Ukraine war: Year one
February 21, 2023 4:41 AM Subscribe
We are coming up on the one-year anniversary of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. In the last days, Joe Biden has visited Kyiv, and Putin has just delivered his "State of the Union" speech.
There will likely be a great many summaries of the last year published in the coming days, here are some that are already out:
There is still tremendous suffering in the civilian population, and Support Ukraine Now has ways for you to help.
As always, if you would like to discuss nuclear escalation, this is not the thread for that, and you are free to make your own FPP.
There will likely be a great many summaries of the last year published in the coming days, here are some that are already out:
- 30 analysts from the Rand Corporation has given their perspectives on what stood out in the first year of the war, and what to watch for in the second.
- Gen. (ret) Mick Ryan: A Year of War, Part I
- Bloomberg.com: Worst Is Over in Russia’s War on Ukrainian Energy System, Operator Says
- Professor of strategic studies as St. Andrews Phillips O'Brian: The Two Visions: New Europe and Old Europe
- Gen (ret.) Mark Hertling: Why Ukraine will win the war
- The New York Times: ‘The World’s Largest Construction Site’: The Race Is On to Rebuild Ukraine
- War on the Rocks: Mercenary Shocks: What the War in Ukraine Will Eventually Mean for Africa
There is still tremendous suffering in the civilian population, and Support Ukraine Now has ways for you to help.
As always, if you would like to discuss nuclear escalation, this is not the thread for that, and you are free to make your own FPP.
Hmm, yeah, but I seem to have missed out on the sweet, sweet blob people advertising money. Where do I submit my claim?
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:27 AM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
Indica, you do this on every Ukraine thread, and it always gets deleted. Go make your own thread about how we - and all Ukrainians? - are stupid dupes, or stop being an ass in these threads.
You might *feel* like you're speaking truth to power here, or something, but it reads like you're celebrating the death of Ukrainians and Ukrainian culture. It is, to put it mildly, very gross.
posted by sagc at 5:36 AM on February 21, 2023 [47 favorites]
You might *feel* like you're speaking truth to power here, or something, but it reads like you're celebrating the death of Ukrainians and Ukrainian culture. It is, to put it mildly, very gross.
posted by sagc at 5:36 AM on February 21, 2023 [47 favorites]
Ukrainian-born journalist and former diplomat Dmitry Grozoubinski watched & livetweeted Putin's speech here.
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:37 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 5:37 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Perun (who runs an excellent YT channel (mainly dealing in the past year with the war in Ukraine) did a very interesting talk recently on Russia's Grand Strategy and Ukraine. TLDW: Russia has almost certainly already strategically lost the war, but it remains to be seen if Ukraine can win.
posted by bouvin at 5:53 AM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by bouvin at 5:53 AM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
A bunch of paid opinions from the blob creatures that lost every other war, killing millions, about how this war is different.
It isn't different, from the perspective of the invadee it's always justified to shoot at the people coming for you and your stuff. From Putin's perspective it's also justified, and he would come for YOUR stuff if he could.
Even while loosing he's trying to take another small country (Moldova) -- if there is no more Ukraine and Moldova is absorbed, will that be the end to war?
posted by sammyo at 6:36 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
It isn't different, from the perspective of the invadee it's always justified to shoot at the people coming for you and your stuff. From Putin's perspective it's also justified, and he would come for YOUR stuff if he could.
Even while loosing he's trying to take another small country (Moldova) -- if there is no more Ukraine and Moldova is absorbed, will that be the end to war?
posted by sammyo at 6:36 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
@indica Are you the person on Medium?
This is a word salad of dog whistle words.
"propaganda dump,"
"military industrial complex"
"western media"
"advertising rights".
"paid opinions"
"blob creatures that lost every other war, killing millions, about how this war is different."
1) the very same thing could be said about Putin's speech
2) You cannot pound the facts, so ... you pound the table
3) Aren't you tired?
posted by Didnt_do_enough at 6:43 AM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
This is a word salad of dog whistle words.
"propaganda dump,"
"military industrial complex"
"western media"
"advertising rights".
"paid opinions"
"blob creatures that lost every other war, killing millions, about how this war is different."
1) the very same thing could be said about Putin's speech
2) You cannot pound the facts, so ... you pound the table
3) Aren't you tired?
posted by Didnt_do_enough at 6:43 AM on February 21, 2023 [4 favorites]
let's hope a mod comes along and cleans up this garbage ere long
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:45 AM on February 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:45 AM on February 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Here's a Ukrainian voice on the anniversary, Illia Ponomarenko in the Kyiv Independent: One year later: How Russia came to fail in Ukraine, battle after battle
posted by Harald74 at 7:09 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:09 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
And Girkin is predictably not impressed by Putin's speech.
posted by Harald74 at 7:14 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 7:14 AM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Here's a statement from the Whitehouse regarding Biden's visit to Kyiv, and an article regarding his visit to Poland. I'm not the biggest Biden supporter, (there's so much that he could do that is not getting done. Concentration camps on the border? STILL?!) but I think that supporting the Ukraine is important. It makes me happy to see the people of Ukraine standing up to the bully in Moscow. If smaller countries can stand up against this kind of aggression, it's our duty to stand with them and give support. I'm glad that we're finally sending tanks, as is Germany. Take a listen to(or read the transcript of) his speech in Poland, he doesn't mince words, and states plainly that Putin has to go. Let's hope it happens soon.
posted by evilDoug at 7:17 AM on February 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by evilDoug at 7:17 AM on February 21, 2023 [3 favorites]
Russia continues to commit war crimes constantly. And crimes against humanity, both against Ukraine civilians and ethnic minorities that live in Russia. Russia is continuing to steal Ukraine children. In addition to their targeting of civilian infrastructure.
posted by Jacen at 8:03 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 8:03 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
Mod note: Couple of comments deleted. Please engage with the content presented and avoid derailments, thanks!
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 11:14 AM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 11:14 AM on February 21, 2023 [1 favorite]
I found Dark Brandon's visit to Kyiv unqualifiedly inspiring. Grateful that we have a president who understands and clearly articulates what's at stake.
Or, of course, one could side with human trash fires like this. She's like a female Charles Lindbergh for our time... except without any charisma or accomplishments.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:16 AM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
Or, of course, one could side with human trash fires like this. She's like a female Charles Lindbergh for our time... except without any charisma or accomplishments.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:16 AM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
The always wonderful Max Miller today covered The History of Ukrainian Borshch – I can recommend staying to the end for a tale of the importance of food in occupied Ukraine and how to obtain it against terrible odds.
posted by bouvin at 11:24 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by bouvin at 11:24 AM on February 21, 2023 [5 favorites]
I appreciate the materials collected in the post. I've also been following Perun on YT. Does anyone have any other sources they can recommend?
posted by LegallyBread at 3:16 PM on February 21, 2023
posted by LegallyBread at 3:16 PM on February 21, 2023
There is one strategic issue I wonder about, the Ukraine army has pushed back the russians to the middle of the Donbas. The next push would be moving towards Luhansk and the other cities that are likely pro-russian. They certainly do not want to devastate a Ukraine city but urban warfare could be untenable. It occurs to me that that may be one reason they are fighting where they are, to reduce the opponent before it gets more complicated that it is now.
Do they offer the pro-russian residents the option of evacuating to russia prior to shelling? Drop leaflets (in russian) that declare that anyone remaining in the city after a date are assumed to be combatants? (ya bad illegal idea).
posted by sammyo at 4:10 PM on February 21, 2023
Do they offer the pro-russian residents the option of evacuating to russia prior to shelling? Drop leaflets (in russian) that declare that anyone remaining in the city after a date are assumed to be combatants? (ya bad illegal idea).
posted by sammyo at 4:10 PM on February 21, 2023
The next push would be moving towards Luhansk and the other cities that are likely pro-russian.
If those cities are pro-Russian they'd only be nominally so because everyone who isn't a Rashist has been evacuated, staying silent, and/or killed. You don't exactly vote against gangsters literally coming door to door with automatic weapons asking for your opinion of them.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:18 PM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
If those cities are pro-Russian they'd only be nominally so because everyone who isn't a Rashist has been evacuated, staying silent, and/or killed. You don't exactly vote against gangsters literally coming door to door with automatic weapons asking for your opinion of them.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:18 PM on February 21, 2023 [6 favorites]
I have been following Operator Starsky on YouTube, in addition to Ukrainian government YouTube channels. You can follow NAFO on Twitter.
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 5:20 PM on February 21, 2023
posted by Katjusa Roquette at 5:20 PM on February 21, 2023
Does anyone have any other sources they can recommend?
posted by LegallyBread
On YouTube: Anders Puck Nielsen, Vlad Vexler, and Times Radio.
posted by Pouteria at 6:09 PM on February 21, 2023
posted by LegallyBread
On YouTube: Anders Puck Nielsen, Vlad Vexler, and Times Radio.
posted by Pouteria at 6:09 PM on February 21, 2023
Wagner mercenary army boss accuses Russian army of treason.
I don't know what that means exactly but surely things are not going as planned on Day 3 of this special operation.
posted by UN at 7:05 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
I don't know what that means exactly but surely things are not going as planned on Day 3 of this special operation.
posted by UN at 7:05 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, if their different armed factions bicker with each other that can only be good for Ukraine. Much like other authoritarian regimes: The German Wehrmacht had the Heer (Army) but there was also Waffen-SS, a separate army that answered directly to Himmler, and also Luftwaffe field divisions under Göring. Even the Kriegsmarine had six divisions of ground troops at the end of the war. All of them with their own bureaucracy, procurement and supply, chain of command etc.
In the same vein the Russians have their regular army under the MoD, and the Rosgvardia, which was raised from 2017 to answer directly Putin and is (was) around 340,000 strong. In addition there is the not-formally-legal mercenary army of the Wagner Group at around 50,000 troops, answering to their leaders Prigozhin ("Putin's cook") and Utkin; and 12,000 Kadyrovites, answering directly to Chechen strongman and Kreml puppet Ramzan Kadyrov though formally organised under the Rosgvardia. Probably other actors as well, and it's a mess and can't be good for Russian command and control on the battlefield.
posted by Harald74 at 11:25 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
In the same vein the Russians have their regular army under the MoD, and the Rosgvardia, which was raised from 2017 to answer directly Putin and is (was) around 340,000 strong. In addition there is the not-formally-legal mercenary army of the Wagner Group at around 50,000 troops, answering to their leaders Prigozhin ("Putin's cook") and Utkin; and 12,000 Kadyrovites, answering directly to Chechen strongman and Kreml puppet Ramzan Kadyrov though formally organised under the Rosgvardia. Probably other actors as well, and it's a mess and can't be good for Russian command and control on the battlefield.
posted by Harald74 at 11:25 PM on February 21, 2023 [2 favorites]
The History of Ukrainian Borshch yt – I can recommend staying to the end for a tale of the importance of food in occupied Ukraine and how to obtain it against terrible odds.
I'd mentioned this previously, but if this kind of cultural history is your thing, you might like to read a different-but-similar incidence of Russian vs. Ukranian foodstuff lore, regarding their mushrooms and wartime folktales.
posted by progosk at 12:49 AM on February 22, 2023
I'd mentioned this previously, but if this kind of cultural history is your thing, you might like to read a different-but-similar incidence of Russian vs. Ukranian foodstuff lore, regarding their mushrooms and wartime folktales.
posted by progosk at 12:49 AM on February 22, 2023
I'm not that impressed by Biden's visit. It's pretty safe in Kiev. So safe in fact that Boris Johnson, and now Rishi Sunak, has been travelling there practically monthly as they try to generate some positive press in the shitshow of UK "You Brexit, You fuxit" domestic politics.
I'll be 100% on board with Dark Brandon once he decides to stop edging the Ukrainian military and finally backs them to decisively win with full support - planes, long range missiles and more than just a symbolic supply of tanks. The slow gradual increase in support just draws out the war and cost hundreds of civilian lives, tens of thousands of soldiers lives (on both sides), billions of dollars in infrastructure damage, billions of dollars of military spending and unimaginable environmental damage. The invasion of Ukraine is a tragedy and slow rolling support compounds the tragedy.
posted by srboisvert at 3:55 AM on February 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
I'll be 100% on board with Dark Brandon once he decides to stop edging the Ukrainian military and finally backs them to decisively win with full support - planes, long range missiles and more than just a symbolic supply of tanks. The slow gradual increase in support just draws out the war and cost hundreds of civilian lives, tens of thousands of soldiers lives (on both sides), billions of dollars in infrastructure damage, billions of dollars of military spending and unimaginable environmental damage. The invasion of Ukraine is a tragedy and slow rolling support compounds the tragedy.
posted by srboisvert at 3:55 AM on February 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
-Sean Penn film 'Superpower' catches Zelenskiy at moment of Russian invasion
-Superpower review, Berlin Film Festival: Sean Penn's Zelensky documentary is heartfelt and inspiring
posted by kliuless at 5:55 AM on February 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
-Superpower review, Berlin Film Festival: Sean Penn's Zelensky documentary is heartfelt and inspiring
posted by kliuless at 5:55 AM on February 22, 2023 [2 favorites]
The slow gradual increase in support just draws out the war and cost hundreds of civilian lives, tens of thousands of soldiers lives (on both sides), billions of dollars in infrastructure damage, billions of dollars of military spending and unimaginable environmental damage.
It's arguable that this is the Western goal. Nobody can convince me that the coldblooded realpolitik freaks in the department of defense and the CIA really care about the lives of Ukrainians. They care about bogging down Russia in a war that will, they hope, destabilize the Putin regime, strengthen the resolve and unity of NATO, which was on the decline before the invasion, and continue the dominance of the north Atlantic states in the world order. The only good people in this conflict are the Ukrainians, everyone else sees it as a strategic opportunity for advancing their own self interest, incredible devastation and unimaginable tragedy be damned.
posted by dis_integration at 6:12 AM on February 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
It's arguable that this is the Western goal. Nobody can convince me that the coldblooded realpolitik freaks in the department of defense and the CIA really care about the lives of Ukrainians. They care about bogging down Russia in a war that will, they hope, destabilize the Putin regime, strengthen the resolve and unity of NATO, which was on the decline before the invasion, and continue the dominance of the north Atlantic states in the world order. The only good people in this conflict are the Ukrainians, everyone else sees it as a strategic opportunity for advancing their own self interest, incredible devastation and unimaginable tragedy be damned.
posted by dis_integration at 6:12 AM on February 22, 2023 [4 favorites]
new Gaslit Nation ep. Russia’s Total War on Ukraine: One Year Later, including an interview with Yana Prymachenko; includes a lot of historical background and topical analysis.
posted by progosk at 7:23 AM on February 22, 2023
posted by progosk at 7:23 AM on February 22, 2023
I find it hard to imagine anyone reading about the ongoing atrocities committed by the Russian army, and not feel sympathy for the Ukrainian people. Anyone with a heart would feel that. US soldiers an intelligence workers are not somehow magically immune from feeling sympathy.
posted by newdaddy at 1:31 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by newdaddy at 1:31 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
you tell 'em smarty! loved your blog btw
posted by some loser at 2:43 AM on February 23, 2023
posted by some loser at 2:43 AM on February 23, 2023
They care about bogging down Russia in a war that will, they hope, destabilize the Putin regime, strengthen the resolve and unity of NATO, which was on the decline before the invasion, and continue the dominance of the north Atlantic states in the world order.
Since when are any of those bad things, when the alternative is dominance by the dictatorships of Russia or China? I guess that makes me a "coldblooded realpolitik freak," too.
But then, Ukraine and the West has achieved those objectives by giving military aid to Ukraine, not withholding it. What's more, that coldblooded realpolitik is feasible only if Ukraine holds, and fails badly if Ukraine's military collapses and Russia's prevails.
So why it might be "arguable" in some kind of late-night college-dorm argument way that NATO is deliberately withholding aid from Ukraine out of "coldblooded realpolitik" freakiness, it's much more likely that shortfalls are the result of having to coordinate the bureaucracies of more than a dozen nation-states, each with their own perception of national interest, without the need for the West to be an actual villain.
posted by Gelatin at 4:45 AM on February 23, 2023 [10 favorites]
Since when are any of those bad things, when the alternative is dominance by the dictatorships of Russia or China? I guess that makes me a "coldblooded realpolitik freak," too.
But then, Ukraine and the West has achieved those objectives by giving military aid to Ukraine, not withholding it. What's more, that coldblooded realpolitik is feasible only if Ukraine holds, and fails badly if Ukraine's military collapses and Russia's prevails.
So why it might be "arguable" in some kind of late-night college-dorm argument way that NATO is deliberately withholding aid from Ukraine out of "coldblooded realpolitik" freakiness, it's much more likely that shortfalls are the result of having to coordinate the bureaucracies of more than a dozen nation-states, each with their own perception of national interest, without the need for the West to be an actual villain.
posted by Gelatin at 4:45 AM on February 23, 2023 [10 favorites]
Does the US and allies have the knowledge to predict just how much materiel to send to Ukraine in order to maintain a permanent stalemate?
posted by UN at 9:26 AM on February 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 9:26 AM on February 23, 2023 [1 favorite]
FT.com: How Putin blundered into Ukraine — then doubled down
Pretty good article, though dependent on anonymous sources.
posted by Harald74 at 9:34 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Pretty good article, though dependent on anonymous sources.
posted by Harald74 at 9:34 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Vladimir Putin’s Inhumane Blueprint to Terrorize Civilians in Chechnya, Syria—and Now Ukraine [Vanity Fair]
A year into the war, a veteran conflict reporter presents a withering assessment of the Russian leader’s strategy of systematic carnage in three decimated cities: Grozny, Aleppo, and Mariupol.
posted by Kabanos at 9:38 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
A year into the war, a veteran conflict reporter presents a withering assessment of the Russian leader’s strategy of systematic carnage in three decimated cities: Grozny, Aleppo, and Mariupol.
posted by Kabanos at 9:38 AM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Anybody else getting whiplashed by media bandwagoning? I feel like the press is swinging all over the place depending on the latest war PR press release. Seems almost like establishing the narrative is another front in the war and that there currently are a number of major offensives on that front in the last few days.
posted by srboisvert at 1:09 PM on February 23, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 1:09 PM on February 23, 2023
It looks like Russia is in talks with China to deliver 100 kamikaze drones.
Would this lead to sanctions against China? Interesting times, I guess.
posted by UN at 1:14 PM on February 23, 2023
Would this lead to sanctions against China? Interesting times, I guess.
posted by UN at 1:14 PM on February 23, 2023
Dr. Sasha Dovzhyk of the Ukrainian Institute London writes in New Lines Magazine:
Mother Tongue: The Story of a Ukrainian Language Convert
How one Ukrainian woman made the switch from her native Russian tongue to Ukrainian
"Russian is my mother tongue and liberation means ripping it out of my throat."
posted by Kabanos at 6:41 PM on February 23, 2023 [5 favorites]
Mother Tongue: The Story of a Ukrainian Language Convert
How one Ukrainian woman made the switch from her native Russian tongue to Ukrainian
"Russian is my mother tongue and liberation means ripping it out of my throat."
posted by Kabanos at 6:41 PM on February 23, 2023 [5 favorites]
UN, I'd say that the USA can make that prediction pretty accurately, within a reasonable margin. We probably know where Russia troops and equipment is better than Russia at this point. We know what vehicles and other weapons Ukraine requests. We've seen what passes for Russian tactics and how they have been degrading. Bottlenecking critical supplies shouldn't be too hard.... Limit the offensive power we give them. Don't give the systems that will provide a decisive edge. Supply enough long range ammunition that Russia can't really advance but won't be forced to withdraw much. I'm sure the armed forces are wargaming this out frequently.
Do I think this is actually happening? Urgh, proobblly not. Never assume conspiracies when bureaucracies is the likely answer, after all. But earlier shipments of things like tanks and infantry fighting vehicles or planes could have added quite a bit of momentum to the Ukraine breakthroughs and victories. Whatever the politics and reality slowing transfers is, it's definitely extended the war and cost more lives.
posted by Jacen at 7:09 PM on February 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Do I think this is actually happening? Urgh, proobblly not. Never assume conspiracies when bureaucracies is the likely answer, after all. But earlier shipments of things like tanks and infantry fighting vehicles or planes could have added quite a bit of momentum to the Ukraine breakthroughs and victories. Whatever the politics and reality slowing transfers is, it's definitely extended the war and cost more lives.
posted by Jacen at 7:09 PM on February 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Logistics aside, it is also good strategy not to telegraph when new capabilities can come online. Surprise and feed disinfo to the enemy.
Not announcing the delivery of a new set of capabilities until - firstly, Ukrainian personnel had already received training - they're on the ground (or have been for some time) has been the pattern thus far.
posted by porpoise at 8:08 PM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
Not announcing the delivery of a new set of capabilities until - firstly, Ukrainian personnel had already received training - they're on the ground (or have been for some time) has been the pattern thus far.
posted by porpoise at 8:08 PM on February 23, 2023 [2 favorites]
The 12 point Chinese plan for peace has been released.
On the first point ('Respecting the sovereignty of all countries') you can listen to a member of China's delegation to Munich, in a recent response to a reporter's question on the illegal breach of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty, respond only by talking about Taiwan.
So much for that peace plan.
posted by UN at 10:12 PM on February 23, 2023
On the first point ('Respecting the sovereignty of all countries') you can listen to a member of China's delegation to Munich, in a recent response to a reporter's question on the illegal breach of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty, respond only by talking about Taiwan.
So much for that peace plan.
posted by UN at 10:12 PM on February 23, 2023
9, 10, 11 of that plan are obviosly self serving.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:33 PM on February 23, 2023
posted by Meatbomb at 11:33 PM on February 23, 2023
Kabanos: thank you that Mother Tongue link is excellent.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:49 PM on February 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 11:49 PM on February 23, 2023 [3 favorites]
Respecting the sovereignty of all countries
China and Russia both place huge, sincere emphasis on respecting the sovereignty of countries! It's just that some countries are countries and some countries are actually wayward territories that rightfully belong to them.
That principle is meaningless and cynical without a definition of what a country is.
posted by trig at 12:54 AM on February 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
China and Russia both place huge, sincere emphasis on respecting the sovereignty of countries! It's just that some countries are countries and some countries are actually wayward territories that rightfully belong to them.
That principle is meaningless and cynical without a definition of what a country is.
posted by trig at 12:54 AM on February 24, 2023 [11 favorites]
It's actually raining again right now in Auckland, more flooding and evacuations
posted by mbo at 1:28 AM on February 24, 2023
posted by mbo at 1:28 AM on February 24, 2023
Protest in London
And another one in Berlin, across from the embassy as well.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:33 AM on February 24, 2023
And another one in Berlin, across from the embassy as well.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:33 AM on February 24, 2023
DIE ZEIT 365 Days of War in Ukraine. German language, but it’s a visual timeline with satellite images and maps.
posted by UN at 1:50 AM on February 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 1:50 AM on February 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
Stoneshop: And another one in Berlin
The backstory (German only) is something that Kafka could have written the outline for...
posted by Stoneshop at 2:27 AM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
The backstory (German only) is something that Kafka could have written the outline for...
posted by Stoneshop at 2:27 AM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
And in The Hague of all places, seat of the International Court of Justice, Russian embassy staff are submitted to cruel and unusual punishment: a barrel organ playing the Ukrainian anthem.
(A Stalin Organ might have been more fitting, but we have rules against that)
posted by Stoneshop at 4:54 AM on February 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
(A Stalin Organ might have been more fitting, but we have rules against that)
posted by Stoneshop at 4:54 AM on February 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
Just this week:
-Putin tries to convince Moldova that Ukraine is going to stage a fake Russian attack against themselves from the disputed territory of Transnistria ("disputed" in that Transnistrians say they're an independent, Russian-aligned state and everyone else says they're part of Moldova). He says it's a pretext for Ukraine to invade the area. No one believes this.
-Putin retracts decree acknowledging that Transnistria is part of Moldova
-Medvedev says Russia may soon have "to push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland"
-Viktor Orbán says sure, Hungary is in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but on the other hand, time may be needed to discuss, and you know, maybe Turkey has a point and now is not the time...
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:49 AM on February 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
-Putin tries to convince Moldova that Ukraine is going to stage a fake Russian attack against themselves from the disputed territory of Transnistria ("disputed" in that Transnistrians say they're an independent, Russian-aligned state and everyone else says they're part of Moldova). He says it's a pretext for Ukraine to invade the area. No one believes this.
-Putin retracts decree acknowledging that Transnistria is part of Moldova
-Medvedev says Russia may soon have "to push back the borders that threaten our country as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland"
-Viktor Orbán says sure, Hungary is in favor of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, but on the other hand, time may be needed to discuss, and you know, maybe Turkey has a point and now is not the time...
posted by DirtyOldTown at 7:49 AM on February 24, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's also a sudden wave of seemingly astroturfed stuff hitting our cousin's social media feeds in Hungary and Romania about how the Moldovans really want to be part of Russia, but "The West is afraid to report on that." Here's just one, but in Romanian (which is also Moldovan, basically) and Hungarian, there are many more.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:02 AM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:02 AM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
I found this interesting:
A first-ever oral history of how Washington insiders saw the warning signs of a European land war, their frantic attempts to stop it — and the moment Putin actually crossed the border. [Politico]
posted by Kabanos at 8:32 AM on February 24, 2023 [5 favorites]
A first-ever oral history of how Washington insiders saw the warning signs of a European land war, their frantic attempts to stop it — and the moment Putin actually crossed the border. [Politico]
posted by Kabanos at 8:32 AM on February 24, 2023 [5 favorites]
a barrel organ playing the Ukrainian anthem.
Video of said organ playing the Ukrainian anthem.
posted by Pendragon at 8:34 AM on February 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Video of said organ playing the Ukrainian anthem.
posted by Pendragon at 8:34 AM on February 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
Also... I'm seeing more and more instances of people discussing Moldova using the name "Bessarabia" which was what it was called when it was a territory of imperial Russia.
It's like calling Ukraine "The Ukraine." Worse, maybe. Identifying an independent country by its name as part of the Russian empire in the 19th century.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:47 AM on February 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
It's like calling Ukraine "The Ukraine." Worse, maybe. Identifying an independent country by its name as part of the Russian empire in the 19th century.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 8:47 AM on February 24, 2023 [3 favorites]
This is all making me very paranoid and worried for our Romanian family.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:17 AM on February 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:17 AM on February 24, 2023 [4 favorites]
Identifying an independent country by its name as part of the Russian empire in the 19th century.
Yeah, it's like referring to Finland as the Grand Duchy of Finland.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:24 AM on February 24, 2023
Yeah, it's like referring to Finland as the Grand Duchy of Finland.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:24 AM on February 24, 2023
I know I often post Phillips O'Brian in these threads, but I find a lot of his commentary illuminating, and his latest in The Atlantic is pretty good (and shortish): People Forgot How War Actually Works
Armed conflict is never straightforward. Weapons are not power. National identity matters.
posted by Harald74 at 12:52 PM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
Armed conflict is never straightforward. Weapons are not power. National identity matters.
posted by Harald74 at 12:52 PM on February 24, 2023 [2 favorites]
"Przepraszam, gdzie jest droga na Moskwy?"
Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, asking for the directions to Moscow after taking a look inside one of the Leopard 2A4 tanks arriving in Ukraine from Poland.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:11 AM on February 25, 2023 [7 favorites]
Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, asking for the directions to Moscow after taking a look inside one of the Leopard 2A4 tanks arriving in Ukraine from Poland.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:11 AM on February 25, 2023 [7 favorites]
Russia stopped oil delivery to Poland today (probably because of the Leopards). It's not a major problem since we'd brought down our reliance on them to 10% but it's embarrassing that we were still buying Russian oil.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:52 PM on February 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:52 PM on February 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, today your embarrassment comes to an end!
(Could anything have accelerated Europe's transition away from fossil fuels more than this war? I know they're doing a lot of substitutions for Russian products at the moment, but that's bound to decrease over time.)
posted by hippybear at 2:07 PM on February 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
(Could anything have accelerated Europe's transition away from fossil fuels more than this war? I know they're doing a lot of substitutions for Russian products at the moment, but that's bound to decrease over time.)
posted by hippybear at 2:07 PM on February 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
Thousands protest in Berlin against giving weapons to Ukraine
Protesters carried banners reading: ‘Helmets today, tanks tomorrow, the day after tomorrow your sons,” in reference to the manner in which the coalition government has increased its military support for Kyiv, initially donating 5,000 helmets and more recently agreeing to send German-made Leopard II tanks.posted by pwnguin at 6:42 PM on February 25, 2023
Other banners read: “Diplomaten statt Grenaten (Diplomats instead of grenades)”, “Stop the Killing” and “Not My War, Not My Government”.
(Could anything have accelerated Europe's transition away from fossil fuels more than this war?
I saw a chart the other day that claimed the timeline for transitioning to clean energy had jumped forward by five years -- I don't know if that figure is exactly accurate, but it is clear that huge steps have been taken.
posted by Dip Flash at 10:28 PM on February 25, 2023 [2 favorites]
A Reuters special report from January:
Pro-Putin operatives in Germany work to turn Berlin against Ukraine
In Germany some are clamouring for a change in course on Ukraine. Key figures in the campaign have links to the Russian state or far right, a Reuters investigation has found.
posted by Kabanos at 10:30 PM on February 25, 2023 [6 favorites]
Pro-Putin operatives in Germany work to turn Berlin against Ukraine
In Germany some are clamouring for a change in course on Ukraine. Key figures in the campaign have links to the Russian state or far right, a Reuters investigation has found.
posted by Kabanos at 10:30 PM on February 25, 2023 [6 favorites]
Explosions in Belarus, target was a military airfield, A-50 possibly damaged. (Kyiv Independent)
KI claims belarusian partisans, UA and RU TG mostly talks about drone attacks. Rumors about BY-UA border clashes denied by all sides so far.
posted by kmt at 12:34 PM on February 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
KI claims belarusian partisans, UA and RU TG mostly talks about drone attacks. Rumors about BY-UA border clashes denied by all sides so far.
posted by kmt at 12:34 PM on February 26, 2023 [1 favorite]
They really need to do something about all those careless smokers on ships and planes in Russia and now Belarus.
posted by UN at 4:58 AM on February 27, 2023
posted by UN at 4:58 AM on February 27, 2023
They really need to do something about all those careless smokers on ships and planes in Russia and now Belarus.
Perhaps they can redirect some of the window repair people to installing ashtrays.
posted by Etrigan at 5:54 AM on February 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Perhaps they can redirect some of the window repair people to installing ashtrays.
posted by Etrigan at 5:54 AM on February 27, 2023 [2 favorites]
Boris Nemtsov, like many other Russian opposition figures, journalists and others, was murdered eight years ago today for speaking out against Putin.
Here's what he said in 2014:
Why am I against the war with Ukraine? I don’t want people to die. I don’t want Russians to die, I don’t want Ukrainians to die. I don’t want there to be any refugees, but their number is approaching a million. They’re not just in Rostov and Kuban. They’re in the Yaroslavl region and in Moscow.
I consider Putin’s war against Ukraine to be the most serious of crimes. I want to say right away: this isn’t a war between Russia and Ukraine. I don’t believe in that definition. This war belongs to Putin. It’s an absolutely cynical, deceitful, bloody, and fratricidal war against our brothers in Ukraine.
Why he’s waging this war is no mystery. Everything he’s doing, both inside and outside of the country, has a single aim; to maintain power at any cost. This time, that cost is life. By sending regular military units, he’s committed a crime. [...] A crime with no statute of limitations.
Here's what he said three and half hours before he was killed:
[Our] core political demand is an immediate end to the war with Ukraine. The primary reason for the crisis is that Putin launched a war policy that’s insane, aggressive, and deadly for our country and many of its citizens. The presence of Russian troops there is documented and proven.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:12 AM on February 27, 2023 [16 favorites]
Here's what he said in 2014:
Why am I against the war with Ukraine? I don’t want people to die. I don’t want Russians to die, I don’t want Ukrainians to die. I don’t want there to be any refugees, but their number is approaching a million. They’re not just in Rostov and Kuban. They’re in the Yaroslavl region and in Moscow.
I consider Putin’s war against Ukraine to be the most serious of crimes. I want to say right away: this isn’t a war between Russia and Ukraine. I don’t believe in that definition. This war belongs to Putin. It’s an absolutely cynical, deceitful, bloody, and fratricidal war against our brothers in Ukraine.
Why he’s waging this war is no mystery. Everything he’s doing, both inside and outside of the country, has a single aim; to maintain power at any cost. This time, that cost is life. By sending regular military units, he’s committed a crime. [...] A crime with no statute of limitations.
Here's what he said three and half hours before he was killed:
[Our] core political demand is an immediate end to the war with Ukraine. The primary reason for the crisis is that Putin launched a war policy that’s insane, aggressive, and deadly for our country and many of its citizens. The presence of Russian troops there is documented and proven.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:12 AM on February 27, 2023 [16 favorites]
Russia has had limited success tactically. Some of this is because they have in recent years implemented the battalion tactical group (BTG) as a core unit in land warfare. The short version of this is that a bigger unit like a brigade detaches a battalion, making it big and strong and giving it all the best gear from the parent unit. This works fairly well for expeditionary warfare, where you need smaller, capable units, but does not seem to work all that well in a major conventional war like they have on their hands now. The US has done something similar with the Brigade Combat Team (BCT). Both Russia and the US is moving back to divisions as the main deployable units, just like old times.
And here comes the point of the comment: The Russians are trying to incorporate lessons learned in the Ukraine war on the tactical level as well, and yesterday a captured document was released to the public by Ukraine. Retired general Mick Ryan has linked a good thread describing this document, and provided added context of his own.
posted by Harald74 at 10:48 AM on February 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
And here comes the point of the comment: The Russians are trying to incorporate lessons learned in the Ukraine war on the tactical level as well, and yesterday a captured document was released to the public by Ukraine. Retired general Mick Ryan has linked a good thread describing this document, and provided added context of his own.
posted by Harald74 at 10:48 AM on February 27, 2023 [1 favorite]
In addition there is the not-formally-legal mercenary army of the Wagner Group at around 50,000 troops, answering to their leaders Prigozhin ("Putin's cook") and Utkin; and 12,000 Kadyrovites, answering directly to Chechen strongman and Kreml puppet Ramzan Kadyrov though formally organised under the Rosgvardia.
I was just listening to The Naked Pravda (Meduza's podcast) episode on the Wagner Group. One of the people they interviewed characterized them as competing "violence providers." And, unsurprisingly, a lot of their tactics were honed through the execution of Russia's wars against Chechnya.
There's no transcript, but there is a timestamped guide to the episode and the interviewees.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:24 PM on February 27, 2023
I was just listening to The Naked Pravda (Meduza's podcast) episode on the Wagner Group. One of the people they interviewed characterized them as competing "violence providers." And, unsurprisingly, a lot of their tactics were honed through the execution of Russia's wars against Chechnya.
There's no transcript, but there is a timestamped guide to the episode and the interviewees.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:24 PM on February 27, 2023
More fires:
The Telegram channels Baza and Shot reported that the facility was attacked by drones carrying explosives that fell about 100 meters (about 328 feet) from the refinery’s oil reservoirs. A source from Russia’s emergency services told the state news outlet RIA Novosti that “a drone was detected” near the terminal. Russian officials haven’t commented on the reports
The refinery is not that far from Putin's Palace.
posted by UN at 2:47 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
The Telegram channels Baza and Shot reported that the facility was attacked by drones carrying explosives that fell about 100 meters (about 328 feet) from the refinery’s oil reservoirs. A source from Russia’s emergency services told the state news outlet RIA Novosti that “a drone was detected” near the terminal. Russian officials haven’t commented on the reports
The refinery is not that far from Putin's Palace.
posted by UN at 2:47 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I've plotted the range to Putin's palace from Ukrainian-held territory several times during the conflict. I wonder what the reaction inside Russia would be if it were to burn to the ground? Would regular Russians even care, even though Putin is still fairly popular?
posted by Harald74 at 4:00 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 4:00 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
UN: The refinery is not that far from Putin's Palace.
70km, and Putin's Palace is northwest of it, closer to Ukraine. About 450km from Zaporizhia, 500km from Kherson.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:02 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
70km, and Putin's Palace is northwest of it, closer to Ukraine. About 450km from Zaporizhia, 500km from Kherson.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:02 AM on February 28, 2023 [1 favorite]
I wonder what the reaction inside Russia would be if it were to burn to the ground? Would regular Russians even care, even though Putin is still fairly popular?
Whatever its political significance, a private residence is a civilian target.
posted by automatronic at 10:11 AM on February 28, 2023
Whatever its political significance, a private residence is a civilian target.
posted by automatronic at 10:11 AM on February 28, 2023
Whatever its political significance, a private residence is a civilian target.
Not anymore. They positioned air defences there about a month ago when the first reports of Ukraine's long range drone/missiles surfaced. Air defences are a legitimate military targets and Russia quite stupidly appears to put them directly on the buildings they are supposed to defend (which as we know makes an even bigger boom when the building's are hit). I doubt Ukraine would bother though because it would achieve very little strategically to hit just one of Putin's many homes. He'd also just have another bought/built further away. Now if they were to hit lots of munition factories, rail depots, bridges and such within Russia that'd probably mess Putin up a lot more. Also hitting Wagner's HQ would be kind sweet too.
posted by srboisvert at 12:30 PM on February 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
Not anymore. They positioned air defences there about a month ago when the first reports of Ukraine's long range drone/missiles surfaced. Air defences are a legitimate military targets and Russia quite stupidly appears to put them directly on the buildings they are supposed to defend (which as we know makes an even bigger boom when the building's are hit). I doubt Ukraine would bother though because it would achieve very little strategically to hit just one of Putin's many homes. He'd also just have another bought/built further away. Now if they were to hit lots of munition factories, rail depots, bridges and such within Russia that'd probably mess Putin up a lot more. Also hitting Wagner's HQ would be kind sweet too.
posted by srboisvert at 12:30 PM on February 28, 2023 [6 favorites]
It struck me as counterintuitive that someone as hands-on involved in Russia's war would not be a legitimate target and, from what I can dig up, Commander in Chiefs are indeed considered valid military objectives [PDF] in an armed conflict.
Putin's not some guy minding his business hanging out in his palace playing Tetris by the pool or whatever.
posted by UN at 11:24 PM on February 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
Putin's not some guy minding his business hanging out in his palace playing Tetris by the pool or whatever.
posted by UN at 11:24 PM on February 28, 2023 [3 favorites]
[Commanders in Chief would be the plural, I guess? In either case, if Putin wants to show up at the Hague to demand justice, may he please go ahead and do so. There will be much to discuss.]
posted by UN at 1:28 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by UN at 1:28 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The comment I was replying to was talking about targeting the palace itself, not Putin, who is generally surmised to be spending his days in a bunker somewhere. The question was whether regular Russians would care.
And my answer remains that yes, of course they'd care, because you've just launched a missile 500km into Russia to kill a bunch of housekeeping staff and burn down a nice house. Who's next? Russian propaganda would have a field day with it, and for good reason.
posted by automatronic at 4:38 AM on March 1, 2023
And my answer remains that yes, of course they'd care, because you've just launched a missile 500km into Russia to kill a bunch of housekeeping staff and burn down a nice house. Who's next? Russian propaganda would have a field day with it, and for good reason.
posted by automatronic at 4:38 AM on March 1, 2023
So the Finnish parliament has preemptively accepted joining NATO, which means that Finland can join the alliance once Hungary, Turkey and the US approve their accession.
The reason why they did this, is that there’s an election coming up in April, and the Finns didn’t want to be in the situation of having to form the next government in a rush so that they could join.
This also means that Finland could join ahead of Sweden, and while that idea is not popular, most people in Finland and Sweden accept that it might be necessary.
posted by Kattullus at 5:33 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The reason why they did this, is that there’s an election coming up in April, and the Finns didn’t want to be in the situation of having to form the next government in a rush so that they could join.
This also means that Finland could join ahead of Sweden, and while that idea is not popular, most people in Finland and Sweden accept that it might be necessary.
posted by Kattullus at 5:33 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
The comment I was replying to was talking about targeting the palace itself, not Putin, who is generally surmised to be spending his days in a bunker somewhere. The question was whether regular Russians would care.
I understood that — however if Russian propaganda would claim it’s a civilian target, IANAL, they’d be making it up. So whether they have a field day with it or not is, I think, something that can be thrown in the pile with all the other propaganda they put out on a daily basis. According to them, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Crimea are officially part of Russia — so Ukraine (an invented country) has been blowing things up deep inside their territory every day for months. I don’t know how one can deal with their propaganda, but in my view, to try to bend reality towards their point of view is an unwinnable strategy.
posted by UN at 7:45 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
I understood that — however if Russian propaganda would claim it’s a civilian target, IANAL, they’d be making it up. So whether they have a field day with it or not is, I think, something that can be thrown in the pile with all the other propaganda they put out on a daily basis. According to them, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Crimea are officially part of Russia — so Ukraine (an invented country) has been blowing things up deep inside their territory every day for months. I don’t know how one can deal with their propaganda, but in my view, to try to bend reality towards their point of view is an unwinnable strategy.
posted by UN at 7:45 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Viktor Orbán says sure he backs Finland and Sweden, but he's going to have to put that up for debate in the Hungarian parliament.
Virtually our entire Hungarian family (ethnically Hungarian, though they live in Romania) thinks this is either a) a way to feign support while setting Hungary up to veto them or b) a power-play against the countries for their public questioning of the status of rule of law in Hungary under ruling party Fidesz, and they will either trample their NATO bid in revenge or extract promises to stay out of their way in the future.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:20 AM on March 1, 2023
Virtually our entire Hungarian family (ethnically Hungarian, though they live in Romania) thinks this is either a) a way to feign support while setting Hungary up to veto them or b) a power-play against the countries for their public questioning of the status of rule of law in Hungary under ruling party Fidesz, and they will either trample their NATO bid in revenge or extract promises to stay out of their way in the future.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:20 AM on March 1, 2023
This also means that Finland could join ahead of Sweden, and while that idea is not popular, most people in Finland and Sweden accept that it might be necessary.
Unpopular in Sweden (because they don't want to be left behind?) or in Finland? (Just curious - I know very little about the politics here)
posted by trig at 9:46 AM on March 1, 2023
Unpopular in Sweden (because they don't want to be left behind?) or in Finland? (Just curious - I know very little about the politics here)
posted by trig at 9:46 AM on March 1, 2023
The idea was that both countries, which have long-standing cultural ties, as well as historically sharing a commitment to neutrality and non-alignment, would take this large step into a different global stance together. That resonated quite deeply. However, I think that the long process has made the accession fairly normal in both countries, so it isn’t as big of a deal as it would’ve been last summer, if Finland had gone in ahead of Sweden.
posted by Kattullus at 10:37 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 10:37 AM on March 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
Also, Erdogan is trying to get Sweden to ditch its pro-Kurds stance, which could make Sweden's NATO accession a long drawn-out process. Finland, quite rightly, wants to get under the NATO umbrella without having to wait for that to be hammered out.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:30 AM on March 1, 2023
posted by Stoneshop at 11:30 AM on March 1, 2023
So whether they have a field day with it or not is, I think, something that can be thrown in the pile with all the other propaganda they put out on a daily basis. According to them, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Crimea are officially part of Russia — so Ukraine (an invented country) has been blowing things up deep inside their territory every day for months. I don’t know how one can deal with their propaganda, but in my view, to try to bend reality towards their point of view is an unwinnable strategy.
What matters is not what the propaganda says, what matters is how many people are likely to believe it. It's unlikely there are many Russians out there who believe the media they see is 100% trustworthy, any more than people do elsewhere. Everyone always has their own view about what parts of the news are true and what parts are bullshit.
Truth still matters, even in the face of blanket flagrant propaganda, because of what other information creeps in around the edges. Yes, Russia claims the annexed territories are part of Russia now, but hardly any of the rest of the world takes that claim seriously, and that fact is not completely lost on the whole of the Russian public.
If Ukraine wastes limited long-range resources on striking targets in Russia which are unconvincing as important military targets, and which are easy to argue are illegitimate civilian targets, then yes, that does help Russian propaganda. Not because it gives them things to say that they couldn't before - they can and do make things up out of whole cloth - but because it makes the propaganda stand a better chance of convincing people who are on the fence about what they believe about the war.
posted by automatronic at 4:22 PM on March 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
What matters is not what the propaganda says, what matters is how many people are likely to believe it. It's unlikely there are many Russians out there who believe the media they see is 100% trustworthy, any more than people do elsewhere. Everyone always has their own view about what parts of the news are true and what parts are bullshit.
Truth still matters, even in the face of blanket flagrant propaganda, because of what other information creeps in around the edges. Yes, Russia claims the annexed territories are part of Russia now, but hardly any of the rest of the world takes that claim seriously, and that fact is not completely lost on the whole of the Russian public.
If Ukraine wastes limited long-range resources on striking targets in Russia which are unconvincing as important military targets, and which are easy to argue are illegitimate civilian targets, then yes, that does help Russian propaganda. Not because it gives them things to say that they couldn't before - they can and do make things up out of whole cloth - but because it makes the propaganda stand a better chance of convincing people who are on the fence about what they believe about the war.
posted by automatronic at 4:22 PM on March 1, 2023 [3 favorites]
automatronic: they can and do make things up out of whole cloth
Sorry, the Whole Cloth factory's inventory has gone "inexplicably missing", but they do just as well with thin air.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:49 PM on March 1, 2023
Sorry, the Whole Cloth factory's inventory has gone "inexplicably missing", but they do just as well with thin air.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:49 PM on March 1, 2023
Thanks for the explanation, Kattullus.
posted by trig at 3:47 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by trig at 3:47 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
A sobering read on the consequences of the war on the soil quality in Ukraine: Soils of war: The toxic legacy for Ukraine's breadbasket
posted by Harald74 at 4:08 AM on March 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
Two dozen experts who spoke with Reuters, including soil scientists, farmers, grain companies and analysts, said it would take decades to fix the damage to Europe's breadbasket - including contamination, mines and destroyed infrastructure - and that global food supplies could suffer for years to come.
posted by Harald74 at 4:08 AM on March 2, 2023 [4 favorites]
I was struck by this tweet by the cautious and sober military analyst Michael Kaufman:
posted by Kattullus at 5:27 AM on March 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
The battle for Vuhledar is Russian tanks and BMPs running into mines across open terrain. Stopping. Getting hit by ATGMs and artillery. Then trying to assault again the next day after UA units replace mines in the field. It’s far from smart, but it’s no epic tank battle.What a waste of lives, resources and time.
posted by Kattullus at 5:27 AM on March 2, 2023 [3 favorites]
Kattullus: Then trying to assault again the next day after UA units replace mines in the field.
... partly by using M70/M73 Remote Anti-Armour Mines. They won't get to place them exactly, but it's infinitely safer than going out in those fields themselves. Also, spreading a few that way behind a Russian advance is going to make the day end badly for them if they retreat.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:49 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
... partly by using M70/M73 Remote Anti-Armour Mines. They won't get to place them exactly, but it's infinitely safer than going out in those fields themselves. Also, spreading a few that way behind a Russian advance is going to make the day end badly for them if they retreat.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:49 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
A sobering read on the consequences of the war on the soil quality in Ukraine: Soils of war: The toxic legacy for Ukraine's breadbasket
Two dozen experts who spoke with Reuters, including soil scientists, farmers, grain companies and analysts, said it would take decades to fix the damage to Europe's breadbasket - including contamination, mines and destroyed infrastructure - and that global food supplies could suffer for years to come.
They are also killing incredible numbers of trees in the eastern part of Ukraine with artillery. I can only imagine what is happening to the wildlife and migratory birds that count on the insect biomass that should be feeding on the trees that won't leaf out this spring. I'm betting there is also a lot of tree cutting in the rest of country just for heating and cooking fuel as well. War is every possible kind of disaster rolled into one.
posted by srboisvert at 8:45 AM on March 2, 2023 [5 favorites]
Two dozen experts who spoke with Reuters, including soil scientists, farmers, grain companies and analysts, said it would take decades to fix the damage to Europe's breadbasket - including contamination, mines and destroyed infrastructure - and that global food supplies could suffer for years to come.
They are also killing incredible numbers of trees in the eastern part of Ukraine with artillery. I can only imagine what is happening to the wildlife and migratory birds that count on the insect biomass that should be feeding on the trees that won't leaf out this spring. I'm betting there is also a lot of tree cutting in the rest of country just for heating and cooking fuel as well. War is every possible kind of disaster rolled into one.
posted by srboisvert at 8:45 AM on March 2, 2023 [5 favorites]
I'm curious if anybody has estimated how much difference Ukraine's weaponry and training can make with actual numbers and if the numbers actually add up to victory over Russia's numbers. It seems to me that Ukraine would need to have a skill and weaponry precision advantage that is unattainable even with the modern system and tanks they will be getting. Air superiority might tip the scales but that seems very far away.
For example some current examples put Ukraine's casualties at about 70% of Russia's. U.S. authorities estimate Russia was firing about 20,000 shells a day and has now dropped a bit. Ukraine is estimated to be firing 5000-6000 shells a day. Russia is estimated to have lost 3X more equipment than Ukraine (9000 vs. 3000). The numbers while favoring Ukraine in an absolute sene don't seem to currently add up to favoring Ukraine's possibility of victory without some spectacularly successful strategy combined with epic Russian failure.
posted by srboisvert at 9:35 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
For example some current examples put Ukraine's casualties at about 70% of Russia's. U.S. authorities estimate Russia was firing about 20,000 shells a day and has now dropped a bit. Ukraine is estimated to be firing 5000-6000 shells a day. Russia is estimated to have lost 3X more equipment than Ukraine (9000 vs. 3000). The numbers while favoring Ukraine in an absolute sene don't seem to currently add up to favoring Ukraine's possibility of victory without some spectacularly successful strategy combined with epic Russian failure.
posted by srboisvert at 9:35 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russia accuses Ukraine of cross-border attack in Bryansk
Basically, no one outside of Russia believes this, but it's still jarring to see. Putin probably hopes this fires up the Russian people to stay in the war.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:50 AM on March 2, 2023
Basically, no one outside of Russia believes this, but it's still jarring to see. Putin probably hopes this fires up the Russian people to stay in the war.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 10:50 AM on March 2, 2023
DirtyOldTown: Russia accuses Ukraine of cross-border attack in Bryansk
It's been claimed by the Russian Volunteer Corps.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:02 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's been claimed by the Russian Volunteer Corps.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:02 AM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
So it's more a case of denying there is dissent, I guess.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:02 PM on March 2, 2023
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:02 PM on March 2, 2023
I'm curious if anybody has estimated how much difference Ukraine's weaponry and training can make with actual numbers and if the numbers actually add up to victory over Russia's numbers.
I think if Russia, as a society, goes "all in" on conquering Ukraine they may eventually overcome Ukraine even with maximal NATO material help. The question is, are they willing to pay the price? Will young Russians continue to allow themselves to be drafted for the project to slaughter and be slaughtered by Ukrainians? Or, if the West continues to support Ukraine will young Russians and their families start to question and resist being drafted into the bloodbath? If the Ukrainians can continue to make local gains over the next year and can make it clear to the Russians that they have to spend an unacceptable amount of their blood and treasure to take Ukraine, then the Russian appetite for war might disappear.
Russia is fighting a war of choice. They chose it because they were sure they could win easily. Ukraine, with the West's help, can make them see it will be much, much harder than they thought.
posted by Reverend John at 12:21 PM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
I think if Russia, as a society, goes "all in" on conquering Ukraine they may eventually overcome Ukraine even with maximal NATO material help. The question is, are they willing to pay the price? Will young Russians continue to allow themselves to be drafted for the project to slaughter and be slaughtered by Ukrainians? Or, if the West continues to support Ukraine will young Russians and their families start to question and resist being drafted into the bloodbath? If the Ukrainians can continue to make local gains over the next year and can make it clear to the Russians that they have to spend an unacceptable amount of their blood and treasure to take Ukraine, then the Russian appetite for war might disappear.
Russia is fighting a war of choice. They chose it because they were sure they could win easily. Ukraine, with the West's help, can make them see it will be much, much harder than they thought.
posted by Reverend John at 12:21 PM on March 2, 2023 [2 favorites]
Will young Russians continue to allow themselves to be drafted for the project to slaughter and be slaughtered by Ukrainians?
This seems to me to be a very very complicated question.
For starters, I think nearly every draftable man who had the means left Russia in Q4 of 2022 after the mobilization was announced. So what is left there are people who don't have any choice for whatever reason. Many of these are not ethnic Russian, but are from federally swallowed non-white subgroups. A lot of Russia is not really well developed, and a lot of places don't even have grocery stores or good roads, let alone choices for the population. And we're already seeing they're drafting directly out of prisons, so they're running low on people to take into the military.
And Russia, demographically, didn't have that many men of army age to begin with even before this war was started.
So the remaining population is already heavily weeded out, either through leaving the country or being already dead, and many of who are left might be of fighting age, but have grown up in a total infusion of state propaganda because that's the main tool for keeping these satellite regions under Moscow's thumb... so those who are left are heavily programmed to support the State and want to rid the world of these Ukrainian fascists who are plotting with NATO to ruin the (not yet lived but very aspirational) Russian Way Of Life.
I mean, I guess if the war goes on long enough, the children Russia has kidnapped out of Ukraine will be old enough to send back there to fight... but I'm just not sure that Russia really had much superiority in the manpower department at all.
posted by hippybear at 2:03 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
This seems to me to be a very very complicated question.
For starters, I think nearly every draftable man who had the means left Russia in Q4 of 2022 after the mobilization was announced. So what is left there are people who don't have any choice for whatever reason. Many of these are not ethnic Russian, but are from federally swallowed non-white subgroups. A lot of Russia is not really well developed, and a lot of places don't even have grocery stores or good roads, let alone choices for the population. And we're already seeing they're drafting directly out of prisons, so they're running low on people to take into the military.
And Russia, demographically, didn't have that many men of army age to begin with even before this war was started.
So the remaining population is already heavily weeded out, either through leaving the country or being already dead, and many of who are left might be of fighting age, but have grown up in a total infusion of state propaganda because that's the main tool for keeping these satellite regions under Moscow's thumb... so those who are left are heavily programmed to support the State and want to rid the world of these Ukrainian fascists who are plotting with NATO to ruin the (not yet lived but very aspirational) Russian Way Of Life.
I mean, I guess if the war goes on long enough, the children Russia has kidnapped out of Ukraine will be old enough to send back there to fight... but I'm just not sure that Russia really had much superiority in the manpower department at all.
posted by hippybear at 2:03 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
DirtyOldTown: So it's more a case of denying there is dissent, I guess.
Russian propaganda would have to choose between attributing this to Ukraine, a country that doesn't actually exist as one and is inferior in all aspects (but still doesn't exist anyway), or to Russian partisans who shouldn't exist either because why would Russians rebel against their motherland, and even become so rebellious and bold that they are taking up arms.
Bit of a bind, if you ask me.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:03 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russian propaganda would have to choose between attributing this to Ukraine, a country that doesn't actually exist as one and is inferior in all aspects (but still doesn't exist anyway), or to Russian partisans who shouldn't exist either because why would Russians rebel against their motherland, and even become so rebellious and bold that they are taking up arms.
Bit of a bind, if you ask me.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:03 PM on March 2, 2023 [1 favorite]
hippybear: And we're already seeing they're drafting directly out of prisons, so they're running low on people to take into the military.
That was primarily Wagner PMC (Particularly Malevolent Crooks), promising inmates that their sentences would be dismissed if they signed on and served six months (as badly equipped and trained as they would be there was little chance of staying alive that long). Putin recently had a bit of a tiff with Prigozhin, Wagner's founder and boss, and prohibited the drafting of inmates, as well as in related news the delivery of munition to Wagner frontline troops.
The regular army just had a impressive rate of calling up people that would have been rejected on sight in any other army: chronically ill, blind or otherwise handicapped, indispensable production workers, etcetera.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:22 PM on March 2, 2023
That was primarily Wagner PMC (Particularly Malevolent Crooks), promising inmates that their sentences would be dismissed if they signed on and served six months (as badly equipped and trained as they would be there was little chance of staying alive that long). Putin recently had a bit of a tiff with Prigozhin, Wagner's founder and boss, and prohibited the drafting of inmates, as well as in related news the delivery of munition to Wagner frontline troops.
The regular army just had a impressive rate of calling up people that would have been rejected on sight in any other army: chronically ill, blind or otherwise handicapped, indispensable production workers, etcetera.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:22 PM on March 2, 2023
Oryx has released a list of Russian equipment not lost in Ukraine. Not actual numbers, but models of equipment not yet documented as destroyed or captured somewhere in Ukraine.
"T-62M Obr. 2022" is an entry I would not have expected to see a year ago...
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on March 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
"T-62M Obr. 2022" is an entry I would not have expected to see a year ago...
posted by Harald74 at 1:23 AM on March 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
And Russia, demographically, didn't have that many men of army age to begin with even before this war was started.
People keep saying this but they have somewhere around 30-35 million men of fighting age (about 7X what Ukraine has). The rough estimate for those who fled the draft was under 1 million.
Again the math question: Is Ukraine fighting at a performance level that makes their troops 7X as effective as Russians? The casualty estimates seem to be around 1.5X more effective.
posted by srboisvert at 8:15 AM on March 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
People keep saying this but they have somewhere around 30-35 million men of fighting age (about 7X what Ukraine has). The rough estimate for those who fled the draft was under 1 million.
Again the math question: Is Ukraine fighting at a performance level that makes their troops 7X as effective as Russians? The casualty estimates seem to be around 1.5X more effective.
posted by srboisvert at 8:15 AM on March 3, 2023 [2 favorites]
Again the math question: Is Ukraine fighting at a performance level that makes their troops 7X as effective as Russians? The casualty estimates seem to be around 1.5X more effective.
Danilov was saying that around Bahkmut at least, the Russians have been losing 7 for every Ukrainian.
I'd pretty much believe it given what's coming out of Russia in regards to how they're basically improperly using their tail as teeth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:32 AM on March 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
Danilov was saying that around Bahkmut at least, the Russians have been losing 7 for every Ukrainian.
I'd pretty much believe it given what's coming out of Russia in regards to how they're basically improperly using their tail as teeth.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:32 AM on March 3, 2023 [1 favorite]
30-35 million men of fighting age (about 7X what Ukraine has)
That seems unlikely? The overall pre-war population ratio is 3X, they have similar issues with the population pyramid (not surprising being both ex-USSR), it seems unlikely that the ratio for men of fighting age is twice that ratio; I assume some number of men 18-60 have left despite the freeze but I doubt it is half of them. As well, 20 percent of Ukraine's military is female as opposed to 4 percent of Russia's.
posted by tavella at 4:11 PM on March 3, 2023 [5 favorites]
That seems unlikely? The overall pre-war population ratio is 3X, they have similar issues with the population pyramid (not surprising being both ex-USSR), it seems unlikely that the ratio for men of fighting age is twice that ratio; I assume some number of men 18-60 have left despite the freeze but I doubt it is half of them. As well, 20 percent of Ukraine's military is female as opposed to 4 percent of Russia's.
posted by tavella at 4:11 PM on March 3, 2023 [5 favorites]
The general quoted rule of thumb is attacking forces need to outnumber the defenders by a least three times the numbers. This assumes mostly equivalent forces, adequate leadership, and good motivation/morale. Russia currently lacks at least two of those, and it shows.
Between the Ukrainian range advantage and the suicidal tactics of Russia, it seems likely that Russia will run out of cannon fodder before Ukraine breaks. Putins best hope at this point seems to be waiting for NATO et al to stop supplying Ukraine and hope he has a bigger stick left at that point.
posted by Jacen at 2:19 AM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Between the Ukrainian range advantage and the suicidal tactics of Russia, it seems likely that Russia will run out of cannon fodder before Ukraine breaks. Putins best hope at this point seems to be waiting for NATO et al to stop supplying Ukraine and hope he has a bigger stick left at that point.
posted by Jacen at 2:19 AM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Harald74: Not actual numbers, but models of equipment not yet documented as destroyed or captured somewhere in Ukraine.
And two have already been stricken off.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:28 AM on March 4, 2023
And two have already been stricken off.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:28 AM on March 4, 2023
NPR: In the Donbas, Russia's vast numbers of troops weigh heavily on Ukraine's defenders
On the other hand, in 1968 the population of the US was about 200 million, while the population of North Vietnam was about 20 million.
posted by Reverend John at 7:19 AM on March 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
On the other hand, in 1968 the population of the US was about 200 million, while the population of North Vietnam was about 20 million.
posted by Reverend John at 7:19 AM on March 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
A moment of levity at the G20 summit.
posted by Reverend John at 8:15 AM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 8:15 AM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Thought this was interesting. Especially the progression. At first, Germany doesn't want to give any tanks at all. And now they're talking about putting a tank factory in Ukraine.
Rheinmetall has been chomping at the bit to arm Ukraine since the very beginning. They've basically been sitting in the background going "Hey! We have dozens of Leopards ready to go! Just give us the word!"
It's basically been Scholz that's been slow walking every possible avenue of German combat assistance. Probably because of the SPD old guard's long held ties to Russia. Even Gerhard still has an SPD post despite heading to Moscow regularly to pick up his checks.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:04 PM on March 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
Rheinmetall has been chomping at the bit to arm Ukraine since the very beginning. They've basically been sitting in the background going "Hey! We have dozens of Leopards ready to go! Just give us the word!"
It's basically been Scholz that's been slow walking every possible avenue of German combat assistance. Probably because of the SPD old guard's long held ties to Russia. Even Gerhard still has an SPD post despite heading to Moscow regularly to pick up his checks.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:04 PM on March 4, 2023 [1 favorite]
A couple of interesting pieces about the weird and ancient vehicles the Russians are bringing out of storage due to their unsustainable equipment losses:
The BTR-50P Was The Soviet Army’s Main Fighting Vehicle ... In 1954. Now It’s Back
Desperate Russian Forces Are Adding 80-Year-Old Naval Guns To 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors
posted by Dip Flash at 4:38 PM on March 4, 2023
The BTR-50P Was The Soviet Army’s Main Fighting Vehicle ... In 1954. Now It’s Back
Desperate Russian Forces Are Adding 80-Year-Old Naval Guns To 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors
posted by Dip Flash at 4:38 PM on March 4, 2023
Wild that Rheinmetall wants to build a tank factory in Ukraine... and Ukraine would welcome it. That would have blown people's minds in, say, 1980.
Then again, as my friend who's a WW2 buff reminded me, in 1940, it wouldn't have been all that surprising.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:23 PM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Then again, as my friend who's a WW2 buff reminded me, in 1940, it wouldn't have been all that surprising.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:23 PM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
Seems like one of the value addeds for Western tanks is that their factories are not in Ukraine. Not that this would be happening any time soon.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:08 PM on March 4, 2023
posted by Meatbomb at 11:08 PM on March 4, 2023
Dmitry Medvedev says Russia would salute the proposed factory. With a cruise missile.
posted by UN at 11:10 PM on March 4, 2023
posted by UN at 11:10 PM on March 4, 2023
The tank factory itself is not super-surprising, but I'm a bit at a loss why the KF51 is projected as the output. It's very much an in-development vehicle, being revealed to the public just last summer. It's also an in-house development for Rheinmetall, and the specifications on the demo vehicle are not ordered by any customer that we know off. The 130mm gun shown is not used by anyone yet, for example. There's a lot of clickbaity headlines out there on the KF51 ("game changer!1!"), but a more sober, but off-the-cuff, take from previous M1 Abrams commander and amateur historian The Chieftain can be found here.
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on March 4, 2023 [2 favorites]
That being said, the KF51 has a Leopard 2 hull and running gear seems to be derived from the Leopard 2, and assuming that will still be the case for the production variant, it might mean Leo 2 production/upgrades in the Ukrainian factory if KF51 orders fail to materialise.
posted by Harald74 at 11:15 PM on March 4, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 11:15 PM on March 4, 2023
Retired general Mick Ryan on the possible withdrawal from Bakhmut.:
Therefore, what might a withdrawal by the Ukrainians from Bakhmut look like?
In October 2022, I explored how tactical withdrawals are conducted by military forces, and the considerations of such withdrawals in the context of the Russians in western Kherson. I will apply a similar approach to exploring the considerations for a possible Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrawal from Bakhmut.
posted by Harald74 at 3:19 AM on March 5, 2023
Therefore, what might a withdrawal by the Ukrainians from Bakhmut look like?
In October 2022, I explored how tactical withdrawals are conducted by military forces, and the considerations of such withdrawals in the context of the Russians in western Kherson. I will apply a similar approach to exploring the considerations for a possible Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrawal from Bakhmut.
posted by Harald74 at 3:19 AM on March 5, 2023
A couple of interesting pieces about the weird and ancient vehicles the Russians are bringing out of storage due to their unsustainable equipment losses:
The BTR-50P Was The Soviet Army’s Main Fighting Vehicle ... In 1954. Now It’s Back
Desperate Russian Forces Are Adding 80-Year-Old Naval Guns To 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors
This another bit of what I think of as truthful but misleading spin around this war. Yes Russia is dragging old equipment out of storage. Why? Because they can. A 70 year old tank still provide more protection than a stock pickup truck or just walking.
Ukraine is doing the exact same thing and some things that are even more disturbing than using old armor (Russia probably is too with a dishwasher thrown in to boot). If you watch any of the go-pro combat footage of Ukrainian soldiers you'll see they are often using straight up passenger cars and pickup trucks in the combat zones to deliver troops, ammo resupply and to evacuate wounded. These are not even up-armored "technicals" with mounted machines guns (which ukraine is also using along with Desert Rat style dune buggies). They're just completely stock retail vehicles. I saw one video of a Ukrainian foreign legion style unit being resupplied with anti-tank weapons which where just chaotically piled in the bed of a pickup truck while in the middle of a fight with a BTR (and the go-pro wearer's parked pickup truck was blown up)
It's war. People will use whatever they can get their hands on and it would be weird if Russia didn't use everything it could. Ukraine itself is basically fighting with old soviet gear and Western allies' old hand-me-downs and early in the invasion was prepping Molotov cocktails.
posted by srboisvert at 8:43 AM on March 5, 2023
The BTR-50P Was The Soviet Army’s Main Fighting Vehicle ... In 1954. Now It’s Back
Desperate Russian Forces Are Adding 80-Year-Old Naval Guns To 70-Year-Old Armored Tractors
This another bit of what I think of as truthful but misleading spin around this war. Yes Russia is dragging old equipment out of storage. Why? Because they can. A 70 year old tank still provide more protection than a stock pickup truck or just walking.
Ukraine is doing the exact same thing and some things that are even more disturbing than using old armor (Russia probably is too with a dishwasher thrown in to boot). If you watch any of the go-pro combat footage of Ukrainian soldiers you'll see they are often using straight up passenger cars and pickup trucks in the combat zones to deliver troops, ammo resupply and to evacuate wounded. These are not even up-armored "technicals" with mounted machines guns (which ukraine is also using along with Desert Rat style dune buggies). They're just completely stock retail vehicles. I saw one video of a Ukrainian foreign legion style unit being resupplied with anti-tank weapons which where just chaotically piled in the bed of a pickup truck while in the middle of a fight with a BTR (and the go-pro wearer's parked pickup truck was blown up)
It's war. People will use whatever they can get their hands on and it would be weird if Russia didn't use everything it could. Ukraine itself is basically fighting with old soviet gear and Western allies' old hand-me-downs and early in the invasion was prepping Molotov cocktails.
posted by srboisvert at 8:43 AM on March 5, 2023
Russia’s Wagner Troops Exhaust Ukrainian Forces in Bakhmut
Deadly fight against the penal battalions threatens Kyiv’s ability to mount spring offensive
Some pretty interesting details in here about the attrition of both sides.
posted by srboisvert at 11:12 AM on March 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
Deadly fight against the penal battalions threatens Kyiv’s ability to mount spring offensive
Some pretty interesting details in here about the attrition of both sides.
posted by srboisvert at 11:12 AM on March 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
Yes Russia is dragging old equipment out of storage. Why? Because they can.
No, it's because they have to, which is rather a difference. Russia started this war not using crap like this because they had huge amounts of more recent materiel, after all they were the "second army of the world". And then they lost most of it. Ukraine on the other hand has been using pickup trucks and the like from the start because they did not have better gear... but they never claimed to be a great power like Russia. They've also lost plenty of gear as well, of course, but their gear is more likely to be replaced with things like M117s, Bushmasters, and other more modern equipment, not older stuff, any older gear they had was already in use.
I don't underestimate Russia's resources, a lot of crap soldiers and crap equipment can still overwhelm a smaller, somewhat better force, and of course, a lot of Ukraine's soldiers are also only lightly trained members of the TDF, but you seem to overestimate them considerably as you did the population advantage.
posted by tavella at 11:28 AM on March 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
No, it's because they have to, which is rather a difference. Russia started this war not using crap like this because they had huge amounts of more recent materiel, after all they were the "second army of the world". And then they lost most of it. Ukraine on the other hand has been using pickup trucks and the like from the start because they did not have better gear... but they never claimed to be a great power like Russia. They've also lost plenty of gear as well, of course, but their gear is more likely to be replaced with things like M117s, Bushmasters, and other more modern equipment, not older stuff, any older gear they had was already in use.
I don't underestimate Russia's resources, a lot of crap soldiers and crap equipment can still overwhelm a smaller, somewhat better force, and of course, a lot of Ukraine's soldiers are also only lightly trained members of the TDF, but you seem to overestimate them considerably as you did the population advantage.
posted by tavella at 11:28 AM on March 5, 2023 [4 favorites]
At some point Russia's going to need to keep someone around to keep the lights on at home. They may have a larger population and more equipment, but they can't actually send everyone and everything to die and get destroyed in Ukraine.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is finished if Ukrainians stop fighting. That, I would guess, is something the math equation mentioned above doesn't begin to encapsulate. We have every indication that Ukraine is united to fight until the end... And every indication that Russian leaders, propagandists and common soldiers are united in looking for the one to blame for the mess they're in.
Rheinmetall should build two or three tank factories in Ukraine. The message it would send would be worth it alone.
posted by UN at 12:02 PM on March 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
Ukraine, on the other hand, is finished if Ukrainians stop fighting. That, I would guess, is something the math equation mentioned above doesn't begin to encapsulate. We have every indication that Ukraine is united to fight until the end... And every indication that Russian leaders, propagandists and common soldiers are united in looking for the one to blame for the mess they're in.
Rheinmetall should build two or three tank factories in Ukraine. The message it would send would be worth it alone.
posted by UN at 12:02 PM on March 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
srboisvert: Some pretty interesting details in here about the attrition of both sides.
That’s one of the more depressing battlefield stories I’ve read from this war. The combination of the inhumanity of how Wagner has treated their penal soldiers, plus the effect it has had on the Ukrainian army defending Bakhmut, is distressing.
posted by Kattullus at 2:12 PM on March 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
That’s one of the more depressing battlefield stories I’ve read from this war. The combination of the inhumanity of how Wagner has treated their penal soldiers, plus the effect it has had on the Ukrainian army defending Bakhmut, is distressing.
posted by Kattullus at 2:12 PM on March 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
More interviews with Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut.
posted by UN at 12:40 AM on March 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by UN at 12:40 AM on March 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Ukrainian military and civilian leadership is committing to continue defending Bakhmut, according to a press release from today.
posted by Harald74 at 7:21 AM on March 6, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 7:21 AM on March 6, 2023
Analysts Micheal Kofman and Rob Lee visited Bakhmut last week, and they concluded the situation looked difficult.
posted by Harald74 at 7:26 AM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 7:26 AM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
tavella: No, it's because they have to, which is rather a difference. Russia started this war not using crap like this because they had huge amounts of more recent materiel, after all they were the "second army of the world". And then they lost most of it.
Sufficiently so that they're now deploying T-62s, a tank that was pretty good 60 years ago. Okay, they've made some upgrades but it still lacks ERA, and against modern AT weapons about the only advantage over a cardboard box is that the T-62 can move under its own power.
Same with the T-72B3 Obr. 2022. Yes, it's a functioning tank already, and it's definitely quicker to upgrade a bunch of them than to try to get a couple of their Wunderwaffe, the T-14 Armata out the door, as that seems to be an impossible task. But you wouldn't spend effort on a T-72 if you still had sufficient T-80 and T-90, tanks that were meant to take on the Leopard 2 that's now being sent to Ukraine.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:54 AM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
Sufficiently so that they're now deploying T-62s, a tank that was pretty good 60 years ago. Okay, they've made some upgrades but it still lacks ERA, and against modern AT weapons about the only advantage over a cardboard box is that the T-62 can move under its own power.
Same with the T-72B3 Obr. 2022. Yes, it's a functioning tank already, and it's definitely quicker to upgrade a bunch of them than to try to get a couple of their Wunderwaffe, the T-14 Armata out the door, as that seems to be an impossible task. But you wouldn't spend effort on a T-72 if you still had sufficient T-80 and T-90, tanks that were meant to take on the Leopard 2 that's now being sent to Ukraine.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:54 AM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
NATO estimates Russia lost 5 times more soldiers in Bakhmut than Ukraine
NATO intelligence estimates that for every Ukrainian soldier killed defending Bakhmut, Russian forces have lost at least five, a military official with the North Atlantic alliance told CNN on Monday.posted by srboisvert at 12:56 PM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
The official cautioned the five to one ratio was an informed estimate based on intelligence.
Ukrainian military and civilian leadership is committing to continue defending Bakhmut, according to a press release from today.
Good strategy not to announce your strategic withdrawal in advance unless you want it to become a rout (something the US military and its leadership should learn)
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut
Good strategy not to announce your strategic withdrawal in advance unless you want it to become a rout (something the US military and its leadership should learn)
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut
Considerations for the Withdrawalposted by srboisvert at 3:32 PM on March 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
First, deception operations are vital. Key aims will be to deceive the Russians about whether the Ukrainians actually will withdraw, and if so, what might be the timing of such an activity. Some deception might be achieved by stepped up patrols, increased fire support, decoys, as well as simulating normal activities and communications. The reality is however that it will be difficult to conceal from the Russians an intention to withdraw and it is likely any withdrawal, even at night, will be observed and placed under pressure by the Russians. That said, the Ukrainians will aim to deceive the Russians at every step of any withdrawal.
Knowing the Ukrainians they're going to fake not having a withdrawal in just the right way to make the Russians think they're having a withdrawal and draw Russian attention to one place and then WHAM! the Ukrainians attack at an important place that does major damage to the Russian mission.
posted by hippybear at 4:51 PM on March 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:51 PM on March 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
The fog of war is very much in effect, yes. If you look at different accounts from the Ukrainian side on the ground in Bakhmut it spans from "we're left here without support to die" to "we're cutting down the orks like the wrath of God". It will be years before we get a clear picture of what is really going on.
posted by Harald74 at 12:20 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:20 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
And it's been confirmed that JDAM-ER are in use in Ukraine. Dropped from Sukhoi or MiG jets, so another victory for the duck-tape-and-bailing-wire crew that integrated the AGM-88 earlier.
There are some new considerations for the Russians here. Not only can a hefty load of high explosive suddenly materialise in new and exiting places, prompting a new round of reorganisation of logistics and support elements, but positions that are practically immune to 155mm's load of around 7 kgs of TNT are not immune to around 400 or 800 kgs from an air-dropped bomb. The exact flavour of bomb being used has not been disclosed though, afaik.
The biggest disadvantage is that they have to be dropped from aircraft operating uncomfortably close to Russian lines.
I wonder if the sheer availability of JDAM kits (Boeing has delivered 430k of them) is the major advantage of providing them in these times of 155mm shortage. At least while we're waiting for the GLSDB deliveries.
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on March 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
There are some new considerations for the Russians here. Not only can a hefty load of high explosive suddenly materialise in new and exiting places, prompting a new round of reorganisation of logistics and support elements, but positions that are practically immune to 155mm's load of around 7 kgs of TNT are not immune to around 400 or 800 kgs from an air-dropped bomb. The exact flavour of bomb being used has not been disclosed though, afaik.
The biggest disadvantage is that they have to be dropped from aircraft operating uncomfortably close to Russian lines.
I wonder if the sheer availability of JDAM kits (Boeing has delivered 430k of them) is the major advantage of providing them in these times of 155mm shortage. At least while we're waiting for the GLSDB deliveries.
posted by Harald74 at 12:30 AM on March 7, 2023 [3 favorites]
Harald74: The exact flavour of bomb being used has not been disclosed though, afaik.
I'd opt for Carolina Reaper if that's available, else Madam Jeanette.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:26 AM on March 7, 2023
I'd opt for Carolina Reaper if that's available, else Madam Jeanette.
posted by Stoneshop at 3:26 AM on March 7, 2023
"For the first time in history, the people bought 101 APCs for their Military. This is about Ukrainians!🇺🇦
The biggest ever batch of tracked armored vehicles supplied not on the state level but by the people. Thank you all who donated from Ukraine and abroad!
First 24/101 here."
posted by UN at 4:18 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
The biggest ever batch of tracked armored vehicles supplied not on the state level but by the people. Thank you all who donated from Ukraine and abroad!
First 24/101 here."
posted by UN at 4:18 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
positions that are practically immune to 155mm's load of around 7 kgs of TNT are not immune to around 400 or 800 kgs from an air-dropped bomb.
The change in scale of explosion is something to behold. You won't see adjacent armor surviving a hit on a neighbor.
The other interesting thing about JDAM kits are that they are relatively inexpensive so instead of "throwing lamborghinis" (Javelins cost ~$200K) at the enemy JDAMs are throwing ordinary automobiles (~20-30K + the cost of the bomb ~$2-3K).
posted by srboisvert at 7:26 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
The change in scale of explosion is something to behold. You won't see adjacent armor surviving a hit on a neighbor.
The other interesting thing about JDAM kits are that they are relatively inexpensive so instead of "throwing lamborghinis" (Javelins cost ~$200K) at the enemy JDAMs are throwing ordinary automobiles (~20-30K + the cost of the bomb ~$2-3K).
posted by srboisvert at 7:26 AM on March 7, 2023 [2 favorites]
Politico: U.S. military eyes mounting Western air-to-air missiles on Ukrainian MiGs
I'm curious to how they're going to pull it off in a short timeframe, though. Or maybe the work has been going on quietly for a while?
posted by Harald74 at 2:07 AM on March 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
The U.S. military is studying whether it’s possible to integrate advanced Western air-to-air missiles with Ukraine’s Soviet-era fighter jets, in the latest attempt to jury-rig old platforms with new capabilities ahead of what’s expected to be a bloody spring.This is similar to the JDAM situation, I suppose, in that a plentiful supply of AIM-120 makes it worth the effort to integrate it on a new platform.
Officials are looking into whether AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, designed to be fired from Western fighter jets such as the U.S.-made F-16, can be mounted on Ukraine’s existing MiGs, according to two Defense Department officials and another person involved in the discussions.
I'm curious to how they're going to pull it off in a short timeframe, though. Or maybe the work has been going on quietly for a while?
posted by Harald74 at 2:07 AM on March 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
Jesus, we need to get them Western fighter jets already. Guess its time for another letter to my congresspeople.
posted by Reverend John at 6:02 AM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 6:02 AM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Western fighter jets
There's the jets, and there's the training. The latter is being assessed, according to the British Telegraph newspaper.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:41 AM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's the jets, and there's the training. The latter is being assessed, according to the British Telegraph newspaper.
posted by Stoneshop at 7:41 AM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russia and Ukraine battle daily in the sky. So where are the pilots?
This Russian tactic is also forcing Ukraine to make a tough choice. Ukraine has a limited number of air defense missiles, which it's been using to take down Russian drones. Yet Russia gets these drones from Iran, perhaps for as little as $20,000. It's a cost-benefit ratio that favors Russia.posted by srboisvert at 10:05 AM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
If Ukraine exhausts its supply of missiles while targeting Russian drones and missiles, that could clear the way for Russian pilots in fighter jets to return to Ukraine, with a greatly reduced threat of being shot down.
Russian soldiers are attacking fortified positions in Ukraine armed with shovels, according to a new report from the British Ministry of Defense.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 10:38 AM on March 8, 2023
posted by 1970s Antihero at 10:38 AM on March 8, 2023
Prigozhin makes an video announcement out of Bachmut "specially for (the) New York Times". In short: very soon Russia will bring out its highly trained soldiers with modern weaponry Ukraine has not even encountered yet. He appears to feel insulted that Times journalists apparently consider Bachmut a possible end for Wagner (I have not read the original NYT piece).
He does not specify what these new weapons are.
posted by UN at 2:00 PM on March 8, 2023
He does not specify what these new weapons are.
posted by UN at 2:00 PM on March 8, 2023
UN: He does not specify what these new weapons are.
https://twitter.com/MarianKamensky1/status/1632687494813679618/photo/1
posted by Stoneshop at 2:37 PM on March 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
https://twitter.com/MarianKamensky1/status/1632687494813679618/photo/1
posted by Stoneshop at 2:37 PM on March 8, 2023 [2 favorites]
srboisvert: If Ukraine exhausts its supply of missiles while targeting Russian drones and missiles,
Gepards have shown themselves to be quite the right tool to take down Shaheds, and Germany has just sent a few more Ukraine's way.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:49 PM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
Gepards have shown themselves to be quite the right tool to take down Shaheds, and Germany has just sent a few more Ukraine's way.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:49 PM on March 8, 2023 [1 favorite]
And it's clear the Russians have evidence Ukrainians are running out of ammo; they're now using screwdriver bits
posted by Stoneshop at 12:06 AM on March 9, 2023
⚡⚡⚡ The bullet that was extracted from the Fedor boy is NATO-marked 😱.But it is definitely not US ammo as those would be Phillips, not flatblade. And Canadian would be Robertson.
This proves once again that the attack by the Ukrainian DRG in Bryansk Oblast was carefully planned in the USA!
That's Chromium-Vanadium 3. A supersectional armour-piercing ultrasonic bullet.
Miraculously survived.
Bullets like that blow populated areas off the face of the earth. And here a child's body stopped an enemy projectile.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:06 AM on March 9, 2023
Some of you may remember the public diary kept by Ukrainian author Yevgenia Belorusets in Kyiv during the first weeks of the war, but it’s been published recently in English and German. In Germany it was published by Der Spiegel, and a week ago it was quoted by Olaf Scholz at the beginning and end of a speech to the German parliament justifying continued German support for Ukraine.
posted by Kattullus at 12:08 AM on March 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 12:08 AM on March 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
Anarchist magazine Freedom has short essays by eight Ukrainian women who are on the frontlines of war. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 AM on March 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
1 year at full-scale war.This is by “Bat”, the pseudonym of a soldier in the Ukrainian armed forces.
Although, 9 years since it all started with the massacre at Maidan and the escape of our former Russ-simp president Yanukovich.
Of course, I felt an increase of anxiety in me and our society around these days (and it’s still there). Russians are known to be obsessed with numbers, so we were expecting an escalation of terror in exactly a year after the full-scale invasion. Also, our minds and bodies are in distress because of retraumatization. To save my sanity in these challenging times, personally I was trying to focus on the fact that most of my closest ones have SURVIVED this year.
Moreover, now I feel much more powerful than in 2022, because I’m a part of the organized and supplied resistance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Sooo… I know it’s not the end of it, not even close, and that’s frustrating for sure, because I hoped this shit was gonna stay in history books and never come out again. And if it happened, it would be stopped immediately.
But geopolitics doesn’t work like that.
So I just have to continue my resistance and try to be not hard-strong, but resilient.
Luckily, as a human rights activist, I kinda know something about it.
Moreover, thanks to my personal experience and the support of my fem/lgbtiq+ sisters* and brothers*, I never feel alone and I am getting all best military supplies and lil’ heart-warming souvenirs.
And I’m pleased that Ukraine’s resistance against the terrorist “Russian state” is still getting a lot of attention worldwide, and our refugees are taken good care of. Thank you for supporting Ukraine in our anti-imperialistic battle!
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 AM on March 9, 2023 [3 favorites]
From the "you can't make this shit up" department:
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is blocking the Biden administration from sharing evidence with the International Criminal Court in The Hague gathered by American intelligence agencies about Russian atrocities in Ukraine, according to current and former officials briefed on the matter.posted by kmt at 5:28 AM on March 9, 2023 [4 favorites]
American military leaders oppose helping the court investigate Russians because they fear setting a precedent that might help pave the way for it to prosecute Americans.
Pentagon Blocks Sharing Evidence of Possible Russian War Crimes With Hague Court, NYT
A brief moment of a Russian soldier showing some sanity, but then dropping back to brainwashed robot mode: a close combat exchange between an Ukrainian and a Russian.
Just verbal until 1:30, after that gunshots and explosions. Very little actually visible, it's inside a damaged building.
The (transcribed, translated) verbal part:
RU: "Brother, I at least came here to make things right"
UA: "(unintelligible) So you came to my house to make things right? You came to my house, where there are my rules, to tell me how to live? I'm in my home, not in yours, not in your kitchen, room, I'm not telling you where to shit and throw the trash, You're trying to tell me how to eat, how to shit. I'm at home, you're not."
RU: "Yeah, I understand where you're coming from, but if the people (unintelligible, explosion) in the neighboring cities..."
UA: "Fucking think about it, you're living in a (apartment block), go to your neighbor, beat him up saying "You're eating wrong, bitch. And your fucking kitchen is now mine. Just because you're eating wrong". Is that fucking normal?"
RU: "Well, i can kinda understand you see it..."
UA: "Well that's how I see it all. You fucking came to us to make things right your way"
RU: "unintelligible, swearing Shut your fucking face up (?). What would you do yourself (in our place?)"
UA: "Don't worry, we can beat up those that need it, we don't shy away from it."
RU: "(unintelligible)"
UA: "And would've done the same to Yanukovich, but the fucker escaped"
posted by Stoneshop at 7:06 AM on March 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
Just verbal until 1:30, after that gunshots and explosions. Very little actually visible, it's inside a damaged building.
The (transcribed, translated) verbal part:
RU: "Brother, I at least came here to make things right"
UA: "(unintelligible) So you came to my house to make things right? You came to my house, where there are my rules, to tell me how to live? I'm in my home, not in yours, not in your kitchen, room, I'm not telling you where to shit and throw the trash, You're trying to tell me how to eat, how to shit. I'm at home, you're not."
RU: "Yeah, I understand where you're coming from, but if the people (unintelligible, explosion) in the neighboring cities..."
UA: "Fucking think about it, you're living in a (apartment block), go to your neighbor, beat him up saying "You're eating wrong, bitch. And your fucking kitchen is now mine. Just because you're eating wrong". Is that fucking normal?"
RU: "Well, i can kinda understand you see it..."
UA: "Well that's how I see it all. You fucking came to us to make things right your way"
RU: "unintelligible, swearing Shut your fucking face up (?). What would you do yourself (in our place?)"
UA: "Don't worry, we can beat up those that need it, we don't shy away from it."
RU: "(unintelligible)"
UA: "And would've done the same to Yanukovich, but the fucker escaped"
posted by Stoneshop at 7:06 AM on March 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
"And would've done the same to Yanukovich, but the fucker escaped"
I feel this sums up the difference between the average Ukrainian and the average Russian in profound ways. The idea that their leaders only rule over them with their consent and any that step out of line Ukrainians will stop, as opposed to the Russian attitude that they have no power or responsibility whatsoever.
posted by tavella at 8:52 AM on March 9, 2023 [9 favorites]
I feel this sums up the difference between the average Ukrainian and the average Russian in profound ways. The idea that their leaders only rule over them with their consent and any that step out of line Ukrainians will stop, as opposed to the Russian attitude that they have no power or responsibility whatsoever.
posted by tavella at 8:52 AM on March 9, 2023 [9 favorites]
It's a perpetual mystery to me what people see in Putin. You see it in the daily videos groups of Russian soldiers put on the internet (just search for 'Russian soldiers complain' on the bird site or elsewhere for those interested). They complain about their lack of weapons, the tactics, the corruption and so on. They make an appeal to Putin himself: if he can just see their video, he'll see what trouble they're in and sort things out. In a twisted way it's hilarious; but mostly — almost disappointingly — pathetic. They don't see him as the ultimate embodiment of corruption and greed that put them in the position they're in. To them, the problem isn't Putin, it's the implementation of Putin. Russia has a problem with middle managers mucking up his vision, that's all.
It reminds me of a conversation I had on a bus with a young woman from the far east of Russia who had Korean roots some 15 years ago. On the topic of Putin she said 'Well, at least we have Putin! Do you like Putin?" The moment of awkward silence after my "No" confused me at the time. Why would anyone like him, especially way out east?
Well, in hindsight, people do. In both Russia and elsewhere there's a sort of positive spin on this: people are apolitical, they know resistance is futile, etc. But a very large chunk of the population, they are, unfortunately, fans.
Ukraine must win.
posted by UN at 12:34 PM on March 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
It reminds me of a conversation I had on a bus with a young woman from the far east of Russia who had Korean roots some 15 years ago. On the topic of Putin she said 'Well, at least we have Putin! Do you like Putin?" The moment of awkward silence after my "No" confused me at the time. Why would anyone like him, especially way out east?
Well, in hindsight, people do. In both Russia and elsewhere there's a sort of positive spin on this: people are apolitical, they know resistance is futile, etc. But a very large chunk of the population, they are, unfortunately, fans.
Ukraine must win.
posted by UN at 12:34 PM on March 9, 2023 [6 favorites]
It's a perpetual mystery to me what people see in Putin.
When your whole identity of success is down to being a mediocre straight white guy one tends to gravitate towards people who will use whatever means they have to enforce a social hierarchy where they're on top.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:39 PM on March 9, 2023
When your whole identity of success is down to being a mediocre straight white guy one tends to gravitate towards people who will use whatever means they have to enforce a social hierarchy where they're on top.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:39 PM on March 9, 2023
Hasn't Putin built himself into a sort of comic book hero figure within the Russian Federation? Like he has those photos of him shirtless being sporty and hyper masculine, and he also does those hours-long call-in marathons where he takes on the problems of ordinary Russians to solve them. Of course the soldiers think if he could just see the video things would be fixed. He's established himself in that role for the country for decades.
posted by hippybear at 12:40 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 12:40 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
It's a grand Russian tradition - appeal to the good tsar to protect from the bad boyars / councillors. This way you're not undermining his divine mandate while still complaining. (Also somewhat present in China, but thankfully they had the balancing belief that when the country was badly run, that meant the emperor lost the divine mandate and it was free for the taking.)
This predictably goes over like a lead balloon in countries with traditions of elective rulers, like Ukraine and Poland...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on March 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
This predictably goes over like a lead balloon in countries with traditions of elective rulers, like Ukraine and Poland...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:45 PM on March 9, 2023 [5 favorites]
What will the war bring in 2023? Illia Ponomarenko interviews Michael Kofman and Rob Lee in Kyiv.
posted by UN at 1:19 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by UN at 1:19 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
To them, the problem isn't Putin, it's the implementation of Putin. Russia has a problem with middle managers mucking up his vision, that's all.
Well, I'm not sure they're not wrong about Russian middle management. Both can be problems.
posted by pwnguin at 3:01 PM on March 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, I'm not sure they're not wrong about Russian middle management. Both can be problems.
posted by pwnguin at 3:01 PM on March 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
"If only the Tsar knew!" is a very old joke, that isn't really a joke, about what Russian peasants would say when a local official oppressed them. The assumption being that the Tsar wasn't in fact the apex of that oppression, but instead a heroic father figure who would save them from it if he only was aware of it.
Evidently not much has changed in Russia.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 7:11 PM on March 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Evidently not much has changed in Russia.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 7:11 PM on March 9, 2023 [2 favorites]
Another factor is that in a country plagued by defeatism and alcoholism, Putin looks good in that he drinks only very moderately, and is disciplined and takes care of himself physically. That plays well with the typical woman voter.
posted by Harald74 at 9:25 PM on March 9, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 9:25 PM on March 9, 2023
And they did the same thing with Stalin. Not sure if it is people really believing it, or practicing doublethink, or what. Strange mental gymnastics required to live in that sort of authoritarian regime. Only naive and stupid people* will out and out tell you what they really think when it comes to political critique.
*or old people, people out of fucks, etc. ymmv.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:27 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
*or old people, people out of fucks, etc. ymmv.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:27 PM on March 9, 2023 [1 favorite]
American military leaders oppose helping the court investigate Russians because they fear setting a precedent that might help pave the way for it to prosecute Americans.
Tell me that the US regularly commits atrocities without telling me the US regularly commits atrocities.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 12:55 AM on March 10, 2023 [11 favorites]
Tell me that the US regularly commits atrocities without telling me the US regularly commits atrocities.
posted by Pyrogenesis at 12:55 AM on March 10, 2023 [11 favorites]
You mean the country with a Hague Invasion Law on its books commits atrocities? Quelle shock.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:09 AM on March 10, 2023
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:09 AM on March 10, 2023
Reading reports of Russia using new high-tech weapons like ultrasonic missiles on Ukraine. Seems a bit overpowered to be using in this conflict. Is Russia trying to be all "look at what we have" with these as demonstration strikes, or are they running out of weapons so now they're using their more precious toys?
posted by hippybear at 8:52 AM on March 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 8:52 AM on March 11, 2023 [2 favorites]
So, if you're a Russian soldier in the occupied, sorry, 'liberated' Ukrainian territory, and you're involved in an incident you have to identify yourself as a Wagner mercenary.
The various factions fighting on the Russian side clearly don't like each other very much nowadays.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:44 AM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
The various factions fighting on the Russian side clearly don't like each other very much nowadays.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:44 AM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
hippybear: Is Russia trying to be all "look at what we have" with these as demonstration strikes, or are they running out of weapons so now they're using their more precious toys?
Both, I guess. In their own view Russia can't be seen to lose as that would just be impossible, unimaginable; both not against Ukraine with NATO backing, nor straight against NATO should it come to that. So ultimately they'll just throw anything, including freshly-looted kitchen sinks, into battle.
It doesn't really help that they don't have much of a coherent tactical and strategical plan, the number of experienced soldiers and officers has decreased dramatically with even colonels and generals having been killed in astounding numbers, and the C-i-C for the forces in the western sector has been replaced at least twice.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:02 PM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Both, I guess. In their own view Russia can't be seen to lose as that would just be impossible, unimaginable; both not against Ukraine with NATO backing, nor straight against NATO should it come to that. So ultimately they'll just throw anything, including freshly-looted kitchen sinks, into battle.
It doesn't really help that they don't have much of a coherent tactical and strategical plan, the number of experienced soldiers and officers has decreased dramatically with even colonels and generals having been killed in astounding numbers, and the C-i-C for the forces in the western sector has been replaced at least twice.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:02 PM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
The various factions fighting on the Russian side clearly don't like each other very much nowadays.
They army doesn't even like their own soldiers (as if that wasn't clear already). Get caught up in an incident? You're not our responsibility. You're obviously not going to get help from Wagner. Ie: you're on your own.
posted by UN at 1:03 PM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
They army doesn't even like their own soldiers (as if that wasn't clear already). Get caught up in an incident? You're not our responsibility. You're obviously not going to get help from Wagner. Ie: you're on your own.
posted by UN at 1:03 PM on March 11, 2023 [1 favorite]
Substack: Gerjon’s Aircraft Finds: The War in Ukraine: Iran's Airlift to Russia
posted by srboisvert at 2:21 PM on March 11, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 2:21 PM on March 11, 2023
Is Russia trying to be all "look at what we have" with these as demonstration strikes, or are they running out of weapons so now they're using their more precious toys?
Ukraine's ground based air defense has gone through the roof lately thanks to getting state of the art equipment from every NATO country and some non-NATO countries as well so the cheaper Russian stuff was getting less and less effective.
posted by srboisvert at 2:45 PM on March 11, 2023
Ukraine's ground based air defense has gone through the roof lately thanks to getting state of the art equipment from every NATO country and some non-NATO countries as well so the cheaper Russian stuff was getting less and less effective.
posted by srboisvert at 2:45 PM on March 11, 2023
In Ukraine, mud season has sprung.
(that last video is marked NSFW, but apart from ungentle handling of a Wagner POW there's no violence, nor gore or death)
posted by Stoneshop at 6:00 AM on March 12, 2023
(that last video is marked NSFW, but apart from ungentle handling of a Wagner POW there's no violence, nor gore or death)
posted by Stoneshop at 6:00 AM on March 12, 2023
(that last video is marked NSFW, but apart from ungentle handling of a Wagner POW there's no violence, nor gore or death)
The part 1 of that video has the NSFW section, where two Russian soldiers are ambushed and this one survives and is taken prisoner. It's an amazing video, filmed in its entirety from a low altitude drone, but like so many of the videos that are released, you are seeing real people being injured and killed.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:47 AM on March 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
The part 1 of that video has the NSFW section, where two Russian soldiers are ambushed and this one survives and is taken prisoner. It's an amazing video, filmed in its entirety from a low altitude drone, but like so many of the videos that are released, you are seeing real people being injured and killed.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:47 AM on March 12, 2023 [2 favorites]
Task & Purpose: Vuhledar Blunder, Why Russia Repeats the Same Mistakes
Russian Armed Forces lost 130 armored vehicles and tanks in Ukraine while the focus was on Bakhmut. Why is Putin's army making the same mistakes they made a year ago? Wagner Mercenaries combined with the Donetsk Peoples Republic army are not sharing standard operating procedures. President Zellensky is determined to hold onto this fortress city while new western tanks arrive.posted by srboisvert at 10:13 AM on March 12, 2023 [3 favorites]
Economist: How Ukraine tamed Russian missile barrages and kept the lights on
As winter ends, Russia has lost this phase of the conflict
As winter ends, Russia has lost this phase of the conflict
The latest rocket attack, in the early hours of March 9th, saw Russia target hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of missiles on critical infrastructure. It tested the tenacity of energy planners for the 15th time this winter. But with most of the country swiftly brought back on line, it did not change the fundamentals; Ukraine is still winning a historical battle in which few had expected it to prevail. Engineers are now repairing the system faster than it can be destroyed. Prior to the latest attack, Kyiv had enjoyed four consecutive weeks with no outages. The use by Russia of hard-to-replace Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles at the end of winter would appear to indicate increasing desperation in Moscow.posted by srboisvert at 4:01 AM on March 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
An English summary of an interview with @TarasChmut by @mil_in_ua recently.
posted by Harald74 at 6:14 AM on March 13, 2023
posted by Harald74 at 6:14 AM on March 13, 2023
There's some interesting follow-up on the Nordstream bombing investigations in this Guardian story (seems to be summarizing this from Spiegel). German authorities are saying a particular rental yacht was used in the attacks, but some commentators think it would be hard to fit enough bombs on a boat like that, and the attacks would have required a decompression chamber (also wouldn't fit).
posted by grobstein at 1:23 PM on March 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by grobstein at 1:23 PM on March 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
Signs your invasion isn't going as planned:
Google Translate: Moscow parks have their forests cut down to improve air defense radar sightlines.
Original: https://theins.ru/politika/259760
posted by srboisvert at 2:18 PM on March 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
Google Translate: Moscow parks have their forests cut down to improve air defense radar sightlines.
Original: https://theins.ru/politika/259760
posted by srboisvert at 2:18 PM on March 13, 2023 [1 favorite]
srboisvert: Moscow parks have their forests cut down to improve air defense radar sightlines.
Dunno, but I would have put radar on top of the buildings they put their AA missiles on, and those somewhere at ground level. Easier to resupply the launchers, and with a lot of AA the missile is launched almost straight up at first anyway, then after a few seconds it rotates and starts towards the target so it hardly needs a free sightline. AA artillery would, but while I haven't seen those being deployed they may well be.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:34 PM on March 13, 2023
Dunno, but I would have put radar on top of the buildings they put their AA missiles on, and those somewhere at ground level. Easier to resupply the launchers, and with a lot of AA the missile is launched almost straight up at first anyway, then after a few seconds it rotates and starts towards the target so it hardly needs a free sightline. AA artillery would, but while I haven't seen those being deployed they may well be.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:34 PM on March 13, 2023
How much aerial attack is taking place in Moscow that is leading them to cut down trees for defense radar? I mean, if it's a shitton, then good on the Ukrainians. But this feels... like planning for a thing that isn't happening?
posted by hippybear at 2:45 PM on March 13, 2023
posted by hippybear at 2:45 PM on March 13, 2023
But this feels... like planning for a thing that isn't happening?
Well, there have been a few long-distance drones taken down sufficiently far from the Ukrainian border that Muscovites may well start to feel a bit uneasy, which is probably exactly what launching those drones tried to achieve.
Actual, massive drone attack waves to follow? I don't think so.
This is 99% propaganda aimed at the Russian population. "We do have the stuff to protect you, you can see we actually have it and we're using it. All those rumours about corruption, equipment not working and gone missing are just that, rumours." plus "Sign up for military service, as you can see we're under attack and we need you."
posted by Stoneshop at 3:42 PM on March 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
Well, there have been a few long-distance drones taken down sufficiently far from the Ukrainian border that Muscovites may well start to feel a bit uneasy, which is probably exactly what launching those drones tried to achieve.
Actual, massive drone attack waves to follow? I don't think so.
This is 99% propaganda aimed at the Russian population. "We do have the stuff to protect you, you can see we actually have it and we're using it. All those rumours about corruption, equipment not working and gone missing are just that, rumours." plus "Sign up for military service, as you can see we're under attack and we need you."
posted by Stoneshop at 3:42 PM on March 13, 2023 [2 favorites]
But this feels... like planning for a thing that isn't happening?
It's a propaganda exercise, at least in part. Create (or attempt to create) a siege mentality in a place where people are otherwise not under attack.
As a propaganda goal, it serves purposes like upping the conscription age:
A group of State Duma deputies headed by the Security Committee Chair Andrey Kartapolov have presented a bill to raise the maximal conscription age for serving in the Russian army to 30 years, instead of 27 under the current law.
The bill to amend Russia’s conscription law will expand eligibility for mandatory army service in the short run, by raising the maximal conscription age immediately, while raising the minimal age requirement from 18 to 21 in three stages, scheduled to take place between 2024 and 2026.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:00 PM on March 13, 2023
It's a propaganda exercise, at least in part. Create (or attempt to create) a siege mentality in a place where people are otherwise not under attack.
As a propaganda goal, it serves purposes like upping the conscription age:
A group of State Duma deputies headed by the Security Committee Chair Andrey Kartapolov have presented a bill to raise the maximal conscription age for serving in the Russian army to 30 years, instead of 27 under the current law.
The bill to amend Russia’s conscription law will expand eligibility for mandatory army service in the short run, by raising the maximal conscription age immediately, while raising the minimal age requirement from 18 to 21 in three stages, scheduled to take place between 2024 and 2026.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 5:00 PM on March 13, 2023
The list of Russian allies grows shorter again:
Serbian economy minister Rade Basta called for sanctions to be imposed against Russia. Basta said Serbia, which has traditionally had a close relationship with Russia, had paid a “high price” for having delayed.
posted by Harald74 at 2:46 AM on March 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
Serbian economy minister Rade Basta called for sanctions to be imposed against Russia. Basta said Serbia, which has traditionally had a close relationship with Russia, had paid a “high price” for having delayed.
posted by Harald74 at 2:46 AM on March 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
Cracks starting to show between Prigozhin and Putin, with maybe Wagner Group losing support from the government and being allowed to just be meat fodder now.
posted by hippybear at 7:38 AM on March 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 7:38 AM on March 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
Russian jet harasses and then collides with U.S. Reaper drone over Black Sea
posted by MrVisible at 11:18 AM on March 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by MrVisible at 11:18 AM on March 14, 2023 [2 favorites]
I've been fascinated by the psychology/reasoning of the people who remain behind in apocalyptic warzones despite offers to evacuate like the 4000 people who remain in Bahkmut. I've kind of assumed those who remain in Ukrainian controlled areas are probably largely pro-Russian.
I now know the answer for some of them:
GuardianUK: Russian soldier who hid from Ukrainian forces for six months arrested: The 42-year-old serviceman had reportedly been hiding in abandoned buildings after liberation of Kharkiv.
posted by srboisvert at 1:08 PM on March 14, 2023 [3 favorites]
I now know the answer for some of them:
GuardianUK: Russian soldier who hid from Ukrainian forces for six months arrested: The 42-year-old serviceman had reportedly been hiding in abandoned buildings after liberation of Kharkiv.
posted by srboisvert at 1:08 PM on March 14, 2023 [3 favorites]
I wonder if they'll start loading sidewinder air-to-air missiles onto Reaper drones now.
posted by mikelieman at 4:12 PM on March 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by mikelieman at 4:12 PM on March 14, 2023 [1 favorite]
I wonder if they'll start loading sidewinder air-to-air missiles onto Reaper drones now.
I think the better response is to give Ukraine missiles that put Russia's Crimean airbases and ports with range.
posted by srboisvert at 5:18 PM on March 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
I think the better response is to give Ukraine missiles that put Russia's Crimean airbases and ports with range.
posted by srboisvert at 5:18 PM on March 14, 2023 [5 favorites]
Ukrainian "technicals" get an MLRS upgrade.
posted by srboisvert at 1:08 AM on March 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
posted by srboisvert at 1:08 AM on March 15, 2023 [3 favorites]
PBS: Haas Automation possibly caught deliberately violating the sanctions by providing high end machining to Russian military manufacturing firms since 2014.
Discovered by Ukrainian business analysts because the Russian government published the procurement orders!
Gene Haas is already a felon - previously pled guilty and jailed for tax evasion and fined $75 million in 2006.
posted by srboisvert at 3:21 AM on March 15, 2023
Discovered by Ukrainian business analysts because the Russian government published the procurement orders!
Gene Haas is already a felon - previously pled guilty and jailed for tax evasion and fined $75 million in 2006.
posted by srboisvert at 3:21 AM on March 15, 2023
Poland May Give Ukraine MiG-29 Jets in Next 4-6 Weeks, Says PM: "suggesting that Kyiv's allies were moving closer to an agreement on the next step in their military support for the country."
> The list of Russian allies grows shorter again:
Further U.S. involvement in Ukraine is not vital national interest, says DeSantis: "While the U.S. has many vital national interests ... becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them."
posted by kliuless at 7:37 AM on March 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
> The list of Russian allies grows shorter again:
Further U.S. involvement in Ukraine is not vital national interest, says DeSantis: "While the U.S. has many vital national interests ... becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them."
posted by kliuless at 7:37 AM on March 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
Some further context on DeSantis is that he used to be a Russia Hawk.
So either he is following the "Everything Democrats do is bad" Republican playbook of the recent era or he is positioning himself to be the recipient of Russia covert election assistance. Or both.
posted by srboisvert at 8:21 AM on March 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
So either he is following the "Everything Democrats do is bad" Republican playbook of the recent era or he is positioning himself to be the recipient of Russia covert election assistance. Or both.
posted by srboisvert at 8:21 AM on March 15, 2023 [2 favorites]
It does seem to me that any Russian recovery of the US drone will be sitting ducks for Ukrainian torpedoes ...
posted by mbo at 10:37 PM on March 15, 2023
posted by mbo at 10:37 PM on March 15, 2023
Footage of the Russian SU27 downing the U.S. drone over the Black Sea.
I wouldn't know how to judge the amount, but it looks like a lot of jet fuel was dumped into the sea.
posted by UN at 4:02 AM on March 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
I wouldn't know how to judge the amount, but it looks like a lot of jet fuel was dumped into the sea.
posted by UN at 4:02 AM on March 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
Twitter @ian_matveev In Rostov-on-Don, the FSB building is on fire, they write that after the explosion
posted by srboisvert at 6:32 AM on March 16, 2023
posted by srboisvert at 6:32 AM on March 16, 2023
Twitter: Internal Security Agency has detained 9 people suspected of collaborating with the Russian special services. The suspects conducted intelligence activities against Poland And prepared an act of diversion commissioned by Russian intelligence. Saboteur attacks against railways leading to Ukraine
posted by srboisvert at 6:40 AM on March 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
mbo: Russian recovery of the US drone
Russia reports that an undersea robot has located the Reaper at a depth of 800-900m, but as usual this news should be taken with seventeen gigapinches of salt. Both US and RU sources do mention the incident having taken place "near Sevastopol", where "near" probably should be read as "less than halfway across the Black Sea from Sevastopol to the Romanian coast". They also refer to the South Stream pipe line, a gas transport line that was never built, but they could be using this name to refer to the Turkstream pipe line whose name sounds less glamorous for Russia.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:12 AM on March 16, 2023
Russia reports that an undersea robot has located the Reaper at a depth of 800-900m, but as usual this news should be taken with seventeen gigapinches of salt. Both US and RU sources do mention the incident having taken place "near Sevastopol", where "near" probably should be read as "less than halfway across the Black Sea from Sevastopol to the Romanian coast". They also refer to the South Stream pipe line, a gas transport line that was never built, but they could be using this name to refer to the Turkstream pipe line whose name sounds less glamorous for Russia.
Беспилотник США MQ-9 Reaper найден у Севастополя на глубине около 900 метров, об этом ForPost сообщил собственный источник, близкий к Минобороны РФ и знакомый с деталями операции.But putting those bits of info together the location would be 300-350km from Odesa, which is definitely outside torpedo range. Ukraine could try firing Neptune missiles at the surface vessel(s) involved, but it remains to be seen if they will.
В районе падения американского военно-разведывательного аппарата дежурят силы ВМФ России. «На дно моря опустился подводный робот, который обнаружил MQ-9 Reaper на глубине около 850–900 метров. Недалеко от этой зоны проходит глубоководная ветка газопровода «Южный поток»», сообщил собеседник ForPost.
A US MQ-9 Reaper drone has been found near Sevastopol at a depth of about 900 metres, a source close to the Russian Defence Ministry and familiar with the details of the operation has told ForPost.
Russian naval forces are on duty in the area where the US military reconnaissance vehicle fell. "An underwater robot has descended to the seabed and detected the MQ-9 Reaper at a depth of about 850-900 metres. The deep-water branch of the South Stream gas pipeline runs not far from this area," the ForPost interlocutor said.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
posted by Stoneshop at 9:12 AM on March 16, 2023
Some more video footage from that FSB fire in Rostov:
Deadly explosion rips through spy agency building in Russian city near Ukrainian border
RU: Additional direct view of the FSB fire in Rostov. Seemingly intensifying.
RU: Reported ammunition is cooking off in the FSB building.The fire has gotten much larger.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:32 AM on March 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Deadly explosion rips through spy agency building in Russian city near Ukrainian border
RU: Additional direct view of the FSB fire in Rostov. Seemingly intensifying.
RU: Reported ammunition is cooking off in the FSB building.The fire has gotten much larger.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:32 AM on March 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Poland to send Ukraine four MiG-29 jets in coming days
posted by kliuless at 11:23 AM on March 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by kliuless at 11:23 AM on March 16, 2023 [1 favorite]
Some further context on DeSantis is that he used to be a Russia Hawk.
To be fair to DeSantis, his position on wiping out queer and trans people aligns with Putin's.
As a bit of context here, this is a breakdown of government support to Ukraine, as a percentage of GDP. Those numbers exclude the EU component that's also attributable to those countries (where applicable).
Estonia is contributing over 1 per cent of its GDP (this is huge - and remember, Estonia's population is around 1.3 million), with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland not too far behind. The reason this level of support is politically palatable is that the threat is very real when it's on your literal border (Lithuania's close enough for rock n' roll, plus there's fuckin' Belarus), and there are plenty of people in all three countries with living memories of what Soviet subjugation was like, and a clear-eyed perspective on what's at stake now.
The U.S., U.K., and Canada are at 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 per cent of GDP, respectively.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:38 PM on March 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
To be fair to DeSantis, his position on wiping out queer and trans people aligns with Putin's.
As a bit of context here, this is a breakdown of government support to Ukraine, as a percentage of GDP. Those numbers exclude the EU component that's also attributable to those countries (where applicable).
Estonia is contributing over 1 per cent of its GDP (this is huge - and remember, Estonia's population is around 1.3 million), with Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland not too far behind. The reason this level of support is politically palatable is that the threat is very real when it's on your literal border (Lithuania's close enough for rock n' roll, plus there's fuckin' Belarus), and there are plenty of people in all three countries with living memories of what Soviet subjugation was like, and a clear-eyed perspective on what's at stake now.
The U.S., U.K., and Canada are at 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 per cent of GDP, respectively.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 2:38 PM on March 16, 2023 [6 favorites]
BBC: Bakhmut: Russian casualties mount but tactics evolve
A few interesting weird little bits in this story in addition to the disturbing but predicable details of Russia adopting Ukrainian drone tactics:
Ukraine is using Maxim machine guns from WWI with forged iron wheels!
A few interesting weird little bits in this story in addition to the disturbing but predicable details of Russia adopting Ukrainian drone tactics:
Ukraine is using Maxim machine guns from WWI with forged iron wheels!
"It only works when there is a massive attack going on…then it really works," says Borys. "So we use it every week".Drones only work if it is not windy or rainy.
And this is how the battle for Bakhmut is being fought, as winter turns to spring in 21st Century Europe. A 19th Century weapon still mows down men by the score in the black Ukrainian earth.
"Today's war is a drone war," he says, "but we can walk around freely, because there's wind and rain today and drones are blown away. If it was quiet today, both our drones and our enemy's would be hovering over us."posted by srboisvert at 4:35 PM on March 16, 2023 [3 favorites]
On the way back, Oleg brings the jeep to a sudden halt. Lying in the dirt in front of us is a drone that has been blown off course. Its battery is quickly removed and it is brought inside - it turns out to be Ukrainian.
"So we use it every week."
Like, so, is this because it really works well when the gun heats up so you're running it a bunch and it all stays hot? And I'd assume, if you use is less, the metal is heating up less or less evenly and it is jamming more frequently.
posted by hippybear at 4:54 PM on March 16, 2023
Like, so, is this because it really works well when the gun heats up so you're running it a bunch and it all stays hot? And I'd assume, if you use is less, the metal is heating up less or less evenly and it is jamming more frequently.
posted by hippybear at 4:54 PM on March 16, 2023
I read it as more in the nature of a punchline -- the gun "only" works effectively during a massive attack, but that's OK because massive attacks are at least a weekly occurrence.
posted by Not A Thing at 5:12 PM on March 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by Not A Thing at 5:12 PM on March 16, 2023 [5 favorites]
Low accuracy but high rate of witheringly destructive fire. Works well when there is a massed attack and one can't really miss.
posted by porpoise at 5:30 PM on March 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by porpoise at 5:30 PM on March 16, 2023 [2 favorites]
hippybear: Like, so, is this because it really works well when the gun heats up so you're running it a bunch and it all stays hot?
Actually, the Maxim doesn't really care about the amount of use it gets, as long as you keep the coolant water topped up. The British army did a test once and kept firing it for a week pretty much non-stop, with only the barrel (which wears from the rounds fired) being changed as required. Apart from the barrels, no other parts failed or had even worn beyond spec.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:11 AM on March 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Actually, the Maxim doesn't really care about the amount of use it gets, as long as you keep the coolant water topped up. The British army did a test once and kept firing it for a week pretty much non-stop, with only the barrel (which wears from the rounds fired) being changed as required. Apart from the barrels, no other parts failed or had even worn beyond spec.
posted by Stoneshop at 6:11 AM on March 17, 2023 [1 favorite]
Turkey and Hungary have both announced that they will begin ratifying Finland’s accession to NATO. No word yet on Sweden.
posted by Kattullus at 1:46 PM on March 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 1:46 PM on March 17, 2023 [6 favorites]
Task and Purpose has been doing excellent videos. Foriegn Soldiers in Ukraine.
There's that and perun. Other video recommedations?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:18 AM on March 18, 2023
There's that and perun. Other video recommedations?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 2:18 AM on March 18, 2023
I quite liked this video presenting a refutation of realism in international relations:
Kraut: a Critique of Realism
The video seems to me well argued, and convincent, but I will disclose that I am biased in favor of Ukraine, so this video is telling me what I want to hear. I haven't looked at the rest of the channel, and am not an expert in political science.
So, caveat emptor.
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 2:57 AM on March 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Kraut: a Critique of Realism
The video seems to me well argued, and convincent, but I will disclose that I am biased in favor of Ukraine, so this video is telling me what I want to hear. I haven't looked at the rest of the channel, and am not an expert in political science.
So, caveat emptor.
posted by LaVidaEsUnCarnaval at 2:57 AM on March 18, 2023 [2 favorites]
Other video recommedations?
I like Suchomimus for explanations, without any rah rah, of the kind of short videos of war machines being destroyed that get posted on reddit.
I used to follow a couple of what I think of as Game Chair Map Guys who do daily or near daily updates on movements at the front with drone or go pro footage spliced in but it all started to feel a bit too repetitive and also a bit like they were starting to paint false propaganda pictures. Guys like Military & History, Jake Broe.
TVP World: Military Mind is a Polish broadcaster/propaganda channel that is a kind of fascinating aggregator of video clips with a comically overdone studio set (be aware that the video title typically only references one short segment out of many shown per show - it is not a theme or anything).
I also like the BBC correspondent videos and the Sky News analysis segments (though these are very very basic and tend to obviously political/propaganda talking points but it is still useful to hear what NATO wants us to hear).
posted by srboisvert at 5:26 PM on March 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
I like Suchomimus for explanations, without any rah rah, of the kind of short videos of war machines being destroyed that get posted on reddit.
I used to follow a couple of what I think of as Game Chair Map Guys who do daily or near daily updates on movements at the front with drone or go pro footage spliced in but it all started to feel a bit too repetitive and also a bit like they were starting to paint false propaganda pictures. Guys like Military & History, Jake Broe.
TVP World: Military Mind is a Polish broadcaster/propaganda channel that is a kind of fascinating aggregator of video clips with a comically overdone studio set (be aware that the video title typically only references one short segment out of many shown per show - it is not a theme or anything).
I also like the BBC correspondent videos and the Sky News analysis segments (though these are very very basic and tend to obviously political/propaganda talking points but it is still useful to hear what NATO wants us to hear).
posted by srboisvert at 5:26 PM on March 18, 2023 [1 favorite]
Slovakia sends MIG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine - PM - "Slovakia joined Poland, which announced its delivery of the planes on Thursday."
@RonFilipkowski: "Trump says Russia is not a threat, our greatest threat is our American representatives, we need to reevaluate the purpose of NATO, and most of the people in the State Dept, DOD and Intel Services need to be fired so he can put the right people in."
@peterbakernyt: "Trump tells Hannity on his radio show that he would have been willing to let Russia 'take over' parts of Ukraine while he was president (a comment edited out when later played on Fox News)."
posted by kliuless at 4:44 AM on March 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
@RonFilipkowski: "Trump says Russia is not a threat, our greatest threat is our American representatives, we need to reevaluate the purpose of NATO, and most of the people in the State Dept, DOD and Intel Services need to be fired so he can put the right people in."
@peterbakernyt: "Trump tells Hannity on his radio show that he would have been willing to let Russia 'take over' parts of Ukraine while he was president (a comment edited out when later played on Fox News)."
posted by kliuless at 4:44 AM on March 19, 2023 [3 favorites]
Economist 1843 Magazine: Tea-breaks and terror: scenes from Ukraine’s last-ditch stand in Bakhmut. A photographer reads the mood in the Ukrainian trenches
When I first met the soldiers last April they were full of joyous patriotism. There were lots of young new recruits who had been inspired by the regiment’s heroic stand in Mariupol. Now, as the battle in Bakhmut drags on, they seem tired. They have seen people die, they have killed, they have lost brothers. I can see their hearts are heavier. But they have also become more skilled.posted by srboisvert at 9:32 AM on March 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
There is a battalion fighting alongside Ukrainian forces called Sheikh Mansur, which is made up of volunteers from Chechnya. These fighters took me into the city with them. It’s under constant shelling and now almost totally destroyed, a ghost town except for a few thousand civilians. There is a never-ending, deep sound and you can feel the air vibrating: it’s like being inside a drum. The sky is loaded with metal and there’s a sense that something might fall and hit you any moment.
Thomas C. Theiner @noclador has several really interesting twitter threads on anti-tank weaponry and tank armor.
Here's his latest on anti-tank guided missile's guidance systems.
Reading them over it does seem like Ukraine should have a more major armor advantage than I thought once they get the new tanks online.
posted by srboisvert at 12:47 PM on March 19, 2023
Here's his latest on anti-tank guided missile's guidance systems.
Reading them over it does seem like Ukraine should have a more major armor advantage than I thought once they get the new tanks online.
posted by srboisvert at 12:47 PM on March 19, 2023
Can’t read more than three tweets without an account, darn it.
posted by Quasirandom at 7:53 PM on March 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Quasirandom at 7:53 PM on March 19, 2023 [1 favorite]
Can’t read more than three tweets without an account, darn it.
Using Nitter you can. For the moment, until Muskie throws his next tantrum.
Firefox has a Nitter redirect add-on, I'd expect Chrome/ium as well.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:47 PM on March 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
Using Nitter you can. For the moment, until Muskie throws his next tantrum.
Firefox has a Nitter redirect add-on, I'd expect Chrome/ium as well.
posted by Stoneshop at 10:47 PM on March 19, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Economist: Ukraine is betting on drones to strike deep into Russia
At an early stage the Ukrainians appeared to pin hopes for controlling drones behind Russian lines on Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites, which work at frequencies and in numbers that Russian systems struggle to jam. A naval-drone attack on Russia’s Black Sea fleet in October reportedly made good use of this gap. But Mr Musk, apparently worried about the escalatory effect of such moves, has stepped in where Russian technology proved unable to. Starlink now uses geofencing to block the use of its terminals—not only above Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine, but also, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence source, over water and when the receiver is moving at speeds above 100km per hour. “You put it on a boat at sea and it will simply stop working,” he says. So Ukraine’s drone developers now use a range of other, more expensive communication systems, with multiple systems often on the same vehicle. The success of the attack on February 28th in getting so close to Moscow suggests that Ukraine may be getting close to a solution that works.posted by srboisvert at 3:58 PM on March 20, 2023 [3 favorites]
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