The State of Gilead
October 30, 2023 11:11 PM Subscribe
Roe v. Wade Is Gone, but Abortions Are On the Rise [ungated] - "New abortion bans have done little to reduce frequency of the procedure, new data show."
The data indicate that abortion providers, funders and others have adapted quickly to a legal landscape that has changed profoundly. Access has been cut off throughout much of the South, and demand has surged in states in which abortion is still legal. Many providers there have had to significantly increase capacity.Since Dobbs, Abortions Haven't Dropped. But Much Has Changed. [ungated] - "Herculean efforts have helped maintain access to care, but how much longer can that last?"
The findings also underscore the challenges facing antiabortion groups, as the ease of traveling to another state or obtaining abortion pills online seem to be largely undercutting laws intended to reduce abortions.
The modest rise could be interpreted in many different ways, depending on someone’s political leanings. An abortion rights supporter might view the data as clearly showing that bans on abortions don’t eliminate the need for them. A states’ rights proponent might think the outcome proves their point: People are free to go elsewhere to seek care, and the data show they did. And, of course, a staunch abortion opponent might look at the results as evidence that a nationwide ban is needed.Virginia elections offer a test case on abortion ahead of 2024 - "A year after abortion was widely credited with forestalling a Republican 'red wave' in the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the Virginia election offers a preview of whether the issue will remain as potent in 2024, when the presidency as well as Congress will be at stake."
Yet none of those simplistic views reflect the reality of what it took to maintain abortion access in the US after the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling in June 2022. The data belie a gargantuan and potentially unsustainable effort to connect women with providers. And the story on access is still being written in legal battles across the country.
Virginia is the only southern state that has not enacted an abortion ban in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision last year to eliminate a nationwide right, and the issue now dominates legislative races that will determine whether Republicans have the power to implement new restrictions.Virginia Republicans Look to Neutralize Abortion as an Election Issue [ungated] - "The state's governor, Glenn Youngkin, has a strategy to win the state. If it halts Democrats' momentum on the issue, it could be a model for the party in 2024."
Virginia Republicans, mindful of the backlash to a spate of stringent bans in other states, have coalesced around Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin's plan to limit abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for rape, incest and to save the mother's life. That position, they say, is a moderate compromise between a total ban and abortions without limits.
If that message succeeds, it could offer a blueprint for Republicans around the country on an issue that has bedeviled the party. A Republican sweep would also likely intensify calls from some party donors for Youngkin to step into the Republican presidential race, where former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead for the party's nomination despite a litany of legal problems.
Virginia Republicans aren’t looking to win over abortion-rights supporters so much as they want to neutralize the party’s disadvantage with swing voters. The hope is that these voters will prioritize a competing set of issues such as crime and the economy, on which Republicans have an advantage in some polls.also btw...
All 140 seats in the state’s General Assembly are on the ballot this fall, with Republicans looking to take full control. Democrats have made the threat to abortion rights their No. 1 issue, pouring money into ads and looking to motivate voters in an off-year election with President Biden’s unpopularity dimming enthusiasm.
If Republicans take majorities in both legislative chambers under Mr. Youngkin, a governor with national ambitions, it would clear the way for Virginia to become the last Southern state to sharply restrict abortions.
- 'We're wiser': US Republican women candidates steer clear of speaker fight - "Women make up 15% of the voting members of the House Republican party - compared to the 43% of House Democrats - and none have put themselves forward as speaker."*
- Why Trump's Drastic Plan to Slash the Government Could Succeed - "Republican presidential front-runner wants to fire federal employees, assert control over independent agencies and wrest spending authority from Congress."[1,2]
I think that Youngkin's 15 week limit might well work. It's draconian by Roe v Wade standards but looks like a compromise and many people can probably be persuaded that you "should" be able to realise you are pregnant and get an abortion in that timeframe, since the vast majority do in practice.
posted by plonkee at 3:25 AM on October 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
posted by plonkee at 3:25 AM on October 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
From the article:
the ease of traveling to another state or obtaining abortion pills online seem to be largely undercutting laws intended to reduce abortions.
....Only for people who have the money. So - it's basically the way things were before Roe (because you know that it's always been easy for people who have money to get abortion at any point).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:21 AM on October 31, 2023 [26 favorites]
the ease of traveling to another state or obtaining abortion pills online seem to be largely undercutting laws intended to reduce abortions.
....Only for people who have the money. So - it's basically the way things were before Roe (because you know that it's always been easy for people who have money to get abortion at any point).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:21 AM on October 31, 2023 [26 favorites]
....Only for people who have the money.
Speaking just to the issue of people traveling across state lines (versus have medication shipped to where they live): You need money, or you need the social connections that hook you up with a group that can facilitate the travel. But either way, even if you have the money or the connections, you still need to have a work situation that will allow you to take a few days off, etc. plus child care or elder care support for your commitments while you are gone, plus a spouse that is at least not obstructionist.
It's a high bar, so it's kind of amazing to me that the article is saying that overall numbers haven't plummeted. This is a necessity, not a casual want, and clearly people are willing to make major sacrifices to be able to access this health care.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:39 AM on October 31, 2023 [19 favorites]
Speaking just to the issue of people traveling across state lines (versus have medication shipped to where they live): You need money, or you need the social connections that hook you up with a group that can facilitate the travel. But either way, even if you have the money or the connections, you still need to have a work situation that will allow you to take a few days off, etc. plus child care or elder care support for your commitments while you are gone, plus a spouse that is at least not obstructionist.
It's a high bar, so it's kind of amazing to me that the article is saying that overall numbers haven't plummeted. This is a necessity, not a casual want, and clearly people are willing to make major sacrifices to be able to access this health care.
posted by Dip Flash at 6:39 AM on October 31, 2023 [19 favorites]
Arguably, a Jewish woman has a religious right to an abortion at any time prior to ensoulment, which every one of these abortion bans violate. If that's true, there are religious freedom and anti-Semitic aspects to these laws which should be added to the public debate and those promoting abortion limits/bans be made to justify.
posted by mikelieman at 6:46 AM on October 31, 2023 [37 favorites]
posted by mikelieman at 6:46 AM on October 31, 2023 [37 favorites]
I don't think the data are there to test this yet, but I can easily imagine some people with access being more likely to get an abortion now because it's much more obvious that there's a Republican war on women/people who can get pregnant. I for example would be much less willing to try to carry a high-risk pregnancy. This could balance out (in numerical terms) people who now can't access abortion.
posted by medusa at 6:52 AM on October 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
posted by medusa at 6:52 AM on October 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
Speaking as a Virginian I'm working to make sure that Virginia sends the message that no level of Republican interference into the people's rights is acceptable. But that message depends upon turnout, and I fear that in this sort of off-off year election the Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage. We shall see.
posted by srt19170 at 7:13 AM on October 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by srt19170 at 7:13 AM on October 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
Does the data separate out elective abortions from those that would historically be considered be considered treatment for miscarriages/ectopic pregnancies? Given the confusion over the issue, hospitals in my area have been referring outside for everything that could be considered abortion care. I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers for one set of indications are balancing out another set of indications.
Re out of state travel, Lubbock TX among other Texas cities, just passed a law that bans travel through it for abortion care
posted by beaning at 7:13 AM on October 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
Re out of state travel, Lubbock TX among other Texas cities, just passed a law that bans travel through it for abortion care
posted by beaning at 7:13 AM on October 31, 2023 [4 favorites]
And 15 wks might seem a compromise but does not allow time for evaluation of genetic conditions, much less the type of fetal physical evaluation typically done at an 18-20 wks sonogram. Even if done at 9 wks on direct tissue, prenatal testing via CVS still needs 2-3 wks for resulting. And most CVS are done closer to 12 wks and first require 2-3 wks of culturing to have adequate tissue for the fetal studies. And then there are the waiting and education periods which further push back gestational age and confound logistics. Prior to Dobbs, 22wks was barely working in Texas. (quick reminder that NIPTs and simialr are not considered diagnostic and follow up testing should always be performed, esp for previously low-risk pregnancies.)
posted by beaning at 7:16 AM on October 31, 2023 [17 favorites]
posted by beaning at 7:16 AM on October 31, 2023 [17 favorites]
The counter argument to me would be that 15 weeks is a bait and switch and once they have power that will be gone too.
posted by emjaybee at 7:19 AM on October 31, 2023 [49 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 7:19 AM on October 31, 2023 [49 favorites]
I think that Youngkin's 15 week limit might well work. It's draconian by Roe v Wade standards but looks like a compromise and many people can probably be persuaded that you "should" be able to realise you are pregnant and get an abortion in that timeframe, since the vast majority do in practice.
Maybe, but some of that impression depends on getting the right-wing-iest dipshits to stop yelling NOT FIFTEEN WEEKS NO NO NO WEEKS NO ABORTIONS ALL BABIES YOU'RE A RINO ARGH SCREAM WE PRIMARY YOU NO ABORTIONS EVER GRRRAARARGHLHOWL and then showing up en masse to burn down the capitol for Jesus.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:40 AM on October 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
Maybe, but some of that impression depends on getting the right-wing-iest dipshits to stop yelling NOT FIFTEEN WEEKS NO NO NO WEEKS NO ABORTIONS ALL BABIES YOU'RE A RINO ARGH SCREAM WE PRIMARY YOU NO ABORTIONS EVER GRRRAARARGHLHOWL and then showing up en masse to burn down the capitol for Jesus.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:40 AM on October 31, 2023 [3 favorites]
To be clear I don't think 15 weeks is a good number, and in particular TFMR should be allowed at any stage of gestation in the same way and for the same sorts of reasons as abortion should always be available to save the mother's life.
That 15 weeks is not right does not mean is it not a compromise that might win enough votes for Republicans in Virginia. And if it wins in Virginia it could well win in purple states elsewhere.
posted by plonkee at 8:08 AM on October 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
That 15 weeks is not right does not mean is it not a compromise that might win enough votes for Republicans in Virginia. And if it wins in Virginia it could well win in purple states elsewhere.
posted by plonkee at 8:08 AM on October 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
That position, they say, is a moderate compromise between a total ban and abortions without limits.
This is dishonest because 'abortions without limits' were never legal in the US. Roe v. Wade was that compromise.
posted by LindsayIrene at 8:46 AM on October 31, 2023 [33 favorites]
This is dishonest because 'abortions without limits' were never legal in the US. Roe v. Wade was that compromise.
posted by LindsayIrene at 8:46 AM on October 31, 2023 [33 favorites]
I don't think the data are there to test this yet, but I can easily imagine some people with access being more likely to get an abortion now because it's much more obvious that there's a Republican war on women/people who can get pregnant. I for example would be much less willing to try to carry a high-risk pregnancy.
Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me, and it would be a bitter irony that tighter restrictions mean more people are aborting wanted pregnancies.
Like, there are a lot of circumstances — personal, financial, and medical — which come up to make people consider early abortion of an originally wanted pregnancy. Historically, I think for a lot of people, waiting and watching and revisiting the decision a little later has been the norm, and for at least some of those people, the situation changes such that abortion ends up not being the option they choose. But now that in a lot of places the choice is "now or never", people faced with such a decision don't have the option to wait and see and they just get the abortion rather than risk things getting really bad later.
posted by jackbishop at 8:48 AM on October 31, 2023 [8 favorites]
Yeah, that wouldn't surprise me, and it would be a bitter irony that tighter restrictions mean more people are aborting wanted pregnancies.
Like, there are a lot of circumstances — personal, financial, and medical — which come up to make people consider early abortion of an originally wanted pregnancy. Historically, I think for a lot of people, waiting and watching and revisiting the decision a little later has been the norm, and for at least some of those people, the situation changes such that abortion ends up not being the option they choose. But now that in a lot of places the choice is "now or never", people faced with such a decision don't have the option to wait and see and they just get the abortion rather than risk things getting really bad later.
posted by jackbishop at 8:48 AM on October 31, 2023 [8 favorites]
....Only for people who have the money.
I'm sure everyone here is well aware, but this is a good place to plug regional abortion aid groups. Now is a great time to set up a monthly recurring donation of literally any amount (I do $25/month and don't ever miss it, but I also sent $5-10/month when my budget was tight).
posted by knotty knots at 9:11 AM on October 31, 2023 [10 favorites]
I'm sure everyone here is well aware, but this is a good place to plug regional abortion aid groups. Now is a great time to set up a monthly recurring donation of literally any amount (I do $25/month and don't ever miss it, but I also sent $5-10/month when my budget was tight).
posted by knotty knots at 9:11 AM on October 31, 2023 [10 favorites]
That 15 weeks is not right does not mean is it not a compromise that might win enough votes for Republicans in Virginia.
I am saying that (some) people would only believe that it's actually a compromise if they can get the dipshits to shut the fuck up about their real goals.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:14 AM on October 31, 2023
I am saying that (some) people would only believe that it's actually a compromise if they can get the dipshits to shut the fuck up about their real goals.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 9:14 AM on October 31, 2023
Residents of Ohio will be voting this week to protect abortion within their constitution. Non-residents can participate in phonebanks to remind Ohio residents to vote!
posted by tofu_crouton at 10:04 AM on October 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by tofu_crouton at 10:04 AM on October 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
This is a link to a friend's book [yup it's a friend full disclosure] but relevant in noting the shift from an activist, direct action attempt to take control of abortion to the current distribution of pharmaceuticals - an easer and safer and cheaper method for sure - but one that ends up in profit making and does not confront the fascist backlash against body autonomy: Deep Care: The Radical Activists Who Provided Abortions, Defied the Law, and Fought to Keep Clinics Open, Angela Hume.
posted by latkes at 10:28 AM on October 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
posted by latkes at 10:28 AM on October 31, 2023 [6 favorites]
If that's true, there are religious freedom and anti-Semitic aspects to these laws which should be added to the public debate
It's been part of the public debate since Dobbs, including multiple lawsuits filed in various Florida counties last year.
posted by hanov3r at 10:29 AM on October 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
It's been part of the public debate since Dobbs, including multiple lawsuits filed in various Florida counties last year.
posted by hanov3r at 10:29 AM on October 31, 2023 [7 favorites]
Also a place to send money besides planned parenthood: Most abortions are performed by independent clinics and they need funds.
posted by latkes at 10:30 AM on October 31, 2023 [5 favorites]
posted by latkes at 10:30 AM on October 31, 2023 [5 favorites]
The argument that any particular religion has rules that allow for later abortion thus invalidating abortion bans is not going to get Supreme Court approval. Only right wing forms of Christianity will be granted exemption from any laws by this court. All other religious claims will be dismissed as with a maximum of contempt.
But even more important, banning abortion is part of the Republican Party's agenda, so the Supreme Court did that. Allowing religious exeptions to abortion bans is not part of the Republican Party's agenda so the Supreme Court will not do that.
We're going to see a lot more restrictions on abortion soon. First will be draconian laws banning interstate travel for the purposes of aboriton, and I mean real laws with criminal charges enforced by armed agents of the state not the Texas lawsuit thing. Thomas will doubtless note that Loving established a right of states to enforce their laws on people who go out of state to break those laws.
And as soon as there's another Republican trifecta there's going to be a nationwide ban.
I hope the aid groups are preparing to transition into criminal groups because that's where we're headed.
posted by sotonohito at 11:25 AM on October 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
But even more important, banning abortion is part of the Republican Party's agenda, so the Supreme Court did that. Allowing religious exeptions to abortion bans is not part of the Republican Party's agenda so the Supreme Court will not do that.
We're going to see a lot more restrictions on abortion soon. First will be draconian laws banning interstate travel for the purposes of aboriton, and I mean real laws with criminal charges enforced by armed agents of the state not the Texas lawsuit thing. Thomas will doubtless note that Loving established a right of states to enforce their laws on people who go out of state to break those laws.
And as soon as there's another Republican trifecta there's going to be a nationwide ban.
I hope the aid groups are preparing to transition into criminal groups because that's where we're headed.
posted by sotonohito at 11:25 AM on October 31, 2023 [2 favorites]
Please list sources, sotonohito. The R’s lost bigly in the last election cycle, due to this issue.
posted by Melismata at 1:12 PM on October 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
posted by Melismata at 1:12 PM on October 31, 2023 [1 favorite]
Aid groups have been preparing for decades to transition into criminal groups if necessary. No one who works in this area is unaware for or unprepared for this possibility. But, yes, it’s not gonna be Planned Parenthood that directly transitions into the new Jane Collective. Your local independent abortion fund or clinic, or associated mutual aid group, is where to direct your aid if that’s the specific goal you’re after supporting.
posted by Stacey at 1:59 PM on October 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
posted by Stacey at 1:59 PM on October 31, 2023 [11 favorites]
Melisamata I don't know quite what you mean by sources.
You are, of course, correct that the Republicans lost in 2022 in large part due to Dobbs.
But, I'll point out that "lost bigly" in this context means they won the House by a smaller margin than they were originally projected to win it by, and they "only" got enough victories in the Senate to break a true Democratic majority and force things to a power sharing 50/50 arrangement with VP Harris casting tie breaking votes.
That's not exactly losing, it's just not winning quite as much as we'd expected them to.
But, more important, they won with Dobbs and the Republicans are, whether by design or just because the grab any short term goal they can and it keeps working out for them, pretty good at taking a short term loss for a long term gain.
Dobbs means Roe is dead for at least 40 years. Maybe longer depending on future Presidential elections. And that means in the various right wing evil states women are in danger for the next however long it takes to get Roe reinstated. If it ever is.
And voters have really short memories. 2022 was the year we could expect to see the most backlash due to Dobbs. People normalize things quickly, and voters are lazy. In 2024 I'm doubtful we'll get anywhere near the vote shift we had in 2022. Maybe enough to mater. I hope so.
From 2026 onward I don't think we can realistically hope the Dobbs surge will keep helping Democrats enough to really be noticable. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
And the Republicans are tireless, with a few tiny exceptions like the current situation in Virginia everywhere they have a majority they will be pressing for maximum restrictions. That's not a prediction, that's what has been happening.
Maybe, possibly, they back off for this election cycle. But after that they'll be right back to pushing for total bans everywhere. There's ALREADY national abortion bans being pushed in the House. There's already states criminalizing crossing state lines to get abortions. I see no reason at all to think that will be improving anytime soon.
So yeah, they "lost" 2022 by not winning quite as bigly as everyone expected they would. Maybe they'll "lose" 2024 the same way. But I don't see any good reason to think that's going to persist through 2026 and onward.
posted by sotonohito at 7:24 AM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
You are, of course, correct that the Republicans lost in 2022 in large part due to Dobbs.
But, I'll point out that "lost bigly" in this context means they won the House by a smaller margin than they were originally projected to win it by, and they "only" got enough victories in the Senate to break a true Democratic majority and force things to a power sharing 50/50 arrangement with VP Harris casting tie breaking votes.
That's not exactly losing, it's just not winning quite as much as we'd expected them to.
But, more important, they won with Dobbs and the Republicans are, whether by design or just because the grab any short term goal they can and it keeps working out for them, pretty good at taking a short term loss for a long term gain.
Dobbs means Roe is dead for at least 40 years. Maybe longer depending on future Presidential elections. And that means in the various right wing evil states women are in danger for the next however long it takes to get Roe reinstated. If it ever is.
And voters have really short memories. 2022 was the year we could expect to see the most backlash due to Dobbs. People normalize things quickly, and voters are lazy. In 2024 I'm doubtful we'll get anywhere near the vote shift we had in 2022. Maybe enough to mater. I hope so.
From 2026 onward I don't think we can realistically hope the Dobbs surge will keep helping Democrats enough to really be noticable. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
And the Republicans are tireless, with a few tiny exceptions like the current situation in Virginia everywhere they have a majority they will be pressing for maximum restrictions. That's not a prediction, that's what has been happening.
Maybe, possibly, they back off for this election cycle. But after that they'll be right back to pushing for total bans everywhere. There's ALREADY national abortion bans being pushed in the House. There's already states criminalizing crossing state lines to get abortions. I see no reason at all to think that will be improving anytime soon.
So yeah, they "lost" 2022 by not winning quite as bigly as everyone expected they would. Maybe they'll "lose" 2024 the same way. But I don't see any good reason to think that's going to persist through 2026 and onward.
posted by sotonohito at 7:24 AM on November 1, 2023 [1 favorite]
Mod note: And voters have really short memories. 2022 was the year we could expect to see the most backlash due to Dobbs. People normalize things quickly, and voters are lazy
The women I know haven't normalized having a fundamental right they had most or all of their lives or longer being taken away from them. This is the first national election since Dobbs, and the first chance to punish President Pussygrabber who's bragging about taking away their rights.
Next Tuesday Ohio will vote on adding an amendment PDF to the state constitution that would establish an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment, including but not limited to abortion.
Abortion on the ballot: six US states with elections in 2023
The women I know haven't normalized having a fundamental right they had most or all of their lives or longer being taken away from them. This is the first national election since Dobbs, and the first chance to punish President Pussygrabber who's bragging about taking away their rights.
Next Tuesday Ohio will vote on adding an amendment PDF to the state constitution that would establish an individual right to one’s own reproductive medical treatment, including but not limited to abortion.
n the nearly 17 months since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, candidates and ballot measures backing abortion rights have won in every election, including in conservative states like Kentucky and Kansas — as well as in an August special election in Ohio that served as a proxy battle ahead of next week’s vote.Separetely, "...a group of young voters told USA TODAY abortion is the top issue driving them to the polls, even in this year's off-cycle election."
Abortion on the ballot: six US states with elections in 2023
A year after nationwide rage over the US supreme court’s overturning of Roe v Wade crushed Republican hopes for a “red wave” in the midterms, Democrats are trying to once again harness that anger to defeat Republicans in the relatively few states holding 2023 elections. The GOP, on the other hand, is still scrabbling over how to talk about an issue that could not only cost them seats this year but also lead them to lose the White House in 2024.Democrats are overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?
Conversations with eight Democratic and Republican operatives in swing states show some repeated explanations for this success: the public's general support for abortion access after the Supreme Court reversed the national guarantee for the procedure last year along with angst and anger over Trump's comeback bid, given how divisive he remains -- two factors which might even overcompensate for Biden's sagging approval ratings.posted by kirkaracha (staff) at 11:03 AM on November 1, 2023 [5 favorites]
"Republicans have not had a good election night since before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And, honestly, it seems like post-Roe Republicans couldn't find their groove even if a DJ played their favorite song on repeat," Nuckels said. "So I think Democrats are in a very good position here going forward."
From your lips to Baphomet’s ears, Nuckels.
posted by leotrotsky at 11:28 AM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
posted by leotrotsky at 11:28 AM on November 1, 2023 [2 favorites]
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