Turn Out to Vote Out
July 3, 2024 10:47 PM Subscribe
At last, it's UK General Election day!
As Britons go to the polls, the choices are stark: plump for the unexciting former Director of Public Prosecutions whose party promises little more than to be Not the Tories, whose values somewhat align with roughly half the population, even if his government will face huge challenges in reversing the country's decline? Or stick with the former Chancellor of the Exchequer who stumbled into the top job thanks to the unacceptable behaviour and rank incompetence of his predecessors, armed with little more than unfounded optimism, considerable personal wealth and a privileged upbringing?
Will Britons vote in the hope that things might not be quite as shit? Or for waterways full of shit? For towering aspirations of a brighter future? Or for burning dodgily clad towers? For "wokeness" and "right on" policies and politics, or waking up to riots? For working with our European neighbours, or for strangling British business in red tape? For propping up public services, or for toppling them? For standing up to fascists or pandering to them?
The choices are so complex that one in five people still haven't decided yet to abandon the Tories. The question now is, will the rest vote 628 non-Tory MPs into Westminster (out of the 650 available seats) or only 493? And how many of those will be closet fascists—or their Facebook friends? Will Ed Davey's extended jolly of paddle-boarding and bungee-jumping end with his becoming the new leader of the opposition? Can Britain really consign one of its oldest political parties to the wilderness?
We'll find out at around 4am British Summer Time tomorrow.
As Britons go to the polls, the choices are stark: plump for the unexciting former Director of Public Prosecutions whose party promises little more than to be Not the Tories, whose values somewhat align with roughly half the population, even if his government will face huge challenges in reversing the country's decline? Or stick with the former Chancellor of the Exchequer who stumbled into the top job thanks to the unacceptable behaviour and rank incompetence of his predecessors, armed with little more than unfounded optimism, considerable personal wealth and a privileged upbringing?
Will Britons vote in the hope that things might not be quite as shit? Or for waterways full of shit? For towering aspirations of a brighter future? Or for burning dodgily clad towers? For "wokeness" and "right on" policies and politics, or waking up to riots? For working with our European neighbours, or for strangling British business in red tape? For propping up public services, or for toppling them? For standing up to fascists or pandering to them?
The choices are so complex that one in five people still haven't decided yet to abandon the Tories. The question now is, will the rest vote 628 non-Tory MPs into Westminster (out of the 650 available seats) or only 493? And how many of those will be closet fascists—or their Facebook friends? Will Ed Davey's extended jolly of paddle-boarding and bungee-jumping end with his becoming the new leader of the opposition? Can Britain really consign one of its oldest political parties to the wilderness?
We'll find out at around 4am British Summer Time tomorrow.
I will say this about Ed Davey - his numerous 'letting loose his inner 6 year old' activities have managed to keep him in the news, and remind people that the Lib Dems still exist pretty effectively. In a media environment that's heavily focused on just repeating the bilge of Nigel Farage (and Sunak), and the odd speculation about what will Labour do when in power, that's pretty hard to do. I think I've seen only one article about the Greens in the entire election campaign, and only a handful about the SNP, mostly critical. I wouldn't even know Plaid Cymru existed if it weren't for the multi-party debates.
Roll on tactical voting and the elimination of as many tories as possible - supposedly, polling indicates more than 20% of us will be doing so due to the unfit-for-purpose FPTP.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:11 PM on July 3 [8 favorites]
Roll on tactical voting and the elimination of as many tories as possible - supposedly, polling indicates more than 20% of us will be doing so due to the unfit-for-purpose FPTP.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 11:11 PM on July 3 [8 favorites]
Good luck everybody.
posted by Artw at 11:42 PM on July 3 [7 favorites]
posted by Artw at 11:42 PM on July 3 [7 favorites]
Today we Brits get a chance to sack the most corrupt, lying, lawless, greedy, inept, reckless, narcissistic, cynical, callous, self-serving, antidemocratic and lazy string of government ministers any of us have ever seen.
Let's do it with a song in our hearts. This is going to be fun!
[And don't forget your photo ID. Here's a list of what IDs are deemed acceptable. ]
posted by Paul Slade at 11:49 PM on July 3 [16 favorites]
Let's do it with a song in our hearts. This is going to be fun!
[And don't forget your photo ID. Here's a list of what IDs are deemed acceptable. ]
posted by Paul Slade at 11:49 PM on July 3 [16 favorites]
I'm in a Labour safe seat, so all my mates voted either Green or Rejoin EU Party.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:53 PM on July 3 [8 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 11:53 PM on July 3 [8 favorites]
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's final tweet on Election Eve was to celebrate that a village in his constituency has drinkable tap water. The comments are worth a quick scan
posted by el_presidente at 12:05 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by el_presidente at 12:05 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
I will say this about Ed Davey - his numerous 'letting loose his inner 6 year old' activities have managed to keep him in the news, and remind people that the Lib Dems still exist pretty effectively.
"Look we can't win anyway, let's just have fun with it, take a brilliant holiday, and have the party pay for it!"
posted by Dysk at 12:12 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
"Look we can't win anyway, let's just have fun with it, take a brilliant holiday, and have the party pay for it!"
posted by Dysk at 12:12 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Hands up expat voters who got their postal vote yesterday 👋
I mean, I expected to get it with not quite enough time to return it, but this is a fucking joke.
posted by How much is that froggie in the window at 12:22 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
I mean, I expected to get it with not quite enough time to return it, but this is a fucking joke.
posted by How much is that froggie in the window at 12:22 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Matt Parker, Stand-up Maths: UK Election charts are a nightmare.
posted by Pendragon at 12:22 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by Pendragon at 12:22 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Phil Moorhouse had a piece to camera [10m] about the postal ballot debacle.
"There's some potential Tory drama brewing as Kemi Badenoch could fall foul of the failure to get postal ballots out to people in her constituency. If the result for North West Essex is close, then the result could be legally void by a challenge from the loser. This would mean that Badenoch would not be an MP, and so not eligible to take part in the Tory leadership contest to replace Sunak. Popcorn potential here."
A geopolitical pedant from the WEA Western European Archipelago notes that, as well as Britons, adults among the ~2m people in N.I. will be voting today. Not to mention ~½million Irish diaspora in G.B.
posted by BobTheScientist at 1:08 AM on July 4 [15 favorites]
"There's some potential Tory drama brewing as Kemi Badenoch could fall foul of the failure to get postal ballots out to people in her constituency. If the result for North West Essex is close, then the result could be legally void by a challenge from the loser. This would mean that Badenoch would not be an MP, and so not eligible to take part in the Tory leadership contest to replace Sunak. Popcorn potential here."
A geopolitical pedant from the WEA Western European Archipelago notes that, as well as Britons, adults among the ~2m people in N.I. will be voting today. Not to mention ~½million Irish diaspora in G.B.
posted by BobTheScientist at 1:08 AM on July 4 [15 favorites]
as well as Britons, adults among the ~2m people in N.I. will be voting today
As well as naturalised British citizens who are not Britons themselves but didn't want to weigh the main post down with caveats. *cough*
posted by rory at 1:18 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
As well as naturalised British citizens who are not Britons themselves but didn't want to weigh the main post down with caveats. *cough*
posted by rory at 1:18 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Just a reminder that it's a legal requirement to share photos of any cute polling station dogs you see on the way to or from voting.
posted by fight or flight at 1:18 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 1:18 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
As well as naturalised British citizens who are not Britons themselves
Plus expatriates posting in their votes from abroad like myself. I'm just waiting to see if the Tories are going to be the official opposition or whether they have an even more calamitous night than is predicted and get pushed into third place behind the Lib Dems.
posted by BigCalm at 1:26 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Plus expatriates posting in their votes from abroad like myself. I'm just waiting to see if the Tories are going to be the official opposition or whether they have an even more calamitous night than is predicted and get pushed into third place behind the Lib Dems.
posted by BigCalm at 1:26 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I sent my postal vote off a while ago now, with the usual aim of getting rid of our Conservative incumbent. Looks like it's probably worked this time.
It's probably too much to hope for, but I have my fingers crossed that tactical voting means the Tories fail so hard tonight that they never recover. After everything they've done over the past 14 years it's the least they deserve.
posted by tomsk at 1:40 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
It's probably too much to hope for, but I have my fingers crossed that tactical voting means the Tories fail so hard tonight that they never recover. After everything they've done over the past 14 years it's the least they deserve.
posted by tomsk at 1:40 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
One theory I’ve heard is that the Tory party will take a kicking tonight, and absorb Farage’s current party to come back in five years as a kind of ultra right, nationalist party, ala the American republicans, Poland’s PiS, or the ruling parties of Hungary and Italy. This is why braverman and badenoch were already making pronouncements during the election.
Of course, the other thing that would encourage a hard-right government (in five years) would be if a centerist liberal party got in on a mandate of “change” and made effectively no progress on the cost of living crisis while continuing to enact neoliberal policies.
posted by The River Ivel at 1:42 AM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Of course, the other thing that would encourage a hard-right government (in five years) would be if a centerist liberal party got in on a mandate of “change” and made effectively no progress on the cost of living crisis while continuing to enact neoliberal policies.
posted by The River Ivel at 1:42 AM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Polling station was about as busy as normal. No queue, a couple of other people around. Nice sunny day here.
I'm guessing that Labour will win comfortably but the Tories will do better than the lowest expectations, with 150 to 200 seats.
Optimistic dream: the Lib Dems end up as the official opposition, as according to a small fraction of the polls.
Nightmare scenario: Reform end up as the official opposition. They're only a few points behind the Tories by most polls. If there's a significant number of "Shy Reformites", they could edge ahead, and under FPTP just a couple of points could give them a much larger number of seats.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:08 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I'm guessing that Labour will win comfortably but the Tories will do better than the lowest expectations, with 150 to 200 seats.
Optimistic dream: the Lib Dems end up as the official opposition, as according to a small fraction of the polls.
Nightmare scenario: Reform end up as the official opposition. They're only a few points behind the Tories by most polls. If there's a significant number of "Shy Reformites", they could edge ahead, and under FPTP just a couple of points could give them a much larger number of seats.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:08 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
This morning has been beautifully sunny (if slightly cool) and I voted before work. Current YouGov poll has West Suffolk to remain Conservative but the result will be close ("tossup" is the term they are using).
This is the first election where I have had to provide photo id. I did notice that of the five officials at the polling station, the four middle aged white men were inside while the pretty young woman was at the door asking people if they had id (she didn't check the id, just asked if people had it).
posted by antiwiggle at 2:13 AM on July 4
This is the first election where I have had to provide photo id. I did notice that of the five officials at the polling station, the four middle aged white men were inside while the pretty young woman was at the door asking people if they had id (she didn't check the id, just asked if people had it).
posted by antiwiggle at 2:13 AM on July 4
Rishi Sunak fearful of losing his seat, sources say. PM would become first sitting British leader to be voted out of his constituency if his fears are realised.
C'mon, Richmond and Northallerton, you can do it.
posted by rory at 2:15 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
C'mon, Richmond and Northallerton, you can do it.
posted by rory at 2:15 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Haven't yet voted. I'm at Druid camp this morning. It's like Library camp, but with mead (not for me: way too early), prosecco (brought by the hen night Druids), a bit of chanting and ritual, and "tea". Like Library camp, there is cake. A lot of cake, apparently (it's stacked up in the yurt).
Reading the Code of Conduct. Amongst other things, election talk is banned inside the Circle. Thank fuck for that.
(I will vote, afterwards, and may take the cat with me)
posted by Wordshore at 2:15 AM on July 4 [26 favorites]
Reading the Code of Conduct. Amongst other things, election talk is banned inside the Circle. Thank fuck for that.
(I will vote, afterwards, and may take the cat with me)
posted by Wordshore at 2:15 AM on July 4 [26 favorites]
It seems like a broadly nice day across most of the UK, which is probably good for turnout. A lot of my friends have already voted; I voted postally last week, as I knew I was going to be away from my home constituency of West Worcestershire. Instead I'm currently in Woking, which has only ever returned Conservative MPs since the constituency was created in 1950 but which is predicted to go Lib Dem.
As for West Worcestershire it is a seat that has existed in two incarnations, from 1832 to 1885 and then from 1997 onwards (its territory being split between other constituencies in the interval). Both versions have always returned Conservative MPs; predictions for 2024 are that the Tories will retain it, although it could be close-run. Last week tactical voting sites were pretty unanimously saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for this constituency but today they seem mostly to be advising a vote for Labour. If the Tories do lose West Worcestershire then it will be a very bad night for them indeed.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:18 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
As for West Worcestershire it is a seat that has existed in two incarnations, from 1832 to 1885 and then from 1997 onwards (its territory being split between other constituencies in the interval). Both versions have always returned Conservative MPs; predictions for 2024 are that the Tories will retain it, although it could be close-run. Last week tactical voting sites were pretty unanimously saying ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ for this constituency but today they seem mostly to be advising a vote for Labour. If the Tories do lose West Worcestershire then it will be a very bad night for them indeed.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:18 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I went to my local food bank on my way to work this morning to vote. The Tories made sure there were loads of them so everyone can do that, right? I don't have a dog, so had to contribute to #BikesAtPollingStations rather than #DogsAtPollingStations.
One thing I spotted on Mastodon:
posted by amcewen at 2:32 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
One thing I spotted on Mastodon:
If you know anyone who is planning on not voting because ‘it won’t make a difference’, explain to them how public funds are allocated to opposition parties (so-called Short money). £38.75 for every 200 votes gained by the party. Every vote counts!https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_Money
posted by amcewen at 2:32 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Personally, I'm hoping for around 8 Portillo moments tonight.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:45 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 2:45 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
MetaFilter: it's stacked up in the yurt
posted by chavenet at 2:51 AM on July 4 [12 favorites]
posted by chavenet at 2:51 AM on July 4 [12 favorites]
My local polling station was no busier than usual. I always carry my driving licence, but took along my burgundy-covered passport as ID just to stick two silent fingers up to the Tories and their blatant attempts at voter suppression on the flimsiest of pretexts. Yes, many other countries have long required ID at the polls, but not requiring it was one of the things I always liked about Britain. The polling officials would look your name up on the rolls and that was it—it was cosy and welcoming, like having your name on the door at a gig. If anyone tried to vote twice it was bound to come out later and bite them, so very, very few ever did.
So, Fuck You, Tories, volume XCVII.
posted by rory at 2:52 AM on July 4 [17 favorites]
So, Fuck You, Tories, volume XCVII.
posted by rory at 2:52 AM on July 4 [17 favorites]
Our boundaries were recently redrawn, which is a bit of a shame... I don't get to be part of kicking out our previous Conservative who was up to their neck in expenses and the worst of everything since. The new constituency looks like it's going to have a harder time removing the incumbent Tory (ex-member of the Truss cabinet... how's that for CV points?), but the LibDem folks stand a chance.
Today's soundtrack - Grace Petrie's Build Something Better [Spotify].
posted by PeteTheHair at 3:01 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Today's soundtrack - Grace Petrie's Build Something Better [Spotify].
posted by PeteTheHair at 3:01 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Someone has brought a tambourine. I hope I don't have to remind them that Kumbaya is banned.
posted by Wordshore at 3:20 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 3:20 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
I'm at Druid camp this morning.
Wordshore, you are a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
posted by biffa at 3:53 AM on July 4 [10 favorites]
Wordshore, you are a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
posted by biffa at 3:53 AM on July 4 [10 favorites]
So what will be the most Tory thing Laura Keunssberg does today?
posted by biffa at 3:55 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 3:55 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
The River Ivel: One theory I’ve heard is that the Tory party will take a kicking tonight, and absorb Farage’s current party
That's basically what happened in Canada after the Tories historic 1993 loss (from a majority government down to 2 seats), though it took ten years rather than five. One thing I wonder about that scenario from a distance: Could the upper class public school boys who run the UK Tories bring themselves to be bossed around by the angry plebs who run the other right-wing parties?
posted by clawsoon at 3:57 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
That's basically what happened in Canada after the Tories historic 1993 loss (from a majority government down to 2 seats), though it took ten years rather than five. One thing I wonder about that scenario from a distance: Could the upper class public school boys who run the UK Tories bring themselves to be bossed around by the angry plebs who run the other right-wing parties?
posted by clawsoon at 3:57 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Happy vote the tories out day!
posted by ellieBOA at 3:59 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by ellieBOA at 3:59 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Could the upper class public school boys who run the UK Tories bring themselves to be bossed around by the angry plebs who run the other right-wing parties?
The people who run the other right-wing parties are just as much upper class public school boys as the Conservatives, they just pretend not to be and have been remarkably successful at pulling off the lie to a certain segment of the electorate. Just look up Farage’s background.
posted by penguin pie at 4:11 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
The people who run the other right-wing parties are just as much upper class public school boys as the Conservatives, they just pretend not to be and have been remarkably successful at pulling off the lie to a certain segment of the electorate. Just look up Farage’s background.
posted by penguin pie at 4:11 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
This page will play the Wilhelm Scream every time the Tories lose a seat.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:11 AM on July 4 [25 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 4:11 AM on July 4 [25 favorites]
Mrs. Example and I are dual US/UK citizens who got our UK passports just under three years ago, so this is the first general election we'll be voting in. We could have done it the postal way, but we want to march into our polling place and vote the Tories out in person.
It's also Independence Day, so I'm spending part of today posting ironically-patriotic "'MERICA!!!" GIFs in work chat and on Facebook. (My coworkers are very patiently putting up with me.)
On top of that, it's my department's annual barbecue event today where we all knock off work around 3 PM and have some drinks and food and maybe a small pub crawl afterward.
Finally, since I had some leave to use up, today kicks off six days away from work. I won't be back in the office until Wednesday.
It's a pretty good day all around, really.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 4:20 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
It's also Independence Day, so I'm spending part of today posting ironically-patriotic "'MERICA!!!" GIFs in work chat and on Facebook. (My coworkers are very patiently putting up with me.)
On top of that, it's my department's annual barbecue event today where we all knock off work around 3 PM and have some drinks and food and maybe a small pub crawl afterward.
Finally, since I had some leave to use up, today kicks off six days away from work. I won't be back in the office until Wednesday.
It's a pretty good day all around, really.
posted by Mr. Bad Example at 4:20 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
Kumbaya is banned, my friend, kumbaya
I'm going out to vote confident we won't have a Tory here, and happy with the Lib Dem who will win, so I'll definitely be voting for the party I belong to, Green, especially as the local candidate is in favour of building green infrastructure. I was merely sad that I couldn't go down to Bristol Central and join in the campaigning for what feels very likely to be a win for Carla Denyer.
I'll never forget going round to my brother, who lives in what was North East Somerset at the time after the 2010 election and my sister in law absolutely yelling about “some idiots who voted Lib Dem and let [Jacob Rees-Mogg] win”, gesturing at my brother, relatively good naturedly. The boundaries have moved, so they're not even going to get the chance to vote him out, and my brother's going to be in a different polling station as Presiding Officer all day, anyway.
But yes, the end of Rees-Mogg will be great.
I'd like a lot more from Starmer, but a reversal of the baseline malcompetence that the Tories have put everywhere will make the country a whole lot nicer, and maybe we can work from there. But the more Lib Dem and Green opposition, the more chance of a country which wants to be an effective, prosperous country for all.
posted by ambrosen at 4:20 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
I'm going out to vote confident we won't have a Tory here, and happy with the Lib Dem who will win, so I'll definitely be voting for the party I belong to, Green, especially as the local candidate is in favour of building green infrastructure. I was merely sad that I couldn't go down to Bristol Central and join in the campaigning for what feels very likely to be a win for Carla Denyer.
I'll never forget going round to my brother, who lives in what was North East Somerset at the time after the 2010 election and my sister in law absolutely yelling about “some idiots who voted Lib Dem and let [Jacob Rees-Mogg] win”, gesturing at my brother, relatively good naturedly. The boundaries have moved, so they're not even going to get the chance to vote him out, and my brother's going to be in a different polling station as Presiding Officer all day, anyway.
But yes, the end of Rees-Mogg will be great.
I'd like a lot more from Starmer, but a reversal of the baseline malcompetence that the Tories have put everywhere will make the country a whole lot nicer, and maybe we can work from there. But the more Lib Dem and Green opposition, the more chance of a country which wants to be an effective, prosperous country for all.
posted by ambrosen at 4:20 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
This song popped up on my playlist the other day.
Although it's not Saturday and it's not Chicago, it is the 4th of July, and the song seems to reflect the mood of the country....
posted by Kiwi at 4:27 AM on July 4
Although it's not Saturday and it's not Chicago, it is the 4th of July, and the song seems to reflect the mood of the country....
posted by Kiwi at 4:27 AM on July 4
So what will be the most Tory thing Laura Keunssberg does today?
She's doing BBC election night coverage jointly with Clive Myrie, so I'm really hoping she gets to announce the exit polls declaring a landslide hammering for the tories at 10pm, ideally while looking like she's sucking on a particularly sour lemon. It's the little victories.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:38 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
She's doing BBC election night coverage jointly with Clive Myrie, so I'm really hoping she gets to announce the exit polls declaring a landslide hammering for the tories at 10pm, ideally while looking like she's sucking on a particularly sour lemon. It's the little victories.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 4:38 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
My brother-in-law is a Tory MP, elected in 2019, from a political dynasty and generally a sound man with a good head on his shoulders, actual business-running experience in the real world, and who cares about the issues his constituents care about. He's defending a majority of around 20,000 and the indications are that he'll probably lose it. And while he's mostly a good example of the sort of person one would want in Parliament, he has chosen to ally himself with extremists, chancers and incompetents, and has never once rebelled against the party whip, even when voting for the most egregiously inhumane pieces of legislation.
I don't want him to lose his seat, but he's made his bed. If he loses I'll feel sorry for my sister and his kids, but not for him.
posted by Hogshead at 4:46 AM on July 4 [21 favorites]
I don't want him to lose his seat, but he's made his bed. If he loses I'll feel sorry for my sister and his kids, but not for him.
posted by Hogshead at 4:46 AM on July 4 [21 favorites]
For some reason Count Binface has been showing up in my mentions apparently, if you believe, croissants will appear overnight
posted by mbo at 4:49 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by mbo at 4:49 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
A reminder that Count Binface should not be confused (explanation) with Lord Buckethead, for legal reasons.
posted by Wordshore at 5:00 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 5:00 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Seen attached to trees in marginal constituencies
posted by lalochezia at 5:07 AM on July 4 [10 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 5:07 AM on July 4 [10 favorites]
I've said it before and I'll say it again: the UK would do well to adopt the Australian mode of a polling station sausage sizzle/"Democracy sausage".
posted by fight or flight at 5:21 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 5:21 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
> the UK would do well to adopt the Australian mode of a polling station sausage sizzle/"Democracy sausage".
Australia does have the advantage of having the kind of weather and BBQ culture where this would work, though.
In the UK you'd queue for an hour in the rain to get handed a cremated tube of something in a soggy bun that gave you food poisoning for a week.
posted by parm at 5:27 AM on July 4 [18 favorites]
Australia does have the advantage of having the kind of weather and BBQ culture where this would work, though.
In the UK you'd queue for an hour in the rain to get handed a cremated tube of something in a soggy bun that gave you food poisoning for a week.
posted by parm at 5:27 AM on July 4 [18 favorites]
Kind of emulates the entire voting process, tbf.
posted by fight or flight at 5:31 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 5:31 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
A reminder that Count Binface should not be confused (explanation) with Lord Buckethead, for legal reasons.
Watching Lord Buckethead (the original UK one) standing on stage next to John Major on election night in 1992 was a memorable moment of my year in England as a student—made even funnier by the presence of Screaming Lord Sutch of the Monster Raving Loony Party and the completely normal-looking guy from the Forward to Mars Party.
posted by rory at 5:37 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Watching Lord Buckethead (the original UK one) standing on stage next to John Major on election night in 1992 was a memorable moment of my year in England as a student—made even funnier by the presence of Screaming Lord Sutch of the Monster Raving Loony Party and the completely normal-looking guy from the Forward to Mars Party.
posted by rory at 5:37 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Obligatory link to the Blackadder election results bit.
Ivor Biggun: We're for the compulsory serving of asparagus at breakfast, free corsets for the under-5s and the abolition of slavery.posted by fight or flight at 5:51 AM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Vincent Hanna, His Own Great Great Great Grandfather: I'm sure many moderate people would respect your stand on asparagus, but what about all this extremist nonsense about abolishing slavery?
Ivor Biggun: Oh, that! We just put that in for a joke! See you next year!
Working the polls in a previously safe Con seat on the SE London/Kent borders, and hoping for a better outcome despite the whiteness, wealth, and general obliviousness to the world beyond hating ULEZ. The rule around here seems to be that maroon or red slacks plus car moccasins equals Tory, and there have been plenty of those in today.
I have seen the same grumpy schnauzer I met here in May, plus several interchangeable little fluffy dogs called Teddy or Bonny or Max and a lovely patient greyhound called Stan.
posted by vickyverky at 6:01 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
I have seen the same grumpy schnauzer I met here in May, plus several interchangeable little fluffy dogs called Teddy or Bonny or Max and a lovely patient greyhound called Stan.
posted by vickyverky at 6:01 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
I await any new additions to the "Rishi Sunak looking like just the most pathetic human you've ever seen" photograph portfolio.
My SIL is a dual UK/Canada citizen and her brother sent her the gif of Leslie Nielsen in Airplane! this morning on their Whatsapp chat. I hope for a better future for you all. I really do!
posted by Kitteh at 6:08 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
My SIL is a dual UK/Canada citizen and her brother sent her the gif of Leslie Nielsen in Airplane! this morning on their Whatsapp chat. I hope for a better future for you all. I really do!
posted by Kitteh at 6:08 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
I’m not a resident of the UK, and have spent probably less than a month total inside the country, so really I shouldn’t have much in the way of opinions on the politics there. However, my sister lives there, and used to work for the Scottish National Party, so I’ve got some emotional connections to British party politics.
Personally, I’m hoping for a clear progressive majority. My main worry is that people who’ve been considering voting Remain will tactically back the Conservatives. One feature of British politics that’s pretty unique in Europe has been the continued dominance of two large parties on each side of the center. The obvious reason for that is the single-round first-past-the-post system, which means that voters are under pressure to vote for the party that’s likeliest to win in their constituency, out of the ones that they can stomach voting for.
So my main worry is that people who are considering voting Remain will switch at the last minute to the Conservative Party. That wouldn’t worry me unduly, except that Labour is only polling at about 40%, so there’s less headroom than would be ideal, if potential Reform voters flock back to the Tories.
All that said, I still expect Labour to win by more than ten points, a little less than the 13% win that they got in ‘97, but not a lot less. Not only because of the polls, but also because the Conservatives have been so terrible at the art of politics lately, that if it’s much less than 10%, then nothing matter and we live in a world without cause and effect, free of consequences.
posted by Kattullus at 6:19 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Personally, I’m hoping for a clear progressive majority. My main worry is that people who’ve been considering voting Remain will tactically back the Conservatives. One feature of British politics that’s pretty unique in Europe has been the continued dominance of two large parties on each side of the center. The obvious reason for that is the single-round first-past-the-post system, which means that voters are under pressure to vote for the party that’s likeliest to win in their constituency, out of the ones that they can stomach voting for.
So my main worry is that people who are considering voting Remain will switch at the last minute to the Conservative Party. That wouldn’t worry me unduly, except that Labour is only polling at about 40%, so there’s less headroom than would be ideal, if potential Reform voters flock back to the Tories.
All that said, I still expect Labour to win by more than ten points, a little less than the 13% win that they got in ‘97, but not a lot less. Not only because of the polls, but also because the Conservatives have been so terrible at the art of politics lately, that if it’s much less than 10%, then nothing matter and we live in a world without cause and effect, free of consequences.
posted by Kattullus at 6:19 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
My thoughtful guidance to the limeys of Metafilter on this day:
Lay waste to the right wing parties.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:22 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Lay waste to the right wing parties.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 6:22 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Kattulus, I assume by “Remain” you mean “Reform”. “Remain” is the term generally used to describe people who voted to stay in the EU in the 2016 referendum. “Reform” is the hard-right political party led by Nigel Farage who are threatening to take many Conservative votes in this election.
posted by parm at 6:23 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by parm at 6:23 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
I'm not in the UK but I am sad that something that should be a happy occasion like the opportunity to get rid of Tories is tainted by, among other things, Keir Starmer's stance on trans issues and his recent comments about how he believes trans women don't have the right to use women's bathrooms. My heart breaks for my trans siblings who are in the UK when the primary alternative to the Tories is still creating an incredibly hostile and dangerous environment for them.
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:25 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
posted by an octopus IRL at 6:25 AM on July 4 [13 favorites]
Notes about Starmer:
• He's a TERF. He's said "trans women don't have a right to use female-only spaces" (actual quote) and is eager to meet with JK Rowling as the PM.
• He's very pro business, promises to be tough on unions.
• Has nothing to say about the ongoing genocide against Palestinians.
• Will work with Le Pen on the migrant crisis.
• He's Not A Tory (sound familiar, American Democrats?)
A Starmer presidency will momentarily slow the descent to fascism, but make no mistake: the Labor leadership has been swinging right ever since Corbyn lost. They are pushing right wing policies exactly when the Tories are at their weakest, exactly when they should be boldly moving left. In a few years, the fascists will point at immigrants and say it's our fault everything's fucked and Labor will have nothing to run on aside from "we're not the Tories."
posted by ftrtts at 6:26 AM on July 4 [23 favorites]
• He's a TERF. He's said "trans women don't have a right to use female-only spaces" (actual quote) and is eager to meet with JK Rowling as the PM.
• He's very pro business, promises to be tough on unions.
• Has nothing to say about the ongoing genocide against Palestinians.
• Will work with Le Pen on the migrant crisis.
• He's Not A Tory (sound familiar, American Democrats?)
A Starmer presidency will momentarily slow the descent to fascism, but make no mistake: the Labor leadership has been swinging right ever since Corbyn lost. They are pushing right wing policies exactly when the Tories are at their weakest, exactly when they should be boldly moving left. In a few years, the fascists will point at immigrants and say it's our fault everything's fucked and Labor will have nothing to run on aside from "we're not the Tories."
posted by ftrtts at 6:26 AM on July 4 [23 favorites]
All of the above is true. And yet it's still the lesser evil, at least to this trans immigrant.
posted by Dysk at 6:29 AM on July 4 [25 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 6:29 AM on July 4 [25 favorites]
Katullus, with the way things have been going I think there's more chance that voters switching from Conservative to Reform will pass a tipping point and Farage's party ends up with seats in the double figures. But there isn't going to be 100% movement from either party's voters to the other, and even both of their viotes combined would fall short. They're both going to come out badly.
The vote on the right has been split, after a few elections in which they did deals and kept a lid on it for the sake of Brexit. Way back in 2015 I had hoped that UKIP's showing in the EU elections would mean that they'd split the vote in the next General Election, but they did a deal and it didn't happen. This time, there's no deal, and it's going to sink them.
(Pauses for a moment as a Remainer—a proper one—to enjoy the irony: the Tories and the former Brexit Party, both sunk by no deal.)
posted by rory at 6:30 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
The vote on the right has been split, after a few elections in which they did deals and kept a lid on it for the sake of Brexit. Way back in 2015 I had hoped that UKIP's showing in the EU elections would mean that they'd split the vote in the next General Election, but they did a deal and it didn't happen. This time, there's no deal, and it's going to sink them.
(Pauses for a moment as a Remainer—a proper one—to enjoy the irony: the Tories and the former Brexit Party, both sunk by no deal.)
posted by rory at 6:30 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Hands up expat voters who got their postal vote yesterday 👋
I mean, I expected to get it with not quite enough time to return it, but this is a fucking joke.
EXACTLY THE SAME FOR ME, got it at 3pm yesterday, in NYC, on July 3 having had my online application approved on June 3. Cant' vote online, can't change to a proxy, must mail it back.
There is no extra time for postal voting, polls close 10pm today, so completely disenfranchised. Cunts!
posted by lalochezia at 6:30 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
parm: Kattulus, I assume by “Remain” you mean “Reform”.
Ah! Yes, that’s an embarrassing error. I started to write a comment about Starmer and remain voters, and decided that was getting over the line of what I consider to be okay to tell people about their own country’s politics, but the term clearly got stuck in my head.
posted by Kattullus at 6:32 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Ah! Yes, that’s an embarrassing error. I started to write a comment about Starmer and remain voters, and decided that was getting over the line of what I consider to be okay to tell people about their own country’s politics, but the term clearly got stuck in my head.
posted by Kattullus at 6:32 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
I'm also happy that the tories look like getting. shellacked. Every silver lining has a big fuck off cloud tho;'.
For those of you excited by a labour landslide, read this quoted comment, and my comment from an earlier thread.
posted by lalochezia at 6:33 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
For those of you excited by a labour landslide, read this quoted comment, and my comment from an earlier thread.
posted by lalochezia at 6:33 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
It's election week a-go-go for me having voted in the first round of the French elections on Sunday, postal vote done for the UK for today and the second round in France Sunday coming. I'm making a very conscious effort to enjoy today as much as possible before sinking back into gritted-teeth mode.
posted by protorp at 6:34 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by protorp at 6:34 AM on July 4 [7 favorites]
I just wanted to say good luck, we're all counting on you.
posted by biogeo at 6:41 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by biogeo at 6:41 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
lalochezia, I'm not sure that happened in 1997 - Labour weren't expecting such a big victory, but there weren't huge scandals about many of its MPs subsequently, that I recall. And their candidate vetting is a hell of a lot better than, say, Reform's, or indeed the Tories'.
Sunny and windy here. Voted first thing, it wasn't busy but hoping it picks up later. I have snacks and am prepared to stay up but will probably retire after the exit poll.
posted by altolinguistic at 6:41 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Sunny and windy here. Voted first thing, it wasn't busy but hoping it picks up later. I have snacks and am prepared to stay up but will probably retire after the exit poll.
posted by altolinguistic at 6:41 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
It's important to note for people living outside the UK—even UK citizens or former residents—just how pissed off everyone here has become with the Tories over the last few years in particular. The lockdown party revelations and the Liz Truss debacle and Rishi Sunak trying to convince us that things are on the up because inflation is down again aren't just an intellectual exercise or an entertaining diversion: we feel it every time we go to the supermarket. We see the graffiti and potholes everywhere, and the people sleeping rough, and the foodbanks that barely existed before 2010. We can see that public services we once used are gone, and that the levels of service in the ones that remain aren't what they were. Progressive politicians no longer need to convince voters that things are bad, which was the challenge in 2015 before the effects of austerity had been fully felt; or that things won't get better under the Tories, which was the challenge in 2017 and 2019 when half the country were kidding themselves that Brexit would make everything golden. The blinkers are off.
posted by rory at 6:47 AM on July 4 [31 favorites]
posted by rory at 6:47 AM on July 4 [31 favorites]
Careful, rory, you'll get the Americans in here taking over with their own election chat!
posted by Kitteh at 7:03 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 7:03 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Yes, as rory said - voters are now convinced something has gone wrong, and it’s the tories fault. However, it will be interesting to see if that means more voters for labour, or merely less voters for the conservatives (from people staying at home, etc).
posted by The River Ivel at 7:10 AM on July 4
posted by The River Ivel at 7:10 AM on July 4
It's a bright sunny day, and the Tories are fucked. :)
Voted Green in Tottenham. (Safe Labour seat.)
posted by swr at 7:25 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Voted Green in Tottenham. (Safe Labour seat.)
posted by swr at 7:25 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
To echo rory, multifactorial descent into 2nd world status; Brexit as primary accelerant but not the only cause.
my friends in the UK say “this place has an air of terminal decline”
Salaries in the UK for are shit and have been shit for a long time; taxes were middling for europe, the cost of living has also was also middle ish (but recently the cost of living has accelerated a lot and wages are stagnant)
However, it used to feel better and objectively be better, because used to be offset by the
-robust welfare system (cradle to grave in case stuff went bad)
-good public transport (no need for a car)
-reasonable housing market (outside of london)
-the world leading free-at-point-of-service NHS (not having to pay anywhere from $200-$2000+/month for health insurance like in the US)
-easy access to europe
ALL OF those things have been COMPLETELY hollowed out by neoliberalism. every one of those things has been stripped and sold for parts, then rented/sold back to the owners (the public) at punitive prices….all of these things been made britain a shadow of its former self in the last 15 years.
for actual living people, the hollowing out of the welfare state is the worst thing. even if you are middle class+ and working. if you’re not? triple fucked.
this graph is an indictment all by itself
https://www.statista.com/statistics/382695/uk-foodbank-users/
(and before you say it, immigration has a negligible effect on these numbers)
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
posted by lalochezia at 7:26 AM on July 4 [17 favorites]
my friends in the UK say “this place has an air of terminal decline”
Salaries in the UK for are shit and have been shit for a long time; taxes were middling for europe, the cost of living has also was also middle ish (but recently the cost of living has accelerated a lot and wages are stagnant)
However, it used to feel better and objectively be better, because used to be offset by the
-robust welfare system (cradle to grave in case stuff went bad)
-good public transport (no need for a car)
-reasonable housing market (outside of london)
-the world leading free-at-point-of-service NHS (not having to pay anywhere from $200-$2000+/month for health insurance like in the US)
-easy access to europe
ALL OF those things have been COMPLETELY hollowed out by neoliberalism. every one of those things has been stripped and sold for parts, then rented/sold back to the owners (the public) at punitive prices….all of these things been made britain a shadow of its former self in the last 15 years.
for actual living people, the hollowing out of the welfare state is the worst thing. even if you are middle class+ and working. if you’re not? triple fucked.
this graph is an indictment all by itself
https://www.statista.com/statistics/382695/uk-foodbank-users/
(and before you say it, immigration has a negligible effect on these numbers)
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/
posted by lalochezia at 7:26 AM on July 4 [17 favorites]
On trans (full disclosure: I'm cis, but care about my trans friends) - I've been worried in recent days by Starmer's rhetoric, which isn't consistent with his previous reasonable (IMO) stance that trans people should be treated as their stated gender, or with his public support for Brianna Ghey's mother in the face of Sunak's jokes. But when I ask which of Starmer and Sunak has more (or any) respect for trans identities, I think the answer is pretty clear.
posted by altolinguistic at 7:40 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by altolinguistic at 7:40 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Thanks for the splain, lalochezia.
Like people said, we know that.
posted by ambrosen at 7:55 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Like people said, we know that.
posted by ambrosen at 7:55 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Another UK trans person who held their nose and voted Labour today.
posted by terretu at 7:56 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by terretu at 7:56 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Get your Tory Bingo Cards ready for later / tomorrow!
posted by BigCalm at 8:02 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by BigCalm at 8:02 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Polling here in N. Ireland was pretty quick according to my wife this morning, she didn't mention seeing any dogs at the poll either.
I'm not holding my breath for Alliance to take the Lagan valley seat, but the once solid DUP vote appears to have been scattered (this was Jeffrey Donaldsons seat) and their signs are mostly pleading folks to not split the unionist vote.
Maybe SDLP picks up a few more seats from SF, so we have more than three none DUP people present in Westminster.
Ironically the letter approving my Irish citizenship arrived earlier this week, so while I already knew I wasn't going to be able to vote in this election, the fact that it came anywhere close to possible stings a little.
posted by mrzarquon at 8:14 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I'm not holding my breath for Alliance to take the Lagan valley seat, but the once solid DUP vote appears to have been scattered (this was Jeffrey Donaldsons seat) and their signs are mostly pleading folks to not split the unionist vote.
Maybe SDLP picks up a few more seats from SF, so we have more than three none DUP people present in Westminster.
Ironically the letter approving my Irish citizenship arrived earlier this week, so while I already knew I wasn't going to be able to vote in this election, the fact that it came anywhere close to possible stings a little.
posted by mrzarquon at 8:14 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Good luck! Thank you for the updates on polling place pets, and better luck next time to those of you who didn't see any.
posted by the primroses were over at 8:17 AM on July 4
posted by the primroses were over at 8:17 AM on July 4
On the issue of Kier Starmer's recent turn to the transphobic, Attitude magazine had received an open letter from him to publish which is explicitly supportive of dignity and healthcare access for trans people (I'm echoing his words: he didn't directly 100% say he supports trans people and trans rights).
But he's clearly taken a recent turn towards the transphobic under the pressure of whatever groups it is make UK politicians do bigoted things that the public don't support, and turn our politicians into unprincipled liars.
So Attitude have published his letter, but with a large disclaimer in front pointing out he hasn't actually stood by any of it.
posted by ambrosen at 8:22 AM on July 4 [19 favorites]
But he's clearly taken a recent turn towards the transphobic under the pressure of whatever groups it is make UK politicians do bigoted things that the public don't support, and turn our politicians into unprincipled liars.
So Attitude have published his letter, but with a large disclaimer in front pointing out he hasn't actually stood by any of it.
posted by ambrosen at 8:22 AM on July 4 [19 favorites]
Mark me down as another one who held their nose and (postal) voted for Labour.
Since I have zero insider information I can make an (unoffical) bet on the following results:
- We won't 't see a total tory wipe-out
- Labour will win
- Sunak will keep his seat
posted by Braeburn at 8:36 AM on July 4
Since I have zero insider information I can make an (unoffical) bet on the following results:
- We won't 't see a total tory wipe-out
- Labour will win
- Sunak will keep his seat
posted by Braeburn at 8:36 AM on July 4
I would have postal voted, but my local council sent postal votes out too late to reach me as I was going on holiday. Which was the reason I needed a postal vote. It's only two weeks! They must realise people might have two weeks off in the summer.
I also don't think we'll see the absolute massacre of Tory wankers that we all want. But probably Hunt, maybe Shappa, perhaps a handful of others.
Since we are on holiday (see above) in France there is a bottle of Cremant awaiting any kind of regime change indicated by the polls at 10pm-ish UK time.
posted by biffa at 8:49 AM on July 4
I also don't think we'll see the absolute massacre of Tory wankers that we all want. But probably Hunt, maybe Shappa, perhaps a handful of others.
Since we are on holiday (see above) in France there is a bottle of Cremant awaiting any kind of regime change indicated by the polls at 10pm-ish UK time.
posted by biffa at 8:49 AM on July 4
Careful, rory, you'll get the Americans in here taking over with their own election chat!
Not from me! I'm deliriously happy for the distraction.
And if I may add, as the UK is the single greatest cause of Independence Days around the world, we're happy to share ours with your Independence-from-Tories day. Now do the monarchy next!
Seriously though, good luck. We're cheering you on from the other side of the Atlantic.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:51 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Not from me! I'm deliriously happy for the distraction.
And if I may add, as the UK is the single greatest cause of Independence Days around the world, we're happy to share ours with your Independence-from-Tories day. Now do the monarchy next!
Seriously though, good luck. We're cheering you on from the other side of the Atlantic.
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 8:51 AM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Starmer wants to be in power so badly. I believe he weighed the potential negative press of getting into a spat with Queen Terf Rowling with the transphobic media behind her a few days prior to elections and decided to push trans people under the bus rather than risk it. He can do his apology tour as PM later or hope it'll just be forgotten by any people whose votes he cares about.
Most of my friends started holding their nose in preparation for voting (tactically) for Labour a while back and by now that nose-hold is a death grip.
Sad state of affairs really, I want to be excited for a Labour government but as I've said it here before: this election really is about how badly the Tories lose, not how much Labour wins.
posted by slimepuppy at 8:55 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Most of my friends started holding their nose in preparation for voting (tactically) for Labour a while back and by now that nose-hold is a death grip.
Sad state of affairs really, I want to be excited for a Labour government but as I've said it here before: this election really is about how badly the Tories lose, not how much Labour wins.
posted by slimepuppy at 8:55 AM on July 4 [8 favorites]
When it seems like the entire world is veering towards right wing extremism and fascism, it's good to see one country's fed up with that bullshit and is taking a left turn.
I'm very happy for you, Brits. Enjoy your election day!
posted by orange swan at 8:56 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
I'm very happy for you, Brits. Enjoy your election day!
posted by orange swan at 8:56 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Mod note: One comment deleted. Let's not bring the I/P conflict into this thread.
posted by loup (staff) at 9:00 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by loup (staff) at 9:00 AM on July 4 [9 favorites]
It seems like the entire world is veering towards right wing extremism and fascism, so it's good to see one country's fed up with that bullshit and is taking a left turn.
Ian Dunt posted some thoughtful observations about this the other day, when writing about the French first-round results:
It's funny. For a while we seemed to have gone mad all by ourselves. Brexit turned us into an international pariah, a laughing stock. Now everything is reversed. We seem suddenly sensible and composed....
Perhaps we are simply seeing a global wave of resentment against the status quo due to the economic chaos which followed covid and Ukraine. The reason that Britain therefore seems like a diamond in the rough is precisely because we fell to populism first. With a populist Conservative party in power, the anti-incumbent mood swung against them in Labour's favour. Elsewhere, with more moderate figures in power, the same happens in populism's favour. If so, none of these tactical considerations even make a difference. It’s all preordained by remorseless geopolitical dynamics.
posted by rory at 9:04 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Ian Dunt posted some thoughtful observations about this the other day, when writing about the French first-round results:
It's funny. For a while we seemed to have gone mad all by ourselves. Brexit turned us into an international pariah, a laughing stock. Now everything is reversed. We seem suddenly sensible and composed....
Perhaps we are simply seeing a global wave of resentment against the status quo due to the economic chaos which followed covid and Ukraine. The reason that Britain therefore seems like a diamond in the rough is precisely because we fell to populism first. With a populist Conservative party in power, the anti-incumbent mood swung against them in Labour's favour. Elsewhere, with more moderate figures in power, the same happens in populism's favour. If so, none of these tactical considerations even make a difference. It’s all preordained by remorseless geopolitical dynamics.
posted by rory at 9:04 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Good luck y'all across the pond. Do what you need to do
posted by JoeXIII007 at 9:29 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by JoeXIII007 at 9:29 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Turns out many of the Druids at Druid camp earlier did want to discuss the election at some point today {sigh}. A poll was held, and of the 18 who said who they were going to vote for, the breakdown was:
13 - Green
3 - Liberal Democrat
1 - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
1 - Labour
That's pretty much what I'd expect.
Might email Jon Snow and ask him to replicate that, as a national vote, into seats...
posted by Wordshore at 9:43 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
13 - Green
3 - Liberal Democrat
1 - Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
1 - Labour
That's pretty much what I'd expect.
Might email Jon Snow and ask him to replicate that, as a national vote, into seats...
posted by Wordshore at 9:43 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Keep track with the Portillogeddon Wipeout Bingo!
posted by mrzarquon at 10:16 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by mrzarquon at 10:16 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Regarding Portillo, I, er... made A Thing.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:28 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 10:28 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
America is looking to you all with a measure of hope. Conservatives here are playing with not just the extinction of America, but what could be the extinction of the Republican party.
I don't think the Conservative party is going extinct in Britain, but at least it will be buried at a depth that makes it difficult for zombies to claw their way out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:43 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
I don't think the Conservative party is going extinct in Britain, but at least it will be buried at a depth that makes it difficult for zombies to claw their way out.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 10:43 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Voted early, lovely sunny morning.
The complete certainty that everyone seems to have, that Labour will definitely win by a country mile, makes me extremely uneasy.
We've seen that kind of complacency before and ... it did not go well.
Crossing everything I have that we don't wake up tomorrow to complete crogglement. Again.
posted by Ilira at 10:44 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
The complete certainty that everyone seems to have, that Labour will definitely win by a country mile, makes me extremely uneasy.
We've seen that kind of complacency before and ... it did not go well.
Crossing everything I have that we don't wake up tomorrow to complete crogglement. Again.
posted by Ilira at 10:44 AM on July 4 [4 favorites]
→
Not if my sister and her family in Richmond and Northallerton can help it
I was technically eligible to reapply for a postal vote (I think), but as I've been away for 20+ years and am fairly politically active in Canada, it didn't seem right somehow. Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch is expected to go Labour from SNP, which I'm a little sad about. I'm more concerned that Reform would pick up any votes at all, but bigots are always silently amongst us
posted by scruss at 11:16 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
- Sunak will keep his seat
Not if my sister and her family in Richmond and Northallerton can help it
I was technically eligible to reapply for a postal vote (I think), but as I've been away for 20+ years and am fairly politically active in Canada, it didn't seem right somehow. Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch is expected to go Labour from SNP, which I'm a little sad about. I'm more concerned that Reform would pick up any votes at all, but bigots are always silently amongst us
posted by scruss at 11:16 AM on July 4 [5 favorites]
We've seen that kind of complacency before and ... it did not go well.
Electoral Calculus has a Labour win at 100%, and a Labour majority at 93%.
If you're worried about how the Brexit referendum went and the "How did the polls get it so wrong?" narrative, I can tell you that that narrative is false. I was following the polls and it was clear, from the polls, that it could go either way.
posted by swr at 11:22 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Electoral Calculus has a Labour win at 100%, and a Labour majority at 93%.
If you're worried about how the Brexit referendum went and the "How did the polls get it so wrong?" narrative, I can tell you that that narrative is false. I was following the polls and it was clear, from the polls, that it could go either way.
posted by swr at 11:22 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
... and to show you how out of the UK electoral scene I am, I didn't even know that my old constituency had gone away. I would now be voting in Mid Dunbartonshire, in the gloriously named Kirkintilloch East and North and Twechar ward.
I miss Twechar. And I might be one of the first people in history to say that.
posted by scruss at 11:24 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I miss Twechar. And I might be one of the first people in history to say that.
posted by scruss at 11:24 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I’m so excited to have your election to watch on this, the worst of US holidays (it’s just a holiday for assholes, and I usually spend it cringing indoors). Now I get to spend it indoors refreshing this thread and —dear Lord, hear our prayers—watching the fucking Tories get shellacked.
Go go go, you all!
posted by kitten kaboodle at 11:38 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Go go go, you all!
posted by kitten kaboodle at 11:38 AM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Look after your pets Americans!
posted by biffa at 11:57 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by biffa at 11:57 AM on July 4 [3 favorites]
From across the pond I can’t help but wonder if the Conservatives cared that much about the prospect of losing this election, even badly, because they’d already achieved the lion’s share of their (shitty) objectives?
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:58 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 11:58 AM on July 4 [2 favorites]
If you're getting bored waiting for Torymageddon, the Guardian* cryptic crossword today is something of a topical tour-de-force, if you like that sort of thing. Pretty much every clue references the election or something closely related. Although I should say Paul is a challenging setter, and some of the references may be a bit tricky for non-Brits. 25ac, 4dn and 21dn made me giggle when I got them. Solution and explainations for the baffled here.
* I know, I know, in my defence I only really get it for the crossword now.
posted by tomsk at 12:02 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
* I know, I know, in my defence I only really get it for the crossword now.
posted by tomsk at 12:02 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I voted at lunchtime, putting down my cross for Labour in a constituency that had a 22,000 Tory majority at the last election. Labour is likely to make a dent in that, but the Tories will still hold it.
I'm going to try to stay up late tonight to see the first results come in, and hope to wake to very good news tomorrow morning.
posted by essexjan at 12:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I'm going to try to stay up late tonight to see the first results come in, and hope to wake to very good news tomorrow morning.
posted by essexjan at 12:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Aren't we like 90 minutes from the polls closing? Here's hoping UK. Drive those horrible fuckers out.
posted by Windopaene at 12:40 PM on July 4
posted by Windopaene at 12:40 PM on July 4
Polls close at 10pm UK time (5pm EST).
posted by Pallas Athena at 12:43 PM on July 4
posted by Pallas Athena at 12:43 PM on July 4
Eurostar passenger carries stranger’s postal ballot from Paris to London [Guardian / Archive]
posted by ellieBOA at 12:46 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by ellieBOA at 12:46 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
If you do get a reasonable government maybe the United States could go back and merge with you. I mean, 248 years has been long enough apart. We tried giving it a go.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:58 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 12:58 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Well, we’d actually been seeing other people but that hasn’t worked out, so…
posted by Phanx at 1:19 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by Phanx at 1:19 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
Although I'm happy to believe the overall popular vote predictions, I suspect that translating those figures into seat counts or individual seat gains/losses is pure haruspication. OTOH I'm not committed enough to that position, that I'd agree to a 'shot per Portillo moment' drinking game.
dances_with_sneetches, we would absolutely kill the fatted calf (vegetarian & vegan options are available) on your return, and even if you chaps decide to stay separate after all -- no hard feelings. In fact, if you ever want the White House singed again, we're happy to oblige as a gesture of friendship.
posted by BCMagee at 1:28 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
dances_with_sneetches, we would absolutely kill the fatted calf (vegetarian & vegan options are available) on your return, and even if you chaps decide to stay separate after all -- no hard feelings. In fact, if you ever want the White House singed again, we're happy to oblige as a gesture of friendship.
posted by BCMagee at 1:28 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
What I find particularly infuriating about my postal vote not getting to me in time is they posted me a physical card acknowledging they had registered me for a postal vote a good ten days before sending the postal vote.
posted by biffa at 1:30 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 1:30 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
All of the above is true. And yet it's still the lesser evil, at least to this trans immigrant.
Thanks, but this trans immigrant of color will criticise Starmer without paying the "but the Tories are worse" tax.
posted by ftrtts at 1:43 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Thanks, but this trans immigrant of color will criticise Starmer without paying the "but the Tories are worse" tax.
posted by ftrtts at 1:43 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Our friend who's joining us for the all nighter turned up for dinner with a very topical bottle.
posted by Dysk at 1:43 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 1:43 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
Thanks, but this trans immigrant of color will criticise Starmer without paying the "but the Tories are worse" tax.
You do you. I'm in a marginal, and less evil is both still evil, and still less.
posted by Dysk at 1:44 PM on July 4 [11 favorites]
You do you. I'm in a marginal, and less evil is both still evil, and still less.
posted by Dysk at 1:44 PM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Exit poll (via Sky News)
Labour: 410
Conservatives: 131
Liberal Democrats: 61
Reform: 13
Green: 2
SNP: 10
Others: 23
posted by Wordshore at 1:58 PM on July 4 [19 favorites]
Labour: 410
Conservatives: 131
Liberal Democrats: 61
Reform: 13
Green: 2
SNP: 10
Others: 23
posted by Wordshore at 1:58 PM on July 4 [19 favorites]
Another North American here going woohoo for all of y'all!
Confession... the most recent thing I've read about UK elections is @dieworkwear's GQ piece on Rishi Sunak: "Rishi Sunak's taste in clothes have always underscored accusations he's out of touch."
Oh! And this at Novara Media
Confession... the most recent thing I've read about UK elections is @dieworkwear's GQ piece on Rishi Sunak: "Rishi Sunak's taste in clothes have always underscored accusations he's out of touch."
Oh! And this at Novara Media
a 2023 Pew survey found that one-third of people under 30 regularly scroll TikTok for news, up 255% since 2020.posted by spamandkimchi at 2:01 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
The far right has been using social media effectively for years. In a 2021 research paper, ‘It’s Not Funny Anymore: Far-right Extremists’ Use of Humour’, the European Commission reported that: “At a time in which memes have become a universal means of communication, far-right groups have recognised this popular potential for politicisation. They put a lot of time and energy into meme production, spread their ideology – sometimes more, sometimes less openly – and act according to the motto: if the meme is good, the content cannot be bad.”
Humour is used by the alt and far right, the report concluded, to hook people in before radicalising them. This general election, we’ve seen this done frighteningly well by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, who currently has almost three times as many followers on his TikTok account as Labour and the Tories put together. Alongside Keir Starmer takedowns and tongue-in-cheek humour, a video of Farage singing Eminem’s ‘Guess Who’s Back’ (not to beat) has over eight million views.
So broken by our absolutely shit record at doing elections that I still feel miserably anxious.
posted by dng at 2:02 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:02 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
bbc: labour 410, tory scum 131, libdems 61, reform ghouls 13, greens 2
posted by General Malaise at 2:03 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by General Malaise at 2:03 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Sorry, missed that Wordshore already posted the Sky exits.
posted by General Malaise at 2:05 PM on July 4
posted by General Malaise at 2:05 PM on July 4
Jeez, what level of scum will reform have as MPs with 13?
posted by biffa at 2:05 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 2:05 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
13 seats predicted for a party of openly racist, bigoted, thick as mince neo-Nazis. Fuck this miserable little nation.
posted by fight or flight at 2:06 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 2:06 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
Ugh. Reform predicted to get 13 seats. I hope that's completely wrong or Farage is going to be even more nauseating. I'm absolutely sick of all the racist bigoted shitheads in this country.
posted by tomsk at 2:06 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
posted by tomsk at 2:06 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
There's something incredibly satisfying with Rishi Sunak throwing every gammon boomer wet dream policy at the wall, short of reforming the Empire by force, and the Tories are still struggling to be the official opposition instead of the libdems.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:07 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:07 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Careful, rory, you'll get the Americans in here taking over with their own election chat!
This American was already following y'all because of a very solid Last Leg viewing habit.
Dang, that....so, that's like a serious trouncing for the Conservatives, yeah?
Also -what exactly is the platform of Reform? And what's the deal with Nigel Farage, is he out on his ass?
(please say yes, please say yes, please say yes)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
This American was already following y'all because of a very solid Last Leg viewing habit.
Dang, that....so, that's like a serious trouncing for the Conservatives, yeah?
Also -what exactly is the platform of Reform? And what's the deal with Nigel Farage, is he out on his ass?
(please say yes, please say yes, please say yes)
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Exit polls are supposed to be pretty solid lately, according to some people Tim Harford rounded up on the last episode of More or Less (about 9:10 in).
Too bad the Lib Dems don't seem likely to form the official opposition, but it looks as if the Tories got kicked around a bit. WTF with the Reform numbers, though?
posted by maudlin at 2:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Too bad the Lib Dems don't seem likely to form the official opposition, but it looks as if the Tories got kicked around a bit. WTF with the Reform numbers, though?
posted by maudlin at 2:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Sky saying:
- Labour has a lower share of the vote than it had under Corbyn.
- Reform have a larger share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats.
If those two things are true, going to be hearing about them a lot over the coming times.
posted by Wordshore at 2:13 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
- Labour has a lower share of the vote than it had under Corbyn.
- Reform have a larger share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats.
If those two things are true, going to be hearing about them a lot over the coming times.
posted by Wordshore at 2:13 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Also -what exactly is the platform of Reform? And what's the deal with Nigel Farage, is he out on his ass?
Platform: racism. No, seriously. Racism.
Nige: if he gets the seats, a resounding success.
This is bad news.
posted by fight or flight at 2:13 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Platform: racism. No, seriously. Racism.
Nige: if he gets the seats, a resounding success.
This is bad news.
posted by fight or flight at 2:13 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Very Important: it's a criminal offence for anyone "to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted" and also "to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast—including any estimate—of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it". So best not do a straw poll of how your mates voted and post who you think is going to win based on it—at least, not until after 10pm British Summer Time.
Man, i wish the US and Canada had this rule.
posted by adrienneleigh at 2:14 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Man, i wish the US and Canada had this rule.
posted by adrienneleigh at 2:14 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
13 Reform ghouls (thanks General Malaise) is disappointing, I always hope for better from my people. Still I will take the win.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:14 PM on July 4
posted by antiwiggle at 2:14 PM on July 4
Also worth adding that this isn't 13 seats from a smaller number. This is a (potential) gain from 0 to 13 in a FPTP system. Word on the grapevine is that they got an even higher share of the popular vote than the Lib Dems. If it works out in the vote count, it's an absolutely concerning indication of the rise of outright fascism in the UK, helped no doubt by outside interference and MAGA-loving edgelords thinking it's fun to vote for "Big Nige".
posted by fight or flight at 2:18 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 2:18 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Well, I’ll take a moment to breathe.
The prospect of 13 Reform MPs is horrendous, particularly with whoever is obviously senior in the BBC who believes in giving Farage massively disproportionate air time to his actual political support.
But there was a moment just before they announced the exit poll, when it occurred to me that if things went really awry you could end up with Reform holding the balance of power, so at least this isn’t that. Very slim comfort but I’ll take it for now.
posted by penguin pie at 2:19 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
The prospect of 13 Reform MPs is horrendous, particularly with whoever is obviously senior in the BBC who believes in giving Farage massively disproportionate air time to his actual political support.
But there was a moment just before they announced the exit poll, when it occurred to me that if things went really awry you could end up with Reform holding the balance of power, so at least this isn’t that. Very slim comfort but I’ll take it for now.
posted by penguin pie at 2:19 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Also: I’m fascinated by the way none of the BBC anchors can wear party colours so they’re all in pink and brown.
posted by penguin pie at 2:20 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 2:20 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Also: I’m fascinated by the way none of the BBC anchors can wear party colours so they’re all in pink and brown.
Might complain as brown is the true colour of Reform. That and black.
posted by reynir at 2:21 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Might complain as brown is the true colour of Reform. That and black.
posted by reynir at 2:21 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Nige: if he gets the seats, a resounding success.
So, forgive me for what may be an obvious point of confusion: when you personally go to vote in your district, are you voting for a person or are you voting for a party? What I'm imagining is something like, your choice is between specific individuals, each of which represents a different party. So - if I'm correct about that, in theory, Nigel Farage might not be one of those 13 Reform people who is going to Parliament, right? Like, it could be 13 other Reform people who are there but Nigel isn't one of them because Labour won in his jurisdiction or something?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:22 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
So, forgive me for what may be an obvious point of confusion: when you personally go to vote in your district, are you voting for a person or are you voting for a party? What I'm imagining is something like, your choice is between specific individuals, each of which represents a different party. So - if I'm correct about that, in theory, Nigel Farage might not be one of those 13 Reform people who is going to Parliament, right? Like, it could be 13 other Reform people who are there but Nigel isn't one of them because Labour won in his jurisdiction or something?
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:22 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
> Humour is used by the alt and far right, the report concluded, to hook people in before radicalising them
and this is why it is absolutely necessary to support hard-left shitposters wherever you find them
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 2:27 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
and this is why it is absolutely necessary to support hard-left shitposters wherever you find them
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 2:27 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
EmpressCallipygos: Yes, that is correct. And in the UK (unlike Canada) a party leader doesn't technically have to hold a seat in the Commons, although they basically always do. There's some question, apparently, whether someone who loses their seat can still be PM in the UK (if they were PM before the election), but that's not going to be at issue in this election since the Tories are absolutely losing their majority. (This would absolutely not be possible in Canada. Westminster systems do have differences!)
posted by adrienneleigh at 2:27 PM on July 4
posted by adrienneleigh at 2:27 PM on July 4
Like, it could be 13 other Reform people who are there but Nigel isn't one of them because Labour won in his jurisdiction or something?
Clacton-on-Sea is a very safe Tory seat. 70% in the last election. It's an extremely gammon boomer heavy district with a median age of 50 vs the rest of the UK at 40. Labour is not winning that seat with vote splitting. Judging by the polling Farage is probably going to win that seat.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:28 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Clacton-on-Sea is a very safe Tory seat. 70% in the last election. It's an extremely gammon boomer heavy district with a median age of 50 vs the rest of the UK at 40. Labour is not winning that seat with vote splitting. Judging by the polling Farage is probably going to win that seat.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 2:28 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
In a Canadian parliamentary system, we vote for the party. Who the individual is running for the party can play into it in your riding, but really you're voting for the party. Like, Americans think Canadians directly vote for Justin Trudeau; they don't (I vote NDP), they are voting for the Liberal Party. Trudeau just happens to be the head of the party. Mark Gerretsen is my MP for the Liberal Party in my riding but when we cast those votes, it's because you support Liberals. But unlike US voters, I know a lot of Canadians that do switch parties when it comes to voting.
posted by Kitteh at 2:28 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Kitteh at 2:28 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
So - if I'm correct about that, in theory, Nigel Farage might not be one of those 13 Reform people who is going to Parliament, right?
Who cares? If he loses his seat, it's still 13 more outspoken neo-Nazis in political office than there were last week. This weird American obsession with Nigel Farage is half the problem. This week, one of their candidates compared autistic people to vegetables. The party also belatedly fired three candidates over blatantly racist comments (conveniently too late for them to be taken off the ballots).
They're all shit.
posted by fight or flight at 2:28 PM on July 4 [13 favorites]
Who cares? If he loses his seat, it's still 13 more outspoken neo-Nazis in political office than there were last week. This weird American obsession with Nigel Farage is half the problem. This week, one of their candidates compared autistic people to vegetables. The party also belatedly fired three candidates over blatantly racist comments (conveniently too late for them to be taken off the ballots).
They're all shit.
posted by fight or flight at 2:28 PM on July 4 [13 favorites]
I know, I just have a particular grudge against Nigel.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 2:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
in theory, Nigel Farage might not be one of those 13 Reform people who is going to Parliament, right? Like, it could be 13 other Reform people who are there but Nigel isn't one of them because Labour won in his jurisdiction or something?
You vote for a person who represents a party. Someone with big personal name recognition can get a boost from that.
Farage has been predicted to win Clacton, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't if a dozen others also make it over the line. Yes, it's depressing to think of him in Westminster, but it isn't as if he hasn't had endless media platforms for the past decade even from outside it. And as others are pointing out, we're all going to become depressingly familiar with a dozen other utter pricks as well.
Still. 70% of MPs are going to be progressives, on these projections.
posted by rory at 2:31 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
You vote for a person who represents a party. Someone with big personal name recognition can get a boost from that.
Farage has been predicted to win Clacton, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't if a dozen others also make it over the line. Yes, it's depressing to think of him in Westminster, but it isn't as if he hasn't had endless media platforms for the past decade even from outside it. And as others are pointing out, we're all going to become depressingly familiar with a dozen other utter pricks as well.
Still. 70% of MPs are going to be progressives, on these projections.
posted by rory at 2:31 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Yeah, you can probably blame a lot of those 13 potential Reform MPs on Essex. The only vague upside of that (there is no actual upside) is that Essex is where almost all the absolute shittiest Conservative MPs currently reside (Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel, Mark Francois, and on and on), so at least they would probably be losing their seats in this scenario.
posted by dng at 2:31 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by dng at 2:31 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
The BBC has a handy timetable for when results are likely to come through and in particular what crucial seats to look out for. In short, between 2 and 4am BST (9 and 11pm EDT or 6 and 8pm PDT) is when most of the action will occur.
posted by Major Clanger at 2:36 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 2:36 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Interesting twitter thread about the number of seats in the exit poll that are actually too close to call - not enough for Labour to lose, but enough for us still to each be holding a big pinch of salt in our hands at those initial figures.
posted by penguin pie at 2:40 PM on July 4
posted by penguin pie at 2:40 PM on July 4
"Even just doing a finger-width of lager every time a Conservative seat was lost could mean drinking as many as 25 pints. If someone is suggesting a drinking game based on Tory seat losses, assume they're trying to kill you." - @tony@hoyle.me.uk
Be careful out there.
posted by gwint at 2:41 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
Be careful out there.
posted by gwint at 2:41 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
Platform: racism. No, seriously. Racism.
Racism has been the wedge that all the main parties have been trying to use since 2016. It's why there was a brexit majority. Its certainly why there was such a tory majority in 2019 as it shifted traditional Labour voters from the red wall to "get brexit done". Its a poison in our society and I'm not convinced any of our parties are invested in addressing it, if anything they want to ride it.
posted by biffa at 2:43 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Racism has been the wedge that all the main parties have been trying to use since 2016. It's why there was a brexit majority. Its certainly why there was such a tory majority in 2019 as it shifted traditional Labour voters from the red wall to "get brexit done". Its a poison in our society and I'm not convinced any of our parties are invested in addressing it, if anything they want to ride it.
posted by biffa at 2:43 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
One Reform UK PM is one too many. The issue is not that they've gained 3 or 13 but that they've gained enough to win AT ALL, anywhere. They never have before; there have been deeply conservative pockets of the UK, but even there Farage's UKIP/Brexit Party efforts have always been fringe howlers and Farage himself went 0-for-7 trying to get in. The only PMs they have ever had have been defectors elected previously with other parties.
The explanation, which is still not a comfort, is not that this is a dramatic upsurge in the NUMBER of racists and bigots, but rather than that this is a combination of (a) the Tories no longer being perceived as wholly racist and bigoted ENOUGH for the hardcore bigots -- evidenced by One of Them being installed as PM, a failure to embrace Braverman, a failure to Stop Every Single Boat, a failure to fill Rwanda with asylum claimers -- and (b) reasonable organization, social media bombardment and whatnot on the part of the Farageites that finally made them a viable protest vote.
posted by delfin at 2:50 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
The explanation, which is still not a comfort, is not that this is a dramatic upsurge in the NUMBER of racists and bigots, but rather than that this is a combination of (a) the Tories no longer being perceived as wholly racist and bigoted ENOUGH for the hardcore bigots -- evidenced by One of Them being installed as PM, a failure to embrace Braverman, a failure to Stop Every Single Boat, a failure to fill Rwanda with asylum claimers -- and (b) reasonable organization, social media bombardment and whatnot on the part of the Farageites that finally made them a viable protest vote.
posted by delfin at 2:50 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Looking on the bright side, we're not France who are facing the fascists actually being the largest party on 33% of the vote. The swing to Labour is absolutely huge, projected to be just shy of the Blair landside that had them in power for 13 years.
The lib Dems also have had a huge result for a 3rd party.
For all Starmer's and Labour's faults, this is an absolute rejection of the Tories under Johnson, Truss, and Sunak and the last 14 years of absolute shit. We're definitely still facing grim days ahead, but at least there's hope the government won't be doing their hardest to make it even worse.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:50 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
The lib Dems also have had a huge result for a 3rd party.
For all Starmer's and Labour's faults, this is an absolute rejection of the Tories under Johnson, Truss, and Sunak and the last 14 years of absolute shit. We're definitely still facing grim days ahead, but at least there's hope the government won't be doing their hardest to make it even worse.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:50 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
I'm sitting in Priti Patel's constituency in Essex right now, maybe quarter of a mile from the Labour Hall where my parents have been party activists for well over half a century. My elderly Dad's not well right now, to the point I'm not sure if he's fully aware today is election day, and I've had Covid all week so haven't been able to visit him in the care home to keep nudging his memory. I'd love to see her booted out by Labour, though it'll be bittersweet if I have to try and explain it to my Dad and hope he absorbs it. (There was a Labour MP here at some point during the Blair years, but the constituency's been redrawn since then). But I'll do my utmost to enjoy the whole shebang for him, whatever the local result, and whatever his ability to appreciate it. He did at least get a postal vote sent off before his most recent decline so he's played his part.
posted by penguin pie at 2:52 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 2:52 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Trying to be philosophical about Reform possibly winning 13 seats:
- Since the major theme of this election is 'Tories Out!', in deeply blue territory I suppose it's not surprising that this manifested in picking the other right wing part. I suspect that many of these will flip back Conservative at next election of they show even a modicum of competence in opposition.
- 13 MPs is probably just enough to be completely unmanageable for Farage. Unlike the Fascists elsewhere, Farage is pure political showman with little to no nous about how to manage a party in Parliament. I won't be surprised when half wind up embroiled in some scandal or another. And I suppose a strength of the UK system is that all these Reform MP will actually be forced to do the boring job of constituency MP and it will quickly become apparent to those constituencies how little substance there is to them.
- I have my fingers crossed that the exit polls are way too optimistic for Reform. I suspect that they're going to be particularly difficult to guess as there voters will either be very vocal or very shy.
posted by nangua at 2:54 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
- Since the major theme of this election is 'Tories Out!', in deeply blue territory I suppose it's not surprising that this manifested in picking the other right wing part. I suspect that many of these will flip back Conservative at next election of they show even a modicum of competence in opposition.
- 13 MPs is probably just enough to be completely unmanageable for Farage. Unlike the Fascists elsewhere, Farage is pure political showman with little to no nous about how to manage a party in Parliament. I won't be surprised when half wind up embroiled in some scandal or another. And I suppose a strength of the UK system is that all these Reform MP will actually be forced to do the boring job of constituency MP and it will quickly become apparent to those constituencies how little substance there is to them.
- I have my fingers crossed that the exit polls are way too optimistic for Reform. I suspect that they're going to be particularly difficult to guess as there voters will either be very vocal or very shy.
posted by nangua at 2:54 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Every time Daisy Cooper is introduced on TV I wonder for a split second why Daisy May Cooper is being called on for political commentary, and then am disappointed.
posted by penguin pie at 2:58 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 2:58 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
John Curtice, writing on the BBC liveblog:
posted by Kattullus at 3:03 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
It looks as though Reform may win more seats than many polls suggested.If I understand this correctly, the projection of 13 seats is highly uncertain.
This is largely because, not only has the Conservative vote fallen far in seats they previously held, but also because Reform has advanced most in areas people voted Leave in the 2016 EU referendum.
However, how many seats Reform will win is highly uncertain – our model suggests there are many places where they have some - but a relatively low - chance of winning.
posted by Kattullus at 3:03 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
> I have my fingers crossed that the exit polls are way too optimistic for Reform. I suspect that they're going to be particularly difficult to guess as there voters will either be very vocal or very shy.
Yeah, fingers crossed. Not sweet at the thought of thirteen pieces of extra thick reformed ham stinking up the commons.
posted by lucidium at 3:05 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Yeah, fingers crossed. Not sweet at the thought of thirteen pieces of extra thick reformed ham stinking up the commons.
posted by lucidium at 3:05 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Damn, the Reform vote in Sunderland was huge. Still Labour won (as was expected).
posted by antiwiggle at 3:15 PM on July 4
posted by antiwiggle at 3:15 PM on July 4
The swing to Labour is absolutely huge, projected to be just shy of the Blair landside that had them in power for 13 years.
The vote share has moved from 32% under Corbyn in 2019 to 36% under Starmer (predicted)
Tories are predicted to get 26% (down from 43%) and Reform 17%.
The big swing hasn't been towards Labour, it's from Tory to Reform.
posted by grahamparks at 3:16 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
The vote share has moved from 32% under Corbyn in 2019 to 36% under Starmer (predicted)
Tories are predicted to get 26% (down from 43%) and Reform 17%.
The big swing hasn't been towards Labour, it's from Tory to Reform.
posted by grahamparks at 3:16 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Thata lot of racists in Sunderland. Labour win with a swing to Reform. We could easily be looking at 13 Reform MPs but a lot more votes.
posted by biffa at 3:17 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 3:17 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
I must say, the Reform showing in the exit poll and in the Sunderland South declaration terrifies me. In Canada, their Conservative party was undercut by a similarly populist/fascist party, also called Reform, and they ended up killing the Conservatives and wearing their skin: the Canadian conservative party is all Reform loons, now, and that has driven politics off to the far right.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 3:17 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 3:17 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Lucy Prebble on Twitter with her usual pleasing turn of phrase:
"Anyway it’s nice. This is nice. The Prime Minister is going to be a human rights lawyer rather than, say, a billionaire’s husband, Liz Truss, or a sperm-filled Catherine wheel."posted by penguin pie at 3:18 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
Related news Dissolution Honours list announced (Guardian). tl;dr: Life peerages for Theresa May and Chris Grayling and sending a clear message with crossbench nomination for Dr Hilary Cass.
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 3:20 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Freelance Demiurge at 3:20 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
That sure is a concerning number of Reform votes in Sunderland South
posted by General Malaise at 3:21 PM on July 4
posted by General Malaise at 3:21 PM on July 4
Going to bed, then back to research activities tomorrow. This is enough for me; sleepy thoughts.
1. FPTP is a fundamentally flawed method of determining seats. So it's ironic that this time, for a pleasant change, it's crippled the centre-right through to far-right and handed Labour maybe a 160+ seat majority. Especially if Labour haven't achieved a record voting share.
2. Unless Starmer manages to get genuine electoral reform through (and the House of Lords is currently numerically stacked against him in terms of getting legislation passed), Labour will be a one-term government. Farage becoming Prime Minister as head of a "New Conservative Alliance Party" next time round, under the existing FPTP, feels feasible.
3. The Reform Party is a money-making business. There's going to be a lot of Farage on the TV, unless [redacted because the mods will delete].
4. There will be up to five summers before the next election. The chances of a Mass Mortality Heat Wave event over that half a decade are significant. The Green Party stood not far off 600 candidates in this election. They are projected to win 2 seats.
5. Violence is, inevitably, coming.
'night all.
posted by Wordshore at 3:21 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
1. FPTP is a fundamentally flawed method of determining seats. So it's ironic that this time, for a pleasant change, it's crippled the centre-right through to far-right and handed Labour maybe a 160+ seat majority. Especially if Labour haven't achieved a record voting share.
2. Unless Starmer manages to get genuine electoral reform through (and the House of Lords is currently numerically stacked against him in terms of getting legislation passed), Labour will be a one-term government. Farage becoming Prime Minister as head of a "New Conservative Alliance Party" next time round, under the existing FPTP, feels feasible.
3. The Reform Party is a money-making business. There's going to be a lot of Farage on the TV, unless [redacted because the mods will delete].
4. There will be up to five summers before the next election. The chances of a Mass Mortality Heat Wave event over that half a decade are significant. The Green Party stood not far off 600 candidates in this election. They are projected to win 2 seats.
5. Violence is, inevitably, coming.
'night all.
posted by Wordshore at 3:21 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
Sunderland is first to declare (Labour hold), and the Tories have been beaten into third place by Reform.
BBC's Clive Myrie now talking to Jacob Rees-Mogg (ugh) who's attempting to pin all the blame on Sunak by talking about how "presidential" the election was. Bollocks. Sunak was far less offensive an individual than some of you lot, R-M, you smug chaise longue. People were voting against all of you.
posted by rory at 3:24 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
BBC's Clive Myrie now talking to Jacob Rees-Mogg (ugh) who's attempting to pin all the blame on Sunak by talking about how "presidential" the election was. Bollocks. Sunak was far less offensive an individual than some of you lot, R-M, you smug chaise longue. People were voting against all of you.
posted by rory at 3:24 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Scum rises to the top. I am going to do the sensible thing and also quit for the night. Hopefully the morning will bring good news and a trip to Andorra.
posted by biffa at 3:25 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by biffa at 3:25 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
As someone who lives in Sunderland (but not in the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency) this sadly doesn't surprise me.
posted by reynir at 3:25 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by reynir at 3:25 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Only 51% turnout in Sunderland, too. Pretty bleak.
Andrea Leadsom in the BBC studio now... not sure I can go the distance.
posted by rory at 3:27 PM on July 4
Andrea Leadsom in the BBC studio now... not sure I can go the distance.
posted by rory at 3:27 PM on July 4
If I understand this correctly, the projection of 13 seats is highly uncertain.
Basically they totted up a bunch of seats where Reform have like 20 or 30% chance of winning and the model chucked out an average. Small swings in the individual seat counts could make a big difference; could be 0, could be 10, could be 20. (probably not). Same goes with Labour for any individual seat that's a tight projection, there will be some where the exit polling projections has them winning and they don't; but then that also applies for Tory projected narrow wins, so while there could be a significant shift either way, say 50 seats if you're getting to the unlikely ends of the projection, it's likely to be fairly close to the current projection, within 10 seats or so; and even a much worse result for Labour than projected will still result in a very large win for Labour overall.
The vote share has moved from 32% under Corbyn in 2019 to 36% under Starmer (predicted)
Still around a couple of million of extra votes, which is not to be sneezed at. Blair got 35% in 2005 against a much stronger tory showing (32%) and still had 400 plus seats. With FPTP, it's not national vote share that's particularly important, it's how that vote is distributed, especially in what is now mostly a 4 horse race (scotland & NI excepted). Votes in safe seats are basically wasted, as are ones where they're too spread out; which is why the Lib Dems and Reform could potentially get similar national vote share, but the Lib Dems get 50 more seats, and why the greens get very little for million of votes. But yes, this election was a collapse for the tory vote in no uncertain terms.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:29 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Basically they totted up a bunch of seats where Reform have like 20 or 30% chance of winning and the model chucked out an average. Small swings in the individual seat counts could make a big difference; could be 0, could be 10, could be 20. (probably not). Same goes with Labour for any individual seat that's a tight projection, there will be some where the exit polling projections has them winning and they don't; but then that also applies for Tory projected narrow wins, so while there could be a significant shift either way, say 50 seats if you're getting to the unlikely ends of the projection, it's likely to be fairly close to the current projection, within 10 seats or so; and even a much worse result for Labour than projected will still result in a very large win for Labour overall.
The vote share has moved from 32% under Corbyn in 2019 to 36% under Starmer (predicted)
Still around a couple of million of extra votes, which is not to be sneezed at. Blair got 35% in 2005 against a much stronger tory showing (32%) and still had 400 plus seats. With FPTP, it's not national vote share that's particularly important, it's how that vote is distributed, especially in what is now mostly a 4 horse race (scotland & NI excepted). Votes in safe seats are basically wasted, as are ones where they're too spread out; which is why the Lib Dems and Reform could potentially get similar national vote share, but the Lib Dems get 50 more seats, and why the greens get very little for million of votes. But yes, this election was a collapse for the tory vote in no uncertain terms.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:29 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Anything less than a total shutout of Conservative and UKIP Redux is a profound failure of state on par with the 1066 decision and Brexit itself.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 3:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Well, 52% of voters went for Brexit, and they also voted in Boris 'lying scumbag' Johnson; the USA is likely to vote back in a terrifying dictator for life and half of Europe is falling to the outright fascists, so I'm taking the wins where I can get em, personally.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:33 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 3:33 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
and this is why it is absolutely necessary to support hard-left shitposters wherever you find them
Well, don't tease us.
Vote for the lesser of two evils. Vote Evil.
I want a bread for Prime Minister
I don't vote for genocide
Vote Labour and still die horribly
Not a shitpost, but spellingmistakescostlives's "Election '24" set of stories is a nice compendium on why Starmer represents a hollowing out of Labour politics.
(Sorry if you're not on Instagram, it's just where I follow a lot of leftists.)
posted by ftrtts at 3:34 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Well, don't tease us.
Vote for the lesser of two evils. Vote Evil.
I want a bread for Prime Minister
I don't vote for genocide
Vote Labour and still die horribly
Not a shitpost, but spellingmistakescostlives's "Election '24" set of stories is a nice compendium on why Starmer represents a hollowing out of Labour politics.
(Sorry if you're not on Instagram, it's just where I follow a lot of leftists.)
posted by ftrtts at 3:34 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Blythe & Ashingdon, second declared. Labour hold. Reform takes second place again.
Leadsom saying "perhaps we've not been conservative enough". Code for...
posted by rory at 3:34 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Leadsom saying "perhaps we've not been conservative enough". Code for...
posted by rory at 3:34 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
As a native of Sunderland (though I've not lived there for close to 30 years now) I'm disappointed by the Reform vote. Still, the share of the Labour vote went up from the 2019 vote. So all is not lost.
Also, the turnout in Sunderland is often low. Being a Labour safe seat the urgency to vote is not there.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:34 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Also, the turnout in Sunderland is often low. Being a Labour safe seat the urgency to vote is not there.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:34 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Here’s hoping Labour have a REALLY good couple of years before facing combined Con/Reform.
posted by Artw at 3:35 PM on July 4
posted by Artw at 3:35 PM on July 4
That sure is a concerning number of Reform votes in Blythe & Ashingdon
posted by General Malaise at 3:36 PM on July 4
posted by General Malaise at 3:36 PM on July 4
Person on the BBC saying they’re “sick of this woke stuff”
posted by General Malaise at 3:37 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by General Malaise at 3:37 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
On a night when Labour are going to win 60% or so of the seats, the bbc still making sure to giving at least 80% of their air time to conservative MPs.
posted by dng at 3:38 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by dng at 3:38 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Christ, the denial from Leadsom even as armageddon unfolds in front of her. "The Conservatives are the natural party of government"!
posted by rory at 3:38 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by rory at 3:38 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Thanks Jeremy Vine, that is indeed "a large conservative... hexagon."
posted by Dysk at 3:42 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 3:42 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
On the BBC, John Curtice was saying that the Labour result (in Sunderland and Blyth) was largely as expected from the exit polls but the Reform result was lower.
posted by antiwiggle at 3:45 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by antiwiggle at 3:45 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
> Here’s hoping Labour have a REALLY good couple of years before facing combined Con/Reform.
My fear is they do the usual centrist thing of going "oh fuck, we're losing the racist block, we have to cater to them!" which is the self fulfilling strategy of platforming fascists while alienating progressives / the left.
If they take it to heart they won their seats because racists split the conservative votes combined with support for a NOT_TORY candidate and not there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour's version of Red flavoured austerity instead of Blue, they might actually have a chance of not holding the door open for fascists at the next election.
posted by mrzarquon at 3:45 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
My fear is they do the usual centrist thing of going "oh fuck, we're losing the racist block, we have to cater to them!" which is the self fulfilling strategy of platforming fascists while alienating progressives / the left.
If they take it to heart they won their seats because racists split the conservative votes combined with support for a NOT_TORY candidate and not there was a huge groundswell of support for Labour's version of Red flavoured austerity instead of Blue, they might actually have a chance of not holding the door open for fascists at the next election.
posted by mrzarquon at 3:45 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Person on the BBC saying they’re “sick of this woke stuff”
Yeah, but bear in mind that person was former Conservative MP and prominent Leave supporter "Dame" Angela Leadson
posted by Paul Slade at 3:47 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Yeah, but bear in mind that person was former Conservative MP and prominent Leave supporter "Dame" Angela Leadson
posted by Paul Slade at 3:47 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
The vote share has moved from 32% under Corbyn in 2019 to 36% under Starmer (predicted)
For a slightly longer perspective, 40% for Corbyn in 2017 wasn't quite enough to make it (and was less than the Tories's 42.3%).
posted by ambrosen at 3:47 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
For a slightly longer perspective, 40% for Corbyn in 2017 wasn't quite enough to make it (and was less than the Tories's 42.3%).
posted by ambrosen at 3:47 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Really seems like a lot of Conservative voters, seeing their party collapsing, decided to go all in on racism
posted by General Malaise at 3:49 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by General Malaise at 3:49 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
It's important to note that the constituencies that were declared so far have been what we call "strong Leave areas". These are places that voted for Brexit to a higher proportion than the rest, and were thus areas of focus for the UKIP/Brexit/Reform/BNP/whatever-they-call-themselves-this-week Party.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:06 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 4:06 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
OMG the BBC seems to have decided that Reform is the only talking point of the night, eclipsing the vast Labour landslide. Switching off, I may be back in the middle of the night for a bit.
posted by penguin pie at 4:06 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
posted by penguin pie at 4:06 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
U.K. Labour Party wins landslide election over Conservatives: exit poll
posted by y2karl at 4:07 PM on July 4
posted by y2karl at 4:07 PM on July 4
OMG the BBC seems to have decided that Reform is the only talking point of the night, eclipsing the vast Labour landslide. Switching off, I may be back in the middle of the night for a bit.
Yeah, Clive Myrie just said exactly that. Absolutely baffling analysis. Just completely nonsensical.
posted by dng at 4:08 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Yeah, Clive Myrie just said exactly that. Absolutely baffling analysis. Just completely nonsensical.
posted by dng at 4:08 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
OMG the BBC seems to have decided that Reform is the only talking point of the night, eclipsing the vast Labour landslide. Switching off, I may be back in the middle of the night for a bit.
I'm watching Channel 4, it's the same.
posted by maggiemaggie at 4:12 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
I'm watching Channel 4, it's the same.
posted by maggiemaggie at 4:12 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
OMG the BBC seems to have decided that Reform is the only talking point of the night, eclipsing the vast Labour landslide.
To be fair, that also seems to describe this Metafilter thread since the exit poll results came out...
posted by clawsoon at 4:18 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
To be fair, that also seems to describe this Metafilter thread since the exit poll results came out...
posted by clawsoon at 4:18 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
There isn't much more to talk about until they've got some real results where the outcome was in question.
posted by offog at 4:20 PM on July 4
posted by offog at 4:20 PM on July 4
Labour win Swindon from the Conservatives. The candidates are being nice to each other.
posted by antiwiggle at 4:20 PM on July 4
posted by antiwiggle at 4:20 PM on July 4
Farage is an oleaginous racist and fascist for whom the guillotine is too good.
But also:Farage is spectacle. Farage is outrage. Farage is chaos. He's not part of the plan. Thus: media jizz themselves over him.
posted by lalochezia at 4:21 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
But also:Farage is spectacle. Farage is outrage. Farage is chaos. He's not part of the plan. Thus: media jizz themselves over him.
posted by lalochezia at 4:21 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
in other words, re: Farage (and those like him).
"There are some stupid mistakes that only very smart people make, and one of them is the notion that a sensible argument seriously presented can compete with a really good piece of theatre." - Laurie Penny.
posted by lalochezia at 4:24 PM on July 4 [16 favorites]
"There are some stupid mistakes that only very smart people make, and one of them is the notion that a sensible argument seriously presented can compete with a really good piece of theatre." - Laurie Penny.
posted by lalochezia at 4:24 PM on July 4 [16 favorites]
I'm sitting at the opposite end of Essex from Farage's Clacton (Essex is a big county by UK standards, about 1million acres), but even though it's adjacent to Greater London, my constituency is largely white and middle-class, with a majority of ABC1s, as well as fairly well-off retirees on good pensions. The Tory majority here at the last election was 22,000.
We don't have a Reform candidate standing in my constituency this election, but I wish we did. This is because I'm fairly sure that if there had been one, a sizeable chunk of Tory voters would have voted Reform - not enough for them to win, but enough to eat into the Tory majority and maybe, just maybe, allow a Labour win.
The well-heeled middle-class suburbs are horribly racist hiding under a polite veneer and, given the chance, many people will show their true colours if they think they can get away with it, particularly if it's cloaked in a semblance of political credibility.
In Clacton, a working-class town, there is no attempt to hide the racism, in fact it's on proud display, but scratch the surface of many, many middle-class towns and suburbs and you'll find the same repellent racist sentiments, just hidden in plain sight.
posted by essexjan at 4:26 PM on July 4 [18 favorites]
We don't have a Reform candidate standing in my constituency this election, but I wish we did. This is because I'm fairly sure that if there had been one, a sizeable chunk of Tory voters would have voted Reform - not enough for them to win, but enough to eat into the Tory majority and maybe, just maybe, allow a Labour win.
The well-heeled middle-class suburbs are horribly racist hiding under a polite veneer and, given the chance, many people will show their true colours if they think they can get away with it, particularly if it's cloaked in a semblance of political credibility.
In Clacton, a working-class town, there is no attempt to hide the racism, in fact it's on proud display, but scratch the surface of many, many middle-class towns and suburbs and you'll find the same repellent racist sentiments, just hidden in plain sight.
posted by essexjan at 4:26 PM on July 4 [18 favorites]
To be fair, talking about Keir Starmer's Labour Party is a bit like when Wayne and Garth tried to find something to say about Delaware.
posted by Kattullus at 4:26 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 4:26 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Racism doesn't have a 'class'.
posted by PheasantlySurprised at 4:38 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by PheasantlySurprised at 4:38 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
The Wilhelm Scream page 1970s Antihero linked is really improving the experience of having repetitive pontification on in the background.
posted by lucidium at 4:50 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by lucidium at 4:50 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Racism doesn't have a 'class'.
No, but many of its manifestations do have a class character (in the Marxist sense).
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:30 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
No, but many of its manifestations do have a class character (in the Marxist sense).
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:30 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Looking at the results and seeing so many familiar things. An election where a few percentage points is the difference between a huge landslide and a historic loss, or a minor party getting a handful of seats versus none at all. I want to give a big sarcastic thank you from Canada for endowing us with such a broken electoral system.
posted by thecjm at 5:34 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
posted by thecjm at 5:34 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
The Wilhelm Scream page is doing a better job of keeping me informed of new results than the BBC is.
posted by antiwiggle at 5:37 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by antiwiggle at 5:37 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
LibDems take Harrogate and Knaresborough from Conservative. While it was a fairly safe Con seat for the last decade+, it had been LD before that.
But it's right on Rishi's doorstep ...
posted by scruss at 5:41 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
But it's right on Rishi's doorstep ...
posted by scruss at 5:41 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Boo, first Con hold: Rayleigh and Wickford
posted by scruss at 5:52 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 5:52 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Somebody on Reddit is saying that it's looking like the Tories are going to have fewer seats than they've had since 1761.
posted by clawsoon at 5:55 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 5:55 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
So it looks like the big Reform result isn't going to pan out. Is there any danger that the pundits established a false narrative early on and it will somehow influence how people think about the election even if it turns out to be wrong?
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 6:16 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
First Reform MP returned. Ashfield. Fuck. I think my painkillers are wearing off as well (I broke my little toe earlier this evening). Not enjoying raw-dogging this reality.
posted by Dysk at 6:18 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Dysk at 6:18 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Psephologist Nicholas Whyte* is pointing out on Bluesky that Reform failed to win one of their top targets, which the exit poll suggested they’d win, and therefore it seems unlikely they’ll get into double figures.
* Yes, that one, the science fiction fan.
posted by Kattullus at 6:24 PM on July 4
* Yes, that one, the science fiction fan.
posted by Kattullus at 6:24 PM on July 4
First Reform MP returned
Time for my third glass of whisky, though that is really to celebrate the Cannock Chase Labour victory (Conservatives down by 40%).
posted by antiwiggle at 6:26 PM on July 4
Time for my third glass of whisky, though that is really to celebrate the Cannock Chase Labour victory (Conservatives down by 40%).
posted by antiwiggle at 6:26 PM on July 4
(Up from my nap; right, what's going on?)
Ashfield returning Reform is not a surprise; Anderson was the former Conservative MP who had the whip suspended and defected to Reform. A lot of his voters are Tories who have voted to keep their representative. (It's an odd seat, too - a huge vote for an independent, who is a prominent local politician).
But it's still unpleasant to see. I watched his victory speech. It was short and horribly predictable: "I want my country back".
posted by Major Clanger at 6:29 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Ashfield returning Reform is not a surprise; Anderson was the former Conservative MP who had the whip suspended and defected to Reform. A lot of his voters are Tories who have voted to keep their representative. (It's an odd seat, too - a huge vote for an independent, who is a prominent local politician).
But it's still unpleasant to see. I watched his victory speech. It was short and horribly predictable: "I want my country back".
posted by Major Clanger at 6:29 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Mr Anderson this is a Wendy's
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:31 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:31 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
The Wilhelm scream site just played the Nelson laugh and flashed up the message "George Galloway goes back to life as a cat."
Presumably he's lost in Rochdale. Good riddance.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:38 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Presumably he's lost in Rochdale. Good riddance.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:38 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
ahahaha serial egomaniac Galloway loses Rochdale
posted by scruss at 6:39 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 6:39 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
George Galloway gets the boot after his brief return. Neil Kinnock (former Labour leader) on BBC absolutely ecstatic and just about managing not to use the F-word when giving his views of Galloway as a person.
posted by Major Clanger at 6:39 PM on July 4 [18 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 6:39 PM on July 4 [18 favorites]
George Galloway has lost his Rochdale seat to Labour. "He's such a chancer, he's so superficial.", Neil Kinnock, BBC election special.
posted by antiwiggle at 6:41 PM on July 4
posted by antiwiggle at 6:41 PM on July 4
I am always smiling when I see a Monster Raving Loony up on the stage, celebrating every single vote they get.
posted by delfin at 6:41 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by delfin at 6:41 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
First seat in Scotland declared: Kilmarnock and Loudoun for Labour, from SNP
posted by scruss at 6:46 PM on July 4
posted by scruss at 6:46 PM on July 4
Starmer's kept his seat. Pity.
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:00 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:00 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
I can't believe that people passed up the chance to vote for the guy in the Elmo costume.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:00 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:00 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Starmer beat him _and_ Nick the Incredible Flying Brick! Impressive.
posted by delfin at 7:01 PM on July 4
posted by delfin at 7:01 PM on July 4
The Labour guy who won Erewash was in some of the same circles as me bank in uni. Seen him a few times since, he's always struck me as incredibly sound, including when talking politics. I'm taking the victories I can.
posted by Dysk at 7:06 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 7:06 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
The Welwyn Hatfield returning officer has the biggest hat yet. Also Grant Schapps is out.
posted by antiwiggle at 7:08 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by antiwiggle at 7:08 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Grant Shapps, or whatever he's called today, booted out. That's the second cabinet minister down.
posted by Major Clanger at 7:08 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Major Clanger at 7:08 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
IDS survived. Shame.
posted by antiwiggle at 7:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by antiwiggle at 7:10 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Labour's first massive own goal of the night. Having deselected Faiza Shaheen, who stood as an independent, its vote split down the middle between her and the parachuted-in candidate, and so Tory stalwart Iain Duncan Smith - who had a thin majority last time - gets in comfortably.
posted by Major Clanger at 7:15 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 7:15 PM on July 4 [17 favorites]
IDS, 17,281 votes.
Shama Tatler, 12,523 votes.
Faiza Shaheen, 12,445 votes.
posted by lucidium at 7:20 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Shama Tatler, 12,523 votes.
Faiza Shaheen, 12,445 votes.
posted by lucidium at 7:20 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Jeremy Corbyn easily beats Labour to be re-elected MP for Islington North as independent
Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, has been re-elected as MP for Islington North. After being banned from running as a Labour candidate, he ran as an independent, and easily beat his Labour opponent. Corbyn got 24,120 votes and Labour’s Praful Nargund got 16,874 votes.
posted by lalochezia at 7:29 PM on July 4 [16 favorites]
Fuck Farage. That's depressing.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:30 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Farage finally gets what he wants: to lazily fuck up the country from the green seats of the Palace of Westminster
posted by ambrosen at 7:30 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 7:30 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Farage calling himself centre-right is an affront to decency.
posted by Dysk at 7:32 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 7:32 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Praful Nargund
Some kind of private healthcare boss? Really? Wow.
posted by Artw at 7:37 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Some kind of private healthcare boss? Really? Wow.
posted by Artw at 7:37 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
MeFi’s own garius on Bluesky:
The only redeeming part of Farage getting elected is he's about to discover how much work being a constituency MP is.posted by Pallas Athena at 7:38 PM on July 4 [20 favorites]
The downside is the people of Clacton are going to discover how fucking lazy he is. They deserve better.
whew, Reform prediction down to 4 seats
posted by sarble at 7:40 PM on July 4 [13 favorites]
posted by sarble at 7:40 PM on July 4 [13 favorites]
BBC's updated forecast puts Labour on 405, Conservatives on 154, Lib Dems 56. Reform predicted to get 4 seats, far fewer than the 13 that the initial exit polls suggested.
posted by Major Clanger at 7:40 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 7:40 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Clearly, Dominion's Italian satellites are beaming down votes once again to keep Reform from winning it all outright.
posted by delfin at 7:42 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by delfin at 7:42 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
If you, like me, like nice little maps and graphs and things, CNN's UK election tracker is pretty nice.
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:43 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:43 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Exit polls were that wrong? Oh, thank FUCK it's not 13 seats. (Tim Harford, your interviewee has some 'splaining to do.)
posted by maudlin at 7:44 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by maudlin at 7:44 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
(I suspect there are also UK-based media sources doing nice little maps and graphs and things, but i couldn't actually find any! The BBC has lots of live coverage but, as far as i can tell, no little maps or graphs!)
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:46 PM on July 4
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:46 PM on July 4
(I suspect there are also UK-based media sources doing nice little maps and graphs and things, but i couldn't actually find any! The BBC has lots of live coverage but, as far as i can tell, no little maps or graphs!)
The Guardian has live results with maps.
posted by clawsoon at 7:48 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
The Guardian has live results with maps.
posted by clawsoon at 7:48 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
I have work tomorrow in a few hours so I am going to bed. See you in the morning when we have a new government.
posted by antiwiggle at 7:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by antiwiggle at 7:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
but they were all of them deceived, for in darkness Sauron forged the One Swingometer
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 7:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
It sounds like there was a pretty big Reform vote, but it mostly split conservatives and cost the Tories marginal seats that went to Labour. And that could still be bad news, because the Tories may react to that by swinging hard towards the populist right. But there probably isn't going to be a significant Reform block in parliament tomorrow, which is something.
Nobody seems to be saying this, but my sense is that the other story is that cracking down hard on pro-Palestinian speech has cost Labour in what should be safe seats, although it's not necessarily clear to me that they're going to change course on that, given the size of their margin.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:49 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
Nobody seems to be saying this, but my sense is that the other story is that cracking down hard on pro-Palestinian speech has cost Labour in what should be safe seats, although it's not necessarily clear to me that they're going to change course on that, given the size of their margin.
posted by ArbitraryAndCapricious at 7:49 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
Sounds like Braverman is launching her bid for leadership of the Conservative party right now, from that speech.
posted by Dysk at 7:55 PM on July 4
posted by Dysk at 7:55 PM on July 4
Well, of course. If Mostly Racist just got wiped out because Completely Racist snipped off 20% of their vote share, it's only right to put Weapons-Grade Racist at the head of your rebuilding party to compensate.
posted by delfin at 7:58 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
posted by delfin at 7:58 PM on July 4 [10 favorites]
Labour could counter this by not being shit and hoping success wins out, or by giving racists little treats and hoping it appeases them. I have opinions on which might work (the first) and which absolutely won’t (the later) and what this incarnation of Labour is going to be most inclined to (hope they prove me wrong).
posted by Artw at 8:03 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
posted by Artw at 8:03 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
Penny Mordaunt (The One From The Coronation With The Big Sword) is out.
And Tunbridge Wells, Conservative since, well, the paleolithic, has gone Lib Dem. The place is literally the byword for middle-class reactionaries.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:12 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
And Tunbridge Wells, Conservative since, well, the paleolithic, has gone Lib Dem. The place is literally the byword for middle-class reactionaries.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:12 PM on July 4 [12 favorites]
ArbitraryAndCapricious, the BBC showed an analysis that Labour is hugely down in support - something like 30 or 40 points - in areas that are 20% or more Muslim.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:13 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 8:13 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Does someone have a good link re:SNP? I don’t know their recent history.
posted by nat at 8:21 PM on July 4
posted by nat at 8:21 PM on July 4
Previously the worst two elections in terms of cabinet members losing their seats were 1997 (seven Conservative ministers) and 1945 (five National Government ministers).
Tonight, the Conservatives have already lost twenty.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:28 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Tonight, the Conservatives have already lost twenty.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:28 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Does someone have a good link re:SNP?
There's a lot going on, but that's a recent/ongoing fraud scandal.
posted by Dysk at 8:28 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
There's a lot going on, but that's a recent/ongoing fraud scandal.
posted by Dysk at 8:28 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Dysk's link is broken; this is the correct link: Operation Branchform
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:35 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 8:35 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
As an American, I sit in awe of a political process that involves a High Sheriff of Northumberland in a very large hat.
posted by gingerbeer at 8:36 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by gingerbeer at 8:36 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Okay, I'm starting to see footage of the people gathering to hear results in Sunak's district. And among the candidates gathering to hear the results - one candidate is a dude who looks like he tried to make a Cyberman costume after a kitchen garbage can.
Someone, PLEASE explain that to me.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:37 PM on July 4
Someone, PLEASE explain that to me.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 8:37 PM on July 4
It's Count Binface. Lord Buckethead's successor, since there were intellectual property issues with that persona. There's always a joke candidate who runs against the PM, it's a longstanding tradition.
posted by Dysk at 8:40 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 8:40 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
The fact that the BBC graphic just have "BIN" next to his name is making my night. Morning?
posted by Dysk at 8:41 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Dysk at 8:41 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Sunak has conceded!
posted by Major Clanger at 8:43 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 8:43 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Conceded the General Election, not his seat (which he has won), right?
posted by GeckoDundee at 8:48 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by GeckoDundee at 8:48 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Yes, he actually won his seat by a huge majority (despite some suggestions he might lose) but in his speech came right out and accepted that Labour had won the general election.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:49 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 8:49 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
SNP: it’s a shitshow
Feb 2023: Nicola Sturgeon, their longtime (quite competent) leader, resigned suddenly without warning, then a bunch of incriminating financial stuff came out
March 2023: Subsequent leadership contest between Humza Yousaf (reasonable yet inexperienced) and Kate Forbes (homophobe, TERF) was won by Yousaf
Apr 2024: Yousaf basically overreacted to a couple of fairly minor things that led to him ending the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens. Yousaf was faced with with a vote of no confidence, TERFy Kate Forbes ended up as the deciding vote. She said she’d only support him if he agreed to a bunch of conditions set by her; he refused and resigned. Now Forbes is deputy leader behind John Swinney (“safe pair of hands” who’s not going to put his neck on the line for trans equality, or try and get self-ID through even though a decisive majority of the Scottish Parliament voted for it.)
So Forbes has (fortunately) lost 2 leadership contests but, as deputy leader, is now in a strong position to try again. In addition to being a TERF she’s admitted she would have voted against gay marriage becoming legal. So someone else had better come forward, but I don’t know who that might be.
Meanwhile, I hope Yousaf’s political career isn’t over. He made some bad calls but I think he has potential for the future, and lord knows Scotland needs reasonable no -TERFy politicians.
(I was in Glasgow last April and that’s what I gleaned from talking to people. Happy to get corrections, elucidations, etc from people closer to the situation)
posted by Pallas Athena at 8:58 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
Feb 2023: Nicola Sturgeon, their longtime (quite competent) leader, resigned suddenly without warning, then a bunch of incriminating financial stuff came out
March 2023: Subsequent leadership contest between Humza Yousaf (reasonable yet inexperienced) and Kate Forbes (homophobe, TERF) was won by Yousaf
Apr 2024: Yousaf basically overreacted to a couple of fairly minor things that led to him ending the SNP’s power-sharing deal with the Greens. Yousaf was faced with with a vote of no confidence, TERFy Kate Forbes ended up as the deciding vote. She said she’d only support him if he agreed to a bunch of conditions set by her; he refused and resigned. Now Forbes is deputy leader behind John Swinney (“safe pair of hands” who’s not going to put his neck on the line for trans equality, or try and get self-ID through even though a decisive majority of the Scottish Parliament voted for it.)
So Forbes has (fortunately) lost 2 leadership contests but, as deputy leader, is now in a strong position to try again. In addition to being a TERF she’s admitted she would have voted against gay marriage becoming legal. So someone else had better come forward, but I don’t know who that might be.
Meanwhile, I hope Yousaf’s political career isn’t over. He made some bad calls but I think he has potential for the future, and lord knows Scotland needs reasonable no -TERFy politicians.
(I was in Glasgow last April and that’s what I gleaned from talking to people. Happy to get corrections, elucidations, etc from people closer to the situation)
posted by Pallas Athena at 8:58 PM on July 4 [14 favorites]
326 Labour seats, with 186 to declare.
It's official, Labour now has a majority come what may.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:58 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
It's official, Labour now has a majority come what may.
posted by Major Clanger at 8:58 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
There is a lot to admire in the Count Binface manifesto.
When he recently stood Mayor of London, he beat the Britain First (far right) candidate and was congratulated for doing so by Labour winner Sadiq Khan.
posted by plonkee at 8:58 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
When he recently stood Mayor of London, he beat the Britain First (far right) candidate and was congratulated for doing so by Labour winner Sadiq Khan.
posted by plonkee at 8:58 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Thanks. The results are coming in slowly here (well, slower than watching it on TV anyway).
posted by GeckoDundee at 8:58 PM on July 4
posted by GeckoDundee at 8:58 PM on July 4
Jacob Rees-Mogg is out!
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:00 PM on July 4 [23 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:00 PM on July 4 [23 favorites]
Moggie lost his seat, and Nelson's "ha-ha' played.
Nice.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:00 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Nice.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:00 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
And with the Rt Hon Member for The Regency Era having lost his seat, that is my cue to go to bed.
posted by Major Clanger at 9:09 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Major Clanger at 9:09 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Come on you Lib Dems, get some more get em get em
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:28 PM on July 4
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:28 PM on July 4
Greens too, go go go
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:32 PM on July 4
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:32 PM on July 4
Fuck me, but the SNP have taken a hammering. I'm glad the ReallyRacist party didn't have the night they hoped for.
posted by scruss at 9:43 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by scruss at 9:43 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Wordshore: a badge, a cup of tea AND a biscuit for you!
(I was recently reading one of my old journal entries on a day I was the first voter at my polling place. I love voting. Thank you for voting!)
posted by kristi at 9:43 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
(I was recently reading one of my old journal entries on a day I was the first voter at my polling place. I love voting. Thank you for voting!)
posted by kristi at 9:43 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Greens are on 3 seats and may make ot 4 or even 5 depending on what happens in Brighton. Be sweet if they got more than Reform.
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:45 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:45 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Catching up after a long nap; Gove's old seat went Labour, hah (he wasn't standing). Haunted Victorian pencil Rees-Mogg, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Galloway notable losses. Reform predicted to get no more than 4 seats now. Plus of course, Labour now having a majority come what may, and a predicted majority of 170. With Braverman, Badenoch and her ilk keeping her seat and a number of one-nation tories already quit or lost, I think we're likely to see the new leader of the Tory party be from the nutball wing in an attempt to chase Reform voters; Truss for shadow Chancellor, maybe? Christ.
This is also a weird feeling for me; a very similar landslide to Blair in '97, yet very little hope for substantial positive change in the near future, the recent swing to TERFyness, a complete absence of how they're going to tackle the massive public finance blackhole, and the green pledges watered down into very little. The lib dems were the main challenger to the tories in my constituency but still a way behind, and on current predictions aren't close, likely keeping my record at 100% for never voting for a winning candidate.
Digressing a bit into the personal, I and my wife also work in private schools (mine is a small one specialising in ESL and SEN kids who just can't get the support they need in state schools). I do get the deserved public anger over the Eton-Oxbridge-money&power pipeline. VAT on fees is one of the very few pledges Labour've actually stuck hard to, yet places like Eton will be barely affected, as they're big enough to claim most of the VAT back. It will be devastating to a school like mine, as the mostly middle-class parents just don't have the money (we've already had a huge chunk giving notice), so we're going to have to absorb much of it and cut staff or risk closing; below a certain level of pupils, we just won't be able to cover fixed costs and stay open. The average state school will get an extra half a teacher, assuming Labour's predictions of less than 7% of private pupils going back to state; we're running much higher than that. At best, that means years more of 0% pay rises (and a big mortgage jump coming soon), and losing most of my team to greener pastures; there's also a significant chance we're both going to lose our jobs, and with 50 just round the corner I'm *really* not looking forward to moving to try to find something new after 20+ years in the same place, even if the pay has slowly dropped to well-below average due to recent inflation - it's not like IT jobs grow on trees round here. I know we're still far better off than many - we have a roof, and food, and can usually afford to turn the heating on, but I'd hoped for a little more at this stage in my life than just about staying afloat with 2 kids (obviously in state), and my health is not great. If there was a genuine hope that things are about to massively improve for say, the NHS, council funding, the cost of living, the shit in the water, or better support for those in absolute poverty living from food banks, I'd at least feel that losing our livelihoods is for the greater good, but that doesn't seem on the cards any time soon.
So yeah. Change. 🎉
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:58 PM on July 4 [11 favorites]
This is also a weird feeling for me; a very similar landslide to Blair in '97, yet very little hope for substantial positive change in the near future, the recent swing to TERFyness, a complete absence of how they're going to tackle the massive public finance blackhole, and the green pledges watered down into very little. The lib dems were the main challenger to the tories in my constituency but still a way behind, and on current predictions aren't close, likely keeping my record at 100% for never voting for a winning candidate.
Digressing a bit into the personal, I and my wife also work in private schools (mine is a small one specialising in ESL and SEN kids who just can't get the support they need in state schools). I do get the deserved public anger over the Eton-Oxbridge-money&power pipeline. VAT on fees is one of the very few pledges Labour've actually stuck hard to, yet places like Eton will be barely affected, as they're big enough to claim most of the VAT back. It will be devastating to a school like mine, as the mostly middle-class parents just don't have the money (we've already had a huge chunk giving notice), so we're going to have to absorb much of it and cut staff or risk closing; below a certain level of pupils, we just won't be able to cover fixed costs and stay open. The average state school will get an extra half a teacher, assuming Labour's predictions of less than 7% of private pupils going back to state; we're running much higher than that. At best, that means years more of 0% pay rises (and a big mortgage jump coming soon), and losing most of my team to greener pastures; there's also a significant chance we're both going to lose our jobs, and with 50 just round the corner I'm *really* not looking forward to moving to try to find something new after 20+ years in the same place, even if the pay has slowly dropped to well-below average due to recent inflation - it's not like IT jobs grow on trees round here. I know we're still far better off than many - we have a roof, and food, and can usually afford to turn the heating on, but I'd hoped for a little more at this stage in my life than just about staying afloat with 2 kids (obviously in state), and my health is not great. If there was a genuine hope that things are about to massively improve for say, the NHS, council funding, the cost of living, the shit in the water, or better support for those in absolute poverty living from food banks, I'd at least feel that losing our livelihoods is for the greater good, but that doesn't seem on the cards any time soon.
So yeah. Change. 🎉
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 9:58 PM on July 4 [11 favorites]
Posie Parker got all of 196 votes, which honestly seems high for Bristol
posted by mbo at 10:01 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by mbo at 10:01 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Sunak seems to have retained his seat.
posted by interogative mood at 10:12 PM on July 4
posted by interogative mood at 10:12 PM on July 4
Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross loses to SNP, lol. Begone!
posted by scruss at 10:14 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by scruss at 10:14 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
YAYAYAY Congrats UK - sorry you got stuck with Farage, though. Good on Corbin for getting his revenge.
Also - keep up the pressure to stop Starmer's Labour from being as atrocious as Blairites.
I see nothing in him that is anything more than typical neoliberalism (which is still better than the utter slash and burn of Tory hell; but you deserve so much better than slowed destruction - we all do (let's hope this is a harbinger for France and the US in the upcoming elections)).
I worry about the TERFism in Labour, but that seems to be a widespread problem and cultural war that cuts across all parties, AFAICT, and must be vigorously fought regardless.
At least the maggots munching on Thatcher's corpse may find it a little more sweet tonight.
posted by symbioid at 10:20 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Also - keep up the pressure to stop Starmer's Labour from being as atrocious as Blairites.
I see nothing in him that is anything more than typical neoliberalism (which is still better than the utter slash and burn of Tory hell; but you deserve so much better than slowed destruction - we all do (let's hope this is a harbinger for France and the US in the upcoming elections)).
I worry about the TERFism in Labour, but that seems to be a widespread problem and cultural war that cuts across all parties, AFAICT, and must be vigorously fought regardless.
At least the maggots munching on Thatcher's corpse may find it a little more sweet tonight.
posted by symbioid at 10:20 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Alliance winning my district has been amazing news to wake up to.
posted by mrzarquon at 10:22 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
posted by mrzarquon at 10:22 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Brighton Pavilion has returned Sian Berry, so the Green Party now have four seats.
Which means that they right now (and may well be when all counts are in) have as many seats as Reform.
The party that receives huge funding from men who don't even choose to live in the UK has achieved no more seats than a party which for the most part raises funds by selling miniature yurts made from tofu. Very satisfying.
posted by reynir at 10:23 PM on July 4 [20 favorites]
Which means that they right now (and may well be when all counts are in) have as many seats as Reform.
The party that receives huge funding from men who don't even choose to live in the UK has achieved no more seats than a party which for the most part raises funds by selling miniature yurts made from tofu. Very satisfying.
posted by reynir at 10:23 PM on July 4 [20 favorites]
“James Cleverly holds Braintree” is a statement that should be busted by Trading Standards.
posted by scruss at 10:26 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
posted by scruss at 10:26 PM on July 4 [9 favorites]
Wait Wordshore was your yurt made of tofu?
posted by nat at 10:32 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by nat at 10:32 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Sinn Féin held their seven seats in Northern Ireland, and apparently the count is so close between SF and the DUP in East Londonderry that there may be a recount. The DUP will probably hold it but the fact that it's so close should be terrifying to them. The seat has been held by Unionists since the constituency was created in 1983.
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:34 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:34 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Awake. The BBC is on. It looks like Liz Truss has been humiliated in her seat.
posted by Wordshore at 10:40 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 10:40 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
While I'm sad about SNP's drubbing, it gives me some comfort that Reform wasn't a thing in Scotland. They seem to have been in third place in a few constituencies, and further down the list in many more.
Labour just hit 401 seats, so I should go back to bed now.
posted by scruss at 10:41 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Labour just hit 401 seats, so I should go back to bed now.
posted by scruss at 10:41 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
Couldn't stay awake beyond 1.30am, but back again. Damn, Hunt is still in. But Shapps is gone, Mordaunt is gone. And a "strong indication" that Truss is out!
Scalps, I want scalps...
posted by rory at 10:43 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Scalps, I want scalps...
posted by rory at 10:43 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Looks as if Truss has bottled even turning up for the results.
posted by reynir at 10:45 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by reynir at 10:45 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
IDS retained his seat because the former Labour candidate liked a tweet. Stupid FPP and stupid Labour party bollocks.
Why the hell has the BBC booked Tim Montgomery?
Truss hasn't turned up to the declaration of her own seat!
posted by rory at 10:46 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Why the hell has the BBC booked Tim Montgomery?
Truss hasn't turned up to the declaration of her own seat!
posted by rory at 10:46 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
There she is.
posted by rory at 10:47 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 10:47 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
TRUSS OUT!
posted by rory at 10:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:49 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
Reform splits the vote and Truss loses by 630 votes!
posted by rory at 10:49 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:49 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
Lettuce rejoice!
posted by rory at 10:50 PM on July 4 [26 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:50 PM on July 4 [26 favorites]
Who will open new pork markets now?
posted by Marticus at 10:50 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
posted by Marticus at 10:50 PM on July 4 [3 favorites]
WOKE DEEP STATE WOKERY AT WOKEY WORK AGAINST THE VALIANT PORK MARKETS.
posted by reynir at 10:52 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by reynir at 10:52 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Live by the brutally unfair electoral system, die by the brutally unfair electoral system. Bet the Tories wish they'd backed AV in the 2011 referendum now.
posted by rory at 10:54 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
posted by rory at 10:54 PM on July 4 [6 favorites]
500 of 635 seats now lost. Well done, Tories.
*golfclap*
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:54 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
*golfclap*
posted by los pantalones del muerte at 10:54 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Quick overview:
Labour wins—only 20 seats left to declare. On track for a majority of 166.
Highest number of Lib Dems seats since 1923 at 69 (so far).
Ten cabinet ministers out. Tories have lost largest number of ministers ever.
A former PM (who, let's remember, won the leadership on a vote of party members) is out.
Record number of Green seats (4).
Farage, sadly, becomes an MP on his 8th attempt.
posted by rory at 10:59 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
Labour wins—only 20 seats left to declare. On track for a majority of 166.
Highest number of Lib Dems seats since 1923 at 69 (so far).
Ten cabinet ministers out. Tories have lost largest number of ministers ever.
A former PM (who, let's remember, won the leadership on a vote of party members) is out.
Record number of Green seats (4).
Farage, sadly, becomes an MP on his 8th attempt.
posted by rory at 10:59 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
There's officially a recount underway in East Londonderry.
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:59 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:59 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Jacob Rees-Mogg out too? It really is X-mas!
posted by rory at 11:02 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by rory at 11:02 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
It’s frustrating still that SF won’t actually do anything with the Derry seat if they win it.
The voices were sending to Westminster are now mostly further right than the DUP were sending.
posted by mrzarquon at 11:05 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
The voices were sending to Westminster are now mostly further right than the DUP were sending.
posted by mrzarquon at 11:05 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Currently turn-out's <60% which appears to be the lowest ever unless something really wacky happened before 1970. Cons obviously cratered, losing 20% of popular vote while Labour gained a measly 2%. Be nice if parties could get their heads out of their asses and figure out how to motivate and organize people to actually vote for something by voting for them rather than hoping the other guy slipping in his own shit will carry the day.
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:05 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by Alvy Ampersand at 11:05 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
It’s frustrating still that SF won’t actually do anything with the Derry seat if they win it.
I mean, they'll do constituent services! They just won't take their seats in Westminster!
posted by adrienneleigh at 11:13 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
I mean, they'll do constituent services! They just won't take their seats in Westminster!
posted by adrienneleigh at 11:13 PM on July 4 [5 favorites]
With 11 still to declare:
Con 118, Labour 410, SNP 8, LD 70, DUP 4, SF 7, PC 4, Green 4, Reform 4
Utterly extraordinary. A reminder of a decade of general election results:
2019: Con 365, Labour 203, SNP 48, LD 11, DUP 8, SF 7, PC 4, Green 1, Brexit 0
2017: Con 318, Labour 262, SNP 35, LD 12, DUP 10, SF 7, PC 4, Green 1, UKIP 0
2015: Con 331, Labour 232, SNP 56, LD 8, DUP 8, SF 4, PC 3, Green 1, UKIP 1
posted by rory at 11:25 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Con 118, Labour 410, SNP 8, LD 70, DUP 4, SF 7, PC 4, Green 4, Reform 4
Utterly extraordinary. A reminder of a decade of general election results:
2019: Con 365, Labour 203, SNP 48, LD 11, DUP 8, SF 7, PC 4, Green 1, Brexit 0
2017: Con 318, Labour 262, SNP 35, LD 12, DUP 10, SF 7, PC 4, Green 1, UKIP 0
2015: Con 331, Labour 232, SNP 56, LD 8, DUP 8, SF 4, PC 3, Green 1, UKIP 1
posted by rory at 11:25 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
Labour, Lib Dem and Green combined have more than doubled their number of seats in Parliament in the space of a single term. 484 vs 241. If we include the SNP and Corbyn's independent seat, the overall difference isn't quite as dramatic: 493 vs 297.
posted by rory at 11:34 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
posted by rory at 11:34 PM on July 4 [4 favorites]
A boundary change moved the town where I live from the somewhat urban and traditionally Labour-supporting Newport East constituency into the largely rural and hitherto Conservative one of Monmouthshire, which was among the Labour gains yesterday.
A 10k Tory majority became a ca. 4k Labour one. Had there been no Reform candidate to split the right-wing vote, the Conservatives might have held it by a narrow margin.
posted by misteraitch at 11:41 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
A 10k Tory majority became a ca. 4k Labour one. Had there been no Reform candidate to split the right-wing vote, the Conservatives might have held it by a narrow margin.
posted by misteraitch at 11:41 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
BBC recap of Tory scalps going on. Therese Coffey and Liam Fox also out! Oh, joyous day.
posted by rory at 11:44 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 11:44 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
Commentators sounding surprised that vote shares don't align with seat shares. No shit. First past the post, innit.
posted by rory at 11:45 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
posted by rory at 11:45 PM on July 4 [8 favorites]
Steve Baker (outgoing Tory, arch-Brexiter/ERG): "Thank God I'm free. It's over, and I'm glad."
posted by rory at 11:47 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 11:47 PM on July 4 [1 favorite]
The Tories lost this election, not because of all their screw-ups, but because Reform split the vote on the right. Labour's vote share was unchanged in England and down in Wales, although up in Scotland because of the SNP's own woes.
However. Labour's share of the vote was still 33.8%, the Lib Dems' 12.2%, Green 6.8%. Britain is a progressive country with a broken electoral system. Keep that in mind throughout all of the talk in coming days about Reform's 14.3% of the vote (and the Tories' 23.7%).
posted by rory at 11:57 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
However. Labour's share of the vote was still 33.8%, the Lib Dems' 12.2%, Green 6.8%. Britain is a progressive country with a broken electoral system. Keep that in mind throughout all of the talk in coming days about Reform's 14.3% of the vote (and the Tories' 23.7%).
posted by rory at 11:57 PM on July 4 [7 favorites]
> I mean, they'll do constituent services! They just won't take their seats in Westminster!
I know they're just running out the clock until a unification vote, but they can still accomplish more for their constituents by being in London and using the floor. If anything they can get more airtime.
Seeing a Non Paisley in North Antrim for the first time ever is huge and subjecting Westminster to a TUV party member as a result isn't half bad.
posted by mrzarquon at 11:59 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
I know they're just running out the clock until a unification vote, but they can still accomplish more for their constituents by being in London and using the floor. If anything they can get more airtime.
Seeing a Non Paisley in North Antrim for the first time ever is huge and subjecting Westminster to a TUV party member as a result isn't half bad.
posted by mrzarquon at 11:59 PM on July 4 [2 favorites]
The DUP holds East Londonderry by 179 votes after the recount. It's astonishing that it was that close, though.
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:26 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 12:26 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
There’s little lipstick for this pig - assessment from Scottish Independence supporting blogger Weegingerdug. If you want a concise assessment of what went wrong for the SNP and what they, and other "Yes" supporters need to do about it - this would be a good starting point.
posted by rongorongo at 12:35 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 12:35 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Congratulations all!
There is a huge job ahead -- I wonder if it can even be done. Not that I doubt the competence of a Starmer cabinet. I'm just wondering wether the people have the patience for the years of reconstruction needed.
And while this was expected, it's really nice that not all of Europe is being taken over by the hard right. Gives you hope.
posted by mumimor at 12:35 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
There is a huge job ahead -- I wonder if it can even be done. Not that I doubt the competence of a Starmer cabinet. I'm just wondering wether the people have the patience for the years of reconstruction needed.
And while this was expected, it's really nice that not all of Europe is being taken over by the hard right. Gives you hope.
posted by mumimor at 12:35 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
It's going to be fucking crazy watching the right pivot to wanting proportional representation at whiplash inducing speed.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:38 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 12:38 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
> It’s frustrating still that SF won’t actually do anything with the Derry seat if they win it.
don’t blame sf for not taking their seats, blame the monarchy for existing
this is not a bombastic lowercase pronouncement, it’s just a statement that is correct
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 12:47 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
don’t blame sf for not taking their seats, blame the monarchy for existing
this is not a bombastic lowercase pronouncement, it’s just a statement that is correct
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 12:47 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
*sigh*
Oh well. At least it didn't flip to Reform.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 12:59 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
*sigh*
Oh well. At least it didn't flip to Reform.
posted by ManyLeggedCreature at 12:59 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Hendon went Labour by 15 votes. Notably both Tory and Labour votes dropped. Mostly in favour of reform and greens.
posted by biffa at 1:05 AM on July 5
posted by biffa at 1:05 AM on July 5
If anyone here finds themselves with a Reform MP, take heart: now is your chance to collect receipts and send letters to help sabotage them. You can do it.
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 1:05 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 1:05 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
The Tories didn't do that badly from FPTP, 24% of the vote, 19% of the seats by interim data.
Labour got 34% of the vote and 64% of the seats so they must be pretty happy.
Interesting to compare Keir Starmer to Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and 2017 though.
Starmer got (after 645/650 seats declared) 9,650,254 votes on a 34% share.
Corbyn in 2019 got 10,269,051 votes and 32.1%
Corbyn in 2017 got 12,877,918 and 40.0%.
Starmer had the great timing to coincide with the Tory collapse, the rise of Reform, and the implosion of the SNP. That vote and vote share would probably have not got a majority in most elections.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:07 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
Labour got 34% of the vote and 64% of the seats so they must be pretty happy.
Interesting to compare Keir Starmer to Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and 2017 though.
Starmer got (after 645/650 seats declared) 9,650,254 votes on a 34% share.
Corbyn in 2019 got 10,269,051 votes and 32.1%
Corbyn in 2017 got 12,877,918 and 40.0%.
Starmer had the great timing to coincide with the Tory collapse, the rise of Reform, and the implosion of the SNP. That vote and vote share would probably have not got a majority in most elections.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:07 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
Yup; rest of the county the tories were evicted by Lib Dem and Labour MPs, but ours hung on by 1500 votes; which considering the guy won 65% last time is pretty squeaky. Reform a distant 3rd and Labour 4th, down with the Greens; likely substantial tactical voting going on as Labour share was down considerably. (I wonder how much the unofficial lib dem/labour pact not to campaign in each other's target seats affected labour's overall vote share?)
At least our MP is a moderate as far as tories go; obviously still followed the party line in Parliament votes so not *good*, but not a gammon frother by all accounts, so could be worse.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:09 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Yup; rest of the county the tories were evicted by Lib Dem and Labour MPs, but ours hung on by 1500 votes; which considering the guy won 65% last time is pretty squeaky. Reform a distant 3rd and Labour 4th, down with the Greens; likely substantial tactical voting going on as Labour share was down considerably. (I wonder how much the unofficial lib dem/labour pact not to campaign in each other's target seats affected labour's overall vote share?)
At least our MP is a moderate as far as tories go; obviously still followed the party line in Parliament votes so not *good*, but not a gammon frother by all accounts, so could be worse.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 1:09 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
> don’t blame sf for not taking their seats, blame the monarchy for existing
Somedays I honestly don't know if they'll be able to exist without that excuse.
posted by mrzarquon at 1:34 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Somedays I honestly don't know if they'll be able to exist without that excuse.
posted by mrzarquon at 1:34 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Hendon went Labour by 15 votes.
...and that's why deciding to sit on your ass at home because you can't be bothered to vote is such a bad idea.
Interesting to compare Keir Starmer to Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and 2017 though.
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019. Starmer got them back into power just five years later. That was an astonishing achievement on his part, and it would be nice if we could all muster the grace to acknowledge it.
posted by Paul Slade at 1:36 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
...and that's why deciding to sit on your ass at home because you can't be bothered to vote is such a bad idea.
Interesting to compare Keir Starmer to Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 and 2017 though.
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019. Starmer got them back into power just five years later. That was an astonishing achievement on his part, and it would be nice if we could all muster the grace to acknowledge it.
posted by Paul Slade at 1:36 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross loses to SNP, lol. Begone!
I watched him being interviewed on Channel 4 early in the evening (i.e. before midnight), and Krishnan Guru-Murthy was asking him about whether David Duguid was wishing him the best in his seat (as he'd been the sitting MP before an illness that took him to hospital in May). And Ross pretends not to understand when he's being asked “has David Dogood wished you well” at least twice, and when Guru-Murthy clarifies with “the MP who was in the seat before you”, he says “David Dewkit! Yes, he's in hospital”, and Guru-Murthy presses again and Ross says “Yes, we spoke. Of course he wishes me well” unconvincingly.
So yes, Douglas Ross is, eh, not the nicest.
posted by ambrosen at 1:40 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I watched him being interviewed on Channel 4 early in the evening (i.e. before midnight), and Krishnan Guru-Murthy was asking him about whether David Duguid was wishing him the best in his seat (as he'd been the sitting MP before an illness that took him to hospital in May). And Ross pretends not to understand when he's being asked “has David Dogood wished you well” at least twice, and when Guru-Murthy clarifies with “the MP who was in the seat before you”, he says “David Dewkit! Yes, he's in hospital”, and Guru-Murthy presses again and Ross says “Yes, we spoke. Of course he wishes me well” unconvincingly.
So yes, Douglas Ross is, eh, not the nicest.
posted by ambrosen at 1:40 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019. Starmer got them back into power just five years later. It would be nice if we could all muster the grace to acknowledge that.
Sure, but the version of Labour Corbyn led was one whose policies I largely agreed with, while the version of Labour Starmer is leading is one whose policies turn my teeth into the grimace emoji on reading them, while still acknowledging that they're better than Tories, in the same way that something can be better than nothing while still not actually being all that good ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Someone described today's Labour as "a party John Major could comfortably lead" to me recently, and unfortunately I wildly agree.
posted by terretu at 1:41 AM on July 5 [25 favorites]
Sure, but the version of Labour Corbyn led was one whose policies I largely agreed with, while the version of Labour Starmer is leading is one whose policies turn my teeth into the grimace emoji on reading them, while still acknowledging that they're better than Tories, in the same way that something can be better than nothing while still not actually being all that good ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Someone described today's Labour as "a party John Major could comfortably lead" to me recently, and unfortunately I wildly agree.
posted by terretu at 1:41 AM on July 5 [25 favorites]
The window seemingly freely slides right but needs to be dragged back to the left with both hands.
posted by Molesome at 1:44 AM on July 5 [11 favorites]
posted by Molesome at 1:44 AM on July 5 [11 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
I can actually say both yes and no. I'm down in Woking this week (which is why I voted by post) and as predicted it finally went Lib Deb after 74 years of being solidly Conservative. However, my home constituency of West Worcestershire stayed Tory, although for that to have fallen I doubt if there would have been any blue left on the map at all. (Also, despite the tactical voting sites all changing their position for West Worcs from 'too close to call' to 'vote Labour', the Lib Dems actually came well ahead of Labour.)
posted by Major Clanger at 1:46 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
I can actually say both yes and no. I'm down in Woking this week (which is why I voted by post) and as predicted it finally went Lib Deb after 74 years of being solidly Conservative. However, my home constituency of West Worcestershire stayed Tory, although for that to have fallen I doubt if there would have been any blue left on the map at all. (Also, despite the tactical voting sites all changing their position for West Worcs from 'too close to call' to 'vote Labour', the Lib Dems actually came well ahead of Labour.)
posted by Major Clanger at 1:46 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019. Starmer got them back into power just five years later.
Apart from “would you nationalise sausages” and “nationalising broadband”, the thing that I remember from the 2019 campaign was Corbyn's plan to plant a billion trees, which was unanimously ridiculed as being an impossibly large number in the media, despite one person on a shoestring budget managing to get 100,000 in since he vowed to change his life in despair at the 2019 results.
So what I'm saying is that Corbyn's failures weren't about policy. They were, I imagine, about overstepping the clubby lines of journalists and some other parts of the establishment.
posted by ambrosen at 1:50 AM on July 5 [24 favorites]
Apart from “would you nationalise sausages” and “nationalising broadband”, the thing that I remember from the 2019 campaign was Corbyn's plan to plant a billion trees, which was unanimously ridiculed as being an impossibly large number in the media, despite one person on a shoestring budget managing to get 100,000 in since he vowed to change his life in despair at the 2019 results.
So what I'm saying is that Corbyn's failures weren't about policy. They were, I imagine, about overstepping the clubby lines of journalists and some other parts of the establishment.
posted by ambrosen at 1:50 AM on July 5 [24 favorites]
That vote and vote share would probably have not got a majority in most elections.
While this is true, my suspicion is that Labour was actually very strategic about getting out the vote by region, which, unfortunately, is what you have to do in FPTP. I assume that Labour calculated it could handle losing some vote share to the Left in safe seats (which the trebling of support for the Greens seems to have indicated they did), if that meant upticks in more marginal areas. Basically, I think Labour played the game by the rules as they've been written and did extremely well. Whether this sort thing can be done twice and from a position of incumbency is another matter...
posted by nangua at 1:56 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
While this is true, my suspicion is that Labour was actually very strategic about getting out the vote by region, which, unfortunately, is what you have to do in FPTP. I assume that Labour calculated it could handle losing some vote share to the Left in safe seats (which the trebling of support for the Greens seems to have indicated they did), if that meant upticks in more marginal areas. Basically, I think Labour played the game by the rules as they've been written and did extremely well. Whether this sort thing can be done twice and from a position of incumbency is another matter...
posted by nangua at 1:56 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
Also yes, despite the polling, despite the candidate being basically unknown, despite the candidate's name.
We're hoping to move to the Bristol area next year, and I was delighted to see that there's basically no chance we'll end up with a Tory MP, even if we can't afford the Green streets of central Bristol. I am so done with living in Cuntingdonshire.
posted by terretu at 1:58 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Also yes, despite the polling, despite the candidate being basically unknown, despite the candidate's name.
We're hoping to move to the Bristol area next year, and I was delighted to see that there's basically no chance we'll end up with a Tory MP, even if we can't afford the Green streets of central Bristol. I am so done with living in Cuntingdonshire.
posted by terretu at 1:58 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Wow, it's a very strange feeling to wake up after a GE and/or significant vote and not feel a crushing sense of dread and horror. A sad state of affairs when "it could be so much worse" is worth celebrating, but nevertheless. This morning, I'll take what I can get.
posted by fight or flight at 1:59 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 1:59 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
Yes, West Suffolk is still Conservative with a ~3000 vote majority (down from 20k). A bit wider win than the polls were predicting but not too surprising.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:16 AM on July 5
Yes, West Suffolk is still Conservative with a ~3000 vote majority (down from 20k). A bit wider win than the polls were predicting but not too surprising.
posted by antiwiggle at 2:16 AM on July 5
I think they also gave up a good chunk of votes in places where the lib Dems were best places and vice versa; both parties did relatively poorly on vote share but outstandingly on seats. Labour also pulled a lot of resources and campaigners from their safe seats and non-target Tory seats to get out the vote where it mattered most, at the expense of not getting their voters out more widely.
Under FPTP that sort of tactical work can really pay dividends, as it has in this case, even if it sacrifices total vote share, which after all achieves nothing in itself. So that Labour and Lib Dems didn't get huge vote shares compared to past campaigns can be deceiving; that wasn't their goal, and deciding how say, a future theoretical PR election (or if Corbyn had been standing) would go on these results is meaningless.
Yes, Starmer definitely got lucky with people having had enough of the Tories but that was also true with May and Johnson, both looked weak. It's a near universal rule in British politics that you need to look like a government in waiting to knock off an unpopular government, and that, plus a much better ground game (to use an American term) is where Starmer truly succeeded and Milliband and Corbyn didn't.
Now the job becomes holding our MP's feet to the fire on the things we care about. It's the public that change what politicians want, not the other way round.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:17 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Under FPTP that sort of tactical work can really pay dividends, as it has in this case, even if it sacrifices total vote share, which after all achieves nothing in itself. So that Labour and Lib Dems didn't get huge vote shares compared to past campaigns can be deceiving; that wasn't their goal, and deciding how say, a future theoretical PR election (or if Corbyn had been standing) would go on these results is meaningless.
Yes, Starmer definitely got lucky with people having had enough of the Tories but that was also true with May and Johnson, both looked weak. It's a near universal rule in British politics that you need to look like a government in waiting to knock off an unpopular government, and that, plus a much better ground game (to use an American term) is where Starmer truly succeeded and Milliband and Corbyn didn't.
Now the job becomes holding our MP's feet to the fire on the things we care about. It's the public that change what politicians want, not the other way round.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:17 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019. Starmer got them back into power just five years later. It would be nice if we could all muster the grace to acknowledge that.
I think it’s important to push back against this narrative. Starmer didn’t whip the Labour Party into shape, but he did make it into a vehicle for power that didn’t terrify the markets; the victory was pretty much assured by Sunak’s and the Tory party’s unheard of levels of unpopularity.
posted by The River Ivel at 2:23 AM on July 5 [18 favorites]
I think it’s important to push back against this narrative. Starmer didn’t whip the Labour Party into shape, but he did make it into a vehicle for power that didn’t terrify the markets; the victory was pretty much assured by Sunak’s and the Tory party’s unheard of levels of unpopularity.
posted by The River Ivel at 2:23 AM on July 5 [18 favorites]
Umbrellas on stand-by - it's raining on and off in the UK this morning and there are a number of announcements to be made outdoors.
posted by Molesome at 2:27 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Molesome at 2:27 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Going down like ninepins
Marr:
posted by flabdablet at 2:30 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
Marr:
My question is why, do you think, you're going down like ninepins?HVP:
Oh, because we've abandoned the, um, core vote of the Conservative Party, which has gone off to Reform. We have no absolute right to any particular, ah, voter set, and the people most, er, supportive of core conservative principles are the ones who seem to have left us in the largest numbers.Core conservative principles: grifting and racism. Which, I mean, obviously, but it's rare to hear a self-styled conservative admit it.
posted by flabdablet at 2:30 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
Somedays I honestly don't know if they'll be able to exist without that excuse.
mrzarquon: they seem to be doing fine in the Republic of Ireland!
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:06 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
mrzarquon: they seem to be doing fine in the Republic of Ireland!
posted by adrienneleigh at 3:06 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
Yep. Priti Patel remains and is no doubt polishing her leadership bid as we speak.
posted by penguin pie at 3:14 AM on July 5
Yep. Priti Patel remains and is no doubt polishing her leadership bid as we speak.
posted by penguin pie at 3:14 AM on July 5
Not surprisingly Sunak is resigning as Conservative Leader, although not until arrangements are in place to select his successor. This will mean the fourth Tory leadership contest in five years, although from a heavily depleted field after last night.
(By the way, in an earlier comment I said that 20 Tory ministers had lost their seats. I was going by a comment elsewhere that turned out to be wrong; as far as I can tell it's actually 12, but that is still way past the 1997 record of 7 in one go.)
posted by Major Clanger at 3:20 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
(By the way, in an earlier comment I said that 20 Tory ministers had lost their seats. I was going by a comment elsewhere that turned out to be wrong; as far as I can tell it's actually 12, but that is still way past the 1997 record of 7 in one go.)
posted by Major Clanger at 3:20 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Fabricant out! Gullis out! And of course Tories like Andrea Leadsom and Michael Gove bailed out before they could be kicked out. Let's also mark the failed attempt by former Tory and omnipresent Brexiter Andrew Bridgen to win as an independent.
Patel and Braverman not out. Boooo.
posted by rory at 3:22 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Patel and Braverman not out. Boooo.
posted by rory at 3:22 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Technically, as Sunak has formally resigned and Starmer hasn't (yet) met the King, we're without government.
Unsure if this means we're briefly living in a monastic fiefdom, anarchy, or some other unregulated territory? Does this mean I can steal posh biscuits from Waitrose with no consequences?
posted by Wordshore at 3:24 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
Unsure if this means we're briefly living in a monastic fiefdom, anarchy, or some other unregulated territory? Does this mean I can steal posh biscuits from Waitrose with no consequences?
posted by Wordshore at 3:24 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
I'm cautiously optimistic over the news that Starmer means to appoint his entire cabinet today and get them working as soon as possible. I hope the early momentum of a successful election means they give some things a much needed boot up the arse and we see at least some good before we fall back into the usual British "and what has this Labour government ever done for us" state of mind.
posted by fight or flight at 3:27 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by fight or flight at 3:27 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Graham Norton never sleeps, wordshore. Consider your next actions carefully.
posted by lalochezia at 3:27 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 3:27 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
From Reddit, Jacob Rees-Mogg standing next to man wearing a baked beans balaclava after losing the election.
An explainer in the comments:
An explainer in the comments:
Yes, Joke candidates are common in the UK as every party has the right to be accepted and represented.posted by fight or flight at 3:29 AM on July 5 [39 favorites]
His name is Jacob Rees-Mogg, an MP for North East Somerset since 2010.
I have been reliably informed by several people as to who is ruling the country in this interregnum between Sunak and Starmer.
posted by Wordshore at 3:31 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
posted by Wordshore at 3:31 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
Does this mean I can steal posh biscuits
We’re still a monarchy, so hands off the Duchy Originals
posted by Phanx at 3:32 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
We’re still a monarchy, so hands off the Duchy Originals
posted by Phanx at 3:32 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
> they seem to be doing fine in the Republic of Ireland!
They've never held the majority in the Dail. They're perpetually the opposition party, so haven't had to fully execute on and be held responsible for any of the promises they've made. Don't get me wrong, they've had influence and political power, and I sorely hope Mary Lou McDonald can actually get in power to deliver on the housing promises and reforms that would defuse a lot of the anti-immigration tensions in the South that are giving rise to the fascists (who actually gained local council seats in their recent election). The downside of Irish nationalism is that a lot of the same groundwork that went into "We Ourselves" can be repurposed by fascists to become "Ireland for the Irish".
posted by mrzarquon at 3:35 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
They've never held the majority in the Dail. They're perpetually the opposition party, so haven't had to fully execute on and be held responsible for any of the promises they've made. Don't get me wrong, they've had influence and political power, and I sorely hope Mary Lou McDonald can actually get in power to deliver on the housing promises and reforms that would defuse a lot of the anti-immigration tensions in the South that are giving rise to the fascists (who actually gained local council seats in their recent election). The downside of Irish nationalism is that a lot of the same groundwork that went into "We Ourselves" can be repurposed by fascists to become "Ireland for the Irish".
posted by mrzarquon at 3:35 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Corbyn led Labour to a calamitous defeat in 2019.
The big mistake that Jeremy Corbyn made was to back a plan that would abolish private schools. Most of the media in the UK are products of the private school system, so they unleashed every tool at their disposal to sink his reputation. It is a textbook case of the media wielding their power.
Jeremy Corbyn was re-elected in Islington North yesterday as a independent having been excluded from the Labour party. In polling he was 14% behind, largely because most constituents did not know that he was no longer the Labour candidate.
posted by Lanark at 3:52 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
The big mistake that Jeremy Corbyn made was to back a plan that would abolish private schools. Most of the media in the UK are products of the private school system, so they unleashed every tool at their disposal to sink his reputation. It is a textbook case of the media wielding their power.
Jeremy Corbyn was re-elected in Islington North yesterday as a independent having been excluded from the Labour party. In polling he was 14% behind, largely because most constituents did not know that he was no longer the Labour candidate.
posted by Lanark at 3:52 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
Related to the above, I saw a note last night on the Guardian's coverage that Starmer's cabinet will be the first in decades to be majority (over 70%) state school educated, and many from working class backgrounds. Sunak's cabinet had a majority of private school educated ministers, but Starmer's will actually represent the landscape of Britain for the first time in a while.
I'm very interested to see what that influence will have on their policies, especially in education and social care.
posted by fight or flight at 4:00 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
I'm very interested to see what that influence will have on their policies, especially in education and social care.
posted by fight or flight at 4:00 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
90% state school educated, 84% comprehensive schools, which is almost reflective of the overall national balance, but still a little short.
posted by ambrosen at 4:04 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
posted by ambrosen at 4:04 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
In my constituency it was a Tory win, but with a greatly reduced majority, down from 22,000 in 2019 to just over 6,000.
As I said above, if we'd had a Reform candidate, it might well have been a different outcome.
posted by essexjan at 4:09 AM on July 5
As I said above, if we'd had a Reform candidate, it might well have been a different outcome.
posted by essexjan at 4:09 AM on July 5
Starmer is now formally Prime Minister (pictured) so the Interregnum is over. I didn't get myself organised quickly enough to steal biscuits :-(
According to the BBC, Keir is the "7th Labour Prime Minister" and "Britain's 58th Prime Minister".
posted by Wordshore at 4:22 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
According to the BBC, Keir is the "7th Labour Prime Minister" and "Britain's 58th Prime Minister".
posted by Wordshore at 4:22 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Moderates Win a Round in Britain — But a Larger Battle Against Extremism Looms. NYT, Rory Stewart
The analysis is spot-on. Rory Stewart is a unicorn; an ex-tory with a brain and at least some form of heart.
posted by lalochezia at 4:24 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
The analysis is spot-on. Rory Stewart is a unicorn; an ex-tory with a brain and at least some form of heart.
posted by lalochezia at 4:24 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
in an earlier comment I said that 20 Tory ministers had lost their seats. I was going by a comment elsewhere that turned out to be wrong; as far as I can tell it's actually 12
The BBC has a page showing cabinet losses in a handy graphic (scroll down).
Only two seats are yet to declare. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is a new constituency, so hard to call, but might be SNP, might be Lib Dem—we'll see. South Basildon and East Thurrock was a Tory seat but had a Reform candidate standing, and given it's in Essex might split and go to Labour.
posted by rory at 4:29 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
The BBC has a page showing cabinet losses in a handy graphic (scroll down).
Only two seats are yet to declare. Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire is a new constituency, so hard to call, but might be SNP, might be Lib Dem—we'll see. South Basildon and East Thurrock was a Tory seat but had a Reform candidate standing, and given it's in Essex might split and go to Labour.
posted by rory at 4:29 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Somedays I honestly don't know if they'll be able to exist without that excuse.
Even if the monarchy were dismantled tomorrow, Sinn Fein still wouldn't accept any loyalty oath to any colonizers and good on them for that.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:56 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Even if the monarchy were dismantled tomorrow, Sinn Fein still wouldn't accept any loyalty oath to any colonizers and good on them for that.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:56 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Sure, but the version of Labour Corbyn led was one whose policies I largely agreed with, while the version of Labour Starmer is leading is one whose policies turn my teeth into the grimace emoji on reading them
I get that, but Corbyn's version of Labour - and Micheal Foot's before him - was a version which the British public has repeatedly declined to vote for in enough numbers to win them power. The danger of preferring purity to practical politics is eternal impotence.
Starmer won't be perfect by either your lights or mine, but he is Prime Minister now, with a large majority, and hence has the ability to make actual improvements to how the country is run. That's what counts.
posted by Paul Slade at 5:07 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I get that, but Corbyn's version of Labour - and Micheal Foot's before him - was a version which the British public has repeatedly declined to vote for in enough numbers to win them power. The danger of preferring purity to practical politics is eternal impotence.
Starmer won't be perfect by either your lights or mine, but he is Prime Minister now, with a large majority, and hence has the ability to make actual improvements to how the country is run. That's what counts.
posted by Paul Slade at 5:07 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
As pointed out above: Starmer got 9,650,254 votes
Corbyn in 2019 got 10,269,051 votes
Corbyn in 2017 got 12,877,918 votes
FPP messes with what "enough numbers" are
posted by mbo at 5:18 AM on July 5 [8 favorites]
Corbyn in 2019 got 10,269,051 votes
Corbyn in 2017 got 12,877,918 votes
FPP messes with what "enough numbers" are
posted by mbo at 5:18 AM on July 5 [8 favorites]
I get that, but Corbyn's version of Labour - and Micheal Foot's before him - was a version which the British public has repeatedly declined to vote for in enough numbers to win them power.
Seems like Corbyn would've won in an even bigger landslide this time if he had gotten his previous vote shares, wouldn't he?
The danger of preferring purity to practical politics is eternal impotence.
If you are, in fact, repeating the Canadian election of 1993 - you've even got a Reform Party pulling votes from Conservatives! - you might be disappointed by what your theoretically centre-left party does.
Let's hope not.
posted by clawsoon at 5:21 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Seems like Corbyn would've won in an even bigger landslide this time if he had gotten his previous vote shares, wouldn't he?
The danger of preferring purity to practical politics is eternal impotence.
If you are, in fact, repeating the Canadian election of 1993 - you've even got a Reform Party pulling votes from Conservatives! - you might be disappointed by what your theoretically centre-left party does.
Let's hope not.
posted by clawsoon at 5:21 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
There's a recount in South Basildon and East Thurrock—too close to call between Labour and Reform, so the Tories were clearly in third place there.
It's a recount, too, in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, which will happen tomorrow. Apparently a close race between the SNP and Lib Dems.
posted by rory at 5:26 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
It's a recount, too, in Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire, which will happen tomorrow. Apparently a close race between the SNP and Lib Dems.
posted by rory at 5:26 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
> Even if the monarchy were dismantled tomorrow, Sinn Fein still wouldn't accept any loyalty oath to any colonizers and good on them for that.
Martin McGuinness had no problem shaking hands with the Queen, but that's beside the point. I was referring to the fact that Sinn Fein exists as the opposition / revolutionary party - what happens when the revolution succeeds? John D Ruddy has a more nuanced take on a United Ireland as a history YouTuber who grew up just south of the border.
posted by mrzarquon at 5:39 AM on July 5
Martin McGuinness had no problem shaking hands with the Queen, but that's beside the point. I was referring to the fact that Sinn Fein exists as the opposition / revolutionary party - what happens when the revolution succeeds? John D Ruddy has a more nuanced take on a United Ireland as a history YouTuber who grew up just south of the border.
posted by mrzarquon at 5:39 AM on July 5
Seems like Corbyn would've won in an even bigger landslide this time if he had gotten his previous vote shares, wouldn't he?
If you look at the percentage of the vote, in 2017, where Labour did rather well, he got 40% of the vote (and Conservatives 4.2%). In 2019, he got 32.2%. The raw numbers are of course modified by turnout, but it's kind of meaningless to say that a leader got more people voting for him if even more voted for his opponent.
So there's certainly something to be said that Corbyn inspired passionate support in the way that Starmer does not, but equally he invoked just as fervent opposition!
This is neither a pro nor anti Corbyn post, but I find the repeated quoting of the numbers as if they are meaningful not very helpful for the discussion. It is very clear that Corbyn was not able to win a majority. Perhaps under different circumstances that would not be the case, but his version of Labour was pretty soundly beaten in 2019.
All that said, it is very clear that a massive part of Labour's victory is people not wanting the conservatives, with a lot of seats won by the split to reform. If anything, this clearly demonstrates how badly the Brexit referendum worked as a way to appease the lunatic fringe of the party. It's actually just got worse after the lunatics got exactly what they wanted.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 5:40 AM on July 5 [12 favorites]
If you look at the percentage of the vote, in 2017, where Labour did rather well, he got 40% of the vote (and Conservatives 4.2%). In 2019, he got 32.2%. The raw numbers are of course modified by turnout, but it's kind of meaningless to say that a leader got more people voting for him if even more voted for his opponent.
So there's certainly something to be said that Corbyn inspired passionate support in the way that Starmer does not, but equally he invoked just as fervent opposition!
This is neither a pro nor anti Corbyn post, but I find the repeated quoting of the numbers as if they are meaningful not very helpful for the discussion. It is very clear that Corbyn was not able to win a majority. Perhaps under different circumstances that would not be the case, but his version of Labour was pretty soundly beaten in 2019.
All that said, it is very clear that a massive part of Labour's victory is people not wanting the conservatives, with a lot of seats won by the split to reform. If anything, this clearly demonstrates how badly the Brexit referendum worked as a way to appease the lunatic fringe of the party. It's actually just got worse after the lunatics got exactly what they wanted.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 5:40 AM on July 5 [12 favorites]
The point isn't so much Corbyn. It's that with such a small Labour vote, at any point in the next five years, the leader of the Tories and the leader of Reform can shake hands and make the same deal as in 2019 not to stand in the same seats, and Starmer can no longer win an election.
Labour need to either:
1. Expand their appeal
2. Introduce PR
3. Pray that their opponents are dumb enough to make the same mistake twice
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:56 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Labour need to either:
1. Expand their appeal
2. Introduce PR
3. Pray that their opponents are dumb enough to make the same mistake twice
posted by TheophileEscargot at 5:56 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I just wanted to tell you all good luck, we're all counting on you.
posted by gc at 6:07 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by gc at 6:07 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Seems like Corbyn would've won in an even bigger landslide this time if he had gotten his previous vote shares, wouldn't he?
I'm not at all sure that he would. Corbyn had a deep but narrow appeal. He got his vote share by racking up large majorities in many existing Labour seats, but not in enough seats that were held by other parties. You can't really extrapolate anything from vote share in an election where people are absolutely willing to vote tactically. For example, Labour will have lost vote share where Labour supporters in Tory/Lib Dem seats voted Lib Dem to unseat the Tories.
Corbyn had two attempts to try and win a general election for Labour and was unsuccessful both times. It's more than reasonable for a party that intends to be in government to then look to someone else - many people only get one chance before being ousted. His manifesto policies were reasonably popular but unfortunately for Corbyn, too many people actively did not want him to be PM and too many people did not believe that his policies were deliverable/affordable.
posted by plonkee at 6:13 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I'm not at all sure that he would. Corbyn had a deep but narrow appeal. He got his vote share by racking up large majorities in many existing Labour seats, but not in enough seats that were held by other parties. You can't really extrapolate anything from vote share in an election where people are absolutely willing to vote tactically. For example, Labour will have lost vote share where Labour supporters in Tory/Lib Dem seats voted Lib Dem to unseat the Tories.
Corbyn had two attempts to try and win a general election for Labour and was unsuccessful both times. It's more than reasonable for a party that intends to be in government to then look to someone else - many people only get one chance before being ousted. His manifesto policies were reasonably popular but unfortunately for Corbyn, too many people actively did not want him to be PM and too many people did not believe that his policies were deliverable/affordable.
posted by plonkee at 6:13 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Martin McGuinness had no problem shaking hands with the Queen, but that's beside the point.
He shook her hand in the spirit of reconciliation and to show that a free Ireland can be a good neighbor despite the past between them. He did not bow, he did not kneel, he did not pledge allegiance or fealty.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:19 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
He shook her hand in the spirit of reconciliation and to show that a free Ireland can be a good neighbor despite the past between them. He did not bow, he did not kneel, he did not pledge allegiance or fealty.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:19 AM on July 5 [7 favorites]
Looking at this from the States, I can’t see how anyone can look at these results and not think electoral reform is desperately needed. 33% of the vote should not result in 63% of the seats.
Also, I just can’t understand the quarter of the electorate that is ride-or-die for the Tories. Say what you will about Reform (all bad) they do appeal to racists ready and eager to blame the nation’s problems on immigrants, whereas the Conservatives spent the last decade-and-a-half running the UK into the ground.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:20 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Also, I just can’t understand the quarter of the electorate that is ride-or-die for the Tories. Say what you will about Reform (all bad) they do appeal to racists ready and eager to blame the nation’s problems on immigrants, whereas the Conservatives spent the last decade-and-a-half running the UK into the ground.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:20 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
after the lunatics got exactly what they wanted.
They were promised all the immigrants out and a return to the white Britain of their childhood memories. (Which never really existed, of course.)
Brexit was always shorthand for that dream of theirs. When Johnson campaigned in 2019 on "Get Brexit Done", that's what they heard, so they voted for him.
Neither he nor his successors gave them that, and Farage is now promising it, so to him they go.
Reform numbers are a handy reference for the number of voters who can be swayed by fearmongering about immigration and racism: enough so the Tories can't win without them, but (with a few exceptions) not enough to sway a whole consituency.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:20 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
They were promised all the immigrants out and a return to the white Britain of their childhood memories. (Which never really existed, of course.)
Brexit was always shorthand for that dream of theirs. When Johnson campaigned in 2019 on "Get Brexit Done", that's what they heard, so they voted for him.
Neither he nor his successors gave them that, and Farage is now promising it, so to him they go.
Reform numbers are a handy reference for the number of voters who can be swayed by fearmongering about immigration and racism: enough so the Tories can't win without them, but (with a few exceptions) not enough to sway a whole consituency.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:20 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
the leader of the Tories and the leader of Reform can shake hands and make the same deal as in 2019 not to stand in the same seats, and Starmer can no longer win an election
This is quite possibly true, although I think that in the current election a lot of the Reform votes were made by people deliberately choosing not to vote Tory. I'm not sure that they would all actually have voted Conservative if there was no Reform choice as a number of people seemed to be deciding between Labour and Reform.
There are also a number of seats where the vote share is split almost evenly between Tory + Reform vs Labour + Lib Dem + Green. If a national Labour victory was believed to be less assured due to a Tory-Reform pact, then it's possible that tactical voting on the left might result in a Labour seat.
posted by plonkee at 6:22 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
This is quite possibly true, although I think that in the current election a lot of the Reform votes were made by people deliberately choosing not to vote Tory. I'm not sure that they would all actually have voted Conservative if there was no Reform choice as a number of people seemed to be deciding between Labour and Reform.
There are also a number of seats where the vote share is split almost evenly between Tory + Reform vs Labour + Lib Dem + Green. If a national Labour victory was believed to be less assured due to a Tory-Reform pact, then it's possible that tactical voting on the left might result in a Labour seat.
posted by plonkee at 6:22 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Also, I just can’t understand the quarter of the electorate that is ride-or-die for the Tories. Say what you will about Reform (all bad) they do appeal to racists ready and eager to blame the nation’s problems on immigrants, whereas the Conservatives spent the last decade-and-a-half running the UK into the ground.
Tories could turn the country to ash and some people would still vote for them as long as they maintain their position in the social hierarchy of said ash.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:22 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Tories could turn the country to ash and some people would still vote for them as long as they maintain their position in the social hierarchy of said ash.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:22 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Corbyn had two attempts to try and win a general election for Labour and was unsuccessful both times.
I think what I'm trying to say - which other people have said better - is that the Labour majority seems to have nothing much to do with Corbyn vs. Starmer, but instead is mostly the result of vote-splitting on the right. A much better version of Labour could've won this election through no particular virtues of its own, just like a much better version of Labour lost previous elections through no particular faults of its own.
posted by clawsoon at 6:23 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I think what I'm trying to say - which other people have said better - is that the Labour majority seems to have nothing much to do with Corbyn vs. Starmer, but instead is mostly the result of vote-splitting on the right. A much better version of Labour could've won this election through no particular virtues of its own, just like a much better version of Labour lost previous elections through no particular faults of its own.
posted by clawsoon at 6:23 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Tories could turn the country to ash and some people would still vote for them as long as they maintain their position in the social hierarchy of said ash.
Yeah, true. As an American the class thing is just something I always forget about.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:25 AM on July 5
Yeah, true. As an American the class thing is just something I always forget about.
posted by rhymedirective at 6:25 AM on July 5
I’ll give Starmer this, he ran the most minimalist political campaign I can ever remember seeing. Where Obama offered Hope and Change, Starmer settled for just Change. No hope needed.
posted by Kattullus at 6:27 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 6:27 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Yeah, true. As an American the class thing is just something I always forget about.
There is absolutely a socially constructed hierarchy that underlies the social fabric of the US. There is a large segment of white voters who will vote to bankrupt themselves absolving the state of its responsibilities to its citizens as long as a Black person won't receive help or be hurt more.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:28 AM on July 5 [16 favorites]
There is absolutely a socially constructed hierarchy that underlies the social fabric of the US. There is a large segment of white voters who will vote to bankrupt themselves absolving the state of its responsibilities to its citizens as long as a Black person won't receive help or be hurt more.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:28 AM on July 5 [16 favorites]
Starmer settled for just Change
From what I can see, he campaigned on precisely no change. "We'll be racists too! We'll be Brexiters! We'll be transphobes! Don't you worry!"
Spineless, visionless, hopeless. And probably an unshiftable lump for the next 5 years.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:32 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
From what I can see, he campaigned on precisely no change. "We'll be racists too! We'll be Brexiters! We'll be transphobes! Don't you worry!"
Spineless, visionless, hopeless. And probably an unshiftable lump for the next 5 years.
posted by Pallas Athena at 6:32 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
He wanted a blank cheque and effectively got one. My main fear is not that he’ll use it, but that he won’t.
posted by Phanx at 6:33 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
posted by Phanx at 6:33 AM on July 5 [13 favorites]
There is absolutely a socially constructed hierarchy that underlies the social fabric of the US.
I am well aware of this, thanks. I was referring to the British class system and its functioning; it wasn’t my intention to start an American derail so can we please drop it?
posted by rhymedirective at 6:39 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I am well aware of this, thanks. I was referring to the British class system and its functioning; it wasn’t my intention to start an American derail so can we please drop it?
posted by rhymedirective at 6:39 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Tories could turn the country to ash and some people would still vote for them
The problem with being a Tory is that eventually you run out of other people's ashes.
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
The problem with being a Tory is that eventually you run out of other people's ashes.
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I think what I'm trying to say - which other people have said better - is that the Labour majority seems to have nothing much to do with Corbyn vs. Starmer, but instead is mostly the result of vote-splitting on the right. A much better version of Labour could've won this election through no particular virtues of its own, just like a much better version of Labour lost previous elections through no particular faults of its own.
Yeah I don't know if that's entirely true. Now, to be clear I do think Labour could have been better this election on a lot of different things, and I am quite worried by their manifesto in that if they deliver it as written it would mean some quite big cuts.
But I do think that there was actually tactical voting against labour in 2019, precisely because there was a fear of Corbyn. I don't think said fear was particularly deserved, but thanks to a combination of
1) folk history from the 70s (my understanding is that a lot of this is exaggerated and untrue)
2) the financial crisis being blamed on labour (this is of course utter nonsense, but unfortunately it stuck)
3) A perception of Corbyn as an extremist (again if you look at their manifestos this was exaggerated, although I do think the 2019 was quite bad)
There is definitely a certain proportion of people who Labour need to win who can be convinced that labour are extremists who will bankrupt the country. And while I think this is nonsense, it's not like we don't have in living memory nations in Europe who basically did lose the respect and confidence of the banks.
The biggest blow to the conservatives, among many blows, was Liz Truss managing to do the exact thing that people are scared of Labour for, and spook financial markets by massive uncosted changes (hers were tax cuts rather than spending, but the impact is basically the same). I think that really wrecked them in the popular consciousness.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 6:47 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Yeah I don't know if that's entirely true. Now, to be clear I do think Labour could have been better this election on a lot of different things, and I am quite worried by their manifesto in that if they deliver it as written it would mean some quite big cuts.
But I do think that there was actually tactical voting against labour in 2019, precisely because there was a fear of Corbyn. I don't think said fear was particularly deserved, but thanks to a combination of
1) folk history from the 70s (my understanding is that a lot of this is exaggerated and untrue)
2) the financial crisis being blamed on labour (this is of course utter nonsense, but unfortunately it stuck)
3) A perception of Corbyn as an extremist (again if you look at their manifestos this was exaggerated, although I do think the 2019 was quite bad)
There is definitely a certain proportion of people who Labour need to win who can be convinced that labour are extremists who will bankrupt the country. And while I think this is nonsense, it's not like we don't have in living memory nations in Europe who basically did lose the respect and confidence of the banks.
The biggest blow to the conservatives, among many blows, was Liz Truss managing to do the exact thing that people are scared of Labour for, and spook financial markets by massive uncosted changes (hers were tax cuts rather than spending, but the impact is basically the same). I think that really wrecked them in the popular consciousness.
posted by Cannon Fodder at 6:47 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
The problem with being a Tory is that eventually you run out of other people's ashes.
Then you just start thinning the pyramid. Why do you think the Order of Precedence is so extensive? It’s not just for figuring out seating arrangements at state banquets.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:47 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Then you just start thinning the pyramid. Why do you think the Order of Precedence is so extensive? It’s not just for figuring out seating arrangements at state banquets.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:47 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
and spook financial markets by massive uncosted changes (hers were tax cuts rather than spending
This is one of the most hopeful weird little signs of the past few years. Has whoever sets the mood in the financial markets finally got over the "lower taxes always good!!!" ideology of the last 40 years? Is somebody waking up, or was that just a one-off blip?
posted by clawsoon at 6:51 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
This is one of the most hopeful weird little signs of the past few years. Has whoever sets the mood in the financial markets finally got over the "lower taxes always good!!!" ideology of the last 40 years? Is somebody waking up, or was that just a one-off blip?
posted by clawsoon at 6:51 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
@Your Childhood Pet Rock just to point out, I live here in Northern Ireland as an immigrant and will soon have a chance to vote in these elections, so my views are also my preferences based on my lived political experience here. I'd like a functioning political system here and we don't have one - nothing in how SF operates structurally makes me think they're going to do great when they no longer have partition and the English as the excuse for not getting anything done. A sentiment shared by other radical progressives I know here.
posted by mrzarquon at 6:54 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by mrzarquon at 6:54 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
50 shades of beige - jonathan pie's classic rant
posted by lalochezia at 6:56 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by lalochezia at 6:56 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Cold War Steve has made two images today, which just about capture the mood [links to twitter].
posted by Kattullus at 7:01 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 7:01 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
I'm glad we don't have proportional representation.
Lib Dems (71 MPs) - 3,499,969 votes (12.2%)
Reform (4 MPs) - 4,102,109 votes (14.3%)
posted by essexjan at 7:17 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Lib Dems (71 MPs) - 3,499,969 votes (12.2%)
Reform (4 MPs) - 4,102,109 votes (14.3%)
posted by essexjan at 7:17 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Just a totally personal coda to my comment last night about my lifetime Labour activist Dad being unwell and possibly missing the whole thing.
I just masked up and popped into the care home very briefly - He was lying on his bed watching all the election coverage, totally aware and appreciative of the whole thing (albeit amazed!). I threw today’s Guardian to him from a distance and sat in the doorway for a bit watching the rolling news with him and chatting about it, and find myself comforted and thrilled to know that he knows what’s happened, even if he is finding it strange to have not been involved in campaigning himself for the first time in decades :) Yay.
posted by penguin pie at 7:29 AM on July 5 [48 favorites]
I just masked up and popped into the care home very briefly - He was lying on his bed watching all the election coverage, totally aware and appreciative of the whole thing (albeit amazed!). I threw today’s Guardian to him from a distance and sat in the doorway for a bit watching the rolling news with him and chatting about it, and find myself comforted and thrilled to know that he knows what’s happened, even if he is finding it strange to have not been involved in campaigning himself for the first time in decades :) Yay.
posted by penguin pie at 7:29 AM on July 5 [48 favorites]
Starmer's first speech at lunchtime was actually pretty decent. Might allow myself the teensiest slice of optimism. Beyond the six weeks of optimism, even, that I allowed myself that the Tories were going to win between 100 and 150 seats. I was wrong to predict high turnout, though—we've seen the opposite, which I expect is down to some on the left not wanting to turn out for Starmer and some on the right not wanting to turn out for the Tories but not at all enthused by Reform. The election was fought between people who could live with Labour as the best progressive chance on the table, racists who flocked to Farage, Tories willing to vote Lib Dem, and Tories who hold with Leadsom's nonsense about their being the "natural party of government". (Earthquakes and volcanoes are natural. Floods and pandemics and flippin' lettuce-shaped meteors colliding with the planet are natural...)
Speaking of collisions, Liz Truss will now surely be remembered as the iceberg lettuce that sank the Titanic. Although if Captain Boris hadn't had those lockdown parties on the ship's upper decks it might never have collided with her, and this might have been a much worse day for the non-Tory/Reform majority of UK voters.
posted by rory at 7:30 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Speaking of collisions, Liz Truss will now surely be remembered as the iceberg lettuce that sank the Titanic. Although if Captain Boris hadn't had those lockdown parties on the ship's upper decks it might never have collided with her, and this might have been a much worse day for the non-Tory/Reform majority of UK voters.
posted by rory at 7:30 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
50 shades of beige - jonathan pie's classic rant
Also on YouTube for those of us whose browsers the NYT doesn't play nice with.
posted by flabdablet at 7:56 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Also on YouTube for those of us whose browsers the NYT doesn't play nice with.
posted by flabdablet at 7:56 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Keir Starmer's first speech as UK prime minister in full | BBC News
Josh Widdicombe has let himself go.
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Josh Widdicombe has let himself go.
posted by flabdablet at 8:01 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
I'm glad we don't have proportional representation.
Lib Dems (71 MPs) - 3,499,969 votes (12.2%)
Reform (4 MPs) - 4,102,109 votes (14.3%)
I'm not. There should be 44 Green MPs on a 6.8% vote share, not 4. It isn't just about racists and closet fascists.
The thing is, we don't know how things would really shake out under PR in the UK. Labour's 33% of the vote will have included many voters who would rather have voted for minor parties but didn't feel they could under FPP. The same would be true of the Lib Dem vote in many of their seats. PR would have spared us the last decade of Tory rule, and could have damped down the conditions under which racists and closet fascists have thrived.
And what have we got now? Four million voters who'll feel unrepresented and disgruntled because they should have 93 seats rather than 4. That level of disfranchisement isn't healthy for any political system. If people don't feel represented they'll feel that Parliament doesn't speak for them, and they'll turn to demagogues who do. Have turned to them, because that's the story of the last ten years. Farage's power has been magnified by being outside parliament and unaccountable to it. He's been able to argue for radical change without any consideration of the consequences, and scared one of the two main parties—no, both of the main parties, first one and then the other—into going along with it because they've feared what he might do to their vote.
If he'd been a noisy voice in parliament for all these years instead, attracting a predictable 10-15% of the vote every election, David Cameron wouldn't have been spooked by him to the point where he gambled everything on the referendum roulette wheel. Centre-left or centre-right parties each with minor parties to the left and the right of them have more choices to form coalitions and don't feel the same need to pander to extremes. It doesn't condemn them to having to move to the centre themselves, but it does mean there's a better chance that over 50% of voters will feel that they're reflected in the final coalition government, or in the decisions of a minority government that get voted through with the support of a majority in Parliament.
If you change the electoral system it changes everything. That's the deeper point about why first past the post is so damaging: that changes representative democracy too, but for the worse. All of us would be able to vote for more dramatic change under PR, not just the reactionaries and racists: the climate crisis means we're heading into a decade, or a year, or a month for all we know, when we need bold green policies, and the system as it is has shown itself incapable of delivering them in the timeframe needed.
posted by rory at 8:05 AM on July 5 [33 favorites]
Lib Dems (71 MPs) - 3,499,969 votes (12.2%)
Reform (4 MPs) - 4,102,109 votes (14.3%)
I'm not. There should be 44 Green MPs on a 6.8% vote share, not 4. It isn't just about racists and closet fascists.
The thing is, we don't know how things would really shake out under PR in the UK. Labour's 33% of the vote will have included many voters who would rather have voted for minor parties but didn't feel they could under FPP. The same would be true of the Lib Dem vote in many of their seats. PR would have spared us the last decade of Tory rule, and could have damped down the conditions under which racists and closet fascists have thrived.
And what have we got now? Four million voters who'll feel unrepresented and disgruntled because they should have 93 seats rather than 4. That level of disfranchisement isn't healthy for any political system. If people don't feel represented they'll feel that Parliament doesn't speak for them, and they'll turn to demagogues who do. Have turned to them, because that's the story of the last ten years. Farage's power has been magnified by being outside parliament and unaccountable to it. He's been able to argue for radical change without any consideration of the consequences, and scared one of the two main parties—no, both of the main parties, first one and then the other—into going along with it because they've feared what he might do to their vote.
If he'd been a noisy voice in parliament for all these years instead, attracting a predictable 10-15% of the vote every election, David Cameron wouldn't have been spooked by him to the point where he gambled everything on the referendum roulette wheel. Centre-left or centre-right parties each with minor parties to the left and the right of them have more choices to form coalitions and don't feel the same need to pander to extremes. It doesn't condemn them to having to move to the centre themselves, but it does mean there's a better chance that over 50% of voters will feel that they're reflected in the final coalition government, or in the decisions of a minority government that get voted through with the support of a majority in Parliament.
If you change the electoral system it changes everything. That's the deeper point about why first past the post is so damaging: that changes representative democracy too, but for the worse. All of us would be able to vote for more dramatic change under PR, not just the reactionaries and racists: the climate crisis means we're heading into a decade, or a year, or a month for all we know, when we need bold green policies, and the system as it is has shown itself incapable of delivering them in the timeframe needed.
posted by rory at 8:05 AM on July 5 [33 favorites]
Cabinet appointments so far:
Angela Rayner - Deputy Prime Minister and Levelling Up Secretary
Rachel Reeves - Chancellor of the Exchequer*
Pat McFadden- Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Shabana Mahmood - Justice Secretary
John Healy - Defence Secretary
Wes Streeting - Health Secretary**
David Lammy - Foreign Secretary
Bridget Phillipson - Education Secretary
Yvette Cooper - Home Secretary
Ed Miliband - Energy Secretary
* the first time a woman has held this role
** Streeting is a transphobe who has said he wants to implement the Cass Review in full and wants to ban trans people from open wards
posted by fight or flight at 8:31 AM on July 5 [11 favorites]
Angela Rayner - Deputy Prime Minister and Levelling Up Secretary
Rachel Reeves - Chancellor of the Exchequer*
Pat McFadden- Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
Shabana Mahmood - Justice Secretary
John Healy - Defence Secretary
Wes Streeting - Health Secretary**
David Lammy - Foreign Secretary
Bridget Phillipson - Education Secretary
Yvette Cooper - Home Secretary
Ed Miliband - Energy Secretary
* the first time a woman has held this role
** Streeting is a transphobe who has said he wants to implement the Cass Review in full and wants to ban trans people from open wards
posted by fight or flight at 8:31 AM on July 5 [11 favorites]
Anybody else wake up to find themselves still in a Conservative constituency?
20 pts less than last time but I still came home to one of the strongest conservative seats in the country!
posted by ellieBOA at 8:34 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
20 pts less than last time but I still came home to one of the strongest conservative seats in the country!
posted by ellieBOA at 8:34 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
he wants to implement the Cass Review in full
Cass Review backgrounder: The Cass Report: Anti-science and Anti-trans (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 14m23s)
posted by flabdablet at 9:07 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
Cass Review backgrounder: The Cass Report: Anti-science and Anti-trans (Rebecca Watson, YouTube, 14m23s)
posted by flabdablet at 9:07 AM on July 5 [10 favorites]
I used to admire David Lammy who looks to become the new foreign secretary. But he will not cut down UK arms sales. As for his stance on Palestine:
posted by vacapinta at 9:22 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
Some unfurled banners while others held up the Palestinian flag, asking questions like: "How many people have to be killed in Gaza before you stop arming Israel?"Certainly Labour will be an improvement on the Tories (a low bar in itself) but it is difficult to be cheerful.
A number also made inaudible claims around donations made to the Labour Party from "Israeli lobbyists".
But these allegations were returned with an angry response from Mr Lammy, who called the protesters "shameful and antisemitic".
posted by vacapinta at 9:22 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
We so nearly got rid of Streeting, too. 528 votes! Leanne Mohamad, a Palestinian human rights activist running as an independent, came that close to beating him.
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:24 AM on July 5 [9 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:24 AM on July 5 [9 favorites]
The look on Ed Miliband's face is priceless.
posted by automatronic at 9:25 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by automatronic at 9:25 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
Ohh fuck. Reform have another seat in Basildon, edging out Labour by just 98 votes.
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:26 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
posted by Pallas Athena at 9:26 AM on July 5 [4 favorites]
The photo of Rishi Sunak talking to the press in front of 10 Downing while his wife glares like Samara from The Ring in the background is just *chef's kiss*
posted by Kitteh at 9:43 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 9:43 AM on July 5 [3 favorites]
More cabinet appointments:
Jonathan Reynolds - Business Secretary
Lisa Nandy - Culture Secretary
Ian Murray - Scotland Secretary
Louise Haigh - Transport Secretary
Liz Kendall - Work & Pensions Secretary
Jo Stevens - Wales Secretary
Hilary Benn - Northern Ireland Secretary
Steve Reed - Environment Secretary
posted by fight or flight at 10:00 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Jonathan Reynolds - Business Secretary
Lisa Nandy - Culture Secretary
Ian Murray - Scotland Secretary
Louise Haigh - Transport Secretary
Liz Kendall - Work & Pensions Secretary
Jo Stevens - Wales Secretary
Hilary Benn - Northern Ireland Secretary
Steve Reed - Environment Secretary
posted by fight or flight at 10:00 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
The photo of Rishi Sunak talking to the press in front of 10 Downing while his wife glares like Samara from The Ring in the background is just *chef's kiss*
This one?
After the Tattooed Mom photo, I have to ask: Has Sunak always had the gift of looking like he's the secondary character in someone else's photo?
posted by clawsoon at 10:40 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
This one?
After the Tattooed Mom photo, I have to ask: Has Sunak always had the gift of looking like he's the secondary character in someone else's photo?
posted by clawsoon at 10:40 AM on July 5 [6 favorites]
A thread I saw today (John Bull, Bluesky) pointed out that the Tories' first order of business is already chaos-stricken.
With the rules as currently imposed by their 1922 Committee, it takes 15% of sitting Tory MPs to submit letters to call 'no confidence' and trigger a new leadership contest. At present, that's 19.
The threshold to put a candidate on the ballot for Tory leadership... is a flat 100. Because, surely, there would be no time in which the Tories wouldn't have hundreds of seats, yes?
So it will require 5/6 of the survivors to come together behind one candidate to even get one nomination going (at a time when the jousting for power and finger-pointing will be extreme), there literally cannot be more than one person on the ballot at a time, and if 1/6 disapprove, they can simply veto it by sending in letters afterwards.
These rules, of course, can be changed by the 1922 Committee as needed, so it's not a total clusterfuck... once they figure out who's chairing that committee and who remains from its previous membership.
posted by delfin at 10:41 AM on July 5 [15 favorites]
With the rules as currently imposed by their 1922 Committee, it takes 15% of sitting Tory MPs to submit letters to call 'no confidence' and trigger a new leadership contest. At present, that's 19.
The threshold to put a candidate on the ballot for Tory leadership... is a flat 100. Because, surely, there would be no time in which the Tories wouldn't have hundreds of seats, yes?
So it will require 5/6 of the survivors to come together behind one candidate to even get one nomination going (at a time when the jousting for power and finger-pointing will be extreme), there literally cannot be more than one person on the ballot at a time, and if 1/6 disapprove, they can simply veto it by sending in letters afterwards.
These rules, of course, can be changed by the 1922 Committee as needed, so it's not a total clusterfuck... once they figure out who's chairing that committee and who remains from its previous membership.
posted by delfin at 10:41 AM on July 5 [15 favorites]
After the Tattooed Mom photo, I have to ask: Has Sunak always had the gift of looking like he's the secondary character?
I feel like I could start a collection of photos where Sunak is constantly accidentally the most pathetic person in them. There's the Tattooed Mom pic, the Samara pic, and my fave: the man who looks like he's re-evaluating all his life choices as Sunak hoists a pint of water next to him. I can't find a link that isn't the Mirror or Daily Mail so I will you good folks do a search for it.
posted by Kitteh at 10:54 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
I feel like I could start a collection of photos where Sunak is constantly accidentally the most pathetic person in them. There's the Tattooed Mom pic, the Samara pic, and my fave: the man who looks like he's re-evaluating all his life choices as Sunak hoists a pint of water next to him. I can't find a link that isn't the Mirror or Daily Mail so I will you good folks do a search for it.
posted by Kitteh at 10:54 AM on July 5 [5 favorites]
delfin, that is potentially an advantage in that if they can get 100 MPs behind one person then it stops them having a second candidate, which means it doesn't go to the frothing membership. Am I right in thinking they are safe for a year after a leadership election?
What are their options for changing their rules?
posted by biffa at 11:06 AM on July 5
What are their options for changing their rules?
posted by biffa at 11:06 AM on July 5
Someone tweeted for the first time we have an education secretary who had free school meals and also for the first time, a housing minister who lived in social housing.
posted by biffa at 11:08 AM on July 5 [18 favorites]
posted by biffa at 11:08 AM on July 5 [18 favorites]
delfin, that is potentially an advantage in that if they can get 100 MPs behind one person then it stops them having a second candidate, which means it doesn't go to the frothing membership. Am I right in thinking they are safe for a year after a leadership election?
What are their options for changing their rules?
And if they can't get 100 behind one person... welp!
Not to mention that one of the reasons much of the Tory rank-and-file were incensed over Sunak's ascension was that it was in effect a coronation; once Boris declared he would not stand and Penny Mordaunt withdrew because she couldn't secure 100, Sunak ran unopposed and did not face a full online vote amongst party members. There was a lot of resentment in Tory camps over their not getting a say, particularly amongst grumblers who felt Sunak had stabbed Boris in the back and effectively performed a party leadership coup.
A belief which Starmer was quite happy to reinforce.
Various online resources suggest that the Committee can change the rules on the fly with each leadership election. Of course, since Graham Brady did not seek reelection and many of his contemporaries got wiped out, their first task is to work out who's actually in charge of the Committee now and makes those decisions.
posted by delfin at 11:38 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
What are their options for changing their rules?
And if they can't get 100 behind one person... welp!
Not to mention that one of the reasons much of the Tory rank-and-file were incensed over Sunak's ascension was that it was in effect a coronation; once Boris declared he would not stand and Penny Mordaunt withdrew because she couldn't secure 100, Sunak ran unopposed and did not face a full online vote amongst party members. There was a lot of resentment in Tory camps over their not getting a say, particularly amongst grumblers who felt Sunak had stabbed Boris in the back and effectively performed a party leadership coup.
A belief which Starmer was quite happy to reinforce.
Various online resources suggest that the Committee can change the rules on the fly with each leadership election. Of course, since Graham Brady did not seek reelection and many of his contemporaries got wiped out, their first task is to work out who's actually in charge of the Committee now and makes those decisions.
posted by delfin at 11:38 AM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Sunak had stabbed Boris in the back and effectively performed a party leadership coup
That's the thing with the Face Eating Leopards party - when it behooves them, they find leopard faces just as delicious as sheep.
posted by CynicalKnight at 11:50 AM on July 5
That's the thing with the Face Eating Leopards party - when it behooves them, they find leopard faces just as delicious as sheep.
posted by CynicalKnight at 11:50 AM on July 5
Why you absolutely can’t consider Reform an extension of the Conservatives and just add the two voting totals together. New polling from MiC shows barely a third would ever vote Conservative.
posted by rory at 11:50 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
posted by rory at 11:50 AM on July 5 [2 favorites]
James Timpson (of Timpson’s keys/shoes etc, huge employer of former prisoners, champion of rehabilitation and all round decent bloke) is to be scooted into a role as a life peer so that he can be Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation.
One of those things that’s totally undemocratic as a process but I find myself suddenly able to turn a hypocritical blind eye when it results in good people getting to do good things!
posted by penguin pie at 12:32 PM on July 5 [8 favorites]
One of those things that’s totally undemocratic as a process but I find myself suddenly able to turn a hypocritical blind eye when it results in good people getting to do good things!
posted by penguin pie at 12:32 PM on July 5 [8 favorites]
Richard Hermer - Attorney General
Patrick Vallance - Minister for Science, Department for Science
James Timpson - Minister for Prisons, Ministry of Justice
Lucy Powell - Leader of the House of Commons
Angela Smith - Leader of the House of Lords
Alan Campbell - Chief Whip
Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Still no Women & Equalities Minister. We'll see.
James Timpson (of Timpson’s keys/shoes etc, huge employer of former prisoners, champion of rehabilitation and all round decent bloke) is to be scooted into a role as a life peer so that he can be Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation.
Wait, are we.. are we actually doing prison reform? Good lord.
posted by fight or flight at 12:44 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Patrick Vallance - Minister for Science, Department for Science
James Timpson - Minister for Prisons, Ministry of Justice
Lucy Powell - Leader of the House of Commons
Angela Smith - Leader of the House of Lords
Alan Campbell - Chief Whip
Darren Jones - Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Still no Women & Equalities Minister. We'll see.
James Timpson (of Timpson’s keys/shoes etc, huge employer of former prisoners, champion of rehabilitation and all round decent bloke) is to be scooted into a role as a life peer so that he can be Minister for Prisons, Parole and Probation.
Wait, are we.. are we actually doing prison reform? Good lord.
posted by fight or flight at 12:44 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Maybe parties in Britain, as in many other European countries, are losing their ability to unite disparate but compatible groups under a single banner. [Labour and the Tories] together attracted the support of only 35% of the electorate—58% of a 60% turnout.
posted by rory at 12:50 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
posted by rory at 12:50 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Woot! Go UK!
posted by sotonohito at 1:09 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
posted by sotonohito at 1:09 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Count Binface's 2024 General Election Results Speech
Bindependence Day tickets available.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:00 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
Bindependence Day tickets available.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 2:00 PM on July 5 [1 favorite]
James Timpson (of Timpson’s keys/shoes etc, huge employer of former prisoners, champion of rehabilitation and all round decent bloke)
Weren't Timpson's tory party donors during James Timpson's stint as CEO? Ah yes, it was to his brother, and not entirely above board.
It's great that he's getting involved in prison policy, he's great on that, but I'm not sold on" all round decent bloke"...
posted by Dysk at 2:05 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Weren't Timpson's tory party donors during James Timpson's stint as CEO? Ah yes, it was to his brother, and not entirely above board.
It's great that he's getting involved in prison policy, he's great on that, but I'm not sold on" all round decent bloke"...
posted by Dysk at 2:05 PM on July 5 [4 favorites]
Labour need to introduce PR. If they don't they're possibly fucked at the next GE and definitely fucked at the one after. The last 40 years of history will just repeat itself and the country will swing back to the Tories or, worse, Reform (or whatever they decide to call themselves in 5 years time).
FPTP needs to be buried in the history books.
The rest - basically what @rory said.
posted by lawrencium at 3:35 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
FPTP needs to be buried in the history books.
The rest - basically what @rory said.
posted by lawrencium at 3:35 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Whilst it would be very funny if the 1922 Committee thresholds paralysed the tories, my understanding is they're about as concrete as a [no gurlz] sign on a treehouse.
posted by lucidium at 4:35 PM on July 5
posted by lucidium at 4:35 PM on July 5
It looks like Starmer's beige offering has enthused few, with around 60% of eligible voters actively engaged in British democracy for the 2024 election, the second lowest turnout since 1918.
Starmer himself may not be re-elected in Holborn and St Pancras if his current trajectory continues. He enjoyed a boost when Corbyn was leader, but a strong campaign by Independent candidate Andrew Feinstein (7,312 votes) clearly enlivened voters.
Votes received by Keir Starmer in Holborn & St Pancras:
2015: 29,062
2017: 41,343
2019: 36,641
2024: 18,884
Will Farage continue to push for PR now that it doesn't matter to him, having finally been elected as an MP on his 8th attempt? It would be a curious outcome if somehow PR came to UK politics as a result of campaigning by a living Tenniel illustration with a cult-like following. There are a number of parties that would back a move to PR, and as has been noted, Labour are only in power due to Conservative collapse. Many Labour constituencies are very tenuously positioned. Will those MP's support PR?
I imagine Starmer would whip against any move to PR because his primary motivation is to protect the establishment from those without power, judging by his career as Chief Prosecutor. Never met a kyriarchy he didn't simp.
If PR were adopted I would expect an increase in voter participation, which would mean more Green/Plaid Cymru/'other' votes. The influence of Leave/UKIP/BXP/Reform voters would be diluted, in addition to the fact that the vote base is continuously reducing due to it's demographic make up.
Younger people (and most everyone else) care more about the things that matter to them locally, like a functioning society and the climate crisis, rather than the fomented immigration 'debate'.
Unfortunately for the UK, Starmer and the walking compassion bypass that is Rachel Reeves/Lammy/Streeting et al, are unlikely to comprehend that continuing to tread the neoliberalist path with the idiocy of further 'austerity' will continue to create the societal conditions that favour right wing demagogues. If indeed they have the baseline emotional intelligence to perceive that punishing those who feel marginalised would be a bad thing, or that encouraging the rise of the far right would have negative impacts beyond their losing their Cabinet positions in 2029.
Disappointing Labour voters is pretty much guaranteed when 13 of the 31 Labour cabinet members are 'friends of Israel', and Starmer says he supports Zionism without qualification. Labour lost four seats to candidates who ran on a 'ceasefire' ticket. Starmer has already purged members with a moral backbone on this matter, in some cases losing seats as a result.
At least the Reform ghouls are fewer in number than predicted, and the Green Party did well. There are a number of constituencies where the Greens were in second place, without any visible campaigning. A grass roots movement could flip those seats.
posted by asok at 4:45 PM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Starmer himself may not be re-elected in Holborn and St Pancras if his current trajectory continues. He enjoyed a boost when Corbyn was leader, but a strong campaign by Independent candidate Andrew Feinstein (7,312 votes) clearly enlivened voters.
Votes received by Keir Starmer in Holborn & St Pancras:
2015: 29,062
2017: 41,343
2019: 36,641
2024: 18,884
Will Farage continue to push for PR now that it doesn't matter to him, having finally been elected as an MP on his 8th attempt? It would be a curious outcome if somehow PR came to UK politics as a result of campaigning by a living Tenniel illustration with a cult-like following. There are a number of parties that would back a move to PR, and as has been noted, Labour are only in power due to Conservative collapse. Many Labour constituencies are very tenuously positioned. Will those MP's support PR?
I imagine Starmer would whip against any move to PR because his primary motivation is to protect the establishment from those without power, judging by his career as Chief Prosecutor. Never met a kyriarchy he didn't simp.
If PR were adopted I would expect an increase in voter participation, which would mean more Green/Plaid Cymru/'other' votes. The influence of Leave/UKIP/BXP/Reform voters would be diluted, in addition to the fact that the vote base is continuously reducing due to it's demographic make up.
Younger people (and most everyone else) care more about the things that matter to them locally, like a functioning society and the climate crisis, rather than the fomented immigration 'debate'.
Unfortunately for the UK, Starmer and the walking compassion bypass that is Rachel Reeves/Lammy/Streeting et al, are unlikely to comprehend that continuing to tread the neoliberalist path with the idiocy of further 'austerity' will continue to create the societal conditions that favour right wing demagogues. If indeed they have the baseline emotional intelligence to perceive that punishing those who feel marginalised would be a bad thing, or that encouraging the rise of the far right would have negative impacts beyond their losing their Cabinet positions in 2029.
Disappointing Labour voters is pretty much guaranteed when 13 of the 31 Labour cabinet members are 'friends of Israel', and Starmer says he supports Zionism without qualification. Labour lost four seats to candidates who ran on a 'ceasefire' ticket. Starmer has already purged members with a moral backbone on this matter, in some cases losing seats as a result.
At least the Reform ghouls are fewer in number than predicted, and the Green Party did well. There are a number of constituencies where the Greens were in second place, without any visible campaigning. A grass roots movement could flip those seats.
posted by asok at 4:45 PM on July 5 [6 favorites]
Starmer could either get his place in the history books as a one (or maybe two) term prime minister or get his place in the history books for modernising the voting system.
I really hope it's the latter, but I have little faith it will be.
posted by lawrencium at 7:30 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
I really hope it's the latter, but I have little faith it will be.
posted by lawrencium at 7:30 PM on July 5 [2 favorites]
Annoyingly, it must feel pretty good to be Rishi Sunak about now. Probably the best it’s felt in years.
Scrolling Californian real estate listings, and cushioned from any kind of meaningful consequences by his monstrous wealth, he gets to sit back and sigh that he’s tired of this island, these people. He’s tired of being caught in the tangle of their lives.
The bastard.
posted by MarchHare at 9:28 PM on July 5 [8 favorites]
Scrolling Californian real estate listings, and cushioned from any kind of meaningful consequences by his monstrous wealth, he gets to sit back and sigh that he’s tired of this island, these people. He’s tired of being caught in the tangle of their lives.
The bastard.
posted by MarchHare at 9:28 PM on July 5 [8 favorites]
Checking back in, as expected my constituency went Labour from Tory, as did four of the neighboring ones, so I'm sat in a sea of red that was pretty heavily blue after 2019. Reform placed third here which is depressing, but not surprising, and probably the main reason for the Labour win if we're being entirely honest. I'm glad they didn't get as many seats as the exit poll indicated though, but five is still too many.
On the plus side the Greens placed a clear second in one of the safe labour seats next door so that's nice.
As I've said before I'm not excited about the new government, and strongly dislike some of their positions, but things do already appear to be shaping up to be slightly less awful than the last five years have been. A low bar admittedly but still a good thing relatively speaking. Even if they just manage to avoid the preposterous soap-opera machinations of the last so-called government that will be something.
I agree with the above comments that we need PR, even though it means that vermin like Reform will spread initially. I think there'd probably be value in getting them out from under their rocks into the sunlight and showing up their candidates by making them do (and probably fail at) the boring day-to-day slog of MPing. The overall progressive-leaning vote still seems to outweigh the shitheads, with demographic change hopefully in our favour. I doubt it'll happen though. Labour are probably more wedded to FPTP than even the Conservatives are right now after that landslide.
Oh well. Time to look up electoral reform organisations again I suppose.
posted by tomsk at 2:30 AM on July 6 [2 favorites]
On the plus side the Greens placed a clear second in one of the safe labour seats next door so that's nice.
As I've said before I'm not excited about the new government, and strongly dislike some of their positions, but things do already appear to be shaping up to be slightly less awful than the last five years have been. A low bar admittedly but still a good thing relatively speaking. Even if they just manage to avoid the preposterous soap-opera machinations of the last so-called government that will be something.
I agree with the above comments that we need PR, even though it means that vermin like Reform will spread initially. I think there'd probably be value in getting them out from under their rocks into the sunlight and showing up their candidates by making them do (and probably fail at) the boring day-to-day slog of MPing. The overall progressive-leaning vote still seems to outweigh the shitheads, with demographic change hopefully in our favour. I doubt it'll happen though. Labour are probably more wedded to FPTP than even the Conservatives are right now after that landslide.
Oh well. Time to look up electoral reform organisations again I suppose.
posted by tomsk at 2:30 AM on July 6 [2 favorites]
« Older Unhooking: On the Gigification of Intimacy | Once Again, Every Frame A Painting Newer »
Some Polling Day dos and don'ts.
Polls open at 7am and close at 10pm, and you can vote after 10pm as long as you were in the queue at the polling station. Make sure to bring the right kind of voter ID, such as a driver's licence or passport. You can use expired photo ID as along as it's still recognisably you. Don't take a selfie inside the polling station, and you're advised not to post to social media from it either—but you can tell your followers afterwards how you've voted, if you like.
Campaigning is allowed on polling day, but not inside a polling station. TV and radio broadcasters must not discuss or analyse election issues once the polls have opened until voting finishes.
Very Important: it's a criminal offence for anyone "to publish, before a poll is closed, any statement about the way in which voters have voted in that election, where this statement is, or might reasonably be taken to be, based on information given by voters after they voted" and also "to publish, before a poll is closed, any forecast—including any estimate—of that election result, if the forecast is based on exit poll information from voters, or which might reasonably be taken to be based on it". So best not do a straw poll of how your mates voted and post who you think is going to win based on it—at least, not until after 10pm British Summer Time.
Here we go—in 5, 4, 3, 2...
posted by rory at 10:48 PM on July 3 [19 favorites]