"Women, millennials, and “dudes with beards and tattoos.” W, M, D."
June 5, 2023 10:03 AM Subscribe
Millennials just keep voting (NYT gift). But will they move to the right (NYT gift)? Maybe (WaPo gift), maybe not (New York).
As I, decidedly older than millennial, get older I hope to hear more and more: "Passing, on your left."
posted by BigHeartedGuy at 11:46 AM on June 5, 2023 [38 favorites]
posted by BigHeartedGuy at 11:46 AM on June 5, 2023 [38 favorites]
I see the GOP playbook moving towards outright voter suppression, increasingly outside even the color of law. They know they've lost the people, and they intend to move forward without them.
posted by Countess Elena at 11:52 AM on June 5, 2023 [89 favorites]
posted by Countess Elena at 11:52 AM on June 5, 2023 [89 favorites]
People becoming more conservative this is a function of whether they have status and wealth in property to protect, and a much smaller proportion of millennials have those things compared with boomers and Gen Xers at the same age.
posted by Jon_Evil at 11:56 AM on June 5, 2023 [49 favorites]
posted by Jon_Evil at 11:56 AM on June 5, 2023 [49 favorites]
People can become more conservative just by retaining the views of their youth as the world around them advances, though. For instance, "colorblindness" used to be a liberal trait.
posted by Selena777 at 12:00 PM on June 5, 2023 [24 favorites]
posted by Selena777 at 12:00 PM on June 5, 2023 [24 favorites]
Good point. At least at the moment, that is.
posted by gottabefunky at 12:00 PM on June 5, 2023
posted by gottabefunky at 12:00 PM on June 5, 2023
"Republican" and "Democrat" do not have coherent views, except for a few tentpole national issues, so I don't see the numbers of people in each party changing particularly dramatically with millennials.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:07 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:07 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
People becoming more conservative this is a function of whether they have status and wealth in property to protect, and a much smaller proportion of millennials have those things compared with boomers and Gen Xers at the same age.
Cohorts become more conservative as their poorer (and generally more progressive) members die off.
posted by Etrigan at 12:08 PM on June 5, 2023 [42 favorites]
Cohorts become more conservative as their poorer (and generally more progressive) members die off.
posted by Etrigan at 12:08 PM on June 5, 2023 [42 favorites]
People becoming more conservative this is a function of whether they have status and wealth in property to protect, and a much smaller proportion of millennials have those things compared with boomers and Gen Xers at the same age.
To be more specific, Xers have less wealth and property than boomers, millennials have less than Xers, and zoomers have less than millennials.
As an Xer, I feel like what I have in common with the generations after mine is that we're all conscious of this sense of the progressive decline of the American dream. I know I'm much better off than many folks younger than me, and yet I'm also conscious of how much more difficult it's been for me than for many older people.
Some more enlightened boomers also understand this -- either because they personally have experienced it, or because they have the empathy and insight to recognize what's been happening to the generations after them.
But alas, other boomers assume that the status quo ante of perpetually growing, broad-based prosperity that allowed them to do better than preceding generations has continued, and that younger people who complain of hard times are just shirkers and whiners.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:09 PM on June 5, 2023 [45 favorites]
To be more specific, Xers have less wealth and property than boomers, millennials have less than Xers, and zoomers have less than millennials.
As an Xer, I feel like what I have in common with the generations after mine is that we're all conscious of this sense of the progressive decline of the American dream. I know I'm much better off than many folks younger than me, and yet I'm also conscious of how much more difficult it's been for me than for many older people.
Some more enlightened boomers also understand this -- either because they personally have experienced it, or because they have the empathy and insight to recognize what's been happening to the generations after them.
But alas, other boomers assume that the status quo ante of perpetually growing, broad-based prosperity that allowed them to do better than preceding generations has continued, and that younger people who complain of hard times are just shirkers and whiners.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:09 PM on June 5, 2023 [45 favorites]
I'm starting to wonder if "becoming more conservative" has less to do with having assets to protect as it does with becoming more fearful due to accumulated trauma. And it doesn't have to be trauma explicitly associated with whatever the political wedge issues are- just a general feeling of anxiety and unease from whatever your undiagnosed PTSD is about can cause one to just... want someone to make you feel safe.
I'm not conservative at all, but I can see how Republicans simultaneously offer an easy safe feeling while using fear to whip up their base. It works for them!
I dunno, I almost didn't post this because it's half baked and there's a whole perspective missing from someone who grew up with a lot of trauma to begin with due to their race, wealth, or local societal values. But maybe it's a starting point to think about this. And of course, there's never just one reason for something, it's usually a "why not both?" kind of thing.
posted by keep_evolving at 12:15 PM on June 5, 2023 [14 favorites]
I'm not conservative at all, but I can see how Republicans simultaneously offer an easy safe feeling while using fear to whip up their base. It works for them!
I dunno, I almost didn't post this because it's half baked and there's a whole perspective missing from someone who grew up with a lot of trauma to begin with due to their race, wealth, or local societal values. But maybe it's a starting point to think about this. And of course, there's never just one reason for something, it's usually a "why not both?" kind of thing.
posted by keep_evolving at 12:15 PM on June 5, 2023 [14 favorites]
Yeah and I think also we underestimate how patterns of thought that used to denote youthful freshness can harden into exploitable prejudices over the years. I think a lot of boomers think of themselves, first and foremost, as people who question the establishment, which means they're very open to any ideology that can define the enemy as an "establishment" in some way. How many ageing lefties do you know who are still inclined to trust RT over the American press or government, regardless of how both RT and the American press and government have changed since the sixties? How easy is it to go anti-vax when the "medical establishment" is so well aligned in favor? I'm already trying to be on guard for how my millennial foibles and prejudices will be used against me as I get older, and I hope I see it coming more clearly than the boomers did.
posted by potrzebie at 12:17 PM on June 5, 2023 [47 favorites]
posted by potrzebie at 12:17 PM on June 5, 2023 [47 favorites]
FWIW I’m an older millennial and grew up hearing I’d move to the right when I got older. I think I am now the furthest to the left I have ever been.
posted by kat518 at 12:20 PM on June 5, 2023 [81 favorites]
posted by kat518 at 12:20 PM on June 5, 2023 [81 favorites]
People can become more conservative just by retaining the views of their youth as the world around them advances, though. For instance, "colorblindness" used to be a liberal trait.
As I've gotten older, I've come to realize that this isn't true. Instead, I think what happens is that those in power continually rewrite history so as to eliminate examples of love, tolerance, and progressivism in those days.
We're seeing this in action with trans rights, where you see so, so many examples of trans people existing throughout history. With trans folks existing in pre-Nazi Germany and with people celebrating transitions in post-war GIs (even if it was in problematic terms). But people are still claiming that transgender matters "came out of nowhere", trying to excuse their transphobia.
People who had progressive views and values in the 1960s were pushing for equality for all, socialism, and the like. Maybe Malcolm X and Martin Luther King Jr. wouldn't have had the right *words* for 2020s progressivism, but their *views* would very much be in line with modern progressivism.
posted by explosion at 12:20 PM on June 5, 2023 [32 favorites]
As I've gotten older, I've come to realize that this isn't true. Instead, I think what happens is that those in power continually rewrite history so as to eliminate examples of love, tolerance, and progressivism in those days.
We're seeing this in action with trans rights, where you see so, so many examples of trans people existing throughout history. With trans folks existing in pre-Nazi Germany and with people celebrating transitions in post-war GIs (even if it was in problematic terms). But people are still claiming that transgender matters "came out of nowhere", trying to excuse their transphobia.
People who had progressive views and values in the 1960s were pushing for equality for all, socialism, and the like. Maybe Malcolm X and Martin Luther King Jr. wouldn't have had the right *words* for 2020s progressivism, but their *views* would very much be in line with modern progressivism.
posted by explosion at 12:20 PM on June 5, 2023 [32 favorites]
I'm starting to wonder if "becoming more conservative" has less to do with having assets to protect as it does with becoming more fearful due to accumulated trauma.
Or accumulated lead poisoning.
posted by mhoye at 12:24 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
Or accumulated lead poisoning.
posted by mhoye at 12:24 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
> "colorblindness" used to be a liberal trait
"Colorblindness" was a White liberal trait. Black people knew it was BS all along.
posted by splitpeasoup at 12:28 PM on June 5, 2023 [36 favorites]
"Colorblindness" was a White liberal trait. Black people knew it was BS all along.
posted by splitpeasoup at 12:28 PM on June 5, 2023 [36 favorites]
Instead, I think what happens is that those in power continually rewrite history so as to eliminate examples of love, tolerance, and progressivism in those days.
Of course a.) examples of people being “ahead of their time” exist and b.) “progress” doesn’t actually move in a straight line, but that doesn’t mean you can’t characterize a period in time as relatively conservative and from that predict that people who came of age in that period will be relatively conservative compared to other cohorts.
posted by atoxyl at 12:28 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Of course a.) examples of people being “ahead of their time” exist and b.) “progress” doesn’t actually move in a straight line, but that doesn’t mean you can’t characterize a period in time as relatively conservative and from that predict that people who came of age in that period will be relatively conservative compared to other cohorts.
posted by atoxyl at 12:28 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
As a very early member of Gen X who went to art school and cool indie shows back in the '80s I remember having a sense of what a minority people with progressive political ideas were.
That sense has only gotten stronger over the years, and for all its faux rebel stances, I think my cohorts, at least what I've witnessed, are very conservative. Super subjective, I know, but that's what I have seen over the decades.
Also, I went to art school back in the fall of '83, and I paid the years tuition with 6 weeks of minimum wage work. I can't imagine someone doing that now at the same school I went to. It's brutal for young people as far as getting a start goes now.
Me, I pissed all that privilege away, but that's on me, not on any of the common straw men that conservatives like to rant about.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 12:31 PM on June 5, 2023 [8 favorites]
That sense has only gotten stronger over the years, and for all its faux rebel stances, I think my cohorts, at least what I've witnessed, are very conservative. Super subjective, I know, but that's what I have seen over the decades.
Also, I went to art school back in the fall of '83, and I paid the years tuition with 6 weeks of minimum wage work. I can't imagine someone doing that now at the same school I went to. It's brutal for young people as far as getting a start goes now.
Me, I pissed all that privilege away, but that's on me, not on any of the common straw men that conservatives like to rant about.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 12:31 PM on June 5, 2023 [8 favorites]
I'm already trying to be on guard for how my millennial foibles and prejudices will be used against me as I get older
This is such a great topic to think about. Do you have any suggestions? My first thought is technophilia, but that's hard to maintain in an aging populace.
posted by agentofselection at 12:32 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
This is such a great topic to think about. Do you have any suggestions? My first thought is technophilia, but that's hard to maintain in an aging populace.
posted by agentofselection at 12:32 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
“progress” doesn’t actually move in a straight line, but that doesn’t mean you can’t characterize a period in time as relatively conservative
“People are left behind by inexorable progress” is just the conservative inverted version of Whig history, and yeah, probably not a great framework, but if you’re going to accept the idea that Millennials are more liberal than Boomers etc. in some lasting, non-circumstantial way, it more or less implies that people can be “left behind” by ideological shifts in some direction.
posted by atoxyl at 12:38 PM on June 5, 2023
“People are left behind by inexorable progress” is just the conservative inverted version of Whig history, and yeah, probably not a great framework, but if you’re going to accept the idea that Millennials are more liberal than Boomers etc. in some lasting, non-circumstantial way, it more or less implies that people can be “left behind” by ideological shifts in some direction.
posted by atoxyl at 12:38 PM on June 5, 2023
I guess some people think it is all driven by economic circumstances and material factors but I am not sure I buy that, especially when it comes to “social issues.”
posted by atoxyl at 12:42 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by atoxyl at 12:42 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
At a certain point, it doesn't really matter what the group intent is, because there's only so far the system will go in terms of economic action. You could have a majority of voters who wanted fully automated gay luxury Communism or whatever, and if they somehow got a candidate through the selection process and elected, that candidate would mysteriously fall over dead.
Fortunately the process is a lot less openly dramatic, but the will of the populace really doesn't reflect the actual business of governing (see every war protest ever, healthcare, abortion, and a host of other examples). That does mean you can have almost any opinion you want, left or right, because it's vanishingly unlikely that your opinion matters.
posted by kingdead at 1:18 PM on June 5, 2023 [9 favorites]
Fortunately the process is a lot less openly dramatic, but the will of the populace really doesn't reflect the actual business of governing (see every war protest ever, healthcare, abortion, and a host of other examples). That does mean you can have almost any opinion you want, left or right, because it's vanishingly unlikely that your opinion matters.
posted by kingdead at 1:18 PM on June 5, 2023 [9 favorites]
I'm already trying to be on guard for how my millennial foibles and prejudices will be used against me as I get older
The ubiquitousness of millennial culture will create a target-rich environment, have no doubt.
I actually see millennials and boomers as having quite similar foibles. It’s easy for millennials to compare themselves favorably to the smug, affluent, triumphal boomers of the 90’s, in which case the contrast is obvious.
But in a lot of ways, millennials resemble boomers in the 70’s: an enormous, boisterous, highly educated generation that the media couldn’t get enough of and who in turn *consumed* more media than their predecessors, cash-strapped, struggling, still trying to reconcile their Age of Aquarius Utopianism with their own material goals, shut out of homeownership (at the time, the major barrier was double-digit interest rates), enamored with self-help and mysticism, challenging gender roles, and motivated all the while by the conviction that previous generations had screwed it all up for them (which in fairness they had).
So… who knows how it’ll all look in 10, 20, 30 years, but don’t be surprised if powerful normative forces draw us (I’m more “X-ennial”) back toward the exhausted, disappointed center.
posted by ducky l'orange at 1:33 PM on June 5, 2023 [19 favorites]
The ubiquitousness of millennial culture will create a target-rich environment, have no doubt.
I actually see millennials and boomers as having quite similar foibles. It’s easy for millennials to compare themselves favorably to the smug, affluent, triumphal boomers of the 90’s, in which case the contrast is obvious.
But in a lot of ways, millennials resemble boomers in the 70’s: an enormous, boisterous, highly educated generation that the media couldn’t get enough of and who in turn *consumed* more media than their predecessors, cash-strapped, struggling, still trying to reconcile their Age of Aquarius Utopianism with their own material goals, shut out of homeownership (at the time, the major barrier was double-digit interest rates), enamored with self-help and mysticism, challenging gender roles, and motivated all the while by the conviction that previous generations had screwed it all up for them (which in fairness they had).
So… who knows how it’ll all look in 10, 20, 30 years, but don’t be surprised if powerful normative forces draw us (I’m more “X-ennial”) back toward the exhausted, disappointed center.
posted by ducky l'orange at 1:33 PM on June 5, 2023 [19 favorites]
I always figured millennials will be boomers but worse once we actually get the money and power. We have much greater chips on our generational shoulder than the boomers ever did.
posted by Apocryphon at 1:41 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Apocryphon at 1:41 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
My first thought is technophilia, but that's hard to maintain in an aging populace.
as an aging former technophile, i find i just care less about the new hotness as the years go on. plus perspective shows me that capitalism will fuck up everything eventually. still, it's fun to tune into the trends via my 15yo kiddo (discord is where it's at).
posted by kokaku at 1:41 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
as an aging former technophile, i find i just care less about the new hotness as the years go on. plus perspective shows me that capitalism will fuck up everything eventually. still, it's fun to tune into the trends via my 15yo kiddo (discord is where it's at).
posted by kokaku at 1:41 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
I see no one has mentioned climate change. Today's climate related disasters haven't really penetrated US politics as a thing that something needs to be done about. Tomorrow's climate disasters are going to make 20th century republican political issues such as bigger tax cuts for oligarchs entirely irrelevant.
posted by monotreme at 1:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by monotreme at 1:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
and motivated all the while by the conviction that previous generations had screwed it all up for them (which in fairness they had)
there is something a little true to just about every statement, and generational comparisons can be interesting up to a point.. but placing blame on a generation? The great share of blame must be laid at the feet of an owner class that accumulates wealth at the expense of others. All the politics and generational posturing really distracts us from who is truly "screwing it up" for (name a generation).
posted by elkevelvet at 1:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [11 favorites]
there is something a little true to just about every statement, and generational comparisons can be interesting up to a point.. but placing blame on a generation? The great share of blame must be laid at the feet of an owner class that accumulates wealth at the expense of others. All the politics and generational posturing really distracts us from who is truly "screwing it up" for (name a generation).
posted by elkevelvet at 1:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [11 favorites]
I see the GOP playbook moving towards outright voter suppression, increasingly outside even the color of law. They know they've lost the people, and they intend to move forward without them.
For a while there, I was worried that GOP leadership was going to do the smart thing, and try to ally itself with the incredibly-culturally-conservative religious parts of Black and Latinx communities. There are some really nasty and virulent veins of sexism and homophobia and even racism to be mined, and you wouldn't have to work very hard to peel off 10-30% of minority communities that are demographically almost entirely Democratic-voting. A competent national strategy by the GOP, which I'd describe roughly as "stop basing your platform on open white supremacy," would absolutely devastate the Dems electorally, and I thought I saw some signs of it materializing near the 2012 election.
But nope, the crazies have firmly taken control of the wheel, and it's ride-or-die with the institutional racism. They've pinned their hopes on voter suppression; let's see how far it'll take them.
posted by Mayor West at 2:00 PM on June 5, 2023 [15 favorites]
For a while there, I was worried that GOP leadership was going to do the smart thing, and try to ally itself with the incredibly-culturally-conservative religious parts of Black and Latinx communities. There are some really nasty and virulent veins of sexism and homophobia and even racism to be mined, and you wouldn't have to work very hard to peel off 10-30% of minority communities that are demographically almost entirely Democratic-voting. A competent national strategy by the GOP, which I'd describe roughly as "stop basing your platform on open white supremacy," would absolutely devastate the Dems electorally, and I thought I saw some signs of it materializing near the 2012 election.
But nope, the crazies have firmly taken control of the wheel, and it's ride-or-die with the institutional racism. They've pinned their hopes on voter suppression; let's see how far it'll take them.
posted by Mayor West at 2:00 PM on June 5, 2023 [15 favorites]
I was being a little glib, Elkevelvet. Generational warfare is pretty dumb, as are generational categories themselves.
posted by ducky l'orange at 2:03 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by ducky l'orange at 2:03 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
A competent national strategy by the GOP, which I'd describe roughly as "stop basing your platform on open white supremacy," would absolutely devastate the Dems electorally, and I thought I saw some signs of it materializing near the 2012 election.
American white supremacy was defined early on as anti-Blackness. That's why the Irish and Italians eventually became white. It's why Asians are largely ignored or seen as the "model minority". It's less about enforcing supremacy than it is about enforcing inferiority on a particular underclass.
posted by Etrigan at 2:15 PM on June 5, 2023 [11 favorites]
American white supremacy was defined early on as anti-Blackness. That's why the Irish and Italians eventually became white. It's why Asians are largely ignored or seen as the "model minority". It's less about enforcing supremacy than it is about enforcing inferiority on a particular underclass.
posted by Etrigan at 2:15 PM on June 5, 2023 [11 favorites]
I'm already trying to be on guard for how my millennial foibles and prejudices will be used against me as I get older...
The smartest thing the GOP could do is start bringing up millennial, x-er, etc. candidates, and have them run on “fixing” the messes boomers made.
Here in Indianapolis, we have an early gen-x-er running on the Republican ticket for mayor in 2024. His primary ads made it pretty clear he intends to paint Indy as an out-of-control hell hole full of...people...who mean you serious harm. His solution seems pretty much to hire lots more cops, tell them to break heads, and make Indy a police state.
Over the past several years, Indianapolis has seen the creation of several large gentrified pockets of well-paid x-ers and millennials, bringing a lot of money and development to the areas. It will be interesting (or frightening) to see if the Republican’s messaging will resonate with them.
posted by Thorzdad at 2:31 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
The smartest thing the GOP could do is start bringing up millennial, x-er, etc. candidates, and have them run on “fixing” the messes boomers made.
Here in Indianapolis, we have an early gen-x-er running on the Republican ticket for mayor in 2024. His primary ads made it pretty clear he intends to paint Indy as an out-of-control hell hole full of...people...who mean you serious harm. His solution seems pretty much to hire lots more cops, tell them to break heads, and make Indy a police state.
Over the past several years, Indianapolis has seen the creation of several large gentrified pockets of well-paid x-ers and millennials, bringing a lot of money and development to the areas. It will be interesting (or frightening) to see if the Republican’s messaging will resonate with them.
posted by Thorzdad at 2:31 PM on June 5, 2023 [1 favorite]
The smartest thing the GOP could do is start bringing up millennial, x-er, etc. candidates, and have them run on “fixing” the messes boomers made.
When they do this with Millennials the people they find are more openly awful in today's social media landscape than accomplished in the way that instills confidence in their leadership.
posted by Selena777 at 2:37 PM on June 5, 2023
When they do this with Millennials the people they find are more openly awful in today's social media landscape than accomplished in the way that instills confidence in their leadership.
posted by Selena777 at 2:37 PM on June 5, 2023
I see no one has mentioned climate change.
For years I was expecting climate to reshape a lot of politics. You can see it in some of the activism, some of the theory (degrowth, etc), and climate fiction (am reading The Deluge right now).
Yet right now? It seems something the US is just unusually bad at, for a variety of reasons. For the past couple of years I've seen a lot more climate activism and interest in other countries.
Still, I hope that Americans will turn around on this.
posted by doctornemo at 2:43 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
For years I was expecting climate to reshape a lot of politics. You can see it in some of the activism, some of the theory (degrowth, etc), and climate fiction (am reading The Deluge right now).
Yet right now? It seems something the US is just unusually bad at, for a variety of reasons. For the past couple of years I've seen a lot more climate activism and interest in other countries.
Still, I hope that Americans will turn around on this.
posted by doctornemo at 2:43 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
For a while there, I was worried that GOP leadership was going to do the smart thing, and try to ally itself with the incredibly-culturally-conservative religious parts of Black and Latinx communities...
But nope, the crazies have firmly taken control of the wheel, and it's ride-or-die with the institutional racism. They've pinned their hopes on voter suppression...
Or are they doing both? The GOP has, as you said, peeled away 10-30% of nonwhite votes for a decade now. Polling indicates a lot of GOP arguments - protect small businesses, support the traditional family, pro-religion, etc. - have won significant adherents.
I mean, it seems nuts to see blacks and Latinos voting for Trump et al, but it keeps happening, and at scale.
posted by doctornemo at 2:46 PM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
But nope, the crazies have firmly taken control of the wheel, and it's ride-or-die with the institutional racism. They've pinned their hopes on voter suppression...
Or are they doing both? The GOP has, as you said, peeled away 10-30% of nonwhite votes for a decade now. Polling indicates a lot of GOP arguments - protect small businesses, support the traditional family, pro-religion, etc. - have won significant adherents.
I mean, it seems nuts to see blacks and Latinos voting for Trump et al, but it keeps happening, and at scale.
posted by doctornemo at 2:46 PM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
For years I was expecting climate to reshape a lot of politics. ... Yet right now? It seems something the US is just unusually bad at, for a variety of reasons. For the past couple of years I've seen a lot more climate activism and interest in other countries.
Still, I hope that Americans will turn around on this.
Biden has probably done more to fight climate change than any other world leader ever.
The weird thing is that he gets almost no credit for it.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:51 PM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
Still, I hope that Americans will turn around on this.
Biden has probably done more to fight climate change than any other world leader ever.
The weird thing is that he gets almost no credit for it.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 2:51 PM on June 5, 2023 [7 favorites]
Cohorts become more conservative as their poorer (and generally more progressive) members die off.
And this die-off is being accelerated like never before.
posted by srboisvert at 3:38 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
And this die-off is being accelerated like never before.
posted by srboisvert at 3:38 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
I always figured millennials will be boomers but worse once we actually get the money and power. We have much greater chips on our generational shoulder than the boomers ever did.
Statistically, you won't get that money or power until you're already on the edge of senility yourself though. Congress and the Senate just keeps getting older and older. Powerful boomers are not retiring even when they have strokes! Then if you're merely middle class your inheritance will be eaten up by eldercare and end of life healthcare costs for your parents. Millenials are at best going to be a bunch of Prince Charleses inheriting stuff right before they themselves die earlier than their parents thanks to the lifelong exposure to a high toxicity physical environment.
posted by srboisvert at 3:48 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
Statistically, you won't get that money or power until you're already on the edge of senility yourself though. Congress and the Senate just keeps getting older and older. Powerful boomers are not retiring even when they have strokes! Then if you're merely middle class your inheritance will be eaten up by eldercare and end of life healthcare costs for your parents. Millenials are at best going to be a bunch of Prince Charleses inheriting stuff right before they themselves die earlier than their parents thanks to the lifelong exposure to a high toxicity physical environment.
posted by srboisvert at 3:48 PM on June 5, 2023 [5 favorites]
With climate change, I think that simply the more pressing issues of disease, food, and shelter have taken precedence for the last few years.
I feel that climate activism in my circle reached a recent apex at the start of 2020 (during the coverage Australian bushfires) but then faltered for obvious reasons.
posted by other barry at 4:31 PM on June 5, 2023
I feel that climate activism in my circle reached a recent apex at the start of 2020 (during the coverage Australian bushfires) but then faltered for obvious reasons.
posted by other barry at 4:31 PM on June 5, 2023
I mean, it seems nuts to see blacks and Latinos voting for Trump et al, but it keeps happening, and at scale..
This is the problem, though: it's not nuts at all, and the left has gotten pretty complacent regarding these voters, especially the progressive wing where it's seemingly an article of faith they have everyone on their side except the lone remaining obstacle of old white people.
As Mayor West notes, Black and Latino (and Asian) voters are not a monolith. There are large segments of these groups that are very socially conservative for whom the GOP's pitch is very attractive. And there really isn't much that separates, say, a Latino small business owner from a white one. I think the left has for too long relied on "they're racists so non-whites would never vote for them, duh", to their detriment. It's not that simple, and clearly some inroads have been made.
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:02 PM on June 5, 2023 [19 favorites]
This is the problem, though: it's not nuts at all, and the left has gotten pretty complacent regarding these voters, especially the progressive wing where it's seemingly an article of faith they have everyone on their side except the lone remaining obstacle of old white people.
As Mayor West notes, Black and Latino (and Asian) voters are not a monolith. There are large segments of these groups that are very socially conservative for whom the GOP's pitch is very attractive. And there really isn't much that separates, say, a Latino small business owner from a white one. I think the left has for too long relied on "they're racists so non-whites would never vote for them, duh", to their detriment. It's not that simple, and clearly some inroads have been made.
posted by star gentle uterus at 5:02 PM on June 5, 2023 [19 favorites]
Biden has probably done more to fight climate change than any other world leader ever.
The weird thing is that he gets almost no credit for it.
True on both counts. For the latter, it's interesting. Media coverage is partly to blame for it - US news outlets are really not good on climate change.
posted by doctornemo at 5:50 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
The weird thing is that he gets almost no credit for it.
True on both counts. For the latter, it's interesting. Media coverage is partly to blame for it - US news outlets are really not good on climate change.
posted by doctornemo at 5:50 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
I always figured millennials will be boomers but worse once we actually get the money and power
There isn't any indication that wealth won't continue to concentrate in fewer people though. Oligarchs have a firm grip on the concentrator and I honestly don't see that changing at this point without blood in the streets.
Also because even what little wealth is coming into millennial hands is coming on average much later. This will delay shifts to the right.
posted by Mitheral at 5:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
There isn't any indication that wealth won't continue to concentrate in fewer people though. Oligarchs have a firm grip on the concentrator and I honestly don't see that changing at this point without blood in the streets.
Also because even what little wealth is coming into millennial hands is coming on average much later. This will delay shifts to the right.
posted by Mitheral at 5:54 PM on June 5, 2023 [3 favorites]
I'm a Gen Xer and I'm still waiting on that wealth.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:38 PM on June 5, 2023 [14 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 6:38 PM on June 5, 2023 [14 favorites]
FWIW I’m an older millennial and grew up hearing I’d move to the right when I got older. I think I am now the furthest to the left I have ever been.
I’m 42 and I don’t think I can say how radical my politics have become without this comment getting deleted, AND I own a house, so…
posted by rhymedirective at 6:39 PM on June 5, 2023 [10 favorites]
I’m 42 and I don’t think I can say how radical my politics have become without this comment getting deleted, AND I own a house, so…
posted by rhymedirective at 6:39 PM on June 5, 2023 [10 favorites]
Tomorrow's climate disasters are going to make 20th century republican political issues such as bigger tax cuts for oligarchs entirely irrelevant.
posted by monotreme at 1:54 PM on June 5
Hello from New Orleans. That future was 2005. Many of us watched in horror at the lack of response to Maria in 2017.
What are people waiting around for?
posted by eustatic at 6:55 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
posted by monotreme at 1:54 PM on June 5
Hello from New Orleans. That future was 2005. Many of us watched in horror at the lack of response to Maria in 2017.
What are people waiting around for?
posted by eustatic at 6:55 PM on June 5, 2023 [12 favorites]
Hello from New Orleans. That future was 2005. Many of us watched in horror at the lack of response to Maria in 2017.These things take time to become mainstream issues because people downplay things which don’t personally affect them – homeowners insurance is going to do a lot here – and the steady grind of capitalism means that most of the population is more concerned about problems next month rather than next decade. That doesn’t mean we should stop talking about it – we can’t afford to repeat the DNC’s demographic complacency – but rather that it’s important to talk about why this is so important, how the ways to deal with it aren’t anywhere near as bad as right-wingers claim, and especially how many of the problems are related with overlapping solutions.
Housing is a good example: artificial limits on density aren’t just contributing to climate change, they’re also keeping people spending significant percentages of their income to sit in cars away from their friends and families, getting less healthy, and living in less interesting places.
posted by adamsc at 8:02 PM on June 5, 2023 [2 favorites]
Most people normalize their lives based on only the last couple of years. Georgia freezes, with lower temps than Minnesota, or even the Arctic Circle? Yeah, it has happened a couple of times now. Seattle is the hottest city in the USA in June? Weird now, just wait a few years for it to happen more often and then, poof, just another fact of life.
It takes effort to keep saying, "This is wrong. We can stop it. We must change," to one's self. For most folks day-to-day life is more than they are equipped to handle. That is not a dig, day-to-day life in the modern world is an assault one our primate sensibilities and healthy function. Keeping the seemingly slow moving existential threat in mind and being able to choose representatives who actually know what to do to face it, while also catering to all the other priorities, who can also be elected in a general election, is not, in anyway, a neurologically low over-head proposition.
As a late Gen Xer I watch the latest batch of right-wing whack jobs from my peer group start their shtick and I just hear their parents. Which is what it was like listening to the Boomers hit middle age. The loud cohort that shapes the early ideas about a generation is usually a minority of the age cohort. The Hippies, Yippies, and free spirits of the Boomers being the defining groups of the generation were a media distortion. The Me Generation was what was really hiding in plain sight.
If we are lucky the Millennials will have the ability to recognize that all the coasts are going to get swallowed by the ocean as first Greenland and then Antarctica melt,that there is a very little chance of a magical technology just manifesting because we want it to, and that in the end, your bank account will not save you when there is no more reliable agriculture. Enough Boomers and Xer's don't believe that they will be sufficiently affected and that the magic solution is just around the corner that we may be just be screwed to much before Millennials ever get a chance to show us what their cohort is capable of.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 8:14 PM on June 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
It takes effort to keep saying, "This is wrong. We can stop it. We must change," to one's self. For most folks day-to-day life is more than they are equipped to handle. That is not a dig, day-to-day life in the modern world is an assault one our primate sensibilities and healthy function. Keeping the seemingly slow moving existential threat in mind and being able to choose representatives who actually know what to do to face it, while also catering to all the other priorities, who can also be elected in a general election, is not, in anyway, a neurologically low over-head proposition.
As a late Gen Xer I watch the latest batch of right-wing whack jobs from my peer group start their shtick and I just hear their parents. Which is what it was like listening to the Boomers hit middle age. The loud cohort that shapes the early ideas about a generation is usually a minority of the age cohort. The Hippies, Yippies, and free spirits of the Boomers being the defining groups of the generation were a media distortion. The Me Generation was what was really hiding in plain sight.
If we are lucky the Millennials will have the ability to recognize that all the coasts are going to get swallowed by the ocean as first Greenland and then Antarctica melt,that there is a very little chance of a magical technology just manifesting because we want it to, and that in the end, your bank account will not save you when there is no more reliable agriculture. Enough Boomers and Xer's don't believe that they will be sufficiently affected and that the magic solution is just around the corner that we may be just be screwed to much before Millennials ever get a chance to show us what their cohort is capable of.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 8:14 PM on June 5, 2023 [6 favorites]
> As a late Gen Xer I watch the latest batch of right-wing whack jobs from my peer group start their shtick and I just hear their parents. Which is what it was like listening to the Boomers hit middle age.
okay but also it’s difficult to generalize from gen-x to other generations. gen-x has lived through two massively deadly global pandemics so far, and the first one of those cut down a great swath of the best early gen-xers before they could get to middle age.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 8:32 PM on June 5, 2023 [17 favorites]
okay but also it’s difficult to generalize from gen-x to other generations. gen-x has lived through two massively deadly global pandemics so far, and the first one of those cut down a great swath of the best early gen-xers before they could get to middle age.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 8:32 PM on June 5, 2023 [17 favorites]
There isn't any indication that wealth won't continue to concentrate in fewer people though. Oligarchs have a firm grip on the concentrator and I honestly don't see that changing at this point without blood in the streets.
Also because even what little wealth is coming into millennial hands is coming on average much later. This will delay shifts to the right.
I know a few millennials who already inherited, because their parents had them later in life and then passed away on the younger side. Not everyone ends up needing expensive end of life care, and while not all boomers are wealthy by any stretch of the imagination, a substantial percentage of them have middle class-level assets (like a paid for house and some retirement accounts).
But what that means more generally for millennials, I don't know. On average boomers have wealth, but that average is pushed up by the very wealthy and the median boomers and below don't have all that much. And if your parents had you when they were young, they're more likely to be still living until or even beyond when you hit your own retirement age. Millennials will be the kings of "sandwich living," stuck providing child care to their kids and elder care to their parents at the same time.
Unless something changes politically (like with severely progressive taxation), your comment about increasing concentration of wealth seems like a very safe bet. It will continue to concentrate in the oligarchs, and it will also concentrate within age cohorts, where the subset of people who have parents with assets benefiting greatly from the intergenerational transfer of wealth, and many more people not benefiting at all.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:53 AM on June 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Also because even what little wealth is coming into millennial hands is coming on average much later. This will delay shifts to the right.
I know a few millennials who already inherited, because their parents had them later in life and then passed away on the younger side. Not everyone ends up needing expensive end of life care, and while not all boomers are wealthy by any stretch of the imagination, a substantial percentage of them have middle class-level assets (like a paid for house and some retirement accounts).
But what that means more generally for millennials, I don't know. On average boomers have wealth, but that average is pushed up by the very wealthy and the median boomers and below don't have all that much. And if your parents had you when they were young, they're more likely to be still living until or even beyond when you hit your own retirement age. Millennials will be the kings of "sandwich living," stuck providing child care to their kids and elder care to their parents at the same time.
Unless something changes politically (like with severely progressive taxation), your comment about increasing concentration of wealth seems like a very safe bet. It will continue to concentrate in the oligarchs, and it will also concentrate within age cohorts, where the subset of people who have parents with assets benefiting greatly from the intergenerational transfer of wealth, and many more people not benefiting at all.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:53 AM on June 6, 2023 [3 favorites]
Biden has probably done more to fight climate change than any other world leader ever.
#1 No, who would even believe that? Paris has dropped 50k cars from their city center, while NYC is against congestion charges. Even those Brexit Londoners do more than that. Spain/China/France have more rail. The US has done some vague half-assed measures that paper around the sides while continuing the status quo.
and #2, it's because 'fighting global climate change more than any other leader' is carrying lots of weight, given how little the past ones 'fought global climate change'. Somebody's gotta be the winner, but that doesn't mean he's done a lot.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:28 AM on June 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
#1 No, who would even believe that? Paris has dropped 50k cars from their city center, while NYC is against congestion charges. Even those Brexit Londoners do more than that. Spain/China/France have more rail. The US has done some vague half-assed measures that paper around the sides while continuing the status quo.
and #2, it's because 'fighting global climate change more than any other leader' is carrying lots of weight, given how little the past ones 'fought global climate change'. Somebody's gotta be the winner, but that doesn't mean he's done a lot.
posted by The_Vegetables at 7:28 AM on June 6, 2023 [5 favorites]
More than any other leader ever is a stretch without comparing data. More than any other U.S. Prezy, possibly.
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:12 AM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 8:12 AM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
The Biden Administration has been an important part of - not the whole of, US politics doesn't work that way - of setting a policy consensus that will significantly decarbonize the most carbon intensive 300+ million people in the world. It's already done, for all intents and purposes, that well before 20 years from now, hydrocarbon combustion is going to be limited to aviation fuels, long-haul semis, bad weather (no sun, no wind) peaker power plants, and off-grid and emergency generation. Maybe could have happened under a second Trump administration but I kinda doubt it.
posted by MattD at 8:15 AM on June 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by MattD at 8:15 AM on June 6, 2023 [4 favorites]
gen-x has lived through two massively deadly global pandemics so far, and the first one of those cut down a great swath of the best early gen-xers before they could get to middle age.
I (Gen X) worry after COVID and Katrina (and the ongoing effects of hurricanes in SE Texas where I grew up and which a lot of my friends are leaving between politics and climate change) that pandemics that kill significant parts of generations are going to be part of the new normal along with the significant climate change I've watched in my own lifetime.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 8:22 AM on June 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
I (Gen X) worry after COVID and Katrina (and the ongoing effects of hurricanes in SE Texas where I grew up and which a lot of my friends are leaving between politics and climate change) that pandemics that kill significant parts of generations are going to be part of the new normal along with the significant climate change I've watched in my own lifetime.
posted by gentlyepigrams at 8:22 AM on June 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
#1 No, who would even believe that? Paris has dropped 50k cars from their city center, while NYC is against congestion charges. Even those Brexit Londoners do more than that. Spain/China/France have more rail. The US has done some vague half-assed measures that paper around the sides while continuing the status quo.
and #2, it's because 'fighting global climate change more than any other leader' is carrying lots of weight, given how little the past ones 'fought global climate change'. Somebody's gotta be the winner, but that doesn't mean he's done a lot.
A response that focuses on city-level policies is not a rebuttal to my statement about Biden.
And I assert again that he HAS done a lot. I follow federal and state energy and environmental policy closely for my job. I realize that the general public is only dimly aware of what's in legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Act, etc., and doesn't really pay attention to EPA regulations -- like the recent tightenings of smokestack emissions, auto emissions, etc. And almost nobody seems to have noticed that Biden is opening up almost the entire U.S. coastline to offshore wind development on a massive scale.
But it's increasingly clear that 2020-2024 is going to be seen, in hindsight, as the inflection point when we started taking the energy transition seriously.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:42 AM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
and #2, it's because 'fighting global climate change more than any other leader' is carrying lots of weight, given how little the past ones 'fought global climate change'. Somebody's gotta be the winner, but that doesn't mean he's done a lot.
A response that focuses on city-level policies is not a rebuttal to my statement about Biden.
And I assert again that he HAS done a lot. I follow federal and state energy and environmental policy closely for my job. I realize that the general public is only dimly aware of what's in legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, the Infrastructure Act, etc., and doesn't really pay attention to EPA regulations -- like the recent tightenings of smokestack emissions, auto emissions, etc. And almost nobody seems to have noticed that Biden is opening up almost the entire U.S. coastline to offshore wind development on a massive scale.
But it's increasingly clear that 2020-2024 is going to be seen, in hindsight, as the inflection point when we started taking the energy transition seriously.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 11:42 AM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
Biden’s done way more than he’s getting credit for. His uninspiring, milquetoast centerist style (and I know it’s not just style!) gives him the political cover to do a lot of things the country needs done, some of which are actually fairly progressive. I will be supporting him vocally next year.
posted by ducky l'orange at 12:04 PM on June 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by ducky l'orange at 12:04 PM on June 6, 2023 [6 favorites]
I'm aware of the new regulations - they are pretty weak, and rely on 'fleet-wide averages' again (which has driven people into SUVs and away from more fuel efficient vehicles), and were adjusted downwards by Trump, and up only about 2 mpg over the ones Obama set ~15 years ago. It's great the coastline is being opened for wind development, but it matters how much wind is actually constructed, and Biden has also approved oil drilling permits at the same rate as Trump and backtracked on campaign promises to limit oil drilling on federal lands.
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:09 PM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by The_Vegetables at 12:09 PM on June 6, 2023 [2 favorites]
It's great the coastline is being opened for wind development, but it matters how much wind is actually constructed,
There's something like 51 GW of offshore wind capacity in the pipeline. If it all got built, that would be more than 1/3 of what has been built onshore to date in the US. So it's potentially a lot of capacity, and that pipeline will increase further assuming more areas are opened to development.
The two big bottlenecks with bringing more renewable energy online right now are permitting delays and interconnection limits. At some point, there will need to be a choice between continuing our fairly slow ramp up in renewable power, or breaking through the bottlenecks using regulatory power and public funds.
But that said, I agree with the comment above that Biden has done a tremendous amount towards climate issues, more than any national leader anywhere that I can think of.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:54 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
There's something like 51 GW of offshore wind capacity in the pipeline. If it all got built, that would be more than 1/3 of what has been built onshore to date in the US. So it's potentially a lot of capacity, and that pipeline will increase further assuming more areas are opened to development.
The two big bottlenecks with bringing more renewable energy online right now are permitting delays and interconnection limits. At some point, there will need to be a choice between continuing our fairly slow ramp up in renewable power, or breaking through the bottlenecks using regulatory power and public funds.
But that said, I agree with the comment above that Biden has done a tremendous amount towards climate issues, more than any national leader anywhere that I can think of.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:54 PM on June 6, 2023 [1 favorite]
I'm aware of the new regulations - they are pretty weak, and rely on 'fleet-wide averages' again (which has driven people into SUVs and away from more fuel efficient vehicles)
You can turn up your nose at anything that doesn't meet some hypothetical standard of perfection, but these are the strongest auto emissions regs ever proposed in the U.S.
It remains to be seen whether the SCOTUS will gut them using one of its increasingly Calvinball-esque maneuvers.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 7:15 PM on June 8, 2023
You can turn up your nose at anything that doesn't meet some hypothetical standard of perfection, but these are the strongest auto emissions regs ever proposed in the U.S.
It remains to be seen whether the SCOTUS will gut them using one of its increasingly Calvinball-esque maneuvers.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 7:15 PM on June 8, 2023
I follow federal and state energy and environmental policy closely for my jobI do this also and the " climate" part of the IRA is building massive new petrochemical ammonia plants in Texas and Louisiana which don't have to report their CO2 emissions to EPA
and then pretending that they will inject CO2 as waste into Louisiana, which is a prospect that has failed for the past 15 years.
This is an accounting gimmick.
If you believe the pollution numbers coming out of Texas and Louisiana, as the basis of your energy transition, I think you will be sorely surprised in ten years...
posted by eustatic at 8:20 PM on June 18, 2023
and then pretending that they will inject CO2 as waste into Louisiana, which is a prospect that has failed for the past 15 years.
This is an accounting gimmick.
If you believe the pollution numbers coming out of Texas and Louisiana, as the basis of your energy transition, I think you will be sorely surprised in ten years...
posted by eustatic at 8:20 PM on June 18, 2023
the " climate" part of the IRA is building massive new petrochemical ammonia plants in Texas and Louisiana which don't have to report their CO2 emissions to EPA
That is a gross understatement and mischaracterization of the vast number of climate provisions in the IRA.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:47 PM on June 23, 2023
That is a gross understatement and mischaracterization of the vast number of climate provisions in the IRA.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:47 PM on June 23, 2023
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posted by AlbertCalavicci at 10:58 AM on June 5, 2023 [3 favorites]