The NDP is ending its governance agreement with the Liberals
September 4, 2024 2:55 PM Subscribe
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is terminating the supply-and-confidence agreement his party made with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau's Liberal government.
The move does not necessarily mean an imminent election. The confidence and supply agreement had been set to last until June 2025.
The move does not necessarily mean an imminent election. The confidence and supply agreement had been set to last until June 2025.
I can't see any reason for the NDP to not keep the Liberals in power until the October 2025 election. If an election happens right now the Conservatives get an outright majority and the NDP will have no say in anything. The NDP needs to work up a compelling platform for the election, hope that lowering interest rates makes the average Canadian a bit more chill, and pray that enough voters actually pay attention to what Pollievre's been saying and decide to vote NDP instead.
I understand voter fatigue with respect to the Liberals. What I don't understand is why that means people will take their vote to the Conservatives instead.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:21 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
I understand voter fatigue with respect to the Liberals. What I don't understand is why that means people will take their vote to the Conservatives instead.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 3:21 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
I hope I'm wrong, but I think that Singh and the NDP are vastly misinterpreting the political auguries. I think they're looking south, and seeing the Harris/Walz momentum, and thinking "let's get a piece of that!", without realizing that the reason that movement is doing so well, is because it's a big-tent alliance between progressives, centrists, and even republicans-of-conscience.
Tearing up the paper keeping Poilievre at bay, and then launching a campaign for PM from the Left of Trudeau, is very much not the way to replicate that success. In my opinion, the Libs and NDP should have deepened their agreement to include strategic candidate removal, like we saw in France. The two parties could have campaigned together on their shared accomplishments, but instead now they get to cut each other to ribbons, and let the fucking Tories goose-step right into power.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:29 PM on September 4 [17 favorites]
Tearing up the paper keeping Poilievre at bay, and then launching a campaign for PM from the Left of Trudeau, is very much not the way to replicate that success. In my opinion, the Libs and NDP should have deepened their agreement to include strategic candidate removal, like we saw in France. The two parties could have campaigned together on their shared accomplishments, but instead now they get to cut each other to ribbons, and let the fucking Tories goose-step right into power.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:29 PM on September 4 [17 favorites]
PP is still trying to make this a "Carbon tax" election.
He is dangerous and annoying
posted by scruss at 3:29 PM on September 4 [6 favorites]
He is dangerous and annoying
posted by scruss at 3:29 PM on September 4 [6 favorites]
I keep thinking about the way the leftist parties came together in France during the recent legislative elections after initial concerns that the far-right would win a majority of seats, and how the Democrats in the United States revitalized their campaign by taking the monumental step of replacing their incumbent and sitting President on the ticket, and then I look at the Canadian political environment and all I feel is despair and resignation with zero sign that any such revitalization can happen here, between Trudeau's and the Liberals' arrogance and frequent missteps and Singh's... whatever the fuck is going on with him and his party these days.
posted by chrominance at 3:39 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
posted by chrominance at 3:39 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
Trudeau is stubborn and thick skinned which (especially the thick skinned) is needed to survive in politics but he is too thick skinned and not getting the message that he’s made mistakes, not explained nor gained public support for his policies, was slow to react to housing and COL crisis, and now has lost general public support in a way that is more than just the general grumbling we always give.
Best description I heard of liberals… they can be counted on to do the right thing… after they have dithered their time away and now are having their feet held above the flames with no other options. I can’t believe they just care taker government time and time again.
I don’t see Singh’s end game here.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 3:57 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
Best description I heard of liberals… they can be counted on to do the right thing… after they have dithered their time away and now are having their feet held above the flames with no other options. I can’t believe they just care taker government time and time again.
I don’t see Singh’s end game here.
posted by St. Peepsburg at 3:57 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
The only thing I am looking forward to is 22 Minutes’ coverage
posted by funkaspuck at 4:21 PM on September 4 [3 favorites]
posted by funkaspuck at 4:21 PM on September 4 [3 favorites]
Amusingly, I happened to be on set doing some BG work for a 22 Minutes skit when I saw the news.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:23 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:23 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
From the CBC yesterday: NDP to have 'tough conversations' about its deal with Liberals at coming retreat: MP
the Liberals' decision last month to force binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at the country's major railroads could end up triggering the end of the pact
If binding arbitration instead of a rail strike was in fact what drove the NDP to cancel the agreement, that's just incredibly dumb politics.
Of course, the NDP might just be planning this as a fairly empty gesture and will continue to prop up the government on confidence matters and it might make little practical difference.
posted by ssg at 4:26 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
the Liberals' decision last month to force binding arbitration to end a work stoppage at the country's major railroads could end up triggering the end of the pact
If binding arbitration instead of a rail strike was in fact what drove the NDP to cancel the agreement, that's just incredibly dumb politics.
Of course, the NDP might just be planning this as a fairly empty gesture and will continue to prop up the government on confidence matters and it might make little practical difference.
posted by ssg at 4:26 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
JT is heading into the woodchipper, and Jagmeet is making sure he's not tied to him when he is.
I can see the case for the NDP still supporting the Grits, but not making that support automatic. Make them earn it on a case by case basis. And in the process, assert the NDP as something separate and distinct and positive and Not JT.
Doesn't seem like the worst move to me. Perhaps even the only move if the NDP is to survive.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on September 4 [16 favorites]
I can see the case for the NDP still supporting the Grits, but not making that support automatic. Make them earn it on a case by case basis. And in the process, assert the NDP as something separate and distinct and positive and Not JT.
Doesn't seem like the worst move to me. Perhaps even the only move if the NDP is to survive.
posted by Capt. Renault at 4:33 PM on September 4 [16 favorites]
I think I am the most politically disengaged right now than I’ve ever been. And I know that’s not a good thing. I mean, I will hold my nose and vote for whichever flavour of neoliberalism to strategically keep PP and his ilk out - whether in 1 month or 12 months. But also I live in a mostly conservative riding, so my vote only goes so far. It’s discouraging.
posted by eekernohan at 4:35 PM on September 4
posted by eekernohan at 4:35 PM on September 4
I don't see a path forward that bodes well for Trudeau or anyone that isn't already in the pocket of the Conservatives. Fuuuuuu
posted by Kitteh at 4:35 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
posted by Kitteh at 4:35 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
It's long past time for Justin to take a walk in the snow.
posted by yyz at 4:40 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]
posted by yyz at 4:40 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]
"Canada's middle class" Fuck you too, Jag. I'm old enough to remember when the NDP at least pretended to be a workers party.
posted by rodlymight at 4:56 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
posted by rodlymight at 4:56 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
I think two things went into the calculus the NDP used to get here.
1) They are the labour party and enough of their caucus is angry about the Liberals forcing a quick end to the rail workers strike that they can't work with the Liberals right now.
2) They're not going to beat JT but think they might beat his successor in the election after this one. They need a situation where both the Liberals AND Conservatives become wildly unpopular at the same time. Otherwise they max out as official opposition like in 2011 or propping up a minority government like they were up until today. So if the post-JT Liberals remain unpopular and there's a big push-back on PP's upcoming reign, then the NDP can slide in as the alternative to both.
For everyone saying the Libs and NDP should team up like the left-leaning parties did in France, we just had a thread here last week covering how the Liberal Party might campaign from the left, they govern from the centre-right. That team up is never going to happen, as much as I'd like to see a unified left-leaning party regularly trounce a Conservative Party that has trouble getting more than 42% of the popular vote yet runs the nation half the time.
posted by thecjm at 5:29 PM on September 4 [7 favorites]
1) They are the labour party and enough of their caucus is angry about the Liberals forcing a quick end to the rail workers strike that they can't work with the Liberals right now.
2) They're not going to beat JT but think they might beat his successor in the election after this one. They need a situation where both the Liberals AND Conservatives become wildly unpopular at the same time. Otherwise they max out as official opposition like in 2011 or propping up a minority government like they were up until today. So if the post-JT Liberals remain unpopular and there's a big push-back on PP's upcoming reign, then the NDP can slide in as the alternative to both.
For everyone saying the Libs and NDP should team up like the left-leaning parties did in France, we just had a thread here last week covering how the Liberal Party might campaign from the left, they govern from the centre-right. That team up is never going to happen, as much as I'd like to see a unified left-leaning party regularly trounce a Conservative Party that has trouble getting more than 42% of the popular vote yet runs the nation half the time.
posted by thecjm at 5:29 PM on September 4 [7 favorites]
The notion of Poilievre and Doug Ford in power at the same time is making me breathe shallowly into this here paper bag.
JT's time has been up for a while...but boy howdy the alternative seems SO MUCH WORSE.
posted by hearthpig at 5:40 PM on September 4 [8 favorites]
JT's time has been up for a while...but boy howdy the alternative seems SO MUCH WORSE.
posted by hearthpig at 5:40 PM on September 4 [8 favorites]
weird flex, not ok
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:49 PM on September 4
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:49 PM on September 4
As I understand it, we'd remarkably poor showings for several leftist parties in Germany recently, seemingly because they embraced neoliberal policies too much, which sounds appropriate. As thecjm suggests, NDP might've felt this binding arbitration or whatever represented a somewhat existential threat?
posted by jeffburdges at 6:15 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 6:15 PM on September 4 [4 favorites]
The CPC has been polling in majority government territory for over a year now. I don't think that continuing to prop up an anemic alliance is going to change that. Why keep doing what got us here in the first place?
Pharmacare and dental care could've been such big statement policies, with universal coverage that gave every Canadian something to vote for. But the way that they've been rolled out so far, it's little bits and pieces, it's steps "in the direction of", it's means-testing and filling out forms. I'm sure that it's helping out many people who need it, but it's being done in such a miserly, cautious way. It's depressing that this is how far 8 years got us.
Anyway, how's multi-member proportional coming along?
posted by clawsoon at 6:18 PM on September 4 [7 favorites]
Pharmacare and dental care could've been such big statement policies, with universal coverage that gave every Canadian something to vote for. But the way that they've been rolled out so far, it's little bits and pieces, it's steps "in the direction of", it's means-testing and filling out forms. I'm sure that it's helping out many people who need it, but it's being done in such a miserly, cautious way. It's depressing that this is how far 8 years got us.
Anyway, how's multi-member proportional coming along?
posted by clawsoon at 6:18 PM on September 4 [7 favorites]
I agree that Singh is to some extent untethering the NDP from JT's government. And it's maybe time for the NDP to beat some more concessions out of the Liberals in return for continued support. It doesn't necessarily mean election time unless the Liberals do something that the NDP can't support or tolerate. But please do nothing till the US election is well past.
posted by Artful Codger at 6:33 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]
posted by Artful Codger at 6:33 PM on September 4 [2 favorites]
I sigh. As a left of centre Canadian, I think the NDP had a chance to push for electoral reform, but didn't take it. I think Singh is a good policy critic, but he doesn't have the appeal to bring in more votes as a leader. But the NDP often sticks with their leaders through thick and thin. So we just resign ourselves to go through a shitty PeePee regime in order to satisfy the eternal Canadian thirst for regular regime turn-over.
posted by ovvl at 6:53 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
posted by ovvl at 6:53 PM on September 4 [5 favorites]
It seems poor timing for the NDP to do this now. 10 months ago they were polling at 20%; right now it's 17. What's the wisdom in doing this on the way down?
In the past they have been weak in framing the narrative on major issues, so breaking the deal does allow them to do that more. But it also sets the Liberals free to own the issues they're polling well on, no more credit shared.
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:46 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
In the past they have been weak in framing the narrative on major issues, so breaking the deal does allow them to do that more. But it also sets the Liberals free to own the issues they're polling well on, no more credit shared.
posted by Hardcore Poser at 9:46 PM on September 4 [1 favorite]
It seems poor timing for the NDP to do this now. 10 months ago they were polling at 20%; right now it's 17. What's the wisdom in doing this on the way down?
... to disassociate before their numbers decline even further? They can't go into the inevitable election still chained to the Liberals. It might also be a wake-up call to the Liberals to regroup and maybe consider a leadership convention?
It's possible that, going their separate ways, the two parties will each get more support than if they remained a bloc in the voters' eyes. Which increases the chance of PP being held to a minority, I hope.
Doncha just love how, after calling on the NDP to end the supply-and-confidence agreement, PP calls their ending it a stunt?
posted by Artful Codger at 6:37 AM on September 5 [5 favorites]
... to disassociate before their numbers decline even further? They can't go into the inevitable election still chained to the Liberals. It might also be a wake-up call to the Liberals to regroup and maybe consider a leadership convention?
It's possible that, going their separate ways, the two parties will each get more support than if they remained a bloc in the voters' eyes. Which increases the chance of PP being held to a minority, I hope.
Doncha just love how, after calling on the NDP to end the supply-and-confidence agreement, PP calls their ending it a stunt?
posted by Artful Codger at 6:37 AM on September 5 [5 favorites]
Doncha just love how, after calling on the NDP to end the supply-and-confidence agreement, PP calls their ending it a stunt
Huh... it's almost like PP is an empty suit who's only trick is dangerous rhetoric...
... nahhhhh
posted by Paladin1138 at 8:28 AM on September 5 [4 favorites]
Huh... it's almost like PP is an empty suit who's only trick is dangerous rhetoric...
... nahhhhh
posted by Paladin1138 at 8:28 AM on September 5 [4 favorites]
Macron named Michel Barnier as France's PM thereby forming a coalition between Ensemble and Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN). We've no idea what compramises RN extracted from Macron behind the scenes.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:58 AM on September 5 [1 favorite]
posted by jeffburdges at 10:58 AM on September 5 [1 favorite]
"En nommant Michel Barnier 1er ministre avec la bénédiction du Rassemblement national, Macron officialise sa nouvelle coalition : avec Marine Le Pen." - Manon Aubry
posted by jeffburdges at 11:17 AM on September 5
posted by jeffburdges at 11:17 AM on September 5
I keep thinking about the way the leftist parties came together in France during the recent legislative elections after initial concerns that the far-right would win a majority of seats
It would be cool if Macron recognized those results at some point.
posted by Dark Messiah at 12:01 PM on September 5
It would be cool if Macron recognized those results at some point.
posted by Dark Messiah at 12:01 PM on September 5
I can see the case for the NDP still supporting the Grits, but not making that support automatic. Make them earn it on a case by case basis. And in the process, assert the NDP as something separate and distinct and positive and Not JT.
I don't blame the NDP for not wanting to be completely tied to Trudeau and supporting him without extracting concessions where possible. Whether it pans out, I don't know. The notion that the Liberals and NDP would form some official coalition is wishful thinking at best, I don't see egos permitting that sort of thing to happen.
Also, considering the rail strike would be the second time Trudeau's government broke a strike (link), I think any party even attempting to pay lipservice to labour would be wise to distinguish themselves from the Liberals.
posted by Dark Messiah at 12:07 PM on September 5 [2 favorites]
I don't blame the NDP for not wanting to be completely tied to Trudeau and supporting him without extracting concessions where possible. Whether it pans out, I don't know. The notion that the Liberals and NDP would form some official coalition is wishful thinking at best, I don't see egos permitting that sort of thing to happen.
Also, considering the rail strike would be the second time Trudeau's government broke a strike (link), I think any party even attempting to pay lipservice to labour would be wise to distinguish themselves from the Liberals.
posted by Dark Messiah at 12:07 PM on September 5 [2 favorites]
Plus there may be a pilot's strike this month that I can't see lasting longer than a day without some kind of back to work legislation being passed.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:22 PM on September 5
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:22 PM on September 5
Liberal national campaign director says he will step down. (CTV)
Rat... ship? or just a changing of the guard? Election signal?
posted by Artful Codger at 3:46 PM on September 5
Rat... ship? or just a changing of the guard? Election signal?
posted by Artful Codger at 3:46 PM on September 5
Whomever is shaking the Magic Eight Ball in Canada right now, I demand you stop it
posted by Kitteh at 4:40 PM on September 5
posted by Kitteh at 4:40 PM on September 5
I shouted "Oh, Fuck Off!" and turned off the radio with my first when I heard this.
don’t see Singh’s end game here.
He sees the same polling numbers we do and he knows he's not going to get elected. So, when I heard Jagmeet on the CBC introduce himself as the next prime minister and go on about Justin always favoring the elites over hard working Canadians - both reailty-bending and mindlessly populist at once - I can't help think he made a deal with Pierre to shiv the liberals to protect his health care expansions. This is two days after Pierre called in him to do this. A private conversation was obviously going to accompany such a public statement.
But, Pierre being Trump-in-a-touque, will inevitably betray that promise.
still going to vote NDP tho
posted by CynicalKnight at 7:57 PM on September 5 [2 favorites]
don’t see Singh’s end game here.
He sees the same polling numbers we do and he knows he's not going to get elected. So, when I heard Jagmeet on the CBC introduce himself as the next prime minister and go on about Justin always favoring the elites over hard working Canadians - both reailty-bending and mindlessly populist at once - I can't help think he made a deal with Pierre to shiv the liberals to protect his health care expansions. This is two days after Pierre called in him to do this. A private conversation was obviously going to accompany such a public statement.
But, Pierre being Trump-in-a-touque, will inevitably betray that promise.
still going to vote NDP tho
posted by CynicalKnight at 7:57 PM on September 5 [2 favorites]
Well, I've had some time to carefully think this over, and weigh the relative merits of the decision. And I still think that this move was completely stupid.
This makes the NDP look like the party of petulant, back-stabbing babies. They are trading their influence for 1-in-a-million shot at the Big Job, and putting Canada at severe risk of a neofascist Poilievre government as a result.
My riding is a relatively safe Liberal seat (our incumbent MP won by over 8000 votes last election), and meanwhile our local NDP candidate has no online-presence, never bothers to campaign, and seems perfectly happy coming in at a distant third every election. So I know who I'll be voting for.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:04 AM on September 6
This makes the NDP look like the party of petulant, back-stabbing babies. They are trading their influence for 1-in-a-million shot at the Big Job, and putting Canada at severe risk of a neofascist Poilievre government as a result.
My riding is a relatively safe Liberal seat (our incumbent MP won by over 8000 votes last election), and meanwhile our local NDP candidate has no online-presence, never bothers to campaign, and seems perfectly happy coming in at a distant third every election. So I know who I'll be voting for.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 4:04 AM on September 6
My riding is also a historically safe Liberal riding but our MP seems to spend all his time to picking fights on Twitter. Gerretsen is a legacy MP: his dad was the mayor then an MP, Mark has done the same. I personally find him fucking useless and ineffective but Kingston keeps supporting him. There is buzz that Kingston might go back to a Conservative MP next election, but we'll see. I love my city but it is definitely the kind of place where the residents proudly fly the figurative Liberal flag but are very very conservative at heart.
posted by Kitteh at 5:14 AM on September 6 [1 favorite]
posted by Kitteh at 5:14 AM on September 6 [1 favorite]
...I still think that this move was completely stupid.
This makes the NDP look like the party of petulant, back-stabbing babies. They are trading their influence for 1-in-a-million shot at the Big Job, and putting Canada at severe risk of a neofascist Poilievre government as a result
No, I don't agree. The NDP still has the same influence; they can still play footsie with the Liberals indefinitely if they want to. But they're dropping the "guarantee" they gave the Liberals, so they can reassert themselves as a separate political party. And it serves notice that the NDP can trigger an election when it would be most advantageous for them to do so.
Of course the optics of all this - PP sez "break it", Singh sez "we're breaking it" - sucks. It might just be the case that PP got wind of the upcoming move, and wanted to get out in front of it.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:04 AM on September 6 [1 favorite]
This makes the NDP look like the party of petulant, back-stabbing babies. They are trading their influence for 1-in-a-million shot at the Big Job, and putting Canada at severe risk of a neofascist Poilievre government as a result
No, I don't agree. The NDP still has the same influence; they can still play footsie with the Liberals indefinitely if they want to. But they're dropping the "guarantee" they gave the Liberals, so they can reassert themselves as a separate political party. And it serves notice that the NDP can trigger an election when it would be most advantageous for them to do so.
Of course the optics of all this - PP sez "break it", Singh sez "we're breaking it" - sucks. It might just be the case that PP got wind of the upcoming move, and wanted to get out in front of it.
posted by Artful Codger at 8:04 AM on September 6 [1 favorite]
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