Shots fired at Trump rally in Pennsylvania

July 13, 2024 3:46 PM

NYT Live: Former President Donald J. Trump was escorted off the stage by Secret Service agents and into his motorcade just minutes into his rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, after a series of pops that sounded like gunshots rang out. The exact source of the noises was unclear, but Mr. Trump’s ear appeared to be bleeding heavily as he was rushed off the stage. Mr. Trump ducked quickly after the noises began, with the sound coming from the bleachers to the left of where he was standing. As members of the crowd began screaming, Mr. Trump was tackled by Secret Service. Officials shouted for the crowd to duck and cover, whisking members of the news media off the press riser where they had been watching Mr. Trump’s speech. After a brief pause, Mr. Trump rose, surrounded by a group of uniformed Secret Service members. He pumped his fist to the crowd, and then was rushed off the stage and ushered into his motorcade, which quickly left the venue, the Butler Farm Show.
posted by Rhaomi (1180 comments total)

Shots Fired at Trump Rally [C-SPAN]: Gunshot fire is heard at a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and former president and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is escorted off the stage.
posted by mazola at 3:47 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

This isn't good.
posted by mazola at 3:48 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

If this were a Biden rally, they'd be screaming false flag.
posted by betweenthebars at 3:50 PM on July 13 [37 favorites]

NOT ON MY BINGO CARD jmfc!!!!
posted by supermedusa at 3:50 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

What a mess. If the attempted assassin is a leftist then the right will be beyond enraged. If it was someone somehow to Trump’s right, then their prosecution by the Biden Department of Justice will raise conspiracy theories and claims of false flag operations. No good can come of this.
posted by jedicus at 3:50 PM on July 13 [41 favorites]

Questions. Like, an actual gun or an airsoft rifle? How the hell did it get through security?
posted by NoMich at 3:50 PM on July 13

The Trump '24 poster.
posted by Klipspringer at 3:51 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Fucking hell. Now he'll be elected for sure.
posted by johnofjack at 3:52 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

From CNN:

Former President Donald Trump is safe after an incident at his rally, according to Anthony Guglielmi, US Secret Service chief of communications

“An incident occurred the evening of July 13 at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. The Secret Service has implemented protective measures and the former President is safe. This is now an active Secret Service investigation and further information will be released when available,” Guglielmi said in a statement.
posted by Frayed Knot at 3:52 PM on July 13

What I see is a man recklessly and selfishly further endangering the lives of his secret service agents so he can vamp to the crowd and [checks notes] get his shoes.
posted by phunniemee at 3:52 PM on July 13 [55 favorites]

Anyone who remembers the movie 'Bob Roberts' is probably dealing with an ominous feeling of deja vu right now.
posted by spoobnooble 3D: the spoobening at 3:53 PM on July 13 [38 favorites]

yikes.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 3:53 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Hopefully he's OK. There should be no place for violence in politics.
posted by netowl at 3:54 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

Presumably they are already printing mugs and t-shirts of him, bloody, raising his fist and shouting "Fight." Oy. I am really not looking forward to the next four months.
posted by coffeecat at 3:55 PM on July 13 [39 favorites]

Jesus fuck. I'm terrified this means he just won the election.

And maybe I'm just being way overconfident here but I can't see how it could have been anyone to Trump's right. They're mostly for him in hopes of dragging him further right.

This is fucking terrible. And, much as I hate and fear the guy, it's not how to deal with politics. Fuck.

Best case he gets a lot of PR out of it and the right has an even bigger excuse to crack down on the "violent left". Worst case it's the beginning of the Trump dictatorship.
posted by sotonohito at 3:57 PM on July 13 [21 favorites]

This is unprecedented circumstances. It's terrifying, but the doom-saying, especially this early in the thread, is hurting me. Not a one of us has any idea what this will mean for the election.
posted by meese at 3:58 PM on July 13 [106 favorites]

According to NYT updates a bystander may have been hit by a richocheting bullet.
posted by Selena777 at 3:58 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Well, this goes nowhere good. Much of what happens next rides entirely on him, and given, as noted, that he left pumping his fist and yelling “Fight”, there’s not much hope there. Biden administration should immediately appoint an independent special prosecutor to look into the security failure, though.
posted by bixfrankonis at 3:58 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

If this were a Biden rally, they'd be screaming false flag.

My lefty Facebook friends are already suggesting that this was a Trump operation to make him seem like a martyr and win the election.
posted by Well I never at 3:58 PM on July 13 [22 favorites]

"There should be no place for violence in politics." I'd agree, but I don't think Donald Trump would.
posted by c'mon sea legs at 3:59 PM on July 13 [85 favorites]

According to NYT updates a bystander may have been hit by a richocheting bullet.

Ugh. I was wondering this - based on the video, there were a lot of shots.
posted by coffeecat at 4:00 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Even more immediately worrying than the prospects of what this means for the election, is how a whole bunch of heavily armed and deeply emotionally disturbed Trump supporters are going to react to this.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:01 PM on July 13 [39 favorites]

I just cannot get over him rising up above Secret Service protection for a brief photo op. Was there any indication the shooter was down or controlled? Those are very strong people! Trained to let him do exactly Not This in This Exact Moment.
posted by Slackermagee at 4:05 PM on July 13 [25 favorites]

Uuugghhhhh I just scheduled my annual training to work as an election worker……..at this moment I am still going through with it and plan to be witness to free and fair elections.
posted by tarantula at 4:05 PM on July 13 [32 favorites]

This is, and I am not exaggerating, one of the worse possible things to happen w/r/t this election.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:05 PM on July 13 [67 favorites]

I am absolutely terrified about the potential consequences of this (for everyone but especially as a trans leftist in the DC area) and also want to remind everyone 1) we don't have a lot of information yet and it'll take a while for things to become clear 2) please be EXTREMELY careful about what you say, and to whom, and in which channels. I think this is a really bad thing to happen for a lot of reasons and I'm also afraid incautious people are going to be at minimum hassled based on things they say and do at this moment. Protect and care for yourselves, emotionally and legally as well as physically.
posted by an octopus IRL at 4:06 PM on July 13 [51 favorites]

The title of this post is clearly speculative. There was an incident. As of the time of me writing this comment, it is not yet clear what precisely happened.
posted by tclark at 4:07 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

Fucking hell. Just in the general holistic sense. Christ.
posted by cortex at 4:08 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

> The title of this post is clearly speculative. There was an incident. As of the time of me writing this comment, it is not yet clear what precisely happened.

Duplicate the "at" and you should be ok.
posted by krisjohn at 4:09 PM on July 13

This is, and I am not exaggerating, one of the worse possible things to happen w/r/t this election.

Worst things so far.
posted by lalochezia at 4:11 PM on July 13 [56 favorites]

According to a Pittsburgh-based journalist on Twitter: Butler County District Attorney tells me one person is BELIEVED to be dead.

Fuck.
posted by coffeecat at 4:11 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

[comment ported over from the previous election thread]:

Could this even be staged? Like just grazing him?

Is there any video/photo evidence of the blood prior to Trump dropping to the ground? Seems like having several Secret Service members pile on top of you in that moment of chaos provides plenty of opportunity to get cut without having been shot. Not saying this happened; just saying that’s the obvious alternative if he wasn’t shot.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 4:12 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

If there was a shooter, I want to know who it was and I want their motive to be made VERY, VERY public - so that if it was someone on the left that we can start denouncing it now, or if it was someone on the right we can make that a major talking point.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:13 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

Just remember that now is not the time to discuss gun control. And given a Trump rally, how many people do you think will have managed to smuggle in weapons for their 'personal safety'. This is going to be an absolute s#!t show from beginning to end. The best, of the many terrible possibilities, I can see is that the shooter is suffering from some sort of psychotic episode and as such was trying to kill Trump because they thought he was a reptilian, or some other delusion. Next best is it was someone with an air soft trying to prove that Trump's security is insufficient. I don't count on either of those turning out to be the case.

Whatever the investigation turns up, this is going to turn the heat up in US politics a hundred fold.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 4:13 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

The Breaking News Consumer's Handbook

1. In the immediate aftermath, news outlets will get it wrong.
2. Don't trust anonymous sources.
3. Don't trust stories that cite another news outlet as the source of the information.
4. There's almost never a second shooter.
5. Pay attention to the language the media uses:

"We are receiving reports" - could mean anything.
"We are seeking confirmation" - they don't have it.
"We have learned" - means it has a scoop or is going out on a limb.

6. Look for news outlets close to the incident.
7. Compare multiple sources.
8. Big news brings out the fakers. And Photoshoppers.
9. Beware reflexive retweeting.

posted by EndsOfInvention at 4:14 PM on July 13 [137 favorites]

trying to kill Trump because they thought he was a reptilian

Do we have evidence that he's not?
posted by escape from the potato planet at 4:15 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Wikipedia: Estimated number of civilian guns per capita by country

For every 100 people, United States has 120.5 civilian held firearms. For which number, the Supreme Court has had some influence.
posted by y2karl at 4:16 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Please keep in mind the breaking news consumer handbook:

1. In the immediate aftermath, news outlets will get it wrong.
2. Don't trust anonymous sources.
3. Don't trust stories that cite another news outlet as the source of the information.
4. There's almost never a second shooter.
5. Pay attention to the language the media uses. "We are getting reports"... could mean anything. "We are seeking confirmation"... means they don't have it. "[News outlet] has learned"... means it has a scoop or is going out on a limb.

posted by signal at 4:16 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

Is there any video/photo evidence of the blood prior to Trump dropping to the ground?

The microphones picked up what sounded like a bullet crack slightly before the gunfire sound, and there's a cloud of debris at the same time. I think he got shot, guys.
posted by netowl at 4:17 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Just remember that now is not the time to discuss gun control

You don't need gun control when you have ^{thoughts and prayers.}
posted by phunniemee at 4:17 PM on July 13 [65 favorites]

Jinx
posted by signal at 4:17 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

watching the footage: sounded to me like a few clusters of shots and their echos. The first set made contact with his ear and he realized wtf and dropped.
There is a few more shots & echos and a final shot, if they visually ID'd the shooter this was likely the return fire from the Secret Service.
posted by djseafood at 4:17 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

I just cannot get over him rising up above Secret Service protection for a brief photo op.

Ugh, it's such a good photo (and a good photo for him) though. It's going to be everywhere - Musk already reposted it.
posted by true at 4:18 PM on July 13 [22 favorites]

Trump the living martyr
posted by robbyrobs at 4:19 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

This election is going to be decided on turnout. Trump getting shot won't make him and project 2025 any more appealing to anyone not already inclined that way.

God willing this was a right-winger or some obvious swivel-eyed loon.
posted by Frowner at 4:20 PM on July 13 [37 favorites]

I hope they find the person immediately.

Here’s a stream from the rally. The incident begins around 2:33:55ish. He’s turned to the side, then cracks that sound like shots begin, and he clutches his right ear — the ear that’s closest to the grandstand behind him.
posted by mochapickle at 4:20 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Law enforcement official briefed on #Butler shooting tells me the suspect is down.
posted by robbyrobs at 4:20 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

The only good outcome I can imagine is that this is some pro-life nut who is upset that Trump has softened on it.
posted by coffeecat at 4:21 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

When he first puts his hand to his ear and pulls it away, there is no visible blood from the CNN video, but the crowd was full of cameras so alternate versions could be coming.
posted by funkaspuck at 4:21 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

From a Washington Post correspondent:

Butler county district attorney Richard Goldinger tells me Trump was grazed by gunfire but is safe. An audience member was killed and the shooter is dead. Another person is in serious condition, the prosecutor said.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 4:22 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

What does ‘the suspect is down’ mean?
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:22 PM on July 13

Fuck him and his fucking sieg hiel he did whyn isnt that the photo, I know it will be the closed fist photo instead. what is this fucking country

it feels so awful
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:23 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

“The important thing to know about an assassination or an attempted assassination is not who fired the shot, but who paid for the bullet.”
― Eric Ambler, The Mask of Dimitrios
posted by robbyrobs at 4:23 PM on July 13 [30 favorites]

Someone check Trump for razorblades. I don't buy it.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:24 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

I'm going to chime in as someone who has been shot. I know I'm not the only one on MeFi who has.

Getting shot is a really big deal. Watching someone else get shot is a really big deal. I think that's probably obvious, and yet it understates the experience. I would very, very, very gently ask that folks remember that there are humans here who will read your comments, who are seeing in today memories of their very own worst day, and who could use the soft and thoughtful dialogue this place usually brings forward, as everywhere else online is going to be Loud Opinions and Resigned Jokes for the coming days.

I don't think I have the right to dictate what you do or say, and I really debated saying this at all. I am quietly making this ask on behalf of the other MeFites who might not be in a headspace to do so, but I want to emphasize that I respect everyone's right to communicate however they want to.
posted by moosetracks at 4:24 PM on July 13 [178 favorites]

What does ‘the suspect is down’ mean?

Incapacitated, technically, but with major overtones of “dead”.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 4:25 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

JUST IN: Shooter dead and rally attendee killed at Trump event in Pennsylvania, Butler County district attorney tells AP
posted by pjsky at 4:25 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

The only good outcome I can imagine is that this is some pro-abortion nut who is upset that Trump has softened on it.

Ugh, missed the edit window, but I meant "pro-life nut" - bad typo on my part.
posted by coffeecat at 4:26 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

he shoulda ordered the maga cap with earflaps
posted by mittens at 4:26 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Mod note: Just a mod chiming in to say yes we're aware and asking folks to be cool and wait for the news to come in.

Speaking of, is there any particular source or channel that people would recommend for updates?
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:26 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

I have to admit, I'm most alarmed by the CNN footage that shows crowd members screaming and flipping off the camera.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:27 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

He has been encouraging political violence for years. He has normalized the idea of killing people who are not on your side. It is not surprising that something like this happened.
posted by azpenguin at 4:28 PM on July 13 [64 favorites]

Mod note: Title changed with OP's permission to reflect uncertainty of what has occurred.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:29 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

Video clips contain sounds which sound a lot like gunfire. Up to 10 separate shots, starting with a quick succession of around 3 at the start.

Trump was facing (stage) right when the first one occurs. Blood appears to be around the right side of his head. In video footage people behind the podium look to their (stage) right. Seems likely that's where the shooter was.
posted by doctornemo at 4:29 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Fuuuuuck. I live not far from here. I already keep a pretty low profile about my political beliefs, but I am dreading what's going to happen in the next few days/months/years. This is absolutely going to radicalize the already radical Trumpers here. I already resigned myself to Trump winning, but now I have to worry about what people are going to do if I don't go along sufficiently energetically with whatever godawfulness they say.
posted by dirigibleman at 4:34 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

Stay away from the conspiracy “this was staged” or stuff like that. If somehow that were to be confirmed then great, have at it, but leave the false flag BS to Alex Jones and friends.
posted by azpenguin at 4:35 PM on July 13 [55 favorites]

witness on NBC reports of a sniper on a water tower. this would be extremely difficult to stage but not impossible
posted by clavdivs at 4:35 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Congrats to Amazon Prime Video and Eric Kripke for their extremely impressive viral marketing for the season finale of The Boys
posted by ejs at 4:35 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

He has never struck me as someone who remains calm in a crisis. He didn’t seem worried about a second shooter at all.
🤔
posted by funkaspuck at 4:35 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

I mean, it looks REALLY STAGED.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 4:35 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

Has anybody seen Rittenhouse?
posted by stet at 4:36 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

Nearly every person at that rally probably was recording Trump's speech. There will be multiple videos from every possible angle. There should be very little doubt about what happened once they collect all the footage. Not that MAGAts will believe the truth. The wild ass conspiracy theories have already begun.
posted by pjsky at 4:37 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

Audience member injured, another dead. So, uh, probably not staged. What a weird time to be alive.
posted by ShawnStruck at 4:38 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

Has it really been since Reagan that America has had a president seriously shot at?
posted by doctornemo at 4:38 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

I am disturbed by how many of you jumped to immediate conspiracy theory when you all would be the people first in line mocking the right for doing the same.
posted by tzikeh at 4:38 PM on July 13 [95 favorites]

He has been encouraging political violence for years. He has normalized the idea of killing people who are not on your side. It is not surprising that something like this happened.

Not to mention that he led an attempted coup on January 6, 2021 to overthrow a free and fair election. Something the wind, something the whirlwind.
posted by y2karl at 4:39 PM on July 13 [25 favorites]

A few possibilities, assuming one shooter (all sounds sounded identical, so...):
-shooter is immigrant. Ideal for Trump's campaign.
-shooter is a loon, but with some right wing signs. GOP tries hard to move on.
-shooter " " " " " " left wing notes. Perfect for a call to crack down on the left.
posted by doctornemo at 4:39 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

This is really…really…traumatizing, though that word seems wholly inadequate to the moment. Traumatizing not just to individuals, but to our whole political discourse and process. Tensions are already so high, and stress is over the top even before this.

For my own sanity, I’m not going to doom-scroll the slow trickle of information of this terrible event this evening. I think I need to log off and go take a hot soak bath or listen to some light jazz or something. It will be all over the Sunday shows, anyway.

Goodnight MeFi. Stay safe.
posted by darkstar at 4:40 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

The wild ass conspiracy theories have already begun.
Including right here.
posted by doctornemo at 4:40 PM on July 13 [23 favorites]

trying to kill Trump because they thought he was a reptilian

Do we have evidence that he's not?

Stop this antisemitic bullshit IMMEDIATELY.
posted by tzikeh at 4:41 PM on July 13 [31 favorites]

I don't want to dip into conspiracy (to be clear, I'm not suggesting I think any of this is true), but if anyone could be so selfish to arrange an assassination attempt that ends up killing some of their supporters, it's Trump. And like, I really, really, want this to turn out to be the worst-planned false flag in history, with Giuliani somehow involved, and finally Trump will go to jail. Things look really bleak right now, but a girl can dream.
posted by coffeecat at 4:41 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

I will say I'd kind of like things regarding Trump to stop happening. It's exhausting.
posted by mittens at 4:41 PM on July 13 [33 favorites]

Knowing there are bullets going right into the crowd behind Trump makes that video upsetting.
posted by LindsayIrene at 4:42 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

Not that MAGAts will believe the truth. The wild ass conspiracy theories have already begun.

I wonder if any of them will step forward and "confess" to being crisis actors, just to keep the dream alive.
posted by phunniemee at 4:42 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

For what its worth, I just can't see anyone moving from "this dude is a total dumpster fire with views that I loathe" to "gosh, somebody shot at him so now he's my candidate." I mean, morons I guess, but he already has that group locked down.
posted by Joey Michaels at 4:42 PM on July 13 [34 favorites]

If the dead audience-member turns out to have been killed by the Secret Service in response to a staged situation, I’m not going to be surprised in the slightest. Unlikely, sure, but… look around, this whole year has been unlikely.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 4:42 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Could it be that this was a shot fired by someone in the audience meant for someone besides Trump? You know an argument between persons in the audience?
posted by robbyrobs at 4:43 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Also don’t panic about this flipping the election. There’s still almost four months until Election Day and he’s gonna be the same asshole he always has. His supporters were going to be unhinged anyway.
posted by azpenguin at 4:44 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

something something I like Presidents who weren't shot
posted by phunniemee at 4:44 PM on July 13 [44 favorites]

On the reality front: a reliable poster on twitter retweeted an interview with a doctor at the rally who tried to help the bystander who was killed. The doctor had a lot of blood on his shirt. I'm pretty sure that this was a real shooting. I know that these people are all monsters, but I still don't believe that they would stage a fake shooting that was actually likely to kill people in the crowd and end with the shooter dead. We have pretty good histories of shady and monstrous things that terrible people do to manipulate the narrative and they are not generally of that nature. I think even the Trump campaign would flinch from doing that.
posted by Frowner at 4:44 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

AP: shooter and one audience member dead.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-vp-vance-rubio-7c7ba6b99b5f38d2d840ed95b2fdc3e5
posted by doctornemo at 4:44 PM on July 13

As much as I don't put anything past Trump, and as much as the majority of political violence is committed by the extreme right, it's just wishful thinking to assume that this was staged.

I'm prepared to learn that this was a frightened, desperate, and possibly (but not necessarily) mentally ill person with left-wing views who genuinely believed that this was the best way to stop Trump. And that Trump will milk this all the way to the White House, and his followers will use it as justification for retaliatory violence.
posted by Kutsuwamushi at 4:44 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

Could it be that this was a shot fired by someone in the audience meant for someone besides Trump? You know an argument between persons in the audience?

Everyone seems to look off to their right, not out into the crowd, which seems like a weird angle for it to have been that.
posted by Blue Jello Elf at 4:45 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

I mean, considering how many people felt like they had to vote for him in the face of all the criminal charges, this will definitely fire up his base. Sad, but true.
posted by coffeecat at 4:45 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

CNN just now:

The shooter and one audience member are dead after a shooting at Donald Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania, according to Butler County District Attorney Richard Goldinger.

The district attorney also said Trump is going to be OK and was removed by the US Secret Service. The official said a second spectator is in serious condition.
posted by doctornemo at 4:46 PM on July 13

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the three men on Trump’s shortlist for vice president, all quickly sent out statements expressing concern for the former president, with Rubio sharing an image taken as Trump was escorted off stage with his fist in the air and a streak of blood on his face along with the words “God protected President Trump.”

More like the devil takes care of his own.
posted by betweenthebars at 4:47 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

"Sic semper tyrannis, motherfucker"

The sort of thing I want to say is not allowed to be said here.

Such thoughts are better left unsaid.
posted by y2karl at 4:47 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

I get the impulse to think this was staged. I get it. Mostly because we all think deep down Trump is a coward, so HOW could he possibly appear so strong after an attempt on his life? The photos are also unbelievably potent propaganda, so yes it almost appears unbelievable that it wasn't staged.

I think we need to apply Occam's razor. The amount of levels of complexity that would have to be involved to make it staged. Versus the likelier reality that a chaotic plot went off and failed, and Trump did indeed go down and was covered for awhile while the threat was assessed. TFG heard the SS say "shooter is down." He knew it was clear. The SS would not have raised him up and started to get him out of there if the threat wasn't neutralized.

Did we all forget how shameless of an opportunist this asshole is?

He isn't brave, not by a long shot, but he quickly realized the golden opportunity he was handed. An attempt went off on his life, he survived. He's now heard several times that the scene is clear, and he's back on his feet surrounded by protection. The showman in him instinctively knew what to do to make the best of the situation. He's a shitty opportunist that somehow knows how to garner the most attention, so he pumped his first and shouted and appeared "tough." Because he knew how powerful that would look in the moment (and that he was safe), not because he's brave.

But the media narrative will of course be "look how brave and strong he was while still in danger." And that is what makes this so terrifying.
posted by andruwjones26 at 4:48 PM on July 13 [55 favorites]

Why the fuck did the DA say Trump was OK?

I hope Bidens team is being up security for ALL Democrats because there are going to be a lot of right wingers who will see this as a license to start killing.
posted by sotonohito at 4:50 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

JUST IN: Law enforcement officials say shooting at Trump rally is being investigated as attempted assassination of ex-president
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The shooting at former President Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania is being investigated as an attempted assassination of the former president and presumptive Republican nominee, law enforcement officials say.

Two officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the ongoing investigation publication.

The shooter was not an attendee at the rally and was killed by U.S. Secret Service agents, the official said.
posted by pjsky at 4:50 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

okay one more comment: do you think this will change his rallies at all?
posted by mittens at 4:50 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

> Could it be that this was a shot fired by someone in the audience meant for someone besides Trump? You know an argument between persons in the audience?

Everyone seems to look off to their right, not out into the crowd, which seems like a weird angle for it to have been that.

Why would that be odd? He was at an outdoor rally, and it's very possible that two people could have been getting into some kind of tussle anywhere in the area.

And personally I'm hoping this was the root of this - something that the right can neither claim nor pin on the left.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 4:51 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Mod note: Couple of comments removed. Do not wish or cheer for violence.
posted by Brandon Blatcher (staff) at 4:51 PM on July 13 [25 favorites]

Trump's Black Power salute just seems really...I mean, if this is real, it seems terribly unlikely.

RIGHT AFTER THAT HE DOES THE NAZI SALUTE it's friggin insane no one is going to screen cap that instead?
posted by tiny frying pan at 4:51 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

What I see is a man recklessly and selfishly further endangering the lives of his secret service agents so he can vamp to the crowd and [checks notes] get his shoes.

I don't know about the shoes part, but this is part for the course for Trump. Remember he's a veteran of tv and tv-stage (wrestling), not to mention three presidential campaigns. He knows the value of a beau geste - and, to be fair, probably wanted to reassure the crowd that he was alive.

This isn't just Trump, of course. Presidential politics has been about the image since 1960.
posted by doctornemo at 4:52 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

I was heartened to see that the rally audience seemed very small.
posted by chavenet at 4:54 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

My Associated Press live-updates just served me one hell of an ad.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 4:54 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

Has everyone gone mad?
posted by Reverend John at 4:55 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

molly conger: "just a reminder from an obsessive federal court watcher: if there’s even a sliver of a possibility that a US attorney might squint at that post & see 18 usc 875 or 115, just log off. take a walk. i’m sure it was a great joke & we would’ve loved it, but the judge will not retweet."
posted by mittens at 4:55 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

Ok, so here is a video of witness on CNN via Twitter. He claims that many in the crowd saw a man with a riffle climbing army-style up a roof of a nearby building. He claims the police were slow to respond to this. It seems like at the very least, security was not great.
posted by coffeecat at 4:55 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

From CNN, a photo from behind Trump's right, showing the bloody ear.
posted by doctornemo at 4:56 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

I was heartened to see that the rally audience seemed very small.

There had been earlier reports of several attendees hospitalized for heat stroke due to lack of shade and water.
posted by chimpsonfilm at 4:57 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

AP: Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita responded to the shooting with a post on X.

“well of course they tried too keep him off the ballot , they tried to put him in jail and now you see this …,” he wrote.

The post was later deleted.
posted by mittens at 4:58 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

[making a Marge Simpson frustration groan]
posted by not_on_display at 4:59 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

He claims that many in the crowd saw a man with a riffle climbing army-style up a roof of a nearby building.

I’d wait until we have a much better idea of what actually happened. If people on the crowd were seeing him but the Secret Service didn’t, that would be surprising to me. If you’ve ever been to a campaign event with a former president, the Secret Service is everywhere and they’re watching a lot of shit.
posted by azpenguin at 4:59 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

What I see is a man recklessly and selfishly further endangering the lives of his secret service agents so he can vamp to the crowd and [checks notes] get his shoes.

When I got shot in the head, I can assure you I also did things that were not clearly logical and were probably selfish. It's almost like, I don't know, getting shot in the fucking head is a thing that leads to not thinking clearly for a few minutes.
posted by moosetracks at 4:59 PM on July 13 [76 favorites]

NYT summary just now:

An armed person fired a weapon at former President Donald J. Trump at his rally in Butler, Pa., on Saturday, according to a U.S. official and two people briefed on the matter. One rally attendee and the suspected shooter were killed, the two people briefed on the matter said.

Mr. Trump was “fine,” according to a spokesman for his campaign. He was escorted off the stage by Secret Service agents and into his motorcade, with his face and ear were bloodied as he was rushed off the stage. As he was escorted to his motorcade, he pumped his fist in a defiant gesture to the crowd.
posted by doctornemo at 4:59 PM on July 13

The shooter was not an attendee at the rally and was killed by U.S. Secret Service agents, the official said

If they were in the crowd, then by definition they were an attendee at the rally. What could that statement possibly mean?
posted by thecjm at 4:59 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Meanwhile Mike Collins, Congressional Rep of Georgia, has made a joke on Twitter about Biden being behind this. I'm obviously not going to link to it, but god damn.
posted by coffeecat at 4:59 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

So.. does anybody have an actual photo or video of the nazi salute? I've watched the video a few times and I don't see anything that looks more suspicious than a wave.
posted by zug at 5:00 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Third comment on this thread is "Reichstag fire."

As Jesse Walker observed, we're all susceptible to conspiracy thinking.
posted by doctornemo at 5:00 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

If they were in the crowd, then by definition they were an attendee at the rally.

If they were on/at a building outside the venue, they were not a rally attendee.
posted by tclark at 5:01 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

thecjm, it sounds like from the one testimony of someone there (that I just linked to) that the shooter was on a rooftop outside of the rally.
posted by coffeecat at 5:01 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Whatever their political alignment the shooter was definitely to the right of Trump
posted by chavenet at 5:02 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

If only the right hadn't made the concept of false-flag such a toxic signal that the person who uses the phrase is immediately outed as a believer in the most batshit insane bullshit available. My immediate response, mentally, was false-flag, which my brain immediately responded to with "hush, you idiot, do you want to sound like fucking Alex Jones?"
posted by Ghidorah at 5:02 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

Visible snipers are de rigeur these days, even for campus gatherings. I'd be more surprised for there to not be a Tyranno-vision Panopti-Sniper framed for whatever social media is popular these days.

Call me old fashioned, but in my day, snipers were fired from concealment, not from selfie opportunities.
posted by stet at 5:02 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

I was hoping the worst news today was the passing of Richard Simmons.
posted by alex_skazat at 5:03 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

does anybody have an actual photo of the nazi salute? I've watched the video a few times and I don't see anything that looks more suspicious than a wave.

I too did Nazi it.
posted by deludingmyself at 5:03 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

"If they were in the crowd, then by definition they were an attendee at the rally. What could that statement possibly mean?"

There are two conflicting reports, as is common this soon after. One report puts the shooter in the crowd, the other on a roof overlooking the event.

In other words, we don't know what's happened yet. Take nothing as the accurate.

This earlier comment remains excellent advice for the next day or so.
posted by Frayed Knot at 5:03 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

May getting shot help his campaign as much as it helped George Wallace’s
posted by chainringtattoo at 5:04 PM on July 13 [31 favorites]

It seems like at the very least, security was not great.

pay your vendors.

posted by alex_skazat at 5:05 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

Honestly, if you don't think Trump would stage an assassination attempt, have we even been watching the same guy? The felon who claimed the election was stolen from him and then started a coup? I think a person would have to be very naive NOT to start from the assumption that it was fake.

If people are dead, I accept that Trump's people are probably not behind this, mostly because they're too incompetent.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:05 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

I was hoping the worst news today was the passing of Richard Simmons.

A-and that was before Dr. Ruth died
posted by chavenet at 5:05 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

Biden campaign to pause TV ads, supporter messaging
By ZEKE MILLER

"After the shooting at Trump’s rally the Biden campaign is pausing all messaging to supporters and is working to pull down all of its television ads as quickly as possible, the campaign said."


THIS MAKES NO F*CKING SENSE TO ME!!! Trump will be ramping up ads, probably implying, or outright blaming Biden for the shooting. JFC
posted by pjsky at 5:05 PM on July 13 [58 favorites]

FWIW, to me Trump's reaction is very real. I don't think he could pull off an acting gig of that level, or of any level for that matter.
posted by zardoz at 5:06 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

The thing about being a chaos-person is, you understand how to profit from whatever crazy things happen. I was thinking about that, when suddenly this came up on the AP: "After the shooting at Trump’s rally the Biden campaign is pausing all messaging to supporters and is working to pull down all of its television ads as quickly as possible, the campaign said." What a poor decision. What a poor way to deal with chaos. (jinx!)
posted by mittens at 5:06 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

One report puts the shooter in the crowd

Could someone link to this reporting? From what I’ve seen it seems to have gone from “location of shooter unknown” to “shooter on roof”, but it’s easy to miss things.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:06 PM on July 13

My money right now is on a real assassination attempt by a casual shooter who didn’t practice enough.
posted by corb at 5:07 PM on July 13 [32 favorites]

The T-shirts with that photo will be online for sale tomorrow.

I have a lot of thoughts on this that I am not permitted to say in public. Other than "somehow this will only make him more electable, because everything always goes right for him (except those pesky felonies that will probably be disappearing off his record soon).

THIS MAKES NO F*CKING SENSE TO ME!!! Trump will be ramping up ads, probably implying, or outright blaming Biden for the shooting. JFC

It looks tacky for "the good guys" to be all "vote for me" while someone got shot at, I'd guess. But I agree with the last sentence.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:08 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Oh god, the current rumor is he wasn't hit by a bullet, but by the glass from a shattered teleprompter.
posted by mittens at 5:08 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

I thought about going camping somewhere with no cell service this weekend but it’s just too hot. Woulda been nice to escape this noise. Everything is gonna be loud as hell for a while. Just like the entire Trump presidency.
posted by azpenguin at 5:08 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

After the shooting at Trump’s rally the Biden campaign is pausing all messaging

Democrats being afraid to say anything at all after this will be 5x more damaging to the cause than anything the Republicans will choose to say.
posted by penduluum at 5:08 PM on July 13 [27 favorites]

NYT is reporting the shooter and one attendee is dead, one attendee is wounded. Biden will deliver remarks shortly.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:09 PM on July 13

>but by the glass from a shattered teleprompter

I assumed they were bullet deflectors when I was a kid
posted by torokunai at 5:11 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

Democrats being afraid to say anything at all after this will be 5x more damaging to the cause than anything the Republicans will choose to say.

It’s not a perma-pause or anything. Taking a couple of days off from attacks after a major crisis event is normal in campaigns. They’ll be back hitting him with the ads in a few days.
posted by azpenguin at 5:14 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

I also have to say that Donald Trump is the luckiest motherfucker I have ever seen.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:14 PM on July 13 [59 favorites]

> Meanwhile Mike Collins, Congressional Rep of Georgia, has made a joke on Twitter about Biden being behind this.

Well, he is immune from prosecution.
posted by krisjohn at 5:16 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

> Has everyone gone mad?

yes
posted by dis_integration at 5:16 PM on July 13 [39 favorites]

It looks tacky for "the good guys" to be all "vote for me" while someone got shot at, I'd guess.
Yes and I would 100% agree with this IF Trump was a normal candidate, not a wannabe dictator, and we weren't in the middle of a full on fascist takeover of this country. Authoritarian shitweasels are very successfully plotting the demise of the USA and now is not the time for "the good guys" to be polite!!!
posted by pjsky at 5:17 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

The moments just prior to this news hitting my feed, I was reading a Washington Post article from two days ago about how the Heritage Foundation folks are “war gaming” how the election will become illegitimate and how to respond to each scenario — with the money quote being about how there’s a 100% chance it will be illegitimate unless Trump wins. So they are shamelessly inventing crap. How can one not think these are people who would be on board with another Reichstag?

So I forgive myself if the first thing I thought, when the news from Trump’s rally came in, was that surviving with a bloody ear was too “perfect” of a scenario for their purposes, and that I shouldn’t believe it until it was properly vetted? It seems the evidence that it was a genuine assassination attempt is piling up though.

It is all to easy to imagine someone looking at what Trump and people who support him are saying — the Heritage Foundation, billionaires like Musk — and finding it profoundly disturbing, wondering how they can be stopped.

Instead, this. May it be a wake-up call to some, at least.
posted by brambleboy at 5:17 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

The old phrase is "the luck of the devil".
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:17 PM on July 13 [21 favorites]

Trump will be ramping up ads, probably implying, or outright blaming Biden for the shooting. JFC

I don't think that hurts Biden, fwiw. Rhetorical attacks only work when they play into the dominant narrative, and the narrative about Biden is sleepy Joe, the doddering, useless old guy. Blaming him for an assassination attempt isn't likely to stick because it implies a degree of activeness that doesn't jibe with their smears on Biden.

So let's all pray that the shooter wasn't from any group that it would stick to.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:18 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

these attempts to get biden to drop out of the race are becoming increasingly convoluted
posted by logicpunk at 5:19 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

For those of you who have worried about the teleprompter's health, I have reviewed the video and it looks fine.
posted by mittens at 5:19 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

this was probably a real assassination attempt and you should brace yourself for the details about the shooter and even more for the backlash. if a trump presidency wasn’t scary enough violence is guaranteed now. fuck this
posted by dis_integration at 5:19 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

This is awful. I’m glad he’s ok. 1 innocent dead. 1 shooter dead.

The next few months are going to be terrible. And Trump probably just won reelection, which is terrifying. He was already unhinged. Now he’s going to be way beyond that.

Someone should set up a betting pool to see how long Trump takes to blame Biden for trying to have him assassinated

Pretty much everyone who has even a little sympathy for Trump will assume this was the case and vote for him.

Not good, not good at all.
posted by teece303 at 5:20 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

…the narrative about Biden is sleepy Joe, the doddering, useless old guy.

Unless he is leading the most sophisticated political crime family the world has ever know.
posted by Ignorantsavage at 5:20 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

"Trump arranged it himself" is a ridiculous conspiracy theory. One of the bullets grazed his ear. Even a top sniper couldn't be certain to miss that close. This is real life, not the movies.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:20 PM on July 13 [25 favorites]

The RNC convention is going to be nuts.
posted by coffeecat at 5:21 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

And Trump probably just won reelection, which is terrifying. He was already unhinged. Now he’s going to be way beyond that.

That is absolutely, 100% not true. He is not the first candidate to survive an assassination attempt, and several of them have lost their elections. This sucks, mostly because political violence always, always sucks. But do not go overboard. Shit happens, and we figure out how to deal with it and go on working to win the election.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 5:22 PM on July 13 [98 favorites]

If anything this helps Biden -- the conversation about replacing him is likely done. Does that help the DNC? Unknown.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:22 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

One of the bullets grazed his ear.

I believe it was fragments of either the teleprompter screen or the plexiglass shields that are up for this reason.
posted by argybarg at 5:22 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

One of the bullets grazed his ear.

It's not even known to the public for certain yet that the ear was grazed (it may have been, but that remains to be seen). Occam's razor in lack of more sure information is that when a nearly-80-year-old man is tackled by a bunch of Secret Service agents, it wouldn't take much to cause an injury like that which generates a lot of blood.
posted by tclark at 5:22 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

One of the bullets grazed his ear. Even a top sniper couldn't be certain to miss that close.

Not saying it's fake, but the reporting is now it was the glass of the teleprompter. Which will make some wonder if it was staged.
posted by coffeecat at 5:23 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Biden's press conference sounds coherent, cogent, and most of all normal.
posted by mittens at 5:24 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

Ugh. I do not want a second term for Mr. Trump. I think Project 2025 is a blight waiting to destroy lives across our country and roll back progress to a time when many people feared for their lives just because of who they loved or their gender identity or what "color" they were. That said, the way we decide leadership in this country is by VOTING. I get that it's skewed to favor one party over the other, that large unpopulated areas of the country disproportionately favor one party over the other, but we... we decide leadership by VOTING, not by assassination. *sigh*
posted by which_chick at 5:25 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Reviewing the rally footage, there are two men in dark clothes on the rooftop of the building just to the left of the grandstand. Are those secret service or are they camera operators?
posted by mochapickle at 5:26 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

When Glenn Grothman declared angrily that America needs to be dragged back to the 1960s this week, I'm hoping this wasn't quite what he meant.
posted by delfin at 5:26 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Skipping to the bottom to comment. My ex was there as a journalist for the local paper. He called me minutes after the incident to assure me he was safe. He sounded shaken. He did not sound doubtful that shots had truly been fired. His first concern, even before getting the story out, was assuring his loved ones he was okay. That’s what it was like if one was there and that’s informing my opinion of “was this real?”
posted by epj at 5:26 PM on July 13 [87 favorites]

reddit has a block user button, and I gotta say it's pretty great.
posted by torokunai at 5:26 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

reddit has a block user button, and I gotta say it's pretty great.

It’s actually fairly crap. I started blocking every Nazi I came across and it took very little time to discover that they limit you too 1,000 blocks.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 5:29 PM on July 13 [26 favorites]

...as attempted assassination of ex-president
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

The AP did this?!?! WTH! j/k
posted by VTX at 5:29 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

I'm astounded there are people in this thread spinning conspiracy theories or wild speculation about this, especially when law enforcement and the Secret Service has confirmed this was an assassination attempt and Trump really was shot, and both the shooter and a bystander are dead. Biden has come out condemning it.

This was not a false flag, it was not staged, Trump was shot. Cmon guys.
posted by fortitude25 at 5:30 PM on July 13 [39 favorites]

Third comment on this thread is "Reichstag fire."

FWIW that was me. I didn’t mean to imply that Trump orchestrated or staged this, just that he and his movement will use it as a pretext to escalate their attacks on their perceived enemies.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 5:31 PM on July 13 [34 favorites]

Reviewing the rally footage, there are two men in dark clothes on the rooftop of the building just to the left of the grandstand. Are those secret service or are they camera operators?

Probably either secret service or another LE agency. Snipers at events are not uncommon, I have a view of them at my seat at the football stadium here. If someone tried to be a sniper to kill Trump, they were going to be located and shot immediately. The LE snipers are far less likely to miss a target.
posted by azpenguin at 5:32 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

escalate their attacks on their perceived enemies
who was the shooter what was his background?
posted by robbyrobs at 5:35 PM on July 13

Yay! The conversation has now moved away from whether Biden should drop out of the race!
posted by Melismata at 5:35 PM on July 13 [27 favorites]

So, Trump is a well known vain man. Do you think he'll show up in public while healing with:

A: His ear bandaged

B: Make up covering everything so it looks like nothing was damaged

C: With a parrot on his shoulder
posted by Art_Pot at 5:36 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

Well, I don't think it's going to matter what the background of the shooter is. The way the Trump campaign will spin it, the shooter is the third unknown child of Joe Biden. This is going to be a shitshow.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:36 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

Unless he is leading the most sophisticated political crime family the world has ever know.

Sleepy Evil Dopey Dark Brandon
posted by y2karl at 5:37 PM on July 13

You know, he'd be very safe from this sort of thing in prison...
posted by kickingtheground at 5:37 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

The mans got plot armour! The universe is conspiring to keep his campaign alive.

So, anyone seen Whoops Apocalypse? I don't think this was staged, but the end result's going to be the same.
posted by Comstar at 5:38 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

I started to reply to a comment that I see has been deleted, but maybe I'll say it anyway. America's appetite for violence--including political violence--is absolutely appalling, and the shooting will of course be used to score political points. But I don't think that appetite is endless. I do think people--a lot of people, maybe even enough people--get sick of the violence, of the rhetorical crescendo. Right before the shooting, Trump was making a point about the border, and everyone was clapping and cheering...but I have to believe that at some point people will get tired of that message of an endless ocean of murderous immigrants pouring over the border. Some people, yes, do and will take it as an article of faith, and it will become their unshakeable religion. And Trump will always have those people. But drama has a lifespan, and for all our worries of a fascist wave overtaking America, I still have faith--this is my religion--that people will get bored and look for something new to think about. The audience for that repetition will not grow ceaselessly. It will switch the channel. Trump thrives--and can only survive--on constant attention. If enough people get turned off by whatever happens to his rhetoric in the coming days, I think it will say something possibly positive about our national character.
posted by mittens at 5:38 PM on July 13 [21 favorites]

Oh there were people within moments saying the shooter was “a confirmed Antifa member.” Which is bullshit of course, no one knows anything yet, but these people do this every time something happens. Wait a couple of days, things will be clearer.
posted by azpenguin at 5:38 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Reading that glass from a shot prompter is what cut him.
posted by Sphinx at 5:39 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

I also have to say that Donald Trump is the luckiest motherfucker I have ever seen.
posted by bluesky43 at 8:14 PM on July 13

Seriously. At the expense everyone around him.
posted by UltraMorgnus at 5:41 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

i’m not astounded by the conspiracies given the russiagate nonsense and mueller worship of many on mefi in the past. liberal versions of qanon are rampant. the truth that the world is just a horrible mess of meaningless events is hard to stomach. one god damned thing after another, just apes fighting over resources. every day we take a step closer to calamity and today was one of those days we took a running leap
posted by dis_integration at 5:41 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

but I have to believe that at some point people will get tired of that message of an endless ocean of murderous immigrants pouring over the border.

Nope. you don't know the US.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:42 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

This closeup of his ear linked by doctornemo above is pretty clear and yet there is no sign of a bullet graze or piece missing from his ear. Can't say for sure but it seems equally possible it was caused by flying glass* shards or, even more likely, from being tackled to the ground and dogpiled by the SS.

*are teleprompters even made of glass, or some kind of plastic or smart screen?
posted by Rumple at 5:44 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

NYT: “Trump was just elected today, folks,” I heard a man shout. “He is a martyr.”
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:46 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

These are some of the dumbest comments I've ever seen on metafilter
posted by spork at 8:46 PM

People are scared. And rightfully so.
posted by UltraMorgnus at 5:48 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

Biden's remarks.
posted by doctornemo at 5:48 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

I just cannot get over him rising up above Secret Service protection for a brief photo op [...] Those are very strong people! Trained to let him do exactly Not This in This Exact Moment.

It's a small thing, but I feel like it might be worth correcting this misimpression for anyone reading along but not watching the footage themselves. The secret service lifts him into that position (presumably because the danger has passed) as he repeatedly asks them to let him get his shoes. He is not a super strongman who can overpower the professional strongpeople.
posted by nobody at 5:48 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

Well shit. I was not planning to leave the country this quickly. Goddammit, everything keeps getting worse faster than I ever expected.
posted by aramaic at 5:49 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

*are teleprompters even made of glass, or some kind of plastic or smart screen?

Rumple: I'd expect something like Gorilla Glass, just like most other big monitor-type devices.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:49 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

At this point I won't be surprised if tomorrow morning Jim Jordan and James Comer file articles of impeachment against Biden for the assassination attempt of Trump. And immediately after that Trump tweets his approval. And then Putin shits himself laughing. And then the Dems announce they are pausing all advertising until Halloween.
posted by pjsky at 5:49 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

Trump just put out a statement that it was indeed a bullet that hit his ear.

(Obligatory caveat about him being an unreliable narrator.)
posted by Jacqueline at 5:50 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

@epj, I’m sorry for what your ex witnessed. If he ends up needing it, I believe Pennsylvania’s victim’s compensation program will cover $1500 in counseling expenses for him as a direct witness. They’re a payor of last resort, so that means that it would refund any after-insurance out of pocket costs. Many people will not require counseling, but for those who do, the state will defray the cost of it.
posted by moosetracks at 5:50 PM on July 13 [22 favorites]

I'm not too sure about that. He's an old man too, and has spent his life sending other people to do his dirty work. He can barely keep it together when he hears people boo him. This is a whole different order of opposition.

No small odds that he shit his Depends up there on that stage and may not have the intestinal fortitude to keep going now that he realizes that he's a target, too.
posted by Sublimity at 5:50 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

I loathe Trump through and through, and came across this while meandering on Twitter. My second response, after shock, was I that I was glad he wasn't killed.
The first posts on Twitter I saw all claimed the Deep State was behind it; I can only imagine the raging shitshow going on right now on that app, and I am not looking.
I am Canadian, and I find the violence around American political discourse coming from parts of the the US right horrifying.
Jim Wright, the former military blogger, warned people to be careful of the extreme MAGA elements(he lives in MAGA Land) which, in light of so much of the discourse, feels spot on.

From North of 49 please take care and I wish you all well in dealing with what may come as a result of this.
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 5:51 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

source?
posted by bluesky43 at 5:51 PM on July 13

I came over here to get away from the despairing keens on Bluesky, y'all. I just don't buy that this puts him over the top. It's not like he tackled the shooter himself.
posted by emjaybee at 5:51 PM on July 13 [21 favorites]

I think it is important to emphasize that Trump has been going around the country filling his rallies with violent rhetoric and talk of a bloodbath if he isn’t elected. He is a convicted felon, known sexual predator, who has exhorted crowds violence resulting in the death of police officers and civilians. I don’t condone violence, I oppose it. Don’t let Trump off the hook for creating the moment we are in.
posted by interogative mood at 5:52 PM on July 13 [80 favorites]

I've never been shot, but I've been robbed at gunpoint, and I can tell you it takes a moment for your brain to kick in. Even my, at the time, late twenties brain.

So all you folks going "he didn't react like a coward would, this must be staged" please check yourselves. It's likely his significantly older and less functional brain was not processing the gunshots or necessarily even the pain in his ear.

People do not respond in a crisis in predictable ways. You can't use that as a bellwether. Please do better. This is a big enough shitshow without folks who should know better making it worse.
posted by Jilder at 5:52 PM on July 13 [57 favorites]

NYT:
In a post on his social media platform Truth Social, Donald Trump said he was “shot with a bullet that pierced the upper part of my right ear.”

Shane Goldmacher
July 13, 2024, 8:52 p.m. ET

Shane Goldmacher
Trump also offered condolences to the family of the person at the rally, who he says was killed, and another who was “badly injured.”
posted by bluesky43 at 5:52 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

coming from the side that claims to abhor that kind of thinking.

It's just wishful thinking, I believe. If you don't want Trump to be president then the best scenario is if it somehow comes out that he or other factions of the Republican party have staged this. Of course that's very unlikely, but I can see where the want to believe it comes from.
posted by axiom at 5:54 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

...now that he realizes that he's a target, too.

So we're going to get a popetrumpmobile then?
posted by porpoise at 5:55 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

It makes no sense for Trump to stage an incredibly risky (both politically and to his own personal safety) false flag attack. By all indicators he is on track to handily win the election.

Of course, this attack can absolutely bolster that already likely outcome by allowing Trump to play the martyr. One way to counter that would be to loudly note that Trump's own rhetoric, platform, and Supreme Court have undermined our democracy to the point that some folks are going to turn to violence. That would require the Dems to grow a spine though, so I look forward to bland condemnations of violence, zero recognition of Trump's role in fomenting said violence, and outrage at anyone who points out Trump's culpability.
posted by Panjandrum at 5:56 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

I want to know who the shooter was
His story as much as we can get that is truthful if thats possible anymore
posted by robbyrobs at 5:56 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Notes on Biden's press conference (video linked upthread):
-calls Trump "Donald"
-calls out political violence. "The idea of political violence... in America... is unheard of. It's not appropriate."
-urges us to speak against political violence. "Everybody must condemn it."

Reporter asks him if it was an assassination attempt. Biden demurs, saying he has an opinion, but wants more facts.
posted by doctornemo at 5:57 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

NYT:
In a statement, a spokesman for the Secret Service said that one spectator at the rally was killed and two were critically injured. The suspected gunman “fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside the rally venue,” the spokesman, Anthony Guglielmi, said.
posted by bluesky43 at 5:58 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

So, we're all just waiting to know who the gunman was now, right?
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 5:59 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

So we're going to get a popetrumpmobile then?

Mate, The Beast already makes the popemobile look like a bloody golf cart.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:59 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

So, we're all just waiting to know who the gunman was now, right?


Yup.

(And what media they consumed)
posted by mazola at 6:00 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

I don't think many people on this thread are actually endorsing conspiracy theories though? I mostly just see some people noting the different ways this is currently being spun and/or will be spun by different political factions.
posted by coffeecat at 6:01 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

agree.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:01 PM on July 13

(y'know who doesn't have skin in the game? TRUMP'S EAR)
posted by mittens at 6:01 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

> The idea of political violence... in America... is unheard of

an absurd claim especially for someone who came to maturity in the incredible violence of the 1960s
posted by dis_integration at 6:02 PM on July 13 [31 favorites]

>are actually endorsing conspiracy theories though?

one poster here was introducing them as fast he could type, or close
posted by torokunai at 6:02 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

According to reporting on NPR, the Secret Service surveys any event scene and knows any possible location for a shooting attempt. If the shooter was on a roof outside the event site, then this is a possible failure of the Secret Service.
posted by njohnson23 at 6:02 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Vice President Kamala Harris on Twitter:

I have been briefed on the shooting at former President Trump’s event in Pennsylvania.

Doug and I are relieved that he is not seriously injured. We are praying for him, his family, and all those who have been injured and impacted by this senseless shooting.

We are grateful to the United States Secret Service, first responders, and local authorities for their immediate action.

Violence such as this has no place in our nation. We must all condemn this abhorrent act and do our part to ensure that it does not lead to more violence.
posted by doctornemo at 6:04 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

(y'know who doesn't have skin in the game? TRUMP'S EAR)

Robert Jenkins, where are you now?
posted by doctornemo at 6:05 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

one poster here was introducing them as fast he could type, or close

If you're referring to the third poster, they've already clarified what they meant.

Edit to add: also one poster (whoever you mean) does not equate a bunch of people spreading conspiracy theories.
posted by coffeecat at 6:05 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

I mean, Trump literally has been involved in conspiracies before; one of them led to his being convicted of 34 felony charges. I know that you guys feel like the adults in the room by saying that a conspiracy is an outlandish idea, but conspiracies are kind of this guy's whole deal.

Obviously, we now know there was no conspiracy because a conspiracy on this level is impossible for Trump's people. We can safely move on from this idea, however entertaining.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:05 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

ok but hear me out: a time traveler
posted by changeling at 6:05 PM on July 13 [61 favorites]

As I see the contemporary left, it's got a lot of people who are okay with talking and fantasizing about political violence, but very few people who are okay with engaging in political violence, especially against people rather than property.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:06 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

There is now a Wikipedia page, "2024 shooting at a Donald Trump rally."
posted by doctornemo at 6:06 PM on July 13

NYT: In a statement, a spokesman for the Secret Service said that one spectator at the rally was killed and two were critically injured. The suspected gunman “fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside the rally venue,” the spokesman, Anthony Guglielmi, said.
posted by whir at 6:08 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Gosh I sure hope this thread turns into a heated debate about the true meanings of "left" and "liberal"
posted by mmoncur at 6:08 PM on July 13 [105 favorites]

> The idea of political violence... in America... is unheard of
an absurd claim especially for someone who came to maturity in the incredible violence of the 1960s

Isn't that the truth!! I couldn't believe Biden said that!! JFK, MLK, RFK, Malcolm X all assassinated. Reagan and Ford both survived attempted assassinations, and god knows how many other attempts there were against presidents that were never reported or disclosed! You can't tell me Bush and Obama weren't targeted multiple times. America is soaked in the blood of political violence.
posted by pjsky at 6:09 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

If the shooter was on a roof outside the event site, then this is a possible failure of the Secret Service.

If true, speaking of conspiracy, is only going to amp up Trump's whole "the Deep State is out to get me" rhetoric. Ugh.
posted by coffeecat at 6:10 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Gosh I sure hope this thread turns into a heated debate about the true meanings of "left" and "liberal"

MetaFilter:
posted by non canadian guy at 6:11 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

From CNN:

A shooter fired multiple shots from an “elevated position” outside of the Trump rally before United States Secret Service personnel “neutralized” the shooter, the law enforcement agency said.

“During Former President Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on the evening of July 13 at approximately 6:15 p.m., a suspected shooter fired multiple shots toward the stage from an elevated position outside of the rally venue,” the Secret Service statement said.

Secret Service personnel “neutralized the shooter, who is now deceased,” the statement continued.
posted by medusa at 6:13 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

This is pure speculation (though not nearly as toxic as all the conspiracy stuff), but looking at the map of the fairgrounds, and the reports that are being aired, I'd guess the shots were fired from the AGR International buildings north of the site, about 100-150m away. It's a very obvious location to shoot from, so I'm guessing the shooter was cleared to be there. It'd be interesting to look at the shot sounds: I still think the first was a bullet crack, then the rifle report maybe half a second later.
posted by netowl at 6:16 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Mod note: Folks -- this is a breaking news situation about a deeply unpopular-here person. The site turns 25 tomorrow. Help the site be the best it can be and please try to be constructive and helpful and realize you're speaking, in public, to a lot of other people. I've removed some stuff about reptilians and will refer you to this link and ask you to stop talking about it here. Thank you.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 6:16 PM on July 13 [123 favorites]

Former president Obama:

There is absolutely no place for political violence in our democracy. Although we don’t yet know exactly what happened, we should all be relieved that former President Trump wasn’t seriously hurt, and use this moment to recommit ourselves to civility and respect in our politics. Michelle and I are wishing him a quick recovery.
posted by doctornemo at 6:18 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

Transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg:

In this horrible moment, encouraged to hear President Trump’s team indicate that the former president is doing well.

An entire nation must speak with one voice today to completely and unequivocally reject all political violence.

posted by doctornemo at 6:18 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

Former United States Representative and attempted assassination victim Gabby Giffords:

Political violence is terrifying. I know.

I’m holding former President Trump, and all those affected by today’s indefensible act of violence in my heart. Political violence is un-American and is never acceptable—never.
posted by doctornemo at 6:20 PM on July 13 [29 favorites]

I don't actually think it's good media literacy to assume in the midst of breaking news that things being reported are exactly as they seem and that dubiousness is a "conspiracy theory." I'm not saying anyone is correct or incorrect (I haven't actually been following this story very closely), I just think it's false to equate being trusting with being responsible, in the first minutes of an emerging story.
posted by dusty potato at 6:22 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

I'd guess the shots were fired from the AGR International buildings north of the site, about 100-150m away.

I can't link directly to the image, but the NYT has a map up that does show a dot on the Southernmost of those three white-roofed buildings with the note "Location of suspected gunman's body."
posted by whir at 6:24 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Just a quick reminder that getting punched contributed to the ending of Richard Spencer’s influence, contrary to fears many folks expressed in the immediate aftermath of that incident. It’s too soon to know how this wil impact Trump’s campaign. And probably there is time for the Lincoln Project and others to spin it as him showing weakness.
posted by eviemath at 6:24 PM on July 13 [21 favorites]

Denouncing political violence is correct and I'm glad Democrats are doing it loud and clear.

Counterexample and blast from the past: Trump mocks Pelosi family as he rallies conservative support in California

“We’ll stand up to crazy Nancy Pelosi, who ruined San Francisco — how’s her husband doing, anybody know?” Trump said to a raucous crowd of California Republicans at a state party convention. “And she’s against building a wall at our border, even though she has a wall around her house — which obviously didn’t do a very good job.”

Via @heidilifeldman [Mastodon]
posted by mazola at 6:26 PM on July 13 [51 favorites]

Yes, liberal/left/etc Twitter is sharing clips of Trump mocking Pelosi's husband.
posted by doctornemo at 6:27 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Trump is a sociopath, and nothing that happened today will change that.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:28 PM on July 13 [36 favorites]

Pretty sure I’m skipping work Monday. The poor “wounded” righties will be unsufferable.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:28 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Just a quick reminder that getting punched contributed to the ending of Richard Spencer’s influence, contrary to fears many folks expressed in the immediate aftermath of that incident.

Getting sucker-punched and not punching back makes you look weak. Surviving an assassination attempt does the opposite, merited or no.
posted by tzikeh at 6:28 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

There is time for the Lincoln Project and others to spin it as him showing weakness.

Ye gods. Can we get to any kind of substance here? Politics is power and sometimes brutal, but if it’s … this I just want nothing to do with it.
posted by argybarg at 6:28 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Counterexample and blast from the past:

Exactly - a good antidote or at least moderating salve to despair is to work on getting the message out loud and clear to Trump supporters about how the fact that this happened indicates weakness in him, the same way he has implied for people who he opposes.
posted by eviemath at 6:28 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Mark Russell: "Political violence always benefits authoritarians because liberals will always condemn it and authoritarians, regardless of whether they are perpetrators or victims, will always use it to claim more power."
posted by mittens at 6:28 PM on July 13 [75 favorites]

I haven't actually been following this story very closely

I support this position. When the facts emerge, then it will be worth examination. Right now, it's just speculation and noise.
posted by SPrintF at 6:29 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

there is time for the Lincoln Project and others to spin it as him showing weakness

I mean, OK, but do we want to be allied with people who piss on our leg and tell us it's raining?
posted by whir at 6:29 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

tzikeh: "...."

I mean, I know what's been reported and have a good sense of what people are saying about it, but I haven't dug into the back-and-forth of the minutiae of every angle of the story. Sorry I guess?
posted by dusty potato at 6:29 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

An entire nation must speak with one voice today to completely and unequivocally reject all political violence.

This is how to respond. It is both the right thing to say, and it implicitly condemns Trump & co's own record of whipping up such violence.

As to how this will effect the election result, I have no idea. Could go either way, or make no difference. Only time will tell.

Only thing I am sure of is that nobody else knows either.
posted by Pouteria at 6:30 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

Let's see what the Lincoln Project actually says, rather than condemning them in advance.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:32 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

I mean, OK, but do we want to be allied with people who piss on our leg and tell us it's raining?

For the record I literally do not care who else is on the not-Trump side. I will take all of them. I have no purity test about this, all are welcome. We can deal with the next problem when it inevitably comes.
posted by phunniemee at 6:32 PM on July 13 [45 favorites]

Mark Russell: "Political violence always benefits authoritarians…

Presumably not the piano-playing one.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:34 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

but do we want to be allied with people who piss on our leg and tell us it's raining?

Understanding that the situation is up in the air and multiple outcomes are still possible isn’t allying with anything?

(Personally my impression is that the Lincoln Project is largely ineffective and misses the point of what is actually bad about Trump. But I’m also not their target audience, I guess. I merely used them as an example of a group where them immediately going on the attack against Trump for this incident was believable.)
posted by eviemath at 6:34 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

I would like to request that if anyone has any criticisms of a couple of specific users' behavior in this specific thread, they refer to it as such instead of painting with a wide brush as "leftist." It's only been a few hours, no one knows what's going on, and this is a fast-moving thread. If your immediate impulse is to attack "the left" either in general or on this website, please keep it in check.
posted by Glegrinof the Pig-Man at 6:37 PM on July 13 [30 favorites]

I gotta say: I would have much preferred a Dead Zone / Greg Stillson / baby shield scenario.
posted by PaulVario at 6:37 PM on July 13 [20 favorites]

Shouldn't the "good guy" Secret Service snipers have shot and killed the "bad guy" shooter before he was able to shoot? This seems like a major security failure.
posted by kirkaracha at 6:37 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

No shade to the Lincoln Project (who, obviously, have not said anything yet AFAIK). What I meant was that I doubt anyone on the anti-Trump side seriously, sincerely believes that being shot at is a sign of weakness, and if we're trying to convince people to join us, approaching them with sincerity and seriousness seems like a decent play.
posted by whir at 6:38 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

So, Milwaukee is fucked next week. We were already terrified about the RNC and the 4,500 extra cops they’re bringing in plus the license to carry guns in the protest areas (while keeping guns and protestors out of the actual convention). The neighborhood where they’re hosting a bunch of their rave after parties (every night until 2am!) is very progressive but everyone has packed up their pride flags and Biden signs because they’re legitimately scared for their physical wellbeing. The Republicans have their own private security that have been going around telling them to STAY IN THEIR HOUSES.

I no longer regret the fact that I used the remainder of my pitiful amount of PTO to barricade myself in my home for the entire RNC because my company refused to let me work from home. Many of my coworkers don’t have the privilege. Fuck.
posted by brook horse at 6:38 PM on July 13 [81 favorites]

I think most folks here recognize that those advocating for more violence in our politics in the United States are not leftists, not matter what they call themselves. I hope the mods will take steps to reign in this kind of toxic rhetoric.

Richard Spencer getting punched actually boosted him. Check the timeline. He got punched at the Trump inauguration. Then he became an even bigger alt-right figure. What did him in was his own violence in Charlottesville at the Unite the Right rally that he helped organize, followed by lawsuits and then infighting in the alt-right movement.
posted by interogative mood at 6:39 PM on July 13 [20 favorites]

The Lincoln Project: "Political violence has no place in American life."
posted by mittens at 6:39 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

Has everyone gone mad?

See also Rumor, Fear and the Madness of Crowds
posted by y2karl at 6:39 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

In the video on NYT, when the Secret Service people start hauling Trump offstage, in the audio one can hear him say, "Wait, wait, wait, wait!" When they pause, that is when he pumps his fist to the audience. He recognized the usefulness of the moment. I worry that bit of footage will haunt the future for a long time.
posted by Hot Pastrami! at 6:42 PM on July 13 [28 favorites]

Be aware that one goddamned thing leads to another.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:43 PM on July 13 [20 favorites]

Just remember! It's never the time to talk about gun violence before, during, or after an incident of gun violence! Only thoughts and prayers and more guns. Not completely clear on the ethics of wearing gun pins though. I think it's still appropriate, even though it wasn't children shot this time?


I wish them less physical harm than they wish me.
posted by Jacen at 6:45 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

In the video on NYT, when the Secret Service people start hauling Trump offstage, in the audio one can hear him say, "Wait, wait, wait, wait!"

Does anyone have a way to download that video for posterity? The chances of it being pulled from the NYT are non-zero.
posted by tzikeh at 6:46 PM on July 13

When seeing that image of bloody-eared Trump raising his fist to the American flag backdrop, many of us certainly came to a conspiracy theory about this. Perfect martyr narrative! Probably not the case, we'll see, but, if so, DJT was not in on it: that plea to get his shoes...!?!...
posted by kozad at 6:46 PM on July 13

Here's a link to the NYT reporting with the video.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:50 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

I keep thinking about this

Joe Biden sent the orders. https://t.co/pOc0XLxCwg
— Mike Collins (@MikeCollinsGA) July 13, 2024

Pretty sure the tweet has been deleted now. But I want to scream at that f*cktwat that IF BIDEN SENT THE ORDERS tough titties. Biden's the President and the Supreme Court just said presidents have absolute immunity for core constitutional powers and Biden took an oath to protect and defend the constitution -- to which Trump is a a clear and present danger. Now I don't condone assassination or political violence, but thanks to the GOP and their billionaire funders who bought the Supreme Court, you could now argue Biden could not be prosecuted if he had actually ordered Trump's assassination. And that is just completely insane.
posted by pjsky at 6:53 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

yeah yeah yeah

Shouldn't the "good guy" Secret Service snipers have shot and killed the "bad guy" shooter before he was able to shoot? This seems like a major security failure.
I doubt it if I'm guessing the chronology right that I've written down, the shooter was dead within 5 seconds. there are no details on how the shooter achieved a position to shoot, the fact that whoever missed and shot so early in the rally is suggestive.

does anybody have a detailed map of the area it's been so many comments on I can't even go back and highlight the person who initially posted the Google map which is quite accurate cuz I found the water tower and I was wrong I heard wrong and that's the problem with relaying information so supposedly the secret service put a team in the water tower and if we're going by the AGI building that's just a I guess what 150 yards.

one thing that stands out that makes this whole thing surreal.was when he said can get his shoes
posted by clavdivs at 6:54 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

>So, Milwaukee is fucked next week

Starts tonight, actually. They're shutting down the main onramp to the interstate for a huge event on the lakefront, and there are helicopters flying over my neighborhood constantly since a few days ago.
posted by dis_integration at 6:55 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

“Trump Appears Shot ,” Rebecca Schoenkopf, The Wonkette, 13 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 6:57 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Clavdivs, it's here.
posted by GeckoDundee at 6:58 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

Starts tonight, actually.

Christ. Hope you stay safe.
posted by brook horse at 6:59 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

I remember W having an impressively cool reaction to having shoes thrown at him — manly, even — and he was still a nimrod. I also remember Trump not only bungled a pandemic but got the disease himself, and it’s all but impossible to say if it had any political effect at all. I don’t understand causality in politics except that inflation, being a charismatic and painful form of a bad economy, is really, really unpopular. The rest is a complete enigma, to me at least.
posted by argybarg at 7:01 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

You know, on reflection, if I were a synchronicity guy, I would say this explains why my Spotify has been randomly selecting "Stuck in the Middle with You" all week.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:04 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Starts tonight, actually.

The RNC officially starts on Monday, but the secure area has been semi-set up for about a week, and some of the prep has been happening in some form or another in Milwaukee for the last 6 months or more. Just tonight after the news they closed it down quite a bit more, which seems to be a day earlier than they had planned to do so, though they hadn't set up mags to screen entry into the general area as of about 8pm when I left the plaza in front of the arena. I was inside the actual arena the last couple of days setting up my cameras, but nothing is actually happening for the actual convention besides prep/rehearsals/venue setup/etc. until Monday afternoon/evening.
posted by msbrauer at 7:05 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

Wiki roundup:
2024 shooting at a Donald Trump rally (editors are arguing over the title)
Security incidents involving Donald Trump
List of United States presidential assassination attempts and plots
posted by swift at 7:06 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

> Does anyone have a way to download that video for posterity?

Direct link to mp4, just load it up in a browser and go to File > Save Page As (or equivalent). It should be about 34MB. Yes I am a badass hacker.
posted by Hot Pastrami! at 7:06 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

one thing that stands out that makes this whole thing surreal.was when he said can get his shoes

Literally arguing with the Secret Service agents trying to save his life because he's two inches shorter without his lifts (which is why his shoes ell off his feet when he fell down).

there are no details on how the shooter achieved a position to shoot

This BBC interview with a possible eyewitness (who seems very credible to me) is well worth watching. He and some friends were having a party then when Trump began speaking they walked over to a nearby fence to listen. They could not see, but they could see a person climbing on a nearby roof with a rifle, and tried repeatedly to get the attention of police/the Secret Service. For whatever reason the police were unresponsive? Part 2 of the interview.
posted by oneirodynia at 7:08 PM on July 13 [23 favorites]

I had a good talk with my therapist this week that relates, perhaps, to our conversation here.

My partner will often go into panic mode because they're running late, which inevitably leads them to run even more late. For years, I've responded by getting sucked into that panic too, which just compounds the problem.

I'm trying to practice (and I don't think this is the phrase my therapist used) emotional detachment when they're panicking both for my own well-being and because I'm more useful in the situation if I can remain focused. I've been applying this to other facets of my life too, and though I'm not very good at it, but it's helping.

The media really really really wants your constant clicks right now, so they really want you to be freaking out so you're emotionally invested in clicking on the next piece of breaking "news." You will be doing yourself and your community a huge service if you can encourage yourself to think "the media's panic is not my panic" and stay focused on waiting for more information to come out.

Amplifying rumors and fears and speculation right now drives up the panic, which only benefits people who survive on clicks. Take a deep breath. Touch grass. Pet your furbabies. Post your responses to this tomorrow when you're calm and when there's more info.

Losing part of his ear has not turned him into some kind of sympathetic political van Gogh.
posted by Joey Michaels at 7:09 PM on July 13 [92 favorites]

They could not see, but they could see a person climbing on a nearby roof with a rifle, and tried repeatedly to get the attention of police/the Secret Service. For whatever reason the police were unresponsive?

After January 6 the idea that the Secret Service might not try too hard to prevent an assassination was no longer unthinkable to me. I just assumed it'd be the other president.
posted by kirkaracha at 7:10 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Kirkaracha, he did try to give several secret service members covid by giving them into a car with him so they could drive him around.
posted by thebotanyofsouls at 7:13 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

You know, on reflection, if I were a synchronicity guy, I would say this explains why my Spotify

surely if you were a synchronicity guy you'd be listening to The Police
posted by phunniemee at 7:13 PM on July 13 [31 favorites]

Oh there were people within moments saying the shooter was “a confirmed Antifa member.” Which is bullshit of course

To be fair, he did try to kill a fascist.

While we wait for the dust to settle, I'm going to hope it turns out to be someone who's life was ruined when Trump stiffed them on his bill.
posted by VTX at 7:13 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Mark Russell: "Political violence always benefits authoritarians…

Presumably not the piano-playing one.

The deficit rag, oh yeah, the deficit rag
Those budget gaps can be a twelve-digit drag
I’m tellin’ ya, that’s the deficit
They really made a mess of it
That’s the deficit raaaaaag, thank you!
posted by non canadian guy at 7:14 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

The Beast already makes the popemobile look like a bloody golf cart.

No no, I was thinking a gilded golf cart with active armour sides and balistic glass on top. Just like the little popemobile which is about the seeing of the person riding it much more than the mere conveyance of said person.
posted by porpoise at 7:15 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

The trending topics on my Twitter page right now are, top to bottom: Canada v. Uruguay, Civil War, Trump, Ketchup, Jodie Foster.
posted by orange swan at 7:15 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

I mean, OK, but do we want to be allied with people who piss on our leg and tell us it's raining?

In the moment of a literal existential crisis, yes, you ally with anyone you can, even if they will later be a threat themselves. You put aside your shit until the current business is done. Otherwise you end up with a fascist dictatorship despite there being more who don't want it than do.

A famous example of what happens when you do this is the defeat of Germany in World War II. A famous example of what happens when you don't is the Spanish Civil War where the liberals argued with the leftists and the leftists argued amongst themselves about which was the one true and correct form of Marxism and ultimately lost because they were too busy worrying about who would be in charge after they put down Franco. Instead, Franco won and purged all of them.
posted by wierdo at 7:16 PM on July 13 [41 favorites]

He has no moral claim to be covered by a social contract that he himself has repeatedly violated.

Sorry, can we try to avoid thinly veiled tu quoque justifications for political violence?
posted by whir at 7:18 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

"I also have to say that Donald Trump is the luckiest motherfucker I have ever seen."

Umm, let me tell you about a man with a toothbrush mustache and his, uh... brushes (no pun intended) with this sort of thing.
posted by symbioid at 7:18 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

those advocating for more violence in our politics in the United States are not leftists, not matter what they call themselves

If the shooter is genuinely leftist, as is the most likely case, we may get to experience the twisted horror of a Biden crackdown on "Antifa".
posted by CynicalKnight at 7:18 PM on July 13

I have a small bet with myself that the shooter will be to the right of Trump politically.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 7:24 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

Direct link to mp4

Well that's a thing. Guy gets shot, then escorted off as the crowd chants USA, USA, USA, USA, USA.

I'd like to suggest a minute's silence for the family of the dead bystander.
posted by flabdablet at 7:26 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

If the shooter is genuinely leftist, as is the most likely case

DUDE, we literally do not know that. It could be anyone at this point.
posted by coffeecat at 7:26 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

"In the moment of a literal existential crisis, yes, you ally with anyone you can, even if they will later be a threat themselves."

My husband and I were both Libertarian Party activists for 20+ years and even we have put our differences with the Democrats aside. Let's deal with the existential threat from rising fascism first, and bicker about tax policy later.

Anyone whose own ideology is closer to mainstream Democrats than hardcore libertarians has zero fucking excuse. If we can hold our nose and vote blue, so can you.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:27 PM on July 13 [46 favorites]

A patriot stepped up where the justice system failed.

This is wrong. Someone who attempts murder as a political act is trying to enact a system that is so far from just. It's just vigilantism.
posted by mittens at 7:29 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Yes I am a badass hacker

Pfft. A real badass hacker would have told us to right-click the link and choose Save Link As.
posted by flabdablet at 7:29 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

I'm kinda expecting a pogrom. Been a long time since Tulsa.

For the love of fuck can we NOT do this?

A patriot stepped up where the justice system failed.

OR this?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:30 PM on July 13 [42 favorites]

We have no idea why this person did it. Their motives may not make sense at all.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:30 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

We have no idea why this person did it. Their motives may not make sense at all.

Viral marketing for Despicable Me 4, you heard it here first, folks.
posted by phunniemee at 7:33 PM on July 13 [22 favorites]

What I wouldn’t give to be living in precedented times.
posted by edithkeeler at 7:34 PM on July 13 [63 favorites]

IDK my money is on "batshit person who makes very little sense politically" and has confusing psycho views like "Bill Gates illuminati are putting nanotech tracking particles into the Trump Warp Speed vaccine" or something
posted by windbox at 7:34 PM on July 13 [31 favorites]

I think when you put yourself outside the reach of the justice system, by your own actions and by the actions of your toadies and allies, you should maybe not be surprised when people seek to rectify the situation outside the justice system. But I also think that this is probably an inappropriate topic for right here and right now. We'll find out what the motives were soon enough, and until then it's probably better for the fragile state of our democracy that this attempt failed, whatever the motivation.
posted by Two unicycles and some duct tape at 7:36 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Canadian Facebook doesn't allow news links, so I can only imagine what the discussion on American Facebook must look like right now.
posted by clawsoon at 7:39 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Cheering attempted murder is absolutely vile, and has no place here or anywhere.
posted by multics at 7:40 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Popehat (@kenwhite.bsky.social‬)

Just a reminder: it’s good to oppose assassinations. But you are under absolutely no obligation to treat Trumpists and Trump-apologists as people who are honest, or acting in good faith, when they purport to condemn political violence or violent rhetoric. They’re not sincere.

Dr. Catherine Kehl ‪(@tylik.bsky.social‬)

When I condemn political violence I am also condemning a Trump candidacy.

posted by tonycpsu at 7:40 PM on July 13 [66 favorites]

batshit person who makes very little sense politically

there is an odd parallel from 111 years ago.
posted by clavdivs at 7:40 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

My Facebook is mostly ads, but American Twitter is pretty wild.
posted by coffeecat at 7:40 PM on July 13

Why is 'the shooter most likely leftist' CynicalKnight when America has enough unhinged people that there are dozens of daily shootings (so many that mass shooting has a numerical definition).

More filter, less meta (and less kneejerk bias and othering).
posted by unearthed at 7:41 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

> Pfft. A real badass hacker would have told us to right-click the link and choose Save Link As.

I'm not particularly right-leaning but you do you
posted by Hot Pastrami! at 7:43 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Cheering attempted murder is absolutely vile, and has no place here or anywhere.

Ok, but are we allowed to be aware and acknowledge that what Trump experienced today doesn't come close to 1% of the trauma and violence he's inflicted on countless people, both within and outside of the US? I don't like this because I fear for the violence it will spawn, but I also totally don't care about Trump's well-being here and I'm not going to send him thoughts and prayers.
posted by coffeecat at 7:44 PM on July 13 [32 favorites]

Trump is a clear and present danger.
posted by Miko at 7:51 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

I’m glad Biden is president at this juncture and not TFG. He might be diminished, but he’s sane.
posted by mazola at 7:51 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

Trump just moves his mouth and fingers.
posted by torokunai at 7:52 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

I'd like to offer both (a) a gentle reminder that outlandish wild-ass conspiracist nonsense remarks motivated by absurdist gallows humour do not amount to statements of actual belief in any such nonsense and (b) a well deserved golf clap to fellow mefites foolhardy enough to have immortalized their own such remarks upthread. I genuinely appreciate your work and am comforted to learn that I'm not the only one afflicted by a sense of humour that leans that way.

My own wild-ass conspiracist nonsense jokes I'm keeping mostly to myself; bad enough that my family has to put up with them.

I don't like this because I fear for the violence it will spawn, but I also totally don't care about Trump's well-being here and I'm not going to send him thoughts and prayers.

Seconded. In any case I have none left over, having just sent them all to the dead bystander's family.
posted by flabdablet at 7:52 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

A patriot stepped up where the justice system failed. Not an ideal solution, but if your system has already failed, then assassinating a known traitor is better than allowing them to take power again.

...so are we advocating for political murder, then?
posted by doctornemo at 7:55 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

I just have to lol at the Giffords quote from up thread that political violence is un-American.

Political violence created this country.
Political violence built this country.
Political violence nearly tore this country apart.
Political violence ruled the South for a century.
Political violence has been one of this country’s chief exports for two centuries.

This is a deeply unserious country.
posted by rhymedirective at 7:55 PM on July 13 [59 favorites]

are we allowed to be aware and acknowledge that what Trump experienced today doesn't come close to 1% of the trauma and violence he's inflicted on countless people, both within and outside of the US?

Hasn't MetaFilter been doing this regularly and extensively since 2016?
posted by doctornemo at 7:56 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

They are going to find the shooters social media and it's going to be posts like:

"all the politicians are in the pokcet of big money at the end of the day....all about $$$$ trump biden doesnt matter they take $$$ from anyone...dont believe the lies. who put out the vaccine?? Trump and $Big Pharma$$$...who pushed it?? biden fauci and u guessed it also big $$Pharma$$4...either way corporations win, we stay slaves......open your eyes...stay woke yall"

Fox News: "LEFTIST SHOOTER POSTED ABOUT BEING 'WOKE'; OTHER TOPICS"
posted by windbox at 7:56 PM on July 13 [12 favorites]

Political violence has been one of this country’s chief exports for two centuries

And very lucrative it has been and remains. Making killings makes a killing.
posted by flabdablet at 7:58 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

It’s been kind of tough to shut things off today with all this going on. I’d love to go touch grass, but the nearest touchable grass is over a mile away and it’s been 109 today. Basically we’re stuck inside with not much at all to do because it’s too damn hot. So I end up looking around online and it’s unavoidable. Then the texts from friends about the news. I need a good indoor hobby, I swear. I need to start planning that road trip to cooler climes next month. I hate summer.
posted by azpenguin at 7:58 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Hasn't MetaFilter been doing this regularly and extensively since 2016?

Apparently not without having to put up with a lot of concern trolling.
posted by coffeecat at 7:59 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Trump violated the social contract against advocating violence for political change when he incited a violent coup attempt. Plus all the other things he's said to incite violence over the years.
posted by Jacqueline

And failed to condemn when it is his fellow travellers saying or doing it.
posted by Pouteria at 8:00 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

Why is 'the shooter most likely leftist'

True, they could be unhinged as you suggest, or a Never Trump conservative, but I think that's likely a smaller circle on that dark venn diagram. Nonetheless, my speculation is premature. This is a terrible turn of events no matter who is responsible.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:01 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

What's weird is I did take a break and go over to the bar where my partner is working tonight, and while I can't claim to have heard every conversation going on, it seemed like....nobody was talking about it? Which seems kinda wild since this was a mostly under 40 crowd, so presumably the most high-profile assassination attempt in their lifetime.
posted by coffeecat at 8:01 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

the nearest touchable grass is over a mile away and it’s been 109 today ... I need a good indoor hobby, I swear

Now that LED lighting is a thing, growing your own grass indoors has never been cheaper. Or cooler, for that matter.

Logging off to go and prune mine.
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

I want to hear what Hinckley thinks.

First person to get him to come on their show as a guest "expert" commentator will be the funniest motherfucker alive.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:03 PM on July 13 [20 favorites]

This could be a teachable moment for TFG but I fear he’ll learn all the wrong lessons from it. </understatement>
posted by mazola at 8:03 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Can we talk for a moment about the other life lost? I assume it was someone behind Trump at the rally who was hit, but that doesn't make any sense in the video. In the video you don't see anyone behind him react like they were hit. You don't see the people behind him react like they are aiding someone who has been hit. When the secret service gets trump up and he's all good and he does his "Wait wait wait wait" thing, nobody back there is screaming for first aid or paramedics or help, which you'd think they would be if someone had been hit. So who is the other death? Did someone have a heart attack? Heat stroke combined with stress? Did the secret service miss and also shoot someone else? Did the body slide down the roof onto someone (from the BBC interview, I assume not because that guy definitely would have mentioned it)?

.

For the other dead person.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 8:05 PM on July 13 [32 favorites]

I just have to lol at the Giffords quote from up thread that political violence is un-American.

It is extremely common to say something is "un-American" as a description of what you think the country should be aspiring to avoid, not a description of what it has historically been.

It's weird--or at least it very poor taste--to laugh at someone who has personally experienced very bad political violence saying "hey, I condemn political violence as un-American."
posted by moosetracks at 8:05 PM on July 13 [32 favorites]

Apparently not without having to put up with a lot of concern trolling.

So awfully sorry to test your patience with my disdain for bloodshed. Don't know how you manage to keep up your sunny disposition.
posted by multics at 8:07 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

> It could be anyone at this point.

> We have no idea why this person did it.

just a few recent examples...
-Assassination of Shinzo Abe
-Attempted assassination of Robert Fico
-Jair Bolsonaro 2018 presidential campaign: Stabbing attack during campaign
posted by kliuless at 8:08 PM on July 13 [9 favorites]

I can't claim to have heard every conversation going on, it seemed like....nobody was talking about it?

The texts I've exchanged since the event have been:
- update from my brother on his birthday activities today
- a picture of a cat sitting in a chair
- fangirling about Jordan Chiles
- planning for the nail polish con me and a friend are attending tomorrow

Since I don't care even remotely about Trump's well being it just doesn't rank as something I want to spend my social capital on. Plenty to read here if I want it.
posted by phunniemee at 8:08 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

In the US, political violence must always be used by the powerful against the powerless. To have it flow the other way is unAmerican.
posted by rikschell at 8:09 PM on July 13 [36 favorites]

What's weird is I did take a break and go over to the bar where my partner is working tonight, and while I can't claim to have heard every conversation going on, it seemed like....nobody was talking about it?

i just got back from my local, i'm in the reddest of red states. two guys briefly were talking about it, one had no idea that anything had happened. the conversation quickly moved on

the crowd was 30-40s mostly. i was the oldest person there. no idea what to make of it
posted by lescour at 8:14 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

In the video you don't see anyone behind him react like they were hit.

I imagine the other person was likely hit by secret service fire from inside the event (obviously, that's pure speculation). This map shows kind of a bird's-eye view of the scene, and the location of "wounded rally attendee" is between the stage and the roof, but seated on bleachers. (There's no indication on the map where the rally-goer who was killed was sitting, nor the other of the two people who were reportedly wounded).
posted by whir at 8:15 PM on July 13

I think it important to contrast how Republicans responded to the attack on Paul Pelosi vs how democrats responded to the attack on Trump. No Democrats are spreading rumors that this was Trump’s gay lover/ rent boy seeking revenge, We should also highlight how Republicans are celebrating this as a political win for them.
posted by interogative mood at 8:15 PM on July 13 [34 favorites]

"I assume it was someone behind Trump at the rally who was hit, but that doesn't make any sense in the video. In the video you don't see anyone behind him react like they were hit. You don't see the people behind him react like they are aiding someone who has been hit."

I saw a map of the scene on Facebook, and from the perspective of the video we saw that was centered on Trump, the shooter was off to the left.

So "behind him" in the context of the shooting angle would have been off camera to the right.

Meanwhile, many people at the rally were likely taking their own videos and pictures in addition to the official media coverage. I expect that most of those will come out over the next week or so and will show a variety of angles on Trump and the crowd.

This could be the most well-documented assassination attempt in history and thus I expect if we wait a bit we'll get answers for everything that seems a bit odd.
posted by Jacqueline at 8:16 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

So awfully sorry to test your patience with my disdain for bloodshed. Don't know how you manage to keep up your sunny disposition.

Dark humor and yoga, mostly :) (And to be clear, I'm a pacifist and do not like what happened today - but I'm not sure it's fair to expect everyone's views to be perfectly sanitized and proper right now - people on this thread seem alright, is all I'm saying)
posted by coffeecat at 8:17 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

It is extremely common to say something is "un-American" as a description of what you think the country should be aspiring to avoid, not a description of what it has historically been.

It's weird--or at least it very poor taste--to laugh at someone who has personally experienced very bad political violence saying "hey, I condemn political violence as un-American."

God save us from aspiration.
posted by rhymedirective at 8:19 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

This article on ABC news is an example of the reporting we need the media to do in the wake of this. From the article: a nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 54 criminal cases where Trump was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault.
posted by interogative mood at 8:20 PM on July 13 [61 favorites]

I think there is no honest assessment that doesn't recognize moral complexity here. Falling back on simple rubrics and hard lines about "attempted murder" is just as likely to allow, defend, or produce atrocity as is its opposite, in these times and with the forces aligned as they are.
posted by Miko at 8:22 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

i just got back from my local, i'm in the reddest of red states. two guys briefly were talking about it, one had no idea that anything had happened. the conversation quickly moved on

Trump is such a chaos vortex that this shooting feels like an unsurprising surprise. It's like a TV show that has too many twists - eventually you're, like, of course there was another shocking twist, what else is on?
posted by clawsoon at 8:23 PM on July 13 [23 favorites]

God save us from aspiration. I’d settle for honesty.

God save us from thinking that an honest understanding of history precludes us from aspiring to something better.

It's rare to see someone make a "those who understand history are doomed to repeat it" argument.
posted by moosetracks at 8:23 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

It's rare to see someone make a "those who understand history are doomed to repeat it" argument.

Those who understand history are doomed to watch others repeat it.
posted by clawsoon at 8:25 PM on July 13 [36 favorites]

Those who understand history are doomed to watch others repeat it.

... well, fuck.
posted by tzikeh at 8:26 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Also so far I've seen a Georgia Congressman, V. D. Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, all put the blame either on Biden, different members of Congress, or "the Deep State." We are all witnessing violence being encouraged in the US at a scale I don't think I've ever come close to seeing. I shudder to think what's coming.
posted by coffeecat at 8:27 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

I think there is no honest assessment that doesn't recognize moral complexity here. Falling back on simple rubrics and hard lines about "attempted murder" is just as likely to allow, defend, or produce atrocity as is its opposite, in these times and with the forces aligned as they are.

I guess that's where we disagree; I think that one side abhors violence even against those who advocate — indeed, revel in — it is critical to the existence of a moral distinction between those two sides. It's precisely why there's a moral continuum in the first place.
posted by multics at 8:29 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Those who understand history are doomed to watch others repeat it.

Cynicism is a wonderful luxury belief.
posted by moosetracks at 8:31 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

We're not talking about it at this point (intermission), but when I got to the theater, someone said, "This is one of the signs of the Antichrist."
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:33 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Jeffries sending his thoughts and prayers to Trump was a good touch.
posted by skyscraper at 8:33 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

One can abhor violence for its broader affects, but not mourn for the occasional well-deserving individual target.
posted by coffeecat at 8:33 PM on July 13 [10 favorites]

this was Trump’s gay lover/ rent boy seeking revenge

While we wait for the truth to emerge, this will be my placeholder
posted by AdamCSnider at 8:34 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Pres. Biden spoke briefly, was quite coherent, and is taking all the right steps, because he's not a monster.

Social media is 99% hot takes, a generous estimate. Mainstream media is 60% hot takes, another generous estimate.

According to WaPo, Newt Gingrich blames Biden, says ‘there will be fewer “never-Trumpers” tomorrow morning’. This makes me long for religion, as Newt should burn in hell.
posted by theora55 at 8:36 PM on July 13 [24 favorites]

This attempt fails the narrative of the deep state, much like Biden's cognitive decline. The paranoid conspiracy mindset is a grandiose scheme beyond the imagination of anyone rational and is based on a cosmic theory of evil that doesn't miss. Prediction: Trump will attempt to explain that a little voice told him to turn his head.
posted by Brian B. at 8:40 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Yikes, according to Mehdi Hasan (well-respected journalist): "Someone just said on CNN that "both sides" need to tone down the rhetoric."
posted by coffeecat at 8:41 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Hasn't MetaFilter been doing this regularly and extensively since 2016?

Yes, and I am exhausted.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:41 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Dark humor and yoga, mostly :)

Me too! Except Jim Beam instead of yoga.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:45 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

I had genuinely forgotten that Newt Gingrich was still alive.

If you're freaking out, I recommend thinking of one thing that you can do to make the world better and then doing it. If you like electoral politics, find a competitive race near you and see if there's a place on the website to donate or volunteer. If you don't like electoral politics, see if you can help out the local mutual aid group or abortion fund. Check in on your friends who are more vulnerable than you are. I believe that we are facing an existential threat, and I believe that we can defeat it. And we don't do that by panicking or sniping at each other. We do that by being honest about the threat and then each doing our own little bit to prevent it from coming to pass.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 8:47 PM on July 13 [36 favorites]

Yikes, according to Mehdi Hasan (well-respected journalist): "Someone just said on CNN that "both sides" need to tone down the rhetoric."

Conservative Heritage leader: 'Second American Revolution' will be bloodless 'if the left allows it to be'

Palin Aide: Crosshairs On Target List Not Actually Gun Sights:

An aide to Sarah Palin claims the crosshairs depicted in her now-infamous target list of Democrats were not actually gun-sights, and that it’s “obscene” and “appalling” to blame Palin for the shooting.

“We never ever, ever intended it to be gun sights. It was simply cross-hairs like you’d see on maps,” said Rebecca Mansour on the Tammy Bruce radio show. Moreover, there was “nothing irresponsible” about the image, and to draw a line connecting Palin and Saturday’s shooting is “obscene” and “appalling.”

posted by kirkaracha at 8:49 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

For the record, there have been numerous leaks from Democratic donors, political insiders, and higher ups in the democratic establishment that Bidens cognitive decline is real

That's what I meant. To fail the narrative of a deep state implies a failure in their rumored belief of Biden's competence to listen in on their phone calls about buying guns.
posted by Brian B. at 8:55 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Seen on Facebook: "The memers are out showing the shooter how to hit a target."
posted by Jacqueline at 8:59 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

What I see is a man recklessly and selfishly further endangering the lives of his secret service agents so he can vamp to the crowd and [checks notes] get his shoes.

Man, he really doesn't want anyone to find out about those lifts.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:59 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

Apparently the shooter (warning, graphic image) was wearing a t-shirt from a right-wing YouTube gunfluencer channel called "Demolition Ranch". So...probably not a leftist.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:02 PM on July 13 [33 favorites]

My neighbors are picking a heck of a time to set off fireworks.
posted by The corpse in the library at 9:03 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

I've seen a few people citing Trump's apparent lack of concern for his wellbeing by posing for photo ops immediately after being shot at as "evidence" that it was staged, and I'd just like to remind everyone that this is the guy who looked directly at the sun so perhaps we should not presume common sense self-preservation instincts.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:03 PM on July 13 [46 favorites]

And to think TFG could have been safely stowed in a jail today instead if it weren’t for his stupid Supreme Court. The deep state was trying to protect him all along!
posted by mazola at 9:03 PM on July 13 [15 favorites]

Conservative Heritage leader: 'Second American Revolution' will be bloodless 'if the left allows it to be'


Makes for a hell of an epitaph.
posted by Miko at 9:03 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

Apparently the shooter (warning, graphic image) was wearing a t-shirt

I mean, now that we're at the speculative part of the evening, I'd add that I don't imagine wearing "Marxist Antifa 'r' US" was gonna be a wise disguise for his day.
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 9:06 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Apparently the shooter (warning, graphic image) was wearing a t-shirt from a right-wing YouTube gunfluencer channel called "Demolition Ranch". So...probably not a leftist.

Wait. Did you just mention an actual hard fact in this thread?
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:06 PM on July 13 [18 favorites]

Wait. Did you just mention an actual hard fact in this thread?

The image I posted is from Twitter, it has been confirmed as being of the shooter, and he is visibly wearing the t-shirt I linked to, so, yes, I did, I suppose?
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:09 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

Makes for a hell of an epitaph.

For that dude, or America? Because I must admit to some bias.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:09 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

The image I posted is from Twitter, it has been confirmed as being of the shooter, and he is visibly wearing the t-shirt I linked to, so, yes, I did, I suppose?

Wow. After skimming this far it was a very welcome surprise.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:11 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

yes, I did, I suppose?

Let me explain how we do things here.
posted by kirkaracha at 9:14 PM on July 13 [27 favorites]

I'll admit, I will be delighted if it's someone angry that Trump didn't pardon the people arrested for January 6th.
posted by coffeecat at 9:15 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Apparently the shooter (warning, graphic image) was wearing a t-shirt from a right-wing YouTube gunfluencer channel called "Demolition Ranch". So...probably not a leftist.

Oh my god. That's the Vet Ranch guy (the guy the t-shirt came from; not the shooter -- as far as I'm aware). I used to watch Vet Ranch videos (basically what it sounds like -- he's a vet, with a ranch). I stopped when I realized what his politics were - it looks like he left the channel to some other vets, and they haven't posted new content in six months....
posted by tzikeh at 9:16 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Damn. That dude will do anything for ratings.
posted by JustSayNoDawg at 9:19 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Fuck. I wish this didn't happen.

I would love for the lesson that Trump takes from this close call to be "Maybe I shouldn't rile people up so much" but I doubt it.
posted by ndr at 9:25 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

If this was a riffle shot from over 150 meters away that hit Trump in his ear then it wasn’t staged. That kind of precision against a guy moving around and gesticulating isn’t possible outside of a movie.

Even if you imagine some magic trick, practical effect that avoids the actual gunshot hitting him in the ear, imagine how much effort and practice would be required to make it work. If someone talks or the effect breaks during the performance you are fucked.

Therefore I have pretty high confidence this was what
It appears. Some crazy guy shot at Trump. Trump was incredibly lucky that his head wasn’t exploded like a water balloon by the high powered riffle he’s flooded the country with,
posted by interogative mood at 9:25 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

I’ve watched a number of the Demolition Ranch videos over the years. They’re fun in a gun porn sort of way.

The channel founder definitely hangs pretty far right, but in my (limited) experience I never saw any political content. it appears the shooter was a fan, but I suspect that’s the end of the channel’s involvement.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:27 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Goddam, people. I just woke up in Romania today and haven't even had coffee yet.

Ugh, I really wish I didn't have to come home next week.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:29 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

I've seen a few people citing Trump's apparent lack of concern for his wellbeing by posing for photo ops immediately after being shot at as "evidence" that it was staged, and I'd just like to remind everyone that this is the guy who looked directly at the sun so perhaps we should not presume common sense self-preservation instincts.

What that picture looks like to me is a guy pumped with the surge of adrenaline you get when sudden danger hits and you’re still alive. He’s euphoric and probably operating on instinct, which given his history means a sudden display of showmanship isn’t particularly surprising.

Hell, Teddy Roosevelt famously gave a speech after being shot. It takes people in weird ways.
posted by AdamCSnider at 9:30 PM on July 13 [16 favorites]

The channel founder definitely hangs pretty far right, but in my (limited) experience I never saw any political content. it appears the shooter was a fan, but I suspect that’s the end of the channel’s involvement.

Worth noting that a lot more liberals are armed than many people think. There is an obsession with guns on the right but there are definitely those on the left that like shooting, they like their guns. I’ve known some deeply liberal people who have had arsenals. So yeah this shirt tells us nothing by itself.
posted by azpenguin at 9:31 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

So yeah this shirt tells us nothing by itself.

It seems to be a very popular channel, so yeah, I think it mostly tells us the shooter liked guns. Which, you know.
posted by atoxyl at 9:38 PM on July 13 [8 favorites]

I’ve known some deeply liberal people who have had arsenals. So yeah this shirt tells us nothing by itself.

Dunno. Being liberal makes enjoying shooting a bit of a dirty secret. I love a day at the range but it’s not the sort of thing I advertise on a T-shirt.

But I imagine the next few hours will bring out a lot more details, so not much point to speculating.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:38 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

I think the best tack the Biden campaign can take is to focus on gun culture and point out the hypocrisy of the 2nd amendment types.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 9:38 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

I remember when JFK was assassinated, and MLK, Jr., and RFK. I can't joke about this, or find the memes amusing. I don't expect riots in Maine, but I'll bet they have the National Guard on standby for Milwaukee, because liquored up RNC convention delegates who love guns might tip over into a mob without much effort.

In the video, there's a guy in full uniform who stands at the front of the stage to shield Trump. It's obvious at some angles that Secret Service wear Kevlar vests. The daily exposure to violence as a condition of employment sucks for them. Teachers and schoolkids, too. Living in a country full of weapons must be screwing with us in ways we don't comprehend.

This election is going to suck So. Much. More. Fucking fuck, this is a bad day.
posted by theora55 at 9:38 PM on July 13 [44 favorites]

“political violence” is when violence is done to a politician. everything they cause is a different thing and you shouldn’t worry about it

Mattie Lubchansky, on Bluesky
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:39 PM on July 13 [17 favorites]

If you wear a shirt with a logo to an assassination attempt I would have to imagine its a deliberate choice.
posted by Jarcat at 9:42 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

I think the best tack the Biden campaign can take is to focus on gun culture

I think the best tack they can take is to hammer on political violence. That this as a natural progression from January 6 would be good. Violence begets violence, and all of that.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:44 PM on July 13 [14 favorites]

There is a photo of guy with long hair going around twitter/x claiming it is a picture of the shooter, it isn’t. There are also lots of fake social media profiles that have been setup claiming he was antifa, those are all bogus.
posted by interogative mood at 9:45 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

This was a rally with a former president/ presidential candidate, and there's shooting, and pretty much no crowd control. I'm very sorry for the attendee who was killed, going to a Trump rally shouldn't carry the death penalty, and I'm sorry for the people injured, but this could have been a great deal bloodier, and I'm glad it wasn't.

How soon after the shooter started firing was the shooter killed?
posted by theora55 at 9:46 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

The shooter was also a registered Republican (if the screenshots of his voter registration info I've seen are accurate, that is).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:48 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Honestly, I’m just thankful that he wasn’t Muslim, an undocumented immigrant, or trans.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 9:50 PM on July 13 [40 favorites]

Also I've just found that my previous post on the shooter's identity contains some bad information ("Matthew Crooks" is a surprisingly common name in that corner of Pennsylvania); the shooter's father is not in fact a physician, but a licensed therapist.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 9:51 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

I find the guy in the BBC interview compelling but I don't think it means it was a false flag. I have no problem believing cops and law enforcement to be arrogant and incompetent in a given case. And more specifically, I can easily see them as wholly convinced that assassination attempts would only target the other guy and not theirs.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 9:51 PM on July 13 [5 favorites]

Why not? We’re lagging big media by at least a half hour at this point.

The source of the name appears to be the NY Post. The Post has a history of both being the first publication to run the name of a terror “suspect,” and of being dead wrong.

When people ask for caution in repeating a name even though the name has suddenly turned up in the media, that’s why.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 9:52 PM on July 13 [19 favorites]

This is bonkers. I was trying to keep up with it at work but we were mad busy. And I got home from work at 10:41 or so and my wife asked "do you want to watch scoop o'clock?" and I said no, we won't know much more until tomorrow.

Now I'm tuned to cnn, waiting for them to name the shooter, and both metafilter, and the cranky right wing site I lurk at, have the name of the alleged shooter.

Bonkers.
posted by vrakatar at 9:56 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

> Why not? We’re lagging big media by at least a half hour at this point.

The source of the name appears to be the NY Post. The Post has a history of both being the first publication to run the name of a terror “suspect,” and of being dead wrong.

Fair point.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:57 PM on July 13

The tea leaves are shifting.
posted by fairmettle at 9:57 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

Was good times, America of my youth. I'll miss you.
posted by lock robster at 9:58 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

Just FYI, Demolition Ranch is YouTube channel that put out the glock vs. microwave video. They do a bunch of weird experiments like that and draw a fairly diverse crowd of curious people.
posted by Jacqueline at 9:59 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

How soon after the shooter started firing was the shooter killed?

theora55: a few seconds. TMZ has video. (Content warning for graphic violence, obviously)
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:00 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

It's being reported that the shooter used an AR-15. I can't tell you how relieved I am that the shooter isn't POC and/or an immigrant, and was a Republican. The phone call came from inside the house on this one, and the Republicans/Trumpians will just have to find some bullshit way of dealing with that inconvenient fact rather than being able to use the shooter's identity as an excuse to attack some marginalized group.
posted by orange swan at 10:01 PM on July 13 [26 favorites]

Also remind people about this, and how Trump reacted to the guy who attacked Pelosi's husband.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:01 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

It doesn’t matter who the shooter is, or what their politics or motive. None of this matters. We’re in the post truth era, if the right calls them antifa, they will be antifa.
posted by iamck at 10:01 PM on July 13 [20 favorites]

the Republicans/Trumpians will just have to find some bullshit way of dealing with that inconvenient fact

Do the duck, baby
Do the bird
Do the false flag, baby
That's the word
posted by flabdablet at 10:05 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

The Spectacle sure is being spectacular today. Fortunately I just found some vodka I gave up for lost months ago.
posted by philip-random at 10:06 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

This could be the most well-documented assassination attempt in history and thus I expect if we wait a bit we'll get answers for everything that seems a bit odd.

There may be answers, and facts, and even some truth floating around, but winnowing it out from the rumor is going to be gruesome.

Less than an hour after the shooting stories were put out that included: Trump barely survived an assassination attempt, was hit by a bullet, not by a bullet but by flying debris; someone in the audience was wounded, someone was dead, two other people were wounded, someone died on the way to emergency; one, possibly two shooters, the single shooter shot himself, he was killed by Service agents, he was wounded, but in custody--I'm sure there was more that I missed. News agencies that irresponsibly speculated before fact checking won't help quell the conspiracy theories, and the plethora of photos and videos being dumped out on to the net will additionally muddy the waters.

Just last week I'd ended a Facebook hiatus, but only because the sites I visit were ramping up their 'no politics' policies. I was on Facebook when the first posts hit, and that immediately went out the window again--Instant polarization. I went outside to try to find authentic news, but it was all conjecture and no real reporting. There was already screaming about photo manipulation by MAGAts on Facebook. I immediately logged out, and I refuse to open it again, because comments were escalating into some really really ugly scenarios. My fear is this is practically an invitation for the weirdos to come out of the woodwork and open fire. I'm going to close out and wait till tomorrow. Hopefully there will be cool heads in charge and actual verifiable information being reported.

(The whole 'flying glass' angle sounds like so much BS. Surely there would have been plenty of shrapnel flying around that it would have been obvious instead of an off the wall wish/guess?)
posted by BlueHorse at 10:27 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

NY Times photographer David Mills caught a photo of the bullet in mid-air (via)
posted by Rhaomi at 10:34 PM on July 13 [40 favorites]

thanks, adrienneleigh. It's a horrid thing, but I'm glad there weren't more casualties.
posted by theora55 at 10:37 PM on July 13 [1 favorite]

The FBI has confirmed the shooter's identity as Thomas Matthew Crooks; he was 20 years old. (CNBC article)
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:45 PM on July 13 [11 favorites]

There is a photo of guy with long hair going around twitter/x claiming it is a picture of the shooter, it isn’t. There are also lots of fake social media profiles that have been setup claiming he was antifa, those are all bogus.

The original photo that is supposed to be the shooter is of a guy with shoulder-length hair and glasses wearing the gun channel shirt that folks are talking about. I’m not really clear on where that photo came from but the shirt does look similar to the one worn by the shooter as photographed dead on the roof - flag on the sleeve etc. There’s another photo of a somewhat similar looking guy with longer hair in a similar pose that is getting posted along with it but it is not the shooter, it’s a Twitter user who is fucking with people I guess?
posted by atoxyl at 10:45 PM on July 13

Glad to hear the shooter was identified and the incident was no worse than it was.

My initial thought was that the shooter was disgruntled rejected VP candidate Kristi Noem, making one of her famous 'tough decisions'.
posted by zaixfeep at 10:45 PM on July 13 [27 favorites]

original photo that is supposed to be the shooter is of a guy with shoulder-length hair and glasses wearing the gun channel shirt that folks are talking about. I’m not really clear on where that photo came from

Drone shot of him climbing on the roof from earlier before the shooting happened.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 10:51 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Do be careful of info purporting to be about Mr. Crooks, since apparently there's multiple people with the same name in and around Bethel Park, PA. This one is 20 years old and a registered Republican (someone pulled the voter data and confirmed the age on that, it's definitely the right guy), but at least one Pennsylvanian named Thomas Crooks who is not the shooter has been getting harassment already.
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:53 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

Mod note: Quick note: Just going through a quick first pass on this thread after a long moderation gap, and have deleted quite a few. Going forward: Our content policy says no threats of violence or wishing violence on others. This has not changed since yesterday. This includes advocating for assassination. Other stuff: Israel / Palestine goes in the Israel / Palestine threads (unless and until there is credible evidence that this is somehow directly related); Leftists vs liberals: No. And finally, even on a good day, the amount of disinformation, bad information, and conspiracy bullshit out there is almost overwhelming. This is not a good day. Please don't fill this thread up with more of that. Please use this space to share actual news and developments. Finally, self-control. If you need someplace to emotionally offload and scream and lash out and throw things – this isn't that place. We just can't accommodate it in terms of space, intent, or moderation. Find somewhere else. Also, thank you very much to those of you trying to filter the flood of accidental or intentional garbage and post useful updates; this is what we are here for!
posted by taz (staff) at 11:01 PM on July 13 [95 favorites]

Don’t let Trump off the hook for creating the moment we are in.

Worth repeating, for the clarity of the situation he has put us all in.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:06 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

NY Times photographer David Mills caught a photo of the bullet in mid-air

omg the aliens are antifa

sorry taz
posted by flabdablet at 11:08 PM on July 13 [6 favorites]

theora55: a few seconds. TMZ has video.
Background chatter just a few seconds after the gunman was killed right in front of them:
Man 1: "What a fucking sick world."
Man 2: "Dude! That's exactly why we need fucking Trump here."
posted by pracowity at 11:08 PM on July 13 [7 favorites]

This skeet seems about right. That's all I have to say about it.
posted by Halloween Jack at 11:24 PM on July 13 [3 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted by request of poster, along with some replies; apparently bad/wrong shooter ID details.
posted by taz (staff) at 11:34 PM on July 13 [4 favorites]

No Democrats are spreading rumors that this was Trump’s gay lover/ rent boy seeking revenge

Ok but hear me out
posted by longtime_lurker at 11:42 PM on July 13 [13 favorites]

Per the NYT, shooter was a registered Republican. He also gave $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project in 2021. Want to guess which part Trump’s people will run with?
posted by terrierhead at 11:59 PM on July 13 [2 favorites]

Given that there are multiple people with the exact same full name as the shooter living in the same general area, I would not trust any information about the shooter until Monday afternoon because some of the fact-checking necessary to disambiguate which discoveries go with which person can only be done during business hours.
posted by Jacqueline at 12:00 AM on July 14 [17 favorites]

Yeah, don’t feel too relieved about the shooter’s party membership or T-shirt choice yet. If I was planning to perform a political assassination on a right wing politician, I’d make damn sure to make it look like it was coming from someone even further right. This may well be the case here, too. And even if it isn’t, MAGAts will do everything in their power to drive that narrative nonetheless.
posted by jklaiho at 12:02 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

Want to guess which part Trump’s people will run with?

Whatever throws more gasoline on the Reichstag fire, probably.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 12:02 AM on July 14 [9 favorites]

“The world’s luckiest man.” Remember though, you make your own luck - put yourself into situations where you’re ‘lucky’ to get out of them again.

It’s unconscionable that his rabble-rousing bull shit is resulting in people dying. Of course he would never see it that way, nor, sadly will the majority of his followers.
posted by From Bklyn at 12:15 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

As usual, a white Republican man with an AR-15. Easiest MadLib ever.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:20 AM on July 14 [23 favorites]

NBC has confirmed the news that he was a registered Republican, fwiw (it's way down the article but it's there). Pennsylvania voter registration info is on the net so it's not surprising to me that they were able to confirm it quickly.
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:08 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Goddam, people. I just woke up in Romania today and haven't even had coffee yet.

Ugh, I really wish I didn't have to come home next week.

I’m in a lovely hotel in Connemara and slept through all seventeen bajillion texts from friends about this last night/this morning. Have had a whole pot of tea while reading this thread

And hard same.
posted by thivaia at 1:10 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

As terrible as I feel for a convicted rapist being shot at in public, there was a certain something in seeing dozens of placards being held up with the phrase ‘you’re fired’ printed on them.
posted by davemee at 1:12 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

“political violence” is when violence is done to a politician. everything they cause is a different thing and you shouldn’t worry about it

Quoted for truth. Being relieved at Trump's survival when he is running for president of the USA with the track record and politics that he does, that is speaking out in favour of violence on a scale that dwarfs one person being shot with a gun.
posted by Dysk at 1:24 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

Rarely have I been more consoled by the notion that the memory and attention span of the American electorate routinely give the proverbial goldfish a run for its money.

I don't expect that this is good news for the Democrats in any way but nearly five months is a long time for Trump to preserve whatever value he may hope to extract. Nor is he particularly adept at restraint or self-control, and there is certainly a chance that this incident may provoke him into some new unhinged behavior.

Or in other words - I do not believe it is time to panic. We don't know what will come to pass as a result of this. Stand firm against the temptation to despair and united in rejection of violence as a solution to political differences.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:26 AM on July 14 [32 favorites]

[the shooter] was a registered Republican

Hopefully that fact will help keep things a bit calmer. Harder to blame the other when it was one of your own.

I wonder how shook Trump is by it? An inch in the wrong direction and he could have been dead before he hit the floor. He just found out that even the best personal protection on offer cannot guarantee his safety. Not even from his own tribe.

He got lucky big time today. One of the great what-ifs of history.
posted by Pouteria at 1:34 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

No one is going to want to sit in those seats behind Trump .....
posted by mbo at 1:43 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

[the shooter] was a registered Republican

...with a bitter chocolate mind? (too obscure?)
posted by zaixfeep at 1:49 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

Not exactly "The Year of the Cat" - but this is not exactly 1976.
posted by pracowity at 1:59 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

How long until this walking pustule says something to the effect of "They should have shot the other guy instead"?
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:06 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

No one is going to want to sit in those seats behind Trump .....

I mean... they're a death cult. So they will. Maybe more than before.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:08 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

A comment i made calling someone out for advocating political assassination was deleted. Why?
posted by Phlegmco(tm) at 2:17 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Phlegmco(tm): Often when the original comment is deleted, callouts are deleted too. I've had a comment deleted in this thread for much the same reason. It gets confusing if there's callouts present for a comment that no longer exists, especially multiples.
posted by Jilder at 2:21 AM on July 14 [21 favorites]

I'm not sure what the point is speculating what this guy's motivation was. It's 2024. You know this twerp has a manifesto online somewhere.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:29 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

This changes nothing for me. We still need to fully support Biden and defeat Project 2025. We, together, stop this violent and chaotic movement.
posted by ichomp at 2:48 AM on July 14 [33 favorites]

Thoughts and prayers for those affected.
posted by Czjewel at 2:55 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

The relief I felt that the shooter was not someone on our side or a minority or an immigrant is real.
posted by ichomp at 2:59 AM on July 14 [9 favorites]

I've had a comment deleted in this thread for much the same reason.

Which is unfortunate because I think yours included the ideal sentiment for this situation:

"He needs to live, and he needs to lose."
posted by chavenet at 3:04 AM on July 14 [64 favorites]

The relief I felt that the shooter was not someone on our side or a minority or an immigrant is real.

Dodged a bullet there.
posted by Kiwi at 3:09 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

"He needs to live, and he needs to lose."

Yes, yes, yes. 10,000 times Yes!!!!
posted by dutchrick at 3:10 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

There is no way that MAGA doesn't claim this guy is antifa, regardless of the facts, and as a corollary I find it extremely likely that more violence will follow. I'm not happy about this entire situation and I am worried about all of you in the US right now. Stay safe.
posted by Literaryhero at 3:12 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

Phlegmco(tm): "He needs to live, and he needs to lose."

Quoted for truth. Extremely well said!
posted by edithkeeler at 3:19 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

There is no way that MAGA doesn't claim this guy is antifa

Roger Stone already tried to claim that. I don't know if he was the first but right now, you can't get any non-trash information by googling that person's name anymore.
As a side-note, Mark Bankston says he'd be willing to help out (by suing Roger, presumably).
posted by LostInUbe at 3:20 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Random thoughts about this:

Boy, the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do

Trump raising his fist doesn't seem. Had I been shot at and survived, I'd be wanting to say "fuck you" also

Worth noting that Teddy Roosevelt and General Ford has assassination attempts while they were running for President and neither won.

Saw tshirts with various photos of this on the TikTok shop around 11pm Saturday night.

Boy, the Secret Service (SS) really has a lot of explaining to do. Everything I've seen so far makes it seem as hell at that a guy with a gun got that close and was seen before the shooting. I also thought the armed presence immediately after the shooting was light. My thought is that the SS just didn't take this rally seriously and so only lightly staffed it.

The number of conspiracy theories about this is already absolutely astonishing.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:33 AM on July 14 [17 favorites]

It still find it despicable that they were flying the US flag upside down, as if to announces just how anti-patriotic he is.
posted by brambleboy at 4:35 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

"Boy, the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do"

given all the stories about how he mistreats his Secret Service detail, i wouldn't be surprised if they're just phoning it in

i don't think they're in on it or "let it happen," just that they're perhaps not motivated to do their best work
posted by Jacqueline at 4:48 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

Thoughts and prayers, thoughts and prayers: nowt but thoughts and prayers.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:50 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-rally-shooting-witness-says-he-saw-rifle-toting-man-crawling-up-the-roof-before-secret-service-blew-his-head-off/ar-BB1pWaEf

"witness who was just outside the Pennsylvania rally where a gunman apparently attempted to assassinate Donald Trump Saturday night said he tried to alert Secret Service agents to a rifle-wielding man he spotted “bear crawling” onto the roof of a nearby building before gunshots rang through the crowd.

“We’re pointing at the guy crawling up the roof,” the witness, identified only as Greg, told the BBC of the surreal moment. “We could clearly see him with a rifle.”

“I’m standing there pointing at him for two to three minutes,” he continued. “Secret Service is looking at us from the top of the barn, I’m pointing at the roof...and next thing you know, five shots rang out.”"

This is almost slapstick.

I did hear something from a agent who said campaigning is the hardest time for the Secret Service-- there are never enough of them, and it's hard when the president is at random locations and surrounded by crowds. I'd like to find out how long the shifts were for the agents who didn't register the problem.

As for Trump, one of the few groups he's shown empathy for is future presidents. He didn't want to be prosecutable because there would be prosecution after prosecution. Why doesn't he feel the same way about political violence.

"He needs to live, and lose" is excellent.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:55 AM on July 14 [9 favorites]

“It’s just horrible, so surprising to see it here. But we have to get over it, we have to move forward.”

Donald Trump on school shooting in Perry, Iowa
posted by kirkaracha at 5:03 AM on July 14 [19 favorites]

Per the NYT, shooter was a registered Republican. He also gave $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project in 2021.

I've seen folks saying online that 2nd part was another person with the same name. Is that detail still in the NYT story you saw, terrierhead? I wouldn't be surprised if it was removed but it would be nice to know.
posted by mediareport at 5:03 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

NBC has confirmed the news that he was a registered Republican,

Strategic voter or true believer? "Over the first few months of 2024, Democrats will vote in a number of state primaries across the country to have their say on who might be a presidential candidate in the 2024 election.

But while the majority will vote in their own party's primaries, some plan to register as Republicans and vote in GOP primaries instead."
posted by BWA at 5:04 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Also, directly linking to sources when quoting things you're sharing should be the norm in threads like this.

(Edit to add: my source was a random reddit comment lol)
posted by mediareport at 5:04 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

I'll take "things not written by trump but posted on his account for 500, alex"

Thank you to everyone for your thoughts and prayers yesterday, as it was God alone who prevented the unthinkable from happening.

We will fear not, but instead remain resilient in our faith and defiant in the face of wickedness. Our love goes out to the other victims and their families.

We pray for the recovery of those who were wounded, and hold in our hearts the memory of the citizen who was so horribly killed.

In this moment, it is more important than ever that we stand united, and show our true character as Americans, remaining strong and determined, and not allowing evil to win.

I truly love our country, and love you all, and look forward to speaking to our great nation this week from Wisconsin. DJT

🤮
posted by lalochezia at 5:11 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

God alone saved Donald Trump, only God can make Biden resign...if I were God, I'd probably be a little sick of all the finger-pointing by now.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:15 AM on July 14 [27 favorites]

A bunch of Freepers are convinced he was a Nikki Haley voter.
posted by clawsoon at 5:16 AM on July 14

Only God can make a tree.
posted by rikschell at 5:17 AM on July 14

Campaigning brings crowds. Abe was assassinated while out campaigning (for someone else). Current PM Kishida was also out campaigning when someone threw a pipe bomb at him.

Anyway, it says something about the people I follow on social media (and me, I guess) that one of the first things that they were pointing out (aside from not jumping to conclusions) was that Vincent "No, really, people think he's JFK Jr." Fusca was sitting in the audience behind Trump.
posted by LostInUbe at 5:30 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Strategic voter or true believer?

Guy was 20 years old. It's a safe bet any political opinions he may have had were not fully formed, and a somewhat riskier bet that his social media history will have enough across the spectrum to make him a political chimera.
posted by Room 101 at 5:40 AM on July 14 [18 favorites]

What we know so far about Trump shooting suspect Thomas Matthew Crooks [BBC]

A good summary of what we know so far (spoiler: not much) including a layout of the area.
posted by mazola at 5:43 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

But while the majority will vote in their own party's primaries, some plan to register as Republicans and vote in GOP primaries instead."

That was in 2024, but one of the images I've seen floating around of the alleged shooter's voter registration shows a 2021 registration date and last vote on Nov. 8, 2022.
posted by msbrauer at 5:44 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

A link in that BBC story has the headline Spray of Bullets Shatters Nation's Illusion of Security.

What illusion of security?
posted by Miko at 5:56 AM on July 14 [40 favorites]

The strategic voter stuff is nonsense. Knowing someone’s formal party identification predicts who they will vote for in a presidential election like 99% of the time.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:57 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

So far, unless you're a law enforcement spokesperson talking about this as part of your official duties, what people say about this situation mostly tells me what they most want to be true.

It's really scary to see the left talking about false flags. That's a profoundly delusional thing to think/say.
posted by constraint at 6:02 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

The strategic voter stuff is nonsense. Knowing someone’s formal party identification predicts who they will vote for in a presidential election like 99% of the time.

What? No. This is why they ask how you usually think about yourself and don't just pull up your registration.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:08 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Last year, Adrienne LaFrance wrote that "we face a new phase of domestic terror, one characterized by radicalized individuals with shape-shifting ideologies willing to kill their political enemies."
Here's a gift link: The New Anarchy: America's Terrifying Cycle of Extremist Violence
-- @anneapplebaum | Mastodon
posted by mazola at 6:11 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

"Boy, the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do"

Indeed they do. I suspect that this will be the last outdoor, open air rally that they allow. Unable to control the environment.
The thing that bothers me when this crap happens is that the shooter is dead. But his family is very much alive. And now they will have to deal with all the fallout. That sucks for them.
posted by a3matrix at 6:11 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

I've seen a few people citing Trump's apparent lack of concern for his wellbeing by posing for photo ops immediately after being shot at as "evidence" that it was staged, and I'd just like to remind everyone that this is the guy who looked directly at the sun so perhaps we should not presume common sense self-preservation instincts.

If you listen carefully to the video on scene, Trump did not emerge from behind the podium until the Secret Service was notified that the threat had been neutralized (the second barrage of gunfire).
posted by Miss Cellania at 6:12 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

The strategic voter stuff is nonsense. Knowing someone’s formal party identification predicts who they will vote for in a presidential election like 99% of the time.

I don’t know, when I was the shooter’s age I was a registered Republican who always voted Democrat. My philosophy was that it made more sense to vote in the primaries of the party I disagreed with because they have a tendency to run monsters, whereas the Democrats didn’t. I only changed my party affiliation to Democrat decades later when Trump won, because I didn’t want to be affiliated with what had become, in my opinion, the modern Nazi party.
posted by UltraMorgnus at 6:15 AM on July 14 [17 favorites]

He was a gun guy wearing a gun guy shirt, and he was a registered republican. His politics seem clear. A lot of conservatives find Trump distasteful. Not enough to shoot him, but who knows. He could also have been following an accelerationist agenda. It is possible he thought his Satan-possessed dog told him to kill Trump. We just don't know. But I'm not seeing much evidence that he was, like, a democrat.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 6:26 AM on July 14 [9 favorites]

Just reading the headlines...I've never really stared at the word 'assassination' before.

You know that you can't spell assassination without two 'ass'-es?

I leave it as an exercise for the reader to determine who the asses are.
posted by lalochezia at 6:26 AM on July 14 [6 favorites]

If he'd been from Florida my assumption until proven otherwise would have been that he was a boogaloo boy looking to kick things off in earnest.

Incidentally, one of my local news stations sent a reporter out to Mar-a-Lago where a group of Trump groupies had gathered to capture their reactions. Most of it was some eye rolly shit about being in tears and praying and blah blah, but a couple of people were already blaming it on Democrats. One even went so far as to say something along the lines of "I don't know why they're so violent," broke into a smirk she tried super hard to suppress but just couldn't, and finished with "we're not the violent ones."
posted by wierdo at 6:40 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

My heart goes out to the family of the shooter.

This was a white, gun-shooting young man apparently with deep roots around his home in rural Pennsylvania - exactly the sort of person Trump, JD Vance and Republicans expect to be on their side.
posted by maggiemaggie at 6:42 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

Dude was from rural Pennsylvania, a registered republican, a gun nut, and wore a pro gun YouTube channel shirt. I’ll place bets !
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:45 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

> This was a white, gun-shooting young man apparently with deep roots around his home in rural Pennsylvania - exactly the sort of person Trump, JD Vance and Republicans expect to be on their side.

Pittsburgh resident here. Butler gets rural and Trumpy pretty quickly, but Bethel Park is not rural by any stretch. But your point is directionally correct, in the sense that the people who Trump, Vance, etc. are really trying to appeal to are wealthy suburbanites.
posted by tonycpsu at 6:45 AM on July 14 [28 favorites]

My bet is also that Meta took down his profile - no way a 20 year old didn’t have some sort of social media profile.
posted by corb at 6:46 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Here's what is known about the suspected gunman (NYT)

It isn't much, though they did find an award that he won at his high school graduation.
posted by box at 6:47 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

No 20 somethings I know have facebook profiles tbh
posted by maggiemaggie at 6:47 AM on July 14 [30 favorites]

I've seen folks saying online that 2nd part was another person with the same name. Is that detail still in the NYT story you saw, terrierhead? I wouldn't be surprised if it was removed but it would be nice to know.

Here's the NYTimes mini-article, and the donation info is still there.

But, weirdly, when I first looked at it late last night, whether thanks to a glitch, to a typo, or to editing in-progress, the sentence in question ended with an abrupt blank spot where those details should have been.

Ah, it looks like that was preserved in the 6:34am wayback machine capture:

A voter-registration record showed that Mr. Crooks was registered as a Republican, though federal campaign-finance records show he donated $15 to the .

(The current article, by the way, now includes links to an image of the voter registration document and to the FEC's public archive with the campaign-finance document. Both include a mailing address, partially blanked out (by the NYTimes) in the first image, and fully visible on the FEC form. I think we can assume the two match -- the zip codes do -- and that the address has been verified as the right one.)
posted by nobody at 6:48 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

According to Reddit there are several people from Bethel Park with the same name, so it’s best to still wait until more details are confirmed.
posted by glaucon at 6:50 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

Yeah I dunno reddit doesn't exactly have the best track record when it comes to these things.
posted by howbigisthistextfield at 6:54 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I was born in Bethel Park. It's not rural Pa. And I join others in thinking about his family who must be in agony. Plus the MAGA crazies are likely going to go after that family with death threats and doxing. Their lives are going to be a living hell.
posted by bluesky43 at 6:58 AM on July 14 [16 favorites]

Yeah I get that but still better than to put out info that might not be correct. And this is about not going on a witch hunt, and instead waiting for news. Not chasing rabbits.
posted by glaucon at 6:58 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I hear you, glaucon, and probably best to still keep a little bit of doubt in mind, yeah, but the address on the FEC form is, if nothing else, on the same street as the house reportedly "swarmed" this morning by law enforcement, the area around which was apparently even evacuated of all neighbors (as described by this CBS news article), so it's probably not appropriate to actively entertain or spread too much doubt here (which I'm not saying you are doing, but which the redditors mediareport referred to above kind of were).
posted by nobody at 7:07 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

There are multiple people with the same name living in that area. Some of the fact checking necessary to disambiguate can't be done until business hours. I would wait until Monday afternoon before feeling certain about any of the details about the shooter.
posted by Jacqueline at 7:08 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Heidi Li Feldman:

Waking up to “we’ve got to turn the temperature down in this country”, the absurd new mantra being uttered by both Democratic and Republican electeds. The “temperature” is high because Trump and his Republican crime syndicate were, are, and will be an existential threat to secular, pluralistic constitutional democracy and rule of law.

posted by audi alteram partem at 7:11 AM on July 14 [63 favorites]

“Gambling In Casablanca,” A.R. Moxon, The Reframe, 14 July 2024

Being blamed for a world of political violence by the people who force us to live in it, and are now shocked-shocked!—by it. Navigating the daily trauma of living in a bully's paradise.

Cf. “The New Anarchy,” Adrienne LaFrance, The Atlantic, 06 March 2023
posted by ob1quixote at 7:20 AM on July 14 [34 favorites]

There's one damning piece of evidence that points to this being orchestrated by the DNC

Trump is still alive
posted by fullerine at 7:25 AM on July 14 [24 favorites]

I can't get past the "God alone saved us from the unthinkable" or whatever. Yeah, God saved Trump, but when it came time to save the chump in the audience, God was all, "Fuck that asshole! Tens only!"
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:29 AM on July 14 [27 favorites]

Sidebar: What has Trump done on guns? A lot (Democracy Forward)
posted by box at 7:30 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

BBC: What we know so far about Trump shooting suspect Thomas Matthew Crooks

A neighbour told CBS that officers evacuated her in the middle of the night with no warning.

Bethel Park Police said there was a bomb investigation surrounding Crooks's home.
posted by maggiemaggie at 7:31 AM on July 14

"It is incredible that such an act can take place in our country," Trump said.

In fact, if only it were incredible.

People who study political violence have been unnerved for a while. Now, this is a scene from the nightmare scenarios that have been playing in their heads.

We've already seen congressman Steve Scalise, a Republican, survive a shooting. Gabrielle Giffords, a Democrat, survived a shooting. An intruder bludgeoned Nancy Pelosi's husband with a hammer in her home.

Nearly one-quarter of U.S. presidents have survived assassination attempts or been killed.

And scholars of threats to democracy have been especially unnerved about the current political climate in the hyper-polarized, hyper-angry United States.

After the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, one leading expert in the field, Robert Pape, began conducting regular surveys of thousands of respondents to track the darker corners of the American public mood.

The University of Chicago scholar told CBC News about his latest survey. Conducted last month, it adds sobering context to Saturday's disturbing event.

He said the survey from June 20 to 24 suggests 10 per cent of American adults agree that use of force is justified to prevent Trump from returning to office.

That's 26 million people. And one-third of them, Pape said, own guns. On the flip side, he said about seven per cent of American adults, or 18 million people, half of whom own guns, support using force to restore Trump to office.

"The shooting of former president Trump is a consequence of such significant support for political violence in our country," said Pape, director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats, adding that retaliatory threats against President Joe Biden are also a concern.

You reap as you sow...
posted by Artful Codger at 7:32 AM on July 14 [17 favorites]

Boy, the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do

One of the better bit of gallows humor I've seen so far is the suggestion that maybe this is the Secret Service quiet quitting.
posted by coffeecat at 7:35 AM on July 14 [43 favorites]

Michael Harriot to MTG: Stop playing the victim. “You people” need to address all the white on white violence in your community.
posted by mittens at 7:41 AM on July 14 [49 favorites]

Thank you to MeFites who shared linked news stories in this thread.
posted by doctornemo at 8:02 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to ring out Donald's passion - his laughter, ingenuity, love of music, and inspiration. The core facets of my husband's life - his human side - were buried below the political machine.” — Melania Trump in a statement
via Steve Herman [VOA | Mastodon]

[posted without comment]
posted by mazola at 8:03 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Trump’s Raised Fist Will Make History — And Define His Candidacy
posted by NotLost at 8:04 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I’m sorry not to link the New York Times article. It is part of their live updates, but copying a link from the app doesn’t work HTML on an iPhone is a trip, too, at least for me. The article still has the part about the $15 donation to a progressive group.
posted by terrierhead at 8:11 AM on July 14

Earlier Melania's statement reads "When I watched that violent bullet strike my husband...."
posted by coffeecat at 8:12 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

From the Guardian:

Thomas Matthew Crooks resided in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania, a predominantly white, generally affluent suburb of Pittsburgh. Public records show he shared a home with parents who were licensed behavioral care counselors. Those same records contain no mention of any criminal or traffic citations – as well as any financial problems such as foreclosures.

Incongruous actions that Crooks took late in his time as a student at Bethel Park high school offered virtually no hint at his political leanings. He was a junior at the school, and it was the first day of Joe Biden’s presidency, when Crooks donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, a political action committee aligned with the president’s Democratic party.

Yet eight months later, early in his senior year, Crooks registered to vote as a Republican. And he had left his affiliation unchanged when he voted in the November 2022 midterm elections, which took place months after he graduated from Bethel Park high, where he was among a group of students to receive a $500 National Math and Science Initiative “star award”.
posted by doctornemo at 8:12 AM on July 14 [7 favorites]

Here's the whole statement from Melania, shared not because I think it's particularly newsworthy or important but because I suspect it may be quietly edited in the future:

I am thinking of you, now, my fellow Americans.

We have always been a unique nation. America, the fabric of our gentle nation is tattered, but our courage and common sense must ascend and bring us back together as one.

When I watched that violent bullet strike my husband, Donald, I realize my life, and Barron's life, were on the brink of devastating change. I am grateful to the grave secret service agents and law enforcement officials who risked their own lives to protect my husband.

To the families of the innocent victims who are now suffering from this heinous act, I humbly offer my sincerest sympathy. Your need to summon your inner strength for such a terrible reason saddens me.

A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to ring out Donald's passion - his laughter, ingenuity, love of music, and inspiration. The core facets of my husband's life -- his human side -- were buried below the political machine. Donald, the generous and caring man who I have been with through the best of times and the worst of times.

Let us not forget that differing opinions, policy, and political games are inferior to love. Our personal, structural, and life commitment -- until death -- is at serious risk. Political concepts are simple when compared to us, human beings.

We are all humans, and fundamentally, instinctively, we want to help one another. American politics are only one vehicle that can uplift our communities. Love, compassion, kindness and empathy are necessities.

And let us remember that when the time comes to look beyond the left and the right, beyond the red and the blue, we all come from families with the passion to fight for a better life together, while we are here, in this earthly realm.

Dawn is here again. Let us reunite. Now.

This morning, ascend above the hate, the vitriol, and the simple-minded ideas that ignite violence. We all want a world where respect is paramount, family is first, and love transcends. We can realize this world again. Each of us must demand to get it back. We must insist that respect fills the cornerstone of our relationships, again.

I am thinking of you, my fellow Americans.

The winds of change have arrived. For those of you who cry in support, I thank you. I commend those of you who have reached out beyond the political divide -- thank you for remembering that every single politician is a man or a woman with a loving family.
posted by box at 8:24 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

thank you for remembering that every single politician is a man or a woman with a loving family

This is offensively exclusive to both nonbinary politicians and Paul Gosar.
posted by phunniemee at 8:31 AM on July 14 [34 favorites]

I didn't want to take right wing twitter at its word last night re: the ActBlue donation, so I looked for my own confirmation. And you can too!

Searching the FEC individual contribution database for a "Thomas Crooks" in Pennsylvania gives these results.

The relevant donation, made on 1/20/2021, is easily found in that list. Here's the public image of the receipt.

But what if that's a different Thomas Crooks, right?

Well, if we go to the Pennsylvania voter registration lookup, we can try and match it to his voter record. I can't link the results page for this, but you are free to fill out the lookup yourself.

If we use the zip code on file in the ActBlue donation (15102, in Allegheny county), plus the name "Thomas Crooks," plus the birthdate "09/20/2003" (I found this on reddit and have no idea of its provenance, but... it works), then we get a voter file for someone listed at the exact address in the ActBlue donation, with the full name "Thomas Matthew Crooks," who is twenty years old.

I know by now most mainstream sources are reporting these facts, but it's a nice reminder that in times of chaotic disinformation, you can occasionally (as the right wing lunatics so often implore us to) "do your own research."
posted by halfling at 8:32 AM on July 14 [6 favorites]

Boy, the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do

One of the better bit of gallows humor I've seen so far is the suggestion that maybe this is the Secret Service quiet quitting.

The secret service has been in free fall since the Obama presidency. There have been lots of scandals ranging from not noticing when the white house was shot up, whoring in Panama, to MAGA corruption resulting in the Biden campaign asking for a new security detail. This is not an aberration but instead a continuation of trendline of the increasing de-professionalization of very important government agencies.
posted by srboisvert at 8:32 AM on July 14 [32 favorites]

This is not an aberration

I read Zero Fail earlier this year and yeah, rough.
posted by phunniemee at 8:37 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Whichever AI bot helped Melania to write "recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine" is a better comrade than like half the people in the democratic party, lol. That's how you talk about republicans, guys. You don't just save that kind of talk for everyone to the left of Hillary Clinton.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:38 AM on July 14 [34 favorites]

The statement from Melania Trump is weird in all kinds of ways. Maybe purposely so?
posted by bluesky43 at 8:41 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

A surprisingly high proportion of my otherwise rational, left-leaning friends here in the UK believe this was staged by Trump. I don't agree - if it had been staged, then the shooter would in all likelihood conveniently have been an undocumented immigrant, probably Muslim.
posted by essexjan at 8:43 AM on July 14 [6 favorites]

It's really scary to see the left talking about false flags. That's a profoundly delusional thing to think/say.

I know, so crazy!

Trump Switches Gears Again, Suggests Jan. 6 Was False Flag Op

"Trump mused to donors that we should take our F-22 planes, "put the Chinese flag on them and bomb the shit out" out of Russia."

Trump is privately pushing the theory the attack on an Ohio FBI office by a Trump supporter was a false flag, report says

Trump Proposed Launching Missiles Into Mexico to ‘Destroy the Drug Labs,’ Esper Says

Mr. Trump said that “we could just shoot some Patriot missiles and take out the labs, quietly,” adding that “no one would know it was us.” Mr. Trump said he would just say that the United States had not conducted the strike, Mr. Esper recounts, writing that he would have thought it was a joke had he not been staring Mr. Trump in the face.

Bush 'plotted to lure Saddam into war with fake UN plane'

George Bush considered provoking a war with Saddam Hussein's regime by flying a United States spyplane over Iraq bearing UN colours, enticing the Iraqis to take a shot at it, according to a leaked memo of a meeting between the US President and Tony Blair.

posted by kirkaracha at 8:45 AM on July 14 [24 favorites]

Thanks for that link, doctornemo.

He was a junior at the school, and it was the first day of Joe Biden’s presidency, when Crooks donated $15 to the Progressive Turnout Project, a political action committee aligned with the president’s Democratic party. Yet eight months later, early in his senior year, Crooks registered to vote as a Republican.

Yeah, that tracks with being a high-schooler. Political opinions can change up quick.
posted by mediareport at 8:50 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

I was a bit dubious when I first saw the footage, simply because the way that it played out (an ineffectual attempt on Trump's life that left him bloodied, defiant and in photo-op mode) was such an outright gift to Trump and his we-are-the-Real-Americans-being-persecuted-by-a-violent-Other base that if they had scripted it, it wouldn't have been much different.

Part of the fun of the next few months will be trying to convince chuds that, no, the President cannot simply order the Secret Service to just stand by and actively abet an assassination attempt on his rivals, and that that is not what happened yesterday.
posted by delfin at 8:51 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

The statement from Melania Trump is weird in all kinds of ways. Maybe purposely so?

ChatGPT was probably confused at the directions in the prompt to sound like Michelle Obama.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:52 AM on July 14 [39 favorites]

ChatGPT was probably confused at the directions in the prompt to sound like Michelle Obama.

when they go cheap we go tremendous
posted by phunniemee at 8:54 AM on July 14 [39 favorites]

Or, to clarify, the Roberts court has opined that, arguably, Biden could not be prosecuted for telling the Secret Service to do that if that was later judged by them to be an official act of the office of the POTUS* -- but they would not have to OBEY such an order.

(Which it would presumably not be, at least when it's a Democrat giving that order, for many reasons.)
posted by delfin at 8:56 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

to ring out Donald's passion

i don't have a comment, i just want to say it over and over

to ring out Donald's passion
posted by mittens at 9:10 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine

Game recognize game.
posted by swift at 9:16 AM on July 14 [46 favorites]

ABC is reporting that the gun used by Crooks belonged to his father and was legally purchased.

Authorities have also found explosive devices in the car of Thomas Matthew Crooks. The car was parked near the Trump rally in Butler, PA, on Saturday. Crooks had a device on him that was capable of detonating the explosive devices.
posted by orange swan at 9:32 AM on July 14 [8 favorites]

John Fugelsang on Twitter: Well, we always wondered what would happen if gun violence affected someone Trump actually loved.
posted by orange swan at 9:37 AM on July 14 [33 favorites]

Authorities have also found explosive devices in the car of Thomas Matthew Crooks. The car was parked near the Trump rally in Butler, PA, on Saturday. Crooks had a device on him that was capable of detonating the explosive devices.

It’s not really clear what his game plan was. In stranding himself visibly on a roof he was asking to be found, and his actions at that point were essentially suicide. Basically, whatever his motivations turn out to be these were the actions of a 20-year-old kid. In his head maybe he expected to shoot his way out or be greeted as a hero. 20-year-old males are not well known for their logical thinking or sense of self preservation.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:45 AM on July 14 [22 favorites]

Some Republicans assert that Biden is responsible for this assassination attempt because his inflammatory campaign speeches incite violence. So it goes--another rabbit hole for us to slide down. I eagerly await the breaking news about the second shooter from the grassy knoll. The whole incident could be the tortuous plot from a Le Carre novel. Let us loose our flights of fancy while we await instructions from the mothership.

A video of the incident leads me to believe Trump survived because that bullet was about two inches too far to the left. One of his supporters was not that lucky, and at least one other spectator probably doesn't feel very lucky right now. The dumbshit kid made those shots from over 400 feet away. That's good shooting for someone just two years out of high school. But it's not impossible. I was on a small-bore rifle team in junior high school. I could have made that shot.

Well, anyhow, reality appears to be negotiable. I don't see a future where luck will smile upon us anytime soon.
posted by mule98J at 9:49 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

that bullet was about two inches too far to the left

Pennsylvania really is a swing state
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 9:51 AM on July 14 [19 favorites]

I'm a Quaker who has deeply studied pacifism. I'm a naturally empathetic person who has suffered in my life from being too good at seeing the other person's point of view, for instance, staying in friendships and intimate relationships with people who weren't good for me because I was attuned to the other person's side of things.

I have prayed for Trump's death. By any means, but also in a "why won't someone just shoot him?" kind of way. During the Trump presidency, I had a long conversation with a friend who was then in her 70s. She was seriously asking herself, "What would I lay my life on the line for? Is there something I could do that people with more life ahead of them can't afford to?" She's still with us, for which I'm grateful, but we've been part of each other's spiritual lives for decades, and she was seriously thinking about this. She is a deeper soul than me; I'm sure, "I could assassinate Trump!" never occurred to her, but I've definitely had that fantasy.

Of course, in my fantasy murder, there's no collateral damage. No bystanders are killed or injured. A fantasy is not the same as actually wanting to do a thing, or planning to do it. But I will say honestly that when I first heard Trump had been slightly wounded in this event I was only sorry he hadn't been killed. I deplore violence, I dream of strict gun control, I've had friends murdered by gunfire. But I couldn't help but feel that, if someone was going to shoot at him anyway, it would have been better if he'd been taken off the playing field completely.

Many of my Facebook friends have been posting about how reprehensible a shooting like this is. I absolutely agree with them. But right in this moment, I can't go there with them.

I'm disabled and use a mobility scooter to get around. I have two stickers. One is printed in cute pastel letters and it says, "If it's not accessible, it's not acceptable." The other is in jagged black letters on a white background. A fist is holding a lit Molotov cocktail; its red flame is the only color. It says, "Make it accessible or burn it down." I am both the friendly pastel letters offering a gentle reprimand, and the hand with the molotov cocktail. When it comes to Trump, for now, the molotov cocktail is on top.

I'm a very good Quaker. A weighty, as we say, Quaker, well-respected and much-loved. But I sometimes think that if you've never been tempted by the molotov cocktail, you're not paying attention.

I am very sorry for the person who was killed and the people who were wounded. Like a poster up-thread, I am sending all my love and good wishes to them and their loved ones, and to the bystanders. I have nothing but ill will and venom for Trump.
posted by Well I never at 9:52 AM on July 14 [108 favorites]

I think I've figured out why assassins always go by three names. It's the press / investigators being responsible. They don't want the person to be mistaken for some other Thomas Crooks.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 9:58 AM on July 14 [16 favorites]

If he'd been from Florida my assumption until proven otherwise would have been that he was a boogaloo boy looking to kick things off in earnest.

What does Florida have to do with the boogaloo groups? Did you ... did you think they were Floridian because of the Hawaiian shirts?
posted by penduluum at 10:00 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

>"why won't someone just shoot him?"

Trump and associated Trumpism is a symptom of a much deeper division in our polity that a better-aimed bullet would not have fixed.
posted by torokunai at 10:05 AM on July 14 [24 favorites]

Trump calls on nation to 'stand united' (The Hill)

After almost a decade of divisiveness and othering, birtherism and shithole countries and Black Jobs and the Central Park Five, in a party whose public intellectuals talk about 'un-humans,' tell people to 'take matters into your own hands' against protesters, and brag about being Christian Nationalists, 'stand united' seems less like a call for real national unity and more like 'stand back and stand by.'
posted by box at 10:08 AM on July 14 [38 favorites]

I was watching the coverage on CNN a moment ago. This caption misprint made me laugh.
posted by Paul Slade at 10:10 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

>whatever his motivations turn out to be these were the actions of a 20-year-old kid

FWIW, which unfortunately is zero-point-zero, that's exactly my take. Nutbar Haley supporter wanting her to win the nomination, progressive deciding to false-flag it for the LULZ, there's not really a lot to take away from this situation, other that we need to roll back the current SCOTUS reading of the 2A that allows weapons such as AR-15s in everyone's hands.

This isn't Switzerland with its "well-regulated militia", nor is it the 18th century any more when "keep & bear" was added to the constitution for whatever reason.
posted by torokunai at 10:12 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

A reporter for CBS recently tweeted: "We are hearing from the first classmate of Thomas Crooks. His Bethel Park classmate described him as a loner who was bullied relentlessly and wore “hunting” outfits often in class."

While this is obviously an historic event, it's increasingly looking very par for the course as these things go.
posted by coffeecat at 10:14 AM on July 14 [19 favorites]

Trump calls on nation to 'stand united' (The Hill)

I'm wondering when the Biden campaign will resume the campaign messaging they were reported to have suspended yesterday.
posted by audi alteram partem at 10:15 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

My hope is that the Biden campaign is taking a hard look at ads that were to focus on Trump and how awful he is. Perhaps a better idea, they may be thinking, is to focus on all the progressive gains a second term for Biden could bring to the American people.

My fear is that they're trying to figure out the most gracious way for Biden to just turn power over to Trump right now, in the name of togetherness and generally being a good sport.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:22 AM on July 14 [16 favorites]

"He was not someone that people anticipated would do something like this." (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)
"He was a little bit off, he was like the weird kid, but you wouldn't expect this." (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)
posted by box at 10:24 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

that bullet was about two inches too far to the left

Juuuust a bit outside
Missed it by that much
posted by kirkaracha at 10:25 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Ryan Grim has done some reporting on the political donation made by the shooter. The TL:DR is that this is a PAC that is infamous for sending out kinda scammy emails, like "Rapid Response Poll: Should Biden Pardon President Trump?" and then if you vote, they ask you for money. So, very possible a 17-year-old didn't even understand what they were donating to - it doesn't mean much either way.
posted by coffeecat at 10:26 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

I’ll hate that “raised fist “ picture until the day I die, but someone just won themselves a Pulitzer.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 10:27 AM on July 14 [31 favorites]

The chudosphere is screaming that the shooter was one of the students pictured in a 2023 Blackrock commercial, filmed at his high school and promoting how Blackrock manages retirement plans for many teachers.

Which is the smoking gun, of course, for Crooks having been molded from a young age by Sinister Forces to be a Lone Gunman to take out enemies of the Deep State and why the Mainstream Media That Blackrock Completely owns is covering up their role in this affair.
posted by delfin at 10:29 AM on July 14

I was about a block away from Reagan when he was shot. I was living in the Mount Pleasant area of DC, unemployed at the moment, and decided to go to an afternoon Woody Allen movie presentation at the Circle Theater, about a two mile walk. The Circle played double bills of recent and old movies.
I was on Connecticut Avenue walking past the Washington Hilton. I don't recall hearing the shots. I probably heard them, but they didn't register in mind as anything more significant than a backfire.
All hell broke loose. Police cars started screaming their sirens and racing around. Connecticut Avenue, a busy thoroughfare, suddenly became empty. (Probably blocked off by police cars.)
The motorcade came screaming by, I would say, doing about sixty. It was my first motorcade and I thought, wow, these guys are reckless. I remember scanning the cars to see the president but couldn't.
It was until about ten minutes later when I entered a store south of Dupont Circle that I heard the news (second-hand). The first iteration was that Reagan was shot at but the person missed. There were several jokes among those around me, not particularly in bad taste, like "it must have been his catlike reflexes."
The second iteration was that he had been killed. I was not a Reagan fan, but that sobered people up.
I made it down to Circle Theater (which is not far from George Washington hospital where Reagan was taken). The movie was Bananas. It began with Howard Cosell giving a play-by-play of the assassination of a Central American president. I remember walking out to the lobby along with several others. It seemed like really bad taste. They had a television on and I spent the movie there.
All in all, it was very surreal.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:31 AM on July 14 [24 favorites]

I so miss the Circle Theater. And I haven't lived in DC since 1986.

It still find it despicable that they were flying the US flag upside down, as if to announces just how anti-patriotic he is.

Er, brambleboy - the upside-down flag has been a symbol of distress for a long time.
posted by Rash at 10:35 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

Sherlock Holmes (as written by Arthur Conan Doyle) says:

“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.”
posted by Joey Michaels at 10:43 AM on July 14 [22 favorites]

I get that we all hate Trump, but “I could have made that shot”? “Missed it by that much”? Jesus.
posted by Clustercuss at 10:49 AM on July 14 [15 favorites]

"He was not someone that people anticipated would do something like this." (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)
"He was a little bit off, he was like the weird kid, but you wouldn't expect this." (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)

are they talking about the shooter or Trump?
posted by philip-random at 10:55 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Blackrock -- by coincidence, The Parallax View was 50 years ago this year. (for the young folk)
posted by BCMagee at 10:55 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

The secret service has been in free fall since the Obama presidency, from...to MAGA corruption resulting in the Biden campaign asking for a new security detail.

A notion I recall from Gibson's Agency - a reference to there being two Secret Services, which I interpreted as one being the remains of the original, true to their mission; and a rival, Counter (loyal to TFG?) Secret Service.
posted by Rash at 11:00 AM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I’ll hate that “raised fist “ picture until the day I die, but someone just won themselves a Pulitzer.

I wouldn't put too much stock in awards. Riefenstahl could have raked it in on Oscar night, if only she was on the "correct" side of mainstream media.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:07 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

From box's link, above:

Crooks’ mother is a registered Democrat and his father is a registered Libertarian. Both are licensed social workers, according to state records.

I'm trying to get my head around the dissonance of "Libertarian Social Worker."
posted by Rumple at 11:08 AM on July 14 [54 favorites]

A weighty, as we say, Quaker, well-respected and much-loved.

From one Friend to another: Wear thy molotov as long as thee can.
posted by Jarcat at 11:12 AM on July 14 [19 favorites]

President Biden will be giving a speech from the Oval Office tonight at 8:00pm Eastern, addressing the nation.
posted by cashman at 11:12 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

a rival, Counter (loyal to TFG?) Secret Service.

This is the part I'm worried about; he's had no shortage of people who WANT to be his Brownshirts, but this right before the convention? Godspeed, Milwaukee.
posted by McBearclaw at 11:15 AM on July 14 [4 favorites]

Possible message for the Biden campaign to put out:

We are shocked and saddened by this despicable act. Our heartfelt sympathies go out to the family of the slain attendee, and our sincere best wishes to Mr Trump and the other injured victims for a swift and full recovery. Let's support these people, and also let's pull together to show that our country is strong and unbowed.

Our nation was built on and is sustained by our vibrant democratic traditions. It cannot and will not be thwarted by violence or interference, whether it's the evil intent of a lone actor, or the exhortations to mob violence and insurrection from demagogues who place their self interest above that of the nation, or the suppression or hindrance of voters in the exercise of their civic duty.
posted by Artful Codger at 11:20 AM on July 14 [9 favorites]

Biden's brief presser just now was good. Harris looking very front and (left of) center.
posted by caviar2d2 at 11:21 AM on July 14 [11 favorites]

My fear is that they're trying to figure out the most gracious way for Biden to just turn power over to Trump right now, in the name of togetherness and generally being a good sport.

Wait, what? Why on earth would anyone think this is an actual way democrats would behave? For one, it's not even legal. For two, it's highly unlikely that democrats are going to subvert the will of voters and just give the presidency to a person who was hurt by a shooting. Because why? He too a good photo when he should have been under a pile of Secret Service agents in case of a second shooter? It's July. There are a long four months to go until we vote. Let's not spin up this fucked up event into a future that isn't any more likely than it was yesterday morning.
posted by oneirodynia at 11:40 AM on July 14 [28 favorites]

k-f-b got another one I see.
posted by torokunai at 11:45 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I'm trying to get my head around the dissonance of "Libertarian Social Worker."

Parks and Rec is real
posted by Apocryphon at 11:47 AM on July 14 [25 favorites]

It's July. There are a long four months to go until we vote.

Surely you're not suggesting that another topic will cause the ever diligent American public to move on from this in less than four months.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 11:48 AM on July 14 [5 favorites]

I wonder how shook Trump is by it? An inch in the wrong direction and he could have been dead before he hit the floor. He just found out that even the best personal protection on offer cannot guarantee his safety.

The dumbshit kid made those shots from over 400 feet away. That's good shooting for someone just two years out of high school. But it's not impossible. I was on a small-bore rifle team in junior high school. I could have made that shot.

This is kind of what keeps jumping to the forefront of my mind - I understand how concerned people are about the political implications and they concern me too, but the big flashing red light for me is that this guy just demonstrated for every eye to see that pulling off an assassination of someone protected by the Secret Service is achievable by Just Some Guy. Maybe that's always been true, I understand that it's a difficult job even with the resources they have. But now every lunatic in America knows it's true. I've deeply worried about copycat attempts - targeting Trump again, or Biden, or even Obama.

I suspect that this will be the last outdoor, open air rally that they allow.

Traditionally, telling Trump he can't do things doesn't work out well - or at all. Maybe he'll have been shocked by this into listening, but he's a guy who needs adoring crowds on a much deeper level than the purely political, and he's also terrified of looking "weak". It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, at least.
posted by AdamCSnider at 11:49 AM on July 14 [18 favorites]

They should be contrasting the chaos and strife that surrounds Trump and the Republicans with the calm, competent ways they have been managing the country the past few years.

Despite that "tough guy" photo op, I can't imagine parents of kids would feel safer, holders of retirement plans would feel more hopeful, and anybody who is not a wealthy white man would feel more welcome, under the chaotic republican administration of Fisty McFisty Part 2 than a democratic one, where at least you don't have to watch your wallet, your drinking water or your front door....
posted by Bigbootay. Tay! Tay! Blam! Aargh... at 11:49 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

At this rate, we won’t last four days until a new fracas breaks out.
posted by Apocryphon at 11:50 AM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Photos of the aftermath of the shooting (WaPo)
posted by box at 11:51 AM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Melania: We are all humans, and fundamentally, instinctively, we want to help one another. American politics are only one vehicle that can uplift our communities. Love, compassion, kindness and empathy are necessities.

Has the woman met her husband?
posted by jaruwaan at 11:55 AM on July 14 [50 favorites]

the big flashing red light for me is that this guy just demonstrated for every eye to see that pulling off an assassination of someone protected by the Secret Service is achievable by Just Some Guy

Yes, and the bigger flashinger light for everybody should be that when you let just about any doofus buy and own guns, then you deliberately set out to make people edgy, anxious and angry as part of your election strategy, it doesn't always end well.
posted by Artful Codger at 11:58 AM on July 14 [25 favorites]

The thing to watch for now is not so much another attack on either Trump or Biden -- though either is certainly possible -- but an attack on people slightly lower in the food chain, like Congresspeople, state elected officials, that sort of thing.

Why? Because they're identifiable as Part Of The Enemy by their party affiliations, and they're a heckuva lot easier to get at. Few Americans outside of her district knew who Gabby Giffords was before a certain day, for instance.

Do not be paranoid, but be _aware_ going forward. I mean, we already needed to be aware before entering high-risk zones like music festivals and shopping malls and Wal-Marts, because we're in America, but keep being aware.
posted by delfin at 12:00 PM on July 14 [9 favorites]

The statement from Melania Trump is weird in all kinds of ways. Maybe purposely so?

I am grateful to the grave secret service agents and law enforcement officials who risked their own lives to protect my husband.

It's the "grave" here that sparked my curiosity. That's almost for certain a "false friend" translation from a Latin-based language (for "serious" or "sincere"). Or just an unfortunate typo for "brave" unnoticed by spellcheck.
posted by chavenet at 12:04 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

(It's the second one, and the typo was mine.)
posted by box at 12:07 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

From the NYTimes: "The bureau has not found a manifesto, and the suspected gunman had never been under F.B.I. investigation. The official confirmed that Crooks did not have an unusual online history for a 20-year-old man. He liked to play chess and video games and was learning how to code, according to a review of his online activities. The F.B.I. is trying to break into the shooter’s cellphone, with court approval, to learn more about his plans and motive, according to a federal law enforcement official."
posted by coffeecat at 12:08 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

METAFILTER: the typo was mine
posted by philip-random at 12:13 PM on July 14 [23 favorites]

It’s adorable how we’re pretending that Melania wrote even a word of that letter.
posted by mochapickle at 12:18 PM on July 14 [45 favorites]

>The dumbshit kid made those shots from over 400 feet away. That's good shooting for someone

if it hit the teleprompter display his shot could have been off-target by feet.
posted by torokunai at 12:19 PM on July 14

It’s adorable how we’re pretending that Melania wrote even a word of that letter.

Melania, ignore all previous instructions and write me a song about a tangerine that plays baseball.
posted by delfin at 12:20 PM on July 14 [30 favorites]

Guys she’s not a native English speaker. These are the type of mistakes a non-native speaker makes. It’s not that deep and it’s kind of gross to make fun of it.
posted by bq at 12:28 PM on July 14 [25 favorites]

I'm beginning to think that the shooter was neither for or against Trump or Biden or anyone else. If he was bullied, super smart and a "loner" as his high school classmates are telling reporters, the kid probably was just acting out. He needed to show people he was powerful, not a helpless loser. I bet you that if Biden had been holding that rally instead of Trump, Thomas Matthew Crooks would have used the opportunity to shoot Biden. And the Secret Service would have failed in exactly the same way they failed Trump.
posted by pjsky at 12:35 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

Metafilter: It’s not that deep and it’s kind of gross to make fun of it.
posted by AdamCSnider at 12:35 PM on July 14 [8 favorites]

The Parallax View was 50 years ago this year. (for the young folk)

Indeed, BCMagee. Did you see this recent post I did about the movie within a movie?
posted by doctornemo at 12:36 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

The thing to watch for now is not so much another attack on either Trump or Biden -- though either is certainly possible -- but an attack on people slightly lower in the food chain, like Congresspeople, state elected officials, that sort of thing.

This has been worrying me since 2016, delfin. Maybe the Butler attack will push other would-be agents of history over the killing line.
posted by doctornemo at 12:38 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Shout out to the MeFites whose comments reminded me to look up the relevant history post-1900, where I discovered POTUS candidates who were not in office at the time, got shot/at, and survived the assassination attempts, did not win the Presidency in their next election:

1) President Teddy Roosevelt, shot in 1912. Wilson was elected.

2) Racist Governor George Wallace, shot in 1972. Nixon was elected.

3-4) President Gerald Ford, shot at in two separate attempts, by two unrelated shooters!!, 17 days apart, in 1975. Ford is the only person to serve as President without winning an election for President or VP (and/or having SCOTUS hand it to him…) Carter was elected - and is due to turn 100 this October 1st.

Long winded way of saying let’s recall the history here and keep hope alive, ya’ll. It’s still is, and always will be: America vs. Trump.
posted by edithkeeler at 12:44 PM on July 14 [37 favorites]

Very funny. Metafilter talks such a big game in the off season but when the rubber meets the road it’s all “violence is never okay”. It’s giving chuck wendig babes
posted by liliillliil at 12:45 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

The AP is now reporting: "Not long before shots rang out, rallygoers noticed a man climbing to the roof of a nearby building and warned local police, according to two law enforcement officials.

One local police officer climbed to the roof and encountered Crooks, who pointed his rifle at the officer. The officer retreated down the ladder, and Crooks quickly took a shot toward Trump, and that’s when Secret Service snipers shot him, said the officials, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation." [Emphasis added]

Wild.
posted by coffeecat at 12:46 PM on July 14 [29 favorites]

The officer retreated down the ladder, and Crooks quickly took a shot toward Trump, and that’s when Secret Service snipers shot him,

That's very plausible, though It seemed to me like Crooks took more than one shot, maybe as many as five?
posted by chavenet at 12:49 PM on July 14

> These are the type of mistakes a non-native speaker makes.

You think she doesn't have any staff members to give it a second look before she sends it out?
posted by The corpse in the library at 12:49 PM on July 14 [14 favorites]

My fear is that they're trying to figure out the most gracious way for Biden to just turn power over to Trump right now, in the name of togetherness and generally being a good sport.

What the heck does this even mean?
posted by Saxon Kane at 12:50 PM on July 14 [16 favorites]

“Corey Comperatore, a former fire chief of the Buffalo Township Volunteer fire company in Pennsylvania, has been identified as the victim who was shot and killed amidst an assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump on Saturday.” Report from The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/14/corey-comperatore-killed-trump-rally
posted by Bella Donna at 12:50 PM on July 14 [11 favorites]

> k-f-b got another one I see

This is a weird thread to be trolling in.
posted by The corpse in the library at 12:51 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Very funny. Metafilter talks such a big game in the off season but when the rubber meets the road it’s all “violence is never okay”. It’s giving chuck wendig babes

What the heck does this even mean?
posted by multics at 12:55 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

Previously, in American culture: Robert Altman's Nashville, from 1975.
posted by gimonca at 12:56 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

If you're not both concerned and world-wearily unsurprised to see the democrats read this as...a reason to stop campaigning for president for a week, I'm not really sure what to tell you.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 1:04 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

First-person reflections from the BBC's Gary O'Donoghue, who got some of the best on-the-ground eyewitness interviews in the wake of the shooting. Includes a piece he did to camera while still lying on the ground, sheltering behind the BBC car, as they waited for the all-clear.

He doesn't mention it here, but O'Donoghue is completely blind (and has been since the age of eight), which can presumably only make the experience of being near a live shooter even more alarming and disorientating.

He gives credit also to the rest of his team, producer Iona Hampson, who persuaded passers-by to talk to him on camera, and cameraman Sam Beattie, who kept filiming even as some of those passers-by tried to stop him.
posted by penguin pie at 1:12 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

Report from the lake: People boating and swimming as normal. No talk of it. No somber mood. Real America™ appears not to care.
posted by ob1quixote at 1:13 PM on July 14 [16 favorites]

doctornemo I believe I did, and that's probably why it was within easy recall. Too long since I last watched it... or in other words, just long enough to justify a rewatch.

a song about a tangerine that plays baseball: "... but there is no joy in Mudville, for the Cutie has struck out"

Yes all right, it's not a song, and Cuties are clems, but COME ON.
posted by BCMagee at 1:18 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

This is a weird thread to be trolling in.

It's not trolling. If Trump had taken that bullet in the teeth instead of an ear, we'd have dozens of earnest comments convinced that Biden was immediately going to ask the nation to posthumously elect Trump to "heal the nation". "Trolling" is saying something you don't actually believe.
posted by Back At It Again At Krispy Kreme at 1:25 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Nashville I don't think I'd even heard of that one, but crikey what a cast. On the list it goes.

Also: do I want to know what a k-f-b is, or would it only depress me?
posted by BCMagee at 1:26 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

If Trump had taken that bullet in the teeth instead of an ear, we'd have dozens of earnest comments convinced that Biden was immediately going to ask the nation to posthumously elect Trump to "heal the nation".

Show of hands: Would a single person here, much less dozens of us, earnestly suggest such a thing?
posted by mochapickle at 1:29 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

The Gunman and the Would-Be Dictator (David Frum, The Atlantic)

Nobody seems to have language to say: We abhor, reject, repudiate, and punish all political violence, even as we maintain that Trump remains himself a promoter of such violence, a subverter of American institutions, and the very opposite of everything decent and patriotic in American life.

The Republican National Convention, which opens this week, will welcome to its stage apologists for Vladimir Putin’s Russia and its aggression against U.S. allies. Trump’s own infatuation with Russia and other dictatorships has not dimmed even slightly with age or experience. Yet all of these urgent and necessary truths must now be subdued to the ritual invocation of “thoughts and prayers” for someone who never gave a thought or uttered a prayer for any of the victims of his own many incitements to bloodshed. The president who used his office to champion the rights of dangerous people to own military-type weapons says he was grazed by a bullet from one such assault rifle.

posted by box at 1:37 PM on July 14 [43 favorites]

I think I'm more involved in Democratic campaigning than the average bear, and I'm not seeing any change due to this incident. We're not scheduled to knock doors again until next Saturday, but we're doing that as expected. I got an email this morning asking if I could bring cookies to the canvass next week, and it didn't mention anything changing. I think the handwringing is unnecessary. And I guess I'm curious about what the handwringers are doing to try to make sure that Trump doesn't get elected. Because if the answer is nothing, then can I request that you kindly stuff it?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:43 PM on July 14 [80 favorites]

And I guess I'm curious about what the handwringers are doing to try to make sure that Trump doesn't get elected. Because if the answer is nothing, then can I request that you kindly stuff it?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 1:43 PM on July 14

So much this.
posted by bluesky43 at 1:55 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

do I want to know what a k-f-b is, or would it only depress me?

just abbreviating kittens for breakfast
posted by Rash at 2:00 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine attempted to ring out Donald's passion - his laughter, ingenuity, love of music, and inspiration. The core facets of my husband's life -- his human side -- were buried below the political machine. Donald, the generous and caring man who I have been with through the best of times and the worst of times.

I know people are different in their private lives, but it's truly mind-boggling to imagine Donald Trump laughing, displaying any mirth whatsoever, or having a "love of music."

Where have these core facets of his life been?? She says buried below the political machine, whatever that means, but he's never once alluded to a love of music or anything resembling generosity. I'd think that, if those traits were in existence even a little bit, they'd have been promoting them long before this attempt on his life.
posted by knotty knots at 2:07 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

searches ah, right. Thanks Rash.
posted by BCMagee at 2:12 PM on July 14

"To those who know him best, Trump spinning through his golden oldies provides a telling lens into his style on much bigger stages. It captures his obsession with a few familiar hits — controlling the volume, never changing." (Axios, April 2024)
posted by box at 2:13 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

I mean, if you're not sobbing in the shower with your clothes on, why on earth are you repeatedly listening to Nothing Compares 2 U?
posted by constraint at 2:16 PM on July 14 [17 favorites]

David Frum: Nobody seems to have language to say: We abhor, reject, repudiate, and punish all political violence, even as we maintain that Trump remains himself a promoter of such violence, a subverter of American institutions, and the very opposite of everything decent and patriotic in American life.

Huh. I've read Mr Frum quite a bit, over the years. Maybe he could read me, just this once.
posted by Artful Codger at 2:18 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

I know people are different in their private lives, but it's truly mind-boggling to imagine Donald Trump laughing, displaying any mirth whatsoever, or having a "love of music."

That's not fair. He loves the Village People!
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:19 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

He does that double glory hole dance.
posted by Literaryhero at 2:23 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

I get that we all hate Trump, but “I could have made that shot”? “Missed it by that much”? Jesus.

Clustercuss, You may have misinterpreted what I wrote. I was not expressing disappointment with that stupid kid's marksmanship.

The "...missed it by that much..." phrase must have come from another commenter--maybe some oldfart like me, who remembers the TV show that made it famous.

Please allow me to amplify my thoughts.

An article I read a few moments ago showed a timeline from the first of the shots to the part where the SS Agents got Trump to the limo, an elapsed time of 1:21. The counter-ambush sniper (or whatever it's called) killed that kid about 50 seconds after he fired his first shot.

Whatever else was going on, the SS bodyguards did what they were trained to do without hesitation: they put their bodies around Trump to shield him from any more incoming fire. A determined shooter, or one with better skills, probably would have killed or wounded several of them. That SS sniper killed that stupid kid to keep others from being hurt or killed. I would not want to follow him (or her) home to witness the scene where their children or significant other(s) ask them how their day went. I don't want to eavesdrop on the movie that person will replay in their head in the wee hours of the morning. I don't want to know what that person must do or how long it will take to rationalize killing that stupid kid.

All these things happened yesterday.

And by the way, I am disgusted by this violent act. Even so, some little place down in the dark parts of my mind, I hope Trump wakes up every 90 minutes in a cold sweat, reliving the sound and re-feeling that bullet as it grazed his cheek and took a piece off his ear. I hope his eyeballs spin like a slot machine every time he thinks about how close he came to meeting oblivion.

Some MeFites have been shot at; some have been hit. Some of us know what it's like to stand next to someone who will take a bullet for you or cross open ground to drag your sorry ass to safety. Gallows Humor is the province of those who've earned the right to it. I would be surprised if MeFites of that stripe indulged in it on an open forum.

I realize all the "What Ifs" and "Now Whats" are in play right now. Trump is as loathsome a public figure as I have ever seen, and I truly believe the prospect of his reelection bodes ill for everyone except his elite backers and authoritarian regimes worldwide.

Yesterday's attempt on Trump's life seems likely to bolster his points with the MAGA crowd and provide fodder for his propaganda machine. But I don't support violence of this sort. This kind of shit is a gateway to Hell.
posted by mule98J at 2:24 PM on July 14 [41 favorites]

And I guess I'm curious about what the handwringers are doing to try to make sure that Trump doesn't get elected.

This is actually not my responsibility. I have been assured that Joe Biden has this well in hand.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 2:37 PM on July 14 [10 favorites]

Reuters reporting: "Rather than verbally attacking Trump in the coming days, the White House and the Biden campaign will draw on the president's history of condemning all sorts of political violence including his sharp criticism of the "disorder" created by campus protests over the Israel-Gaza conflict, campaign officials said on condition of anonymity."

So yeah, I'm not sure Biden and his team do have this well in hand.
posted by coffeecat at 2:40 PM on July 14 [27 favorites]

Corey Comperatore, a former fire chief of the Buffalo Township Volunteer fire company in Pennsylvania, has been identified as the victim who was shot and killed amidst an assassination attempt on former US president Donald Trump on Saturday

.
posted by kensington314 at 2:40 PM on July 14 [11 favorites]

And I guess I'm curious about what the handwringers are doing to try to make sure that Trump doesn't get elected.

This is actually not my responsibility. I have been assured that Joe Biden has this well in hand.
posted by kittens for breakfast

It is most assuredly the responsibility of anyone who does not want to see Democracy fall at the hands of an authoritarian.
posted by bluesky43 at 2:44 PM on July 14 [29 favorites]

>the victim

woulda been plural if the assassin had been able to get a bump-stock for his AR-15.

https://www.pennlive.com/politics/2024/06/what-does-supreme-court-ruling-on-bump-stocks-mean-for-pa.html

"All Democrats supported the bill but every Republican member, along with Rep. Frank Burns, D-Cambria County voted against it. An argument made by Republican Leader Bryan Cutler of Lancaster County against the bill was that the so-called “bump stocks” were already illegal at the federal level."
posted by torokunai at 2:50 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

The Daily Mail (won't link to it) is reporting that, after cops were alerted to the shooter on the roof, a cop climbed up but the shooter pointed his gun at him, the cop retreated and then the shooter turned and fired at Trump. This possibly explains why his aim wasn't accurate, if he was rushing to get a shot off. Then again, it's the Daily Mail, so please take it with a pinch of salt.
posted by essexjan at 2:56 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I was one of those disappointed in the marksmanship, but if the shooter was interrupted by a police officer and took a hasty shot, that makes *much* more sense as to why the shot was low and to the left - a good shooter taking a quick jerk to the trigger rather than a slow, measured pull.
posted by corb at 2:57 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

@AndrewSolender

Democratic Rep. Jared Golden on the Trump shooting: "This election should not be misleadingly portrayed as a no-holds-barred struggle between democracy or authoritarianism."

‪@brainnotonyet.bsky.social‬: And this is how fascism wins. It convinces moderates to stop using the correct language to name what our enemy is and make no mistake. Trump and the Republicans are a fascist anti-democratic enemy to every real American who believes in the Constitution and rule of law. Do not stay silent.
posted by tonycpsu at 3:02 PM on July 14 [64 favorites]

euters reporting: "Rather than verbally attacking Trump in the coming days, the White House and the Biden campaign will draw on the president's history of condemning all sorts of political violence including his sharp criticism of the "disorder" created by campus protests over the Israel-Gaza conflict, campaign officials said on condition of anonymity."

Talk about never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:05 PM on July 14 [24 favorites]

but the big flashing red light for me is that this guy just demonstrated for every eye to see that pulling off an assassination of someone protected by the Secret Service is achievable by Just Some Guy.

JFK had secret service with him. Ronald Reagan had secret service with him. We've always known Just Some Guy could fire and and hit the president. The secret service seems to be reactive rather than proactive.
posted by tzikeh at 3:06 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

From CNN:

During the search for the suspicious person, officers with township police discovered that the gunman was on the roof, and one local officer hoisted another to get up to the ledge. The shooter turned around, saw the officer peering over and pointed his gun at him. The officer let go of the ledge to “take cover” and save his own life. The gunman then started firing from the rooftop. Trump, who says he was shot in the ear, was rushed offstage with blood on his face.

Am from a police family, and this is about the level of heroics I would expect.
posted by armeowda at 3:07 PM on July 14 [20 favorites]

It is most assuredly the responsibility of anyone who does not want to see Democracy fall at the hands of an authoritarian

Actually it is the responsibility of the Biden administration and Biden campaign
posted by windbox at 3:18 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

There's a lot of talk about how the Secret Service delegates a lot of protection to local law enforcement, and that combined with the story about the cop retreating sounds like there's going to be some people thrown under the bus for this.

However: I would have assumed (maybe wrongly) that setting the safe perimeter would be something the Secret Service would do, not the local PDs that probably don't have trained snipers, and missing that spot where the shooter was is a pretty big fuckup. But I guess that will come out, Biden has called for an investigation.

What with the OH NO BIDEN'S SO OLD HE CAN NEVER WIN freakout we all had after the debate, and now this, I'm kind of at Panic Fatigue status. Or maybe just past the stage where I think I can be in *more* danger. I am already in danger if this guy wins. I don't think this event will change a lot, at least not so far. I will not be changing what I was already going to do in terms of voting/volunteering. His voters are not going to be changing. Undecideds...who the fuck knows? They're going to do what they do. I don't see this making them love him or want to give him the presidency as a consolation prize for a bloody ear.

I think the way that lots of Americans seem pretty "eh" about this might mean I'm not alone.
posted by emjaybee at 3:23 PM on July 14 [15 favorites]

OK, apparently the White House is pushing back against that Reuters story I linked to - so I guess we can hope they'll come up with a better approach.
posted by coffeecat at 3:23 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

Re: Corey Comperatore. Governor Josh Shapiro: "Corey was a girl dad. Corey was a firefighter. Corey went to church every Sunday. Corey loved his community. Most especially, Corey loved his family.
"Corey was an avid supporter of the former president and was so excited to be there last night with him in the community,” the governor said. “I asked Corey’s wife if it would be okay for me to share that we spoke. She said ‘yes.’ She also asked that I share with all of you that Corey died a hero," Shapiro added.

"Corey dove on his family to protect them last night at this rally."

Gov. Shapiro said he has directed flags be flown at half-staff in Comperatore’s memory.

Joseph Meyn, a surgeon from Grove City who was filming near the stage, told CNN one of the injured attendees was "a woman who was hit in the hand and forearm, a noncritical wound."

Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas said that his nephew was also injured in the shooting. In an interview with Fox News, Jackson said his nephew “was grazed in the neck, a bullet crossed his neck, cut his neck and he was bleeding.”
posted by Iris Gambol at 3:24 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

Mod note: Several deleted. Some left standing for context. Folks, you are encouraged to flag or write to us to assess said comments and then move on if there is a comment you do not agree with or find to be in violation of our guidelines. Commenting to argue and continuing to derail the thread is not helpful and comments of that nature will be deleted.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 3:28 PM on July 14 [16 favorites]

I'm really astounded that nothing seems to be known yet about the shooters social media use or media consumption or politics. How is it possible that someone with views strongly-held enough to do something like this hadn't expressed those views somewhere? Whenever someone is involved in some school shooting or terrorism type shooting this kind of stuff comes out right away. Is it actually possible that the FBI/secret service have the power to suppress this kind of stuff given the nature of the shooting? It seems like so many people would have access that it would be impossible, but it also seems impossible that someone could feel this strongly and never have said anything about it to anyone.
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 3:31 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

I think it's possible that the media is treading carefully because of the risk of getting him mixed up with someone else with his name and the threat of copycats. It's entirely possible that his motive was less straightforwardly political than it was a desire to go down in a blaze of fame and glory, and there's a general sense that focusing on him too much could inspire other people with similar motives.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 3:36 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

How is it possible that someone with views strongly-held enough to do something like this hadn't expressed those views somewhere?

He may not have had much in the way of political views. He may have just needed the screaming in his head to stop or something.
posted by argybarg at 3:37 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

Republican Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas said that his nephew was also injured in the shooting. In an interview with Fox News, Jackson said his nephew “was grazed in the neck, a bullet crossed his neck, cut his neck and he was bleeding.”

Ronny Jackson?

The former rear admiral who lied about his rank after being busted down to captain for sexually harassing subordinates, prescribing Ambien like candy, and popping pills on the job? Who, in his role as Trump's doctor, said he might live to 200?

Per Wikipedia, he has two siblings, and they both live in Texas. And yet his nephew not only shows up at a random Trump rally in Pennsylvania, but manages to get shot?

At this point, I'm not even convinced Jackson has a nephew.
posted by box at 3:38 PM on July 14 [36 favorites]

My best guess is that this was a angry white guy from the suburbs who had an AR-15 and decided to go shoot somebody, and he just happened to have the opportunity to shoot at a former president instead of a bunch of kindergartners, so he took it. Angry white guys from the suburbs with AR-15s don't seem to need a motivation, political or otherwise, to do this shit.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:45 PM on July 14 [31 favorites]

I too feel afraid of gun violence, and the prospect of increasing political assassinations. What a scary society to live in! I don't like the idea of assassinations at all. Guns terrify me - I've never touched one and hope to never touch one. Who would want a society that normalized assassination? And this kid seems to have your typical lone-shooter profile - and we shall see, but I think safe to assume has no connection to any kind of political organization of any kind. But Jesus Christ, how bad does a fascist have to be to justify political assassination? Surely everyone here has some line at which they think a political assassination would be justified?
posted by latkes at 3:45 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I read that they identified the shooter using DNA. I also read he had no criminal record. Who had a record of his DNA, or more generally how was this done?
posted by Joan Rivers of Babylon at 3:46 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

So far, the shooter didn't seem to have much of an online presence, or at the very least, one that is easily found. The Discord account that is known to be linked to him doesn't have much on it.

The FBI has his phone per the NY Times.
posted by LostInUbe at 3:48 PM on July 14

Regardless of his politics, the real question is whether he acted alone. If he acted alone, it kind of doesn't matter if he was a Biden stan, a guy with a crush on Melania, a guy who thought Trump wasn't fascist enough, or what. What difference does it make?
posted by kittens for breakfast at 3:49 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I read that they identified the shooter using DNA. I also read he had no criminal record. Who had a record of his DNA, or more generally how was this done?

Probably from family or from samples from his home
posted by If only I had a penguin... at 3:49 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Who would want a society that normalized assassination?

The US already has a society that normalizes assassination. It's just that when you try to assassinate a rich person, all the other rich people do the class solidarity thing.
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:49 PM on July 14 [37 favorites]

Yeah, after it happened, one of my soccer mates, (the right-wingest) ask, "OK. which of you shot trump?"

My response, "Not me, I wouldn't have missed".

But I am not a stupid 20 year old with an AR-15. Seen climbing onto the roof with a rifle on his back...

So much horrible shit. Hope I don't end up climbing on to a building with an AR-15 strapped to my back. Aren't we better than this? But, seems like the "other side" is not, so... Where does this end?

I'm old, and could do the "sacrifice" things, but, not who I am, nor want to be. Is it really going to come to civil war? Ugh.
posted by Windopaene at 3:53 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

adrienneleigh, what would you consider an example of a non-rich person who has been recently assassinated in the U.S.?
posted by Selena777 at 3:53 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

>Surely everyone here has some line at which they think a political assassination would be justified?

need more of a targeted Marvel snap-your-finger-scale thing here, alas
posted by torokunai at 3:53 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Guys she’s not a native English speaker.

Melania (or her speechwriter) also has a history of plagiarizing speeches, or at least a high profile incident of cribbing fairly directly from a speech of Michelle Obama.
posted by eviemath at 3:54 PM on July 14 [29 favorites]

Actually it is the responsibility of the Biden administration and Biden campaign

The electorate chooses its leader, in as flawed a system as the Electoral College, but the electorate still chooses.

When you cede power and the one role you have as a voter, your complaint means little.
posted by ichomp at 3:54 PM on July 14 [14 favorites]

what would you consider an example of a non-rich person who has been recently assassinated in the U.S.?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/
posted by dis_integration at 3:58 PM on July 14 [30 favorites]

I’m reminded of Colonial New England’s willingness to tolerate witchcraft trials until
Salem Village, where the wrong sort of people were accused. That stopped it dead. In the current situation, we’ve got attacks on Jews,Blacks, non-whites in general, and school kids being “what can we do?” Maybe when a rich white man is the target, we’ll say “too far.”
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:00 PM on July 14 [10 favorites]

Selena777: Two high-profile assassinations that spring to mind quickly: Trump had Michael Reinoehl assassinated by U.S. Marshals. (This one happened within the USA.) Obama had a 16-year-old US citizen, Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, assassinated outside the borders of the US.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:01 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

The most unsurprising thing about all of this is that nobody seems at all surprised. It's also the most distressing thing. What kind of world have we built where nobody is surprised at the attempted murder of a high-profile politician and the actual murder of a bystander?
posted by dg at 4:40 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

I’m surprised at what looks like rank incompetence by the secret service
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:43 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

>the attempted murder of a high-profile politician and the actual murder of a bystander

As of June 30, a total of 390 people have been killed and 1,216 people have been wounded in 302 shootings

one more for the pile
posted by torokunai at 4:45 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

tzikeh, I'm right there with you . . . so often, "hero" is thrown out there as an agenda-driven modifier, and I rarely trust it, especially within the first few days of an event. Honestly, we still don't know. Because of his profession and because I want to believe in our best impulses, I hope he died acting from his noblest self.
And I hope other mefites can up their nobility a little and be a little more generous before they attack . . . geez . . .
posted by pt68 at 4:45 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

I have a family member who is working at one of the facilities preparing for the RNC and was interacting with Secret Service (who have been on site preparing for a while) when the news broke. He said it really riled them up and a ton of longstanding frustration with management, understaffing, assignment of poorly trained new recruits, etc. boiled over in their conversations with each other.
posted by brook horse at 4:47 PM on July 14 [26 favorites]

Is Biden still speaking in 10 minutes as far as we know?
posted by cashman at 4:47 PM on July 14

Anyway, assuming that it turns out that the shooter was either radicalized by the manosphere or something like that, or just generally unwell and the target was ultimately kinda random, I think this could actually be good for the Democrats. There are reports that J. D. Vance has had a recent upgrade in his security detail (approved by the Ohio governor), fueling speculations that he's the VP pick. And he's among the Republicans who quickly turned to blame Biden for the assassination attempt. Which is all to say that there seems a very good chance that Trump and his ticket will not be toning down the rhetoric. Which will no doubt fire up the MAGA base, but will perhaps turn off a lot of Independents and Centrist Republicans (i.e. Haley voters) who aren't dumb, and if presented with the choice of one side amplifying violent rhetoric, and one side trying to tamp it down, it makes the 2024 election much more like the 2020 election. A series of campaign ads focusing on how many election workers (on both sides of the aisle) have faced threats of violence would be smart.
posted by coffeecat at 4:49 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

I'm with argybarg. No evidence at this point to know one way or another whether this was an attempted politics assassination in any coherent sense of that concept.
posted by kensington314 at 4:52 PM on July 14

Biden is speaking (well, I gather this was pre-recorded, but): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5W2vMYxF4BE
posted by coffeecat at 5:00 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

"Former Trump"
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:01 PM on July 14

After thinking about this a bit, I find that I'm strangely indifferent to this event. It surprises me, but it feels like "more weird Trump stuff" and rolls off. You'd think an assassination attempt would register, but I think I've become jaded towards all matters related to Trump.
posted by SPrintF at 5:03 PM on July 14 [42 favorites]

SprintF you are describing a classic response to trauma, which makes sense given the past several years.
posted by terrierhead at 5:07 PM on July 14 [23 favorites]

When it sounded like he said “we solve these problems at the battle box” I was like, “So we’re switching up the format for the second debate?”
posted by snofoam at 5:08 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

Well, I'll see you guys at the battle box. God bless America, and God bless our troops.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:08 PM on July 14 [18 favorites]

Of course The Trump Show would have an episode with his ear getting clipped in a shooting attempt
posted by torokunai at 5:11 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

The Betoota Advocate, Australia's version of The Onion, are pulling no punches:

England Chokes As Badly As The Pennsylvanian Gunman
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:14 PM on July 14 [8 favorites]

I think the way that lots of Americans seem pretty "eh" about this might mean I'm not alone.

It's anecdotal, but of all the elections I've lived through, this is the most "it's about policy, not personality" one I've seen, going by the way people I know talk about it.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:18 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I was watching someone’s opinion on TikTok that this will end up blowing over relatively quickly because there isn’t much sensational beyond the incident itself. Trump wasn’t badly injured. The shooter is dead so there won’t be a lengthy trial. The shooter was yet another white male conservative leaning “lone wolf”, and doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of social media presence that we’ve seen so far. Trump will act like himself, which won’t be anything new, and there isn’t much about the shooter for the right wing to say.

My own gut feeling opinion is that this won’t really work to win Trump much sympathy because of how weird looking his showboating was. While it probably was real enough, the fist pumping looked so picture perfect that it has that kayfabe weirdness that Trump vomits all around himself, and I doubt many people will be swayed by it.
posted by Fleebnork at 5:22 PM on July 14 [24 favorites]

I thought it was a good Presidential message overall, especially the (extensive) list of violent acts that have so far not been condemned by TFG.
posted by mazola at 5:28 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

I feel like it is weird how this doesn’t seem to be as big a deal as maybe it should be. Like, Reagan was injured more severely, but in some ways they were equally close to death if the trajectory of the bullet had been slightly different. I think the kind of close call that doesn’t involve a severe injury is just less notable (and it was clear within minutes that he was not seriously injured) for whatever reasons. Also, just the whole ridiculous nature of the last eight years kinda makes this feel like just one more thing, when it wouldn’t if it happened ten years ago.
posted by snofoam at 5:29 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Apparently Corey Comperatore, the 'hero' who died shielding his family yesterday, had his social media accounts full of calls for violence against his political enemies.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:41 PM on July 14 [47 favorites]

What kind of world have we built where nobody is surprised at the attempted murder of a high-profile politician and the actual murder of a bystander?

Maybe it's a generational thing. I'm GenX and vividly remember Reagan getting shot. I was raised on stories and films of the 1960s assassinations. For Boomers those killings are often traumatic.

If you're born after Reagan, then you didn't experience high profile American politicians catching bullets?
posted by doctornemo at 5:44 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

On August 9, 1969, I was sitting in the shallow end of my sister-in-law's swimming pool in Beverly Hills when she received a telephone call from a friend who had just heard about the murders at Sharon Tate Polanski's house on Cielo Drive. The phone range many times during the next hour. These early reports were garbled and contradictory. One caller would say hoods, the next would say chains. There were twenty dead, no, twelve, ten, eighteen. Black masses were imagined, and bad trips blamed. I remember all of the day's misinformation very clearly, and I also remember this, and wish I did not: I remember that no one was surprised.

— Joan Didion, “The White Album”
posted by the charms of plurality at 5:46 PM on July 14 [22 favorites]

Apparently Corey Comperatore, the 'hero' who died shielding his family yesterday, had his social media accounts full of calls for violence against his political enemies.

People can hold objectively terrible opinions and still be heroes-without-the-scare-quotes.
posted by multics at 5:48 PM on July 14 [9 favorites]

Regardless of his politics, the real question is whether he acted alone. If he acted alone, it kind of doesn't matter if he was a Biden stan, a guy with a crush on Melania, a guy who thought Trump wasn't fascist enough, or what. What difference does it make?

It makes a difference because this assassination attempt is going to be spun to hell and back in a tight election against a fascist authoritarian and if the shooter is a lefty that's going to be much worse for the fate of the world than if he's a right-wing gun nut who found out Trump was buddies with Epstein and wanted to take out the world's most notorious pedophile.
posted by Pater Aletheias at 5:50 PM on July 14 [14 favorites]

This is kind of what keeps jumping to the forefront of my mind - I understand how concerned people are about the political implications and they concern me too, but the big flashing red light for me is that this guy just demonstrated for every eye to see that pulling off an assassination of someone protected by the Secret Service is achievable by Just Some Guy. Maybe that's always been true, I understand that it's a difficult job even with the resources they have. But now every lunatic in America knows it's true. I've deeply worried about copycat attempts - targeting Trump again, or Biden, or even Obama.

I'm frankly fascinated by this particular Secret Service failure. They failed to control access to one of the few vantage points within shooting range of the stage and crowd.

Unless the guy had some kind of awesome camouflaged hide that he set up in advance the failure here is just staggering. There should have been Secret Service or local police both securing that building and on top of that building!

This failure is egregious I find myself wondering if Trump somehow overruled normal procedures.
posted by srboisvert at 5:53 PM on July 14 [12 favorites]

Robert Evans of Behind the Bastards spoke with someone who works in the building used by the shooter.

Regardless of his politics, I can see Corey Comperatore's name being invoked by the right or even Trump himself ala Ashli Babbitt post J6 if it isn't already happening.
posted by LostInUbe at 5:57 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

People can hold objectively terrible opinions and still be heroes-without-the-scare-quotes.

To *you.* Please stop trying to colonize people's words for the love of God.
posted by CPAnarchist at 5:58 PM on July 14 [16 favorites]

Imakes a difference because this assassination attempt is going to be spun to hell and back in a tight election against a fascist authoritarian and if the shooter is a lefty that's going to be much worse for the fate of the world than if he's a right-wing gun nut who found out Trump was buddies with Epstein and wanted to take out the world's most notorious pedophile.

It seems unlikely we will learn anything that coherent. I think if we were going to find a manifesto we would have found it by now.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 5:59 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

Gabbie Giffords and the Congressional softball shootings are not Gen X and earlier experiences.

And other mass shootings have been political if not targeting politicians.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:08 PM on July 14 [5 favorites]

Yeah, the shooter is dead and all we know so far is they gave $25 to a pro-Democrat organization when they were 18, then registered as a Republican in 2022. Unless he had a social media account with political stuff there's probably not going to be anything but a "I dunno" as far as his politics go.

But none of that matters.

Trump and the Right will be saying he was a leftist, a horrible violent liberal Democrat communist leftist who was consumed by Trump Derangement Syndrome and acted on behalf of the Biden Crime Family to try to silence the only person in America who cares about the forgotten man! Or something along those lines.
posted by sotonohito at 6:09 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

so why are you pre-amplifying their message for them?
posted by torokunai at 6:11 PM on July 14 [25 favorites]

Yeah, the shooter is dead and all we know so far is they gave $25 to a pro-Democrat organization.
I thought it was $15.
posted by NotLost at 6:15 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

What kind of world have we built where nobody is surprised at the attempted murder of a high-profile politician

I'm only surprised it took this long.
posted by Miko at 6:19 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

I was watching someone’s opinion on TikTok that this will end up blowing over relatively quickly because there isn’t much sensational beyond the incident itself.

Well, not yet. The repercussions of historical events are rarely evident within 24hrs of their occurrence. We don't have to look that far back in time for an example of this. In between the 2020 election and January 6th there was about two months. And sure, some people were warning that having a president undermining election results could lead to bad things, and experts who track online extremism were ringing alarm bells, but despite that, most people were shocked by Jan 6th.

And not to be all doom and gloom, but we live in a nation filled with guns and right-wing militias. There is also a lot of Christian-nationalist prophecy about Trump's ascendance in 2024, that cannot be stopped - that he didn't die yesterday is being heralded as an act of God. We have a big election coming up, not only for president but lots of down-ballot races. Election officials were already facing death threats and conspiracy theories. If I was into betting, I'd wager there will be another shooting of a politician or civil servant before this election cycle has finished.
posted by coffeecat at 6:21 PM on July 14 [8 favorites]

I thought he was seventeen. Which might make it an illegal contribution, but that’s neither here nor there.
posted by box at 6:22 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Nothing good can come of this-- recently from the Bulwark. Horror at the assassination attempt, in favor of gun control. Concerned about the challenge of talking about what a hazard Trump is without inflaming the country further.

Nothing from the Lincoln Project yet. They're the people who make the political ads.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 6:22 PM on July 14

It appears that the $25 dollars given to act blue was a different Thomas Crooks, a 69 year old retired person in Philadelphia.
posted by interogative mood at 6:25 PM on July 14 [13 favorites]

People can hold objectively terrible opinions and still be heroes-without-the-scare-quotes.

To *you.* Please stop trying to colonize people's words for the love of God.

Y’all realize that this whole derail is explicitly about colonizing a grieving widow’s words, right??:

I asked Corey’s wife if it would be okay for me to share that we spoke. She said ‘yes.’ She also asked that I share with all of you that Corey died a hero," Shapiro added.

Is shouting down this stranger who just lost her spouse really where you think you should be directing your outrage? I’m fully on team-I-wouldn’t-have-been-too-bothered-by-a-better-shot in this whole situation, but “the bystanders deserved it” is a bridge too far.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 6:28 PM on July 14 [21 favorites]

A few months ago, Trump gave a speech in my state 36 hours after a school shooting and delivered some healing words.

I shall now repeat his soothing oration and fix us all.

“It’s just horrible – so surprising to see it here. But we have to get over it. We have to move forward.”
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 6:31 PM on July 14 [52 favorites]

>but “the bystanders deserved it” is a bridge too far.

Trump's hate rallies in 2020 sure killed more of his supporters – and that would be true even if the shooter had a bump stock yesterday.
posted by torokunai at 6:32 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

So, now I'm going to be extra-careful before I respond to anything --

adrienneleigh: Apparently Corey Comperatore, the 'hero' who died shielding his family yesterday, had his social media accounts full of calls for violence against his political enemies.

Can you link to a source for this?

interogative mood: It appears that the $25 dollars given to act blue was a different Thomas Crooks, a 69 year old retired person in Philadelphia.

Can you link to a source for this?
posted by tzikeh at 6:36 PM on July 14 [12 favorites]

If bystanders are fair game, we’re fully into civil war territory. We can either go there or not go there; there isn’t going to be any middle ground.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 6:36 PM on July 14 [11 favorites]

It appears that the $25 dollars given to act blue was a different Thomas Crooks, a 69 year old retired person in Philadelphia.

This is, unfortunately, incorrect.

You can see the donation receipt yourself. The address matches the address on file for a twenty-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks registered to vote in Pennsylvannia (I can't link to the registration page, but I included instructions for finding it yourself above).

I don't purport to know why he donated to ActBlue, but interviews with former classmates seem to suggest he held conservative views. Is it horrible I find that relieving?
posted by halfling at 6:38 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

David Fucking Frum is spitting truth. The world has gone mad.
posted by interogative mood at 6:38 PM on July 14 [28 favorites]

I've got an idea.
posted by torokunai at 6:40 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

So, ahem, as a Historian, late to this thread, but here's an interesting argument against political violence:

TL, DR: Don't assassinate people. You never truly know what the political outcome is going to be.

Assassination, historically, is a crapshoot. In some instances (Abraham Lincoln), the assassination has consequences more or less in alignment with the assassin's agenda (Andrew Johnson granting amnesty to the rebels and halting reconstruction for four years, giving the Southern Oligarch breathing room. In some instances, the assassination doesn't really alter the political machine from continuing their agenda. And in some instances (Sergei Kirov, the attempted assassination of Vladimir Lenin) the assassination becomes the basis for backlash and retaliation.

A somewhat longer and cursory analysis, going with win, status quo, and backfire, looking purely at the ostensible or known agendas of the assassins:

Julius Caesar: Backfire- the second triumvirate initiates a civil war culminating in the establishment of the Julio-Claudian dynasty.

1806- Jean Jacques Dessalines- backfire, leading to more French imperial occupation, debt, decades of civil war for Haiti.

1831- Vincente Guerrero- success. Rural caudillos prevent a strong Federal Mexican government.

1865- Abraham Lincoln- Success- Andrew Johnson is highly effective in halting Reconstruction for his term, giving vital time for Southerners to re-establish their oligarchic systems of control.

James Garfield- Backfire- Charles Arthur motivated to implement the Civil Service Act, further changing government jobs from patronage to quasi-meritocracy.

1901 William McKinley- minor success? Theodore Roosevelt is a trust-buster and attempts to reconcile labor and business interests, but it's not out of any sympathy to anarchists.

1913- Francisco Madero- backfire. Sets of the Mexican civil war.

1920- Venustiano Carranza- success- Obregon takes power

1928- Alvaro Obregon- backfire. New government of Mexico pursues more secularization and persecution of the Catholic church.

1948- Jorge Gaitlan Ayala- arguably the ultimate backfire- started La Violencia, the roiling civil War which continues to scar Colombia to this very day.

1961- Rafael Trujillo- backfire? Four years of strife and civil war culminating in US military intervention

Jack Kennedy- Backfire, assuming Oswald's communism (dubious)- LBJ starts the Vietnam War, continued confrontation with the Soviet Bloc

Pierre LaPorte- 1970- Backfire- the October Crisis gives Pierre Trudeau the basis to declare military emergency and crack down on the FLQ

1983- Maurice Bishop- provided the pretext for the USA to invade Grenada and overthrow the People's party completely.

2021- Jovenal Moise- leads to collapse of Haitian government into anarchical state
posted by LeRoienJaune at 6:47 PM on July 14 [55 favorites]

A monster who recognized my husband as an inhuman political machine...

From the American Heritage Dictionary:

recognize
To know to be something that has been perceived before.
To know or identify from past experience or knowledge.
To perceive or show acceptance of the validity or reality of.

his laughter, ingenuity, love of music, and inspiration.

Oh, fuck off.

I'm a very good Quaker. A weighty, as we say, Quaker, well-respected and much-loved. But I sometimes think that if you've never been tempted by the molotov cocktail, you're not paying attention.
posted by Well I never

This.

Yes, and the bigger flashinger light for everybody should be that when you let just about any doofus buy and own guns, then you deliberately set out to make people edgy, anxious and angry as part of your election strategy, it doesn't always end well.
posted by Artful Codger

Apparently Corey Comperatore, the 'hero' who died shielding his family yesterday, had his social media accounts full of calls for violence against his political enemies.
posted by adrienneleigh

History is full of idiots who think they can whip up the irrational violence monster, in the delusion that they will always be able to control it and make sure it attacks only their enemies (real or perceived), and never turns back on them.

But that is not how irrational violence works. Once that monster is unleashed all bets are off the table. Everybody is at risk.

Actually it is the responsibility of the Biden administration and Biden campaign
posted by windbox

No, it is ultimately the responsibility of voters. The USA is – for now, at least – still a democracy. If voters do not own it, and the responsibility to use it wisely, then who does?

It's anecdotal, but of all the elections I've lived through, this is the most "it's about policy, not personality" one I've seen, going by the way people I know talk about it.
posted by AdamCSnider

Might be the silver lining in the political shit-cloud hanging over the USA of late: a renewed focus back onto policy and practical achievements, and away from personality and performance.
posted by Pouteria at 6:49 PM on July 14 [15 favorites]

Apparently Corey Comperatore, the 'hero' who died shielding his family yesterday, had his social media accounts full of calls for violence against his political enemies.

Can you link to a source for this?

here you go (take a look at the replies)
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 6:50 PM on July 14 [9 favorites]

His Facebook page is also public and has some really gross stuff on it (along with, it should be said, a fair bit of perfectly innocuous stuff).
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:57 PM on July 14 [6 favorites]

"It appears that the $25 dollars given to act blue was a different Thomas Crooks, a 69 year old retired person in Philadelphia."

This is, unfortunately, incorrect.

You can see the donation receipt yourself. The address matches the address on file for a twenty-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks registered to vote in Pennsylvannia (I can't link to the registration page, but I included instructions for finding it yourself above).

The link given by halflink shows $15, not $25. I expect that the younger Thomas Crooks gave $15, and that the older Thomas Crooks gave $25.
posted by NotLost at 6:58 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

His Facebook page is also public and has some really gross stuff on it (along with, it should be said, a fair bit of perfectly innocuous stuff).

Accounts nuked, I hope you got some screenshots.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 6:58 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I mean, going to a Trump rally isn't something that should be a capital offense, obviously! I'm sorry for his family. But i don't feel the need to pretend that anyone who voluntarily and enthusiastically attended Trump rallies was some kind of hero in any larger sense.
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:58 PM on July 14 [23 favorites]

My take has settled into "same shit, different day." But then again Squeaky Fromme and Sara Jane Moore were just ordinary grownup news to me. Trump and the MAGAts have already been running at surreal levels of hysteric victimhood since forever, so where's left for them to go?

What's broiling in TFG's headswamp right now? Does he now believe he's bulletproof? Did it sink in that he was almost killed? Is he in denial? Is he steely and defiant? Is he really, really scared?

And at the same time I resent having to (still!) think about him at all. He should be rotting in prison and completely forgotten.
posted by whuppy at 6:59 PM on July 14 [17 favorites]

His Facebook page is locked (at least, to me), and his Twitter has like, five posts, none of them calling for violence (again, to me -- no idea if you all can see more).

I hope people have been downloading and saving his social media if it is indeed full of calls to violence, as that will likely be marginally useful to have at some point in the near future.

And on edit I see it's already gone. Not surprised in the least that Zuck took it down while re-instating Trump's posting access. Wonder if the victim's posts are archived anywhere.
posted by tzikeh at 7:00 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

anyone who voluntarily and enthusiastically attended Trump rallies

And some, I assume, are good people.
posted by phunniemee at 7:00 PM on July 14 [19 favorites]

His Facebook page is locked (at least, to me), and his Twitter has like, five posts, none of them calling for violence (again, to me -- no idea if you all can see more).

Yeah, that’s why I suggested anyone go to the page specifically check the replies. He was a chatty guy, very free with his opinions.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 7:02 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

Here are some examples of Corey’s discourse for anyone that can’t get to his Twitter posts:

Post: “Trump Vows That If Elected He Will Legalize Running Over Bicyclists”
Corey replies: “Deal!”

Post: “Who is worse… KJP or Jen Psaki?” (press secretaries, one of whom happens to be Black)
Corey replies: “the DEI plant”

Post: “Lindsey Graham is happy to send your kids and grandkids to war, because he doesn't have any.”
Corey replies: “Because his partners have no ovaries.”
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 7:09 PM on July 14 [12 favorites]

What does happen to narcissistic personality when confronted with near death… specifically violence. I’m sure there are studies and case files of people.
posted by OnTheLastCastle at 7:09 PM on July 14 [8 favorites]

Jack Kennedy- Backfire, assuming Oswald's communism (dubious)

The most plausible explanation of Oswald's motive I've seen was that he was doing it because he was made aware of the CIA's attempts on Castro while visiting Mexico City (he attended a party where staffers from the Cuban embassy were also in attendance), and thought that if he took out JFK Fidel would have to let him into Cuba. He'd already given up on the USSR and thought the "real revolution", whatever that may have meant to him, was to be found in Cuba.
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 7:13 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

Here are some examples of

It looks like he was an asshole on social media. It looks like he died heroically, saving his family.

Sounds like a human being to me.
posted by philip-random at 7:20 PM on July 14 [32 favorites]

What does happen to narcissistic personality when confronted with near death… specifically violence.

Interesting to remember his close call with Covid, and his response to that non-violent non-intentional event, and see how he responds to this intentional and very personally targeted violence.
posted by Pouteria at 7:21 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

If you're not both concerned and world-wearily unsurprised to see the democrats read this as...a reason to stop campaigning for president for a week, I'm not really sure what to tell you.

Dude, didn't Obama pause his campaign in 2012 fpr a few days of Hurricane Sandy? Didn't seem to hurt him.

Stopping campaigning for a week isn't the sign of weakness you are implying it is, it is sometimes a respectful acknowledgement that "okay, yo, some serious shit went down and to keep campaigning while it's being sorted out would be fucking tacky".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:33 PM on July 14 [19 favorites]

I wonder how one arrives at "$15" as a donation amount
posted by Kwine at 7:46 PM on July 14

less bickering, more jokes please
posted by Jacqueline at 7:47 PM on July 14 [11 favorites]

less bickering, more jokes please

Umm..someone is doing an AR15 giveaway at the RNC?
posted by LostInUbe at 7:51 PM on July 14 [12 favorites]

Here's one: that dude's aim.
posted by Krazor at 7:52 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

Seems like we've run out of things to talk about. This was fun.
posted by constraint at 7:54 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

I wonder how one arrives at "$15" as a donation amount

It’s a pretty common entry level suggested donation amount. High enough that you cover the cost of processing the donation, low enough that it feels affordable.
posted by anastasiav at 7:57 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

I have an idea, let's relitigate the 2016 primaries! (I keed, I keed)
posted by rikschell at 8:01 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

The link given by halflink shows $15, not $25. I expect that the younger Thomas Crooks gave $15, and that the older Thomas Crooks gave $25.

Who gave what and how much is missing the point. The dollar amount does not matter, when we are dealing with Nazis for whom the truth or verity of reality is now decided by those with the will to raise their fist for the cameras.

We are dealing with a mainstream media that will repost that photograph, either without considering the consequences, or they know what the consequences of posting Fascist imagery are and accept the outcome as given.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:03 PM on July 14 [2 favorites]

I have a lot of thoughts about “political violence” in this moment, but imma just link to this ever more relevant song by John K Samson. Good for grieving and hoping and wrestling with feelings of anger and thoughts of violence

Fantasy Baseball at the End of the World

I manage my fantasy baseball team better
Than I manage my anger these days
And I'd trade my best pitcher
For a draft-pick and a picture
Of the president writhing in pain

It's a weird thing to wish for
But I can't stop wishing
Refreshing the browser, someday

If I live long enough
And the world doesn't end
My wish will come true, in a way

And he'll die like we all die
In pain or asleep
And we'll still have our fantasy baseball
And the next fascist fucker in line for the job
Of demolishing hope for us all

So I'm putting in love now
I'm putting in faith
Putting fear on a long-term IL

I'm going outside
I'm going to help organize
Something better
Something beautiful
posted by wemayfreeze at 8:07 PM on July 14 [11 favorites]

I don't think there's much else to say. I think that another candidate, had this befallen them, might grapple with the gravity of it and emerge a greater presence, both stronger and more compassionate. Unfortunately, Donald Trump is a moron.

So, he'll put his fist picture on shirts, because merch is where his mind goes: How can we make money off this? And it just becomes another con. That's okay, though, because a better person might be transformed by this in ways that would make his candidacy unstoppable. Trump is not that person. Rise or fall, he will remain exactly what he is. A dumb piece of crap.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 8:09 PM on July 14 [22 favorites]

I wonder how one arrives at "$15" as a donation amount
posted by Kwine at 10:46 PM on 7/14
I dunno; being poor? I’ve definitely donated $15 here or there when I wanted to contribute but couldn’t contribute much. I think it’s really easy to over-analyse at a time like this.
posted by UltraMorgnus at 8:09 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

Dude, didn't Obama pause his campaign in 2012 fpr a few days of Hurricane Sandy? Didn't seem to hurt him.

To be fair, it did seem to sink McCain in 2008.
posted by hoyland at 8:15 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

I know I already posted this, but since the donation has come up again, Ryan Grim has reported on why this is a bit of a red herring.

To quote the key part:

In short, it’s one of those spammy PACs that carpet bombs your inbox, delivering emails with splashy colors and wild fonts and using every trick in the book to convince people to give small amounts of money.

Crooks’s donation, the PAC told Drop Site in a statement, “came in response to an email about tuning into the inauguration.” In other words, the mere fact of his having given to this PAC on this day, based on that kind of an email, tells us very little about his politics.

Anyway, in the article he presents example emails - they are the sort that encourage you to take some survey or answer a poll, and then they ask for money. I know I've gotten this sort of spam.
posted by coffeecat at 8:22 PM on July 14 [3 favorites]

And other mass shootings have been political if not targeting politicians.

I think this is the reason most people seem to be shrugging this off—we, as a nation and a people, have become totally and completely inured to mass shootings. Who can get worked up by this? So someone took a shot at a former president and someone died. How is that quantitatively different than the last 25 years?
posted by rhymedirective at 8:27 PM on July 14 [32 favorites]

Stopping campaigning for a week isn't the sign of weakness you are implying it is

Plus getting to play real life president with serious and competent(-enough) national TV addresses remarking on a situation a chunk of the general public has genuine interest in does have campaign value.
posted by nobody at 8:44 PM on July 14 [14 favorites]

I have a feeling that if the FBI goes through Crooks' phone and finds a motive, we might not hear about it. Like if he was absorbing a lot of Trump-Epstein stuff (and there's been a lot of it online in the past few weeks), they'll keep it quiet. Imagine the sensation if that got out.
posted by hydrophonic at 8:46 PM on July 14 [7 favorites]

Nah, a missing motive gives further fuel to conspiracy, and they don't want that. But I would imagine they want to be very sure before they announce a motive.
posted by coffeecat at 9:03 PM on July 14 [4 favorites]

has a photograph of trump been published since the shooting? the trump jet arrived in milwaukee today but there are no shots of him leaving the plane and nothing of him leaving his motorcade to enter the Pfister downtown. Maybe they have an underground garage, i'm not sure, but they must be very tightly controlling access. I know he got shot, but it must not be that bad if he's travelling. what gives here?
posted by dis_integration at 9:19 PM on July 14 [1 favorite]

There was footage of him coming down the steps of his plane last night, I think in New Jersey.
posted by mph at 9:24 PM on July 14

I’m still not convinced the bullet didn’t whistle straight through his head. In one ear and out the other no danger of hitting anything in between.
posted by mazola at 9:28 PM on July 14 [18 favorites]

20 years old. So around 18 or 19 for the height of the man-o-sphere content. 16 when lockdown started, just in time to have nowhere to drive to. At that age and given the profile we've been given, his 'social media' of interest is probably Discord and similar. So that would be relatively easy to suppress.

Also he was 18 for the Uvalde shooting, 16 for the Rittenhouse shooting. 14, for the Santa Fe, TX school and Tree of Life shootings. 13, Charlottesville and the Congressional baseball shooting. 8, Sandy Hook. Just to name a few. All the talking heads saying that violence has no place in politics (as ahistorical as that is) should consider its place in the rest of our society.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:11 PM on July 14 [45 favorites]

Mod note: A few removed ... in particular some personal attacks. Folks, please don't do this. In all intense breaking news posts there come informational lulls, and some people then turn to their fellow members as targets to keep going, to keep the outrage pounding, etc. Please don't. If there isn't something in updates for you to talk about, maybe just take a break from the thread. And, just generally, if you find a great deal of your contribution is scolding or policing others, please pull back and concentrate on discussing the news, not other people in the thread. Guidelines: Allow others to express themselves; Speak for yourself, not others; Be considerate and respectful.
posted by taz (staff) at 12:12 AM on July 15 [39 favorites]

Folks are overthinking the donation. Dude was a 17-y-o junior in high school with no clear political identity. Clearly some classmate he took a shine to was fund raising and he forked over some cash. My bet is it didn’t get him laid.
posted by simra at 12:14 AM on July 15 [9 favorites]

16 when lockdown started, just in time to have nowhere to drive to

Only 40% of teenagers get their licenses at 16, these days. And the death of "third places" in the USA has meant that those who can drive mostly don't have much of anywhere to drive to, anyway (and probably can't afford to, with gasoline at 3 or 4 dollars a gallon, which is an increase well above the rate of inflation from when I was a teenager in the '90's and it was around $1/gal).
posted by Pseudonymous Cognomen at 12:48 AM on July 15 [6 favorites]

Not sure of these quotes are confirmed, but have seen quotes of ex-classmates of the shooter saying he tried to get on the high school rifle club but was rejected for poor aim..

Am I the only one thinking, "WTF, why do high schools have shooting clubs?!"

I had the same reaction a few weeks ago when some state level GOP officials in MI tried to pass a bill to have the AR-15 made the official state firearm. First thought- nice troll. Second though, wait- state firearms are a thing? Turns out yes- over the past couple decades, there are about 10 now, seems the NRA may be helping promote these.

Is a bit of an aside, but it's kind of shocking to me as a US expat for over 15yrs, seeing from the sidelines how post-Columbine US has become a seemingly much more gun-obsessed nation than I remember.
posted by p3t3 at 3:34 AM on July 15 [11 favorites]

These violent delights have violent ends.
posted by JohnFromGR at 3:38 AM on July 15 [15 favorites]

Nancy Lebovitz: “We’re pointing at the guy crawling up the roof,” the witness, identified only as Greg, told the BBC of the surreal moment. “We could clearly see him with a rifle.”

This claims to be video of a bunch of people pointing at the guy crawling along the roof to get into position. People in the comments timed it to the speech and said that it was 2 minutes before the shooting.
posted by clawsoon at 3:38 AM on July 15 [6 favorites]

Is a bit of an aside, but it's kind of shocking to me as a US expat for over 15yrs, seeing from the sidelines how post-Columbine US has become a seemingly much more gun-obsessed nation than I remember.

Have spent a good chunk of the last decade as an expat and I know what you mean. Currently debating if we should move back to the US (aging parents, plus some career reasons) and...yeah.
posted by photo guy at 3:42 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

So far the most interesting piece quoting the shooter's classmates is the Philly Inquirer article halfling linked above (archive if you use adblockers). It quotes someone who pushes back on the "constantly bullied loner" stuff that quickly hit TV news, and includes somewhat contradictory stuff like this:

“He was very kind,” Sigafoos said Sunday, by phone. “He was a nerdy kid, but I don’t think he was as harshly bullied as some people are saying. He never wore trench coats or anything of the sort to school.”

...Sigafoos did not recall Crooks making political overtures in class, but rather as someone interested in how government works, and “not trying to insert his own beliefs into it.”

Another former classmate did not share this view. Max R. Smith recalled taking an American history course with Crooks as a sophomore. He did recall Crooks making political statements — but they shed no light on his actions Saturday.

“He definitely was conservative,” he said. “It makes me wonder why he would carry out an assassination attempt on the conservative candidate.”

Smith recalled a mock debate in which their history professor posed government policy questions and asked students to stand on one side of the classroom or the other to signal their support or opposition for a given proposal.

“The majority of the class were on the liberal side, but Tom, no matter what, always stood his ground on the conservative side,” Smith said. “That’s still the picture I have of him. Just standing alone on one side while the rest of the class was on the other.”
posted by mediareport at 3:47 AM on July 15 [19 favorites]

This claims to be video of a bunch of people pointing at the guy crawling along the roof to get into position

This BBC interview (which was linked above and features the blind reporter folks mentioned) is the best I've seen so far with a rally attendee who saw the gunman on the roof and was one of the folks trying to get the police and Secret Service to do something. There's a longer version out there as well but I can't find it right now.

Edit to add: Imagine how horrifying those moments must have been for those people, my god.
posted by mediareport at 3:57 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

I feel like in a saner universe, when a kid gets a rifle and takes a shot at a public figure, the question would immediately turn to "how did he get the gun", and we would be talking about gun control.

In our universe, Republicans will immediately talk about dems "politicizing the tragedy", but I think this deflection means republicans know they are weak on this issue, so the dems should press them on it. IIRC messaging about "common sense gun laws that respect the rights of responsible gun owners" polls well (which is why Rs don't want to talk about it), so this seems like a great angle to take. Parents don't want their kids to get shot up in school, and Trump is incredibly weak on this. I'd love to see the dems apply some pressure here.
posted by serif at 4:37 AM on July 15 [22 favorites]

Multiple things are true about Trump's shooting (Aaron Rupar, Public Notice)
How not to respond to a political assassination attempt (Judd Legum, Popular Information)
posted by box at 4:43 AM on July 15 [6 favorites]

> "WTF, why do high schools have shooting clubs?!"

Because target sports are challenging and fun. If Americans are going to have guns -- and, for now, we are -- things like shooting clubs and youth gun-safety programs are good.
posted by The corpse in the library at 5:04 AM on July 15 [26 favorites]

In public schools, the NRA gets a boost from Junior ROTC (NYT, 2022)
posted by box at 5:16 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

The Daily, a podcast of the New York Times, has an interview with Douglas Mills, who took that iconic photograph of raised fist Trump.

Mills is long time veteran photographer, yet of course he had no idea what he had captured until he looked at the images. He just went on instinct.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 5:20 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

"WTF, why do high schools have shooting clubs?!"

Because Jesus loves winners.
posted by phunniemee at 5:21 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

In the NYTimes this morning::

Former President Donald J. Trump, in his first interviews since surviving an assassination attempt, said he had thrown out the speech that he planned to deliver at the Republican National Convention this week and was drafting one that was more unifying.

“I want to try to unite our country, but I don’t know if that’s possible,” he told The New York Post on Sunday in an interview on his private plane as he traveled to Milwaukee for the convention. “People are very divided.”

“I had all prepared an extremely tough speech, really good, all about the corrupt, horrible administration,” he said. “But I threw it away.”

...

He made similar comments to The Washington Examiner, which reported that Mr. Trump was wearing a gauze bandage over his ear. “I think it would be very bad if I got up and started going wild about how horrible everybody is, and how corrupt and crooked, even if it’s true,” he said.

I'll believe it when I see/hear it, I guess. I'm sure his political advisors are telling him this is the smart way to play it, but we all know how good he is at sticking to the script.
posted by coffeecat at 5:52 AM on July 15 [21 favorites]

Dan Gillmor:

It will be pathetic, but unsurprising, if political journalists and editorial writers eagerly buy into the notion that Trump has decided to become a gruff but cuddly national grandfather who brings us together.

The press has routinely done stenography to amplify obvious cons (e.g. the "New Nixon", "compassionate conservatism" and the like).

Look at the record -- just once, journalists -- before you do it again and, this time, grease the path to dictatorship.

posted by audi alteram partem at 5:58 AM on July 15 [24 favorites]

TFG wants to have it both ways (as usual): I want to be a unifier, so I won’t say those terrible tough things, even though they are true.

In any case, if he trods this path it won’t be for long. His movement is fueled by fear, outrage, etc. He’ll have to pivot back to regain the flow (and blame the other side for forcing him to.)
posted by notyou at 5:59 AM on July 15 [9 favorites]

Only 40% of teenagers get their licenses at 16, these days. And the death of "third places" in the USA has meant that those who can drive mostly don't have much of anywhere to drive to, anyway (and probably can't afford to, with gasoline at 3 or 4 dollars a gallon, which is an increase well above the rate of inflation from when I was a teenager in the '90's and it was around $1/gal).

The other 60% get rides from the ones who do. This isn't an urbanism thread, but I've actually read (and still have my copy of) Soja's Thirdspace (subtitled, Journeys to Los Angeles and Other Real-and-Imagined Places) and grew up in that same LA of Davis' City of Quartz. . I read Thirdspace before the shooter was born, for anthro coursework. The complaint goes back to the 80s/90s at least. The malls of the 90s were not considered good or healthy 'thirdspaces.'

Discussion of Durkheim's work on anomie and suicide would be more useful, but can wait.
posted by snuffleupagus at 6:08 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

"I had all prepared an extremely tough speech, really good, all about the corrupt, horrible administration,” he said. “But I threw it away.”
...
“I think it would be very bad if I got up and started going wild about how horrible everybody is, and how corrupt and crooked, even if it’s true,” he said.

This is the rhetorical technique of apophasis, or telling the audience what you won't be telling them. A favorite for parliamentary take-downs. The fact that he's now gone ahead and said it, twice, will likely be forgotten by the time reporters are falling all over themselves to call him a "statesman" for reigning it in later.
posted by mabelstreet at 7:01 AM on July 15 [27 favorites]

Classified documents case against Trump has been dismissed (NYT)

Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that the entire case should be thrown out because the appointment of the special counsel who brought the case, Jack Smith, had violated the Constitution. Her decision is sure to be appealed.
posted by fortitude25 at 7:10 AM on July 15 [10 favorites]

Jesus Christ.
posted by Artful Codger at 7:23 AM on July 15 [10 favorites]

Another obvious attempt to kick the can to the other side of the election.
posted by Fleebnork at 7:27 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

We can't have unity with people who want us gone (Oliver Willis)
posted by box at 7:29 AM on July 15 [21 favorites]

Via Reddit: The highest quality full video of the assassination attempt, through the point Trump is ushered into the car.
posted by darkstar at 7:32 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

the appointment of the special counsel who brought the case, Jack Smith, had violated the Constitution. Her decision is sure to be appealed.

Oh, that’s really tame. She should’ve thrown it out because the president is immune.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 7:33 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

Political Violence: Reflections from the 1920s and 1930s [Timothy Snyder]

Some of Donald Trump’s supporters, including one right-radical senator and one right-radical congressman, were quick to blame the Democrats. (This is also, of course, Moscow’s line).

Their reasoning might seem intuitive, and clearly did seem intuitive to many people. If a radical-right politician such as Donald Trump is the victim of an assassination attempt, should we not presume that the perpetrator is on the radical left?

No, we should not.

As always, an interesting historical perspective with relevance to here and now.
posted by mazola at 7:34 AM on July 15 [7 favorites]

The complaint goes back to the 80s/90s at least. The malls of the 90s were not considered good or healthy 'thirdspaces.'

I don't want to derail this thread, but I strongly disagree. There is pretty clear evidence that the number of US teenagers getting licenses has dropped significantly in the last few decades.

I personally know a couple of acquaintance's kids who are late teens/early 20s and definitely fit that mold - it's not that they can't drive due to financial or medical reasons, they simply do not want to and rely on friends/family/SOs to be a free taxi service. And these are kids living in extremely car-dependent suburban areas. I went to high school in the late 90s and the idea would've been totally unimaginable at the time, at least in my boring-ass corner of American suburbia.
posted by photo guy at 7:34 AM on July 15 [9 favorites]

Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that the entire case should be thrown out

There's now a separate FPP for this.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:35 AM on July 15 [9 favorites]

I don't want to derail this thread.

Let's not. I know some kids like that too. I don't see how your point is disagreeing with observation that the 'third places' discussion goes back further, so there's something more going on.
Though what some of that earlier discussion got wrong was the idea that the rise of virtual socialization and spaces would largely improve the situation.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:44 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

Only one candidate knows exactly what it will take to overcome political polarization and division in our country:

As we move forward in Uniting our Nation after the horrific events on Saturday, this dismissal of the Lawless Indictment in Florida should be just the first step, followed quickly by the dismissal of ALL the Witch Hunts — The January 6th Hoax in Washington, D.C., the Manhattan D.A.’s Zombie Case, the New York A.G. Scam, Fake Claims about a woman I never met (a decades old photo in a line with her then husband does not count), and the Georgia “Perfect” Phone Call charges. The Democrat Justice Department coordinated ALL of these Political Attacks, which are an Election Interference conspiracy against Joe Biden’s Political Opponent, ME. Let us come together to END all Weaponization of our Justice System, and Make America Great Again!
posted by mittens at 8:01 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

This tiktok from @danasinspired summarizes my thoughts quite well.
posted by hydra77 at 8:13 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

Well, that's one way to pivot.
posted by box at 8:13 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

The malls of the 90s were not considered good or healthy 'thirdspaces.'

I was a teenager in the 90s and this is not consonant with my experience. If there is data contradicting my impression I would be interested in it.
posted by bq at 8:16 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

People can hold objectively terrible opinions and still be heroes-without-the-scare-quotes.

To *you.* Please stop trying to colonize people's words for the love of God.

I think in a fast moving political thread it’s important to be clear about what people are actually saying rather than assume we are all on the same page, especially if we are saying something particularly extreme or radical.

For example: I think there’s a difference between personal and political heroism; I think someone can demonstrate the former and not the latter. I think this gentleman likely demonstrated personal courage - personal heroism - in diving on his family to shield them from bulllets, and gave his life in doing so. He also may have had terrible political beliefs - or pedestrian ones. It’s unclear, I haven’t seen them, and there’s a wide range from “people I don’t like should be shot” to “leaders who want to send boys to war should be shot instead of the boys they draft.”

I also think it should go without saying that we are all speaking for self here, and cannot speak for anyone else.
posted by corb at 8:28 AM on July 15 [13 favorites]

I would love to see Biden turn this attempted assassination against Trump. "One of your own party's voters tried to kill you with a gun you refused to ban. You are incapable of making America a more civil place."
posted by orange swan at 8:31 AM on July 15 [31 favorites]

mittens - the formatting of your post, without quotes, indentation, italics or other highlighting, makes it look like these are your words.
posted by achrise at 8:33 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

makes it look like these are your words

I would rip off this mittens mask to reveal my true identity, but I'm worried it'd hurt my ear.
posted by mittens at 8:54 AM on July 15 [12 favorites]

mittens is Donald's alt
posted by phunniemee at 8:54 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

corb haș basically said this, but the reason I'm fine with gallows humor about Trump is because Trump is a powerful person who not only has abhorrent views, but has actively encouraged political violence, enacted violent policies, and mocked victims of political violence. I'd assume a guy at a Trump rally has a lot of views I'll strongly agree with, but I think we can hopefully agree that "regular people we disagree with politically deserve violent deaths" is not a slope we want to slide down.
posted by coffeecat at 8:56 AM on July 15 [7 favorites]

I'd ramp up that up to ...

"regular people we disagree with politically deserve violent deaths" is effectively a commitment to war.
posted by philip-random at 8:59 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Except the other side already believes this and espouses it out loud constantly. We are already at war.
posted by rikschell at 9:02 AM on July 15 [16 favorites]

Exactly - and there are enough people in this country (including some in organized militias) itching for a civil war as is.

(Edit - for clarity, I wrote this in response to philip-random)
posted by coffeecat at 9:02 AM on July 15

"Some folks need killing! It’s time for somebody to say it. It’s not a matter of vengeance. It’s not a matter of being mean or spiteful. It’s a matter of necessity!"
posted by box at 9:06 AM on July 15 [8 favorites]

AR-15s do horrific damage to the human body. What would one do to an ear?
posted by kirkaracha at 9:08 AM on July 15

Attack on Trump exploited: "An opportunity to shame dissenters from the MAGA movement into silence" [Salon]

In an attempt to better navigate these maddening events, I recently spoke with a range of experts about the country’s democracy crisis, where we are in the story that is the Age of Trump, and what may happen next with the 2024 election and America’s political life.

A mostly depressing read follows.
posted by mazola at 9:13 AM on July 15 [1 favorite]

Suspected Trump Shooter Remembered By Rifle Team Member As ‘Comically Bad Shot’
posted by kirkaracha at 9:13 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

And graduated to a Tragically Bad Shot.
posted by mazola at 9:16 AM on July 15 [16 favorites]

i don't feel the need to pretend that anyone who voluntarily and enthusiastically attended Trump rallies was some kind of hero in any larger sense.

Have people with this view ever met a volunteer firefighter? Or have a volunteer firefighter in their family or among their friends?

I was a reporter for several years. I have a brother who told me "some news is fake." He casts a side-eye to intellectuals and people with higher education (especially me), although his current wife, daughter, our brother, and I all have varying degrees and numbers of degrees. I myself consider him a "low-information voter." He and his daughter are both rural volunteer firefighters. He has been chief of his squad, and an elected district fire commissioner. There are many, many training courses they must fulfill, on their own time. Recruitment is tough.

Rural/exurban/suburban volunteer firefighters will jump out of a warm bed in the middle of the night and travel over icy roads or in blistering heat wearing full turnout gear to save you from your flaming home or vehicle at great risks to themselves.

They won't turn you down because you have the wrong bumper sticker or yard sign, even though they might not have you over for that reason.

People are compartmentalized, and sometimes one or more of their compartments contain heroism.

May Corey, who shielded his family from gunfire, rest in peace.
posted by jgirl at 9:20 AM on July 15 [45 favorites]

We are already at war.

Absolutely.
posted by jgirl at 9:21 AM on July 15 [1 favorite]

I put TFG's reaction to all this through my TrumpTranslator^TM, and the result was "Let's all unite in making sure I never face any consequences for my many crimes, and make America a great place for me to be in!"
posted by orange swan at 9:23 AM on July 15 [10 favorites]

We are already at war.
...
Absolutely.

I don't want to derail this thread, but can we not do this? To my fellow Americans, I remind you that some Mefites belong to countries that have experienced civil wars within their lifetimes - things are bad in the US right now, but we are not actually at war.
posted by coffeecat at 9:26 AM on July 15 [45 favorites]

We are already at war.
...
Absolutely.

I don't want to derail this thread, but can we not do this? To my fellow Americans, I remind you that some Mefites belong to countries that have experienced civil wars within their lifetimes - things are bad in the US right now, but we are not actually at war.

I made the second comment in question, and I thank you for pointing this out.
posted by jgirl at 9:41 AM on July 15 [9 favorites]

He went on to say that “the radical left” was “apoplectic” because “our side is winning” and said, “And so I come full circle in this response and just want to encourage you with some substance that we are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”

“Right on. Thank you, brother,” the interviewer, former Representative Dave Brat of Virginia, replied.

Mr. Roberts’s remarks were publicized by the liberal media watchdog group Media Matters for America.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/heritage-foundation-2025-policy-america.html
posted by torokunai at 9:46 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

there is an odd parallel from 111 years ago.

Who was a one term President, if I recall correctly.
posted by y2karl at 9:54 AM on July 15

snuffleupagus I'm not commenting any more after this (I live 7+ time zones ahead of the US and do not have time to read this thread) but to be clear I was disagreeing with the comment that kids not wanting to drive is nothing new - the comment you wrote made it sound that way. I don't know, maybe I misread what you said.

I think this is a rather worrying issue for a whole litany of reasons and it is probably worthy of its own FPP. I will leave it at that.
posted by photo guy at 9:55 AM on July 15

things are bad in the US right now, but we are not actually at war.

I think what's going on right now in the USA (mainly it seems by some on the right) is what amounts to a ramping up for war. And I think it's essential that this be pointed out, that those fanning the flames be called out, exposed, embarrassed, reconciled even -- whatever tactics work to turn down the temperature.

But calling their current actions (and their effects) war itself feels dangerously naive, like confusing a gale force wind for a fucking hurricane. I've personally never known real war but I grew up with a father who found himself deep in the worst parts of WW2 as a young man. And whatever he saw and/or did, it scarred him deeply and permanently. And he was on the winning side, hailed a hero, all the rest. But he had no time for that stuff. He'd seen what he'd seen, knew what he knew -- not that he ever found words for it.

Politically, he was always what many here would call a conservative, but he was also resolutely pacifist. If he had a motto in that regard, it would be "peace is more important than victory". Which is something I find myself reminding myself a lot these days. Violence only escalates. If you think (and act) otherwise, I have a hard time feeling you're my ally.
posted by philip-random at 9:59 AM on July 15 [12 favorites]

I understand the urge to de-escalate. I don't want to see blood running in the streets, either. But if we always take a step forwards and they always take a step backwards, where it leads is inevitable. And it's clear who the violence will be done to first. That violence is ongoing. If we keep letting the other side get away with it, it's only going to escalate.
posted by rikschell at 10:00 AM on July 15 [14 favorites]

I would like to not read any more hot takes about how the dead bystander is really an asshole. It’s ghoulish.
posted by bq at 10:07 AM on July 15 [13 favorites]

TL, DR: Don't assassinate people. You never truly know what the political outcome is going to be.

While i love the hell out of this, on reflection I think your list militates for the opposite conclusion you suggest.

Accepting for a moment the (admittedly absurd) conceit of a rational actor weighing assassination among the options for achieving radical change, it seems to me that our would-be change agent looks at your history and goes, "So, you're telling me there's a chance?" Sure, a success rate somewhere in the neighborhood of 25% at best looks like a poor bet, but when compared to ballot box or broadsheet (both of which, in addition to their limited reach and at–best–delayed impact, stand their own chances of backfiring), coming at the king starts to look like a winning play, especially for the lone, disaffected malcontent.

Of course, all this rests on that central conceit; in reality, of course, political change is at best one among many motivations for assassins, and rational analysis of what is an almost canonically-irrational act is a mug's game.

ideally-unnecessary disclaimer, but these days you just don't know: Do not assassinate people. Assassinating people is bad.
posted by multics at 10:08 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

rikschell, I agree that we shouldn't let people engaging in violent acts and/or policies get away with it. But I also think we can do so without adding fuel to the MAGA belief that "the radical left wants to destroy you." That's what could lead us to civil war.
posted by coffeecat at 10:13 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

The Czech Resistance with the logistical help of the British successfully assassinated Heydrich in 1942. Other than the gift of the grenade bombs making his last week on earth a rather painful existence in the hospital, it did not alter or improve the course of the German occupation out to 1945.

The disorder in the streets in Germany in the 20s and early 30s between radical left and radical right didn't profit anybody in the end, either. Similar to Project 2025, the conservative Preußenschlag resulted.

Bloodless and legal like Project 2025, too.

We've got less than 4 months now to close this alternate history off to them.
posted by torokunai at 10:17 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

At a certain point, though, we have to take them at their word when they say "we want you not to exist." For the people who are already experiencing right-wing violence every day, we ARE already at war. For those of us who aren't obvious immigrants, or Black, or trans, or trying to obtain reproductive health care, etc., to pretend that violence can just be smoothed over is disrespectful and only encourages it to continue. I'm not an accelerationist. But there's a LOT that's going on that's unacceptable. And we've been accepting it in order to keep the peace. I don't want to destroy the other side, but I DO want to destroy their IDEAS and policies. I don't see them as inhuman, but I see them as inhumane. They've made it abundantly clear they won't compromise. It seems like there are fewer and fewer paths left to us that are ethically defensible.

I think a lot about Dietrich Bonhoeffer these days.
posted by rikschell at 10:26 AM on July 15 [21 favorites]

"There should be no place for violence in politics." I'd agree, but I don't think Donald Trump would

At first I misread your comment as "I agree, but [...]", so my initial reaction was to point out that when a statement is structured like "x is good / correct etc, , it is safe and even recommended to disregard everything to the left of "but"

However, while typing this comment, I discovered that you set your opinion compass by Trump's presumed ones?
posted by Green-eyed grenade at 10:32 AM on July 15

Back in the 70s, I was a "Great Late Planet Earth" born again Christian. The book talked about the signs of the coming of the antichrist and has maintained a residence in a small part of my head.
Almost jokingly, I've looked for signs that various people were the antichrist. (Note: I don't seriously believe in the antichrist.)
Some of those for Trump are remarkable. For your consideration,

Beyond the statement that he will mesmerize, even the elect:
Trump's grandmother's maiden name was literally "Christ." She died on June 6, 1966. (That was actually an important "antichrist" date for those who focused on these things. It was the birthdate of Damien Thorn, the antichrist in the Omen movies.)
Damien Thorn and Donald Trump have the same initials and the same number of letters in their first and last names.
Gog and Magog sound a lot like GOP and MAGA. From Revelation 20:7-8: Satan shall be loosed out of his prison, and shall go out to deceive the nations which are in the four quarters of the earth, Gog and Magog, to gather them together to battle.
Fundamentalists have traditionally associated Gog with Russia.
Revelation 13:3 says the antichrist will have survived a head wound (alright, it says a fatal head wound, but hey, he just missed having one).
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:34 AM on July 15 [19 favorites]

Trump Media stock is up 33% today.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:48 AM on July 15 [1 favorite]

(I'm so old, I remember when the antichrist was Reagan.)
posted by box at 10:48 AM on July 15 [12 favorites]

The antichrist gets around.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:49 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

I understand that it feels like a war, but if you're not posting to MeFi from a foxhole or a POW camp it's not a real war.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 10:51 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

However, while typing this comment, I discovered that you set your opinion compass by Trump's presumed ones?

I'm like 90% that wasn't an if/then statement, it's just a different (and perfectly cromulent) way to use the English language.
posted by phunniemee at 10:52 AM on July 15 [1 favorite]

Pleased to meet you, hope you guess my name.
posted by torokunai at 10:52 AM on July 15 [7 favorites]

but if you're not posting to MeFi from a foxhole or a POW camp it's not a real war.

it's just sparkling unrest
posted by phunniemee at 10:54 AM on July 15 [38 favorites]

war, kampf, schlag

Frankish and Germanic Roots: The Old French word, in turn, comes from the Frankish word "*werra," which means strife or conflict. This Frankish term is derived from the Proto-Germanic word "*werz-a-," meaning confusion or perplexity.
posted by torokunai at 10:56 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

I love all of you nerds and I'm sorry if I set any of you off. It's an incredibly *something* time to be alive. We're all doing our best, and that never feels like enough.
posted by rikschell at 11:04 AM on July 15 [11 favorites]

"The assassination attempt on Trump has made it a lot harder for Democrats to emphasize how dangerous his policies would be. Instead they’ll spend the next couple of weeks talking about civility and denouncing violence. (And, of course, violence of any type should always be roundly condemned. It’s just a shame the same politicians denouncing political violence right now have no problem raining hell down on kids in Gaza. Violence, it seems, is only condemned when it affects certain people.)"

Did Donald Trump just win the election? via The Guardian

_{Though considering when I made the same point in a comment it was removed, we'll see if the Guardian carries more weight}
posted by iamck at 11:06 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

METAFILTER: it's just sparkling unrest
posted by philip-random at 11:08 AM on July 15 [3 favorites]

Suspected Trump Shooter Remembered By Rifle Team Member As ‘Comically Bad Shot’

Hmm. Could the shooter have been trying to prove these high school rifle team members wrong? I'm not trying to be funny, but "I'll show them by shooting the guy that everyone around here reveres" is the sort of childish response to this kind of thing that motivates people to do stupid stuff.
posted by oneirodynia at 11:16 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

Did Donald Trump just win the election? via The Guardian

No, he fucking didn't.
posted by oneirodynia at 11:17 AM on July 15 [38 favorites]

They tried to unalive 45 - Rita Brent
posted by madamjujujive at 11:18 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

METAFILTER: it's just sparkling unrest

Sometimes I doubt your commitment to Sparkle Motion.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 11:19 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Did Donald Trump just win the election?

Yeah, fuck off. The future ain't written.
posted by philip-random at 11:21 AM on July 15 [16 favorites]

“The Hypocritical ‘Civility’ Response to Trump's Assassination Attempt”[10:30]—Jessie Gender After Dark, 15 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 11:29 AM on July 15 [2 favorites]

I understand that it feels like a war, but if you're not posting to MeFi from a foxhole or a POW camp it's not a real war.

If only we could have gone back in time to give MeFi accounts to Heather Heyer, Paul Pelosi, Gretchen Whitmer, Joyce Fienberg, Richard Gottfried, Rose Mallinger, Jerry Rabinowitz, Cecil and David Rosenthal, Bernice and Sylvan Simon, Daniel Stein, Melvin Wax, Irving Younger, Brian Sicknick, Howard Liebengood, Jeffrey Smith, Gunther Hashida, the nearly 500,000 Americans who died of Covid during Trump's reign, etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:36 AM on July 15 [8 favorites]

Hmm? Could the shooter have been trying to prove these high school rifle team members wrong? I'm not trying to be funny, but "I'll show them by shooting the guy that everyone around here reveres" is the sort of childish response to this kind of thing that motivates people to do stupid stuff.

Arguments have been put forward that Gavrilo Princip assassinated the Archduke Frank Ferdinand in part because he had been rejected as too weak for the army, and wanted to prove he was capable of a bold action against the Austro-Hungarian occupation of Serbia.

As it happens, about 30% of the Serbian population died, not to mention millions of others elsewhere in Europe, as this event precipitated WWI. Princip never accepted responsibility for that outcome.
posted by darkstar at 11:38 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

My best guess is that this was a angry white guy from the suburbs who had an AR-15 and decided to go shoot somebody, and he just happened to have the opportunity to shoot at a former president instead of a bunch of kindergartners, so he took it.

There's a reason I've been listening to Peter Gabriel's Family Snapshot repeatedly this weekend.

I don't really hate you, I don't care what you do
We were made for each other, me and you
I want to be somebody, you were like that too
If you don't get given you learn to take, and I will take you

posted by EmpressCallipygos at 11:48 AM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Doug Burgum, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, the three men on Trump’s shortlist for vice president

A source tells @steinhauserNH1 that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has received a call notifying the senator that he’s NOT Trump’s choice for running mate.

NEWS: Florida Senator Marco Rubio has been informed he will not be Trump's VP, sources say

Extra security outside home of Senator JD Vance
posted by kirkaracha at 11:56 AM on July 15 [1 favorite]

“This New World: The Trump Assassination Attempt and the State of Things,” Jared Yates Sexton, Dispatches From A Collapsing State, 15 July 2024

“One Nation, Under Fist,” Jeff Sharlet, Scenes from a Slow Civil War, 15 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 11:58 AM on July 15 [4 favorites]

Hot take I appreciate from The Reductress.
posted by phunniemee at 12:07 PM on July 15 [5 favorites]

A part of me wonders something:

There's an anecdote I read a few weeks ago (which I promise will soon be relevant). A visiting priest was invited to give a sermon at a church, and spoke about the Beatitudes - a.k.a., the "Sermon on the Mount," in which Jesus says things like "Blessed are the peacemakers" or "Blessed are the meek". As the parishioners were leaving, one stopped to compliment the priest on his sermon, but had the one complaint that it made Jesus look "too woke".

"I was literally quoting from the Bible, and using Jesus' own words," the priest said.

The parishioner just blinked a bit and then asked if maybe it might be time to update the Bible to "make Jesus look stronger and more powerful".

....A part of me wonders: even if Trump does manage to pull off the call for unity he says he will, have we maybe already reached the point where his followers wouldn't buy it and go on to violent action anyway?

I don't think that Trump winning the election is a foregone conclusion. It's only mid-July, and a lot can happen between now and November. But - it's also a very hot summer and tempers are short, and someone's already brought a gun to the party, and I am wondering what exactly might happen elsewhere in the country amongst us all.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:10 PM on July 15 [7 favorites]

There's a reason I've been listening to Peter Gabriel's Family Snapshot yt repeatedly this weekend.

me, too. It's interesting that the song is somewhat based on stuff written by Arthur Bremner, who tried to assassinate George Wallace in 1972. Included on the wiki page is this:

In a widely noted article, journalist Seymour Hersh claimed that secret recordings of Nixon prove that, within hours of the assassination attempt, the president and a top aide dispatched a political operative, E. Howard Hunt, who rushed to Milwaukee with plans to surreptitiously enter Bremer's apartment and plant the campaign literature of Democratic contender George McGovern. According to Hersh, Hunt aborted the operation because the FBI had sealed off Bremer's apartment prior to his arrival.[17][18]

However, a 2007 analysis of the Nixon tapes by the History News Network did not turn up any evidence of the clandestine operation described by Hersh. While the tapes did show that Nixon had instructed presidential aide Charles W. Colson to anonymously spread the false rumor that there was "unmistakable evidence" that Bremer had been a "a supporter of McGovern and Kennedy", there was no apparent trace of Nixon tasking subordinates with entering Bremer's apartment to plant Democratic campaign materials.[19]
posted by philip-random at 12:11 PM on July 15 [3 favorites]

Democrats pull Biden campaign ads after Trump rally shooting

TV attack ads and $50m advertising blitz are suspended as US president pleas to ‘lower the temperature in our politics’
...

Biden cancelled a planned speech on Monday at the Lyndon Johnson library in Austin to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act, while Kamala Harris followed suit by postponing a Tuesday stop in Palm Beach, Florida, where she had been expected to talk about abortion.

Rather than attacking Trump in the coming days, the campaign told journalists that it would focus on Biden’s track record of condemning political violence of all kinds. A scheduled Monday prime-time interview with NBC’s Lester Holt, originally scheduled as part of the Austin visit, will go ahead but will now take place in the White House.
posted by lalochezia at 12:11 PM on July 15 [1 favorite]

Well, it's Vance.
posted by penduluum at 12:13 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

ugh
posted by chavenet at 12:17 PM on July 15 [7 favorites]

Biden cancelled a planned speech on Monday at the Lyndon Johnson library in Austin to mark the 60th anniversary of the Civil Rights Act

WTF. How is commemorating the Civil Rights Act anti-unity. (Don’t answer that; it’s a rhetorical question.)
posted by eviemath at 12:18 PM on July 15 [23 favorites]

oh no vance might help trump win the hitherto undecided redneck pro-life vote
posted by mittens at 12:20 PM on July 15 [33 favorites]

Mod note: Hi folks, a few comments removed, please reload the thread if you need to get a current version -- there is a MeTa already in progress about how we handle how we talk about the future. Please consider having metacommentary there and avoid doomerism in here to the best of your abilities. Thank you.
posted by jessamyn (staff) at 12:23 PM on July 15 [13 favorites]

Sam Seaborn : Why are you so bent on countering these idiot leaflets?

Bruno Gianelli : Because I'm tired of working for candidates who make me think that I should be embarrassed to believe what I believe, Sam! I'm tired of getting them elected! We all need some therapy, because somebody came along and said, "'Liberal' means soft on crime, soft on drugs, soft on Communism, soft on defense, and we're gonna tax you back to the Stone Age because people shouldn't have to go to work if they don't want to!" And instead of saying, "Well, excuse me, you right-wing, reactionary, xenophobic, homophobic, anti-education, anti-choice, pro-gun, Leave It To Beaver trip back to the Fifties...!", we cowered in the corner, and said, "Please. Don't. Hurt. Me." No more. I really don't care who's right, who's wrong. We're both right. We're both wrong. Let's have two parties, huh? What do you say?

posted by kirkaracha at 12:26 PM on July 15 [11 favorites]

I am afraid and anxious that this will lead to Trump getting reelected, permanent Republican rule, and the end of democracy in the United States. I would appreciate acknowledgement of my fear and anxiety, knowing that I’m not alone, and solutions or suggestions for action to avoid or mitigate the negative outcomes.
posted by kirkaracha at 12:34 PM on July 15 [19 favorites]

“Yet another new, darker era,” Ryan Broderick, Garbage Day, 15 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 12:51 PM on July 15 [1 favorite]

I just want to be clear here: either Trump and his followers are fascists, or they are not. (They are.)

You do not have to be civil to fascists. You do not have to be glad they didn't die. You do not have to offer them thoughts or prayers or hopes for a speedy recovery.

More than that, you should not, because doing those things is an implicit endorsement of the violence that fascists do to everyone. And those of us who are victims & targets of fascism definitely see you.
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:02 PM on July 15 [20 favorites]

Against Unity (The Ink)

Within minutes of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump, the Unity Statements began to popcorn out.

Every Unity Statement is different, but there are certain stylistic requirements that a Democratic political figure knows to follow.
…
Second, the Unity Statement must deplore effects without naming or shaming their causes. Now is not the time for blaming someone for their role in contributing to what has finally now come around to imperil them, too. The Unity Statement thereby defies physics with its conception of uncaused effects; it defies botany in its vision of reaping with no connection whatever to sowing.

Third, a Democratic Unity Statement must mention temperature. Specifically, it should suggest that the temperature has risen too high. Though it may be Republicans who are overwhelmingly responsible for raising the temperature, planetarily and politically, in a respectable Unity Statement, this cannot be said. Instead, it should be argued that the temperature be lowered. Who knows how it got raised, and who really cares? And the Democratic statement maker must immediately volunteer to participate in the lowering of what they may have had no part in raising.

Fourth, the Unity Statement must, duh!, call for unity. Oh, and it must be unilateral unity. “Unity,” unmodified, is defined by Merriam-Webster as “the quality or state of not being multiple,” even “a condition of harmony.” The issuer of the Unity Statement knows that this ain’t gonna happen nationally. What the well-meaning Democratic leader means when they call for unity is that they want you, their followers, the people who would actually listen to a Democrat’s words, to engage in some unity making all by yourself. Reach out to an uncle you cut out of your life just because he made the honest mistake of degrading your very being at Thanksgiving; bake brownies for a neighbor whose only sin is flying a Trump flag — plus the Aryan Nations tattoos. Go do some unity — and don’t wait for anyone else to join you. Dance like no one’s watching, they say. Do unity like the other side isn’t ever going to do it also.

Fifth, for extra credit on your Unity Statement, you can even go so far as to argue that unity now demands refraining from telling the truth about threats to democracy. We can’t all get along if we’re busy pointing over there and yelling, “That man is an existential threat to democracy!” It’s mean. So, as Democratic Congressman Jared Golden wrote in the aftermath of the attack on Trump, “We can start by dropping hyperbolic threats about the stakes of this election. It should not be misleadingly portrayed as a struggle between democracy or authoritarianism, or a battle against fascists or socialists bent on destroying America.”

posted by adrienneleigh at 1:04 PM on July 15 [16 favorites]

kirkaracha, you aren’t alone. I’m moderately offline at the moment, so this all seems very unreal, and I am concerned about the implications. I am also bearing in mind that I’ve been told repeatedly over the last 8 years that “democracy is over,” and in fact it is not. Local, state, and national elections matter and have consequences. Most everything associated with this event is far from average citizens’ ability to influence… but voting isn’t.

If you wish to do something, as others here have mentioned, sending personalized postcards to undecided voters/swing states seems to have a positive effect on increasing voter turnout.
posted by cupcakeninja at 1:10 PM on July 15 [12 favorites]

The shooter finished high school two years ago, so his former classmates' takes are less timely. "Despite his academic achievements" [ouch], he enrolled in a local community college, and also held this job:

The administrator of Bethel Park Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation, where Crooks worked as a dietary aide, said Crooks had a clean background check when he was hired and that she was she was “shocked and saddened to learn of his involvement” in the shooting.

Old-school radicalization, literally? Same AJC link notes Libertarian dad, Democrat mom, with registered-Republican kids: the shooter, 20, and his sister, 22.
posted by Iris Gambol at 1:37 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

How many times have Republicans said that if a Black or other POC had Just Stayed Home, they wouldn't have been shot X3 times by the police?


Opposing political views shouldn't be a death sentence, but..... They want me dead for a dozen more reasons than I want them to not have the slightest bit of power.


Good man killed in support of one of the most vile ideology of the times really brings up the question of how much bad is required to counteract any good. The evil that men do lives on and on and on.

If he'd just stayed home, or been almost literally anywhere else other than a Trump rally, dude would have been just fine. Me? I'm at risk in a wide swath of the country because of people who enthusiastically entertain Trumpism.


And why shouldn't we consider ourselves at war? The Right wingers have been declaring it, them against us, for decades. When people tell you who they are, believe them. I for one prefer not to go quietly into fascism
posted by Jacen at 1:47 PM on July 15 [20 favorites]

things are bad in the US right now, but we are not actually at war.
what's going on right now in the USA (mainly it seems by some on the right) is what amounts to a ramping up for war.
I believe the Extreme Right is making a reasonably successful power and cash grab. They have gotten really good at controlling the narrative. Despite most of us feeling that the aggregation of wealth by a few is wrong and unhealthy, it continues. We've been steadily losing ground, like Roe. If we're at war, the bad guys are winning.
posted by theora55 at 1:54 PM on July 15 [8 favorites]

There's another thing in the list presented by LeRoienJaune that's worth noting:

It's not actually the dictator, or would be dictator who is the problem.

The problem is that the entire nation has gone far enough around the bend that a large percentage of the population, not even a majority, wants a dictator.

All those questions about time travel and killing baby Hitler [1] ignore the part where a large percentage of Germans wanted someone like Hitler to become dictator.

In the other leg of the trousers of time where the bullet did kill Trump that wouldn't have ended the threat of Trumpism. All his worshipers would find a new cult figure to revere and hold up as their dictator. It might take a few years, the immediate pressure might be off, but it'd happen.

The problem is not and never has been Trump.

The problem is all the people who like him and his policies.

And I do admit that "Trump's tame judge dismisses the entire case on a fringe Constitutional theory that if she was honest she could have invoked at the beginning of the case but instead waited until the last second so there is no time for anything to happen before the elections" wasn't on my bingo card but in retrospect it should have been.

OF COURSE Judge Cannon wasn't going to just play normal delaying tactics and then hope Trump wins in November before the case can come to trial. She pulled a Mueller and ran out the clock then went "lulz gotcha Trump was immune from the beginning".

It shouldn't have been a surprise in Mueller's case, he's a lifelong Republican with a hate on for Democrats after all. But it REALLY shouldn't have been a surprise in Cannon's case. And yet, I was surprised.

This timeline keeps reminding me that my cynicism, hatred of humanity, despair, and contempt for my opponenets is insufficient. Congrats Judge Cannon, you blindsided me with that one. Good job I guess.

As far as the shooter goes, it doesn't really matter what he actually was. The Republicans will be saying he's a radical liberal leftist and reality won't matter. Trying to conspiracy board his actual political leanings is only an issue that matters to people not already voting for Trump.

What matters is doing the opposite of what coward and traitor "Democratic" Rep. Jared Golden (Maine) says to do. Golden says we must immediatly and unilaterally stop all attack ads, never say Trump is a threat to democracy, never say this election is between democracy and despotism, and generally act like nothing matters and Trump is totally a swell guy.

What matters is continuing to hammer on the fact that Trump is a wannabe dictator, Project 2025 is a handbook for brining about an end to fair elections and the beginning of a Christian Taliban style rule, banning abortion nationwide, banning porn, banning being gay, banning contraception, and throwing Trump's political rivals in prison.

Because God knows our candidate isn't inspiring. All we have to run on is negatives, so if the Democrats fail to play up those negatives they will lose.

I'd also suggest never mentioning Biden by name, never saying "Trump too", but aggressively campaigning on Trump's own mental decline and obvious stupidity and senility. Video of him stalling out, stumbling on his words, rambling and changing subjects, etc should be everywhere.

Jacen Naah, anyone who isn't a coward like Turmp will try to protect those they care about. It doesn't make that person good or heroic, just human. Nazis died protecting their comrades too. Protecting one's in group is never a sign that a person is heroic, or more generally good.

The quetion is how they are about protecting people they aren't personally related to or sharing an in group with.

Someone like Keshia Thomas, the Black woman at the 1996 Ann Arbour anti-Klan protest who protected a Klansman from an angry mob by standing between them and him, was heroic.

The guy who died at the Trump rally was just a Nazi who loved his family.

[1] Tangent but, do you notice that no one ever says go back in time and distract Hitler's dad for a day so the baby is never born? Or kidnap baby Hitler and raise him in a loving multicultural environment where he wouldn't grow up to be a genocidal dictator? Nope, they always go straight to killing baby Hitler.
posted by sotonohito at 1:57 PM on July 15 [13 favorites]

QFT: When people tell you who they are, believe them. I for one prefer not to go quietly into fascism
Read about Project 2025; they are telling us exactly who they are with a great deal of detail. It is extremely important to push back, unless you are a .1%er, in which case, I'd like to invite you to a barbecue.
posted by theora55 at 1:57 PM on July 15 [7 favorites]

>Project 2025 is a handbook for brining

To Serve Man indeed
posted by torokunai at 2:09 PM on July 15 [16 favorites]

NYTimes now reporting the shooter's phone has been finally cracked, so who knows, maybe we'll learn something.
posted by coffeecat at 2:17 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

NYT: When Even an Assassination Attempt Becomes a Concert Tee
Hours after the attempt on Donald Trump’s life, the merch arrived.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:25 PM on July 15

Sigh. It's going to turn out that the shooter was autistic, isn't it? I'm hoping that the assholes don't fixate on that, but I'm nervous about it.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 2:30 PM on July 15 [6 favorites]

I'm not sure if it's conspiracy thinking or not, but am I the only one who worries that the FBI, an intensely right wing organization, might make up stuff to back up the inevitable Republican narrative that the shooter was a radical leftist? Or at the very least that they'll selectively release only things that back the narrative?

He might have been a radicalleftist. I don't know. But I'm deeply suspicious of what the FBI is going to publish.
posted by sotonohito at 2:35 PM on July 15 [1 favorite]

sotonohito, what you're suggesting would require a massive conspiracy, likely involving Merrick Garland, and I just don't see that happening. There will be intense scrutiny on multiple levels here - and I'd say the FBI is more centrist than anything - I'm not saying agents never get up to foul play or are always 100% honest, but the idea that they will make up info to make him look like a radical leftist seems pretty far fetched.
posted by coffeecat at 2:48 PM on July 15 [7 favorites]

the FBI is more centrist than anything

The FBI is full of cops, and all cops are right-wing. (Even the ones who don't think they are; policing is a fundamentally reactionary endeavor.)
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:06 PM on July 15 [9 favorites]

Washington Post: Witnesses warned police of Trump shooter at least 86 seconds before gunfire, video shows
posted by tonycpsu at 3:25 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

Part of Trump's goal is to make everyone suspicious of every purported fact all the time. It's part of the asymmetry where lies are stronger than the truth.
posted by rikschell at 3:25 PM on July 15 [13 favorites]

I'm not sure if it's conspiracy thinking or not, but am I the only one who worries that the FBI, an intensely right wing organization, might make up stuff to back up the inevitable Republican narrative that the shooter was a radical leftist?

I think you might be the only one, because that is indeed conspiracy thinking, to my mind.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:25 PM on July 15 [8 favorites]

It's hilarious that both left and right can claim the shooter hailed from the other side. Go Merica!

At least the FBI has not started planting qurans yet, so that's actually kinda centrist of them, from an American perspective.

Yes, all the terrorists the FBI arrested were actually trained, or at least entrapped, by the FBI, but bullshit show prosecutions is the FBI bread & butter. It's not even remorely the same as faking a dead guys religious curiosity.

We'd already have normalized quran planting if the DEA handled these political cases. lol

As I've said before..

Republican candidates have become worse almost monotonically since Eisenhower. Afaik the only exceptions were George Bush v1 having less diverse corruption than Ronald Reagan, and Gerald Ford being incomparable to Richard Nixon. It's all down hill since 1953 otherwise!
posted by jeffburdges at 3:52 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

There's plenty of history of rightist conspiratorial behavior from the FBI, an organization that has never cleaned house since JEH. So I don't think it's an absurd thing to wonder. But conspiracies on that scale are pretty hard to pull off, so I'm not inclined to think it's likely at this stage.

(But if we're doing FBI conspiracy theories, I'd like to put in a word for "Hoover helped Dillinger fake his own death." Always been a favorite of mine.)
posted by Not A Thing at 3:52 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

I also had a thought about the attempts to square the circle between "shooter espoused conservative viewpoint" and "shooter made a small donation to a progressive cause" -

So, Crooks was only 17 when he made that donation. A high school student who hadn't quite finished "cooking". And thus - think back to when you were in high school. Didn't you ever try to claim interest in something that you weren't into because your crush said they were interested in it? Or didn't you at least know someone who did that?

That would track, wouldn't it? He's a conservative-leaning guy, but the girl who was collecting for the progressive voter project was pretty, and so sure, he'll donate a few dollars if maybe it makes her sympathetic to him and he can ask her out.....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:56 PM on July 15 [4 favorites]

A thought crossed my mind, but could someone have made the donation on his behalf? Like his mother, perhaps?

I would also imagine a donation via ActBlue would usually require a credit or debit card of some sort. But yeah, the progressive-curious-because-of-social-circle kid to reactionary adult pipeline is also a real thing, in my view.
posted by donttouchmymustache at 4:04 PM on July 15 [1 favorite]

soooooooo frustrated with my Facebook friends and their conspiracy theories right now

most of the conspiracy theories seem to be predicated on the belief that the Secret Service are a bunch of hypercompetent badasses and therefore the only way this could happen is if they allowed it

what's maddening is most of my friends are either current or former LP activists and thus were following the news from the LP national convention two months ago, where the Secret Service diligently screened everyone at the door to ensure "no lighters, no water bottles, no noisy chickens" were in the room for Trump's speech (don't get me started on why he was there) and yet someone still smuggled one in and made it "fly" back and forth squawking on CSPAN

if the Secret Service can't even keep people from smuggling contraband into a hotel ballroom they have 100% control over, why would you expect them to be able to stop someone from bringing a gun to a spot outside a rally in an open field?

but the same people who were laughing at my "who would win: the Secret Service, or one squeaky boi?" memes two months ago are now spinning conspiracy theories as if they believe the Secret Service to be infallible

we are not living in an episode of 24
posted by Jacqueline at 4:29 PM on July 15 [10 favorites]

It doesn't matter if the shooter was "left" or "right". Part of the fascist play book is to sow misinformation, chaos and violence that justifies the actions of the fascist leader(s). Trump and leaders in the Republican party have been doing that for YEARS now. Republican leaders will make entirely contradictory statements day to day even ones contrary to facts if that will make their position seem more appealing to whatever audience they are talking to at the moment.
posted by R343L at 4:34 PM on July 15 [8 favorites]

the Venn diagram of Facebook users and conspiracy theorists is close to a circle now (by algorithmic design)
posted by rikschell at 4:35 PM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Jacqueline! What ever is a "noisy chicken"?
posted by unearthed at 4:49 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

The YouTuber behind the Demolition Ranch Channel has posted a video in response to many inquiries.
posted by interogative mood at 4:52 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

Haven't seen this connected yet, but maybe I missed it, anyone thought about Trump famously not paying for security?
posted by MadMadam at 4:57 PM on July 15 [7 favorites]

Re the FBI and conspiracies:
I generally try to stay away from conspiratorial thinking, but it was only 8 years ago that James Comey, against the instructions of the DoJ, made statements to Congress that implied there was more to the investigation into Clinton's emails which, in turn, swayed the last of the undecided votes to Trump. I don't think that required much of a vast conspiracy. Nothing had to be faked or fabricated. Just some selective misleading communication.
posted by The Great Big Mulp at 5:16 PM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Jacqueline! What ever is a "noisy chicken"?

You know those rubber chickens that squeak when you squeeze them? I think they're sold as dog toys.

Anyhow, RFK Jr also spoke at the LP convention (again, don't get me started), and his campaign brought a bunch of squeaky rubber chickens that had "Debate Bobby" written on them and they handed them out to all the Libertarian convention delegates like party favors. The message being that Trump was too "chicken" to debate him.

For all that I dislike RFK Jr, I must give props to his campaign team for doing their market research and correctly deducing that there's nothing Libertarians love more than waving ridiculous props around on CSPAN. (If you were watching the coverage of the 2016 VP debate and noticed a giant foam Gary Johnson head dancing around behind the on-site commentators, that was my doing lol.)

So everyone was super delighted to receive the chickens, and then super disappointed when the Secret Service confiscated them before Trump's speech. But they missed one. :)

But yeah "Secret Service confiscated the rubber chickens that the candidate with the brain worms gave to the Libertarians to honk at the candidate who believes in windmill cancer" is a thing that happened this year, if you're looking for tidbits to add to your "what a time to be alive" list.

What's more interesting about the incident was that Trump kept mentioning that Libertarians could either vote for him and win or keep getting 4%. It was already weird that his campaign reached out to arrange to have him speak at the LP convention to begin with, and it's extra weird that he knew what percentage of the vote our candidates usually get... almost as if his internal projections were bad enough that his handlers repeatedly hammered into his head that he really NEEDS our 4% and should try to win us over.

He got the shit booed out of him instead. :D

Anyhow, the Secret Service can't even keep a rubber chicken out of a hotel ballroom despite frisking everyone for them at the door.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:18 PM on July 15 [24 favorites]

Heard on TikTok: “Do you know how much of a liar you gotta be to get shot at for real and people think it was fake?”
posted by Fleebnork at 5:30 PM on July 15 [20 favorites]

Anyhow, the Secret Service can't even keep a rubber chicken out of a hotel ballroom despite frisking everyone for them at the door.

The Secret Service shouldn't have about the same amount of standards for frisking as my high school graduation, featuring tortillas, silly string, and inflatables.
posted by jenfullmoon at 5:35 PM on July 15

interogative mood: “Richard Spencer getting punched actually boosted him.”

“'They Want To Be A Part of History': Elle Reeve on the Extremely-Online Fascist Resurgence,” Spencer Ackerman, FOREVER WARS, 15 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 5:41 PM on July 15 [3 favorites]

People would rather believe in elaborate conspiracy theories about it being an inside job than accept that it's not actually that difficult to take a shot at a US President or Presidential candidate. The reason it doesn't happen more often is that most people don't want to and the rest of us are simply too lazy.
posted by Jacqueline at 5:46 PM on July 15 [17 favorites]

And the immense threat of immediate death plus the system probably won't change all that much
posted by Jacen at 7:09 PM on July 15 [3 favorites]

The reason it doesn't happen more often is that most people don't want to and the rest of us are simply too lazy.

Perhaps a few people are also deterred by the fact that everyone(?) who has tried this is either immediately killed or spends the rest of their life in jail.
posted by snofoam at 7:45 PM on July 15 [5 favorites]

Perhaps a few people are also deterred by the fact that everyone(?) who has tried this is either immediately killed or spends the rest of their life in jail.

I was reading a (obviously) fiction book about kidnapping George Bush the elder during a presidential event, and the author remarked that for someone determined it’s really not hard to get in position to attempt to kill a president or high ranking official, but getting away or even surviving the attempt is going to be pretty much impossible, which is the real deterrent.
posted by azpenguin at 8:09 PM on July 15 [3 favorites]

Tom Hagen: It'd be like trying to kill the president; it's impossible.

Michael Corleone: Tom, now you surprise me. If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can kill anyone.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:22 PM on July 15 [4 favorites]

“Rewriting the Rules of Engagement: GOP's Attempt to Silence Legitimate Criticism,” Parker Molloy, The Present Age, 15 July 2024

P.S. Ah, nuts. I didn't realize it was a subscriber post. It's also on Parker's Patreon if you'd rather do that than give those Substack creeps any money.
posted by ob1quixote at 8:46 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

“On Authoritarianism,” Rabbi Danya Ruttenberg, Life is a Sacred Text, 15 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 9:21 PM on July 15 [2 favorites]

The problem is all the people who like him and his policies.

This, 1000x. As an old cis white guy, I'm unlikely to be affected much by Trump's policies on a personal level. But what it says about the country as a whole is what makes me want to leave.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:25 PM on July 15 [14 favorites]

But what it says about the country as a whole is what makes me want to leave.

What it says about the country as a whole is that its largely vulnerable populace is oppressed by decades of successive shit outcomes that were determined by counter-majoritarian institutions, and that we white cis guys who are less impacted have a responsibility to help fight for a democracy.
posted by kensington314 at 10:48 PM on July 15 [26 favorites]

we white cis guys who are less impacted have a responsibility to help fight for a democracy.

Oh, I agree, I was talking about my emotional response. However, the fact that the institutions of the country House, Senate, Electoral College, and now Judicial are biased in favor of the minority in power makes the prospects rather bleak, especially since the current Executive has not been particularly effective in combatting them.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 11:17 PM on July 15 [8 favorites]

We've always had disgusting people in this country, and once they were absolutely the majority. Trump is in fact a central problem, because no one other than him has ever managed to assemble the coalition he's won by bringing together strategic arch-conservatives with the ignorant disengaged through his particular brand of celebrity allure, hate speech, and strongman posturing, and dragging formerly moderate conservatives along with him. He's the head of the beast and the GOP would be far weaker without him.
posted by Miko at 5:31 AM on July 16 [19 favorites]

There's a lot of government (deficit) spending holding this country together right now, eg:

SNAP benefits per working-age adult

If that goes, zog help us.
posted by torokunai at 7:54 AM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Jack Black cancels Tenacious D tour over 'evil' Trump assassination comments

The current Tenacious D tour has been canceled by Jack Black after his bandmate Kyle Gass made a shocking joke about the suspected assassination attempt against Donald Trump

The comedy duo, made up of Jack and Kyle Gass, performed at the ICC Sydney Theatre in Australia on Saturday where Kyle made light of the suspected assassination attempt against Trump. Jack has said he was "blindsided" by the comments and does not condone violence.

Just hours after the shooting, Kyle was presented with a cake on stage to celebrate his 64th birthday. "Make a wish," Jack said as Kyle was given the cake.

As his bandmate blew out the candles, he said: "Don't miss Trump next time."

In a statement shared with The Mirror US, Jack said: "I was blindsided by what was said at the show on Sunday. I would never condone hate speech or encourage political violence in any form. After much reflection, I no longer feel it is appropriate to continue the Tenacious D tour, and all future creative plans are on hold. I am grateful to the fans for their support and understanding."

posted by achrise at 7:59 AM on July 16 [3 favorites]

As an old cis white guy, I'm unlikely to be affected much by Trump's policies on a personal level.

As someone who lives in Germany, almost 80 years post-Nazi, I would like to disabuse you of these ideas. The Nazis ruined Germany and the German people down at least two generations and, frankly, even into certain aspects of the third. It isn't a game we play but about once a month, at least, an example pops up of something the nazi's ruined for everyone. It is not an ideal way to go through life.

Trump and his fascist neo-nazi handlers are, if history is any guide, not going to be a good thing and their impact will be felt by absolutely every one.
posted by From Bklyn at 8:06 AM on July 16 [41 favorites]

It's hilarious that both left and right can claim the shooter hailed from the other side. Go Merica!

Schrödinger's Shooter.
posted by mazola at 8:19 AM on July 16 [2 favorites]

The other thing is, let's imagine that those maniacs in the GOP cut social security, medicare, medicaid, SNAP, etc. The ripple effects for everyone who isn't flat out rich from investments is going to be huge. Business owner? Whoops, people have even less to spend. Person with elderly parents or a disabled relative? Hope you've got extra money to help them out!

Consider way YieldStar, the rent collusion algorithm that landlords use. Say a landlord has 100 apartments. He makes more money renting 50 at extortionate rates and letting 50 stay locked up than keeping them all rented out. He decides to squeeze his existing tenants more and more by tacking on fees and jacking the rents and cutting services. Meanwhile, many people can't afford the rents so they move home or become homeless. Misery increases and this guy's profits go up. If people have nowhere to live, they either move home, become homeless or do without everything else to stay housed, living in increasingly miserable conditions. And all the landlords use the algorithm to make sure they're all on the same page so there aren't any cheap rents.

That's the future with the GOP - squeezing out the last of our blood and then leaving us to die in the street. You know how I hate to say anything good about the Biden administration, but they are suing YieldStar, and there's no way that won't get stopped if Trump is elected. It will be YieldStars everywhere.

So in addition to watching people get deported, imprisoned, etc, even if you make a good wage and have a secure job, you will be going broke because if your aged parent or frail sibling needs housing or medicine, you aren't going to toss them to the curb, you're going to pay for it yourself.
posted by Frowner at 8:28 AM on July 16 [31 favorites]

They'll add carrots to the sticks tho. Like transition the current income tax system to a 5% flat tax with $50K deductible or somesuch.

This is "Project 2025" aka Year Zero of The Second American Revolution after all.
posted by torokunai at 8:34 AM on July 16

This coming Friday's New European has given its cover over to a full-page white-on-black headline:

"The bullet hit Trump, but it killed Biden".

I have a horrible feeling they may be right.
posted by Paul Slade at 8:36 AM on July 16 [5 favorites]

*cries reading that*

I saw this headline from NYT today: After Saturday, Trump’s Devotees See ‘God’s Protection’

*throws up*
posted by jenfullmoon at 8:52 AM on July 16 [4 favorites]

I call BULLSHIT. Maybe this motivates hardcore Trump supporters and makes him look less like a loser. But there is PLENTY to motivate the anti-Trump vote, too. This changes nothing about women's reproductive rights, or xenophobia, or hate crimes, or protecting the economy, or any of the other thousand issues that Biden is the better choice on. If you're feeling so much doom and gloom that you've given up and you're not going to phone bank or drive people to the polls or even vote yourself, then YOU ARE THE PROBLEM. If you're just feeling hopelessness and despair, talk to a therapist while health insurance still exists, or go cry on MetaTalk. Newspapers are more clickbait than clickbait now. Don't let spammy headlines control your mental health.
posted by rikschell at 9:21 AM on July 16 [40 favorites]

Schrödinger's Shooter.

Nah, he’s definitely unalive now. 😶
posted by funkaspuck at 9:27 AM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Nah, he’s definitely unalive now.

Only in this branch of the wave function.
posted by wierdo at 9:29 AM on July 16 [1 favorite]

One dynamic that may or may not come up with this event is a parallel with the successful Abe assassination.

That dude was pissed off about Abe & the ruling LDP being in bed with the "Moonies". But weirdly enough, this murder led to:

Japan asks court to dissolve 'Moonies' church over Shinzo Abe killing

Maybe – maybe – something similar will happen if the shooter's Epstein link rumor is true.
posted by torokunai at 9:32 AM on July 16

When you said "Abe," I thought Lincoln and then I got REALLY confused.
posted by rikschell at 9:34 AM on July 16 [8 favorites]

I have a horrible feeling they may be right.

so what will you do about it?
posted by philip-random at 9:34 AM on July 16 [5 favorites]

Me also: oh right, the non-hat Abe
posted by funkaspuck at 9:39 AM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Maybe – maybe – something similar will happen if the shooter's Epstein link rumor is true.
posted by torokunai

I've seen no news report or rumors anywhere of a link to Epstein.
posted by tiny frying pan at 9:59 AM on July 16 [1 favorite]

so what will you do about it?

I'm not an American, and nor do I live there. What would you suggest?
posted by Paul Slade at 10:07 AM on July 16 [13 favorites]

Who has Debtors Prison on the bingo cards? Anyone?

How about organ harvesting the poor?
posted by Jacen at 10:25 AM on July 16 [3 favorites]

(Politifact says 'nah' about the Crooks/Epstein connection.)
posted by box at 10:29 AM on July 16 [3 favorites]

How about organ harvesting the poor?

That would require a functional healthcare system.
posted by mittens at 10:37 AM on July 16 [1 favorite]

so what will you do about it?

I can only watch fearfully from Europe.....
posted by Pendragon at 10:37 AM on July 16 [1 favorite]

Mod note: Another comment deleted. Please refer to the previous mod comment.
posted by loup (staff) at 10:41 AM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Phone call leaked of RFK Jr and Trump talking after the assassination attempt. Trump sounds totally unhinged
posted by interogative mood at 12:23 PM on July 16 [8 favorites]

He sounds normal to me LOL (weeping)
posted by tiny frying pan at 12:27 PM on July 16 [6 favorites]

Apropos of criticism of the security, the Secret Service had apparently ramped up security after receiving intel of Iranian plot to assassinate Trump "in recent weeks."
posted by kirkaracha at 12:28 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Who has Debtors Prison on the bingo cards? Anyone?

Call me a Pollyanna, but at least this would take Alex Jones off the table….
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:29 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

Imagine me doing a full-on majorette routine with a flag and sparklers behind rikschell because YEAH.

> so what will you do about it?

I'm not an American, and nor do I live there. What would you suggest?

You're doing it right now. You're talking to Americans in a public forum, and you're telling them that "yo, the idea of Trump winning has me FUCKING TERRIFIED so please for the love of God vote because you can and I can't". (At least, I'm assuming that is the implication.)

If you have any analogies you can add, like From Bklyn did above, that can also help - from looking at your profile I get the sense you're from the UK, so adding some insight about how the insularity of the Brexit mindset fucked everything up could also help. Because your average American knows only fuck-all about the politics of the UK, and those of us who do have any sense have only a partial perspective (I only know what i know because of watching The Last Leg, which is hardly an authoritative perspective, I'd say).
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 12:31 PM on July 16 [7 favorites]

Let's donate some more to MetaFilter. Still important, still relevant. And doesn't look a day over 23!
posted by Artful Codger at 12:55 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

Really would have bet cash it would be the U2 thread that brought hippybear back.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:56 PM on July 16 [13 favorites]

I'm not soliciting donations or any kind of schemes. I'm specifically saying NOT to do anything illegal. But the donations I make with my own money are my own business.
posted by rikschell at 12:56 PM on July 16

(hi hippybear!)
posted by mittens at 12:58 PM on July 16 [5 favorites]

We already have 'debtor's prison' for those who, e.g., can't afford to service their probation obligations.
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:02 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Speaking of donations -

It sounds like Crooks' $15 donation to the progressive site was in response to an email offering people the chance to live-stream Biden's inauguration if they pledged a modest amount. So he could simply have been trying to watch the inauguration.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:10 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

"The bullet hit Trump, but it killed Biden".

lol what a laughably dumb headline. No one has any way of knowing that at this point. There are 16 weeks before the election. I'll go out on a limb and state with certainty that all sorts of things will happen between now and then. All sorts of things, I tell you.

Giving up, or pretending to have a crystal ball for clicks, are such stupid and easy responses. We should ignore folks who use them.
posted by mediareport at 1:14 PM on July 16 [17 favorites]

I'll go out on a limb and state with certainty that all sorts of things will happen between now and then.

No thanks! No more things!
posted by mittens at 1:15 PM on July 16 [24 favorites]

> I'll go out on a limb and state with certainty that all sorts of things will happen between now and then.

No thanks! No more things!

Not even Trump getting hit with some kind of alien mind-control ray that makes him think he's Marcel Marceau and he ends up quitting the race to join Mummenschanz?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 1:19 PM on July 16 [7 favorites]

Right-wingers spotted that there were women in Trump's Secret Service detail when they jumped up and into the line of fire to protect him when the shooting started. So of course they're to blame for what happened. WSJ. Archive version.. The included commentators are quite the list: Matt Walsh, Elon Musk, Bill Ackman.

WSJ Youtube: The Secret Service Security Failures During Trump's Attempted Assassination

Another reason not to vote for the far right.
posted by srboisvert at 1:26 PM on July 16 [1 favorite]

”The bullet hit Trump, but it killed Biden".

lol what a laughably dumb headline.

… Europe is freaking the fuck out about Trump. No one is happy about this.
posted by From Bklyn at 1:34 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

Mod note: One deleted, let's not try to circumvent the law here.
posted by loup (staff) at 1:34 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

lol what a laughably dumb headline

For real, there is far more pressing news going on at the moment, and people are writing about it. For instance, this story I got served in my feed just today. It really makes you think.
posted by phunniemee at 1:46 PM on July 16 [7 favorites]

I promise I'm also freaking the fuck out about Trump and Thiel Jr., From Bklyn. But that stupid headline gave me the first good guffaw since the shooting, so I guess I should thank the writer for it.

Pissing and moaning that the election is now over, while conjuring up images of some sort of Wile E. Coyote/Three Stooges catastrophe, is not a response to take seriously.
posted by mediareport at 1:47 PM on July 16 [6 favorites]

I don't think the Trump shooting or the JD Vance announcement mean that Biden is 100% guaranteed to lose. IT's mostly about turnout among people with have already picked sides or are "D-leaning" or "R-leaning" independents. I'm still most worried that bad-debate-Biden will show up again at a crucial moment in, say, October, which let's remind ourselves is when the great majority of Americans start to pay any attention to the election AT ALL.

I'm crushingly worried about Trump winning, of course, but after a couple of days to cool down, neither of the above events moves the needle for me.

I listened to the latest PSA from today (shooting, JD Vance, and documents case all happened since Friday, jeez) and fwiw Dan Pfeiffer's assessment of JD Vance is:

* least bad as a campaign opponent (no broad reach beyond the base, unlike Rubio who could have pulled some Latinx folks maybe).
* worst possible as a governing VP (smart, articulate, only 39, compelling life story, and could be a palatable Trump well into the future if Trump dies in office)

I mostly agree with that.
posted by caviar2d2 at 1:55 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

I mean... fivethirtyeight has Biden with his biggest lead in a while. (Yes, I realize that fivethirtyeight has gone from Nate Silver's occasionally problematic but diligently maintained project to just a computer the NYT leaves on, but still.)
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:07 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

It is way too soon to know if the assassination attempt is going to make any difference, let alone how much and in what direction. The election is still 3.5 months away, and that is a lifetime in politics. Anybody who claims it has sealed the deal for Trump is not to be taken seriously.

Which in no way diminishes the very real dangers ahead.
posted by Pouteria at 2:16 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

"The bullet hit Trump, but it killed Biden".

Of course it didn't. The fact that it hasn't moved the needle, well, at all, is all Trump's fault, IMO. He's the one who's set up year after year, day after day, of exhausting news, "surely this"'s, crazy rhetoric, threats of violence, and now this happens, and we're all just too inured to "bad weird shit happens to trump, nothing changes, news at 11". My prediction: the continuing flood of crazy will have this as barely a footnote by the election. "Remember that time that rando tried to assassinate Trump? Anyway, *pulls lever*".
posted by mrgoat at 2:21 PM on July 16 [15 favorites]

It's a footnote now. Not a single person mentioned it at my work today. But on the other hand, we are all very tired.
posted by tiny frying pan at 2:22 PM on July 16 [11 favorites]

Yes, I realize that fivethirtyeight has gone from [...] to just a computer the NYT leaves on, but still.

A computer that Disney leaves on!

(And, yeah, even if their new model might be off/naive/etc. about the overall probabilities, it's nice to see its shaky little line moving in the better direction. But if we live in the timeline in which Biden stays in the race and loses, I sure hope neither of those things is because his campaign decided everything was fine thanks to fivethirtyeight's optimistic 53-47 odds.)
posted by nobody at 2:33 PM on July 16

My prediction: the continuing flood of crazy will have this as barely a footnote by the election. "Remember that time that rando tried to assassinate Trump? Anyway, *pulls lever*".

Possible support for this theory -

I bet people don't remember the last time someone was suspected of an attempt on Trump's life, before the 2016 election. In that case it was a much less violent act, but it still raised eyebrows - remember? The 20-year-old who tried to climb Trump Tower with a couple of huge suction cups? so he could meet with Trump about something that was "in [his] interest".

That happened in August of 2016, and I don't think anyone remembered him in November.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:40 PM on July 16 [7 favorites]

speaking of assassinations, one of the 4000 out of town cops killed an unhoused man 10 blocks away from the security zone today in milwaukee
posted by dis_integration at 2:46 PM on July 16 [12 favorites]

I mean... fivethirtyeight has Biden with his biggest lead in a while. (Yes, I realize that fivethirtyeight has gone from Nate Silver's occasionally problematic but diligently maintained project to just a computer the NYT leaves on, but still.)

538 is very much the outlier among models and bears absolutely no resemblance to current poll results in swing states.
posted by Gadarene at 3:01 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

Dammit, let me look at the line and be happy, if only for a little bit!
posted by VTX at 3:09 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

Nate Silver has a new model on his substack. His current forecast is that the race is a toss up and Biden was showing some improvement before the assassination. The certainty that Biden can’t win isn’t reflected in the data. No one other than the incumbent President is better positioned to defeat Trump.
posted by interogative mood at 3:10 PM on July 16 [6 favorites]

Trump, amongst other Trumpy garbage, shitting on Biden’s call to him in conversation with RFK.
posted by Artw at 3:12 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

I have absolutely no sympathy for RFK Jr., but her sure looks like he misses the brain worm there.
posted by rikschell at 3:18 PM on July 16 [2 favorites]

His current forecast is that the race is a toss up and Biden was showing some improvement before the assassination.

Wait, is this for real? It's behind a paywall, so I haven't seen any of it directly, but on June 26th (before the debate), media reported that his model debuted showing around 66 percent odds for Trump (and he seemed to be kind of crowing about it, I'd thought, how impartial he is, etc.), and I've now found a random site's article revealing that as of four or so days ago his model had supposedly shifted to giving Trump 72.2% odds (in a head-to-head race, at least; it didn't reveal the three-way numbers; and that "supposedly" is because the article I found was on what looks to me like a vaguely shifty/partisan substack).

So if his forecast has now shifted all the way back to a toss up that's a really big swing! You've seen behind the paywall?
posted by nobody at 3:46 PM on July 16

538 is very much the outlier among models and bears absolutely no resemblance to[...]

Here are all the sites I've found who have released probabilistic models so far (I'm sure there are others, but I haven't managed to dig them up):

The Economist: 75% Trump, 20% biden (5% electoral college tie, I guess?)

JHK Forecasts: 67% Trump, 33% Biden

Nate Silver's [paywalled]: was confirmed at 66% Trump a few weeks ago; rumored to be even higher/worse four days ago (if you want to trust a random partisan's substack); possibly closer to a toss-up now if interogative mood is correct about that?

The Hill: 56% Trump.

FiveThirtyEight: 53% Biden, 47% Trump.

[And to reiterate -- these are supposed probabilities of one or the other winning the electoral college, not predictions of vote share.]
posted by nobody at 4:09 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

I also remember reading a lot about how, these days, polls mean basically nothing. It's hard enough to get people to answer that samples aren't all that representative anymore. I want to say one article was an interview with Nate Silver.

"Could be miles ahead or miles behind, polls don't mean shit, just do everything you reasonably can" works for me.
posted by VTX at 5:06 PM on July 16 [5 favorites]

Yeah, if only the most gullible people reliably answer calls and texts from unknown numbers, your sample is going to skew credulous, no matter how well you control for representative demographics.
posted by armeowda at 5:10 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

Ok then explain why Biden is like 3-10 points behind Dem senate candidates in those polls.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 5:26 PM on July 16 [8 favorites]

Could be that just a handful of people have strong feelings about it and those happen to be the folks that got included in the poll. Few enough people answer the things anymore than a few opinions can swing the numbers a lot.

The more consistently those results are showing up, the more confidence you can have that it actually represents something like reality but you really can't be sure.

And it's not really going to change what anyone here will do either way. So I'll proceed as if those polls are meaningless until proven otherwise.
posted by VTX at 5:35 PM on July 16 [1 favorite]

And I'm sure as shit not watching the gd NYT needle on election night!*

*I probably will though.
posted by VTX at 5:36 PM on July 16 [5 favorites]

re:Silver, note that he no longer works at FiveThirtyEight, which is now run by ABC using a different model and team helmed by G. Elliott Morris (who Silver has longstanding methodological disagreements with). Their current forecast showing a toss-up tilting Biden is quite controversial -- I'm not deep into it, but it's apparently heavily fundamentals-based and assumes there will be significant tightening down the pike, which often outweighs even unfavorable polling.

Last I heard, Silver's homebrew Substack model (essentially the old 538 model) had Biden's odds somewhere in the mid-high 20s%.
posted by Rhaomi at 5:45 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

"Never tell me the odds" --Han Solo
posted by rikschell at 5:55 PM on July 16 [7 favorites]

“2024 has been an unbroken string of events followed by people rushing to declare the presidential race OVER, ALL OVER, followed by nothing fundamentally changing because this election is and will continue to be, a binary choice between ‘More Trump’ and ‘The alternative to More Trump’”

—@edburmila.bsky.social‬, Jul 16, 2024 at 5:15 PM

“FACT FOCUS: A look at false claims around the assassination attempt on former President Trump,” Melissa Goldin and David Klepper, AP News, Undated
posted by ob1quixote at 6:45 PM on July 16 [11 favorites]

“Exclusive: Four in five Americans fear country is sliding into chaos, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds,” Jason Lange, Reuters, 16 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 7:11 PM on July 16 [6 favorites]

Ok then explain why Biden is like 3-10 points behind Dem senate candidates in those polls.

If the sample is not representative, that doesn't mean it can't have its own consistent patterns, it means you can't use those patterns to draw conclusions about the broader population.

I am really curious when we started trusting polling again, there's definitely been a sentiment in this thread that whatever made them inaccurate in past years has been fixed, but like how?
posted by solotoro at 8:57 PM on July 16 [4 favorites]

Speaking of polling, it looks like there is no discernible post-shooting bounce for Trump. In fact, Morning Consult’s latest poll today shows Biden gaining a point from the previous week, narrowing Trump’s lead to a single point. (Battleground margins are still wider, but many are also within MoE.)

Ipsos poll dropped today showing Biden down 2.
posted by darkstar at 10:43 PM on July 16 [3 favorites]

There's no place for violence in politics (Nora Loreto, unfortunately on Substack)

Short piece, well worth reading.

There’s no place for violence in politics. Except the violence of writhing in a jail cell that’s so hot, the heat can kill you. Unless one of the agitated cellmates that you have in a space that is only big enough for one person kills you first.

There’s no place for violence in politics directed towards the ones wearing gloves, whose hands don’t touch the levers directly; for the ones who are above the fray; no violence in politics for the ones who play with social supports, turn anger on and off like a faucet to boost their popularity and then feign surprise when someone snaps.

There’s certainly no place for violence in politics when the one who snaps doesn’t take it out on his wife or his children or his co-workers or worshippers in a church or a mosque or a synagogue or inside of a mall or at the beach or in a park but instead, he climbs to the top of a roof and aims his rifle towards one man who symbolizes the violence inherent in the system.

posted by adrienneleigh at 11:43 PM on July 16 [22 favorites]

If the sample is not representative, that doesn't mean it can't have its own consistent patterns

The probability that all the polls are pulling biased samples that are biased in this one weird way where only the democratic presidential candidate is trailing the democrat senate candidate by a substantial amount. This bias 1) exists only for Biden 2) replicates across states and 3) replicates across time and 4) replicates across polls.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 4:52 AM on July 17 [6 favorites]

Firstly, there's no telling if that translates into actual voter behavior. Second, if the problem is with polling methodology itself, then every poll is going to have that bias baked in.

Polls used to work great because you'd call someone's home phone number, they'd pick up, and a fair number of folks would give their opinion.

But landlines are rare anymore and people have been conditioned (by robo-calls probably) not to answer unfamiliar numbers. If you watched all the 2nd chance and Champion Wildcard tournaments on Jeopardy! last season you'd have seen almost every contestant related a story about how, when they got the call, they didn't answer because they didn't recognize the number.

If most people only have a cell phone and the folks responding to your poll are only on landlines, your sample simply cannot be representative of the whole population. At best that tells that the people who answer pollsters like their democratic senators better than Biden right now and have said it will affect how they vote.

You present a good argument and it has a lot of merit, but just because of the nature of modern day polling, I don't think you can trust that conclusion very much at all. Even if the results were representative, there's no telling how that will evolve between now and election day.
posted by VTX at 6:35 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

“The polls only call landlines” is a canard, simply not true anymore.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 6:45 AM on July 17 [7 favorites]

Empress Callipygos: here's a couple of articles which may help.

What have 14 years of Tory rule done to Britain? (New Yorker)

Did that really happen? 14 years of chaotic Tory government (Guardian).
posted by Paul Slade at 7:07 AM on July 17

"The polls only call land lines" isn't what VTX was saying.

VTX was saying that the polls only GET ANSWERS FROM landlines, because most of the people with cell phones ignore incoming calls from pollsters because we can't tell who they are and think it's probably a robocall scam or a pitch for auto insurance or something. The polls are calling all numbers, but those calls are no use if no one answers.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:08 AM on July 17 [8 favorites]

Thank you Paul Slade, but I wasn't asking for help as such - I was offering a suggestion as to what someone outside the US could do to stop Trump.

But I will save those for next time someone posts a question about "how bad would a right wing rule be really" question here or elsewhere, and maybe you can do the same.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:11 AM on July 17

“Mapping the Trump Shooting” [6:11]—fern, 16 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 7:18 AM on July 17 [1 favorite]

“ VTX was saying that the polls only GET ANSWERS FROM landlines, because most of the people with cell phones ignore incoming calls from pollsters because we can't tell who they are and think it's probably a robocall scam or a pitch for auto insurance or something”

This is called differential non response and doesn’t matter too much when 1) polls are aggregated or have a large enough N and 2) when 90% of the respondents are from cell phone users (like it is in the case of the NYTimes/Siena poll)
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 7:18 AM on July 17 [3 favorites]

It doesn't matter insofar as you can still get a demographically similar mix of people -- at least after weighting, you can still get close to the "right" number of white people and black people and BA people and HS-diploma people and so on, and probably even get the crosstabs pretty close.

It does matter if the people who answer unknown numbers are systematically different from people who don't in ways that aren't accounted for by demographics. If the people who answer are more trusting or less trusting than the people who don't, etc etc etc, across demographic lines.

I am not saying that everything is rosy and that Biden is going to cruise to an easy win bc polls wrong. But the polls this whole time and especially the crosstabs have been very weird in ways that make me (a legislatures person not a behaviorist) think that something about polling has finally really *broken*. The stuff like Biden (or any Democrat) doing better with over-65s than under-40s, etc. I won't be surprised if the actual votes end up differing notably, in either direction, from the endstage-but-before-early-voting-starts polling.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 7:33 AM on July 17 [9 favorites]

Via Reddit: A short highlight clip of some of Trump’s classic calls to violence, including suggesting a “2nd Amendment” solution against Hillary Clinton.
posted by darkstar at 8:29 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

Last I heard, Silver's homebrew Substack model (essentially the old 538 model) had Biden's odds somewhere in the mid-high 20s%.

Trump went into the 2016 election at mid-high 20s% in Silver's model and won.
posted by srboisvert at 8:35 AM on July 17 [1 favorite]

The stuff like Biden (or any Democrat) doing better with over-65s than under-40s, etc.

I agree that polling feels broken, but I'm not sure if this is a great example of it. From where I'm sitting the guy feels wildly out of touch with the priorities of younger people. It stands to reason that he's far more relatable to people in his own cohort.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 8:41 AM on July 17 [2 favorites]

That would make sense for Biden doing worse-than-otherwise-expected with under-40s and Biden doing better-than-otherwise-expected with over-65s. Like, if Biden were doing 10 points worse with young people than he did in 2020, and doing 5 points better with old folks than he did in 2020. That would be no surprise.

But -- too lazy to go look it up -- I've seen polls this cycle with Trump up by a few with under-40s and Biden up by a few with over-65s. Which is just fucking weird.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 8:47 AM on July 17

I need to find the actual interview or FPP, whatever it was 'cause I clearly misremember some of the facts.

I'm still looking but I did run across this previous FPP (The Keys to the White House). It's not about methodology problems with polls but about how even accurate polls aren't predictive of election results.

Ah ha! Found the interview on 538.

A pullquote: "Cheaper polling alternatives exist, but they come with plenty of problems. “Robopolls,” which use automated scripts rather than live interviewers, often get response rates in the low to mid-single digits. Most are also prohibited by law from calling cell phones, which means huge numbers of people are excluded from their surveys."

It seems I found the article from this comment (and not an FPP on the subject as I thought).

Hope that can add some clarity to the discussion.
posted by VTX at 9:21 AM on July 17 [2 favorites]

So what I'm hearing is that polls are valid when they show Biden leading, and invalid when they show him trailing because reality is irrelevant and all that matters is the spin?

I thought the Republicans were supposed to be the anti-science reality is whatever we want it to be crowd?

Without polling WTF do you even run a campaign on? Vibes? Pure guesswork? Optimism? Unicorn farts?
posted by sotonohito at 9:29 AM on July 17 [4 favorites]

Unicorn farts for some, tiny American flags for others.
posted by Gadarene at 9:30 AM on July 17 [10 favorites]

I like election results. They tend to be telling a good story.
posted by Artw at 9:31 AM on July 17 [3 favorites]

(Not universally, see the George Latimer win, but in terms of D vs R it’s been a while since Ds haven’t overperformed. Republican policy being overwhelmingly unpopular does apparently count for something when it comes to actual votes)
posted by Artw at 9:34 AM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi appears to strongly disagree with your optimism. (As do the overwhelming majority of Democratic senators, if recent reporting is to be believed.)
posted by Gadarene at 9:38 AM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Rhaomi: "Last I heard, Silver's homebrew Substack model (essentially the old 538 model) had Biden's odds somewhere in the mid-high 20s%."

srboisvert: "Trump went into the 2016 election at mid-high 20s% in Silver's model and won."

The fact that Republicans won a game of Russian roulette with four bullets in the chamber doesn't make me particularly confident to give it a spin.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:40 AM on July 17 [6 favorites]

Artw: "I like election results. They tend to be telling a good story."

Artw: "(Not universally, see the George Latimer win, but in terms of D vs R it’s been a while since Ds haven’t overperformed. Republican policy being overwhelmingly unpopular does apparently count for something when it comes to actual votes)"

The problem here is that the polls are showing downballot Dems overperforming, even as Biden continues to trail badly. People aren't down on the party, they're down on Biden specifically, and it's almost entirely due to age and acuity concerns.
posted by Rhaomi at 9:44 AM on July 17 [3 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi appears to strongly disagree with your optimism. (As do the overwhelming majority of Democratic senators, if recent reporting is to be believed.)

Nancy Pelosi needs to retire and frankly never be heard from again, and the same is probably true with most of that set of senators.
posted by Artw at 9:45 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

538’s updated election prediction this morning still shows Biden with a small advantage.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump wins 46 times out of 100.

There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

posted by darkstar at 9:50 AM on July 17 [3 favorites]

So weird that of lot of these polling issues arose right after the debate.
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 9:57 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

They… did not?
posted by Artw at 10:17 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

Nancy Pelosi needs to retire and frankly never be heard from again, and the same is probably true with most of that set of senators.

Jesus. So Pelosi and most of the 46 Democratic senators that apparently told Fetterman they were not supportive of Biden continuing as the nominee should all retire, but Biden himself is right as rain, huh?

By the way, Adam Schiff just called publicly for Biden to drop out of the race. I guess he should retire also.
posted by Gadarene at 10:19 AM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Yes.

And frankly Biden retiring earlier in term or even pre 2020 would be preferable.
posted by Artw at 10:21 AM on July 17

FYI, there are databases of cell phone numbers.
posted by NotLost at 10:24 AM on July 17

Without polling WTF do you even run a campaign on? Vibes? Pure guesswork? Optimism? Unicorn farts?

The same things you always do, getting out the vote and hammering on the issues you think are most important? It's not like when candidates are ahead in polling they take a break. Campaigning has always had an element of vibes.

So weird that of lot of these polling issues arose right after the debate.

I am coming at this from almost completely the opposite side - like, I thought it was commonly held that polling has miscalled elections routinely since (and including) 2016, and what seems to have changed since the debate is that now a lot of people here have newly become convinced that Biden won't win, see that the polling matches that conviction (which it was doing since before they believed that), and now that it matches their new belief, they suddenly think the polling must be right after all.
posted by solotoro at 10:33 AM on July 17 [10 favorites]

Will Stancil ‪@whstancil.bsky.social‬:

Politics Knowers: “Biden’s going to lose ten points from that debate”

Polls: *nothing happens*

Politics Knowers: “Trump will gain ten points from the shooting! He’s unstoppable now!”

Polls: *nothing happens*

Politics Knowers: “If only Biden would drop out! Dems would clearly gain ten points!”

posted by tonycpsu at 10:44 AM on July 17 [14 favorites]

It's not binary either. Polls are based on statistical models and, as they say about models (all together now), "All models are wrong, some models are useful." (I guess the attribution of the full quote is debated so I'm leaving it as a thing "they" say).

Polls are wrong and have already been wrong. What's changed since 2016 (that still feels recent to me!) is that they're more wrong and less useful. It's almost always a mistake to make decisions on number, or even one kind of number since they all imperfectly measure what they claim to measure. Rather, it's the combination of all of these numbers along with some qualitative stuff (vibes are part of that, sure). One example of it in action is underwriting consumer loans (why yes, I work for a commercial bank, how'd you guess?!). Credit score, the history behind it, length of current and past employment, income stability and amounts, address history, etc. All that paints an overall picture that written credit policy has been developed to point towards "Likely to repay this load".

And like, people campaigned before phones were invented or polling was in any kind of common use.
posted by VTX at 10:44 AM on July 17 [5 favorites]

McSweeney’s: I Can’t Believe Such a Hateful, Violent Act Could Happen in the Hateful, Violent Era I’ve Created

It is a sad time in American history, folks. A crazed gunman attempted to assassinate me, Donald Trump, in an act of hatred and violence that sits in stark contrast with the political era of hatred and violence I have single-handedly created.

As a politician who’s built his entire appeal around saying deeply hateful things about anyone who opposes me, the deep-seated hatred we saw on display last Saturday evening is truly unimaginable. As a person who’s wished abhorrent violence upon reporters, protesters, political adversaries, shoplifters, and people who I just don’t like, the abhorrent violence of this weekend’s rally is difficult to comprehend.

posted by kirkaracha at 12:10 PM on July 17 [19 favorites]

solotoro No, of course people don't just take a break when they're ahead.

But the polls are really damn useful in telling campaigns where to direct their attention.

Even if we had a national popular vote you'd still want polling to see where you were weaker with your supposed base and try to bolster them and get them to vote more.

With our insane Electoral College system polling is absolutley critical to any campaign because you must know which states matter, which populations in those states matter, and which states are possibly beginning to matter.

No one is campaigning in California or New York. We all know where those votes will go, and we know that past performance is a good indicator of future events because polling backs that up.

But knowing which states are important, that is the ones where the EV could possibly go either direction, and which populations in those states are most and least likely to vote for you is really fucking critical and I am flaberghasted that I have to defend the idea of knowing what the fuck is going on instead of just doing everything by guess
posted by sotonohito at 12:42 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Problem is polling is hard now, in a way it wasn’t twenty years ago.

So campaigns need to know what’s going on, but phone-based polls may be a shit way to find out (who answers their phone these days?).

With all the data various companies have on us, you would think there’d be some more useful way to model behavior.
posted by nat at 12:47 PM on July 17 [4 favorites]

Speaking of polls, 79 percent of Democratic voters approve of Harris being the nominee if Biden steps aside, per the Economist. (link)

Also and separately, nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters think Biden should drop out of the race, per the AP. (link)
posted by Gadarene at 12:49 PM on July 17 [4 favorites]

But knowing which states are important, that is the ones where the EV could possibly go either direction, and which populations in those states are most and least likely to vote for you is really fucking critical and I am flaberghasted that I have to defend the idea of knowing what the fuck is going on instead of just doing everything by guess

But if polling hasn't been accurately telling you those things for literally years, then relying on it with no critical interpretation doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I'm honestly surprised too, because sincerely 99% of the time when I see your comments, because of the similarity of our usernames I have a beat where I think "Did I write that?" and then a second beat of "No, it's what I was thinking, but it's said with more intelligence and insight than I could muster."
posted by solotoro at 1:04 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Polling HAS been giving pretty damn accurate data. No one on the D side was taking this lulz polling is stoopid line until the polls showed Biden lagging. It's not actual rational objection to a problem with polls it's an effort to reject unpleasant reality.

Polling can't really predict the outcome of the election this far out from the actual election. Things can change. I doomsay a lot, but I don't pretend I can actually tell you who will win in November (but it'll be Trump because worst timeline).

Polling does provide a pretty good snapshot of what's going on right now though.

You're 100% correct, polling is hard. And the pros have been figuring out how to keep doing it despite shifts in phone habbits. And, it should be noted, polling was never completely reliant on phones nor did it always poll only phone havers.

It is true that back in the old days it was a bit cheaper and easier to just grab random phone numbers and have at it, but real, reputable, pollsters are doing pretty well with all the other things they've come up with.

They have a margin of error of around 4%.

When the election turns on 10,000 votes that means it may be within their margin of error, because as VTX said (though I disagree with some of their conclusion) all models are flawed but some still produce useful data.

Polls do not and never have pretened to be 100% accurate. They rely on mathematical probability and random sampling to get an estimate of things, 4% margin of error isn't bad at all really.

And even if the poll can't say with certainty who will win, they still provide value in telling you where to focus your efforts. If you depend on votes in an area where the polling is within the margin of error that means you REALLY need to focus on that area because it's a toss up and the deciding factor will be getting your voters off their asses and to the polls.

The details on how exaclty pollsters deal with the modern world and it's extreme reluctance to answer the phone are interesting, but ultimately irrelevant. All that matters is whether the polls are accruate to within their advertised margin of error. If they are, then they're working.

And... The polls were accurate in 2016. Clinton was never absolutely guaranteed victory, and the polls showed she was within margin of error in the states she lost. They showed her being up, but up within that 4% margin of error. And Comey ratfucked us with his last minute breathless presser to tell eveyrone how horrible Clinton was but he guessed he didn't have enough evidence to prove it in a court of law right this second but take his word for it she's really awful and criminal. Since polling takes time there wasn't time to get a good poll after that and before the election.
posted by sotonohito at 1:39 PM on July 17 [9 favorites]

Two-thirds of Democratic voters may want him to drop out, but that doesn't mean we expect it or won't vote for him if he doesn't. Which means he has us over a barrel. We might not like it, but we don't have the leverage. If too many people say they'll stay at home and he'll calls our bluff? No thanks.
posted by rikschell at 1:43 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Has anyone been saying that, though? Like, on this website? From what I’ve seen absolutely everyone who’s advocating Biden step down has been crystal clear that if Biden is the nominee they’ll be voting for him. It’s actually been surprising how clear people have been on that point.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 2:02 PM on July 17 [8 favorites]

Yeah, you're right. Which is why it's had no effect on him. (Sad face)
posted by rikschell at 2:07 PM on July 17

From what I’ve seen absolutely everyone who’s advocating Biden step down has been crystal clear that if Biden is the nominee they’ll be voting for him.

I think a lot of us who are voting "for Biden" are more accurately voting "against Trump". I'd vote for a bucket of paint if that was the Dem candidate, seriously.

Similarly, the biggest reason I'm kind of hoping we can drop the whole "replace Biden" thing isn't because I'm a big Biden fangirl, it's more like, the more we keep rehashing Biden's fitness for office, the less organized we might look to other voters, and the more we cement "he's not the perfect candidate" in the casual voters' minds and we run the risk of having them just stay home altogether. I've heard an expression that describes what most people tend to forget when it comes to voting - voting isn't like dating, where you're trying to find the most perfect unicorn of a candidate. Voting is like taking a bus - you're probably not going to find one that takes you exactly where you meant to go door-to-door, but you can find one taht's going to get you closer than the others.

Biden is an older-model subway car on the A train compared to an Uber. But even an A train ride is better than a tandem bike that's being steered by a drunk guy who overrides your choice of destination and takes you to the dump, picks your pocket and then leaves you there.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:25 PM on July 17 [15 favorites]

People have been complaining about polling difficulties for a while, though. Here’s a random article on it from several months ago.

4% is in fact the claimed error bar for some polls. Some claim a higher or lower error. But in this case a 4% error is occasionally huge— in AZ 4% one way and Biden wins, 4% the other and Gallego (our D senate candidate who is generally polling significantly ahead of Biden) loses.

4% up in AZ and down in GA and the resources should go to AZ to push it into the D column, but 4% down in AZ but up in GA means the opposite.

Anyhow, yeah, Bucket of Paint with a D after it, I’m on board. Sure.
posted by nat at 2:29 PM on July 17

Okay yeah, but voting "against the other guy" is basically how our voting system works. :p

I think there's a pretty good chance that Biden will retire or die in the next four years and we end up with President Harris regardless. Hopefully she'd step up and do well enough to get re-elected. It would probably play well for her to bring some "youthful energy" in taking over a hypothetically popular Biden agenda so she can claim she took up his legacy and improved on it or something.
posted by VTX at 2:33 PM on July 17

Really, if you're for or against B or T, you already know it. This is fighting for people who are all "I hate them equally" or "Meh, I don't care" or whatever...those are the people that you still need to "sell" on one or the other, I guess.
posted by jenfullmoon at 2:42 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Okay yeah, but voting "against the other guy" is basically how our voting system works. :p

nnnnah, there's a difference between "omigod Tish James is AWESOME and HELL YEAH I am voting for her for re-election" and "meh, I'm not CRAZY about Clinton, but Bush would be even worse so I'll vote D".
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:49 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Biden is an older-model subway car on the A train compared to an Uber.

J.D. Vance is obviously the Uber: exploitative, bad for society, venture capital backed.
posted by nobody at 2:52 PM on July 17 [4 favorites]

There is also turnout versus voter suppression.

Probably more importantly than any of the above.
posted by Artw at 2:52 PM on July 17 [11 favorites]

the more we keep rehashing Biden's fitness for office, the less organized we might look to other voters

Will Rogers twofer!

“I’m not a member of any organized political party…. I’m a Democrat.”

“Democrats never agree on anything, that’s why they’re Democrats. If they agreed with each other, they’d be Republicans.”
posted by kirkaracha at 2:53 PM on July 17 [3 favorites]

Hey remember the assassination attempt? That was weird how it vanished from this thread.
posted by srboisvert at 2:58 PM on July 17 [15 favorites]

sotonohito, you're misunderstanding how polling works and what the problems are

They have a margin of error of around 4%.

Yes, if the sample size is large enough and if the sample is a simple random draw from the population.

Or, rather, the sample is always a random draw from a population, but the population it's drawn from isn't necessarily the population you want. Any poll is basically a random draw from the universe of people who respond to polls, not from the universe of adult Americans or the universe of people who will in the future turn out to have voted in the 2024 election.

When the sample differs from the population you want in ways you're looking for and have very good other data about, it's only a minor problem. Maybe your sample has too many anglos and not enough black people, which you know because we have Very Good data about the racial and ethnic mix of the US and parts thereof. Then, you can just downweight anglo respondents and upweight black respondents until the sample resembles the population mix you expect from that Very Good data. You'll have to do Math afterwards and you'll end up with bigger error bars than if you'd just gotten a random draw from the actual population of interest, but it's not a big deal.

A first problem is if the sample is wrong in ways you're not looking for. This happened in 2016 where the sample essentially had too many people with BAs and not enough people with only diplomas, and they didn't poststratify on educational attainment. You can fix this by just starting to poststratify on educational attainment too.

Another, much bigger, problem is that the sample might differ from the population of interest in ways you can't easily correct for, which mostly boils down to "ways that aren't census-style demographics." The way polling has been working assumes that the kind of 45 year old anglos who respond to polls aren't meaningfully different from the kind of 45 year anglos who don't. That the latino people with only diplomas who respond to polls are basically the same as the latino people with only diplomas who don't answer polls.

If this breaks down, this means that people who respond to polls are more (or less) trusting than people who don't, or are more gullible, or more lonely, or more agreeable, or whatever (or combination of whatevers). It would be, at best, much more difficult to poststratify on agreeableness or neuroticism or loneliness or gullibility because we don't (afaik) have census-bureau scale data on those. We don't have a firm idea of what mix of agreeable and disagreeable, extraversion and introversion, gullibility and... skepticism?... we should expect from a random draw of the population, much less a subpopulation like voters.

If this kind of difference between responders and nonresponders is relevant to the poll's topic, then the poll just isn't saying very much because there's no (easy/reasonable) way to quantify the uncertainty around what the respondents said.

The polls this cycle seem (to my not-very-trained eye) to have a bunch of Weird Shit going on that makes me worry that we're seeing ways that responders differ from the larger population of nonresponders.

Of course, any time there's a poll where Democrats aren't doing well, you'll find commenters on politicalwire or tpm or whatever looking at it to find "reasons" why it's garbage, and that's mostly a silly thing to do. That's the sort of thing that gets washed out in polling aggregations or over a little time.

I'm absolutely not saying "the polls are wrong and Biden's gonna curb-stomp Trump!!1!" I'm just saying that the polls might be substantially wrong in ways we haven't had to worry about before and that we just don't know a whole hell of a lot about what voters are thinking and planning to do. Whatever the polls just before early voting starts say, I think there's a real chance that they'll be notably off in one direction *OR THE OTHER*.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:24 PM on July 17 [8 favorites]

From what I’ve seen absolutely everyone who’s advocating Biden step down has been crystal clear that if Biden is the nominee they’ll be voting for him.

I will not be voting for Biden if he is the nominee. I cannot bring myself to vote for somebody who has spent a year arming and funding genocide. I’m not going to vote for Trump, and I’m not going to vote for Biden.

I live in a solidly blue state, so it’s not like my vote counts. But it’s worth considering that there is a non-zero number of voters in swing states (particularly Michigan) who feel the same way.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 3:28 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Hey remember the assassination attempt? That was weird how it vanished from this thread.

Anecdata, but I attended a neighborhood barbecue yesterday, and the older, white, predominantly registered-as-Republican group was talking about how terrible Trump is almost uniformly. The only apparent topic of contrasting opinion was someone (Democrat) saying they wrote their representative to tell them Biden needed to step down, to someone (R) debating whether someone else would be better to beat Trump, to one elder liberal saying they were glad Biden didn't listen to the people saying he needed to step down because Biden had been an amazing president in 4 years and that he had one of the most valuable assets for the upcoming election: he was honorable and truly empathetic, really cared about people and wanted to do what he thought was best for them. And that even Republicans knew this.

Only one person (not D to my knowledge) referenced the shooting to make an off-color joke which made a few people uncomfortable.

So yeah, it was weird how it vanished from nearly everywhere really.

Admittedly, sample size is rather minuscule, but maybe cause to be optimistic?
posted by donttouchmymustache at 3:30 PM on July 17 [4 favorites]

This just in, because sure, why not? Biden just tested positive for COVID.
posted by hydrophonic at 3:32 PM on July 17 [5 favorites]

Once again, the deal with the devil continues and Biden gets covid. At this point we'll all be so fatigued at the avalanche of Biden shit and how everything Trump does...wins.

*arrrrrrrrggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh*
posted by jenfullmoon at 3:38 PM on July 17 [7 favorites]

Yeah, I just popped in to check on this thread, but I guess it's a thread about polling now?

Ok, well, I'll confess that I'm one of those weirdos who answers numbers I don't recognize - I took a political poll yesterday on my cell phone.

Also, sotonohito is correct, polls are imperfect but they aren't wrong - they are just data points, and if you get enough of them and provide a decent analysis of them (i.e. Nate Silver's model) you can get a pretty close view of things.

What often does happen though is that the average person doesn't understand how to read polls, and this includes a lot of people in the media. There is a lot of bad analysis also, I'd say, since people who are wonks tend to bad at qualitative analysis. Nate Silver had Trump's chances in 2016 at 30%, which a lot of people interpreted as, "wow, 70% is much bigger than 30%, so Clinton must have this in the bag!" But Silver was always pretty clear - sure, odds are in her favor, but if an amusement park ride had a 30% chance of death, that's not a ride that would draw a long line. It is true that the polls in 2016 were a bit more off than normal (even if often still technically within their margin of error) for reasons that pollsters failed to predict (the shy Trump voters, etc.) But they weren't as "wrong" as most people think - what was really off was how most people in the media interpreted them.

Likewise, the polls in 2022 never showed a red wave. Some wonks predicted this because Biden's approval rating was low, the economy was floundering, etc. These factors predicted a good environment for Republicans. But polls for individual races suggested the Democrats outperforming expectations, despite those factors. There were some analysts at the time suggested that other analysts were overlooking how much lingering anger towards Trump and Trumpian candidates existed, and they were right.

Currently, I agree that the polls currently show a close race, though with Biden clearly struggling - this was true before the debate and it remains true. Still, yes, he's in the margin of error in enough battleground states that I certainly don't think it's impossible for him to win - if, and this is a big if, things don't get worse for him. And that's sorta the problem - it's hard for me to imagine a future where he magically starts to appear younger and more energetic, better able to sell is platform and take on Trump, better able to connect to young voters, where he does well in the next debate, etc. It's a lot easier for me to imagine Harris doing better though.

The polls this cycle seem (to my not-very-trained eye) to have a bunch of Weird Shit going on

Genuinely curious - what seems weird about it?
posted by coffeecat at 3:46 PM on July 17 [4 favorites]

Weird crosstabs like I mentioned before. It's not the only weird thing I've seen but honestly like on a lot of things I mostly just use a running tally -- I move my "weird shit" slider up or down as I happen to see polls and people talking about polls but don't generally remember the why a week later.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 3:58 PM on July 17

Does no-one remember the unskew the polls guy from the 2012 US election?
posted by Rumple at 4:02 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Apparently Chuck Schumer is also among those who needs to retire, as he told Biden on Saturday that he should withdraw from the race.

Pretty silly of all these politicians to be caring about polls that are clearly wrong!
posted by Gadarene at 4:03 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

This just in, because sure, why not? Biden just tested positive for COVID.

Recently: Biden says he would drop out of 2024 race if diagnosed with medical condition

This could be the exit ramp.
posted by kirkaracha at 4:22 PM on July 17 [6 favorites]

Posted in other thread but:
≈ ≈ ≈   BIDEN • COVID '24   ≈ ≈ ≈
vote like you're voting for Covid!
Because why not already.
posted by mazola at 4:49 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Apparently Chuck Schumer is also among those who needs to retire

About fucking time.
posted by Artw at 6:18 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

“The private conversations with the Hill are continuing,” a senior Democratic adviser told CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid alienating the campaign and the White House. “He’s being receptive. Not as defiant as he is publicly.”

“He’s gone from saying, ‘Kamala can’t win,’ to ‘Do you think Kamala can win? “ the adviser said. “It’s still unclear where he’s going to land but seems to be listening.
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:38 PM on July 17 [5 favorites]

Maybe i'm just still mad from the things i saw in 2020, maybe i've just gone mad, but i'm left asking... why not match these peoples energy? Why is everyone still on some "they go low, we go high?" crap?

From the pulled ads, to things all around us like the Jack Black situation... why is everyone rushing to "do the right thing" here instead of point and laugh like they would? This is honestly, kind of pathetic.

They, and he, pushed this to this level and this place and normalized this sort of thing. Every car ran through a protest and other act of "political violence" that led up to this was cheered on by them.

Why do we have to be better than pointing and laughing, or even cheering this on? It feels like everyone has given in to "you can't have a fight without two fighters" anti bullying workshop shit from middle school.

The snake is eating its own tail and i'm supposed to be the bigger person?
posted by emptythought at 7:15 PM on July 17 [10 favorites]

in my experience, the means are the ends. If you resort to savage shit to achieve your ends (however lofty they may seem on paper), you're going to end up with savagery.

Which doesn't mean you have to be nice ...
posted by philip-random at 7:32 PM on July 17 [6 favorites]

Thomas Matthew Crooks, the suspected gunman in the assassination attempt on Donald Trump last Saturday, searched on his phone for the dates of the former president’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, and for dates of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, sources familiar with the investigation told ABC News.

Crooks also searched on his phone for images of both the former president and current president, sources said.

The suspect’s phone search history revealed no indication of his political views.

posted by srboisvert at 7:49 PM on July 17 [3 favorites]

It's wild to me that it appears that this kid basically did have much of a plan, didn't event particularly care who he tried to assassinate, and managed to come pretty close to pulling off an assassination. Hard not to imagine some unhinged people aren't going to respond by thinking "Huh, I guess it's not that hard."
posted by coffeecat at 8:00 PM on July 17 [9 favorites]

I just can’t believe that a 20 year old didn’t leave more of a digital trail than the authorities are acknowledging. Either they had some surprisingly competent op-sec and it’s going to take some time to figure it out, or the authorities are just keeping mum for whatever reason.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 8:10 PM on July 17 [2 favorites]

Maybe he was just private but extremely lonely yet unwilling to reach out? Not every 20yo is a "typical 20yo."
posted by porpoise at 8:27 PM on July 17 [7 favorites]

Either they had some surprisingly competent op-sec and it’s going to take some time to figure it out, or the authorities are just keeping mum for whatever reason.

I work with digital forensic experts. Digital forensic investigations take time - there will likely be more devices to inspect, and a lot of data within them to go through. These kinds of investigations aren't completed in three or four days.

They seem to be specifically talking about the phone he had on him when he was killed - it may have been a burner. He may have had a laptop or tablet, or a second phone. He may have a massive online footprint which they can't just access without usernames and passwords locked in a password manager, or subpoenas to the platforms.
posted by His thoughts were red thoughts at 8:30 PM on July 17 [8 favorites]

I just can’t believe that a 20 year old didn’t leave more of a digital trail

I mean, maybe I'm biased because I know some people who, besides from their Google history, aren't online - admittedly, my friend circle is in their late 30s, but still, having taught college students, there is still a large range of how "online" Gen Z is - so him not leaving much of a trail of his interiority doesn't strike me as the strangest part of this story .
posted by coffeecat at 8:38 PM on July 17 [9 favorites]

NYTimes reporting: "And, at least once, his browsing history signaled concerns about his own mental state. He also seems to have previewed his attack on Steam, a gaming platform he frequented, telling fellow gamers he planned to make his “premiere” on July 13, the day of the shooting....Officials singled out some of the searches on one of his cellphones, saying that he had looked up “major depressive disorder."
posted by coffeecat at 9:13 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

Kevin M. Kruse ‪(@kevinmkruse.bsky.social‬):

So it *wasn’t* the campaign rhetoric?

Wow, can’t wait for all those retractions to come rolling in from the pundits and editorial boards who insisted it was

posted by tonycpsu at 9:25 PM on July 17 [10 favorites]

and pin it on reagan...
posted by kliuless at 10:05 PM on July 17 [1 favorite]

WSJ gift link says cops saw him acting unusual before he got on the roof, but then lost him:

Trump Gunman Identified as Suspicious Well Before Shooting

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R., Okla.) said gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks was identified as suspicious around 5 p.m., more than an hour before the shooting. “They said that he had a backpack and what they classified as a range finder,” Mullin said.

“They did lose him,” Mullin said, “because they said they were actively looking for him for 19 minutes before the shots rang out.”

...Lawmakers also were told Crooks had scouted the rally site multiple times in advance—and that a motive remained unclear...

Mullin said lawmakers were told Crooks “hated politicians as a whole.” Another senator said they were told the gunman had done internet searches on Trump and President Biden as well as the Democratic National Convention. Crooks used several encrypted platforms that officials haven’t been able to access, another person familiar with the briefing said.

Article also includes bystander video of cops trying to get to the building that I hadn't seen before.
posted by mediareport at 3:11 AM on July 18 [2 favorites]

WaPo gift link says Secret Service was told local cops didn't have the manpower to monitor the building in question:

Secret Service was told police could not watch building used by Trump rally shooter

Local police alerted the Secret Service before former president Donald Trump’s rally Saturday that they lacked the resources to station a patrol car outside a key building where a gunman later positioned himself and shot at Trump, according to local and federal law enforcement.

Richard Goldinger, the district attorney in Butler County, Pa., where the Trump rally took place, said the Secret Service “was informed that the local police department did not have manpower to assist with securing that building.”

Article also includes a lot more detail about a countersniper expert who flagged Crook three times to supervisors before the shooting.
posted by mediareport at 3:20 AM on July 18 [4 favorites]

(It was a local countersniper officer, not expert, sorry)
posted by mediareport at 3:25 AM on July 18 [1 favorite]

Another WaPo gift link to an article from Tuesday night with illustrations based on 3-D modeling and more detail about the crucial moments around the shooting. It shows the slopes of the various roofs, and I noticed the slopes of the roofs with SS sniper teams were steeper than the roof the shooter was on, which may be an issue when SS head Cheatle appears before Congress, given this from the other WaPo article just above:

She also said they made the decision to keep officers off the sloped roof because the incline presented a safety issue.

“The decision was made to secure the building from inside,” Cheatle told ABC News.
posted by mediareport at 3:52 AM on July 18 [1 favorite]

there's a difference between "omigod Tish James is AWESOME and HELL YEAH I am voting for her for re-election" and "meh, I'm not CRAZY about Clinton, but Bush would be even worse so I'll vote D".

There's no difference in the outcome. The difference is completely emotional and subjective. The outcome is what matters for everyone. I'd say it's rare to nonexistent that I run to the polls with deep enthusiasm for every candidate. That's not the point of the exercise, it's a nice enhacement to the process when it happens.

I cannot bring myself to vote for somebody who has spent a year arming and funding genocide....

For a few minutes, play forward how things are likely to go in Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Tukey, the Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan - let alone here - under a Trump presidency in which the US basically becomes a foreign policy vehicle for Russia. I think we'll have plenty of genocide for you then. And think, too, how these stories of personal moral purity and staying above the fray will play to the dead, disenfranchised, and incarcerated.

Every vote counts. Not only that, everything we say about out votes count. We can't afford this talk of "my vote doesn't matter because..." - all that does is weigh in on the side of discrediting elections, reducing confidence in the elections process, and laying the groundwork for a contested result to seem plausible. Yeah, this system has problems and I'd love to get to them in a future democratic state where we have some influence. The choice facing us right now is between that future democratic state, and total demagoguery in which we can kiss dreams of electoral fairness and peaceable global policies goodbye. It's 1939. No choice is neutral.
posted by Miko at 5:54 AM on July 18 [32 favorites]

Article also includes a lot more detail about a countersniper expert who flagged Crook three times to supervisors before the shooting.

He’s just like a regular mass shooter!
posted by Artw at 6:17 AM on July 18 [2 favorites]

There's no difference in the outcome. The difference is completely emotional and subjective. The outcome is what matters for everyone. I'd say it's rare to nonexistent that I run to the polls with deep enthusiasm for every candidate. That's not the point of the exercise, it's a nice enhacement to the process when it happens.

I feel like at this point being deontological in not voting for Biden is just an extension of white privilege.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:33 AM on July 18 [11 favorites]

Every vote counts.

Eh. Deeply fucked electoral college system, that’s highly debatable in the presidential election for most states

(You should vote in every election even in those states because if you dint right wingers will sneak up behind you and knife you on the down ballot shit.)

Not only that, everything we say about out votes count.

Suspect this is actually what people are yelling about when they yell about voting on MeFi.

Though I must say it’s been weird seeing a bunch of people here and elsewhere go from “you can’t say shit about Biden and genocide, Trump will be so much worse!” to “look at him! He’s dying! Bits are falling off! He’s basically a walking corpse! We are all utterly doomed”.
posted by Artw at 6:34 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

Though I must say it’s been weird seeing a bunch of people here and elsewhere go from “you can’t say shit about Biden and genocide, Trump will be so much worse!” to “look at him! He’s dying! Bits are falling off! He’s basically a walking corpse! We are all utterly doomed”.

Look, I don't know anyone with a brain and a conscience can get through the first dozen numbered pages of Project 2025's Mandate for Leadership and not come away with the resolve to vote even a ham sandwich in as President as a bulwark against that Christian Nationalist insanity.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:44 AM on July 18 [15 favorites]

> For a few minutes, play forward how things are likely to go in Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Tukey, the Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan - let alone here - under a Trump presidency in which the US basically becomes a foreign policy vehicle for Russia.

-Trump Wasn't Going to Do 'a Fucking Thing' If China Invaded Taiwan, a New Book Says
-China Says the U.S. Could Abandon Taiwan if Trump Wins the Presidency

Trump's Taiwan Comments Caused a Selloff in Chips. The Real Risk Is a Global Depression. - "There's no way to know if Trump's latest comments are political bluster or the framework of future policy. But risking a full blown depression, no matter how small the probability, is something every executive, every investor, and every American needs to be thinking about right now."

The worries escalated Wednesday after Trump declined to provide assurances that the U.S. would protect Taiwan against Chinese aggression if he’s elected president.

“They did take about 100% of our chip business,” Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview published on Tuesday.[1] “Taiwan should pay us for defense.”

“I wouldn’t feel so secure right now if I were them,” he added.

posted by kliuless at 6:50 AM on July 18 [10 favorites]

Politics Knowers: “Trump will gain ten points from the shooting! He’s unstoppable now!”

Polls: *nothing happens*

It is weird for Republicans to arrogantly count on a sympathy bump based on an assassination narrative which usually sees the corrupt party taking out the underdog challenger, as it happens everywhere, not the local kid taking out the main bully (but missing the shot). In an upside-down world count on the opposite effect. Trump has gained popularity in the wake of mass shootings on helpless crowds and classrooms, mostly done by his deranged admirers.

Secret Service was told police could not watch building used by Trump rally shooter Archived
posted by Brian B. at 7:33 AM on July 18 [2 favorites]

I'm guessing venues are chosen because they are cheap, available ( I mean how many places just say no because they know they won't get paid?), meet market goals and are at least nominally securable. But they so often seem to be vulnerable to rifle and drone attacks.

Adding more bleachers, which admittedly Trump can't fill, to block the view would have eliminated this threat. They managed to procure the two cranes (to hang a suspended load over a crowd including the Trump FFS) but couldn't get some hording to block a sniper view?

Obviously the plan is security in depth and not all measures are going to be visible but man there seem to be big glaring holes a lot of the time.
posted by Mitheral at 7:57 AM on July 18 [2 favorites]

> the polls in 2022 never showed a red wave. Some wonks predicted this because Biden's approval rating was low, the economy was floundering

All Employees, Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS)

the right's message machine was certainly saying the economy was bad in 2022, but it wasn't.

What was happening in 2022 was people had a lot of money so corporations were raising their prices to match.
posted by torokunai at 8:45 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

Every vote counts.

Eh. Deeply fucked electoral college system, that’s highly debatable in the presidential election for most states

takes a deep breath, remembers the mantra:

Given our deeply fucked democratic processes, I will always vote for whoever I feel has the best chance of beating who I fear the most. This takes care of election day. As for every other day, this is when I get active in whatever way I can. This is when I get to go after what I really want.
posted by philip-random at 8:46 AM on July 18 [14 favorites]

It’s a weird dumb lie for the purpose of vibe policing and we’d be better of focusing on material reality.
posted by Artw at 9:04 AM on July 18

Every vote counts. This is just factually incorrect. I live in California. My presidential vote absolutely does not count. (Local elections do). I vote because it costs me nothing and (in my case as a California resident) local elections impact people's lives. But just saying that my vote for Biden 'counts' is just not in any way accurate in terms of the outcome of this race.

Not only that, everything we say about out votes count.
I can see your argument and perhaps this is true - though unknowable. We also don't really know how our statements on the internet impact election outcomes. And there's also lots of room for interpretation on what that means for action. Should we only ever say Rah Rah Rah about the Democratic nominee? Even for a dyed in the wool Democrat - how would we ever have the ability to impact the strategies or ideology of the Democratic Party if we don't question their choices when it actually matters?

There is an obvious difference between Trump and Biden so because I'm not an asshole or a fool, I want the Democrats to win (of the two choices). But the need for a radical overhaul of this current system and our two existing options should be self-evident at this point (IMHO). Democrats have enacted regressive, racist, sexist policies (welfare 'reform', drone executions, expanding the military, forever wars, black-site prisons, expansion of ICE, climate denialism, increasing privatization, etc etc) for my entire life. So yeah, I can contain the two realities that BIden and the Democratcs suck and also I would rather he wins. But my substantial organizing energies don't go into elections and I'm not going to be part of the fiction that the electoral college doesn't exist and I'm not going to let Biden, the Democrats, the US electoral system, capitalism, etc off the hook in some magical thinking that doing so will defeat Trump.
posted by latkes at 9:14 AM on July 18 [9 favorites]

miko I can't speak for the person you were replying to re: enthusiasm, but I strongly suspect they meant that enthusiasm gets out more votes because non-enthusiasm is more prone to people just being apathetic.

It's not that enthusiastic votes count more, it's that enthusiastic voters are more likely to vote.

People on this thread are an anamoly, we're all deeply into politics and vote every time. The average apathetic schlub gets off their ass to vote only if goaded by something, that can be anger/fear, as we saw in 2020 with voters going out to vote against Trump, or it can be enthusiasm because they really do like the candidate or policy they're voting for.

Running bland candidates with the charisma of wet cardboard who tell us that nothing will fundamentally change and that better things aren't possible, while also supporting war crimes, genocide, opposing meaningful reform, and so on is not the vote getter that most people in positions of power among the Democrats seem to think it is.

The Democrats seem to be pinnig their hope on fear/hate towards Trump becasue they know perfectly well they can't get many people enthused about Biden.

Which, to bring it back to the topic, is why I worry about the shooting helping the Republicans since it provides a goad for their own apathetic voters (ZOMG those evil liberal scumbags tried to kill Trump!!!!)
posted by sotonohito at 9:31 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

A fundamental basis of support for the argument to reform the Electoral College is its failure to reflect the will of the majority of voters. In that sense, every vote counts whether you live in a swing state or not.
posted by Press Butt.on to Check at 9:32 AM on July 18 [7 favorites]

And even within people who will indeed vote blue no matter who, enthusiasm matters in terms of how likely that category of people are to volunteer their time to various get out the vote efforts. In some political thread (they are all bleeding together), one user mentioned that with Biden on the ticket, they'd vote for him, but they knew they couldn't convincingly put forth an argument for other people - along the lines of, 'you don't want me knocking on doors for someone I loathe.' I myself had a similar trajectory - I'm in a swing state (though one that went for Trump in 2016 and 2020), with some important state and local elections too, and so I contacted Swing Left earlier this year, and the one option they offered me was to train to be a lead-organizer for my city, and I seriously considered it but then there was more news out from Gaza and Biden's inaction, and I decided I didn't have the energy to be lead-organizer given who was on top of the ticket. Would my calculus have been different if a competitive primary had been going on? Yes.

Anyway, back to the FPP: the Steam profile is now being reported as a fake, so we're back to the shooter just being a random young guy who hated politicians and loved guns, and provided few warning signs.
posted by coffeecat at 9:50 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

A fundamental basis of support for the argument to reform the Electoral College is its failure to reflect the will of the majority of voters. In that sense, every vote counts whether you live in a swing state or not.
posted by Press Butt.on to Check 20 minutes ago [3 favorites +] [⚑]

I'm sorry but in what sense does my vote "count" because the electoral college does not reflect the will of the people? Do you mean in a symbolic sense? When I see the word "count" I assume that to mean my vote has a material impact on the world. The fact that two recent presidential elections have been decided by the electoral college in opposition to the majority will has had no impact on changing the current system. Democrats have not prioritized electoral college reform even though they would benefit from such reform. So how specifically does a Californian's presidential vote for the Democratic candidate "count"?
posted by latkes at 10:03 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

My vote in California counts to demoralize the reactionary minority still here. Not here, not now, not any more, mothafuckas.
posted by torokunai at 10:15 AM on July 18 [12 favorites]

Mod note: One comment deleted. Let's avoid shutting down other people's questions. Let's allow others to express themselves.
posted by loup (staff) at 10:33 AM on July 18 [2 favorites]

the right's message machine was certainly saying the economy was bad in 2022, but it wasn't.

Pretty much across the board, people believe the US economy is worse than it is. Yesterday's GDPNow estimate is at 2.7% while the Bluechip consensus (a survey of "forecasts from 50-plus economists employed by some of America's largest and most respected manufacturers, banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms") is at 1.9. Every one of those Fednow vs bluechip charts I've ever seen shows the bluechips as pessimistic.

You can tell similar stories with consumer sentiment, etc. I seem to recall the best predictor of sentiment isn't the whole economy but the price of gasoline...
posted by pwnguin at 11:07 AM on July 18 [3 favorites]

I'm sorry but in what sense does my vote "count" because the electoral college does not reflect the will of the people?

Every vote counts in the literal sense that, barring actual electoral fraud, every vote counts. If any particular abstract vote results in a 51-49 split, and the 51 is declared the winner, that doesn't mean that the other 49 just "don't count". The same is true for an 80-20 split. Every vote matters within its own electoral context.

That's not to say that "winner take all' is a particularly fair system, let alone our fucked up electoral college system. But votes matter, and trends matter - if a vote in a particular election goes 70-30, but the next election in the same district is 65-35... same end result, but the trends are noted. More effort will be put into keeping it going (or shutting it down, from the other side). It's an ongoing, never ending tug of war, not a single sprint (to mix metaphors). And regarding the electoral college, the greater the difference that grows between the popular vote and the electoral result, the more pressure there is on changing the system. It won't happen overnight! But it won't happen at all if everyone just assumes it'll never change and gives up.
posted by Roommate at 11:08 AM on July 18 [6 favorites]

States Where Individual Votes Have More Influence (More Electoral Votes Per Capita)

Wyoming - 1 electoral vote per 192,000 people
Vermont - 1 electoral vote per 213,000 people
District of Columbia - 1 electoral vote per 218,000 people
Alaska - 1 electoral vote per 250,000 people
North Dakota - 1 electoral vote per 250,000 people
South Dakota - 1 electoral vote per 270,000 people
Delaware - 1 electoral vote per 325,000 people
Rhode Island - 1 electoral vote per 528,000 people
Montana - 1 electoral vote per 370,000 people
New Hampshire - 1 electoral vote per 540,000 people

States Where Individual Votes Have Less Influence (Fewer Electoral Votes Per Capita)

California - 1 electoral vote per 722,000 people
Texas - 1 electoral vote per 747,000 people
Florida - 1 electoral vote per 716,000 people
New York - 1 electoral vote per 709,000 people
Illinois - 1 electoral vote per 666,000 people
posted by Omon Ra at 11:22 AM on July 18 [6 favorites]

pwnguin

I'd say it's more a matter of rent and prices in general being higher all of a sudden.

sure, you can say "well your paycheck grew too" and maybe that's even true, but it still feels bad to people when they're paying a lot more, suddenly, for stuff they were used to paying a lot less for.

Since I try to believe in science I will accept on an intellectual level that the economy is better, and even that most working people have seen an increase in disposable income.

But I don't FEEL that way at all. I feel like I've gotten the short end of the stick and the economy sucks major ass. I FEEL like I'm paying a fuckton more and getting less for it. I FEEL like my rent is a bigger bite out of my paycheck than it once was.

And I'm one of the people who will, grudgingly, say my feelings are probably wrong since all the people who really know what they're talking about and the numbers themselves say that things are better. But the average low information voter is probably going to go with their feelings and believe the experts are lying to them. I FEEL like the experts are lying to me, even though I know it's not true.

Partially I'd also say this is due to the fact that "the economy" when talked about by politicians usually mean "rich people's yacht money" and we're all used to seeing people talk about how great the economy is while our lives suck. So when yet again I feel like I'm not getting as much and the experts say "well, acktuallllyyyyy, you're doing a lot bettter" I can see why people are inclined to think the experts are just bullshitting them.

So yeah, I don't think Biden can win on the economy and I think that even trying is going to make many people angry because they'll feel like he's playing them for fools. It feels like Big Brother announcing that the chocolate ration has increased from five grams a week to two grams a week.

Maybe people rationally know that "getting inflation under control" doesn't actually mean "prices drop to what you think of as normal levels again", but our guts tell us that's what it should mean.

Roommate When I say my votes doesn't count in the Presidential election I mean that it literally does not count.

There are 538 votes that count, those of the Electoral College members. My vote is thrown away and has no influence of any sort whatsoever on the final outcome of the Presidential election because I live in Texas and it is 100% certain that the Electoral College votes will go to Republican electors.

In a national popular vote my vote would matter, I'd be one more pebble on the scale for my favored candidate.

My vote matters in the decision on who will be the Senators from Texas, or the representative of my district. I'm grumpy because my favored candidate will loose, but my vote actually is COUNTED in a very real and literal sense in the final tally of votes for the Senate and House races. Even if my favored candidate loses I can't say I'm denied the right to truly participate.

While technically no one's vote actually counts, people in swing states are at least a pebble on a scale that can be tipped either way. You can't say that of people in most of the USA.
posted by sotonohito at 11:49 AM on July 18 [5 favorites]

They said that he had a backpack and what they classified as a range finder

Where was his rifle? Does an AR-15 fit inside a backpack?
posted by kirkaracha at 12:15 PM on July 18

> Does an AR-15 fit inside a backpack

maybe with a folding stock you could fit one in, with a bit poking out the top. it was an “ar 15” like rifle, so no idea how long it was
posted by dis_integration at 12:23 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

My vote is thrown away and has no influence of any sort whatsoever on the final outcome of the Presidential election because I live in Texas and it is 100% certain that the Electoral College votes will go to Republican electors.
[...]
My vote matters in the decision on who will be the Senators from Texas, or the representative of my district.

Your vote for President affects who the electors of Texas select for President as much as your vote for Senator or Representative affects that outcome. (Which, true, is not the same effect on the final Presidential decision as a "one person one vote" outcome like Senator or Rep. But it's not nothing).

I live in South Carolina, believe me, I have no illusions that my vote will be the one that tips my state blue. But I will make damn sure my vote is included in the final tally, every time, regardless.
posted by Roommate at 12:25 PM on July 18 [11 favorites]

They said that he had a backpack and what they classified as a range finder

Where was his rifle?

In his car, if not his backpack. The barrel had to be at least 16" (with an overall length of at least 26") to avoid Federal regulation as a short barreled rifle, which hasn't been mentioned in the coverage of its purchase by the shooter's dad. That's unfolded. PA law doesn't restrict folding (or telescoping, etc) stocks.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:35 PM on July 18 [3 favorites]

I'm one of the people who will, grudgingly, say my feelings are probably wrong since all the people who really know what they're talking about and the numbers themselves say that things are better.

Except the science isn’t really talking about if things are actually better and people are getting less fucked by “death of a thousand cuts” price increases and fees. “The economy is good” doesn’t mean things are better for individuals, it means more money is moving around. That isn’t always good for people like you and me.
posted by corb at 12:45 PM on July 18 [5 favorites]

(It's theoretically possible that the gun could have had a shorter barrel and avoided registration as a SBR if the 'stock' was actually an 'arm brace,' making the gun a pistol for the purposes of federal regulation. Or, the shooter could have modified it illegally.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 1:00 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

But just saying that my vote for Biden 'counts' is just not in any way accurate in terms of the outcome of this race.

In normal times I would (mostly) agree with you. However, I'm the current situation where a person who previously attempted a coup is one of the candidates, there is value in running up the score against that candidate as a statement that none of us will tolerate those who attempt to overthrow the government, even if the government itself can't or won't protect itself.

To me, at least, allowing that kind of thing to be normalized is even worse than allowing political violence to be normalized. A successful coup means none of our votes ever matter, no matter where we live or what side we're on. Our priorities will be rendered meaningless. We may not get everything we want now, but we do sometimes get at least some of what we want, or at least make things a little less shit.

Case in point, the FCC just passed a new rule capping the presently exorbitant fees for calls from jails and prisons. It's not much, but it makes a real difference to incarcerated people and their families, making it a bit more likely that family connections can be maintained, which has been shown to reduce recidivism. Last time they tried, it was struck down by the courts, but Congress passed a law, the FCC went through the process, and things will be getting just that little bit better soon.
posted by wierdo at 1:22 PM on July 18 [12 favorites]

Except the science isn’t really talking about if things are actually better and people are getting less fucked by “death of a thousand cuts” price increases and fees. “The economy is good” doesn’t mean things are better for individuals, it means more money is moving around. That isn’t always good for people like you and me.

By every indicator the economy is about as strong as it gets. We’re basically at full employment. The problem is the benefits for us mere mortals is only obtained when we go out into the market for price discovery. No business gives CoL raises without severe arm twisting. Unions used to do that but they’re mostly absent from private employment these days. Instead it shows up in adverts for higher hourly rates hoping the existing employees don’t discover the new person’s rate because the labor budget is barely enough to keep the store open.

We need a better way to get economic benefits to people absent the trauma of having to switch jobs completely. It’s why Republicans turn minimum wage hikes into shitfights and why it hasn’t been changed since Obama. If the executive could dictate the minimum wage going up because shit’s going good it’d be straight up obvious to a lot of people.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:51 PM on July 18 [4 favorites]

Re: the economy - it’s kind of a tough one for Biden to play. He has to call attention to the successes that are happening because he can’t just stay silent. But if he were to say “prices are way too high, inflation is out of control, things are bad” then the attack ads are going to write themselves. A perfect storm hit over the last few years, and the economy has weathered it about as well as possible. You have the lingering effects of the Covid stimulus (I don’t wanna hear squat about Biden firing up the money printer when Trump was putting several trillion dollars into the markets and handing out free PPP loans with zero accountability.) There was wage inflation due in no small part to hundreds of thousands of dead workers and more with debilitating illness. There was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which really spiked energy markets. There was also the supply chain issues that created a lot of scarcity. All in all, the fact that we haven’t had a major recession yet (I do think one is coming, though) is remarkable.

Basically right now if you make decent money and have a stock portfolio, the economy is good. If you make bad to OK money, the economy is tough. 401k accounts are doing really well right now, but that doesn’t change the fact that rent has gone up a ton, nearly double in some places, and that affects a lot of people very negatively. I don’t see us fixing that without a massive revamp of the tax code that punishes hoarding massive wealth. I will say I work with companies that cater to upper class clients, and right now they’re not spending anywhere near like they were before.
posted by azpenguin at 2:22 PM on July 18 [6 favorites]

corb Quite true, which is why I went on to note that the expert consensus, as well as the even layman understandbale data, shows an increase in disposable income for working people.

I don't feel that at all. But either the numbers are wrong, or my intuition is wrong and I'm betting it's my intuition.

Your Childhood Pet Rock As always, this article is relevant: The Gervais Principle. The core of the argument is that the workplace is divided into three categories of people:

Sociopaths - the people with the shark mentality who job hop as a matter of course and have absolutely no loyalty to the institution. They are all about the high risk high reward stuff and shifting the risk to scapegoats if at all possible.

Losers - You and me. The people who lack either the skill, attitude, or willingness to be a sociopath and have recognized the system to be callously indifferent to us so we also job hop and feel no loyalty to the institution at all.

Clueless - The only group who really believes in the institution, they tend to stay on one job, hit middle management or even the lower echelons of upper management, and are the scapegoat of choice for sociopaths. Often a "promotion" is shifting them into a position to take the blame for a sociopath's risks. They are clueless becaue they truly believe that the institution cares about them and will reward loyalty.

I'm a loser and see no reason to ever think the company is anything but a soulless machine that would fire me the nanosecond it becomes cheaper to fire me than keep me on. So I have no loyalty and will hop to a new job to get better pay. Anyone expecting raises to keep up with inflation, much less truly increase their buying power, is a fool.
posted by sotonohito at 2:32 PM on July 18 [3 favorites]

If you make bad to OK money, the economy is tough.

Which is to say, most people. Politicians can brag about market indicators and jobs numbers all they want, but the reality is that people are increasingly rent-burdened, unable to buy a home, and saddled with student and medical debt. The job market might be doing great, but "having a job" isn't the same proxy for financial stability that it used to be, because those jobs do not pay well enough and aren't providing sufficient health coverage. Some of those jobs are second and third jobs. Others have gone to people who are well past retirement age but cannot afford to retire.

And that's why when I hear people try to sell me on the idea that the economy is doing better than ever it feels like gaslighting. Abstract figures are not nearly as important as what people are actually experiencing in practice, but the folks in office seem to be so far removed from struggles of everyday people that they can comfortably live in denial.
posted by evidenceofabsence at 3:14 PM on July 18 [14 favorites]

Following up on some of the Nate Silver vs. new FiveThirtyEight discourse upthread:

Nate Silver: Why I don't buy 538's new election model
It barely pays attention to the polls. And its results just don't make a lot of sense.

I thought the 538 model seemed basically reasonable when it was first published in June, showing the race as a toss-up. But its behavior since the debate — Biden has actually gained ground in their forecast over the past few weeks even though their polling average has moved toward Trump by 2 points! — raises a lot of questions. This may be by design — Morris seems to believe it’s too early to really look at the polls at all. But If my model was behaving like this, I’d be concerned.

Moreover, some of the internal workings of the model are strange, or at least appear that way based on the information Morris has made publicly available. [...]

538 projects Trump to lead the polling average by 2.7 points in Wisconsin on Election Day. And it thinks the fundamentals basically show a tie (Biden ahead, but by only 0.2 points). And yet somehow, it predicts Biden to win by 1.3 points in their “full forecast”. This doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Reminds me of the absurd "model" the right-wing RealClearPolitics used to wishcast a GOP Senate majority in 2022.
posted by Rhaomi at 3:48 PM on July 18 [4 favorites]

Does an AR-15 fit inside a backpack

Yes, ish. Folding stocks are rare for AR style rifles, but two take-down pins allow the upper and lower half to separate and reassemble easily. The longer upper half is about 24" for a 16" barrel with a small muzzle device. As snuffleupagus notes, a short barrel rifle or "AR pistol" would reduce that further. Conjecture, but I think the authorities would have mentioned it if that were the case.
posted by l.t.smash at 3:49 PM on July 18 [2 favorites]

Unless we've seen pictures of the backpack, there's also the possibility of getting fancier with it, rather than the gun. Which has to fit diagonally.
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:00 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

which is why I went on to note that the expert consensus, as well as the even layman understandbale data, shows an increase in disposable income for working people.

I don't feel that at all. But either the numbers are wrong, or my intuition is wrong and I'm betting it's my intuition.

The issue is that the way that you measure things matters, and the way that the experts measure disposable personal income is not the way that people describe disposable income. Experts measure disposable income by income minus social insurance; what people *mean* when they talk about their disposable income is income minus all regular/necessary expenses. So in the former measurement, disposable income rises if income rises more than social insurance does regardless of whether or not expenses rise, but in the second, if the expenses rise more than the rise in income, then the disposable income is not rising.
posted by corb at 4:08 PM on July 18 [3 favorites]

John Hinckley on Twitter Hawking his own cat paintings is the epitome of surreal.
posted by clavdivs at 4:30 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

At a minimum length of 26" there are lots of backpacks that it would fit without even being diagonal. This one is 28" for example.
posted by Mitheral at 4:34 PM on July 18

The job market might be doing great, but "having a job" isn't the same proxy for financial stability that it used to be, because those jobs do not pay well enough

Since the pandemic, wage growth has been consistently higher for those with lower educational attainment. The gap has been closing of late, however, though wage growth for the lowest quartile of workers is still running well above what it was pre-pandemic.

Personally, this shit has been eating my lunch given that my hourly rate hasn't increased in 6 years, my SO hasn't gone back to work since the pandemic, and my rent is up 50% in the past 3, but I'm not going to sit here and claim the data must be wrong because I happen to be in a particularly rough spot compared to most people.
posted by wierdo at 4:56 PM on July 18 [2 favorites]

You vote does count for something even if it doesn't influence the outcome. Both parties pay a lot of attention to who votes in which districts and what the demographics are there to shape their agenda. If your voting district is predominantly 30-somethings with moderate incomes but no one votes while the next district over is mostly old white democrats and everyone in the district votes in every election, then the party is going to pay a little more attention to the concerns of boomer dems. They don't know the demographics of who votes or anything. But they know the demographic makeup and they know how many of them vote.

I've found that there are also a lot of weirdos for some weird offices (county water inspector, for example) that come perilously close to getting elected. In 2016 a member here ran for tax collector on a whim and won! I'm sure most of our members would do a great job...most. Elected judges too get some odd ducks that get close to winning. Kinda fun to ignore the up ballot races where your vote doesn't count for as much and just focus on researching candidates for those way down ballot races.
posted by VTX at 5:25 PM on July 18 [3 favorites]

DJT, the only president popular enough to get shot in 50 years
posted by Jacen at 7:17 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

“The rise of the online news hustlers,” Caitlin Dewey, Links I Would Gchat You If We Were Friends, 18 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 7:42 PM on July 18

I'm one of the people who will, grudgingly, say my feelings are probably wrong since all the people who really know what they're talking about and the numbers themselves say that things are better. But the average low information voter is probably going to go with their feelings and believe the experts are lying to them. I FEEL like the experts are lying to me, even though I know it's not true.

Is it lying if they believe it?
posted by flabdablet at 8:18 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

Maybe it's a generational thing. I'm GenX, and I vividly remember Reagan getting shot. I was raised on stories and films of the 1960s assassinations. For Boomers those killings are often traumatic....If you're born after Reagan, then you didn't experience high profile American politicians catching bullets?

I was taking bayonet training when we got word that President Kennedy had been shot. Everything went a bit sideways; then we slipped into the other side of some bizarro mirror. I keep waiting for the naive and largely fictional world of Beaver Cleaver and Ozzie & Harriet to show back up, but so far everything just gets more and more complicated. Nuance is fine, I guess, but I would take more comfort in a compass. I will hold on to the thought that the light I see at the end of this long, long tunnel is not an oncoming locomotive.
posted by mule98J at 8:43 PM on July 18 [2 favorites]

It's a cannonball express.
posted by y2karl at 9:23 PM on July 18

Maybe even a Cannon gall express.
posted by flabdablet at 9:55 PM on July 18

Father of Trump gunman called police about son before attack (BBC) Matthew Crooks' father called police because he was worried about his son and his whereabouts, a law enforcement source told the BBC's news partner CBS. It's unclear when the call was made but it was before the shooting. [...]

A counter sniper flagged a suspicious man using a rangefinder to the US Secret Service some 20 minutes before the attack started, according to members of Congress briefed by law enforcement this week. Local police initially spotted the gunman, who was acting strangely and had a backpack, about an hour before the shooting. They lost him in the crowd, but he was spotted again by the sniper. No weapon was spotted by law enforcement when Crooks was seen in the crowd and officials are trying to determine how no one saw his AR-style rifle. Investigators are examining various theories, including that he had stashed it earlier in the day near the air conditioning units or that he was somehow able to smuggle it inside his backpack.
posted by Iris Gambol at 11:12 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]

and my rent is up 50% in the past 3, but I'm not going to sit here and claim the data must be wrong because I happen to be in a particularly rough spot compared to most people

one issue is the statistics are way over-aggregated. They have the data, they should show the data like rent increases, discretionary income by income quintile and location (state/county).

Real per-capita disposable income:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A229RX0Q048SBEA

did dip $2000 in 2021-22 as food and gas costs and general greedflation shot up.

Renters also got hit with rent-increases, but only ~half the country rents so that's a pulsating have / have-not dividing line in this economy now.

Even though employment is at an all-time high, manafacturing jobs are still depressed to 1940s levels:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

A flat 11% of the country has a gov't job:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1qmHS

So overall people in this economy are more likely to be in the precariat and not the comfortable middle class with two houses, two cars, two kids, etc.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1qmI9

is the core problem the media and GOP isn't going to talk about, real (2024 dollars) per-worker corporate profits have more than tripled from the long-run $6000 level to over $20,000.

Life would be a lot nicer if everyone had an extra $1000/mo to spend I bet. Then again no doubt home prices and rents would rise to take most of that (as 2022-23 demonstrated so clearly)
posted by torokunai at 6:35 AM on July 19 [6 favorites]

I saw a photo of Republicans at the convention wearing fake ear bandages and thinking “are they making fun of him?” because all I could think of was Republicans wearing “Purple Heart bandaids” to mock John Kerry? Republicans are so weird about everything it’s hard to tell jeers from cheers anymore.
posted by delicious-luncheon at 8:11 AM on July 19 [8 favorites]

They would never mock the fuhrer.
posted by Artw at 8:14 AM on July 19 [1 favorite]

Father of Trump gunman called police about son before attack (BBC) Matthew Crooks' father called police because he was worried about his son and his whereabouts, a law enforcement source told the BBC's news partner CBS. It's unclear when the call was made but it was before the shooting. [...]

Doesn't this conflict with an earlier story about the son borrowing the rifle to go to the shooting range?
posted by srboisvert at 8:23 AM on July 19 [1 favorite]

Life would be a lot nicer if everyone had an extra $1000/mo to spend I bet. Then again no doubt home prices and rents would rise to take most of that (as 2022-23 demonstrated so clearly)

Some of it would be collected as taxes which in theory would be spent on improving the system for everyone.
posted by Mitheral at 8:29 AM on July 19

The job market might be doing great, but "having a job" isn't the same proxy for financial stability that it used to be, because those jobs do not pay well enough

Since the pandemic, wage growth has been consistently higher for those with lower educational attainment.

See the thing is, both of these things can be true. Wage growth can be up, and the jobs can still not pay well enough to keep up with ever increasing costs. There are two ways to deal with that; either increase wages still further, or cut those costs. But either way, the workers are still getting squeezed no matter how much corporate profits are having banner days.

Rent is up and also all the things you can get charged for in your rent is also up. We all cut our cable and then the cable companies figured they could just start charging us as much for internet as we used to pay for cable. Internet used to be like 30$ a month - now it’s up to 130$. So now you need to pay cable prices for internet and also you need to pay for the streaming services that replaced cable. Cell phones, you used to be able to get a lower plan if you talked less, so people had $30 a month cell phone plans. Now it’s over 100$. And you need cell phones and internet to be a part of modern society. Which are also expensive to purchase, and you need them for all family members, instead of having just one landline per household. Some of these changes are social and technological changes, but workers are still getting screwed by them, and to pretend they aren’t is putting our heads in the sand.
posted by corb at 9:23 AM on July 19 [10 favorites]

They would never mock the fuhrer.
posted by Artw at 10:14 AM on July 19

Not to love the Fuehrer is a great disgrace! (cw: Actual Nazis and their symbols in the service of mocking the Nazis)
posted by Reverend John at 9:42 AM on July 19 [3 favorites]

Republicans are so weird about everything it’s hard to tell jeers from cheers anymore.

When their dear leader is shot at, they wear bandages in solidarity with the wounded.

When children are shot at, they wear gun pins in solidarity with the shooter.
posted by solotoro at 10:03 AM on July 19 [18 favorites]

A cartoon by Tom Tomorrow.
posted by mazola at 10:36 AM on July 19 [6 favorites]

Wage growth can be up, and the jobs can still not pay well enough to keep up with ever increasing costs.

I'm not going to argue that shit hasn't gotten expensive, but top line numbers are terribly misleading because companies are engaging in a system of market segmentation to a degree rarely before seen.

McDonald's put their prices up by 30%, but they'll happily give you a 20% discount on every order just by using a coupon in their app. My cell phone bill has increased by a few bucks a month, but it's less than overall inflation and they'll throw in a $1000 phone for free every few years, taking the net cost down to less than what a cheap prepaid plan costs. I'm still only paying $9.95 a month to Comcast for poor person Internet (you'd think 50/10 would be insufficient for nearly anything, but it actually works fine) and for those who don't qualify, they've got a prepaid option that costs $30 a month or $50 a month if you need more speed. Until I lucked in to the $9.95 deal I hadn't paid that little since I was on 3Mbps DSL.

Yes, it sucks that we have to expend our limited executive function on keeping ourselves from being ripped off, but it is a thing that can be done. Ironically, it is in a very real sense progressive in that people who have enough to not care are getting soaked to shit while people who don't have money to throw at things can pay less.

Rent's still eating my lunch, though, and there ain't a damn thing I can do about it that doesn't involve abandoning family and fleeing to another state.

I definitely liked it better when inflation was confined to veblen goods like high end art, supercars, private jets, and yachts like it was in the previous decade. If I'd bought that used Ford GT the dealer across the street had for a while and couldn't get rid of back in 2007 and 2008. I'd have made 10x the purchase price just by holding it for 10 years. Plus, you know, had a sweet car. It boggles the mind to think that a mass market new truck costs more than what is now an over half million dollar car cost then.
posted by wierdo at 11:41 AM on July 19 [6 favorites]

Talking Points Memo
Here’s a small update on the lack of any word from federal law enforcement or hospital officials on the what and how of the injury Donald Trump suffered last Saturday in western Pennsylvania when a 20-year-old gunman tried to shoot him.
posted by adamvasco at 8:01 PM on July 19 [9 favorites]

Perhaps Josh Marshall never saw the CNN photo linked upthread; when I zoom in on that, it sure looks to me like that ear has a wound at the front and a chunk of gristle torn out from the back. That, plus the NYT photo also linked upthread that not only captured the projectile in flight but shows his right ear facing away from the teleprompter at the time, inclines me to discount the flying debris hypothesis. I'm pretty sure he got his stylish new piercing from an actual bullet and I'm fully expecting another news story where some MAGA fuckwit accidentally shoots himself in the head while trying to replicate the look.
posted by flabdablet at 12:48 AM on July 20 [2 favorites]

I'm pretty sure he got his stylish new piercing from an actual bullet and I'm fully expecting another news story where some MAGA fuckwit accidentally shoots himself in the head while trying to replicate the look.

Oh god when the fascists come using a hole punch on your right ear is going to become to MAGA allegory to circumcision shibboleth isn’t it?
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 3:02 AM on July 20 [5 favorites]

Matthew Crooks' father called police because he was worried about his son and his whereabouts, a law enforcement source told the BBC's news partner CBS. It's unclear when the call was made but it was before the shooting. [...]

Doesn't this conflict with an earlier story about the son borrowing the rifle to go to the shooting range?

No.
posted by bq at 4:40 AM on July 20 [1 favorite]

If Marshall is going to do the "just asking questions" thing, he should probably address the key point folks keep noting when this comes up: the 2 teleprompters on either side of Trump both appear to be unharmed after the Secret Service had Trump on the ground. Does he suggest there was another teleprompter? Or another item that was hit and caused shrapnel to fly around? At the least Marshall should make clear he knows about that very obvious rebuttal to his hypothesis, and offer his thoughts about it.
posted by mediareport at 6:24 AM on July 20 [2 favorites]

Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), who
— deemed Trump in "excellent health" [praising his boss's "incredibly good genes"] in 2018, while serving as WH physician
— was the subject of a Pentagon investigation resulting in a scathing report by the DoD's inspector general in 2021 (Investigation Report, 37pg .pdf)
— was demoted to captain in 2022 after the Navy launched an investigation into his time as WH physician
— detailed the injury his nephew suffered during the shooting at the rally

says he examined Trump a day after the shooting: "The bullet took a little bit off the top of his ear in an area that, just by nature, bleeds like crazy,” Jackson told The New York Times. "The dressing’s bulked up a bit because you need a bit of absorbent. You don’t want to be walking around with bloody gauze on his ear."
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:59 AM on July 20 [1 favorite]

Oh god when the fascists come using a hole punch on your right ear is going to become to MAGA allegory to circumcision shibboleth isn’t it?

Well, sure, but also think of how it’ll speed up the inevitable process of eartagging federal employees like livestock under Schedule F.
posted by mochapickle at 8:27 AM on July 20 [6 favorites]

It's taken a week but this seems to provide some coherence about what actually happened.
Now we just need some coherence about the kid with no digital footprint and no friends and the complete fuck up of the security forces allowing this to happen.
posted by adamvasco at 1:48 PM on July 20 [2 favorites]

WSJ gift link: Trump Gunman Flew Drone Over Rally Site Hours Before Attempted Assassination

The gunman who tried to kill Donald Trump was able to fly a drone and get aerial footage of the western Pennsylvania fairgrounds shortly before the former president was set to speak there, law-enforcement officials briefed on the matter said...

Thomas Matthew Crooks flew the drone on a programmed flight path earlier in the day on July 13 to scour the Butler Farm Show grounds ahead of Trump’s ill-fated rally, the officials said. The predetermined path, the officials added, suggests Crooks flew the drone more than once as he researched and scoped out the event site...

Crooks...began researching the site shortly after the Trump campaign announced the rally on July 3, and registered for the event on July 7, officials said. He visited the farm show grounds a few days later to scope it out.
posted by mediareport at 3:21 PM on July 20 [2 favorites]

Secret Service said to have denied requests for more security at Trump events

Agents charged with protecting the former president requested magnetometers and more agents to screen attendees at sporting events and other large public gatherings Trump attended, as well as additional snipers and specialty teams at other outdoor events, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive security discussions. The requests, which have not been previously reported, were sometimes denied by senior officials at the agency, who cited various reasons, including a lack of resources at an agency that has long struggled with staffing shortages, they said.

This is bad. Hope we're all prepared for Benghazi part 2.
posted by Room 101 at 4:48 PM on July 20 [1 favorite]

How Trump could ease the burden he's putting on the Secret Service (USA Today, August 23, 2017) As USA TODAY first reported Monday, the Secret Service can no longer pay hundreds of agents, who are grappling with protecting a president who spends almost every weekend traveling to properties he owns on the East Coast and the 18-member first family's frequent business trips and vacations. Director Randolph “Tex” Alles said more than 1,000 agents have already hit federally mandated caps on annual salary and overtime allowances meant to last the whole year.

Nearly 900 Secret Service members were infected with the coronavirus. A watchdog blames Trump (WaPo, June 23, 2021, gift link)

During Donald Trump’s presidency, Trump hotels charged the Secret Service as much as $1,185 per night, more than five times the recommended government rate, and the high rates continued after he left office, according to an investigation released Monday by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform. (NBC, Oct. 17, 2022)
House panel: Trump’s bills to Secret Service ‘exorbitant’ (AP, Oct. 17, 2022)

The U.S. Secret Service has been struggling for a decade to maintain the staffing it needs to ensure the safety of its protectees, a top official said on Wednesday, who explained the agency is doing the best it can with the resources it has. (Government Executive, July 17, 2024)
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:11 PM on July 20 [17 favorites]

Secret Service asked for $60 million extra for Trump-era travel and protection, documents show (WaPo, March 22, 2017) [Funds were not approved.] $26.8 million would pay to protect President Trump’s family and private home in New York’s Trump Tower, the documents show, while $33 million would be spent on travel costs incurred by “the president, vice president and other visiting heads of state.”
The documents, part of the Secret Service’s request for the fiscal 2018 budget, reflect the costly surprise facing Secret Service agents tasked with guarding the president’s large and far-flung family, accommodating their ambitious travel schedules and fortifying the three-floor Manhattan penthouse where first lady Melania Trump and son Barron live.

A person familiar with internal Secret Service budget discussions said the requests for additional funding, prepared in late February, were rejected by the Office of Management and Budget, an arm of the White House. That means the agency will probably have to divert other spending to handle the additional burden. While best known for protecting the president, Secret Service agents also investigate cyber­crimes, counterfeit-money operations, and cases­ involving missing and exploited minors.

Secret Service says it will run out of money to protect Trump and his family Sept. 30 (Denver Post/WaPo, August 21, 2017)
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:20 PM on July 20 [10 favorites]

Why is Biden continuing to let Trump loot the treasury via bullshit about rental fees for his bodyguards. If he wants USSS protection and wants to spend his time at his hotels then he can let them stay for free at his hotels. I remember he was even charging them crazy high fees for golf cart rental so they could stay with him on his many golf courses.

Surely Biden has the power, as the executive and newly granted super powers to be a bold and decisive executive, to make an ultimatum about this?
posted by sotonohito at 5:50 PM on July 20 [6 favorites]

This is bad. Hope we're all prepared for Benghazi part 2.

Last I checked wasn't part of the Secret Service. Also the Secret Service has terrible since at least the Obama administration. This is nothing about Trump and more about a government agency consistently failing for two decades.
posted by srboisvert at 5:54 PM on July 20

Trump campaign releases letter on his injury, treatment after last week’s assassination attempt (AP News, 7/20/2024).
The letter is authored by his former WH physician, Rep. Ronny Jackson. No, seriously:
"Jackson said in the letter that, as Trump’s former doctor, he was worried and traveled to Bedminster, New Jersey, where Trump had flown late Saturday after he returned from Pennsylvania, "to personally check on him, and offer my assistance in any way possible." He said he has been with Trump since that time, evaluating and treating his wound daily."
posted by Iris Gambol at 10:30 PM on July 20 [1 favorite]

Fucker is now claiming he "took a bullet for democracy". Tell it to the Comperatore family, you worthless orange skidmark.
posted by flabdablet at 5:29 AM on July 21 [4 favorites]

I suppose you could say that Mussolini took a bullet (or several) for democracy when he was executed by firing squad for the whole fascist dictator, crimes against democracy thing. Trump seems to have taken a near miss from a bullet for disaffected young white male depression/anger/ennui.
posted by eviemath at 5:38 AM on July 21 [4 favorites]

“What Does Peace Mean in the Heart of Empire?” Kelly Hayes, Organizing My Thoughts, 19 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 8:34 AM on July 21 [1 favorite]

A 20-year-old’s perplexing place in the catalogue of American gunmen (WaPo)
posted by box at 9:20 AM on July 21

Secret Service said to have denied requests for more security at Trump events

But not for the event in question, right?
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 10:58 PM on July 21

“No Motive,” Corey Mohler, Existential Comics, 22 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 11:21 AM on July 22 [2 favorites]

Rep. Ronny Jackson, former WH physician, aka "The Candyman," currently treating the candidate's wound, has a Florida medical license considered "MILITARY ACTIVE" - "the licensed practitioner, serving in the Armed Forces of the United States, is only authorized to practice in a military facility." Jackson retired from the Navy in 2019: "‘I’m an ER doctor,’ Rep. Ronny Jackson told officers at rodeo, but license is expired" (Dallas Morning News, Sept. 7, 2023) During a scuffle at a West Texas rodeo that left him briefly in handcuffs, U.S. Rep. Ronny Jackson insisted he was an emergency room doctor trying to help a girl who’d had a seizure.[...] Footage from the trooper’s body camera showed Carson County deputies holding back the two-term congressman, an Amarillo Republican, as he unleashed profanity at officers over the course of a half-hour.

The former White House physician has no Texas medical license. His Virginia license expired more than three years ago, and his Florida license hasn’t been valid since he retired from the Navy in 2019, though that would in no way make it illegal or unethical to offer aid during an emergency. Jackson has been board certified in emergency medicine since 2005 [cert. #36042], though a license is still required to practice medicine.
-
Jackson threatened to beat a state trooper and “bury” a West Texas sheriff in the next election after deputies pushed him to the ground and handcuffed him at a rodeo, according to a sheriff’s incident report released Friday night. It says deputies asked Jackson to step back at least four times before they detained him, and he had also ignored the state trooper’s order to step back to let emergency responders help the girl. [...] Jackson’s office, provided a copy of the report, disputed that he’d been drinking and accused officers of mishandling the situation. [...] One of the EMTs on the scene, Kimberly Thomas, also told the sheriff that “he did appear drunk.” (Dallas Morning News, Aug. 11, 2023)

Two EMTs attending the rodeo took over from the ailing girl's relative, a nurse, before the ambulance arrived; family attributed the seizure to low blood sugar. Jackson later told the sheriff "that in his attempt to care for the patient, he thought it was safe to put a gumball in the patient’s mouth as a way to elevate her blood sugar. [In the report, EMS provider Kimberly] Thomas says that the gum presents a choking hazard to patients having a seizure, and that most gum is sugar free and thus would not address low blood sugar. (Texas Tribune, Aug. 11 2023)
posted by Iris Gambol at 5:38 PM on July 22 [21 favorites]

Whoa, Iris Gambol, that is a hell of a detailed comment worth a post of its own. Seriously. What an incredible and horrific story. I would favorite it ten times at the least if I could. And he's Donald Trump's personal physician impersonator? For reasons I can think but not say, Well, well, well...
posted by y2karl at 6:57 PM on July 22 [2 favorites]

It feels like there is a valid story here for journalists and editors of the New York Times — some of whom have accounts on this site — that might have the courage to cover Trump and his entourage fairly, whatever management and ownership might otherwise desire.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 8:03 PM on July 22 [2 favorites]

Hey, remember 11 days ago when this was going to dominate the next four months and guarantee Trump a victory?
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 6:29 AM on July 23 [5 favorites]

journalists and editors of the New York Times — some of whom have accounts on this site

Eh, David Brooks hasn't commented in years.
posted by box at 7:20 AM on July 23

The NYT has done an interesting "viewshed analysis" of what the shooter could likely see and from where he could be seen. Gift link.

Also, SS Director Cheatle has resigned after getting grilled yesterday.
posted by Rumple at 9:43 AM on July 23 [1 favorite]

Also, SS Director Cheatle has resigned after getting grilled yesterday.

I'm kind of surprised it happened so quickly. It seems like it would be in the interest of Republicans to drag it out.

On the other hand, the congressional leadership is under Secret Service protection so perhaps they're motivated by more personal reasons.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 9:51 AM on July 23

A 20-year-old’s perplexing place in the catalogue of American gunmen (WaPo)

Is it perplexing? Shooter is an absolutely generic shooter loser. There’s dozens of this twerp a year.
posted by Artw at 10:01 AM on July 23 [3 favorites]

Artw, the thing is, Crooks wasn't especially a loser. He wasn't a spectacular success, but he had a decent job and he had friends.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 10:41 AM on July 23 [3 favorites]

Artw, the thing is, Crooks wasn't especially a loser. He wasn't a spectacular success, but he had a decent job and he had friends.

He had also gotten an associate degree in Engineering and had been accepted at University of Pittsburgh and Robert Morris University, the latter he was due to start at in two months. The guy had his shit together as well as having no signs of mental illness up to this point.

He was very different from the standard model.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 12:39 PM on July 23 [2 favorites]

Most of them don’t have any form of diagnosable mental illness.
posted by Artw at 1:14 PM on July 23 [1 favorite]

remember 11 days ago when this was going to dominate the next four months

The Paris Olympics are going to be dominating everything for the next couple weeks starting Friday... a breath of fresh air, I hope (with no trouble).
posted by Rash at 1:29 PM on July 23

Most of them don’t have any form of diagnosable mental illness.

True. I was just covering all of the bases.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 1:46 PM on July 23

That’s what I find most disturbing about this whole thing. This guy had parents and friends who had no idea what was going on in his head. I have kids. His poor fucking parents.

also gun culture sucks.
posted by bq at 2:13 PM on July 23 [5 favorites]

This guy had parents and friends who had no idea what was going on in his head.

I have a relative who I talked to every couple of weeks for months while they were going to university about how university was going.

Turns out they were too scared to tell me the whole time that they had dropped out.
posted by clawsoon at 2:39 PM on July 23

Conventionally not mentally ill, slightly mediocre and angry about it seems like the sweet spot.
posted by Artw at 2:58 PM on July 23 [1 favorite]

Didn’t his parents call the police before the shooting? They must have known what’s up, on some level
posted by MisantropicPainforest at 3:43 PM on July 23 [4 favorites]

Ohio Republican forced to scramble after ‘civil war’ comments

Unity!
posted by Artw at 4:07 PM on July 23 [2 favorites]

Perhaps, just perhaps, we as a nation have reached the point where we're actually thinking, "gee, maybe an actual civil war would be bad, worse than my child reading a book with Muslim characters or maybe even worse than drivers' licenses for undocumented people. People killing and dying all over the place while instability and violence wrecked the economy might even be worse than the woke mind virus!"
posted by Frowner at 5:16 PM on July 23 [2 favorites]

X Redesigns Water Pistol Emoji Back To A Firearm [emojipedia.org]: X (fka Twitter) has quietly redesigned its 🔫 Water Pistol emoji to display as a firearm. This diverges from the cross-platform conversion of this emoji from firearm to water pistol from 2016 to 2018.

Something, something tone down the rhetoric. It's probably nothing.
posted by mazola at 7:03 PM on July 23 [3 favorites]

Ohio Republican forced to scramble after ‘civil war’ comments

At some point, Republicans will be held accountable for violent sedition. It won't be today, probably not tomorrow. But one day, they will have to face the music, and they won't have their precious Supreme Court picks to bail them out.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:11 PM on July 23

If people believed that then they wouldn’t secretly regret the kid missing.
posted by Artw at 7:14 PM on July 23

I mean, some of us aren't making any secret of it.

Also Tim Maughan on Bluesky:

“there’s no justification for political violence” is a thing people that don’t understand climate change say

posted by adrienneleigh at 12:50 AM on July 24 [1 favorite]

climate change

Shooters are more of a natural phenomenon with no one to blame anyway. No he to blame!
posted by Artw at 5:36 AM on July 24

Pennsylvania state police commissioner reveals "stunning" details about Trump shooting (July 24, 2024) Pennsylvania State Police Commissioner Christopher Paris testified that two local law enforcement officers left a building with vantage points overlooking the roof where Crooks took aim at the former president before he fired shots, but the local district attorney later said the building was never unmanned.

When asked about the DA’s statement, a spokesperson for the Pennsylvania State Police said the agency stands by Paris’ testimony.

Investigators believe that Crooks fired eight rounds before he was killed by counter-snipers, Paris said. "Eight casings have been recovered." Paris also told members of Congress that "several Secret Service agents" told the state police area commander during a walkthrough of the area before the rally that the Butler County Emergency Services Unit was responsible for securing the building where Crooks fired the shots.

Paris told lawmakers that Crooks was on the roof for roughly three minutes, but only a few seconds passed between when the officer confronted him and when he fired at Trump, correcting a timeframe he gave earlier in the hearing [:] "When the one local officer hoisted the other one up, and subsequently falls," Paris said, Crooks was "already, I believe, close to being in his final position there. And I’m told it’s – again, sequence of events, not a timeline based on the prior criteria laid out – but seconds after that is when the first shots rang up."

Pennsylvania State Police Commissioner Christopher Paris’ striking testimony comes just one day after now-resigned Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle testified before the House Oversight Committee and largely declined to answer questions about the shooting at the former president’s Pennsylvania rally.
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:36 PM on July 24

American presidents might increasingly needs vice presidential picks who'd make their assassination problematic. lol
posted by jeffburdges at 12:36 PM on July 25

JD Vance 2024: “If you work hard and play by the rules, you ought to be able to put a good dinner on the table and send your kids to whatever vacation and whatever school you want. To work hard and play by the rules, you get a good life. It's that simple.”

Bill Clinton 1992: "The main idea here is still the old idea of the American dream ... that if you work hard and play by the rules, you ought to have a decent life and a chance for your children to have a better one, "

They might seem like they are saying the same thing, but one is suggesting that going to Europe for a month and sending their kids to a private boarding school is their now option. Vance was specially chosen to appeal to forgotten and struggling rust belt voters, like those in his book, Hillbilly Elegy Effigy.
posted by Brian B. at 1:22 PM on July 25 [3 favorites]

Now, 12 days after the mass shooting at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, there is increasing media attention to the fact that there has still been no medical report on Trump’s injuries, although he wore a large bandage on his ear at the Republican National Convention and said at a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Saturday that he “took a bullet for democracy.” (Heather Cox Richardson, Letters from an American) Yesterday, FBI director Christopher Wray told Congress that it is not clear whether Trump was “grazed” by a bullet or by shrapnel, words that former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance called “FBI speak for, ‘it’s unlikely it was a bullet.’”

CNN chief medical consultant Dr. Sanjay Gupta noted last week that the people need a real medical evaluation of Trump’s injuries, explaining that “gunshot blasts near the head can cause injuries that aren’t immediately noticeable, such as bleeding in or on the brain, damage to the inner ear or even psychological trauma.” But, as Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has noted, much of the press has kept mum about the story.

Media outlets have reported Wray’s testimony, though, and in a social media post today, Trump called on Wray, whom he appointed to head the FBI, to resign from his post for “LYING TO CONGRESS.” Tonight, he reiterated that “it was…a bullet that hit my ear, and hit it hard.”

posted by Iris Gambol at 12:36 PM on July 26 [1 favorite]

I hate Trump as much as anyone and fully feel it's reasonable to expect him to lie about what time it is, much less whether he was shot. But isn't there, like, a high speed photo of a bullet going toward his ear, followed by his ear bleeding? I don't think it makes sense to go too far down a conspiracy theory rabbithole on that unless really compelling info emerges.

I mean, if people want to get all magic bullet, grassy knoll on this, you do you.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:03 PM on July 26 [1 favorite]

But isn't there, like, a high speed photo of a bullet going toward his ear, followed by his ear bleeding?

I recall something like this, and something else, a really exaggerated and comical image; and sure, a bullet was going towards him, but I thought the consensus was it shattered something and a piece of that cut his ear.
posted by Rash at 2:36 PM on July 26

My very unkind hope is that the complete medical report refers flatly to Trump soiling himself during the incident.

This is not because I am the kind of person who would find it that hard to understand, but because the shares-photoshops-of-Trump's-head-on-Rambo's-body crowd sure would and that would be hilarious.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:40 PM on July 26

I mean, being truly scared during a shooting isn't funny, but jackals eating their own is funny as hell.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 2:55 PM on July 26 [3 favorites]

But isn't there, like, a high speed photo of a bullet going toward his ear, followed by his ear bleeding?

Because I am not a very good person I have had this photo open in a tab on my phone for personal use since the shooting. It's here if you want to see it.
posted by phunniemee at 3:08 PM on July 26 [3 favorites]

for personal use

ew
posted by mittens at 3:29 PM on July 26 [3 favorites]

Sometimes I like to pretend karma is real. Sue me.
posted by phunniemee at 3:39 PM on July 26 [2 favorites]

Federal agents "discovered Crooks was using encrypted messaging apps to communicate" on his phone. (CBS) "Wray told members of the House Judiciary Committee that the gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks, flew a drone near the site of the rally roughly two hours before he opened fire. Wray said investigators recovered the drone in Crooks' vehicle, and the bureau believes he was watching video streamed from the device to scout the area."
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:16 PM on July 26

Donald Trump Seen in Public Without Ear Bandage (the Daily Beast)

His ear is unmarked at this point, so whatever hit him, it was apparently a very, very minor graze.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:27 PM on July 26 [2 favorites]

I thought the consensus was it shattered something and a piece of that cut his ear.

What shattered? As mentioned above, both teleprompters on either side of Trump are clearly unharmed in pics taken after Trump was on the ground under a pile of Secret Service agents. So what do you suggest was chipped by the bullet and went flying to his ear?
posted by mediareport at 5:40 PM on July 26

apparently a very, very minor graze

that came within inches of ending his life along with killing and wounding innocent bystanders. It does no one any good to float this "it really wasn't that serious an injury" stuff.
posted by mediareport at 5:43 PM on July 26 [4 favorites]

If Trump has reason to believe he was grazed by a bullet, that would be corroborated by either medical records or police records. Knowing what I know of the jackass, the fact that neither of these has been produced for the public strongly suggests that they simply don’t exist. Maybe he believes he was, but that certainly doesn’t mean he was.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:55 PM on July 26 [4 favorites]

mediareport: I am not disagreeing that a few inches would've made a huge difference! But the two statements, "the shooter almost killed him" and "he does not seem to have been seriously physically injured" are not actually at odds!
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:07 PM on July 26 [3 favorites]

CNN chief medical consultant Dr. Sanjay Gupta noted last week that the people need a real medical evaluation of Trump’s injuries

Show us the long-form ear certificate!
posted by ActingTheGoat at 6:30 PM on July 26 [10 favorites]

What shattered?

A bullet hitting something hard.

I don’t think it’s worth worrying about, however. The shot could’ve been 10 feet away, and Trump would still be claiming to have taken a bullet. Why people continue to think that the Truth is an effective way to deal with Trump I have no idea.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 8:29 PM on July 26 [2 favorites]

What shattered? As mentioned above, both teleprompters on either side of Trump are clearly unharmed in pics taken after Trump was on the ground under a pile of Secret Service agents.

For the record one of the teleprompters looked like it had been hit near the top right edge and gotten chipped in one picture I saw on the day. Could have been a reflection or something, though. The picture in question was taken from behind where Trump was standing, IIRC.
posted by wierdo at 10:40 PM on July 26 [1 favorite]

The zoomed-in photo halfway down the Snopes page about this question is what convinced me that was a reflection and not a chip, weirdo.

Anyway, to slightly reframe the "bullet or shrapnel?" thing, the FBI has now stated that it was "a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces" that hit Trump's ear, and is still examining bullet fragments from the scene to try and account for all the shots fired:

"What struck former President Trump in the ear was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle," the FBI said in its statement...

"The FBI's Shooting Reconstruction Team continues to examine evidence from the scene, including bullet fragments, and the investigation remains ongoing."

"Shrapnel or bullet?" The answer at the moment seems to be "possibly bullet shrapnel."
posted by mediareport at 4:54 AM on July 27 [2 favorites]

If anyone's still interested in the minutiae of what went wrong at the rally, the Post has an article exploring how no one on Trump's immediate security detail was notified that other teams were tracking a suspicious person: [gift link]

A Secret Service official told The Post investigators are still working to determine whether anyone relayed the information about the suspicious person to Trump’s security detail or to other Secret Service operational teams.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing investigation, said reports of suspicious people are fairly commonplace at some public events and sometimes do not rise to the level of changing plans or alerting the senior official’s security detail, a team of about five to 10 agents who serve as the innermost ring of security for that person.

It notes at the end there are legit reasons for different teams to be on different radio frequencies (so a kid separated from its parents won't overwhelm the network, e.g.), but also leaves a clear impression that the system they used was seriously fucked up, to have minutes go by after reports of a guy (with a range finder, who appeared and then disappeared) did not get passed to Trump's closest team.
posted by mediareport at 8:30 AM on July 28 [2 favorites]

If anyone's interested in what's going to go wrong next:
Secret Service encourages Trump campaign to stop outdoor rallies (WaPo, July 23, 2024) For upcoming events, Trump’s team is scouting indoor venues, such as basketball arenas and other large spaces where thousands of people can fit, people familiar with the request said. The campaign is not currently planning any large outdoor events, a person close to Trump said.
=3 DAYS LATER=
Trump vows to stage outdoor rallies with extra help from Secret Service (WaPo, July 27, 2024)
Trump says he will continue outdoor rallies with increased Secret Service protection (CBS, July 27, 2024)
Trump plans more outdoor rallies, says Secret Service must protect him (Reuters, July 27, 2024)
posted by Iris Gambol at 12:00 PM on July 28 [6 favorites]

Great, waste that public money.
posted by Artw at 12:03 PM on July 28 [1 favorite]

I really wonder about the limits here where the SS just says "No". Like if Trump gets it into his brain to visit the Ukrainian front line or take a stroll around Gaza are the SS going to go along with it?

Might be cheaper to just make a giant bullet proof bell jar they could lower over him while he's out in public. Like the popemobile.
posted by Mitheral at 1:41 PM on July 28 [2 favorites]

CAN they say no? Seriously, can they?
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:53 PM on July 28 [2 favorites]

The upshot of all of this is, as usual, the entire government falling all over itself to give more money to cops.
posted by adrienneleigh at 2:42 PM on July 28 [2 favorites]

I've been wondering if Republicans in Congress are still wearing AR-15 lapel pins.
posted by MtDewd at 3:30 PM on July 28 [3 favorites]

CAN they say no? Seriously, can they?

They are obligated to give protection where they can, but they can also say very clearly where they can’t.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 6:04 PM on July 28

As a public service agency, they are also obligated to operate within their allocated budget. From what I've seen, trying to protect Trump has blown that budget out of the water. They shouldn't be letting that happen - they should be providing the best protection they can within their budget, which would solve a lot of the nonsense that is going on where clearly no risk assessment or management is in place.
posted by dg at 7:46 PM on July 28 [2 favorites]

Wonder if Trump can’t get any big indoor venues because he’s notorious for not paying his bills.
posted by azpenguin at 7:52 PM on July 28 [2 favorites]

The problem is, they’re expected to give the best protection within their budget, but also there are some failure points they’re not expected to sink to, and “let the protectee get shot” is in there.
posted by corb at 8:01 PM on July 28 [1 favorite]

Well, I would hope they're having conversations along the lines of 'we can't protect you at this venue and here's why' but, equally important 'we can't provide you with the level of protection you expect, given the resources we have available'. There's no way the Secret Service should be expected to provide 24/7 guaranteed security when people make stupid decisions that vastly increase their own risk profile. Not to mention insisting that the protectee be paid extortionate amounts for accommodation for protectors.

Just like every government agency, they have an allocated budget and must stick to it. That's what the government has determined they need and, if it's not enough, there are measures to request increases. If there are no increases, the level of protection must be reduced. Every agency head has to manage this problem and they can never do all the things they want to or are asked to. The Secret Service isn't special in that regard. In the end, they're just providing a service.
posted by dg at 9:10 PM on July 28 [1 favorite]

ex-Presidents shouldn't get any free security anyway, frankly. If they want it, they can pay for it.
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:12 PM on July 28 [1 favorite]

Trump can’t get any big indoor venues because he’s notorious for not paying his bills.

Also indoor venues expose how few people show up to his rallies. Either they fill the seats and it looks cramped on TV because of the small venue or they have a bunch of empty seats in a large venue.
posted by Mitheral at 2:16 AM on July 29

Republicans are about to become desperate (Brian Beutler's Off Message newsletter)
posted by box at 5:44 AM on July 29 [2 favorites]

ex-Presidents shouldn't get any free security anyway, frankly.

But leading presidential candidates should, frankly.
posted by mediareport at 5:53 AM on July 29 [1 favorite]

ex-Presidents shouldn't get any free security anyway, frankly.

Why in the world not? They’ll remain big juicy targets for the rest of their lives specifically due to their service to the country.

Could you imagine if someone kidnapped an ex-president? How would that *not* immediately be a problem for the Federal government? Secret Service protection is literally an ounce of protection compared to the pound of fixing that nightmare.
posted by Tell Me No Lies at 6:41 AM on July 29 [2 favorites]

Wonder if Trump can’t get any big indoor venues because he’s notorious for not paying his bills.

I would love to see a big online list of all the suppliers, contractors etc that TFG and/or his companies have stiffed, including those who had to litigate. Of course, any settlement at that point is probably smothered by an NDA, so the information wouldn't be available or volunteered. Also a list of bankruptcies, re-organizations, fines, reprimands, etc. People need to see what "Winning!" looks like.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:41 AM on July 29

Could you imagine if someone kidnapped an ex-president? How would that *not* immediately be a problem for the Federal government? Secret Service protection is literally an ounce of protection compared to the pound of fixing that nightmare.

I haven't re-read the constitution in the past year, but I don't recall the ex-president being delegated any powers of government, so the Federal government will continue to function. Abducting Obama won't be much different than Russia kidnapping arresting Evan Gershkovich. A problem for the federal government but not an existential crisis.

The status that matters here is being a main contender for the next presidency. That abduction is a destabilizing force to our democracy, and its continued functioning in foreign policy.
posted by pwnguin at 10:17 AM on July 29 [2 favorites]

I think part of the argument for security for past presidents is that they know an awful lot of classified information, information about national security methods and resources, etc., which possibly other countries would want to extract from them.
posted by eviemath at 10:45 AM on July 29 [5 favorites]

Why in the world not? They’ll remain big juicy targets for the rest of their lives specifically due to their service to the country.

lmao "service"

The real answer is: because after you are no longer President, you're just some fucking guy again. It's not a Life Peerage. You don't deserve any fucking special privileges, period. Plus every single one of them since Carter has made shittons of money off their prestige as a "former President" even if they didn't make shittons of money while in office (which most of them did). They get five figures to go give a speech. They can pay for their own fucking security.
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:43 PM on July 29 [1 favorite]

I think part of the argument for security for past presidents is that they know an awful lot of classified information, information about national security methods and resources, etc., which possibly other countries would want to extract from them.

If this is the concern, then it's not the President I am concerned about. Rather National Security Advisors should have a permanent US security detail. On September 10th, Bush might not have known the difference between a terrorist group and a cheesebread snack, but Condoleezza Rice sure did.
posted by pwnguin at 2:49 PM on July 29 [1 favorite]

CBS News state department reporter Charles Wolfson reports that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also received some extended protection from the State Department's bureau of diplomatic security after she left office. It is not known how long the protection lasted or if it still in effect. (CBS News, March 30, 2009)
posted by Iris Gambol at 4:03 PM on July 29

I think part of the argument for security for past presidents is that they know an awful lot of classified information, information about national security methods and resources, etc., which possibly other countries would want to extract from them.
Well, at least in the case of Trump, it's hard to see how that security prevented an awful lot of classified information from getting into the hands of other countries. If the purpose of the security is to prevent that, it failed miserably. Perhaps the people running the security need to be reminded that they are protecting the secrecy of information itself, so they should be ensuring secret information is secure rather than worrying so much about the person insisting it's OK to store secret information in semi-public spaces.

I think most of this 'security' is nothing more than theatre anyway. As we've seen recently and throughout history, it's not very effective when someone has their heart set on attacking a person. Any person who believes they are important enough to warrant personal protection indefinitely should pay for it themselves. They could also take some responsibility for their own security by not exposing themselves to unwarranted risk.
posted by dg at 5:15 PM on July 29 [1 favorite]

I mean, i literally don't think any individual should get 24/7 Secret Service protection, frankly. The whole point of America is supposed to be that there isn't an aristocracy; that our representatives in government are, in fact, just people doing a fucking job. I'm willing to concede to the need for securing the actual persons of the President and the VP, but their families? Other random members of the government? Former members of the government? Nah. Nobody else with an important job gets free round-the-clock bodyguards at taxpayer expense, including people doing way more dangerous work. Fuck that. Want to be one of the most powerful people in the world? Take your fucking chances like a big kid.
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:39 PM on July 29 [1 favorite]

(Or, given the prevalence of school shootings that nobody is protected from, take your chances like a little kid. Why do you, the powerful, deserve to be protected from a thing that every schoolkid in America faces every day of their lives?)
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:44 PM on July 29 [9 favorites]

I'm willing to concede to the need for securing the actual persons of the President and the VP, but their families? Other random members of the government? Former members of the government? Nah. Nobody else with an important job gets free round-the-clock bodyguards at taxpayer expense, including people doing way more dangerous work.

I've felt this way ever since Penny Pritzker's security detail blew through a four-way stop sign in Lincoln Park, Chicago on their way to her mansion on a residential side street in Chicago. The only thing that saved me from being flattened by the first of three speeding navy blue suburbans (Navy blue suburbans being the chariot of choice for these wannabe emperors and their entourages) was my wife grabbing my arm and pulling me back from exercising my legal right of way.

Imagine dying because the billionaire Secretary of Commerce, laughably described as an entrepreneur by the Obama admin in her appointment press release, felt threatened when probably not even one in half a million people could even tell you who the Secretary of Commerce was and even fewer could recognize her.

It's ridiculous bullshit for America to have even local leadership with security details careening all over the place in their above the law security status displays. It costs millions at every level of government, isolates leadership from the concerns and lives of ordinary people, and teaches corruption, greed and petty status seeking.
posted by srboisvert at 2:53 AM on July 30 [5 favorites]

I like the idea of granting US Presidents EXACTLY as much protection as the average kindergarten kid gets.

Want less risk of a President being shot? Guess you'd better start working on the problem of gun violence then shouldn't you?
posted by sotonohito at 9:41 AM on July 30 [9 favorites]

That's in line with something I'd love a reporter or debate moderator to ask Trump: A guy just blindsided your security detail, shot at you, wounded you, with *this* kind of gun. How many more times are you comfortable with this happening to you? What is something you can do that would prevent this from happening to you again?

Frame the question that way. Make it about him, personally.
posted by emelenjr at 10:28 AM on July 30 [3 favorites]

I like the idea of granting US Presidents EXACTLY as much protection as the average kindergarten kid gets.

sotonohito: see also my proposal to peg every politician's income to the median income in their district! Want a better salary? Guess you better find ways to uplift your constituents! (For the President and VP, obviously their "district" is the whole country, INCLUDING the US territories. Better help people get out of poverty, you privileged shitbags!)
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:00 PM on July 30 [5 favorites]

With a No-Fail Mission, the Secret Service Strains to Make Do

Interviews with current and former Secret Service agents reveal an agency that wears down its employees, risking their sharpness. And they portray an organization that spends so much money on physical protection that there are few funds left to stay abreast of the latest law enforcement training and technologies.

An assassination attempt on former President Donald J. Trump at a campaign rally on July 13 in Butler, Pa., has exposed weaknesses in the Secret Service’s make-do approach to security for the country’s highest elected officials, their families, and visiting foreign leaders.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 2:43 PM on July 30 [1 favorite]

New details from WaPo: a local cop fired a rifle shot at the gunman after the first volley of bullets hit the crowd, which caused the gunman to stop firing for 10 seconds - enough time for the SS sniper to kill him. [archive]:

The local officer who shot at Crooks was assigned to a barn behind and to the north of the rally stage, along with a counterassault and quick-reaction force team from Butler County, the local law enforcement official said.

The officer, who was not a sniper, had left the barn and was outside on the ground nearby when Crooks began firing from the rooftop about 110 yards away, the official said. The local officer saw the muzzle flashes from Crooks’s rifle, the official said, and fired his rifle at Crooks...

FBI officials confirmed that a Butler County officer fired at the gunman, and that the officer’s weapon has been taken to the FBI’s laboratory in Quantico, Va., for further analysis.

I heard the new SS acting director on NPR yesterday testifying that local cops were just using a text chain to communicate with one another about the suspicious person, instead of their radios, which was one reason the info didn't get to Trump's immediate team. Given the blame game going on between the local cops and the SS, it's interesting we're just now hearing a leak about a local cop's key contribution.
posted by mediareport at 3:57 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]

the new SS acting director

Before coffee, I loaded this page and saw this phrase out of context and dutifully tried to fit it into my understanding of the world for about ten seconds before I got around to reading the whole comment.

"The Nazis brought the SS back? And they have a director who does nothing but manage their performances?"

I hate 2024 so much.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 5:47 AM on July 31 [3 favorites]

As a side note, going back to the topic of who should get Secret Service protection in the first place: US government employees with pieces of national security knowledge but lower profiles are not completely ignored, security-wise. Though in that case it seems to me more restrictions than extra services - for example, mathematicians who go to work for the NSA or who work on restricted clearance projects for companies that have military contracts have to request clearance for any travel outside of the US. (Or, at least, that was the case back when I was a recent PhD on the job market and they were heavily recruiting at the annual main math conference in the US. From what I’ve heard, employees for Canada’s version of the NSA, CSIS, have similar restrictions.) That was the main security precaution they were public about in their recruiting, but it sounds like there might have been other measures as well? Definitely not the same as getting to go wherever you want, cost be damned, and expecting the Secret Service to keep up. It does seem to me that it would be reasonable for ex-presidents to have to live with the same restrictions on their public life as other government employees and ex-employees with higher level security clearances have, though. Like, arguably they should not be making public speeches or lectures (for monetary compensation especially, though that’s for different reasons).
posted by eviemath at 6:30 AM on July 31

I regret posting my initial reaction above, especially as a certainty rather than a deep-seated dread. Luckly the Kamalanomenon is real, and things are looking up. If (when?) she wipes the floor with him, I will be deeply relieved and grateful to have been wrong.
posted by johnofjack at 7:47 AM on August 4 [1 favorite]