From “classical” hybrid warfare to more “kinetic” approaches

September 29, 2024 1:05 PM

Given these strategic roles, any threat to Klaipėda, whether from mismanagement of a dangerous cargo or a deliberate act, has far-reaching implications for regional security and energy stability. The Ruby episode underscores how hybrid threats can potentially evolve to include kinetic elements. The complexity of attribution, combined with Klaipėda’s strategic significance, makes it a potential flashpoint for regional security. from Floating Megabomb Heaves to Near the English Coast [CEPA]

Ammonium nitrate previously: The Beirut Port Explosion: Forensic Architecture

posted by chavenet (31 comments total)

Ammonium nitrate is scary stuff. It was responsible for massive explosions in Texas in 1947 and again in 2005.
posted by TedW at 1:26 PM on September 29 [2 favorites]

isn't it great that we don't use picric acid in explosives anymore.
posted by clavdivs at 1:52 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

I wonder if it'd be possible to have the ship's crew evacuated and then a careful, controlled transfer to a trusted ship bound for either the original destination or an acceptable third port?
posted by Grimp0teuthis at 1:53 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

It's not clear from the articles who the intended recipient of all this NH4NO3 is supposed to be. When it loaded up and departed Kandalaksha in August, whose address was on the bill of lading? Shouldn't that party be arranging for it to dock somewhere? Seems to me the choices are:

1) The future owner of all this boom-making material shows up and takes responsibility
2) Go back to Russia
3) Try and force yourself into a port and get boarded or sunk from a distance by that nation's navy.

Seems the Ruby is trying to force some fourth option and absolutely no one is playing ball. I wonder how the crew is provisioned for a long stalemate.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 1:55 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

It's not clear from the articles who the intended recipient of all this NH4NO3 is supposed to be. When it loaded up and departed Kandalaksha in August, whose address was on the bill of lading? Shouldn't that party be arranging for it to dock somewhere?

From this BBC article:

Its current destination is listed as Marsaxlokk, in Malta.

But Maltese authorities have told local media that the ship can only enter the country if it empties its cargo beforehand.

posted by slater at 2:20 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

That's the current destination, as its being escorted through UK waters, because the boat is owned by a Maltese firm. But it's not clear whether that was the original destination:

"But Maltese authorities have told local media that the ship can only enter the country if it empties its cargo beforehand."

Empties and gives to whom?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 2:27 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

what a great idea with the rest of the world being so stable and all
posted by lalochezia at 3:03 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

They keep the port of St Peterburg open all winter using icebreakers, right?

Lol if they have to spend the winter in Kaliningrad.
posted by ryanrs at 3:05 PM on September 29 [2 favorites]

...I hear Mr Burns coming on deck now! EVERYONE LOOK BUSY!
posted by not_on_display at 3:07 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

What a weird story.

Assuming it's above board, Who orders 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate? Who loads a ship full of 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate without some international coordination?

Assuming it's some planned para-military disruption attack, did they just put "20 kilotons explosive" on the manifest? Did they assume it'd be difficult to trace a cargo ship back to the last port it visited? Did they believe it wouldn't be viewed as an attack?

This is like that german pipeline sabotage where it's just like... even the most logical explanations are kinda shocking.
posted by midmarch snowman at 3:12 PM on September 29 [6 favorites]

Get the crew off and let the RN or RAF use it as target practice
posted by slater at 3:16 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

gCaptain thinks it's legit, not a hybrid warfare op
posted by ryanrs at 3:31 PM on September 29 [9 favorites]

According to ryanrs link above:
There are 8-9 million tons of ammonium nitrate shipped per year.
It's an important export for Russia, from which about half of the shipping originates.
This was headed to the Canary Islands but sustained hull damage when going north of Norway.
The ship is known to the people who follow such things and they're taking appropriate caution.
The captain is trying to figure out offloading at sea to smaller vessels.
The scary news reporting started with Newsweek.
posted by Emmy Noether at 4:08 PM on September 29 [12 favorites]

I wish one of the articles would explain what prevents the ship from reaching the Canary Islands and unloading there, especially if they're talking about redirecting the ship to Malta. Does the damage it sustained prevent it from unloading in the Canaries?
posted by Reverend John at 4:14 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

It's an important export for Russia, from which about half of the shipping originates.

Yeah, ammonium nitrate is one of the things you make when you have big surpluses of natural gas. It's a commodity chemical, important fertilizer, and easier to store and transport than raw gas.
posted by ryanrs at 4:28 PM on September 29 [5 favorites]

As I recall, this is how Beruit exploded, yes? Speculation then was that it was some kind of Isis shipment from Russia, but that seems like the paranoia taking over, since this cargo was neglected for months. It just seems like there should be an enemy with intent, when hundreds of people die.

Couldn't this ship be light loaded onto barges within the Mediterranean? It seems like there would be many ports that could secure such a cargo. It's just politically more expedient to send the boat back to St Petersburg, right?

But it is curious how people think that the regular products of the oil industry are akin to atomic warfare. They are not totally wrong, exactly....but then what do we call what the United States does to Texas and Louisiana? internal warfare?
posted by eustatic at 5:18 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

TX is like an enthusiastically consenting partner who gets off on degradation in that analogy.
posted by SaltySalticid at 5:24 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

well, the States of Texas and Louisiana, but the States are not the residents. Voter turnout in Louisiana is 36%, not exactly consent, more like submission.
posted by eustatic at 5:28 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

Assuming it's above board, Who orders 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate?

Industrial agriculture.
posted by mhoye at 5:33 PM on September 29 [5 favorites]

in all seriousness, Greenpeace has an LNG tanker tracker.

They are not enemy ships, but it is good to not be where these tankers are when they are full. So don't be out on the jetty in Port Aransas fishing when they are passing, as there is no way to get out of blister distance in time, on foot, in the low low chance if something were to happen.
posted by eustatic at 5:42 PM on September 29 [2 favorites]

It's weird that Greenpeace's tracker only seems to show exports, as Boston has one of the largest import terminals around - New England is a massive LNG consumer, and the terminal is right in the heart of the city and the path of the tankers goes between the Port of Boston and the end of Boston Logan Runway 4 L/R. Boom.
posted by scolbath at 6:01 PM on September 29 [2 favorites]

since this cargo was neglected for months

In the sense that six years is 72 months, sure. Most of the ammonium nitrate in the Beirut explosion was from the MV Rhosus, a damaged and abandoned freighter seized in February 2014. It originally set sail September 2013. The Beirut explosion was August 2020 - nearly seven years after loading, with six and a half years of sitting in a warehouse.
posted by zamboni at 6:20 PM on September 29 [3 favorites]

thanks for the clarity
posted by eustatic at 7:08 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

I wish one of the articles would explain what prevents the ship from reaching the Canary Islands

A spokesperson stated that the Ruby is “waiting for appropriate conditions to refuel at sea before passing through the English Channel”
posted by HearHere at 11:28 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

the terminal is right in the heart of the city and the path of the tankers goes between the Port of Boston and the end of Boston Logan Runway 4 L/R. Boom.

There was a proposal in the early 2000s to completely relocate the Everett facility to one of the Brewster Islands in the outer harbor, but that didn't go anywhere because a) those islands are part of the National Park unit and b) everyone realized pretty quick that "relocate" actually meant "double our capacity by building a new facility and not bothering to close the old one".

For what it's worth there is a deepwater terminal 13 miles from shore where ships can offload without going anywhere near the harbor. It was built in 2008 and I want to say it reduces the number of ships threading their way into the harbor, but it probably ended up being extra capacity. (If anyone knows anything, please feel free to correct me).
posted by RonButNotStupid at 5:37 AM on September 30 [4 favorites]

In my Irish language study groups on fb, this would be the occasion for a flurry of “Seamus, get the fertiliser” memes
posted by toodleydoodley at 11:27 AM on September 30 [1 favorite]

ok, what is up Biolab Atlanta

because Chlorine probably makes the biggest, most common evac RMP radii in the EPA RMPs for Louisiana

Biolab Lake Charles

but orange smoke is a no no time, i would not shelter in place, honestly, even though, what, is it Cyanuric acid that makes the orange smoke in a Chlorine plant?
posted by eustatic at 11:31 AM on September 30 [1 favorite]

Who orders 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate?

uh my finger slipped
posted by klangklangston at 12:37 PM on September 30 [3 favorites]

As gCaptain says, nothing suspicious here. We'll see if the CIA reduces Russian income from ammonia nitrate exports somehow though. lol

Séamus Get The Fertilizer playlists
posted by jeffburdges at 6:23 AM on October 1 [1 favorite]

jeffburdges, I can’t put my hands on it but back I think when the Queen died, Black Twitter and Irish Twitter collaborated to produce a video of a man Crip-walking at a gas station dubbed to the Wolfe Tones’ “Come Out You Black & Tans”
posted by toodleydoodley at 3:42 PM on October 2 [1 favorite]

This?
posted by jeffburdges at 4:20 PM on October 2