Chinese Democracy

January 12, 2024 7:21 PM

Voting begins in Taiwan's critical elections watched closely by China - "Polls opened on Saturday in Taiwan's presidential and parliamentary elections which China has framed as a choice between war and peace and are happening as Beijing ramps up pressure to get the island to accept its sovereignty. Taiwan has been a democratic success story since holding its first direct presidential election in 1996, the culmination of decades of struggle against authoritarian rule and martial law."[1,2,3]

• China satellite launch causes pre-election political storm in Taiwan - "The launch of a Chinese satellite that flew over Taiwan, prompting an erroneous air raid alert, sparked a political storm on the island on Wednesday about China's motives only days out from presidential elections."
• Ignoring Taiwan's complaints, more Chinese balloons spotted over strait - "Taiwan is on high alert for Chinese military and political activity ahead of this Saturday's presidential and parliamentary elections. It says China is exerting military and economic pressure in an attempt to interfere in the elections. China views the island as its own territory, a claim Taiwan's government rejects. Since last month Taiwan's defence ministry has reported several instances of Chinese balloons flying over the Taiwan Strait. It has said over the past week some balloons had flown over Taiwan island near major air bases."
• Taiwan expects China to apply pressure on incoming govt after election - "Taiwan's government believes China is likely to attempt to put pressure on its incoming president after the island goes to the polls on Saturday, including staging military manoeuvres near the island this spring, two senior government officials said. No matter which candidate wins the election, Beijing's military and economic pressure on Taiwan's next leader is likely to increase, said the Taiwanese officials who briefed reporters on condition they not be named."
• Taiwanese pack election rallies, China vows to 'smash independence plots' - "'Without democracy and freedom, we have nothing,' said Jay Liao, 26, a data scientist attending Lai's rally with his husband. 'China could take all this away, including our marriage.'"

also btw...
How do people in China view this weekend's democratic election in Taiwan? - "In Taiwan last year, a Netflix series called 'Wave Makers' made a splash. The show focuses on a fictional presidential campaign in Taiwan and the issue of sexual harassment. It gave the #MeToo movement there a big boost. In China, there is no Netflix, but many here have found ways to watch the show and have been impressed by what it depicts."

In one of the show's most widely quoted lines, a senior party member offers support to a staffer. "Let's not just let this go, OK?" She says, encouraging her to push for justice in the face of sexual harassment. But a high school junior in China named Hannah, who we talked with, likes that line for another reason.

HANNAH: (Through interpreter) For me, it's encouragement to not give up hope for a democratized China. When I hear the language that I use every day to openly and honestly talk about things like the presidency, democracy and ballots, it's really intriguing. And I feel like actually, we could do this here, too.

In photos: Costumes, color and singing candidates — welcome to a Taiwanese election - "The celebratory nature of campaigning in Taiwan does not mean that people on the island aren't taking the election seriously. As every election approaches, the issue of China takes center stage."

posted by kliuless (13 comments total)

I'm technically eligible to vote since I was born there, but apparently Taiwan doesn't permit overseas ballots. I'm impressed that the two Democratic candidates are a Master's degree from Harvard University in Public Health and a Master's degree from Columbia in poli sci. I looked over a couple of wiki pages but didn't see anything about the domestic/foreign policy positions of each party's presidential candidate; I'd like to know more about that.
posted by polymodus at 8:46 PM on January 12 [2 favorites]

This is a pivotal election. The Western media really want to frame it as a choice between war and peace in the Taiwan Strait, but the actual domestic issues are more along the lines of what people everywhere are concerned about - the economy, housing, feeling represented, fatigue with the current government, etc.

Richard Bush at Brookings has a good backgrounder piece on the election and why it’s different this year.

Taiwan Plus has a rundown of the candidates and their policy positions, and will have live coverage of the election in English as well. (Note that it is a government run news agency, and therefore reflects some DPP sentiment).

I’ll be watching closely today because it’s my job, but everyone interested in democracy should be paying attention. Calling Taiwan a “vibrant democracy “ is a bit trite at this point, but it really is. The enthusiasm for the process, and the seriousness with which the population takes voting, is really inspiring.
posted by gemmy at 10:20 PM on January 12 [17 favorites]

Taiwan election: It's not war young voters worry about - it's jobs - "With high home prices and stagnant wages, young voters care more about the economy than Beijing's threats."

@GaryDRawnsley: "I found this cartoon published in the Taipei Times during the 2000 Presidential Election."
posted by kliuless at 10:28 PM on January 12

The DPP candidate William Lai has won the Taiwan Presidential election, with the KMT's Hou and the TPPs Ko both conceding. This gives the DPP an unprecedented third term in a row of the Presidency. In his victory speech, Lai said that Taiwan has chosen to stand on the side of democracy. He said that Taiwan has successfully dealt with election influence from external forces [read PRC]. He also said that under his leadership, Taiwan will continue the path set by President Tsai Ing-wen during the past 8 years. He stressed his hope that China realizes that cross-Strait peace is in the interests of both sides.

The Legislative Yuan (parliament) elections are still up in the air. Results so far.
posted by gemmy at 5:13 AM on January 13 [7 favorites]

Beyond any other consideration, it is very dangerous to the CCP to have a clear example of a functioning democracy next door. Any argument they wish to make about democracy not being appropriate for Chinese culture falls apart.

I spent a few formative years of my life living in Taiwan and today's result is, imho, a great one. 凍蒜！
posted by sudasana at 6:12 AM on January 13 [3 favorites]

Beyond any other consideration, it is very dangerous to the CCP to have a clear example of a functioning democracy next door. Any argument they wish to make about democracy not being appropriate for Chinese culture falls apart.

Is it really? China is autocratic but they don't exactly have to build walls to keep their countryfolk in like the USSR did. There's freedom of movement within the country and with the world at large. For large swaths of the country (but sadly, not all of if) China could convert to democracy tomorrow and nothing would literally change for them and they know it. When people have things to protect they crave stability more than anything because they'd rather keep those things. IMO, if anything, watching the US continually act like a pack of fucking clowns is a perfect counter-example to implementing large scale democracy in China.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:34 AM on January 13 [5 favorites]

Cheers to Taiwan, to peaceful transitions, and to the voters showing that intimidation only hardens resolve. And how bracing to see an election held about real issues, not made-up conspiracies and "culture war" resentments.
posted by homerica at 7:40 AM on January 13

Beyond any other consideration, it is very dangerous to the CCP to have a clear example of a functioning democracy next door.

oh, try this nitter link :P "Look! Taiwan is threatening us."
posted by kliuless at 8:22 AM on January 13 [1 favorite]

>There's freedom of movement within the country and with the world at large.

The hukou system within and requiring permission from one's employer to travel abroad (something that has recently kept Chinese colleagues from joining academic events in Europe) would seem to complicate this statement. There's more advanced methods of citizen control than walls and barbed wire nowadays.
posted by sudasana at 8:36 AM on January 13 [8 favorites]

Thanks for the great post kliuless! I found this interview on Taiwan Plus also insightful "Will China invade Taiwan in 2027?"Optimism all around.
posted by ouke at 10:33 AM on January 13

The hukou system within and requiring permission from one's employer to travel abroad (something that has recently kept Chinese colleagues from joining academic events in Europe) would seem to complicate this statement. There's more advanced methods of citizen control than walls and barbed wire nowadays.

Yes. But there's a dramatically different user experience between middle class Han Chinese who by and large hold political hegemony and Tibetans and Uyghurs being basically trapped by it. Plus Taiwan has been running competitive elections for a quarter of a century. The mainlanders have figured it out by now. I'd say most Chinese are at least indifferent to autocracy as the deal as long as the standard of living keeps improving in China like it has in the past 50 years.

Not to mention one of the biggest problems going forward for the CCP is going to be reigning in the ever growing and rampant inequality. Democracy has been failing at that fight since Reagan. No sane Chinese person is going to look at the West, look at China, and think that Western style democracy will surely be the thing to bring the ultra rich to heel. They want the Jack Mas of the country to be dealt with exactly how the CCP dealt with him.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 11:14 AM on January 13 [2 favorites]

There's still a lot of unstated Western bias in most media takes. Yes, my Taiwanese friends and families care about domestic economy—but guess what? It's the conservative Taiwanese people who are saying (meaning, blaming) the DPP has been driving the economy into the ground with its wastefulness on healthcare and college. And English-language media will never report that Taiwanese people view the West—Americans—with a jaded skepticism. Many of my family friends explicitly say that they don't like our country, Taiwan, being exploited (—economically!) as a proxy between two world powers. Look at the Brookings think-tank article above, it points out that young Taiwanese men are averse to conscription—but this is still the narrow Taiwan vs China framing rather than the global America vs China framing for which the think tank performs its ideological positionality.
posted by polymodus at 3:53 PM on January 13 [1 favorite]

China could convert to democracy tomorrow and nothing would literally change for them and they know it

This makes a lot of assumptions, such as conditions leading to the CCP demise also keeping the entire country unified and not split apart by province or major metro, and the tax system continuing to function to support said union. Plus some thorny questions about who the PLA is accountable to.

There's also a lot of economic questions. I'll limit myself to the sphere I know best: tech. Would democracy end the great firewall? Would daily newscasts be uncensored? What about Google? Would all the state owned enterprises be upended by foreign entrants? WeChat would presumably survive but what are the prospects for Baidu and its employees? Do the solar subsidies go away forever or come back with a vengeance?

Anyways, it seems likely that the current powers believe any peaceful transfer of power is dangerous (perhaps true, at least for themselves) and that Xi will be in charge until he literally dies.
posted by pwnguin at 11:21 PM on January 13 [1 favorite]