The data on extreme human ageing is rotten from the inside out
September 15, 2024 5:26 AM   Subscribe

The data on extreme human ageing is rotten from the inside out. Ig Nobel prize winner Saul Justin Newman on his paper Supercentenarians and the oldest-old are concentrated into regions with no birth certificates and short lifespans.
In general, the claims about how long people are living mostly don’t stack up. I’ve tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can’t meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the US there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.

The epitome of this is blue zones, which are regions where people supposedly reach age 100 at a remarkable rate. For almost 20 years, they have been marketed to the public...Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don’t register your death...

Longevity data are used for projections of future lifespans, and those are used to set everyone’s pension rate. You’re talking about trillions of dollars of pension money. If the data is junk then so are those projections. It also means we’re allocating the wrong amounts of money to plan hospitals to take care of old people in the future. Your insurance premiums are based on this stuff.
posted by TheophileEscargot (53 comments total) 50 users marked this as a favorite
 
Great finish to the interview (first link)! Definitely read to the end.
posted by TreeRooster at 5:38 AM on September 15 [3 favorites]


Sharing with all my blue-zone-loving family members. Wish me luck!
posted by heyitsgogi at 5:40 AM on September 15 [4 favorites]


The state-specific introduction of birth certificates is associated with a 69-82% fall in the number of supercentenarian records.

So we know that birth certificates are killing old people. We just don’t know how.
posted by gauche at 5:46 AM on September 15 [142 favorites]


I’ve tracked down 80% of the people aged over 110 in the world (the other 20% are from countries you can’t meaningfully analyse). Of those, almost none have a birth certificate. In the US there are over 500 of these people; seven have a birth certificate. Even worse, only about 10% have a death certificate.

That's because they aren't dead!
posted by chavenet at 5:53 AM on September 15 [7 favorites]


We just don’t know how.

I think I saw an opinion column that said it was the Millennials.
posted by GenjiandProust at 6:07 AM on September 15 [11 favorites]


Inflation of the number of centenarians likely does not change overall longevity estimates by country since there are so few, supposed and verified, to begin with. Blue zone countries would need to be systematically fudging most of their birth/death records for their longevity estimates to be incorrect.
posted by scantee at 6:19 AM on September 15 [3 favorites]


I suppose I might change my tune if I live to be 80, but I’ve never really understood why living to 110 is something we’re supposed to envy or emulate. It doesn’t seem all that great.
posted by Horace Rumpole at 6:20 AM on September 15 [29 favorites]


Agree 110%, Horace Rumpole.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:22 AM on September 15 [2 favorites]


Man. I read a lot of diet books as part of my hobby of being fat, and it's like actually infuriating that these fake old people have been held up as an example to criticize bad diets and health problems. "Have you considered eating a diet more like this person who died twenty years ago but is still collecting checks?" Like, the amount of guilt that gets fed to you because you're not eating like an Okinawan or Greek or whatever, it's really stressful and bad for you. And it all turns out to be bad science. Worse, dumb bad science! I ate a pop-tart for breakfast and will not be apologizing.
posted by mittens at 6:29 AM on September 15 [71 favorites]


So spending time lurking on the blue part of metafilter does not actually increase my life expectancy? Mizzled again.
posted by the primroses were over at 6:35 AM on September 15 [11 favorites]


I suppose I might change my tune if I live to be 80, but I’ve never really understood why living to 110 is something we’re supposed to envy or emulate. It doesn’t seem all that great.
Dan Buettner's "100 secrets of the Blue Zones" is pretty interesting on this topic. I think what he demonstrates is that those who reach an extreme age are more likely to do so when there are clusters of others who are at least in the same ball park and provide companionship, and support. I suspect most who do make it north of 100, do so because because they are having a life which is sufficiently enjoyable to not notice the passing of time so much. Having a community that works in such a way is worth copying for any generation.
posted by rongorongo at 7:02 AM on September 15 [10 favorites]


Is there evidence of these kind of record keeping problems with the U.S's local blue zone in Loma Linda?
posted by Selena777 at 7:09 AM on September 15 [3 favorites]


I suppose I might change my tune if I live to be 80, but I’ve never really understood why living to 110 is something we’re supposed to envy or emulate. It doesn’t seem all that great.

My grandmother is 96. She has lived a healthy lifestyle. Never drank, never smoked (although she breathed plenty of secondhand smoke from my grandfather), ate plenty of vegetables, walked every day.

She still is in good health. She can move around fine, still seems mentally well. But everyone she has ever known outside of immediate family are gone now. I think she would do well in a retirement community of some kind, to be around other people more, but she doesn’t want to.

It mostly seems like she is just waiting to die, at this point. It’s a depressing thing to say out loud, but she really doesn’t do very much except read her bible and watch local religious programming, and trash “news” from Sinclair media. Conversations with her mostly involve who is sick or has died, or talk about how people need to find God and blah blah religion.

Living to extreme old age doesn’t look very desirable to me, to be honest. My grandma could make more out of her life, for sure, but it would take a lot of personal effort.
posted by Fleebnork at 7:12 AM on September 15 [14 favorites]


I suspect that pure chance is the reason some people live to 100 and beyond. They didn't die in automobile accidents, they didn't contract serious diseases, or they simply won the genetic lottery.
posted by Pararrayos at 7:16 AM on September 15 [5 favorites]


It mostly seems like she is just waiting to die, at this point.

Much respect to your grandmother, but this sentence also describes people I know in their 30s. I think the enjoyment of life is an extremely subjective thing, and I'm sure a lot of us would love to live to be 100. Ironically, the lower expectations one has for life, my guess is the more likely a person would be to want to see it play out as long as possible.
posted by kittens for breakfast at 7:19 AM on September 15 [21 favorites]


She still is in good health. She can move around fine, still seems mentally well. But everyone she has ever known outside of immediate family are gone now. I think she would do well in a retirement community of some kind, to be around other people more, but she doesn’t want to.
We witnessed this with a member of my wife’s extended family who happened to live nearby. She made it to 107 but probably the last decade was ready to go. Some of it was declining eyesight and hearing but a lot of it was that social detachment. We knew her because a great-nephew’s generation was organizing regular visits and often stayed with us, but that was still visitors a few days a month rather than daily. For the rest, she was at the retirement community she’d moved into with her husband around the time he turned 70. By the end, she had made and outlived multiple generations of friends and was frankly burnt out on doing that again, and also somewhat done mostly being around old people.

I am not a fan of organized religion for multiple reasons but I do wish we had some kind of popular equivalent for frequent community-wife socialization. Something which would let people of all ages be familiar with each other as part of routine life rather than special occasion. I think this is going to be especially bad with the mid-20th high-carbon lifestyle as older people are trapped in suburbs with little to do or often not even safe places to walk, so there isn’t even the equivalent of sitting on the porch and talking with the neighbors and their kids probably live multiple hours away for economic reasons.
posted by adamsc at 8:02 AM on September 15 [15 favorites]


Your insurance premiums are based on this stuff.
Alternatively, our insurance premiums are based on researched data showing the absolute most that can be squeezed out of the majority of us, with the rest an afterthought. (This is what it feels like, no idea if that is actually true.)

By the end, she had made and outlived multiple generations of friends and was frankly burnt out on doing that again, and also somewhat done mostly being around old people.

This sounds horrible. No, would not want that. I don't have much close family so am in no danger of it, but it really sounds crushing.
posted by Glinn at 8:14 AM on September 15 [1 favorite]


Yeah my grandmother is 102 and moved back to her little house in Michigan permanently from her retirement community in Florida, in part, I think, because she'd outlived three or so generations of friends there. She has a daily helper and her niece and nephew live a couple blocks away and visit her every day (and do her grocery shopping, etc) so she has a decent amount of human contact, plus her kids call her daily, but there's a level on which she's still very isolated. She's in absolutely stunning health for her age but I think we are all - including her - just waiting for her to not wake up one morning. I don't know if she particularly wants to go another 7+ years.
posted by restless_nomad at 8:18 AM on September 15 [5 favorites]


So, my great-grandmother fits in this category- we thought she died at 102, when we went back to her village and actually dated when the year of the big natural events that dated her birth were, she turned out to be 104 when she died. But also, she didn’t have a “good diet” - people who fetishize this stuff are absolutely making stuff up. I think the actual answer may be that people who are poor and live with no medical care, the survivors just have better genes because everybody else dies. And that’s not really something you can or should replicate.
posted by corb at 8:37 AM on September 15 [9 favorites]


I really think a huge amount of the social emphasis on life span and longevity is, like religion, a rationale to get people to give their whole lives away to capitalism. If you can believe that taking good care of yourself, whatever that means, will enable you to have a good quality life up to 80, 90, or 100, maybe it’s worth putting all your hours and breath into making someone else wealthy. Never developing your own interests and talents, not participating in your community, neglecting your family, all in the hope of “some day,” after you retire.

So many people can’t retire now (or then), or die shortly after, because after a lifetime spent grinding, how do you reorient your priorities to your own personal, family, and community life? Probably better to live in a close knit, reciprocating community where you can be yourself, do more of what you like, and be really good to your family, even if you die at 50.
posted by toodleydoodley at 8:45 AM on September 15 [15 favorites]


I think this is going to be especially bad with the mid-20th high-carbon lifestyle as older people are trapped in suburbs with little to do or often not even safe places to walk, so there isn’t even the equivalent of sitting on the porch and talking with the neighbors and their kids probably live multiple hours away for economic reasons.

Yup, I've been saying this for years - unfortunately people like to live in denial about getting old, plus a healthy dose of "fuck you, figure it out yourself" Americana.

Already running into this with our parents back in the US. My MIL finally stopped driving this year due to some mild dementia issues. She is fortunate that my brother in law lives nearby to help, even with that she's really isolated and basically can't leave the house for literally anything without his assistance. There are no sidewalks, she can't even get to a damn grocery store.

My own parents are of sound mind and I think can still drive okay, but they are going to hit that point eventually. I have absolutely no idea what we'll do - moving nearby isn't possible without flushing my own career down the tubes (remote work is a luxury I don't get) and my sister isn't thrilled at the prospect of being their taxi service.

Honestly the whole thing has made me prioritize walkability in retirement of such a thing is even possible in the US. Or find somewhere else if that's what it takes.
posted by photo guy at 8:50 AM on September 15 [11 favorites]


Inflation of the number of centenarians likely does not change overall longevity estimates by country since there are so few, supposed and verified, to begin with. Blue zone countries would need to be systematically fudging most of their birth/death records for their longevity estimates to be incorrect.

Maybe, but from the article some of the blue zones don't do that well except in terms of number of centenarians.
Okinawa in Japan is one of these zones. There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead. The secret to living to 110 was, don’t register your death.

The Japanese government has run one of the largest nutritional surveys in the world, dating back to 1975. From then until now, Okinawa has had the worst health in Japan. They’ve eaten the least vegetables; they’ve been extremely heavy drinkers...

The same goes for all the other blue zones. Eurostat keeps track of life expectancy in Sardinia, the Italian blue zone, and Ikaria in Greece. When the agency first started keeping records in 1990, Sardinia had the 51st highest old-age life expectancy in Europe out of 128 regions, and Ikaria was 109th.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:58 AM on September 15 [5 favorites]


My 88 year old father in law moved in with us part time (but for long chunks of time, at a time... if that makes sense?). Anyway, the main takeaway I am getting from this experience is how important it is to have a hobby or hobbies.

He's still really sharp, but honestly he was never a super with-it sort of person. His wife died about five years ago. They had been together 60+ years (married when he was 18) and she was the do-er, she basically told him everything that he needed to do, and he did it. He provided for his family in union jobs, he quit drinking after a health scare around 40, stopped smoking earlier than that. A gentle man, never any violence verbally or physically. But he just coasted for 65+ years where his wife managed every aspect of his life. He did some housework, and wasn't necessarily lazy, but she was simply in charge of everything, every plan, every purchase, every trip, every choice. And now she's gone.

He has a bunch of adult children and thrives and seems happy and engaged when he's around them. But that of course is limited by their schedules and geography. He cannot drive anymore. So what does he have? Television and eating and sleeping. His sleep schedule is completely wack - staying up until 3 or 4am, half awake, half asleep, getting out of bed at 2 in the afternoon. And watches movies and goofy TV shows. Just whatever happens to be on a the time.

Thankfully he's not a Fox News guy. He';s a democrat and surprisingly liberal. But he relies on his adult daughters to run his life. He is constantly half awake and half asleep. All the time that he is "awake" he is literally falling asleep while sitting on a stool or a couch, even standing sometimes!

Again, when he engages with his children and his rapidly dwindling group of friends, he's loud, laughing, telling stories, having fun. (He had a ton of friends in his life... dozens and dozens, but they have been dying off over thee last 20 years. Plus, his wife entirely ran his social schedule). He loves seeing his grandkids and many great-grandkids. But most of his life is just a zombie existence.

No hobbies. No passtimes. He'll read a newspaper if it's in front of him. But it's all movies, TV shows, sitcoms, local news, over and over and over... as he falls in and out of sleep.

It's making me reassess my own lifestyle and making me realize I need to keep busy with hobbies. I do not look forward to ages 85+, but I'll probably feel different then.
posted by SoberHighland at 9:00 AM on September 15 [13 favorites]


My grandmother lived well into her nineties, and it was her church and Alex Trebek that kept her going. Seriously, the woman was a Jeopardy master. I'm glad she went before Alex did, because his death would have probably broken her heart.

More seriously, she expressed to me on a few occasions that the physical frailty can be dealt with, although it was frustrating. The toughest part of advanced old age, as expressed by many in this thread, is outliving not just your immediate family but the entire world she took for granted as a girl and young woman. She said to me once that as she aged, the memories of long dead relatives and friends had started to become far more real then the living people she interacted with.

Some of the more interesting conversations we had were when I asked her to recall the oldest people she knew as a little girl - these were people who had been born in the 1840s and 1850s. History is closer than we think.

Organized religion comes in for a lot of knocks on these boards, but from my experience my grandma's church did right by her to the very end, and gave her last years a lot of meaning and purpose. They organized visits from many parishioners and helped us (her family) out quite a lot. She died peacefully, singing hymns and praying, confident that she was going home to Jesus and to her parents and husband. I am glad she could depart in peace.

As for the rest of us, I think what many people really want is not to live til they're 110, but to live a vigorous life with their fitness and wits about them and have a quick decline at, say, 85. Years of managed decline does not seem appealing to me at all.
posted by fortitude25 at 9:17 AM on September 15 [21 favorites]


Main reason I intend to execute on my longstanding plan of living to 104 is exactly so as to achieve a state of decrepitude extreme enough to prevent the item at the bottom of my bucket list (acquiring an all-consuming addiction to pleasurable drugs) from getting in the way of anything else I might care to toss in there while still capable.

Second-deepest item in that bucket list, currently, is overcoming procrastination. I'll die when I get around to it.

And I'm already in the Internet blue zone, so there's that.
posted by flabdablet at 9:24 AM on September 15 [8 favorites]


Already there.

Outlived all of my family. Probably some distant nephews/cousins and such but never had any contact. A couple of friends left that I get together with every couple of months. Health issues had me (mostly) trapped at home the last couple of years but that's getting better.

We'll see.
posted by aleph at 9:43 AM on September 15 [13 favorites]


Previously: Was the oldest woman in the world a fraud?, about Jeanne Calment who supposedly lived to age 122. Or maybe not, maybe her daughter took over her identity. It's still contentious.

Knowing your own age and birthday with certainty is already a somewhat modern concept. Being able to verify someone else's age and birthday is nearly impossible if there's intentional fraud.
posted by Nelson at 9:49 AM on September 15 [3 favorites]


The idea that the Mediterranean diet is some second or third order byproduct of pervasive pension fraud is amazing enough, but the root cause of the huge market for fake Italian olive oil being fake Italian pensioners is just so incredible. The world needs some sort of Evil James Burke to get on top of this, to give us Connections but for organized crime.
posted by mhoye at 10:18 AM on September 15 [25 favorites]


Is the medical community relying solely on longevity figures when they push it, though or a variety of other health metrics?
posted by Selena777 at 10:19 AM on September 15 [2 favorites]


Life insurance isn't really affected by the population statistics - or even individual probability - of living to very old age. The component of life insurance which is a bet on longevity and accidents - you're betting premium dollars you'll die earlier, insurance company betting the death benefit you'll survive -- runs out in your 80s. Universal and whole life after that age pretty much is worth its investment value, and "term" life after that the premiums are more than the present value of the death benefit and really are designed for estate planning and tax purposes.

Health costs are an interesting issue. At a population level, people who live very long tend to have low levels of healthcare intervention until their final illness, and then die very quickly and (in healthcare terms) cheaply. If they were paying premiums, an insurer would call someone you expect to live to 104 to be a very good risk. Even in health systems in which people of retirement age really aren't paying insurance premiums -- which is true for the vast majority of people -- the cost burden of a 75 year old who will have $2,000 a year in care costs for 30 years and $25,000 in final illness costs in thirty years, versus someone who has $10,000 a year in care costs for five years and then $1 million in costs from 80 to 85 as they slowly spiral down to death in cardiac, respiratory and infectious diseases and CRC costs. If it turns out that your projected final illness for your super-senior is at 98 and not at 104, you are even more ahead with that person versus the average person.
posted by MattD at 10:34 AM on September 15 [10 favorites]


Why don't they just put them in an MRI machine and count the rings?
posted by axiom at 1:06 PM on September 15 [13 favorites]


My granny was born in 1892 and lived on (and on) in Dover, England. She was 16 when Louis Blériot landed near the castle having made the first heavier-than-air crossing of La Manche; she was only 77 when Neil Armstrong made his one small step. So she lived in 3 centuries, as we tally them, and saw some tech changes. She stopped cooking at 103 after a small kitchen accident and passed her pinnie on to her son who learned to cook for the both of them when well into his own pension. On the other side my father's granny was born in 1860 and lived to 103.
The best recipe for longevity was "I never smoked, drank or went with a woman . . . until I was eight" source forgotten.
posted by BobTheScientist at 1:42 PM on September 15 [3 favorites]


Yes!!! Thank you! Blue zones is a fucking cult that took over my town!!!
posted by Tesseractive at 2:13 PM on September 15


My grandma could make more out of her life, for sure, but it would take a lot of personal effort.

Let me tell you flat out, it's a lot easier to be Jane Fonda, 87, looking good, being busy and involved, if you have money. You have personal trainers that keep you moving, can afford frequent massage and doctor's visits, have a cook that will feed you enjoyable, tasty, healthy meals, can afford to travel and hire someone to travel with you, can afford extensive (and expensive) hobbies, theater and music tickets, ball games or whatever, can afford household help that will do the daily chores to allow you energy to put toward doing other things--don't tell me money can't nudge you a lot closer to happiness.

Some people quit living at 30. Some people just don't feel well enough, either physically, mentally, or emotionally, to engage with life. But many would be much happier with enough money to do things.
posted by BlueHorse at 2:22 PM on September 15 [17 favorites]


On the flip side to Blue Horse's comment: my great-grandparents died at older ages, and in better shape, than their daughter (my grandmother), and I honestly chalk it up to their lack of money. My grandparents were relatively wealthy by the time my grandmother got to old age, and she was able to outsource cleaning and gardening, buy nice prepared foods at fancy grocery stores, etc. She started to go downhill in her early 80s, was in assisted living by 83, and died at 90. Meanwhile, her parents stayed in their house until my great-grandfather died at 94; my great-grandmother moved into assisted living shortly thereafter and only lasted about two years. They had to do everything themselves -- yard work, cooking, cleaning, house maintenance, etc. I'm sure they got some help from neighbors, and certainly they
slowed down in their late 80s / early 90s, but they were scrubbing their bathtub and mowing the lawn until the very last years of their lives. Maybe this is all bunk, and my grandma died earlier for other reasons, but I've taken it as a reminder to stay as active as possible into my older years.

Edited to add: I forgot to mention that my great-grandparents basically consisted on fried baloney, white bread, potato, and meatloaf. Good genes, I guess.
posted by leftover_scrabble_rack at 4:09 PM on September 15 [4 favorites]


There was a Japanese government review in 2010, which found that 82% of the people aged over 100 in Japan turned out to be dead.

I recall hearing of one of these stories, where it turned out the family covered up grandfather's death so they could continue to cash his social insurance checks.

I have a notion of an AI enhanced phone hoaxing it's dead owner is still alive to keep the data plan going.
posted by rochrobbb at 5:39 PM on September 15 [4 favorites]


I really think a huge amount of the social emphasis on life span and longevity is, like religion, a rationale to get people to give their whole lives away to capitalism.

This comment messed me up. Great work, and you aren't wrong, but it hurts to hear. What else do I have?
posted by Literaryhero at 6:59 PM on September 15 [4 favorites]


I find some of the comments baffling even as I accept them. Blue zone living is basically lot of plants, some pasta and potatoes and bread, some fish, some lean meat, legumes, red wine (also debunked), stay active, and interact with friends right? Olive oil? Maybe my sense of diet is off but is this a terrible hardship? I know it can be expensive but it’s not like some wild keto or super low calories thing? And my understanding is there’s American data on eating this way too.

Like…I support the odd pop tart too; I never heard you can’t have one. But is there some blue zone version that’s not chill?

My cardiologist, who did supply pamphlets on the Mediterranean diet, told me my diet was fine (it’s a bit more vegetarian-leaning but includes pie and chips from time to time), my weight even at the higher end of the (yes stupid) BMI normal range is fine, and quote “aim for 80% healthy food, that’s pretty good.” (This was not about eating to 80% full, it was like, poutine once in a while isn’t the deciding factor.)

I guess I’ve been influenced by the Lebanese breakfast I had today because it was awesome.
posted by warriorqueen at 9:06 PM on September 15 [2 favorites]


My mother turns 90 and is in her own house, doing 2-3 hours most days in the garden. She reacted very badly to the last time she had general anaesthetic, so despite needing a hip replacement, puts up with the discomfort. Her spine is in poor shape but the garden builds her core strength, and she walks most days for a couple of kms doing errands, going to church, what have you.

Her podiatrist is half a block away opposite the dental surgery (the multiple successor dentist, the previous multiples retired) next to the pathology collection service and two blocks from her doctor (also multiple successor). Two excellent coffee shops between the podiatrist and the doctor, a supermarket and bakery across the road.

This is her community and it is the community that she made a major effort to nurture. For about fifteen years, she was the head of the Residents Group, turning up at every council meeting, putting in submissions about the developments in the area. She collected signatures to limit large scale development, lobbying for adaptive use as professional offices, ensuring public toilets and accessibility was part of any development, and that footpaths had shading and trees.

So when she tells me how "lucky" she is to live in her community, I remind her of the phone calls she made to me, asking whether she should put her house in my name, because she was being sued for libel and defamation in the disputes around development. This community did not happen by accident; it happened through effort, my mother's and others.

If there are "Blue Zones", I think they will be communities where effort goes into supporting and nurturing social connections. Which may include a healthier diet, as you swap your excess lemons for someone's zucchinis.
posted by Barbara Spitzer at 12:19 AM on September 16 [13 favorites]


warriorqueen, yes, some bad longevity statistics don't discredit the Mediterranean diet, when the term these days is mostly used as a shorthand for a particular diet pattern. I was a registered dietitian and the thing is it's a lot to ask patients to eat:

- lot's of vegetables
- less meat and more fish and beans as a protein source
- non-tropical plant oils like olive oil instead of animal fats and solid plant oils
- replace "white" carbs with whole grains as often as you can
- fruit for dessert instead of cakes and candy
- no amount of alcohol is healthy, yep, the studies on alcohol in moderation have indeed been debunked
- also don't take this to disordered eating levels by denying yourself party foods in social and celebratory situations or by categorizing all foods into virtuous or evil

Saying something like "Mediterranean diet" paints a broad picture in most folks' minds that's easier to discuss than all these myriad little rules. And we (dietitians, not your physician unless they have a special interest in diet) usually have a bunch of more diverse culturally appropriate examples that follow the same idea. So for instance there's an African diaspora diet that includes traditional foods of the African diaspora (so many tasty greens!) that follows all those guidelines above. And there are ones for various other cultures as well.

Because most traditional diets were pretty healthy compared to what we eat today. Even the Japanese example: the modern Japanese diet is a lot of fried and convenience foods like everywhere else, but traditionally meals were a bowl of rice, miso soup, fish, and some vegetable sides. The Japanese don't eat that way anymore, and their rates of chronic disease are going up.

And "healthy" here is not defined in terms of who lives the longest, but which dietary patterns result in lower rates of cardiovascular disease, cancer, etc., based on the enormous body of evidence that we have now. There's a lot to be said about problems with nutrition research, which is extremely difficult to do well. But the bigger problem is with the media's need to always pick out the most sensational studies while ignoring the foundation of evidence that's built up over the years in support of the guidelines above -- guidelines that are not in any way sexy or exciting (unless you are steeped in the literature and understand the underlying mechanisms).
posted by antinomia at 1:30 AM on September 16 [14 favorites]


Why don't they just put them in an MRI machine and count the rings?

Too expensive. Simple core sample achieves the same thing at much lower cost.
posted by flabdablet at 1:38 AM on September 16 [6 favorites]


antinomia: I think a lot of this comes down to businesses being focused on selling more product, whereas most traditional diets simply didn’t have enough surplus for the average person to stuff themselves on a regular basis. I think it was at least 20 years after the first time I heard the term “Mediterranean diet” before I read that the studies were started right after WWII when portion control wasn’t a choice for most people.

I’m reminded of the time my grandfather told me that he only ate beef a couple of times a year growing up when dairy farming-cousins culled the herd and how weird that sounded to a kid growing up in 20th century America where overflowing supermarkets was touted as a symbol of why our side of the Cold War deserved to win. I’m not sure how we roll that thinking back but I suspect we’re going to need to figure that out fast as climate change starts cutting into agricultural production globally.
posted by adamsc at 5:13 AM on September 16 [6 favorites]


Yeah, I'm not sure I expressed myself well.

But here, anyway, I consider the white carb laden, wonder bread, chef boyardee lifestyle a thing of the past. (My past too!)

I was looking for squishy white bread for an exotic treat for my kids* and the rows of commercial sliced bread were mostly what claimed to be whole grain (I know they're not exactly, but still) with the Wonderbread kind of high up on the back shelf. Pre pre-pandemic, like 2014, work breakfasts were still bagels and muffins but since going back to the office I haven't seen those or too many doughnuts; our one regular work meeting that featured food has a yogurt bar with plain yoghurt, plain vegan yoghurt, fruits and nuts/seeds and then a lonely bag of granola for the daring types.

Potlucks regularly feature quinoa salad and kale and chickpeas and fruit and veg platters. Olives and hummus - I would say hummus here is the default 'dip,' not the onion soup stuff we had growing up. The last conference I went to had not one but two vegan options per catered lunch, even if they did have deep fried cheese curds at the welcome dinner (but it was in Madison WI so I feel like the cheese was necessary.) Salmon seems like the most eaten protein at weddings. And at my summer camp where I was looking at kids' lunches - not to judge but just to make sure they could eat - I didn't see too many sandwiches on white and I saw a lot of hummus wraps and veggies and tofu and leftover veg sushi rolls. Plus curries and peas and rice and things.

This is a huge change from my grade 4 standard lunch of white bread, balogna, and french's mustard, maybe with a desultory piece of iceberg lettuce, corn chips, and apple or banana, and two cookies, or my 1994 wedding menu featuring Chicken Kiev.

It might be hyper regional -- my kids' Montessori served chickpea and potato curry and vegetarian roti and jerk chicken just because, well, Scarborough. ButI am really surprised to hear that there is still a perception that the Mediterranean diet -- which I agree is shorthand for 'less processed and fried' -- is really restrictive or a miracle cure or even, I don't know what the word is, unfun?

I guess what I'm saying is I have assumed that's more the default now and has been since my teens were young.

What I would think of as a fad "you will live forever" or weight loss diet is the "restrict calories as you age" people, or raw foods or intermittent fasting.

It's cool to be wrong, it's just - and I say this mildly - a bit mind-mending to hear that people here consider that a cult diet or even a weight loss one.

* we were trying chip buttys because yah, I take that 10-20% seriously :)
posted by warriorqueen at 6:43 AM on September 16 [1 favorite]


How much you hear about the Mediterranean diet and the way the advice is offered also depends heavily on how you look, both in terms of weight and also class.

Like I just got a handout about it too due to some fatty liver issues, and let me tell you I’ve found that sneaking in a mention of my Long COVID as early as possible in any interaction with the medical community makes things go a lot smoother because suddenly it’s not my “fault” that my BMI is what it is. Suddenly things are a lot less antagonistic.

So, that might be a big part of the difference.
posted by Gygesringtone at 7:11 AM on September 16 [6 favorites]


Definitely could be, Gygesringtone, it's a good point. I think by the time I was tagging along with my MIL who has gotten the shit sandwich from medical providers it was all about IF and keto so that may well have coloured my perceptions too.
posted by warriorqueen at 7:18 AM on September 16


I got the dietary advice because of cholesterol levels - I certainly didn't want to start statins so young. Eating less meat brought them down. The idea that I could have a healthier body in society as it exists now through my own actions probably makes me less likely to put it on the gears, but *shrugs*
posted by Selena777 at 7:31 AM on September 16


I really think a huge amount of the social emphasis on life span and longevity is, like religion, a rationale to get people to give their whole lives away to capitalism. If you can believe that taking good care of yourself, whatever that means, will enable you to have a good quality life up to 80, 90, or 100, maybe it’s worth putting all your hours and breath into making someone else wealthy. Never developing your own interests and talents, not participating in your community, neglecting your family, all in the hope of “some day,” after you retire.

So many people can’t retire now (or then), or die shortly after, because after a lifetime spent grinding, how do you reorient your priorities to your own personal, family, and community life? Probably better to live in a close knit, reciprocating community where you can be yourself, do more of what you like, and be really good to your family, even if you die at 50.


This theory doesn't add up. The main gist of longevity content is that you need to spend a huge amount of time taking good care of yourself, NOT making someone else wealthy. There is a big emphasis on mental health. The Blue Zone content specifically focuses on having a) having strong relationships and b) meaningful work….but by meaningful work it’s like, maintain the local shrine, or volunteer with your church.

The new hotness isn’t ‘lifespan’ it’s ‘healthspan’, with a focus on maintaining quality of life.

It’s definitely got an exploitative bent but it’s more along the lines of ‘make me, health influencer, rich’ instead of ‘make corporate overlords rich’.
posted by bq at 7:44 AM on September 16 [2 favorites]


Also the Mediterranean Diet thing - that’s based on lipid levels in regular aged people, not data from centenarians.
posted by bq at 7:46 AM on September 16 [2 favorites]


Sorry, hit submit too quickly. Med Diet use is supported by multiple placebo-controlled nutritional intervention studies, not just epidemiological data.

In my experience it’s the grocery stores in lower income areas that still heavily feature White Stuff Food. My store has Wall of White Bread.
posted by bq at 7:58 AM on September 16 [1 favorite]


“This theory doesn't add up. The main gist of longevity content is that you need to spend a huge amount of time taking good care of yourself, NOT making someone else wealthy”

I didn’t say I was possible. As the rest of my comment shows, it’s mostly not possible. My point was, that’s the rhetoric we’re living under. As a teacher, I worked 80 hours a week and spent a real portion of my salary on my students, meaning I didn’t save it or spend it on me. And when I got burnt out, my administrators wanted to know why I wasn’t managing my self care better.
posted by toodleydoodley at 9:37 AM on September 16 [1 favorite]


But also, she didn’t have a “good diet” - people who fetishize this stuff are absolutely making stuff up.

Yeah, for every centenarian who says they've lived long because they ate well and pray daily or whatever, you can also find one who says that they go through a fifth of Scotch and a half a box of cigars every month.

It's a crapshoot.
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 9:45 AM on September 16 [1 favorite]


The key to living for a very long time is making sure that the first thing you do after every sleep is wake up.
posted by flabdablet at 9:55 AM on September 16 [4 favorites]


I suspect that pure chance is the reason some people live to 100 and beyond. They didn't die in automobile accidents, they didn't contract serious diseases, or they simply won the genetic lottery.
posted by Pararrayos


Chance, and entropy, are the primary moving forces in our world.

Eventually, inevitably, they cross paths and seal our individual fates.
posted by Pouteria at 10:35 PM on September 16 [1 favorite]


« Older Every river flow is different   |   Native title claim spanning 95,000 square... Newer »


This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments