Exodus
July 31, 2024 8:10 AM Subscribe
Snow Belt to Sun Belt Migration: End of an Era [pdf] - "Given climate change projections for coming decades of increasing extreme heat in the hottest U.S. counties and decreasing extreme cold in the coldest counties, our findings suggest the 'pivoting' in the U.S. climate-migration correlation over the past 50 years is likely to continue, leading to a reversal of the 20th century Snow Belt to Sun Belt migration pattern." (via)
How Economic Damage Will Drive Climate Migration - "A new book charts the forces that will shape massive US population shifts in the coming decades."
-'Climate Gentrification' Will Displace One Million People in Miami Alone
-In the South, sea level rise accelerates at some of the most extreme rates on Earth
-Homeowners insurance premiums rose 21% last year. Climate change is partly to blame, experts say
also btw...
This Is How We Know When the World Has Its Hottest Day - "Scientists declared that back-to-back days earlier this month were the hottest ever recorded. To do so, they analyzed 100 million data points."
How Economic Damage Will Drive Climate Migration - "A new book charts the forces that will shape massive US population shifts in the coming decades."
“Over the slow change of 25 years, an economically robust community shriveled into a real depressed zone with very little farming remaining, a mostly elderly population and little to no income,” says Abrahm Lustgarten, a climate journalist who reported on Crowley in 2016 as part of a ProPublica series on the water crisis in the American West.-Florida Hurricanes Risk Wiping Out Reserves of State Reinsurer
In his new book, On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America, Lustgarten revisits Crowley and other climate-vulnerable locales to explore the intersection between economics and a warming planet, and how these forces will shape the massive population shifts expected in the US in coming decades.
While climate migration analysis often considers catastrophic events like wildfires and hurricanes, Lustgarten focuses on the “steady creep of subtle change” — declining crop yields, for example, the rising cost of insurance, health care and energy from California to Florida.
-'Climate Gentrification' Will Displace One Million People in Miami Alone
-In the South, sea level rise accelerates at some of the most extreme rates on Earth
-Homeowners insurance premiums rose 21% last year. Climate change is partly to blame, experts say
also btw...
This Is How We Know When the World Has Its Hottest Day - "Scientists declared that back-to-back days earlier this month were the hottest ever recorded. To do so, they analyzed 100 million data points."
Great. This can only accelerate Indiana’s drive to be the Florida/Texas of the north.
posted by Thorzdad at 8:21 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 8:21 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
And yet I keep seeing articles claiming that various Sun Belt states are the best states to live in / retire to.
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:25 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by Greg_Ace at 8:25 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
My husband's mom is working 3 jobs to pay her 30 year mortgage in Florida, which is now unbearably hot for half the year. We warned her away from moving down there for exactly this reason, but at the time she did not believe that climate change was real.
She still might not believe in anthropogenic climate change actually, it's the earth's 'natural shift'.
posted by subdee at 8:29 AM on July 31 [3 favorites]
She still might not believe in anthropogenic climate change actually, it's the earth's 'natural shift'.
posted by subdee at 8:29 AM on July 31 [3 favorites]
I mean, parts of Florida were already unbearably hot for half the year, but now they're even MORE unbearably hot.
posted by subdee at 8:30 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by subdee at 8:30 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
And that's again if you can move. The interview with the climate migration author acknowledges that yes, the US is a rich country but those riches are disporportionate for the population. Those who have capital will move; the poor will be left behind unless the government helps them out.
Speaking for where I live now (Canada), I used to hear way less A/C units when I moved to this country in 2009 as compared to the familiar drone of them in the South. Now it's comparable. I notice a lot more homes with a/c, whether it be window units/central. I am on Lake Ontario and it's always been humid here but our summers have been noticeably hotter.
I've mentioned many times on the Blue that my estranged dad lives on an literal island community in the Gulf of Mexico and still doesn't think climate change is a thing.
posted by Kitteh at 8:31 AM on July 31 [6 favorites]
Speaking for where I live now (Canada), I used to hear way less A/C units when I moved to this country in 2009 as compared to the familiar drone of them in the South. Now it's comparable. I notice a lot more homes with a/c, whether it be window units/central. I am on Lake Ontario and it's always been humid here but our summers have been noticeably hotter.
I've mentioned many times on the Blue that my estranged dad lives on an literal island community in the Gulf of Mexico and still doesn't think climate change is a thing.
posted by Kitteh at 8:31 AM on July 31 [6 favorites]
And yet I keep seeing articles claiming that various Sun Belt states are the best states to live in / retire to.
The people who are already there need to find chumps to buy their property and be left holding the bag.
posted by notoriety public at 8:58 AM on July 31 [25 favorites]
The people who are already there need to find chumps to buy their property and be left holding the bag.
posted by notoriety public at 8:58 AM on July 31 [25 favorites]
Florida is a special fun case because any significant amount of ocean level rise is going to render vast amounts of it underwater. I mean already there are reports of people living on the built-up islands and near the intracoastal waterway whose streets and yards are regularly saturated with water, and it's not from rain, it comes up through the porous limestone -- at spring tides most often. You can't build levees to hold the water back in Florida, because it doesn't roll in, it rises up.
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:07 AM on July 31 [18 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:07 AM on July 31 [18 favorites]
People care about climate, but they also care about the cost of housing. I know people who relocated from a wonderful climate in northern California to the southern California desert, where you can barely go outdoors for months because they, like so many others, couldn't afford to stay in the Bay Area.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:27 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 9:27 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
Turns out Aquaman isn't buying houses.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:28 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:28 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
I'm super glad my parents sold my grandmother's Boca Raton condo when she moved back to Michigan for good. They were considering keeping it in the family as both my folks and my uncle could have used it as a vacation place, but I was pretty bearish on it for climate reasons, and I think I was correct. (Grandma moved back north because she has outlived everyone she used to know in the retirement community and she has family a block away in MI).
posted by restless_nomad at 9:29 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
posted by restless_nomad at 9:29 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
You can't build levees to hold the water back in Florida, because it doesn't roll in, it rises up.
I mean, even Queenslanders figured out they had to put houses on stilts in areas that flood regularly.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:31 AM on July 31 [2 favorites]
I mean, even Queenslanders figured out they had to put houses on stilts in areas that flood regularly.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:31 AM on July 31 [2 favorites]
People care about climate, but they also care about the cost of housing.
That's kind of my gut feeling as well - like, yes, climate may play a part, but I think there's also a feeling that housing in the Sun Belt is super expensive and it's just not "worth it" for a lot of people any more. I left SoCal a while ago for work in the Midwest and while I could potentially afford to buy a house on just my own salary in the places I lived there, there's no way I could ever do that in SoCal; the only reason I'm back in SoCal now is because I inherited a house. Add in the rise of remote work availability and maybe a lot of people realizing that Midwestern cities have a lot to offer even if you have to bust out a snow shovel once in a while.
posted by LionIndex at 9:41 AM on July 31 [3 favorites]
That's kind of my gut feeling as well - like, yes, climate may play a part, but I think there's also a feeling that housing in the Sun Belt is super expensive and it's just not "worth it" for a lot of people any more. I left SoCal a while ago for work in the Midwest and while I could potentially afford to buy a house on just my own salary in the places I lived there, there's no way I could ever do that in SoCal; the only reason I'm back in SoCal now is because I inherited a house. Add in the rise of remote work availability and maybe a lot of people realizing that Midwestern cities have a lot to offer even if you have to bust out a snow shovel once in a while.
posted by LionIndex at 9:41 AM on July 31 [3 favorites]
Which all leads me to the depressing thought of "if you think housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver are bad now, wait till climate flight starts in earnest."
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:49 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 9:49 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
I've mentioned this before but my wife's cousin and her husband moved from Chicago to Phoenix back in the 80s to "get away from the cold." Cousin and husband are now in their 70s. Cousin's father (now 99) moved in with them around 1990 "to get away from the cold."
This entire household is now trapped in their homes, their cars and trips to air conditioned grocery stores and other essential places. 99 year old is trapped in the house and trips to his doctor. For decades now.
It's regularly 100 degrees F there, and often much hotter. It was crazy to move there in the '80s, it's outright dangerous to live there now.
posted by SoberHighland at 9:54 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
This entire household is now trapped in their homes, their cars and trips to air conditioned grocery stores and other essential places. 99 year old is trapped in the house and trips to his doctor. For decades now.
It's regularly 100 degrees F there, and often much hotter. It was crazy to move there in the '80s, it's outright dangerous to live there now.
posted by SoberHighland at 9:54 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
Yeah, this is all the voluntary migration stuff, where the wealthy with mobility pick and choose. No way is this country prepared, or will be prepared for the involuntary migration that is inevitable as places become uninhabitable. I've been singing this tune for 20 years as I've witnessed the influx into the PNW. As winters get milder here in places that have traditionally had 4 seasons (eastern washington), the snowbirds will stay and those crusty "no-neighbors" climate denying republicans will really start to have their faces eaten by the leopards they've been feedin'.
posted by OHenryPacey at 10:01 AM on July 31 [9 favorites]
posted by OHenryPacey at 10:01 AM on July 31 [9 favorites]
Which all leads me to the depressing thought of "if you think housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver are bad now, wait till climate flight starts in earnest."
Yep. Just with plausible non-climate economic migration like I mentioned, costs were already skyrocketing where I lived in the Midwest; I'd expect that to accelerate.
posted by LionIndex at 10:02 AM on July 31
Yep. Just with plausible non-climate economic migration like I mentioned, costs were already skyrocketing where I lived in the Midwest; I'd expect that to accelerate.
posted by LionIndex at 10:02 AM on July 31
Yep. Just with plausible non-climate economic migration like I mentioned, costs were already skyrocketing where I lived in the Midwest; I'd expect that to accelerate.
My family had been scattered to the winds for a long time but over the past 10 years, skyrocketing housing costs on the coasts sent us all back to the Great Lakes region. When I bought a house for my mom last year, it seemed obvious from the bidding wars and the scant stock that it was more or less going to be the last affordable year in her small midwest city.* (Fortunately, it does seem that her city is working to address the housing situation. There's a lot of new construction, most of it multi-unit, so it is possible the situation there may not yet become apocalyptic.)
*Yes, yes, I know, everything is still affordable compared to SF, NYC, and LA, The Only Cities That Matter, but as a midwesterner on a midwestern salary, I would personally no longer be able to afford to buy the house I bought eleven months ago.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:25 AM on July 31 [6 favorites]
My family had been scattered to the winds for a long time but over the past 10 years, skyrocketing housing costs on the coasts sent us all back to the Great Lakes region. When I bought a house for my mom last year, it seemed obvious from the bidding wars and the scant stock that it was more or less going to be the last affordable year in her small midwest city.* (Fortunately, it does seem that her city is working to address the housing situation. There's a lot of new construction, most of it multi-unit, so it is possible the situation there may not yet become apocalyptic.)
*Yes, yes, I know, everything is still affordable compared to SF, NYC, and LA, The Only Cities That Matter, but as a midwesterner on a midwestern salary, I would personally no longer be able to afford to buy the house I bought eleven months ago.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:25 AM on July 31 [6 favorites]
My parents and aunts and uncles having chosen to retire in Pittsburgh, Rhode Island, and Cape Cod instead of Florida look almost prescient now.
Except for the bit where they're "near the beach" in Rhode Island and Cape Cod, because they could end up a whole lot nearer the beach someday....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:36 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
Except for the bit where they're "near the beach" in Rhode Island and Cape Cod, because they could end up a whole lot nearer the beach someday....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 10:36 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
This entire household is now trapped in their homes, their cars and trips to air conditioned grocery stores and other essential places. 99 year old is trapped in the house and trips to his doctor.
Absolutely true, which is why I'd never move to Phoenix, but isn't the same true of Chicago in the winter if you're old? Healthy people can spend some time outside when it's 20F or 100F, but are still going to basically be stuck indoors either way. But frail people really have to be inside at either of those extremes. And once it gets to 0F or 120F, almost everyone is forced inside.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:53 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
Absolutely true, which is why I'd never move to Phoenix, but isn't the same true of Chicago in the winter if you're old? Healthy people can spend some time outside when it's 20F or 100F, but are still going to basically be stuck indoors either way. But frail people really have to be inside at either of those extremes. And once it gets to 0F or 120F, almost everyone is forced inside.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 10:53 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
Maybe for people in fragile health it isn't, but going outside for extended periods of time in -15 degree weather is very manageable with the right clothing.
posted by Ferreous at 10:54 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
posted by Ferreous at 10:54 AM on July 31 [4 favorites]
and furthermore: finding activities to do outside during the long winters is key to staying sane in cold weather climates. There's a reason that so many people up here take up ice fishing, cross country skiing, snow shoeing, snow mobile trips, cold weather camping, ice skating, etc. I see children under the age of 5 outside at the park by my home every winter playing in well below freezing weather. Maintaining sidewalks is a civic duty that allows people who might need mobility aids to keep their ability to get around when it snows.
There's nothing you can do to make a sidewalk in direct sun at 110 degrees and 90% humidity safe for your average person.
posted by Ferreous at 11:02 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
There's nothing you can do to make a sidewalk in direct sun at 110 degrees and 90% humidity safe for your average person.
posted by Ferreous at 11:02 AM on July 31 [5 favorites]
the involuntary migration that is inevitable as places become uninhabitable
That's a crucial point. Here in Denver, we got a good taste of this when Abbott started sending busloads of asylum seekers to us. While I think the city handled it reasonably well after some learning pains, the terror of our neighboring municipalities that Taxpayer Money might be spent on someone other than themselves was striking. What are you gonna do when 30,000 *American citizens* arrive in a single month because Houston has become uninhabitable? There's just so little resilience in the system. Handing out snowpants to people camped on the street during a frigid winter, in plain view of a bunch of empty, heated office towers... We're going to have to get a lot more flexible.
posted by McBearclaw at 11:14 AM on July 31 [7 favorites]
That's a crucial point. Here in Denver, we got a good taste of this when Abbott started sending busloads of asylum seekers to us. While I think the city handled it reasonably well after some learning pains, the terror of our neighboring municipalities that Taxpayer Money might be spent on someone other than themselves was striking. What are you gonna do when 30,000 *American citizens* arrive in a single month because Houston has become uninhabitable? There's just so little resilience in the system. Handing out snowpants to people camped on the street during a frigid winter, in plain view of a bunch of empty, heated office towers... We're going to have to get a lot more flexible.
posted by McBearclaw at 11:14 AM on July 31 [7 favorites]
What are you gonna do when 30,000 *American citizens* arrive in a single month because Houston has become uninhabitable.
About 15,000-30,000 people move to the Houston area every month, currently. This report is only about internal migration, on immigration the sunbelt is dominating.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:34 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
About 15,000-30,000 people move to the Houston area every month, currently. This report is only about internal migration, on immigration the sunbelt is dominating.
posted by The_Vegetables at 11:34 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
I foresee quite a few of the "rust belt" cities benefitting from this over the next few decades: Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Rochester, Erie, etc. Infrastructure is already there (for the most part), just missing some industry and economic growth, and (sometimes) the people to drive the same. Three years ago we moved from HCOL Northern NJ to LCOL Southern Tier New York. Couldn't be happier. Luckily found a well-paying job in one of the last company towns in the country and we bought a house that's 5x as large as something we could could afford in NNJ and costs a fraction of the price.
Having said that; I can't believe there isn't a real bakery in our large town. There used to be one. IMO, there's enough population to support one. Maybe I'll keep honing my baking skills and will open a bakery as I near retirement. Come visit us in the Finger Lakes. You'll love it here.
posted by damienbarrett at 11:37 AM on July 31 [9 favorites]
Having said that; I can't believe there isn't a real bakery in our large town. There used to be one. IMO, there's enough population to support one. Maybe I'll keep honing my baking skills and will open a bakery as I near retirement. Come visit us in the Finger Lakes. You'll love it here.
posted by damienbarrett at 11:37 AM on July 31 [9 favorites]
Counterpoint to this: going outside for extended periods of time in -15 degree weather is very manageable with the right clothing.
Technically is True but it's also fucking unpleasant to shovel snow at 6am after 4 months of it already being winter, or at 6pm in the dark after work...
note too all those winter activities do cost money, for the access, for the gear, for the clothes. I'm not even a winter hater - I just spent most of my life around the Great Lakes and i'm just over it.
posted by djseafood at 11:41 AM on July 31 [7 favorites]
Technically is True but it's also fucking unpleasant to shovel snow at 6am after 4 months of it already being winter, or at 6pm in the dark after work...
note too all those winter activities do cost money, for the access, for the gear, for the clothes. I'm not even a winter hater - I just spent most of my life around the Great Lakes and i'm just over it.
posted by djseafood at 11:41 AM on July 31 [7 favorites]
Sorry, to be clear - I was talking about internally displaced persons arriving in Denver without a place to live. I mention citizenship only because that takes the reflexive "Deport them!" option off the table.
posted by McBearclaw at 11:44 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by McBearclaw at 11:44 AM on July 31 [1 favorite]
Dealing with winter isn't fun sure, but the idea of "not having to deal with winter" is a big part of what got us into this shitshow of people moving to completely unsustainable places en masse.
posted by Ferreous at 12:01 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by Ferreous at 12:01 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
Yeah, who's laughing now Buffalo?... C'mon with the snow jokes... I've heard them all, but maybe ya got a new one
.yeah. I didn't think so...
posted by Czjewel at 12:09 PM on July 31
.yeah. I didn't think so...
posted by Czjewel at 12:09 PM on July 31
Absolutely true, which is why I'd never move to Phoenix, but isn't the same true of Chicago in the winter if you're old? Healthy people can spend some time outside when it's 20F or 100F, but are still going to basically be stuck indoors either way. But frail people really have to be inside at either of those extremes. And once it gets to 0F or 120F, almost everyone is forced inside.
So, I'm not going to claim to know the duration/days per year of extreme high temps in Phoenix but days in Chicago below ~20F are actually not that frequent, at least not anymore. Last year we only had a literal handful, as in maybe 3, days below 0. Every now and then we get a weeklong polar vortex situation, sure. But most of winter is a still miserable, but not hazardous, slog through temps that hover between 30-35 F. From a safety standpoint it's not equivalent to an entire season of actively dangerous temps.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 12:13 PM on July 31 [7 favorites]
So, I'm not going to claim to know the duration/days per year of extreme high temps in Phoenix but days in Chicago below ~20F are actually not that frequent, at least not anymore. Last year we only had a literal handful, as in maybe 3, days below 0. Every now and then we get a weeklong polar vortex situation, sure. But most of winter is a still miserable, but not hazardous, slog through temps that hover between 30-35 F. From a safety standpoint it's not equivalent to an entire season of actively dangerous temps.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 12:13 PM on July 31 [7 favorites]
And the water needs of Phoenix, of which there isn't enough of.
I haven't been down in the SE in a while, but used to go down every late July for an event in Atlanta. And I drove there from Seattle each time, (for medical reasons I don't fly if I can drive it, and, road trips across the west are the best, but I digress). Last trip was in probably, (checks dates on photos) 2018, before things started getting weird temp wise. I think in 2017 I visited my HS BF in Miami Beach. About 1/3 of the streets near his place were flooded. It was crazy. Certainly seems like a lot of Florida is going down.
But even back then, before "The Hottening", most of the KA-MO-S IL-KY-TN line and points south were just unbearably hot. I grew up in Kansas City, so I get 100+ with high humidity, but not like the SE. Can't even imagine what Houston feels like.
To be fair, the upper MW cities, (Minn, Det, Milw, etc.) are also pretty gnarly in the summer (hot, humid, have some mosquitos and biting flies!!!), I don't know enough about the NE to comment on weather. Apparently the Finger Lakes are nice...
posted by Windopaene at 1:54 PM on July 31 [2 favorites]
I haven't been down in the SE in a while, but used to go down every late July for an event in Atlanta. And I drove there from Seattle each time, (for medical reasons I don't fly if I can drive it, and, road trips across the west are the best, but I digress). Last trip was in probably, (checks dates on photos) 2018, before things started getting weird temp wise. I think in 2017 I visited my HS BF in Miami Beach. About 1/3 of the streets near his place were flooded. It was crazy. Certainly seems like a lot of Florida is going down.
But even back then, before "The Hottening", most of the KA-MO-S IL-KY-TN line and points south were just unbearably hot. I grew up in Kansas City, so I get 100+ with high humidity, but not like the SE. Can't even imagine what Houston feels like.
To be fair, the upper MW cities, (Minn, Det, Milw, etc.) are also pretty gnarly in the summer (hot, humid, have some mosquitos and biting flies!!!), I don't know enough about the NE to comment on weather. Apparently the Finger Lakes are nice...
posted by Windopaene at 1:54 PM on July 31 [2 favorites]
Absolutely true, which is why I'd never move to Phoenix, but isn't the same true of Chicago in the winter if you're old? Healthy people can spend some time outside when it's 20F or 100F, but are still going to basically be stuck indoors either way.
Properly designed northern cities have linked up their most densely populated areas underground. In those communities you can keep walking for miles because all the buildings that can do so have been linked to underground pedways. In Montreal, for example, you can walk underground a distance equivalent to at least five metro stops, without ever taking the metro that goes in that direction. The pedways link to the train station, McGill University, Dawson College and numerous gyms, restaurants, retail areas and entertainment venues. If you take the metro you can get much, much farther. You don't need to bother with outdoor clothing, or worry about slipping on ice.
The Canadian city I live in is small and not well developed, but we have a pedway too, which links senior housing, the library, the aquatic centre, two malls, two hotels, city hall, and the sports stadium, as well as a market with stalls including a fishmonger, a green grocer, a butcher and a boulangerie.
If the weather gets colder, or if our seniors start to stay home during the winter, I think we can expect to see extensive additions to the pedways in northern cities.
posted by Jane the Brown at 2:36 PM on July 31 [8 favorites]
Properly designed northern cities have linked up their most densely populated areas underground. In those communities you can keep walking for miles because all the buildings that can do so have been linked to underground pedways. In Montreal, for example, you can walk underground a distance equivalent to at least five metro stops, without ever taking the metro that goes in that direction. The pedways link to the train station, McGill University, Dawson College and numerous gyms, restaurants, retail areas and entertainment venues. If you take the metro you can get much, much farther. You don't need to bother with outdoor clothing, or worry about slipping on ice.
The Canadian city I live in is small and not well developed, but we have a pedway too, which links senior housing, the library, the aquatic centre, two malls, two hotels, city hall, and the sports stadium, as well as a market with stalls including a fishmonger, a green grocer, a butcher and a boulangerie.
If the weather gets colder, or if our seniors start to stay home during the winter, I think we can expect to see extensive additions to the pedways in northern cities.
posted by Jane the Brown at 2:36 PM on July 31 [8 favorites]
Buffalo is mostly pretty nice in summer so far -- the same mechanism that makes lake-effect snow turns into a half-assed regional a/c. Glancing at accuweather, 1 day over 90 this summer.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:38 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 2:38 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
"Turns out Aquaman isn't buying houses."
I got that reference!
posted by symbioid at 4:13 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
I got that reference!
posted by symbioid at 4:13 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
Chicago hasn’t had a four month winter in a decade. My massive 32 inch 13 horsepower snow monster didn’t see any snow this last season, and the winter before was fired up 3 times. I feel like there is a general disconnect between the reality and people’s imaginations hell the coldest it’s ever been here is only -16.
posted by zenon at 5:56 PM on July 31 [7 favorites]
posted by zenon at 5:56 PM on July 31 [7 favorites]
Stay the hell outta my rust belt.
posted by slogger at 6:35 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
posted by slogger at 6:35 PM on July 31 [1 favorite]
Munich Re sounds alarm on hurricanes and temperatures - "German insurer Munich Re warned on Wednesday of a severe hurricane season in the Atlantic and rising temperatures globally that showed 'no signs of stopping'. The world's largest reinsurer made the grim outlook in a regular half-year report on natural catastrophes... Munich Re said that high water temperatures due to climate change are helping to energize the formation of hurricanes and that the El Nino weather pattern this year would not help mitigate the storms."
The dangerous effects of rising sea temperatures - "Scientists are increasingly concerned that the world's oceans are approaching the limits of their capacity to absorb heat."
posted by kliuless at 8:52 PM on July 31 [5 favorites]
The dangerous effects of rising sea temperatures - "Scientists are increasingly concerned that the world's oceans are approaching the limits of their capacity to absorb heat."
posted by kliuless at 8:52 PM on July 31 [5 favorites]
Insurance plus home buyer loans create interesting dynamics, where people cannot obtain loans to purchas houses they cannot insure, which then reduces their values. It'll all turn into slums full of people too poor to move.
Although migration projections should only worsen, currently even serious migration projections foresee much less migration than seemingly expected by people in this thread, and much of the migration shall be internal.
We'll still have disasterous levels of migration of courese, enough so that nations quietly restrict internal migration, ala address registrations in northern Europe.
posted by jeffburdges at 9:01 AM on August 1
Although migration projections should only worsen, currently even serious migration projections foresee much less migration than seemingly expected by people in this thread, and much of the migration shall be internal.
We'll still have disasterous levels of migration of courese, enough so that nations quietly restrict internal migration, ala address registrations in northern Europe.
posted by jeffburdges at 9:01 AM on August 1
Chicago hasn’t had a four month winter in a decade. My massive 32 inch 13 horsepower snow monster didn’t see any snow this last season, and the winter before was fired up 3 times. I feel like there is a general disconnect between the reality and people’s imaginations hell the coldest it’s ever been here is only -16.
Shhhh don't say that so loud! The spectre of our shitty weather is why a 2-bed apartment can still be had for less than 2K/mo.
Truly though the thing about Chicago is not that our extremes are so unbearable but that our median is so lousy. It's all quite survivable but we only really get like 15 actually pleasant days per year.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:54 AM on August 1 [2 favorites]
Shhhh don't say that so loud! The spectre of our shitty weather is why a 2-bed apartment can still be had for less than 2K/mo.
Truly though the thing about Chicago is not that our extremes are so unbearable but that our median is so lousy. It's all quite survivable but we only really get like 15 actually pleasant days per year.
posted by We put our faith in Blast Hardcheese at 10:54 AM on August 1 [2 favorites]
I have thought of saying that I live in the Sous Vide belt.
What is insidious is that oil and gas, along with the Department of Energy, is using climate forced displacement to cite new refineries and CO2 waste injection sites that will continue the fossil fuel era, on behalf of Joe Manchin.
The islands of Louisiana that were covered with BP's oil, one of them is going to be a CO2 waste injection field, theoretically. I think people should join Louisianans in opposing it.
Here's a land loss map through 2009, places where hurricanes and the ocean are taking habitable wetland away from Louisianans, and leaving open ocean.
Cameron and Plaquemines Parishes are the counties, if we are speaking at the level of this paper.
Here's a county map of displaced populations from Katrina and Rita, from Brookings.
Land converting to ocean leading to loss of population--namely 1 in 5 people are missing from 13 coastal parishes in Louisiana, including Orleans.
We have lost a congressional representative due to these changes in proportional population.
Here's a map of new LNG refineries, DAC and Ammonia facilities, and their pipelines.
It's much the same map. Oil companies are using the fractured social landscape to build new mega polluting facilities in communities desperate for local tax revenue.
Here's a petition of Louisiana Tribes to the United Nations on forced displacement.
Even though we lost a whole Oil refinery to climate change in Hurricane Ida --the Phillips66 alliance refinery, Venture Global LNG is building its LNG plant at a lower elevation.
The whole thing is such a recipe for misery, but I believe that the extent to which Louisianans can fight DOE, fight these DC companies and win, that will determine how fast the US transitions away from fossil energy.
posted by eustatic at 4:20 PM on August 1 [5 favorites]
What is insidious is that oil and gas, along with the Department of Energy, is using climate forced displacement to cite new refineries and CO2 waste injection sites that will continue the fossil fuel era, on behalf of Joe Manchin.
The islands of Louisiana that were covered with BP's oil, one of them is going to be a CO2 waste injection field, theoretically. I think people should join Louisianans in opposing it.
Here's a land loss map through 2009, places where hurricanes and the ocean are taking habitable wetland away from Louisianans, and leaving open ocean.
Cameron and Plaquemines Parishes are the counties, if we are speaking at the level of this paper.
Here's a county map of displaced populations from Katrina and Rita, from Brookings.
Land converting to ocean leading to loss of population--namely 1 in 5 people are missing from 13 coastal parishes in Louisiana, including Orleans.
We have lost a congressional representative due to these changes in proportional population.
Here's a map of new LNG refineries, DAC and Ammonia facilities, and their pipelines.
It's much the same map. Oil companies are using the fractured social landscape to build new mega polluting facilities in communities desperate for local tax revenue.
Here's a petition of Louisiana Tribes to the United Nations on forced displacement.
Even though we lost a whole Oil refinery to climate change in Hurricane Ida --the Phillips66 alliance refinery, Venture Global LNG is building its LNG plant at a lower elevation.
The whole thing is such a recipe for misery, but I believe that the extent to which Louisianans can fight DOE, fight these DC companies and win, that will determine how fast the US transitions away from fossil energy.
posted by eustatic at 4:20 PM on August 1 [5 favorites]
Does "CO2 waste injection field" mean the CCS bullshit?
Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions
posted by jeffburdges at 7:44 AM on August 2 [2 favorites]
Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions
posted by jeffburdges at 7:44 AM on August 2 [2 favorites]
fwiw...
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market - "Millions of US homes are underinsured because their premiums don't reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes."
A $1 Trillion Time Bomb Is Ticking in the Housing Market - "Millions of US homes are underinsured because their premiums don't reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes."
...US homeowners’ wildfire and flood risks are underinsured by $28.7 billion a year. As a result, more than 17 million homes, representing nearly 19% of total US home value, are at risk of suffering what could total $1.2 trillion in value destruction...posted by kliuless at 7:12 AM on August 3 [5 favorites]
The issue is that in many parts of the US, insurance premiums don’t reflect the risk of climate-fueled catastrophes, which is growing as the planet warms. A record 28 weather disasters in the US last year did $1 billion or more in damage, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. This year is on pace to at least match that record, with 15 such events so far — a tally that doesn’t yet include Hurricane Beryl, which might have caused $30 billion in damage.
Globally, the toll from natural disasters has topped $120 billion so far this year, the reinsurer Munich Re estimated this week. Only $62 billion of that was covered by insurance, a figure 70% higher than the long-term average. Most of this damage happened in the US, and much of it was borne by homeowners. Insurers have been raising premiums in response...
But premiums still aren’t high enough, mainly because almost nobody wants them to be. Homeowners aren’t fans of paying exorbitant insurance rates, and they tend to punish politicians who let them rise too much. Higher premiums also hurt property values, threatening tax revenue. The result is market manipulation like California’s Proposition 103, which sharply limits how much insurers can raise premiums. And even if insurers could increase rates willy-nilly, they might think twice about chasing off customers — especially when laws and regulations are designed to discourage homeowners from suing insurers for uncovered damage.
“Every part of our financial and legal system at this point is devoted, singularly devoted, to keeping the status quo in place,” Harvard Law School professor Susan Crawford said in the webinar. “It will be difficult for us to adapt.”
First Street used a hypothetical California home to illustrate just how wildly divorced from reality insurance costs can get in some places. Say our imaginary Californians started out in 2010 paying an annual $2,000 home-insurance premium. If that increased by 7% a year — the absolute most the state will allow, and highly unlikely in any case — that premium would have hit $4,820 in 2023. Yikes! And yet that would still be $2,900 short of what the price should be to truly reflect how much Hypothetical Insurance Inc. has at risk, First Street estimated, considering climate change, inflation, reinsurance and other costs.
No wonder insurance companies have been fleeing California, Florida and other risky areas in bunches, leaving real-life homeowners stuck relying on state insurers of last resort. These policies are expensive and often inadequate. The providers are also at constant risk of insolvency...
The logical solution is to price climate risk accurately, as the NFIP has started to try to do by finally ending its reliance on outdated flood maps. We’d no longer be subsidizing the building and rebuilding of homes in areas most vulnerable to chaotic weather. But the result of doing that all at once would be sudden, awkward price discovery in the housing market...
The past few winters in NYC have been mild. They wouldn’t bother me at all if it wasn’t dark so early. Oh, and it drying out my skin…
This summer, on the other hand, has been warmer than usual, unpleasant at times.
Still, I could see people moving back from FL, tax consequences aside.
posted by clark at 7:17 AM on August 4
This summer, on the other hand, has been warmer than usual, unpleasant at times.
Still, I could see people moving back from FL, tax consequences aside.
posted by clark at 7:17 AM on August 4
Thousands More People Are Moving In Than Out of Fire- and Flood-Prone America, Fueled by Migration to Texas and Florida - "Scores of people are moving to the parts of America endangered by wildfires, flooding and extreme heat—even as those dangers become more frequent and intense—according to a new report from Redfin..."[1,2,3,4]
Project 2025 Wants to Propel America Into Environmental Catastrophe - "Tracking emissions, managing pollutants, responding to natural disasters—even accurately predicting the weather—would all be trampled in a wave of privatization, deregulation, and unfettered fossil-fuel exploitation."[5]
Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions - "The fossil fuel industry's carbon capture bamboozle, explained."
posted by kliuless at 12:46 AM on August 6 [1 favorite]
- America’s high-fire-risk counties saw a net inflow of 63,000 people last year, driven by migration to Texas.
- High-flood-risk counties saw a net inflow of 16,000, driven by migration to Florida.
- Texas and Florida have attracted a lot of people in recent years because they offer low taxes, relatively affordable housing prices and are building more homes than anywhere else in the nation.
- Recent shifts in migration patterns in California and Florida may indicate that residents are becoming more responsive to climate risk. California’s high-fire-risk areas, for example, saw more people leave than move in last year—a reversal from 2022.
Climate change impacts threaten the stability of the US housing market. In response to growing concerns that increasing costs of flooding are not fully captured in property values, we quantify the magnitude of unpriced flood risk in the housing market by comparing the empirical and economically efficient prices for properties at risk. We find that residential properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by US$121–US$237 billion, depending on the discount rate. In general, highly overvalued properties are concentrated in counties along the coast with no flood risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. Low-income households are at greater risk of losing home equity from price deflation, and municipalities that are heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls. The consequences of these financial risks will depend on policy choices that influence who bears the costs of climate change.also btw...
Project 2025 Wants to Propel America Into Environmental Catastrophe - "Tracking emissions, managing pollutants, responding to natural disasters—even accurately predicting the weather—would all be trampled in a wave of privatization, deregulation, and unfettered fossil-fuel exploitation."[5]
Oil companies sold the public on a fake climate solution — and swindled taxpayers out of billions - "The fossil fuel industry's carbon capture bamboozle, explained."
posted by kliuless at 12:46 AM on August 6 [1 favorite]
Does "CO2 waste injection field" mean the CCS bullshit?
Yes, previously known, during the Obama years, as "Clean Coal", this was heavily promoted by Joe Manchin during Build Back Better / IRA negotiations, and now it's a part of his 'Energy Reform' bill promoting LNG
Most LNG terminals have CCS proposals attached, although it often costs more CO2 to inject the CO2 into the groundwater.
All the clean coal projects are back, as 'CCS'.
Manchin and Congress boosted the '45Q' tax credit--which is actually an advance annual payment from the US Treasury to ExxonMobil et al.
Louisiana, and the Gulf, is really moving to the next level, and the injection of CO2 for non Coal petrochemical plants involves arrays of 12-16 wells per CCS project, and we conventionally call that a 'field' although CCS doesn't target specific geological formations like traditional waste injection does.
Thus, 'Co2 waste injection field'
Anyway, we are far away from climate and migration. Only that, as our places hollow out, industry comes in and places hazards where people used to thrive and harvest, in order to sustain climate change on their financial behalf.
posted by eustatic at 6:47 PM on August 6 [1 favorite]
Yes, previously known, during the Obama years, as "Clean Coal", this was heavily promoted by Joe Manchin during Build Back Better / IRA negotiations, and now it's a part of his 'Energy Reform' bill promoting LNG
Most LNG terminals have CCS proposals attached, although it often costs more CO2 to inject the CO2 into the groundwater.
All the clean coal projects are back, as 'CCS'.
Manchin and Congress boosted the '45Q' tax credit--which is actually an advance annual payment from the US Treasury to ExxonMobil et al.
Louisiana, and the Gulf, is really moving to the next level, and the injection of CO2 for non Coal petrochemical plants involves arrays of 12-16 wells per CCS project, and we conventionally call that a 'field' although CCS doesn't target specific geological formations like traditional waste injection does.
Thus, 'Co2 waste injection field'
Anyway, we are far away from climate and migration. Only that, as our places hollow out, industry comes in and places hazards where people used to thrive and harvest, in order to sustain climate change on their financial behalf.
posted by eustatic at 6:47 PM on August 6 [1 favorite]
Exterminators kill rodents in their burrows using CO2 or other gases, like by placing dry ice into the burrow entrances. CCS can do the same to people. :)
"Residents of the small Mississippi town of Satartia were reportedly left unconscious and foaming at the mouth after being exposed to a cloud of carbon dioxide (CO2) which was released when a nearby pipeline burst in February 2020."
Via "Pipelines ferrying liquid CO2 have a kill zone radius for a reason.")
posted by jeffburdges at 9:14 PM on August 6
"Residents of the small Mississippi town of Satartia were reportedly left unconscious and foaming at the mouth after being exposed to a cloud of carbon dioxide (CO2) which was released when a nearby pipeline burst in February 2020."
Via "Pipelines ferrying liquid CO2 have a kill zone radius for a reason.")
posted by jeffburdges at 9:14 PM on August 6
"In Los Angeles alone, thousands of senior citizens have died while homeless in the past 10 years."
posted by jeffburdges at 1:43 PM on August 10
posted by jeffburdges at 1:43 PM on August 10
Hurricane Debby Is Fading But Florida’s Hellish Insurance Crisis Isn’t
"A toxic combination of climate change and poor governance is leaving Floridians in a crunch."
“Home insurance rates in Florida are among the highest in the nation, having increased by nearly 20 percent in 2023. The average homeowner there pays $10,996 per year; the national average is $2,377.” (via)
Amusingly Taylor Swift brings up Fortnight and her song Florida talks about moving there. lol
posted by jeffburdges at 7:42 AM on August 11
"A toxic combination of climate change and poor governance is leaving Floridians in a crunch."
“Home insurance rates in Florida are among the highest in the nation, having increased by nearly 20 percent in 2023. The average homeowner there pays $10,996 per year; the national average is $2,377.” (via)
Amusingly Taylor Swift brings up Fortnight and her song Florida talks about moving there. lol
posted by jeffburdges at 7:42 AM on August 11
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