Who Has Power Now
February 6, 2022 9:03 AM   Subscribe

The Making of a Modern Republican (Jonathan Swan and Lachlan Markay for Axios) Paths to power and winning elections inside the GOP are changing rapidly and radically, spawning a new generation of kingmakers while diminishing the clout of many who lorded over the party for years.
posted by box (34 comments total) 15 users marked this as a favorite
 
We have the unique privilege of watching an entire political party crash and burn all to assuage the vanity of one con man desperate to stay out of jail.

It is quite something.
posted by Max Power at 9:19 AM on February 6, 2022 [25 favorites]


The thing is, this was all predictable the moment when the Democratic Party embraced the Civil Rights Act. The White racists fled to the Republicans and the Republicans, to their dismay, are dependent on their deplorable "base." The Republican party is the last refuge for crazy people. I saw this coming decades ago and don't see a way out for them.
posted by SPrintF at 9:24 AM on February 6, 2022 [24 favorites]


I'm still reading this, and just really struck, as I often am, by how they just keep ratcheting further and further right. The "establishment" is incredibly rightwing already.
posted by pelvicsorcery at 9:35 AM on February 6, 2022 [3 favorites]


Here's hoping for a split into a Trump-Fascist rump party and a Corporate-Neoliberal mainstream party.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:53 AM on February 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


It's a group of white people desperate to hold on to social and political power in the face of an unstoppable, but slow demographic shift that will turn their group into a minority. (Specifically a "Majority minority where they're still the largest demographic by percentage, but still <50% of the whole.) The increasing right-wing, authoritarian politics of the GOP is an attempt to create an apartheid state that allows them to maintain that power in the face of that demographic shift.

This explains so much of the GOP strategy, including COVID, where they operated on the assumption that the disease would kill enough of the "right people" that it would slow down that demographic shift. Unfortunately for them, the COVID strategy has backfired and it's killing more of their people than the ones they wanted to be killed, which is why you see Trump and some other GOP leaders trying to shift the messaging towards getting vaccinated and boosted, though with caveats and walkbacks so they don't lose the most fervent supporters who have internalized the previous messaging on COVID.

On a long enough timescale, the shifting demographics will cause these people to lose power. The amount of damage they can do before then, however, is massive.
posted by SansPoint at 9:58 AM on February 6, 2022 [25 favorites]


With the old guard, whether or not they have been fully displaced, the cynicism and quest for power was fairly obvious. Aside from H—-ty and C—-son, I think all of the new power brokers fully believe what they say, which I find terrifying.

Also, I love to see Joe Rogan on this list. And I love seeing him getting dragged right now in general. His plausible deniability schtick wore itself out years ago. I doubt he will face any kind of mea culpa, but I think if he were ever pushed he would easily stop pretending. He’s basically Alex Jones lite as it is.
posted by Conrad-Casserole at 10:05 AM on February 6, 2022 [9 favorites]


I think the assumption that the Republican party will "crash and burn" is too generous and optimistic. It certainly still seems to be doing fine to me in terms of holding onto power! The RNC just laid claim to open treason like it's no biggie.

And there's no hope for any fraction of the GOP to become a corporate-neoliberal party. You've already described mainstream Democrats. Anyone who's main issue was fiscal conservativism has switched parties already. Everyone who's left is banking on hate, Liz Cheney as much as the rest of them.
posted by rikschell at 10:14 AM on February 6, 2022 [41 favorites]


I remember in college in the mid 90's looking at political science and the recruitment pipeline into the Republican Party and the right of center think tanks. They had a severe problem back then. If you were a right of center college student, and you inhaled the triumphant air of 1989, do you a. go into politics, and go from one microphone to the next reciting platitudes about the free market? or b. go out into a profession and make serious amounts of money in it?

As you can guess, the people taking option a. were walking examples of "those who can, do, and those who can't, talk about it nonstop while running for office." Mediocre intellects and mediocre characters, every last one of them. Ready to take orders from their paymasters. (Which I'm sure was seen as a feature, not a bug, by most of them.)

Now I notice about this article that it concentrates on who the paymasters are now. That's one issue. The other of course is that the people going into this pipeline aren't the weak-spoken types of years past, but instead the worst, full of passionate intensity.
posted by ocschwar at 10:26 AM on February 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


Meanwhile in Bothsideslandia, the NYT has this up top right now: ‘Taking the Voters Out of the Equation’: How the Parties Are Killing Competition

posted by OnTheLastCastle at 10:48 AM on February 6, 2022 [6 favorites]


hippybear: They already are going after the queers. All the arguments in the current Trans Panic are just the same arguments from the Gay Panic of the 80s and 90s, right down to child abuse, and with the added fear of mad doctors coming to mutilate children's genitals. Generally speaking, in American society, homosexuality and gay marriage is largely a settled issue. I don't expect there will be much attempt to roll back legal rights there for quite some time, if at all. What we may see is a push from the far right for Russian style laws restricting the "promotion" of queer identities, but even that will be limited by how mainstreamed the idea of things like gay pride and the like are in parts of the US, and how major corporations have seized upon it as a marketing strategy.
posted by SansPoint at 10:49 AM on February 6, 2022 [11 favorites]


On a long enough timescale, the shifting demographics will cause these people to lose power.

I've been hearing this for so long, but I wonder if it's true. Because even with fair elections and so on, the Republican party attracts (a) people who believe that there should be a social hierarchy, and that their place in the hierarchy is being threatened by people who should damn well be below them, and (b) people who think in terms of "fuck you, got mine" or "fuck you, I just want to get mine".

If there's anything that's been true throughout US history it's that the group of people in category (a) keeps expanding. It's easy to think that "white people" are the ones who belong in that category (a group that today encompasses not only people of English origin but also people of Scottish and Irish origin, and Polish and German and Swedish and Italian origin, and Jewish origin, and so on -- lots of groups that were once actively kept far down the ladder), and it's easy to think that, say, Black and Hispanic and Southeast Asian and East Asian voters will keep voting Democratic because they realize that the people in category (a) are doing their best to keep them down. But it's just as probable that more and more of them will start to see themselves as "temporarily frustrated millionaires elites" whose place in the hierarchy is being threatened by other groups trying to rise up from below (who don't deserve "handouts" because they don't work as hard, or don't have good enough values, or are inherently violent, or ...). I think it's a mistake to underestimate people's desire to maintain a hierarchy so long as they can have any hope of being accepted anywhere near the top of it.

As for the "fuck you, it's about me" group, I think the appeal of that is pretty timeless and universal.
posted by trig at 11:00 AM on February 6, 2022 [34 favorites]


I see how the Republican party is becoming increasingly vile, and how a certain kind of evil is ascendant right now, sometimes at the expense of a few (also evil) players. Despite this shift, which seems like it would be intolerable to most human beings, I don't see the Republican party actually getting any less powerful right now. I'm not sure where all the optimism about its collapse is coming from.
posted by snofoam at 11:02 AM on February 6, 2022 [11 favorites]


All the arguments in the current Trans Panic are just the same arguments from the Gay Panic of the 80s and 90s

One scary part of the current transphobia movement is that it is very much bipartisan, and if the UK is any indication, it will only get worse on the liberal side. Even liberals who are not blatantly transphobic are rushing to the defense of the out-and-out bigots, as with the case of Jon Stewart tut-tutting about Chappelle and Rogan.

Generally speaking, in American society, homosexuality and gay marriage is largely a settled issue. I don't expect there will be much attempt to roll back legal rights there for quite some time, if at all.

I've read Roberts' spittle-flecked tirade in the 5-4 decisions on gay marriage, and that was before Trump replaced a third of the court with culture war nutjobs. I absolutely would not bet on this outcome.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 11:12 AM on February 6, 2022 [19 favorites]


I'm a little sceptical of the claim that the Koch network no longer matters. Americans for Progress continues to literally write legislation and send it to right-wing legislators, especially at the state level.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:12 AM on February 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


What we may see is a push from the far right for Russian style laws restricting the "promotion" of queer identities

"House committee in Florida passes 'Don't Say Gay' bill.

posted by clavdivs at 11:14 AM on February 6, 2022 [8 favorites]


I am the very model of a modern Major-Republican I've information vegetable, animal, and mineral
I know the kings of England, and I quote the fights Historical
From Drudge Report to NRA, in order categorical
I'm very well acquainted, too, with matters problematical
I understand invasions, both the simple and collateral
About colonial theorums I'm teeming with a lot o' news
With many cheerful facts about the sphere of Edward Cruz...
posted by Lanark at 11:51 AM on February 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


As for the "fuck you, it's about me" group, I think the appeal of that is pretty timeless and universal.

The rise of conservative politicians with backgrounds on the Indian sub-continent in the UK has been depressing to see - running as MP's for UKIP (Sergi Singh) and in the Tory party (Preeti Patel, RIshi Sunak). Conservatives globally have a fertile field of sociopaths to draw from.
posted by phigmov at 11:53 AM on February 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


It's a group of white people desperate to hold on to social and political power in the face of an unstoppable, but slow demographic shift that will turn their group into a minority.

This is not exactly what you are saying, but this statement is adjacent to a dangerous liberal fantasy. Many liberals seem to rely on the almost messianic idea that people of color will just sort of... passively bring about the end of the conservative/fascist movement through sheer numbers. This is a naïve perspective. Demographic shifts will not save America from itself, though they may well elicit more and more violence from segments of white America. Conservative and reactionary sympathies exist all over the world, including among many people who immigrate to America. And as pointed out above, America's definition of whiteness has changed and expanded over time to maintain the distribution of America's caste system. This belief is akin to the soothing myth that young people, as a monolithic group, will one of these days magically save the world from climate change through... through sheer pluck or something.
posted by cubeb at 12:55 PM on February 6, 2022 [49 favorites]


Between 2016 and 2020 Trump increased his vote share with all minority categories of voter. You need to do more than just wait for the yts to die off.
posted by moorooka at 1:10 PM on February 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


America's definition of whiteness has changed and expanded over time to maintain the distribution of America's caste system.

Yet the republican party clings to the idea of whiteness. This is an urban/rural divide. And brown folks need not apply, just pick the fucking crops please and take your pennies.

Cons are billowing smoke like a redneck rolling coal. Dog whistles are now bullhorns.

Mouth pieces siding with Russia RUSSIA over Ukrainian sovereignty.

Lokal oafs think they now have the autonomy to decide elections, not just count votes, but discard them if they don't like the results.

Fail army crashing like an F 35.

These people have nothing but myopic fear and racism.
posted by Max Power at 1:17 PM on February 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm already starting to wonder about making plans for when they come after the queers.

Given the recently passed law in Florida making it..unwise..to talk about gay people in schools I fear that you are correct in thinking that it's when, not if.
posted by wierdo at 1:18 PM on February 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


Authoritarian is on the rise widewide, populaism is also on the rise worldwide, in the US the populism is mostly on the right-wing side because we don't have a powerful populist movement on the left unless you count Bernie's organization.

The funny thing is... Look at the axiom Article. Are we really sad that the fucking heritage foundation, NRA, national review, Koch brothers and tea party don't have the power over the republican party they used to have???? All those groups suck anyway??????

But hearing that the power is now with trump and cronies, fox news, britbart, OAN and fucking Tucker Carlson doesn't exactly inspire confidence either. It would be great to see a true grassroots conservative movement that wasn't based on hate and paranoia and fear of the other, and dark money influence, but that's what we keep getting ... That the chamber of commerce now backs democrats is telling. Biden posing in front of a backdrop for Chase bank.

And off these trends are more likely than not to continue as the shocks and disruptions from climate change, the shocks and disruptions from the pandemic, and generally the shocks and disruptions as US hegemony ebbs away, all continue. But personally I'm in a hurry to rush into this fascist authoritarian future when we don't have to go there this quickly. There's a lot of good still left in the civic and legal structurez in the US that are just being dismantled right now.
posted by subdee at 1:51 PM on February 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm NOT in a hurry to rush into this fascist authoritarian future... Edit window closed -_-
posted by subdee at 1:57 PM on February 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I'm going to get legally high now in this fascist authoritarian future.
posted by Max Power at 2:28 PM on February 6, 2022


I'm going to get legally high now in this fascist authoritarian future.

So you're saying you're a centrist?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:41 PM on February 6, 2022 [4 favorites]


Demographic shifts will not save America from itself

When GOP disinformation targets Biden as socialist or that the direction was stolen, it resonates with Latinos, Vietnamese, and others with experience with repressive regimes. Not only will they then vote Republican, they will even, as the article notes, donate money to groups like the Proud Boys, who present themselves as saving the American way.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 3:04 PM on February 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


When GOP disinformation targets Biden as socialist or that the direction was stolen

we are all concerned about the direction.

Tighten it up.
posted by Max Power at 3:12 PM on February 6, 2022


Sadly, what happens in Miami doesn't stay in Miami.
posted by wierdo at 4:01 PM on February 6, 2022


It's a group of white people desperate to hold on to social and political power in the face of an unstoppable, but slow demographic shift that will turn their group into a minority.


This is not exactly what you are saying, but this statement is adjacent to a dangerous liberal fantasy. Many liberals seem to rely on the almost messianic idea that people of color will just sort of... passively bring about the end of the conservative/fascist movement through sheer numbers. This is a naïve perspective. Demographic shifts will not save America from itself, though they may well elicit more and more violence from segments of white America.

Good points.

What's the data on this?

This book in 2004 foretold the "Emerging Democratic Majority". Not sure that happened.

Counterpoint: I live in California which is a definitely pluality of ethnicities, and we have a Democratic trifecta here that seems unlikely to change.

Most of the covid-death data I've seen has the strongest correlation not with republican vs. democrat (though that is strong) but with % of nonwhite citizens in the voting block.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 4:46 PM on February 6, 2022 [2 favorites]


I mean, both things are true. There are people of color that maybe would have voted R if the Republicans weren't wedded to Whiteness As It Exists and there hatred of anyone not in that category. Their own fiery hatred is what's keeping people in the Democrats' big tent when they might have otherwise left.
posted by pelvicsorcery at 5:14 PM on February 6, 2022 [1 favorite]


There's also the grim reality, re internal queer politics, that TERF ideology is essentially a fascist view of feminism: an eternal, zero sum struggle where there can only be winners and losers. As in any fascist movement, TERF philosophies argue that if the struggle is eternal, then the right people--those who subscribe to its ideas--should be the ones who win that struggle. We have to keep our eyes out, as we try to negotiate these terrifying times, for ideologies that reduce a complicated world to a zero sum game. Fascism spins itself into forms that appeal to all kinds of people. TERFism is a variant that appeals to women, but there are variants that appeal to lots of kinds of people and groups. We have to accept that there will be strains of fascism adapted to lots of different groups of confused, frightened, and angry people, and we have to identify the drivers of that ideology and squelch it without relying on shorthands about what kinds of people we find in different places in conflict.

This is not an argument for desperately clinging to any hope of consensus when threatened with conflict: it's an argument for trying to keep our heads clear, watching out for potential allies, and remembering that none of us are alone in the long run. This is going to be a long, bloody fight. The Republican Party must be torn from power, and that means ripping the fig leaves of respectability from those worms wherever they rear their heads. But it's wise to be careful about where we aim our targets, try to encourage one another about what we can do to improve a bad situation, and to not allow ourselves to dissolve into despair too often. The future is not written yet. We write our futures, collectively, wherever we go and whatever we do, every single day.

On that note: there's a lot that is frightening right now, but there are a lot of people who are reacting, too. I'm talking here about queer spaces because that's my community, but everything I say is equally applicable to other groups I belong to. We can't be too complacent about how any of "our" people would never ally with evil people to win a great, terrifying conflict. We can't let ourselves think in terms of homogeneous groups, because that's not how communities work. Individually, people are going to make all kinds of decisions based on their personal ideas, contexts, and desires. That's how people work. Within the queer community, we see individual communities and groups doing very different things based on their values about the relative importance of justice and power.

If we make a better world, then, we will do so not by the triumph of groups of people but by the triumph of ideas. For all that TERFs are horrifyingly bold, pushback against TERF beliefs is strong and powerful in many places, and active resistance to their ideas is rising in many places that no one could have imagined ten years ago. In response to TERFs, scholars and teachers and parents and children and adults and health care professionals are responding hotly. The war of ideas about who is worthy of respect is waging onward. The presence of a threat does not mean that there aren't many people who see that threat and are trying to do something about it.

Maybe there aren't enough of us trying, but no one is standing alone here either. It's a big scary world, but we win it by at least pretending to confidence that winning is possible.
posted by sciatrix at 7:19 PM on February 6, 2022 [7 favorites]


Bee'sWing > Here's hoping for a split into a Trump-Fascist rump party and a Corporate-Neoliberal mainstream party.

Easy enough – The Donald frequently switches political parties when they don’t suit him.
posted by cenoxo at 9:17 PM on February 6, 2022


Bills being debated in the Tennessee General Assembly right now include one that would purge books considered “obscene or harmful to minors” from school libraries across the state. Another would ban teaching materials that “promote, normalize, support or address lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender (LGBT) issues or lifestyles.”
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:32 AM on February 7, 2022


Oof, Sciatrix, great job tying TERFs into fascism. That was a latent connection in my mind that I'm surprised I hadn't recognized explicitly before
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 1:56 PM on February 7, 2022


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