Harris has the keys
September 6, 2024 12:50 PM Subscribe
"But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote!" American University professor Allan Lichtman (previously) calls the 2024 election, according to his keys to the White House model. (SLNYT)
The NYT editors must be very sad this slipped through the cracks -- 10:1 that next week this will be completely forgotten and never mentioned again in TFP.
posted by Pedantzilla at 1:01 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Pedantzilla at 1:01 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
Still not sleeping easy. Let's not do the 2020/2016, "nah my vote won't matter" thing.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:01 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:01 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
Discussion of his system in How Reliable Is the 'Nostradamus' of US Polling?. The criticism there reflects my instincts, which is that he is good at predicting most electoral outcomes, but the same is true of most systems, whether they consider economic factors or polls or "keys." But this one is going to be damn close and weirder than usual, so I'm not putting any stock in any predictions. Plus, he thought Biden should not have dropped out because the model said he would win, which suggests a lack of humility.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:03 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:03 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
It's just astrology, but I'd rather have him and the other astrologers saying nice things that will hopefully encourage democratic turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:04 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:04 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
Spoiler alert: he says Harris.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:05 PM on September 6 [20 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:05 PM on September 6 [20 favorites]
It's a bit tea leaves for my taste in models but I don't think Lichtman was wrong about Gore- the VP won and Bush dirty tricked his way into the white house.
posted by zenon at 1:06 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
posted by zenon at 1:06 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
Given how mind-numbingly ill-informed and persistently open-minded so-called swing voters are, I'm beginning to think that the best way to reach them is to simply be a winner.
I'll forgive this meaningless prediction only because it makes Trump look like a loser. No one wants to vote for a loser.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:10 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
I'll forgive this meaningless prediction only because it makes Trump look like a loser. No one wants to vote for a loser.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:10 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
David Sedaris:
To put [undecided voters] in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”posted by kirkaracha at 1:18 PM on September 6 [47 favorites]
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?
> I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?
Yep, and both sides think exactly this way. One side says the choice is between chicken and broken glass, the other side says the choice is between a nice refreshing seltzer vs. poisoned fracking water.
Which only ends up making the undecideds look even wackier because the two sides could not possibly be further apart! If you're undecided, to put it in the most charitable way possible, you're being asked whether you want chicken or would you rather just have a seltzer. And they can't decide. They don't know if they're hungry or thirsty. That is weird as fuck.
posted by MiraK at 1:22 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Yep, and both sides think exactly this way. One side says the choice is between chicken and broken glass, the other side says the choice is between a nice refreshing seltzer vs. poisoned fracking water.
Which only ends up making the undecideds look even wackier because the two sides could not possibly be further apart! If you're undecided, to put it in the most charitable way possible, you're being asked whether you want chicken or would you rather just have a seltzer. And they can't decide. They don't know if they're hungry or thirsty. That is weird as fuck.
posted by MiraK at 1:22 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
The funny things about statistical forecasting methods is that _they can change the outcome_.
If you build a statistical model, and don't tell anyone about the prediction, the assumptions underlying the model should hold.
What happened in 2016 is that the _everyone_ heard about the predictions and decided en-masse that they weren't needed.
So yeah. Pick the race that scares you the most and keep donating? I've been throwing my money at Angela Alsobrooks in MD, and the Working Families Party in PA and Stacy Abrams' Fair Fight in GA.
I've budgeted how much I'll donate, but whenever I'm anxious or see a news story, I pick one and donate.
posted by constraint at 1:22 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
If you build a statistical model, and don't tell anyone about the prediction, the assumptions underlying the model should hold.
What happened in 2016 is that the _everyone_ heard about the predictions and decided en-masse that they weren't needed.
So yeah. Pick the race that scares you the most and keep donating? I've been throwing my money at Angela Alsobrooks in MD, and the Working Families Party in PA and Stacy Abrams' Fair Fight in GA.
I've budgeted how much I'll donate, but whenever I'm anxious or see a news story, I pick one and donate.
posted by constraint at 1:22 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
Interestingly, Lichtman's predictions failed when the judicial system put its thumb on the scales in favor of Bush Jr. back in 2000. And with Bush Jr. we got 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina and the decades of problems all downstream of that.
Back in the real world, outside of punditry, Trump today once again gets a major helping hand from our judicial system. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Not to be doomerist, but given Lichtman's predicitive record and the current pattern of federal judiciary actions, it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:31 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Back in the real world, outside of punditry, Trump today once again gets a major helping hand from our judicial system. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Not to be doomerist, but given Lichtman's predicitive record and the current pattern of federal judiciary actions, it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:31 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
As a naturalized citizen, I can't tell you how important it is to vote, but please vote. At the very least we will go down fighting for a society that could be.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:32 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:32 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
The debate could very well be a big factor, in either direction.
posted by gwint at 1:35 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by gwint at 1:35 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
Given the electoral map is set for this year, the wider the margin the harder it is, right? Like ballots get recounted etc. in close races. Didn’t Bush win by something like 537 votes in Florida? And that was with the ballot machines.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Given the electoral map is set for this year, the wider the margin the harder it is, right? Like ballots get recounted etc. in close races. Didn’t Bush win by something like 537 votes in Florida? And that was with the ballot machines.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
I think a great presidential campaign commercial would be Joe and The Veep in Joe's garage, Joe reaching over for the keys to his Corvette and tosses them with a nice slow shot of them landing in her hands, she's driving out of that garage turns the corner, pedal to the metal.
posted by clavdivs at 1:46 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 1:46 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Liz Cheney has said that her father Dick Cheney will be voting for Harris in the 2024 election.
I did not have "even Dick Fucking Cheney has realized how much of a disaster another Trump presidency would be" on my Election 2024 bingo card.
posted by orange swan at 1:48 PM on September 6 [39 favorites]
I did not have "even Dick Fucking Cheney has realized how much of a disaster another Trump presidency would be" on my Election 2024 bingo card.
posted by orange swan at 1:48 PM on September 6 [39 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day, and how long people are willing to stand in line. So the only prediction I'm waiting on at this point is a weather prediction the day before election day.
posted by jermsplan at 1:50 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
posted by jermsplan at 1:50 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Trump recently confessed that he lost the 2020 election by a whisker. Which explains Vance.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:52 PM on September 6
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:52 PM on September 6
Even aside from the fact that Lichtman's model is a textbook example of overfitting, I'm not sure how he decides what is true and what is false in his questions:
- "There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination." I'm going to be using "technically true" a lot.
- "There is no significant third party or independent campaign." I mean, technically true, but RFK Jr is still likely to get a decent fraction of votes (there's a reason he's suing to get his name taken off the ballots), and third-party candidates as a whole still poll above the margin of victory in many states (and at or close nationally, based on the last few polls in 538).
- "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Again, technically true, but a huge majority of the voters disagree.
- "Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms." See above.
- "The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." I don't know what he considers "major", but Afghanistan withdrawal, illegal immigration (whether exaggerated or not, the voting populace clearly sees this as a major failure of the Biden administration), and to a decent chunk of the population, Israel-Palestine.
- "The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs." I mean I think he's had some major successes, like uniting most of the world against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the multi-country prisoner swap, but does the general public consider those "major" successes?
- "The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero." He literally has a cult following who is willing to overthrow the government and make him a dictator. I find it baffling, but it's obvious he has a massive level of schoolyard-bully charisma, especially after the assassination attempt.
So that's eight that I would at least consider might be false on top of the three he says are false. I think calling him the Nostradamus of political predictions is pretty accurate, in that he uses vague wording to make his predictions.
posted by dirigibleman at 2:08 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
- "There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination." I'm going to be using "technically true" a lot.
- "There is no significant third party or independent campaign." I mean, technically true, but RFK Jr is still likely to get a decent fraction of votes (there's a reason he's suing to get his name taken off the ballots), and third-party candidates as a whole still poll above the margin of victory in many states (and at or close nationally, based on the last few polls in 538).
- "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Again, technically true, but a huge majority of the voters disagree.
- "Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms." See above.
- "The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." I don't know what he considers "major", but Afghanistan withdrawal, illegal immigration (whether exaggerated or not, the voting populace clearly sees this as a major failure of the Biden administration), and to a decent chunk of the population, Israel-Palestine.
- "The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs." I mean I think he's had some major successes, like uniting most of the world against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the multi-country prisoner swap, but does the general public consider those "major" successes?
- "The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero." He literally has a cult following who is willing to overthrow the government and make him a dictator. I find it baffling, but it's obvious he has a massive level of schoolyard-bully charisma, especially after the assassination attempt.
So that's eight that I would at least consider might be false on top of the three he says are false. I think calling him the Nostradamus of political predictions is pretty accurate, in that he uses vague wording to make his predictions.
posted by dirigibleman at 2:08 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
"The Nostradamus of US polling" is not the flex they think that label is. Also as the article notes without comment
Economist does show how starkly anti-democratic the electoral college is though. Their most likely estimate for the national popular vote is Harris 48%, Trump 45%. But their prediction is 270 votes for Harris, 268 for Trump, and a 50/49 chance of winning for the two. In general a Democratic candidate has to win the popular vote by about 4% to win the presidency in a typical political distribution. The situation in the Senate is even worse.
posted by Nelson at 2:12 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats”If you want actual predictions based on real polling data, I think The Economist (scroll down to "How our forecast has changed over time") and 270 to win have the best estimates. Note both are looking at actual electoral college votes, not the overall popularity contests.
Economist does show how starkly anti-democratic the electoral college is though. Their most likely estimate for the national popular vote is Harris 48%, Trump 45%. But their prediction is 270 votes for Harris, 268 for Trump, and a 50/49 chance of winning for the two. In general a Democratic candidate has to win the popular vote by about 4% to win the presidency in a typical political distribution. The situation in the Senate is even worse.
posted by Nelson at 2:12 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Former Vice President Dick Cheney will vote for Harris, his daughter Liz says.
Man, things have so changed since first I signed up here. It's like living in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? -- at any moment Wilbur Mercer will walk out of a wall and restore back to life and limbs a spider the replicant Roy Batty has just pulled four legs off.
posted by y2karl at 2:12 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Man, things have so changed since first I signed up here. It's like living in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? -- at any moment Wilbur Mercer will walk out of a wall and restore back to life and limbs a spider the replicant Roy Batty has just pulled four legs off.
posted by y2karl at 2:12 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
I don't think this election will end up being all that close. There's nowhere near enough incel men who weren't already voting for TFG to counterbalance the great die-off of his followers over the last four years and the huge upswing in younger/browner/girler people the Biden --> Harris swap has brought on. AZ has abortion on the ballot. The only swing state she might lose is my state of GA, and I don't think she'll lose it, either.
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 2:15 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 2:15 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Liz and Dick are nice to see but until I start seeing in office and not retiring GOPers come out and say they're not voting for Trump, I'm still worrying.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:19 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:19 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Everyone: The NYT is making a horserace out of democracy's existential crisis. They should be looking at the stakes, not the odds.
NYT: Look, we get it. Now, what if we made a video where it's a literal race between two essentially equivalent contestants?
posted by HE Amb. T. S. L. DuVal at 2:21 PM on September 6 [7 favorites]
NYT: Look, we get it. Now, what if we made a video where it's a literal race between two essentially equivalent contestants?
posted by HE Amb. T. S. L. DuVal at 2:21 PM on September 6 [7 favorites]
Trump recently confessed that he lost the 2020 election by a whisker.
I wouldn't read too much into that. He also said that there were fraudulent votes, I expect meaning more than a whisker's width.
posted by BWA at 2:23 PM on September 6
I wouldn't read too much into that. He also said that there were fraudulent votes, I expect meaning more than a whisker's width.
posted by BWA at 2:23 PM on September 6
Andrew Gelman is predictably harsh on this.
short answers are:posted by mark k at 2:26 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
(a) Some elections are not close at all and any prediction method will get them right,
(b) Some elections are so close that for a prediction method to pick the winner is just chance, like picking a coin flip,
(c) There is information in the vote margin that is being thrown away if you just try to predict the winner; additional information is being thrown away by using true/false questions.
[ . . . ]
And this just took the Times’s reputation down one notch for me. Before, I’d have characterized them as being occasional suckers. Now I’d say they’re active promulgators of junk science.
I don't think this election will end up being all that close.
My prediction is that Trump will take a shellacking in the popular vote, and my worry is the electoral college results.
posted by orange swan at 2:26 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
My prediction is that Trump will take a shellacking in the popular vote, and my worry is the electoral college results.
posted by orange swan at 2:26 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
Ban SLNYT posts imo
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 PM on September 6 [7 favorites]
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 PM on September 6 [7 favorites]
Allan Lichtman reminds me way too much of Decision Desk Darwin from Succession who gets taken out on election night by Greg's wasabi and lemon flavored LaCroix. I support some of the comments, these "keys" are way too pat and I don't think some of his explanations even make sense, even if you're supporting the Democrats.
I think this race will be close. Very close. I still remain skeptical the Democrats can achieve escape velocity from the Electoral College. Hillary and Biden were doing substantially better in the polling averages at this time; she lost and he barely won. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember the 2016 election night megathreads here and how cruelly disillusioned everyone was. I'm trying not to get my hopes up this time.
posted by fortitude25 at 2:38 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
I think this race will be close. Very close. I still remain skeptical the Democrats can achieve escape velocity from the Electoral College. Hillary and Biden were doing substantially better in the polling averages at this time; she lost and he barely won. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember the 2016 election night megathreads here and how cruelly disillusioned everyone was. I'm trying not to get my hopes up this time.
posted by fortitude25 at 2:38 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:45 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:45 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
Never celebrate until you’re over the line.
posted by mhoye at 2:45 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
posted by mhoye at 2:45 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
Lots. Lots and lots. They're all showing up in November, and we have to show up and vote to outnumber them.
Anyone who sits out or votes third party is truly voting, despite whatever protestations they may make, an empirically predictable affirmative vote for "whoever wins."
posted by tclark at 2:51 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Lots. Lots and lots. They're all showing up in November, and we have to show up and vote to outnumber them.
Anyone who sits out or votes third party is truly voting, despite whatever protestations they may make, an empirically predictable affirmative vote for "whoever wins."
posted by tclark at 2:51 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
So the only time he was wrong was when the other side cheated their way to victory.
Huh.
posted by mazola at 2:52 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Huh.
posted by mazola at 2:52 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Dick Cheney Statement
"In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.
"As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:06 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
"In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.
"As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:06 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
Updated assessment of Dick Cheney: a land of exactly one contrast.
posted by away for regrooving at 3:14 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
posted by away for regrooving at 3:14 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day, and how long people are willing to stand in line.
Seriously, was thinking this yesterday, that you take the same electorate and it's either like 270 for Trump or 292 for Harris depending on like, the state of the heat waves or whatever.
posted by kensington314 at 3:22 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Seriously, was thinking this yesterday, that you take the same electorate and it's either like 270 for Trump or 292 for Harris depending on like, the state of the heat waves or whatever.
posted by kensington314 at 3:22 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Dick is a man of principle when no money is at stake, definitely old school.
posted by Brian B. at 3:24 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 3:24 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
Living in Interesting times sucks pretty much all of the time, don't it?
posted by y2karl at 3:26 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 3:26 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
In hindsight, W and Cheney turned out to be the little bads of 21st century American politics and Trump is the Big Bad. In Buffy terms, Bush and Dick were the vampires who showed up in town, strutted around, caused all sorts of mayhem and seemed like the worst thing ever... until later in the season when the great eldritch evil crawled out of the hellmouth, the actual apocalypse loomed and the little bads wanted nothing to do with that shit.
(Sigh. Dammit, Joss.)
posted by Ursula Hitler at 3:42 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
(Sigh. Dammit, Joss.)
posted by Ursula Hitler at 3:42 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
Man, how else could I keep up with postpostcontemporary culture without being a member here?
posted by y2karl at 3:48 PM on September 6
posted by y2karl at 3:48 PM on September 6
In hindsight, W and Cheney turned out to be the little bads of 21st century American politics and Trump is the Big Bad.
No. Fucking no.
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War. Trump is the rotten harvest America is reaping from seeds that Bush planted and I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:48 PM on September 6 [28 favorites]
No. Fucking no.
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War. Trump is the rotten harvest America is reaping from seeds that Bush planted and I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:48 PM on September 6 [28 favorites]
As discussed on PSA today, Harris has a tough fight in Pennsylvania, and if she loses it things get complicated. She’d have to win NC or GA plus another state or something. So yes, every single person needs to get out and vote , swing state or no. And someone needs to slap the Internet out of these under 30 men’s’ hands, because what the FUCK are they doing going down the Trump path? Women under 30 are firmly breaking for Harris, but men are like 20-30 points to the right of them. We needs straight women to do a hashtag #Lysistrata2024 or something. Let those guys be all alone in the MAGA zone.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:53 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:53 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
I’m with you 100% that Gen Z incels need the Internet slapped out of their hands. But Lysistrata gambits don’t work against a movement founded on male entitlement and control. If straight women could actually fix misogyny by withholding consent, it’d be long gone.
Put more succinctly, Cheney isn’t the only dick that shows up uninvited.
posted by armeowda at 4:07 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
Put more succinctly, Cheney isn’t the only dick that shows up uninvited.
posted by armeowda at 4:07 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War.
Covid would like a word with you. As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care (and yes I recognize that both of those disasters involved multiple people being awful, but it's not like Bush was the only one involved in invading Iraq).
I mean, I hate seeing Bush minimized as well. The thing is, just like you don't ACTUALLY have to pick a favorite flavor of ice cream, you can think both men were catastrophic in different ways as president.
posted by Gygesringtone at 4:10 PM on September 6 [18 favorites]
Covid would like a word with you. As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care (and yes I recognize that both of those disasters involved multiple people being awful, but it's not like Bush was the only one involved in invading Iraq).
I mean, I hate seeing Bush minimized as well. The thing is, just like you don't ACTUALLY have to pick a favorite flavor of ice cream, you can think both men were catastrophic in different ways as president.
posted by Gygesringtone at 4:10 PM on September 6 [18 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day
One way to mitigate weather concerns is to help get folks to vote early. Early voting starts on October 15 in Georgia. I've noticed that a number of phone banking and text banking campaigns this year seem to be about getting folks to vote as early as possible - it has so many benefits:
* if there's a problem with your ballot, there may be a better chance to cure it
* once you've voted, the campaigns know (usually) and (a) stop pestering you and (b) can focus on folks who haven't voted yet
* it of course eliminates the possibility of not getting to vote on Election Day due to rain, your car breaking down, getting sick, or whatever
If you have time or money to contribute, most of the organizations working to turn out the vote are probably working on turning out the early vote. Anything you can pitch in can help.
posted by kristi at 4:14 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
One way to mitigate weather concerns is to help get folks to vote early. Early voting starts on October 15 in Georgia. I've noticed that a number of phone banking and text banking campaigns this year seem to be about getting folks to vote as early as possible - it has so many benefits:
* if there's a problem with your ballot, there may be a better chance to cure it
* once you've voted, the campaigns know (usually) and (a) stop pestering you and (b) can focus on folks who haven't voted yet
* it of course eliminates the possibility of not getting to vote on Election Day due to rain, your car breaking down, getting sick, or whatever
If you have time or money to contribute, most of the organizations working to turn out the vote are probably working on turning out the early vote. Anything you can pitch in can help.
posted by kristi at 4:14 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
And with Bush Jr. we got 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina and the decades of problems all downstream of that.
And to think after Katrina I actually owned the URL heckuvajob.com for two years but was grinding 60+ hr weeks and too demoralized to effectively activate it in my "spare time".
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:19 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
And to think after Katrina I actually owned the URL heckuvajob.com for two years but was grinding 60+ hr weeks and too demoralized to effectively activate it in my "spare time".
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:19 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War.
W wasn't a full-on fascist. Let me put it this way: near the end of the W administration, some of us on the left worried he might try to install himself as dictator for life. In hindsight, that feels kind of silly. Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible. Trump already sicc'ed his goons on the capital once, and there is legit reason to believe that if he gets in this November, that's it, we'll never vote again.
I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
And I will not countenance the implication that those of us who hate W more than Trump are basing it purely on vibes.
W was a president who committed heinous crimes. Trump was a heinous criminal who became president, a sneering, putty-faced crook who somehow escaped from the Dick Tracy movie. During his administration he committed crimes all day, every day. And you wanna talk morals? Remember the pussy-grabbing, the sexual assault convictions, the 34 felonies, the cozying up to dictators, the "shithole countries," the "good people on both sides," et fucking cetera?
My memory is fine, thanks. I'm old enough that I was in the streets, protesting W. I stood outside his hotel with a great mass of people and we all shouted at him, for all the good it did. And yeah, I'm gonna die on the hill that Trump is worse than George W. Bush ever was. Trump is more sadistic, he's dumber, he's crazier and he is just goddamn worse.
I mean... Covid! Fucking Covid!
posted by Ursula Hitler at 4:32 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
W wasn't a full-on fascist. Let me put it this way: near the end of the W administration, some of us on the left worried he might try to install himself as dictator for life. In hindsight, that feels kind of silly. Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible. Trump already sicc'ed his goons on the capital once, and there is legit reason to believe that if he gets in this November, that's it, we'll never vote again.
I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
And I will not countenance the implication that those of us who hate W more than Trump are basing it purely on vibes.
W was a president who committed heinous crimes. Trump was a heinous criminal who became president, a sneering, putty-faced crook who somehow escaped from the Dick Tracy movie. During his administration he committed crimes all day, every day. And you wanna talk morals? Remember the pussy-grabbing, the sexual assault convictions, the 34 felonies, the cozying up to dictators, the "shithole countries," the "good people on both sides," et fucking cetera?
My memory is fine, thanks. I'm old enough that I was in the streets, protesting W. I stood outside his hotel with a great mass of people and we all shouted at him, for all the good it did. And yeah, I'm gonna die on the hill that Trump is worse than George W. Bush ever was. Trump is more sadistic, he's dumber, he's crazier and he is just goddamn worse.
I mean... Covid! Fucking Covid!
posted by Ursula Hitler at 4:32 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
Okay but GWB is one sick fuck
Not like normal bad or "little bad" but a sick, sadistic fuck. Hope we can all agree about that, without having to have a definitive ranking of our monsters!
posted by kensington314 at 4:47 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Not like normal bad or "little bad" but a sick, sadistic fuck. Hope we can all agree about that, without having to have a definitive ranking of our monsters!
posted by kensington314 at 4:47 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Both terrible, Trump is definitely worse. The only reason why he doesn't have his own Iraq-War-level debacle was because of a lack of opportunity. How many millions of people died during Covid because of his ineptitude and selfishness?
posted by ishmael at 4:48 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by ishmael at 4:48 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Electoral College. The election will be decided by a handful of middle-aged white people in swing states.
Tbh based on the number of times I've been asked how I can walk through Central Park because it's so dangerous with all the immigrants, I don't feel optimistic.
Gotta hand it to the NY Times though for finally clickbaiting me into watching one of their videos!
posted by betweenthebars at 5:24 PM on September 6
Tbh based on the number of times I've been asked how I can walk through Central Park because it's so dangerous with all the immigrants, I don't feel optimistic.
Gotta hand it to the NY Times though for finally clickbaiting me into watching one of their videos!
posted by betweenthebars at 5:24 PM on September 6
> Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible
*Exchanges wistful looks with Al Gore*
posted by GeckoDundee at 5:33 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
*Exchanges wistful looks with Al Gore*
posted by GeckoDundee at 5:33 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
I have only two words about Dick Cheney's endorsement of Harris:
Stopped clock.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:45 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Stopped clock.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:45 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
i'm old enough to remember W.
i'm old enough to remember H - who was worse than W, because he is actually, terrifyingly intelligent. and Dick Cheney is not our friend, he's just the enemy of our enemy at the moment, for a moment. he's simply come to the realization that he might have to reap what he and his cronies have sown.
i'm even old enough to remember Reagan.
heck - i remember NIXON.
and you know what? it's not like picking a favorite ice cream flavor of evil.
it's shit, all the way down.
posted by lapolla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
i'm old enough to remember H - who was worse than W, because he is actually, terrifyingly intelligent. and Dick Cheney is not our friend, he's just the enemy of our enemy at the moment, for a moment. he's simply come to the realization that he might have to reap what he and his cronies have sown.
i'm even old enough to remember Reagan.
heck - i remember NIXON.
and you know what? it's not like picking a favorite ice cream flavor of evil.
it's shit, all the way down.
posted by lapolla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
A lot of people are point to COVID as the prime example of why Trump is reputedly worse than CheneyCo, conveniently ignoring that:
1. COVID only seems worse because Trump's criminal incompetence affected American citizens and not innocent brown people in the Middle East (and ignores Katrina, the Dept of "Homeland Security," the 2008 financial crisis, etc, etc, etc...);
2. A large part of the COVID deaths in the US are the direct result of the right-wing hate machine convincing people it was all a hoax;
3. The pandemic IS STILL GOING ON, and still killing thousands of Americans a week! And the Biden administration is doing... fuck all? No, I take that back -- they actively encouraged Americans to pretend it doesn't exist anymore, and cancelled any and all federal support to the victims of it. So, actually as bad if not worse than anything Trump did. And has Harris even mentioned it in her campaign?
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
posted by Pedantzilla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
1. COVID only seems worse because Trump's criminal incompetence affected American citizens and not innocent brown people in the Middle East (and ignores Katrina, the Dept of "Homeland Security," the 2008 financial crisis, etc, etc, etc...);
2. A large part of the COVID deaths in the US are the direct result of the right-wing hate machine convincing people it was all a hoax;
3. The pandemic IS STILL GOING ON, and still killing thousands of Americans a week! And the Biden administration is doing... fuck all? No, I take that back -- they actively encouraged Americans to pretend it doesn't exist anymore, and cancelled any and all federal support to the victims of it. So, actually as bad if not worse than anything Trump did. And has Harris even mentioned it in her campaign?
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
posted by Pedantzilla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Accepting?
posted by box at 5:53 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
posted by box at 5:53 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
And Covid arguably happened because of Trump. A lot of people missed this, because the media is incompetent and has the attention span of a kitten. In 2017, the GOP cut the Centers of Disease Control fund that Prevention and Public Health Fund, which fights diseases before they turn into epidemics.
posted by joannemerriam at 5:56 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 5:56 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
oh and yeah - i know, the Democrats have their own petty tyrants, corruption, misogyny, and failures -from Covid to the supreme court to foreign policy. but they look less shitty, in comparison.
posted by lapolla at 5:58 PM on September 6
posted by lapolla at 5:58 PM on September 6
Reaganism + Rupert Murdoch = Bush and Trump
posted by brachiopod at 6:13 PM on September 6
posted by brachiopod at 6:13 PM on September 6
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
Does it? I've seen no indication that Harris went and kissed the ring. Liz Cheney is also personally in Trump's crosshairs, as Dick probably is, and the basic self-preservation instinct to avoid getting gulag'd or killed after a show trial may simply be kicking in.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:14 PM on September 6
Does it? I've seen no indication that Harris went and kissed the ring. Liz Cheney is also personally in Trump's crosshairs, as Dick probably is, and the basic self-preservation instinct to avoid getting gulag'd or killed after a show trial may simply be kicking in.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:14 PM on September 6
>which fights diseases before they turn into epidemics
https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/15/virus-screenings-jam-us-airports-atrocious-flyer-says
posted by torokunai at 6:15 PM on September 6
https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/15/virus-screenings-jam-us-airports-atrocious-flyer-says
posted by torokunai at 6:15 PM on September 6
There was a fifty two card playing deck of the little tyrants Bush implanted into the government and the shit they were doing from the department of the interior to ambassadors. I think it was 11 trillion dollars when he left office that we were in the hole for? We then jumped up to about 20 trillion and again, root cause would be Bush. His shit led to 20 goddamn years of spinning our wheels. Thousands of people who worked in the services fucked over, a massive expansion of defense spending via contractors, the Department of Homeland Security, military surplus being slurped down by local police, putting idiot fear on a pedestal after the shoe bomber and the shrieking about anthrax.
And the absolute best part? This started with a fucking putsch of suits. Jan 6th was coup two. Gore would have won, so republicans staged the Brooks Brothers riot and got SCOTUS to turf the election to them as a result.
So many little things have been lost to time but the Bush crew were (in contrast to Trump) competent at stripping the wiring and stuffing their pockets and they did it for EIGHT YEARS.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 PM on September 6
And the absolute best part? This started with a fucking putsch of suits. Jan 6th was coup two. Gore would have won, so republicans staged the Brooks Brothers riot and got SCOTUS to turf the election to them as a result.
So many little things have been lost to time but the Bush crew were (in contrast to Trump) competent at stripping the wiring and stuffing their pockets and they did it for EIGHT YEARS.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 PM on September 6
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posted by doctornemo at 12:51 PM on September 6