Don't let the cabinet door hit your ass on the way out.
April 10, 2010 2:50 PM Subscribe
Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper has ejected cabinet minister Helena Guergis from the Tory caucus following allegations of impropriety. The RCMP is investigating claims that her husband, former MP Rahim Jaffer, was conducting his private business through her office. In her resignation letter, she calls the rumours "baseless allegations and unfounded assertions."
Despite Jaffer being defeated in the 2008 election, he was using the Conservative Party's logo on his website until this week, when the party requested him to remove it following the publication of a story that had him linked with a businessman boasting to business associates, “Mr. Jaffer has opened up the Prime Minister’s office to us.”
The couple are no strangers to controversy. Jaffer was elected in 1997 and came to prominence in 2001 when he was obliged to apologize to the House of Commons after an aide impersonated Jaffer in a radio interview. He rebounded from the scandal to become chair of the Conservative Caucus. His surprise defeat in 2008 was followed by an arrest on charges of drunk driving and cocaine possession late last year . The charges were dropped and he pleaded guilty to careless driving last month, which caused some criticism of the Tories 'tough-on-crime' stance.
Guergis was elected in 2004 by a slender margin, after campaigning both for and against same-sex marriage. Following her 2008 re-election, she was appointed Minister of State (Status of Women). In February of this year Guergis had a notable confrontation with airport security and despite a later apology by press release, she later declared she was considering a lawsuit against Air Canada. Canadian observers today are wondering what could cause a Prime Minister to send the RCMP to the door of one of his cabinet ministers.
Despite Jaffer being defeated in the 2008 election, he was using the Conservative Party's logo on his website until this week, when the party requested him to remove it following the publication of a story that had him linked with a businessman boasting to business associates, “Mr. Jaffer has opened up the Prime Minister’s office to us.”
The couple are no strangers to controversy. Jaffer was elected in 1997 and came to prominence in 2001 when he was obliged to apologize to the House of Commons after an aide impersonated Jaffer in a radio interview. He rebounded from the scandal to become chair of the Conservative Caucus. His surprise defeat in 2008 was followed by an arrest on charges of drunk driving and cocaine possession late last year . The charges were dropped and he pleaded guilty to careless driving last month, which caused some criticism of the Tories 'tough-on-crime' stance.
Guergis was elected in 2004 by a slender margin, after campaigning both for and against same-sex marriage. Following her 2008 re-election, she was appointed Minister of State (Status of Women). In February of this year Guergis had a notable confrontation with airport security and despite a later apology by press release, she later declared she was considering a lawsuit against Air Canada. Canadian observers today are wondering what could cause a Prime Minister to send the RCMP to the door of one of his cabinet ministers.
This is a great, comprehensive post! What an impressive collection of misdeeds. I have been sort of gleeful about their public humiliation since I saw that Star article.
Today's Toronto Sun cover is pretty grotesque even though I can't stand Helena Guergis.
posted by bewilderbeast at 3:00 PM on April 10, 2010
Today's Toronto Sun cover is pretty grotesque even though I can't stand Helena Guergis.
posted by bewilderbeast at 3:00 PM on April 10, 2010
Fantastic post, ricochet biscuit. Best sum-up I've seen so far. Thanks.
posted by threetoed at 3:05 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by threetoed at 3:05 PM on April 10, 2010
This is a fantastic post, well done.
But you missed one thing. Guergis' aides sent letters to the editors on her behalf without disclosing who they were.
Well, it's probably in one of the links, but it's worth highlighting.
And this isn't meant as a criticism, the amount of scandals they've been in recently, it's hard to point them all out!
posted by Lemurrhea at 3:07 PM on April 10, 2010
But you missed one thing. Guergis' aides sent letters to the editors on her behalf without disclosing who they were.
Well, it's probably in one of the links, but it's worth highlighting.
And this isn't meant as a criticism, the amount of scandals they've been in recently, it's hard to point them all out!
posted by Lemurrhea at 3:07 PM on April 10, 2010
This CBC article has a video of Wayne Easter calling her out in the House of Commons for the letter-writing thing, and her response.
posted by bewilderbeast at 3:11 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by bewilderbeast at 3:11 PM on April 10, 2010
Guergis is also dealing with an ethics complaint on the basis that she got an $880,000 mortgage, possibly with zero-down, from Jaffer's former bank while in office.
She sounds like a real piece of work. I actually live in Charlottetown, where the airport tantrum occurred, and people have been out for blood since then.
posted by Hiker at 3:24 PM on April 10, 2010
She sounds like a real piece of work. I actually live in Charlottetown, where the airport tantrum occurred, and people have been out for blood since then.
posted by Hiker at 3:24 PM on April 10, 2010
Missing the 'BustyHookers' tag.
posted by mazola at 3:28 PM on April 10, 2010 [4 favorites]
posted by mazola at 3:28 PM on April 10, 2010 [4 favorites]
Jaffer's alleged activity might more accurately be described as 'under-the-influence peddling'.
posted by mazola at 3:32 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by mazola at 3:32 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Yeah, #bustyhookers was actually a major trending topic on Twitter for several days last week, too.
posted by KokuRyu at 3:45 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by KokuRyu at 3:45 PM on April 10, 2010
bewilderbeast: that cover is actually disgusting. I thought we got over this explicit bashing of powerful women (at least in public! at least stopped calling them bitches!) with Belinda Stronach however many years ago.
It brings to mind this article, entitled "You Win When They Call You A Bitch", as in “I win! You aren’t smart enough to continue the conversation, so thanks for ending it.” Not that I think this line of inquiry into the Tories actions should stop, but this bitch thing definitely should.
posted by hepta at 3:59 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
It brings to mind this article, entitled "You Win When They Call You A Bitch", as in “I win! You aren’t smart enough to continue the conversation, so thanks for ending it.” Not that I think this line of inquiry into the Tories actions should stop, but this bitch thing definitely should.
posted by hepta at 3:59 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
By many accounts this demotion is a good thing. We're talking about a Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs who goes to Mexico regarding a a Canadian citizen who had been in jail for two years without trial, has drinks with some dignitaries but doesn't even see the woman in jail. Her reason? "That’s not my job. There are 13 Canadians in Mexican jails and if I visit one, I have to visit them all."
A sense of blatant venality and entitlement runs through the reporting on Mr. Jaffer's and Ms. Guergis' public lives. Good riddance to elitist boobs with no comprehension of what public service really means.
posted by Hardcore Poser at 4:07 PM on April 10, 2010 [3 favorites]
A sense of blatant venality and entitlement runs through the reporting on Mr. Jaffer's and Ms. Guergis' public lives. Good riddance to elitist boobs with no comprehension of what public service really means.
posted by Hardcore Poser at 4:07 PM on April 10, 2010 [3 favorites]
I suspect she has done something criminal and political, involving her husband's promise of having access to Harper.
posted by five fresh fish at 6:01 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by five fresh fish at 6:01 PM on April 10, 2010
Listening to the house on CBC this morning, I got the impression that Guergis was thrown out of cabinet and caucus for something being investigated by the RCMP - in other words, something the public doesn't know about yet.
The Guergis/Jaffer story is turning from one of everyday corruption into one of cartoonish banana-republic level corruption. Previously I would have found it hard to believe that a fairly low-level government MP would have the power to cause so much trouble.
The narrative for the eventual Tory defeat is starting to take form - power is corrupting them - Harper played constitutional games by proroguing parliament, and MP's like Guergis are getting/demanding all kinds of special treatment. In terms of accountability and transparency, the Harper Conservatives are really no better than than sponsorship-era Liberals.
I'm still not excited about Count Iggy as PM though... Iggy needs to set himself apart from the Conservatives and the old Liberals.
posted by Deep Dish at 6:26 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
The Guergis/Jaffer story is turning from one of everyday corruption into one of cartoonish banana-republic level corruption. Previously I would have found it hard to believe that a fairly low-level government MP would have the power to cause so much trouble.
The narrative for the eventual Tory defeat is starting to take form - power is corrupting them - Harper played constitutional games by proroguing parliament, and MP's like Guergis are getting/demanding all kinds of special treatment. In terms of accountability and transparency, the Harper Conservatives are really no better than than sponsorship-era Liberals.
I'm still not excited about Count Iggy as PM though... Iggy needs to set himself apart from the Conservatives and the old Liberals.
posted by Deep Dish at 6:26 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Jaffer's connections to an organized crime banker.
posted by acro at 6:32 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by acro at 6:32 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Thrilled to see these two assclowns getting pilloried. Let's hope there's a real investigation.
posted by stinkycheese at 6:50 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by stinkycheese at 6:50 PM on April 10, 2010
The Guergis/Jaffer story is turning from one of everyday corruption into one of cartoonish banana-republic level corruption.
Nah, that's nothing. If you want true banana republic politics, come to BC, where 3 of the last 3 solicitors general (the SG is the head of the police) have resigned because they were being investigated by the police: Exit of star candidate caps off a bad week for government
Beyond the details of each controversy, there's the emerging picture of a government running out of ideas, embroiled in scandal and losing control of the agenda. From past experience, you know where this can lead...
...Controversies come and go. But at the end of the day, it is the swelling chorus of laughter that does you in.
posted by KokuRyu at 7:46 PM on April 10, 2010 [2 favorites]
Nah, that's nothing. If you want true banana republic politics, come to BC, where 3 of the last 3 solicitors general (the SG is the head of the police) have resigned because they were being investigated by the police: Exit of star candidate caps off a bad week for government
Beyond the details of each controversy, there's the emerging picture of a government running out of ideas, embroiled in scandal and losing control of the agenda. From past experience, you know where this can lead...
...Controversies come and go. But at the end of the day, it is the swelling chorus of laughter that does you in.
posted by KokuRyu at 7:46 PM on April 10, 2010 [2 favorites]
The RCMP is investigating claims that her husband, former MP Rahim Jaffer, was conducting his private business through her office. In her resignation letter, she calls the rumours "baseless allegations and unfounded assertions."
Canada has its' Sarah Pallin. Yay Canada! See Yanks, we can be just as corrupt and stupid as you if we really try.
posted by Keith Talent at 7:49 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Canada has its' Sarah Pallin. Yay Canada! See Yanks, we can be just as corrupt and stupid as you if we really try.
posted by Keith Talent at 7:49 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
I don't think it's really fair to compare Guergis to Sarah Palin.
posted by KokuRyu at 8:00 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by KokuRyu at 8:00 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
When I first read that she was ejected, I was really hoping it would be something like this.
If only.
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:09 PM on April 10, 2010
If only.
posted by Lemurrhea at 8:09 PM on April 10, 2010
It will be interesting to see how this develops, in a schadenfreudy sort of way. But the antics of Guergis and Jaffer are more of a sideshow than a main event, since they appear to be limited in extent and were quickly contained by the Conservatives. I'd love to see Harper fall, but when it happens it'll be because of widespread dissatisfaction with the government's performance and a clear alternative from one of the other parties. Until those elements are in place, these sort of scandals will probably come and go like spring storms.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:18 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by Kevin Street at 10:18 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Or the drip drip dripping of water torture.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:41 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
posted by five fresh fish at 10:41 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]
Aides writing misleading letters of support, zero-down-payment mortgage, busty hookers, the Brenda Martin affair... I knew about all of these things but I had to end the post somewhere. If I chronicled every misdeed from these jokers, I would still be composing the FPP right now.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:43 PM on April 10, 2010
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:43 PM on April 10, 2010
KokuRyu, I'm glad you were so prompt in objecting to the Palin comparison, which I think is just a little lazy and/or se- nevermind that can of worms. I wanted to vote out the corrupt Liberals too, but a Conservative vote means little in Central Alberta. So I donated my vote to the NDP in the hope they'd use it to buy a song. Still waiting for that.
...after campaigning both for and against same-sex marriage.
Not that I can't find it myself, but could you substantiate that please? Good thorough post otherwise.
posted by randomyahoo at 2:13 AM on April 11, 2010
...after campaigning both for and against same-sex marriage.
Not that I can't find it myself, but could you substantiate that please? Good thorough post otherwise.
posted by randomyahoo at 2:13 AM on April 11, 2010
I thought we got over this explicit bashing of powerful women (at least in public! at least stopped calling them bitches!) with Belinda Stronach however many years ago.
Stronach was incompetent and self-serving, and deserved to be bashed though not at all for being a woman.
posted by swimming naked when the tide goes out at 2:29 AM on April 11, 2010
Stronach was incompetent and self-serving, and deserved to be bashed though not at all for being a woman.
posted by swimming naked when the tide goes out at 2:29 AM on April 11, 2010
Stephen Harper has ejected cabinet minister Helen Guergis...
Flagged for false and misleading lead.
I mean, it's good news, I guess, since that whole government there certainly seems like one big pack of crooks... but I was really hoping for some sort of catapult, here, or at least a spring-loaded chair.
posted by rokusan at 5:20 AM on April 11, 2010
Flagged for false and misleading lead.
I mean, it's good news, I guess, since that whole government there certainly seems like one big pack of crooks... but I was really hoping for some sort of catapult, here, or at least a spring-loaded chair.
posted by rokusan at 5:20 AM on April 11, 2010
So when is parliament being prorogued again?
posted by dnesan at 7:54 AM on April 11, 2010 [5 favorites]
posted by dnesan at 7:54 AM on April 11, 2010 [5 favorites]
...after campaigning both for and against same-sex marriage.
Not that I can't find it myself, but could you substantiate that please? Good thorough post otherwise.
From the wikipedia link for Helena Guergis:
When running for provincial office in 2003 in the socially liberal riding of Trinity—Spadina, Guergis said that she would vote in favour of same-sex marriage if given the opportunity. Responding to a question on same-sex marriage at an all-candidates debate, she said, "I believe in the right to choose, so I would be voting in favour of it."[11]
Campaigning the following year in the socially conservative riding of Simcoe—Grey, Guergis said that she would vote against the federal government's proposed legalization of same-sex marriage. She argued that the majority of her constituents opposed the initiative, and that she was committed to supporting their views. Guergis did in fact vote against Bill C-38, which granted legal sanction to same-sex marriage, in 2005. [12]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:39 AM on April 11, 2010
Not that I can't find it myself, but could you substantiate that please? Good thorough post otherwise.
From the wikipedia link for Helena Guergis:
When running for provincial office in 2003 in the socially liberal riding of Trinity—Spadina, Guergis said that she would vote in favour of same-sex marriage if given the opportunity. Responding to a question on same-sex marriage at an all-candidates debate, she said, "I believe in the right to choose, so I would be voting in favour of it."[11]
Campaigning the following year in the socially conservative riding of Simcoe—Grey, Guergis said that she would vote against the federal government's proposed legalization of same-sex marriage. She argued that the majority of her constituents opposed the initiative, and that she was committed to supporting their views. Guergis did in fact vote against Bill C-38, which granted legal sanction to same-sex marriage, in 2005. [12]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:39 AM on April 11, 2010
I don't think it's really fair to compare Guergis to Sarah Palin.
Not without taking into account the exchange rate anyway.
posted by srboisvert at 11:55 AM on April 11, 2010 [2 favorites]
Not without taking into account the exchange rate anyway.
posted by srboisvert at 11:55 AM on April 11, 2010 [2 favorites]
Guergis/Jaffer are criminal thugs. C'mon, Conservatives-- get "tough on crime" and put these crooks behind bars.
posted by Fuzzy Monster at 12:47 PM on April 11, 2010
posted by Fuzzy Monster at 12:47 PM on April 11, 2010
get "tough on crime" and put these crooks behind bars.
Get serious. Sure they may have broken the law, but it's not like they're poor or something.
posted by Kirk Grim at 1:32 PM on April 11, 2010 [1 favorite]
Get serious. Sure they may have broken the law, but it's not like they're poor or something.
posted by Kirk Grim at 1:32 PM on April 11, 2010 [1 favorite]
Guergis and Jaffer are (politically and perhaps entrepreneurially speaking) idiots, not criminal masterminds. They remind me of the Young Conservatives who belonged to the nominally outlawed frats back when I was an undergrad at UVic: oily, lots of make-up, fueled by cocaine and driving a Mercedes daddy bought.
posted by KokuRyu at 2:27 PM on April 11, 2010
posted by KokuRyu at 2:27 PM on April 11, 2010
The Star has a handy chronology of events for this sordid saga.
As a resident of Jaffer's former riding in Edmonton, I can attest this chronology accurately and comprehensively presents his achievements as MP 1997-2008.
posted by mazola at 7:34 PM on April 11, 2010
As a resident of Jaffer's former riding in Edmonton, I can attest this chronology accurately and comprehensively presents his achievements as MP 1997-2008.
posted by mazola at 7:34 PM on April 11, 2010
Deep Dish: "The narrative for the eventual Tory defeat is starting to take form - power is corrupting them - Harper played constitutional games by proroguing parliament, and MP's like Guergis are getting/demanding all kinds of special treatment. In terms of accountability and transparency, the Harper Conservatives are really no better than than sponsorship-era Liberals.
Well, yes: it's a fair guess that around 65% of Canadians (the number that according to the latest Nanos poll (12 Mar 2010)) do not support the Tories as their first choice in the next election hold to this narrative, a number that has more or less held steady for quite a while now. Now, maybe this latest scandal will push the polling numbers significantly -- I moved [back--please don't hold my citizenship against me :)] to the States last year, so I don't have a solid feel for the political atmosphere on the scene, as it were.
But it seems to me that federal Canadian politics, in lieu of some new personality of PET or JFK-level charisma, or some unforeseen game-changing issue, is essentially stalemated. The Right is united under the CPC, with a reasonably strong plurality. The Left is stably fragmented among centre-left federalists (Grits), social-democratic federalists (Dippers) and centre-to-left Quebecois nationalists (BQ). Harper's push against the Liberals in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec is basically at its high-water mark. People who haven't already been convinced to vote Tory are unlikely to now, and even if there's some NDP/Tory bleeding to the Liberals, I can't see it being enough to win Iggy a strong minority, let alone an absolute majority -- especially given that in the last go-round the NDP made gains on the Grits even with a Tory in Sussex Drive. Barring some weird Quebec dustup from changing the game over there, I'd say the best chance for a breaking of the stalemate is an attempt ata Lib/NDP/Green coalition oh wait didn't they try that last ti
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:59 PM on April 11, 2010 [1 favorite]
Well, yes: it's a fair guess that around 65% of Canadians (the number that according to the latest Nanos poll (12 Mar 2010)) do not support the Tories as their first choice in the next election hold to this narrative, a number that has more or less held steady for quite a while now. Now, maybe this latest scandal will push the polling numbers significantly -- I moved [back--please don't hold my citizenship against me :)] to the States last year, so I don't have a solid feel for the political atmosphere on the scene, as it were.
But it seems to me that federal Canadian politics, in lieu of some new personality of PET or JFK-level charisma, or some unforeseen game-changing issue, is essentially stalemated. The Right is united under the CPC, with a reasonably strong plurality. The Left is stably fragmented among centre-left federalists (Grits), social-democratic federalists (Dippers) and centre-to-left Quebecois nationalists (BQ). Harper's push against the Liberals in Ontario and the Bloc in Quebec is basically at its high-water mark. People who haven't already been convinced to vote Tory are unlikely to now, and even if there's some NDP/Tory bleeding to the Liberals, I can't see it being enough to win Iggy a strong minority, let alone an absolute majority -- especially given that in the last go-round the NDP made gains on the Grits even with a Tory in Sussex Drive. Barring some weird Quebec dustup from changing the game over there, I'd say the best chance for a breaking of the stalemate is an attempt at
posted by tivalasvegas at 9:59 PM on April 11, 2010 [1 favorite]
I'd say the best chance for a breaking of the stalemate is an attempt at a Lib/NDP/Green coalition oh wait didn't they try that last ti
There's your problem; Conservatives in Canada have figured out how to play the politics of compromise for the sake of getting elected.
The Liberals can't even get their own party in line (a sign that perhaps it's time to throw in the towel) and the NDP understand that they only gain when the Liberals lose.
You see it in the U.S. too; traditional, moderate conservatives have put their differences aside to align themselves with the fringe right for the sake of getting elected. The left spent 8 years watching them make mistake after mistake and it still took the most charismatic leader of my lifetime to get them into power.
The Conservatives play the political game in both countries so much better than the left; there seems to be a significant part of the left-leaning population who refuse to believe that political positioning and compromising on values is actually a valid part of the political process. Get yourself elected, then worry about getting your mandate through.
posted by Hiker at 7:25 AM on April 12, 2010
There's your problem; Conservatives in Canada have figured out how to play the politics of compromise for the sake of getting elected.
The Liberals can't even get their own party in line (a sign that perhaps it's time to throw in the towel) and the NDP understand that they only gain when the Liberals lose.
You see it in the U.S. too; traditional, moderate conservatives have put their differences aside to align themselves with the fringe right for the sake of getting elected. The left spent 8 years watching them make mistake after mistake and it still took the most charismatic leader of my lifetime to get them into power.
The Conservatives play the political game in both countries so much better than the left; there seems to be a significant part of the left-leaning population who refuse to believe that political positioning and compromising on values is actually a valid part of the political process. Get yourself elected, then worry about getting your mandate through.
posted by Hiker at 7:25 AM on April 12, 2010
I'd say the best chance for a breaking of the stalemate is an attempt at a Lib/NDP/Green coalition oh wait didn't they try that last ti
Fucking Iggy.
posted by Jairus at 8:57 AM on April 12, 2010
Fucking Iggy.
posted by Jairus at 8:57 AM on April 12, 2010
"Tories pushed for PM to fire Guergis: Helena Guergis's star had already fallen sharply at home before it exploded in such dramatic fashion in Ottawa."
posted by mazola at 8:59 AM on April 12, 2010
posted by mazola at 8:59 AM on April 12, 2010
I am no longer represented by Rahim Jaffer. I am no longer represented by Rahim Jaffer. I am no longer represented by Rahim Jaffer. I'm still very happy about this! We should have weekly, "I am no longer represented by Rahim Jaffer" parties in Strathcona.
I can't help but wondering if Ms. Guergis sometimes (or even often) regrets her spontaneous, "Let's get married NOW!" suggestion to Jaffer immediately after his election loss. Not that she's completely perfect, but her partnership with Jaffer really seemed to take her problems to an entirely new level.
posted by Kurichina at 11:59 AM on April 12, 2010 [1 favorite]
I can't help but wondering if Ms. Guergis sometimes (or even often) regrets her spontaneous, "Let's get married NOW!" suggestion to Jaffer immediately after his election loss. Not that she's completely perfect, but her partnership with Jaffer really seemed to take her problems to an entirely new level.
posted by Kurichina at 11:59 AM on April 12, 2010 [1 favorite]
more. "…the use of her parliamentary offices and car by her husband, Rahim Jaffer."
That douchebag Jaffer was hanging out with was apparently a banker for the Hell's Angels in Vancouver. I'd like to see both of those turkeys held accountable.
posted by five fresh fish at 9:17 AM on April 13, 2010
That douchebag Jaffer was hanging out with was apparently a banker for the Hell's Angels in Vancouver. I'd like to see both of those turkeys held accountable.
posted by five fresh fish at 9:17 AM on April 13, 2010
I moved [back--please don't hold my citizenship against me :)] to the States last year, so I don't have a solid feel for the political atmosphere on the scene, as it were.
It really hasn't changed much - I'd say the people who don't like Harper (or more generally the Conservatives) are considerably grumpier than they were a year ago and the Conservatives have lost their soft supporters. I've never seen so many protest groups.
A lot of that soft support was in BC and Ontario has bled away because of the grumpiness towards the Conservatives. This is important because they are key battlegrounds, so this could translate into some loss of Conservative seats. In my home turf, I suspect that a couple of Saskatchewan ridings (and possibly as many as three - Palliser, one of the northern seats, and Saskatoon-Humboldt) could swing NDP.
A Liberal minority is probably in striking distance (I'd say the Cons squeak out a slim minority gov't if the election is held today), but Ignatieff really has had trouble making any gains.. he's really no more popular than Stephane Dion but the anyone-but-Harper sentiment is getting stronger. A charismatic Liberal leader would be PM in less than a year.
posted by Deep Dish at 9:28 AM on April 13, 2010
It really hasn't changed much - I'd say the people who don't like Harper (or more generally the Conservatives) are considerably grumpier than they were a year ago and the Conservatives have lost their soft supporters. I've never seen so many protest groups.
A lot of that soft support was in BC and Ontario has bled away because of the grumpiness towards the Conservatives. This is important because they are key battlegrounds, so this could translate into some loss of Conservative seats. In my home turf, I suspect that a couple of Saskatchewan ridings (and possibly as many as three - Palliser, one of the northern seats, and Saskatoon-Humboldt) could swing NDP.
A Liberal minority is probably in striking distance (I'd say the Cons squeak out a slim minority gov't if the election is held today), but Ignatieff really has had trouble making any gains.. he's really no more popular than Stephane Dion but the anyone-but-Harper sentiment is getting stronger. A charismatic Liberal leader would be PM in less than a year.
posted by Deep Dish at 9:28 AM on April 13, 2010
Hrm. How soft is the Green vote nowadays? --my sense last election was that it may have been a significant spoiler. (I supported the Greens myself; my then-riding (Hamilton Centre) is the most safely Socialist seat this side of Havana so I had no misgivings about trying to convince all my friends to send their vote and their $1.75 Lizzie May-ward on behalf of my sorry unenfranchised ass.)
how i miss those bright pastel green and orange signs lining the streets, with nary a red or blue sign in sight! i pine away, here in the one-party state of Chi-daley-land... .
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:25 AM on April 13, 2010
how i miss those bright pastel green and orange signs lining the streets, with nary a red or blue sign in sight! i pine away, here in the one-party state of Chi-daley-land... .
posted by tivalasvegas at 10:25 AM on April 13, 2010
The Conservative government's Ethics Commissioner, appointed by Conservative PM Stephen Harper is refusing to investigate the expelled Conservative cabinet minister Helena Guergis.
Is this part where I say, "This is my surprised face"?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:58 PM on April 13, 2010
Is this part where I say, "This is my surprised face"?
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:58 PM on April 13, 2010
The Conservatives have a baffling, but one-hundred percent reliable predilection to make any scandal worse by refusing to admit that they have ever done anything wrong. They'd burn Ottawa to the ground before admitting a single flaw. If the opposition parties had any charisma they could've turned this trait into political gold by now. So maybe the scandal still has the potential to get interesting if the government keeps on trying to suppress it, and details keep leaking out. Now there's a private eye and potential blackmail involved? Tell me more, Fourth Estate!
posted by Kevin Street at 10:12 PM on April 13, 2010
posted by Kevin Street at 10:12 PM on April 13, 2010
Gods, what a pathetic bunch of lazy arses we have elected. Not a single one of substance as far as I can tell.
posted by five fresh fish at 10:31 PM on April 13, 2010
posted by five fresh fish at 10:31 PM on April 13, 2010
How soft is the Green vote nowadays? --my sense last election was that it may have been a significant spoiler
Last time I saw a poll (Ekos, maybe a week or two ago) the Greens were running at about 12%, which I thought was pretty impressive. I'd be pretty surprised if the Greens received that level of support on election day... I find the Greens and NDP support tends to show up in polls but not the ballot box - the Liberals always seem to get a bit of a bounce. I've never really been able to explain that phenomenon.
Elizabeth May has had a very low profile in recent months... can't recall the last time I saw her on the radio or t.v. Harper probably gets 75% of the mainstream media coverage, with maybe 20% to the Liberals, and most of the remainder goes to the NDP. Gilles Duceppe is doing a series of meetings with people outside Quebec, and it seems to be gaining very little attention (except from the usual reactionary trolls who appear in places like the CBC web site's comment board). Support for the BQ might be a wildcard in the next election, they are looking a little tired and some people think that Quebec nationalists are starting to split on the left/right political axis (I think that is happening, just not sure that its a big factor yet).
I'm not too keen on a formal "progressive coalition" led by the Liberals unless they share a lot of cabinet seats and senate appointments, but I think strategic voting is fine - I just worry that people are not well-informed about local races to figure out how to do it correctly. Hopefully there will be a number of blogs and web sites that instruct people on how the races in their communities generally play out.
posted by Deep Dish at 10:36 PM on April 13, 2010
Last time I saw a poll (Ekos, maybe a week or two ago) the Greens were running at about 12%, which I thought was pretty impressive. I'd be pretty surprised if the Greens received that level of support on election day... I find the Greens and NDP support tends to show up in polls but not the ballot box - the Liberals always seem to get a bit of a bounce. I've never really been able to explain that phenomenon.
Elizabeth May has had a very low profile in recent months... can't recall the last time I saw her on the radio or t.v. Harper probably gets 75% of the mainstream media coverage, with maybe 20% to the Liberals, and most of the remainder goes to the NDP. Gilles Duceppe is doing a series of meetings with people outside Quebec, and it seems to be gaining very little attention (except from the usual reactionary trolls who appear in places like the CBC web site's comment board). Support for the BQ might be a wildcard in the next election, they are looking a little tired and some people think that Quebec nationalists are starting to split on the left/right political axis (I think that is happening, just not sure that its a big factor yet).
I'm not too keen on a formal "progressive coalition" led by the Liberals unless they share a lot of cabinet seats and senate appointments, but I think strategic voting is fine - I just worry that people are not well-informed about local races to figure out how to do it correctly. Hopefully there will be a number of blogs and web sites that instruct people on how the races in their communities generally play out.
posted by Deep Dish at 10:36 PM on April 13, 2010
So maybe the scandal still has the potential to get interesting if the government keeps on trying to suppress it, and details keep leaking out.
Heh, quoted for truth. For about five years now, MPs on all sides have seemed to be remarkably incompetent -- not at the art of good governance per se (although, that too) -- but at the art of politics itself. Not that politicians exist for the entertainment of the political nerds.
but really, they do.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:08 AM on April 14, 2010
Heh, quoted for truth. For about five years now, MPs on all sides have seemed to be remarkably incompetent -- not at the art of good governance per se (although, that too) -- but at the art of politics itself. Not that politicians exist for the entertainment of the political nerds.
but really, they do.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:08 AM on April 14, 2010
oh and Deep Dish... thanks for the Green update. It's those intuition-y things like 3rd-party (well, fourth- or fifth-party) strength that's hard to get a read on when you've only got access to online media.
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:11 AM on April 14, 2010
posted by tivalasvegas at 4:11 AM on April 14, 2010
So now it's come out that the PM's Office did not make a 'formal' request for the Ethics Commissioner to investigate, but rather informed her of some of the details. And since the Ethics Commissioner has a specific mandate that she adheres to religiously, she didn't follow up because the stuff from the PMO didn't constitute an official request. The situation is now described as a 'standoff' between the PM and his own Ethics Czar.
Good lord. In what way can this NOT be construed as either incompetency or and incredible reluctance to act? How can things be this Mickey-Mouse in Ottawa, and how much do they think people will swallow?
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:36 PM on April 15, 2010
Good lord. In what way can this NOT be construed as either incompetency or and incredible reluctance to act? How can things be this Mickey-Mouse in Ottawa, and how much do they think people will swallow?
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:36 PM on April 15, 2010
'or an'
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:37 PM on April 15, 2010
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:37 PM on April 15, 2010
I hope these assholes all debacle themselves into oblivion. It's time for Canadians to get a fucking clue about who they're electing. Gah.
posted by five fresh fish at 11:29 PM on April 15, 2010
posted by five fresh fish at 11:29 PM on April 15, 2010
Oh, good gods. The detective now repudiates the tales of drugs and prostitutes, and has acknowledged being "over-enthusiastic" in his descriptions of his encounters with Jaffer… The revelations raise questions about whether the PMO did any due diligence on the Guergis allegations before she was turfed from cabinet and caucus.
Harper was saying just... er, today? "The PMO initially called the accusations against the former status of women minister "serious and credible," and used that phrasing as recently as Thursday morning. "
posted by five fresh fish at 11:36 PM on April 15, 2010
Harper was saying just... er, today? "The PMO initially called the accusations against the former status of women minister "serious and credible," and used that phrasing as recently as Thursday morning. "
posted by five fresh fish at 11:36 PM on April 15, 2010
Detective is also $13 million dollars in debt, so... make of that what you will.
posted by stinkycheese at 12:57 AM on April 16, 2010
posted by stinkycheese at 12:57 AM on April 16, 2010
The detective was sued by a former employee, who got the court to put a lien on the business, is what one of the follow up comments claims.
posted by five fresh fish at 7:12 AM on April 16, 2010
posted by five fresh fish at 7:12 AM on April 16, 2010
« Older tertium non data | You know who else liked lightening bolts? Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
Dude'll be getting this post in his email Monday at 8am.
posted by WinnipegDragon at 2:52 PM on April 10, 2010 [1 favorite]