Ukraine war month six, the quiet before the storm?

August 21, 2022 11:08 PM

As we come up on Ukraine's independence day on the 24th, we have seen very little movement in the actual front lines during the last month, but several other developments. Ukraine has been able to target a number of installations deep behind Russian lines, both in Crimea and Russia proper. Responsibility for the assassination of Daria Dugina has been claimed by a previously unknown anti-Putin group inside Russia called NRA.

German intelligence tells the West to expect an uptick in Russian propaganda operations in the coming months.

In July, the major European powers did not pledge any additional military support for Ukraine, but there are several incoming military aid packages for August, including a big one from the US and a crowdfunded radar satellite.

Ukraine is trying to evacuate civilians away from the front line, a major undertaking.

Support Ukraine Now has an overview of ways to support Ukraine and Ukrainians.

posted by Harald74 (98 comments total)

Reuters have a brief summary of the war so far.
posted by Harald74 at 11:45 PM on August 21, 2022 [1 favorite]

Responsibility for the assassination of Daria Dugina has been claimed by a previously unknown anti-Putin group inside Russia called NRA.



Cold dead hands and all that...
posted by chavenet at 12:05 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Mark Galeotti on the assassination: What the Dugin assassination tells us about Russia (The Spectator).
posted by Harald74 at 12:22 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

My girlfriend is in Russia right now, suffering from the sanctions. Meanwhile most of the oligarchs continue to go unsanctioned and the propaganda has been cranked up to 11. Previously moderate politicians are calling for Ukrainian blood. If you're against the war, you shut up. If you're for the war, you're on TV. Russian celebrities wear their Z's and people notice. Life has changed little for the corrupt rich but dramatically for the average person. Putin seems to be gambling that the coalition against him is fragile, and I worry that he's right. We're only a couple of elections away from getting the pro-Kremlin group back in power in the US, and Putin's hold on Russia has never been stronger. The masses aren't going to stop him. I don't know, I have a lot of thoughts and worries about the war right now.
posted by lock robster at 12:28 AM on August 22, 2022 [30 favorites]

Defeat in Ukraine will eventually unwind the Putin regime, I am cautiously optimistic.
posted by Meatbomb at 12:49 AM on August 22, 2022 [4 favorites]

When you see oligarchs partying in spite of the sanctions, that doesn't mean the sanctions aren't working. The primary purpose of the sanctions is to deny Russia critical products like electronics that can be used to make things like missiles and drones. You won't see it on Instagram, but Russian industrial production is totally fucked right now. The sanctions are working.

It has been pretty funny seizing all their boats, though.
posted by ryanrs at 12:55 AM on August 22, 2022 [31 favorites]

Dmitry Pumpyansky's superyacht Axioma is going up for auction tomorrow after he defaulted on a loan.

A bargain, certainly.
posted by Harald74 at 1:11 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Regarding sancions, I haven't seen this essay posted yet: Of Sanctions and Strategic Bombers. Very interesting with a lot of sources cited about this analogy I haven't thought about.

Today the closest analogue to the logic of the strategic bomber lies in the world of economics. I speak of sanctions. The parallels are plentiful. Neither trade embargos nor financial sanctions targeting entire banking systems are precision instruments. Just as the bombers of World War II did not have the means to distinguish civilian targets from military ones, so too do attacks on a foreign economy fall hardest on vulnerable civilians. We imagine that the pain these civilians experience will translate into political change—either a change in regime, or a change in regime behavior. But as was the case with strategic bombing, the mechanism by which civilian suffering leads to change is not made clear.

Our campaign against the Russian economy even follows the traditional arc of the strategic bombing campaign: early hopes that the shock of sudden economic assault might upturn the Russian regime or war effort have faded. Now we tweet about the need to “pressure” Putin with maximum economic pain. The sanctions we impose will eventually have a material effect on the front—but only in the attritional and indirect fashion that firebombing Japanese cities degraded Japanese fighting capacity over time.

posted by kmt at 2:47 AM on August 22, 2022 [6 favorites]

In depth Daria and Alexander Dugina.
Podcast
posted by adamvasco at 3:10 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Interesting and quite comprehensive.

Gary Lachman's Dark Star Rising: Magick and Power in the Age of Trump claims that the young Dugin was a follower of Chaos Magick (the movement pioneered in the 1970s by the likes of Michael Moorcock and various British neo-Crowleyan proto-punks), which methodologically suits the weaponised absurdism of Putin-era Russian governance.
posted by acb at 3:42 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Thank you Harald74 for posting this. It seems like it's been a while since the last update on this war, and while I try to dig up news when and where I can, this community has been aces at bringing some of the best info into one spot.

Kudos to you, and kudos to the community.
posted by rocketman at 4:49 AM on August 22, 2022 [18 favorites]

The civilian infrastructure in Russian occupied territory remains terrible, and the Russians are more focused on propaganda than things like power and water.

Ironic the very attitude of "help yourself to what's not yours" that has reduced so many physically based systems in Russia to a skeletal condition - has caused the field of propaganda (where that approach is encouraged) to thrive. It will be the last department running.
posted by rongorongo at 5:47 AM on August 22, 2022

Tass is now reporting that FSB claims an Ukrainian agent did the killing. Ukraine denies any involvement.
posted by blob at 5:48 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

The point of such a statement is not to explain anything that happened, but to justify whatever action the one making the statement is planning.
posted by acb at 6:11 AM on August 22, 2022 [17 favorites]

I see the point but I think comparing the sanctions against Russia to the firebombings of WWII is absurd and lends itself to Russian propaganda. The US bombing campaign in Japan killed over 300,000 people! To equate it to sanctions targeting the energy, finance, and military industrial complex is to minimize its horror in favor of a facile analogy.
posted by Wretch729 at 6:24 AM on August 22, 2022 [17 favorites]

The point of such a statement is not to explain anything that happened, but to justify whatever action the one making the statement is planning.

This. I don't know if the truth of the killing will ever fully emerge, but my (admittedly entirely uninformed) guess is something more along the lines of an intra-Russian political killing and/or organized crime. As others have pointed out (including in the Spectator article linked just above) there are far more obvious targets for the Ukrainians, assuming that they were actually doing targeted assassinations.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:24 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Still, the Russians are hardly let this go to waste as a pretext for any further escalation or atrocity they might have been planning. Now they can rationalise it.
posted by acb at 6:28 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

As part of general coverage on the war, WaPo is publishing diary excerpts from a Russian soldier who defected. [gift link]
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 6:36 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Time Magazine: Inside Ukraine’s Secret Effort to Train Pilots for U.S. Jets.

TLDR: They're training UA pilots on A-10 Warthogs. Very effective air weapons.
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:48 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Reuters: "Blasts at the Saky air base in the annexed Crimean peninsula earlier this month have put more than half of the Russian Black Sea fleet's naval aviation combat jets out of use, a Western official said on Friday."
posted by JoeZydeco at 6:50 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

TLDR: They're training UA pilots on A-10 Warthogs. Very effective air weapons.

...am very much not an expert, but don't these rely on already having air superiority, if not air-supremacy? I mean these are slow, decades-old planes. AFAIK Ukraine's airspace is contested almost everywhere.

Destroying Russian armour doesn't seem too challenging for UKR forces - the range is the issue. Maybe A-10s escorted by a lot of MiGs might work (or at least run Russia out of the fancy AA missiles), but more very-long range rocket artillery would seem more helpful. This seems like the US wanting to offload its old stock that the air-force never liked anyway. (and A-10s PLUS more HIMARS is likely better than just more HIMARS).
posted by pompomtom at 7:28 AM on August 22, 2022

...am very much not an expert, but don't these rely on already having air superiority, if not air-supremacy?

That's what I was kind of pointing at in the Reuters link. UA is slowly knocking down Russian aircraft inventory. There might be a tipping point where they can achieve air superiority over Crimea.
posted by JoeZydeco at 7:32 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

TLDR: They're training UA pilots on A-10 Warthogs. Very effective air weapons.

It’s still an open question on how effective these will be. They usually work in environments with near complete air superiority and if it’s questionable are supported by fighters running the air superiority role. On the other side, Ukraine is flying Su-25s on basically the same type of mission even without air superiority so who knows.

The Air Force is looking for some politically palatable way to get rid of all of them once and for all and sending them to Ukraine might be it. The problem is if they do a super great job the whole thing might backfire.
posted by jmauro at 7:50 AM on August 22, 2022 [4 favorites]

Tass is now reporting that FSB claims an Ukrainian agent did the killing. Ukraine denies any involvement.

I would be shocked if they said anything else to be honest. The fact they aren’t using it as a call to general mobilization but to amp up internal suppression leads me to believe that even they don’t believe that line.
posted by jmauro at 7:51 AM on August 22, 2022 [2 favorites]

I don't think Russian propaganda would be interested in a complicated analogy focusing on the abstract mechanics of warfighting and logistics written in the lingo of the IR and strategy community. 4100 words of light academic prose can serve other purposes than playing into Russia's hand.

I did not read the essay as equating sanctions to the firebombing - that would be absurd. The article makes the point that strategic bombing failed its original, stated promises and then discusses the similarities and differences to today's sanctions. That's all - I don't see where Russian propaganda comes into the picture.
posted by kmt at 7:57 AM on August 22, 2022 [6 favorites]

There might be a tipping point where they can achieve air superiority over Crimea.

It's still unlikely — Ukraine is slowly working on SAM launchers like the S-300 and S-400 but by all accounts there are a lot of man portable air defense systems (MANPADS) on both sides of the conflict. And MANPADS are designed to counter relatively slow, low-flying aircraft which pretty much describes the A-10 when it's doing its job.

An A-10 can't shrug off a hit from a missile — it might have a better chance of getting the pilot home but, even with a USAF maintenance depot, the airframe is going to be out of commission for awhile if not completely trashed.
posted by nathan_teske at 8:44 AM on August 22, 2022

One would think they're not going to be used much for the gun attacks the A-10 fans live for, but rather as a bomb truck; it's a NATO-compliant airframe that can mount current standoff weapons, like JDAMs, and talk to other NATO platforms.

UA just announced last week they managed to get the HARM anti-radiation missile to interface with their MiGs, after extensive tinkering (and you have to wonder how far that integration goes, or if it's only fired in a blind home-on-jam mode) -- if F-16s or F-18s are considered too risky to transfer, here's an end of life airframe that's relatively easy to fly and maintain, can tolerate much rougher conditions than the fragile F-16 and even the navalized F-18, and has all the system integration they're missing.

They're already taking huge risks every time they take off in a MiG-29 or SU-25, it's a very different calculus than any US or NATO air operation in recent memory.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:52 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

My understanding is that the update on the A-10 is pretty dissimilar to the older one in that it is MUCH more expensive and has all the electronics that the old one was missing, including current-gen electronic counter measures. It's still a reasonably inexpensive way to put HARMs and precision munitions in the air, completely ignoring the old approach of circling around and making gun-based ground attacks.

I don't know that it solves a problem, through. One of the rationales for not giving Ukraine NATO airframes was that they didn't run out of aircraft, they were unable to operate them due to the high-level SAM coverage and lack of enough pilots. Putting the most scarce and difficult to create component (trained pilots) in a higher-risk aircraft seems like a bad plan compared to adapting NATO weapons for the soviet airframes.

If the US wanted to escalate assistance, the next logical move is long-range rockets to hit airbases and supply depots way outside of HIMARS range or too armored for HIMARS. NATO is going to run out of replacement soviet tanks and armored vehicle parts; getting Ukrainian units on alternative platforms (even if we don't want to make it the M1) is more pressing. I think that DoD is not-too-subtly sending weapons that are enough to engineer a stalemate but not enough to allow a counter-offensive.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 8:58 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

And MANPADS are designed to counter relatively slow, low-flying aircraft which pretty much describes the A-10 when it's doing its job.

They're already taking huge risks every time they take off in a MiG-29 or SU-25, it's a very different calculus than any US or NATO air operation in recent memory.

This. The Russian MANPADS (9K333) have an effective range of 6.5km. Su-25s using S-24s have an effective range of about 2-3km. So what's happening is the UAF pilots are going right to the front line, firing the rockets, dropping their ECMs, and then pulling up and out. It's a very dangerous maneuver to pull off.

An A-10 could sit 7km behind the front lines and send out a Maverick with an effective range of 22km allowing it to possibly reach artillery positions 15km behind the front line. Not to mention Sidewinders are excellent things for taking out cruise missiles that are terrorizing the populace.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:08 AM on August 22, 2022 [8 favorites]

adapting NATO weapons for the soviet airframes

UA (and the remainder of NATO) doesn't really have enough of them left to justify that kind of crash program from a bean-counting perspective vs. one-off field expedients (as with the HARM, which is itself kinda old); it would require retrofitting the aircraft with current, compatible avionics and control systems and etc; effectively creating a new, modernized type rather than somehow getting digital weapons from the last decade to work with Soviet technology from the 80s (at best).

Plus it's harder to sell everyone Joint Strike Fighters if it's suddenly demonstrated that it's feasible to strap all the new toys on dilapidated, non-NATO planes.
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:18 AM on August 22, 2022

So, about that thorough, quick and utterly believable FSB investigation :

When entering Russia, the vehicle carried a license plate of the Donetsk People's Republic - E982XH DPR, in Moscow - a license plate of Kazakhstan 172AJD02, and when leaving - a Ukrainian license plate AH7771IP.

Nothing says “with a gun to our heads, they told us at the beginning of the investigation what the outcome of the investigation must be” like reporting that the guilty party took an action to put an incriminating license plate on their car, when they had a better option already on it.

I would have expected a less obvious fraud from the FSB. Perhaps this means enough of the senior leadership have left, tires of Putin’s hands in their pies, so the dirty work is now left to the most simpleminded mouth-breathing yes men?

Or Putin’s getting desperate and working to a schedule.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 9:27 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

I would have expected a less obvious fraud from the FSB.

This FSB? After the Sims Affair?
posted by snuffleupagus at 9:32 AM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Bookmark this thread if you are interested in the Ukraine war. It stays active long after it fades from the front page.

How to Pronounce Ukrainian Cities Correctly.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:39 AM on August 22, 2022 [7 favorites]

Or Putin’s getting desperate and working to a schedule.

One of the things that was interesting was that they specifically accused the perpetrator of escaping to Estonia. I personally wonder if Putin is stupid enough to present a pretextual ultimatum to Estonia.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:40 AM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Tass is now reporting that FSB claims an Ukrainian agent did the killing. Ukraine denies any involvement.


If Ukraine had the ability to conduct an assassination in Moscow, they would not waste it on the political theorists.

But... if Russia is going to accuse Ukraine, then they will make people in Moscow think that Ukraine does have that capability. Worse than a crime, this is a blunder.
posted by ocschwar at 11:31 AM on August 22, 2022 [5 favorites]

I'm sure they should be busy with other things, but the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's trolling is sometimes what gets me through the day.

"Kerch bridge… we are watching you!"
posted by Kabanos at 12:15 PM on August 22, 2022 [10 favorites]

If Ukraine had the ability to conduct an assassination in Moscow, they would not waste it on the political theorists.

They might just be picking off who they can get.
posted by atchafalaya at 1:10 PM on August 22, 2022

Meduza has published a lot of articles worth reading, including stories on the "private" military group the Wagner Group. such as how the Wagner Group is trying to recruit inside prisons in Russia, how a smiley social media post by a journalist on the Wagner Group led to the destruction of its Luhansk headquarters.
posted by spamandkimchi at 2:05 PM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Antonovsky bridge in Kherson across the Dnieper River after the Ukrainian attack. About 10 (Russian) trucks loaded with ammunition were driving across the bridge. It's probably the detonation of one of them. Locals write about the collapse of the bridge span. UK Express followup article
posted by JoeZydeco at 2:07 PM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

The (independent) Moscow Times often has photo roundups. This is titled Ukrainian children live and play amid war.
posted by spamandkimchi at 2:14 PM on August 22, 2022 [1 favorite]

Just as the bombers of World War II did not have the means to distinguish civilian targets from military ones

Pedantic note: while literally true (bombers are not sentient) it's grossly misleading. The USA's best bombers of WWII had a stated accuracy of 23m

As I understand it, many of USA's WWII bombers were intentionaly targeted at civilian populations, and they hit them as intended.
posted by soylent00FF00 at 4:37 PM on August 22, 2022 [3 favorites]

Dmitry Pumpyansky's superyacht Axioma is going up for auction tomorrow after he defaulted on a loan.

At the moment, I'm not in the market for a superyacht. Also, I am very very very very very not in the market for a oligarch mobster's repossessed superyacht.
posted by Flunkie at 5:16 PM on August 22, 2022 [2 favorites]

in the first month of the war, I made a statement that the quickest way to end this war would be for the Russian people to strike. I gave an outlandish timeline of 3 months, let's see how that's working.

The EFJ condemns the arrest of Russian journalist Marina Ovsiannikova

I alluded, then kept to myself that Putin's a and b game is attrition, protracted war. The recent nuclear plant mind puzzle is just a repeat of the intial invasion and Chernobyl.
of course access to electricity is what it's really about. I picked a couple of Ukrainian industrial companies, kept my eye on them one was Sich Motors my early position was that Russia would like to take Zaporizhzhia Oblast intact.

Russia destroys Motor Sich engine plant in Zaporizhzhia

Worse than a crime, this is a blunder.

Могу ли я украсть это?
ocschwar' is the most logical. But could be anyone, a symbolic target and the car switch suggests a timed/structure device and who was in charge of protecting the cars.
posted by clavdivs at 7:59 PM on August 22, 2022 [2 favorites]

The USA's best bombers of WWII had a stated accuracy of 23m

That's what the second paragraph of your link says, as measured during pre-war testing.

Unfortunately, the fourth paragraph says, in part, "Under combat conditions the Norden did not achieve its expected precision, yielding an average CEP in 1943 of 1,200 feet (370 m), similar to other Allied and German results. Both the Navy and Air Forces had to give up using pinpoint attacks."
posted by Flunkie at 8:17 PM on August 22, 2022 [8 favorites]

What does "ocschwar" mean? Google (proper) just seems to reveal that there are a few people using it as a username on various sites, and Google Translate tells me that it means "and black" in Swedish.
posted by Flunkie at 8:22 PM on August 22, 2022

it is Jim dandy to think of the historical context of World War II bombers and the war of Ukraine because I can't really think of one.

it's grossly misleading. The USA's best bombers of WWII had a stated accuracy of 23m

Yup and correct.
As I understand it, many of USA's WWII bombers were intentionaly targeted at civilian populations, and they hit them as intended.

oh you're right and wrong. start with right, the fire bombing of Dresden, etc fire bombing in the Japanese theater, the initial 29 raid was purely a symbolic strike, i.e. terror, history shows terror begets terror. but targeting civilians was not in 90% of traditional B-17 raids. I've talked to a lot of army Air Force and my uncle was shot down on his 4th mission and on his third mission, the bombardier did say he got a cow as there was a school 500+ yards away and they were right on target. They didn't have the ships or the ordinance to purely hit civilian targets that's just logistical. Also there's the press back home and conscience. In 1944 those who flew in B-17 bombers had the highest or near highest casualty rate in the US armed Forces. ironically, the Nazis did try to recruit allied p.o.ws, except the Russians of course and it never worked. so, it's never wise to recruit large amounts of prisoners.
posted by clavdivs at 8:24 PM on August 22, 2022 [2 favorites]

I always heard that the Norden sucked, there were plenty of failed daytime hi altitude runs, and LeMay made the call to firebomb the cities. Turns out the B29 was an excellent firebomber at night, at low altitudes. Many more planes came back from those missions. It was hell on earth, but we had to end the war.

And the atom bomb was bad, but we had to stop the firebombing somehow.
posted by eustatic at 8:31 PM on August 22, 2022

well no, incindeary attacks were made after the first atomic Bomb and a few after the second but those stopped because, hey, we might send the wrong message. Facts are important.
posted by clavdivs at 9:39 PM on August 22, 2022

Anyway, I meant to come I to the thread to ask what people thought about the attacks on Crimea.

Unlike Grozny or Mariupol, Crimea seems to occupy enough of the Moscow imagination that strikes there would seem to be relatively undeniable proof to many Russians that the special operation is going badly- too many vacationers with cel phones.

I would think that Crimea may be immune to Russia's "Shell the place into the ground" strategy, but wondered what people thought.
posted by eustatic at 9:44 PM on August 22, 2022 [2 favorites]

What does "ocschwar" mean? Google (proper) just seems to reveal that there are a few people using it as a username on various sites, and Google Translate tells me that it means "and black" in Swedish.

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, lol, never mind

I was continuing to wonder about this, and just a moment ago it occurred to me that it felt like there might even be a Mefite with this username. Lo and behold, I now see that not only is that true, but also that they posted on this very thread.

So, ocschwar, just in case you're wondering why I suddenly publicly asked about the meaning of your username out of the blue: I didn't. I was asking about clavdivs's comment:

Могу ли я украсть это?
ocschwar' is the most logical.

... for which I had to look up "Могу ли я украсть это?" on Google Translate, and for which it then didn't even occur to me that "ocschwar" was not something that I also needed to look up there.
posted by Flunkie at 9:50 PM on August 22, 2022 [10 favorites]

Crimea is absolutely iconic as a resort destination in Russian culture, the equivalent I guess of Malibu or Majorca as a name you can drop to conjure the image of idyllic beaches and warm seas. It was also heavily colonised by Russians before and after the deportations of the Crimean Tatars got mostly rid of the pesky native population. It's somewhere they want to actually use, plus a main naval base and the first part of Ukraine occupied in 2014, so bombing it by Russians would be much more of an internal PR disaster.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:52 AM on August 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

I would have expected a less obvious fraud from the FSB. Perhaps this means enough of the senior leadership have left, tires of Putin’s hands in their pies, so the dirty work is now left to the most simpleminded mouth-breathing yes men?

The obviousness of the fraud is part of the message and purpose. Kind of like the Big Lie it tells the populous about the leader's power and forces others to actively engage one way or the other
with the lie. Those who go along demonstrate they are either sufficiently cowed or loyal. Those who do not out themselves as threats to the declared order. These messages are not meant for the world or to inform anyone of any facts. They are internal politics.
posted by srboisvert at 2:54 AM on August 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

Kind of like the Big Lie it tells the populous about the leader's power and forces others to actively engage one way or the other
with the lie.

What is this technique called?
posted by From Bklyn at 3:07 AM on August 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

There is apparently political capital to be made off Dugina's death.
posted by Harald74 at 5:14 AM on August 23, 2022

This short video of incoming shelling with incendiary munitions is deeply unsettling to me. It's from Marinka a few days ago.

(The video does not show any injury or death, just the lights descending on the city.)
posted by Harald74 at 6:52 AM on August 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

There is apparently political capital to be made off Dugina's death.

Prediction: she will be uncovered in a safe country enjoying a Starbucks (Stars Coffee no thanks) a few months/years from now.

The father omg'ing in the camera frame and now this bad theater performance: it's all so fake the death may as well be too.
posted by UN at 9:48 AM on August 23, 2022 [2 favorites]

Eh, I think the father, in his grief and anger, bitterly doubling down on the dogma that led to his daughter's death is a simpler explanation than a hoax or intentional ploy to exploit her death for political points.
posted by Reverend John at 10:19 AM on August 23, 2022 [7 favorites]

For sure! But, to be fair, all of it is speculation pure.
posted by UN at 11:41 AM on August 23, 2022 [1 favorite]

There's apparently a "Second Crimea Platform Summit" going on (or perhaps having just concluded) in Kyiv, with various world leaders participating (mostly by video). A few quotes (from here, here, and here):

• Zelenskiy said on Tuesday that Ukraine would recapture its annexed peninsula of Crimea from Russia by any means it deemed right
• "The return of Crimea to Ukraine, of which it is an inseparable part, is essentially a requirement of international law," Erdogan said
• Duda said the West's muted reaction to the annexation constituted "appeasement" of Russia, adding there could be no more "business as usual" in the West's relations with Moscow.
• The 2014 annexation of Crimea led to a "clear deterioration of the humanitarian situation and of human rights in the peninsula," said French President Emmanuel Macron, who vowed EU support to Ukraine "for the long term".
• Moscow has been using Crimea as a staging post for attacks on Ukraine as well as "a testing ground for the brutal methods Russia is now applying across the other occupied parts of Ukraine," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the conference.
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of "planning more annexations and more sham referendums", saying it has never been more important to stand together".

posted by Flunkie at 2:25 PM on August 23, 2022 [11 favorites]

Eh, I think the father, in his grief and anger, bitterly doubling down on the dogma that led to his daughter's death is a simpler explanation than a hoax or intentional ploy to exploit her death for political points.

A sentiment I’ve heard expressed as being popular in Russia (particularly among the older generations) is:

It is more important for the world to fear Russia than it is for there to be something to eat in Russian pots

Russia has a sense of itself as having a great destiny on the world stage, a rightful place as a world power, dictating things within it’s “sphere of influence” without being subject to international rules, norms, or opinions.

Nikolai Gogol expressed this sentiment in his novel Dead Souls, wherein he compares Russia to a speeding troika (3-horse sled), flying at top speed, hooves thundering like some divine power, other nations stepping aside in the wake of its charge.

“Rus, where are you rushing to? Give an answer! No answer.”

Russia has a great destiny. What that destiny is, no one can quite articulate. But neither are they willing to doubt it.

Dugin seems to be a true believer in Russia’s great destiny. And now his daughter is a martyr to the greatness of Russia as a “civilization” in its existential struggle against the West and Western liberalism.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:52 PM on August 23, 2022 [9 favorites]

Ruth Deyermond, Senior Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King's College London. Russian foreign & security policy, US-Russia relations, European security, trying to sum up the last six months of warfare.
posted by Harald74 at 3:22 AM on August 24, 2022 [5 favorites]

Harald74 even for someone like me who has been following all along that thread was helpful, thanks.
posted by Wretch729 at 5:55 AM on August 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Ruth Deyermond, Senior Lecturer, Department of War Studies, King's College London. Russian foreign & security policy, US-Russia relations, European security, trying to sum up the last six months of warfare.

It really highlights the problem with being an autocrat. You have to keep your military weak and stupid so they don't realize one day they have all the power and hate you. But then you need your military to do something useful and all that keeping it weak and stupid comes back to bite you in the ass.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:07 AM on August 24, 2022 [9 favorites]

Compelling account from the Washington Post (open gift link) on the first days of the Russian invasion.

"Inside the government complex in central Kyiv, the head of Zelensky’s administration, Andriy Yermak, looked down at his ringing cellphone. It was the Kremlin.

The former entertainment lawyer, a permanent fixture at Zelensky’s side, at first couldn’t bring himself to pick up, he said. The phone rang once, then again. He answered. He heard the gravelly voice of Dmitry Kozak, the Kremlin deputy chief of staff, who was born in Ukraine but had long ago entered Putin’s inner circle. Kozak said it was time for the Ukrainians to surrender.

Yermak swore at Kozak and hung up."
posted by Rumple at 11:43 AM on August 24, 2022 [8 favorites]

Russian Bureaucrat Go Fuck Yourself?
posted by Mitheral at 1:29 PM on August 24, 2022 [14 favorites]

This act meets a definition of genocide.

Yup. And more follow.

Russian missile strike on train station kills at least 15 people, dozens more injured:

Later in the evening, Zelensky said that 22 people were killed by Russia's attacks on the village of Chaplyne on Aug. 24. He did not specify the number of those killed in the strike on the train station.

Earlier on Aug. 24, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko reported that another Russian missile attack on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast’s Synelnykivskyi district near Dnipro city killed an 11-year-old boy. A woman and a 13-year-old boy were also found under the rubble of the destroyed home but they had survived the attack.

Zelensky had warned that Moscow might attempt "something particularly cruel" this week as Ukraine celebrates its 31st Independence Day on Aug. 24.Local authorities across the country took additional safety measures this week, such as imposing a whole-day curfew, amid the heightened risks of Russian attacks. Kyiv authorities banned mass gatherings in the capital through Aug. 25.

Air raid sirens blared across most of Ukraine as Russian missiles pummeled areas across the country on a symbolic day. Ukrainian air defense systems were on high alert all day, shooting down incoming missiles over several regions including Cherkasy Oblast where it is usually very quiet.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 4:51 PM on August 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

It really highlights the problem with being an autocrat. You have to keep your military weak and stupid so they don't realize one day they have all the power and hate you. But then you need your military to do something useful and all that keeping it weak and stupid comes back to bite you in the ass.

That's probably true, but there's a fix for that, and that is raising several powerful military forces, but keeping them separate from and antagonistic towards one another. Like the Wehrmacht and the Waffen-SS in the Third Reich. Anyway, that was my first thought upon learning of the formation of the Rosgvardiya.

But it seems like the Russians did not have much luck with that approach either...
posted by Harald74 at 11:25 PM on August 24, 2022 [2 favorites]

Both Boris Johnson and Andrzej Duda were in Kyiv for the third time yesterday. Personally I don't agree with them politically, but I approve of this gesture. They are no more immune to Russian missiles than anyone else in the city.
posted by Harald74 at 12:53 AM on August 25, 2022 [7 favorites]

Putin signed a decree to increase the Russian armed forces by 137,000 men.

How he intends to do that is beyond me. Another draft?

This is also an interesting way to get around not calling for general mobilization.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:34 AM on August 25, 2022 [4 favorites]

Economic historian Adam Tooze summarises the first 6 months of the war: Chartbook #146 The Russia-Ukraine War At Six Months: symbolic anniversary or economic and military turning point?

In a country at war, the implication that the central bank has other priorities than national defense, is dramatic indeed. An independent central bank is ill suited to the needs of total war...

The only way to relieve this conflict is to look for more support from outside. So far, Ukraine has received external support to the amount of c. $2.5bn-$3bn a month. For the second half of 2022 it is expecting $18bn all told. But it needs more. It needs $4bn-$5bn per month immediately.

A lot has been pledge. But frustratingly little has so far been disbursed. Most flagrant of all is the EU, which has pledged €9 billion but delivered only €1 billion on account of internal disputes about the modality of funding.

posted by kmt at 5:51 AM on August 25, 2022 [8 favorites]

I've read a lot of history books about WWI, but none had a more novel viewpoint than Adam Tooze's The Deluge.
Thanks for that link.
posted by Bee'sWing at 8:34 AM on August 25, 2022

This is also an interesting way to get around not calling for general mobilization.

I'm not seeing much English language commentary, but my guess is it will turn out to be exactly that -- perhaps changing the rules about activating 'reservists' to avoid having to admit to what would traditionally be 'mobilization' so long as it's done in slow motion, and then being selective about where they're called from (i.e. not Moscow or St. Petersburg) and who is called (avoiding anyone influential, grabbing dissidents as fodder).
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:26 PM on August 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

That Tooze article is sobering. We need to step up our support for Ukraine significantly, both in military and economic terms.
posted by Reverend John at 1:51 PM on August 25, 2022 [8 favorites]

Ironically, the worse the Russian economy gets, the more people Russia can get to sign up to be a contract soldier.
posted by meowzilla at 10:03 PM on August 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

Do they have officers enough to train and lead all those 137k new recruits?
posted by Harald74 at 10:54 PM on August 25, 2022 [1 favorite]

Human Rights Watch just announced they will have a report out on the Russian war crimes of forcible deportation of Ukrainians to Russia on September 1st. My guess is that it won't paint a pretty picture.
posted by Harald74 at 10:56 PM on August 25, 2022 [2 favorites]

Ironically, the worse the Russian economy gets, the more people Russia can get to sign up to be a contract soldier.

Same as everywhere, yesterday US Representative Jim Banks tweeted: Student loan forgiveness undermines one of our military’s greatest recruitment tools at a time of dangerously low enlistments.
posted by Harald74 at 11:33 PM on August 25, 2022 [14 favorites]

The Kyiv Post interviewed Ilya Ponomarev about the NRA. Gaslit Nation also has an informed take about the car-bombing (episode here).
posted by progosk at 12:25 PM on August 26, 2022 [1 favorite]

NYTimes: The U.S. State Department and Yale identify 21 detention sites in Russian-controlled territory.

The U.S. State Department and Yale University researchers said Thursday that they had identified at least 21 sites in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine that the Russian military or Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists are using to detain, interrogate or deport civilians and prisoners of war in ways that violate international humanitarian law. There were signs pointing to possible mass graves in some areas, they said.
posted by ryanrs at 4:20 PM on August 26, 2022 [5 favorites]

Concentration camps and mass graves? Sorry, wasn't Russia going to "denazify" Ukraine?
posted by Reverend John at 6:37 PM on August 26, 2022 [5 favorites]

Bellingcat's new piece: Socialite, Widow, Jeweller, Spy: How a GRU Agent Charmed Her Way Into NATO Circles in Italy. Other than the Aliexpress jewelry trivia, I learned a bit about how GRU tracks their agents' passports: Russia’s military intelligence agency had furnished their spies with consecutively numbered passports, allowing investigative journalists who had acquired data commonly leaked onto Russia’s black market to uncover other spies by simply tracing such batches of numbers.
posted by cendawanita at 8:43 PM on August 26, 2022 [6 favorites]

US Department of State: Russia’s War on Ukraine: Six Months of Lies, Implemented
posted by Kabanos at 9:09 PM on August 26, 2022 [3 favorites]

From Hromadske International: Interviews with Ukrainian soldiers on the Southern front (Kherson region), with English subtitles.
posted by Kabanos at 9:19 PM on August 26, 2022 [4 favorites]

One day, the GRU will figure out a way of obtaining nonconsecutive Russian passports for its assets, and the work of open-source intelligence analysts looking for Russian spies will become somewhat harder. That day hasn't come yet.

Also, I would be very surprised if pretty much every security service wasn't flagging Russian passports from known GRU-adjacent batches for further observation as they pass through immigration, effectively pre-burning them.
posted by acb at 5:22 AM on August 27, 2022

Ukrainian sociologist Volodymyr Ishchenko giving a long, detailed interview about the post-Soviet political and economical situation. If you read only one summary about the war, choose this one: Why Russia’s political capitalists went to war – and how the war could end their rule

The claim that Putin has unified the Ukrainian society and finally made Ukraine “Ukrainian” is actively exploited in order to repress and silence the very real diversity of political positions, opinions, and cultural practices in Ukraine. Those who have not joined the unity appear to be “anti-Ukrainian” however many of them are actually in Ukraine.

posted by kmt at 9:22 AM on August 27, 2022 [2 favorites]

Do they have officers enough to train and lead all those 137k new recruits?

According to the LPR stooge they don't even have enough for the front lines.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:37 PM on August 27, 2022

From Today's ISW summary:

Russian military leadership may be shifting to a new phase of mobilization in central Russia and have likely exhausted pools of potential recruits in more peripheral and disenfranchised regions.

!!!!

To be clear, "central Russia" here does not mean geographically central Russia. It's a specific term that's used to mean more like... well... "Russian Russia", i.e. Russia before it started expanding by conquering a whole bunch of other peoples in the early modern period. Sometimes even more specific than that.

Will be interesting to see what will happen if the war starts taking on a more immediate and obvious presence in the parts of Russia that Russia cares about.
posted by Flunkie at 8:53 PM on August 27, 2022 [6 favorites]

They'll probably start with going from anyone from the non-“Russian” parts of Russia to the undesirables from the “Russian” parts. Empty out the prisons, give all the robbers and rapists guns and send them to the front to die for the fatherland, solving two (well, one and a half) problems at once. Also, press-ganging any dissidents or troublemakers into cannon fodder.
posted by acb at 4:59 AM on August 28, 2022 [1 favorite]

The usually reliable Kyiv Post says that the counteroffensive is now underway, with the Ukrainan army breaking through the first Russian defensive lines near Kherson. We'll see how this develops. For now there's claims and counterclaims all over Twitter, including several parties trying to post old combat footage as new. The bigger news outlets haven't reported on this yet.
posted by Harald74 at 3:43 AM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]

Ilia Ponomarenko urges caution in putting too much in it.
posted by Harald74 at 3:45 AM on August 29, 2022

Igor Girkin is posting that the Ukrainians are now using HIMARS to strike the front lines in Kherson, not just high-value targets in the Russian rear. This is a new development and might also indicate a Ukrainian offensive.
posted by Harald74 at 4:06 AM on August 29, 2022

And here is some official sources (Stratcom Centre UA on Twitter):

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have breached the occupiers' first line of defence near Kherson. They believe that Ukraine has a real chance to get back its occupied territories, especially considering the very successful use of Western weapons by the Ukrainian army.
posted by Harald74 at 4:09 AM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

One of the problems with being an occupying force is that partisans are everywhere. I wouldn't doubt that UA partisans are wreaking havoc from behind Russian lines to cause chaos while this offensive is ongoing.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:20 AM on August 29, 2022

Yes, partisans have definitely stepped up attacks. Before it was car bombs, but lately some high-level collaborators have been executed in home invasions. One was hanged.

Once the Ukraine Army is in town, there will be organized sweeps for collaborators, so they had better flee now.
posted by ryanrs at 10:36 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]

They already gunned down Aleksei Kovalev who was a turncoat collaborator running Kherson under Russian occupation. He should have left when he was given a "polite warning" back in June.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:32 AM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]

Ukraine has long been setting conditions for a rout in Kherson. Russian command has already withdrawn to the far side of the river. If this battle goes well, it will be a turning point in the war.

But this is Ukraine's first big counter offensive, against very dug in Russian troops. If the Russians don't break, it will be a very bloody fight against an entrenched enemy.
posted by ryanrs at 11:48 AM on August 29, 2022

Looks like we’ve got a new thread to squat.
posted by Quasirandom at 11:49 AM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]

Yeah, I was thinking that my "quiet before the storm" title would soon be outdated.
posted by Harald74 at 12:16 PM on August 29, 2022