In Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine invades you
August 12, 2024 11:30 AM Subscribe
Day 900 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine: President Zelenskyy confirms Ukrainian incursion on Russian territory. Over the last week, a series of audacious raids has caught the Russian military flatfooted, caputring over 1000 square kilometers, occupying 28 settlements, and forcing the evacuation of over 100,000 Russian citizens from Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. As the operation continues to expand in scope, Ukrainian leadership aims to use the surprise gains as a potent bargaining chip for changing the trajectory of the war, forcing a peace settlement -- and potentially securing the return of occupied lands in the east.
Wikipedia: August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion (title subject to change)
NYT: Russia, Facing Ukrainian Incursion, Keeps Up Pressure in Eastern Ukraine
The Guardian: Zelenskiy accuses Russian forces of lighting fire at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Forbes: Ukraine Seizes Russian Gas Facility, Boosting Morale, Bargaining Power
TVPWorld: It could take a year to take push Ukraine from Kursk, pro-Kremlin analyst admits
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Ukraine Conflict Updates
Wikipedia: August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion (title subject to change)
NYT: Russia, Facing Ukrainian Incursion, Keeps Up Pressure in Eastern Ukraine
The Guardian: Zelenskiy accuses Russian forces of lighting fire at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Forbes: Ukraine Seizes Russian Gas Facility, Boosting Morale, Bargaining Power
TVPWorld: It could take a year to take push Ukraine from Kursk, pro-Kremlin analyst admits
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Ukraine Conflict Updates
Stick it to 'em, Ukraine!
posted by grubi at 11:51 AM on August 12 [11 favorites]
posted by grubi at 11:51 AM on August 12 [11 favorites]
I know this is a deadly serious situation, but that headline made me laugh, Rhaomi.
posted by Laura Palmer's Cold Dead Kiss at 11:54 AM on August 12 [52 favorites]
posted by Laura Palmer's Cold Dead Kiss at 11:54 AM on August 12 [52 favorites]
I suppose a key thing here is that once Ukraine broke through the first two lines of defense, they were able to engage in "maneuver warfare" i.e. they aren't assaulting heavily mined earth works. This is in stark contrast with the rest of the front, which is just purely attritional warfare.
Attritional warfare plays to Russia's strengths, namely having 3x as many people and a functioning electrical grid and industrial base. Maneuver warfare plays to Ukraine's strengths: better tech and better soldiers.
posted by constraint at 11:56 AM on August 12 [23 favorites]
Attritional warfare plays to Russia's strengths, namely having 3x as many people and a functioning electrical grid and industrial base. Maneuver warfare plays to Ukraine's strengths: better tech and better soldiers.
posted by constraint at 11:56 AM on August 12 [23 favorites]
constraint: "I suppose a key thing here is that once Ukraine broke through the first two lines of defense, they were able to engage in "maneuver warfare" i.e. they aren't assaulting heavily mined earth works."
Weirdly, this is the same mistake my kid makes every time we play Risk. All the troops up front, almost none in the territories behind that.
posted by caution live frogs at 11:59 AM on August 12 [11 favorites]
Weirdly, this is the same mistake my kid makes every time we play Risk. All the troops up front, almost none in the territories behind that.
posted by caution live frogs at 11:59 AM on August 12 [11 favorites]
I've seen it said around a couple places online that with Ukraine making an offensive into Russia, Russia has spent the last couple years going from the second strongest army in the world, to the second strongest army in Ukraine, and now the second strongest army in Russia.
posted by tclark at 12:10 PM on August 12 [106 favorites]
posted by tclark at 12:10 PM on August 12 [106 favorites]
First - *perfect* headline.
Second, on Daily Kos, there's a lot of stories discussing the war, and one of them the other day by RO37 put forward this speculation that part of this was made possible by top-notch deception - Ukraine has been feeding misinformation behind the scenes about the state of their army, that it's near collapse. They rotated an inexperienced unit - the 115th Mechanized - in to fight VDV troops near Adiivka, with predictable results, and this was seen as a sign that Ukraine was getting desperate. Meanwhile, AFU was preparing thousands of troops to go into Kursk while Russia was fighting as if the Ukrainian military was going to crumple. Ukraine pushed into Russia in an area that did not have state-of-the-art equipment or experienced troops. Furthermore, it's days into this and AFU still has good logistics in place. This is more than a raid to be sure.
We don't know yet what the Ukrainian plan is here going forward. But this is a major problem for Russia. They've expended so many troops in the human wave assaults, and they need to send troops to Kursk, so who do they send? If they pull from other parts of the lines, then the gains they've made will likely be swiftly erased. If they don't do something soon, AFU forces are going to run wild deeper into Russia. And they absolutely have to fight back, because if you can't repel an assault within your own borders, you're done politically. There is a possibility (not a high possibility, but it's there) that this invasion could create the conditions to end the war. Whatever the case, Russia has a LOT of problems right now that they didn't have a week ago.
posted by azpenguin at 12:17 PM on August 12 [56 favorites]
Second, on Daily Kos, there's a lot of stories discussing the war, and one of them the other day by RO37 put forward this speculation that part of this was made possible by top-notch deception - Ukraine has been feeding misinformation behind the scenes about the state of their army, that it's near collapse. They rotated an inexperienced unit - the 115th Mechanized - in to fight VDV troops near Adiivka, with predictable results, and this was seen as a sign that Ukraine was getting desperate. Meanwhile, AFU was preparing thousands of troops to go into Kursk while Russia was fighting as if the Ukrainian military was going to crumple. Ukraine pushed into Russia in an area that did not have state-of-the-art equipment or experienced troops. Furthermore, it's days into this and AFU still has good logistics in place. This is more than a raid to be sure.
We don't know yet what the Ukrainian plan is here going forward. But this is a major problem for Russia. They've expended so many troops in the human wave assaults, and they need to send troops to Kursk, so who do they send? If they pull from other parts of the lines, then the gains they've made will likely be swiftly erased. If they don't do something soon, AFU forces are going to run wild deeper into Russia. And they absolutely have to fight back, because if you can't repel an assault within your own borders, you're done politically. There is a possibility (not a high possibility, but it's there) that this invasion could create the conditions to end the war. Whatever the case, Russia has a LOT of problems right now that they didn't have a week ago.
posted by azpenguin at 12:17 PM on August 12 [56 favorites]
The quietly made deal to supply the f-16s gives them a huge tool with which to smite our enemies..
posted by hortense at 12:22 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
posted by hortense at 12:22 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
Kursk is Putin's catastrophe, Zelensky says [Kyiv Independent]
posted by mazola at 12:34 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
"We see how Russia under (President Vladimir) Putin is actually moving: 24 years ago, there was the Kursk (submarine) disaster, which was the symbolic beginning of his rule. Now we can see what is the end for him. And it's Kursk, too. The catastrophe of his war," Zelensky added.Still more questions than answers at this point though.
posted by mazola at 12:34 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
The Ukrainians continue to astonish. All the analysts I follow, and my own comments here, assumed that the only game in town was attrition along the line of contact inside Ukraine. All we could do was throw more weapons and money at the Putinists invasion.
I am super happy that Ukrainians have actually imaginative and creative strategists.
It it so strange that after more than a decade of authoritarian ascendancy, we have the electoral defeat of the French fascists, the election of Starmer and the nomination of Harris, we now have the counter-invasion of Russia. I can get used to this.
posted by SnowRottie at 12:35 PM on August 12 [49 favorites]
I am super happy that Ukrainians have actually imaginative and creative strategists.
It it so strange that after more than a decade of authoritarian ascendancy, we have the electoral defeat of the French fascists, the election of Starmer and the nomination of Harris, we now have the counter-invasion of Russia. I can get used to this.
posted by SnowRottie at 12:35 PM on August 12 [49 favorites]
Very interested in months or years from now when we find out what the interim-goal of this offensive is.
posted by Slackermagee at 12:37 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
posted by Slackermagee at 12:37 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
Putin needs to get everyone back home, give Crimea back to Ukraine, and for the first time in Russian world history, sit down and try to play nice and be a decent country instead of a constant looming problem for all neighbors and the world.
posted by GoblinHoney at 12:49 PM on August 12 [24 favorites]
posted by GoblinHoney at 12:49 PM on August 12 [24 favorites]
Isn't the interim goal to destabilize Russian access to the pipeline selling their oil to Europe? I could have sworn I saw that Kursk was basically their critical connection point.
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:50 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
posted by DirtyOldTown at 12:50 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
> They rotated an inexperienced unit - the 115th Mechanized - in to fight VDV troops near Adiivka, with predictable results, and this was seen as a sign that Ukraine was getting desperate
oh man that is brilliant and also could be a plot point in a movie about the grim decisions necessary in fighting wars, like, something analogous to the decision in ww2 to let convoys get sunk in order to keep germany from suspecting that enigma was insecure
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 12:55 PM on August 12 [11 favorites]
oh man that is brilliant and also could be a plot point in a movie about the grim decisions necessary in fighting wars, like, something analogous to the decision in ww2 to let convoys get sunk in order to keep germany from suspecting that enigma was insecure
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 12:55 PM on August 12 [11 favorites]
DirtyOldTown: to my understanding that pipeline already routes directly through Ukraine, Ukraine is a part owner and receives money due to the flows through that pipeline. If they wanted to stop the pipeline they could blow it up anywhere on their own territory.
Europe needs that fuel.
posted by constraint at 12:58 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
Europe needs that fuel.
posted by constraint at 12:58 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
Also, I think Prigozhin showed Ukraine that the interior of Russia is very, very soft. Surely a Ukrainian force won't get the deference Wagner's pulled-punch coup almost-attempt did, but Russia is entirely unable to reposition their forces quickly and effectively to repel an incursion they never even considered could happen.
posted by tclark at 12:59 PM on August 12 [8 favorites]
posted by tclark at 12:59 PM on August 12 [8 favorites]
Putin needs to get everyone back home, give Crimea back to Ukraine, and for the first time in Russian world history, sit down and try to play nice and be a decent country instead of a constant looming problem for all neighbors and the world.
I don’t believe that is a thing Putin is capable of, the only path to Russia playing nice is to have a non-dictator political system, and who knows how long that will take. The thing with dictatorships is that anybody who makes it to a position in the chain of command has got a case Dictatorship Brain as the leader themselves.
posted by Jon_Evil at 1:04 PM on August 12 [11 favorites]
I don’t believe that is a thing Putin is capable of, the only path to Russia playing nice is to have a non-dictator political system, and who knows how long that will take. The thing with dictatorships is that anybody who makes it to a position in the chain of command has got a case Dictatorship Brain as the leader themselves.
posted by Jon_Evil at 1:04 PM on August 12 [11 favorites]
I'd say there's a few folks high up in the Ukrainian forces that like Azpenguin has pointed out, have some serious sang-froid. If you look at how Kherson was re-taken, they used highly motivated units with outdated equipment to engage the Russian forces outside of the city on western side of the water, pinning them in place. The Ukrainian forces then damaged the bridges in Kherson providing resupply to the Russians, and attacked with modern, mobile forces that had been held in reserve. Without supplies and manpower depleted, and no ability to surge reinforcements and replenishment, the Russians had to abandon their positions and Kherson was re-taken without being completely flattened. There's definitely a difference between ruthlessness and an indifference to casualties, and I think we're seeing that stark contrast.
posted by LegallyBread at 1:14 PM on August 12 [14 favorites]
posted by LegallyBread at 1:14 PM on August 12 [14 favorites]
Very interested in months or years from now when we find out what the interim-goal of this offensive is.
I think there are probably some, "If the opportunity arises." kind of goals but I think that, strategically, the main thing is that it's hard strike where Russia wasn't ready for it giving Ukraine the initiative and forcing Russia to react rather than dictate events.
It's nice if you can land a good hard punch to the kidneys or knock the wind out of your opponent, but sometimes the only reason to throw some body punches is to get your opponent to get their hands away from their face so you can break their nose for them.
posted by VTX at 1:26 PM on August 12 [8 favorites]
I think there are probably some, "If the opportunity arises." kind of goals but I think that, strategically, the main thing is that it's hard strike where Russia wasn't ready for it giving Ukraine the initiative and forcing Russia to react rather than dictate events.
It's nice if you can land a good hard punch to the kidneys or knock the wind out of your opponent, but sometimes the only reason to throw some body punches is to get your opponent to get their hands away from their face so you can break their nose for them.
posted by VTX at 1:26 PM on August 12 [8 favorites]
I am reminded a different Kursk disaster.
I wonder if this move was influenced by the upcoming US elections—that Ukraine needs to establish an advantage before trump has a chance to cut them off.
posted by adamrice at 1:32 PM on August 12 [10 favorites]
I wonder if this move was influenced by the upcoming US elections—that Ukraine needs to establish an advantage before trump has a chance to cut them off.
posted by adamrice at 1:32 PM on August 12 [10 favorites]
How long until the fact that Russia is eating up their military resources trying to take Ukraine that it destabilizes the defenses of their borders with other countries that have a vested interested in beating Russia back as well?
And I'm just hoping that this doesn't build into a "of course they're using nukes, what else do they have left?" sort of situation.
posted by AzraelBrown at 2:06 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
And I'm just hoping that this doesn't build into a "of course they're using nukes, what else do they have left?" sort of situation.
posted by AzraelBrown at 2:06 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
Certainly was not on my bingo card. I hate to think that this is another bargaining chip not for a potential peace treaty deal but a "What if" concerning the US Elections, but this is only "from thin air" wonder out loud mind that white dudes consult often.
posted by alex_skazat at 2:16 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
posted by alex_skazat at 2:16 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
I DO enjoy that Putin is wondering out loud why the world isn't commending Ukraine's obvious aggression into the Russian territory. Never have I ever seen such a large leopard eat someone's face.
posted by alex_skazat at 2:18 PM on August 12 [26 favorites]
posted by alex_skazat at 2:18 PM on August 12 [26 favorites]
Good - often times in war the only thing you can do to win is the thing they don't expect you to do. I know there was speculation that the troops in the Kursk area were made up of big city kids who've been kept largely out of harms way to avoid problems in Moscow.
posted by drewbage1847 at 2:22 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
posted by drewbage1847 at 2:22 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
It's interesting how much like WW1 this is turning out to be. This isn't far from the hoped-for outcome as a consequence of the first battle on the Somme with respect to Verdun, if you consider the existing Ukrainian defensive lines as their contemporary.
posted by feloniousmonk at 2:25 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
posted by feloniousmonk at 2:25 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
my understanding that pipeline already routes directly through Ukraine, Ukraine is a part owner and receives money due to the flows through that pipeline. If they wanted to stop the pipeline they could blow it up anywhere on their own territory.
Europe needs that fuel.
Indeed, the thing in Kursk isn't just the pipeline. It's the Sudzha metering station. It's gonna be hard to bill Europe accurately without it.
posted by pwnguin at 2:28 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
Europe needs that fuel.
Indeed, the thing in Kursk isn't just the pipeline. It's the Sudzha metering station. It's gonna be hard to bill Europe accurately without it.
posted by pwnguin at 2:28 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
People talking about this changing the course of the war are speculating, I think. Likewise about it being the end of Putin. I wonder how well people understand, that even with Putin gone, pretty much any plausible Russian leader is going to be in favor of the revanchist Imperial project. It has that kind of support within Russia.
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:32 PM on August 12 [9 favorites]
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 2:32 PM on August 12 [9 favorites]
People talking about this changing the course of the war are speculating, I think.
Pretty much all anyone can do right now is speculate. But at the very least, the calculus of the war has definitely changed on the Russian side.
posted by azpenguin at 2:40 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
Pretty much all anyone can do right now is speculate. But at the very least, the calculus of the war has definitely changed on the Russian side.
posted by azpenguin at 2:40 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
Evacuated homes in the Kursk region are being looted—by Russian soldiers.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 2:41 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 2:41 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
When the war started, Ukrainians worked hard to make the world aware that their identity is distinct from Russian, their culture, language, aspirations, all involving a separation from all things Russian. And I can empathize. I get it. I grew up around Arab Jews who would not take kindly to being referred to as such.
But at the same time, it was quite the contrast to the Ukraine of 2004, polarized about 50-50 with one camp that did, in fact, feel it had common ground with Russia and a destiny to be built using that common ground. Putin killed off that idea by being brutal and brutish and yet now Ukraine controls a region of Russia that was in the fuzzy zone between the Ukrainian and Russian populations. It's full of people who could quite quickly come to decide "You know what? We're Ukrainian."
I hope Ukrainians can build on this.
posted by ocschwar at 3:42 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
But at the same time, it was quite the contrast to the Ukraine of 2004, polarized about 50-50 with one camp that did, in fact, feel it had common ground with Russia and a destiny to be built using that common ground. Putin killed off that idea by being brutal and brutish and yet now Ukraine controls a region of Russia that was in the fuzzy zone between the Ukrainian and Russian populations. It's full of people who could quite quickly come to decide "You know what? We're Ukrainian."
I hope Ukrainians can build on this.
posted by ocschwar at 3:42 PM on August 12 [12 favorites]
Isn't the interim goal to destabilize Russian access to the pipeline selling their oil to Europe?
that could be one - another could be to move missles, drones and saboteurs much closer to moscow and other places where there are good targets
posted by pyramid termite at 3:46 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
that could be one - another could be to move missles, drones and saboteurs much closer to moscow and other places where there are good targets
posted by pyramid termite at 3:46 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
If Russia wants to take its territory back militarily, they’re going to have to level their own cities to the ground. That’s the only way they can capture territory in Ukraine.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 3:51 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 3:51 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
Very interested in months or years from now when we find out what the interim-goal of this offensive is.
going to bet no one saw this coming. well from the US military strategy viewpoint, special purpose attacks fits. conjecture that it's a spoiling attack in combination of a raid as to the strategic incursion value, I think it's to buy time, sow more distrust amongst the Russian people to its leaders, forced the Russians to reallocate material and Military personnel most likely conducted with a series feints as to hide the true numbers oriented in the incursion.
posted by clavdivs at 4:04 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
going to bet no one saw this coming. well from the US military strategy viewpoint, special purpose attacks fits. conjecture that it's a spoiling attack in combination of a raid as to the strategic incursion value, I think it's to buy time, sow more distrust amongst the Russian people to its leaders, forced the Russians to reallocate material and Military personnel most likely conducted with a series feints as to hide the true numbers oriented in the incursion.
posted by clavdivs at 4:04 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
380 sq mi and 15 M inside the border is not exactly small.1970santihero quite correct at the Russians aren't going to send a bunch of bombers and fighters to chew up their own territory and if they did maybe perhaps the f-16s could help counteract.
as the static lines of attrition hold, a strategy for Ukraine would be to attack Russian infrastructure of reinforcement and weapons replenishment as well as any economic targets. if I were to guess, I would think it if they eventually withdraw, the f-16s will help in that endeavor which may have been a contributing factor to this incursion.
posted by clavdivs at 4:11 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
as the static lines of attrition hold, a strategy for Ukraine would be to attack Russian infrastructure of reinforcement and weapons replenishment as well as any economic targets. if I were to guess, I would think it if they eventually withdraw, the f-16s will help in that endeavor which may have been a contributing factor to this incursion.
posted by clavdivs at 4:11 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
Since the war began I've been following Phillipps O'Brien. His weekly newsletter covers the incursion and provides some reasons why. Though as with most developing stories in the war, we won't get the full picture till later.
posted by zompist at 4:18 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
posted by zompist at 4:18 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
Did Ukraine detonate a hydrogen bomb in Vovchansk (not that kind of hydrogen bomb)?
Ukraine has shown amazing creativity in this war. Hopefully this incursion in Russia is the first of many and they aren't immediately pushed back.
posted by Mitheral at 4:24 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
Ukraine has shown amazing creativity in this war. Hopefully this incursion in Russia is the first of many and they aren't immediately pushed back.
posted by Mitheral at 4:24 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
ok, hear me out: deploy the Kadyrovites to level Kursk
posted by ryanrs at 4:26 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 4:26 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
Ukraine doesn't want to attack fortified positions, but also doesn't want the status quo to hold. Moscow has fortified their positiins within Ukraine.
If Moscow "takes a break" it looks weak. If it attacks, it takes the offensive disadvantage - it has to attack Ukraine at the location of Ukraine's choice.
Without this incursion, Moscow could always take a "break" and replenish supplies - and Ukraine would need to either attack hardended positions or accept the status quo.
What more, Moscow has to move *fast* or it risks a regional capitol being attacked - Ukraine is half way there already. And Moscow's army hasn't showns evidence of being good at fast.
And, this territory being a traditional part of the Kyiv Rus makes me wonder if they should hold a referendum...
posted by NotAYakk at 4:32 PM on August 12 [14 favorites]
If Moscow "takes a break" it looks weak. If it attacks, it takes the offensive disadvantage - it has to attack Ukraine at the location of Ukraine's choice.
Without this incursion, Moscow could always take a "break" and replenish supplies - and Ukraine would need to either attack hardended positions or accept the status quo.
What more, Moscow has to move *fast* or it risks a regional capitol being attacked - Ukraine is half way there already. And Moscow's army hasn't showns evidence of being good at fast.
And, this territory being a traditional part of the Kyiv Rus makes me wonder if they should hold a referendum...
posted by NotAYakk at 4:32 PM on August 12 [14 favorites]
Is it possible Russian nukes were as well-maintained as their tanks?
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:37 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 4:37 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
> Is it possible Russian nukes were as well-maintained as their tanks?
Sure - but they had 1000+ of them.
What shoild they do - nuke Kyiv
If they nuke Kyiv, NATO destroys every military asset in Ukraine within 24 hours and even China will treat them with distain. To start.
They'd look weak, not strong, by using a nuke.
It is clear they can end the war by leaving Ukraine tomorrow, and regain their lost territory.
posted by NotAYakk at 4:49 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
Sure - but they had 1000+ of them.
What shoild they do - nuke Kyiv
If they nuke Kyiv, NATO destroys every military asset in Ukraine within 24 hours and even China will treat them with distain. To start.
They'd look weak, not strong, by using a nuke.
It is clear they can end the war by leaving Ukraine tomorrow, and regain their lost territory.
posted by NotAYakk at 4:49 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
All the analysts I follow, and my own comments here, assumed that the only game in town was attrition along the line of contact inside Ukraine
I thought I had read, maybe months ago during the last incursions, that zelenskyy was chomping at the bit to do this, and is ever held back by the US and other allies
Which might have been one of the reasons for the pause in announcing this, as it is an escalation, but one that Russia has chosen to downplay, rather than nuke-rattle about.
posted by eustatic at 4:55 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
I thought I had read, maybe months ago during the last incursions, that zelenskyy was chomping at the bit to do this, and is ever held back by the US and other allies
Which might have been one of the reasons for the pause in announcing this, as it is an escalation, but one that Russia has chosen to downplay, rather than nuke-rattle about.
posted by eustatic at 4:55 PM on August 12 [1 favorite]
And, this territory being a traditional part of the Kyiv Rus makes me wonder if they should hold a referendum...
A tempting thought, but probably best not to legitimize Russia's wartime 'referendums.'
I agree the F-16s may have some significance, given their capabilities over the border without leaving Ukrainian airspace: the long range air-to-air AIM-120C's range is at least 20 mi (32km) and up to ~60 depending on the version; the D model is thought to be capable of at least 80mi, potentially over 100 mi. Helicopter kills have already been claimed (though no word on what shot them down yet), and their presence and ability to shoot before being detected (via datalink from AWACS) might be keeping Russian fixed-wing aviation hesitant to come close enough for direct support missions.
The relatively inexpensive JSOW glide weapon if released from high altitude can go about 70mi, among others. And it appears the Dutch F-16s that were received have advanced electronic warfare suites that should make the HARMs more deadly against ground-based air defenses (shifting the drone fight as well as the conventional air picture).
Sweden also committed to send its last hundred or so previous generation PBV-302 IFVs around May, which might have been available to participate by now. Or freed up more recent equipment engaged in the southeast. (It's been observed that its wide top hatch could make it a good drone carrier.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:57 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
A tempting thought, but probably best not to legitimize Russia's wartime 'referendums.'
I agree the F-16s may have some significance, given their capabilities over the border without leaving Ukrainian airspace: the long range air-to-air AIM-120C's range is at least 20 mi (32km) and up to ~60 depending on the version; the D model is thought to be capable of at least 80mi, potentially over 100 mi. Helicopter kills have already been claimed (though no word on what shot them down yet), and their presence and ability to shoot before being detected (via datalink from AWACS) might be keeping Russian fixed-wing aviation hesitant to come close enough for direct support missions.
The relatively inexpensive JSOW glide weapon if released from high altitude can go about 70mi, among others. And it appears the Dutch F-16s that were received have advanced electronic warfare suites that should make the HARMs more deadly against ground-based air defenses (shifting the drone fight as well as the conventional air picture).
Sweden also committed to send its last hundred or so previous generation PBV-302 IFVs around May, which might have been available to participate by now. Or freed up more recent equipment engaged in the southeast. (It's been observed that its wide top hatch could make it a good drone carrier.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 4:57 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
(Sweden had about 200 left, but not sure how many were ultimately fixed up and transferred.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:09 PM on August 12
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:09 PM on August 12
But this is a major problem for Russia.
To add more context why this is a HUGE problem - conscripts in Russia are generally prohibited from serving abroad, which is the only way it has been palatable to the population. Drafting the general population to go and die in a trench in an overseas war of adventure is generally deeply unpopular (eg Vietnam War). Currently Russia has a rotating strength of 300,000 conscripts in their army defending their own borders, which enables deployment of their "volunteer" army into Ukraine - recruiting from the oldest / poorest / prisoners / minorities / uneducated etc.
Judging from the videos coming out of Ukraine's latest incursion, most of the POWs being captured are well groomed young men. This is disaster for middle class Russians who might have tolerated the draft on assurances their young boys would be safe within Russia's borders. All the horrors of the war - would happen to someone else, not them.
In the past year we've seen almost every permutation how it is possible to be killed by a drone in Ukraine (posted by soldiers from both sides of the war). Both sides know what a hellhole the war is. There's footage of soldiers spotting a drone overhead, realizing they can't get away then just shooting themselves in the head rather than waiting to be bombed. There's one where a soldier is trapped under a burning vehicle, and desperately gestures for the enemy drone to come closer and blow him up. There's one where two soldiers are fleeing the battle, one of them gets hit by a drone, and his buddy sees he can't walk anymore and just straight up shoots him in the head without breaking stride. If you're injured in the field, that's likely your fate anyway - if there's one drone, there's probably four more in the area, and there have been way too many videos where an injured soldier is being evacuated by 6 other squad-mates and they all get taken out by a single drone.
posted by xdvesper at 5:40 PM on August 12 [20 favorites]
To add more context why this is a HUGE problem - conscripts in Russia are generally prohibited from serving abroad, which is the only way it has been palatable to the population. Drafting the general population to go and die in a trench in an overseas war of adventure is generally deeply unpopular (eg Vietnam War). Currently Russia has a rotating strength of 300,000 conscripts in their army defending their own borders, which enables deployment of their "volunteer" army into Ukraine - recruiting from the oldest / poorest / prisoners / minorities / uneducated etc.
Judging from the videos coming out of Ukraine's latest incursion, most of the POWs being captured are well groomed young men. This is disaster for middle class Russians who might have tolerated the draft on assurances their young boys would be safe within Russia's borders. All the horrors of the war - would happen to someone else, not them.
In the past year we've seen almost every permutation how it is possible to be killed by a drone in Ukraine (posted by soldiers from both sides of the war). Both sides know what a hellhole the war is. There's footage of soldiers spotting a drone overhead, realizing they can't get away then just shooting themselves in the head rather than waiting to be bombed. There's one where a soldier is trapped under a burning vehicle, and desperately gestures for the enemy drone to come closer and blow him up. There's one where two soldiers are fleeing the battle, one of them gets hit by a drone, and his buddy sees he can't walk anymore and just straight up shoots him in the head without breaking stride. If you're injured in the field, that's likely your fate anyway - if there's one drone, there's probably four more in the area, and there have been way too many videos where an injured soldier is being evacuated by 6 other squad-mates and they all get taken out by a single drone.
posted by xdvesper at 5:40 PM on August 12 [20 favorites]
Now we can see what is the end for him. And it's Kursk, too. The catastrophe of his war," Zelensky added.
"Prepare 3 envelopes ..."
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:12 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
"Prepare 3 envelopes ..."
posted by ZenMasterThis at 6:12 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
Let’s hope the next guy is better than Putin, and that this helps him show up soon.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:22 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 6:22 PM on August 12 [4 favorites]
They'd look weak, not strong, by using a nuke.
I would not be so confident. A sobering reminder to Metafilter patrons that Russia deployed nuclear and biochemical weapons on Uk soil three times, with no serious repercussions. Further, Syria deployed chemical weapons, formerly a red line of the Obama administration, with tacit and explicit Russian support and defense post-attack. The ambivalence of nations towards Ukraine's self-defense makes it a target for similar attacks by Russia.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:22 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
I would not be so confident. A sobering reminder to Metafilter patrons that Russia deployed nuclear and biochemical weapons on Uk soil three times, with no serious repercussions. Further, Syria deployed chemical weapons, formerly a red line of the Obama administration, with tacit and explicit Russian support and defense post-attack. The ambivalence of nations towards Ukraine's self-defense makes it a target for similar attacks by Russia.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:22 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
Russia deployed nuclear and biochemical weapons
I think it's worth pointing out that the Polonium-210 that they poisoned Litvinenko might be more accurately described as a chemical weapon (a poison) rather than a nuclear weapon, even though its method of action was radioactive decay, and not a big boom.
posted by tclark at 6:31 PM on August 12 [21 favorites]
I think it's worth pointing out that the Polonium-210 that they poisoned Litvinenko might be more accurately described as a chemical weapon (a poison) rather than a nuclear weapon, even though its method of action was radioactive decay, and not a big boom.
posted by tclark at 6:31 PM on August 12 [21 favorites]
Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Blitzed Russia With Electronic Warfare And Drones
First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening.
Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance.
“They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications.”
The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function.
By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.
Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.”
One the trenches [were] cleared ... Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones(‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.
posted by Kabanos at 6:32 PM on August 12 [25 favorites]
First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening.
Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance.
“They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications.”
The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function.
By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.
Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.”
One the trenches [were] cleared ... Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones(‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.
posted by Kabanos at 6:32 PM on August 12 [25 favorites]
Sounds like a drone-based blitzkrieg then.
posted by abraxasaxarba at 6:36 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
posted by abraxasaxarba at 6:36 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
Radiological weapon.
posted by porpoise at 6:46 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
posted by porpoise at 6:46 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
Same old tactics applied with the new-fangled weapons.
posted by notyou at 6:48 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
posted by notyou at 6:48 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
I saw a brief interview with Naval War College professor Sarah Paine, who said that Putin will not and cannot retreat. Politically he has no option but to continue the war at all costs, and the only way this will ever end is with him tripping and falling out a window.
posted by Orthodox Humanoid at 7:31 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
posted by Orthodox Humanoid at 7:31 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
I really, really, hope this works out and the Ukranian soldiers can get out instead of being cut off and killed.
I also really hope this gives someone in Russia the backing and certainty in Putin's weakness that they make a serious play at replacing him.
posted by sotonohito at 7:59 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
I also really hope this gives someone in Russia the backing and certainty in Putin's weakness that they make a serious play at replacing him.
posted by sotonohito at 7:59 PM on August 12 [7 favorites]
https://imgur.com/Z9BEQfA is a section of the July 12, 1943 "Lage Ost" situation map the German Army HQ drew up each day for the brass to review. This day was when the southern armored pincer of Operation Citadel (attacking north out of Belgorod) was stopped by the 5th Tank Army at Prokhorovka.
Sumy is in the center-left of this map, 100 miles to the west of the 1943 axis of attack.
10-odd years ago I downloaded the full set of 1941-43 Lage Ost maps, and it was very educational to be able to just see & study things exactly as the German Army was drawing up for themselves each day.
Related to this, around that time I came across a graduation picture of a full WW I German rifle company arrayed with their gear, and the thought struck me how just this one company had the equipment and tactical training to do whatever the hell they wanted as long as they were supplied and not confronted with a similarly powerful opposing military force.
I find this conflict rather depressing and haven't been following it all that closely; I'm just rather surprised at how fixed the front lines were these past 2+ years, given all the reconnaissance and mobility both sides have. I guess logistics is always paramount, especially in modern war.
posted by torokunai at 8:00 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
Sumy is in the center-left of this map, 100 miles to the west of the 1943 axis of attack.
10-odd years ago I downloaded the full set of 1941-43 Lage Ost maps, and it was very educational to be able to just see & study things exactly as the German Army was drawing up for themselves each day.
Related to this, around that time I came across a graduation picture of a full WW I German rifle company arrayed with their gear, and the thought struck me how just this one company had the equipment and tactical training to do whatever the hell they wanted as long as they were supplied and not confronted with a similarly powerful opposing military force.
I find this conflict rather depressing and haven't been following it all that closely; I'm just rather surprised at how fixed the front lines were these past 2+ years, given all the reconnaissance and mobility both sides have. I guess logistics is always paramount, especially in modern war.
posted by torokunai at 8:00 PM on August 12 [5 favorites]
It's part logistics and part that drones make movement near impossible with their ability to call in artillery barrages that WWI commanders wish they could have.
Modern war is all about mobility - it's your only safety from getting blown up, but now drones make it hard to keep moving because you're so exposed.
posted by drewbage1847 at 8:27 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
Modern war is all about mobility - it's your only safety from getting blown up, but now drones make it hard to keep moving because you're so exposed.
posted by drewbage1847 at 8:27 PM on August 12 [3 favorites]
1984 me would have thought this was all so cool.
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:32 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 8:32 PM on August 12 [6 favorites]
yeah I had GDW's Assault back in the day. For being a lifelong wargame aficionado I've played precious few, but that was one . . .
posted by torokunai at 8:39 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
posted by torokunai at 8:39 PM on August 12 [2 favorites]
> And I'm just hoping that this doesn't build into a "of course they're using nukes, what else do they have left?" sort of situation.
If Russia does, I'd maybe expect various Ukrainian forces and irregulars to maybe destroy big chunks of Russia's oil and gas industry.
Reading this, I'm reevaluating that speculation:
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-oil-refining-attacks?lang=en
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:23 AM on August 13 [2 favorites]
If Russia does, I'd maybe expect various Ukrainian forces and irregulars to maybe destroy big chunks of Russia's oil and gas industry.
Reading this, I'm reevaluating that speculation:
https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-oil-refining-attacks?lang=en
posted by sebastienbailard at 2:23 AM on August 13 [2 favorites]
A brilliant move by Kiev, forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from their successful meat grinder.
I think Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines, too.
posted by doctornemo at 6:39 AM on August 13 [6 favorites]
I think Ukraine has the advantage of interior lines, too.
posted by doctornemo at 6:39 AM on August 13 [6 favorites]
torokunai is right. Kursk recalls the submarine horror, but also that immense WWII battle. Remember what an enormous role the Great Patriotic War plays in Russian culture.
posted by doctornemo at 6:39 AM on August 13 [2 favorites]
posted by doctornemo at 6:39 AM on August 13 [2 favorites]
I'm just rather surprised at how fixed the front lines were these past 2+ years, given all the reconnaissance and mobility both sides have. I guess logistics is always paramount, especially in modern war.Logistics for sure are important, but aren't the reason why the frontlines have been static. Military tactics and the balance between manuever and fortification have always evolved based on the relative lethality of weapons and the ability for soldiers to counteract those weapons.
Much of warfare in the 19th century was heavily manuever based as gunpowder weapons of the time were only effective in massed volleys, and required large columns of infantry and cavalry to try and seize key geographic areas to make their artillery and muskets just a little more lethal. Then rifles, machine guns, and industrialization flooded the battlefield with accurate bullets and shells, forcing a return to trench warfare. Then you had the tank nullifying the lethality of bullets and moving the needle back to manuever warfare. Then you had the invention of anti-tank missiles, which has reached its apotheosis with precision artillery shells guided by a drone's lasers or GPS data.
This is not unlike the way naval warfare was changed once airplanes with accurate bombs and torpedoes made battleships obsolete. Now you have a country with no navy murdering one of the largest navies in the world with cruise missles and drones, and the truest projection of menace at sea is not a gunboat bristling with cannons but an invisible submarine loitering off your coast with a dozen nukes.
Which is all to say that until you have countermeasures for the drones, then this sort of static combat with infantry sneaking through cover and urban rubble will be how future wars will be fought.
posted by bl1nk at 8:31 AM on August 13 [8 favorites]
OK I read the whole thread and I don't see anybody speculating that Ukraine is basically taking hostages.
A few people came close by observing that Russia cannot recapture occupied cities by assault, because that destroys the city you're trying to save.
Maybe Ukraine is going for a quid pro quo where Russia has to evacuate Ukrainian territory in return for Ukrainian troops leaving Russia?
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:32 AM on August 13 [3 favorites]
A few people came close by observing that Russia cannot recapture occupied cities by assault, because that destroys the city you're trying to save.
Maybe Ukraine is going for a quid pro quo where Russia has to evacuate Ukrainian territory in return for Ukrainian troops leaving Russia?
posted by Aardvark Cheeselog at 8:32 AM on August 13 [3 favorites]
I think the idea that Ukraine's incursion is to use the captured territory as leverage for negotiations with Russia is quite broadly covered in this thread, but calling it hostage taking is a bit touchy. I mean, like, yes, if you want to do it as an intellectual exercise, you can call it a number of things, but there are points where it basically becomes a war crime. While I think Ukrainians may be willing to go tit-for-tat with Russia, it's also important for them to maintain the image of being "the good guys" and systemic war crimes erodes that.
Questions to consider (that I feel like we don't know yet because facts aren't really available)
posted by bl1nk at 8:48 AM on August 13 [11 favorites]
Questions to consider (that I feel like we don't know yet because facts aren't really available)
- are the residents of the captured Russian towns able to flee or choose to become refugees?
- are any Russian civilians being held in confinement for reasons besides operational security?
- are any Russian civilians being sent back into Ukrainian territory against their will?
posted by bl1nk at 8:48 AM on August 13 [11 favorites]
Yeah I don't think hostage taking is correct until there is evidence of war crime.
Ukraine is going after supply lines, key bases, depots, and finding a way to circumvent Russian defenses so they can engage in industrial scale slaughter of Russian armed forces on more favorable terrain.
All of those things are allowed and normal parts of war.
posted by constraint at 9:07 AM on August 13 [7 favorites]
Ukraine is going after supply lines, key bases, depots, and finding a way to circumvent Russian defenses so they can engage in industrial scale slaughter of Russian armed forces on more favorable terrain.
All of those things are allowed and normal parts of war.
posted by constraint at 9:07 AM on August 13 [7 favorites]
Dara Massicot has an interesting twitter thread on Russia’s response to the invasion. I’ll copy it out, to save the you trouble of going on X:
Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch:posted by Kattullus at 9:34 AM on August 13 [11 favorites]
Russia has declared its defense operation to be a "counter-terrorist operation" (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2
Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3
Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4
The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). / 5
The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it's been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6
..that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May - Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It's MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7
Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8
Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9
I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today's situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10
I haven't seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11
It's Lapin's AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12
Rosgvardia's tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13
FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14
Russia's MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15
This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16
AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17
This war has left Russia's borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end
I found this Mastodon post to be informative on the financial and logistical dilemmas the Russians now have. A lot of money is coming in from those gas pipelines... https://infosec.exchange/@littlealex/112925288375029203
posted by anthill at 10:38 AM on August 13 [17 favorites]
posted by anthill at 10:38 AM on August 13 [17 favorites]
Fingers x-ed for Ukraine - hopefully this relieves pressure on the front-line and gives Russia pause to ponder, both the local populace and upper echelons of power. I'm guessing the Russian media can spin this into a great patriotic war and mass forces to repel Ukraine if they wanted too - however many seem to be saying the locals wouldn't really stand for a full mobilisation (I'm not familiar with Russian politics to know where the red-lines are for Russian People vs Putin tho).
My fears are two-fold -
* Really hope the advance doesn't over-extend, has a back-out plan and the troops don't get kettled or cut-off
* Whats the plan for winter?
posted by phigmov at 11:47 AM on August 13 [3 favorites]
My fears are two-fold -
* Really hope the advance doesn't over-extend, has a back-out plan and the troops don't get kettled or cut-off
* Whats the plan for winter?
posted by phigmov at 11:47 AM on August 13 [3 favorites]
The only way to change Russian politics: show up in person with an army. I wish them the best. From my comfortable position: I wish all of NATO was in Ukraine so that they wouldn't have to do this.
Ukraine taking hostages? What? Who? The prisoners of war they captured? Genuinely don't understand what that means. Russia invades a country, they get some pushback, and now the invaded country is the criminal? That's the most messed up thing I've heard in hours.
posted by UN at 12:33 PM on August 13 [11 favorites]
Ukraine taking hostages? What? Who? The prisoners of war they captured? Genuinely don't understand what that means. Russia invades a country, they get some pushback, and now the invaded country is the criminal? That's the most messed up thing I've heard in hours.
posted by UN at 12:33 PM on August 13 [11 favorites]
* Really hope the advance doesn't over-extend, has a back-out plan and the troops don't get kettled or cut-off
I'm seeing socials posts of Ukrainian equipment being towed back home for repairs and refurb. This wouldn't be happening if there weren't functional land routes back home. So some small cause for optimism.
posted by LegallyBread at 12:35 PM on August 13 [8 favorites]
I'm seeing socials posts of Ukrainian equipment being towed back home for repairs and refurb. This wouldn't be happening if there weren't functional land routes back home. So some small cause for optimism.
posted by LegallyBread at 12:35 PM on August 13 [8 favorites]
Я на вашій базі, вбиваю ваших хлопців.
posted by kirkaracha at 3:40 PM on August 13 [7 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 3:40 PM on August 13 [7 favorites]
That Mastodon post quoted by anthill upthread is well worth reading. Fascinating stuff. The quote Sun Tau quote, "The line between disorder and order lies in logistics," really rings true too, especially when you consider how badly Russia's invasion started.
posted by vac2003 at 4:43 PM on August 13 [3 favorites]
posted by vac2003 at 4:43 PM on August 13 [3 favorites]
The drone intelligence is so "new warfare". Let alone those drones dropping bombs and missiles on you. Really an entirely new style of warfare.
posted by Windopaene at 6:28 PM on August 13 [1 favorite]
posted by Windopaene at 6:28 PM on August 13 [1 favorite]
Ukraine has conducted its “biggest attack” on Russian airfields since the war began, with drones targeting four Russian airfields overnight, a source at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN on Wednesday.
The source also said airfields in Russian cities of Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka and Borisoglebsk were targeted.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 8:19 AM on August 14
The source also said airfields in Russian cities of Voronezh, Kursk, Savasleyka and Borisoglebsk were targeted.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 8:19 AM on August 14
The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk.
If that's true, I don't doubt (and sincerely hope!) Ukraine planned for that move and has another surprise in store.
Sun Tsu would surely have said that among the worst things one can do in warfare is to be predictable.
posted by Gelatin at 10:40 AM on August 14 [1 favorite]
If that's true, I don't doubt (and sincerely hope!) Ukraine planned for that move and has another surprise in store.
Sun Tsu would surely have said that among the worst things one can do in warfare is to be predictable.
posted by Gelatin at 10:40 AM on August 14 [1 favorite]
Next month in Kaliningrad!
posted by Captaintripps at 11:12 AM on August 14 [1 favorite]
posted by Captaintripps at 11:12 AM on August 14 [1 favorite]
"The difficulty of tactical maneuvering consists in turning the devious into the direct, and misfortune into gain."
"The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast....The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast."
posted by clavdivs at 11:33 AM on August 14
"The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast....The Russian military command may be pulling select elements of Russian irregular units from Donetsk Oblast to address the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk Oblast."
posted by clavdivs at 11:33 AM on August 14
Next month in Kaliningrad!
s/Kaliningrad/Królewiec/g
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 12:10 PM on August 14 [3 favorites]
s/Kaliningrad/Królewiec/g
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 12:10 PM on August 14 [3 favorites]
If that's true, I don't doubt (and sincerely hope!) Ukraine planned for that move and has another surprise in store.
What's great and I'm sure has been part of the strategy, is that it's blatantly obvious that this move is to take pressure off the front within Ukraine.
So they obviously can'tchoose cup in front of me take the bait and sent reinforcements to take back the lost ground.
But then Ukraine's forces can go galavanting hurting Putin politically and the farther they push into Russia the more of a strategic threat it becomes.
So they obviously can'tchoose the cup in front of you can't let Ukraine run around unchallenged.
Of course Ukraine knows this too so they almost certainly are ready to launch a counter attack on the other front once Russian reinforcements have engages in the north.
Ukraine legit spent a lot of time getting ready for this to build a tolerance and have poisoned both cups. Putin even makes a pretty decent stand-in for Vizzini!
They have zero good choices and Ukraine has almost nothing but good outcomes. I would bet on them responding to the attack on Russia and hoping things work out in the south. If they try to send just enough resources to push them out and end up short or Ukraine is able to quickly shift to compensate that still takes a lot of troops out of Ukraine.
posted by VTX at 12:49 PM on August 14 [8 favorites]
What's great and I'm sure has been part of the strategy, is that it's blatantly obvious that this move is to take pressure off the front within Ukraine.
So they obviously can't
But then Ukraine's forces can go galavanting hurting Putin politically and the farther they push into Russia the more of a strategic threat it becomes.
So they obviously can't
Of course Ukraine knows this too so they almost certainly are ready to launch a counter attack on the other front once Russian reinforcements have engages in the north.
Ukraine legit spent a lot of time getting ready for this to build a tolerance and have poisoned both cups. Putin even makes a pretty decent stand-in for Vizzini!
They have zero good choices and Ukraine has almost nothing but good outcomes. I would bet on them responding to the attack on Russia and hoping things work out in the south. If they try to send just enough resources to push them out and end up short or Ukraine is able to quickly shift to compensate that still takes a lot of troops out of Ukraine.
posted by VTX at 12:49 PM on August 14 [8 favorites]
On that topic, from 1970s Antihero's link to the CNN liveblog, we see "Lithuanian defense minister claims Russia is moving its troops from Kaliningrad to Kursk."
posted by adamrice at 12:50 PM on August 14
posted by adamrice at 12:50 PM on August 14
Is Ukraine "allowed" to fire HIMARS into Russian territory yet? There has to be a whole lot of tasty new targets in range.
posted by whuppy at 5:36 PM on August 14
posted by whuppy at 5:36 PM on August 14
Is Ukraine "allowed" to fire HIMARS into Russian territory yet?
Yup with as far as we know some vague restrictions about not TOO much into Russian territory
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:55 PM on August 14 [1 favorite]
Yup with as far as we know some vague restrictions about not TOO much into Russian territory
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 5:55 PM on August 14 [1 favorite]
HIMARS for military targets. If Ukraine has non-us weapons to strike economic infrastructure it might likely do so.
PUTIN IS VULNERABLE: WESTERN POLICY MASKS RUSSIAN WEAKNESS
Aug 14, 2024 - ISW Press
posted by clavdivs at 6:20 PM on August 14 [6 favorites]
PUTIN IS VULNERABLE: WESTERN POLICY MASKS RUSSIAN WEAKNESS
Aug 14, 2024 - ISW Press
posted by clavdivs at 6:20 PM on August 14 [6 favorites]
A German Tank General discussing a military attack on Kursk, in 2024?
Surreal, yes. But over 23 minutes General Dr. Freuding provides a pretty decent summary and analysis of Ukraine's current incursion into russia.
Youtube link (German, but English captioning available)
Elon's hellsite link (English dubbed version)
posted by Kabanos at 7:44 PM on August 15 [2 favorites]
Surreal, yes. But over 23 minutes General Dr. Freuding provides a pretty decent summary and analysis of Ukraine's current incursion into russia.
Youtube link (German, but English captioning available)
Elon's hellsite link (English dubbed version)
posted by Kabanos at 7:44 PM on August 15 [2 favorites]
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