction rate of Omicron in the UK is so high that even if they could give all the very roughly 15-20 million people who are now eligible a booster before the end of the year, it looks likely that Omicron will infect a huge number of people in short order, absent very strong public health measures. The effectiveness even of a Pfizer booster against Omicron is probably only around 75%, according to UK data, and not until a week or more after the shot.
Based on the initial numbers we have now, even having the entire population boosted with Pfizer wouldn't be enough to get the effective reproduction rate down below 1! I'm sure the effective reproduction rate will change over the coming weeks as we get better data and the conditions on the ground shift, but that's the scale of the problem right now.
Is the government willing and able to bring is sufficiently strong measures before Christmas? I doubt it.
posted by ssg at 11:33 AM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
Based on the initial numbers we have now, even having the entire population boosted with Pfizer wouldn't be enough to get the effective reproduction rate down below 1! I'm sure the effective reproduction rate will change over the coming weeks as we get better data and the conditions on the ground shift, but that's the scale of the problem right now.
Is the government willing and able to bring is sufficiently strong measures before Christmas? I doubt it.
posted by ssg at 11:33 AM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
It's also not that clear where omicron is currently.
S-gene target failure numbers from Seattle show Omicron is likely over 10% there. It's just a matter of time.
posted by ssg at 11:36 AM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
S-gene target failure numbers from Seattle show Omicron is likely over 10% there. It's just a matter of time.
posted by ssg at 11:36 AM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
even if they could give all the very roughly 15-20 million people who are now eligible a booster before the end of the year
My mate just booked their booster vaccination. For 7 Jan 2022.
posted by howfar at 11:40 AM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
My mate just booked their booster vaccination. For 7 Jan 2022.
posted by howfar at 11:40 AM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
I volunteer in a vaccination hub in Southeast London, and we've just extended our clinic times to include days up to 23 December and starting again on 27 December. The powers that be actually thought we would be happy to run clinics on Christmas Eve and Boxing Day until they were told to heartily fuck off.
One of the other vaccination hubs in our borough is running seven days a week this week.
We are all exhausted, and most of our volunteers and staffers were hoping to have some time off over the holidays. We were going to finish on 20 Dec and come back in the New Year. But no, Christmas has been well and truly yanked away. Cheers, Boris. May every dump you take be a hedgehog.
Anyone in SE London who needs a first, second, third, or booster jab, feel free to MeMail me and I can pass on more information. The NHS is a big umbrella that covers all of us.
posted by Orkney Vole at 11:53 AM on December 13, 2021 [43 favorites]
One of the other vaccination hubs in our borough is running seven days a week this week.
We are all exhausted, and most of our volunteers and staffers were hoping to have some time off over the holidays. We were going to finish on 20 Dec and come back in the New Year. But no, Christmas has been well and truly yanked away. Cheers, Boris. May every dump you take be a hedgehog.
Anyone in SE London who needs a first, second, third, or booster jab, feel free to MeMail me and I can pass on more information. The NHS is a big umbrella that covers all of us.
posted by Orkney Vole at 11:53 AM on December 13, 2021 [43 favorites]
My mate just booked their booster vaccination. For 7 Jan 2022.
First one I could get that works with my 4-on/4-off and the aforementioned two days in the middle of the week was 26th Jan.
posted by Dysk at 11:53 AM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
First one I could get that works with my 4-on/4-off and the aforementioned two days in the middle of the week was 26th Jan.
posted by Dysk at 11:53 AM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
The well has been poisoned with respect to the terms "omicron" and "mild", but there's at least one AP article which quotes people other than Dr. Coetzee as seeing signs that symptoms are less severe. But they are careful to caveat that more data is needed, and even if true omicron might still overwhelm healthcare systems in sheer volume.
posted by credulous at 11:55 AM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by credulous at 11:55 AM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
S-gene target failure numbers from Seattle show Omicron is likely over 10% there.
Also, Omicron is 31% in Ontario, Canada.
posted by ssg at 11:58 AM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
Also, Omicron is 31% in Ontario, Canada.
posted by ssg at 11:58 AM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
Orkney Vole, thank you and your fellow volunteers. Hang in there.
posted by nickmark at 12:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
posted by nickmark at 12:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
Orkney Vole, I have my booster booked for Thursday and was thinking of buying a tub of chocolates or something to bring to the volunteers giving the jabs to say thank you. Would that be welcome, do you think? Are you allowed to snack on the job?
posted by fight or flight at 12:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 12:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [9 favorites]
Also, Omicron is 31% in Ontario, Canada.
Hey, this is where I live! Most of my immediate family is here too, and all are vaccinated save for my brother and sister-in-law, who have Very Strong Views on government control and sheeplike compliance and “the narrative” (by which I gather they mean reality, which has a notoriously liberal bias.)
My brother was asked by his mother what it would take for them to get vaccinated. Apparently unless they were getting on a plane, nothing will change their minds. They are happy to forgo ever seeing most of their family or visiting a bar or restaurant ever again. Note: my sister-in-law is a server in a restaurant and is at work every day.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:31 PM on December 13, 2021 [12 favorites]
Hey, this is where I live! Most of my immediate family is here too, and all are vaccinated save for my brother and sister-in-law, who have Very Strong Views on government control and sheeplike compliance and “the narrative” (by which I gather they mean reality, which has a notoriously liberal bias.)
My brother was asked by his mother what it would take for them to get vaccinated. Apparently unless they were getting on a plane, nothing will change their minds. They are happy to forgo ever seeing most of their family or visiting a bar or restaurant ever again. Note: my sister-in-law is a server in a restaurant and is at work every day.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 12:31 PM on December 13, 2021 [12 favorites]
fight or flight, that is a lovely idea! Volunteers really appreciate any kind of treat you can bring. I am at least 27% composed of Quality Street and Celebrations and tangerines on any given day at the centre. We always make sure everyone gets a minute or two during a shift to sneak round a corner and fill up on snacks.
posted by Orkney Vole at 1:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [23 favorites]
posted by Orkney Vole at 1:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [23 favorites]
The well has been poisoned with respect to the terms "omicron" and "mild", but there's at least one AP article which quotes people other than Dr. Coetzee as seeing signs that symptoms are less severe. But they are careful to caveat that more data is needed, and even if true omicron might still overwhelm healthcare systems in sheer volume.
The thing that needs to be shouted at top volume by all available outlets is that early reports are that Omicron may prove to be comparatively mild among the vaccinated.
Boosters may help blunt your odds of contracting it if you are previously vaccinated, or they may not. They may reduce the severity of the illness if you get it, or they may not. But someone who is unvaccinated and prefers to ride the hydroxychloroquine/ivermectin/zinc/vitamins/this stapler/this paddle-ball game/whatever pony rather than consent to Big Pharma's Untested And Dangerous Experimental 'Vaccines' [tm Fox News] is playing games with their long-term health and their life itself, whether it's Omicron that finds them or something else.
I mean, nothing is going to convince at least one Crazification Factor of the public to get jabbed no matter what, since the very fact that civilized folk back vaccines means that they must reject it as The Devil's Potion. But it at least bears repeating loud enough to be deafening, anyway.
posted by delfin at 1:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [12 favorites]
The thing that needs to be shouted at top volume by all available outlets is that early reports are that Omicron may prove to be comparatively mild among the vaccinated.
Boosters may help blunt your odds of contracting it if you are previously vaccinated, or they may not. They may reduce the severity of the illness if you get it, or they may not. But someone who is unvaccinated and prefers to ride the hydroxychloroquine/ivermectin/zinc/vitamins/this stapler/this paddle-ball game/whatever pony rather than consent to Big Pharma's Untested And Dangerous Experimental 'Vaccines' [tm Fox News] is playing games with their long-term health and their life itself, whether it's Omicron that finds them or something else.
I mean, nothing is going to convince at least one Crazification Factor of the public to get jabbed no matter what, since the very fact that civilized folk back vaccines means that they must reject it as The Devil's Potion. But it at least bears repeating loud enough to be deafening, anyway.
posted by delfin at 1:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [12 favorites]
I had my booster last week. After that I had a mild cough which lasted a week. That said, I would rather stand with my community and be immunized, than impose this problem on everyone else.
posted by SPrintF at 1:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by SPrintF at 1:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
"Is Omicron mild?" is less important than the fact that everyone with an active infection is basically a walking Petri dish that's providing a host for the virus to grow and possibly mutate. The more people are infected, the higher the chance of a mutation that could create a more dangerous strain.
One popular but as-yet unproven theory is that Omicron emerged in southern Africa due to the combination of very low vaccination rates and very high HIV prevalence, meaning lots of infections in immunocompromised individuals.
We only got a handle on polio, smallpox, etc. with a truly global rollout of vaccination. I see no reason why this time should be different.
posted by kersplunk at 1:22 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
One popular but as-yet unproven theory is that Omicron emerged in southern Africa due to the combination of very low vaccination rates and very high HIV prevalence, meaning lots of infections in immunocompromised individuals.
We only got a handle on polio, smallpox, etc. with a truly global rollout of vaccination. I see no reason why this time should be different.
posted by kersplunk at 1:22 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
I love this post's title.
posted by monotreme at 1:23 PM on December 13, 2021 [10 favorites]
posted by monotreme at 1:23 PM on December 13, 2021 [10 favorites]
If you are in England are able and willing to volunteer for a non-medical role in a vaccination hub, you can apply online.
People I know in London and the South East have been getting appointments for this week and next week, but they are people with flexible employers. I have one booked in for next Monday. The big vaccine hubs closed down over the autumn I think, so there are different sites now to earlier in the year. As well as people queuing, we also managed to overwhelm the NHS vaccine booking website, which is an awful lot better than overwhelming the NHS.
posted by plonkee at 1:31 PM on December 13, 2021 [5 favorites]
People I know in London and the South East have been getting appointments for this week and next week, but they are people with flexible employers. I have one booked in for next Monday. The big vaccine hubs closed down over the autumn I think, so there are different sites now to earlier in the year. As well as people queuing, we also managed to overwhelm the NHS vaccine booking website, which is an awful lot better than overwhelming the NHS.
posted by plonkee at 1:31 PM on December 13, 2021 [5 favorites]
Kudos to those volunteering.
In my area in the States, I think they cancelled all volunteering for anything pandemic related back in the summer due to "liability". The extreme politicization made it unfeasible, but maybe there are also elements of regulatory capture.
posted by meowzilla at 1:46 PM on December 13, 2021
In my area in the States, I think they cancelled all volunteering for anything pandemic related back in the summer due to "liability". The extreme politicization made it unfeasible, but maybe there are also elements of regulatory capture.
posted by meowzilla at 1:46 PM on December 13, 2021
Yeah, I'm in the queue to book online right now, which is a substantial improvement over the rest of the day that I spent waiting to be allowed to join the queue, or getting "the website has fallen over" messages.
There's no possible way they're going to get enough people jabbed in time to make a difference, especially since there won't be any other measures taken. We should be locking down, enforcing masking etc, but I doubt we'll ever do any of that again.
posted by BlueNorther at 1:51 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
There's no possible way they're going to get enough people jabbed in time to make a difference, especially since there won't be any other measures taken. We should be locking down, enforcing masking etc, but I doubt we'll ever do any of that again.
posted by BlueNorther at 1:51 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
The big vaccine hubs closed down over the autumn I think
The Etihad in Manchester is still running, for one.
posted by StephenB at 1:53 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
The Etihad in Manchester is still running, for one.
posted by StephenB at 1:53 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
it's still a really bad idea to get infected: every strain so far has led to long-term post viral complications among on the order of 10% of cases, and there is no evidence that omicron is less likely to cause long covid
If I could tattoo one thing on the forehead of everyone I meet, it would be that. It's not a question of "you either die or get better and statistically you probably won't die". It's very very likely that you'll live, but your life will never be the same.
I have dysautonomia, among other things, and it's overwhelmingly likely that getting Covid would make it significantly, perhaps permanently, worse. It's surprisingly hard to explain to people that no, I'm not that afraid of dying from Covid, I'm afraid of ending up permanently bed-bound and yes, that is a very likely outcome. It's not unlikely for you, generic abled person I'm trying to explain this to, either, since dysautonomia seems to be a prominent feature of long Covid for a lot of people.
The idea that either you die or it's a rough week is so engrained now, and I think if we could find a way to get people to see it differently it might make a difference. It's so frustrating.
Thank you for the space to vent :/
posted by BlueNorther at 2:11 PM on December 13, 2021 [36 favorites]
If I could tattoo one thing on the forehead of everyone I meet, it would be that. It's not a question of "you either die or get better and statistically you probably won't die". It's very very likely that you'll live, but your life will never be the same.
I have dysautonomia, among other things, and it's overwhelmingly likely that getting Covid would make it significantly, perhaps permanently, worse. It's surprisingly hard to explain to people that no, I'm not that afraid of dying from Covid, I'm afraid of ending up permanently bed-bound and yes, that is a very likely outcome. It's not unlikely for you, generic abled person I'm trying to explain this to, either, since dysautonomia seems to be a prominent feature of long Covid for a lot of people.
The idea that either you die or it's a rough week is so engrained now, and I think if we could find a way to get people to see it differently it might make a difference. It's so frustrating.
Thank you for the space to vent :/
posted by BlueNorther at 2:11 PM on December 13, 2021 [36 favorites]
I've got my booster booked for the 20th as long as I can get out of post-travel isolation in time- hopefully my day 2 PCR test results will be back by then. I do wonder if there will be a lot of people missing and needing to reschedule their booster appointments due to needing to self-isolate following Omicron exposure, just adding to the logistical nightmare of the rollout.
posted by hazyjane at 2:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by hazyjane at 2:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
This Party Sucks.
It's not that the Tories lack morals. It's that they also lack manners. There's only so much disrespect the British public can take.
Laurie Penny Hits it out of the park again.....
posted by lalochezia at 2:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [17 favorites]
It's not that the Tories lack morals. It's that they also lack manners. There's only so much disrespect the British public can take.
Laurie Penny Hits it out of the park again.....
posted by lalochezia at 2:12 PM on December 13, 2021 [17 favorites]
Dr. Coetzee was one of the first to discover the variant in South Africa. According to that Reuters article, she is also on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Vaccines.
So sure, she's not an immunologist (nor are many professionals on the front lines of COVID) and it is still early to tell what's going on but she is someone who is seeing and treating COVID cases. I just hate to see an actual medical professional's opinion minimized because she may not fit the type of professional we're used to seeing COVID news from in the the UK or US.
posted by kimberussell at 2:23 PM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
So sure, she's not an immunologist (nor are many professionals on the front lines of COVID) and it is still early to tell what's going on but she is someone who is seeing and treating COVID cases. I just hate to see an actual medical professional's opinion minimized because she may not fit the type of professional we're used to seeing COVID news from in the the UK or US.
posted by kimberussell at 2:23 PM on December 13, 2021 [8 favorites]
Thank you for that link, kimberussell!
Coetzee, who is also on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Vaccines, said unlike the Delta so far patients have not reported loss of smell or taste and there has been no major drop in oxygen levels with the new variant.
Her experience so far has been that the variant is affecting people who are 40 or younger. Almost half of the patients with Omicron symptoms that she treated were not vaccinated.
"The most predominant clinical complaint is severe fatigue for one or two days. With them, the headache and the body aches and pain."
It still doesn't say how many of the half had had a previous infection, or if the younger folk are getting this version because they're being less caution and eventually it will spread to the older people, but no loss of taste or smell is a good sign.
posted by subdee at 2:28 PM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
Coetzee, who is also on the Ministerial Advisory Committee on Vaccines, said unlike the Delta so far patients have not reported loss of smell or taste and there has been no major drop in oxygen levels with the new variant.
Her experience so far has been that the variant is affecting people who are 40 or younger. Almost half of the patients with Omicron symptoms that she treated were not vaccinated.
"The most predominant clinical complaint is severe fatigue for one or two days. With them, the headache and the body aches and pain."
It still doesn't say how many of the half had had a previous infection, or if the younger folk are getting this version because they're being less caution and eventually it will spread to the older people, but no loss of taste or smell is a good sign.
posted by subdee at 2:28 PM on December 13, 2021 [3 favorites]
Even the Times (Matthew Parris) is using phrases like "a moral toad crouching at the heart of the Establishment". Parris quotes himself from a few weeks ago saying "from his every engagement with human beings, someone emerges broken, and it's never Johnson". Goes on to say that the Tories may fall for "hollow posturing" again if they look to Truss as a possible successor. I don't see a successful challenge to Johnson any time soon though.
On vaccination numbers - I saw someone on Mumsnet saying her GP surgery had previously never done more than a thousand a day and now they are doing 1300. Locally (south-east city) there seems to be more availability than there was a week ago, and I've been able to bring a previously booked slot forward to this Saturday. We'd need something like 800 GP surgeries doing that sort of number to get to a million a day. There are about 9k GP surgeries ... so may be feasible? But depends on uptake, and it is a worry about what GP activity won't take place during this.
posted by paduasoy at 2:47 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
On vaccination numbers - I saw someone on Mumsnet saying her GP surgery had previously never done more than a thousand a day and now they are doing 1300. Locally (south-east city) there seems to be more availability than there was a week ago, and I've been able to bring a previously booked slot forward to this Saturday. We'd need something like 800 GP surgeries doing that sort of number to get to a million a day. There are about 9k GP surgeries ... so may be feasible? But depends on uptake, and it is a worry about what GP activity won't take place during this.
posted by paduasoy at 2:47 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
We only got a handle on polio, smallpox, etc. with a truly global rollout of vaccination. I see no reason why this time should be different.
Fox News was founded in 1996; OANN* in 2013. Admittedly, this is a North American-centric view, but I think their influence is global.
*So difficult not to type ONAN, as their feed seems to be composed of a masturbatory reverie wherein the most pressing public interest issues are Benghazi and Whitewater.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:59 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
Fox News was founded in 1996; OANN* in 2013. Admittedly, this is a North American-centric view, but I think their influence is global.
*So difficult not to type ONAN, as their feed seems to be composed of a masturbatory reverie wherein the most pressing public interest issues are Benghazi and Whitewater.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:59 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
So difficult not to type ONAN
Oh, they know. That is precisely the cohort to know who Onan is?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 3:03 PM on December 13, 2021
Oh, they know. That is precisely the cohort to know who Onan is?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 3:03 PM on December 13, 2021
Except that onanism is harmless and has health benefits.
posted by acb at 3:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 3:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
yeah but you don't want to see it on the evening news
posted by Greg_Ace at 3:20 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
posted by Greg_Ace at 3:20 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
If the only other option is fascist propaganda, I'm not so sure.
posted by acb at 3:37 PM on December 13, 2021 [9 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:37 PM on December 13, 2021 [9 favorites]
It's not the only other option; there's always the 'Off' button...
posted by Greg_Ace at 3:46 PM on December 13, 2021
posted by Greg_Ace at 3:46 PM on December 13, 2021
The NYT just had a story about Denmark where they are sequencing every positive. Omicron is blowing right through the double vaxed like they never even had a jab (75% of cases are double vaxed and 75% of the pop is double vaxed). If you want to avoid Omicron infection you have to go back to your early days avoidance and mitigation strategies.
Even it is milder there is going to a enormous wave of cases arriving at a speed (2 to 4X previous waves) that we will not be able to handle. Even if it is just people isolating for 7 days it is going to cause tremendous economic and social problems. Expect greater supply chain trouble that we have seen hereto for (I picked a great month to try and kick my cola habit as coca-cola deliveries have been failing to keep up with demand in my part of Chicago this week and this is before omicron shit hits the fan)
If it causes just a fraction of serious to severe cases hospitals are going to be overrun very quickly. Those improved treatments won't matter if you can't get them (and frankly they haven't mattered much yet - the CFR has consistently been above 1.3 for pretty much the whole pandemic and much worse during wave crests).
I think it's going to be a bad Xmas for a lot of people and a terrible start to the new year.
posted by srboisvert at 4:02 PM on December 13, 2021 [17 favorites]
Even it is milder there is going to a enormous wave of cases arriving at a speed (2 to 4X previous waves) that we will not be able to handle. Even if it is just people isolating for 7 days it is going to cause tremendous economic and social problems. Expect greater supply chain trouble that we have seen hereto for (I picked a great month to try and kick my cola habit as coca-cola deliveries have been failing to keep up with demand in my part of Chicago this week and this is before omicron shit hits the fan)
If it causes just a fraction of serious to severe cases hospitals are going to be overrun very quickly. Those improved treatments won't matter if you can't get them (and frankly they haven't mattered much yet - the CFR has consistently been above 1.3 for pretty much the whole pandemic and much worse during wave crests).
I think it's going to be a bad Xmas for a lot of people and a terrible start to the new year.
posted by srboisvert at 4:02 PM on December 13, 2021 [17 favorites]
I just hate to see an actual medical professional's opinion minimized because she may not fit the type of professional we're used to seeing COVID news from in the the UK or US.
She's being given a platform because she's telling people what they need to hear.
In a week or two we should have enough data on Omicron hospitalisations to begin to get an actual answer on whether Omicron is going to collapse health systems in countries that haven't already had >80% of the population catch Delta.
In the mean time there is a massive audience for good news.
posted by zymil at 4:05 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
She's being given a platform because she's telling people what they need to hear.
In a week or two we should have enough data on Omicron hospitalisations to begin to get an actual answer on whether Omicron is going to collapse health systems in countries that haven't already had >80% of the population catch Delta.
In the mean time there is a massive audience for good news.
posted by zymil at 4:05 PM on December 13, 2021 [6 favorites]
Meanwhile, across the Øresund Bridge, nobody wears masks (the rate is estimated at 2%), and Covid has dropped out of the news cycle. While the UK moves to boost 30-year-olds, there has been no news on boosters since November or so, when they became available to over-65s. Sweden slumbers on in blissful denial.
posted by acb at 4:07 PM on December 13, 2021
posted by acb at 4:07 PM on December 13, 2021
In the mean time there is a massive audience for good news.
Or, as they call it these days, hopium.
posted by acb at 4:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [15 favorites]
Or, as they call it these days, hopium.
posted by acb at 4:08 PM on December 13, 2021 [15 favorites]
It definitely feels like something has changed where I live in SW UK. Over the first 18 months of covid I must have known about 3-4 people get infected, in the last month maybe a dozen? Local rates aren't off the charts, not even as high as they were when the blonde imbecile brought the circus to town. Not sure what is going on.
I do know that to get the booster means a 70 minute bus ride each way, even though I live in the biggest town in the county, which is a frankly ludicrous approach to planning.
posted by biffa at 5:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
I do know that to get the booster means a 70 minute bus ride each way, even though I live in the biggest town in the county, which is a frankly ludicrous approach to planning.
posted by biffa at 5:19 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
Omicron looks like creating a perfect storm for us here in Australia. Cases are increasing across the country at the same time as state borders are opening up and the time of year means people are travelling more after being restricted in doing so for most of this year. The country is 75% vaccinated and much better than that in the most populous areas, which may or may not be a saving grace, we just don't know enough about Omicron yet to really know (but it's not looking good).
Mask requirements have been largely dropped in most places, which I think will prove to have been a mistake. Some states are severely restricting social access for the unvaccinated (eg my state has banned them from anything but essential retail), but it's not universal.
I flew interstate this morning for the first time since May and it feels weird and scary but, like most people here, I have to move on with life and work and I guess we'll see how bad a decision that turns out to be in due course.
posted by dg at 6:27 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
Mask requirements have been largely dropped in most places, which I think will prove to have been a mistake. Some states are severely restricting social access for the unvaccinated (eg my state has banned them from anything but essential retail), but it's not universal.
I flew interstate this morning for the first time since May and it feels weird and scary but, like most people here, I have to move on with life and work and I guess we'll see how bad a decision that turns out to be in due course.
posted by dg at 6:27 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
it looks likely that Omicron will infect a huge number of people in short order, absent very strong public health measures.
Australia is a lab for this. Look at the rapid recent rise in Reff in NSW, where Omicron seems to have first entered this country, compared to that in Victoria which is still a few weeks behind.
And yet the press is still calling the oncoming NSW avalanche a "spike" and the NSW Government is issuing reassurances that the easing of restrictions for the Christmas season will go ahead as planned. The refusal of so many people in responsible positions to understand how exponential growth works has me tearing what remains of my hair.
The country is 75% vaccinated and much better than that in the most populous areas
The numbers endlessly quoted in the Australian press are percentages of the eligible population vaccinated, not the total population. And until very recently, that's been people over the age of 16.
I don't think Omicron is going around with a clipboard doing surveys on people's birth dates before issuing them with their official infections.
posted by flabdablet at 7:28 PM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
Australia is a lab for this. Look at the rapid recent rise in Reff in NSW, where Omicron seems to have first entered this country, compared to that in Victoria which is still a few weeks behind.
And yet the press is still calling the oncoming NSW avalanche a "spike" and the NSW Government is issuing reassurances that the easing of restrictions for the Christmas season will go ahead as planned. The refusal of so many people in responsible positions to understand how exponential growth works has me tearing what remains of my hair.
The country is 75% vaccinated and much better than that in the most populous areas
The numbers endlessly quoted in the Australian press are percentages of the eligible population vaccinated, not the total population. And until very recently, that's been people over the age of 16.
I don't think Omicron is going around with a clipboard doing surveys on people's birth dates before issuing them with their official infections.
posted by flabdablet at 7:28 PM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
Number of people fully vaccinated in Australia as of 13-Dec: 18,402,326
Estimated Australian population as of 13-Dec: 25,927,259
71%.
So even if the vaxxes were 100% effective, which they're not, they'd be cutting the expected reproduction rate for this bastard virus by a factor of less than 4. And Omicron's unfettered reproduction rate is pretty clearly well over 4. So we're going to need public health measures well beyond vaccination to avoid a truly hideous January, but this is the Christmas season so there's no way we're going to get them.
Fucking death cults shit me to tears.
posted by flabdablet at 7:40 PM on December 13, 2021 [7 favorites]
Estimated Australian population as of 13-Dec: 25,927,259
71%.
So even if the vaxxes were 100% effective, which they're not, they'd be cutting the expected reproduction rate for this bastard virus by a factor of less than 4. And Omicron's unfettered reproduction rate is pretty clearly well over 4. So we're going to need public health measures well beyond vaccination to avoid a truly hideous January, but this is the Christmas season so there's no way we're going to get them.
Fucking death cults shit me to tears.
posted by flabdablet at 7:40 PM on December 13, 2021 [7 favorites]
I was just in a pub in Toronto on Saturday night -- everyone vaxxed, certificates checked at the door, and nominal masking, but in an environment where everyone is drinking, eating and cheering the Leafs masks become a fiction until you get up to go to the bathroom.
I'm triple vaxxed -- AZ, AZ and Pfizer -- but I'm pretty deeply concerned about my status, and I think I'm going to lay in a stock of those self-test kits.
posted by jrochest at 9:01 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
I'm triple vaxxed -- AZ, AZ and Pfizer -- but I'm pretty deeply concerned about my status, and I think I'm going to lay in a stock of those self-test kits.
posted by jrochest at 9:01 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
The numbers endlessly quoted in the Australian press are percentages of the eligible population vaccinated, not the total population
Yes, sorry, my bad. 71% is better than nothing, but it's really not enough. Bringing vaccines to school-age kids in January as planned may well be too late.
Not only are we not going to get any other measures over Christmas, but the horse has also bolted on widespread social controls like lockdowns, with politicians of all stripes promising hand on heart not to do that again. Having come from the relative safe haven of Queensland into the dark heart of NSW today I'm shitting myself a little and counting the days until I head home on Saturday but, as we keep being told, we have to 'learn to live with COVID' so I don't think it's going to matter too much by January where I am - COVID is coming for us all and we aren't all going to make it out the other side. That the dirty unvaccinated will be banned from almost every social situation in a week or so (in Queensland) may help slow the spread there, but it's all going to be too little too late.
posted by dg at 9:33 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
Yes, sorry, my bad. 71% is better than nothing, but it's really not enough. Bringing vaccines to school-age kids in January as planned may well be too late.
Not only are we not going to get any other measures over Christmas, but the horse has also bolted on widespread social controls like lockdowns, with politicians of all stripes promising hand on heart not to do that again. Having come from the relative safe haven of Queensland into the dark heart of NSW today I'm shitting myself a little and counting the days until I head home on Saturday but, as we keep being told, we have to 'learn to live with COVID' so I don't think it's going to matter too much by January where I am - COVID is coming for us all and we aren't all going to make it out the other side. That the dirty unvaccinated will be banned from almost every social situation in a week or so (in Queensland) may help slow the spread there, but it's all going to be too little too late.
posted by dg at 9:33 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
In Michigan, (United States) hospitals have been begging us for weeks to do ALL the mitigation things. Most people act like nothing is happening. I do not understand. This is Delta, probably not full Omicron. Strike that, I double do not get it! SMH!
posted by beckybakeroo at 10:51 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by beckybakeroo at 10:51 PM on December 13, 2021 [1 favorite]
The best thing about the Australian situation is how most of the older population was doubled-vaxxed with the AstraZeneca vaccine which seems to offer basically zero protection against omicron.
posted by moorooka at 11:48 PM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by moorooka at 11:48 PM on December 13, 2021 [4 favorites]
^ it me
posted by flabdablet at 11:53 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 11:53 PM on December 13, 2021 [2 favorites]
I'm not even that old (either my job or my ADHD got me priority, not sure which tbh) and I got AstraZeneca, which gave me horrible side effects twice and severely exacerbated my depression. I've been offered a booster, but I think my current risk of killing myself if I get sicker, or being unable to work because of long-term depression, is, on balance, the greatest risk to my health. Luckily, I've lived like a fucking hermit for the last decade anyway, so I've already practiced social distancing to Grade 8 and am ready to start teaching.
posted by howfar at 1:32 AM on December 14, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by howfar at 1:32 AM on December 14, 2021 [2 favorites]
AZ took me out of play for a day the first time. Just a bit of muscle soreness second time around. And having just now found out that the booster wait time in Australia has been reduced to 5 months, I've booked a ride on the Pfizer train for tomorrow afternoon. All aboard, ahchoo choo choo.
posted by flabdablet at 1:49 AM on December 14, 2021 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 1:49 AM on December 14, 2021 [2 favorites]
Denmark opened for third shots for everybody over 40 this Monday (until then the cut off was people vaccinated six months prior, so all elderly people have long since had the opportunity to be vaccinated)– I've gotten a reservation for Friday, 17/12.
Yesterday, we saw a record number of daily infected (7.799), and over the past week the number of Omicron cases have risen from 78 to 966. Statens Serum Institut (responsible for monitoring Covid-19) states that Omicron is now doubling every day (it was every second day just a few days ago), and that they expect to see more than 10.000 new cases per day within a week. The only bright spot is that hospitalisation is not increasing at nearly the same rate, but our hospitals have been stretched thin since March 2020 (for a number of reasons, some of them avoidable), and I do not think they have quite the same resilience as last year.
We are currently at 76,5% double vaccinated (of the entire population – I could not find the number of triple vaccinated), yesterday 185.451 were tested (4,21% positive) with 517 per million dead in total since Covid-19 began.
posted by bouvin at 3:06 AM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
Yesterday, we saw a record number of daily infected (7.799), and over the past week the number of Omicron cases have risen from 78 to 966. Statens Serum Institut (responsible for monitoring Covid-19) states that Omicron is now doubling every day (it was every second day just a few days ago), and that they expect to see more than 10.000 new cases per day within a week. The only bright spot is that hospitalisation is not increasing at nearly the same rate, but our hospitals have been stretched thin since March 2020 (for a number of reasons, some of them avoidable), and I do not think they have quite the same resilience as last year.
We are currently at 76,5% double vaccinated (of the entire population – I could not find the number of triple vaccinated), yesterday 185.451 were tested (4,21% positive) with 517 per million dead in total since Covid-19 began.
posted by bouvin at 3:06 AM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
Omicron looks like creating a perfect storm for us here in Australia. Cases are increasing across the country at the same time as state borders are opening up and the time of year means people are travelling more after being restricted in doing so for most of this year. The country is 75% vaccinated and much better than that in the most populous areas, which may or may not be a saving grace, we just don't know enough about Omicron yet to really know (but it's not looking good).
Since Denmark and the UK have about the same % of doubly vaccinated as Australia, if you want to know what this is going to look like in a few weeks, just watch those countries.
(and of course if boosters do turn out to be essential in fighting Omicron, the world's poorest people are going to get even fewer vaccine supplies than they otherwise would)
posted by atrazine at 4:12 AM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
Since Denmark and the UK have about the same % of doubly vaccinated as Australia, if you want to know what this is going to look like in a few weeks, just watch those countries.
(and of course if boosters do turn out to be essential in fighting Omicron, the world's poorest people are going to get even fewer vaccine supplies than they otherwise would)
posted by atrazine at 4:12 AM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
Poland officially hasn't found an omicron case yet. Except the one girl who's the first Omicron case in China. Our testing is a joke (you need a confirmed contact and/or symptoms for a free test)and positive cases are at 25% of tests. About the only reliable factor is excess mortality, which shows the Delta wave already decimated the less vaccinated regions despite low official case numbers, because people don't test there unless they're ill enough to be tested at hospital intake. And the state television is planning a New Year's Eve disco for 30,000 people. It's like we're in a race with the UK, US and other mortality leaders...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:58 AM on December 14, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 4:58 AM on December 14, 2021 [4 favorites]
Flabdablet, Fucking Death Cults Shit Me To Tears is my next tattoo. Thanks for that cathartic angry snort-laugh, I needed it.
posted by BlueNorther at 8:39 AM on December 14, 2021 [4 favorites]
posted by BlueNorther at 8:39 AM on December 14, 2021 [4 favorites]
We are currently at 76,5% double vaccinated (of the entire population – I could not find the number of triple vaccinated)
Not Denmark stats but if anyone is curious I recently read that somewhere around 15% of the US is boosted and around 7% of Canada.
posted by srboisvert at 9:13 AM on December 14, 2021
Not Denmark stats but if anyone is curious I recently read that somewhere around 15% of the US is boosted and around 7% of Canada.
posted by srboisvert at 9:13 AM on December 14, 2021
Guardian: High levels of previous exposure to three previous waves of coronavirus infection in South Africa may explain the relatively low levels of hospitalisation and severe disease in the current outbreak of the Omicron variant, rather than the variant itself being less virulent...
“You have large pockets of population immunity … We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected or if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalised individuals.”
... While the UK has a seropositivity rate above 90%, South Africa’s experience may be very different to the UK’s in terms of the Omicron, with the UK having an older population and different vulnerabilities to disease.
posted by credulous at 11:45 AM on December 14, 2021
“You have large pockets of population immunity … We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected or if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalised individuals.”
... While the UK has a seropositivity rate above 90%, South Africa’s experience may be very different to the UK’s in terms of the Omicron, with the UK having an older population and different vulnerabilities to disease.
posted by credulous at 11:45 AM on December 14, 2021
Mrs. Example and I both got AstraZeneca for our first two doses here in the UK, so the latest news is a bit worrying. Fortunately, we managed to get in for our boosters before the big rush started this week. We're a blended family--Pfizer and Moderna.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 12:32 PM on December 14, 2021
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 12:32 PM on December 14, 2021
And yet the press is still calling the oncoming NSW avalanche a "spike" and the NSW Government is issuing reassurances that the easing of restrictions for the Christmas season will go ahead as planned. The refusal of so many people in responsible positions to understand how exponential growth works has me tearing what remains of my hair.
I think the officials (at least some of them) understand very well how exponential growth works. What they also understand is that if they take all of the needed but politically unpopular steps, like requiring masks and vaccines, and closing businesses, etc, and it reduces the severity of the outbreak to a manageable level, that will read to the general public like they were inconvenienced for no reason, because "it wasn't that bad, after all."
posted by subdee at 1:22 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
I think the officials (at least some of them) understand very well how exponential growth works. What they also understand is that if they take all of the needed but politically unpopular steps, like requiring masks and vaccines, and closing businesses, etc, and it reduces the severity of the outbreak to a manageable level, that will read to the general public like they were inconvenienced for no reason, because "it wasn't that bad, after all."
posted by subdee at 1:22 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
technically vax volunteers (I just got trained and did my first shift; getting boosted tomorrow) are specifically not allowed to accept gifts but fuck it surely a snack or two is okay? I’ll check. It’s the same in care work.
posted by lokta at 1:46 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
posted by lokta at 1:46 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
Since Denmark and the UK have about the same % of doubly vaccinated as Australia, if you want to know what this is going to look like in a few weeks, just watch those countries.
That does make sense, except that Australia hasn't really followed anything like the same patterns on a national basis previously. Those models may work in cities like Melbourne and Sydney, where widespread and persistent major outbreaks have occurred with depressing regularity, but these haven't occurred in the rest of the country. There must be another factor like population density and culture/lifestyle at play here. Those major outbreaks have now been given a chance to spread through the opening of state borders this week, so we may see the infection rates rise to the point where they are similar across the country (except for Western Autralia, which persists in keeping itself isolated). Within days of borders opening, we're already seeing a clearly traceable spread of Omicron from New South Wales and Victoria into other states.
Politicians are well aware of the exponential growth issue, but they are politicians and the time has passed when they can make incredibly unpopular decisions that are justified by the facts and get away with it. The population is no longer prepared to make the sacrifices needed to contain the spread and have been convinced that the risk is worth the reward that will come from opening up the economy. The term 'living with COVID' has been bandied around so much that it's become largely accepted as inevitable and politicians have been able to get away with telling people COVID is going to get much, much worse for us and we just have to accept it and get on with life. For some, that's going to mean life ending and, for some, life will never be the same.
At the heart of this is an incredibly unenviable position politicians are in of having to make decisions they know will kill people, because the population (albeit not all by any means) is no longer prepared to pay the economic and social cost of ongoing lockdowns and border restrictions. For those vulnerable people in society, this means the cost of keeping safe will be borne by them alone (effective self-isolation) and not shared by the broader community any longer. It's a sad and scary situation, but I honestly don't know that I'd do any different if the choice were mine. Controlling the spread has come at an enormous cost (not just in monetary terms) that will be borne by the next generation.
posted by dg at 1:50 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
That does make sense, except that Australia hasn't really followed anything like the same patterns on a national basis previously. Those models may work in cities like Melbourne and Sydney, where widespread and persistent major outbreaks have occurred with depressing regularity, but these haven't occurred in the rest of the country. There must be another factor like population density and culture/lifestyle at play here. Those major outbreaks have now been given a chance to spread through the opening of state borders this week, so we may see the infection rates rise to the point where they are similar across the country (except for Western Autralia, which persists in keeping itself isolated). Within days of borders opening, we're already seeing a clearly traceable spread of Omicron from New South Wales and Victoria into other states.
Politicians are well aware of the exponential growth issue, but they are politicians and the time has passed when they can make incredibly unpopular decisions that are justified by the facts and get away with it. The population is no longer prepared to make the sacrifices needed to contain the spread and have been convinced that the risk is worth the reward that will come from opening up the economy. The term 'living with COVID' has been bandied around so much that it's become largely accepted as inevitable and politicians have been able to get away with telling people COVID is going to get much, much worse for us and we just have to accept it and get on with life. For some, that's going to mean life ending and, for some, life will never be the same.
At the heart of this is an incredibly unenviable position politicians are in of having to make decisions they know will kill people, because the population (albeit not all by any means) is no longer prepared to pay the economic and social cost of ongoing lockdowns and border restrictions. For those vulnerable people in society, this means the cost of keeping safe will be borne by them alone (effective self-isolation) and not shared by the broader community any longer. It's a sad and scary situation, but I honestly don't know that I'd do any different if the choice were mine. Controlling the spread has come at an enormous cost (not just in monetary terms) that will be borne by the next generation.
posted by dg at 1:50 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
So I got thrown off the Pfizer train because I can't basic arithmetic.
For months I've had it in my mind that I'd be eligible for a booster in mid January. Then they announced pulling back the wait time from six months to five and I'm all woo-hoo, let's go.
Turns out that the middle of December is four months from the middle of August, not five. Who knew? Only everybody who can do kindergarten-level subtraction correctly, apparently.
Fuxache.
The really annoying part is that people younger than me, who became eligible for their first dose a month after I did, got Pfizer to begin with and only had to wait three weeks for their second, which means they are all eligible for boosters right now. I had to wait thirteen weeks for my second dose of AZ, which means I've ended up with piss-poor Omicron immunity and a forced wait for half-decent protection until well after Omicron will have got a serious rampage going in my home State.
Fuck you, Morrison, you pissant happy clappy "it's not a race" piece of shit.
posted by flabdablet at 9:26 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
For months I've had it in my mind that I'd be eligible for a booster in mid January. Then they announced pulling back the wait time from six months to five and I'm all woo-hoo, let's go.
Turns out that the middle of December is four months from the middle of August, not five. Who knew? Only everybody who can do kindergarten-level subtraction correctly, apparently.
Fuxache.
The really annoying part is that people younger than me, who became eligible for their first dose a month after I did, got Pfizer to begin with and only had to wait three weeks for their second, which means they are all eligible for boosters right now. I had to wait thirteen weeks for my second dose of AZ, which means I've ended up with piss-poor Omicron immunity and a forced wait for half-decent protection until well after Omicron will have got a serious rampage going in my home State.
Fuck you, Morrison, you pissant happy clappy "it's not a race" piece of shit.
posted by flabdablet at 9:26 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
The population is no longer prepared to make the sacrifices needed to contain the spread and have been convinced that the risk is worth the reward that will come from opening up the economy.
"The population" is actually fine with it. A pack of noisy stupid fucks brainwashed and radicalized by the Murdoch death beams has the political class spooked, is all this is. Mark McGowan in Western Australia is the only Australian political leader with a shred of fucking sense remaining at this point.
posted by flabdablet at 9:31 PM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
"The population" is actually fine with it. A pack of noisy stupid fucks brainwashed and radicalized by the Murdoch death beams has the political class spooked, is all this is. Mark McGowan in Western Australia is the only Australian political leader with a shred of fucking sense remaining at this point.
posted by flabdablet at 9:31 PM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
I'm on the AZ train as well and now eligible for a booster from 29 December.
It was always a race and everyone except ScoMo knew it.
posted by dg at 9:31 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
It was always a race and everyone except ScoMo knew it.
posted by dg at 9:31 PM on December 14, 2021 [1 favorite]
While a fair proportion of the population may be OK with it, my perception is that the majority are simply tired and want to get back to some semblance of life without giving much thought to the potential cost. The stupid fucks that let themselves be brainwashed by Murdoch's minions and the Facebook liars are very much a noisy minority and they've found each other in a sort of fucked-up solidarity where they throw rocks at an 'enemy' they can see rather than working with everyone else to defeat one they can't won't.
If it wasn't for the fact that it would take down at least as many good people as violent dickheads, Omicron could be the perfect herd-thinner.
posted by dg at 9:42 PM on December 14, 2021
If it wasn't for the fact that it would take down at least as many good people as violent dickheads, Omicron could be the perfect herd-thinner.
posted by dg at 9:42 PM on December 14, 2021
the majority are simply tired and want to get back to some semblance of life without giving much thought to the potential cost.
Today's Reff for NSW is estimated at 2.43 by Chris Billington's model, which has literally everybody in NSW catching Omicron before I become eligible for my booster.
Lucky I'm in Victoria, I guess, he said with no real conviction.
I'm tired. I want to get back to some semblance of life. I don't want to die from COVID-19, especially for no better reason than that Rupert Murdoch has decreed that I must risk doing so.
posted by flabdablet at 10:18 PM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
Today's Reff for NSW is estimated at 2.43 by Chris Billington's model, which has literally everybody in NSW catching Omicron before I become eligible for my booster.
Lucky I'm in Victoria, I guess, he said with no real conviction.
I'm tired. I want to get back to some semblance of life. I don't want to die from COVID-19, especially for no better reason than that Rupert Murdoch has decreed that I must risk doing so.
posted by flabdablet at 10:18 PM on December 14, 2021 [3 favorites]
Even the normally unflappable Dr John Campbell is looking faintly concerned at the prospect of the UK seeing a million cases per day some time next month.
Given that I'll probably be exposed to COVID before being allowed a booster, I will take his advice on good nutrition and getting plenty of sleep since these measures are cheap, readily available and unlikely to do me any harm.
Jingle bells, ScoMo smells, Boris go away...
posted by flabdablet at 4:04 AM on December 15, 2021 [1 favorite]
Given that I'll probably be exposed to COVID before being allowed a booster, I will take his advice on good nutrition and getting plenty of sleep since these measures are cheap, readily available and unlikely to do me any harm.
Jingle bells, ScoMo smells, Boris go away...
posted by flabdablet at 4:04 AM on December 15, 2021 [1 favorite]
UK reports highest daily cases since the pandemic began.
And we're still in the early days of Omicron impacting these numbers. Jinkies.
For comparison, on this day last week London alone had 6,988 cases. Today it's 19,294. I hope governments worldwide are watching this very closely, because it's about to do the same thing everywhere else.
posted by fight or flight at 9:01 AM on December 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
And we're still in the early days of Omicron impacting these numbers. Jinkies.
For comparison, on this day last week London alone had 6,988 cases. Today it's 19,294. I hope governments worldwide are watching this very closely, because it's about to do the same thing everywhere else.
posted by fight or flight at 9:01 AM on December 15, 2021 [2 favorites]
UK reports highest daily cases since the pandemic began.
And we're still in the early days of Omicron impacting these numbers. Jinkies.
For comparison, on this day last week London alone had 6,988 cases. Today it's 19,294. I hope governments worldwide are watching this very closely, because it's about to do the same thing everywhere else.
The UK isn't really the point of the omicron infection spear though. It is just the country with the most extensive testing regimen (they are testing at something like 4X the US rate for example). So they are detecting a lot more asymptomatic cases then anyone else. I do think it is important to watch them but not as the bellwether but as in indicator of what is probably currently going on under the radar of every other country. Extensive and fast asymptomatic spread means it absolutely will get past the defenses intended to protect the elderly and vulnerable.
The terrible thing is that right around Christmas is when we should get the real solid evidence of whether this is a catastrophe or not due to the lags at each stage from initial infections of young and hale to spread in vulnerable age groups to hospitalization and to death.
posted by srboisvert at 11:31 AM on December 15, 2021 [3 favorites]
And we're still in the early days of Omicron impacting these numbers. Jinkies.
For comparison, on this day last week London alone had 6,988 cases. Today it's 19,294. I hope governments worldwide are watching this very closely, because it's about to do the same thing everywhere else.
The UK isn't really the point of the omicron infection spear though. It is just the country with the most extensive testing regimen (they are testing at something like 4X the US rate for example). So they are detecting a lot more asymptomatic cases then anyone else. I do think it is important to watch them but not as the bellwether but as in indicator of what is probably currently going on under the radar of every other country. Extensive and fast asymptomatic spread means it absolutely will get past the defenses intended to protect the elderly and vulnerable.
The terrible thing is that right around Christmas is when we should get the real solid evidence of whether this is a catastrophe or not due to the lags at each stage from initial infections of young and hale to spread in vulnerable age groups to hospitalization and to death.
posted by srboisvert at 11:31 AM on December 15, 2021 [3 favorites]
My biggest fear though is that this is now a double pandemic. Omicron may not displace the Delta variant at all. If they are sufficiently different that infection with delta doesn't prevent omicron the inverse may also be true (but not necessarily). If so we could have two highly infectious variants that don't compete but instead share or take turns and in some awful cases cause simultaneous infections (which means hospitals will be that much more dangerous for patients and staff).
posted by srboisvert at 11:43 AM on December 15, 2021 [3 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 11:43 AM on December 15, 2021 [3 favorites]
Lucky I'm in Victoria, I guess, he said with no real conviction.
I genuinely feel for you and everyone in Victoria - you've been through by far the worst experience in the country, while we in Queensland have been relatively untouched so far. Those in the coastal region around the Qld/NSW border have had it the worst, with the border closure cutting the Gold Coast (where I live) and Tweed Coast in half (apart from the nominal border, it's really all one city), but nothing close to what Victoria has been through. With our border now open and further closures incredibly unlikely, we are going to be hit just as badly as everyone else and case numbers are already climbing due to interstate travellers. It's scary that every single one of those who've been identified as positive after travelling to Queensland have tested negative prior to departing - I wonder if the testing regime is somehow missing Omicron? I need to have a test today in preparation for heading back to Qld on Saturday and am worried about getting a positive result and being stuck in hotel isolation.
posted by dg at 1:09 PM on December 15, 2021
I genuinely feel for you and everyone in Victoria - you've been through by far the worst experience in the country, while we in Queensland have been relatively untouched so far. Those in the coastal region around the Qld/NSW border have had it the worst, with the border closure cutting the Gold Coast (where I live) and Tweed Coast in half (apart from the nominal border, it's really all one city), but nothing close to what Victoria has been through. With our border now open and further closures incredibly unlikely, we are going to be hit just as badly as everyone else and case numbers are already climbing due to interstate travellers. It's scary that every single one of those who've been identified as positive after travelling to Queensland have tested negative prior to departing - I wonder if the testing regime is somehow missing Omicron? I need to have a test today in preparation for heading back to Qld on Saturday and am worried about getting a positive result and being stuck in hotel isolation.
posted by dg at 1:09 PM on December 15, 2021
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They only did 560k on Sunday and just shy of 400k in the 24 hrs to Monday afternoon. The most they've ever done before is 750k. At the time they were more supply constrained whereas now its just logistics.
I've spoken to someone who works at a vaccine centre today, they've been told that their opening hours and days will be substantially extended from tomorrow. Ideally they would have put a bit of welly into this a few weeks ago but I suppose they thought that boosting everyone by the end of January (the previous goal) was good enough and have now realised that they need some combination of faster boosters and more restrictions.
Restrictions will be hard, a lot of the conservative party really don't like them and the government will need opposition votes to add restrictions this week, obviously conduct by members of the government does make it rather harder to make the case for that sort of thing.
I think the world will be watching this closely, the UK has relatively high primary vaccination coverage but not quite like Portugal or Spain and very high booster coverage. It's also not that clear where omicron is currently. The UK and Denmark do an unusual amount of sequencing (and South Africa does more sequencing than any of its neighbours) so there is a genuine question whether it might not have spread much more widely by now.
posted by atrazine at 10:15 AM on December 13, 2021 [11 favorites]