Harris to remain in power this time?
November 26, 2024 1:16 PM   Subscribe

Ireland heads to the polls on Friday with the expected incumbents expected to continue in power.

Ireland's economy is booming - there are budget surpluses, plus recently there was a 14 billion euro windfall from Apple (that's roughly €3000 for every person in Ireland). Brexit has been a largely positive thing for Ireland, in that any foreign investor looking to expand into Europe, looks at Ireland and goes - English speaking, in the EU, highly educated workforce, low corporate tax rates, ah go on then. There are potential storm clouds on the horizon where a lot of the tax take comes from a small handful of tech and pharmaceutical companies, but it's probably fine. The main drivers of the Irish economy are Tech, Pharmaceuticals, Tourism and Farming, and exports are higher than imports.

As a result of the success (and the conservative with a small C policies), there is now a massive housing crisis and a need for more infrastructure (rail and trams particularly), which is enormously expensive though the state should be able to afford it. Housing, health, infrastructure, cost of living are top priorities, and everything else - including unification with the north is not a priority in this election.

Politics in Ireland is generally BORING, technocratic and competent. Corruption and scandals are pretty minimal - a recent "big" scandal was an overly-expensive bike shed built at the parliament building, where they spent the equivalent of a house in Dublin on it, and recently Simon Harris (current prime minister) just had a mini-scandal where he was aloof and dismissive of a constituent.
The voting system here is Single Transferrable Vote - it's awesome but complicated, but essentially means you end up with coalitions of broadly centrist parties with fringe views pushed out and people voting on the issues that actually matter to them rather than voting against someone. This means government coalitions where 2-4 parties are in government at a time rather than a single party.

According to the polls, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail (centre-right, conservative with a small c, technocratic) should get approximately 20% of the vote each and be in coalition next time together with some independents, the Greens and perhaps the Social Democrats. Sinn Fein (centre-left populist nationalists) will get roughly 20% of the vote too but nobody particularly wants to work with them so are unlikely to form part of the government. Greens, Social Democrats, Labour and Aontú should each get roughly 5% of the vote/seats. Independents (mostly the good kind rather than the extremists) will make up the remainder of the elected members of parliament.

Follow live on the national broadcaster RTÉ from Friday evening for the exit poll and results - perhaps this time a person called Harris will get the top job!
posted by BigCalm (10 comments total) 12 users marked this as a favorite
 
A (deeply biased) overview of each party --

Fine Gael - centre-right, competent and technocractic, conservative with a small c, have together with Fianna Fail been in power for years. Practically indistinguishable from Fianna Fail ( they fought on opposite sides of the civil war a century ago, but in terms of policy they're pretty much the same now)
Fianna Fail - centre-right, competent and technocratic, conservative with a small c, have together with Fine Gael been in power for years. Practically indistinguishable from Fine Gael.
Sinn Fein - centre-left populist nationalists, yes to the welfare state, yes to interventionist policies on housing and transport, a bit racist on immigrants. Have a tendency to say whatever they think will get them elected, to the point where they regularly contradict themselves in different places. Pro-unification (they're in power in the north), leader Mary-Lou is AWFUL - a right moaning michael.
Greens - almost certain to be part of a coalition, everyone likes a green policy but the major parties aren't actually all that bad on green issues. The problem with the greens is they are a bit BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything) - i.e. NIMBYs on steroids - not what is needed right now.
Social Democrats - centre-left, liberal hand-wringing woke guardian-reading champagne-socialists.
Labour - left-wing and pro-union obviously, similar to UK labour but more farmer's union aligned, have suffered due to being in previous coalitions and taken the blame for some of the worse/most unpopular policies, and are at a low-ebb in their popularity currently. It's a cyclical thing, they're not popular now but they will make their way back at some point.
Aontú - Catholics. Traditionalists - anti-abortion, anti-gay, anti-woke. Defined by what they hate rather than by what they stand for.
Independent Ireland - Racists
People before Profit - Marxists, far-left.
Other Independents - Mostly extremists though there's a few popular local ex-councillor turned TD; People too racist for Independent Ireland; criminals ); people too Marxist for People before Profit.
posted by BigCalm at 1:19 PM on November 26 [9 favorites]


Thanks for that summary, BigCalm. I admit that contemporary Irish politics enters my timeline only in the context of Irish support for Palestine and Palestinian causes. Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?
posted by all the versus at 1:41 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]


Pro-unification (they're in power in the north)

So how far off is TNG likely to be?
posted by supercres at 1:47 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]


Interesting and hilarious - thanks BigCalm. Been meaning to dive more deeply into Irish politics (might try to retire there one day, though I'm one generation off from being grandfathered into citizenship). I listened to a recent podcast covering voting in Ireland, and hadn't until then realized they've been onto STV for a hundred years. Nice!
posted by angelplasma at 1:50 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]


There are slight differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael - FF tend to be more socially conservative for example, with the party being more split on things like the abortion referendum. However, they are pretty interchangeable and one or the other (and more recently both) has been in government in Ireland pretty much since the beginning of the State.

The Single Transferable Vote is awesome, but its complexity does make it difficult for polls to predict a winner, as everything goes down to transfers. And voters have their own ways of deciding their preferences, which don't always make sense to an outsider. (There will always be some people giving their no 1 to People before Profit, say, but no. 2 to an extreme right-winger.)

The counting of the results will only start on Saturday morning, and usually goes on for several days as it's all done by hand, sometimes with recounts in individual constituencies.
posted by scorbet at 1:50 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]


I admit that contemporary Irish politics enters my timeline only in the context of Irish support for Palestine and Palestinian causes. Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?

Mostly, because it's not a "top" issue (housing, infrastructure, cost of living, health), the government's stance is not particularly controversial / discussed by other parties. It's nice to be on the right side of history I guess.

So how far off is TNG likely to be?

At least a generation, and (perhaps slightly controversial here) it might not happen at all. Right now, there is no border, citizens in either country can work in the other, the tax regimes and the laws are very similar - in practical terms, there is no advantage to union -- this is not an East Germany-West Germany tear down that wall situation. Also bear in mind that the island of Ireland as a single independent nation state has not existed for approximately 900 years - 400 years before the Americas were discovered - if you think that it's destiny that the two nations (north and south) might one day be a united nation - I mean, why? Because of similar cultures? Ireland has a very similar culture to Britain too but I don't see any calls for union there! I suspect rather than the "it's fate that the two must join", other paths are possible in future, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
posted by BigCalm at 2:04 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]


Are there considerable differences between the parties on this subject?

Not really between the main three (FF, FG, SF) at least. If anything, SF would be even more vehement about it. I wouldn't rule out one or more of the extreme candidates or the smaller parties being pro-Israel but even one of the pro-Russia independent candidates supports Palestine.
posted by scorbet at 2:08 PM on November 26 [2 favorites]


Ireland is a small country far away? Not so small, if the Republic became the 51st state it would rank 24 in population: after MN and SC but more folks than AL and LA. Pol-wonk Gav Reilly explained PR-STV with smarties [3m] earlier this year [cited by roolya-boolya in the EuroElection thread]. Former minister and commentator Ivan Yates talks about the realkanvass in Ireland [16m].

Boyle Sports has odds on all sorts of numbers and combos. Gerry "The Monk" Hutch, the criminal cited above, is evens to take a seat in the same Dublin constituency as MaryLou McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader. In contrast to the regular fascists Hutch welcomes immigrants, so long as they bring their tool-chests.
posted by BobTheScientist at 2:11 PM on November 26 [3 favorites]


I suspect rather than the "it's fate that the two must join", other paths are possible in future, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong.

It's good to hear your perspective re: borders and lack of necessity. I wonder how much of the idea is being driven from outside of Ireland. Here in the Boston area it's quite common for people to put a 26 + 6 = 1 bumper sticker on their car.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 2:17 PM on November 26 [1 favorite]


Gerry "The Monk" Hutch, the criminal cited above, is evens to take a seat in the same Dublin constituency as MaryLou McDonald, the Sinn Féin leader.

Jaysus. I'm glad I don't have to make a preference list in Dublin Central. Who's worse? Clare Daly (the aforementioned pro-Russian candidate), one of those regular fascists or the convicted criminal? With the Aontú and the "Centre Party" (formerly known as Renua) guys to round it out.
posted by scorbet at 2:27 PM on November 26


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