From “classical” hybrid warfare to more “kinetic” approaches

September 29, 2024 1:05 PM

Given these strategic roles, any threat to Klaipėda, whether from mismanagement of a dangerous cargo or a deliberate act, has far-reaching implications for regional security and energy stability. The Ruby episode underscores how hybrid threats can potentially evolve to include kinetic elements. The complexity of attribution, combined with Klaipėda’s strategic significance, makes it a potential flashpoint for regional security. from Floating Megabomb Heaves to Near the English Coast [CEPA]

Ammonium nitrate previously: The Beirut Port Explosion: Forensic Architecture

posted by chavenet (14 comments total)

Ammonium nitrate is scary stuff. It was responsible for massive explosions in Texas in 1947 and again in 2005.
posted by TedW at 1:26 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

isn't it great that we don't use picric acid in explosives anymore.
posted by clavdivs at 1:52 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

I wonder if it'd be possible to have the ship's crew evacuated and then a careful, controlled transfer to a trusted ship bound for either the original destination or an acceptable third port?
posted by Grimp0teuthis at 1:53 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

It's not clear from the articles who the intended recipient of all this NH4NO3 is supposed to be. When it loaded up and departed Kandalaksha in August, whose address was on the bill of lading? Shouldn't that party be arranging for it to dock somewhere? Seems to me the choices are:

1) The future owner of all this boom-making material shows up and takes responsibility
2) Go back to Russia
3) Try and force yourself into a port and get boarded or sunk from a distance by that nation's navy.

Seems the Ruby is trying to force some fourth option and absolutely no one is playing ball. I wonder how the crew is provisioned for a long stalemate.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 1:55 PM on September 29 [2 favorites]

It's not clear from the articles who the intended recipient of all this NH4NO3 is supposed to be. When it loaded up and departed Kandalaksha in August, whose address was on the bill of lading? Shouldn't that party be arranging for it to dock somewhere?

From this BBC article:

Its current destination is listed as Marsaxlokk, in Malta.

But Maltese authorities have told local media that the ship can only enter the country if it empties its cargo beforehand.

posted by slater at 2:20 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

That's the current destination, as its being escorted through UK waters, because the boat is owned by a Maltese firm. But it's not clear whether that was the original destination:

"But Maltese authorities have told local media that the ship can only enter the country if it empties its cargo beforehand."

Empties and gives to whom?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 2:27 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

what a great idea with the rest of the world being so stable and all
posted by lalochezia at 3:03 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

They keep the port of St Peterburg open all winter using icebreakers, right?

Lol if they have to spend the winter in Kaliningrad.
posted by ryanrs at 3:05 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

...I hear Mr Burns coming on deck now! EVERYONE LOOK BUSY!
posted by not_on_display at 3:07 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

What a weird story.

Assuming it's above board, Who orders 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate? Who loads a ship full of 20 kilotons of ammonia nitrate without some international coordination?

Assuming it's some planned para-military disruption attack, did they just put "20 kilotons explosive" on the manifest? Did they assume it'd be difficult to trace a cargo ship back to the last port it visited? Did they believe it wouldn't be viewed as an attack?

This is like that german pipeline sabotage where it's just like... even the most logical explanations are kinda shocking.
posted by midmarch snowman at 3:12 PM on September 29 [4 favorites]

Get the crew off and let the RN or RAF use it as target practice
posted by slater at 3:16 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

gCaptain thinks it's legit, not a hybrid warfare op
posted by ryanrs at 3:31 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

According to ryanrs link above:
There are 8-9 million tons of ammonium nitrate shipped per year.
It's an important export for Russia, from which about half of the shipping originates.
This was headed to the Canary Islands but sustained hull damage when going north of Norway.
The ship is known to the people who follow such things and they're taking appropriate caution.
The captain is trying to figure out offloading at sea to smaller vessels.
The scary news reporting started with Newsweek.
posted by Emmy Noether at 4:08 PM on September 29 [1 favorite]

I wish one of the articles would explain what prevents the ship from reaching the Canary Islands and unloading there, especially if they're talking about redirecting the ship to Malta. Does the damage it sustained prevent it from unloading in the Canaries?
posted by Reverend John at 4:14 PM on September 29