Harris has the keys
September 6, 2024 12:50 PM Subscribe
"But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote!" American University professor Allan Lichtman (previously) calls the 2024 election, according to his keys to the White House model. (SLNYT)
The NYT editors must be very sad this slipped through the cracks -- 10:1 that next week this will be completely forgotten and never mentioned again in TFP.
posted by Pedantzilla at 1:01 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
posted by Pedantzilla at 1:01 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Still not sleeping easy. Let's not do the 2020/2016, "nah my vote won't matter" thing.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:01 PM on September 6 [44 favorites]
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 1:01 PM on September 6 [44 favorites]
Discussion of his system in How Reliable Is the 'Nostradamus' of US Polling?. The criticism there reflects my instincts, which is that he is good at predicting most electoral outcomes, but the same is true of most systems, whether they consider economic factors or polls or "keys." But this one is going to be damn close and weirder than usual, so I'm not putting any stock in any predictions. Plus, he thought Biden should not have dropped out because the model said he would win, which suggests a lack of humility.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:03 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 1:03 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
It's just astrology, but I'd rather have him and the other astrologers saying nice things that will hopefully encourage democratic turnout.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:04 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 1:04 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
Spoiler alert: he says Harris.
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:05 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
posted by jenfullmoon at 1:05 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
It's a bit tea leaves for my taste in models but I don't think Lichtman was wrong about Gore- the VP won and Bush dirty tricked his way into the white house.
posted by zenon at 1:06 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
posted by zenon at 1:06 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
Given how mind-numbingly ill-informed and persistently open-minded so-called swing voters are, I'm beginning to think that the best way to reach them is to simply be a winner.
I'll forgive this meaningless prediction only because it makes Trump look like a loser. No one wants to vote for a loser.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:10 PM on September 6 [21 favorites]
I'll forgive this meaningless prediction only because it makes Trump look like a loser. No one wants to vote for a loser.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 1:10 PM on September 6 [21 favorites]
David Sedaris:
To put [undecided voters] in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”posted by kirkaracha at 1:18 PM on September 6 [87 favorites]
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?
> I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?
Yep, and both sides think exactly this way. One side says the choice is between chicken and broken glass, the other side says the choice is between a nice refreshing seltzer vs. poisoned fracking water.
Which only ends up making the undecideds look even wackier because the two sides could not possibly be further apart! If you're undecided, to put it in the most charitable way possible, you're being asked whether you want chicken or would you rather just have a seltzer. And they can't decide. They don't know if they're hungry or thirsty. That is weird as fuck.
posted by MiraK at 1:22 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Yep, and both sides think exactly this way. One side says the choice is between chicken and broken glass, the other side says the choice is between a nice refreshing seltzer vs. poisoned fracking water.
Which only ends up making the undecideds look even wackier because the two sides could not possibly be further apart! If you're undecided, to put it in the most charitable way possible, you're being asked whether you want chicken or would you rather just have a seltzer. And they can't decide. They don't know if they're hungry or thirsty. That is weird as fuck.
posted by MiraK at 1:22 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
The funny things about statistical forecasting methods is that _they can change the outcome_.
If you build a statistical model, and don't tell anyone about the prediction, the assumptions underlying the model should hold.
What happened in 2016 is that the _everyone_ heard about the predictions and decided en-masse that they weren't needed.
So yeah. Pick the race that scares you the most and keep donating? I've been throwing my money at Angela Alsobrooks in MD, and the Working Families Party in PA and Stacy Abrams' Fair Fight in GA.
I've budgeted how much I'll donate, but whenever I'm anxious or see a news story, I pick one and donate.
posted by constraint at 1:22 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
If you build a statistical model, and don't tell anyone about the prediction, the assumptions underlying the model should hold.
What happened in 2016 is that the _everyone_ heard about the predictions and decided en-masse that they weren't needed.
So yeah. Pick the race that scares you the most and keep donating? I've been throwing my money at Angela Alsobrooks in MD, and the Working Families Party in PA and Stacy Abrams' Fair Fight in GA.
I've budgeted how much I'll donate, but whenever I'm anxious or see a news story, I pick one and donate.
posted by constraint at 1:22 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
Interestingly, Lichtman's predictions failed when the judicial system put its thumb on the scales in favor of Bush Jr. back in 2000. And with Bush Jr. we got 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina and the decades of problems all downstream of that.
Back in the real world, outside of punditry, Trump today once again gets a major helping hand from our judicial system. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Not to be doomerist, but given Lichtman's predicitive record and the current pattern of federal judiciary actions, it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:31 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
Back in the real world, outside of punditry, Trump today once again gets a major helping hand from our judicial system. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Not to be doomerist, but given Lichtman's predicitive record and the current pattern of federal judiciary actions, it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:31 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
As a naturalized citizen, I can't tell you how important it is to vote, but please vote. At the very least we will go down fighting for a society that could be.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:32 PM on September 6 [31 favorites]
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 1:32 PM on September 6 [31 favorites]
The debate could very well be a big factor, in either direction.
posted by gwint at 1:35 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by gwint at 1:35 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
it seems hard to see how we win a fair and free election when the judicial system is rigged again and again in favor of letting Trump break our laws and walk away.
Given the electoral map is set for this year, the wider the margin the harder it is, right? Like ballots get recounted etc. in close races. Didn’t Bush win by something like 537 votes in Florida? And that was with the ballot machines.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
Given the electoral map is set for this year, the wider the margin the harder it is, right? Like ballots get recounted etc. in close races. Didn’t Bush win by something like 537 votes in Florida? And that was with the ballot machines.
posted by warriorqueen at 1:40 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
I think a great presidential campaign commercial would be Joe and The Veep in Joe's garage, Joe reaching over for the keys to his Corvette and tosses them with a nice slow shot of them landing in her hands, she's driving out of that garage turns the corner, pedal to the metal.
posted by clavdivs at 1:46 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
posted by clavdivs at 1:46 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
Liz Cheney has said that her father Dick Cheney will be voting for Harris in the 2024 election.
I did not have "even Dick Fucking Cheney has realized how much of a disaster another Trump presidency would be" on my Election 2024 bingo card.
posted by orange swan at 1:48 PM on September 6 [78 favorites]
I did not have "even Dick Fucking Cheney has realized how much of a disaster another Trump presidency would be" on my Election 2024 bingo card.
posted by orange swan at 1:48 PM on September 6 [78 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day, and how long people are willing to stand in line. So the only prediction I'm waiting on at this point is a weather prediction the day before election day.
posted by jermsplan at 1:50 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
posted by jermsplan at 1:50 PM on September 6 [11 favorites]
Trump recently confessed that he lost the 2020 election by a whisker. Which explains Vance.
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:52 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by dances_with_sneetches at 1:52 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Even aside from the fact that Lichtman's model is a textbook example of overfitting, I'm not sure how he decides what is true and what is false in his questions:
- "There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination." I'm going to be using "technically true" a lot.
- "There is no significant third party or independent campaign." I mean, technically true, but RFK Jr is still likely to get a decent fraction of votes (there's a reason he's suing to get his name taken off the ballots), and third-party candidates as a whole still poll above the margin of victory in many states (and at or close nationally, based on the last few polls in 538).
- "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Again, technically true, but a huge majority of the voters disagree.
- "Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms." See above.
- "The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." I don't know what he considers "major", but Afghanistan withdrawal, illegal immigration (whether exaggerated or not, the voting populace clearly sees this as a major failure of the Biden administration), and to a decent chunk of the population, Israel-Palestine.
- "The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs." I mean I think he's had some major successes, like uniting most of the world against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the multi-country prisoner swap, but does the general public consider those "major" successes?
- "The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero." He literally has a cult following who is willing to overthrow the government and make him a dictator. I find it baffling, but it's obvious he has a massive level of schoolyard-bully charisma, especially after the assassination attempt.
So that's eight that I would at least consider might be false on top of the three he says are false. I think calling him the Nostradamus of political predictions is pretty accurate, in that he uses vague wording to make his predictions.
posted by dirigibleman at 2:08 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
- "There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination." I'm going to be using "technically true" a lot.
- "There is no significant third party or independent campaign." I mean, technically true, but RFK Jr is still likely to get a decent fraction of votes (there's a reason he's suing to get his name taken off the ballots), and third-party candidates as a whole still poll above the margin of victory in many states (and at or close nationally, based on the last few polls in 538).
- "The economy is not in recession during the election campaign." Again, technically true, but a huge majority of the voters disagree.
- "Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms." See above.
- "The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs." I don't know what he considers "major", but Afghanistan withdrawal, illegal immigration (whether exaggerated or not, the voting populace clearly sees this as a major failure of the Biden administration), and to a decent chunk of the population, Israel-Palestine.
- "The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs." I mean I think he's had some major successes, like uniting most of the world against Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the multi-country prisoner swap, but does the general public consider those "major" successes?
- "The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero." He literally has a cult following who is willing to overthrow the government and make him a dictator. I find it baffling, but it's obvious he has a massive level of schoolyard-bully charisma, especially after the assassination attempt.
So that's eight that I would at least consider might be false on top of the three he says are false. I think calling him the Nostradamus of political predictions is pretty accurate, in that he uses vague wording to make his predictions.
posted by dirigibleman at 2:08 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
"The Nostradamus of US polling" is not the flex they think that label is. Also as the article notes without comment
Economist does show how starkly anti-democratic the electoral college is though. Their most likely estimate for the national popular vote is Harris 48%, Trump 45%. But their prediction is 270 votes for Harris, 268 for Trump, and a 50/49 chance of winning for the two. In general a Democratic candidate has to win the popular vote by about 4% to win the presidency in a typical political distribution. The situation in the Senate is even worse.
posted by Nelson at 2:12 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats”If you want actual predictions based on real polling data, I think The Economist (scroll down to "How our forecast has changed over time") and 270 to win have the best estimates. Note both are looking at actual electoral college votes, not the overall popularity contests.
Economist does show how starkly anti-democratic the electoral college is though. Their most likely estimate for the national popular vote is Harris 48%, Trump 45%. But their prediction is 270 votes for Harris, 268 for Trump, and a 50/49 chance of winning for the two. In general a Democratic candidate has to win the popular vote by about 4% to win the presidency in a typical political distribution. The situation in the Senate is even worse.
posted by Nelson at 2:12 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
Former Vice President Dick Cheney will vote for Harris, his daughter Liz says.
Man, things have so changed since first I signed up here. It's like living in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? -- at any moment Wilbur Mercer will walk out of a wall and restore back to life and limbs a spider the replicant Roy Batty has just pulled four legs off.
posted by y2karl at 2:12 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
Man, things have so changed since first I signed up here. It's like living in Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? -- at any moment Wilbur Mercer will walk out of a wall and restore back to life and limbs a spider the replicant Roy Batty has just pulled four legs off.
posted by y2karl at 2:12 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
I don't think this election will end up being all that close. There's nowhere near enough incel men who weren't already voting for TFG to counterbalance the great die-off of his followers over the last four years and the huge upswing in younger/browner/girler people the Biden --> Harris swap has brought on. AZ has abortion on the ballot. The only swing state she might lose is my state of GA, and I don't think she'll lose it, either.
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 2:15 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 2:15 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
Liz and Dick are nice to see but until I start seeing in office and not retiring GOPers come out and say they're not voting for Trump, I'm still worrying.
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:19 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
posted by 922257033c4a0f3cecdbd819a46d626999d1af4a at 2:19 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
Everyone: The NYT is making a horserace out of democracy's existential crisis. They should be looking at the stakes, not the odds.
NYT: Look, we get it. Now, what if we made a video where it's a literal race between two essentially equivalent contestants?
posted by HE Amb. T. S. L. DuVal at 2:21 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
NYT: Look, we get it. Now, what if we made a video where it's a literal race between two essentially equivalent contestants?
posted by HE Amb. T. S. L. DuVal at 2:21 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
Trump recently confessed that he lost the 2020 election by a whisker.
I wouldn't read too much into that. He also said that there were fraudulent votes, I expect meaning more than a whisker's width.
posted by BWA at 2:23 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
I wouldn't read too much into that. He also said that there were fraudulent votes, I expect meaning more than a whisker's width.
posted by BWA at 2:23 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Andrew Gelman is predictably harsh on this.
short answers are:posted by mark k at 2:26 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
(a) Some elections are not close at all and any prediction method will get them right,
(b) Some elections are so close that for a prediction method to pick the winner is just chance, like picking a coin flip,
(c) There is information in the vote margin that is being thrown away if you just try to predict the winner; additional information is being thrown away by using true/false questions.
[ . . . ]
And this just took the Times’s reputation down one notch for me. Before, I’d have characterized them as being occasional suckers. Now I’d say they’re active promulgators of junk science.
I don't think this election will end up being all that close.
My prediction is that Trump will take a shellacking in the popular vote, and my worry is the electoral college results.
posted by orange swan at 2:26 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
My prediction is that Trump will take a shellacking in the popular vote, and my worry is the electoral college results.
posted by orange swan at 2:26 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
Ban SLNYT posts imo
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 PM on September 6 [18 favorites]
posted by tovarisch at 2:28 PM on September 6 [18 favorites]
Allan Lichtman reminds me way too much of Decision Desk Darwin from Succession who gets taken out on election night by Greg's wasabi and lemon flavored LaCroix. I support some of the comments, these "keys" are way too pat and I don't think some of his explanations even make sense, even if you're supporting the Democrats.
I think this race will be close. Very close. I still remain skeptical the Democrats can achieve escape velocity from the Electoral College. Hillary and Biden were doing substantially better in the polling averages at this time; she lost and he barely won. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember the 2016 election night megathreads here and how cruelly disillusioned everyone was. I'm trying not to get my hopes up this time.
posted by fortitude25 at 2:38 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
I think this race will be close. Very close. I still remain skeptical the Democrats can achieve escape velocity from the Electoral College. Hillary and Biden were doing substantially better in the polling averages at this time; she lost and he barely won. Maybe I'm wrong but I remember the 2016 election night megathreads here and how cruelly disillusioned everyone was. I'm trying not to get my hopes up this time.
posted by fortitude25 at 2:38 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
The universe of "people who will speak to a pollster" is not representative of "likely voters". They can tweak their models all they want, but they're still not catching a representative sample of voters.
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:45 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
posted by Ursula Hitler at 2:45 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
Never celebrate until you’re over the line.
posted by mhoye at 2:45 PM on September 6 [25 favorites]
posted by mhoye at 2:45 PM on September 6 [25 favorites]
True. But, how many Americans really want to vote fascist and just won't say it out loud?
Lots. Lots and lots. They're all showing up in November, and we have to show up and vote to outnumber them.
Anyone who sits out or votes third party is truly voting, despite whatever protestations they may make, an empirically predictable affirmative vote for "whoever wins."
posted by tclark at 2:51 PM on September 6 [15 favorites]
Lots. Lots and lots. They're all showing up in November, and we have to show up and vote to outnumber them.
Anyone who sits out or votes third party is truly voting, despite whatever protestations they may make, an empirically predictable affirmative vote for "whoever wins."
posted by tclark at 2:51 PM on September 6 [15 favorites]
So the only time he was wrong was when the other side cheated their way to victory.
Huh.
posted by mazola at 2:52 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
Huh.
posted by mazola at 2:52 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
Dick Cheney Statement
"In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.
"As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:06 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
"In our nation's 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.
"As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris."
posted by mrjohnmuller at 3:06 PM on September 6 [17 favorites]
Updated assessment of Dick Cheney: a land of exactly one contrast.
posted by away for regrooving at 3:14 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
posted by away for regrooving at 3:14 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day, and how long people are willing to stand in line.
Seriously, was thinking this yesterday, that you take the same electorate and it's either like 270 for Trump or 292 for Harris depending on like, the state of the heat waves or whatever.
posted by kensington314 at 3:22 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Seriously, was thinking this yesterday, that you take the same electorate and it's either like 270 for Trump or 292 for Harris depending on like, the state of the heat waves or whatever.
posted by kensington314 at 3:22 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Dick is a man of principle when no money is at stake, definitely old school.
posted by Brian B. at 3:24 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
posted by Brian B. at 3:24 PM on September 6 [3 favorites]
Living in Interesting times sucks pretty much all of the time, don't it?
posted by y2karl at 3:26 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 3:26 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
In hindsight, W and Cheney turned out to be the little bads of 21st century American politics and Trump is the Big Bad. In Buffy terms, Bush and Dick were the vampires who showed up in town, strutted around, caused all sorts of mayhem and seemed like the worst thing ever... until later in the season when the great eldritch evil crawled out of the hellmouth, the actual apocalypse loomed and the little bads wanted nothing to do with that shit.
(Sigh. Dammit, Joss.)
posted by Ursula Hitler at 3:42 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
(Sigh. Dammit, Joss.)
posted by Ursula Hitler at 3:42 PM on September 6 [27 favorites]
Man, how else could I keep up with postpostcontemporary culture without being a member here?
posted by y2karl at 3:48 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
posted by y2karl at 3:48 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
In hindsight, W and Cheney turned out to be the little bads of 21st century American politics and Trump is the Big Bad.
No. Fucking no.
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War. Trump is the rotten harvest America is reaping from seeds that Bush planted and I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:48 PM on September 6 [78 favorites]
No. Fucking no.
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War. Trump is the rotten harvest America is reaping from seeds that Bush planted and I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
posted by Parasite Unseen at 3:48 PM on September 6 [78 favorites]
As discussed on PSA today, Harris has a tough fight in Pennsylvania, and if she loses it things get complicated. She’d have to win NC or GA plus another state or something. So yes, every single person needs to get out and vote , swing state or no. And someone needs to slap the Internet out of these under 30 men’s’ hands, because what the FUCK are they doing going down the Trump path? Women under 30 are firmly breaking for Harris, but men are like 20-30 points to the right of them. We needs straight women to do a hashtag #Lysistrata2024 or something. Let those guys be all alone in the MAGA zone.
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:53 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
posted by caviar2d2 at 3:53 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
I’m with you 100% that Gen Z incels need the Internet slapped out of their hands. But Lysistrata gambits don’t work against a movement founded on male entitlement and control. If straight women could actually fix misogyny by withholding consent, it’d be long gone.
Put more succinctly, Cheney isn’t the only dick that shows up uninvited.
posted by armeowda at 4:07 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
Put more succinctly, Cheney isn’t the only dick that shows up uninvited.
posted by armeowda at 4:07 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War.
Covid would like a word with you. As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care (and yes I recognize that both of those disasters involved multiple people being awful, but it's not like Bush was the only one involved in invading Iraq).
I mean, I hate seeing Bush minimized as well. The thing is, just like you don't ACTUALLY have to pick a favorite flavor of ice cream, you can think both men were catastrophic in different ways as president.
posted by Gygesringtone at 4:10 PM on September 6 [57 favorites]
Covid would like a word with you. As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care (and yes I recognize that both of those disasters involved multiple people being awful, but it's not like Bush was the only one involved in invading Iraq).
I mean, I hate seeing Bush minimized as well. The thing is, just like you don't ACTUALLY have to pick a favorite flavor of ice cream, you can think both men were catastrophic in different ways as president.
posted by Gygesringtone at 4:10 PM on September 6 [57 favorites]
Honest to goodness it feels more and more like the only thing that matters this time around is the weather in GA and PA on election day
One way to mitigate weather concerns is to help get folks to vote early. Early voting starts on October 15 in Georgia. I've noticed that a number of phone banking and text banking campaigns this year seem to be about getting folks to vote as early as possible - it has so many benefits:
* if there's a problem with your ballot, there may be a better chance to cure it
* once you've voted, the campaigns know (usually) and (a) stop pestering you and (b) can focus on folks who haven't voted yet
* it of course eliminates the possibility of not getting to vote on Election Day due to rain, your car breaking down, getting sick, or whatever
If you have time or money to contribute, most of the organizations working to turn out the vote are probably working on turning out the early vote. Anything you can pitch in can help.
posted by kristi at 4:14 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
One way to mitigate weather concerns is to help get folks to vote early. Early voting starts on October 15 in Georgia. I've noticed that a number of phone banking and text banking campaigns this year seem to be about getting folks to vote as early as possible - it has so many benefits:
* if there's a problem with your ballot, there may be a better chance to cure it
* once you've voted, the campaigns know (usually) and (a) stop pestering you and (b) can focus on folks who haven't voted yet
* it of course eliminates the possibility of not getting to vote on Election Day due to rain, your car breaking down, getting sick, or whatever
If you have time or money to contribute, most of the organizations working to turn out the vote are probably working on turning out the early vote. Anything you can pitch in can help.
posted by kristi at 4:14 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
And with Bush Jr. we got 9/11 and Iraq and Afghanistan and Hurricane Katrina and the decades of problems all downstream of that.
And to think after Katrina I actually owned the URL heckuvajob.com for two years but was grinding 60+ hr weeks and too demoralized to effectively activate it in my "spare time".
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:19 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
And to think after Katrina I actually owned the URL heckuvajob.com for two years but was grinding 60+ hr weeks and too demoralized to effectively activate it in my "spare time".
posted by thecincinnatikid at 4:19 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
I hate Trump but nothing, absolutely nothing that man has done has been a moral or practical disaster on the level of the Iraq War.
W wasn't a full-on fascist. Let me put it this way: near the end of the W administration, some of us on the left worried he might try to install himself as dictator for life. In hindsight, that feels kind of silly. Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible. Trump already sicc'ed his goons on the capital once, and there is legit reason to believe that if he gets in this November, that's it, we'll never vote again.
I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
And I will not countenance the implication that those of us who hate W more than Trump are basing it purely on vibes.
W was a president who committed heinous crimes. Trump was a heinous criminal who became president, a sneering, putty-faced crook who somehow escaped from the Dick Tracy movie. During his administration he committed crimes all day, every day. And you wanna talk morals? Remember the pussy-grabbing, the sexual assault convictions, the 34 felonies, the cozying up to dictators, the "shithole countries," the "good people on both sides," et fucking cetera?
My memory is fine, thanks. I'm old enough that I was in the streets, protesting W. I stood outside his hotel with a great mass of people and we all shouted at him, for all the good it did. And yeah, I'm gonna die on the hill that Trump is worse than George W. Bush ever was. Trump is more sadistic, he's dumber, he's crazier and he is just goddamn worse.
I mean... Covid! Fucking Covid!
posted by Ursula Hitler at 4:32 PM on September 6 [45 favorites]
W wasn't a full-on fascist. Let me put it this way: near the end of the W administration, some of us on the left worried he might try to install himself as dictator for life. In hindsight, that feels kind of silly. Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible. Trump already sicc'ed his goons on the capital once, and there is legit reason to believe that if he gets in this November, that's it, we'll never vote again.
I will not countenance the recent downplaying of exactly how damaging that man was to this country just because we've had someone more loathsome on a "would I have a beer with him" level recently and Americans have short memories.
And I will not countenance the implication that those of us who hate W more than Trump are basing it purely on vibes.
W was a president who committed heinous crimes. Trump was a heinous criminal who became president, a sneering, putty-faced crook who somehow escaped from the Dick Tracy movie. During his administration he committed crimes all day, every day. And you wanna talk morals? Remember the pussy-grabbing, the sexual assault convictions, the 34 felonies, the cozying up to dictators, the "shithole countries," the "good people on both sides," et fucking cetera?
My memory is fine, thanks. I'm old enough that I was in the streets, protesting W. I stood outside his hotel with a great mass of people and we all shouted at him, for all the good it did. And yeah, I'm gonna die on the hill that Trump is worse than George W. Bush ever was. Trump is more sadistic, he's dumber, he's crazier and he is just goddamn worse.
I mean... Covid! Fucking Covid!
posted by Ursula Hitler at 4:32 PM on September 6 [45 favorites]
Okay but GWB is one sick fuck
Not like normal bad or "little bad" but a sick, sadistic fuck. Hope we can all agree about that, without having to have a definitive ranking of our monsters!
posted by kensington314 at 4:47 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
Not like normal bad or "little bad" but a sick, sadistic fuck. Hope we can all agree about that, without having to have a definitive ranking of our monsters!
posted by kensington314 at 4:47 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
Both terrible, Trump is definitely worse. The only reason why he doesn't have his own Iraq-War-level debacle was because of a lack of opportunity. How many millions of people died during Covid because of his ineptitude and selfishness?
posted by ishmael at 4:48 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
posted by ishmael at 4:48 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
Electoral College. The election will be decided by a handful of middle-aged white people in swing states.
Tbh based on the number of times I've been asked how I can walk through Central Park because it's so dangerous with all the immigrants, I don't feel optimistic.
Gotta hand it to the NY Times though for finally clickbaiting me into watching one of their videos!
posted by betweenthebars at 5:24 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Tbh based on the number of times I've been asked how I can walk through Central Park because it's so dangerous with all the immigrants, I don't feel optimistic.
Gotta hand it to the NY Times though for finally clickbaiting me into watching one of their videos!
posted by betweenthebars at 5:24 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
> Bush was a terrible president but he wasn't overthrow the government terrible
*Exchanges wistful looks with Al Gore*
posted by GeckoDundee at 5:33 PM on September 6 [30 favorites]
*Exchanges wistful looks with Al Gore*
posted by GeckoDundee at 5:33 PM on September 6 [30 favorites]
I have only two words about Dick Cheney's endorsement of Harris:
Stopped clock.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:45 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
Stopped clock.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 5:45 PM on September 6 [5 favorites]
i'm old enough to remember W.
i'm old enough to remember H - who was worse than W, because he is actually, terrifyingly intelligent. and Dick Cheney is not our friend, he's just the enemy of our enemy at the moment, for a moment. he's simply come to the realization that he might have to reap what he and his cronies have sown.
i'm even old enough to remember Reagan.
heck - i remember NIXON.
and you know what? it's not like picking a favorite ice cream flavor of evil.
it's shit, all the way down.
posted by lapolla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [32 favorites]
i'm old enough to remember H - who was worse than W, because he is actually, terrifyingly intelligent. and Dick Cheney is not our friend, he's just the enemy of our enemy at the moment, for a moment. he's simply come to the realization that he might have to reap what he and his cronies have sown.
i'm even old enough to remember Reagan.
heck - i remember NIXON.
and you know what? it's not like picking a favorite ice cream flavor of evil.
it's shit, all the way down.
posted by lapolla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [32 favorites]
A lot of people are point to COVID as the prime example of why Trump is reputedly worse than CheneyCo, conveniently ignoring that:
1. COVID only seems worse because Trump's criminal incompetence affected American citizens and not innocent brown people in the Middle East (and ignores Katrina, the Dept of "Homeland Security," the 2008 financial crisis, etc, etc, etc...);
2. A large part of the COVID deaths in the US are the direct result of the right-wing hate machine convincing people it was all a hoax;
3. The pandemic IS STILL GOING ON, and still killing thousands of Americans a week! And the Biden administration is doing... fuck all? No, I take that back -- they actively encouraged Americans to pretend it doesn't exist anymore, and cancelled any and all federal support to the victims of it. So, actually as bad if not worse than anything Trump did. And has Harris even mentioned it in her campaign?
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
posted by Pedantzilla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
1. COVID only seems worse because Trump's criminal incompetence affected American citizens and not innocent brown people in the Middle East (and ignores Katrina, the Dept of "Homeland Security," the 2008 financial crisis, etc, etc, etc...);
2. A large part of the COVID deaths in the US are the direct result of the right-wing hate machine convincing people it was all a hoax;
3. The pandemic IS STILL GOING ON, and still killing thousands of Americans a week! And the Biden administration is doing... fuck all? No, I take that back -- they actively encouraged Americans to pretend it doesn't exist anymore, and cancelled any and all federal support to the victims of it. So, actually as bad if not worse than anything Trump did. And has Harris even mentioned it in her campaign?
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
posted by Pedantzilla at 5:49 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
Accepting?
posted by box at 5:53 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
posted by box at 5:53 PM on September 6 [23 favorites]
And Covid arguably happened because of Trump. A lot of people missed this, because the media is incompetent and has the attention span of a kitten. In 2017, the GOP cut the Centers of Disease Control fund that Prevention and Public Health Fund, which fights diseases before they turn into epidemics.
posted by joannemerriam at 5:56 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
posted by joannemerriam at 5:56 PM on September 6 [14 favorites]
oh and yeah - i know, the Democrats have their own petty tyrants, corruption, misogyny, and failures -from Covid to the supreme court to foreign policy. but they look less shitty, in comparison.
posted by lapolla at 5:58 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
posted by lapolla at 5:58 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
Reaganism + Rupert Murdoch = Bush and Trump
posted by brachiopod at 6:13 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
posted by brachiopod at 6:13 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
I'll add that Cheney is a legit OG monster, in the Henry Kissinger mold, and Harris gaining and accepting the support of such a monster says more about her than about him.
Does it? I've seen no indication that Harris went and kissed the ring. Liz Cheney is also personally in Trump's crosshairs, as Dick probably is, and the basic self-preservation instinct to avoid getting gulag'd or killed after a show trial may simply be kicking in.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:14 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Does it? I've seen no indication that Harris went and kissed the ring. Liz Cheney is also personally in Trump's crosshairs, as Dick probably is, and the basic self-preservation instinct to avoid getting gulag'd or killed after a show trial may simply be kicking in.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:14 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
>which fights diseases before they turn into epidemics
https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/15/virus-screenings-jam-us-airports-atrocious-flyer-says
posted by torokunai at 6:15 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
https://news.wttw.com/2020/03/15/virus-screenings-jam-us-airports-atrocious-flyer-says
posted by torokunai at 6:15 PM on September 6 [1 favorite]
There was a fifty two card playing deck of the little tyrants Bush implanted into the government and the shit they were doing from the department of the interior to ambassadors. I think it was 11 trillion dollars when he left office that we were in the hole for? We then jumped up to about 20 trillion and again, root cause would be Bush. His shit led to 20 goddamn years of spinning our wheels. Thousands of people who worked in the services fucked over, a massive expansion of defense spending via contractors, the Department of Homeland Security, military surplus being slurped down by local police, putting idiot fear on a pedestal after the shoe bomber and the shrieking about anthrax.
And the absolute best part? This started with a fucking putsch of suits. Jan 6th was coup two. Gore would have won, so republicans staged the Brooks Brothers riot and got SCOTUS to turf the election to them as a result.
So many little things have been lost to time but the Bush crew were (in contrast to Trump) competent at stripping the wiring and stuffing their pockets and they did it for EIGHT YEARS.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 PM on September 6 [20 favorites]
And the absolute best part? This started with a fucking putsch of suits. Jan 6th was coup two. Gore would have won, so republicans staged the Brooks Brothers riot and got SCOTUS to turf the election to them as a result.
So many little things have been lost to time but the Bush crew were (in contrast to Trump) competent at stripping the wiring and stuffing their pockets and they did it for EIGHT YEARS.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:18 PM on September 6 [20 favorites]
This started with a fucking putsch of suits. Jan 6th was coup two.
Both with Roger Stone's slug-slime fingerprints all over them - like so many of the illegal and slimy things Trump has done, including soliciting Russian aid via Manafort/Kilimnik - so the puppeteer hasn't changed.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:24 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Both with Roger Stone's slug-slime fingerprints all over them - like so many of the illegal and slimy things Trump has done, including soliciting Russian aid via Manafort/Kilimnik - so the puppeteer hasn't changed.
posted by Inspector.Gadget at 6:24 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
W was 10X worse than Trump.
3 million people losing employement 2008-2011? On him 100%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tuCl shows total systemic US debt (Household, Corporate, Government) / GDP.
We had one Great Leveraging in the 1980s after they got rid of Volcker and let the boomers borrow like they wanted and needed.
Then we had a Second Great Leveraging the minute the Bush admin took over in 2001.
Abu Ghraib, "Fuck Saddam, we're taking him out!" (without understanding the Sunni/Shia/Christian/Kurd divides in Iraq), our merry nation-building effort in Afghanistan.
The opportunity cost on all that is simply soul-incinerating. I strongly suspect PNAC has actually killed the US as a going concern this century, we still don't know it yet.
posted by torokunai at 6:25 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
3 million people losing employement 2008-2011? On him 100%.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1tuCl shows total systemic US debt (Household, Corporate, Government) / GDP.
We had one Great Leveraging in the 1980s after they got rid of Volcker and let the boomers borrow like they wanted and needed.
Then we had a Second Great Leveraging the minute the Bush admin took over in 2001.
Abu Ghraib, "Fuck Saddam, we're taking him out!" (without understanding the Sunni/Shia/Christian/Kurd divides in Iraq), our merry nation-building effort in Afghanistan.
The opportunity cost on all that is simply soul-incinerating. I strongly suspect PNAC has actually killed the US as a going concern this century, we still don't know it yet.
posted by torokunai at 6:25 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
>As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care
Bush's appointment to replace O'Connor wrote that decision, and the Chief Justice he appointed to replace Rehnquist joined it.
posted by torokunai at 6:32 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
Bush's appointment to replace O'Connor wrote that decision, and the Chief Justice he appointed to replace Rehnquist joined it.
posted by torokunai at 6:32 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
EmpressCallipygos: I have only two words about Dick Cheney's endorsement of Harris:
Stopped clock.
Yes, from the old saying "A stopped clock shoots someone in the face twice a day" or something like that
posted by tzikeh at 6:39 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
Stopped clock.
Yes, from the old saying "A stopped clock shoots someone in the face twice a day" or something like that
posted by tzikeh at 6:39 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
I wouldn't read too much into [Trump admitting that he lost]. He also said that there were fraudulent votes, I expect meaning more than a whisker's width.
It did lead to a very fun moment where it got back to his Nazi supporters, who weren't pleased to find out that they were suckers all along
I do not know if it's profitable to prosecute whether Dubya's administration or Trump's was worse; the way I reacted to Dick Cheney saying that Trump was the greatest threat to the republic in its history was "well, he would know". At this point, I will take any Republicans, no matter how evil, saying not to vote for Trump despite the R next to his name
posted by Merus at 6:44 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
It did lead to a very fun moment where it got back to his Nazi supporters, who weren't pleased to find out that they were suckers all along
I do not know if it's profitable to prosecute whether Dubya's administration or Trump's was worse; the way I reacted to Dick Cheney saying that Trump was the greatest threat to the republic in its history was "well, he would know". At this point, I will take any Republicans, no matter how evil, saying not to vote for Trump despite the R next to his name
posted by Merus at 6:44 PM on September 6 [12 favorites]
So, actually as bad if not worse than anything Trump did.
Bullshit. On January 28, 2020, Trump's national security adviser told him, “this will be the biggest national security threat you face in your presidency.” On February 7, Trump told Bob Woodward:
In February 2021, the Lancet concluded "that 40 percent of the nearly 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the past year were avoidable." That's about 200,000 people that died because of his incompetence and malfeasance.
So no, Biden is not "as bad if not worse."
posted by kirkaracha at 7:13 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
Bullshit. On January 28, 2020, Trump's national security adviser told him, “this will be the biggest national security threat you face in your presidency.” On February 7, Trump told Bob Woodward:
“You just breathe the air and that’s how it’s passed,” Trump said in a Feb. 7 call. “And so that’s a very tricky one. That’s a very delicate one. It’s also more deadly than even your strenuous flus.”Despite being aware of coronavirus' severity, Trump downplayed it 31 times in the first three months of 2020. Trump told people Covid could be treated with ultraviolet light or injecting disinfectant. He continually disparaged wearing masks.
“This is deadly stuff,” the president repeated for emphasis.
In February 2021, the Lancet concluded "that 40 percent of the nearly 500,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. over the past year were avoidable." That's about 200,000 people that died because of his incompetence and malfeasance.
So no, Biden is not "as bad if not worse."
posted by kirkaracha at 7:13 PM on September 6 [19 favorites]
It's a both/and world, y'all
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:16 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 7:16 PM on September 6 [13 favorites]
Not sure a "which was the worst monster" competition matters at the moment -- W is now history that we can't fix without a time machine. Trump is an active threat, and if he gets 4 more years in office we have literally no idea how much more damage he could do... but he can be stopped before that happens.
posted by Foosnark at 7:25 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
posted by Foosnark at 7:25 PM on September 6 [26 favorites]
Trumpworld correctly calls Bushworld a bunch of corrupt, murderous warmongers (and many Republicans apparently agree with him!). Bushworld correctly calls Trumpworld a bunch of autocratic dangers-to-the-republic (and while many establishment Republicans agree with that, many don't say it out loud). If the Democrats can hold together through this election, it might lead to a true fracturing of the GOP between these two wings, stuck between an establishment loathed by its base, and extremists with no credible electability. I hate feeling the intense stakes of this election, but it seems like yet another potential positive outcome if Harris wins.
posted by nightcoast at 7:30 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
posted by nightcoast at 7:30 PM on September 6 [9 favorites]
Ok, even Cheney stepped up. Dubya, we're waiting.
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:44 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 7:44 PM on September 6 [6 favorites]
So, massive derail over now?
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:57 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:57 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
Not sure a "which was the worst monster" competition matters at the moment
Yeah, it occurs to me that we should probably take care of getting rid of the current fascist threat first, otherwise we may not be able to then go on to prosecute the previous fascists ever.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:59 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
Yeah, it occurs to me that we should probably take care of getting rid of the current fascist threat first, otherwise we may not be able to then go on to prosecute the previous fascists ever.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 7:59 PM on September 6 [10 favorites]
W is now history that we can't fix without a time machine.
The Hague is right there. Which, of course, would require the US to abide by international law so...
posted by stet at 9:07 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
The Hague is right there. Which, of course, would require the US to abide by international law so...
posted by stet at 9:07 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
So, massive derail over now?
Hey, when I made a goofy post comparing Republicans to Buffy monsters I had no idea it'd turn out like this.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 9:10 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
Hey, when I made a goofy post comparing Republicans to Buffy monsters I had no idea it'd turn out like this.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 9:10 PM on September 6 [8 favorites]
I flagged several comments at the beginning of the derailment. Help could be good.
posted by NotLost at 10:03 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
posted by NotLost at 10:03 PM on September 6 [4 favorites]
Things got a little heated for a minute, but I don't think anybody's comments deserve to get deleted. Jeez. I suspect the whole thing has blown over now, anyway. I certainly don't expect to say any more about it.
posted by Ursula Hitler at 10:31 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
posted by Ursula Hitler at 10:31 PM on September 6 [2 favorites]
I'm glad I watched the livestream where Allan Lichtman and his son went into depth about how all the keys applied to the 2024 election, along with viewer Q&A. He answered some of the questions I had about how the economic keys applied this year, and just seemed like an all-around fair and reasonable man. Here's hoping the keys continue to hold.
posted by lock robster at 12:57 AM on September 7 [3 favorites]
posted by lock robster at 12:57 AM on September 7 [3 favorites]
>As would all the women who have lost the right to basic health care
Bush's Global Gag rule would like a word.
posted by rosiroo at 3:18 AM on September 7 [5 favorites]
Bush's Global Gag rule would like a word.
posted by rosiroo at 3:18 AM on September 7 [5 favorites]
So anyway, back to this current election....
The Harris/Trump debate is in just a couple days, and they have been preparing for it in very different ways - Harris has been practicing keeping her responses to questions clear, succinct, and brief, to comply with the two-minute limit she'll be constrained by. And Trump seems to just be....going to rallies, and trusting that on debate night he'll just roll with the vibes, I guess.
Oh, and have fourteen political cartoons from the Columbus Dispatch, a newspaper in swing state Ohio.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:54 AM on September 7 [8 favorites]
The Harris/Trump debate is in just a couple days, and they have been preparing for it in very different ways - Harris has been practicing keeping her responses to questions clear, succinct, and brief, to comply with the two-minute limit she'll be constrained by. And Trump seems to just be....going to rallies, and trusting that on debate night he'll just roll with the vibes, I guess.
Oh, and have fourteen political cartoons from the Columbus Dispatch, a newspaper in swing state Ohio.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 3:54 AM on September 7 [8 favorites]
I can't wait for the normal debate double standard!
TRUMP: If he doesn't strip naked, scream, or say the "N" word out loud he is "becoming presidential"
HARRIS: If she accidentally says "Medicare" when she means "Medicaid" she's an under-qualified national embarrassment who can never be allowed to lead the country
posted by mmoncur at 6:31 AM on September 7 [19 favorites]
TRUMP: If he doesn't strip naked, scream, or say the "N" word out loud he is "becoming presidential"
HARRIS: If she accidentally says "Medicare" when she means "Medicaid" she's an under-qualified national embarrassment who can never be allowed to lead the country
posted by mmoncur at 6:31 AM on September 7 [19 favorites]
if you'd like to try to stay positive about the election, please share in this thread!
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:42 AM on September 7 [4 favorites]
posted by tiny frying pan at 6:42 AM on September 7 [4 favorites]
>Harris has been practicing keeping her responses to questions clear, succinct, and brief
National media: "Harris was over-prepared".
posted by torokunai at 6:51 AM on September 7 [12 favorites]
National media: "Harris was over-prepared".
posted by torokunai at 6:51 AM on September 7 [12 favorites]
So, this is related, I promise.
A ways back, I had this party trick where I could tell within a year when someone graduated high school based on three questions: their favorite food, their favorite color, and their favorite Metallica album. It was amazing, tipsy people at parties couldn't figure it out. The only question that really mattered was their favorite Metallica album. Because people would always pick the one that came out around when they graduated. The reason I came up with this trick was because in college I was a music major, so we talked about music A LOT, and also mixed a lot with the grad students and seemed to have more non-traditional students than most majors. The thing is there was a type of dude, who could be counted on to high jack any conversation about newer albums with talk about how much better this one band that was popular when they were in high school was.
Don't be that dude.
Just like we all knew that Guns and Roses Appetite for Destruction was a great album but just wanted to talk about how how cool it is with so much Jazz in their music is getting popular and did you know that Norah Jones is Ravi Shankar's kid (that is a literal example btw)? We all acknowledge that important things happened in your (mine too) glory days, but hey lets talk about the multi-racial woman who's running for president rather than hijacking the conversation to talk about some white guy that isn't running for office, but was really important when we were young.
posted by Gygesringtone at 6:52 AM on September 7 [7 favorites]
A ways back, I had this party trick where I could tell within a year when someone graduated high school based on three questions: their favorite food, their favorite color, and their favorite Metallica album. It was amazing, tipsy people at parties couldn't figure it out. The only question that really mattered was their favorite Metallica album. Because people would always pick the one that came out around when they graduated. The reason I came up with this trick was because in college I was a music major, so we talked about music A LOT, and also mixed a lot with the grad students and seemed to have more non-traditional students than most majors. The thing is there was a type of dude, who could be counted on to high jack any conversation about newer albums with talk about how much better this one band that was popular when they were in high school was.
Don't be that dude.
Just like we all knew that Guns and Roses Appetite for Destruction was a great album but just wanted to talk about how how cool it is with so much Jazz in their music is getting popular and did you know that Norah Jones is Ravi Shankar's kid (that is a literal example btw)? We all acknowledge that important things happened in your (mine too) glory days, but hey lets talk about the multi-racial woman who's running for president rather than hijacking the conversation to talk about some white guy that isn't running for office, but was really important when we were young.
posted by Gygesringtone at 6:52 AM on September 7 [7 favorites]
I can't wait for the normal debate double standard!
Personally, the thing I can't wait for with the debates is the inevitable "we had undecided voters watch the debate here's what they thought" articles where it turns out that one of them was heavily invested in whatever that weird NFT thing Trump's selling is and another was Civil War re-enactor who regularly complains that they can't "use historically accurate language", and a third was literally just a cardboard cutout of Trump with a pair of glasses and a fake mustache drawn on its face.
posted by Gygesringtone at 6:53 AM on September 7 [14 favorites]
Personally, the thing I can't wait for with the debates is the inevitable "we had undecided voters watch the debate here's what they thought" articles where it turns out that one of them was heavily invested in whatever that weird NFT thing Trump's selling is and another was Civil War re-enactor who regularly complains that they can't "use historically accurate language", and a third was literally just a cardboard cutout of Trump with a pair of glasses and a fake mustache drawn on its face.
posted by Gygesringtone at 6:53 AM on September 7 [14 favorites]
>The pandemic IS STILL GOING ON, and still killing thousands of Americans a week! And the Biden administration is doing... fuck all? No, I take that back -- they actively encouraged Americans to pretend it doesn't exist anymore,
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
says hundreds, not "thousands" of COVID deaths/week.
posted by torokunai at 7:01 AM on September 7 [5 favorites]
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
says hundreds, not "thousands" of COVID deaths/week.
posted by torokunai at 7:01 AM on September 7 [5 favorites]
>Don't be that dude.
My take is both W and Trump are different faces on the same monster.
posted by torokunai at 7:02 AM on September 7
My take is both W and Trump are different faces on the same monster.
posted by torokunai at 7:02 AM on September 7
It did lead to a very fun moment where it got back to his Nazi supporters, who weren't pleased to find out that they were suckers all along
Thanks Merus. This is an interesting development that should be amplified. Some are feeling betrayed for being so easily misled. The time to evaluate the herd's culpability in promoting a liar is long overdue, and may need to come before the election to give blind followers a chance to reflect before they enter a new reactionary cycle.
“So, why did we do Stop the Steal? … Why did anyone go to Jan. 6? Why is anyone sitting in jail? Why did anything bad happen to anybody? Why did everyone get censored? Why is everything bad that has happened to the people that were involved, why did that need to happen if you’re just going to walk it all back and say, ‘Oh, I lost’?”
“Well, it would have been good to know that before 1,600 people got charged. It would have been good to know that before I had all my money frozen, [was] put on the No Fly List, [got] banned from everything, lost all banking and payment processing. It would have been good to know that before I, in 2017, dedicated my life to this as an 18 year-old in college. It just feels like a big ripoff.”
posted by Brian B. at 7:56 AM on September 7 [6 favorites]
Thanks Merus. This is an interesting development that should be amplified. Some are feeling betrayed for being so easily misled. The time to evaluate the herd's culpability in promoting a liar is long overdue, and may need to come before the election to give blind followers a chance to reflect before they enter a new reactionary cycle.
“So, why did we do Stop the Steal? … Why did anyone go to Jan. 6? Why is anyone sitting in jail? Why did anything bad happen to anybody? Why did everyone get censored? Why is everything bad that has happened to the people that were involved, why did that need to happen if you’re just going to walk it all back and say, ‘Oh, I lost’?”
“Well, it would have been good to know that before 1,600 people got charged. It would have been good to know that before I had all my money frozen, [was] put on the No Fly List, [got] banned from everything, lost all banking and payment processing. It would have been good to know that before I, in 2017, dedicated my life to this as an 18 year-old in college. It just feels like a big ripoff.”
posted by Brian B. at 7:56 AM on September 7 [6 favorites]
Curious about the debate prep. It sounds like the original game plan was to throw Trump off with adverserial/prosecutorial energy, but without the hot mics, people won't hear Harris' part of those exchanges. She could do it anyway to rattle him - in fact, could get away with saying things that maybe she couldn't otherwise that would knock him off course? Or would Trump try to pull his own "I'm speaking" moment?
Also, there was a Washington Post article about Harris' management style - I don't have access to it, but saw a screenshot with this line:
posted by nightcoast at 8:11 AM on September 7 [4 favorites]
Also, there was a Washington Post article about Harris' management style - I don't have access to it, but saw a screenshot with this line:
That behavior manifests in other encounters, the staffer continued, such as when someone pays her compliments. "She'll turn to them and say 'why?,' and that throws them off," the staffer said.For some reason this struck me personally and positively, because I sometimes find compliments on a gut level uncomfortable/suspicious (but am not direct enough to put those feelings into words; although maybe this is not exactly what's happening with Harris, but it still resonated), and because it just seems like the opposite of Trump, who expects compliments as a matter of course, and would never question them.
posted by nightcoast at 8:11 AM on September 7 [4 favorites]
Oops, I had missed some comments from folks above about the debates. Keeping things very clear, succinct, and brief also seems good - and served her well in the past, e.g. during the California DA race, where it led to her opponent shooting himself in the foot without much need for assistance from Harris.
posted by nightcoast at 8:14 AM on September 7 [2 favorites]
posted by nightcoast at 8:14 AM on September 7 [2 favorites]
I'm ignoring the polls because I don't want my heart broken (again) on Nov. 5th. and in the words of Michelle Obama DO SOMETHING! and above all vote!
posted by bluesky43 at 1:36 PM on September 7 [3 favorites]
posted by bluesky43 at 1:36 PM on September 7 [3 favorites]
Kamala Harris charming people at a spice store. She's very warm and genuine.
posted by kirkaracha at 2:36 PM on September 7 [14 favorites]
posted by kirkaracha at 2:36 PM on September 7 [14 favorites]
Both Lichtman and his wife Karyn Strickler seem to be aggressively self-promoting and unusually quick to describe what seems like normal academic debate as "defamatory" claims. I hate to stoop to making fun of her first name, but it seems incredibly petty to get into the comments of an article in Newsweek (which no one has held in high regard for at least a decade) that merely points out that not everyone (who cares if they have a media presence) agrees with your husband's model.
I once held Newsweek in high regard, but the publication's defamatory and disrespectful treatment of my husband, Allan Lichtman, and his distinguished career, has resulted in a loss of respect. Newsweek's article featured unsubstantiated claims, which Allan thoroughly refuted in his written response. Additionally, the sources cited, Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito, lack any shred of credibility, with a minimal social media presence and zero engagement in the 6-year history of their obscure publication. Their desperation to make a name for themselves on the back of a hard-working, eminent scholar is evident. Newsweek's decision to provide a platform for their cyber-stalking and harassment is deplorable.posted by RandlePatrickMcMurphy at 2:47 PM on September 7 [2 favorites]
Some are feeling betrayed for being so easily misled.
I'd be wary of sob stories of this sort. Usually when you see strife like this aired publicly, it is because the parties involved are not getting payola from campaigns and PACs as they once were. There is a whole ecosystem of grifters who run right-wing extremist networks, who are using Trump voters and sentiment as a way to get paid.
Not to say anyone who would vote for Trump should be dissuaded from that, generally, but Nick Fuentes — the one being quoted — is no blind follower or victim, but an open neo-Nazi who is peddling white nationalist views to generate income.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:46 PM on September 7 [5 favorites]
I'd be wary of sob stories of this sort. Usually when you see strife like this aired publicly, it is because the parties involved are not getting payola from campaigns and PACs as they once were. There is a whole ecosystem of grifters who run right-wing extremist networks, who are using Trump voters and sentiment as a way to get paid.
Not to say anyone who would vote for Trump should be dissuaded from that, generally, but Nick Fuentes — the one being quoted — is no blind follower or victim, but an open neo-Nazi who is peddling white nationalist views to generate income.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 5:46 PM on September 7 [5 favorites]
CNN interviewed two voters in Pennsylvania:
REPORTER: Who will you vote for?posted by kirkaracha at 6:10 PM on September 7 [35 favorites]
VOTER: Kamala Harris.
REPORTER: Were you Democrats before?
VOTER: I’m a Republican.
REPORTER: Why are you voting the other way?
VOTER: Because she behaves more like a human.
>I'd be wary of sob stories of this sort
yeah when Elog's new Xitter Platform Unsafety Team somehow let him back on I cancelled my account forthwith (and started posting here a lot more . . .)
posted by torokunai at 8:02 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
yeah when Elog's new Xitter Platform Unsafety Team somehow let him back on I cancelled my account forthwith (and started posting here a lot more . . .)
posted by torokunai at 8:02 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
It just feels like a big ripoff.
That is because it is, and you are the mark.
posted by Pouteria at 10:36 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
That is because it is, and you are the mark.
posted by Pouteria at 10:36 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
VOTER: Because she behaves more like a human.
Watching the interview (however brief) reminds me how people often communicate much more with their facial expressions than with words.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:38 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
Watching the interview (however brief) reminds me how people often communicate much more with their facial expressions than with words.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 11:38 PM on September 7 [1 favorite]
Kamala Harris charming people at a spice store. She's very warm and genuine.
That's no mere spice store, that's Penzeys! Not only do they have great spice blends, they've also been openly political and very anti-Trump for a long time and were very enthusiastic about Harris from day 1.
Nice to see Kamala making an appearance there!
(And the first thing she does after walking in is help a woman who was overcome with emotion calm down. So good to see such humanity in a candidate!)
posted by mmoncur at 4:22 AM on September 8 [15 favorites]
That's no mere spice store, that's Penzeys! Not only do they have great spice blends, they've also been openly political and very anti-Trump for a long time and were very enthusiastic about Harris from day 1.
Nice to see Kamala making an appearance there!
(And the first thing she does after walking in is help a woman who was overcome with emotion calm down. So good to see such humanity in a candidate!)
posted by mmoncur at 4:22 AM on September 8 [15 favorites]
Not to say anyone who would vote for Trump should be dissuaded from that, generally, but Nick Fuentes — the one being quoted — is no blind follower or victim, but an open neo-Nazi who is peddling white nationalist views to generate income.
Yes, but being the worst example of humanity sputtering a true statement of self-awareness against their former cult adds value to their public de-conversion. This is because recovery is all about reversing an influence made by originally appealing to hate, anger and fear, which fueled their passions and sincerity, suppressing their objectivity. Putting the average citizen up as a switch case in hopes of an identify-with-them strategy is probably least ineffective because it is also signaling they were never all in and never got burned. Imagine an anti-drug spot featuring someone who tried it once and didn't like it, versus a case who hit bottom.
posted by Brian B. at 10:26 AM on September 8 [1 favorite]
Yes, but being the worst example of humanity sputtering a true statement of self-awareness against their former cult adds value to their public de-conversion. This is because recovery is all about reversing an influence made by originally appealing to hate, anger and fear, which fueled their passions and sincerity, suppressing their objectivity. Putting the average citizen up as a switch case in hopes of an identify-with-them strategy is probably least ineffective because it is also signaling they were never all in and never got burned. Imagine an anti-drug spot featuring someone who tried it once and didn't like it, versus a case who hit bottom.
posted by Brian B. at 10:26 AM on September 8 [1 favorite]
That behavior manifests in other encounters, the staffer continued, such as when someone pays her compliments. "She'll turn to them and say 'why?,' and that throws them off," the staffer said.
For some reason this struck me personally and positively, because I sometimes find compliments on a gut level uncomfortable/suspicious
That's why I think it's usually better to thank someone than compliment them. Instead of telling a performer they were great (which might trigger thoughts of why they disagree), say "Thank you for performing; I really enjoyed it, especially when you did this."
("You're so smart" vs. "Thanks for getting that figured out"; "You look great" vs. "I like your hat"; "You're a great Vice President" vs. "Thank you for helping get the price of insulin capped.")
I think it's great that Harris is on to that difference and encourages people to be specific to make their comments better.
posted by straight at 3:18 PM on September 8 [8 favorites]
For some reason this struck me personally and positively, because I sometimes find compliments on a gut level uncomfortable/suspicious
That's why I think it's usually better to thank someone than compliment them. Instead of telling a performer they were great (which might trigger thoughts of why they disagree), say "Thank you for performing; I really enjoyed it, especially when you did this."
("You're so smart" vs. "Thanks for getting that figured out"; "You look great" vs. "I like your hat"; "You're a great Vice President" vs. "Thank you for helping get the price of insulin capped.")
I think it's great that Harris is on to that difference and encourages people to be specific to make their comments better.
posted by straight at 3:18 PM on September 8 [8 favorites]
That reminds me, I need to place a Penzey's order.
posted by mollweide at 6:48 PM on September 8 [7 favorites]
posted by mollweide at 6:48 PM on September 8 [7 favorites]
the spices must flow
(FYI Penzey's will send you "remember to vote" stickers if those help any of your letter-writing)
posted by away for regrooving at 12:19 AM on September 9 [2 favorites]
(FYI Penzey's will send you "remember to vote" stickers if those help any of your letter-writing)
posted by away for regrooving at 12:19 AM on September 9 [2 favorites]
New Harris ad: The Best People
Airing nationally on Fox News and locally in Philadelphia and West Palm Beach, FL.
posted by box at 7:12 AM on September 9 [13 favorites]
Airing nationally on Fox News and locally in Philadelphia and West Palm Beach, FL.
posted by box at 7:12 AM on September 9 [13 favorites]
Vance is defending his awkward donut shop mishap by blaming his inability to relate to others on the employee:
In the clip shared on social media last week, Vance, members of his team and Secret Service agents visited a bakery in Valdosta, Georgia. One employee asked not to be on camera while the Ohio senator tried to make small talk and buy donuts.posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:39 AM on September 9
“I just felt terrible for that woman,” Vance told NBC in a story published Wednesday, referring to the bakery employee. “We walked in, and there’s 20 Secret Service agents and there’s 15 cameras, and she clearly had not been properly warned, and she was terrified, right? I just felt awful for her.”
New Harris ad: The Best People
I suppose it's effective enough, but I hate that style of ad, with the dark visuals and the spooky man talking.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:06 AM on September 9
I suppose it's effective enough, but I hate that style of ad, with the dark visuals and the spooky man talking.
posted by kirkaracha at 8:06 AM on September 9
Hi,
I had not posted for quite some time before today, when I find myself drawn inevitably to the milk-and-cookie megathreads on the blue.
The stakes could not have been higher.
It's easy, or tempting, for an "outsider" like me to adopt a binary, good-vs-evil mindset while observing and reflecting on the implications of the poll. Democracy and the rule of law are at a make-or-break junction. Autocracy and freedom are engaged in a fateful struggle that will affect what it means to live in a human civilization.
But this time, for me, it's a lot more personal. In the past few years, life changes have been drastic. I've come out to people (selectively, but still). I am now of such age that many people here, around me, would simply write me off. I changed many jobs and learned many things. If things turn out right, I am going to go to the US for the first time this winter, to take up new work there.
So I do have a personal stake in wanting to feel safe and welcome there. And I hope that the small business I want to help grow will operate in a favorable condition where the rule of law can be taken to be a baseline.
But more importantly is that I, too, want to be proud of America, despite all its flaws and wrongs. Because otherwise, I know that there will be no way for me to really be there, and give what I can for people and things I believe in, and earn my fair share. It will be extremely difficult for me to thrive if I can't, on some level, identify with the ethos of the ethne that I live among.
And the most significant change of my life is having become a parent. Whereas I used to understand that every generation wants the next one to be better and happier than one's own, I now know it in a visceral way. I want my kid to live in a world in which they can dream of good things that I cannot even imagine. That world, already slipping away from us, must not be shaped by those powerful rich men who want to enact Project 2025 in America, and those other powerful men elsewhere who will be emboldened by that.
It's terrifying to think that the choice will be determined ultimately by a relatively small number of people in a few counties.
posted by runcifex at 10:26 AM on September 9 [16 favorites]
I had not posted for quite some time before today, when I find myself drawn inevitably to the milk-and-cookie megathreads on the blue.
The stakes could not have been higher.
It's easy, or tempting, for an "outsider" like me to adopt a binary, good-vs-evil mindset while observing and reflecting on the implications of the poll. Democracy and the rule of law are at a make-or-break junction. Autocracy and freedom are engaged in a fateful struggle that will affect what it means to live in a human civilization.
But this time, for me, it's a lot more personal. In the past few years, life changes have been drastic. I've come out to people (selectively, but still). I am now of such age that many people here, around me, would simply write me off. I changed many jobs and learned many things. If things turn out right, I am going to go to the US for the first time this winter, to take up new work there.
So I do have a personal stake in wanting to feel safe and welcome there. And I hope that the small business I want to help grow will operate in a favorable condition where the rule of law can be taken to be a baseline.
But more importantly is that I, too, want to be proud of America, despite all its flaws and wrongs. Because otherwise, I know that there will be no way for me to really be there, and give what I can for people and things I believe in, and earn my fair share. It will be extremely difficult for me to thrive if I can't, on some level, identify with the ethos of the ethne that I live among.
And the most significant change of my life is having become a parent. Whereas I used to understand that every generation wants the next one to be better and happier than one's own, I now know it in a visceral way. I want my kid to live in a world in which they can dream of good things that I cannot even imagine. That world, already slipping away from us, must not be shaped by those powerful rich men who want to enact Project 2025 in America, and those other powerful men elsewhere who will be emboldened by that.
It's terrifying to think that the choice will be determined ultimately by a relatively small number of people in a few counties.
posted by runcifex at 10:26 AM on September 9 [16 favorites]
“… she clearly had not been properly warned, and she was terrified, right? I just felt awful for her.”
No, asshole, she wasn’t “terrified” — she was protecting her personal privacy!
posted by jgirl at 6:06 PM on September 9 [5 favorites]
No, asshole, she wasn’t “terrified” — she was protecting her personal privacy!
posted by jgirl at 6:06 PM on September 9 [5 favorites]
“I just felt terrible for that woman,” Vance told NBC in a story published Wednesday, referring to the bakery employee. “We walked in, and there’s 20 Secret Service agents and there’s 15 cameras, and she clearly had not been properly warned, and she was terrified, right? I just felt awful for her.”
Bullshit. A normal person would not engage ON CAMERA with someone who they thought was terrified. If he'd had any feelings about the matter other than "Teehee, I love attention and there are cameras" the footage would have been buried.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 12:16 AM on September 10 [3 favorites]
Bullshit. A normal person would not engage ON CAMERA with someone who they thought was terrified. If he'd had any feelings about the matter other than "Teehee, I love attention and there are cameras" the footage would have been buried.
posted by fluffy battle kitten at 12:16 AM on September 10 [3 favorites]
Thread about tonight's presidential debate is over in FanFare.
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:11 PM on September 10 [1 favorite]
posted by Brandon Blatcher at 4:11 PM on September 10 [1 favorite]
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