Absolutely Nothing
August 4, 2024 2:45 AM Subscribe
More frightening still is that the stakes are becoming absolute all around. For China, Russia can’t lose in Ukraine or its most powerful ally against the West seeking to contain it will be formidably weakened. For Western leaders and their Asian allies, Russia can’t be allowed to win or the entire liberal order of open societies will be at risk of geopolitical bullying by well-armed autocrats, notably Xi, who they fear will come to believe seizing what they please by force will only be met with limited repercussions. from The World Is Assuming A Pre-War Posture [Noema]
Related:
World War War III May Already Have Started—in the Shadows [Reason]
U.S. not ready for global war, commission warns [Axios]
Related:
World War War III May Already Have Started—in the Shadows [Reason]
U.S. not ready for global war, commission warns [Axios]
Iran has a right to defend itself
posted by jy4m at 4:56 AM on August 4 [10 favorites]
posted by jy4m at 4:56 AM on August 4 [10 favorites]
The frenemy of my frenemy is my frenemy.
posted by UN at 5:14 AM on August 4 [15 favorites]
posted by UN at 5:14 AM on August 4 [15 favorites]
'I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.' - Albert Einstein.
posted by lalochezia at 5:16 AM on August 4 [17 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 5:16 AM on August 4 [17 favorites]
"Sticks, with grenades on the ends, thrown by parachuting maniacs." - George Miller
posted by Silentgoldfish at 5:28 AM on August 4 [23 favorites]
posted by Silentgoldfish at 5:28 AM on August 4 [23 favorites]
It does seem like the premise of the article could be resolved if Israel simply left Gaza and the West Bank and sent Netanyahu to be prosecuted.
I don't see anything ironclad or necessary about ethnic cleansing, and much of the conflict is centering around whether or not you support cleansing Palestine of Palestinians.
posted by constraint at 5:48 AM on August 4 [26 favorites]
I don't see anything ironclad or necessary about ethnic cleansing, and much of the conflict is centering around whether or not you support cleansing Palestine of Palestinians.
posted by constraint at 5:48 AM on August 4 [26 favorites]
I don't know if it's the start of World War III.
China still doesn't have a reliable ally. Even if Russia is basically bankrolled by the Chinese and North Korea to finish off Ukraine, where does that leave it? It's down a massive amount of manpower and materiel and its command structure has been proven to be utterly fucking useless. Who needs that in an ally? Like it was handy in WW2 when you could put two million Reds in AKs and 80,000 T-34s between Hitler and Moscow and tie up the 80% Germans on the Eastern Front but in a war of aggression?
They could maybe find it in a newly nationalist India but they'd both have to make concessions and bury a LOT of hatchets. Plus they have all this economic infrastructure tied up in Pakistan specifically to avoid Malacca in the event of a blockade while India's first move will be to reconquer Pakistan and start ethnically cleansing the place so I don't really see a China-India alliance happening.
I could see some major shit going down in the Middle East to keep Bibi out of prison but both Israel and Iran are surrounded by people who are basically let_them_fight.gif. A Harris administration is not going to put boots on the ground in Iran after how Bibi has stabbed them in the back continually, no matter how much Republicans try to beat them around the head with it in the media. If Trump wins he might let the carrier groups unleash air strikes on strategic targets but nobody wants the US in yet another war in the Middle East so I still don't see US boots on Iranian ground.
The only thing I'm worried about wrt WWIII is Trump pledging not to defend Taiwan. Should that come to pass it will cause economic chaos and the end of US hegemony. If anything, young white Trumpist males should be reminded that if he doesn't defend Taiwan that TSMC has all their fab facilities rigged to blow when the Chinese get close. Think the chip shortage was bad in 2021? TSMC blowing up their fabs would be a tech apocalypse. Hell, the price of an F-150 would double overnight.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:17 AM on August 4 [43 favorites]
China still doesn't have a reliable ally. Even if Russia is basically bankrolled by the Chinese and North Korea to finish off Ukraine, where does that leave it? It's down a massive amount of manpower and materiel and its command structure has been proven to be utterly fucking useless. Who needs that in an ally? Like it was handy in WW2 when you could put two million Reds in AKs and 80,000 T-34s between Hitler and Moscow and tie up the 80% Germans on the Eastern Front but in a war of aggression?
They could maybe find it in a newly nationalist India but they'd both have to make concessions and bury a LOT of hatchets. Plus they have all this economic infrastructure tied up in Pakistan specifically to avoid Malacca in the event of a blockade while India's first move will be to reconquer Pakistan and start ethnically cleansing the place so I don't really see a China-India alliance happening.
I could see some major shit going down in the Middle East to keep Bibi out of prison but both Israel and Iran are surrounded by people who are basically let_them_fight.gif. A Harris administration is not going to put boots on the ground in Iran after how Bibi has stabbed them in the back continually, no matter how much Republicans try to beat them around the head with it in the media. If Trump wins he might let the carrier groups unleash air strikes on strategic targets but nobody wants the US in yet another war in the Middle East so I still don't see US boots on Iranian ground.
The only thing I'm worried about wrt WWIII is Trump pledging not to defend Taiwan. Should that come to pass it will cause economic chaos and the end of US hegemony. If anything, young white Trumpist males should be reminded that if he doesn't defend Taiwan that TSMC has all their fab facilities rigged to blow when the Chinese get close. Think the chip shortage was bad in 2021? TSMC blowing up their fabs would be a tech apocalypse. Hell, the price of an F-150 would double overnight.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:17 AM on August 4 [43 favorites]
China still doesn't have a reliable ally. Even if Russia is basically bankrolled by the Chinese and North Korea to finish off Ukraine, where does that leave it? It's down a massive amount of manpower and materiel and its command structure has been proven to be utterly fucking useless. Who needs that in an ally?
I don’t think China has any illusions as to Russia being a dependable ally. China pretty likely sees Russia more as a useful tool with which to distract and/or bog-down the west (especially the US) in Ukraine and eastern Europe. Get them all tied-up in a never-ending quagmire, depleting their arsenals, in order to make defending Taiwan as difficult as possible.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:08 AM on August 4 [7 favorites]
I don’t think China has any illusions as to Russia being a dependable ally. China pretty likely sees Russia more as a useful tool with which to distract and/or bog-down the west (especially the US) in Ukraine and eastern Europe. Get them all tied-up in a never-ending quagmire, depleting their arsenals, in order to make defending Taiwan as difficult as possible.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:08 AM on August 4 [7 favorites]
Iran has a right to defend itself
That’s true about any nation, though. I mean, Ukraine could quite legitimately launch a defensive attack on Iran, due to the latter’s supplying Russia with munitions, especially drones.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:11 AM on August 4 [7 favorites]
That’s true about any nation, though. I mean, Ukraine could quite legitimately launch a defensive attack on Iran, due to the latter’s supplying Russia with munitions, especially drones.
posted by Thorzdad at 7:11 AM on August 4 [7 favorites]
I don’t think China has any illusions as to Russia being a dependable ally. China pretty likely sees Russia more as a useful tool with which to distract and/or bog-down the west (especially the US) in Ukraine and eastern Europe. Get them all tied-up in a never-ending quagmire, depleting their arsenals, in order to make defending Taiwan as difficult as possible.
The West is basically throwing less than 0.1% of their GDP at the Ukraine war. China cannot fight a war against the United States, little alone the West, unilaterally.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:18 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
The West is basically throwing less than 0.1% of their GDP at the Ukraine war. China cannot fight a war against the United States, little alone the West, unilaterally.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:18 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
Stay hydrated everyone
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:31 AM on August 4 [14 favorites]
posted by JoeXIII007 at 7:31 AM on August 4 [14 favorites]
I follow this stuff fairly closely. This writer is an idiot.
posted by history is a weapon at 8:15 AM on August 4 [26 favorites]
posted by history is a weapon at 8:15 AM on August 4 [26 favorites]
> I follow this stuff fairly closely. This writer is an idiot.
I used to follow this stuff closely and gave up some while back. But my instinct is that this assessment is correct. TFA is five months old and already it is easily seen to be shrill alarmism about events that have already faded from relevance, in other words it's about 4 months past its sell-by date. And this
> For China, Russia can’t lose in Ukraine or its most powerful ally against the West seeking to contain it will be formidably weakened.
is just nonsense which completely misreads what's going on between China and Russia.
This thread is probably 10 minutes of my life that I won't be getting back.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:35 AM on August 4 [12 favorites]
I used to follow this stuff closely and gave up some while back. But my instinct is that this assessment is correct. TFA is five months old and already it is easily seen to be shrill alarmism about events that have already faded from relevance, in other words it's about 4 months past its sell-by date. And this
> For China, Russia can’t lose in Ukraine or its most powerful ally against the West seeking to contain it will be formidably weakened.
is just nonsense which completely misreads what's going on between China and Russia.
This thread is probably 10 minutes of my life that I won't be getting back.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:35 AM on August 4 [12 favorites]
Axios:
posted by Mitheral at 9:11 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
Congress "has become a major impediment to national security" and fails to fund the government in a timely manner, while billions of dollars are wasted and new projects are kneecapped.Well, they aren't wrong about that.
posted by Mitheral at 9:11 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
The war in Ukraine is an absolute tragedy, created for no rational reason. It harms both Russia, Ukraine, and the rest of the world. I believe we should back Ukraine to the hilt.
Yet… cynically, isn’t it a no-lose strategic situation for the West? Every day one of our main enemies reveals itself to be far less militarily capable than anyone thought. The idea that the former Soviet Union is fighting a chronically debilitating war within its own borders is like an amazing uncovenanted gift to all its former enemies.
If Russia loses, it stands humiliatingly revealed as no more than a middling country whose only trump card is its decrepit nukes. If the war remains bogged down, it is slowly bleeding prestige and resources. If somehow Russia wins, they get an occupied country that will fight them tooth and nail, worse than their disastrous venture in Afghanistan. It is all a testament to the fact that dictators are so often fucking stupid.
For some reason western commentators have often bigged up the supposed subtlety of that dim-witted thug Putin. But what a disaster. It’s just impossible to imagine a similarly irrational and humiliating venture in the West. For something broadly similar we would have to imagine the USA trying to ‘claim back’ Canada by military aggression and being sent back with a bloody nose from their comprehensive failure to occupy Toronto.
posted by Phanx at 10:01 AM on August 4 [16 favorites]
Yet… cynically, isn’t it a no-lose strategic situation for the West? Every day one of our main enemies reveals itself to be far less militarily capable than anyone thought. The idea that the former Soviet Union is fighting a chronically debilitating war within its own borders is like an amazing uncovenanted gift to all its former enemies.
If Russia loses, it stands humiliatingly revealed as no more than a middling country whose only trump card is its decrepit nukes. If the war remains bogged down, it is slowly bleeding prestige and resources. If somehow Russia wins, they get an occupied country that will fight them tooth and nail, worse than their disastrous venture in Afghanistan. It is all a testament to the fact that dictators are so often fucking stupid.
For some reason western commentators have often bigged up the supposed subtlety of that dim-witted thug Putin. But what a disaster. It’s just impossible to imagine a similarly irrational and humiliating venture in the West. For something broadly similar we would have to imagine the USA trying to ‘claim back’ Canada by military aggression and being sent back with a bloody nose from their comprehensive failure to occupy Toronto.
posted by Phanx at 10:01 AM on August 4 [16 favorites]
For something broadly similar we would have to imagine the USA trying to ‘claim back’ Canada by military aggression and being sent back with a bloody nose from their comprehensive failure
You say this as if it hasn't happened before.
posted by pwnguin at 10:29 AM on August 4 [6 favorites]
You say this as if it hasn't happened before.
posted by pwnguin at 10:29 AM on August 4 [6 favorites]
You say this as if it hasn't happened before.
Never forget
posted by 1024 at 11:01 AM on August 4 [3 favorites]
Never forget
posted by 1024 at 11:01 AM on August 4 [3 favorites]
yeah, those stupid dictators and their disastrous ventures in Afghanistan, when will they learn
posted by ryanrs at 11:01 AM on August 4 [6 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 11:01 AM on August 4 [6 favorites]
yeah, those stupid dictators and their disastrous ventures in Afghanistan, when will they learn
When they finally have the last laugh
posted by 1024 at 11:06 AM on August 4 [4 favorites]
When they finally have the last laugh
posted by 1024 at 11:06 AM on August 4 [4 favorites]
It’s just impossible to imagine a similarly irrational and humiliating venture in the West.
I know. Every time I try to imagine it I just see protests in the street and then I see our leaders, listening to the people and ending the hostilities.
posted by Ashenmote at 11:09 AM on August 4 [4 favorites]
I know. Every time I try to imagine it I just see protests in the street and then I see our leaders, listening to the people and ending the hostilities.
posted by Ashenmote at 11:09 AM on August 4 [4 favorites]
>> Iran has a right to defend itself
> That’s true about any nation
nations 1. on the whole are not a good idea 2. don’t have any inherent right to exist.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 11:50 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
> That’s true about any nation
nations 1. on the whole are not a good idea 2. don’t have any inherent right to exist.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 11:50 AM on August 4 [8 favorites]
It seems to me that we are in a strange new quasi-war. The aggressive authoritarian regimes ( as opposed to authoritarian governments like Syria that are content with torturing only their own people) are testing the liberal world order. What they are finding is that the liberal rest of the world can collectively neutralize full-throated invasions with very little effort on its part. The authoritarians have the tiger by the tail now. If they persist in the attack, they will be ground down to nothing. If they abandon the attack, the entire world will see that the 'weak' rule-of-law liberals are surprisingly tough and that the authoritarians are paper tigers. So Putin is doing the only thing left to do: use information operations to get the liberal world order to self deter and to abandon the struggle. Which puts defenders of the liberal order in the invidious position of arguing "let's keep killing Russians until they give up".
posted by SnowRottie at 12:01 PM on August 4 [13 favorites]
posted by SnowRottie at 12:01 PM on August 4 [13 favorites]
If anything, young white Trumpist males should be reminded that if he doesn't defend Taiwan that TSMC has all their fab facilities rigged to blow when the Chinese get close.I have no idea why people believe this. There is absolutely zero reason for TSMC to commit suicide.
posted by ndr at 12:25 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
My own armchair, home-baked, at-a-distance take: I've assumed that in private, China's leadership has been quietly furious at Putin for the invasion of Ukraine, after China poured so much into Belt and Road infrastructure in the years before--all that roadbuilding and general infrastructure investment in Central Asia is useless now. China wanted the ability to put stuff on semi trucks and ship it all the way to Poland; kiss that idea goodbye for a while.
posted by gimonca at 12:53 PM on August 4 [10 favorites]
posted by gimonca at 12:53 PM on August 4 [10 favorites]
It’s just impossible to imagine a similarly irrational and humiliating venture in the West
well the Vietnam War didn't happen in the west but involved a western power invading them, and being fairly well humiliated in the end. At least the US was never stupid enough to invade Afghan...
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oopsie!
posted by supermedusa at 12:56 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
well the Vietnam War didn't happen in the west but involved a western power invading them, and being fairly well humiliated in the end. At least the US was never stupid enough to invade Afghan...
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oopsie!
posted by supermedusa at 12:56 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
July 3rd 1979 big z Brzezinski tells Jimmy Carter , we have an opportunity to give the Soviets a Vietnam of their own ...
posted by hortense at 1:07 PM on August 4 [3 favorites]
posted by hortense at 1:07 PM on August 4 [3 favorites]
thing is, was he wrong.
posted by clavdivs at 1:16 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 1:16 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
If anything, young white Trumpist males should be reminded that if he doesn't defend Taiwan that TSMC has all their fab facilities rigged to blow when the Chinese get close.
------------------------------
I have no idea why people believe this. There is absolutely zero reason for TSMC to commit suicide.
------------------------------
This idea has been speculated/fantasized about for many years, and openly suggested by American military press since at least 2021.
In the past year or so, both TSMC and ASML have confirmed that TSMC will cease to produce ships if Taiwan is invaded. I somewhat doubt that translates to blowing up TSMC facilities, since ASML can remotely disable the EUV machines essential for chipmaking. Regardless, the main point of the top poster stands: worldwide chip shortage is all but guaranteed if China invades Taiwan.
posted by fatehunter at 1:49 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
------------------------------
I have no idea why people believe this. There is absolutely zero reason for TSMC to commit suicide.
------------------------------
This idea has been speculated/fantasized about for many years, and openly suggested by American military press since at least 2021.
In the past year or so, both TSMC and ASML have confirmed that TSMC will cease to produce ships if Taiwan is invaded. I somewhat doubt that translates to blowing up TSMC facilities, since ASML can remotely disable the EUV machines essential for chipmaking. Regardless, the main point of the top poster stands: worldwide chip shortage is all but guaranteed if China invades Taiwan.
posted by fatehunter at 1:49 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
Years ago, when I was teaching in China: one of the biggest things is that VE day (September 3rd) was a bigger event than National Day (October 1st)- much more pageantry, songs, etc. I talked with my Chinese colleagues at the school about Chinese-Japanese tensions (Senkoku islands, etc.).... and what stuck out was the headmistress saying "no, America and China will never go to war, we do too much business together. You're our best trading partner." That was back at the very beginning of Xi Jinping's rule, over a decade ago now.
I think about Barbara Tuchman's "The Guns of August" and "The Proud Tower".... a core theme of those books was that the elites were removed from the direct experience of total war.... people like Hindenburg and von Hotzendorf had been junior officers at the time of the Franco-Prussian War.
Sociologically, we are in a largely similar position. America and China and Russia, at most, have memories of wars of choice, colonial and imperial wars such as Afghanistan, the Sino-Vietnamese War, etc. We don't have leadership that remembers total mobilization, existential war. We have largely lost the direct lived memories of the hemoclysm of the 20th century.
And therein, lays the danger. The Cold War held, I would argue, because both the Soviet and Chinese and American elites were sufficiently sobered by the memories of comrades fallen in the war. But now is the time of ambitious and reckless politicians who do not truly grasp the scale and totality of global war. There is talk of hybrid war and assymetrical war, of shadow war and drone war- all of these bloodless ellisions that diminish the charnel horror of the trenches.
It is comparable to the mentalities of men like Lutzendorf and von Schlieffen, who believed that the advances in artillery, mobilization, and other innovations in military science would offset the conventional problems of campaigns, that there could be lightning wars, decisive battles that would settle conflicts in a season rather than in a decade. Their calculations were wrong, and those miscalculations overturned the monarchical empires of Europe, for better and for worse.
I very much fear that the generals are sleep-walking, once again, and that the greater core of generations shall march alongside, in reckless obedience.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 2:10 PM on August 4 [18 favorites]
I think about Barbara Tuchman's "The Guns of August" and "The Proud Tower".... a core theme of those books was that the elites were removed from the direct experience of total war.... people like Hindenburg and von Hotzendorf had been junior officers at the time of the Franco-Prussian War.
Sociologically, we are in a largely similar position. America and China and Russia, at most, have memories of wars of choice, colonial and imperial wars such as Afghanistan, the Sino-Vietnamese War, etc. We don't have leadership that remembers total mobilization, existential war. We have largely lost the direct lived memories of the hemoclysm of the 20th century.
And therein, lays the danger. The Cold War held, I would argue, because both the Soviet and Chinese and American elites were sufficiently sobered by the memories of comrades fallen in the war. But now is the time of ambitious and reckless politicians who do not truly grasp the scale and totality of global war. There is talk of hybrid war and assymetrical war, of shadow war and drone war- all of these bloodless ellisions that diminish the charnel horror of the trenches.
It is comparable to the mentalities of men like Lutzendorf and von Schlieffen, who believed that the advances in artillery, mobilization, and other innovations in military science would offset the conventional problems of campaigns, that there could be lightning wars, decisive battles that would settle conflicts in a season rather than in a decade. Their calculations were wrong, and those miscalculations overturned the monarchical empires of Europe, for better and for worse.
I very much fear that the generals are sleep-walking, once again, and that the greater core of generations shall march alongside, in reckless obedience.
posted by LeRoienJaune at 2:10 PM on August 4 [18 favorites]
I've taken up archery so I can get a jump on WW4
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:18 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
posted by DeepSeaHaggis at 2:18 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
Suppose China is engineering this situation not to conquer Taiwan but to take a big bite out of Russia.
They back Russia just enough to keep them pushing in Ukraine, while also saber rattling at Taiwan to prevent the USA from committing enough resources to Ukraine to actually end the war there. After a few years, Russia is hollowed out, maybe starts to suffer from civil unrest or breakdown of government functions, and has made itself an international pariah. China launches a major invasion northward to annex Siberia and there are zero international objections, in fact everyone is so relieved that they are not attacking Taiwan, and so fed up with Russia, that the response is relief or even gratitude.
posted by rustcrumb at 2:55 PM on August 4 [3 favorites]
They back Russia just enough to keep them pushing in Ukraine, while also saber rattling at Taiwan to prevent the USA from committing enough resources to Ukraine to actually end the war there. After a few years, Russia is hollowed out, maybe starts to suffer from civil unrest or breakdown of government functions, and has made itself an international pariah. China launches a major invasion northward to annex Siberia and there are zero international objections, in fact everyone is so relieved that they are not attacking Taiwan, and so fed up with Russia, that the response is relief or even gratitude.
posted by rustcrumb at 2:55 PM on August 4 [3 favorites]
+1 for the title reference.
Billy Bragg update: "War! What is it good for? It's good for business."
posted by kirkaracha at 3:01 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
Billy Bragg update: "War! What is it good for? It's good for business."
posted by kirkaracha at 3:01 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
Hell, the price of an F-150 would double overnight.
Please! Don't tempt me with a good time.
The other ramifications of a chip shortage would be terrible, yes. But it would be great to put a dent in the ever-expanding array of massive trucks available at prices that consumers don't mind financing.
posted by knotty knots at 3:01 PM on August 4 [6 favorites]
Please! Don't tempt me with a good time.
The other ramifications of a chip shortage would be terrible, yes. But it would be great to put a dent in the ever-expanding array of massive trucks available at prices that consumers don't mind financing.
posted by knotty knots at 3:01 PM on August 4 [6 favorites]
Rustcrumb, that doesn't sound so much like an engineered strategy as an apple that has fallen into the Chinese leadership's lap, should they choose to take it. Never interrupt an enemy while they are making a mistake!
posted by SnowRottie at 3:02 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
posted by SnowRottie at 3:02 PM on August 4 [4 favorites]
TSMC has all their fab facilities rigged to blow
I don't think it even has to be that dramatic. Maybe the protocol is that someone goes into the clean room with a bag of King Arthur flour and gives it a light tap.
posted by credulous at 3:33 PM on August 4 [12 favorites]
I don't think it even has to be that dramatic. Maybe the protocol is that someone goes into the clean room with a bag of King Arthur flour and gives it a light tap.
posted by credulous at 3:33 PM on August 4 [12 favorites]
Without chips, perhaps people would go back outside, make friends and figure out how to repair existing devices instead of buying a new phone for no reason every couple of years.
Sorry, the world war stuff is depressing, so I’m derailing.
In general I would like to see the US ban weapon and gun exports and require Congress to pass a bill every time we want to send 10 tanks to some random country. The justification has always been that we have to pump out military shit because the other sides do. We should just … stop for the most part, close all our bases in the Middle East, negotiate with Iran (the real power) instead of fucking Israel, and then triple down on our own Belt and Road sort of deal except do everything at cost. Right now we are doing as a nation what we mock gun nuts for doing.
The US is basically Preppers: The Country.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:36 PM on August 4 [6 favorites]
Sorry, the world war stuff is depressing, so I’m derailing.
In general I would like to see the US ban weapon and gun exports and require Congress to pass a bill every time we want to send 10 tanks to some random country. The justification has always been that we have to pump out military shit because the other sides do. We should just … stop for the most part, close all our bases in the Middle East, negotiate with Iran (the real power) instead of fucking Israel, and then triple down on our own Belt and Road sort of deal except do everything at cost. Right now we are doing as a nation what we mock gun nuts for doing.
The US is basically Preppers: The Country.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:36 PM on August 4 [6 favorites]
I don't think China could keep TSMC's fabs running even if they were handed the keys to all the facilities.
posted by ryanrs at 3:46 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 3:46 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
I mean, if you can't do it at home, with one party rule and a twenty trillion dollar economy, what makes you think you can do it on an occupied island?
posted by ryanrs at 3:53 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 3:53 PM on August 4 [5 favorites]
reminder that in addition to chip manufacturers there are also 23 million human beings who live in Taiwan
posted by cultanthropologist at 4:03 PM on August 4 [18 favorites]
posted by cultanthropologist at 4:03 PM on August 4 [18 favorites]
This idea has been speculated/fantasized about for many years, and openly suggested by American military press since at least 2021.Ok, but you realize there's a pretty big difference between "TSMC is going to blow themselves up" and "We will blow TSMC up" right? One of them sets them up as a sacrificial lamb that's happy to be led to the slaughter on the altar of American interests. If the US blows up TSMC in the event of a war, it's not clear to me they would be able to avoid the blame. I'll also add that regardless of TSMC's importance in the global economy, it is a marginal factor at best in Chinese considerations and anybody who suggests it's the reason they want to take over Taiwan should be ignored as not knowing what the fuck they're talking about.
In the past year or so, both TSMC and ASML have confirmed that TSMC will cease to produce ships if Taiwan is invaded. I somewhat doubt that translates to blowing up TSMC facilities, since ASML can remotely disable the EUV machines essential for chipmaking. Regardless, the main point of the top poster stands: worldwide chip shortage is all but guaranteed if China invades Taiwan.
I have a real problem with popular China discourse, which kind of just assumes they're greedily chomping at the bit for more land (where? it doesn't matter, anywhere!), just waiting for the right opportunity, and is on a downward trajectory because of demographics (never mind this contradicts the first assumption - why do you need more land if you can't populate it?). The end result is this cartoon villain caricature where any number of assumptions or intents can be projected upon them, regardless of any relation to reality, which in turn can be used to justify any policy being advocated.
posted by ndr at 4:38 PM on August 4 [3 favorites]
I used to work in chip design software, and credulous (above) is correct.
Shit, somebody opening the wrong door can fuck things up for weeks. Weeks! Nevermind what happens if you’re not maintaining your solvent lines because people are worried about getting shot or blown up (metal-fluorine fires are extremely not fun).
Quit worrying about TSMC; if anything happens they’re fucked regardless. That’s just a foregone conclusion — it’s all the other horrible shit you need to be worrying about.
posted by aramaic at 4:57 PM on August 4 [10 favorites]
Shit, somebody opening the wrong door can fuck things up for weeks. Weeks! Nevermind what happens if you’re not maintaining your solvent lines because people are worried about getting shot or blown up (metal-fluorine fires are extremely not fun).
Quit worrying about TSMC; if anything happens they’re fucked regardless. That’s just a foregone conclusion — it’s all the other horrible shit you need to be worrying about.
posted by aramaic at 4:57 PM on August 4 [10 favorites]
The frenemy of my frenemy is my frenemy
Maybe the real capitalism was the frenemies we betrayed along the way.
posted by CynicalKnight at 4:59 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
Maybe the real capitalism was the frenemies we betrayed along the way.
posted by CynicalKnight at 4:59 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
The Cold War held, I would argue, because both the Soviet and Chinese and American elites were sufficiently sobered by the memories of comrades fallen in the war. But now is the time of ambitious and reckless politicians who do not truly grasp the scale and totality of global war. There is talk of hybrid war and assymetrical war, of shadow war and drone war- all of these bloodless ellisions that diminish the charnel horror of the trenches.
Aside from drone war, all of those were happening pretty much continuously throughout the Cold War period. Planned and carried out, by and large, by politicians and generals who had been through World War II (and in some cases through World War I), as well as (in the case of the Soviet and Chinese leaders) catastrophic civil wars. They "held back", insofar as they did, because nuclear weapons were on the table. As they still very much are. What the article seems to be portraying, in fact, looks a lot like a new Cold War, which two blocs supporting proxies in various regional or civil conflicts, rather than another World War I, in which the parties go directly at each other in a war that would inevitably involves nuclear arsenals.
Which is what had me scratching my head because outside of that nuclear scenario, the "stakes" are not at all absolute, as the article claims. Defeat (more likely, at this point, a stalemate played domestically as a limited victory) in Ukraine is not going to result in Russia's collapse or destruction. At this point is seems deeply unlikely that any conceivable Russian victory will result in the destruction of Ukraine. Israel is not being "ruthless" because its existence is at stake, it has the backing of the EU and the United States, which between them could ensure its survival against the united might of the greater Middle East, if that's what it faced (it doesn't, of course). It's being ruthless because of a mixture of genuine fear and anger on the part of sections of the population and political expediency at the top. There is no reasonable conflict scenario short of an all-out nuclear exchange that leads to the destruction of China. The only participants who have genuine concerns about their future existence would be the Palestinian groups and maybe, if Trump wins the election and goes completely nuts, Iran.
I have a real problem with popular China discourse, which kind of just assumes they're greedily chomping at the bit for more land
The main explanation for expecting China to take a shot at Taiwan, as far as I've been able to tell, is the fact that they consider it to be part of their country, not because they need the land. I agree fully that the latter is quite a dumb reason to build a case around, if that's what the yellow peril crew are doing these days. The explanations I've heard for why China might take a crack now is that the USA is distracted elsewhere (which flies in the face of history - when have we Americans only had room in our heart for one war?), or because (and this argument is outdated at this point) a swift victory by Putin in Ukraine would show that the West doesn't have the willpower to stop such attacks.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:15 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
Aside from drone war, all of those were happening pretty much continuously throughout the Cold War period. Planned and carried out, by and large, by politicians and generals who had been through World War II (and in some cases through World War I), as well as (in the case of the Soviet and Chinese leaders) catastrophic civil wars. They "held back", insofar as they did, because nuclear weapons were on the table. As they still very much are. What the article seems to be portraying, in fact, looks a lot like a new Cold War, which two blocs supporting proxies in various regional or civil conflicts, rather than another World War I, in which the parties go directly at each other in a war that would inevitably involves nuclear arsenals.
Which is what had me scratching my head because outside of that nuclear scenario, the "stakes" are not at all absolute, as the article claims. Defeat (more likely, at this point, a stalemate played domestically as a limited victory) in Ukraine is not going to result in Russia's collapse or destruction. At this point is seems deeply unlikely that any conceivable Russian victory will result in the destruction of Ukraine. Israel is not being "ruthless" because its existence is at stake, it has the backing of the EU and the United States, which between them could ensure its survival against the united might of the greater Middle East, if that's what it faced (it doesn't, of course). It's being ruthless because of a mixture of genuine fear and anger on the part of sections of the population and political expediency at the top. There is no reasonable conflict scenario short of an all-out nuclear exchange that leads to the destruction of China. The only participants who have genuine concerns about their future existence would be the Palestinian groups and maybe, if Trump wins the election and goes completely nuts, Iran.
I have a real problem with popular China discourse, which kind of just assumes they're greedily chomping at the bit for more land
The main explanation for expecting China to take a shot at Taiwan, as far as I've been able to tell, is the fact that they consider it to be part of their country, not because they need the land. I agree fully that the latter is quite a dumb reason to build a case around, if that's what the yellow peril crew are doing these days. The explanations I've heard for why China might take a crack now is that the USA is distracted elsewhere (which flies in the face of history - when have we Americans only had room in our heart for one war?), or because (and this argument is outdated at this point) a swift victory by Putin in Ukraine would show that the West doesn't have the willpower to stop such attacks.
posted by AdamCSnider at 5:15 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
I don't think it even has to be that dramatic. Maybe the protocol is that someone goes into the clean room with a bag of King Arthur flour and gives it a light tap.
I physically cringed at this, oh god this would be so effective.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:41 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
I physically cringed at this, oh god this would be so effective.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:41 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
The main explanation for expecting China to take a shot at Taiwan, as far as I've been able to tell, is the fact that they consider it to be part of their country, not because they need the land.
The Chinese Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong, took control of almost all of China from the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party), led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the Chinese Civil War in December 1949. The Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan and founded military dictatorship.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:42 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
The Chinese Communist Party, led by Mao Zedong, took control of almost all of China from the Kuomintang (Nationalist Party), led by Chiang Kai-shek, in the Chinese Civil War in December 1949. The Kuomintang retreated to Taiwan and founded military dictatorship.
posted by kirkaracha at 5:42 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
I will caveat that I think, if Trump wins he will cut all funding and support for Ukraine. And I honestly don't know what Ukraine is supposed to do then.... That's probably a full game changer. How long do you fight a rear guard effort if Russia smells full victory and can keep pressing, unrestrained by American weapons? How much can the rest of NATO realistically supply?
I'd absolutely hate to be in Ukrainian shoes then.... Absolutely fuck Imperialist Russia and their illegal invasion..... But I'm not sure if there's much options besides a negotiated surrender (Knowing Russia will backslide as soon as possible...) or a long grinding retreat as Russia concentrates artillery and bodies wherever they can.
posted by Jacen at 7:37 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
I'd absolutely hate to be in Ukrainian shoes then.... Absolutely fuck Imperialist Russia and their illegal invasion..... But I'm not sure if there's much options besides a negotiated surrender (Knowing Russia will backslide as soon as possible...) or a long grinding retreat as Russia concentrates artillery and bodies wherever they can.
posted by Jacen at 7:37 PM on August 4 [2 favorites]
I can hardly begin to describe how vapid this article is. Never mind the simplistic analysis: it gets basic facts wrong (e.g. the G-7 did not "pledge their unwavering defense of Israel").
posted by senor biggles at 8:03 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
posted by senor biggles at 8:03 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
I don't think it even has to be that dramatic. Maybe the protocol is that someone goes into the clean room with a bag of King Arthur flour and gives it a light tap.
This basically happened at Intel. A HVAC system acted up, but some manager decided to ship the contaminated chips anyway. It's amazing the havoc a few particles of dust can cause.
posted by lock robster at 8:37 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
This basically happened at Intel. A HVAC system acted up, but some manager decided to ship the contaminated chips anyway. It's amazing the havoc a few particles of dust can cause.
posted by lock robster at 8:37 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
cultanthropologist: reminder that in addition to chip manufacturers there are also 23 million human beings who live in Taiwan
Some of whom are also named Chip.
posted by dr_dank at 8:47 PM on August 4
Some of whom are also named Chip.
posted by dr_dank at 8:47 PM on August 4
Asianometry: The Extreme Engineering of ASML’s EUV Light Source
17 minute video essay on EUV lithography engineering.
posted by ryanrs at 9:44 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
17 minute video essay on EUV lithography engineering.
posted by ryanrs at 9:44 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
I don't think it even has to be that dramatic. Maybe the protocol is that someone goes into the clean room with a bag of King Arthur flour and gives it a light tap.
“OK, guys, it’s war! Carry out Operation Excalibur!”
posted by azpenguin at 10:27 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
“OK, guys, it’s war! Carry out Operation Excalibur!”
posted by azpenguin at 10:27 PM on August 4 [1 favorite]
Re: I've assumed that in private, China's leadership has been quietly furious at Putin for the invasion of Ukraine, after China poured so much into Belt and Road infrastructure in the years before
posted by UN at 12:41 AM on August 5 [1 favorite]
Among the many significant geopolitical consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine has been the reinvigoration of the Middle Corridor, both as a regional economic zone comprising Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Turkey but also as an increasingly attractive alternative route between Europe and China. Russia’s war has disrupted overland connectivity via the New Eurasian Land Bridge, also known as Northern Corridor, which passes through – now heavily sanctioned – Russian and Belarusian territory. While the Middle Corridor will not be able to fully replace the Northern Corridor, regional integration along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is likely to increase its potential at the expense of Russia in the long-term. Ankara’s close cultural ties with the Central Asian republics combined with the latter’s willingness to diversify their foreign relations away from Moscow and Beijing provide Turkey with greater leverage in the region. The EU and Turkey share a common interest in enhancing Eurasian connectivity for several reasons: to promote peace and prosperity in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, to enhance commercial access to Central Asia, to increase the resilience of European supply chains, and to diversify European energy supplies. Strengthening Eurasian connectivity would also work to balance Russian, Chinese, and Iranian influence in Central Asia.Russia’s War on Ukraine and the Rise of the Middle Corridor as a Third Vector of Eurasian Connectivity German Institute for International and Security Affairs Berlin
It is increasingly difficult to ship cargo between Europe and China via Russian and Belarusian territory due to recent sanctions. According to the new World Bank report, the Impact of the War in Ukraine on Global Trade and Investment (2022), logistics disruptions have affected almost all trade flows between Russia and Europe, causing significant delays and inflating already high global freight prices. China-EU shipments along the Northern Corridor, which connects China to Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus, have decreased by 40 per cent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This situation has increased the appeal of Turkey’s Trans-Caspian, Middle Corridor initiative which bypasses both Russia and Iran (see Map 1, p. 2).
posted by UN at 12:41 AM on August 5 [1 favorite]
The post cold-war liberal order was a lie all along, just as this article is a lie.
“The massive swarm of drones and missiles launched directly from Iran against Israel” was a retaliation against the Israeli airbase from which the Israelis had intentionally bombed a literal Iranian embassy.
Israel embodies the lie of the Western enlightenment, the international human rights regime, the liberal order, maybe democracy itself.
The slaughter inside the giant concentration camp of Gaza, and the fact that you are being told to pay for it, is the western liberal order. Don’t look away.
posted by jackbrown at 12:52 AM on August 5 [1 favorite]
“The massive swarm of drones and missiles launched directly from Iran against Israel” was a retaliation against the Israeli airbase from which the Israelis had intentionally bombed a literal Iranian embassy.
Israel embodies the lie of the Western enlightenment, the international human rights regime, the liberal order, maybe democracy itself.
The slaughter inside the giant concentration camp of Gaza, and the fact that you are being told to pay for it, is the western liberal order. Don’t look away.
posted by jackbrown at 12:52 AM on August 5 [1 favorite]
> which flies in the face of history - when have we Americans only had room in our heart for one war?
moreover, the entire reason the u.s. spends so much on having a military so vastly larger than anyone else’s is the doctrine that it should be able to fight in two full scale wars simultaneously. which is of course bonkers, but the theory is that they want to make sure that no one thinks they can start a war against the u.s. in order to distract them from their other global interests.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 2:44 AM on August 5
moreover, the entire reason the u.s. spends so much on having a military so vastly larger than anyone else’s is the doctrine that it should be able to fight in two full scale wars simultaneously. which is of course bonkers, but the theory is that they want to make sure that no one thinks they can start a war against the u.s. in order to distract them from their other global interests.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 2:44 AM on August 5
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posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:21 AM on August 4 [16 favorites]