Motherland Will Always Betray You, Son
January 5, 2025 9:48 AM Subscribe
Transnistria (previously), a tiny breakaway region of Moldova beside Ukraine, has for more than 30 years stood apart, with support from Russian troops. As of January 1, Russia cut off natural gas passing through Ukraine to the West, affecting Transnistria, dependent on the Russian gas: Gas Cutoff Sends Shivers Through a Russian-Backed Breakaway Region (NYTimes gift link).
Slava Malamud, originally from Transnistria, writes about the circumstances: Motherland Will Always Betray You, Son:
Transnistria as a case study on the thankless fate of an imperial vassal
I'm pretty sure it was along the lines of Ukraine saying something like "Our unconditional requirement for continuing the natural gas shipment is that Russia gets the fuck out of our country", which feels like a fairly reasonable requirement to be making. I would be inclined to blame the breakdown in talks entirely on Russia at that point.
posted by notoriety public at 11:10 AM on January 5 [16 favorites]
posted by notoriety public at 11:10 AM on January 5 [16 favorites]
Gas wars: The Latest Bizarre Twist in Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine:
This was easy to miss, but did you know that Ukraine was still transporting Russian gas through its pipelines as of this week?posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 11:20 AM on January 5 [4 favorites]
Well. It is not anymore. And the whole bizarre reason why it was happening for so long is worth a closer look. Oh, and the fact that this somehow puts Russia’s hold on Transnistria in question just makes it all the stranger.
Ukraine chose to cut off the gas, not Russia. I think the post is wrong directly but the broader gist is correct, neither Russia nor Ukraine are that concerned about Transnistria and it's ~370,000 people.
Why Did Ukraine Halt the Flow of Russia’s Natural Gas to Europe?
Why Did Ukraine Halt the Flow of Russia’s Natural Gas to Europe?
Ukraine refused to renew an agreement that allowed Russia to send natural gas through a pipeline to Europe. ...That's the general context. This post is about Transnistria, about which the NYT article says:
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has warned for months that he would not renew the five-year contract ... Ukraine and its Western allies want to undermine Moscow’s ability to fund its war effort and to limit the Kremlin’s ability to use energy as leverage in Europe ...
Moldova, which also borders Ukraine, is probably the most affected European country. In December it declared a state of emergency amid fears that an end to supplies of Russian gas through Ukraine could endanger its main source of electricity: a gas-fueled power plant in the breakaway Russian-backed region of Transnistria. Officials said this week that electricity from neighboring Romania should allow Moldova to avoid an energy crunch.posted by Nelson at 11:33 AM on January 5 [3 favorites]
The energy company in the breakaway region told its customers on Wednesday that it would stop supplying gas for heating to private houses in cities, villages and towns. The company will provide gas for cooking “until the pressure in the network drops to a critical level,” it said in a statement on Telegram.
That Russia would risk hurting its own proxies in Transnistria, which has been occupied by Russian troops for more than three decades, is a measure of how the war in Ukraine has altered Moscow’s priorities.
Say what you will, the title of the Slava Malamud piece (and the FPP) is quite the opening salvo.
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:44 PM on January 5 [2 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 12:44 PM on January 5 [2 favorites]
I don't really want to sound like an accelerationist, but I'll make an exception here.
Transnistria has relied on remittances from sex workers in northern Europe for foreign currency, and in NL there were red light district closures because the police could not be sure the workers weren't under duress from pimps who knew where their family lived back hime.
Let the place collapse. Get this shit over with. Once that's done we can talk about Moldova joining the EU and NATO.
posted by ocschwar at 1:08 PM on January 5 [12 favorites]
Transnistria has relied on remittances from sex workers in northern Europe for foreign currency, and in NL there were red light district closures because the police could not be sure the workers weren't under duress from pimps who knew where their family lived back hime.
Let the place collapse. Get this shit over with. Once that's done we can talk about Moldova joining the EU and NATO.
posted by ocschwar at 1:08 PM on January 5 [12 favorites]
Now that their gas supply is cut off, what other leverage does Russia have over Moldova to not just retake Transnistria? Surely Russia doesn’t have any, you know, competent soldiers still stationed there.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:31 PM on January 5 [3 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 1:31 PM on January 5 [3 favorites]
I mean, there's one good reason to retake Transnistria for Moldova (national pride), and a lot of counter-reasons (rampant crime; per capita income a 6th of Moldovans; Russian-speaking supermajority; primary GDP based on illegal arms sales, illegal drug sales and human trafficking; massive Soviet and post-Soviet pollution).
West Germany, fairly wealthy, is still dealing with the economic results of reintegrating East Germany over 34 years ago, and they share a common language and centuries of common history and culture.
Dissolving the pariah state would definitely be a plus for everybody involved, instead of the limbo its in now, but there will be many consequences for generations to come.
posted by ivan ivanych samovar at 1:55 PM on January 5 [10 favorites]
West Germany, fairly wealthy, is still dealing with the economic results of reintegrating East Germany over 34 years ago, and they share a common language and centuries of common history and culture.
Dissolving the pariah state would definitely be a plus for everybody involved, instead of the limbo its in now, but there will be many consequences for generations to come.
posted by ivan ivanych samovar at 1:55 PM on January 5 [10 favorites]
Or the EU/NATO can preëmpt the misery by setting up a TVA analogue for Transnistria.
Not that big a place. Won't take that much money.
posted by ocschwar at 2:31 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
Not that big a place. Won't take that much money.
posted by ocschwar at 2:31 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
How ironic would it be for another country to send hundreds of thousands of refugees to Russia?
posted by 1970s Antihero at 2:39 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 2:39 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
Not going to happen. The "Romanian nationalists" will inflict a 6x increase in wages on their victims. And that's before the EU steps in to help.
posted by ocschwar at 2:47 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 2:47 PM on January 5 [1 favorite]
The fact that Ukraine played by the rules and waiting for the contract to run its course instead of shutting it down the minute Russia invaded says a lot about how important this connection was to their European allies. This could also push Moldova even closer to Romania.
The Transnistrian goal is to be a Russian exclave. Which has me wondering - how has Kaliningrad fared during the invasion of Ukraine? They're surrounded by the EU so is there any chance of them getting cut off from things like gas pipelines? Is Russian going to start having to ferry in even more of their needed supplies?
posted by thecjm at 6:53 PM on January 5 [3 favorites]
The Transnistrian goal is to be a Russian exclave. Which has me wondering - how has Kaliningrad fared during the invasion of Ukraine? They're surrounded by the EU so is there any chance of them getting cut off from things like gas pipelines? Is Russian going to start having to ferry in even more of their needed supplies?
posted by thecjm at 6:53 PM on January 5 [3 favorites]
Gazprom has a transit agreement to Kaliningrad for gas via Lithuania that runs to the end of 2025. After that it will have to be shipped LNG only. The Baltic states also plan to sever electricity links from February. All three barred gas imports from Russia earlier in the war. Kaliningrad was a net electricity exporter to that point so the issue seems likely to be whether Kaliningrad can get enough gas to both heat and generate power to meet it's own needs, plus whether it's grid will remain stable without balancing from it's neighbours.
posted by biffa at 2:46 AM on January 6 [3 favorites]
posted by biffa at 2:46 AM on January 6 [3 favorites]
Re: Kaliningrad, there's even a wiki article about it: Restrictions on transit to Kaliningrad Oblast.
TLDR: Lithuania tried to block sanctioned goods (including cement, coal, etc..) from passing to Kaliningrad -- which would be dangerously close to a blockade (which is an act of war). At least Russia interpreted it this way and said so. If you check the timelines in the article and read between the lines, you'll see that they weren't alone in this. The solution was classic EU rules lawyering (emphasis not in the original) :
posted by kmt at 3:00 AM on January 6 [1 favorite]
TLDR: Lithuania tried to block sanctioned goods (including cement, coal, etc..) from passing to Kaliningrad -- which would be dangerously close to a blockade (which is an act of war). At least Russia interpreted it this way and said so. If you check the timelines in the article and read between the lines, you'll see that they weren't alone in this. The solution was classic EU rules lawyering (emphasis not in the original) :
On 13 July the European Commission published an explanation for member states regarding the transit of goods from Russia to Kaliningrad, confirming the legality of Lithuania's actions.[13][14] The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania stated that they were following the recommendations and would check all goods as much as possible in order to make it impossible for Russia to violate the terms of the sanctions.[15][16]That's all, that's the end of the article. Make up your mind what happened in the background.
On 23 July Lithuania removed rail transit restrictions for Kaliningrad after the EU revised its sanction recommendations to only apply to road transit and not rail.
posted by kmt at 3:00 AM on January 6 [1 favorite]
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Did you mean Ukraine halted the gas flow? I believe that is what happened.
posted by gwint at 11:00 AM on January 5 [5 favorites]