Le front républicain remonte
July 7, 2024 11:24 AM   Subscribe

Exit polls for the 2nd round of the snap French legislative elections are in - and show the very welcome surprises of both the FN (extreme right of Le Pen) in third place and the NFP (left-green alliance) coming first. Live updates: BBC, Guardian, BFMTV (fr), FranceTVInfo (fr)
posted by protorp (86 comments total) 52 users marked this as a favorite
 
(Exit polls in France are generally some of the most accurate, as they're based on actual vote samples from early closing polling stations rather than word-of-voter-mouth. More info)
posted by protorp at 11:27 AM on July 7 [4 favorites]


This is amazing. I was watching France 24 when the exit polls came in and the news presenters could barely conceal their relief.
posted by maggiemaggie at 11:32 AM on July 7 [17 favorites]


please please please let it be true. nardinamouk le pen you nazi scum!
posted by lalochezia at 11:35 AM on July 7 [3 favorites]




That is an enormous relief. A few days ago RN was projected to get 240-310 seats. The BBC exit poll is saying 130-150, and in third place behind NFP and Ensemble. I've got my concerns about NFP but they are way better than RN.
posted by Nelson at 11:37 AM on July 7 [4 favorites]


That's wonderful. I went to bed on Thursday feeling real cruddy at 13 Reform MPs predicted in the UK exit polls; and in the end it was "only" 5 [too many]. Vive la Cinquième République
posted by BobTheScientist at 11:38 AM on July 7 [4 favorites]


Dieu merci
posted by The Manwich Horror at 11:38 AM on July 7 [6 favorites]


Also it should be noted that this is the result of some incredibly sophisticated tactical coordination between the left parties who formed a last-minute coalition for these elections, and on the part of the left party and macronist candidates in 3-way races against RN who agreed to stand down in order not to split the vote.
posted by maggiemaggie at 11:41 AM on July 7 [57 favorites]


I'm curious what the results look like for The Republicans (establishment center-right). They had a major leadership crisis before the election when their president Eric Ciotti broke the "cordon sanitaire" and secretly brokered an alliance with the National Rally. It was such a scandal that the party leadership unanimously kicked him out (though a court later reinstated him); there ended up being two competing slates of candidates under the same banner, traditional LR and a motley crew of right-wingers assembled by Ciotti. Some 60ish Republicans are projected to win -- but which ones?
posted by Rhaomi at 11:47 AM on July 7 [2 favorites]


Along with results across the channel, maybe this is what finally breaks the back of Russia's attempts to attack and destroy Europe from within. Which is very much what members of the FN are tasked with, immigration policies aside.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:48 AM on July 7 [11 favorites]


Mangez toute la merde, Le Pen.
posted by RakDaddy at 11:59 AM on July 7 [15 favorites]


For anyone like me who is not very knowledgeable about these parties: the National Rally (RN) and National Front (FN) are the same thing.
posted by whatnotever at 12:03 PM on July 7 [5 favorites]


Extremely funny to me. Macron played the centrist game of dalliance with the far right and instead of getting anywhere fucked himself good and proper.
posted by Artw at 12:07 PM on July 7 [12 favorites]


This is amazing news. I just heard an interview Thursday with folks behind flep24pod, two multilingual journalists reporting there, how they were feeling pretty certain that RN was going to sweep. They put it to fact that the Ensemble alliance (centrist) party had always threw the left under the bus and were only tepidly agreeing to dropping out in seats that would have been a three way run off - they were saying they'd not drop out if the NPF candidate was a member of the LFI (the very far left).

I'm looking forward to listening to their followup on this to see how it happened - as background they include a lot of context behind French political drama that doesn't usually make it over to the mainstream English language news outlets
posted by mrzarquon at 12:07 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


Fantastic news!!
posted by vacapinta at 12:08 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


I'm holding my breath till tomorrow morning, but I hope. Thanks for this post.
posted by mumimor at 12:11 PM on July 7 [3 favorites]


Another detail worth highlighting re. the 3-way races maggiemaggie mentions;

There were 306 of these, a massive record number. 131 candidates on the left stood down having come 3rd in the first round, vs. 82 candidates from Macron's centrists. And that included standing down in favor of anti-FN right-wing candidates where needed.

No bones about it, this is a very strong result for the left that shows what can be done when egos and differences of degree are put to one side in the face of fascists.
posted by protorp at 12:25 PM on July 7 [52 favorites]


For anyone like me who is not very knowledgeable about these parties: the National Rally (RN) and National Front (FN) are the same thing.

I'm sorry for causing confusion whatnotever. I and many others refuse to refer to that party by the name it's recently chosen to try to obscure its literal nazi roots.
posted by protorp at 12:35 PM on July 7 [10 favorites]


Vive la France! I've celebrated by listening to some stirring renditions of the Marseillaise.

Macron is still an idiot who should never have called this election, but I would much rather he was punished by second place than that Le Pen should further triumph. I guess this boosts Mélenchon's chances of being the next President?
posted by plonkee at 12:36 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


Yes. Though, it is worth noting that party figure head Marie Le Pen is making some show of purging Nazi roots and neo-Nazi ties, but ... ah, the far right is never to be trusted excerpt to deliver sorrow and ruin to the people who put them in power. So.
posted by seraphine at 12:39 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


What a relief. There are still many things to worry about, but at least it’s clear tonight that fascists won’t be in power tomorrow.
posted by motdiem2 at 12:44 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


Thanks Mbappé!
posted by UN at 12:57 PM on July 7 [10 favorites]


A lefty friend in Paris is glad, but still thinks it's too many of them elected. Similar to the UK's results, I suggested.

(I hope to have similar feelings here in the U.S. in a few months.)
posted by wenestvedt at 1:01 PM on July 7 [7 favorites]


Quite a lot of police around the centre of Toulouse tonight. Leg armour on, fire blankets with them.
posted by biffa at 1:04 PM on July 7


Excellent news! Here's hoping the non-Marine Le Pen et al parties can work together going forward.
posted by bouvin at 1:06 PM on July 7


From over here in the US.

Je vous tire mon chapeau!

Also, "Je parle Francais tres bien"
(don't know how to type all your crazy accent marks, my apologies)
posted by Windopaene at 1:14 PM on July 7 [3 favorites]


Whew.
posted by East14thTaco at 1:29 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


when egos and differences of degree are put to one side in the face of fascists.
Yes. The world needs more of that.
posted by pracowity at 1:29 PM on July 7 [16 favorites]


A few days ago, I was afraid that Farage + Meloni + Le Pen + Orban would start getting to work destroying Europe from the inside and defund Ukraine, paving the way for Putin to win the war by attrition.

Now with Farage mostly Defanged, Starmer starting on the UK rekindling ties with the EU, and Le Pen out of the driver's seat, it's looking better for Europe and Ukraine.

Conclusions:

1. Uh oh, some people are not going to get their performance bonus from the Kremlin!
2. It's time for pundits at the NYT, the Washington Post, the Daily Mail et al to write editorials about how the Left is on the rise and the Far-Right is in disarray. Amirite?
3. Now, do the USA. Pretty please?
posted by Bigbootay. Tay! Tay! Blam! Aargh... at 2:10 PM on July 7 [36 favorites]




The socialist candidate I campagned for won by a slim margin of about 500 votes. I'm so happy
posted by anzen-dai-ichi at 2:41 PM on July 7 [46 favorites]


Any good sites for following the actual vote counts and wins as they come in?
posted by clawsoon at 2:42 PM on July 7


You can try this link
posted by anzen-dai-ichi at 2:46 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


I've also found this map.
posted by clawsoon at 2:49 PM on July 7


So, despite heaps of criticism, was Macron right to call this election? Sure, he did not fare well himself, but if the point was to take the wind out of the sails of the extreme right after their recent EU success.. Well, good job?
posted by UN at 2:59 PM on July 7 [9 favorites]



So, despite heaps of criticism, was Macron right to call this election? Sure, he did not fare well himself, but if the point was to take the wind out of the sails of the extreme right after their recent EU success.. Well, good job?


anyone that claims there is a definitive answer to this question is, at best, overconfident in their analysis.
posted by lalochezia at 3:08 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


Now Macron and the coalition need to hammer out a deal, which isn't a sure thing. But what a stunning reversal...
posted by AJaffe at 3:11 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


Watching a live stream from France 24, they had a reporter in Brussels talking about how EU folks aren't the happiest that Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the NFP got the post-election celebration started with a speech saying that the NFP are in charge now and that their left-wing program must be implemented.
posted by clawsoon at 3:40 PM on July 7


Vive la France!!!

I dunno, is Macron maybe a crazy genius for knowing how to take the wind out of the far right's sails?

American friends - please look at the elections in the UK, and now France, and imagine what's possible when political change is not reliant on a rigidly bipolar party framework.
posted by Artful Codger at 4:01 PM on July 7 [8 favorites]


Good news!
posted by GenjiandProust at 4:30 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


Congratulations, anzen-dai-ichi!

I was genuinely in tears when I saw the news earlier this evening. It feels like such a long time since I've seen good news in the wild. And I know there are a ton of caveats and uncertainty, but right now I'm inspired and heartened by the solidarity people have shown in fighting the far-right. I'm sure that some of their choices (about retiring certain candidates, who to back etc) were painful to make, even if tactically it was the right thing to do. I remember listening to some discussion on the radio after the first round of the election, and one of the left-wing politicians (can't remember her name, sorry) was talking about the front populaire and how it could beat the FN. I must admit that at the time I didn't feel very hopeful and I am so delighted to have been wrong.
posted by sequel at 4:33 PM on July 7 [9 favorites]


This is such, such, SUCH good news, and I am massively grateful to everyone posting in this thread who has a better understanding of the situation than I do. Thank you for posting this, protorp! Vive la France!
posted by kristi at 5:19 PM on July 7 [3 favorites]


Amazing news, and congratulations and thanks to you, anzen-dai-ichi.
posted by joannemerriam at 5:52 PM on July 7 [1 favorite]


I was so delighted and relieved when I saw this today. And man, Jordan Bardella gave the whiniest speech imaginable after the FN/NR loss. That just made me happier.
posted by rednikki at 6:16 PM on July 7 [2 favorites]


...EU folks aren't the happiest that Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the NFP got the post-election celebration started with a speech saying that the NFP are in charge now and that their left-wing program must be implemented.

Yeah, well, the EU higher-ups are neoliberal shitheads who can go fuck themselves on this point.
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:19 PM on July 7 [15 favorites]


The votes do indeed appear to say that.
posted by Artw at 6:28 PM on July 7 [3 favorites]


Well, what the votes say is that nobody got an absolute majority. So the reality is either a minority government or some kind of coalition? But in any case the left-wing Alliance has the most seats, so if they keep it together they definitely have a pretty strong opportunity to be the major power in any new government.
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:37 PM on July 7 [4 favorites]


The socialist candidate I campagned for won by a slim margin of about 500 votes. I'm so happy

Thank you for your service! 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
posted by signal at 7:36 PM on July 7 [6 favorites]


lil baby buffalo aint waste time

merci wakan
posted by Rev. Irreverent Revenant at 7:50 PM on July 7


So what happens to Macron? Will he remain PM, or will the coalition choose a new one?
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 10:03 PM on July 7


CheeseDigestsAll: Macron isn't the PM, he's the President. He gets elected separately, and will not step down. The current PM is Gabriel Attal, and he has already stated that he plans to offer his resignation. (He would almost certainly be replaced, regardless, although it depends on what exactly happens wrt coalitions. Because, again, nobody has an absolute majority.)
posted by adrienneleigh at 10:09 PM on July 7 [7 favorites]


Thank you. I assumed it was like the UK. I find this description helpful, though who is in charge of what is still a little murky.
The president is directly elected by the French people every five years. The French Constitution declares him head of state and gives him control over foreign policy and defense.

After parliamentary elections—held every five years, or sooner if the president calls them—the president appoints a prime minister. The appointment requires the approval of Parliament, so the PM almost always comes from the party that controls the chamber. The prime minister serves as head of government and is in charge of domestic policy and day-to-day governing. He also recommends for presidential approval the other members of hisCabinet.
posted by CheeseDigestsAll at 12:02 AM on July 8


Yeah, well, the EU higher-ups are neoliberal shitheads who can go fuck themselves on this point.

Just going to throw in my general disagreement to this. Hear and read it often enough. But I haven't seen much factual information to support this claim, which was one of the narratives used to drive the UK towards Brexit.

Yes, the EU has lowered trade barriers between EU countries, which could be labelled as neoliberal. But in reality this comes more from a type of European federalism, if anything. The EU is a single market, so it would be rather silly to have France and Germany in an escalating trade war due to import taxes.

I know there are Marxists and even some socialist parties (unfortunately , in my view) around who do argue that EU member states should regulate movement of people to protect their labor markets. But again, freedom of movement is not neoliberal, it's a right we have in the EU. I don't want to live in an EU of little kingdoms.

Most but not all EU labor laws protect employees. It's largely countries themselves that choose to block or water down EU regulations to protect labor.

And so on. The EU doesn't have secret neoliberal higher-ups who decide everything, q conspiracy theory style. Not all politicians are leftists or socialist either, but thats not true of any EU country so it reflects the population.
posted by UN at 12:35 AM on July 8 [27 favorites]


I suspect (without knowing much about it) that the neoliberalism of the EU is more associated with stuff like this:
The snap elections came as Brussels warned France it would have to make spending cuts to get back in line with EU budget rules.

In a hung parliament, those cuts now look harder to pass than ever.

The left-wing NFP, the biggest bloc but well short of a majority, has said it wants to raise the minimum wage and the salaries of public sector workers, as well as cutting income tax and social security charges for lower earners.
To me, "you have to make spending cuts" sounds like it has some overlap with Washington Consensus neoliberalism, though I'd be happy to learn more about the specific situation with France and the EU.
posted by clawsoon at 3:25 AM on July 8 [5 favorites]


This is a huge topic and one that's not easy to address in a thread about french parliamentary elections.

Critiques of the EU and its associated institutions from both the left and right have legitimacy within their own frameworks.

You can believe both the EU is structurally neoliberal re; both war and capital, and an immense bulwark against both war/capital's divide-and conquer drives to make an even greater race-to-the bottom or more wars for the war machine.

What the EU - and its associated institutions - is, is inertia. For the above cases, when big business or big war wants to make a (on an international stage) 'small' move to make themselves richer, at the EU's expense.... the machine resists.

This very inertia, of course, means the EU is useless for dramatic actions that we might approve of, such as radical change re: climate. But it is useful for things that need to take place over decades, and given the alternatives in the world, for all its manifest flaws..... I am absolutely a supporter of it.
posted by lalochezia at 4:53 AM on July 8 [20 favorites]


The spending cuts mention is because as part of the common markets, most of the EU has a common currency as well. This necessitates a coordination of monetary policy for practical reasons, not ideological ones, and more on the level of conferences of finance ministers than the European Central Bank. The EU just managed to restrain an inflationary bout, so they're highlighting a potential problem - Paris can't freely print all the extra euros they need to increase government spending because the exact same euros are used for buying goods and services in Lithuania and Italy.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:05 AM on July 8 [4 favorites]


Paris can't freely print all the extra euros they need to increase government spending

I'm sure France, like every other country, has plenty of assets owned by obscenely wealthy families - assets that are ripe for the taxing should the political will become available, which given this most excellent leftist rout it just might.
posted by flabdablet at 5:14 AM on July 8 [5 favorites]


To me, "you have to make spending cuts" sounds like it has some overlap with Washington Consensus neoliberalism, though I'd be happy to learn more about the specific situation with France and the EU.

The US and EU influence each other in both directions, so I think there's too much untangling to get a good answer. For example: the EU's privacy laws (GDPR) influence California's privacy laws — but it was largely Californian companies that influenced the EU's privacy laws in the first place. It's...complicated.

I claim sanctuary gave a good answer I think, about spending cuts. But I think it's worth mentioning that the US runs gigantic budget deficits every year that blow the doors off of what's going on in most of the EU. The question then is whether there really is a Washington Consensus neoliberalism on spending cuts. There are enough countries within the EU that approach budgeting out of their own political traditions (for lack of a better term) which is not necessarily informed by US ideology. One could easily make the argument that it's certain EU countries who strongly favor spending cuts, and the Washington consensus is just following (but failing). So again, it's complicated.

And anyway the European Commission is formed by EU countries. So these are self-imposed restrictions by all EU countries as a whole.
posted by UN at 5:21 AM on July 8 [1 favorite]


If you need a political mood lift, watch protorp's link over and over to enjoy all the different faces of joy.
posted by mediareport at 5:42 AM on July 8 [2 favorites]


I like the person on BlueSky said that if France can oust (or at least lessen) the far right and the US can't, then we have to give back all the American jokes about France being Nazi collaborators during WWII.

They're not wrong.
posted by Kitteh at 6:23 AM on July 8 [16 favorites]


As despicable as the FN is, they don't seem to be contesting the legitimacy of the election.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 6:25 AM on July 8 [1 favorite]


The spending cuts mention is because as part of the common markets, most of the EU has a common currency as well. This necessitates a coordination of monetary policy for practical reasons, not ideological ones

Saying that a government financial action is practical and not ideological sounds like exactly what a neoliberal would say. :-)
posted by clawsoon at 7:39 AM on July 8 [1 favorite]


I’m so happy! Very hard not to be able to vote this time, but was happy to vote out the Tories instead.
posted by ellieBOA at 8:03 AM on July 8 [2 favorites]


As despicable as the FN is, they don't seem to be contesting the legitimacy of the election.

Macron seems the main source of saltiness. He really wishes he’d got that exact 50/50 of capture with him on top he always seems to inhabit.
posted by Artw at 8:27 AM on July 8 [3 favorites]


...EU folks aren't the happiest that Jean-Luc Mélenchon of the NFP got the post-election celebration started with a speech saying that the NFP are in charge now and that their left-wing program must be implemented.

>>Yeah, well, the EU higher-ups are neoliberal shitheads who can go fuck themselves on this point.


Mélenchon is a Putin appologist, a NATO sceptic and an EU sceptic. I don't think you need to be a neoliberal shithead to not like the guy.
posted by the_dreamwriter at 10:47 AM on July 8 [5 favorites]


The most unexpected outcome of this election, to me, has been Gabriel Attal being the (minor) hero we needed. He's been Macron's lapdog for years now, and his nomination as PM was met with a lot of snickering, because he's way underqualified for the job.

And yet. Apparently he learnt about the dissolution about 5 minutes before it happened, and the relationship between him and Macron has been Arctic since then. He was the one who went and called for Ensemble candidates to drop out of close 3-way raced, not Macron. In fact, explicitely against Macron's wishes, who called some of candidates personally to ask them to remain. Without him rebelling, the outcome might have been a lot different.
posted by snakeling at 11:48 AM on July 8 [9 favorites]


Can anybody point me to an English-language analysis of why Ensemble refuses to work with the NFP coalition? What I've been able to find from the BBC and The Guardian simply states that's the case, and honestly Roger Cohen's reporting for the NY Times has been execrable bordering on irresponsible.

There have to be some specific issues beyond "they're just as bad." The received wisdom as I understood it was that Macron called for a snap election because he wanted to nip the rise of far-right parties in the bud, right? If that's the case, there were only two outcomes that should have mattered to him — the center wins or the left wins. One of those is a clear victory, and if his reasoning for the election is what has been claimed, the other is at least a half-victory. I understand this result was surprising, but even aside from the majority/plurality question, it's startling to think that he wasn't prepared with some kind of plan for this possibility.
posted by penduluum at 2:28 PM on July 8 [1 favorite]


My incredibly cynical take is that he wanted to align with the far right but on his own terms, and we’d be dealing with the outcome of that bar some pushback from his own party and high turnout.
posted by Artw at 2:35 PM on July 8 [5 favorites]


My naive take is that this election was a crafty but risky Hail Mary play to stop the surging NR from getting closer to taking over. The idea being that denying the NR a majority means that they can't singlehandedly ram through their full agenda... and neither can the other major leaders, even the leader of the NFP, who is himself a bit scary.

The press is all "OMG! Chaos!", but it's also possible that maybe everyone wants a bit of a breather, an Olympic party, and there will initially be some quiet concessions and agreements made to pass a bunch of uncontroversial but important legislation, while the parties internally consider their next play. And in the meantime, hopefully, the wheels come off the NR.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:30 PM on July 8


an Olympic party

It would have been weird for France to repeat Berlin circa 1936. Anyway, fuck the Nazis and fuck Putin. Bunch of losers.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 3:40 PM on July 8 [1 favorite]


Jeremy Harding: The barrage holds.

Wolfgang Münchau: France is one accident from calamity.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 1:05 AM on July 9 [1 favorite]


I can't find a decent English-language summary penduluum, but it boils down to Mélenchon and La France Insoumise still being the dominant figurehead and vocal force on the left. Their core goals include leaving NATO, leaving the EU if it doesn't agree to massive bottom-up reform, ending the 5th Republic and moving to a 6th Republic with reduced presidential powers. A brief summary and some background info :

The left's squeeze on Macron
LFI political programme

The current dynamic within the left alliance is also relevant - there are many elements there who would be glad to see the back of Mélenchon:

France’s fractious left tries to agree enough to govern

The irony being that the situation is not that different in the center:

Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are scarecrows in their respective camps (can't find this article without a paywall, but the excerpt gives the gist)
posted by protorp at 4:37 AM on July 9 [2 favorites]


Mélenchon is a Putin appologist, a NATO sceptic and an EU sceptic.

This is a big win for French national politics, but if many on the far left - like in the west - are as driven by Russian disinfo as the far right, this could end up being the big win Putin has always wanted - the dissolution of NATO and the freedom to grow his empire.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:13 AM on July 9 [1 favorite]


I mean, Mélenchon is a dinosaur, but i'm not sure which parts of the LFI political program you are suggesting are horrible and scary tbh? Their platform says they want to protect labor, write a new constitution for France, implement proportional representation, protect common resources, and transition to 100% green energy as quickly as possible.

Oh, and also they want to renegotiate some stuff with the EU (and leave if they can't), and also leave NATO. You don't have to like those last two things, but they're not some sort of terrifying threat to French society! NATO is absolutely not fit for purpose (and i say that as someone who's a lot less anti-NATO than most leftists), and the EU is a complicated, mixed bag (and again, i say that as someone who's pretty pro-EU in theory, if not entirely in practice.)

Also, look, Mélenchon has also been pretty clear that Russia is violating territorial integrity and breaking international law! Supporting the idea of Ukraine negotiating a peace with Russia is not "being a Putin apologist". Neither is saying that "Russia is a more reliable partner than the United States", frankly. I mean, an MG is probably more reliable than a Cybertruck; saying so isn't an endorsement of my mom buying either one.
posted by adrienneleigh at 4:25 PM on July 9 [1 favorite]


Oh, and also they want to renegotiate some stuff with the EU (and leave if they can't), and also leave NATO.

No problem with a party saying that there are issues with either membership and that they intend to address them... but threats of leaving as signficant party planks is simply irresponsible. These are deep and important relationships that were difficult to form, but have proven fairly durable, and arguably have had net benefits - securing peace (NATO) and lowering barriers to economic activity and movement between member states (EU).

The poster-child for flippantly rage-quitting an important and beneficial international relationship is of course Brexit. Trump also liked rage-quitting international agreements.

Supporting the idea of Ukraine negotiating a peace with Russia is not "being a Putin apologist". Neither is saying that "Russia is a more reliable partner than the United States"

And sucking up to Putin... Jesus Christ. Yeah, let's reward Putin for unilaterally invading a European nation. What could possibly go wrong there? Is there ANY recent example of him being a trustworthy negotiating partner with the west, let alone sharing a vision for a more peaceful world?

Those uncompromising and naive policies might be on the wishlist for some ideological vision of a New Socialist World Order, but are not those of a party or a leader responsible enough to lead an important western nation, at this time.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:56 AM on July 10 [3 favorites]


Oh, and also they want to renegotiate some stuff with the EU (and leave if they can't)

Wasn't it enough of a horror show when Britain did this? I live close to the border to France; everything is so closely intertwined that stopping the free movement of goods and people would cause an incredible amount of economic and personal harm. It would be ten times worse than Brexit and might well be the end of the European Union. And for what?

The EU has its problems, no doubt, but I can't imagine giving up the core of a peaceful and borderless Europe. Just this week I was working together with a French college and it was such a joy. I could just send him my parts and he could take them to a lab in Belgium, all without any paperwork or customs. Similar work with people in Wales takes so much more work and time.
posted by the_dreamwriter at 12:34 PM on July 10 [5 favorites]


Wasn't it enough of a horror show when Britain did this? I live close to the border to France; everything is so closely intertwined that stopping the free movement of goods and people would cause an incredible amount of economic and personal harm. It would be ten times worse than Brexit and might well be the end of the European Union.

the_dreamwriter: Sure! I don't think France should leave the EU either! But there's also zero chance that it's going to happen under any kind of French coalition or minority government, so I'm just not worried about what Mélenchon personally thinks or even the LFI's party platform on this point? They're not going to get it; most of the rest of their platform is fantastic.

Yeah, let's reward Putin for unilaterally invading a European nation. What could possibly go wrong there?

Artful Codger: I mean, everyone keeps blaming Hamas for supposedly not negotiating an end to Israel's invasion of Gaza. What's the difference? Whether or not you agree, why is saying "I think peace is better than war even if some shitheads get some of what they want" good in one case and bad in the other?

And again, a French coalition or minority government is not going to unilaterally abandon Ukraine! This is what i mean when i say Mélenchon is a dinosaur; he's certainly an old uncompromising shithead even if you love leftism, but he's also not going to be In Charge of France the way people here seem to be worried about! He still has to work with his coalition partners, and with centrists! His having possibly-stupid opinions about Putin is just not a real cause for concern!
posted by adrienneleigh at 1:42 PM on July 10 [1 favorite]


I don't think the conflicts in Ukraine and in Gaza can be equated on any meaningful level. Other than both being awful.

We're discussing the aims of both Mélenchon and the bloc he's leading. You've asked what's so scary about them; I've answered. Saying that the constraints of minority government will prevent their acting on their more scary ideas does not in any way make them better suited to lead the new government.

The reality is this: either the coalition members will spar and refuse all compromise and nothing gets done, or there will be some deals struck, some compromises made, and government will function, at least for a while. I don't believe that Mélenchon is the sort of politician who could achieve the latter.
posted by Artful Codger at 2:09 PM on July 10 [2 favorites]


...most of the rest of their platform is fantastic.

This is actually the root of the problem I see in relation to penduluum's original question, which was why I highlighted LFI's programme:

Can anybody point me to an English-language analysis of why Ensemble refuses to work with the NFP coalition?

The EU and Nato stuff, plus Mélenchon's baggage and retoric, just end up painting a huge target and being a low effort scare point holding the whole coalition back.

A ton of people voted left with a clothes peg on the nose this time round through fear of the FN, despite their worries about Mélenchon and the LFI platform. But if the ideological gesture points were left behind that platform has plenty in it that could be sold to the electorate and increase genuine support for the left.
posted by protorp at 11:51 PM on July 10 [1 favorite]


Saying that the constraints of minority government will prevent their acting on their more scary ideas does not in any way make them better suited to lead the new government.

What a nightmare, the thought of it. I wouldn't support any politician with an extremist position like leaving the EU. Some of the right win parties are less extreme than this, and that says a lot. It's like someone suggesting Berlin should put up a wall again, because those were the good old days. Wild.
posted by UN at 4:34 AM on July 11


It makes me think of the official East German name for the Berlin Wall: Antifaschistischer Schutzwall.

Surely putting up a wall around France will keep France safe from the capitalists! And then, after they succeed: people who voted for these politicians will be aghast when they need a visa to vacation or live or retire or work or when they need to take out health insurance to travel to Belgium or find out they're not eligible for university exchanges or complain about the day long wait at the border and the difficulty importing and exporting goods or ordering things from 'just across the border' or figure out they'll need to follow many EU rules while not having a say in them and that nothing will be improved for anyone anyway and so on and so on and so on and so on.
posted by UN at 4:46 AM on July 11


apropos of nothing and also no one asked, but nevertheless i must confess that whenever i see a picture of emmanuel macron i think "finance, trust fund, 5 6, blue eyes"
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 9:17 AM on July 11 [1 favorite]


the_dreamwriter: Sure! I don't think France should leave the EU either! But there's also zero chance that it's going to happen under any kind of French coalition or minority government, so I'm just not worried about what Mélenchon personally thinks or even the LFI's party platform on this point? They're not going to get it; most of the rest of their platform is fantastic.
First, during the first round of presidential elections in 2022 it was 27.9% Macron, 23.2% Le Pen and 22.0% Mélenchon. We were not that far off a Le Pen / Mélenchon secound round. I was pretty worried about Mélenchons views then, but I agree that it's unlikely the current parliament will vote for leaving the EU or NATO.

Second, I also agree that there is much to like in the LFI platform, that's what makes this so frustrating. It reads to me like someone came along and said "I'll bring about luxury gay space communism and I'll also blow up Mt. Fuji!". It makes it hard for me not to doubt that guys sincerity and judgment. Same thing here in Germany, the only party that seems to really care about the increasing wealth inequality is die Linke and they also want to hand Ukraine off to Putin, drop the Euro and leave NATO. So I never vote for them and no one wants to form a coalition with them and their good ideas never go anywhere.
Sometimes I wonder if my ideas about the economy are wrong, just because the only politicians who share those views are very silly people.
posted by the_dreamwriter at 11:20 AM on July 11 [1 favorite]


Why Media Reporting on Rise of Far-Right in European Elections is ‘Breathing Fire in the Dragon we Have Most Reason to Fear’ by Philippe Auclair. It’s a critique of British media’s laser-focus on far right parties in France and continental Europe more widely. Excerpt:
The problem, at least for mainstream British media, is that these numbers, though perfectly logical when placed in a wider context, could not be framed in the accepted narrative: the far-right is on the rise in Western Europe, and its ascent and ultimate victory are inexorable.

Our democracies are faltering. The European dream is all but dead. So when the prophets of doom realised they’d got it wrong, they changed tack: the failure of the neo-fascists to secure power would precipitate a political crisis of such magnitude that, ultimately, Le Pen would benefit from her party’s failure. It is only a question of time. And if this were not the case, we would look elsewhere, as we have done every single time our nightmarish vision of a Europe dominated by ultra-nationalists has been contradicted by facts in the recent past. There is no shortage of examples of this.

One is how numerous English-speaking media suddenly discovered an interest for Finnish politics and devoted extensive coverage to the anti-immigration, anti-EU Finns Party after it won 20.1% of the vote in Finland’s 2023 general election.

This was immediately interpreted as a sure sign that Finland too was going the way of other Western democracies and lurching to the hard right. Yet barely any attention was given to the trouncing the same anti-immigration, populist movement received in the June 2024 European elections, where its share of the vote dropped to 7.6%, almost ten points behind the Left Alliance of Li Andersson – who personally received the most votes a Finnish legislative candidate has recorded in the country’s history. You won’t have read about this in too many places.
posted by Kattullus at 11:41 AM on July 12 [6 favorites]


“We need to talk about the French elections.” [23:57]—Alice Cappelle, 18 July 2024
posted by ob1quixote at 1:13 PM on July 18 [1 favorite]




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